The protests in France and war in Ukraine is discussed by Col Douglas Macgregor and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in this episode. Thank you all for listening and sharing our podcast. We wish you and your families a joyous and peaceful Independence Day. πΊπΈ
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| Hey everybody, we have Colonel Doug McGregor back. | |
| Colonel McGregor is a decorated combat veteran, the author of five books, a PhD, and a defense and foreign policy consultant who was commissioned in the regular army in 1976 after a year at the Virginia Military Institute and four years at West Point. | |
| In 2004, Colonel McGregor retired. | |
| In 2020, the President appointed McGregor to serve as Senior Advisor to the Secretary of Defense. | |
| He holds an MA in Comparative Politics and a PhD in International Relations from the University of Virginia. | |
| And thanks so much for joining us on the holiday. | |
| But I wanted to get a couple of quick updates from you, Colonel McGregor. | |
| First of all, can we talk for a minute about what's happening in France? | |
| Yes, sir. | |
| Can you describe it? | |
| Well, the last count that I heard was unrest in 40 cities, with the worst unrest in Marseille. | |
| And Marseille, of course, as a city, has a much higher population of North Africans, Africans, Muslims, if you will, than almost any other city in Europe. | |
| So that's not entirely surprising. | |
| But we don't have too much information. | |
| President Macron, other than committing additional policemen to contain the violence, really hasn't said very much or made any sweeping decisions. | |
| And I think everyone is waiting for some sort of definitive statement from the President of the Republic about what he plans to do. | |
| And the rioting began with a young man who was killed, I believe, at a traffic stop. | |
| Yes. | |
| And, you know, the circumstances are not clear. | |
| The policeman apologized, but, you know, that doesn't mean a great deal. | |
| It doesn't necessarily mean he did anything wrong. | |
| And it's one of these situations where the single action became a catalyst for apparently violence that was waiting to happen. | |
| I mean, the level of destruction and the degree of violence aimed at Frenchmen, France, the French society, the French Republic is really quite enormous. | |
| And so one has to ask, were they waiting for something like this to happen? | |
| Or is this just a spontaneous outburst of anger and frustration and violence against France? | |
| I don't know. | |
| And one of the things that we've seen is that President Macron is blaming the social media sites, which is likely to sort of lead to greater censorship probably in Europe, I would imagine. | |
| I think you're probably right. | |
| At this point, probably the next step is for him to declare a state of emergency, which he has not done. | |
| Yes, and we also haven't heard anything from the French military. | |
| And remember, a couple of years ago, you had a thousand French officers, including a substantial number of retired general officers, sign a document imploring him to recognize the danger inside France of the kinds of things we're seeing today. | |
| And then it was kind of put to bed again. | |
| Remember, since 1968, we've had several bouts of this kind of thing. | |
| But this is arguably the worst, with more damage than we've seen before and more danger to people. | |
| But no, he hasn't said anything. | |
| But I think the French army is waiting for some sort of direction from him, because I think their view is that this cannot be solved without their participation. | |
| And what do you think his hesitation is about declaring a state of emergency? | |
| I think he doesn't want to face the reality that he has a very divided nation. | |
| That's an ugly truth. | |
| This is just something that the French have to face. | |
| Until you face that truth, you're not going to find any solutions. | |
| Doing what you've done in the past is not going to work for the future. | |
| I don't think he's sorted through that. | |
| I don't think he has an answer. | |
| Let's talk about the Ukraine. | |
| I haven't spoken to you since the insurgency by the Wagner group. | |
| Can you give us your take on that? | |
| I think the whole Wagner incident is being largely misinterpreted in the West. | |
| I think there were lots of wishful thinkers in Washington and London in particular that hoped that this was some sort of direct challenge to Vladimir Putin. | |
| It wasn't. | |
| I think we need to establish a few facts right up front. | |
| Assuming that this was an uprising or a challenge to Putin, nobody joined it. | |
| No one inside Russia saw it that way. | |
| No single Russian military commander, no serious politician in the country supported any kind of uprising. | |
| So I'm not sure it was an uprising. | |
| Secondly, Wagner is an organization that under Russian law was only supposed to be employed beyond Russia's borders. | |
| In other words, it was not to be used inside Russia. | |
| This man, Purgosian, has obviously become very wealthy as a result of it. | |
| Incidentally, Colonel McGregor, as the audience knows, the Russian Constitution actually prohibits the presence of mercenary forces on Russian soil. | |
| Yeah, you know, my view is I don't like to use the word mercenary. | |
| I think they're analogous to the French Foreign Legion. | |
| And of course, the French Foreign Legion is always external to France, except under special circumstances. | |
| So as soon as World War I began, they brought the French Foreign Legion back to help fight. | |
| As soon as the war ended, the French Foreign Legion returned to North Africa. | |
| Same thing was true in World War II. So I think that's a better analog because everyone in the Wagner Group It's not going to happen. | |
| But this issue had really concerned, particularly the Minister of Defense, Shoigu. | |
| Shoigu had said, look, this can't go on. | |
| We have to make some provisions, arrangements. | |
| And then I think Garazimov, who doesn't like Prigozhin, said, you know, that's right. | |
| Let's disband Wagner. | |
| And of course, Prigozhin felt that that was unfair to the men that had done so much to fight for Russia. | |
| They deserve something better. | |
| And I think he was also quite angry with what he perceives to be the slow, deliberate approach to everything that the Russian high command has taken. | |
| And so his effort was to alert Putin to his displeasure, make that clear, and then also to try and get Putin's ear about the generals in the Russian army, that he doesn't think they're doing what they should. | |
| Now, it all ended rather quickly. | |
| There were some casualties. | |
| We know that Wagner, at least a small contingent of approximately 4,000, 5,000 that approached Moscow, was stopped by helicopters and aircraft. | |
| We also know that that was not ordered by Putin. | |
| That was done independent of his orders. | |
| So once this occurred, Prigozhin immediately halted everything. | |
| It turns out, the contrary to popular belief, he actually did speak to Putin over the quote-unquote phone, agreed to stop it immediately. | |
| Everyone returned to barracks. | |
| And then this deal was cut to send him and some number of Wagner soldiers to I don't think there was a genuine uprising. | |
| Putin is stronger than he's ever been. | |
| If you believe the polls that we can take in Russia through various sources, his approval rating is about 89%, which is certainly infinitely better than the 30% we give to President Biden. | |
| So I think that is over. | |
| Now, what will happen in the future? | |
| I think today, Russians are waiting for President Putin to make some decisions. | |
| Is he going to follow up this failed counterattack or failed counteroffensive from the Ukrainians with an aggressive offensive of his own? | |
| Or is he going to continue to wait behind these defenses to see if anything else is left and then make a decision? | |
| We don't know. | |
| I have no idea, but we do know a new commander in the theater is supposed to take over. | |
| That man is the commander of Russian Airborne Forces. | |
| I know nothing about him, and I've seen no official confirmation of it, but there are numerous outlets that continue to insist there's going to be a new commander and that General Gerasimov is going to go back to doing what he did before and act as the chief of the general staff. | |
| And was Gerasimov the cause of the slow movement or the defensive posture of the Russian forces? | |
| You know, we really don't know. | |
| The truth of the matter is that President Putin, from the very beginning of this operation, was very reluctant to commit large forces. | |
| He thought he would have a negotiating partner. | |
| It took several months for him to finally conclude no one would talk to him. | |
| And then he agreed with the general officers that were in command that they would need a larger force. | |
| Remember, this place is the size of Texas. | |
| And they simply said, look, we don't have enough forces. | |
| If you want to seize this place and secure it at all, we need more troops. | |
| And so we've had this buildup. | |
| Now we've got about 750,000 troops in Western Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine, Russian troops. | |
| They're trained, they're ready, they can move, they can attack. | |
| Will he attack or is he going to continue to sit? | |
| Now, clearly, Putin is watching what's happening in the West. | |
| Seeing what's happening in France has definitely had an impact. | |
| I think he knows that we have our own problems and that we are much weaker internally than he is. | |
| Russian cohesion is at an all-time high. | |
| He has no trouble with support inside Russia whatsoever. | |
| But I think we have serious questions now in the European electorates, much more so than in the United States, about the wisdom of continuing this policy. | |
| So I think he's waiting to see as well whether or not there's any change in any of the governments in Europe. | |
| I mean, do you see any link? | |
| I'm not suggesting that there is one, but do you see any link between the discontent on the street in France and what's happening in the Ukraine, or are they completely disconnected from each other? | |
| No, sir. | |
| I don't think they're completely disconnected. | |
| I think there are multiple complaints in France. | |
| And I think the one in France right now is the significant truth. | |
| I mean, you've got millions of people who don't necessarily sign on for French law, French legal institutions, the French police, the French military. | |
| How do you handle that? | |
| What are you going to do about it? | |
| So I think in that sense, Putin sees France as maybe a bellwether for what could happen in many other parts of Europe. | |
| The situation in Italy is not good. | |
| The situation in Germany is not good. | |
| Those are the two biggest economies in the European Union. | |
| So I think all of these things are on Putin's mind, and that may have some impact on him. | |
| Now, as far as the war is concerned, I don't see much evidence, to be perfectly blunt, that anyone in Western Europe is interested in fighting in Eastern Ukraine. | |
| So I just don't see it. | |
| And I think most Americans, if they were challenged, you think we should support the Ukrainians. | |
| Oh, yeah, we should help them. | |
| Well, why don't we send 150,000 troops into Ukraine? | |
| I think you're going to get it. | |
| What? | |
| What? | |
| We didn't sign on for that. | |
| So I don't think the support... | |
| For a serious Western intervention in what's happening in Ukraine is really very strong. | |
| I think it's razor thin. | |
| And what about Ukrainian troop strength? | |
| I mean, where they've killed a tremendous number of people, are they able to replace those at the front line? | |
| I know that there are press gangs operating in Western Ukraine now, even in the Carpathians, in what we call Southern Galicia. | |
| And they're trying to forcibly round up people to serve in the Ukrainian army. | |
| They're running out of able-bodied men, and more men have left Ukraine. | |
| If anybody can get out of Ukraine, they're continuing to leave. | |
| The trains are arriving in Germany full of Ukrainians virtually every day. | |
| My German friends see lots of single men getting off the trains. | |
| I don't think there's any enthusiasm left in Ukraine. | |
| They know that the hospitals are full, the death toll. | |
| It depends on who you talk to. | |
| Probably 300,000 dead, could be 350,000 dead, and we're not even addressing the terrible, terrible wounds that people have sustained and the inability to ever return most of the wounded to active duty. | |
| I think they're scraping the bottom of the barrel. | |
| And is President Zelenskyy's popularity holding up in the Ukraine, or are people beginning to question some of that leadership? | |
| I think his leadership is widely questioned, and I think people are very afraid of the Ukrainian secret police. | |
| They're afraid of ending up in jail or much worse. | |
| We have all sorts of videos being posted by Ukrainian soldiers showing Ukrainian officers killing Ukrainian soldiers who refuse to fight. | |
| We also know that we've had a lot of desertions. | |
| Platoon size and company size elements, that's anywhere from 30 up to 150 people, have come across and surrendered to the Russians. | |
| And from the very beginning, the Russians have always treated the Ukrainians that surrendered very, very well. | |
| So they know they're not going to be mistreated. | |
| They know they're going to be fed and cared for. | |
| And several times, people have surrendered, saying, I've got a lot of wounded here. | |
| My Ukrainian superiors refuse to evacuate these people. | |
| They tell me I've got to fight on, but if I do, all of these men will die, and I don't want them to die. | |
| So they've been told, well, then come on over. | |
| You know, we'll take care of them. | |
| So I think this is the end phase. | |
| The only thing keeping this... | |
| Ukrainian effort on life support, frankly, is the United States. | |
| Primarily, we're sending in the cash, we're sending in equipment, we're sending ammunition, whatever we can, and we're pushing our lives to do the same thing. | |
| Cut that off and this tragedy will end. | |
| You are a warfighter, Colonel McGregor, and probably the greatest hero during the Iraq War. | |
| How do they communicate? | |
| If a platoon wants to surrender to the Russians, how do they communicate that? | |
| Remember, they all speak Russian. | |
| Many of the Ukrainians, virtually every Ukrainian speaks Russian. | |
| That doesn't mean there aren't Ukrainians that speak Ukrainian. | |
| There are. | |
| But the bottom line, it's very easy to essentially put up a white flag and then yell across in Russian, look, we want to talk. | |
| And the Russians immediately cease fire and then you have an exchange. | |
| Sometimes they actually come up on one another's radios. | |
| Now, how they get each other's frequency is anybody's guess, but That's also happened. | |
| So the communication is there. | |
| They go back and forth. | |
| Remember, the people that the Russians were most concerned about were always in this Azov regiment, these radical, self-styled neo-Nazis. | |
| The vast majority of the soldiers in the Ukrainian army do not fall into that category. | |
| They're normal people, most of whom would prefer to be home. | |
| And as the Azov Battalion, most of them are now dead or wounded, right? | |
| Right. | |
| Yeah, I think so, but they seem to have replenished some of their ranks. | |
| They went into a long period of raising new manpower and new people. | |
| That seems to have happened. | |
| How many of them are around and how effective they are, I don't know. | |
| I'm told that a group of these radicals surrounds Zelensky and his government, and probably to ensure that no one there considers seriously negotiating with Moscow. | |
| And what is your impression or do you have any kind of polling data or intuition or anecdotal data about the attitude towards Zelensky among the expatriate community of Ukrainians in Europe and in the United States? | |
| The further away you get from Ukraine, the further away you are from the war zone, the more Ukrainians you will find that support Zelensky. | |
| The closer you get to Ukraine, and when you move into the war zone, that's where you begin to discover his support is largely gone. | |
| Without the secret police, without the threat of violence against individuals, I don't think he would stay in power for very long. | |
| Colonel McGregor, thank you so much for taking some time off from your 4th of July weekend to join us. | |
| Keep making your speeches and talking out there. | |
| You're having a huge impact. | |
| Don't listen to anybody that tells you otherwise. | |
| As usual, you really make a huge contribution to our understanding of what's happening over there. | |
| So thank you for immersing yourself in that and sharing your knowledge with us. | |
| Thank you, sir. | |
| And have a great 4th of July. |