Trump has a good a chance to win in 2020 and if he does he has the chance to nominate a total of 4 supreme court justices. If Democratic Socialist rhetoric does scare middle america and the republicans take a super majority and the presidency then every branch of government will be stacked against the left.Support the show (http://timcast.com/donate) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
| Speaker | Time | Text |
|---|---|---|
| We're at a crossroads in this country. | ||
| We have two choices. | ||
| The Democratic Socialists are on the rise. | ||
| Rhetoric from mainstream Democrats is moving further left, calls for abolishing ICE, the expansion of the Democratic Socialists of America and their candidates winning slots in Congress and at the state level. | ||
| On the other side, we have Donald Trump and the Republicans. | ||
| There's questions as to whether or not there will be a blue wave in November. | ||
| If Trump wins a second term, there's also a strong possibility he could get two more opportunities to nominate Supreme Court justices. | ||
| So today, let's take a look at some of the data and try and answer the question, what will happen in the future based on what's happening now? | ||
| Things could change, but at current levels, I feel like there's a good reason to believe the future could be conservative. | ||
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| First a simple and important little bit of information. | ||
| On April 19th, 2018, CNN reported Trump declared he's running again. | ||
| Many Republicans aren't ready to back him. | ||
| And this second sentence doesn't matter. | ||
| All that matters is that Trump has said he will run for re-election. | ||
| So the question arises, as of today, do we think Donald Trump could win a re-election? | ||
| In my opinion, the answer is yes, based off of some simple data points. | ||
| First, let's take a look at the Trump favorable, unfavorable polling aggregate from RealClearPolitics. | ||
| They say that 53.3% find him unfavorable and 41.7% find him favorable. | ||
| That would suggest the majority of people who have been polled, and this is an aggregate, so it's a lot of people, do not like Donald Trump. | ||
| However, this is actually good for Donald Trump, and I'll explain very simply. | ||
| If 41.7% find him favorable today, How many people found him favorable on the night he was elected? | ||
| From October 27th up until November 9th, Donald Trump's unfavorable rating had a 23-point lead. | ||
| Today, he is even more favorable by almost 10 points. | ||
| That means, today, Donald Trump is viewed more favorably than during the election when he won. | ||
| Now, RealClearPolitics uses an average of polls, and we can see here that the lowest favorable rating out of all the polls is 39, and that's from PPP. | ||
| Interestingly, though, even though this shows the lowest number, it's still 6 points higher than when Donald Trump was elected. | ||
| If Trump could win with 33.9% favorability, I'd have to imagine that he could win with 41.7. | ||
| But things do change, right? | ||
| I'm basing all of this off of today. | ||
| The election's not happening for another about two years. | ||
| So let's look at some other data points that suggest the U.S. | ||
| might actually end up more conservative. | ||
| This is a story that I covered yesterday on my second channel, but I'm going to bring it up today because I find it relevant. | ||
| Democrats are losing the millennial vote and need to change message. | ||
| The story starts by pointing out that people do generally find Trump to be mentally unfit, dishonest, or racist. | ||
| And Pew Research shows there's a generational gap in American politics. | ||
| That millennials have by far the most negative views of Trump, having tumbled from a 64% job approval rating for President Obama to a dismal 27% approval rating for Trump. | ||
| But, there is an interesting data point. | ||
| It says, today, as many white millennials support the Democrats as the Republicans, each 39%. | ||
| Two years ago, Democrats had a 14% lead over Republicans among white millennials. | ||
| The trends are even more pronounced among white male Millennials. | ||
| Today, this group favors the Republicans over the Democrats by a staggering 11%. | ||
| In 2016, Democrats led white male Millennials by 12%. | ||
| White people are around 62% of the United States. | ||
| So, white males are one of the largest demographics, and if they're moving Republican, that does spell trouble for the Democrats. | ||
| It doesn't mean it's a guaranteed shoo-in, but it does mean that Republicans are gaining more support, and I think the answer is kind of obvious. | ||
| Rhetoric from the far left and the Democrats has repeatedly been pretty anti-white male, or very heavily critical of white males. | ||
| And regardless of what your opinion is on the whole idea of white privilege and male privilege, you have to recognize that criticizing a group of people and challenging them, or insulting them, degrading them, It's going to get them to move in the other direction. | ||
| And not for something significantly less data-driven, but more personality-driven, which I think does have merit in the debate. | ||
| From Reason, Michael Moore thinks Donald Trump will win the 2020 presidential election. | ||
| Michael Moore thinks he knows who will win the presidential election, appearing last Friday on HBO's Real Time with Bill Maher. | ||
| The filmmaker declared that Donald Trump would be re-elected. | ||
| Moore begged the audience to take his prediction seriously, saying that otherwise America could turn into an episode of The Handmaid's Tale. | ||
|
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You have to listen this time, because he is going to win the 2020 election. | |
| Even if he doesn't, he's not going to leave. | ||
| That's what you have to understand. | ||
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He won't leave after the second term if he doesn't have to. | |
| Nobody stops him. | ||
| It's obviously a little early for any certainty about the next presidential race, but Moore at least has a track record he can point to. | ||
| In October 2016, he declared on Meet the Press that Trump could defeat Hillary Clinton, calling the Republican a human Molotov cocktail that Rust Belt voters were preparing to throw at a political system they once supported. | ||
| Later in the month, Moore predicted Trump's win during a promotional event. | ||
| He said, I know a lot of people in Michigan that are planning to vote for Trump, And they don't necessarily agree with him. | ||
| He explained to the audience. | ||
| Trump's election is going to be the biggest FU ever recorded in human history and it will feel good. | ||
| And Michael Moore was right. | ||
| No one thought Donald Trump was going to win. | ||
| Some outlets were giving him a less than 1% chance of victory around when polls started opening. | ||
| Even mainstream outlets were saying 10 to 13% and then he won. | ||
| People have repeatedly discounted Donald Trump. | ||
| Now, Michael Moore made this prediction. | ||
| I don't think Michael Moore actually thought Trump was going to win. | ||
| I think Michael Moore knew that all of the talk about Hillary Clinton being a shoo-in and a guarantee was going to result in Democrats staying home thinking they won and didn't have to do anything. | ||
| I think the reason Michael Moore is saying today that Donald Trump will win in 2020 is because he wants to make sure the left knows if you don't get up and you don't go out and vote, Trump will win. | ||
| So, why do I think the future will end up conservative? | ||
| There's a few reasons. | ||
| Going off of this data, and listening to what even Michael Moore is saying, it's possible that Trump really will win. | ||
| And with the encroaching rhetoric of the far left from the Democratic Socialists of America saying things like no borders in no nations, personally, I'd have to imagine that's going to scare American moderates away from the Democratic Party. | ||
| Keep in mind, Bill de Blasio, Elizabeth Warren, Kirsten Gillibrand are all saying abolish ICE. | ||
| And you have to wonder what that really means. | ||
| Bernie Sanders refused to say abolish ICE, and he was heavily criticized for it. | ||
| Some people have said, come on, no one's really saying we should abolish borders, no one really wants to get rid of immigration enforcement. | ||
| Actually, that's not true. | ||
| Don't take this as confirmed 100% fact, this is just a bit of conjecture. | ||
| But this Twitter account, DrSexDracula, who is seemingly not that important in the political landscape, they do have 15,000 followers. | ||
| They said, what abolish ICE does not mean. | ||
| Revert ICE back to INS? | ||
| Reform ICE. | ||
| New managers, same ICE. | ||
| ICE is sponsored by Doritos now and they have little rainbow pride flags on their uniforms. | ||
| More female border guards. | ||
| What abolish ICE means? | ||
| Actually effing abolish ICE. | ||
| This tweet has 4,575 retweets as of the filming of this video. | ||
| Almost 15,000 likes. | ||
| That doesn't mean that all of the mainstream Democrats are going to believe this. | ||
| It doesn't mean that Kirsten Gillibrand and de Blasio, who are saying abolish ICE, are actually saying get rid of immigration enforcement. | ||
| There is a misconception. | ||
| Many people keep saying ICE has only existed since 2003. | ||
| It's a new thing. | ||
| If we survived without it before, why can't we do it now? | ||
| Well, as pointed out in this tweet, they said they do not mean revert ICE back to INS, the Immigration and Naturalization Service. | ||
| That's how we functioned before 2003. | ||
| We had immigration enforcement. | ||
| We changed the name and moved it to the Department of Homeland Security. | ||
| In an op-ed in the New York Times on June 30th, Michelle Goldberg said the millennial socialists are coming. | ||
| In it, she talks about several different people who have been endorsed by the Democratic Socialists or are members and have actually won. | ||
| In May, three young progressive women running for the state legislature in Pennsylvania, each endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America, won decisive primary victories over men heavily favored by the political establishment. | ||
| Two of the women, Summer Lee, 30, and Sarah Inamorato, 32 ousted incumbents, the distant cousins, Dom Costa and Paul Costa, members of the iconic Pennsylvania political family. | ||
| Democratic socialists are winning, and they have pushed rhetoric like no borders, no nations, and abolish ICE. | ||
| And again, it's not just create a different kind of immigration system, they're flat out saying get rid of immigration enforcement. | ||
| So let's think about what's going on with the Supreme Court. | ||
| What will the future look like? | ||
| What could possibly happen if this rhetoric from the far left does push people towards conservatives? | ||
| If more people favor Donald Trump today than when he was elected, and he does win, what could happen? | ||
| Well, one of the most important things, I think, is the Supreme Court. | ||
| Anthony Kennedy, 81, is retiring. | ||
| And Donald Trump has an opportunity to appoint a new Supreme Court Justice. | ||
| Right now the Senate is controlled by the Republicans, in which case, when they vote, it is likely whoever Trump nominates will win. | ||
| But what happens in the next six years if Trump does win a second term? | ||
| I believe it's possible that he will actually nominate potentially. | ||
| Two more Supreme Court justices. | ||
| Some justices that should be of concern to the left. | ||
| Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Stephen Breyer. | ||
| Both considered to be liberal on the court. | ||
| Ginsburg is 85 years old and Stephen Breyer is 79. | ||
| Think about what happens in the next two years. | ||
| Ruth Bader Ginsburg will be 87. | ||
| What if Trump wins a second term? | ||
| She will be 91 years old in the final year of Donald Trump's presidential term. | ||
| Do you think she will still be a Supreme Court justice at 91 years old? | ||
| It's entirely possible, but keep in mind, she has had medical issues in the past. | ||
| And Stephen Breyer, who was 79, will be 85 in the last year of Trump's second term, if he does win. | ||
| That means, if Trump wins a second term, I personally believe there's a very good chance Trump will have a total of four chances to nominate Supreme Court justices, and Ginsburg and Breyer are considered liberal. | ||
| If we lose these Supreme Court justices, and Trump is in office, then he will appoint conservatives, and the Supreme Court justice will be lopsided to a point where it will almost entirely vote conservative. | ||
| Many people on the left keep doubling down, saying we need more left-wing politics. | ||
| Ocasio-Cortez won, therefore we should double down and we should focus on these policies. | ||
| And then you've got mainstream Democrats saying, don't do that, you will lose. | ||
| And I think it's fair to say that's true. | ||
| Michael Moore seems to think that Donald Trump is going to win. | ||
| Personally, I do too. | ||
| Keep in mind, as of right now, based on the information I have, that's my opinion. | ||
| A lot of the things I've shown you outside of the stats, it's all just my opinion. | ||
| Today we're doing a long conjecture episode where I'm just looking at the data points and giving you how I feel about it. | ||
| I could be entirely wrong and it will be a hoot to me come 2020 when I was so devastatingly wrong I look back on this video and laugh about it. | ||
| It could be that come November there is a blue wave and I was dead wrong and people do embrace the democratic socialists of America. | ||
| But if you were to ask me, I think the DSA rhetoric is too far. | ||
| I think a lot of activists are pushing this rhetoric, and I think a lot of middle Americans and default liberals who are following this narrative don't really understand what these policies mean for the most part. | ||
| People often confuse open borders with no borders. | ||
| Open borders just allows you to easily walk through a checkpoint. | ||
| Where they can rubber stamp your passport. | ||
| No borders means you literally walk wherever you want. | ||
| But let me know what you think in the comments below, and we'll keep the conversation going. | ||
| It is Independence Day. | ||
| I hope you all go out and enjoy a cheeseburger, hot dog, or veggie burger, or maybe some chicken. | ||
| Whatever it is you like. | ||
| Throw some corn on the cob on the grill, enjoy it with your friends and family, or if you're more of a solitary kind of person, play video games to your heart's content. | ||
| This is America. | ||
| We have our freedoms. | ||
| We have the right to pursue happiness, and I hope you all go out and do that today. | ||
| But also, comments! | ||
| Let's keep the conversation going. | ||
| You can follow me on Twitter at TimCast. | ||
| Stay tuned, new videos every day at 4pm. |