Steve Sailer dissects BLM’s 2020 surge—linked to a 30% spike in black homicides post-George Floyd—and exposes Democratic elites’ focus on police brutality while ignoring intra-racial violence, citing Chicago’s record 91 murders in May 2020. He ties this to "Karen" demonization and DEI policies, arguing they scapegoat white voters while downplaying opioid deaths among working-class whites. Sailer also reveals how racial reclassification—like South Asians lobbying for minority status—distorts demographics, and warns that woke affirmative action loopholes (e.g., race-based essays) and Asian test-score surges threaten meritocracy. The episode ends with a caution: unchecked identity politics may backfire as data exposes failures, from air traffic control errors to South Africa’s post-apartheid collapse. [Automatically generated summary]
So you're saying you think that the Sacklers and the Mexican drug cartels targeted rural whites, Appalachian whites, for example, on purpose because they knew that nobody would care when they died?
The New York Times has put in a lot of effort in recent years explaining the racist, sexist slur of Karen as this anti-white woman slur to their millions of subscribers so that they know just the right time to use it and they make sure not to use it on any non-white Karens.
For 10 years, from 2013 into 2023, you basically...
Couldn't go see Steve Saylor give a speech anywhere.
You know, I was being signed up for conferences.
The last speech I gave in 2013 was an analysis of the Obama versus Romney exit polls.
Didn't seem all that controversial to me.
But for the next decade, every time...
I'd be invited to a conference, and about six weeks later, I'd get an email going, well, it turned out the SPLC, or Media Matters, went to the hotel and said that this is just deplorable, and you might find also that the local Antifa, the Black Bloc guys, were thinking about protesting and how that can turn into violence and so forth.
So they canceled their contract.
You know, I just kept writing, but all of a sudden the ice started to break up maybe last year.
And this year I've been traveling around the country and meeting people who've been reading me for years or just started reading me.
It's a lot of fun.
I appreciate it.
Black Line Below: Mass Shootings & Murders00:15:14
It's just funny, though, because, you know, in a world where there are some wackos and there are people who advocate violence, you would seem to be maybe the last person.
Who would scare people?
I mean, you're effectively an informal academic or social scientist.
Yeah, I'm kind of like Bill James, the baseball statistics analyst for the social sciences in the US. For three years now, I've been raising a stink about...
All right, what was the impact of Black Lives Matter on black lives?
And as far as I can tell, it's got Black Lives Matter during the two eras of triumph after Ferguson in 2015-16 and then the big one during the Floyd effect, the racial reckoning of the 2020s.
They've got an incremental 15,000 to 20,000 extra black lives.
Murdered through incremental homicides versus the baseline or just splattered on the pavement through increased traffic fatalities.
The vast majority of black shooting deaths is at the hands of other blacks.
For example, in 2020, there was just an enormous explosion in mass shootings with at least four.
Dead or wounded at black social events.
We talk about mass shootings a lot, but as the New York Times did a big study in 2016 and concluded that almost 75% of the mass shootings with at least four victims Wounded or killed take place in black-on-black events, typically Saturday night at the club or a funeral.
Some of them are organized crime, very strategic, like in the TV show The Wire, but a lot is just one guy disses another guy and people pull out guns and start shooting.
Yet, that's of very little interest to the Democratic establishment, the need for what I call point-of-use gun control.
The Democrats tend to obsess over the need for point-of-sale gun control to keep rednecks out in the country from legally buying rifles at Walmart.
And in truth, what we've seen, it's like in the 1990s into the 2010s in New York City, where people like Giuliani, Bloomberg, and Braddon did a great job of bringing down the murder rate.
What really works is point-of-use gun control.
You discourage lowlifes from packing their illegal handguns when they go out because they're more worried about the cops and getting...
Caught carrying an illegal piece.
So they leave it up in their grandmother's attic, stuffed away.
And the fewer people who are carrying guns on the streets in New York City, the less often they pull them out and start shooting.
And you get this virtuous cycle.
But, you know, nobody understands that.
So during the Great Awakening of the last decade, and especially during...
What used to be called the racial reckoning before the whole George Floyd thing has pretty much gotten memory hold lately.
Just huge increases in the black deaths by murder and by car crash.
I mean, the all-time most murderous day in the storied history of Chicago's That murder narrative, you know, going back, blowing away the St. Valentine's Day massacre by Al Capone and all that was May 31st, 2020, six days after George Floyd's death when 18 Chicagoans were murdered that day.
Why?
Pretty much because the cops went down to the Magnificent Mile to keep it from being torched and looted and the word quickly got around that you can do anything you want in the neighborhood and nobody's gonna gonna notice and so all sorts of vengeance was just taken on you know On random people out there for personal reasons.
And then it just went on and on for several more years.
Fortunately, last year or so, the murder rate started finally to come down.
The Center for Disease Control collects data weekly on all the deaths in the United States.
You can ask for any one particular thing.
So, this is weeks from 2018 into 2023. The blue line indicates the beginning of COVID lockdowns.
The black line is George Floyd's death.
The red line is the number of...
African-Americans who died by homicide that week.
So it's bouncing around.
It has some seasonality in 2018, 2019. George Floyd dies and suddenly, boom, it goes to this enormous peak and then just slowly fades over the next four years into 2023. But it's immediate.
Probably by the Friday after he died on Memorial Day on Monday.
It just, you know, there was just a giant cultural revolution and basically people lost fear of the cops because everybody, the establishment, the media, the politicians were telling America that we have too much policing.
And too much law and order.
And so we got a lot more murder.
It's kind of ironic because the name of the movement was Black Lives Matter and it wound up getting an enormous number of black lives murdered incremental versus what you see in 2019. Boy, that's not even a close call.
Yeah, this is one of the biggest findings in the American social sciences probably since...
Angus Deedon and Case's finding in 2015 of deaths of despair and how the white working class's life expectancy was dropping in the early 21st century.
But the big part of it is that it also applies to motor vehicle accident deaths.
So you can see this is a pretty consistent level.
African Americans have traditionally been not bad drivers.
They don't have the kind of problem with driving traditionally the way they had with homicide.
But boom, a new plateau that's endured ever since.
And to put this in a longer-term historical perspective, let me...
We find graphs of the CDC data monthly going back to 1999 through 2021. These are homicide deaths as opposed to murders perpetrated.
So these are the races of victims and blacks, Hispanics, whites in blue.
Well, that is quite a spike.
You can see 9-11 there.
That's what it is.
3,000 Americans die by homicide at the hands of Al-Qaeda.
Okay.
And then most years, you've got more people get murdered in summer than in winter.
They're out partying and so forth.
But it's pretty consistent.
You can see an increase over here in...
The Ferguson effect after Black Lives Matter emerges in 2014, which was a pretty decent year, and then all of a sudden murders go up dramatically in 2015-16.
That helps get Trump elected.
You might remember how Black Lives Matter terrorists were assassinating Cops in Dallas and Baton Rouge and so forth, although that's really been memory hold.
Anyway, Jeff Sessions came in, kind of told the police departments, no, you know, we're not going to persecute you for doing your jobs.
All right.
Then Trump got rid of Sessions.
maybe murder started going up a little more.
And then comes 2020 and the George Floyd racial reckoning.
It's just an enormous increase compared to anything else in the 21st century.
Now, one reason we don't hear about this is because these graphs are kind of embarrassing because the black line of homicide death rate is so much higher than the light brown Hispanic line there.
Hispanics actually in the 21st century have done a pretty good job of lowering their rate of being murdered.
And finally, though, when the racial reckoning came along, it got worse again.
So we're losing a bunch of that progress.
The blue line is the white line down there.
It's an order of magnitude below the black line.
And it's considered really bad taste to notice differences in the homicide rate.
The other thing that I point out is motor vehicle deaths.
Motor vehicle deaths per capita, this isn't per mile driven, weren't too bad.
They didn't have big racial differences in the past.
The whites and the blue line often had the worst.
Blacks weren't bad.
Hispanics weren't good.
But then after 2008, Hispanics actually got better.
And the brown-Hispanic line is doing pretty good until the racial reckoning.
But you can see the black line just went through the roof again compared to the rest of the 21st century.
What's happened is during the Great Awakening, during the era of Black Lives Matter, what we see is that deaths, two different kinds of deaths, homicides and car crashes, what I call deaths of exuberance in contrast to Case and Deedon's deaths of despair, seem to have gotten highly correlated.
When Black Lives Matter is winning, People, especially black Americans, die more deaths of exuberance until Black Lives Matter goes out of fashion again and the cops are allowed to pull over bad drivers and check for illegal handguns.
So, does anybody know that?
No, it's hardly caught on at all.
I mean, part of the problem is, because I discovered in 2021, then if you're a social scientist, you want to write a paper for an academic journal, it's kind of like either, well, either I cite Steve Saylor, but I might get canceled for citing this horrible crime thinker, or I don't cite him and then his followers on Twitter all get real mad at me for not citing.
Here's my view.
Just go ahead.
Don't cite me.
Just get the word out there.
It's more important that America know about how badly it's screwed up, how many tens of thousands of incremental Americans have died because America's elites get infatuated with Black Lives Matter now and then, than it is for me to get publicity about it.
There were a lot of motives for Black Lives Matter.
One was that America had gotten better After the 1990s, after the crack wars, at policing, that the drugs that were driving crime were not particularly marketed to inner-city blacks, the opioids, the oxycodone, and so forth.
Even when the Mexican cartels started selling Black tar heroin.
They also focused like the Sackler family on like, you know, who are a bunch of people?
If they drop dead, nobody's going to care.
And that's like, eh, white people in small towns in Kentucky, that kind of stuff.
It's the theory of a good reporter named Sam Quinones, who's written a couple books on the evolution of the drug trade in this century, that the Mexican cartels had a strategy that No, we don't want to sell to particularly shooty people near media capitals.
We'll sell to people who will overdose and quiet in small towns in the Ohio River Valley that nobody's going to care much about.
So, I mean, nobody paid any attention to this increase in the white working class death rate until just...
Fortuitously, in 2015, Angus Deeden was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics, and then a couple weeks later, he and his wife published this important paper saying, you know, if you look at the CDC data, life expectancy for white working class people without...
You know, without college degrees has been dropping in the 21st century and it's not supposed to happen.
Well, that's kind of, if I can just ask you to pause this, I think you're right, but it's sort of interesting if you think about it.
There are no organizations dedicated to the welfare of rural whites, but there are a lot of organizations dedicated to the welfare of a million other groups that are much smaller in number.
So why aren't there any organizations dedicated to that?
A few people have tried to set up organizations that speak for white people the way that Al Sharpton speaks for black people and countless Other organizations speak for Jewish people or Latinos and so forth and are highly respectable and are constantly quoted in the newspaper.
A bright, very gentlemanly fellow named Jared Taylor tried to do this for the last 30 years.
He's still banned on Twitter at this point.
America has a phobia about anybody speaking up for the emerging white minority.
The conventional wisdom is that whites are rapidly being turned into a minority, and that's a good thing.
But we're not going to ever treat whites like the minority that they're becoming in multiple states across the country.
We're going to treat them as the all-powerful, omnipotent legacy majority who can be blamed for everything from now on.
Nobody lied so much as they just wonder, why are you interested in this?
What kind of sinister reason do you have for worrying about The hundred million working-class white people in the country who are generating these new problems and dropping dead from them and putting out the alarm about it is just considered some sort of white supremacist,
white nationalist dog whistle.
You know, will lead to slavery and the Holocaust and all sorts of imaginings.
And, you know, the other half of the white population wasn't suffering.
You know, they weren't...
You know, the kind of people who don't have a bad back because they don't lift heavy things on the job, you know, they're not hooked on oxycodone or when prescriptions got tightened up, they didn't go over to Mexican heroin and then to fentanyl and so forth.
I mean, I get, you know, everyone has preferences.
A lot of people in Washington, New York and LA don't like the voting patterns of the population you're describing, but they are human beings and Americans and if they're going extinct or they're dying in huge numbers in any case, to ignore that or downplay it is evil, isn't it?
To my view, they are our fellow American citizens.
As are African Americans.
And so the fact that Black Lives Matter in this ironic, complete self-destructiveness...
Brought about just historic changes in the number of Black lives dying in kind of the opposite of the white working class deaths of exuberance that you could see it in the Ferguson effect in 2015-16 and now in the huge Floyd effect of the 2020s.
I mean, we're talking something like an incremental 15 to 20,000 more Blacks.
Have died in car crashes and murders than if the baseline of a few years ago had been maintained.
And that's just enormous.
That's easily the black death total in Vietnam, maybe Vietnam and Korea put together.
And people should be talking about that too because African Americans are our fellow American citizens and we ought to be like...
Keeping an eye on them and not refraining from noticing just because it's embarrassing.
Who's it embarrassing to?
The elites, the propounders of the conventional wisdom.
The respectable prestige press, academia, the Democratic Party, and so forth.
They promoted all of this stuff.
They took Black Lives Matter at face value and did very little investigation.
I mean, basically, you weren't anymore allowed to ask the question like, okay, blacks...
Men tend to get shot by the police about two to three times as often as white men per capita.
That's a big difference, but it's nowhere near as big a difference as blacks tend to get shot by each other about ten times as much as whites get shot by each other and probably blacks.
Get shot by non-police whites, you know, dozens of times less often than they're shot by other blacks.
You know, young black men in this country have an enormous homicide problem, a gun homicide problem.
I looked up for For males age 15 to 34, their death by gun homicide in 2022. And young black men died about 50, not 15, but 50 times more per capita by gunfire than young Asian men, 24 times more than young white men, and 6 times more than Hispanics.
Hispanics are fairly comparable in poverty rate and education and so forth.
But they don't have anywhere near the kind of gun problem that African Americans have developed.
Young African Americans and telling them, you know, if you guys could not get your homicide rate down to the Hispanic level, if you could get it down halfway from where it is now to the Hispanic level, this country would be so much better off and race relations would be so much better.
You know, you're not supposed to put crime statistics like that in the newspaper.
It's just considered, you know, racist to mention all these government statistics.
That it goes back to the grand strategy of the Democratic Party, which is enthusiastically assisted by other forms of the establishment, such as the prestige press.
Academia, much of the corporate world as well.
The Democrats have realized over the last few decades that America is becoming more diverse.
Immigration is driving diversity, patterns of interracial marriage, more people who have some claim to be non-white.
Also, there's the constant generation of new identities, such as in the last decade, transgenderism.
So, as America becomes more diverse, the Democratic Party can profit by being the party of diversity, the party of the diverse, the party of people from the...
Fringes of American society, the party of people that the Democrats would call the marginalized, from the margins of American society.
So, you're talking about immigrants, you're talking about black church ladies, transgenders, Jews, Muslims, etc., etc.
Now, the one problem with all this is That while it works pretty well on paper and the Democrats have managed to win the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections, the problem is keeping this coalition of the fringes of the marginalized from turning on each other, from becoming a circular firing squad.
Do the Asian immigrants have much in common with Hispanic immigrants?
Nah, not really.
It can go on and on.
It's inherent in the Democrats' grand strategy to be the party of diversity, the party of the fringes of American society.
So how can they unite their coalition of the margins?
And the one strategy the Democrats have come up with is basically to foster a racist Animus against core Americans,
people who basically are demographically somewhat like George Washington, Ben Franklin, John Adams, you know, that are white, that are men, that are straight, maybe they own homes, maybe they're married, they have kids.
And to make them the bad guys in the American narrative.
And that's the only thing the Democrats and their colleagues in academia, etc., can think of to hold together this diverse coalition.
So we've seen this enormous increase in just racist bigotry being expressed in You know, the pages of the New York Times in this century, things that in the past would have been considered rather in poor taste and extremist.
So, the New York Times has put in a lot of effort in recent years explaining the racist, sexist slur of Karen as this anti-white woman racist.
Slur to their millions of subscribers so that they know just the right time to use it and they make sure not to use it on any non-white Karens and so forth.
And yeah, the New York Times is not the failing New York Times anymore.
They've done a very good job of identifying people who will pay to subscribe to have their worldview vindicated over and over again.
And kind of...
For the times to bury inconvenient facts that don't support their view of the world, you know, in the 27th paragraph or something like that.
So yeah, you recently had on Jeremy Carl, he's got a new book, The Unprotected Class, that documents a great length, just this trend toward ever more anti-white racism in The respectable press and media and the democratic speeches and so forth.
And, you know, it's finally starting to backfire on Democrats.
People are starting to notice just how much awful stuff is said about kind of the core Americans that tend to vote Republican.
I don't know.
I mean, have you been seeing this just over the last 10 years, just huge increases and putting down white people?
It's one of the defining facts of American society, and it's always perpetrated by people who are simultaneously, in the same sentence, giving you a lecture about racism.
I mean, white Americans go out of their way to just go, oh, yes, I hear what you're saying about the evils of whiteness.
And my children are children of whiteness and they have oppressed the world.
And I've actually thought about that and while that may sound like just...
Lowbrow racist bigotry on your part.
It actually has a really impressive intellectual heritage going back to the Frankfurt School and Gramsci and updated by, you know, in the critical race theory by Marcuse and people will go on and on about You know, what you're saying isn't as moronic as it sounds and hate-filled bigotry.
It's actually, you're getting this and it all goes back to Marxism or Foucault or something like that.
So, yeah, Republicans, whites have been reluctant to call out.
The tendency that's been growing, especially in the Black Lives Matter era of the last decade, to just say the most bigoted things, they want to blame it on something old like Marxism.
This isn't what African Americans want to say.
You know, my son's friends on his high school football team, they're not...
They're not bigoted racists.
And the truth is, yeah, a lot of them aren't.
I mean, a lot of this stuff is coming out of colleges and so forth.
It's kind of soft degree majors and so on.
But, you know, taking claims to have some deep intellectual heritage is naive.
It's just people with...
Soft majors who got DEI sinecures and so forth and corporations and colleges, you know, just expressing their basic prejudices, their basic bigotry.
And, you know, we should be laughing at it.
We shouldn't be taking it that seriously.
We should be satirizing it and scorning it and making jokes about it.
You may have come to the obvious conclusion that the real debate is not between Republican and Democrat or Socialist and Capitalist, right, left.
The real battle is between people who are lying on purpose and people who are trying to tell you the truth.
It's between good and evil.
It's between honesty and falsehood.
And we hope we are on the former side.
That's why we created this network, the Tucker Carlson Network.
And we invite you to subscribe to it.
Go to tuckercarlson.com slash podcast.
Our entire archive is there.
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You will not regret it.
So can I ask, I think a lot of people assume that when whites Obviously founded the country, become a minority in the country their ancestors founded, that it'll stop.
And then that was a big story at the time and helped lead to the civil rights era of the 1960s.
And then it sort of faded from the newspapers.
The New York Times mentioned Emmett Till's name twice in 1980. In 2000, they were up to mentioning him four times.
By, I think, 2018, they were mentioning him something like one and a half times a week.
About as often as Chief Justice John Roberts.
Not really!
In the New York Times.
It just became this huge breaking news story.
And they, you know, I joke that they had a...
You know, had a jet at LaGuardia fueled up, always ready to fly to anywhere to report on the latest Emmett Till news.
All right, this kind of antiquarianism is increasing because, I mean, the truth for liberals is the liberals have been pretty much in charge of most things involving race since the 1960s.
They haven't really accomplished that much so they kind of want to hide their record and focus people on pre-civil rights antiquities such as Emmett Till or you constantly hear these days about FDR's redlining of FHA loans in 1938 as the reason that black neighborhoods tend to have lower Property values than
Why No One Talks About Actual Improvements00:02:28
What then ends up is you end up getting a long lecture about how the construction of a freeway in 1958 destroyed the booming Black Wall Street of Birmingham or whatever and all sorts of things like that.
And other places, the great liberal cities like San Francisco and Madison, Wisconsin, tend to have bigger...
Gaps, not just because they have a lot of smart white people living there, but they do a lousier job in San Francisco of educating blacks because, you know, it's such a liberal, progressive environment that they do a poor job of doing things like having well-disciplined schools and focusing on basics and so forth.
So, yeah, there's a general, I mean, there's been a general trend toward Blacks who have some choices in life, who are looking to get ahead, looking to do good things for their kids, to be moving to the South, to Texas, to red states, and so forth, where, you know, they can, and away from the...
Highly liberal parts of the country.
It's not a panacea, but yeah, it does some good at the margin.
In other words, if the graphs that you showed the four years after the Floyd verdict or Floyd death, if you extended those, if you doubled them, what would they look like?
We're hopefully past the worst of the racial reckoning.
What I've noticed in the newspapers was that the front section around a few months before the 2022 election seemed to get the word from...
Maybe the Biden White House that like, you know, this whole George Floyd racial reckoning thing, that's not going to be a big vote winner in the 2022 midterms, especially in the New York City area.
So let's go easy on it.
Let's not talk about it all the time.
Maybe it wasn't such a good idea.
And then it just sort of disappeared from the serious...
News part of the paper.
In the cultural section in the back, they never got the memo, so there's constantly discussions about how, okay, in a great leap forward for equity at the Art Institute of Chicago, they fired all the nice white lady docents who work for free giving tours of the great artwork so they can hire people of color.
And pay them to work there and stuff like that.
And you kept hearing all those kind of stories going on much longer about the wonders of the racial reckoning because they hadn't gotten the message.
But yeah, probably the Biden administration engaging in benign neglect about like, yeah, let's not persecute police departments quite as hard as we were.
It's probably done some good about getting the cops out of the donut shop and actually pulling over, you know, people driving 100 miles an hour.
And so, yeah, that's made some progress, but it took the Hispanics a while longer to get the word that the cops weren't being proactive, and so their car crash and murder rates have gone way up.
Even if things are getting better now, they're going to take a number of years to get back to where we were in 2019, much less where we were before Ferguson in 2014. The death rate is still up in these deaths of exuberance like 30 to 40% over 2014. And way up over the non-black average.
Has there ever been a serious effort, made in good faith, to figure out why rates of violence in black areas are so much higher, which they are and have always been, but why?
You know, my late father-in-law was the tuba player for the Chicago Lyric Opera, so he ended up buying a farm 63 miles out of town and then commuting to work to play the tuba in the opera house downtown.
Yeah, it was kind of a disaster for them.
And, you know, there's tens of millions of Americans who are still alive who can tell these stories of what actually happened.
The media is not that interested in hearing them.
The media wants to portray these people as the bad guys who, because of their bigotry and not because of all the felonies against their children, moved out to the suburbs.
Interestingly, right across the street from where my...
Where our in-laws lived is the municipality of Oak Park, Illinois, a suburb that Ernest Hemingway supposedly said was the land of broad lawns and narrow mines.
But it's really nice, has all this great Frank Lloyd Wright architecture.
They actually did something really intelligent.
And really illegal in the 1970s, which was they put a racial quota on real estate agents.
It was called the Black a Block Club and said, no, you can't make a huge fast windfall by terrifying everybody into selling right now because the whole block is going to tip black.
We're going to do this in an orderly fashion and we're going to use a racial quota.
And it worked.
It kept Oak Park from going all black the way the Austin neighborhood next door has gone.
And Austin just is bleak.
It's kind of post-apocalyptic looking now.
And Oak Park looks kind of like this gay utopia for older gay couples who like fixing up beautiful Frank Lloyd Wright houses.
You know, if you read the press, yeah, there's been huge condemnation of all the...
White families that fled crime as that they're engaging in white flight and if their grandchildren move back to the city because the crime has come down a little, then they're engaging in the great crime of gentrification.
You know, it's kind of you can't win, you know, either way you lose.
There's all sorts of talk.
You know, Mayor Pete in the transportation department's always denouncing racist roads, that building highways was destroying black neighborhoods and so forth.
You know, we've rewritten the past over and over again.
So we don't learn anything from it because we just...
We just specify a few things that fit this narrative that everybody has now.
So, you know, we'll see.
I mean, the obvious goal is what they call equity.
And the term equity is one of those words.
It's not a secret what the DEI people want when they specify equity.
What they're talking about when they're talking about equity and generational wealth and so forth is they want your equity in your home and they want to tax it away and take it as reparations and spend it on themselves.
And that's kind of the bottom line.
Carried out.
I don't know.
We've seen reparation programs start to put out checks in super-liberal places like Evanston, Illinois.
Even in California, the idea of handing out huge checks to black people for the horrors of living in California didn't go that well.
Well, I mean, one start has been to reopen ancient history What do you call it when the government condemns your property and sells it and buys it for what it thinks it's worth?
So if you're black and you happen to have a family legend that we used to own this really nice piece of property, but then it got eminently domain to make into a park...
That was racist and we should get that property back.
So the descendants of a black family in Manhattan Beach recently who Manhattan Beach had condemned their property and a few other and some white neighbors of theirs to build a park.
And they recently got the city council to declare that that was racist in 1928 and that if it wasn't for this, they no doubt would have held on to the property through the depression, through everything that's happened ever since.
They would have scrimped and saved to hold on to that land next to the beach, which is now worth $20 million.
So they got a check for $20 million.
For that.
You'll see, you know, this is a general trend that's speeding up as plaintiff's attorneys are looking for these old cases.
And, you know, it's not like they can relitigate the case because there's nobody alive that remembers, that can testify or anything like that.
So, there'll be lots of attempts like that to, you know, basically hand out large amounts of money.
And maybe it won't be called reparations, but you'll see this.
But we both grew up in a country where, you know, it was white majority, black minority.
And with some, we're from California, both of us.
So there was always a Hispanic component.
But I think most Americans sort of thought of it as a white country with a black minority.
A mistreated black minority.
In some cases, that was true.
But that's not the country that we're in right now.
now and it definitely is not the country we're going to be in in 10 years, which is going to have a Hispanic majority, a white minority, and then a much, much, much smaller black minority.
So I just wonder if the Hispanic majority is going to be that interested in Emmett Till.
I mean, that's, yeah, that's definitely a possibility.
And the...
The establishment is working hard on that to inculcate in the public schools that Emmett Till was the most important figure of the 20th century.
They're working very hard to keep together the democratic coalition of the fringes by pointing at These horrible white men who are the enemy and who also have all the generational wealth and keep your eye on the prize.
It's white people's home equity, basically, in stocks.
Baby boomers are dying.
They want to leave their property to their kids.
This is a vast turnover of wealth.
We need to get our hands on some of this.
Another question might be, you know, how big is the African immigration going to be?
If you look at the border, there's all sorts of people showing up from Mauritania, from all sorts of places.
You know, in recent years, all over the world, the fertility rates are plummeting.
Except they're still way above reproduction rate in most of Africa.
And people know how to get out of Africa now.
You get a smartphone, it gives you all the instructions and so forth.
So, you know, why not move somewhere nicer?
And, you know, so the country could well be, you know, I mean, Europe's Getting much more African and America is too at this point.
The descendants of American slaves are losing out on their affirmative action and so forth.
Twenty years ago, two Harvard African American Studies professors pointed out that A huge fraction of the affirmative action spots at Harvard seem to be reserved either for foreign elites whose parents are,
you know, foreign minister of Ghana or something like that, or have one white parent, or like in the case of the Obama family, it's now a three-generation Harvard family, both.
Privileges.
And, you know, not many positions at Harvard go to descendants of American slaves, the way, you know, Michelle Obama is clearly a, you know, highly legitimate descendant of American slaves.
And Bernach, man, not at all.
But, yeah, that's, we're going to, we'll see that.
I mean, American corporations, they want, if they have to meet DEI quotas.
Yeah, I mean, that's a kind overstatement, but it's more like in 2000, I became the most outspoken critic of the new GOP orthodoxy as promulgated by Karl Rove, George W. Bush's Svengali.
And Rove's theory was...
That what we need, what the Republicans need, is to push through amnesty and much easier immigration.
And that's what the Latino voters or future Latino voters will love us for that, for bringing in fellow Latinos.
And then they'll all switch to voting.
Republican, especially for the Bush family, which, you know, Jeb's son, George P. Bush, is half Mexican.
And so there's a future as the United States and Mexico demographically merge, the Bush dynasty of wasps and Mexicans will carry on as the natural ruling class of a...
of increasingly mestizo North America.
And that wasn't too implausible, but I kept asking questions like, do Latinos really care?
And that much about immigration policy.
Are you sure they really want all their cousins from back home to be moving in with them?
The one close Latino state is Florida.
And do the Cubans in Florida really care about Mexicans?
An awful lot of Latinos are in California, and that's never going to go Republic again.
And the others are in Texas in large numbers.
And if that goes, if that's up for play, then the Republican Party is in really big trouble.
So wouldn't it make more sense looking at the Electoral College map to go, well, look, there's all these Great Lakes states, the Rust Belt, and...
One of the things you see there is that the white working class isn't anywhere near as Republican as they are in the South, and they're actually really close in the Electoral College, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania.
So why not do things for the white working class in the North, such as limiting immigration so that they can continue to be paid pretty well?
And focus on them.
And the Republican establishment kept going on with the Hispanic plan.
That was the big 2013 audit that convinced Marco Rubio that we need amnesty and so forth.
But I kept saying, eh, you know, the way you went in the Electoral College is these Rust Belt states around the Great Lakes.
I mean, for his loyalty to the Bush dynasty, I really think George P. Bush played a huge role in the Bush family's thinking.
That because Jeb had married into a Mexican family, that this gave the Bushes out of all the...
Wasp dynasties in the United States the greatest chance to exploit the immigration wave from Latin America and to be the natural rulers of a Mexicanized population.
George H.W. Bush had 10-year-old George P. Bush read the Declaration of Independence at the 1988 Republican Convention, which was a big deal because the Democratic candidate had been unenthusiastic about the Pledge of Allegiance and so forth.
George H.W. was putting his, what he called his little brown one up there on national television.
I mean, people came along like Nate Silver, who just...
We're so much more interested in predicting elections and worked so much harder at it that I was like, I don't have that gambling instinct that Nate does.
I'm going to retire from making predictions.
I don't see myself as a great forecaster of the future.
What I try to be is a historian of the present and notice things that are happening right now.
In Texas, it definitely seemed like the racial reckoning of 2020 when the Democrats went basically nuts over Blacks, alienated quite a few Texas Latino Democrats.
I mean, what Trump has done is he's taken the appeal of the Republican Party downscale compared to, say, Mitt Romney.
Did a pretty good job of holding on to suburban upper middle class, the frequent flyer population, corporate executives and things like that.
They feel one with him.
You know, Trump is picking up working class people of all races.
That's good, but, you know, it also is kind of taking the Republican Party downscale intellectually.
You know, you're getting more dumb conspiracy theories out of Republicans, etc.
You know, can the Republicans keep some competent higher brow people around?
You know, that's another question.
What do you think?
I mean, a big question is, how much is this totally a...
Trump's personality.
I mean, you know, 2020, 2024, it looked like Ron DeSantis had, like, studied Trump and said, okay, Trump's got some interesting new ideas, some post-Romney ideas, and I'm the competent, well-educated guy who reads all the fine print, and I can implement some of these.
That didn't seem like a bad pitch, but just didn't go over at all.
As soon as the Democrats started arresting Trump for all sorts of charges, then that helped solve the Democratic nightmare that the Republicans were going to nominate.
A competent 40-something to run against their octogenary incumbent.
So now we're stuck with a rerun of 2020. So you think that's what it was?
It seemed like that blunted DeSantis and basically Republicans went back to Trump and went like, well, if the Democrats are going to do that, then we're going to stand by Trump.
Arresting a major candidate is un-American.
It's totally shameful in the United States history.
The Democrats didn't get in the way and go like, oh, let's not do that.
They let local politicians, you know, kind of run amok like this New York case.
And so they got the nominee they wanted, Donald Trump.
But now they're real worried that they're going to get the president.
I mean, it's a slogan that I took from George Orwell, who said that to see what's in front of one's nose takes a constant effort.
And I'm trying to make it easier for people to notice the realities that they see around them and to understand that What they see with their own lying eyes in their daily life is also actually validated by the best of the social sciences.
And that there aren't these two different realms of existence, this kind of...
Tawdry, sublunary one where we make decisions about what neighborhoods our family should live in and what are good schools for the kids.
Yeah, the world of data that proves that all those things you notice in your daily life can't possibly be true because then that would be a stereotype.
And my view is, no, it's all connected.
There's just one reality out there.
It goes from your personal anecdotes to what people might dismiss as anecdata to the data.
But why is it, I mean, we don't need to get into COVID, but I just noticed from the very beginning, I never, you know, do you know anyone who died of COVID? Do you know anyone?
Like, actually, no one.
Have you had dinner with anyone who later died of COVID? Do you know anyone who was injured by the facts?
I don't think I've ever met a single person who didn't have the same answer I did.
Whether that's reality or not, I still don't know.
But I do know there's been such an effort to tell me that I'm crazy for noticing that.
Yeah, one thing I used to do was go through the list of, on Wikipedia, prominent people who have died of COVID. And the thing I noticed about it was that They were almost all people who were no longer in their primes.
That, oh, like I saw, like, oh, baseball pitcher, Hall of Famer Tom Seaver has died at age 74 of COVID. And then I looked up a little more about him and was like, well, you know.
He probably would have had another good couple decades going to old-timers, games, and stuff like that.
But then it turned out that he dropped out of public life the year before because he had dementia.
Just general, he didn't have a good life ahead of him.
I think that's one of the things that was going on was that COVID was really taking a toll among people who had passed their primes and were toward the last decade of their lives and weren't no longer in the public eye.
So that sort of helps explain the thesis that, yeah, there's a lot of COVID deaths.
The antithesis that, like, you know, it's not like anybody I was, like, met and I knew at work dropped dead of COVID. And then you get the synthesis of, like, oh, yeah, it mostly...
Killed off people who were probably close to retirement, retired in ill health from other things and so on.
I think what's interesting is the point of social science, to example, there was a point, was to bring the principles of science, the scientific method to bear on the world just right around us and to make it clear what we were actually seeing, I think.
But it seems like its use at least over the past several years has been to do the opposite, which is to obscure what we're actually seeing, living, experiencing, and tell us a story that's not true.
The issue is that so much data has piled up that we can now answer quite a few.
Questions that were beyond our capability beforehand.
And the answers we keep getting are generally politically incorrect ones that were anticipated by the bad people, the Charles Murrays and James Q. Wilsons in the 20th century.
So, for example, we have an enormous amount of data from DNA that Tells us about our racial ancestry.
And what have we discovered in that in this century?
Did the conventional wisdom that race does not biologically exist be proven?
No, of course not.
You can call up Ancestry.com or 23andMe and they'll tell you your race to three digits.
You know, if you're Jewish, they'll tell you you're 49.8% Ashkenazi.
Other data is piling up.
There's a Harvard economist named Raj Chetty who's done phenomenal work talking government bureaucracies into letting him work with totally confidential data like Like the tax returns of everybody in the country.
And so he can do studies that nobody had ever had the chutzpah to dream before that they never get the hands on the data.
So for example, he tracked 21 million Americans across 30 years of their lives.
He looked at how much money their parents made in the 1990s.
And then he looked at things like were they in jail on census day, April 1st, 2010, when they were about 30 years old.
And so then he could plot out what are the odds of A man being in jail based on how poor or rich his parents were.
And not surprisingly, poor guys who grew up poor go to jail a lot more.
But he could also answer using data from the Census Bureau what the race was of all 21 million of his people.
And he discovered, yeah, in general, blacks who had the exact same income as whites growing up as kids in the 90s.
In 2010, we're in jail three to ten times more often than whites who were their exact peers in terms of family income.
And this is like, wow, I never expected somebody to be able to come up with that.
And it goes, yeah.
So when people wonder why are blacks in jail more often, is it poverty?
And poverty plays a role, but...
Even without poverty, you take it all away.
At the highest level, blacks, at the highest percentile, blacks go to jail about 10 times as often as the richest whites.
So we're able to answer all sorts of social science questions these days, but nobody likes the answers they're getting.
What happened at a ceremony that Bill Clinton put on in the Presidential Rose Garden in 2000 for the Human Genome Project, they just sort of made progress.
Decoding a single genome, which was mostly that of entrepreneur Craig Venter, who'd helped out enormously.
And Craig got up and made a speech that was exactly what the zeitgeist wanted to hear.
He said, we've looked at the human genome, or his human genome, and we discovered...
The one thing you can't see in it is race.
There's no difference whatsoever genetically between different genomes in terms of racial ancestry.
Well, then within three, four, five years, the evidence was piling up.
It was like, no, actually, you can tell exactly what the ancestry of people is.
It became a sizable business very quickly.
But as far as I can tell, A huge fraction of the population remembers hearing that the science has proven that race doesn't exist genetically and they've never rethought it since that 2000 speech by Venter standing next to Bill Clinton.
So people want to believe some things.
They want to believe that the science has proven all of this anti-racist dogmas that they get told.
And they just sort of ignore that, no, it's actually moving in the other direction.
It's time that we think realistically about what the data is telling us.
And personally, I don't think it's the end of the world by any means.
And I think we can all get along pretty well knowing the realities, but a lot of people are just terrified of them and basically want to lie about it.
I mean, the way that previous civilizations held together in the face of knowledge of genetic and racial differences, which are obviously real, but they weren't always at war with themselves.
And one of the ways they did that was by believing in a religious doctrine that said God created everybody, therefore, despite whatever differences we have, we are all of equal value.
Without that overlay, which we no longer have, how do you keep a society together in the face of these realities?
Maybe over the last year is people just objecting to it and pushing back and laughing at the conventional wisdom and scoffing at it and saying, you know, you guys are just making this up.
It's not true.
You're just saying it so you can get DEI money and easy sinecure jobs.
But it's also happening at the government level, the census and so forth.
So the Biden administration just recently announced that they're allowing...
Middle Easterners and North Africans to have their own racial category, M-E-N-A, so that they don't have the unprofitable, ignominious fate of having to check white or Caucasian.
And this has a long tradition in the United States.
If you go back to in the 1970s, South Asians were Classified as white.
But that really annoyed the South Asian businessmen because East Asian businessmen were getting all sorts of low interest loans from the SBA as a minority.
They were getting contracting preferences on government deals.
And the South Asian said, well, hey, we just got off the airplane.
We should be getting those deals, too.
And so...
The South Asian organizations got themselves declared to be Asian and grouped in with the Orientals and formed the new Asian group so they could get these good deals from the government that white people are not entitled to.
And so that was an early example of flight from white.
You see it with the Hispanics increasingly.
Originally, when the Hispanic Category was created.
It was set up so Hispanics could get good deals from the government and get good affirmative action benefits, but without actually declaring themselves to be racially white because a lot of them took racist pride in their blue-blooded Spanish heritage and so forth.
So they could set up a separate ethnicity for Hispanics so you could get all the affirmative action benefits without actually admitting your shame of being white.
But enough time has gone by that, you know, only your, you know, your Fuentes types anymore are like really publicly white racist from Latin America.
And now it's...
More prestigious to declare yourself.
Racially, I'm Hispanic, even though nobody's exactly sure what that means.
Are Brazilians and Portuguese included in Hispanics or are they Lusitanics?
And according to a book I read by David Bernstein, categorized, I believe it's called, law professor, he said that most of the federal government will not give you a break on federal contracting if you're...
If you put down your Brazilian, except the Department of Transportation, they'll give you racial preferences for bidding on a highway overpass or something like that.
If you're Brazilian, they'll include them in the Hispanics.
We live in a society that's increasingly mixed in terms of ancestry, so we have more and more people coming out who are a quarter this and a quarter that.
And there's lots of money on the table.
And as long as you don't declare yourself white, you've got all sorts of opportunities to get freebies from the government.
I mean, the Supreme Court nominally outlawed affirmative action in colleges because Harvard was clearly discriminating against Asians.
On the other hand, they left huge loopholes like Oh, well, yeah, you can write about your race in your essay and, you know, the missions department can then go, oh, this kid is, you know, black, so we'll give him, you know, 50 extra Pokemon points on his application.
I mean, one issue is that Asian students are pulling away so fast from everybody else in terms of things like SAT scores.
That the Asian-Black gaps are opening up so widely that if you go to total colorblind college admissions at the high end, you end up with a campus with very, very few Blacks qualifying to get in and a huge number of Asians.
And places like Harvard really worry about whether they might turn out like Yogi Berra's former favorite restaurant that got so popular that nobody goes there anymore.
So if Harvard becomes 56% Asian, are Asians going to consider Harvard cool?
Or do Asians want to go to places that there's a lot of white people there?
Nobody really knows.
What I don't know is whether the Asian The rise in Asian SAT scores is completely legitimate, and they just really have been getting so much smarter than everybody else.
In the 21st century, the Asian test scores are pulling away from the field like Secretariat in the 1973 Belmont.
I mean, we know there's a lot of cheating in Asia itself on the SAT. I don't think people bring their bad habits when they come here, do you?
Yeah, I mean, nobody can possibly communicate across the Pacific Ocean.
It's thousands of miles wide.
How could anybody text message what was on the test?
Or just the enormous amount of tiger mother prep that Asians brought with them from their...
2000-year-old tradition of taking tests to become mandarins and doing enormous amounts of test prep for years.
Or is it...
Or there's possible technical reasons that the...
People making the SAT have been criticized for one thing or another for discriminating against Blacks and Latinos, so they keep doing things like, let's get rid of analogies, and that'll be fairer, but it winds up just benefiting the Asians most of all.
Since the year 2000. And I think, basically, we should have Blue Ribbon Commission to look into what's going on exactly with the SAT. I mean, that's one reason that COVID came...
It definitely all happened during COVID and the racial reckoning at once all the colleges went well.
They had to cancel some SAT tests because they had to be six feet apart and they couldn't fit in the classroom etc.
And then they all decided that due to the racial reckoning that they weren't going to take SATs and in fact they're going to make it Go totally test optional.
And the University of California went further.
They banned the applicants from submitting any kind of test score.
And then what happened was that the colleges started noticing like, wow, these kids who are showing up that we let in, they're not very bright.
They are not going to become computer science.
Graduates of MIT. So MIT was the first one that went, ah, this was stupid.
We're going back to demanding standardized tests.
And now Harvard's jumped on board.
Everybody except the University of California at the elite level is moving in that direction because it was- So it is a measure of aptitude, actually.
Yeah.
And it's a very good measure of aptitude.
It tells- You know, GPA, high school GPA is a great measure, but it's hard to compare schools.
Some schools are hard in grades, some are easy.
Having this, having a test and having high school grades, you can put them together and they work pretty well.
But because of the racial gaps that have been around forever and these things, It was decided during the racial reckoning that that absolutely proves as Ibram X. Kendi has demonstrated by scientific logic that the only reason some races might be doing better than other races is because of the evil of whiteness.
But of course, what it turns out is the Asians are doing much, much better.
Because nobody really knows because nobody's that interested in studying it because it sounds like the kind of thing you could get canceled for finding out.
And just in general, we have a lot of problems that have been swept under the rug in recent years because they don't fit within the ideologies, the woke ideologies.
And just to think about them is kind of dangerous sounding.
I mean, my father worked for Lockheed from the late 30s to the 1980s.
And when one of his planes crashed, he'd spend two months on the site.
Because when a plane hits the ground, it spreads out over a mile or so.
The plane so they could reassemble it as a jigsaw puzzle and figure out why it crashed and also picking up pieces of the pilot and the passengers and so forth.
And over the last hundred years, people who were picked because they were smart and hardworking have done a whole lot of good at getting airplanes so they don't crash very much anymore.
Now, Boeing may be working on reversing a lot of that history, but yeah, you know, we got a lot better at things by having systems to find people who were competent and work hard, and now the zeitgeist in the 21st century has been moving away from that.
Will we see a lot of planes crashing?
God, I hope not, but you know.
We need to make a 180 degree U-turn in terms of what we value, whether it's competence or diversity.
And lately, diversity has been winning and that's going to get people killed.
I mean, I'm asking these questions because South Africa tried this and the country is just continuously degraded for, well, 30 years this year.
To the point where there's no electricity in parts at times and the murder rate is among the highest in the world.
The rape rate is the highest in the world.
But there's no deceleration that I can tell from afar, thousands of miles away, but I'm watching and it's like, no, there's no second guessing.
It's just like going to ride it right back to the Stone Age.
Pretend it was never an advanced society.
In our country, which is different from South Africa in a lot of ways, will there be a point, like when the planes do crash, And the air traffic controllers are just high or too dumb or distract or don't care to keep the planes from crashing.
Will there be a public demand like, no, no, no, let's just hire viability from now on?
So they immediately passed some laws that made it...
Made it harder to become a pilot.
And there hasn't been a fatal plane crash of American airliner since then.
And, you know, some of it is we got really good pilots these days, in part because congressmen worry about stuff like that.
Now, are we...
But on the other hand, the...
The Obama administration came along and basically sabotaged the system for hiring air traffic controllers.
Congress had set up a pretty good system for finding good people in the 90s.
But yeah, it turned out that it's like white men really like airplanes.
It's like, you know, what have white men ever done with airplanes since the Wright brothers?
So there were too many whites, so the Obama administration came up with a totally absurd, corrupt test to hire more black guys.
And so what happens is then...
You get fewer people still make it through the training.
So the training has been kept pretty legitimate.
So you flunk out more people, which then means that you're under the number of air traffic controllers you expected.
So you're making them work really long hours and they're getting more and more tired on the job and they're making mistakes and stuff like that.
And it tracks back to the Obama administration's DEI program for air traffic controllers.
Can we avoid that?
Yeah, we can.
We just got to talk about it.
And we just can't just shut down discussion by saying, are you saying that, you know, a stereotype that on average...
Blacks wouldn't make as good air traffic controllers as whites.
And the answer is yeah.
Yeah, I'm saying that.
So you expect to have a fewer percentage passing the test.
And we can live with it.
We live with it every day in sports that there are racial differences in performance on average.
And nobody cares that much.
And, you know, God bless them.
We love sports.
So yeah, there is hope for the country that we can go back and have a philosophy for things like jet travel that we consider as important as the NFL and therefore we can't have racial quotas getting in the way.
Well, yeah, somebody suggested to me, it's like, well...
Dave, you're in the best possible position.
It's the fourth year of a Democratic president.
Everybody's sick of Biden.
But if Trump gets elected, then there will be an enormous effort on the part of the establishment to crack down on honest dissident voices that lead to horrible outcomes like Trump getting re-elected.
And if...
If Biden wins, then they'll go, oh, we've got four more years and we've really got to change things so we never let Trump win.
Trump's type people win again.
So it could be a short-term thaw or it could be that enough people have noticed.
And have been empowered by changes like Elon Musk opening up Twitter so that, you know, I can have 125,000 followers.
Just, you know, the accumulation of little changes like that, that, you know, these ideas that I've been propounding for 30 years.
I have people out there going, yeah, Sailor's ideas, they make sense.
He's like the most reasonable guy in America.
Maybe, you know, we've gone through a watershed and we're beyond the mania of the racial reckoning and the great awokening.
Yeah, I mean, I didn't, it seemed ridiculous, but it also didn't seem like, it also seemed like what they want to do is get you into a position where it's like, oh, I'm not one of those horrible people.
Here's these six guys are the really horrible people and get me to condemn people who, you know, get to drive them out of publicity.
You know, kind of the way, you know, you hear liberals talk about, well, the great thing about William F. Buckley was he cracked down on Pat Buchanan.
You know, I worked for National Review, wrote for National Review in the 90s.
But I did meet Mr. Buchanan and, you know, Pat was a great guy.
I mean, one of my last memories of my father before he died at 95 was...
Pat sent me one of his new books and he'd gone through and put post-it notes on every page where he quoted me or made a reference to some concept of mine.
So I showed it to my dad and he read it.
He looked through at all the things that Pat had with his own hand.
Had said all the nice things he'd said about me and was like, wow, this is great.
And that was like the last thing or last interaction before he died.
And I thank Pat Buchanan for it.
And a lot of people have good stories about Pat Buchanan.
I mean, they say history is written by the winners.
My impression is more history is written by historians who got paid by one side or the other, not necessarily the winners, to write the history.
So, you know, for 100 years after the Civil War in the United States, the South, which was mostly pretty broke, but they could still scrape together enough money to pay historians to write the story of the lost cause.
And so most of our history books were kind of biased in favor of the South.
You know, how we're going to remember our time, I don't know.
But, you know, it could change very much.
And, you know, maybe we'll have different heroes all of a sudden.
Maybe you and me will come out looking pretty good at this.