Oct. 16, 2024 - Timcast IRL - Tim Pool
02:01:06
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| Speaker | Time | Text |
|---|---|---|
| I'm absolutely loving this arc right now. | ||
| Donald Trump is trying to earn female votes. | ||
| Kamala Harris is trying to earn male votes. | ||
| They're both having their difficulties. | ||
| And the rumors are now that both Trump and Kamala Harris are set to appear on Joe Rogan. | ||
| The funniest thing about this is that I'm imagining Joe Rogan at home being like, I have no idea what's going on. | ||
| But of course, because he's he's a king of the castle when it comes to podcasting with one of the largest audiences and the largest, probably moderate audience. | ||
| Everybody wants a piece of that pie. | ||
| So Kamala Harris's team all across the media is saying she's going to make an appearance or working on it, whatever it is, they're trying to make it seem like it's going to happen. | ||
| Trump said he believes he is going on Rogan's podcast. | ||
| I wonder how much of this is external media pressure to try and force Joe to accept this, because I'm sitting here being like, Joe ain't said nothing. | ||
| And Joe's show is very straightforward. | ||
| He tells you what he's doing. | ||
| There's no secrets, no secret plans or anything like that. | ||
| I kind of feel like if this was actually his idea, he would have come out of his show and say, yeah, we're talking to him. | ||
| Because he's going to be off the cuff and say, yeah, we're talking to the campaigns. | ||
| Maybe we'll have him on. But there's been nothing, so... | ||
| We'll talk about this and the underlying reasons why it's happening. | ||
| Kamala Harris is now down 13 points on polymarket. | ||
| I'm sorry, I think it's 16 points. | ||
| She's down 13, I believe, in aggregate for all betting markets. | ||
| And Donald Trump is now up 0.7 in the battleground polling aggregate for all states. | ||
| Trump's only losing one and barely. | ||
| So it is looking rather apocalyptic for Kamala Harris. | ||
| We'll talk about that. A bunch of other stories. | ||
| Border Patrol says if Kamala wins, they're out. | ||
| Mass exodus. And then we got this really funny story. | ||
| Oh, you're gonna love this. | ||
| A movie producer, a war game, hypothesizing what will happen if Trump loses and the military, factions of the military and the National Guard join him. | ||
| Well, they don't use the word Civil War, but we started off the show by saying it. | ||
| So, of course, smash that like button, subscribe, all that good stuff. | ||
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| It does help. Joining us tonight to talk about this and everything else is What If Althist's Red Yard Lynch. | ||
| Thank you so much for having me. | ||
| It's a real pleasure. So you're a big YouTuber. | ||
| Do you want to explain who you are and what you do? | ||
| As I like to joke, I am a 23-year-old college dropout without credentials who bets against God. | ||
| And to unpack that... | ||
| That's a heck of an introduction. Thank you. | ||
| To unpack that, I'm from an hour outside Philly. | ||
| I'm 23 years old. I dropped out of school. | ||
| And I've been doing this channel for 10 years. | ||
| I started on my 13th birthday. | ||
| making alternate history content like what if the Nazis won the Civil War and what if the South won World War II and then over time we moved over into anthropology and geopolitics and philosophy and history and that stuff and so trying to look at the patterns in history to predict the future how societies work all that stuff the thing I'm most known for is my prediction that America will spiral into an election into a civil war or a revolution within the next election. | ||
| And I know that's something you've been on for years, so I'm sure it'll be of interest to you and your audience. | ||
| We should have a civil war off and see who can say civil war the most. | ||
| I'm kidding. I'm kidding. Yeah, you have a bunch of really great in-depth analysis. | ||
| And I think, you know, for me going on the surface and saying like, here's a news article and I'll give you my opinion. | ||
| You've done like a deep dive in the historical precedent of what, you know, I think you had one really big video where you talked about listless young men. | ||
| So we're going to get into that because we do have a story that just dropped about the predictions of what happens in less than three months. | ||
| Yo, it's 21 days to the election. | ||
| Yeah. Oh boy, I'm excited. | ||
| Anyway, thanks for hanging out. | ||
| We got Phil hanging out. Hello everybody, my name is Phil Abonte. | ||
| I'm the lead singer of the heavy metal band All That Remains. | ||
| I'm an anti-communist and a counter-revolutionary. | ||
| Hello, Hannah Claire. Hi! | ||
| It's good to see you both. I'm glad you could join us tonight. | ||
| I'm Hannah Claire Brimlow. Let's get started. | ||
| Here's the first story from the Post Millennial. | ||
| Joe Rogan rumored to be in talks to host Kamala Harris on podcast. | ||
| In fact, it's not just Kamala Harris. | ||
| Ford, I'm sorry, Forbes says Trump and Harris may appear on Rogan on Joe Rogan's podcast despite his harsh comments about both. | ||
| Well, that just explains why he should host them. | ||
| You know, it's fascinating that this story, I think, warrants a lead. | ||
| Because we have begged for this. | ||
| It feels like 2020 was a black hole where the things that many of us were saying and asking for went unanswered and only now are starting to be answered. | ||
| For instance, I had said, and it wasn't just my opinion, it was the American conservative, I think it was Pat Buchanan, saying Trump should appoint Tulsi Gabbard for national security or national security advisor or some position. | ||
| And I said, yes, because I'm a big fan. | ||
| We also have been saying endlessly, everybody, that Joe Rogan should be hosting some kind of political debate because we trust him and we know he's going to give us straightforward responses and answers to try and be fair in this breakdown. | ||
| Well, now, Tulsi Gabbard is joining the Trump transition team and will be a part of his administration. | ||
| And the rumors are that Joe Rogan will be hosting Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. | ||
| The question I have is, while the media keeps making these claims... | ||
| Joe ain't said nothing. So I can only imagine Joe's like sitting back, you know, he's working out, smoking a cigar, playing pool or something, and then someone hits him up, be like, hey, Joe, are you doing this? | ||
| He's like, bro, I have no idea what you're talking about. | ||
| What are these crazy people saying? | ||
| I don't even know. I can totally hear it. | ||
| I feel like he's going to his book or being like, what did you promise these people? | ||
| I mean, it is interesting that theoretically this could just be social pressure because there was a backlash when he said, you know, I'm not going to have Donald Trump on. | ||
| I think he made a statement basically saying he didn't want to delve into it. | ||
| And there were a lot of Trump people who had a very strong reaction to it. | ||
| I don't think this is going to happen for two reasons. | ||
| The first is that Joe, as Tim said, never endorsed this. | ||
| It's one of those things where this is just the public doing what the public does and making up jabberings that they want to hear. | ||
| The public just says crap and 90 percent of it never happens. | ||
| And secondly, Kamala's team would never put her on a podcast with Joe Rogan because she lacks the verbal ability to look good. | ||
| Kamala – I don't think she's a completely stupid person. | ||
| Her verbal ability is not very good though. | ||
| And so in a podcast like Joe Rogan, which is not – even if Joe tried to be very friendly to her, his framing is not friendly enough to her. | ||
| And it would just make her look very, very bad. | ||
| And her team knows that. | ||
| And they're very risk-averse in their strategy. | ||
| Yeah, it is fascinating, but I think, I love the way you explained it, the jabberings of the public that just say things that never happen. | ||
| That is true, isn't it? | ||
| The people go on TV, I mean, even me, I'll be on here and I'll be like, you know, here's what I think, and then how much of this stuff actually happens, how exciting is real life? | ||
| But come on, we gotta be hopeful, right? | ||
| I mean, you're right. | ||
| Kamala Harris' team would be insane to put her on Joe Rogan. | ||
| I am hoping they put her on Joe Rogan. | ||
| Yeah, her polls will drop 10 points overnight if she goes on Rogan's show. | ||
| But here's the issue. Donald Trump said on the Nelk Boys podcast that... | ||
| I don't know if he said definitively he is doing it. | ||
| He says, I think we are doing it, didn't he? | ||
| Yeah, he said it. And I wonder if his team has just been talking with Joe saying, like, hey, come on, like, we're going to do this. | ||
| Because I think Joe mentioned at one point he'd be really interested to have that conversation. | ||
| He did intimate a possibility or an interest. | ||
| Yeah. Kamala Harris would have no choice but to go on his show. | ||
| If Trump goes on Rogan, which is Everest of public... | ||
| I mean, look, man... | ||
| I said it before. Joe often says he's just some dumb guy, but he's a really, really great interviewer and he's inquisitive. | ||
| So he's not going to sit there and let you speak BS. And that's why people trust him. | ||
| And that's what people have been saying. We want a Joe Rogan moderated debate. | ||
| Trump's got no problem doing this. | ||
| Joe can sit there and say to Trump, what about this, that and otherwise? | ||
| And Trump is going to bounce, deflect and answer the questions with no problem. | ||
| Kamala can't do that. How can she—I don't see a path forward if Trump—and this is what Rogan said last time, he doesn't want to help Trump. | ||
| If Trump goes on Rogan, Kamala, it's over. | ||
| Yeah. I think—I mean, I do think that Kamala Harris can't do the— Can't handle two or three hours with Joe Rogan talking. | ||
| She's really bad when she's off teleprompter. | ||
| Significantly bad. I don't see her wanting to sit down. | ||
| It does make sense if she were competent because that would be the forum to attract male voters, which is where she's lagging significantly. | ||
| But the risk of putting her in front of Joe Rogan is far too high. | ||
| I mean, the same Joe Rogan that Michael Malice was sitting across and said that if you mock her, it's ableist because she's a retard. | ||
| I sit in that chair. | ||
| I'll go, I'll go. I was just going to say, I think that the challenge is the personality mesh, right? | ||
| And what the person is comfortable doing. | ||
| And we know that Trump is just generally a more comfortable speaker. | ||
| He's comfortable speaking in small groups, one-on-one, at rallies, and she doesn't seem to have that. | ||
| I don't know how many of you, I mean, you probably all watched the Elon Musk appearance on Joe Rogan all those years ago. | ||
| But, you know, Elon Musk is sort of I think? | ||
| He's fine with that. He probably doesn't need any coaxing. | ||
| Even if Joe Rogan wasn't aggressive towards Kamala Harrison anyway, I think she would always be in politician mode and she would never shift into the authentic conversation that Joe Rogan's audience, you know, look for when they're listening to his podcast. | ||
| So, you know, Phil mentioned Kamala needing those male voters. | ||
| So I have to do it. | ||
| I went on Piers Morgan today, and I see a lot of people are chatting about it. | ||
| And there was this lady on the show. | ||
| I don't know who she is. And she made this comment to me. | ||
| I mean, she was really obsessed with me. | ||
| It was kind of nuts. You should watch it. | ||
| It was really fun. Shout out to Piers Morgan. | ||
| And she made a comment about how we as men are not allowed to define what masculinity is because we criticized the men for Harris or whatever ad. | ||
| That was real cringe. And I'm just like, I think it was, was it Vinny from PBD, who was just like, this is why, I think it was him, he said, this is why men aren't voting Democrat. | ||
| Because it's these angry women who call men racist misogynists who aren't allowed to define masculinity. | ||
| Yo, I gotta tell you, I was, I don't know if you guys saw the Bill Maher clip with Buck Sexton. | ||
| And it's amazing that I'm just – I am clapping and cheering, saying thank you for these leftist pundits. | ||
| This woman's on the show, on Bill Maher's show, and Buck Sexton makes the point that there are men who feel aggrieved, and her response is, well, now you get to – she said something like, now you get to experience the inequities that women have felt. | ||
| And he's like – He's like, this is not this is going to cost you voters. | ||
| Men are saying I'm suffering in responses. | ||
| Oh, well, now you get it. | ||
| And then her response to him was, if we are going to have progress, men, particularly white men, are going to feel left behind. | ||
| And that is what progress means. | ||
| And I was like, holy crap, Kamala Harris is going to lose every single dude because they keep doing his interviews. | ||
| They keep doubling down on these talking points. | ||
| Well, I mean, that's the general consensus from the left now. | ||
| At least the politically active left, if you're quote-unquote woke, the general consensus is white men are the problem and they must sit in their discomfort. | ||
| These are things that are said in the literature by people like Robin DiAngelo and stuff. | ||
| White men must sit in their discomforts And they're not to be consoled. | ||
| The point is to make them feel bad. | ||
| The point is to have them be unhappy. | ||
| And people are going to reject that. | ||
| Any right-thinking person that is not motivated by malice is going to say, that is bad and wrong. | ||
| You know, what's funny is when this woman was telling me that men can't define... | ||
| It's like you aren't allowed to define what masculinity is. | ||
| And I was like, you know, that ad was clearly female-coded. | ||
| It was written by women for men. | ||
| And most men are going to look at that and be like, this doesn't in any way relate to my experiences. | ||
| And you know what I think is really important when defining masculinity, men know it. | ||
| Not every single man, but men know it. | ||
| That's why there are leaders. | ||
| That's why there's hierarchy. | ||
| That's why there are men who follow other men. | ||
| There was this really great 4chan post, it's inspiring, it is, and it was this fat dude and he was saying that he went to a gym and he was really self-conscious, he was overweight, but he wanted to make a difference. | ||
| And he sees this super tall, like ripped gym bro walk by and immediately start giving him and pointers and say here's how you do the weights. | ||
| Like, without question, here's how you do the lifts. | ||
| Here's how you do the weights. I want to see this many. | ||
| You can get it, bro. Hey, man, I'll see you tomorrow. | ||
| It's leg day. And then he was like, is this what it feels to have a king? | ||
| I will serve you. This dude was trying to better himself, and this guy came and said, I'm going to help you be better. | ||
| And that's what it felt like. | ||
| Guys, recognize it. | ||
| You look up to—there's somebody doing something that you see as honorable, that you want to be that— And when they make this ad where it's like, I'm not scared of women, it's like, yeah, guys don't relate to that. | ||
| They want to make an ad. | ||
| I'll tell you this. I don't know that you can make an ad that would make Kamala Harris look good in the eyes of men. | ||
| I just really don't. But they'd be better off making... | ||
| Here's what you do. | ||
| Here's how it starts. There's a guy farming. | ||
| He's just a peasant farmer. | ||
| And then Roman legion roll right up on horseback and they say, you are needed to lead us. | ||
| War is coming. He jumps on the horse and he goes. | ||
| He leads them to victory and they say, you have served admirably. | ||
| Will you retain these powers and rule? | ||
| And he says, no. And then he goes back to his farm. | ||
| Kamala Harris, 2024. That's a way more effective ad, the story of Cincinnati's. | ||
| Instead of having a bunch of guys be like, I ain't scared of no woman. | ||
| You know, one of the things, like, I think that there are some inherent things about Kamala Harris that turns guys off. | ||
| Like, just the way that she calls her husband Dougie, like, in public, it doesn't seem respectful, and that makes men say, oh, I don't like that. | ||
| If she can call him Dougie, all she wants at home, like, they can have all the pet names they want, but in public, she should call him Doug, And allow him to not seem emasculated. | ||
| Because that's what Dougie sounds like. | ||
| And I guarantee there are people watching this that are like, oh, you're crazy, blah, blah, blah. | ||
| turned off by that kind of stuff in public. | ||
| You can have pet names in private, you can, like, it's perfectly fine, but there are certain ways that you want to be perceived, that men want to be, certain ways men want to be perceived in public, and they want to be respected by their significant other. | ||
| And other people will pick up on things that sound condescending, and something like Dougie sounds condescending. | ||
| Yes, she is the condescending high school principal who you know is not very good at her job. | ||
| Let's pull up this story from the New York Times. | ||
| Black voters drift from Democrats imperiling Harris's bid poll shows. | ||
| Dude, this is the New York Times, okay? | ||
| And so when the media comes out and says, you know, the corporate press—I understand the New York Times. | ||
| I mean, like, the Democrat media, MSNBC. No, it's not true. | ||
| It's not true. It's like, okay, well, I think there's something to that, right? | ||
| Republicans, and there have been model pundits who have said in 2016 Trump's going to win the black vote. | ||
| He didn't. They said in 2020 he's going to win the black vote. | ||
| He didn't. There's a lot of support right now, but— We're going to wait till Election Day, because I think it's fair to say that the record shows that we may see these signals in the press, but they didn't manifest. | ||
| To be fair, over the past several cycles, we have seen a massive drift from Democrats of black voters. | ||
| And what they're reporting now is this is the biggest shift. | ||
| Away from Democrats since, I think, like 1992 or whatever. | ||
| We have the biggest, for the first time since, or actually I think it's going way back, it's maybe like the first time in generations and decades the Republican Party is now larger than the Democratic Party. | ||
| There's a saying. I saw this in the Wall Street Journal several years ago, that if the Democrats cannot win at least 80% of the black community, they will lose. | ||
| And based on the numbers right now, 2024, the Democrats have 78%. | ||
| So theoretically, if those numbers hold into the election, the Democrats can't win by any stretch of the imagination. | ||
| I don't know. | ||
| Because as much as we are seeing a lot of young black men saying they're going to be voting for Donald Trump, the question is, are they just saying this? | ||
| Or are these young people just less likely to vote? | ||
| It's not a factor of being black. | ||
| It's a factor of being young. | ||
| Young people tend not to turn out. | ||
| You get young people on acts like Harry Sisson bragging up a big game about voting for Biden and then Kamala. | ||
| But then young people still don't turn out. | ||
| So I'm not entirely convinced, but I'm curious what you guys think. | ||
| I think of my home state Pennsylvania as an example, and people often forget the right and the left are coalitions of a lot of other different subgroups inside of it. | ||
| And so Pennsylvania doesn't have that many genuinely like woke people. | ||
| exist but the people in California or New York City who are genuinely really for very progressive social issues. | ||
| We found from studies there are only between 10 to 15 percent of America's population. | ||
| And what happens is if the black vote tilts slightly conservative – and I don't know if it's going to happen this election, but I've noticed a very seismic shift, especially for young black men in their culture towards the right. | ||
| You can see it with 50 Cent. | ||
| You can see it with all the red pill influencers like Myron Gaines, Andrew Tate, like Lil Pump's Not Black. | ||
| But there's this huge move of conservative rappers. | ||
| And I have a weird interest in pop culture. | ||
| This is one of the things people don't know about me. | ||
| But I was watching this video of this guy who's a Korean – he makes Korean jewelry for rappers and then one of the Island Boys. | ||
| And they were debating to their—and they were both Republicans. | ||
| And I thought this would not happen 10 years ago. | ||
| And so the point I'm trying to summarize here is that— The left actually doesn't give that much to most black men. | ||
| They give it to the black ruling class, and I can explain that point further, and then the black ruling class is able to co-opt the entire population. | ||
| But if you got even a relative portion of black young men, you would tilt every single state in the Rust Belt hard red because you look at Pennsylvania, you look at Ohio, you look at Michigan. | ||
| These are states where the white unions are already going, already went from blue to red. | ||
| If you got a certain part of the black population, every single state in the Rust Belt would be as red as Texas or South Carolina. | ||
| I think it's true. One of the things that gets pointed out a lot this election cycle is that Trump is down among white voters than he was in 2016 and 2020. | ||
| And so there is obviously a component to this election in particular where courting racial groups is going to be part of it. | ||
| true of most elections. Trump just has, and this is the Republicans in general now, has the opportunity to continue to gain among, let's say, black men or the black community at large, among Hispanic voters, and we're seeing these numbers play out, as well as white voters, and really secure a victory. This is not true of the DNC, and it's not true of Kamala Harris, in part because of the way they treat different racial groups. | ||
| I think they're ultimately a very racially motivated party, but not in a way that makes others feel empowered, and I think that they would never court the white vote the same way that Republicans are more comfortable doing. | ||
| And so they are dependent on smaller segments of the population, but they don't treat them with respect. | ||
| And that's, I think, what you're seeing with the fallout of Of black voters, especially the difference between the way black men vote and black women vote, they are motivated by different things. | ||
| And ultimately, Kamala Harris maybe can appeal to black women, but she is not able to appeal to black men. | ||
| And so we're getting this large scale scolding, which I don't think will work either, but they have no ability to pivot. | ||
| And to your point, I think some of that has to do with who's staffed. | ||
| I think that you're right. | ||
| A lot of people who are registered Democrats I think? | ||
| The attempts to attract, the ham-fisted attempts to attract male voters actually turns men off. | ||
| Because I know, how bad? | ||
| Do you think that it's just a little bit? | ||
| Because we're right-leaning people mostly around here. | ||
| Do you think that it's just the right-leaning people that are kind of like, ooh, we can see how clearly bad that is? | ||
| Or do you think that normal people that are politically unaffiliated, or do you think they're like, this actually turns me off? | ||
| I was saying that there's a lot of young men, particularly black men, who are saying they're voting for Trump simply because it is cringe to say you're voting for Kamala Harris. | ||
| Yes. It's not even about whether you actually want to vote for Donald Trump or not. | ||
| It's that if you walk up to your group of guy friends and you're like 20-something and you go, yo, I just voted for Kamala, they're going to bust out laughing and be like, what? | ||
| That's just like the weirdest thing to say. | ||
| Saying Trump is basically like saying like, I'm on the outside, I'm punk rock basically. | ||
| It's kind of funny because they don't accept that it is, but when all the major corporations and everyone lines up against them, you're like, yeah, I'm the bad guy, I'm the rebel. | ||
| And so you want to vote for Trump. | ||
| They say he's a threat to democracy, J6 and all that stuff. | ||
| So when they come out with these ads, and they got these guys and he's like, I eat carburetors for breakfast. | ||
| He said carburetor, right? | ||
| How many guys are fixing carburetors these days? | ||
| Yo, honest question. | ||
| What year was the last year cars had carburetors? | ||
| I get it. Like, farm equipment I think still does. | ||
| When I worked at O'Hare, they have tugs. | ||
| Tugs have carburetors. But do guys talk about fixing carburetors? | ||
| No. It's like someone Google searched how to be manly from the 1930s or from the 50s, and they were like, let's just roll with that. | ||
| Yeah. An important thing to keep in mind, and we had a recent... | ||
| There was a study that said that the average Republican has three times as accurate a psychological assessment as the average Democrat than vice versa. | ||
| And so in this study, when they asked Republicans and Democrats to predict the positions the other party had, the right had an assessment of the left's predictions three times as accurate as vice versa. | ||
| And you can discount a single study, but we found this consistently where – and this is dozens of studies – the right is able to understand how the left thinks and not vice versa. | ||
| And the way I imagine it with the left psychology – and I've made a bunch of videos about the psychology and anthropology behind the right and the left – is you should see the psychology of the people involved as closed emotional circuits where their social networks reward them for being completely emotional and hysterical. | ||
| And if you're not openly hysterical at minor things, you're a bad person. | ||
| So there are social networks that make them exceedingly emotional, but they also have these closed logical loops where they're right by definition. | ||
| So there's no actual interfacing with the world. | ||
| And so when people talk about the elite's I think that's true to a certain degree. | ||
| How other people think. | ||
| Oh, right. | ||
| They said back in the day, or back in the days and thousands of years ago, a dynasty in decline is ruled by harem girls, eunuchs, and bureaucrats. | ||
| We are at the harem girl, eunuch, and bureaucrat phase. | ||
| Harem girls is a good podcast name. | ||
| I'm going to write it down. Actually. | ||
| And there's multiple Chinese dynasties where the emperor didn't know when the capital was being destroyed. | ||
| Taiping Rebellion, the emperor was so drugged out of his mind out of opium. | ||
| He was a weird guy. This is an interesting story. | ||
| I'm not going to get into a weird guy. | ||
| He was living in his harem, drugged out in opium, and he had no comprehension that the war was happening. | ||
| That happened a couple times in Chinese history. | ||
| Wow. Yeah, we're there, man. | ||
| Yeah. You've got politicians that are gargling nonsense. | ||
| I think you make a great point. | ||
| These people have no capability to understand what other people are thinking. | ||
| And we see that's very indicative of the left. | ||
| There's a poll, a survey that I like to cite where it shows moderate voters in the United States get two-thirds of their news from the left and one-third from the right. | ||
| Conservatives get two-thirds from the right, one-third from the left. | ||
| And the liberal and left get 95% from the left. | ||
| Yep. And my response was, right. When she was out in the polls, she ducked the media and avoided the podcast. | ||
| Donald Trump was down in the polls, so he did a bunch of press, even adversarial. | ||
| He went on various corporate press outlets, much to the chagrin of many of supporters saying, you know, they're going to lie about you. | ||
| He's gone on the Nelk Boys. | ||
| He's gone on our show. He's gone on favorable media as well. | ||
| And now that he's up in the polls and dominating, he's avoiding the press, much like Kamala Harris didn't want to do a debate at first. | ||
| Then she did. The polls are shifting and now it's inverting. | ||
| Both parties have taken a similar strategy. | ||
| It is not unique to one side. | ||
| Now, I can say that because I know that this audience here watching the show is well aware of what Trump has done and what Kamala is now doing with the strategy there is. | ||
| But Wajahat, presumably like many of these liberal leftists, consume only MSNBC, CNN, and they're completely unaware of the world around them. | ||
| They live in a bubble. I mean, I think that's something that it would be nice if you could convince your liberal friends of. | ||
| But I feel like the left has a... | ||
| And when I say liberal, I mean more like progressives than liberals. | ||
| But the left has... | ||
| Has an emotional reaction about their politics far more than people on the right or even in the center. | ||
| They believe that the right is evil, which is why you get people saying, oh, Trump is Hitler. | ||
| And now today I've seen people talking about, you know, if Trump dies or if you vote for Trump, you might end up with J.D. Vance. | ||
| And the implication is J.D. Vance is worse than Trump. | ||
| But I thought Donald Trump was already super Hitler, so figure it out. | ||
| With J.D. Vance, we're up to like, it's like ultra, you know, giga Hitler. | ||
| And at some point, people that are not actually leftists have to start addressing the fact that like, wait a minute. | ||
| They're going to start quantifying units of Hitler. | ||
| So they're like, well, Trump is MegaHitler, which means that J.D. Vance is going to be Giga. | ||
| And then whoever J.D. Vance picks for his VP, maybe Vivek in the future, will be TerraHitler. | ||
| And then what comes after TerraBytes? | ||
| MegaHitler. So it's MegaHitler, then MegaHitler. | ||
| MegaHitler is the highest level. | ||
| There will be no highest because there's always someone next who will be worse. | ||
| It scales up. But that's the point. | ||
| You can only keep the intensity at a 10 for so long before people start to say, okay, we can't actually respect these opinions because they're just histrionic. | ||
| Really. And one of the great innovations that the DNC has not embraced is bringing on a new creative campaign strategist. | ||
| Because right now all of them run the same campaign, and this is true in pretty much every state at every level, which is... | ||
| Republicans are so evil that if you let them anywhere near legislation, they will destroy your lives. | ||
| And this is true of the state-level Republicans, of any Republican governors. | ||
| Any Democratic strategist is running the same campaign right now, which is why, since Trump is a known quantity, as soon as they announced J.D. Vance was the candidate, they were suddenly like, oh, someone new to fearmonger about. | ||
| And I've said it before. | ||
| I just think that the American public is fear-exhausted, and especially in the wake of things like, you know, serious hurricanes that leave people devastated. | ||
| This appeal to fear doesn't work, and so they're not going to get the same compliance they're used to. | ||
| Let's jump to this from Polymarket, ladies and gentlemen. | ||
| It's a good day to be Trump. | ||
| He is currently up 15.7 in the polymarket election forecast. | ||
| My friends, I am flabbergasted at this result. | ||
| This is insane. I mean, when we started the show, I think it was way lower than this. | ||
| Now we're getting the rounding up 16. | ||
| 16-point lead for Donald Trump. | ||
| They're saying he's gonna take Pennsylvania. | ||
| He's up 12 points. | ||
| Again, this is polymarket. | ||
| This is betting. | ||
| This is people saying, I'm gonna put my money where my mouth is. | ||
| When we jump to the aggregate betting odds from RealClearPolitics, he's up 13.1 across all betting markets. | ||
| I think money talks and BS walks. | ||
| I think after Kamala Harris has done this string of press trying to improve her numbers because she was sinking, all it did was make it substantially worse. | ||
| If she goes on Joe Rogan, it's the apocalypse. | ||
| I don't see how she turns things around. | ||
| She went on with Charlemagne, the God, and I don't think it's going to do anything for her. | ||
| She's trying. Don't get me wrong. | ||
| But even right now, the top battleground states take a look at this. | ||
| Donald Trump is up 0.7 points across all battlegrounds. | ||
| If you take a look at the National, where Harris is up 1.3, at this time in 2020, Joe Biden was up 9.4. | ||
| Hillary Clinton was up 6.7, and she still lost. | ||
| It is looking very, very much like Donald Trump is going to win. | ||
| That being said, shadow campaign. | ||
| So y'all better get out and vote. | ||
| Because you look at this, you think Trump's going to win. | ||
| If you say Trump's going to win, he's going to lose. | ||
| So I'm going to tell you right now, that 15 point lead, 16 point lead that he's got makes it neck and neck. | ||
| The polls could be wrong, but you know there's going to be shenanigans. | ||
| You've got to swamp the vote. | ||
| That's what Trump's been saying. Everyone's got to go vote. | ||
| You've got to bring your friends and family to tell them, hey, you all got to go vote. | ||
| You've got to register to vote. Make sure because a deadline is coming up for a lot of places. | ||
| Many places already passed. You've got to go vote. | ||
| And then Trump's going to win if everybody goes vote. | ||
| But what do you think? Do you think these betting markets are good or what? | ||
| Or as someone super chatted, are the betting markets just the jabberings of the public that won't come true? | ||
| I publicly said yesterday that I think Trump's going to win. | ||
| I said that in my YouTube community notes. | ||
| I stand by that. And I say these things so that you know I'm not a charlatan because only by being in a place where you can publicly lose do you know if you're just making stuff up. | ||
| I think Trump's going to win. | ||
| I mean... I thought he would win for the last six months because just all of the current seems to flow in his favor. | ||
| Almost every new piece of news is something that makes Trump look better. | ||
| And almost every new piece of news is something that makes Kamala look worse. | ||
| And I mean, just if you look at actions, the left is clearly desperate and the right is clearly optimistic. | ||
| I think Trump's going to win. | ||
| Yeah. I think that these markets are important to look at because it's good to have the data. | ||
| But right now, I'm actually very skeptical of all polling. | ||
| And again, in part, it's because part of the country just got knocked out by this hurricane. | ||
| I mean, how are you polling people in North Carolina in the red counties where they don't have internet right now? | ||
| I think that we've known for a little while, I think it was something one of the major new polls put out, maybe this time, Sienna, that there are like 4% of voters that respond to polls right now say they're undecided. | ||
| And we know of those, actually it's more like 2% are truly, truly undecided. | ||
| The other two probably have an intention one way or the other. | ||
| I think one of the things that Kamala... | ||
| Is never going to be able to overcome and definitely not now this late in the game with so many things to your point working in Trump's favor is that she is up against the personality of a future American folk hero. | ||
| Even if you don't like Trump, he has a very distinct personality. | ||
| He's developed a very unique political movement. | ||
| And they can't just sort of drop Democrats into the same tired campaign and produce someone who becomes someone people are motivated to turn out for. | ||
| I mean, even if they put her on every cooking show in America and she made her collard greens, it's not enough time to make her endearing. | ||
| And if she was endearing, they would have done it by now. | ||
| So they have this sort of paper candidate with a bad platform. | ||
| That, you know, as she releases specifics, and I don't know if we're going to talk about the marijuana conversation today, but it makes people more irritated with her, whereas Trump gives specific, the media gets mad, but the American people listen. | ||
| And to me, I mean, you'll see this reflected in the opinion polls or in betting market odds where Trump is just more likable and there's no way she could overcome that. | ||
| The criticism right now is that Kamala's pitch to black men is free money and free drugs. | ||
| I mean, that is essentially the attempt, but it's just so disheartening that politicians on the left are blatantly trying to purchase votes. | ||
| Like, we'll give you free loans. | ||
| We will give you money. | ||
| It's as close to an offer of a direct cash payment as you can possibly get. | ||
| Joe Biden made the offer of, we're going to forgive student loans. | ||
| And they did some. I know that they didn't do it as broad. | ||
| Not really, though. I mean, they failed on that promise. | ||
| That was the thing about this free money promise. | ||
| They'll say, oh yeah, we'll give you money. | ||
| And people are like, I don't know, maybe. | ||
| But they act without the authority, without the agreement with Congress. | ||
| Thankfully, the Supreme Court has shut them down. | ||
| I don't know the details, but I was under the impression that they did do some kind of programs or something like that, where some were. | ||
| But even still, the point is... | ||
| Our government is not designed to be a service provider. | ||
| It's not supposed to be giving people money. | ||
| It's not supposed to be purchasing votes. | ||
| The point of government is to protect private property rights, to give you courts for redress of grievances, and to protect the border. | ||
| And it's failed at protecting the border. | ||
| It's questionable whether or not the courts are reliable anymore. | ||
| And it definitely doesn't protect private property when it's expropriating property so that way it can redistribute it. | ||
| So the entire government has failed on every level. | ||
| The federal government has failed on every level. | ||
| And the fact that the American people allow it to continue to do this and don't vote for significant change. | ||
| Kamala's out here saying, we're ready for change. | ||
| I just heard her talking about, one of her stump speeches, talking about, we're ready for a change. | ||
| We're ready for a change. It's like... You're coming from Joe Biden's administration. | ||
| There is no change if you get into office. | ||
| And it's just so ridiculous that there is a large enough portion of the American people that are believing this. | ||
| It's frustrating that that is the case, I suppose, is where I'm leading. | ||
| It's frustrating that there are people that think this is an acceptable state of affairs. | ||
| I wonder how many people do feel like it's an acceptable state of affairs. | ||
| I think that there are a portion of voters... | ||
| 42%. The thing is, there are a portion of American voters, and this is true for both parties, I'm not trying to just be anti-left here, but who will vote in compliance with the party no matter what. | ||
| So she could say anything, but if she is endorsed by the Democrats, they're going to vote for her. | ||
| So if we say that's like what? | ||
| I would say that's close to 30% of that percentage, but maybe it's 20. | ||
| The other ones are either people who have decided that she is good or have some other reason for not wanting to vote for Trump. | ||
| I mean, there is this anti-Trump sentiment that exists, although I really think that he is a known quantity. | ||
| He is not this random mystery they can run. | ||
| Kamala Harris just... | ||
| Could not put on a good campaign if she wanted to because there is no connection among her staff and her advisors to the rest of America. | ||
| They don't know how to pitch things. | ||
| And that's why you are seeing... | ||
| And again, obviously we have to acknowledge that her campaign is like, what, three months old? | ||
| She started July 21st. | ||
| But that's why you're seeing a huge late-in-the-game pivot, that she's suddenly doing media. | ||
| Suddenly she wants to have Republicans be part of her cabinet. | ||
| Suddenly she wants to be bipartisan. | ||
| Actually, after her history as a prosecutor, she's... | ||
| She doesn't think you should be arrested for marijuana possession. | ||
| Actually, she is open to all kinds of things and she likes fracking. | ||
| I mean, she wasn't even the same person that she was in July when she announced this candidacy, let alone who she was when she ran on her own in 2020. | ||
| And I think that there is a certain portion of Americans that know that. | ||
| And even though they may ultimately cast a Democratic ticket, it's not because they love Kamala. | ||
| It's because they feel loyal to the party. | ||
| I'm going to throw out a strange combination, Aristotle and game theory. | ||
| So I can explain why both of those vote for those demographics, and it's inside their self-interest if you look at those two things. | ||
| In pre-modern political philosophy, they said that society is an ecosystem of basically different kinds of animals that have different interests. | ||
| So there's the lion on top, there's the bear, whatever. | ||
| It's symbolic. They didn't actually think... | ||
| I think it's important because we view the world as homogenous and the reality is there's a lot of different subgroups. | ||
| And so for game theory studies as an example, consistently you can move 60% of the population by changing the consensus. | ||
| So in multiple game theory studies… If you can change what the consensus people believe, you'll jump from 20% support to 80% support. | ||
| Furthermore, there's a 20% demographic that always try to do good and are selfless, and there's a 20% that are always parasitic no matter what in game theory studies. | ||
| So as a society, its duty is to basically bully the parasitic 20% and then get the 60% to be part of a consensus for the 20% who are selfless. | ||
| That's part of it. Second thing is that Philabonte really got onto this point well of it's the abdication of responsibility for Kamala's side of things. | ||
| So their entire strategy is divesting of the national interest for private interest. | ||
| And this is something Aristotle talked about, where all of Aristotle's political philosophy was based off how do you establish the best incentives for people to not predate from the system. | ||
| And so... What you're looking at here with Kamala's voters is you as an individual will get stuff at the expense of society. | ||
| And this is largely people who don't conceptualize society at all. | ||
| they're not thinking to themselves, if we do this, everything's going to fall apart because that's not in their mental framework. | ||
| And this is why the right and the left have different concepts of money, where the right sees money as something that's actively generated, so if you lower taxes, more money's going to be generated. | ||
| The left doesn't mentally process that and so they just see the money as a pie to divide, so there's a lot of money to the divide and they have no concept – the left has no concept of things as living or as group phenomena. | ||
| And so they'll just say, oh – they also can't make a distinction between individual and group, so for example, if you let one trans person into a women's bathroom, there would be no bad consequences and they choose not to differentiate between that and this is a social standard that will happen for decades because it's a very different matter between let's say when you give money to one friend in distress to your entire society gives all your money to people in distress. | ||
| Right. There's a funny meme where it says, one way to know if you're dealing with someone of low intelligence is to say something that is true, such as, on average, Asians are shorter than Europeans. | ||
| And if they respond with something like, not all Asians, you know you're dealing with a person who can't think in abstract. | ||
| Yes, yes. That's naxalt. | ||
| It's... I'm not going to get into this, but you have theories about tiers of consciousness, and they're basically... | ||
| Naxalt are not all X are like that. | ||
| It's a weird mental tier the left exists in where you're so intelligent you argue yourself back into stupidity. | ||
| Because if you're a tribal people in the Amazon, you just think you leave meat out for the ancestor gods, and the ancestor gods respect you. | ||
| That's a very simplistic worldview, but it works for you. | ||
| Actually, it's not simplistic. | ||
| There's lots of ancestor gods, but we're not going to get into that. | ||
| And so for the left, they're taking from all these advanced authors like Schopenhauer and Hegel, people who are very intelligent Marx, and then they drive it into the stupidest possible conclusion because they think, if I can make an argument, that makes it the correct argument. | ||
| And all of their logic is based upon everyone being the same, everyone being equal, and And then there are no consequences for actions. | ||
| Michael Malice said that he defines the new right simply by asking one question. | ||
| Do you believe that some people are better than others? | ||
| Yeah. I mean— Easy answer, right? | ||
| I don't like Malice's distinction of the right because I think he was looking at it in the 2010s, and I think the ecosystem—I need to make a video about this. | ||
| I was thinking when I was in the hotel here, I need to make a video on the factions of the new right because I think those factions are going to end up dominating national politics in history. | ||
| Random schizos on Twitter now will end up becoming the dominant ideology in 20 to 30 years. | ||
| Wait, wait. Like lefty weirdos on X, you're saying? | ||
| So the problem now is that there's no ideology that makes sense of the world today, which is why we're a civilization that's killing itself. | ||
| And it should be... Another great question. | ||
| Do you think... Real quick, do you mean that there's no dominant ideology? | ||
| So the dominant ideology is leftism, but they're in absence of any ideology. | ||
| They don't believe in anything. They just believe in stopping racism. | ||
| They believe in stopping sexism. | ||
| But it's not even that. | ||
| They are a swarm of bees with no direction. | ||
| Yes. So it's actually, I would describe the left as, have you ever seen the ant circle of death? | ||
| Yeah, yeah. When ants follow a pheromone trail from other ants that lead into a circle, it will spin in a circle until they die. | ||
| That is the left today. | ||
| Yes. Because in their system, everyone's equal, so no one can rise to leadership and give them direction. | ||
| And so they end up following each other with no goal and no pursuit. | ||
| And so when you look at what the left pursues, it seemingly makes no sense. | ||
| They criticize the military-industrial complex but support the war in Ukraine. | ||
| Yes. These things are paradoxical, but Hassan himself on his show in within the span of three minutes did exactly that. | ||
| Yes. If you want to look at thinkers like—there's a lot of thinkers on the right, and the issue with the right is that there's too little unity. | ||
| I spent—my life at this point is a lot of conservative politics, and I talk to people who are really on the Christian side of things, who are more Nietzscheans, who are libertarians. | ||
| You have foreign countries who have different nationalists. | ||
| You have people who are boomer cons, Reagan cons, people who are basically Nazis, people who, I don't know, worship Odin. | ||
| So you have like 20 factions on the right. | ||
| There's no unifying ideology, and they can only agree with what they dislike under the left. | ||
| Nature abhors a vacuum. | ||
| And so if you have a vacuum in both the right and the left, it means it's going to be filled. | ||
| And there are two ecosystems I find, because I've lived a strange life and I've looked into a lot of different industries, and most industries in America are high school, where it's done based off buddies, based off who you went to school with, who seems cool. | ||
| And that's why nothing works. | ||
| Nothing works because all of our leadership is done like high school. | ||
| The two non-high school industries I see are parts of tech and parts of the right. | ||
| And so those are the two factions I would look at to think, this is where the next wave of creativity is going to come from. | ||
| I agree. | ||
| I've been having some conversations with some other business leaders, and I'll keep it semi-private, but there's a management crisis. | ||
| I've been experiencing this, and having spoken with some other managers at other companies from small to medium, they keep saying the same thing. | ||
| We hear about Gen Z and millennials quiet quitting. | ||
| They don't want to work. | ||
| And so people are coasting. | ||
| They're doing the bare minimum. And it's resulting in social disorder and collapse. | ||
| To bring it to the point of the right, I do think there's one thing that all the right factions tend to agree on. | ||
| It's meritocracy in some form or another. | ||
| But a meritocracy is not a unifying ideology with a leadership. | ||
| So you might agree the best person for the job should have it. | ||
| And then what happens? Every single person on the right says, hey, don't look at me. | ||
| I don't want to be in charge. Yeah. | ||
| No joke. There is this issue with the Republican Party where we wonder why it is they won't do anything. | ||
| Yeah. It's fascinating how many of us are doing anything. | ||
| I mean, granted, I host a show, but people say, Tim, will you run for office? | ||
| And I'm like, no way, I won't do it. | ||
| Yes. We are power averse. | ||
| The Republican Party is power averse. | ||
| And the Democrats are power craven with no direction. | ||
| This is a recipe for an implosion. | ||
| Yes. The right tends to be, just like you said, the right doesn't want to be in positions of political power because they look to do things in the real world that do benefit themselves, but also it's something that they find interesting or they find themselves good at or whatever, whereas people on the left, they can organize and they're looking for a way to access power so they can... | ||
| Essentially, I feel like it should make the world align with the way that they emotionally feel that it should be. | ||
| One of the facts that I never see people discuss on this topic, but I think it's fundamentally... | ||
| This might be one of the most important facts I wish I could shove into the discourse, is that the left has controlled institutions at least since World War I or World War II. And so conservatives will often be like, oh... | ||
| I think we're good to go. | ||
| Whenever news about Stalin or Mao got out, it was suppressed because our elites were sympathetic. | ||
| The New York Times and the Hollywood Times. Exactly. | ||
| But that was way before World War II. Yeah, I said World War I. Oh, sorry. | ||
| World War I slash World War II. It's a gradual process. | ||
| And so the left has had power and... | ||
| The thing that they really hate about Trump is that he called their bluff because they were able to call a bluff—and this is what they mean by democracy. | ||
| Democracy is the series of managerial institutions which they use to enact their will through unelected officials. | ||
| And so— Trump called their bluff on democracy, and they hate him so much because Trump is forcing them to come to terms with that they were the elite because they had established this very advanced psychological manipulation of the population. | ||
| And this sounds schizo, but I can explain it. | ||
| It's all very easy to understand if you'd like. | ||
| That goes back decades, and the right has been so browbeaten by this where it's been generations of conservatives— I think the unfortunate reality is a degree of cowardice. | ||
| I know people will be offended by that, but let me say two things on this. | ||
| Someone asked me when I was in Newtown. | ||
| They said, I work in an industry, and it's very woke, and I don't know what to do. | ||
| Should I speak out? And I said, here's the hard reality. | ||
| If you're the first to speak out, you are in the trenches with a bunch of people and they're all terrified to look to see what's going on above. | ||
| And if you stick your head out because someone's got to do it, you're going to get hurt, right? | ||
| The problem is if nobody does, then you're all trapped forever. | ||
| The pioneers who came to North America... | ||
| Quarter of them died on the way here. | ||
| Then they landed on barren shores, knowing they had limited supplies in their ship, and they arrived in fall. | ||
| That's the craziest thing to me. | ||
| They were like, well, we have to. | ||
| That's when they were able to set sail. | ||
| They land on a barren shore, and they're like, okay, now most of us are going to starve to death. | ||
| What a thought. To be in Europe and say, you know what? | ||
| It's time to take a risk. We're probably gonna die. | ||
| Let's do it anyway. And now there are people who are like, I could lose my job. | ||
| And so I know it's tough because a lot of people are thinking, I can't risk losing my job. | ||
| And if everyone thinks that, you are all lemmings trapped in a box until someone steps up. | ||
| And I know a lot of people... | ||
| They like to throw shade my way and say, easy for you to say, Tim, you're on this big show, you've got a company. | ||
| I worked for Vice and Disney, and I spoke up, and I lost those connections, and I lost those contracts, and I started from scratch to start over. | ||
| I stuck my head out and had to start rebuilding and got to this point. | ||
| I don't think it's going to be the same for everybody. | ||
| Some people might have it harder, but so long as everybody on the right just simply says, I'm going to stay hidden and not say anything, then the left will continue to dominate everything. | ||
| The left dominated the 20th century because pre-internet, every single thing was a bureaucracy. | ||
| The media was a bureaucracy, the government, the military, corporate America, religion. | ||
| And the left is the religion of the bureaucracy because in the leftist worldview, the bureaucracy is God, which can do anything. | ||
| And so we only realized how much power the left had once the internet showed up. | ||
| Because the internet gave us a degree of separation. | ||
| And the reason the right is starting to build up its own culture is that we've moved away from the—because in 1985, probably 100 people controlled almost all of the information flow in the West. | ||
| Academia, the media, a variety of things. | ||
| We shattered that glass. | ||
| And as of now, we could use AI and the internet to completely automate out the managerial class. | ||
| And Balaji, I think, did a great—Balaji's done a great job thinking about this, of going through—he says the 19th century, God was the social fabric of society. | ||
| 20th century, it was the state. | ||
| 21st century, it's the network. | ||
| And I think— The network is, and the network is to our era what the bureaucracy was to the 20th century, and so you're seeing the new right emerge as this phenomena online due to that. | ||
| Let's jump to this story. We have this from Just Security, the war game, documentary, and simulating a worse January 6th. | ||
| Just say it! Just Security, civil war. | ||
| That's what they're entertaining. | ||
| The scenario is simply terrifying and sadly all too plausible, if not highly likely. | ||
| It's January 6, 2025, a date now less than three months away. A major party presidential candidate has responded to his opponent's victory with false allegations of widespread election fraud. The losing candidate's supporters, joined by militias and some members of the National Guard and active-duty U.S. military, are moved to violence by disinformation. An American general rises against the commander-in-chief and rallies other troops to join. The attackers breach the U.S. | ||
| capital and interrupt the counting electoral votes. | ||
| They seize the Arizona state Capitol and take half its state senators hostage, amass threatening crowds in other state capitals, and take over a major military base. | ||
| A high-level simulation of White House management of the scenario is what producer Jesse Moss and co-director Tony Gerber chronicle in their documentary film War Game, now streaming and in theaters. | ||
| Overall, War Game is impressive, but the film also has confusing elements and leaves key questions unanswered. | ||
| They're certainly entertaining this. | ||
| This is clearly written from the perspective of the managerial, bureaucratic, uniparty state, whatever you want to call it. | ||
| But I'm curious, Rudyard, if you see anything plausible in this assessment of what's going to happen on January 6, 2025. | ||
| Every single thing the left says is projection, and that's a principle where I can explain why I came to it. | ||
| It's something James Lindsay says as well. | ||
| So you're saying it's—I don't want to say you're saying, but is the implication that it is more likely that the left— I think my personal guess is I don't think we will get out of this election without blood because neither side can afford to have the other side to lose. | ||
| And so I think both sides will dispute the election no matter what. | ||
| And I think if the right wins, the left will dispute it. | ||
| And what they're trying to say here is partly signaling to their own followers. | ||
| And it's also to just larp the idea in their head. | ||
| Yeah. I think they would not be opposed to that sort of thing if Trump won. | ||
| Well, I'll give you an example. It was, oh man, what was the name of that Alaskan senator? | ||
| He died and then they made a foundation after him. | ||
| Do you remember what I'm talking about? Nick Begovich? | ||
| No, was it Alaskan Center? | ||
| Maybe it wasn't. It was a congressman, too. | ||
| There was a politician, some young guy started running his account, and then they turned it into some foundation or whatever. | ||
| I can't remember the name of it. Recently? | ||
| No, no, no, no. | ||
| I'll look it up in a second. | ||
| The chat knows for sure. | ||
| But they tweeted after January 6th that January 6th was justified, but the wrong side did it. | ||
| And these were progressives. | ||
| Yeah. Progressive Democrats. | ||
| There were multiple people, multiple organizations or whatever. | ||
| I think it was the Grable Institute said that. | ||
| Yeah, I was going to bring that up. Yeah, they said that they endorsed the action if it wasn't for the right doing. | ||
| Yeah, that was that, right? Yeah, the Gravel. Gravel. | ||
| Gravel. Mike Gravel was a senator. | ||
| He let some young guys take over his account. | ||
| They were super lefty. | ||
| And then they ended up posting after January 6th that they believe it was the right tactic, but the wrong people. | ||
| Yes. You guys should source check me on this, but there was a leftist think tank which basically made war room projections of the left launching a coup with the right one. | ||
| Yeah. And it's, I mean, what I say is that God's given us enough warning shots at this point. | ||
| If this crisis hits and you're not prepared for it, you've been warned. | ||
| So you were saying, I don't know if you said this on the show before the show, that whenever a great dynasty is about to fall, there's a storm. | ||
| Yeah. Explain that. | ||
| So these cycles of history I pull from... | ||
| They've existed for as long as we have records and Chinese authors have been writing about them for thousands of years. | ||
| Herodotus, Livy, Machiavelli. | ||
| The Bible alludes to them. | ||
| The things I'm talking about, these are things we've always known about. | ||
| And in Chinese political philosophy going back to 1000 BC, they talk about the mandate of heaven and they say that – When a dynasty falls, the earth shows its displeasure where there's famine, there's increase in prices, there's peasant rebellions, there's foreign wars, and then there's great storms as nature throws horrifying cataclysms like tornadoes or hurricanes and floods and droughts at the earth to show its displeasure. | ||
| And these things are correlations where... | ||
| If your society is falling apart, you're going to have all those sorts of things because all these things are correlated together, whether external crises or local political crises or famines or that stuff. | ||
| So these hurricanes that just slammed into the southeast, you're saying God is angry with the current dynasty of the United States and it's about to fall? | ||
| I did not say that. But is there any kind of like... | ||
| I don't know, supernatural explanation in these philosophical beliefs of a storm? | ||
| So, a major difference between how the ancients saw the world and the recent world that no one looks at is what Charles Taylor called the buffered personality. | ||
| And so people in the ancient world thought that our minds are basically living ecosystems. | ||
| And so their purpose for religion was to fill your mind with good bacteria to fight against negative stuff. | ||
| And so in the Middle Ages, they called the church basically knights against demonic warfare. | ||
| So they saw the church as basically a military force to fight Europe off from demonic possession. | ||
| And so I'm going through all of that to explain that back then, their concept of the world was that things were sympathetically, mystically connected. | ||
| And so... And they would say that the Earth is connected to the sky, which is connected to the weather, which is connected to astrological signs, and their idea would be that the collapse of our government would be part of this broader – like – This broader cosmic shift. | ||
| And so we would be downstream of the sorts of things that would cause these shifts in weather rather than vice versa. | ||
| It's kind of like, and I don't know if that's true, it wouldn't surprise me to a certain degree because the science over the last couple decades... | ||
| has consistently found the world's vastly more interconnected than we believe. | ||
| It's weird stuff like you can correlate— there's too many bizarre correlations we've found in science with like a certain kind of genetics, is with a certain kind of environment, or string theory with particles jumping across the world. | ||
| We know the world's connected in a myriad of ridiculous ways, and that there's these— I mean, in the years 1348, in the years 1645, every major country in the world was fighting both a civil war and an external war at the same time. | ||
| And so the world often, or Socrates, Lao Tzu, Buddha, and Confucius all lived at the exact same time. | ||
| So there are these weird hollow similarities you find over history. | ||
| An interesting book called by Victor Lieberman is how you can correlate political development in Southeast Asia in West Europe at the exact same time. | ||
| So there's a whole sub-industry of finding this stuff. | ||
| And so the argument that if you dropped a philosopher from a thousand years ago, he would say that – The reason you would have big storms, the collapse of a dynasty, this is part of God's plan, is like, there's these cosmic changes in the universe that you are part of this bigger correlation. | ||
| I think so, to a certain degree, but... | ||
| So I wanted to ask you, with all the stuff that you've studied, you've made a couple videos about... | ||
| Listless Men was a big one. | ||
| Yeah, yeah. I think you got in trouble for that one a little bit. | ||
| But based on what you've studied, you said... | ||
| You don't think we get to this election without blood. | ||
| But that could be a what? A street fight, maybe? | ||
| What do you think is the highest probability? | ||
| Maybe it's only 7% because there's 50 different potentialities. | ||
| But what do you think has the highest likelihood of happening following the election? | ||
| I have a bet going with my good friend Andrew Heaton. | ||
| $1,000 for 1,000 deaths by next April. | ||
| Really? Yeah, we have a bet going with each other. | ||
| You believe there will be 1,000 deaths by April? | ||
| Yes. That seems hard to believe. | ||
| Outside the normal death rate, right? | ||
| When it rains, it pours. | ||
| You're saying politically motivated deaths? | ||
| Oh yeah, I think people will be killing each other in the streets. | ||
| And is that just domestic? | ||
| Because, I mean, obviously there were huge assassinations, numbers of assassinations in Mexico. | ||
| Are we counting international political deaths? | ||
| So, let me tell you what I'm thinking here. | ||
| And keep in mind, I've been reading up on the French Revolution lately, where the last two books I've read were on the French Revolution. | ||
| And people never think these historic crises are going to hit until they do. | ||
| And it's one of those things, when it rains, it pours. | ||
| And you have really good sound insulation. | ||
| And... So World War I, everyone—one of the things I like to say is the world is inherently incredibly unreasonable, and expecting to be reasonable is in fact unreasonable. | ||
| And you look over history, political tensions build up, build up, build up, war, and then a bunch of people die. | ||
| And it's often not a little dribble. | ||
| It's often a big shower, especially—the more advanced your society is, the more likely it is to be a war and not political dribble. | ||
| I think— I don't know the sheer scale of it. | ||
| I think it'll be pretty bad. | ||
| And the four conflicts I've compared it to in the past are the French Revolution, the English Civil War, the American Civil War, and the fall of the Roman Republic. | ||
| So that's the sort of event I'm talking on the scale. | ||
| And I've drawn four connections between those, so I look for proxies between them. | ||
| I had a conversation with Eric Prince and I asked him, with all of his experience in these foreign countries that have been in conflict, crisis or collapse, does he see a parallel here in the United States, something that we should be worried about? | ||
| And his response was, well, I can tell you one thing. | ||
| Every guy that he knows who's been in a country that has suffered some kind of collapse— It happens overnight. | ||
| Yeah. One day the lights are on, you're watching TV, you go to bed, you wake up, there's no electricity, there's no internet, communications are severed, no one has any idea what's going on, and then conflict. | ||
| Yeah. Seemingly instantly. | ||
| And I think people need to understand that... | ||
| There is a fine line between order and chaos. | ||
| If you woke up one day and your TV couldn't turn on, and your phone didn't work, and you had no idea what was happening, without your phone, without the network, you can't use credit cards. | ||
| You go to a cafe when the internet's down, sorry, we can't take your credit cards, do you have cash? | ||
| So you go to the grocery store and you're like, I need to get some food, and they're like, sorry, do you have cash? | ||
| It's like, I need to go to an ATM. Sorry, ATM's down. | ||
| Network's not working. The chaos that will erupt in a matter of days But it would probably happen instantly because opportunists would take advantage. | ||
| Yes. Leading a formation of neighborhood watches from local men getting together and be like, we've got to figure out what's going on because we have no idea. | ||
| Now here's the crazy part. | ||
| Let me ask you this one, Rudyard. | ||
| Internet shuts down. Communications are off. | ||
| People walk out of their suburban sprawl homes and they're looking around and they're like, they see their neighbor Bill and say, hey Bill, is your internet down? | ||
| We have no idea what's going on. | ||
| TV's not working. I can't get a signal. | ||
| Do you have any idea what's happening? No idea. | ||
| Then you hear a boom off in the distance. | ||
| And they're like, what is going on? | ||
| Clueless! An APC pulls up. | ||
| Some guys in seeming military uniforms jump out and they say, don't worry, you know, my name is, you know, Lieutenant such and such. | ||
| We're here to make sure everybody's all right. | ||
| We got an outage. We're going to be making sure everyone's cool and everyone's happy. | ||
| You don't know who these people are. | ||
| Do you just trust them? Do you agree? | ||
| Do you obey? What do you do? | ||
| Without communication, how do you know what's going on? | ||
| You can't verify. Let me tell you a story. | ||
| When COVID started, I got out on the last call for the last flight out of Peru. | ||
| I got out of Peru because I had a friend in China and I called him up and he said, COVID's really nasty. | ||
| You should get out of there as soon as possible. | ||
| I booked a flight the next day. | ||
| Little did I know the Peruvian government shut down its board, its border, right after that without telling anyone in advance. | ||
| Wow. And then I got back to Pennsylvania, where I'm from, and then we were already in lockdown. | ||
| So we went from normal society to lockdown in like a week, several days. | ||
| We all lived through that. | ||
| And so that's the sort of thing that can happen. | ||
| And most people submit to authority if there's nothing else planned. | ||
| Now, here's an add-on to that. | ||
| The APC pulls up and there's some military-looking guys, walks over, shakes a guy's hand and says, hey, my name's Lieutenant such-and-such, and communications are down. | ||
| We don't know what's going on. There's some conflict happening up the road, but we're here to secure everything. | ||
| We're National Guard. All of a sudden, down the street, another APC pulls up. | ||
| These guys jump out, train their weapons on the other group of guys in the APC, shooting starts. | ||
| What I've consistently found with all of these historic conflicts, and it's funny to see how often history repeats, and that's one of the themes of my show, but it goes to a deeper degree than anyone thinks, where... | ||
| For the English Civil War as an example, there was a commonly known thing that it – the average Englishman was too weak to fight since it had been over a century since England had had a major war. | ||
| French Revolution, American Revolution, Russian Civil War, most people are completely inactive and then small groups of radicals normally – Between something like 1% to 3% of the population dominate the discourse. | ||
| With the French Revolution, the Jacobins, who became the ruling military caste of France, they were a social club originally. | ||
| They were a social club to push for social justice. | ||
| They would fund women's charities and stuff. | ||
| The Bolsheviks were also... | ||
| All communists were less than 3% of Russia's population. | ||
| The Bolsheviks were an even tinier amount than that. | ||
| Would you be interested in hearing... | ||
| How I think a conflict like this would start because I have multiple – let me ask you. | ||
| You're saying how do you think a civil war or a breakdown of the United States would begin? | ||
| You have a theory after that? Yes, yes. I have multiple – real quick, sorry. | ||
| So I just want to make sure I'm clear here. | ||
| Following the election, you have already said you think there will be 1,000 deaths, politically motivated deaths by April. | ||
| Is that correct? And either this will be the effect of or the beginning of what may be a collapse or breakdown? | ||
| I think it'll be a war. | ||
| I think you'll still probably get your groceries. | ||
| You'll still be able to watch Netflix. | ||
| Keep in mind, in Syria or Ukraine, the horrible thing is you'll still have to go to your job. | ||
| You'll still have to pay your bills. | ||
| You'll still watch Netflix with the kids. | ||
| It's just Chicago's being shelled. | ||
| And I do want you to begin with your scenario, but I want to stress this too. | ||
| It's a point that I like to make. | ||
| When I was in Egypt in 2013, across the street from the Hilton was McDonald's. | ||
| Yeah. There's a guy sitting down eating a cheeseburger and watching soccer. | ||
| And three blocks away was the revolution. | ||
| APCs were surrounding. | ||
| Blackhawks were flying overhead. | ||
| We got in a car and drove to Heliopolis and went to the mall where everybody was going about their days if nothing was happening. | ||
| So with that in mind, people seem to think that a war starting means literally you're in your home and bolts are flying. | ||
| But explain to me what you think is going to happen in the next couple of months. | ||
| So... I've studied dozens of different historic crises, and the reason I think we're going to have a war is partly intuitive. | ||
| You just look outside. But it's also I've studied almost every single model of the science of history, where people have been trying to develop models to predict history, and about five different historic models, most of them dating to the 20th century, say that in the 2020s, America would have a civil war. | ||
| And I was looking... | ||
| This is like Strauss House generational theory. | ||
| So Strauss House, David Hackett Fisher, Peter Turchin. | ||
| There's a handful of others. | ||
| There's Goldstein, who's a really terrible author. | ||
| The ones I pull on the most are Peter Turchin and David Hackett Fisher. | ||
| They really get into the data, computer science level. | ||
| And there's a handful of... | ||
| There's like four variables. | ||
| There's three variables that Peter Turchin looked at, where if you look at these variables... | ||
| And he's used this for over... | ||
| historic crises happening. Those are average wages, income inequality, and competition for elite jobs. Those three variables were able to predict the fall of the Roman Republic, the English Civil War, the Black Death, the French Wars of Religion, the French Revolution, the Russian Revolution, and so many more. | ||
| And these crises happen every 250 years like clockwork. The last real version in the Western world was the French Revolution. Before then, the Wars of Religion in the mid-1600s that killed a third of Europe's population. Before then, the Black Death in the 1300s which killed half of Europe's population. | ||
| So these are patterns that we have computer models to study. | ||
| They're very consistent. | ||
| And so I'm looking to all these historic examples to inform my analysis of what I'm about to say. | ||
| So how does it begin? | ||
| So I have a tier list of multiple variables. | ||
| My top one was a financial crisis, and that was going back years. | ||
| I figured out a lot of this stuff in 2020. | ||
| And financial crisis was my top bet because you look at the English Civil War, the French Revolution, and the... | ||
| France's previous crises in the 13 and the 1600s, et cetera. | ||
| And it's normally caused by a budget issue because leading up to these crises, one of the great books in this topic, The Great Wave by David Hackett Fisher, he found these crises because he was studying the history of inflation and he found you could correlate the history of inflation with these crises because inflation is a parallel for the government instability. | ||
| So the government's inflating its currency when it's feeling desperate. | ||
| So long periods of inflation which crest and the top predictors for these crises from the inflation analysis are increase in real estate prices, real estate and food prices, oil prices. | ||
| And this was stuff I saw in 2020 and I was thinking in 2020, oh, it's great that our real estate's not that bad. | ||
| It's great that our food prices aren't that bad. | ||
| And then... Now food and I gotta tell you real estate is insane right now. I know. | ||
| There was a house nearby that was like $250 and now it's $500 and it's been two years. | ||
| And this isn't a super like, this isn't like Miami or Los Angeles. | ||
| We're in West Virginia. Yeah, exactly. | ||
| So do you believe that we will see a financial crisis then in the next few months? Maybe not the next few months. It wouldn't surprise me next few months, I think. | ||
| Because... So I want to try and get to this. You're saying that within the next three months or by till April, sorry, it's not three months, five or six. | ||
| Political crisis. That's what I'm betting on. Let me tell you what I'm thinking. So for these crises, the number one thing is the budget issue. I don't think we're going to face the budget issue. It's still my number two probability. So historically, the budget issue is the top one because for all of these crises, the thing that instigated it was the budget crisis where neither side was willing to let the other side have a concession. | ||
| I'm going to use the English Civil War and the French Revolution as an example. | ||
| In the English Civil War, England was divided between the supporters of the king and the parliament. | ||
| In all of these underlie certain class and ethnic and regional interests. | ||
| For us, I say the right versus left is college-educated versus non-college-educated. | ||
| And so English Civil War, it was the nobility and the merchants. And so what happened was that they had a huge budget. They couldn't pay their bills at all. | ||
| And then the royalists tried to get the parliamentarians to give a concession for a foreign war and then the parliamentarians said no. | ||
| The king tried to shut down the parliament. French Revolution is almost the exact same thing. | ||
| The king tried to get the parliament to give a budget consensus. The parliament said no, start of the war. So that was my top predictor where something – an example of that for us would be – The – a great example. | ||
| So for my whole stack of probabilities, my top probability now is election dispute. | ||
| Then it's budget issue. | ||
| Then it's foreign war. | ||
| Trump assassination. I'd move Trump assassination to number three now, and then black swan or randomized event. | ||
| A black swan would be, let's say, there's a major riot in Los Angeles that the police don't respond to, and then that becomes a political issue, like what you saw in the UK. So we're looking at a political crisis. | ||
| Political crisis. The French Revolution is a great example of this because I've been reading up on the topic. | ||
| The Tocqueville's book on it is amazing. | ||
| You guys should read it. But the thing I didn't know at the French Revolution until really recently is that it's a multi-year process. | ||
| So what happened is that you had a political dispute between... | ||
| the parliament and the king. The king shut down the parliament. The parliament says, no, we're not going to do that. | ||
| Then there's this quiet coup. And the crazy thing with the French Revolution is there's no real violent point that happens. | ||
| What just happens is the army mutinies. The army says, no, king, you're going to listen to the parliament. | ||
| And then the peasants start burning down the Lord's land. | ||
| But it was this gradual, let's say, three-year process where the monarch lost power. France then became a parliamentary democracy where only the rich could vote, slightly in the right and the left. | ||
| The left killed the right. | ||
| They gave the poor the vote. | ||
| France then became a military dictatorship. | ||
| No, it became three people. | ||
| Then it became the Jacobins, who are the radical leftists, who are a social club, took over. | ||
| But real quick, it was a series of revolutions, wasn't it? | ||
| Oh, yes. And so that's what I think it would be where my best scenario is that both sides— I think? | ||
| most political pundits, most, a lot of big political pundits have openly pushed for violence at this point and... So even on the right? I think, so like the Nick Fuentes types, there are definitely people who would not be against it. | ||
| So, I would put it this way. | ||
| On the left, we have seen extremist rhetoric bubbling up to the highest levels. | ||
| We have seen the excusing of extreme violence, such as at the Chaz Chop, there were a couple teenagers that were shot. | ||
| There was another guy who was shot and killed. | ||
| In Provo, Utah, BLM ran up to a car and just shot a guy for no reason. | ||
| Then when you look at what the quote-unquote right has... | ||
| There's no prominent right-winger advocating for violence or calling for the use of violence or force. | ||
| At most, Trump has—he came out and said the death penalty for illegal—I'm sorry, death penalty for migrants who kill Americans or cops. | ||
| We do have the lower-tier, more fringe elements of the right or anti-left who are absolutely calling for violence, but there's not the leadership faction calling for it. | ||
| Yeah. I understand you're not calling for violence, and I hate to be this blunt, but you did put your capital in Harpers Ferry for a reason. | ||
| It's like a revolutionary center. | ||
| This is where the American Civil War started. | ||
| Yeah, you're in Harpers Ferry for a reason. | ||
| We're in Harpers Ferry because it's the closest we can get to D.C. without being in a liberal state. | ||
| John Brown. It's John Brown. | ||
| I mean, that's obvious. | ||
| But do you know the history of Harpers Ferry? | ||
| Oh, yeah. It was impossible to defend. | ||
| It was a military base that John Brown attacked because he wanted to launch a slave revolt across the South. | ||
| Rose of the Armory. Yeah, yeah. | ||
| And during the Civil War, it was captured over and over again because it was impossible to defend. | ||
| Yeah. You could attack it, seize it, and then you couldn't defend it, so the south and the north went back and forth. | ||
| It is a terrible place to set up any kind of operation. | ||
| Yes, it's surrounded and all sides by hills that you can rain artillery down from. | ||
| Right. And the reason it exists was because—I can't remember the guy's name, but it was Harper. | ||
| He had a ferry because that's where the river splits, and so he would ferry people, and then they set up a trade and port in the area. | ||
| And then John Brown, who I think was a nutjob—he had been going to Kansas and just killing people with his sons—went to Harper's Ferry, seized the armory, attempting to start a slave revolt— And then when they stopped a train, he let the train leave. | ||
| The train immediately made contact to the next stop and said, Yo, this guy's taking over the town. | ||
| You need to send in the troops. | ||
| And this is, you know... | ||
| This was not the main point I was trying to convey. | ||
| I'm just saying, Harper's Ferry's a terrible place to be. | ||
| Oh, I'm not saying... I never said you're trying to launch a revolt. | ||
| I'm just saying this place has historic significance. | ||
| That I get. Yes. | ||
| I'm just saying, like, for somebody like myself who talks about the probability of civil war, this is the worst place to go. | ||
| Oh... I never—you're not trying to launch a coup. | ||
| There aren't enough guns here. I'm not saying you're suggesting that. | ||
| I'm saying that if we were actually considering— No, I'm not saying that either. | ||
| I'm saying that if we were actually concerned about conflict and wanted to avoid it— We would go... | ||
| Oh, I'm not saying that. No, I'm saying that this place has a very significant historical significance. | ||
| There are signs every 10 feet with the history of the Civil War. | ||
| You drive down the road and there's plaques everywhere telling you about these battles. | ||
| There's cannons along the road. | ||
| What I was trying to say is that picking this location, it shows the political discourse we're at. | ||
| It shows that we're a very... | ||
| We didn't pick this location for any political or historic reason. | ||
| We chose it because it's the eastern panhandle of West Virginia, which keeps us out of the liberal jurisdictions which ban guns, but allows us access to Baltimore and D.C. airports. | ||
| That's the only reason. | ||
| Because the first place we built was actually in western Maryland, and then our guns were banned, and we were like, okay, let's move over a little bit. | ||
| It sounds like Rutgers alluding more to serendipitous selection because... | ||
| And I'll throw one more at you. | ||
| We did a show on the culture war with these researchers who study weather patterns and geoengineering and things like this. | ||
| Very much these guys were against the idea that the militaries and governments were controlling weather or anything like that. | ||
| Such that we can cloud seed. | ||
| Operation Popeye was a real thing, but no one's creating and moving hurricanes. | ||
| It's insane. However, one gentleman did bring up a very interesting slide that shows there was a correlation between weather patterns over a long period of time and reserve currencies. | ||
| And that empires collapsed in correlation somehow for some reason along with global weather pattern. | ||
| Yeah, yeah. And so as you were mentioning the strange cosmology and the strange connections we can't map out, let me break it down this way. | ||
| I may say something like, we see a reserve currency collapse around the same time there's major storms, and you think that's spiritual hubbub supernatural nonsense. | ||
| It's a coincidence. However, there's a really great map that shows voting patterns as influenced by ancient coastlines. | ||
| Yeah. Have you seen this map? | ||
| In the south, in the United States, where the coastline used to go up to the southern states, into the center of those states, a long strip. | ||
| Those coasts created fertile soil. | ||
| farmed that specific area. When slavery ended, those areas became dominated by Democrat-leaning black communities who are now heavily Democrat, and they show you the correlation between ancient coastlines and how it affects modern voting today. Another really great story, which I'm sure you're aware of, is the distance of the train tracks and how it's based on the Roman chariots. | ||
| Yes. This stuff is everywhere. | ||
| The universe is infinitely connected and everything's connected to itself. | ||
| Back in the 1600s, they were able to look at sunspot activity and correlate it with temperature levels. | ||
| And the 1600s was a very cold society. | ||
| And so they knew, even in the 1600s, that their political issues were correlated with these variations in sunspots. | ||
| Yeah. | ||
| Yeah. We have the safe harbor deadline in December. | ||
| We have the electoral vote count January 6th. | ||
| Do you have any, like, guess as to what kicks off a political conflict in this time period? | ||
| Is it going to be January 6th where Democrats refuse to certify? | ||
| Is it going to be Trump wins, but then riots erupt across the country? | ||
| I operate in certain probabilistic ranges where if you're looking at something over a certain time frame, a group of people, you can make a genuine probabilistic bet. | ||
| So I have an 80% probability the right wins. | ||
| When you operate in frames like that— But you're saying 80% chance that Trump wins the election? | ||
| Oh, right. So I think he's going to win the election. | ||
| I also—that's not what I was saying. | ||
| I think if there's a civil war, 80% chance the right wins. | ||
| And so I'm comfortable saying that. | ||
| With a frame like a one-month period, you're operating on a scale of size that's too dependent on individual variables. | ||
| And I think neither side is going to accept the results of the election. | ||
| Right. The thing is they don't have to convince the other side. | ||
| They just have to give their own side enough plausible deniability. | ||
| And so I think we would end up with, let's say, an American people's government based out of Washington, D.C., and an American patriots government based out of Austin. | ||
| And so if you want to look at English Civil War, French Revolution, America— Yeah, English Civil War, French Revolution, American Civil War, English Civil War, French Revolution. | ||
| Each of them, both factions claimed to be the one true government, and the other faction were the enemies of the real government. | ||
| And so what would happen is that, let's say, electoral issue... | ||
| And I think there's going to be a lot of cheating this election because there's no incentive to not cheat. | ||
| Right. Because people have disputed the last two elections. | ||
| And Democrats have disputed every election they've lost going back, I think, 40 years. | ||
| But now it's come to 2016 was stolen by the Russians. | ||
| 2020 was stolen by Biden. | ||
| Yes. And so you have complete... | ||
| You have complete validity in saying that this election isn't fair, and so that gives you complete legal plausible deniability. | ||
| And so the right could say the left was falsifying the elections. | ||
| The left can say the right is a threat to democracy. | ||
| Both of them could have their supporters behind them. | ||
| Then they have independent governments, and then they basically conscript young men. | ||
| This isn't going to be the end of society. | ||
| It wouldn't be a nuclear holocaust. | ||
| It would be— Like one of those wars you see in a country you don't want to travel to. | ||
| Like if you look at Ethiopia where the Tigray and the Amhara are having a civil war and it just happened and they conscripted many of those ethnicities. | ||
| You look at… You look at a variety of countries around the world, and these sorts of civil wars are very normal. | ||
| And the sad thing is that an African saying that goes, when the elephants fight, the grass loses. | ||
| Because when these great political conflicts happen, I'm from one of the most politically contentious parts of the country. | ||
| I'm from outside Philadelphia. | ||
| My hometown is one of the most electorally important places. | ||
| And so I know that places like my hometown would get screwed over in a civil war. | ||
| And that's the downstream effects of this sort of thing. | ||
| Austin, you think, will be the people's... | ||
| American patriots' government. | ||
| Because... So... | ||
| Texas is the only state you could put a conservative capital in because it's in the middle of the map. | ||
| It has the industrial base. | ||
| But Austin is... | ||
| The pre-established government of Texas is in Austin. | ||
| So if you run a government, you need to have the human capital. | ||
| Austin's government human capital is pre-established in Austin. | ||
| Austin, they also... | ||
| It has no defensible borders. | ||
| It's surrounded by highways. | ||
| It has a big conservative intellectual group there. | ||
| The left could not defend Austin, and Texas has the biggest national guard in the country. | ||
| So they could just steamroll Austin overnight and establish it as a conservative base. | ||
| And then you have – you said the right would win in the end. | ||
| And I think that's true just because urban centers are where the liberals are and urban centers can be choked out by a couple blockades. | ||
| Yes. It's a variety of things. | ||
| The biggest variable I would look at here is the military is – the military tilts these conflicts and the military tilts right, and that's probably more pronounced over the last few years. | ||
| Young men tilt right. | ||
| Guns. Sorry, sorry. | ||
| The theory is the reason why the military has been going drag queen woke is because they're trying to purge out more conservative leaning members. | ||
| Yes. It's like the Spanish Civil War, where in the Spanish Civil War, the military tilted right, and then the elected leftist government trying to purge the military, the top brass of the military. | ||
| But if you want to look at the French Revolution and the Russian Revolution, what happened is that the top brass were political appointments while most of the military were sympathetic to the rebels. | ||
| And then when push came to shove, the men sided with their colonels and their sergeants, not with the generals and the admirals. | ||
| I wonder for those that are listening that served, if you believe either you or others would choose to go with their immediate chain of command, the people you know or the generals. | ||
| Because I got a feeling a lot of people are going to be like, when you're looking at leadership like Millie, and he's the one who's giving orders, and then you got your buddies, the people you know and trust and have led you well. | ||
| But I don't know. I haven't served, so I wouldn't know. | ||
| Yes. Having the military mutiny and go for the non-ruling class, you see it in a lot of these revolutions. | ||
| It's the determinant variable. | ||
| Besides that, young men tilt right as a demographic. | ||
| Besides that, gun owners tilt right. | ||
| The right has the manufacturing. | ||
| It has the electricity. | ||
| It has the food. | ||
| It has a geographically coherent territory. | ||
| And then the left is a bunch of city states. | ||
| And even on the east or the west coast, you could cut off Philly from D.C., from New York. | ||
| The left also is just so delusional, and they're so... | ||
| The left thinks hunting is immoral, let alone killing people. | ||
| I just read a story... The left doesn't know the difference between men and women. | ||
| Exactly. I watched this story on Lotus Eaters yesterday about the... | ||
| About... | ||
| There was this Danish ship off... | ||
| And the Danes, they were attacked by a one-legged pirate and then after beating the pirate, they sent him back in a boat with enough food to make it because they couldn't legally determine what nationality the pirate was. | ||
| This is insane. | ||
| In no other era of history are you attacked by a pirate and you treat it like a bird that got lost in your house. | ||
| How about this? Venezuelan gangs have taken over several apartment complexes in Aurora. | ||
| The media lied, said it wasn't happening. | ||
| Now they admit it's happening, but they say it's only a handful. | ||
| Yes. In what history, historical period, and I'm sure there is one, would a nation allow a foreign group of violent attackers to seize its territory in any capacity? | ||
| Yes. I have to imagine the references you'd bring up would be the fallen declination of a society. | ||
| Yeah, Aristotle said that a tyranny will bring in the outsiders in order to – the outsiders can be trusted by a tyrant because they have no loyalty to the society. | ||
| And so Aristotle said a tyrant will naturally bring in foreigners to oppress his own population because they won't have any investment. | ||
| Bye, isn't that prescient today? | ||
| I don't take credit for anything. | ||
| Alex Jones famously predicted the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. | ||
| And everybody was super impressing. | ||
| Wow, Alex Jones, he got this one. | ||
| This is a huge thing to get right. | ||
| I called Alex, and we were talking. | ||
| And one of the things that came up was, how did you know? | ||
| And he was like, well, I just read the news. | ||
| Like, they said Russia was amassing troops. | ||
| They said they were concerned about movements when the weather got warmer. | ||
| And I said... Sounds like Russia's gonna invade in the spring. | ||
| And then they did, and everybody acted like it was some profound revelation when it was literally just... | ||
| I read the news. | ||
| Yeah. Seems like we might be on path for a civil war. | ||
| I'm like, Tim, you're crazy. Why would you make that up? | ||
| And I'm like, guys. I predicted the invasion of Ukraine two years in advance, and then before it happened, I got it to the exact week it occurred. | ||
| Because I was going off the Peter Zeihan analysis of Russia's demographics, and I was reading the news, too. | ||
| I was looking at Olympic Games and weather patterns for when they could move troops in Ukraine. | ||
| It's just, people are in denial, and one of my friends likes to say denial is an evolutionary strategy to avoid dealing with things you can't deal with. | ||
| Yeah. Indeed. | ||
| And then it's, as they say, gradually, then suddenly. | ||
| And so, on November 5th, you know, let me also add, you mentioned the strange connections in cosmology and the universe, and how strange is it that we find ourselves in Harper's Ferry, that there is a street across from our old studio called Sandy Hook, and that on November 5th, The election is to take place. | ||
| Remember, remember the 5th of November, the gunpowder treason in plot. | ||
| Yeah. Our generation, 12 years ago, no, I'm sorry, this is like 14 years ago or 16 years ago. | ||
| Remember when Anonymous on 4chan gathered around, was marching down the streets of all these major cities wearing Guy Fawkes masks? | ||
| During Occupy Wall Street, people maintained the Guy Fawkes mask. | ||
| Guy Fawkes, this was largely from V for Vendetta. | ||
| A movie about an anarchist revolutionary who overthrows the tyrannical British government that seized power through a fake viral infection that they manufactured, controlling quarantine zones, making sure people can't go out at night, creating militaristic fingermen who could do whatever they wanted. | ||
| And people wore these masks and chanted, remember, remember the 5th of November. | ||
| And as it was, I can't remember, what's the actor's name who played V? Oh, Viggo Morgensen? | ||
| No, no, no, no. | ||
| That's Aragorn. That's Aragorn. | ||
| It was the guy who played Elrond. | ||
| Yeah, Elrond. I forget what his name is. | ||
| Hugo Weaving. Hugo Weaving. | ||
| And he says, if you see as I see and if you feel as I feel and if you would seek as I seek, then meet me one year from today on the steps of Parliament on November 5th. | ||
| Yes. And I remember thinking it's fascinating because so many young people were like, yeah! | ||
| And I was like, Guy Fawkes was a theocratic revolutionary. | ||
| He wanted to overthrow parliament to install a Christian theocracy. | ||
| Why are you young liberals cheering for this guy? | ||
| It's seemingly nonsensical. | ||
| They didn't know what they were cheering for, but millennials had it hard-coded in their mind November 5th, and now we stand at the precipice of chaos, and it is November 5th, the date the election is to take place. | ||
| Damn. Do you know what a synchronicity is? | ||
| Explain it to me. This is a concept from Carl Jung where – and it exists across societies. | ||
| There's a brilliant book called Forgotten Truth by Houston Smith who was possibly the best scholar of religion of the 20th century. | ||
| And Forgotten Truth, he goes to the philosophic points every major world religions share. | ||
| And it's not stuff you expect. | ||
| It's weird stuff. But synchronicity is one of them. | ||
| It's, for example, let's say you break up with your old girlfriend on the day you meet your new one, or that you have a birthday on the same day as your best friend. | ||
| It's weird details like that. | ||
| And you run in—if you hang out in religious and spirituals or whatever circles, you run into this— This type of person who writes down all the synchronicities in their life. | ||
| Well, I can explain to you rather simply. | ||
| You see, in the code of the universe, there's only so many limited variables that were hard programmed by the creator. | ||
| And so the procedural generation has to repeat terms and dates because there's... | ||
| Or it's sympathetic connections. | ||
| Like in string theory, there are connections across the universe. | ||
| And this is something physics believes in today. | ||
| And in pre-industrial philosophy, it was called the law of sympathy. | ||
| It's how if you stab a voodoo doll, the person suffers. | ||
| Although I don't think if you actually do stab a voodoo doll, the other person's going to die. | ||
| And one of the things Peter Turchin, who's one of the biggest scholars in this topic, and he's more on the autist than the schizo axis. | ||
| So if he says this, it's something that has a lot of validity, is that you see these patterns that happen again in the same society when they have these crises. | ||
| So for France as an example, three times in a row they had their civil war due to the king having a budget issue, calling the parliament, the parliament saying no, and twice they resolved the legal dispute in a tennis court. | ||
| And Philippe Fabry has done a lot of work with us where he's – He does what I do in France, where he finds, for example, European societies repeat certain cultural patterns in their history, while Middle Eastern societies repeat different patterns in their history. | ||
| And genetics codes a tremendous amount. | ||
| I don't know how much of it's genetic or how much of it's cultural, but we can use genetics to predict how fast you drive, what music you listen to, how religious you are, you name your cat. | ||
| So it wouldn't surprise me if stuff like this is coded into our genetics to a certain degree. | ||
| Phil has the heavy metal gene. | ||
| Apparently I do. Interesting. | ||
| We're gonna go to Super Chat, so if you haven't already, would you kindly smash that like button, give it a good ol' smash, subscribe, share the show with everyone you know, become a member by going to timcast.com and clicking join us, because I can assure you the members-only show is gonna get a little spicy, I'd imagine. | ||
| Not so family-friendly, but always fun. | ||
| This one's probably gonna be way more serious. | ||
| Because there's a lot more that I want to break down, but maybe not so... | ||
| Not when the kids are sitting there in the living room with you guys, because I know you're watching on the TV, and we'll keep this one for the members' show. | ||
| But we'll grab your Superchats now. | ||
| Quispy Joe says, Did you see Nintendo leaks? | ||
| Poor Typhlosion. I did not. | ||
| Did you guys... There was Nintendo leaks or something? | ||
| No. No idea! | ||
| That pop culture crisis talked about it. | ||
| Certainly. Centurion says, Trump is not on the voter pamphlet for Oregon. | ||
| Well then. Wait, really? | ||
| That's what someone's claiming. You know, we have to fact check it, fact check it. | ||
| Alright, what have we here, my friends? | ||
| Little Abello says, Tim, money for that masterclass on Uncensored, being the real, calm, and logical one, and defending us, your audience, too. | ||
| Kudos. I recommend you guys watch the Piers Morgan Uncensored I was on with a handful of people. | ||
| It was just, it was absolutely fascinating, and it's a cacophony of noise that will probably grind your ears, and you will not enjoy it. | ||
| But, um... You know, shout out to Piers Morgan, because I think he was trying to do a good job, but he invited some people on where you can't do that. | ||
| And the first thing that Piers opens up with is, you know, Trump is struggling with female voters, Kamala with male voters. | ||
| I'm going to send it to you, Tim, what do you think? | ||
| And I said, this is correct. | ||
| You know, obviously Kamala is trying to court male voters, Joe Rogan, blah, blah, blah. | ||
| And then I said, I think there are women that will hold their nose and vote for Donald Trump, but I think there are men that are sexist and just will not vote for a woman. | ||
| And I don't know how Kamala Harris overcomes that. | ||
| And then all of a sudden, you know, we get some rational thought, but this woman is just like Tim Pool and his misogynist audience of men and Tim Pool. | ||
| And I was like, why are you saying my name? | ||
| Like, I didn't say anything to you, like, lady, like, what are you yelling at me for? | ||
| And she called me a COVID denier, said Tim Pool was a COVID denier who then got COVID and took ivermectin or something. | ||
| And I was like, what? | ||
| I never denied COVID. I rejected ivermectin. | ||
| I told my doctor I didn't even want it. | ||
| This is absolutely nuts. | ||
| I told everyone to go to their doctors to get prescribed what was right for them. | ||
| And she had no answer. | ||
| Every single time you talked about it, you said, go to your doctor. | ||
| I said, don't take advice from me. | ||
| I'm some podcast. I don't know. I don't know, man. | ||
| I read the news. But the fascinating thing is the what is exemplified here is the left gets their news and information from clips that are out of context and they don't read the news. | ||
| So when she was saying things like your far right audience, I was like, what? | ||
| I was like, I just opened the show by saying inherent sexism is a barrier for Kamala Harris that is difficult for her to overcome. | ||
| Do you disagree with that? | ||
| She's like, well, you're far right male misogynist audience. | ||
| And I was like, the misogynist audience that agrees inherent sexism is a barrier for Kamala Harris? | ||
| Like, what are you talking about? Because they don't actually watch the show. | ||
| They don't know what you or I think. | ||
| Someone posts an out-of-context clip or a fake AI thing. | ||
| I will tell you this right now. | ||
| And I don't know if you've factored this into any of your equations, too. | ||
| But when I look at the front page of YouTube, the default... | ||
| I shouldn't call it the front page. Will you go to youtube.com? | ||
| I saw a couple segments, and I brought this up last week, where they said that I was making comments about Cenk Uygur, and they edited different things together to make a fake debate between me and Cenk under the guise that it was real. | ||
| And so it was me saying something that wasn't about Cenk, but they claimed, they said, look at what he said about Cenk. | ||
| And then I'm like, this guy's nuts. | ||
| I can't believe he would say it. | ||
| And I'm talking about some crazy burglar or something. | ||
| Then he showed a clip of Cenk saying something like, I can't do it with this guy. | ||
| You know, making people believe that there was a feud. | ||
| And when there are people online that said like 30,000 views who get their information from these sources, they are living in a paranoid, delusional state. | ||
| Now, the scary thing is people need to realize this is why I say I'm not worried about Antifa. | ||
| When I, when famously, and I love this, on the Antifa forums, they call me a liberal. | ||
| They say Tim Pool's a liberal because the far left know what liberals are and they don't like them. | ||
| They say, what is behind every liberal is a fascist or something like that? | ||
| Or, you know, what do they say? | ||
| Scratch a liberal and watch a fascist bleed? | ||
| Scratch a liberal and watch a fascist bleed. | ||
| Something like that. | ||
| Like that Sam Seder opened a segment claiming I supported the death penalty, which is absolutely false. | ||
| Why? I assume he saw a 15 second clip on social media where the actual context was the law prescribes a death penalty for treason and not that I agree with it. | ||
| He then repeats it to his audience, to millions of people, and they live in this crackpot reality, which I think is spiraling out of control. | ||
| Anyway, long story short. | ||
| You can watch the Piers Morgan thing. | ||
| I think it was pretty wild. And I'm going back on his show at some point. | ||
| I think next week. Because I'm just sitting there being like, can we just talk about why Walgreens shut down 1,200 locations? | ||
| 7-Eleven shut down 400. | ||
| Big Lots is closing down. | ||
| Why groceries are becoming unaffordable. | ||
| And everybody here is just screaming that Trump is racist or Kamala is speaking in word salad. | ||
| We cannot because you're a Trumper and you're a misogynist. | ||
| There you go. But I do think that the general result, if you look at the comments, was this lady lost her mind. | ||
| And so be it. I want these people to expose themselves for being the irrational people who will lead others to destruction. | ||
| And so I can sit here and say, we need a working economy for the American people. | ||
| Let's talk about how to get it. And if they want to scream Tim Pool's far right, let them do it. | ||
| All right, let's go. Let's go. | ||
| We'll grab some super chat so I don't keep rambling on this. | ||
| All right. Jeffrey Jackson says if Kamala actually goes on Rogan, she's intentionally undermining her campaign. | ||
| She's looking to flop like a soccer player who got the ball stolen. | ||
| I'm saying maybe she wants to lose. | ||
| I don't know. I think Rogan's a bad fit for her. | ||
| I don't think she could handle it. | ||
| And I think that's the problem right now. | ||
| They're trying to drop her into situations that other politicians can't handle. | ||
| But I think that speaks to the fact that her advisors don't know her that well. | ||
| They aren't setting her up for success because she can't rise to the occasion of the media opportunities they're presenting to her. | ||
| The irony is that Rogan is not a high-intensity interviewer. | ||
| I can't imagine if I was in a room with Rogan, I'd feel intimidated or I'd feel like he's really trying to grind down whoever he's interviewing. | ||
| It's just you can't deal with a rational assessment of what your platform is. | ||
| All right, Simon Ravenscroft says Rogan should say they have to be on the same show. | ||
| Who said it before the show that he should give them both the same date but not tell them? | ||
| And then they both show up at the same time? | ||
|
unidentified
|
Andrew said that? Alright. | |
| Peter Goock says, Tim, have you seen the news story about Tim Waltz? | ||
| Jesse on fire has a crazy video on it. | ||
| Not good if true. Horrible. | ||
| Just like Harris will do on Rogan. | ||
| No idea. What's the story? | ||
| Did he throw a football and hit someone in the face or something? | ||
| No idea. Waffles says, well, the IRS is falsely claiming I owe them $5,000 and stole my tax return. | ||
| Special thanks to Kamala for casting the tie-breaking vote. | ||
| I told you guys, I know Waffles heeded that warning because you've been paying attention, but this is what I'm talking about. | ||
| This is how they do it. | ||
| They're not going to go after billionaires. | ||
| Billionaires can fight back. They're going to go to people who can't afford it and they're going to say, oh yeah, no refund for you. | ||
| You're going to get a bill in the mail and it's going to say, you owe us $326. | ||
| Do you want to fight it? And a lot of people are going to be like, I don't have time. | ||
| I give up. And then people are going to have the money ripped from 87,000 new agents. | ||
| This is going to be wild, man. | ||
| Placid Saint says, Tim, I saw you in Pierce today. | ||
| You had the patience of a monk with that woman. | ||
| She is the reason why no one votes for women and why men and women are leaving the Democratic Party. | ||
| That lady has lost her marbles. | ||
| Unfortunately, it is an example of a bad woman in a position of influence. | ||
| To what degree, I don't know because I don't know who she is. | ||
| And I think she took offense to that because she kept saying my name. | ||
| And I was like, why do you keep bringing me up? | ||
| I never said anything to you. And she's like, my name is such and I don't even remember her name. | ||
| She's like, my name is and I have a job and you know who I am. | ||
| And I was like, I have no idea who you are, lady. | ||
| She did not like that. But you are correct. | ||
| My point was men don't want to vote for women. | ||
| She then goes off like a banshee about misogyny, insulting me and attacking me whenever I said anything to her. | ||
| And I'm like, lady, please. Guys are watching this right now and they're going, Tim's right. | ||
| I will never vote for a woman. And it's because of her. | ||
| But maybe that's her point. | ||
| You know, maybe she's the hero that we need in that before she went on Pierce, she was like, I am going to be as insufferable a female Democrat I can be so that every male viewer will vote Trump. | ||
| And she's a secret Trump supporter, you know, but she's taken that she's taken that dive to do the right thing. | ||
| You know, that's right. | ||
| Like in Batman when, you know, Batman pretended to be the one who killed Harvey Dent. | ||
| You know what I'm saying? That's right. | ||
| Alright, let's grab a couple more. What have we here? | ||
| ZZamp says, If you want to inspire male voters, please someone recreate Trump as Goku going Super Saiyan 1 for the first time against Kamala, Frieza. | ||
| The cackle is almost indistinguishable. | ||
| That's actually a really good idea for millennial guys. | ||
| Are you familiar with when Goku went Super Saiyan for the first time? | ||
| Yeah, you're too young. What about you, Phil? | ||
| No. You're too old. Yep. | ||
| But Serge knows... | ||
| Serge knows. I was a little kid. | ||
| I was like 9 or 11 watching that. | ||
| For those that don't know it's an anime, you know what Dragon Ball Z is. | ||
| Come on. Goku is fighting Frieza. | ||
| Frieza, in the middle of the fight, murders Goku's best friend, and then Goku goes blind with rage. | ||
| And you know what's really fascinating about Dragon Ball Z is that Goku, he's got black hair and brown eyes, but when he gains superpowers, his hair turns blonde and his eyes turn blue. | ||
| Just, you know, whatever. | ||
| I don't know why Japan decided that was the thing that shows you were very powerful, but okay. | ||
| And Goku then beats the ever-living crap out of Frieza, and Frieza gets sliced in half, and, you know, that's the story. | ||
| Anyway, remember when that politician—I can't remember who it was—did—what did he do? | ||
| Attack on Titan? But he had the Titans as, like, Democrats. | ||
| And so it was a Republican face slicing the necks of these gigantic, monstrous Democrats. | ||
| And they were like, this is a call for violence. | ||
| It's not okay. And you can't do this. | ||
| And then, you know, he took it down or something. | ||
| I can't remember what happened. But the best meme ever was Attack on Hill. | ||
| And it's Attack on Titan, but it's Hank Hill flying through the air fighting gigantic Titan Bill Dautreve. | ||
| Jacob Alley says, Great men do not seek power. | ||
| They have power thrust upon them. | ||
| Lieutenant Commander Worf, Season 7, Episode 22. | ||
| Based. Hey, the Boomers gave us The Next Generation. | ||
|
unidentified
|
There you go. They did. Man, what an epic show. | |
| Alright, Mauricio91 says, why throw us under the bus on peers? | ||
| You don't know any good reason why black men would vote for Trump. | ||
| Misogyny? Are you kidding me? | ||
| We have the same reasons you do, Tim. | ||
| Get F'd. When did I say that? I didn't say that. | ||
| You must have been listening to somebody else. | ||
| I said, a lot of young black men are telling people they're going to vote for Trump, but does that mean they're actually going to turn out to vote for him? | ||
| Young people don't turn out to vote, so why would this be any different? | ||
| We've heard this in 2016 and 2020 and now today. | ||
| Trump's winning the black vote. | ||
| I remember this. And then it didn't happen. | ||
| They're certainly shying away from Democrats, but Trump's support for black voters in the polls is still 15 percent, so we will see. | ||
| But I never said they have any good reason to vote for black men. | ||
|
unidentified
|
That's not my quote. That's somebody else. | |
| All right. Doug Rutledge says, Phil is right. | ||
| I hate being called Dougie. | ||
| There you go. You know what's really fascinating, too, is, like, no one's ever called me Timmy. | ||
| Ever? My mom. | ||
| That's it. That was it. | ||
| I can't recall ever being called Timmy, except for my mom. | ||
| And then when I was four, it stopped. | ||
| So, you know. But it's weird, because Tommy lasts a long time, you know what I mean? | ||
| Tommy does. Or Johnny's. Sometimes Johnny's last. | ||
| Johnny goes all through till you die. | ||
| You could be a Richie, a Johnny. | ||
| You could be a... | ||
| I don't know. | ||
| You can't be a Billy. You can be a Billy until you're like 16, you know? | ||
| Bobby. You can be a Bobby. | ||
| Isn't it really fascinating? | ||
| Bobby would turn into Rob or Robert. | ||
| But you can still be called Bobby, like when they say Bobby Kennedy Jr. | ||
| People will still... But it's more rare. | ||
| Tommy lasts for a little bit, but Timmy stops at like four years old. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Isn't that funny how these... And diminutives work with families. | |
| There are things your family might call you that you wouldn't use in a professional setting. | ||
| Is it a diminutive? Timmy makes my name longer. | ||
| But it's affectionate. | ||
| If you're a wealthy or powerful baby boomer, you can use these names way past when you normally would as kind of a joke about it. | ||
| Where like, I'm Billy Thompson, Senator of Mississippi. | ||
| Right. Because everyone knows you're rich and powerful anyway. | ||
| Did they ever call you Ruddy? Not really. | ||
| Just Rud? Just Rudyard. | ||
| Alright, let's go. | ||
| JW's Garage says, I fix carbs daily and make a fortune doing it. | ||
| Forgotten technology and high demand. | ||
| Ka-ching. Yeah. I looked it up. | ||
| Carburetors have been out of use since the 80s. | ||
| And I know that there's equipment that still uses them, for sure. | ||
| I think farm equipment and the tugs at the airport we used had carburetors. | ||
| That's why it's funny. It's like, I ain't afraid to fix a carburetor. | ||
| I eat them for breakfast. That's a weird thing most people don't do. | ||
| It's like a niche thing. Certainly there's money to be made in doing it because it's a rarity. | ||
| But I think, if you said I worked on an oil rig, but I doubt that guy worked on an oil rig. | ||
| He was pretty big. He's a big guy. | ||
| Sean says, Tim, relax. | ||
| The carburetor guy misspoke. He meant to say carbonara. | ||
| I eat carbonara for breakfast. | ||
| I mean, carbonara's pretty good, you know? | ||
|
unidentified
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I'm a fan. Let's grab some more. | |
| Based African says, an ex I still discuss politics with confided that she believes if Trump is elected, far-right ideology will become so ingrained in the government that elections and rights will be suspended and the government will use foreign militaries to suppress uprisings because she lives in a paranoid, delusional state. This is where Democrats are. | ||
| They live in what I would describe as a paranoid, delusional state of reality. | ||
| Now, of course, there are crazy right-wing conspiracy theorists too, but this is the point I try to stress. | ||
| The right leadership, it's like, who's the most prominent conservative guy in this country, Ben Shapiro? | ||
| Yeah, I'm sorry, Ben, but he's boring. | ||
| I don't mean that disrespectfully. | ||
| I mean, you turn him on and he tells you the news, you will be adequately informed and you'll hear his opinion. | ||
| I don't mean boring as an insult. | ||
| I mean, he is not a guy screaming at the top of his lungs, banging on the walls. | ||
| He's not threatening anybody. | ||
| He is a suit-wearing Jewish Orthodox commentator who is very calm and well-mannered and gives his argument. | ||
| That's the leadership on the right. | ||
| On the left, you have people going out in the street and saying get in their faces. | ||
| You have people launching fundraisers for the far left saying Antifa doesn't exist. | ||
| You're wrong. It's just an idea. Venezuelan gangs, only a handful of them are taking over this country. | ||
| And on the right, the worst thing... | ||
| Donald Trump says, we should have the death penalty for people who, you know, kill people or something like this. | ||
| And it's like, okay, well, you know, that went a little far, I guess. | ||
| Maybe. Some people like the death penalty. | ||
| It's codified in law. I'm not a fan of it. | ||
| But Trump's not talking about extrajudicial assassinations like Obama did. | ||
| So, nobody's perfect, but my point is ultimately this. | ||
| It is a fringe on the right and a tendency on the left. | ||
| And it is because there are people on the left who don't consume a healthy news diet. | ||
| They swim in disinformation while accusing everyone else of doing it. | ||
| And it's because they don't do research. | ||
| It's terrifying, actually. | ||
| All right, we'll grab some more. | ||
| Joseph Ngo says, kept up with Candace Owens' research on Kamala. | ||
| I have not. I know that there was a big controversy with Charlemagne because Janet Jackson says Kamala wasn't black or something like that and then Charlemagne asked her about it. | ||
| Andrew Savoie? How do you pronounce it? | ||
| I don't know how you kept your composure on Piers Morgan today, but my guy, I have a new respect for you also. | ||
| Hannah Clare is a superstar. She needs a raise, otherwise you're a misogynist. | ||
| Well, you know, that may be. | ||
| That may be. Look, I've done a lot of panels. | ||
| When I go on Fox... | ||
| That never happens. I have never been on a Fox panel where someone's yelling at somebody else like that. | ||
| I mean, it's happened, I guess. | ||
| I've been on panel shows, and then I say, well, you know, I think X, Y, and Z, A, B, and C. And then the guy says, sure, but with all due respect, Tim, I think we're going to see this, that, or otherwise. | ||
| And then I'd be like, okay, fair point, but, you know, I'm going to say I think that's less likely to occur. | ||
| And they'll say, well, thank you both for coming, and that's the end of it. | ||
| With all due respect to peers... | ||
| This is wild! But I think that's what sells, so... | ||
| He likes that stuff, though. Yeah, but Piers didn't do anything wrong. | ||
| He was very calm, and he was agreeing with me, like, keep it calm. | ||
| Like, can we... Why are you attacking him in this way? | ||
| Like, what are you doing? | ||
| And I think that Piers is very professional. | ||
| And so I have agreed to go on again, if you would have me. | ||
| I thought it was interesting. I feel like with those... | ||
| You know, I was genuinely thinking, like, let's try and find where I agree with some of these guys and make those topics relevant. | ||
| And this lady just started attacking me out of nowhere. | ||
| I'm like, I don't even know you, lady. | ||
| She doesn't like being called Lady Angus. | ||
| Thank you so much. You guys are really kind. | ||
| NapalmZ says, first time SuperChat. I am so glad you have Rudyard on. | ||
| With the Civil War predictions, will a Trump win delay or possibly solve the problem? | ||
| Same question in reverse for Kamala. | ||
| I don't have a good answer. | ||
| I think that there's going to be a war either way. | ||
| I think that if Trump wins, that the right... | ||
| This is a very brutal thing to say, but I think for a lot of the population, including the political class, they are more worried about the current order continuing than it crashing. | ||
| So we shall see what happens. | ||
| Alright, the great Von Braun says, here's to Hannah Clare, wife and I are in the hospital after having our second baby yesterday, so that was my wife's idea. | ||
| This is hilarious. I love that this is becoming a thing. | ||
| Congratulations on Second Kid. | ||
| I hope everyone's happy and healthy. | ||
| Remember, you're 0.3 children away from replacement rate. | ||
| There you go. Yeah, I can do all that. | ||
| So, I was playing Civ 6 yesterday, actually. | ||
| Is that the new one? | ||
| I don't know. So, I haven't played video games in years. | ||
| I started playing them last month. | ||
| I have a campaign I've taken over, as the Romans have taken over all of Europe, half of Russia, most of America, South Africa, etc. | ||
| It's fun. The Civilization games are directionally pretty good. | ||
| They're pretty good at articulating history, especially for someone who's not a historian. | ||
| They're doing as good a job as I could expect them to. | ||
| If I were going to get into a really schizo level of analysis, I'll say empires rise and fall, and you have to deal with revolutions and disputes, and they miss a lot of the humanity, and they have a very... | ||
| Like, wig notion of history. | ||
| And the wig notion of history is that number goes up equal world gooder. | ||
| And that stems from the industrial revolution of infinite progress. | ||
| But if I were to sit in front of the game designers, I wouldn't tell them any of that because I have no idea how you'd translate any of that stuff into a game. | ||
| The second thing, Lysenkoism. | ||
| That's interesting, where... | ||
| Yeah. | ||
| biology they had in Soviet Russia and it was because Stalin was buddies with the guy who did it and it also had implications they wanted for Marxism where Lysenko was basing it off a French thinker I forget his Lamarck. It's Lamarckianism where, for example, if you have wheat and then force the wheat to go through a lot of bad winters, the wheat will alter itself to the conditions. | ||
| So let's say Lamarckianism, you shove a white person in Texas. | ||
| Within five generations, the white person is going to be looking like they're from – like they're Middle Eastern or looking like they're Mexican. | ||
| That's not the case. Lamarckianism has been proven wrong except for some test case, some like edge cases. | ||
| And Stalin wanted that because Lamarckianism fit with the blank slate that human nature is naturally perfectible. | ||
| And so Lamarckianism failed because they tried to implement all Soviet agriculture under that model and it just didn't work. | ||
| And then also it destroyed Soviet biology where the fields the Soviets were advanced in were physics where there's very – at least there are political ramifications to physics. | ||
| They're not obvious to anyone. | ||
| So the Soviets were really advanced in aeronautical stuff and physics because there are no political ramifications. | ||
| But anyone who stood against— That line in biology was just purged from the Soviet Union. | ||
| And for those who saw the last video I released, I actually think Western academia has done something similar in our lifetimes, that there are an aggregate of so many lies that have been pushed for decades. | ||
| The last lifetime since World War II that we will look back on in the future the same way we look back on Lysenkoism. | ||
| I want to just say, too, have your kids play Civilization. | ||
| I'm not kidding. I mean, once they're old enough to start to understand because there's a lot of important lessons to be learned, such as... | ||
| One day, your seemingly ally, a neighboring country, says, it shows a little avatar guy, and he's smiling, and he says, we've come bearing gifts. | ||
| And you're like, wow, thank you. And the next turn, his military is attacking your capital, and you're like, what? | ||
| And it's an important life lesson about borders, culture, technology, history. | ||
| You learn a lot, and then ultimately you learn sometimes people are evil and will stab you in the back for no reason. | ||
| But that's not the only thing. I played Civ II when I was a kid, and you learn a whole lot. | ||
| And I especially love... I played Civ IV for a bit. | ||
| I think it's the one where Leonard Nimoy has all those great quotes. | ||
| Yeah. You discover science. | ||
| As a kid, you're learning all these things, learning about the wonders of the world and all that stuff. | ||
| It really is a fascinating game. | ||
| It's very educational. My father had a rule that I could only play strategy games until age 15. | ||
| What? Yeah, he said I wasn't allowed to play shooter games or RPG games until I was 15 because he said I want you to play games that form your mind well when you're young. | ||
| Well, that's good. All right, everybody, if you haven't already, smash the like button, subscribe, share the show with everyone you know. | ||
| Head over to TimCast.com right now, because this members-only Uncensored show is going to get fun. | ||
| Yeah, we're going to talk about Civil War and stuff like that. | ||
| So again, TimCast.com, you click join us. | ||
| You can follow me on X and Instagram at TimCast. | ||
| If you're listening on any audio podcast like Apple or otherwise, please leave us a good review. | ||
| Rudyard, do you want to shout anything out? | ||
| You guys should watch my channel. | ||
| I've also got a second show, History 102, where I cover different eras of history. | ||
| Right on. What's your channel's name so other people can find it? | ||
| Oh, WhatifAltist. | ||
| WhatifAltHist. I have social media like Instagram and Twitter attached to it, whatever. | ||
| And then there's the second channel, History 102. | ||
| Right on. I am PhilThatRemains on Twix. | ||
| I am PhilThatRemainsOfficial on Instagram. | ||
| The band is All That Remains, and you can check out our new video for Let You Go. | ||
| You can check out our new video for Divine and the other one, which is No Tomorrow. | ||
| They're all available on YouTube. | ||
| You can check them out on Spotify. And don't forget, The Left Lane is for Crime. | ||
| Hannah Clare. I love when you're here and you're like, what is the name of that song? | ||
| I'm such a rock star. I have so many songs out there. | ||
| I mean, there are a lot of songs. | ||
| But the reason is I don't want to mess up and say the name of a song that we haven't released yet. | ||
| I gotcha. | ||
| Rudyard, it's been so fun having you here. | ||
| Thank you. All I can think of every time I say your name is Rudyard Kipling, who's great. | ||
| I'm Hannah Claire Brimlow. You can find me on Instagram at hannahclair.b and on X at hannahclairb. | ||
| Thanks for everything you guys do. | ||
| Have a good night. We will see you all over at TimCast.com in about one minute. |
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