Timcast IRL - Tim Pool - WE'RE GOING IN | Timcast IRL #1461 w/ Austin Rodgers & Adam Johnson Aired: 2026-03-04 Duration: 02:05:10 === Body's Built to Repair (06:23) === [00:02:31] The likelihood that we put boots on the ground is unfortunately going up, at least I think, in the general opinion. [00:02:39] It's not guaranteed. [00:02:40] We don't know for sure. [00:02:41] But the Democrats have come out saying they are fearful based on what they are saying that the likelihood we are going to put boots on the ground is increasing. [00:02:47] Whether or not we trust them, I don't know, but I got to be honest, I don't think Democrats are actually fearful of it. [00:02:51] I think they're talking out the side of their mouths, going like, oh no, I hope we don't have boots on the ground. [00:02:56] Wink. [00:02:57] Yeah, at the same time, Israel is calling up 100,000 reservists. [00:03:01] And the question there is: for what purpose? [00:03:04] Do you need 100,000 people active across the country? [00:03:07] Well, to be fair, there's probably ground operations in Israel they do need people for, but 100,000 is quite a bit. [00:03:14] And then there's the ultimate logic, which is: how do you guarantee that the regime you've, or I should say, the supreme leader that you've taken out and his leadership is not replaced by the exact same structure? [00:03:25] You can't unless there is some form of occupation. [00:03:28] So perhaps it won't be direct U.S. troops, but it seems incredibly likely this will be the outcome. [00:03:34] And that appears to be an ever-increasing opinion that people are having. [00:03:38] But again, we're going to see, and we're going to show you exactly what the Democrats as Blumenthal is saying. [00:03:43] I fear it's going to happen, as well as the information that we've been getting from Israel. [00:03:49] But when you factor in those fears, and I think, again, the general assessment and fears people have, with the fact that a U.S. base was just struck by Iran, and that a CIA facility was also just struck by Iran, and that they've been striking civilian targets and they've shut down the Strait of Hormuz. [00:04:08] If we don't get a handle on this quickly and actually stop their government and their capability to fight, which again, Trump says we've done largely, but if they're allowed to continue, it's going to cause severe economic crisis around the planet, which means, again, I think the general assessment is: how do you solve this unless you actually get people in to shut down those military capabilities? [00:04:30] So we got to talk about that. [00:04:31] But, my friends, there's much, much bigger news. [00:04:34] I know it's funny to say, right? [00:04:36] But in Texas, we got big elections happening right now, and we are all rooting for Brandon Herrera, who is 91% in the prediction markets to win. [00:04:45] And that's what we want to see. [00:04:46] And so we're going to be tracking those election results out of Texas. [00:04:49] It looks like Jasmine Crockett is going to lose. [00:04:52] She's got like 10% probability to win. [00:04:55] Yikes. [00:04:56] We're going to track those results around 9 p.m. [00:04:58] So stick around. [00:04:59] It's going to be a lot of fun. [00:05:00] Before we get started, we got a great sponsor for you, my friends. [00:05:02] It is qualia stem cells. [00:05:04] Indeed, not actually stem cells, okay? [00:05:06] But what your body needs to make better stem cells. [00:05:10] Can you guys remember a moment when your body just didn't heal like it used to? 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[00:06:39] Super cool. [00:06:40] And of course, my friends, don't forget Cast Brew. [00:06:42] I don't got it pulled up, but go to CastBrew.com. [00:06:44] We've got our Cold Brew glass bottles, Gold Brew Concentrate. [00:06:47] I really do recommend it. [00:06:48] And big news, pool water is coming back very soon. [00:06:52] We have aluminum pool water cans indeed. [00:06:56] So stay tuned for that. [00:06:58] Don't forget to also smash the like button, share the show with everyone you know right now. [00:07:02] Take that URL, take that link, whatever you got, and just post it all across social media if you want to support our work. [00:07:06] Really do appreciate it. [00:07:08] Joining us tonight to talk about this and so much more is Austin Rogers. [00:07:12] Hey, Austin Rogers, running for Congress in the second congressional district of Florida. [00:07:21] Good point. [00:07:22] From the Panhandle and for the Panhandle is our slogan. [00:07:26] And, you know, in my district, it matters that you know how to throw a cast net, that you know how to tie a fishing knot. [00:07:32] I know how to do that, but also have experience in Washington serving as chief counsel on Senate Judiciary Committee and serving in Senator Rake Scott's general counsel. [00:07:40] So not a swamp creature, but know the swamp, know firsthand how it's broken, and looking forward to fixing it. [00:07:47] Right on, should be fun. [00:07:48] Good time to join with all these politics and the war stuff. [00:07:50] So great to have you. [00:07:51] We have another man here. [00:07:52] Well, hey, Adam Johnson here, author terrorist and all-around nice guy. [00:07:56] I am also running for office, not Congress. [00:07:58] It is a Manatee County Commission, and I need your help. [00:08:01] You can go to voteadamjohnson.com, donate to my campaign. [00:08:04] It's looking really good. [00:08:05] We're outraising almost everyone in my race right now. [00:08:07] And I'm going back to the government through me in prison. [00:08:12] Oh, it's going to be fun. [00:08:14] Good to have you, brother. [00:08:15] Libby's here. [00:08:16] I'm hanging out. [00:08:17] Glad to be here with you guys. [00:08:18] I'm Libby Emmons. [00:08:19] I'm the host of the Pod Millennial, a new podcast. [00:08:22] Our episode with your favorite podcast host, Tim Poole, dropped today. [00:08:26] So I'm really excited about that. [00:08:28] And I hope you go check it out. [00:08:29] God, honor. [00:08:30] Hello, everybody. [00:08:30] My name is Phil Labonte. [00:08:31] I'm the lead singer of the Heavy Metal Man, All That Remains. [00:08:33] I'm an anti-communist and a counter-revolutionary. [00:08:35] Carter. [00:08:37] What's up, everyone? [00:08:38] Carter Banks here, holding it down button-wise and delivering a great show for y'all. [00:08:43] Tim Gluncher back. [00:08:44] Adam, good to see you again. [00:08:46] It's been a couple of couple weeks, maybe. [00:08:49] And then he lives here now. [00:08:51] Yeah. [00:08:51] Thanks for coming out. [00:08:52] All right. [00:08:53] Let's get it. === Talking Trump's Surgical Strikes (15:24) === [00:08:54] We got this story from the Washington Examiner. [00:08:55] Senate Democrat, quote, more fearful than ever of U.S. troop deployment to Iran after briefing. [00:09:02] And, you know, I'm going to say it outright. [00:09:05] I don't actually think he's fearful at all. [00:09:07] I think he got a briefing, and inside they're all going like, woo! [00:09:10] And they started jumping up on the table and clicking their heels and doing a tap dance. [00:09:14] And then they're like, stop, stop, stop, stop, calm down. [00:09:17] Poker face, poker face. [00:09:19] I'm just so worried about boots on there. [00:09:21] Let me play the video for you and stop goofing off. [00:09:23] Here you go. [00:09:24] I just want to say I am more fearful than ever after this briefing that we may be putting boots on the ground and that troops from the United States may be necessary to accomplish objectives that the administration seems to have. [00:09:44] But I also am no more clear on what the priorities are going to be of the administration going forward, whether it is destroying the nuclear capacity of Iran for simply the missiles or regime chain for stopping terrorist activities. [00:10:03] And I think the administration owes it to the American people to have briefings not just for members of Congress, but for the American public. [00:10:14] Nothing here should have been classified. [00:10:18] So I'm going to go ahead and say, yeah, I think there's probably going to be boots on the ground. [00:10:22] We have this from Times of Israel. [00:10:24] This is actually an older story. [00:10:25] It's from a few days ago. [00:10:26] IDF mobilizes 100,000 reservists amid war with Iran. [00:10:30] So we have all of these indicators. [00:10:32] And I think to the point made by Senator Blumenthal, they're getting these briefings. [00:10:37] And I believe what you're getting is they would never and they could never come out and just say, we hereby declare war in Iran and we're sending in the troops because there would be revolt instantly. [00:10:48] So what you need is some kind of chaos's belly and then after that, some kind of justification for furtherance of that war. [00:10:55] We have had a U.S. airbase struck. [00:10:58] We have had a CIA facility struck with the Strait of Hormuz closed. [00:11:02] All of these things are causing the water to boil. [00:11:05] And at a certain point, you are going to have, in my opinion, I'm not saying for sure, but if this continues like this, you will then get, you know, Heg Seth or Trump or someone coming out being like, you know, we lost so many American lives today. [00:11:19] It's unfortunate. [00:11:20] We may have no choice but to shut them down. [00:11:22] They've refused to surrender. [00:11:24] And that's when you start getting an escalation of boots on the ground. [00:11:26] Now, again, with what we've seen in Ukraine, they don't play that game anymore where they're like, deploy the troops. [00:11:31] They go, a coalition of volunteers have decided to go in. [00:11:35] Many of them, of course, are U.S. veterans who are being paid circuitously through various means. [00:11:40] But ultimately, the sources of the funding is the U.S. government and the U.S. isn't involved. [00:11:44] So I expect the possibility of special forces, limited U.S. military engagement With support from private military contractors, which are effectively U.S. forces. [00:11:58] However, I believe the most likely outcome is going to be IDF moving in and shutting this down. [00:12:02] And I think the attacks that we've seen and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are going to be the principal causes, or I should say, justifications. [00:12:12] Yeah, I mean, without objection. [00:12:14] My first reaction is on the declaration of war front. [00:12:18] That's something that, according to Article 1, Congress does. [00:12:22] And that is a speech act that invites all sorts of differences of legal rights. [00:12:28] You know, they can create a blockade that helps them control the economy. [00:12:33] So, you know, Article 2, the executive acting in a way that's addressing conflicts and hostilities is quite a different thing than a declaration of war. [00:12:45] I think Trump has shown with Venezuela and with Iran previously that he's been pretty surgical and that he's willing to take isolated sort of discrete movements to address the issue. [00:12:59] So I would argue that Venezuela was done as a surgical strike because of the war with Iran. [00:13:07] That we knew Iran was going to close the Strait of Hormuz. [00:13:10] And for those that don't know, I want to pull this up because I know there's a lot of people who, you know, they tune in because they want to watch general news and conservative level stuff. [00:13:19] And this can get particularly esoteric, as it were. [00:13:22] So let me grab the map here. [00:13:24] And here's the Strait of Hormuz. [00:13:25] Let me zoom out so you can see where it is. [00:13:27] Here's Iran. [00:13:28] Here's Saudi Arabia. [00:13:30] Then you've got Israel right here. [00:13:32] So the Persian Gulf is here. [00:13:34] You've got the Mediterranean. [00:13:35] Okay. [00:13:36] So European countries, Russia, Turkey, et cetera, transport goods to the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, for which they've been threatened substantially by Houthi rebels in Yemen, right here. [00:13:45] They've actually been bombing cargo vessels, and that's been disastrous. [00:13:49] You also have here the Strait of Hormuz. [00:13:51] Now, this is about, I believe it's a three-mile-wide stretch of water where 20% of global gas, oil and natural gas flows through. [00:14:02] And Iran has basically said, we're going to shut that down. [00:14:05] Right. [00:14:06] So Trump, he's probably sitting around with Du Bois, and they're like, should we go in and just bomb the Ayatollah? [00:14:13] And they probably said they're immediately going to shut the Strait of Hormuz and we're going to lose 20% of global oil trade and wipe out the global economy. [00:14:20] So Trump says, what can we do? [00:14:21] And they're like, well, yeah, look, I mean, Venezuela does have a massive chunk of that, and we could easily go in and knock out Maduro. [00:14:27] And so I believe the move against Maduro was actually a precursor to the strikes on Iran. [00:14:32] Yeah, I think that's exactly right. [00:14:34] In fact, and I was thinking about that today. [00:14:36] And then you also had Trump saying that he was going to work to open the Strait of Hormuz and have escorts of the tankers going through there. [00:14:45] Trump has been seizing tankers in the Caribbean Sea. [00:14:49] So that's been really interesting. [00:14:51] But this is what we have here is another WMD oil war, right? [00:14:56] I mean, that's what's going on. [00:14:58] Every time. [00:14:59] Every time. [00:14:59] And this is something that specifically MAGA voters were thinking they were voting for Trump against things like WMD oil wars. [00:15:08] Trump had said we were going to get out of Afghanistan. [00:15:11] Now Biden ended up doing that and did it wrong, and the Democrats were against it anyway. [00:15:15] But we have this situation. [00:15:17] And I think also what you have is the, I think that Trump's inability to prevent the war in Ukraine, to like get that stopped, has been really rankling. [00:15:29] And so he's going after as well Russian allies, right? [00:15:32] Like Venezuela, Iran. [00:15:33] These are Russian allies. [00:15:34] You'll notice like China and Russia have not been coming in to Iran's aid. [00:15:39] And this is a situation where Trump is going to go after all of the oil. [00:15:43] Now, I do think, just my last point, I do think that if it goes beyond the, you know, two weeks to stop the spread, I mean, two weeks to stop the Iran. [00:15:54] Four to five weeks that have been promised. [00:15:56] I think that's going to be a concern because this was a promise made now, four to five weeks, right? [00:16:01] I think this might be, that's all that MAGA has the stomach for. [00:16:06] Real quick, I just must stress the sheer absurdity. [00:16:10] That is, the neocons who hated Donald Trump and fought against him are screaming and shearing, and the populist right is losing it pissed off. [00:16:20] Yeah. [00:16:20] So just for accuracy, the strait is actually 21 miles. [00:16:24] Oh, 20 miles. [00:16:24] My bad. [00:16:25] Narrowest point. [00:16:26] And I have a bit of a different perspective than Libby. [00:16:29] I do think that this is actually the Venezuela and the Iran op is actually more about China than it is about Russia. [00:16:36] I think that it's about trying to limit China's ability to get oil. [00:16:42] China takes like 80% of the oil from Iran. [00:16:45] Like Iran's exports go basically directly from Iran to China because of sanctions and stuff like that. [00:16:50] And China doesn't mind going around the sanctions. [00:16:53] China is our greatest geopolitical rival right now. [00:16:57] Russia's not really, I mean, they show that they're a paper tiger. [00:17:00] They can't even beat little Russia. [00:17:02] Sure, but I mean, Trump wants that stopped. [00:17:04] I mean, he campaigned on stopping it within 24 hours, and it's been over a year. [00:17:08] I mean, he may want that stopped, but I don't think that this actually has as much effect on Russia as it does have on China. [00:17:15] And then as for like a long-term, the administration made a bad move by even putting any kind of timeframe. [00:17:23] When they were starting out and they were saying, look, this is open-ended. [00:17:26] This is going to be longer than just a strike. [00:17:29] This is something that might take a while. [00:17:31] That was probably the best messaging that they had at the time by talking about boots on the ground or talking about an end to it or whatever. [00:17:40] Then they put a time limit in people's heads. [00:17:43] They just recently started launching B-52s, which means they've taken out the vast majority of the threats because you put first B-2s when there's you put in B-2s, the stealth bomber when there's serious threats. [00:17:55] B-1s go in when the threats have kind of knocked down a little bit. [00:17:57] Then B-52s can fly at 55,000 feet, but those are easily taken out by air defense. [00:18:02] So essentially, the air defenses in Iran are gone now. [00:18:04] So Iran is notorious for being mountainous with heavy anti-air defense, and the U.S. relies on air superiority. [00:18:11] So this has been one of the principal issues with the U.S. moving in on Iran for the whole time. [00:18:18] So taking out those anti-air surface air missiles was the key to getting this job done. [00:18:23] I just want to say, I am, of course, as a millennial skeptical on these regime change wars, for which this absolutely is. [00:18:30] I'm going to piss off a lot of people when I say this, but I just love the masculinity of it. [00:18:35] Let me explain. [00:18:36] The reporting is that the Trump admin went to sit down. [00:18:40] I mean, figuratively, they had a meeting with the Iranian government who stated, we have enough fissile material for 11 bombs. [00:18:49] That's where we're starting the negotiation. [00:18:50] And Trump's response was, then I'm going to kill you. [00:18:54] And again, I'm not suggesting I support the strikes or the invasion of Iran. [00:18:59] I'm not a staunch anti-Trump. [00:19:02] I'm not, I don't believe, I would call it intervention skeptic, general anti-intervention. [00:19:08] And I think the issue is the potential for instability knocking out a big player like Iran and the blowback we could get. [00:19:13] That being said, there is just something satisfied in finally having a world leader who's going to, like Obama saying, we're going to give you as much money as you want. [00:19:22] We want to buy you into the system. [00:19:23] Just this is not the way you solve problems with ideological psychopaths. [00:19:28] I am not suggesting that it means we should be bombing them. [00:19:32] It's just there's just something visceral about Trump's response to the world stage. [00:19:39] Now, I'll give him a little pushback. [00:19:41] I wish he had that same decisiveness domestically, which he does not seem to show, especially with the riots and the protests and the Democratic Party. [00:19:51] Sometimes, not always, but you know, there, I said, it is what it is. [00:19:56] Well, hopefully, this doesn't result in massive regional instability. [00:19:59] You're not talking about JDAMs on protesters, are you? [00:20:01] No. [00:20:02] I'm talking about Trump coming out and saying, shut your mouth. [00:20:06] I'm talking about Trump going to Democrats and when the Democrats say, well, Trump, you know, the people have a right to protest. [00:20:13] And in Minnesota, and Trump goes, shut up, as in, close your mouth and stop talking. [00:20:17] I wish he would do that. [00:20:18] I wish he would do that. [00:20:20] Really? [00:20:20] Don't you think that that would just backfire? [00:20:24] If I did shut their mouth, they would all just whine more. [00:20:27] I just for the most part to say Trump has not been decisive on issues of these riots and the unrest as much as I would like him to be. [00:20:39] Yeah, I would have liked to have to be able to see that. [00:20:40] What more would you want him to do? [00:20:42] I would have liked to have seen 2022. [00:20:45] I don't think so. [00:20:47] I think Homan, I think they've generally cracked down. [00:20:50] Tom Homan said when he went to Minnesota that, you know, I'm paraphrasing, of course we had problems. [00:20:54] I wouldn't be here if that wasn't the case. [00:20:56] And I think the actual issue is Trump doesn't prioritize that. [00:21:02] Let's be completely real. [00:21:03] I think that when all this Minnesota is going on, this is the real plan. [00:21:07] Trump is working on a probably how much money do you think it costs to launch this operation? [00:21:13] I mean, a trillion dollars, insane amount of money. [00:21:15] And so someone goes to him and says, Mr. President, there's a bunch of angry leftists throwing snowballs and getting into fights. [00:21:20] He's like, I don't care, deal with it. [00:21:22] And so my principal issue is we get this super masculine, you know, like I could throw some shade at Trump. [00:21:31] He said, we knocked out their nuclear program in the 12-day war. [00:21:34] Well, obviously, the war was not 12 days. [00:21:36] It is now ongoing. [00:21:37] From that point on, history will look at it as one conflict. [00:21:40] Right now. [00:21:41] The strikes are about $100.5 billion total for since the start, yeah. [00:21:46] It's a lot less than I thought. [00:21:47] A lot less than the Somalis have taken. [00:21:49] A lot less than a trillion. [00:21:51] Well, anyway, my point is, you know, Trump's heavy priority has been an international engagement. [00:21:59] And I feel like he defers a lot of the domestic stuff to his administration, his staff. [00:22:04] And we have seen the far left basically getting away with murder, literally, in many states. [00:22:11] We see criminals being released. [00:22:13] And what the American people who support Trump want is not an incursion into Iran, which is why the base is split. [00:22:19] They want to see corrupt politicians be prosecuted, investigated, or otherwise. [00:22:23] And they ain't getting it. [00:22:25] They're not. [00:22:26] And again, I'm not saying it's been all bad. [00:22:27] I say generally net positive in a lot of areas. [00:22:30] But again, going in on full war with Iran is, I mean, this is a, if you're talking about political risk, Donald Trump being like, well, we could declare the Insurrection Act. [00:22:45] We could send in federal investigators to look into what's going on with, you know, Tim Waltz, the guy he hired, like a lot of various issues. [00:22:55] We could do that. [00:22:56] It's politically tumultuous, but I will bomb Iran. [00:23:00] It's like, wow, bombing Iran is tenfold more. [00:23:03] It's like more difficult to do in terms of decision-making than the domestic actions we want to see to hold accountable corrupt politicians and far-left extremists. [00:23:13] Well, he's running in line with what he did during the summer of love, right? [00:23:15] During COVID, he kind of left things to the states, the governors to manage their own things. [00:23:19] And we saw that turned out. [00:23:20] I mean, there were literally cities being taken over. [00:23:22] So he's been consistent in that. [00:23:24] I think when he ran in 24, and I mean, I voted for him in 16, 20, and 24. [00:23:29] And my biggest thing was I got five kids. [00:23:31] One is of draft age, two are approaching draft age. [00:23:33] I don't want new war. [00:23:35] And what he ran on mostly for 24, in my opinion, it was the economy. [00:23:39] And whether we like it or not, America is a war economy. [00:23:42] And doing these moves, making these maneuvers, this is how we get our economy back on track. [00:23:47] I, you know, I agree. [00:23:49] I think that if Trump pulls this off, people need to understand that U.S. hegemonic power means you live comfortably. [00:24:00] I just, these liberals. [00:24:03] And I can respect the libertarians in this regard because they know the facts and they'll make the arguments and say, I don't think it's worth it. [00:24:09] I think the end results often, like, I respect their arguments. [00:24:13] But the point is, the argument I have with libertarians on intervention is after the fact. === Different Ways of Occupation (14:37) === [00:24:18] The reality is we live very comfortably because we blow people up who don't get on the petrodollar or who threaten global trade routes, which is basically the deal we have to these countries. [00:24:29] Like, hey, you're going to trade oil. [00:24:31] It's going to be clean, safe, and you don't have to worry about it because we're going to send our aircraft carriers around and police the seas. [00:24:35] So when Iran is acting a fool, our customers are going, look, we use your currency for the oil that we're selling, but we can't even trade in this region without getting bombed. [00:24:44] And Trump's like, okay. [00:24:46] That's why it's so easy. [00:24:48] This is honestly why it is easier, in my opinion, for every administration to go to war, because domestically you can lose elections, you can lose power. [00:24:55] Foreign intervention, for the most part, Americans don't care about foreign policy. [00:24:59] Like, I know they polled people and they're mostly opposed to the strikes in Iran. [00:25:03] But I got to be honest, if I walk down the street and ask somebody, would you care more about the upcoming season, insert sport, or war with Iran, they'll go, who? [00:25:14] Yeah, people with an opinion on Iran should be forced to point it out on a map first before their opinion counts. [00:25:19] I think that's true for everything. [00:25:20] Yeah. [00:25:21] You know, so anybody who comes and like, I think it's wrong that we're attacking Iran, I'd be like, and where is it? [00:25:25] Yeah. [00:25:27] To your point earlier and to something that you said, I think Republicans, there's a strong contingent of Republicans that are rightly skeptical of forever wars, of oil wars, of foreign intervention. [00:25:41] But I think Trump has demonstrated time and again in this administration that he is being surgical. [00:25:48] He is not getting us embroiled in forever wars. [00:25:52] He is being quite isolated and surgical in how he's treating this. [00:25:56] And I don't know why we wouldn't trust him for this one. [00:25:59] Well, let's come to the story from the Times of Israel. [00:26:02] Iranian missile hits U.S. base at Al-Udid, no casualties. [00:26:06] Qatari Defense Ministry. [00:26:08] We also have, I don't know where the other story is. [00:26:11] There was a CIA, I thought I pulled up somewhere. [00:26:14] CIA facility in Saudi Arabia. [00:26:15] Oh, here it is. [00:26:16] I got it. [00:26:16] I got it. [00:26:16] It was just in the wrong order. [00:26:18] CIA station in Saudi capital hit in drone attack. [00:26:21] The strikes in Riyadh come as Iran Wyden's retaliation across the Middle East in the wake of U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign. [00:26:27] So far, Trump's surgical strike has just been Venezuela. [00:26:31] And yeah, you know, great job. [00:26:33] I don't think you can accomplish what you want to accomplish with Iran in the same way. [00:26:37] And so I think it's a fair argument to say, you know, we had just referenced Senator Blumenthal, who said, based on the briefing that I got, I am more fearful than ever that we'll have boots on the ground. [00:26:49] I defy anybody. [00:26:51] Tell me how we remove the Islamic fundamentalist government without occupation. [00:26:57] We just removed a broad swath of their major political and military leaders through one isolated operation. [00:27:07] And they voted in a new guy and they've got new guys appointed. [00:27:10] He's the son of the old guy. [00:27:11] Yeah, but I mean, there's also political upheaval going on. [00:27:14] Like, who knows how much staying power that's going to have? [00:27:17] But is the end result that we end up with an ISIS-like state of chaos and fervor? [00:27:22] I mean, Libya is a state of Libya, since NATO decided to go in and bomb the place and Gaddafi. [00:27:32] Yeah, you know, Hillary Clinton said we came, we saw he died. [00:27:34] Is that how we're going to leave? [00:27:36] Iran is not Libya. [00:27:37] It is not Afghanistan. [00:27:38] It is not Iraq. [00:27:39] You've got, what is it, 90 million people? [00:27:41] Something like that. [00:27:42] It is going to, like, if you create a power vacuum in Iran, the most brutal guy is going to win. [00:27:48] Again, so we can bomb their formal government and leadership, but you are going to get terrorist insurgent cells and they're going to start spreading all of those resources and weapons around like crazy and create massive instability unless someone goes in and occupies it. [00:28:03] That seems to be the most probable outcome. [00:28:05] The only problem with that is that we don't have a very good track record of doing that. [00:28:09] Of course, that's why everyone's concerned. [00:28:11] We don't have a very good track record of doing that with our president. [00:28:14] Neither does anybody. [00:28:16] Like, nobody has a good track record of doing that. [00:28:18] Yeah, well, I think a lot of these things aren't like each other, right? [00:28:22] They don't have to be like each other for us to not have to. [00:28:24] No, I understand, but I'm saying we have a different foreign nation. [00:28:27] No, I totally. [00:28:28] You know, and like not being able to figure out how we're supposed to lead them or get other people to lead them either. [00:28:33] Yeah, but I would say that's a thing. [00:28:35] Look at Afghanistan. [00:28:36] Afghanistan is a disaster now. [00:28:38] Yeah. [00:28:38] I would say the geopolitical landscape has fundamentally shifted during Trump's tenure. [00:28:43] Look at the Abraham Accords. [00:28:45] Look at UAE. [00:28:46] Look at a lot of the allies that we have who are doing business with us and who are being helpful. [00:28:51] I would say the landscape is entirely different and these situations aren't like the other. [00:28:57] Libya, all the ones that you alluded to are not the same as what we're dealing with now. [00:29:03] And we're dealing with a leader now, a president who actually has the stones, the fortitude to do the right thing. [00:29:13] So what's the right thing? [00:29:14] Occupying a foreign country? [00:29:16] I'm not suggesting that at all. [00:29:17] And I don't think that the Trump administration is. [00:29:20] But again, is it then bombing the leadership incessantly until they give up and stop appointing new leadership? [00:29:26] Well, I mean, that's essentially what they did in Venezuela was they took Maduro out and they said, okay, you're going to play ball with us now. [00:29:32] And I know that they're not the same. [00:29:34] Here's my other thing, too. [00:29:37] We have seen Trump act in the economy. [00:29:39] We've seen him act in dozens of different ways and in the course of a year be more effective than any president in my lifetime. [00:29:48] Why wouldn't we trust him? [00:29:49] Why wouldn't we trust Mark Orubio? [00:29:50] Why wouldn't we trust the regime that we have in place who is proven unequivocally to be effective? [00:29:56] Phil makes a super good point. [00:29:59] They are the government. [00:30:01] And I think they're here to help. [00:30:03] But it's not a question of Trump or Ruby. [00:30:05] It's a question of the effectiveness of regime change in general, which for the past 50 years we have seen utter failure on. [00:30:12] I mean, we failed in Korea to a large degree. [00:30:15] We failed in Vietnam, you know, after the French failed. [00:30:19] I'll give some credit to South Korea, but we certainly haven't unified the Koreas, and that's largely due to the conflict with China and China's support for North Korea. [00:30:25] There's all, I mean, you know, there's all kinds of things and all of these things. [00:30:30] Real quick, regime change in Japan after World War II, we turned those samurai into like ladyboy cat girls. [00:30:39] Businessmen. [00:30:40] No, not even, not even salarymen. [00:30:41] Getting drunk in the street. [00:30:42] They don't have kids anymore. [00:30:44] And they want, and South Korea and Japan both have an obsession with American culture. [00:30:50] No, I'll give Japan a little bit more than that. [00:30:51] It is pretty awesome. [00:30:52] Korea is pretty creepy. [00:30:53] I got to be honest. [00:30:54] I'll have to say that as a Korean. [00:30:55] I've never been there. [00:30:56] Have you been? [00:30:56] It's amazing. [00:30:57] I love the place, but they all get plastic surgery to look like white people instead of just looking like Koreans. [00:31:02] They get that blaroplasty. [00:31:04] They get facial. [00:31:06] Koreans have like a round face, as you can see. [00:31:07] I got a little round face. [00:31:08] They get their faces shaved down and reshaped to look more like the European chiseled square jaw or like, you know, whatever. [00:31:16] They get eyelid surgery. [00:31:18] And it's because when you are occupied by Americans who look a certain way and they control your culture and your development, you look to the wealthy, you look to the developed, and you take those things on. [00:31:31] So again, Japan, this is probably why they retained this ethos of saying, we are not going to look at Vietnam or Iraq or Afghanistan, Iraq again, as it's not possible, just that we got to try again. [00:31:44] So I certainly would say that, you know, the way I describe it is that we have post-intervention stress disorder due to the failures of the Bush administration's interventions in the Middle East. [00:31:55] That doesn't mean it always fails, but I would say based on the track record of our current infrastructure, the probability of failure is likely high. [00:32:03] Syria being another really great example. [00:32:06] The Obama intervention in Syria resulted in the expansion of ISIS and U.S. weapons falling into the hands of psychopaths who basically defied all of the norms we expected from these Muslim insurgent groups. [00:32:18] It used to be that during the Iraq or early Iraq war era, you get kidnapped as a journalist or contractor in some Middle Eastern country by a Muslim. [00:32:28] There were, I forget what the word is, but there was something you could invoke in Islam where it would require them to protect you until the conclusion of whatever it is they kidnapped you for, be it a ransom or some political reason. [00:32:40] And an individual would be like, okay, I am basically your captor and I have to make sure nobody harms you. [00:32:46] ISIS did not care at all. [00:32:48] ISIS was like, we will literally chop off your head. [00:32:50] We don't care. [00:32:51] And they defied the norms we grew to expect because they were, as Noam Chomsky said, to quote, that guy, in the arena of violence, the most brutal guy wins. [00:33:01] And in reference to the left, he said, that's not us. [00:33:02] But the point is, you have order in Iran. [00:33:06] We keep blowing up their leadership. [00:33:08] Eventually, you get brutal Islamic disorder. [00:33:11] And that has a very high likelihood of looking like ISIS. [00:33:14] Unless we get boots on the ground exactly like we did in Syria. [00:33:19] And again, even Syria wasn't quickly resolved. [00:33:22] I don't see a mathematical probability to having any kind of stability in the region. [00:33:28] If the anger is that Iran is arming the Houthi rebels and Iraqi militia groups who are killing U.S. troops, constantly flattening the leadership in Iran, resulting in the IRGC just going rogue and forming Islamic factions is going to make that tenfold worse. [00:33:44] So the solution is then there need to be, look, I'll put it like this. [00:33:51] Fighter jets don't occupy street corners. [00:33:54] People do. [00:33:55] So you can bomb all day and night and the factions there that believe what they believe and don't want to give up are going to adapt to it. [00:34:03] Until you get someone on a street corner with a gun, you will not have control of these systems, the economics, be it disaster economics, war economies. [00:34:12] If you want to put a stop, you need a grid of people stopping them. [00:34:17] I guess my question is, do we not think that the Trump administration has counted that cost? [00:34:22] I mean, I think they want to put boots on the ground. [00:34:24] No. [00:34:24] No, I don't think they've said that. [00:34:26] I don't think they've got to do it. [00:34:27] Well, of course they can't. [00:34:28] I think Hank Seth said, you know, we have to keep all options on the table or whatever. [00:34:33] But I mean, my sense of things is you have Marco Rubio, who has better foreign policy chops than anyone I know of. [00:34:43] He is great. [00:34:43] I do. [00:34:44] You have a administration who has proven themselves trustworthy in a million different ways. [00:34:50] And we don't have, I don't think it's meaningless. [00:34:55] We don't have access to the classified briefings they have. [00:34:57] We don't have access to a lot of the intel that they have that made them make that decision. [00:35:03] And I would argue that you can trust a guy very much so, but it doesn't mean he's going to be good at baseball. [00:35:10] Yeah, but he's proven himself good at baseball. [00:35:12] When? [00:35:13] Recently in Venezuela, for example. [00:35:15] Yeah, so all the Democrats. [00:35:19] This is going to lead to this massive wisdom embroil us in this massive war and this mass and nothing happened. [00:35:24] I would actually argue that he has disproven this, and that is by the 12-day war, which utterly failed in Iran. [00:35:31] And we were assured in no uncertain terms, the nuclear program had been wiped out, and that was not true. [00:35:39] And this war is the continuation of the 12-day war. [00:35:43] So I love calling the current strikes in Iran the 12-day war, because now it's what, the 365-plus 12-day war. [00:35:51] So the point is this. [00:35:52] We were told it was a surgical strike. [00:35:54] The bombs went in, took it out. [00:35:55] There were satellite videos showing what looked like Iran shuffling their fissile material out of this base. [00:36:00] And we were told they did not. [00:36:02] It's not true. [00:36:03] Don't worry about it. [00:36:04] Now we're being told that when Trump goes to negotiate with Iran, they said outright, we have enough material for 11 bombs, and that's where we're starting the negotiation. [00:36:12] So again, I say I love the masculinity of Trump's response to looking him in the eye and being like, then I'm going to kill you. [00:36:18] And then he did. [00:36:18] Okay. [00:36:19] Not that the strikes are good, but it is like you need the balls. [00:36:24] That being said, as much as I can be like, I love the manliness of it. [00:36:28] It is fair to say we are not talking about a question of trust or capability. [00:36:33] We're talking about a question of strategy and math. [00:36:35] And fighter jets don't occupy street corners. [00:36:38] If the goal is to remove their ability to fight, you can keep bombing them. [00:36:42] But we saw what happened with Syria already. [00:36:45] So again, I'm looking at a math problem. [00:36:48] Trump can be the best in the world at these math problems, but if the solution still requires physical occupation, my assumption is the United States fully expects there needs to be an occupation of Iran. [00:37:02] And they're going to pull off the same BS they did with Ukraine by saying U.S. troops aren't in Ukraine. [00:37:08] It's a coalition of volunteers that we're paying. [00:37:11] So I would say that I think Trump is also looking at a math problem himself. [00:37:17] And I would say people talk about him playing 4D chess, 5D chess all the time in 100 different ways. [00:37:24] Earlier, we alluded to China. [00:37:27] And I think certainly he has the bigger picture in mind. [00:37:31] He is playing 4D chess. [00:37:32] I think he's counted the costs. [00:37:33] I think he has done the mathematics. [00:37:35] And I think they have what it takes to get this across the finish line in a discrete, isolated, and surgical way. [00:37:40] I disagree. [00:37:41] I think they concluded the only way we get this done is by total regime change. [00:37:47] There's been a I would describe it, and I want to be careful with this, but there's been a propagandistic effort to rally public support for the end of the Iranian government. [00:37:59] We've been getting just slammed by these stories of the killing of civilians and things like this, which I would argue is probably largely true, but of course going to be exaggerated, especially by Israel, who wants the Iranian government removed. [00:38:12] I also have no problem saying the Ayatollah was a very bad person, and the Iranian government is absolutely garbage, and it is 100% moral to have removed them. [00:38:22] I think that's true. [00:38:23] The issue, however, is it may be morally good that the Iranian government is not there anymore and was removed. [00:38:29] The question is, is it going to create, is it going to be a Pyrrhic victory? [00:38:33] Is the calculation Trump made that in order to effectively end this government, you need people? [00:38:39] I do not see, based on history and everything we've seen thus far, it is possible to engage in a full-scale operation of this size without people, with a very easy example being Ukraine. [00:38:53] They told us there are no U.S. troops on the ground. === Why Killing Leaders Backfires (16:14) === [00:38:56] Well, they're special forces and U.S. intelligence, and we are giving all of our weapons and telling them where to point them and where to shoot them. [00:39:03] And the people we're talking to are American veterans that are just privately, you know, hired and paid by the U.S. government. [00:39:10] It's like, we get it. [00:39:11] So I think it's very likely that Israel is going to have the bulk of the forces that go into Iran. [00:39:16] I think Trump is going to make some argument about how there are no boots on the ground. [00:39:21] And then they're going to whisper like, but the volunteers are there. [00:39:24] And then what you do is instead of having the U.S. military formally, you go to a bunch of PMCs and say, call them the boys. [00:39:31] We're going to pay them a salary and we're going to send them in. [00:39:32] And we're going to have 100,000 boots on the ground. [00:39:35] Unofficially, of course, not the United States. [00:39:38] And sorry, just one more thing. [00:39:39] For that matter, I really do think there's a strong probability that Trump literally orders U.S. troops to go into Iran. [00:39:44] I'm fine with PMCs. [00:39:45] A lot of these operators actually like what they do and like getting paid for it. [00:39:49] What I don't want to do is start at the meat grinder again and send in 10,000 boys who just face just finished basic. [00:39:55] I think that is my concern. [00:39:57] But PMCs, all for it. [00:39:58] Yeah, I think when we say boots on the ground, the American people are thinking about big army stuff. [00:40:04] They're thinking about tanks. [00:40:04] They're thinking about large U.S. forces. [00:40:07] There's definitely CIA on the ground. [00:40:09] The administration has already admitted it. [00:40:12] There might end up being special forces, Green Berets, going in to try and train the YPG or the Kurdish forces. [00:40:20] It's probably already there. [00:40:21] You know what I mean? [00:40:23] We just blew up their palace and killed all of their top government. [00:40:28] Sure. [00:40:28] You could intel through, and I'll put it like this. [00:40:31] If it's not an American who went there, it's an Iranian who's operating for the U.S. government. [00:40:37] Go ahead. [00:40:37] Go ahead. [00:40:38] No, I was just going to say you've rightly identified a power vacuum, but I think the response from a lot of Iranian people being nothing short of jubilation signifies. [00:40:50] I don't believe it. [00:40:51] I believe it. [00:40:52] You've seen videos of it. [00:40:53] Sure. [00:40:53] And I've seen videos of people celebrating the attempted assassination on Trump and the celebrating the assassination of Charlie Kirk. [00:40:58] Sure. [00:40:58] But all I'm saying is there's certainly appetite there for some different form and mode of government beyond Islamism. [00:41:05] If China launched a strike and blew up the White House, they would be running videos all across China of Americans celebrating and they'd say, see, we liberated them. [00:41:14] Yeah, I just, I've seen the response in both the U.S. and in Iran. [00:41:20] The response in the U.S. is going to be obvious. [00:41:22] These are people who fled Iran, like its government. [00:41:24] Absolutely. [00:41:25] And I believe that again, they're still, I agree with that. [00:41:27] I think they're not. [00:41:28] A lot of the folks in Iran, by the way, still have family back in Iran. [00:41:33] Sorry, a lot of the folks, Iranian folks in the U.S. have family back in Iran. [00:41:38] I'm telling you, there's appetite for a different regime, a different. [00:41:42] And again, the rebuttal is the same appetite exists nearly half the population in the United States. [00:41:49] You know, Trump won 49.5% of the vote and Kamala got like 47 or something like this. [00:41:56] So again, when you start seeing all of these mass protests, I guarantee you, I mean, this is true, North Korea, China, Russia are rolling those videos out in their media being like the American people hate their government and want it overthrown and Trump just killed two civilians. [00:42:10] Yeah, but again, these things aren't alike. [00:42:12] Like we have a foundation of government based on separation of powers, based on French philosophy, based on enlightenment. [00:42:19] They have a structure of government that is based on radical Islamic terrorism. [00:42:25] Indeed, and the argument there is we all agree we are correct and we have a better form of government. [00:42:30] My point is to look at a video of any amount of people protesting and determine that the people of Iran support their government being toppled, I would say, well, a percentage of them probably do, just like a large percentage of the people in the United States would celebrate Trump being killed all the same. [00:42:46] Yeah, but it's not a justification for why we go in and blow up their government. [00:42:51] Yeah, but what I'm saying is real quick. [00:42:53] The framework of government they had there is much more fragile than the framework that we have here. [00:42:59] If God forbid something happened to a president here, we have the framework in place to replace. [00:43:06] So do they. [00:43:07] They had their assembly of experts and then Israel bombed them. [00:43:10] No, I don't think they have the same structure. [00:43:13] I didn't say they're the same. [00:43:13] They have their structure to replace their leader, which they've just done. [00:43:16] And I think that we are going to find out here in the near future, their structure is much weaker and more fragile than ours. [00:43:23] Well, I think that's obvious considering we're the United States. [00:43:26] Correct. [00:43:26] That's what I'm saying. [00:43:27] None of that morally justifies the U.S. Like to say that because a portion of a country's people don't like their government is not a justification of executing their leader. [00:43:36] The moral justification would be that they have Americans' blood on their hands. [00:43:42] Agreed. [00:43:42] A moral justification would be they are racing to get nuclear arms. [00:43:46] Totally agree. [00:43:47] A moral justification would be they adhere to a form of Islam that is eschatological, apocalyptic, wants to kill the West, wants to kill the United States of America. [00:43:57] Totally agree. [00:43:57] That is a vision of moral righteousness, and they're acting on that moral righteousness. [00:44:01] And in which case if 100% of the population supported the government, it would not change the morality of what we have done. [00:44:09] Sorry, I don't know. [00:44:10] If 100% of the Iranian people were in support of the Ayatollah, it would not change the morality of our actions in blowing them up. [00:44:19] Sure. [00:44:19] Yeah. [00:44:19] That's why My point is, whether or not any amount of people in Iran are for or against the government does not matter. [00:44:27] The question that I think is posed largely, certainly there's going to be a bunch of leftists who are like, it was wrong to kill a leader in this way. [00:44:33] I'm like, the Ayatollah was a very, very bad guy. [00:44:37] The bigger issue is not military action against evil people. [00:44:41] The bigger question is, is this a Pyrrhic victory which results in mass destabilization in the region and results in more death, more killing, more rape? [00:44:48] And if our goal ultimately is, now, first and foremost, I get it. [00:44:52] They can't have a nuclear bomb. [00:44:53] And they come to the negotiating table claiming that they still have the material to do it. [00:44:56] And you know why I believe this? [00:44:57] I know a lot of people are going to say, you actually think they really said that? [00:45:01] You actually think Donald Trump would come out and admit he f ⁇ ed up when the 12-day war was supposed to wipe out their materials and it did not work? [00:45:08] I don't think Trump decided to just arbitrarily go in and mount this massive assault on Iran. [00:45:12] No, I think the reality is the 12-day war failed. [00:45:15] And now the Trump administration has to admit they failed and their assurances were incorrect. [00:45:21] And now the only outcome was we're going to have to take them out and start taking out their capabilities. [00:45:26] Why would we make the assumption that it failed? [00:45:29] Because they literally said Iran came to the negotiating table with Trump saying we have enough nuclear material for 11 bombs. [00:45:37] After the 12-day war, we were assured by the Trump administration and Trump they wiped out their nuclear capabilities. [00:45:44] They did not. [00:45:45] Yeah, I mean, I think puffery happens in any sort of negotiation. [00:45:48] But if we didn't fail – There are two different questions. [00:45:51] If we didn't fail, then why are we attacking Iran? [00:45:53] They have no nuclear program anymore, right? [00:45:54] What's the point? [00:45:55] They're racing to develop a nuclear program again. [00:45:59] Yeah, but Trump isn't going to be 20, 30 years away from making a war. [00:46:04] He's about making a deal, and he was trying to make a deal, and they were filibustering him. [00:46:10] Is your argument that the 12-day war was a success? [00:46:13] We set their nuclear program back decades, as we were told, meaning they're going to be at least 20 years on the low end away from ever getting close to this. [00:46:21] And then because they wouldn't agree to it, Trump decided to kill them all. [00:46:23] No, my point is they were racing to develop a nuclear program. [00:46:28] And they were decades away. [00:46:30] Yeah. [00:46:31] So we could have waited. [00:46:33] You don't have to wait for somebody to punch you before you. [00:46:36] 20 years. [00:46:37] We could have waited to see how they start developing weapons. [00:46:39] But you have to imagine they are also interacting with China. [00:46:42] They're also interacting with all sorts of our enemies. [00:46:46] And they are integrated sort of system. [00:46:49] And obviously, I said it earlier. [00:46:51] I think he has China in mind. [00:46:53] I think he has Russia. [00:46:53] I think he has broader interests in mind that extend beyond Iran. [00:46:57] I think the real issue is that. [00:46:58] A lot of oil refining happens in Iran. [00:47:01] Indeed, I think the real issue was already laid out by Rubio when he said Israel was planning on staging an attack against Iran, and we knew this would result in strikes against U.S. personnel and our bases. [00:47:12] And we didn't want to take a defensive posture, so we decided to go in on the attack. [00:47:15] Trump, of course, walked it back. [00:47:17] But I don't buy it for a second. [00:47:18] I think Rubio just said the quiet part loud. [00:47:20] Israel has been begging for this war, and the U.S. and Trump were trying to avoid it. [00:47:26] When Israel said we're going in, Rubio was like, well, we have no choice. [00:47:30] And he was like, if we did not join them and it resulted in strikes against U.S. personnel, we'd have more dead, and then we have to go to hearings to explain why we didn't react properly. [00:47:39] Right. [00:47:40] Indeed, we went to war, not because of the nuclear program or whatever it may be. [00:47:44] It seems the most probable reason is because Israel has wanted to go to war with Iran for a long time and told the U.S., we will do it with or without you. [00:47:50] And the U.S. response was, we are going to get bombed like crazy if Israel does this. [00:47:56] We better just stand alongside them and make sure we take out as much Iranian infrastructure as we can before that happens. [00:48:01] Everybody does not want a Benghazi on his hand. [00:48:03] He's running for 28 and probably the frontrunner, if I had to guess. [00:48:06] I think my greater concern with all of this is not so much what's going on in Iran. [00:48:09] It's what's going to happen stateside. [00:48:11] How many sleeper cells are here? [00:48:12] How many attacks we're going to see? [00:48:13] Because if the general sentiment of the U.S. population is we don't want a 20-year war if ever war, is it beyond the CIA to maybe orchestrate a handful of things to encourage people to be on board with a 20-year war with Iran? [00:48:27] Yeah, let me pull up this story here. [00:48:30] This is we're going to pull up this from Fox News. [00:48:33] We got this story. [00:48:35] Austin mass shooting. [00:48:36] Timeline traces suspects rap sheet as terror link probed. [00:48:40] I don't know how to pronounce this guy's name, Indiaga Diagni. [00:48:44] He killed two people outside of Buford's backyard beer garden while wearing a property of Allah sweatshirt. [00:48:49] Now, my general understanding is this is still believed to be Islamic terror, largely motivated by retaliation to the war in Iran. [00:48:57] It's really hard to tell while he's wearing a shirt that says property of Allah. [00:49:00] Anyway, he had a Quran in his car. [00:49:02] Indeed. [00:49:03] And again, I'm trying to be careful because I don't want to come out and just be like, it's true. [00:49:07] I don't care what they say. [00:49:07] Like, they're investigating it, but it seems the most plausible reason. [00:49:10] And the fear now is that we have Democrats not wanting to fund DHS at a time when we know there are people here legally and illegally who want to kill us. [00:49:20] We had the attack in D.C. on the West Virginia National Guard already. [00:49:25] We have this shooting. [00:49:26] And people, you can watch the video of this. [00:49:28] Have you guys seen the footage of the shooting? [00:49:30] I have seen some of it. [00:49:31] Not there. [00:49:32] Somebody's, you know what, man? [00:49:36] There's a woman screaming something like, why are you filming this? [00:49:40] And with all due respect to the person who filmed, I commend you for doing so because I know it's difficult with the horrific sight you see, the blood coming out of these people as they're desperately performing CPR, trying to keep them alive. [00:49:52] But people need to see it. [00:49:54] I'm sorry. [00:49:55] Don't let your kids see it. [00:49:56] I get that. [00:49:57] People need to understand what these people are going and willing to do. [00:50:02] And so when you have a video showing these people laying on the ground, dying because Islamic terror is in this country and they want to kill, and Secretary Noam told me in an interview explicitly, these people are here and we are concerned because we have to track them down. [00:50:17] And now the Democrats are saying, well, we don't want to fund DHS because we want to protect illegal immigrants that expect more of this. [00:50:22] And this has got everybody freaked out that I've been talking to because it could be anywhere. [00:50:26] And Austin, downtown, that's just why they were all placed. [00:50:30] There's a lot of people. [00:50:32] But this guy was a legal immigrant. [00:50:33] He came in legally under Clinton. [00:50:35] He was naturalized citizen under Obama. [00:50:39] And here he is. [00:50:40] So does that give credence to the notion that we need to put a stop to legal immigration as well? [00:50:45] As if we needed more, but yes. [00:50:47] And naturalize them. [00:50:48] Yes. [00:50:48] Well, they're talking. [00:50:49] We can agree on. [00:50:50] They're talking about re-vetting all these Afghan migrants. [00:50:53] 100%. [00:50:54] All of them. [00:50:56] There's a Benjamin, Carl Benjamin, asked a really great question on X. [00:51:01] It's a really simple way to put it. [00:51:03] He just said, I'm paraphrasing here, but with the Islamic migration into Great Britain, the question is, how does it benefit the people of the United Kingdom? [00:51:12] In what way should they welcome these people in for what benefit do they get? [00:51:16] The answer is none. [00:51:17] There isn't one. [00:51:18] And so if that's the case, then why do it? [00:51:20] And so now, if you have a country, the United States, that has gone to war and wants to go to war repeatedly with Islamic nations, probably a bad idea to invite militant ideologues into your country. [00:51:33] Yeah, I mean, look, we talk about, you know, cultures that are incompatible with ours, and we should make sure that if we're going to allow people into the United States, they need to be from cultures that actually mesh well with the United States. [00:51:48] Like, we shouldn't just be like, anyone from around the world can come here with no vetting or what have you. [00:51:53] If you can get to our shores, we'll let you in. [00:51:56] We should have very strict requirements about who is and isn't let in to become a citizen. [00:52:01] That'd be a funny like Freedom Tunes cartoon. [00:52:03] A guy comes from the country of rape land, and they're like, tell me about your country. [00:52:07] It's like in our country, our entire national pastime and culture is just SA. [00:52:11] And then they're like, uh-huh. [00:52:13] Welcome in. [00:52:14] Well, then the Republicans are like, what? [00:52:15] That's just what happened in Afghanistan, right? [00:52:18] I mean, the Taliban legalized domestic violence and they legalized beating your wife and sexual violence against children. [00:52:25] But didn't they ban child marriage or something like this? [00:52:28] They did. [00:52:29] What happened was the Taliban said, so there's a practice of like raping kids. [00:52:33] And Taliban's like, you can't do that. [00:52:35] And so when the U.S. went in to remove the Taliban, the people who were fighting against the Taliban were pro-pedophilia. [00:52:40] And so U.S. troops were ordered not to report it because these were people fighting for us against them. [00:52:46] Well, and now it's legal to sexually assault your children. [00:52:51] Are you sure children? [00:52:52] I know the wife. [00:52:53] They're like, your wife is your. [00:52:54] Yeah, I dug into that. [00:52:55] I'm pretty sure the Taliban was like, you can't sexually assault kids. [00:52:58] You can sexually assault your own children because it's a form of punishment. [00:53:02] Yeah. [00:53:03] Well, I mean, both the Taliban and whatever the other factions were were all bad. [00:53:07] They're all bad. [00:53:08] Which is why they shouldn't be allowed into the United States. [00:53:11] Like, they should not be. [00:53:13] That's what we're looking at in Iran, too. [00:53:16] I mean, everybody's bad, right? [00:53:17] And so once you wipe out everybody, and Trump even said that they had wiped out the people who he thought would be, you know, good next leaders. [00:53:28] Now we have a situation where how many more people are they going to wipe out before they find like, you know, that guy who was waiting, like the, the postal inspector? [00:53:39] The point is you know what I mean? [00:53:40] The point isn't about like, trying to find the good guy. [00:53:43] It, the point is to make the people understand, look, this is going to keep happening until you play ball with the United States and go ahead, go ahead. [00:53:51] And every president, since you know, back to Obama and before, had wanted to take out Khomeini, like it. [00:53:57] You know, it's um, something that everyone want, everyone wanted to do, and they just didn't have the capability up until now to do. [00:54:04] And that's, I mean, that's actually and that's what happened in, you know, in Venezuela. [00:54:09] Like they, they wrapped up Maduro and they told the, the vice president, look, you need to play ball. [00:54:15] And I mean, obviously the jury's still out on on how far that's going to go how how uh, how well they're going to work with the United States and stuff um, but it it, all indications are that they're like, okay yeah, we'll go ahead and do this. [00:54:28] I read a story about the vice president. [00:54:30] That or not the vice president, but the, the person that won the Nobel Peace Prize, that she was supposed to be the president, that that Maduro stole the election, she was going back and they were going to organize new elections. [00:54:41] I think in the fall and I mean again, if it works out then it seems like a method worth trying. [00:54:48] Now obviously, like I said, Iran is not the same place as Venezuela. [00:54:52] The culture is different, but if the, if the Trump administration's goal is all right, we're going to get you to the table and find someone that actually wants to work with us and we're going to use violence to do it, I mean it's it's, it's not something that I'm exact, that I that I can say, that I endorse, but it's better than having a 20-year quagmire. === Protracted Conflict (10:25) === [00:55:11] Yeah, and it's kind of mess around, and they just decided that the um, the crown prince what's his name? [00:55:16] Pahavi or whatever he's going to be speaking at CPAC in Dallas in just a couple of weeks. [00:55:21] Yeah, you know. [00:55:23] Yeah, I think I think it's an effort to bring them to the negotiating table and say hey, you've already found out. [00:55:29] Yeah, mess around and find out like, if you don't come to the negotiating table and play ball, we mean business, he's shown he means business and I think he's gonna get a lot of success out of this. [00:55:40] I think the thing is, unless you destroy the entire IRGC, you're going to have this problem not only continue in Iran, but in the region. [00:55:47] I mean, if it wasn't for the Iranian revolution, you wouldn't have the spread of extremist Islam in the Middle East as it stands right now. [00:55:54] Yeah, and I think that's part of the calculation. [00:55:57] If they actually can get Iran to stop funding Amas, stop funding Hezbollah, stop giving weapons and arms to the Houthis, stop. [00:56:05] You know, I think it was the Houthis that were going after Saudi Arabia as well, right? [00:56:09] They were Saudis. [00:56:11] The Houthis is Yemen. [00:56:12] Yeah. [00:56:12] Yeah. [00:56:12] So, like, if they can get that to stop, I think the region will look at this as an overall good thing. [00:56:19] And again, I don't know that it's going to work. [00:56:21] I'm not saying that I'm for the attacks, but at the same time, if they can get those kind of behaviors to stop from the Iranian regime, that's something that the whole Middle East is going to say, well, this is good. [00:56:33] Because right now, the whole Middle East essentially is against Iran. [00:56:37] Everybody, they all signed onto the Abraham Accords. [00:56:40] You were looking at basically a Middle East that was moving towards a peaceful situation with Israel. [00:56:45] They were recognizing Israel. [00:56:47] It was looking like things were going to go the way that the West wants. [00:56:51] And the only stopping, you know, the stopping force was Iran. [00:56:54] If they can fix it, if they can straighten that problem out by a use of force, the whole Middle East is going to say, well, this is actually better than it was before. [00:57:02] Yeah. [00:57:02] And as I said at the outset, nobody's in favor of a forever war. [00:57:07] Nobody's in favor of aggressive, sort of gratuitous foreign intervention. [00:57:13] But they've said it's going to be a discrete four to five week operation. [00:57:17] And by the way, that was said before the midterms. [00:57:21] So, you know, I think we take them at their word and just see how they perform. [00:57:24] Can we just pull this map real quick and just talk about, you know, you got the Straight O'Hara's right here, and here's Dubai. [00:57:30] And look at this. [00:57:31] Look at these goofy little palm tree islands they built. [00:57:35] Yeah, can't we just do more of that? [00:57:36] You know, like it's, it's, it's like a party. [00:57:38] Everyone's having a good time. [00:57:40] You know, people. [00:57:41] The thing is, they can't do more of that because of Iran. [00:57:43] That's what I'm saying. [00:57:44] This is my point. [00:57:44] I'm like, can't we just, like, can't Iran just stop, knock it off so we can have these little sand islands to you know go swimming in? [00:57:52] Well, now they can. [00:57:54] Now they can. [00:57:55] Not now. [00:57:56] Not now. [00:57:56] You know, in due course. [00:57:58] Hopefully, that, you know, again, I'm not, I'm not in favor of a ground invasion. [00:58:04] I do think that it's a little early to be talking about ground invasion. [00:58:07] We're on day, what, three of the actual airstrikes, and you haven't seen any kind of significant movement of troops or logistics, and you don't see a ground invasion. [00:58:18] You don't, you're not going to see a soldier going into Iran unless there's a Burger King in a truck behind him. [00:58:24] Like, there's always a massive movement of troops. [00:58:26] There was a massive movement of troops signaling the invasion of Iran. [00:58:30] I'm sorry, of Iraq. [00:58:31] There was a massive movement of troops into Afghanistan. [00:58:35] People will know if that's something that's actually starting to happen. [00:58:39] And it's probably a little too early to actually be talking about it. [00:58:42] Well, what do we think of what Trump said on his election night victory when he said, I'm not going to start wars. [00:58:48] I'm going to stop wars. [00:58:50] I think that he's right. [00:58:51] I mean, you think he started this war? [00:58:54] No, I think a reasonable articulation would be it was preventative. [00:58:57] I mean, at least. [00:58:58] So it was starting a war in a preventative way. [00:59:01] I'm just curious about how we. [00:59:02] It's a hard one to stop one. [00:59:04] I'm curious about how we're aware of what Trump said about not starting wars with him just. [00:59:09] Right. [00:59:09] Well, we also keep using the word war. [00:59:12] Again, I would probably articulate it more in terms of conflict, in terms of another country's leader. [00:59:20] No, war is a term of art. [00:59:23] The phrase matters, as I said. [00:59:25] No, I'm sorry. [00:59:25] When you blow up another country's leader and then bombard their country and they fire back, you're at war. [00:59:30] So it's photography. [00:59:32] Constitutionally speaking, that's not right. [00:59:34] I'm going to beat you up in the schoolyard. [00:59:35] 3 p.m., I'm going to get you. [00:59:36] It's not a fight. [00:59:37] You find him at 10 o'clock in the morning in the bathroom taking a piss at the urinal and you kick him in the back of the head. [00:59:43] You get ahead of it is what you do. [00:59:44] You don't wait for the fight. [00:59:45] No, to be a fair point, that's not a fight. [00:59:47] Yeah, it's not. [00:59:48] It never happens. [00:59:49] That's what I'm getting at. [00:59:50] And again, I was a little back of the head. [00:59:53] I was a little egg-headed. [00:59:55] I was like, I'm not sure if I'm going to get you into the urinal, too. [00:59:58] And again, I was a little eggheaded at the outset when I was talking about Article 1, Article 2. [01:00:04] But the declarations of war carry legal significance that authorizes additional action by... [01:00:12] Would you describe what's going on between Iran and the United States as an armed conflict? [01:00:16] I would call it a conflict. [01:00:17] I would call it a hostility. [01:00:18] I would call it military population. [01:00:21] It's an armed conflict. [01:00:22] Yeah, military operation. [01:00:24] That is the definition of war. [01:00:25] I don't think it is. [01:00:27] It literally is. [01:00:28] In the Oxford dictionary, war is a state of armed conflict between nations. [01:00:31] Yeah, but we moved our biggest aircraft carrier over there. [01:00:35] We moved like a whole bunch of people. [01:00:36] We have like a blueprint. [01:00:38] We have like 40,000 guys waiting. [01:00:41] I understand. [01:00:42] I think I am kind of putting on my attorney hat, and there are a lot of legal terms of art that carry certain weight. [01:00:50] Indeed, and to the average person around the world, the U.S. started a war with Iran. [01:00:54] If you want to put it colloquially, you can say that, but I would say that it's a conflict, it's a hostility, it is a military conflict. [01:01:00] And the definition in the dictionary of what a war is is a state of armed conflict between nations. [01:01:03] Yeah, I think it's protracted. [01:01:05] I think, as you stated, declaration of war. [01:01:09] See, is it going to be like whoever is in power and needs to massage the truth will justify why man doesn't mean male. [01:01:18] It means something else. [01:01:19] And then the like pro-war side is, no, no, no, war is a legal term of art. [01:01:24] And this is just an aggressive negotiation. [01:01:27] No, listen. [01:01:28] I think the beginning of wisdom is calling a thing by its proper name. [01:01:32] War. [01:01:32] I think boots on the ground, this massive influx of troops that he was describing, that is war. [01:01:39] I think a protracted 10-year period of time, the 30 years war, I think that's war. [01:01:44] So cyber war doesn't exist. [01:01:46] I think discreet attacks that are prophylactic in nature is not a war. [01:01:52] So cyber war. [01:01:53] It wears itself out in history. [01:01:54] Cyber war is not a real thing. [01:01:56] I'm not saying cyber war is not a real thing at all. [01:01:58] I'm saying that I don't think that we can fairly characterize this as a war. [01:02:02] So the largest buildup of U.S. naval forces in what, 20 plus years or ever in the Gulf launching missiles and blowing up bases as well as their palace is not war. [01:02:15] Again, I think we're getting into semantics. [01:02:18] I think as a legal term of art, no, I would not call it war. [01:02:21] I got to be honest, bro. [01:02:22] Like, do you really think anyone believes what you are saying or that you believe it? [01:02:26] Yeah, absolutely. [01:02:27] No, they don't. [01:02:28] Again, we are talking about two different realities. [01:02:32] There's a colloquial way of describing war, which is like 99% of the world. [01:02:35] There's a legal way of describing war where now the president can seize private companies and force them to operate the economy in a certain way. [01:02:44] He can do blockades. [01:02:45] It has certain implications on maritime law. [01:02:47] Let's just say that it's a totally different reality. [01:02:49] And so I'm saying, would you agree then we're at war with Iran? [01:02:53] I would say we're in a conflict. [01:02:54] I would say we're at war. [01:02:55] According to common parlance, would you say we're at war with Iran? [01:02:59] No, I think it is a narrow dispute. [01:03:01] Literally, no human being anywhere is going to agree with you. [01:03:05] And you know it. [01:03:05] No, no, there's 434 people in Washington, D.C. that would agree that he is speaking Congressman. [01:03:12] That's not true. [01:03:12] Thomas Massey and Roque Lee. [01:03:14] Okay, so 433. [01:03:17] It goes back to the fight versus the punch thing versus the, I think we delivered a formidable punch. [01:03:22] We can't call it war until we have proper time to invest. [01:03:25] So look, look, look, the fight on the school ground. [01:03:28] You and I square up, we're throwing fisticuffs, you know, mama jokes back and forth, et cetera. [01:03:35] That is war. [01:03:36] I think we're bombing their base. [01:03:39] To use his example, seeing you in a urinal and punching you, that's a punch. [01:03:43] It's not a fight. [01:03:44] Okay, so if I'm at a urinal and he punches me in the back of the head and I turn around and punch him in the gut, are we fighting? [01:03:50] Well, especially. [01:03:51] Are we fighting? [01:03:52] I wouldn't call that a fight unless there's a protracted brawl. [01:03:54] Yeah, like, so he punches me in the back of the head. [01:03:57] I bang my head in the urinal, fall down, I get up, I go, you son of a, I punch him in the face, he falls down, he gets up, kicks me in the nuts, then I punch him in the stomach. [01:04:04] Are we fighting yet? [01:04:05] Look, are we fighting? [01:04:06] I have to explain again. [01:04:08] Trump has used the word war. [01:04:09] Other people have a war. [01:04:11] Other people have used the word war. [01:04:13] I think colloquially we are talking about, you're talking about war or whatever. [01:04:18] But are you? [01:04:18] But my mind cannot get out of the legal mentality and the legal implications of declaring war. [01:04:24] And that's why I think it's an important distinction. [01:04:26] And so what you're really saying is you can't say it, not because it's not true, but because of legal ramifications against you. [01:04:32] No, not legal ramifications against me, legal ramifications that attach to the executive, to Congress, to international law, to all sorts of things that are maybe it's a war with a silent Z. W-Z-A-R. [01:04:50] Wazor. [01:04:51] Yeah. [01:04:51] Yeah. [01:04:51] Silent Z. [01:04:53] It's not just casualty. [01:04:54] I'm not trying to evade the question. [01:04:56] I think it's important to distinguish it, at least from a legal perspective. [01:05:01] I think if this lasts, I think if this lasts for several months, I would say you could fairly characterize it as such. [01:05:08] I mean, look, I don't know. [01:05:09] I mean, it's am I am I crazy? [01:05:11] Maybe. [01:05:12] No, you're just trying to get into Congress. [01:05:14] So yes, actually. [01:05:15] Yes, you are crazy because that seems totally insane to me. [01:05:20] I don't think there are very many people that would say that it's not a war. [01:05:25] I do think it's fair to say these are strikes, right? [01:05:28] They're carrying out airstrikes because that's technically what they're doing. [01:05:32] But yeah, I mean, people are just going to be like, look, it's a war, man. === Jasmine Crockett's Unexpected Campaign (15:24) === [01:05:36] Let's jump to this next story because we got big, big news. [01:05:38] The results are starting to come in in Texas, and Cornyn is beating Ken Paxton. [01:05:44] Oh, wow. [01:05:44] Yeah. [01:05:46] It's kind of a surprise, isn't it? [01:05:47] So right now we're looking at 42% reporting. [01:05:50] So we will see. [01:05:51] Cornyn, of course, he's got Dallas. [01:05:53] He's got Houston. [01:05:54] Austin is actually not reporting just yet. [01:05:57] We'll see. [01:05:57] I'm assuming it's going to go Cornyn. [01:05:59] But, you know, we'll see. [01:06:02] It could turn around. [01:06:03] We've not gotten any declaration just yet on how it's going to play out. [01:06:06] Jasmine Crockett is getting crushed. [01:06:08] She's down some 76,000 votes. [01:06:12] She's down by about, we're looking at eight points, 8.3 points so far, 39% reporting. [01:06:18] I'm just going to go ahead and say this. [01:06:20] I'm on her side, and she should, along with the FCC, sue CBS, Paramount, and Stephen Colbert because they violated FCC. [01:06:30] Oh, more reporting just came in. [01:06:31] They violated FCC regulation rules in order to give James Tallerico a major boost, and they knew they were faking it. [01:06:40] Colbert knew he was not prohibited from having on Tallerico's opponent, Jasmine Crockett, and Ahmad Hassan. [01:06:47] He knew this, and he wanted to frame it as though Trump stopped him from having him on to make it seem like this guy was the guaranteed frontrunner against the Republican and that Jasmine Crockett didn't exist. [01:06:57] As much as I don't like Jasmine Crockett, and I do think Tellerico is better in a lot of ways, it doesn't matter. [01:07:02] That was scumbag BS, and Colbert is a scumbag who hoaxed people to cheat in an election. [01:07:08] Yeah, but you know why he did it? [01:07:09] It's because he didn't think Crockett could win because he thinks everyone in Texas is racist. [01:07:14] The idea was Tellerico is a left-leaning, self-reported Christian, and that he's going to be able to this. [01:07:22] It's not just him, it's the Democrats. [01:07:23] It's all about electability. [01:07:24] And it's this fake concept because as we've seen, electability doesn't mean anything. [01:07:29] People are electable if their constituents want them, and that's really it. [01:07:32] Colbert is a scumbag. [01:07:34] Yes, that's. [01:07:35] How does a guy like Ahmad Ahsan get 10,000 votes in Texas? [01:07:39] Because there's a hard worker. [01:07:40] There's a growing word. [01:07:42] There's about 10,000 people. [01:07:44] There's a massive Muslim population. [01:07:45] There's a segment. [01:07:47] It's growing. [01:07:48] Yeah. [01:07:50] They voted to fund the building of a bunch of mosques, didn't they? [01:07:54] Yeah. [01:07:54] And like a whole town that they were calling, what was it, like Epic City or something? [01:07:59] Something like that. [01:07:59] Because they got in trouble when it had an Islamic name, so they changed it. [01:08:03] As of right now, sorry, just Tony Gonzalez is beating Brandon Herrera with 4% reporting. [01:08:09] So I'm not super worried about it. [01:08:11] The prediction markets have Herrera to win. [01:08:13] If Tony Gonzalez wins, I'm sorry. [01:08:16] I am going to laugh, a hearty laugh after that whole scandal. [01:08:21] Because his mistress set herself on fire. [01:08:23] Oh, man. [01:08:24] And you don't say a celebration song is actually the roof is on fire. [01:08:27] Wow. [01:08:28] You're joking. [01:08:29] I am joking. [01:08:29] Oh, my God. [01:08:31] I can't tell sometimes because it's believable. [01:08:35] I just want to say this whole Tony Gonzalez thing, everyone knew, and it was kept under wraps by the Democrats and Republicans. [01:08:46] So for those who don't know the story, Tony Gonzalez reportedly had an affair with a staffer who was desperately in love with him. [01:08:53] And she was, I don't know that the full story was, but she was like, you know, if you leave me, I'll take my own life or something like this, doused herself in fuel or something, and then accidentally immolated herself. [01:09:07] But apparently, the Beltway of D.C., they all knew it the whole time. [01:09:13] Yep. [01:09:13] So this also happened in Uvalde County. [01:09:15] They've not released any of the details of the investigation. [01:09:18] It's still ongoing. [01:09:19] And it's just interesting. [01:09:19] It was in Uvalde. [01:09:21] Uvalde, yeah. [01:09:21] Wow. [01:09:22] Unreal. [01:09:23] They need a whole new police force there. [01:09:25] Well, I'm going to say this. [01:09:26] I'm going to say this. [01:09:26] They quitted the two officers who were permitted to get out of the way. [01:09:29] Yeah, they got off. [01:09:30] God. [01:09:31] I'm going to. [01:09:31] It's crazy that they got off. [01:09:33] Because they stood outside being like, don't go rescue your own children as they're being butchered. [01:09:37] Oh, they were playing Candy Crush. [01:09:38] They were on a high score. [01:09:39] The story of Tony Gonzalez is known by everyone in Congress. [01:09:43] Everyone knows it. [01:09:44] Everyone knows it. [01:09:46] And for whatever reason, they have been keeping their mouths shut. [01:09:50] I think the Republicans, I very much dislike the Republican Party, and I want Brandon Herrera to win. [01:09:57] But you know, the Republican establishment definitely does not want Brandon Herrera in. [01:10:02] They want people they can control. [01:10:04] And so my assumption is the Democrats were like, this is not the kind of play we want to make, which could also bring in a hardliner like Herrera. [01:10:12] Even the Democrats would rather have Tony Gonzalez. [01:10:14] And then the Republicans are like, we want a guy who's going to jump when we say jump. [01:10:18] So everybody, shh. [01:10:20] Yeah. [01:10:21] I was shocked when Trump endorsed Gonzalez. [01:10:24] And from what I understand, Trump does not actually endorse people. [01:10:26] It's a pay-to-play system. [01:10:27] The people in charge of doing the endorsements basically get backdoor deals, and then you get a Trump endorsement. [01:10:32] But I was shocked after all of this. [01:10:34] I thought it was because he values his endorsement and his reputation with the GOP voters, and that's why he didn't endorse. [01:10:40] Yeah, I know. [01:10:41] That's a little Pollyanna-ish for sure. [01:10:44] But and that was why he wasn't going to endorse in the GOP Senate primary. [01:10:50] Yeah. [01:10:51] Yeah. [01:10:51] Well, I mean, you think it's a little pay-to-play? [01:10:53] A little pay-to-play act? [01:10:55] I can tell you. [01:10:55] A little extra Bitcoin. [01:10:58] I mean, like last time, Brandon lost by 400 votes. [01:11:01] 400. [01:11:01] You know, man. [01:11:02] A district that had a turnout that typically does not turn out. [01:11:06] I think it was over 90% turnouts. [01:11:07] They actually fucked. [01:11:08] There's a whole thing. [01:11:09] I won't get into it here. [01:11:11] Well, I mean, obviously, I can't see the future, but I would hope that considering he lost by 400 last time, and this time his opponent is embroiled in a scandal that's pretty embroiling. [01:11:25] But guys, Caul She prediction markets calling it for Tallarico already. [01:11:29] Nice. [01:11:29] So I don't, yeah, we only got 40% reporting. [01:11:34] This is what's really interesting to see if they're going to be right about this. [01:11:37] It's 99%, according to Caul She's prediction market, that Tallarico is going to win. [01:11:43] Jasmine Crockett's at less than 1%. [01:11:46] And you were saying before, like they eliminated her congressional seat. [01:11:49] So she gone. [01:11:50] Yeah. [01:11:50] Gone. [01:11:51] They got rid of that seat. [01:11:53] It was the redistricting. [01:11:54] It was the Texas redistricting, redistricting that caused the California redistricting that caused the New York redistricting that caused it to go to the Supreme Court. [01:12:02] And Nicole Maliotakis gets to keep that GOP seat. [01:12:06] So if I, so I got here, the Texas 23 Republican nominee, and we can see Brandon Herrera at 93%. [01:12:11] Weirdly, Tony Gonzalez at 16%. [01:12:14] Those numbers don't add up. [01:12:17] It's interesting how that sometimes happens. [01:12:19] I don't know what the actual rules are why that's happening, but I know a lot of people are going to get mad at me when I say this, and I'm not going to make a play or anything like that. [01:12:28] But my point is, if you were going to make a bet on the establishment, you know what I mean? [01:12:34] Like, do we actually have faith that the machine would be fair to Brandon Herrera? [01:12:40] That's the real question I'm bringing up. [01:12:41] His likelihood of winning just dropped to 85%. [01:12:44] And Tony Gonzalez up to 18, which, again, those numbers don't add up. [01:12:49] Math ain't math. [01:12:50] Math ain't math. [01:12:52] Whatever. [01:12:53] I gotta say, I would miss Jasmine Crockett on the national stage. [01:12:56] She is fun to watch. [01:12:57] She ain't going nowhere. [01:12:57] She'll be on the view. [01:12:59] Yeah, exactly. [01:12:59] She'll be somewhere. [01:13:00] She'll be around. [01:13:00] She'll be around. [01:13:01] Love a podcast. [01:13:02] Maybe she'll start talking like this again. [01:13:04] Maybe she'll be Gavin Newsom's running mate. [01:13:07] No, that would be fun. [01:13:09] Maybe. [01:13:09] Maybe. [01:13:10] Maybe it would be really quite the show. [01:13:12] I don't know. [01:13:12] If she loses. [01:13:14] If she had Oscars, they'd get Oscar Nomster. [01:13:16] That was awesome. [01:13:16] I mean, I wonder. [01:13:17] I imagine she'll just move and go trying to get back into Congress. [01:13:20] Yeah. [01:13:21] Like, where was she? [01:13:21] She could move to Jersey. [01:13:23] I mean, maybe where is she originally from? [01:13:24] Is she from Jersey? [01:13:25] I thought she was from Texas. [01:13:27] No, I don't think so. [01:13:28] Is she not? [01:13:28] Maybe. [01:13:29] I don't know if it's looking up. [01:13:30] I mean, maybe she would just move. [01:13:32] I'm sure she'd cash out for a little while, make a little money, and then maybe make another run at it. [01:13:37] Write a book. [01:13:38] Yeah. [01:13:39] Yeah. [01:13:40] Write a book. [01:13:41] Yeah. [01:13:42] I can't imagine what Jasmine is. [01:13:43] St. Louis. [01:13:44] She's from St. Louis, Missouri. [01:13:45] Oh, there you go. [01:13:47] She could fight Corey Bush for that seat Corey Bush has been trying to get back for a while now. [01:13:51] God, it is astounding that Corey Bush was ever in Congress. [01:13:56] You realize she was part of a congressional hearing on black maternal mortality, and she referred to herself as a birthing person. [01:14:07] She was just an absolute imbecile. [01:14:10] Yes. [01:14:10] I just want to say, real quick, there's a you are so right now, call she has close, there's no contracts available to bet yes on Tellerico to buy yes contracts. [01:14:22] Jasmine Crockett, there's a yes, no, no. [01:14:26] She will not get the nomination, not available. [01:14:29] But if you want to bet she's going to win, and if you want to bet Tellerico's going to lose, those are allowed. [01:14:34] And we call those value bets because $100 on no wins you $9,351. [01:14:41] So the idea there is a value bet. [01:14:45] Again, you know, it's buying contracts on futures predictions. [01:14:50] But this is like for $100, having a very, very, very slim chance to win basically 10 Gs. [01:14:56] You know, there's a lot of people who take those bets. [01:14:58] And I think it's probably a bad idea. [01:15:00] Probably a bad idea. [01:15:01] Jasmine, she go on. [01:15:03] Yeah, I think that's good. [01:15:04] Now, take a look at this. [01:15:05] Tony Gonzalez up to 35% to win, which is weird because Brandon Herrera is at 83%. [01:15:11] And I think the reason here is, I want to clarify, it's my understanding is it's supposed to be internally among themselves. [01:15:19] Basically, whether or not Brandon Herrera wins, yes and no, is it's immaterial to whether Tony Gonzalez wins. [01:15:27] Like basically the way the contracts work, all that really matters is what people think: will Tony win or lose, not if Brandon is winning, Tony is losing, if you get what I mean. [01:15:37] So it often will equal more than 100%. [01:15:40] So basically, you have a lot of people betting that their guy's going to win. [01:15:45] It still doesn't add up because Brendan Herrera is at 85 yes and 24 no, which, you know, doesn't math. [01:15:53] And Tony Gonzalez at yes, 33 cents and no 77. [01:15:57] I will stress this again. [01:15:58] This is due to the fact it's the average cost of the contract, not the actual percentage that he's going to win. [01:16:05] So again, let's, oh, actually, where's the Texas 23rd? [01:16:10] We got some updates. [01:16:12] Here we go. [01:16:12] Oh, wow. [01:16:13] Big jump for Brandon Herrera. [01:16:15] 7% reporting, and it is nearly tied. [01:16:17] Tony Gonzalez leading by 51 votes. [01:16:20] Let's go, Brandon. [01:16:21] Wait. [01:16:22] Does that mean what I think? [01:16:24] I don't think that means what you think it means. [01:16:26] I think it's easy. [01:16:26] No, no, we're taking it. [01:16:27] We're turning it around now. [01:16:29] He's appropriated it. [01:16:30] I'm pretty sure it's not. [01:16:31] Let's go, Brandon. [01:16:32] Yeah. [01:16:33] So it's okay to say. [01:16:34] I'm going to tweet, let's go, Brandon. [01:16:36] Because you know what? [01:16:37] You know, it's. [01:16:38] Reclaim it. [01:16:38] Yeah. [01:16:38] No, no, no, it's not reclaiming. [01:16:40] It's if you know you know. [01:16:41] Right. [01:16:41] Right. [01:16:41] It means both good and bad, depending on the context. [01:16:44] Yeah. [01:16:45] Let's put a picture of an AK-47 with that. [01:16:48] Just an AK-47 and then AK-47. [01:16:51] Like, heck yeah, Herrera or something like that. [01:16:54] But yeah, I mean, I really do have my fingers crossed that Brandon wins. [01:16:58] Obviously, I know the guy and he's a good dude. [01:17:01] But the idea of Gonzalez winning after all that stuff came out about the cheating on his wife and the scandal with the poor woman that ended up killing herself. [01:17:15] It seems like it's accidentally. [01:17:18] If he still gets elected, I mean, God, I can't believe that he's got this many votes. [01:17:23] The fact that he's got 1,800 votes with that track record. [01:17:27] Those people have to be completely and totally checked out. [01:17:29] They don't know about the situation at all. [01:17:31] Jasmine Crockett is already saying that there's been cheating in the election. [01:17:34] Oh, for real? [01:17:35] Let's go. [01:17:36] I'm totally on board. [01:17:38] Let's do it. [01:17:39] Let's go. [01:17:39] I am with you, Jasmine Crockett. [01:17:42] Let's cry fraud. [01:17:44] If you want to accuse Dominion, which was bought by a Republican, I will stay out of it. [01:17:50] But I will cheat from the sidelines. [01:17:51] No election has ever been stolen in the history of election. [01:17:53] Not ever. [01:17:54] I certainly don't believe that. [01:17:55] No. [01:17:56] I mean, North Korea, clean as a whistle. [01:17:58] Yeah. [01:17:59] Definitely not in America. [01:18:00] Definitely not in America. [01:18:01] Definitely not. [01:18:02] Not once. [01:18:03] No, but to your point, it's kind of funny. [01:18:05] Oh, really? [01:18:05] It used to be despairing. [01:18:07] And if someone had smoked weed or something, they were just toast for an election. [01:18:12] And now you have this guy with all the baggage in the world. [01:18:16] Ever since the DC mayor, I forget what his name was, the guy that was smoking crack. [01:18:19] Oh, my God. [01:18:20] Marian Barry. [01:18:21] All right. [01:18:22] Let's pull up the clip. [01:18:23] Uh-oh. [01:18:24] It's crashing on us. [01:18:25] I'm texting my wife right now to put $1,000 on Brandon. [01:18:28] It's froze. [01:18:29] Just text her, let's go. [01:18:30] We'll have to come back to that in a second. [01:18:32] As soon as it stops, it's freezing. [01:18:37] In the meantime, Marion Barry smoked cracks on camera, still wants an election. [01:18:45] Yeah, but what was his name? [01:18:46] Gillam? [01:18:47] Andrew Gillam? [01:18:48] Yeah, that almost drugs all over. [01:18:51] That is wild. [01:18:52] Some kind of a motel room or something like that. [01:18:54] Almost the governor's. [01:18:55] He's in a nice hotel. [01:18:56] Wasn't there a picture of him like buck naked on the ground? [01:18:59] Yes. [01:18:59] There was. [01:19:00] Like vomiting or something. [01:19:02] A male prostitute actually called it in. [01:19:04] There were drugs all over the ground, pills. [01:19:05] He's passed out butt nagged. [01:19:07] He's got vomit coming out of his mouth. [01:19:09] Horrible picture. [01:19:10] DeSantis feed him, right? [01:19:11] Better night than the picture, apparently. [01:19:13] And if I recall, it was close. [01:19:16] All right, here we go. [01:19:17] We got it. [01:19:17] We got it. [01:19:18] Here we go. [01:19:19] Let's roll tape. [01:19:20] Got Jasmine Crockett, who, as of the recording of this episode, is losing. [01:19:25] And so, of course, the real issue is it's stolen from us. [01:19:28] Allred has already stated. [01:19:31] We encourage each and every one of you to remain resilient. [01:19:35] We cannot allow this type of behavior to be rewarded because so long as they know that they can win, even if it means cheating, then they will continue to do it. [01:19:47] So, I am asking you, I am begging you to make sure that you go ahead and figure out where it is that you are supposed to vote, stand in line, wait in line. [01:19:59] They did cheat, though. [01:19:59] And I stand with Jasmine Crockett on this issue. [01:20:02] Stephen Colbert falsely accused Donald Trump of suppressing an interview with Jasmine Crockett, a Democrat's opponent, so that they could frame this as though Tellerico was the only competitor against the Republicans, when in fact, the real issue was if Colbert interviewed Tellarico, he needed to provide equal opportunity to Jasmine Crockett. [01:20:24] However, instead of being honest, Colbert attacked Trump so that regular people would assume it was Democrat versus Republican. [01:20:32] And that was the lie meant to prop up the Democrat purporting to be a Christian so that, again, the idea here is Jasmine Crockett is not going to get enough middle-of-the-road people, and Tallerico could. [01:20:44] So they're kneecapping Jasmine Crockett, cheating, violating FCC rules, and then lying about and hoaxing smears against Trump so they could steal this election. [01:20:55] I actually think her voter base needs under two hours to come voting because they're typically not on time. === Amnesty and Birthright Citizenship (07:21) === [01:21:00] Oh, my goodness. [01:21:03] Well, it's progressives in Texas. [01:21:06] Let me, where's the race? [01:21:09] Texas Democrat, where is it at? [01:21:11] Here we go. [01:21:12] She's currently down 7.3, I believe. [01:21:15] Is that 7.7? [01:21:19] Oh my God, my math is way, way wrong. [01:21:21] No, 7.7. [01:21:22] Tellerico is up 522,000 with 42% reporting against Jasmine Crockett's 447,000. [01:21:29] For the Republican primary, Ken Paxton is down three points, but he is improving with 47% reporting. [01:21:34] We don't know exactly. [01:21:36] Let me pull up the prediction market on this one. [01:21:40] Texas Republican primary and see if we can get the turnout. [01:21:45] No, I don't care about that one. [01:21:46] San Antonio and Austin can put Brendan over the. [01:21:49] Here we go. [01:21:50] Paxton is actually the favorite to beat Cornyn, which would be massive. [01:21:54] Please. [01:21:55] Yeah. [01:21:56] Please. [01:21:57] Well, Corn wants to do amnesty, doesn't he? [01:21:58] Yeah, that's exactly about doing an amnesty bill. [01:22:01] I mean, he was talking about doing amnesty for DACA, but Trump has also said that he wants to make a deal on DACA. [01:22:07] So, you know, I'm comfortable with deals on DACA. [01:22:12] I mean, if a kid's grown up here since they were one because their parents are criminals, you send them to them. [01:22:19] Already done amnesty, what, four times already? [01:22:22] I'm not crazy about the I'm not crazy about the amnesty either, specifically for adults. [01:22:27] Every single time we do amnesty, they go, this will be the last time, and then they do it again. [01:22:31] They do it again. [01:22:31] So I'm just, I'm done with it. [01:22:33] I was a rumor the other day saying 11 million. [01:22:36] Yeah. [01:22:37] Let me ask you this. [01:22:40] A guy steals $10,000 cash and then gives it to his son and then dies. [01:22:48] Does his son keep the money? [01:22:50] No. [01:22:50] It's not his fault. [01:22:51] He's had the money for a long time. [01:22:53] It was given to him by his dad. [01:22:55] The original owner says, I want my money back. [01:22:56] Should we just be like, well, we can't. [01:22:57] He was a little kid when he got the money. [01:22:58] It's his. [01:22:58] I don't even know where the money came from. [01:23:01] And look, it's been sitting in his account. [01:23:04] He's been using it here and there. [01:23:05] He's been making plans based on having that money. [01:23:08] He should keep it, right? [01:23:09] Do you think that sending the DACA people back would discourage illegal immigration in the future? [01:23:17] Absolutely. [01:23:20] I ended up here. [01:23:21] I don't even speak whatever stupid language. [01:23:23] And how many years have they had to actually do the paperwork and get the job done? [01:23:28] Well, the thing with DACA is once you registered for DACA under the Obama era. [01:23:33] You weren't eligible? [01:23:34] No, that was like what you could do. [01:23:35] And it was like, that was your limit because there was no legal status after registering. [01:23:41] If you are a 30-year-old DACA recipient, are you not allowed to apply for a residency? [01:23:47] Yeah, there's like, I believe there's limits on what you can do once you've been registered as DACA. [01:23:52] So you're sort of just like waiting around. [01:23:54] Then I would say you made your bed. [01:23:57] But it's only the people who are eligible for DACA are only the people who were qualified for it under that Obama administration. [01:24:04] I don't understand the argument where it's like someone broke into my house with a baby and now I'm forced to adopt the baby. [01:24:11] It literally makes no sense. [01:24:14] You can be like, I'm not going to kick you out. [01:24:15] I'm going to adopt the baby personally. [01:24:17] No, I'd call health services and say, I have no obligation to this criminal who broke into my house with a baby. [01:24:23] Sure. [01:24:24] And we're going to drop the baby off at a fire department. [01:24:27] Yeah, I probably wouldn't do that. [01:24:28] But anyway, that's, you know, that's my own thing. [01:24:32] But so, I mean, what do you, so if you think that it really would prohibit future illegal immigration, inhibit, prevent, make it not happen. [01:24:41] Well, prevent and inhibit a different words. [01:24:44] Discourage. [01:24:45] Yeah, discourage. [01:24:46] Parents are going to be like, it should be known if you illegally enter this country with the intent to violate our laws and effectively spit in the face of our people and our nation with your child, you are not giving your child a better life. [01:25:03] In fact, you are going to cause tremendous suffering to them. [01:25:05] So what do you do with all of the people who got birthright citizenship and then they grew up, you know, in China, for example? [01:25:12] Terminate it. [01:25:13] So just say no more birthright citizenship. [01:25:16] But what if? [01:25:18] I'm willing to negotiate on that where it's like your parents are Canadian and they live here part-time and you were born here, so you're a citizen. [01:25:24] I'll go like the birth tourism stuff. [01:25:26] Gone in two seconds. [01:25:28] So, do you, what do you think the court's going to rule on that? [01:25:31] I actually would not be surprised if there is a ruling, it depends on if they go broad or narrow. [01:25:38] If they go narrow, then it might just be like a case. [01:25:40] They tend to go narrow. [01:25:41] Yeah, I think they're going to go narrow. [01:25:43] I think Thomas Alito and Kavanaugh are probably going to be a bit more based, with Thomas Enlito, of course, being perfectly based, and the rest are going to be the least based possible. [01:25:53] The ACB is automatically based on the base. [01:25:54] Yeah, Sotomayor and I do think there is Kagan. [01:25:58] Yeah. [01:25:59] I do think there is space. [01:26:00] I'm not a biologist. [01:26:01] What's her name? [01:26:02] Sodomaior. [01:26:02] I wouldn't know. [01:26:03] Oh, you're talking about Katashi Brown Jackson. [01:26:06] Yeah. [01:26:06] Good lord. [01:26:06] I just know her as not a biologist. [01:26:08] Yeah. [01:26:09] There's a Supreme Court case called Wong Kim Mark that they're in part deciding in this case. [01:26:15] That's the original from the 1870s. [01:26:17] Exactly. [01:26:17] Yeah. [01:26:18] And I think there's a way that even under Wong Kim Ark, you could say that the way Trump has gotten rid of birthright citizenship is lawful. [01:26:28] And they could read it narrowly. [01:26:30] There's actually a good law review article out about this from one of my former counsels. [01:26:36] But it would be unlikely to be grandfathered in. [01:26:38] That would be unlikely. [01:26:40] Right. [01:26:41] I mean, if somebody was, let's say somebody was born in California to Chinese mom who came to the U.S. simply to have the baby and then have the child have American citizenship, grows up in China the whole time. [01:26:56] And let's say that was in 2013. [01:26:58] Even if Trump eliminates birthright citizenship, that doesn't do anything for that. [01:27:02] Those cases. [01:27:03] Well, yeah, it's like all of them. [01:27:04] How would it? [01:27:05] I mean, if they rule, if they rule broad, it will. [01:27:11] It's whether they're subject to the jurisdiction thereof. [01:27:13] That's the language from the Congress. [01:27:15] Right, no. [01:27:15] I disagree with that. [01:27:16] I think the obvious goal with the 14th Amendment is to say the people that were born here after, like, we're concluding the Civil War, all of these slaves, they were born here, they're citizens too. [01:27:29] And then the far left is like, and this means anyone at any point born here, even if they're the reason why they said subject to the jurisdiction of the United States is that the slaves in the United States were subjects of the U.S. government. [01:27:42] Yeah, exactly. [01:27:43] And if you come into the United States, you have what's colloquially referred to as an anchor baby. [01:27:49] I don't think you are subject to the jurisdiction there. [01:27:51] No. [01:27:52] Yeah. [01:27:52] No, we actually have treaties with other countries as to your status. [01:27:56] And everybody that makes remarks about, oh, well, you know, they're like, well, you know, that's what the Constitution had said. [01:28:00] And I understand when you read it verbatim, I understand that. [01:28:06] But at the same time, this was written before there was all these generous social programs. [01:28:11] So like it used to be where if you come to the U.S. and you become a citizen, it was just like, all right, good luck. [01:28:18] But now it's like you come to the U.S., you get Social Security, you get all these sorts of benefits. === Update On Crenshaw Campaign (14:55) === [01:28:22] Brandon Herrera is now down by 0.3. [01:28:25] Literally just 10 votes. [01:28:27] Brandon Herrera is trailing Tony Gonzalez by just 10, 10 votes. [01:28:31] So with 4,509 votes currently in, every time we get a new update, Tony Gonzalez drops further. [01:28:38] I believe in the next update, it will flip. [01:28:40] That being said, still only 7% of the votes are currently in. [01:28:45] So let's just... [01:28:46] To avoid a runoff, he needs... [01:28:48] Fingers crossed. [01:28:48] What? [01:28:49] To avoid a runoff, he needs what, 60%? [01:28:51] Is that how it works? [01:28:52] It has to be within a certain amount of votes. [01:28:54] That's why I'm not going to be able to do it. [01:28:54] Well, look, Keith Barton and Francisco Kinseco are so low. [01:28:58] I don't think it's going to matter. [01:29:00] What if he just ends up flipping entirely? [01:29:02] Then, you know, 40,000 votes come in and it's like 80% Brandon Herrera. [01:29:07] My wife just put $1,000 on Brandon. [01:29:09] Did she really? [01:29:10] Very good. [01:29:11] On Kalshi? [01:29:12] Yeah. [01:29:13] But you don't win that much. [01:29:15] I know. [01:29:15] $1,000 for penny bags. [01:29:18] You'll win $278. [01:29:19] That's fine. [01:29:20] Pay for my meal. [01:29:22] Just your meal. [01:29:23] Just my meal. [01:29:24] Not even your wife's. [01:29:25] Dollar doesn't do what it used to do. [01:29:27] We'll bring some home. [01:29:29] Yeah, there was some controversy on Caul Shi over the death of Khomeini because there was a wager, will he be out of power before, and that's like April 1st. [01:29:39] It was like March 1st, April 1st, September. [01:29:42] And he died. [01:29:45] And so a lot of people were like, that counts. [01:29:46] And Kaul Shi said, we have never had wagers on death. [01:29:50] It's always removed from office. [01:29:52] But here's the problem, I suppose, is that that guy's never, it should have been 99% zero. [01:29:58] Like, never going to happen. [01:29:59] He's the supreme leader. [01:30:01] He's never going to be removed from office. [01:30:02] The only way he exits office is after his body exits reality. [01:30:06] And so I think a lot of people made the assumption because on polymarket, it is. [01:30:11] If you're dead, that counts. [01:30:12] And so Kaul said, no, no, no, no. [01:30:14] If they're dead, they stop it where it is and then do a fair market value payout. [01:30:19] So, you know. [01:30:21] Yeah, I mean, we'll see how it goes. [01:30:24] I do think that Brandon's going to pull it out. [01:30:26] It's just maybe just my hope speaking, but, you know. [01:30:32] I have full confidence. [01:30:33] He's in a really good campaign. [01:30:34] He was knocking doors. [01:30:35] I mean, he's doing everything he's supposed to do. [01:30:36] Yep. [01:30:37] Yeah. [01:30:37] I saw him out there with him. [01:30:38] And Tony Gonzalez was embroiled in a huge scandal that broke right before this primary. [01:30:47] So you got multiple Congress people calling for him to resign. [01:30:50] Really? [01:30:51] Yeah. [01:30:52] Wow. [01:30:52] And that's why they assume Brandon Harris is going to win. [01:30:54] I mean, it's going to be epic if he wins. [01:30:57] I hope the first thing he does is he just goes to Thomas Massey and they both have a bill together, co-sponsored. [01:31:01] That's like the NFA is hereby repealed effective, you know, April 1st. [01:31:06] Wouldn't it be? [01:31:07] I was torn about him running because if he does win, I was worried about Range Day going away. [01:31:11] It's a range day every year that gets to Alto. [01:31:13] And I was like, Brandon, we're still going to do it. [01:31:15] Just going to be a Congressman rather instead. [01:31:17] It's going to be a what? [01:31:17] It's going to be a Congressman out there instead. [01:31:19] Yeah. [01:31:21] Range Day with Range Day outside of DC. [01:31:24] Maybe he'll do it in Virginia or something. [01:31:26] We did that in Vegas last time. [01:31:27] Went to Scotto Range. [01:31:28] Oh, okay. [01:31:29] Yeah. [01:31:29] Oh, my God. [01:31:29] What a beautiful range. [01:31:31] Awesome. [01:31:32] Yeah, I haven't had a chance to make it out any of the range days. [01:31:36] The last one just this past year was like right when my kid was going to be born. [01:31:40] So I'm like. [01:31:41] We had Tony Moon out there, rooftop Korean. [01:31:44] Oh, yeah. [01:31:45] I actually had him taking shots from a rooftop downrange. [01:31:47] It was so much fun. [01:31:49] That's great. [01:31:51] He's a good dude. [01:31:51] I follow him on. [01:31:52] Oh, man. [01:31:53] He brought his kids out. [01:31:54] What? [01:31:54] You brought his two kids out. [01:31:55] Oh, did he, really? [01:31:56] That's good stuff. [01:31:56] Good dad. [01:31:57] He wrote a book recently. [01:31:58] He did. [01:31:58] He did get a book. [01:31:59] Buy his book to everyone. [01:32:00] Yeah, you should buy somebody. [01:32:02] Can they get us the results faster here? [01:32:04] Come on. [01:32:04] No, they're not going to get us the results faster. [01:32:06] Cornyn is still up by 3.1 points, but Ken Paxton is slowly closing in. [01:32:13] Austin's not reporting yet. [01:32:14] That's going to be interesting. [01:32:15] It's going to go Cornyn Heavy. [01:32:16] Yeah, I think that'll go Corny. [01:32:18] Just because of the makeup of Austin. [01:32:20] 1.1 million votes already being tricked. [01:32:22] Anna Bender, 11,462 votes. [01:32:26] Wesley Hunt, 144,000. [01:32:28] I always wonder how it is lesser-known candidates. [01:32:30] I don't know who these people are. [01:32:32] Wesley Hunt? [01:32:33] I know Wesley Hunt, but Anna Bender, I don't know. [01:32:35] It's their backyards. [01:32:37] They probably stay in their backyard just campaign within a good 50-mile radius. [01:32:41] Oh, Jasmine Crockett, she getting crushed. [01:32:43] It's getting worse. [01:32:45] She's down almost 100,000 votes. [01:32:47] That's racist. [01:32:51] Of course it is. [01:32:52] Greg Abbott's clearly got this. [01:32:55] Nobody voting against him. [01:32:56] Yeah, he's extremely popular in Texas. [01:32:58] Gina Hinayosa is dominating the Democrat governor primary race. [01:33:04] I've never heard of her. [01:33:05] I don't know. [01:33:07] Lieutenant Governor, you got Dan Patrick. [01:33:10] No one cared to the Democrat. [01:33:12] For the Attorney General, Mays Middleton. [01:33:13] This will be interesting because Ken Paxton's out. [01:33:16] So it looks like it's going to be Mays Middleton. [01:33:19] Is that a woman? [01:33:20] A lot of my people were voting for Chip Roy. [01:33:23] All the fence about him. [01:33:25] I think Chip Roy's one of the better members of Congress. [01:33:30] Not to say that he's a good member of Congress, but he's one of the better members. [01:33:33] You know, most of the Republicans. [01:33:36] Dan Crenshaw's losing. [01:33:37] Yeah. [01:33:39] He's going to lose. [01:33:40] Yeah, he's going to lose his seat. [01:33:41] He's going to lose his seat. [01:33:42] Check us out. [01:33:43] 58% reporting, and he's down almost 20 points. [01:33:48] Yep. [01:33:48] Wow. [01:33:49] That's such a bummer, man. [01:33:51] When he got in, we were so excited. [01:33:53] And then it's kind of a disappointment. [01:33:54] Yeah. [01:33:55] Very much so. [01:33:55] Very much so. [01:33:56] Just he was like, what did he snap at that little girl or whatever that thing was? [01:34:00] And like, man, he got made fun of by what's his face on SNL? [01:34:05] That was pretty bad. [01:34:06] Yeah. [01:34:06] Yeah, and then he just kind of was a dick. [01:34:08] And we invited him on the show and he canceled on us twice, I think it was. [01:34:10] Twice. [01:34:11] Yeah, that's rude. [01:34:12] Some bitch. [01:34:13] And I was like, we weren't even going to be completely, it wasn't going to be completely filled with acrimony. [01:34:21] Like, it was going to be probably, you know. [01:34:24] A little acrimony. [01:34:25] A little bit, like a little debate, a little pushback. [01:34:27] But we're not, we were not the hardcore anti-Den Crenshaw people. [01:34:31] But you know what? [01:34:32] Maybe Steve Toth is the guy. [01:34:34] You know, I use acrimony in my first interview in the panhandle, which it's a good word, but it just doesn't play great in the panhandle. [01:34:42] Of course not. [01:34:42] See, I'm never going to run for office because I like to use big words and stuff. [01:34:46] You know what I mean? [01:34:48] My dad's going to be a little bit more. [01:34:48] Never going to refer out the Pensacoli. [01:34:50] They're quite often. [01:34:51] It's kind of a pretentious word. [01:34:52] I could have used, you know, I don't know. [01:34:56] Foment violence or animosity. [01:34:58] Yeah, animosity or something. [01:34:59] Acrimony. [01:34:59] Do you have a campaign website? [01:35:01] Acrimony. [01:35:01] I do. [01:35:01] You should announce that to a connection. [01:35:03] Rogers4Florida.com. [01:35:04] That's cool. [01:35:05] That's the one. [01:35:05] That's the one. [01:35:07] Yeah. [01:35:07] Just RogersForFlorida. [01:35:09] Wow. [01:35:09] I mean, this is pretty crazy because he's getting smashed. [01:35:11] Yeah, Dan Crenshaw. [01:35:12] 58% in, and he is getting smashed. [01:35:15] He must be feeling pretty bad about now. [01:35:17] Poor Dan Crenshaw. [01:35:18] Looking for a little backup plan. [01:35:20] Maybe if he would come on shows like this and actually defend himself. [01:35:23] And then he got into it with Sean Ryan. [01:35:25] Was it? [01:35:26] Was that something that happened? [01:35:26] Yeah. [01:35:27] He should beef up his LinkedIn. [01:35:29] I'm tweeting. [01:35:29] Oh, no. [01:35:33] I don't even have a LinkedIn. [01:35:35] Oh, no. [01:35:36] Yeah, the back and forth with Sean Ryan really. [01:35:38] I had a LinkedIn, and every time I've tried to use it, I end up not knowing the password, and it gets all screwed up. [01:35:43] And so I have to make a new one just to see whatever the thing is. [01:35:46] I love this. [01:35:47] Whatever the trans activist professor at Oregon State that I'm looking at. [01:35:52] While we're waiting on the results, I got to play this clip for you guys. [01:35:55] Are there measures being taken not to eliminate other possible alternatives to leadership? [01:36:01] This is war, and we're taking out the threat. [01:36:04] And if you're part of the threat, then you have the your target. [01:36:07] There you go. [01:36:08] There it was, said by Zetter. [01:36:09] This is war. [01:36:10] And we're not going to dwell on the last 50 seconds of this video. [01:36:14] No, I'm just kidding. [01:36:15] Let's listen to the rest. [01:36:15] It's funny. [01:36:16] What we call not all the arrows, but going after the archers. [01:36:22] You'll concede this is war. [01:36:23] We haven't declared war. [01:36:24] They declared war on us. [01:36:25] We haven't warned. [01:36:25] There we go. [01:36:27] We haven't declared war. [01:36:27] Just now you said just this school. [01:36:30] They called it war. [01:36:31] What I was saying is. [01:36:32] Okay, well, that was a misspoke. [01:36:33] What I was saying is they declared war on us. [01:36:35] But war is ugly. [01:36:37] It always has been ugly. [01:36:39] But we're taking out a regime that's crazy. [01:36:43] This is why people hate Congress. [01:36:45] That's for quite some time. [01:36:46] But you're not conceding this is war. [01:36:47] We have declared war. [01:36:49] So if we haven't declared war, then I don't see that. [01:36:53] The president asked us to declare war yet, but they have declared war on us. [01:36:57] We're just simply fighting the threat that's been at our door for 47 years. [01:37:04] It is really at our door. [01:37:06] There you go. [01:37:07] It's not really at our door. [01:37:09] No. [01:37:10] Is there anybody else running that we Al Green? [01:37:12] He's winning, right? [01:37:13] Is that? [01:37:13] Al Green's running. [01:37:14] Yeah. [01:37:15] He's the worst. [01:37:17] He's just terrible. [01:37:19] Tony just jumped up by another. [01:37:21] Oh, he may. [01:37:22] He jumped? [01:37:22] Yep. [01:37:24] Tony. [01:37:25] Wait, I'm not seeing that in the New York Times. [01:37:28] NBC News. [01:37:29] NBC News. [01:37:31] So Tony just took a lead from Brandon. [01:37:33] No. [01:37:34] So he's up 12,754. [01:37:36] Brandon's at 11,068 with 46.2. [01:37:39] Nah, we're just going to look at this one. [01:37:41] We're just going to look at this one. [01:37:42] What are you doing, Tony? [01:37:43] It makes me feel better. [01:37:44] Green is down. [01:37:45] That would be nice. [01:37:46] I'd like to see Green lose. [01:37:47] Did I just pull? [01:37:48] Oh, here's 68% in. [01:37:50] He's at 43%. [01:37:52] Oh, my God. [01:37:53] He's amazing. [01:37:54] Who's Christian Menafe? [01:37:55] I hope he's worse. [01:37:58] Is it possible to be worse? [01:38:00] I got to be honest. [01:38:01] These guys might actually be a lot better. [01:38:03] I would love moderate libs. [01:38:05] Yeah, moderate libs is what we're looking for. [01:38:07] I mean, I do think that the Democrats have really done the American people a disservice by offering zero viable candidates. [01:38:14] Oh, this is so awesome. [01:38:15] Well, the internal polling with the Democrats is the Democratic Party is losing to their own Democratic Party. [01:38:20] Yeah, I mean, the far left has really taken over that thing. [01:38:23] You know, that's how we end up with Mamdani and AOC. [01:38:26] I saw a tweet the other day that said that most of the Democrats, something like 55 or 60%, want more progressive politicians. [01:38:34] Yeah, well, I mean, there was a story out of Axios the other day. [01:38:38] Yeah, Crenshaw looks like Crenshaw lost. [01:38:40] He's doing. [01:38:41] Have they called it? [01:38:43] Why aren't they giving us the update on Tony Gonzalez here at the New York Times? [01:38:46] But anyway, a lot of Democrats are looking for AOC to be the heir to Bernie Sanders and run in 2028. [01:38:53] And that's like a Democrat thing. [01:38:54] They want her. [01:38:55] So we got NBC News. [01:38:57] I think she could win, but I thought Crockett could win too. [01:38:59] Oh, Brandon just got knocked way down. [01:39:02] I mean, that's not looking good. [01:39:04] Damn. [01:39:04] Yeah, he's down six points. [01:39:08] That is significant. [01:39:09] Is there a map up? [01:39:13] The maps that we have. [01:39:14] No. [01:39:15] Yeah, the 270 to win map doesn't include all the individual little houses. [01:39:19] Oh, wait, it does. [01:39:20] Does it? [01:39:20] It does. [01:39:21] Okay. [01:39:22] Let's find 23. [01:39:24] There's no map, though. [01:39:25] My buddy's running in 32 right there, Jace, but he's, I think he's clinched it. [01:39:30] Oh, yeah. [01:39:31] He's crushed it, bro. [01:39:32] 70% in. [01:39:33] He's got 51%. [01:39:34] Let's go, Jace. [01:39:35] He's a stud. [01:39:36] Let's go. [01:39:38] Tony Gonzalez. [01:39:39] Can you believe it if he wins? [01:39:41] 62%. [01:39:42] You might lose $1,000. [01:39:43] Yeah, it's just money. [01:39:47] That's so disheartening. [01:39:48] I mean, I'm not trying to look at that. [01:39:50] Haul she markets got him at 62%. [01:39:52] And again, that's why I was saying, like, I don't want to be a dick, but would the machine state ever allow someone as based as Brandon Herrera? [01:40:01] Like I said, considering he was within 400 points, I mean, 400 votes last time, and to think he could, you know, not up when Gonzalez has this terrible, you know, scandal that's going on, it makes you get a little bit blackpilled. [01:40:16] You're just like, you know, Crenshaw's gone. [01:40:19] How on earth does that happen? [01:40:22] All right, let's see. [01:40:24] Let's see if we got an update on the Crenshaw. [01:40:27] Al Crenshaw's cooked. [01:40:28] Yeah. [01:40:28] 57% in. [01:40:30] He's done. [01:40:30] Yeah, he's down nearly 20 points. [01:40:33] This is going to be interesting, though, looking at the midterms going forward. [01:40:35] You see a lot of these people who held office for a long time getting ousted in the primaries. [01:40:40] That might be a good indicator that people are watching what's going on. [01:40:43] And a lot of the issues I have with Republicans is they fall asleep during the midterms. [01:40:48] But if we're seeing people get their seats flipped like Crenshaw, that is a significant indicator that maybe midterms won't look like what a lot of people are predicting. [01:40:55] Isn't it kind of wild that Al Green did as well as he did? [01:40:59] What was that? [01:41:00] Oh, Al Green just got a big jump. [01:41:01] Oh, did he? [01:41:02] Yep. [01:41:03] He's down by only 5.7. [01:41:05] I'm saying, isn't it crazy he's done as well as he did? [01:41:07] Yeah, he's such a clown. [01:41:08] I mean, he's crazy. [01:41:10] There's so much, like, incumbents have such an advantage in Congress and stuff because the people that know who's running, most people can't even identify their own congressperson, never mind, you know, actually go out and be bothered to go out and vote for him. [01:41:27] So people in Congress that are in Congress, they have such an advantage. [01:41:31] And it's a shame because there's so many people in Congress that need to be primary and removed and stuff. [01:41:37] I mean, it seems like the only kind of silver lining is it looks like Crenshaw's not going to be another guy anymore. [01:41:46] But it is a drag. [01:41:49] They've called it for K-Rabble with 0% reporting, running unopposed. [01:41:55] Hey, I don't know if that's good or bad, but congratulations, Democrat. [01:41:58] Kyle. [01:41:59] Because he's in Tom Sells' district. [01:42:01] Is that who it is? [01:42:02] Yeah. [01:42:02] He's got that hat on, the 10-gallon hat, so you know he's a real Texan, even though he's the kid. [01:42:10] I'm a real Texan. [01:42:11] What do they call it for? [01:42:12] He's a boy who's into castration. [01:42:14] Kay Self. [01:42:15] You know who. [01:42:15] Hey. [01:42:16] Keith Self, the incumbent, has defeated Mark Nugent. [01:42:18] I don't know if that's good or bad. [01:42:19] He doesn't even have a picture up there. [01:42:21] Let's see what he got. [01:42:22] Self is a weird last name. [01:42:23] You know what else is a weird last name? [01:42:25] It's person. [01:42:25] Person. [01:42:26] I've never met a person whose last name is person, actually. [01:42:29] I've seen it out there. [01:42:31] If my last name was person, I'd name it Guy. [01:42:33] Guy person. [01:42:34] People would be like, that's not a real name. [01:42:37] My parents hate me. [01:42:37] Dude. [01:42:38] Like Northwest. [01:42:39] Everybody was like, Tim, you should name your son or daughter Gene. [01:42:42] Either way, it works. [01:42:43] Yeah. [01:42:44] G or J. [01:42:45] And then I was like, because I hate my child. [01:42:46] Yeah, don't hate your child. [01:42:48] What if it's a boy MM Sess? [01:42:50] That's terrible. [01:42:52] Sess. [01:42:53] Cess person? [01:42:54] No. [01:42:55] Cess Poole. [01:42:55] Oh, Cess Poole. [01:42:56] Oh. [01:42:56] Cess person. [01:42:58] It's terrible. [01:42:59] Gene person? [01:43:01] Gene pool. [01:43:02] Yeah. [01:43:03] The things that people do. [01:43:05] I've met. [01:43:06] Have you ever noticed there's a weird correlation between people with people's jobs and their names? [01:43:09] Really? [01:43:10] Like what? [01:43:11] I forgot what the fine one is called, but let me pull up some examples of it. [01:43:16] I think I used to do it, right? === Poker Names Revealed (03:11) === [01:43:17] I think one of the best examples is Chris Moneymaker. [01:43:21] Yeah. [01:43:21] What do you think he does? [01:43:23] Makes money. [01:43:23] I think he's a poker person. [01:43:24] I think he's a bank. [01:43:26] He's one of the most famous poker brands. [01:43:28] Doyle Brunson, Chris Moneymaker. [01:43:29] These guys are. [01:43:30] Moneymaker is one of the most famous poker pros. [01:43:34] He's famous for being he won what's what's called a satellite tournament, which is a small, cheap, like amateur thing where you're trying to win. [01:43:43] You're trying to win a seat to the actual tournament, and then he won the tournament and it created this boom where it was like you could be a regular guy and win $3 million. [01:43:53] And his name is Moneymaker. [01:43:55] Love to see it. [01:43:56] Yeah. [01:43:57] We just went with a traditional yellow name. [01:44:00] He should be one of the guys that works at the Federal Reserve. [01:44:03] I know, right? [01:44:05] Moneymaker. [01:44:07] It would make sense. [01:44:09] You've still got multiple districts not voting yet and like multiple zero votes in yet. [01:44:16] They're smaller counties. [01:44:17] It's called an aptronym. [01:44:19] Atronym. [01:44:19] Yeah, when somebody coincidentally has a job, Usain Bolt. [01:44:25] Oh, yeah. [01:44:26] He's the fastest printer. [01:44:27] There's a meteorologist named Amy Freeze and another named Sarah Blizzard. [01:44:32] Sarah Blizzard is good. [01:44:33] That's good. [01:44:34] There's numerous Dr. Butts who are partologists. [01:44:37] Like, bro. [01:44:37] I know a Dr. Butts. [01:44:39] Why, for the love of all that is holy, would you have the last name Butts and be like, I'm going to be a partologist? [01:44:44] Yeah. [01:44:44] It's just your calling. [01:44:45] You're like, I have to do it. [01:44:46] You're the ass-man. [01:44:49] What movie was the license plate Assman? [01:44:52] It was Seinfeld. [01:44:53] It was Kramer. [01:44:54] The wrong vanity license plates. [01:44:56] So there's a concept. [01:44:58] There's a concept called nominative determinism, which is a hypothesis that people will gravitate towards careers that fit their names. [01:45:06] And the general idea is it's like, if you will it, there's a way, or the inverse of out of sight, out of mind, when your whole life you keep hearing that word or, you know, you gravitate toward those things. [01:45:17] I will say at the same time, many people's last names are literally just based on the job they had. [01:45:22] They're like or the son of the person. [01:45:26] Right. [01:45:27] Smithsky know. [01:45:28] And where you're from. [01:45:29] Well, that's like somebody who is a Smith. [01:45:31] Like your last name is where you're from. [01:45:33] John of Barcelona, you know, something like that. [01:45:36] Yeah, that's the, that's the, in the Middle East, a lot of people like, if you're like Al Kuwaiti, it's from Kuwait or whatever. [01:45:42] There's also, if people don't know this, Berg means hill in German. [01:45:47] Means hill? [01:45:48] Yeah. [01:45:48] I'm pretty sure. [01:45:49] I don't speak German, but there's a lot of places called Berg. [01:45:52] And people now associate Berg with city, but it referenced like John's Hill. [01:45:58] Yeah, the names in my family, like on the Norwegian and the Yankee side, they're all pretty traceable to like the thing that it was, you know, like resident of this valley. [01:46:10] Berg and the sermonaine is primarily of German, Dutch, and Jewish origin, and it means castle or fortress. [01:46:16] Berg in German and Swedish means hill or mountain. [01:46:21] You conquered who first and renamed it. [01:46:22] That's kind of what? [01:46:24] You conquered who first then renamed it. [01:46:26] Bergesnaut. [01:46:27] Bergesnaut Castle. === Sleep, Beam, Dream (03:24) === [01:46:29] Yes. [01:46:30] Oh, no. [01:46:33] Tony Gonzalez took another big jump. [01:46:35] Rough. [01:46:36] Oh, no. [01:46:37] It's crazy that people would vote for that guy. [01:46:39] Yeah. [01:46:39] So if I bet against Brandon right now, what's his name? [01:46:43] 1G. [01:46:44] Wins me 2G's. [01:46:45] Even though he was like, let's kill kids. [01:46:48] Yeah. [01:46:49] So that their parents learn lessons about gun control. [01:46:51] I can't do it. [01:46:52] Oh, God. [01:46:53] I can't do it. [01:46:53] We're still going to bet $999,999 on Brendan Hurricane to win. [01:46:57] If I wager $1 million, I will win back $9,000. [01:47:02] No, it says you can only wager $8,000. [01:47:04] Totally worth it. [01:47:06] Come on, the big money. [01:47:08] I mean, Kalshi's still giving him the odds to win, which is pretty amazing. [01:47:11] Although he's dropped substantially. [01:47:14] Brutal. [01:47:15] So someone just sent me a message saying that Texas primaries need more than 50% to avoid a runoff. [01:47:22] So he may go to a runoff. [01:47:24] Yeah, if he doesn't get over 50%. [01:47:26] Yeah, but is he going to win Keith Barton and Francisco? [01:47:28] Maybe. [01:47:28] I mean, the challengers to Gonzalez have more reason to vote Herrera. [01:47:34] Well, in Bexar County, which one of the largest ones, Barton's got 1,500 votes. [01:47:38] Well, Gonzalez has 8,600 and Herrera has 7,600. [01:47:41] So that's a significant portion. [01:47:43] That's 8% in the largest county. [01:47:45] French cooked. [01:47:46] What do we got? [01:47:47] Al Green. [01:47:49] He's close. [01:47:50] He's close. [01:47:50] We'll see. [01:47:51] Maybe he's going to turn it back around. [01:47:51] It's a 70% reporting. [01:47:53] All right, we're going to go to your super chats and Rumble Rants as we watch these numbers. [01:47:58] Smash that like button. [01:47:59] Share the show with everyone in your life. [01:48:01] Tell them you love them. [01:48:02] Before we do, my friends, we got a great sponsor. [01:48:04] It is shopbeam.com. [01:48:07] Go to shopbeam.com slash Tim Pool. [01:48:10] Pick up your Beam Dream nighttime blend to support better sleep. [01:48:13] I drink this every single night. [01:48:15] I was very happy to be drinking this while I was subdued by convalescence. [01:48:20] Consult your local dictionary. [01:48:22] It's delicious. [01:48:23] I'm a huge fan. [01:48:24] It's got magnesium, altheanine. [01:48:25] It's got racey in it. [01:48:26] It's got meltonin, of course, so it helps you sleep. [01:48:28] They got a bunch of different flavors, cinnamon cocoa, sea salt, caramel, brownie batter. [01:48:32] These are my three favorite flavors, and I switch between them. [01:48:35] The sea salt caramel one's absolutely fantastic. [01:48:37] No added sugar, only 15 calories. [01:48:39] I mix it with some hot water right before bed, drink it. [01:48:41] It's delicious. [01:48:42] And the best part is stay hydrated. [01:48:43] Stay hydrated. [01:48:44] So if you go to shopbeam.com slash Tim Poole, use code Tim Poole, you can get up to 40% off. [01:48:51] Not even a joke. [01:48:52] I don't need no scripts for this Beam. [01:48:53] I'm a huge fan. [01:48:54] I legit drink this every single night, and I have a sleep tracker on my watch and my phone, and my sleep score has legitimately improved by like four or five points on average. [01:49:02] And it's amazing. [01:49:04] If you're a dude, your body produces testosterone and HGH during deep and REM sleep. [01:49:09] If you are not sleeping well, if you are missing those nutrients, you are going to get fat, tired, and sick. [01:49:16] And so obviously on all of those things, consult your nutritionist and doctor, whatever. [01:49:21] But they're going to tell you very much similarly, like you need to get that legit sleep so that your body can get the, you know, you want your testosterone up. [01:49:27] You don't want to be a low-T guy. [01:49:29] You know, nobody does. [01:49:30] So we should lift. [01:49:32] And I recommend Beam Dream. [01:49:33] Not saying I don't prove your testosterone, but you want to get good sleep. [01:49:37] Thanks for sponsoring the show. [01:49:37] Let's go to your Rumble Rants and Super Chats, of course, and see what y'all have to say. [01:49:43] Super Pooper says, everyone here is beyond annoying. [01:49:45] With pleasure. [01:49:47] He says, to hell with your speculation, unless you have the intel that Trump does, STFU, Alex Jones already proved to me he isn't worth listening to. === Wave After Wave (04:50) === [01:49:53] So have many others. [01:49:54] I don't actually know what your argument is. [01:49:56] He's a plan truster and he doesn't approve of people that don't trust the people. [01:50:00] Trust the government. [01:50:01] Trust the government, everyone. [01:50:03] Always trust the government. [01:50:04] Kind of my thesis. [01:50:05] He's arming the Kurds or however you spell their Star Wars name so you can just calm the hell down. [01:50:12] Has there ever, Libby, I have a question for you. [01:50:15] Has there ever, just at any point in U.S. history, been a problem caused by the U.S. arming the enemy faction of an enemy of ours? [01:50:24] That's never happened in America. [01:50:26] Never in Latin America or the Middle East. [01:50:28] The Middle East or Southeast Asia. [01:50:30] Eastern Europe. [01:50:31] Literally never happened. [01:50:33] Literally every time it's backfired. [01:50:35] Every single time. [01:50:36] To be fair, the Kurds aren't really, as far as I can tell, the Kurds aren't enemies. [01:50:41] Like, we actually helped them out. [01:50:43] It never happened ever either. [01:50:44] The Mujahideen weren't our enemies. [01:50:46] We helped them out. [01:50:47] The point that I'm making. [01:50:47] And they blew up the world trade. [01:50:49] The point that I'm making is like the Kurds are pretty pro-America because of the, I believe it was the first Gulf War when Saddam Hussein was gassing them. [01:50:58] They're pro-America because it's convenient right now. [01:51:00] Indeed. [01:51:01] And it's been convenient for a while, and the CIA has been arming them. [01:51:03] They are also communists, too. [01:51:05] Well, and don't they also team up with Antifa? [01:51:08] Isn't that like part of the deal? [01:51:11] Well, they're communists, so maybe. [01:51:13] I've got some friends that actually did, that worked with them during the Iraq. [01:51:17] I've been talking to some people about it just today. [01:51:20] The better argument I'd say is this. [01:51:21] Joshua French says, Iran is not a new war. [01:51:23] We've been at war with them for 47 years. [01:51:25] How many Americans died because of Iran? [01:51:27] See, I actually. [01:51:28] We have always been at war with East Asia. [01:51:30] No, but I think it's fair to say that Iran has been, as a regional power, they wage the war they're capable of waging in the region, and they have been bombing and killing Americans and our allies in the region for some time. [01:51:42] And this is Trump being like, yeah, I'm done with it. [01:51:45] I mean, they were responsible for a lot of the roadside bombs and stuff like that during the Iraq war. [01:51:51] Mythos says, Libby, we won in Vietnam. [01:51:53] They signed a peace treaty that they only broke three years after we pulled out. [01:51:56] We were within 30 miles of the Chinese border in Korea before China got involved. [01:52:00] Indeed, that's true. [01:52:01] We basically won, and then China was like, eh, we're going to fund the other side. [01:52:04] And then just sent wave after wave of their own men against our limited. [01:52:08] That kind of means we didn't really win. [01:52:11] Indeed. [01:52:12] Yeah. [01:52:13] And Russia's using North Koreans right now, aren't they, to fight in Ukraine? [01:52:17] We call it the Zap Brannigan strategy, where you send wave after wave of your own men to just die until you overwhelm the opponent. [01:52:24] You can do that if you're a place like Russia or China because you have that many guys. [01:52:28] Indeed. [01:52:29] And the funny thing is, this actually is Russia's strategy famously in like World War II. [01:52:33] They were just like mass-produced garbage weapons and send as many people just to wipe them out Zerg, we call it. [01:52:39] But the funny thing is, in Futurama, Zap Brannigan famously defeated the Kilbots, and he said he discovered their weakness. [01:52:46] They had a preset kill limit. [01:52:47] So he sent wave after wave of his own men to die until they hit their kill limit and stopped. [01:52:52] And so that's basically the Russia and China strategy. [01:52:56] Yeah. [01:52:57] It's very effective. [01:52:57] That's not really the American strategy. [01:52:59] It's interesting because I think if we're going to do global conflicts and we're going to go in places and do all this stuff and take over places and Cuba's next and whatever else, then it does make me a lot more in favor of autonomous weapons than I previously have been because it would reduce the deaths. [01:53:23] And I'm all in for reducing American deaths. [01:53:26] I mean, like autonomous weapons and stuff like that, those are coming, whether people are comfortable with them or not. [01:53:30] Sure. [01:53:30] I want to stop me from philosophizing about it myself. [01:53:34] I want to stress this from Briggs. [01:53:35] He says, Obama dropped bombs on Libya, Yemen, Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, and others. [01:53:42] Were we at war then? [01:53:43] Simple answer. [01:53:45] Simple answer is yes. [01:53:47] However, challenge is they didn't fight back. [01:53:50] We were just bombing their countries and they just did largely nothing. [01:53:55] Iraq, yes, we were at war. [01:53:57] Afghanistan, yeah, we were at war. [01:53:59] Libya, yeah, we were at war. [01:54:02] And look at the state of Libya now. [01:54:03] We just haven't followed through. [01:54:05] Yemen and Pakistan are the only ones where we can question because Yemen and Pakistan did not engage in armed conflict with us. [01:54:12] So there was no between nations. [01:54:14] So that being said, I would agree. [01:54:16] It's not a fight if I punch you in the back of the head and you fall down. [01:54:19] It was an ambush. [01:54:20] It was a strike. [01:54:21] No fight ensued. [01:54:22] No one struck back. [01:54:24] So when we were bombing civilian targets in Yemen and Yemen was largely just like hiding, like as a government, yeah, I think it's fair to say that we were bombing countries we were not at war with. [01:54:35] Same thing is true for Pakistan. [01:54:37] As for the rest of the countries, we were literally at war with them. [01:54:40] Donald Clinton said we came, we saw he died. [01:54:42] Yeah. === Like, Sure, Trump Is Racist (03:21) === [01:54:43] Don't we think that the United States, since World War II, has been subject to foreign policy loss after foreign policy loss, and that Trump has given us the first sort of strength and the first foreign policy victories ever? [01:54:58] No, I disagree. [01:54:59] I do think that he's given us some of the, I wouldn't say loss after loss or any insinuating kind of weakness. [01:55:06] I would argue that Trump has, with like the Abraham Accords, for instance, hit a grand slam and Jared Kushner credit as well. [01:55:13] It's amazing. [01:55:16] His timeline for withdrawing Afghanistan was great. [01:55:18] Getting our troops out of Syria, absolutely fantastic. [01:55:21] Syria, do your thing, I guess. [01:55:23] Obama was a nightmare. [01:55:25] Obama and Bush were just horrible. [01:55:27] Now, I wouldn't call them weak because, boy, did they blow up civilians? [01:55:30] Whoa, boy. [01:55:31] They loved it. [01:55:31] Yeah. [01:55:32] It was their favorite. [01:55:32] So I have no problem saying I think Trump has been substantially better than all the other presidents. [01:55:39] I've routinely referred to him as one of our first net positive presidents. [01:55:42] I was talking to this guy back in his first term, this black dude, and he was like, you know, I asked him, I was like, you think Trump is racist? [01:55:48] And he's like, hell yeah, Trump is racist. [01:55:50] And I was like, really? [01:55:51] You think Trump's racist? [01:55:52] He's like, yeah, but I also think he's the least racist president we've ever had. [01:55:55] And then I was like, go on. [01:55:57] And he's like, bro, we have presidents who own slaves. [01:56:00] And I was like, indeed, we did. [01:56:01] He's like, right. [01:56:02] He's like, so Trump's racist about some things, but he's the least racist president we've ever had. [01:56:05] That's a good thing. [01:56:06] And I was like, all right, I accept that. [01:56:09] Like, okay, like, we found compromise here. [01:56:11] Yeah. [01:56:11] Like, I don't, I think it's fair to say, if your perspective is that there are some biases that Trump has based on race. [01:56:17] So you're arguing there's some racism there. [01:56:19] I'd go, yeah, probably in like minor things that are not super important the way most people would perceive them to be. [01:56:25] I don't consider him to be, when we say racist, we think like, will he have an aversion to black people? [01:56:29] I don't think that's true. [01:56:30] No, I don't think. [01:56:30] But does he probably have some racial biases? [01:56:32] And he probably does. [01:56:33] That's a fair. [01:56:34] He's the least racist president we've ever had. [01:56:36] I'm said bias is not racism. [01:56:37] Those are two very separate things. [01:56:39] I also think racist is overused. [01:56:41] I think if everything is racist, then nothing's racist. [01:56:44] Of course. [01:56:44] And honestly, a lot of what's attributed to him as being racist is just, it's not racist at all. [01:56:51] I agree. [01:56:52] I like the guy's statement because it turns the left's argument on their head. [01:56:56] Yeah. [01:56:57] Like, sure, Trump is racist and the least racist president we've ever had, which is a good thing. [01:57:01] And then it puts them in a position where it's like, I do agree with you, but here's why it's better than it's ever been. [01:57:05] And then it puts the liberals in a position where it's like, do you agree with this black man who has approached this from, yes, you're correct, but it's still better than it's ever been? [01:57:13] You have to have these liberals concede, like, it's true. [01:57:16] If you think Trump is racist, you have to acknowledge he is the least racist we've ever had. [01:57:21] So I think it's a clever tactic. [01:57:23] Yeah. [01:57:24] You know, I've had some classmates from my grad school that called me racist for running for Congress. [01:57:32] Prisoned. [01:57:33] Yeah. [01:57:33] And if you look at my wedding party, it's like just pretty much the rainbow. [01:57:40] Yeah. [01:57:40] Honestly, Not to be that guy who's like, oh, I have one, but yeah, it's like, okay, you can call me whatever you want, but if you don't have evidence for it, you're just kind of a jerk. [01:57:51] All right, we got this from Cerebral Vagabond. [01:57:52] He says, Tim, please read, I'm a Timcast member and combat veteran trying to leave a bad situation and need to relocate as quick as possible. [01:57:59] Please view my give, send, go page/slash CV0 raised yet. [01:58:04] God bless Go Trump. === Plasma And Young Blood (05:18) === [01:58:05] Well, best of luck there, sir. [01:58:06] Best of luck. [01:58:08] Carl says, Tim, never get sick again. [01:58:10] I'm forced to watch Asmungold and the quartering to get my daily news. [01:58:14] Well, you don't have to. [01:58:16] There are still people here. [01:58:18] But, bro, I just, I've been, I've been more sick in the past, I've more sick in the past eight months than I've ever been in my life. [01:58:27] Like, I've been sick like, what, four or five times since August? [01:58:31] Jeez. [01:58:31] Yeah, I was sick in September. [01:58:33] It was brutal. [01:58:33] You know what I think it is? [01:58:34] To be honest, I'm getting older, but I used to travel all the time. [01:58:38] So my immune system was just bonkers. [01:58:40] And now I don't travel at all. [01:58:43] I'm just here in West Virginia. [01:58:44] So then I start, you know, we go to Austin in October. [01:58:47] We go to D.C. into the club three times. [01:58:50] And all of a sudden, I'm coming out of this one local area where we stay most of the time and I'm getting sick again. [01:58:54] So I just got to build up that immune system and we're going to be traveling again. [01:58:58] We're going, I'm not going to say anything about where we're going, but we're going to be traveling again. [01:59:01] And, you know, probably going to get sick again. [01:59:03] I have three kids, so I just stay sick. [01:59:07] This is the other thing, too. [01:59:09] Because I told my wife, I was like, I honestly think it's the baby. [01:59:12] And she's crawling around on the floor and grabbing everything. [01:59:15] And then I'm grabbing her and kissing her. [01:59:17] Remind me how old she is again. [01:59:19] She's one. [01:59:20] And I'm sure playing with other kids too. [01:59:22] Yeah, and that was the bigger concern that she'd be around other kids is not as much. [01:59:26] And so I do think the travel is the bigger factor, but I'm not going to discount that she's crawling around all over the floor. [01:59:31] And like we do clean, we try to keep everything clean and disinfectant and all that stuff. [01:59:34] But she's grabbing whatever, and then I'm picking her up and carrying her around. [01:59:37] And then I'll give her a kiss on the cheek or the head. [01:59:39] And I'm just sucking in those germs from the ground. [01:59:41] And it's probably not helping. [01:59:42] Are you taking vitamin C and zinc? [01:59:44] Oh, bro. [01:59:46] I probably nearly just like died overdosing on airborne and Zycam. [01:59:50] Any more of the dream then? [01:59:51] Or whatever? [01:59:52] I can't handle that Zycam stuff. [01:59:53] And you're not supposed to chew it. [01:59:55] You're supposed to just let it dissolve in your mouth. [01:59:56] I'm just okay. [01:59:57] But here's the reason why. [01:59:59] It's not meant to be ingested. [02:00:00] It's meant to coat your mouth in zinc to inhibit viral replication in your mouth. [02:00:05] That's fair. [02:00:06] So it's trying to reduce viral load. [02:00:07] It's horrible. [02:00:07] It's horrible. [02:00:08] I think what I will do, though, is I got a really easy solution. [02:00:13] If I ever start feeling sick, I will just get a blood boy. [02:00:17] Oh, sure. [02:00:18] That's great. [02:00:19] Remember that year where the flu wasn't here? [02:00:21] Tim Vampire Pool. [02:00:22] You know, you guys know this. [02:00:23] Like, it's like seven grand or eight grand. [02:00:25] And it's a thing that all, yeah, this is, you didn't know about this? [02:00:28] All the rich terror services. [02:00:30] Brave new world. [02:00:30] This is what all those rich Satanists do. [02:00:33] Well, I mean, not all of them are Satanists, but probably all the rich Satanists do do. [02:00:40] Are all the people who do this Satanists? [02:00:41] Probably not. [02:00:42] There are companies you can call and you say, I'd like to do the plasma. [02:00:47] It's called plasma something. [02:00:49] And they take the blood plasma. [02:00:51] It is scientifically proven. [02:00:53] Plasma pharies. [02:00:54] I don't know if that sounds maybe right, but I'm not entirely sure. [02:00:58] But if you take the blood plasma from a younger organism and transfer it to an older, the older one heals. [02:01:05] And the inverse is true. [02:01:07] That's why. [02:01:08] I thought that's what it was. [02:01:09] That's part of why, like, when women have children, like they get extra, you know, both stem cells. [02:01:14] And if you take an older person's plasma and put it to a young person, they get sick. [02:01:19] Yeah, I bet. [02:01:20] Big tech billionaire who. [02:01:22] Peter Thiel reportedly did this. [02:01:25] And who's that other guy who tries to stay young forever? [02:01:28] He did it with his son. [02:01:30] He had his son give him his blood. [02:01:31] I think there was some article out in Australia, Skynet or something came out and said that actually people who do the plasma pheresis like cycle their blood actually live a lot longer and they have less diseases. [02:01:41] It's a fact. [02:01:41] It's like it heals your organs. [02:01:44] There's a compound in higher density in younger people's plasma that they've actually started to try it. [02:01:50] I was reading about it. [02:01:51] They may want to try and sell it. [02:01:52] I don't know if they are selling it, but they're like, we've isolated the compound in the plasma that's doing the work. [02:01:58] And so now you can buy it. [02:01:59] So anyway, comes with a crazy handle. [02:02:03] Libby, Libby, calling everybody Satanists. [02:02:06] I can be sick for five days or I can hook up young persons' blood into my blood. [02:02:13] Sure. [02:02:13] The old are always willing to sacrifice the young so that they can live just a little longer. [02:02:18] It's capitalism. [02:02:19] I will pay them a fair price for their blood. [02:02:21] I saw something, speaking of capitalism, I saw something about this on the internet, and I was like, look, it's going to be the first chance that Gen Z has to get a money transmon from the boomers to Gen Z and J. [02:02:32] Oh, good God. [02:02:33] They can actually pay them air market rate for their blood. [02:02:38] What if? [02:02:39] What if? [02:02:39] Hold on. [02:02:39] Sell your blood. [02:02:40] Sell your organs. [02:02:42] What if instead of one blood boy, 100 blood children, all giving 1%? [02:02:49] So for most of them, they notice nothing. [02:02:51] We have to keep them on an island or something. [02:02:54] What we should do is we should just hook up a bunch of third world women and have them get impregnated and then just like suck. [02:03:01] We already talked about DACA on the subject of Brave New World kind of stuff. [02:03:05] That is happening in the United States with Chinese billionaires. [02:03:09] They're literally renting wombs in the United States. [02:03:12] 50% of international commercial surrogacy is with China. [02:03:16] Well, do you know it's because in most of the rest of the world, surrogacy is not legal. [02:03:20] Yeah. [02:03:21] Even in progressive social media. [02:03:22] It's not legal in France. === Why Rent Wombs? (01:46) === [02:03:23] We're going to go to the uncensored portion of the show and track the status on this election in Texas. [02:03:28] So smash the like button, share the show with everyone you have ever met. [02:03:32] You can follow me on X and Instagram at Timcast. [02:03:34] Thanks so much for hanging out. [02:03:35] Austin, do you want to shout anything out? [02:03:36] Yeah, no. [02:03:38] So, as I mentioned at the outset, running for Congress in the second district. [02:03:42] And, you know, as you pointed out, thank you for reminding me of the website. [02:03:48] You know, visit rogers for Florida.com, donate, support, and looking forward to, you know, earning your vote. [02:03:56] I'm Adam Johnson. [02:03:57] If you have any money left over after United's campaign, you can donate to mine. [02:04:00] I'm running for Manatee County Commissioner. [02:04:02] It's a great position. [02:04:03] We're going to win. [02:04:04] It's voteadamjohnson.com. [02:04:05] You can follow me on Twitter at LecternLeader. [02:04:09] I'm going to ask you what a commissioner does, but first, I'm going to pump my podcast again, The Pod Millennial. [02:04:15] You can go to thepodmillennial.com and find out all of the links where you can listen to the show. [02:04:20] It's a really great show. [02:04:21] We've had some really great guests so far. [02:04:23] You can go back. [02:04:24] You can listen to Tim Poole, who, of course, you already know and love. [02:04:28] We got into some pretty interesting ideas, so you can check that out. [02:04:32] And yeah, thank you. [02:04:35] I am Phil That Remains on Twix. [02:04:37] The band is all that remains. [02:04:37] You can check us out at allthatremainsonline.com. [02:04:40] We're going on a tour this spring with Born of Osiris and Dead Eyes. [02:04:44] The tour starts April 29th in Albany and goes through the end of May. [02:04:48] You can check out All That Remains Music on Apple Music, Amazon Music, Pandora, YouTube, Spotify, and Deezer. [02:04:53] Don't forget the left lane is for crime. [02:04:55] We will see. [02:04:56] Oh, my bad. [02:04:57] Oh, yes. [02:04:57] I'm Carter Banks. [02:05:00] Still working on an outro, but you can follow me over at Carter Banks. [02:05:04] Follow our label Trash House Records on YouTube. [02:05:07] Thank you so much, Adam and Austin, for coming.