Bob Lighthizer argues Trump’s tariffs are the only way to reverse America’s $23.5 trillion wealth drain, citing 25 years of stagnant wages, shrinking middle-class life expectancy, and China’s rise—now leading in 57 of 64 critical tech sectors. He blames hyper-globalization, state-subsidized manufacturing, and currency manipulation, warning China’s military expansion (nuclear silos, South China Sea militarization) and economic espionage pose an existential threat. Lighthizer advocates "strategic decoupling," reshoring manufacturing, and export-import controls to counter China’s debt-trap diplomacy and fentanyl trafficking, framing the U.S. trade deficit as a national security risk. With Ashtabula’s 35% poverty as a cautionary tale, he insists tariffs will restore dignity in work—despite short-term disruptions—while mainstream economists’ focus on consumption over wealth distribution fuels political backlash. [Automatically generated summary]
So, that's the fundamental question, Tucker, and thank you for having me on.
It's a pleasure to be here.
I've been a fan for a long time.
So, I think you have to start with the proposition, has the system failed?
And to me, it's an emphatic yes.
I think of it in sort of two ways.
One, if you think of the...
The way trade is supposed to work, you're supposed to export in order to import.
And then you get the benefit of trade.
You get actually, you do what you do best, I do what I do best.
Or I do what you do less best.
You export, we import and we get the benefit.
We both have higher standards of living.
That's not really what it's evolved to.
It's evolved to now where you have a few countries, the United States being the biggest, that have an open capital system and an open trading system, and other countries have an industrial policy that is designed not to increase the The standard of living of their citizens,
but to gain wealth.
So what they're trying to do is get wealth in order to get assets in the United States, in order to get technology, in order to get all these kind of things that make you wealthy.
So I think of the kind of failure points as being, one, because this system doesn't work, we have this giant transfer of wealth from the United States overseas.
Of trade deficits.
And the way the system is supposed to work, no one should have large trade deficits for long periods of time.
Things can happen.
You can do it.
You could have trade deficits with one country, surplus with another.
But the notion of a country having hundreds of billions of dollars of trade deficits every year is not how it's supposed to work.
They calculate them at about $700 or $800 billion.
If you did it the way you or I would do, in a sensible way, you'd probably be at a trillion or a trillion and a quarter dollars.
So that's a transfer of wealth from Americans overseas in return for current consumption.
And it has nothing to do with economics.
It's entirely the result of industrial policy of other people and are being defenseless.
So you ask yourself, What does that mean over a period of time?
Why should I worry about that?
There's a data point called the international investment position of a country.
And that is how much, for us, all Americans own throughout the entire world versus how much everyone else owns here.
That number is a negative $23.5 trillion.
And if you said, what was it 20 years ago?
It was probably a negative $3 trillion.
We have transferred about $20 trillion worth of our national wealth, and I would say the future income of that wealth, overseas in return for current consumption.
So, well, I mean, so they own $23.5 trillion worth of stuff.
But if you said, what is it mostly?
It's probably mostly debt.
A lot of it's debt.
A lot of it is equity in our companies.
Real estate, those are the principal things that they own.
Those are the big assets.
Debt is a big one, but also ownership and equity, a lot of it portfolio.
Now, some of it is foreign direct investment where a company actually comes in and buys a piece of land and creates jobs.
But most of it isn't that.
Most of it is just they own.
If you think about the United States for most of our history, particularly since the Second World War, Americans were thought rich because we owned more overseas than people owned in America.
That's what makes you rich.
Now we are poor to the extent of $23.5 trillion.
Now, this point is an interesting one.
In 2003, Warren Buffett did an article on this point.
And he was worried about the trade deficit because it was leading to a negative net international investment position of Americans.
And it was basically transferring.
Well, it's the same thing I am.
When he was worried about in 2003 that the number was a negative $2.3 trillion.
So since he sort of raised the red flag on this and said we've got to get back to balanced trade, the situation has gotten geometrically worse.
So that's the first condemnation of the current system.
And we can talk at great length about that if you like.
The second is this system has really slowed economic growth in the United States.
So let me give you a point here.
If you think from the 1960 to 1980, And then 1980 to 2000 and 2000 to the present.
Think in those three increments.
From 1960 to 1980, we had 14 years of plus 3% GDP growth.
All right, reasonable GDP growth.
From 1980 to 2000, again, we had 14 years of plus GDP growth.
Since 2000 to now, we have had three years.
And one of those was COVID, which doesn't really count.
So the last time we had plus 3% GDP growth was 18 or 19 years ago.
And that coincides with this period of uber, some would say, hyper-globalization, hyper-free trade that came on largely in the 1990s.
So we've seen the transfer of wealth overseas were getting poorer.
America can have a slower economic growth.
We've also seen a deterioration of our technology, of our technological lead.
Well, but, yeah, but the demographics is an interesting point, and I agree with what Vice President Bass talked about the other day about how One of the things about immigration is it does get you dependent on low wages, and when you depend on low wages,
it tends to stifle innovation.
So I agree with that.
But I'm making a little different point.
If you think when you lose manufacturing and you lose manufacturing jobs, it also slows down your innovation.
There was this notion that, well, we'll innovate and others will manufacture, but it doesn't work that way.
Most of the innovation is near the point of manufacturing.
So what are my data points to suggest that we are falling behind?
All right, first is we invented the personal computer.
Now we make almost none, and none without foreign parts.
We invented the semiconductor.
We make now 8% of the global amount.
We used to dominate it.
We could say the same thing about rare earths.
We didn't invent them, but we used to dominate that.
Solar panels, we could go through all of these various things, nuclear energy, all of these things, where we have lost.
Not only lost our lead, but basically fallen out of the competition.
But very importantly, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, which is this wonderful institute that's supported by the government of Australia, but also private sector people, they track 64 what they call critical technologies.
64. The United States is behind China in 57 of the 64. And these are things like AI and robotics and the kind of things you need.
And if you said, where were we 15 years ago?
We were behind in three.
So you've seen this deterioration during this period of hyper-globalization or hyper-free trade or huge trade deficits.
You've seen us actually fall behind technologically.
But the fourth and by far most important ramification of this process.
Is we've seen a real deterioration in the quality of life of our working class people, right?
So the United States, two-thirds of American workers have a high school education only.
Two-thirds.
So it's not like we're talking about some fringe group on the side.
This is the heart of who we are.
We have seen these people lose their jobs.
We've seen their wages stagnant for 25 years.
There was a bump in Trump one, but we're basically back where we were.
You've seen them actually have shorter lives.
Angus Deaton and Anne Case did a book called Desolate Despair that demonstrated that these people now live, on average, about eight years shorter lives.
Because of alcohol and drugs and suicide.
To give you an idea, when I was young, that differential was probably about a year.
And now it's eight years.
We've seen they are poorer.
We've seen despair increase.
We've seen devastation.
You don't have to drive very far in America to see devastated communities.
All of this, the result of this failed attempt at globalization, this failed attempt.
At free trade.
And another aspect of it is we have seen not only our workers been treated very badly, but the distribution of wealth in America has gone just like this.
One of the great things about America, for me particularly growing up, but I mean, even you, you're younger, was this notion that we're all middle class.
Now, we weren't always really, but we thought of ourselves.
They all thought of this as having about the same chance of success, which is an important point.
Now what we have for the first time in American history, the top 1% has more wealth than the middle 60%.
It's never happened before.
We find, kind of combining these thoughts, and we get this from Angus Neaton, we find for the first time starting in 2000, when this explosion took place in hyperglobalization, we find that American children can no longer expect to live longer than and be richer than their parents.
That was what we all thought.
We're going to be better off than our parents and we're going to live longer.
That is no longer true.
And I could go through one data point after another.
If you look, when I was in high school, the top 1% had about 30 times as much wealth as the person in the middle.
These crises that I've talked about, this transfer of wealth, the technology, the slow economic growth, but mostly the effect on our working people, that is why Reagan was elected at the very beginning of this, and we can talk about the history of that, and it absolutely is why Donald Trump was elected president.
Reagan had these so-called Reagan Democrats, that we all remember that.
That was the beginning of those people, because that was when we sort of reached the peak.
By the time we got to the 2000s, these people were a movement, this populist movement, and they are the reason that Donald Trump is where he is.
And to his credit, Donald Trump talked about this and worried about this issue since he was 35 years old.
This is not—this is, in my opinion, the essence of Donald Trump.
Donald Trump's essence is we're getting—he says we're getting ripped off our— Our workers are getting screwed.
It's not because they're lazy or stupid.
It's because we have a bad system that is hurting them, and it's destabilizing the country.
And all of these are data points that kind of make that point.
And once you realize that, you realize you have to do something, right?
The purpose of the economy, first of all, obviously, is national security.
But after that, it's to distribute.
Resources and wealth so that most Americans live the best lives they can live.
It doesn't feel necessarily like we've evolved into this.
It feels like we've been guided into this, that this is a result of calculations and an ideology that still exists most prominently in the pages of the Wall Street Journal, which let me just say is a disgusting, dishonest newspaper.
But even if you like the Wall Street Journal, they have a very kind of clear ideology, which they've promoted along with almost everybody in Washington, that free trade is the path to prosperity.
And then in fact, it's like a moral imperative, like if there's something dirty about abandoning free trade, what is that?
Obviously, you know a lot about this since you've lived in Washington a long time.
I say they have the diversity, the editorial page has the diversity of opinion protocol of somewhere between Pravda and the People's Daily.
It is their view and they keep it.
So, you know, why did we get to this stage?
To some extent, it was kind of misguided.
To some extent, it was wealthy people pushing it because it was good for them.
I'm not one who subscribes to the view that it was people trying to hurt America.
I think it was, they just didn't care one way or another whether it hurt.
They didn't care.
For example, who owned America?
They didn't care what percentage of our global wealth ended up in the hands of our working people.
Those were not metrics.
What they cared about was price optimization and how much we could consume.
And that's the opposite of what people like you and I believe in.
Conservatives...
And a lot of labor Democrats believe we have to worry about values and preserving what's great in America.
We're not interested in sort of the materialism of maximizing, optimizing prices and maximizing consumption.
And that's more or less where that's.
There's a combination of that.
There's a combination of this financialization of America, of taking profit out right away so that a few people get very rich.
Regardless of the effect on others.
If you think of the evolution, Tucker, it's, and we could talk, you know, from the beginning of time about trade and how it evolved, but for our purposes, you would think of it basically as America really from the early 1800s basically became Wealthier and wealthier,
largely behind the American system.
And Alexander Hamilton kind of an idea of tariffs and subsidies, subsidies in the nature of canals and roads and the like.
But tariffs were a key part.
By 1870, we had started to turn surpluses.
By 1890, we're the richest country in the world, all right?
And it kind of progresses like that.
And we can talk about that back and forth.
And those were almost all Republican presidents during that entire period, only two Democrats during that entire period, between Lincoln and...
Franklin Roosevelt.
And basically tariffs were a key tool, and there were ups and downs in that, and we can talk about that if people are interested.
But we got to the Second World War, and then we had a different challenge.
We had to rebuild Europe.
We wanted to rebuild Japan for stability.
We wanted to fight communism in the Soviet Union.
These were our motivations.
And so at that point, we needed a new system, and they developed this new trading system.
And the trading system was sort of based on the notion of we'll all reduce barriers, we'll all do better over a period of time.
I would say that was, at times it was a successful idea, at times it wasn't a successful idea.
But by the time we got a few, several decades into it, we started seeing people being more and more industrial policy.
And by the 1970s into the late 1970s, we started to see our situation get worse.
We started having trade deficits.
You'll recall that Nixon in 1971 put tariffs on the whole world in order to...
Decouple from gold.
We can talk about that if people are interested.
But there were a lot of things that were sort of signals, and that was kind of the peak.
By the time we got to Ronald Reagan, as I say, there was already a loss of a lot of jobs.
There was an unsettling among our working class people, which, as I say, unlike a lot of places, it is us.
It's 70, 65, 70 percent of it.
It is us.
And then you found yourself, the Berlin Wall fell.
There was this notion of the end of history that for now on everything is going to be better.
We're all going to be democracies and we're all going to have open markets and there's all this greatness.
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When life expectancy in an advanced country goes backward, I don't think there's any clearer sign of an emergency.
I mean, that's the one thing you can't fake when people die.
It's actually bad for the rich as well as the poor when you have a stratified class system like we're getting, which didn't exist.
By the way, spend three weeks in Australia, which is a country with a lot of problems, but it's still a middle-class country, and you can feel it in the way people talk to each other, in their attitudes.
We're all sort of in this together.
You do not get that sense in a pyramid-shaped social structure at all.
And that's the biggest change of my lifetime is the end of the middle class as a majority and the end of the egalitarian spirit that defined America, that Anglo-egalitarianism, which is not a feature of other countries.
No, I couldn't agree more.
It makes me hate the people in charge for ignoring this stuff.
Everything I'm talking about either basically shifts.
National wealth from consumers to manufacturers to give them an edge.
And the tax system, currency manipulation, there's all these things.
These things are, the point I'm trying to make is are multiples in terms of importance versus tariffs.
If we have equal tariffs with everyone in the world at zero, for example, we won't have a middle class, we won't have manufacturing because all these other factors.
We'll give them this unfair, uneconomic advantage.
And we can go through it.
And the president, to his credit, in his truth, where he laid this out, he said it's not just tariffs.
It's all these other things.
And the Jameson Green of the USTR is looking at all these other things.
But when we think of...
The kind of migration for me, let me just say, was like, okay, we need free trade.
And then you said, okay, we need fair trade.
The reality is you can't get fair trade because there's too many ways to twist it.
What we really need, I've evolved to, is balanced trade.
We need a system that enforces kind of trade balance, not with countries, but globally.
Countries shouldn't be able to be...
Huge surplus countries year after year, like China, of course, being the worst example, but also Germany.
Ireland is evolving to that.
There's a bunch of other countries we could talk about.
Countries shouldn't be able to do that.
And so you say, well, how do you achieve that?
You really need to put in place, I would say, some kind of tariffs to offset this fundamental unfairness.
You're not just offsetting their tariffs.
Europe's 10% on autos.
We're 2.5%.
If Europe went to zero, we still wouldn't sell very many cars in Europe.
We just wouldn't.
Our companies basically make small trucks.
They don't need them there.
I mean, it's just there's a lot of reasons why that wouldn't happen.
But what you need, you can't have countries have huge trade surpluses over long periods of time.
You have to enforce and you have to penalize countries that have surpluses all the time.
And let countries that have deficits all the time get back to balance.
If you do that, you then get the benefits of trade.
So how do you get to balance trade?
There's basically three ways you can get to balance trade.
One is the way that Warren Buffett talked about in this article.
And it's a wonderful article.
I recommend anyone to read it.
I would just Google Warren Buffett squanderville because he talks about squanderville and thriftville.
And he says what we should do is have export-import certificates.
So in order to import, you need an export certificate.
So you want to bring in T-shirts, you go to a steel mill and say, okay, fine, you export it, I want to buy that.
And that would get you to balance.
And I would certainly support that.
Another way you could do it is you could put, and this is a little more complicated, you could put a tax on the money that comes back.
This $23.5 trillion, this trillion dollars that comes back every year where they buy U.S. assets, you could tax that.
So that really wasn't worth a dollar.
It was only worth 80 cents.
In that case, there would be less incentive for people to run up these zero buses.
That's called a capital access fee, and there are people that will propose that, and that also would work.
And then there's tariffs.
So I prefer tariffs, one, because people understand them.
Two, every country in the world has a system set up to deal with tariffs right now.
They all have the legality.
They all have the process of how to do it.
Three, they're flexible.
You can move them around based on need to get to your objective of balance.
But any three of those things would work.
And I just think, and obviously the president thinks, that tariffs are the simplest, easiest, most understood way to kind of do it.
And the objective has to be to offset all unfairness and to get, move towards, over a period of time, move towards balance and ultimately have balanced trade.
If you had balanced trade, you'd have another trillion dollars worth of domestic GDP, right?
I mean, it would be a huge boom and most of it would be, or a lot of it would be in manufacturing and things spun off by manufacturing.
And that's what the president is trying to do.
He's trying to get us.
To use tariffs, to move towards balance, to get a better distribution of wealth within our country so that working people end up with a higher percentage of the wealth.
And we have this economic boom that's going to come by from reducing that huge perennial trade deficit.
No, well, you're in a pretty small group of people that have everything in common except sense.
So this is a view.
We people who think like I do, and I believe the president's in this category, really think manufacturing is essential.
One, the wages are better.
The benefits are better.
People stay in the jobs better for that group of people that are not going to be brain surgeons and astronauts.
Secondly, if you look at manufacturing, It employs about 80% of American engineers.
It accounts for about 90% of private sector R&D.
It disproportionately accounts for productivity gains.
So if you go write down the kind of things you use to measure your economy more and more, manufacturing throws off about eight or nine jobs for every job in manufacturing, and these are good jobs.
And finally, you need manufacturing to have innovation.
You need manufacturing to defend your country.
Without manufacturing, and that doesn't just mean...
On this national security issue, it doesn't just mean being able to make bombs and submarines.
It means being able to make steel and automobiles and batteries and solar panels.
You have to make all those things to have, and semiconductor chips.
To wage war or to deter a war from happening, which is probably really our objective.
So these people who think we're post-industrial are just fundamentally wrong.
And once again, they don't really – it doesn't bother them who owns America.
It doesn't bother them, the distributions in the country.
And it doesn't bother them that we're funneling behind technologically.
What they're thinking about is, yes, but we're optimizing consumption.
If it doesn't bother you who owns the country, if it doesn't bother you what's happening to the people who live in the country, then, you know, I think it's fair to assume you have no love for the country.
How did people who have no love for the country end up running the country?
It is, I think a lot of these people, well, some of them just don't like the country because of our history for various, they'll take up a data point in our history and say that means we're bad.
A lot of them take it for granted.
But once again, I'm not an expert on that.
I certainly agree with your conclusion.
It's troubling to me people who are globalists, not only economic globalists, but sort of geopolitical globalists.
They don't realize that there's a force that wants to take over the world.
Indeed, there are lots of them.
And those forces, if they succeeded, would be very bad for America.
A lot of us who were sort of united in this...
In this Cold War, particularly in the early years, it kind of brought the country together.
We realized we were in a Cold War.
Indeed, I think we're in a Cold War, a second Cold War now.
But I think there's just more fifth columnists than there used to be.
It was a little town between Cleveland and Erie, Pennsylvania.
It was a port town.
They had steel.
They didn't have steel mills, but they had steel fabrication.
They made a lot of auto parts.
Indeed, at one point, the fiberglass body of the Corvette was made in Asheville, one of the famous things about us.
They brought in ore from the Great Lakes and entrained it down to Pittsburgh, where they made steel.
Obviously, there was agriculture, a lot of agriculture in the area, a lot of machine tools, those kinds of things.
It was the sort of stuff that was really, really hit first with the Japanese wave that came on and which wave was one of the other motivating things in President Trump's mind because he...
That was the first thing that we all complained about was Japan and Japanese cars and the like, and then it was all Japanese manufacturing.
And once again, I just want to say, and I love Japan, I'm not anti-Japanese at all, but that had nothing to do with economics either.
It was they kept their currency low, they had an industrial policy to subsidize all this, and then we stayed here and they took our jobs.
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And being proud of your job is a huge part of the formula for...
A healthy, strong, stable nation.
If there's a huge difference between making something and being a mortgage broker, I'm sorry.
And what I always say, Tucker, is we need a country where parents are hopeful for their children, but where children are proud of their parents.
And we're losing that.
We need that.
We need families where people work and do productive, good work, and they're proud of the work, and they feel better about themselves, and they project that to their children and to the community, to the Little League,
You go to Cleveland, you can't go to these major cities.
It's Chicago.
It's Omaha.
You go to these cities and you say, it shouldn't be like this.
And the kind of notion, Tucker, was that we were sort of taught at a period, well, the people were lazy or they were in unions and that was bad or that the managers were bad.
And none of those were true.
It was the result of an economic policy.
Largely in other countries and a defenseless kind of foolish notion of benign neglect in America.
And all of these bad outcomes are the result of this.
And other things.
I don't want to simplify it too much, but it's a sad thing.
And we now have a chance to turn it around.
And is that going to create disruption?
Of course it's going to create disruption.
There's never been great change that didn't create disruption.
But the price, which I don't think will be great, will be dwarfed by the benefit if we have people working class people in the middle class again and hopeful and dignified and staying married and innovating and doing the kinds of things that America needs.
there's nothing I want more than that for the country.
And you can hear the bitterness of my voice as someone who spent his life in DC. But I just want to say once again, that all of these changes were defended and explained by a whole,
field of academic study and the propaganda that it supported coming from Washington, the free market think tanks, Cato, AEI especially, basically tried to tell you for 40 years as you watched your country die that this was all good.
And I do think they should be
Publicly shamed for that, if not held accountable.
And so you end up with the Chamber of Commerce of the United States in favor of these things that are quite harmful to the people that I care about and that the president cares about.
And they're not against these things because they help those people.
That's just not a function.
They're against them because the elites, the powers that be that are benefiting from the system, object to them.
Now, on your question about economists, there are a growing number of economists who see this problem.
They don't necessarily agree with me on the solution, right?
But if you see, you know, Angus Deaton is one who would say, we have to re-evaluate whether the costs of this thing called free trade were worse.
We're worth the benefits.
And that's an important first step.
Paul Romer, another Nobel laureate, has the same thing.
So you can go through and you can find various ones.
There's a guy named Michael Pettis who's a Carnegie guy who's thought these things through.
He wrote a book 10 years ago called Trade Wars or Class Wars with a guy named Matthew Klein.
So there is some...
Some movement, but I don't want to suggest that it's a light at the end of the tunnel.
It's maybe a prick, you know, a thousand miles away.
But, you know, I'm hopeful that economists, I've had several of them tell me, well, you're wrong, but you at least realize that, you know, we at least agree with you that things aren't good.
You know, so there's the beginning of people starting to see it.
So, you said there were, if you take a system that's been in place for generations, which the current one has been, even if it doesn't work well, even if it hurts your country, changing it is still, or changing anything that's been in place a long time is still,
major lift and it has turmoil that accompanies it.
So can you just be more specific about what sort of turmoil you anticipate as this administration puts
First of all, I have complete confidence that the president will do what he said he's going to do, right?
And unlike a lot of politicians, he ran on like real substance and big ideas.
And this is probably the biggest of the ideas that he ran on.
And I think he's going to follow through on his promises because that's the most important thing.
The worst case would be that he doesn't.
So what you have to do is put in place tariffs, as I say, to offset not just tariffs.
That's a tiny thing.
I just keep going back to this point because it's so fundamental.
The problem is not just foreign tariffs.
That's a tiny part of the problem.
But to offset this unfairness.
So he has to put those tariffs in place.
When you do that, I do not believe you'll have inflation, and we should talk about that in a systemic, fundamental way.
But you will have...
People who have supply chains that are going to have to make adjustments, you've got some things that may go up in price for some period of time.
And all these kinds of things will have an impact on people in daily life.
But I think it'll be short-term.
I call them disruptions.
I think it'll be short-term.
I don't think it'll lead to systemic inflation.
And I think that people say, well, what should a businessman do?
And I say, the smarter businessmen and businesswomen are going to figure it out, right?
And they get paid a lot of money to do that, and they're going to say, here are the rules.
Just on that point, I've had business people, really smart business people, when I would explain this problem, and they would say, Bob, it's the government's responsibility to set up the rules.
I'll figure out a way to make money in the rules.
That's my responsibility.
But I shouldn't be doing this social stuff.
That's not my job.
My job is to make whatever widgets and to make them profitably, employ my people.
And I think that's kind of an important point.
It's President Trump's responsibility now.
He's the president.
To set in place a system where these good results for our people will come out.
And I think he will.
So, you're going to have to have tariffs to offset this basic unfairness.
That will lead to some disruption.
Over a reasonably short period of time, I think you're going to see this manufacturing renaissance, these new jobs.
Wages go up, right?
This notion that...
We're not productive because our wages are going up.
I'm like, I had this conversation with someone in the White House early on, and this was in the first term, and he was concerned about wage inflation.
And I said to him, I said, this is by the way a person...
You know, I want these people to make more money and do better and inspire their children and do all the things you do in a community to make the country great.
So anyway, there will be changes.
The whole notion at a micro scale, in my opinion.
It's to take more resources from the very wealthy and spread them out among the people.
So a liberal will say, I diagnose the problem the way Lighthizer does.
Let's tax the rich people and give it to the other people.
My idea, that's insanity.
What you need to do is devise a structure where these people have good jobs and make lots of money.
And that's the way you transfer resources and make the country good.
You don't do it by tax policy or things like that.
So when you think about tariffs, you have to kind of think of it in two categories.
There are, I think, like two buckets.
There are national security issues which you have to deal with.
If the issue is of sufficient importance to really merit national attention, you should do everything you can to solve that problem.
If we were in a war, people would say, of course, do whatever you have to, right?
Take over, whatever.
So he has some things, and in this case primarily some others, but primarily this fentanyl issue with Canada and Mexico, mostly a Mexican issue, and that's a national security issue.
In my opinion, it's not an economic issue, and it should be separated from it.
Do you think fentanyl is a sufficiently important crisis to merit doing everything you can to solve it?
I believe it is.
So for me, doing something in that space makes sense, and the president threatened that, and I think we got good results.
That's national security.
The bigger question is, and you can use that tool in other times, and the debate is not whether the tool is appropriate.
The debate is whether the national security issue is of sufficient importance to pay that price.
So then the other issue is tariffs generally to get us to, I would say, balance.
Some people would say fairness.
Some people would say reciprocity.
But basically to get us to balance, to offset all this unfair, not just tariffs, but unfair practices.
And I think what you're going to see on April 2nd is an attempt.
You're seeing the USTR and...
And the Secretary of Treasury, U.S. doing the kind of day-to-day work on Secretary of Treasury and Secretary of Commerce, recommending to the president a series of tariff increases.
And now how the form that takes, I don't think it's really been determined yet.
I think the direction is, the need is.
But I think you're going to have to have a system that says, here are the issues that are part of this industrial policy that are creating this unfairness.
And one of them is, as I say, taxes and value-added taxes.
And if people are sure we can talk about that in a second.
And then the notion that the president has is, well, we'll tariff people in order to get them back to whatever we think of as enough to offset their unfairness.
At some point, And he's right, of course.
But at some point, you're going to have to simplify that because you can't have 4,000 tariff codes in 180 countries.
You know what I mean?
You would need a supercomputer to decide what you know.
So at some point, there's going to be some synthesizing of it to sort of say, okay, if you're in these categories, if you have these things, you get this rate and that.
And the important thing for people to understand, I tried to explain to people.
It isn't like he's going to say, okay, here's April 2nd.
Now, going forward, everything is perfect.
You're going to have to have adjustments.
We're always going to still be here.
There'll be mistakes in the way it's made, and you're going to have to take care of exclusions and individual people and work it out.
We did that, and one of the reasons that when the president imposed tariffs in such a grand way, the last time, it never happened before, the reason that it didn't blow up.
really was that we let the steam out of the balloon.
We had to.
We did enough so that
We took care of urgent problems that might have collateral effects, which were not good.
You know, there was this thing called concentrated benefits and diffuse payments.
This guy Buchanan, who was the economist, and he basically talked about the political system.
And he said that, you know, sort of things happen when the person who gets the concentrated benefit, he is more motivated.
To get his way and to push his way through all the people with diffuse payments.
And we've kind of had that system.
My hope is that we can kind of reverse that and push back on those people who have had the concentrated benefits and give more of the benefits to the people who until now at least have been...
You know, relatively quiet and just accepting of a pretty bad hand dealt to him.
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So, Tucker, I think there's going to be disruption, and disruption is going to have some prices go up, but some won't.
So let's think about inflation just the way we should think about it.
One, inflation is a systemic thing.
It's not like your shirt costs more.
If your pants cost less, that's not inflation.
That's just a more expensive shirt.
So the question is whether it's going to systemically raise prices.
A lot of people would say, Including Milton Friedman, that's really a monetary phenomenon.
It's basically monetary policy that's going to dictate whether everything goes up or everything goes down.
And this is not going to change monetary policy necessarily.
Now, someone might say, oh, it's going to slow down the economy, thus we should lower interest rates.
Someone else will say it's going to have inflation, thus we should raise interest rates.
So it's kind of a conundrum for the Fed.
But set that aside.
The notion is that you will increase production in the United States, you will maintain consumption at about the same, and that will not be inflationary, if anything.
It'll be deflationary.
So that's our idea.
There's a model that some economists use called the GTAP model, which, by the way, generally...
Assumes you cannot get economic growth, that you're a full capacity, industrial capacity and full employment.
So if you have a model like that, then that's going to show inflation.
But I would suggest that the model is not predictive.
And indeed, the St. Louis Fed made the statement a few years ago that the predictive quality of this model is 0.0%.
So a lot of the economists are using a model that's unhelpful.
But so the notion is you're going to increase production, and that will happen, and that that is not going to be inflationary.
The idea is that inflation is systemic, not individual prices, so you can't just stack stuff up.
The other thing is, in the argument against inflation, is that we did it last time in a big way.
All the same people said it would be inflationary, and we had no inflation, right?
We had 1.3%, so we had no inflation.
So they were proven wrong.
And then the final thing I would say, if the notion that economists use, which is that trade barriers create inflation, and that's the basic notion that you're talking about on their side, why is it that China has deflation and not inflation?
Why is it that the country with the most trade barriers It actually has no inflation at all.
And if you look like at Germany, they have some inflation, but it's less than a lot of the rest of Europe.
So it would suggest that there is not necessarily a relationship between tariffs and inflation.
And that problem is trade deficits and it's having all the bad effects that I said on our people and on the wealth of our country generally.
That is a problem that has to be resolved.
Connected but independent of that is the question of the geopolitical competition with China.
So I always start with you're either on one side or the other.
And I put people in like three categories, Tucker.
There are people that study the issue, and I'm going to go through the kind of litany in a minute.
But to set it up, there are people that study this issue and say China is an existential threat to America.
They are an adversary, and we have to make change.
And I'm in that group.
There's another group that studies it and says China is an existential threat.
They're an adversary.
But we don't need to do anything because it'll all kind of be resolved through this or that.
That's a group that was very popular in the 90s.
It doesn't really exist anymore.
I call it the unicorn group, right?
People who have kind of been proven wrong.
It's just you have to do something.
The third group are people that study it.
And conclude that there isn't a problem, China's not an adversary, and there's no threat.
That group is all invested in China, right?
So you can kind of divide the world when you think, when you're talking to someone, which of these three groups are you in?
If you're in the last group, then you're a basically compromised person, because no rational person can look at the data, look at the facts, and conclude that China's not a threat and an adversary.
Yeah, although there were a lot of differences and a lot of other things going on there.
And when you mention that, I always think of...
Neville Chamberlain, who before he was Prime Minister, was Chancellor of the Exchequer, and he approved the sale in the 30s, 180 or whatever it was, Rolls-Royce airplane engines to rearming Nazi Germany, which was just on his face,
ludicrous.
And his explanation was that trade, like religion, should know no boundaries.
So while rearming Nazi Germany was a threat, it was more important that we sell them things, even if they're going to use them to bomb us.
I always say, I don't know why, but when you mention England during that period, that's the first thing.
So, let's think of why I have this conclusion, and none of this is going to be...
I don't think to anyone who's listening, but one, China has the biggest army in the world and they're growing it.
They have the biggest navy in the world.
They are militarizing the South China Sea in a way we haven't seen since the Second World War.
They're claiming shoals, building, you know, 18 inches of cement and having places that you can militarize and land boats on.
They are...
Asserting territorial claims all around them.
I mean, it's not just Vietnam and Philippines, but it's also Japan, and you could just go all around them.
They are engaging in espionage on a scale we haven't seen.
The FBI says they start a new Chinese espionage case every few hours, and they have thousands of them.
They have suborned perjury from two sailors about...
Last year and a month ago, two army officers to, I'm not perjury, but espionage, to sell secrets to them.
They are building nuclear silos all over the place.
They have their diplomatic wolf warriors go around and do whatever they think is going to be disruptive of the United States.
They're building military bases around the world.
They have things like this thing that's on the news now and this, you know, shipping company at either end of the shipping facility at either end of the Panama Canal.
So, I mean, they're gathering data.
They're engaging in economic warfare with the United States in terms of stilling technology and technology transfer and all the kinds of other things of which we are aware.
They are funding the war in the Middle East.
They're funding the war in Europe, just without question.
It's their money.
They're selling all the fentanyl, at least the precursors of all the fentanyl that comes into the United States.
And it's not like the people that are selling the precursors for the fentanyl are an odd group.
Communist Party, because they don't have the problem at home.
So, if you sort of set aside the diplomatic, the military, the economic, you put all these things back to back.
And then you look at their own words, where they talk about change not seen in a hundred years, and prepare for war, and all these kinds of things.
It's pretty clear that their view is they should be number one in the world.
Their view is the world is better off with totalitarianism.
Politically, Marxism and economically, communism, right?
This is their scheme and that we're in their way.
This is their objective.
This centrality of China runs through their history for 2,000 years.
And we are a problem.
So for all of those reasons, you have to realize we have a real existential threat and we have to do something about it.
And the first thing you do is you stop transferring hundreds of billions of dollars of wealth to people that they're using to build technology and military systems to defeat you, right?
That's the first thing you do.
And we are doing that.
We are transferring...
We're transferring hundreds of billions of dollars in trade deficit.
We are transferring hundreds of billions of dollars in stolen technology.
We are transferring money through this fentanyl crisis that we have.
If you look at all of these things, you have to stop that, right?
It is like the first thing you do is you stop digging when you're in a hole.
What we need, I would propose, is not no economic relationship.
I'm not for decoupling, but I think we need strategic decoupling.
I think we need balanced trade in areas that benefit America.
I think we need independent technology going forward made with America and with America's allies.
And then I think we have to regulate ingoing and outgoing investments so that it's in the interest of the country.
So the first question I would say, how does China regulate investment in the United States, right?
They have a state body that says this is in the interest of China, therefore you can invest in the United States because you're going to get data or technology.
And inbound investment, if you try to invest over there, they've got people who sit there and say, is this in the interest of China or them?
And they just do it, is this in the interest of China?
So we really need, in terms of...
Inbound investment, we need to take CFIUS, this group, this group at the Treasury Department and expand their mandate and fill it through of heart.
The inbound has to be strengthened so that they're not buying into things where they can get data, which they can use to feed their AI, or technology, not just military technology, I would say any high technology,
and then outgoing, it should only be investments that are in the interest of the United States.
If you were to, this is obviously just broad strokes here, but if you were to radically reduce the amount of manufacturing that American companies outsource to China, could you take up that slack?
How long would it take to replace that manufacturing with manufacturing?
So, what has happened is we renegotiated USMCA and tightened it in a bunch of ways and really created the most pro-manufacturing, pro-America trade deal in history,
right?
For the first time, the president was one of President Trump's great accomplishments.
The first time anybody had ever renegotiated a big agreement, they were sort of thought of as eternal, like marriage.
Or religion or constitution or something.
We renegotiated it.
At the same time, we put tariffs on China, right?
Unrelated, but we put tariffs on China.
So what China was trying to do is figure out a way to get into the U.S. market without paying the tariffs.
Now, a logical way to do that would be to move stuff to Mexico.
And as part of that process, they are infiltrating the Mexican infrastructure.
And the numbers are quite large.
It's billions and billions of dollars of investment by China and this rhodium group and others who have studied it.
Say the number is probably six or seven.
The purpose of this really is to ultimately get to the U.S. market, but also to sort of infiltrate the system in Mexico.
And I would suggest it's very bad for the United States, and it's very bad for Mexico.
And ultimately, the president is going to have to deal with it, and I think he's aware of that.
This is a freight train coming down the road.
So if you take Chinese content and just, you know, substantially transform it, just, you know, paint it or something, and then bring it to the United States, that's very bad.
So you've seen increases in Chinese exports.
To Mexico, a 50% a year for a number of years.
And a lot of that, I think, is fine against the United States and is dislodging other sensible investments.
And the president of Mexico seems to understand that, at least to the extent you can in their system.
So, it's a big problem.
And a lot of it has not come on stream yet.
So it's huge auto investments.
It's a lot of things that they're doing that haven't even come on stream yet that are going to come down like a local load of down the highway.
And it's all bad, and we have to do something about it.
And the reality is probably that's going to be tariffs, and it's going to be some way that you separate.
Like U.S. companies and neutral countries, companies like the Japanese who are operating down there and abiding by the USMCA and this whole Chinese infiltration that's coming in.
Yeah, but I mean, to some extent, it's because they can influence you in ways personally.
So there's a lot of what's going on in this Belt and Road is going in there influencing local officials who then take on great amounts of debt, put in a Chinese infrastructure, it goes to hell.
So some of the advantage that China has is just pure old corruption, right?
I wouldn't invite someone like that to dinner at my house.
So, to-
So, one of President Trump's ideas, I don't know if it's been fully articulated, but it's very obvious from watching, is that we can reestablish some sort of economic relationship with Russia once this war is resolved, God willing.
Could that happen?
To what extent could that benefit the United States if it did?
They're small, you know, they have GDP smaller than Canada, and they're basically a...
You know, people would, you know, get into basically a gas station right there.
They're an energy producer and not much.
There was a time when they were also very much at the cutting edge of technology, but I think that's kind of waned.
And, you know, depending on, once again, this is sort of a little afeard from where I'm an actual expert.
Unlike everybody else, I actually identify when I am and when I'm not.
I find it's helpful to me, but not other people.
But I do believe that depending on how the war is resolved, then it will be resolved.
There's no question the wars are not eternal anymore than trade agreements should be.
But when that happens, I think you will see economic relations reestablished.
I'd be flabbergasted if you didn't.
The reality is that There will be demand.
There will be people that can sell.
There are things you can do.
But a lot of it is how it is resolved.
If it's resolved in a way that Europe and others view themselves as still more or less being at war, then you're going to have a very slow recovery economically.
If you view themselves as like we've turned a page and we're in a new decade, then my guess is you'll see people move more quickly.
Because not all of these are partisan questions, but in practical terms, what do you assess the chances of the Democrats, any Democrats, supporting Trump on this program?
We have John Lewis, who was obviously not president at all, but who I admire as like the last, he was then the last living civil rights person, someone who I greatly admire.
And actually, I actually brought my senior political staff to meet him.
And they were just, you know, awed by him.
And he talked for 45 minutes about the civil rights movement.
And we just sort of say, you are the last person that's going to be able to talk to the last person who did this.
But he made the statement, for example, he said, you know, I fought NAFTA with every bone of my body.
I fought it as hard as I could possibly fought, and I never thought we'd have an opportunity to correct it.
But now we are, and I'm supporting this.
So he was there, you know, Rich Neal, who was then the chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, and Nancy Pelosi was a supporter, but there were a lot of them, Rosa DeLauro, I mean, very hard-left people who realized what we were doing was for working people,
and that was their constituency.
So I think there is hope.
Debbie Dingell has spoken about this recently.
I think there is hope, but it requires sales.
It's not like you have to go up and actually do the retail work.
I spent a huge amount of time on the Hill when we were doing this, a huge amount of time.
Twice I addressed the caucus of Democrats in the House, the caucus, once with Rich Trumka, the head of the FLCIO, just he and I. And took questions from the Democrats.
I'm sure that no one else in probably any very many administrations from a different party has ever done that.
So it requires sort of doing the spade work.
But I really think it's worth it because this change economically is so important.
It has to be bipartisan.
It has to be acceptable.
I'm not saying...
Don't do it unilaterally, Mr. President, using existing law.
I'm not saying that because I'm not Pollyanna.
I think it would be very hard to pass something.
But you do want labor Democratic buy-in because that's how you make something permanent, is you have the smart people, the caring people, the ones who care about working people.
And there's lots of Democrats who do, lots of them.
Getting those people to buy in, I think, is really, really important.
Yeah, but the notion sort of is that, well, if the interest rates go down, you're going to have economic activity increase.
So it's not crazy, but it's sort of off-centered.
I mean, to me, long-term, it's fair to say, what will the markets do, right?
Will these companies become richer under this system?
American companies become richer under this system?
The metric for me is, did workers get richer?
That's the metric for me.
But if that happens, it should be reflected in the market.
So I think looking at a short term is very disruptive, very destructive, not right.
Looking at a long term makes some sense, but it's not my metric.
My metric after national defense, my metric is do most Americans do relatively better in real terms.
And if they did, the country is better off and the economy has done what it is supposed to do.
I actually, this is sort of in 1996 when Bob Dole, who I worked for, you'll remember, as chief of staff and he was chairman of the finance committee, I wrote a speech that sort of made this point that the purpose of an economic policy is to generate wealth for the midsection.
The richer, they'll take care of themselves, the poorer you have programs for, but you want to take, this is the purpose of it.
I got all the smart people with all this resentment in me wanting to have him make the speech, which he agreed was right.
He was a populist Midwestern guy.
And finally, I think when it was all over and we didn't really have a shout, at the end he just said, I just got to keep Lighthizer from grunting, so I'll give the speech.
And he ended up giving it.
Was he a good guy?
He was a good guy.
Bob Dole was a good guy.
You know, it's funny.
There's like...
There's kind of like different Bob Dole's when you live to be 97 or something.
You have different, you know, you have the young Bob Dole I didn't know and he went to war and got blown up and kind of gritted his teeth and fought back and he lived in the basement of his house so they could rent the upstairs, you know, so they could live.
And then you have this guy in the middle who was the guy I knew who was maybe the legislator.
Of that time, the number one.
You could make the case for a few other people, but you could make the case for him being the number one legislator in that midpoint in American history.
And then you have this older guy who got the Eisenhower Memorial done and got the World War II Memorial and did all these wonderful things in this different way.
So I had this guy in the middle, and he was a tough, hard, good, conservative guy.
And I obviously had an enormous amount of affection when I stayed close to him his whole life.
So it turns out that YouTube is suppressing this show.
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That's what they do.
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With everything that's going on in the world right now, all the change taking place in our economy and our politics, with the wars on the cusp of fighting right now, Google has decided you should have less information rather than more.
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It's immoral.
What can you do about it?
Well, we could whine about it.
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