True Anon Truth Feed - Episode 468: Bomb Iran
Aired: 2025-06-23
Duration: 02:14:26


=== U.S. Escalation Threatens Serious Damage (14:24) ===

[00:00:00]  It's Friday.
[00:00:01]  It is June 20th at 3 p.m.
[00:00:04]  And we are sort of just adding a little bit at the beginning of the episode here because I kind of wanted to make this public.
[00:00:11]  Liz, there is absolutely no way that Donald Trump, the peace president, the guy who was elected to get us out of all these Middle Eastern quagmires, everything like that.
[00:00:20]  He was going to make everything good.
[00:00:21]  No Iran, nothing like that, is not going to bomb the country of Iran in any way, shape, or form.
[00:00:29]  Yeah, no way.
[00:00:30]  That's what he campaigned on.
[00:00:31]  No forever wars, never.
[00:00:33]  He was the anti-war president, right?
[00:00:36]  He would never betray us.
[00:00:39]  Congratulations.
[00:00:40]  Just kidding.
[00:00:42]  It is Sunday afternoon in Israel.
[00:00:46]  I got to hand it to you.
[00:00:48]  Good job on this one.
[00:00:50]  So we are just playing because we actually did record an episode about everything that was going on over there on Friday.
[00:01:00]  And I think it's pretty good.
[00:01:01]  I think most of it still holds up.
[00:01:03]  Actually, I think all of it still holds up.
[00:01:04]  Very informative.
[00:01:05]  However, then last night, things changed.
[00:01:10]  And it felt weird to release the episode without coming in and being like, hey, a bunch of stuff changed.
[00:01:16]  And maybe we got some commentary on that too.
[00:01:18]  So what has happened since last night?
[00:01:21]  Or what happened last night?
[00:01:22]  What's happened today?
[00:01:23]  What's going on?
[00:01:24]  Well, first of all, I've decided that I think we need 24-hour stock markets and on every day of the week and the weekend to just stop world leaders from bombing each other because they'll get too scared of what the markets will do.
[00:01:36]  I agree with that.
[00:01:37]  I think the only reason that's the only reason why Trump decided to do this on a weekend.
[00:01:44]  But no, so the U.S., in case you like, really haven't been paying attention, on Saturday night, the U.S. launched a series of strikes, code name Operation Midnight Hammer.
[00:01:55]  Yeah, this happened at 2:30 in the morning, Tehran time.
[00:01:58]  I was at home about to get some food with a couple of guys.
[00:02:05]  And at first, I was like, no way.
[00:02:09]  And then I was like, oh, no, no, they definitely did it.
[00:02:12]  So there had been some sort of maneuverings with like B2s, which I had been following.
[00:02:16]  Stealth Bomber, we talk about a little bit in this episode.
[00:02:20]  Kind of being sent around the world, which is now, I guess, being described by the administration as like a misdirection.
[00:02:26]  And meanwhile, saying that they happened to trick the OSINT guys, that maybe they didn't have them.
[00:02:34]  Yep, that might have looks like that might have been what's happening there.
[00:02:38]  In the meantime, Trump was sending, I don't know, like six or seven B2s over to Tehran.
[00:02:44]  They bomb three different sites, including Fordo.
[00:02:48]  It's Natan's, Isfahan, and Fordo.
[00:02:52]  And they used, as far as we know, like the bunker buster bombs we talk about in this episode.
[00:02:58]  That kind of the word on everyone's lips.
[00:03:00]  And at the same time, some submarines launched Tomahawk missiles.
[00:03:05]  And I think that's what bombed Natans and Isfahan.
[00:03:10]  And they are declaring victory, it looks like.
[00:03:13]  Yeah, I mean, they're just saying a bunch of shit.
[00:03:15]  I do want to say that like I was trying to kind of do some napkin math about how much this whole thing costs, just because I was like trying to kind of guess a little bit.
[00:03:26]  I will say my guess is somewhere between $300 and $400 million.
[00:03:32]  Yeah.
[00:03:32]  And I think that this one just happened.
[00:03:35]  And there's a lot of noise online, offline, on the TV, everywhere.
[00:03:40]  And it's really hard to tell what's going on.
[00:03:42]  Right.
[00:03:42]  I think that's probably maybe not satisfying for a lot of people who want instant reaction, immediate moment, like instant, instant.
[00:03:49]  We know everything happening right now.
[00:03:51]  And here's the take.
[00:03:53]  But I think this, like, things are very fluid and it's all very unclear what exactly went down here, I think, because there's so many parties involved and there's so much smoke and mirrors with how all of this stuff gets played out, especially online.
[00:04:12]  Like it's really crazy that Trump announced this on Truth Social.
[00:04:16]  Yes.
[00:04:17]  That is completely insane.
[00:04:21]  And, you know, at this point, it's not even clear if the Iranians, it seems they may have known that this attack was coming.
[00:04:28]  Like they had been giving even an official or back channel heads up or they had known ahead of time because it seems that they moved pretty much everything out of a lot of the bases into other locations because they were anticipating an attack.
[00:04:42]  Yeah, I will say, I mean, especially since June 13th when the Israelis bombed, you know, if you're Iran, you're like, I feel like the U.S., there's like a good chance they're going to get involved.
[00:04:55]  So we should probably move some stuff maybe out of where it is, where the place that they say they might bomb.
[00:05:00]  Because if they do, then you're in a little bit of trouble.
[00:05:03]  I mean, you know, exactly.
[00:05:05]  Like there's, we don't really, we kind of, I mean, we know that they bombed these places.
[00:05:09]  We don't know the damage.
[00:05:10]  We don't know what was destroyed.
[00:05:13]  Obviously, like the Iranians aren't saying that.
[00:05:16]  And whatever the U.S. says, I mean, it's just like fucking Trump going out and being like, we completely destroyed their nuclear program.
[00:05:23]  And then I watched the interview with JD Vance this morning where he's saying, you know, we've definitely set them back some, which is probably, I mean, if anything, that would probably tend towards the more accurate one, the more sort of accurate assessment of what's going on there.
[00:05:38]  But I mean, they're all just kind of guessing.
[00:05:40]  And you got to remember, and listeners really got to remember, there's so much insane propaganda, especially on social media about In favor of the U.S. and Israel, that it's, I would take a lot, any sort of assessments with a huge grain of salt until there's some sort of way to at least glean what you might think is closer to the truth.
[00:06:04]  Because right now, you're probably not getting that from Trump's true social account.
[00:06:09]  You know, I mean, this is the thing.
[00:06:11]  Trump's, I mean, this is the thing that really is, it's kind of nuts about this because Trump is now saying, I mean, the rhetoric, and we talk about it in this episode too, so I don't want to get too ahead of ourselves, but like the rhetoric that Trump has been deploying about this has shifted so much.
[00:06:27]  And like, it's rhetoric that all of them have been deploying about this have shifted so much.
[00:06:30]  Is the mission just to destroy Iran's nuclear program?
[00:06:33]  And if so, is it to actually destroy it?
[00:06:36]  Because what does that mean?
[00:06:36]  I mean, kill every single scientist, you know, have permanent inspectors on the ground, you know, bomb anything that ever looks like it'd be able to enrich uranium.
[00:06:47]  Or is it a is it a way to actually, you know, enact regime change or is it to like militarily defeat Iran's long-range attack capabilities?
[00:06:58]  It shifts kind of depending on who's talking and what the audience is.
[00:07:02]  But Trump so far has said two different things.
[00:07:07]  I mean, and now I guess he's kind of going further with one of them.
[00:07:10]  One, he said that the nuclear program was totally destroyed, which means this was a successful mission, meaning that there's absolutely no need for any further missions.
[00:07:18]  He said, if they, if they retaliate, you know, if they launch missiles at any of the U.S. bases, you know, then we'll really show them who's boss.
[00:07:25]  Although his like weird little speech last night, his like two-minute national address he gave at 10 p.m. kind of briefly mentioned that, but it was like clearly him doing like the Trump treading water bullshit.
[00:07:36]  I will say the vibe of that speech, he walked out there with Heg Seth, Rubio, and Vance.
[00:07:43]  And the vibe of the speech was not that this was over.
[00:07:47]  I'll say that.
[00:07:47]  No.
[00:07:48]  It was not like the, you know, we got him, it's over kind of finality.
[00:07:52]  It didn't feel like that at all, just off the vibes.
[00:07:56]  Definitely.
[00:07:56]  I mean, I think, I think, you know, in the past, and we talk about this in the episode too, when they, you know, they killed Salamani, there's been like attacks on like the U.S., some like airbase that the U.S. has in northern Iraq.
[00:08:10]  And, you know, it's like, is it going to be a tit for tat thing with that?
[00:08:13]  Like, what is that going to look like?
[00:08:14]  I don't think anybody, I mean, Trump is not.
[00:08:17]  I mean, I don't know if really Trump even fucking knows.
[00:08:19]  I think, you know, he's so kind of brain dead.
[00:08:22]  I'm not really sure this stuff is occurring to him.
[00:08:24]  But yeah, like there is a there is a risk for escalation.
[00:08:29]  And one thing it's so sort of maddening to hear people talk about is the goalpost sort of shifting on the MAGA right about how, oh, well, you know, Trump is, he's not doing regime change.
[00:08:39]  He's not doing a new war.
[00:08:40]  You know, there's no boots in the ground or anything.
[00:08:42]  And again, we talk about this in the episode, but like, I'm pretty sure joining Israel's war against Iran makes us party to the war against Iran.
[00:08:52]  I mean, yeah, all that matters is what Iran thinks.
[00:08:54]  And I think they're right if they think that we just joined the war.
[00:08:57]  That was a declaration of war.
[00:08:58]  I think they would think that.
[00:09:01]  I mean, I think that you mentioned the tit for tat.
[00:09:04]  And I think that that is like. important to highlight when we're talking about like what Iran's reaction might be because I do think the Soleimani, bringing up the Soleimani point is important because I think that DC probably wants that.
[00:09:19]  Like the idea of, you know, having a, you know, retaliatory bombing that's kind of largely symbolic, you know, that's more of like a PR flex for the home crowd than trying to actually inflict some damage on Western assets.
[00:09:34]  I think that's like maybe what Washington is hoping for.
[00:09:41]  To, I mean, Iran has come out and said that, you know, they're not going to say like that's what we're doing.
[00:09:45]  They're not going to say anything.
[00:09:47]  But I think we could, you know, I wouldn't be surprised to see them, you know, attack some of the U.S. bases either in Iraq or Syria, maybe even Qatar.
[00:09:58]  It's right there.
[00:09:59]  There's also a British air base on Cyprus, just noting that has been supporting the strikes on Gaza.
[00:10:05]  Probably not that, but could be.
[00:10:08]  But I also think that there's going to be, you know, they're probably going to reach out for some sort of diplomatic intermediary to come in, you know, whether that probably hoping that's like Russia or China or maybe the Gulf states.
[00:10:21]  Maybe that's like kind of, you know, you don't really want to involve them.
[00:10:25]  I don't know if that would be so good for Iran.
[00:10:28]  And so you, I mean, you can kind of imagine, you know, to what you were saying about how the goalposts keep shifting and you don't really understand the timelines or Vance says three to five years and Trump says it's over, you know, like you can imagine a pattern of like strike, pause, call intermediaries, repeat.
[00:10:46]  You know what I mean?
[00:10:47]  And just kind of slowly grinding and this thing just kind of, you know, being in the background, like constantly, which seems crazy to me.
[00:10:58]  You know, but I also don't think that Iran is built for a war of attrition.
[00:11:02]  So I think a ceasefire is totally an option, you know, to get everyone to kind of cool down a bit.
[00:11:07]  Yeah.
[00:11:07]  I mean, Trump just tweeted, what did he say?
[00:11:10]  He said some shit.
[00:11:11]  I mean, he just truthed.
[00:11:12]  Excuse me.
[00:11:14]  He said, it's not politically correct to use the term regime change in quotes.
[00:11:21]  But if the current Iranian regime is unable to make Iran great again, why wouldn't there be a regime change?
[00:11:29]  MIGA.
[00:11:31]  And I'm assuming that stands for make Iran great again.
[00:11:34]  I don't think you can just do that, like use that in that way.
[00:11:37]  Yeah, it seems a little weird, but also, isn't that a musical group?
[00:11:42]  He uh sorry, that was really fucking stupid, guys.
[00:11:45]  I really apologize for that.
[00:11:47]  I'm trying to make a me go's joke.
[00:11:48]  I mean, it's just it's really hot, and I got to turn the air conditioner off for this.
[00:11:52]  So, it's, I'm a little roasted in here, but anyways, um, I think that is important.
[00:11:57]  Like, Trump, at least rhetorically backing the regime change angle here.
[00:12:02]  I mean, everyone, I'm like really fucking sick of the people who are like, don't take him seriously.
[00:12:07]  And it's like, like, oh, he just like kind of says stuff or whatever.
[00:12:10]  It's like, well, he's saying this.
[00:12:12]  And like, this is like, you know, it seems like the evidence is kind of more in favor of this happening than it not happening.
[00:12:18]  I'm fucking sick of, and we had this with fucking Biden too.
[00:12:21]  I'm sick of having to like divine from the tea leaves of our fucking like retarded presidents like babble of what they're actually going to do or what's actually going to happen here.
[00:12:33]  It's like, you have to, it's like, I feel like I'm like listening to a soothsayer and trying to put things together.
[00:12:38]  Like, oh, does him saying this like mean that they're actually going to do it or not?
[00:12:41]  I'm just, here's a fucking hunch.
[00:12:44]  He's going to do what Netanyahu and him cook up.
[00:12:46]  You know what I mean?
[00:12:47]  He's going to do, or really, he's going to like follow as Israel leads the way in this because that, I mean, again, we don't know if that's the case.
[00:12:54]  I'm sure that the U.S. was involved in the planning intelligence of those initial strikes there, but at least Israel allows us, we can sort of follow in their wake in the with the at least plausible deniability of just like, oh, we're defending Israel.
[00:13:08]  I mean, that's what this whole thing is anyway.
[00:13:09]  I don't think anyone seriously, any serious person would think that Iran was going to nuke the United States of America at any time in the near future.
[00:13:17]  I also don't think that any fucking serious person thinks that the, that Iran was going to nuke Israel at any time in the near future, no matter how many people might desire that worldwide if you took some sort of poll.
[00:13:30]  I mean, this is just all, it's all fucking, it's all, it's like you said, it's all smoke and mirrors.
[00:13:35]  Well, I think that like Trump is speaking incoherently because it is incoherent and the state is incoherent.
[00:13:40]  And like, this is now the state speaking plainly.
[00:13:43]  It's in its incoherence, you know?
[00:13:46]  I think that like danger is if the U.S., for whatever reason, decides they need to hit Iran in a way that actually inflicts some serious damage because this was not for as much of a fireworks as it was and as much as a smoke, like big, you know, big show it was, especially with all the crazy bombers and the big, expensive bombs and the crazy, you know, you know, oh, they did the 44-hour flight.
[00:14:11]  How do they do it?
[00:14:12]  You know, all of the PR and all of that, like them carpet bombing a city or something.
[00:14:18]  You know what I'm saying?
[00:14:19]  Or taking out like power grids or like serious, serious damage to the state.

=== Engaged Brinksmanship (14:58) ===

[00:14:25]  I think that that is when a little scary, but that mentioned Israel and we got, we got to talk about the elephant in the room.
[00:14:35]  It's unclear what they want, right?
[00:14:37]  Because I think that there is this idea that they want to keep pushing Iran to keep escalating instead of kind of stopping at whatever this like first token move is going to be.
[00:14:49]  Like they could hit Tehran hard.
[00:14:51]  They could try to inflict the same pain that they did on Lebanon to kind of bring Hezbollah to heal.
[00:14:58]  But part of me, like, you know, because you said that this is for Israel.
[00:15:01]  And like, I actually do think this was for Israel in the sense that it might give Israel an off-ramp a little bit from this like insane decision.
[00:15:12]  Like rather than it being this like immediate opening salvo for regime change, though I do want to talk about that in a second.
[00:15:19]  Like, you know, Israel is kind of in like a little bit of a bind where they announced, they like came out and they're like, we want regime change.
[00:15:27]  We're attacking.
[00:15:28]  We're going.
[00:15:28]  We might nuke you.
[00:15:29]  We might do everything.
[00:15:30]  Like everything is.
[00:15:31]  Nothing's off the table.
[00:15:32]  Yeah.
[00:15:32]  Nothing's off the table.
[00:15:33]  And now, but like they also, like, as we talked about in this episode, um, can't do that without the U.S. like actually doing it for them or providing all of the weapons and continuing to like basically provide them weapons for a war of attrition.
[00:15:46]  Like they just, they can't do it alone.
[00:15:50]  And so now after this U.S. attack, Israel can like politically afford to kind of take a step back a little bit and be like, well, now maybe we should like cool off.
[00:16:02]  You know what I mean?
[00:16:04]  Which at the same time could just be buying every actor time to build up for the main event, right?
[00:16:11]  Which will take at least a few more weeks, maybe a few more months.
[00:16:14]  JD Vance mentioned years.
[00:16:16]  Who knows what they're thinking for the timeline?
[00:16:18]  On Iran to be a vassal like all of the others in the region.
[00:16:23]  And if they don't acquiesce, then it's going to be regime change, just like all the others in the region.
[00:16:28]  And, you know, in this episode, we didn't really talk about why they want to do regime change because that's like a bigger conversation and probably not that we get into right now.
[00:16:38]  But, you know, spoiler, it has to do with Russia and China, not surprising.
[00:16:42]  But I think in the immediate, the only thing that matters right now is whether Israel stops attacking Iran.
[00:16:49]  And if they do, then Iran will stop shooting back at them.
[00:16:52]  I mean, Iran has, I think, since the U.S. strikes hit Israel again, which would also be really funny if they only just kept attacking Israel and didn't attack anything.
[00:17:03]  Well, that could be.
[00:17:04]  But also, I wouldn't, I would not put that past them to be like, oh, just like continue.
[00:17:10]  Because also, you don't want to provoke an even bigger, like, you don't want to give the U.S. an even bigger reason to step in.
[00:17:18]  Right.
[00:17:19]  Yeah.
[00:17:19]  So I could see them doing that as well.
[00:17:22]  I mean, there's a lot of different ways this could go.
[00:17:24]  I mean, that would basically leave us in the same if it's just like Israel and Iran still going at it without the U.S.'s overt involvement, like we saw, saw, I guess, last night.
[00:17:37]  And we kind of talk about what that might look like in this episode a little bit in terms of like running out of ammunition for both sides.
[00:17:43]  So this weird long-range war.
[00:17:46]  It just, I think, what galls me so much is if you watch, because I've been trying to watch the news a bit today, like just like what's going on on CNN.
[00:17:55]  It's so insane to me how there is this like just concerted effort in the media.
[00:18:00]  For some reason, I'm just like supposed to, as just like a person living in America, like supposed to really get pissed off at Iran.
[00:18:08]  And I talk about this in the episode, which I'm going to fucking stop saying and sort of reflexively doing at this point because it's true.
[00:18:13]  But it is just mind-numbing how in line so many influential people are for these strikes.
[00:18:23]  I mean, you had Cuomo come out and say, oh God, I was wondering what he thought.
[00:18:28]  Thank fucking God he did.
[00:18:31]  I don't know if you saw his daughter also came out as a as a demisexual anti-fascist for Cuomo, which is.
[00:18:37]  Wait, was she trying to tank his campaign?
[00:18:40]  I know, I know.
[00:18:41]  That's what's wrong with the Democratic Party, I thought.
[00:18:45]  But it's, yeah, it's, it's, I mean, it's this crazy, they are like doing this like really last minute overdrive to like kick up consent for this war.
[00:18:55]  But I just, it's, it's hard to say, but also they're like not.
[00:18:59]  I mean, that's what I'm saying.
[00:19:00]  It's like they're, they're not really.
[00:19:02]  I mean, if you, if you look back to Iraq, like they kind of spent some dough on that motherfucker, right?
[00:19:07]  Like they're like a real campaign.
[00:19:09]  Literally zero theater here.
[00:19:11]  There is no, um, they are not even pretending to like show a bunch of things.
[00:19:20]  I mean, it's just like they're having a bunch of influencers tweet things and opinions.
[00:19:24]  And you have the like little opinion pieces that come out, but they're not doing any kind of grand performance of whatever they found or whatever.
[00:19:31]  Everyone is sort of like, oh yeah, we kind of knew that there was like a weird nuclear thing with them, but like, what's the problem?
[00:19:37]  Like, and if anything, they're really just relying on, I think, people nodding their head because they assume that has something to do with Israel and we have to lockstep, Like, just support Israel because of the, you know, rise in anti-Semitism and, and everything here.
[00:19:56]  But it does feel like, I think that's why, also, like, as resident old head, it feels totally psycho to be speedrunning Iraq, like 15 years later, but like on the internet and without any, like, hollowed out of the performance, which so much of the even people who didn't live through it or were too young or whatever, like the kind of story of the Iraq war and the mythos of the Iraq war so much, like, hinges so much on the lead up to it, you know?
[00:20:24]  Yeah, that's such a central part.
[00:20:26]  And now we're like speedrunning the same fucking thing, the same program, but without that central piece.
[00:20:32]  And like with these, like, Laura Loomer, you know what I mean?
[00:20:39]  Yeah.
[00:20:39]  Yeah, I know, I know.
[00:20:40]  I'm being like, oh, there's like Charlie Kirk being like, you know what?
[00:20:43]  Joe Biden let all these jihadis into the country.
[00:20:46]  You know, you better arm up because the Iranian terror cells could be fucking coming to your work site.
[00:20:53]  Dude, I mean, that's what's like, I know the tragedy farce thing gets like overused, but Loomer makes me feel fucking crazy about this.
[00:21:02]  They're all Loomer.
[00:21:03]  You know what I mean?
[00:21:04]  They're all Loomer.
[00:21:04]  And it's, it's, it's, it's wild too.
[00:21:06]  It's desiring how all of these like, um, these sort of MAGA types, you know, pivoted so quickly to complete support for this with sort of the same rationale you saw from sort of the Samantha Powers types about humanitarian interventions because this is kind of Magus humanitarian intervention.
[00:21:24]  I mean, they're intervening to protect the innocent civilians of Israel and, you know, their human rights to rape prisoners.
[00:21:33]  But what about Vance?
[00:21:35]  His pivot.
[00:21:37]  You know, it's so fucking, can I say a couple things about this fucking jackass?
[00:21:42]  Because I really don't like him.
[00:21:44]  Is it's so obvious that he seeded stories that he privately he was opposed.
[00:21:50]  Privately, he didn't want it.
[00:21:51]  And there's like a whole crew of right-wing influencers that are like, oh, I can tell.
[00:21:56]  I can tell.
[00:21:57]  I saw a little blue check action on my for you.
[00:21:59]  It's like, oh, I can tell he look at his face during the speech.
[00:22:02]  He didn't, he didn't like it.
[00:22:03]  He said, no, he's not like the others.
[00:22:05]  I'm like, shut the fuck up.
[00:22:08]  This is the thing I'll say about Vance.
[00:22:09]  This has nothing to do with what we're talking about, but I was thinking about this.
[00:22:12]  Is that he resonates with this like slice on the right, a lot of whom used to be on the left, but also like offline and online, but I'm kind of talking about online.
[00:22:24]  Like these people that believe that they have like done all the right things.
[00:22:29]  Like I went to college, I studied hard, I worked my ass off, I did all of this stuff.
[00:22:32]  I'm like a good middle-class American.
[00:22:35]  Like what?
[00:22:36]  And they still feel like they got left behind or like socially and professionally maligned by like the woke intelligentsia or whatever.
[00:22:46]  And like that is JD's base, like the resentful middle class.
[00:22:50]  And so the lump in middle.
[00:22:53]  Yes.
[00:22:53]  And I'm flagging that because I think I just want to say college educated unemployment is rising.
[00:23:00]  And also, I don't know what the fuck is going to happen with job losses in professional sectors as new tech gets adopted and so on and so forth.
[00:23:07]  But like, I just had this like realization when I was watching his like dumb mug with its like eyeliner all over the place on whatever it was, Meet the Press this morning or whatever it was.
[00:23:18]  Um, of just like the seething resentment that like seeps out of his fat little pores, not little.
[00:23:27]  Um, it just really gets to me.
[00:23:30]  Peter Teals could probably fist.
[00:23:31]  He was like, We're not at war with Iran.
[00:23:33]  We're at war with Iran's nuclear program.
[00:23:35]  It's like, oh, okay, thanks.
[00:23:36]  Thanks, JD.
[00:23:37]  Oh, thanks for that.
[00:23:38]  Okay, yeah.
[00:23:39]  We're not at war with whatever Germany.
[00:23:40]  We're at war with German, Germany's army.
[00:23:42]  It's like that.
[00:23:43]  It's like so, it's so, it's like a debate kind of thing.
[00:23:48]  You know, he also, I watched that, I watched that Meet the Press interview he did, and he accused Iran of brinksmanship in it, which is so absurd.
[00:23:59]  They're engaged in brinksmanship.
[00:24:01]  They're engaged in brinksmanship is what they're doing.
[00:24:04]  I never, not brinksmanship.
[00:24:07]  God.
[00:24:07]  On the international stage, brinksmanship.
[00:24:10]  Question to our listeners, too.
[00:24:12]  If you own the Tulsi Gabbard 2020 no war with Iran t-shirt that she was selling on her website, please send us a photo and we will give you nothing because I think we pretty much have no t-shirts left in stock.
[00:24:26]  But my God, I, I mean, we talked about Tulsi's episodes.
[00:24:31]  I know.
[00:24:32]  God, I love her so much.
[00:24:33]  She's just what a fucking loser.
[00:24:36]  And, you know, it's, it's all of these like MAGA people twisting kind of in the wind and following, you know, Trump down whatever corridor he wants to go down to.
[00:24:48]  I mean, I guess they just don't care, but it's like, it's so stupid, you know?
[00:24:53]  Maybe Trump is just out to prove that he can, he can fulfill everyone's dreams, whether you're, you know, Bill Crystal or I don't know, whoever else, whoever was just tariffs on the Seychelles.
[00:25:04]  He's just fucking doing what everyone else tells him.
[00:25:06]  He's just fucking Biden.
[00:25:08]  What's the difference?
[00:25:09]  Yeah.
[00:25:09]  And I don't mean that as in like, oh, the presidents are same, even though I believe that.
[00:25:13]  But also, I just mean like literally Donald Trump is like a husk.
[00:25:18]  Watching him get out there and talk about fucking, I mean, anytime you get, you caught Donald Trump off the cuff, he would have like months ago.
[00:25:25]  He's like, I'm not that worried about it.
[00:25:28]  And now he is like fully on board, ready to go because someone fucking convinced him on the, about the fireworks show that, that this would give him.
[00:25:37]  It's fucking pathetic.
[00:25:38]  Yeah.
[00:25:38]  It's fucking pathetic.
[00:25:39]  And I want to say this because maybe I don't say it explicitly enough in the episode, although probably do.
[00:25:45]  And I've said this before, and I'll say it again, and this is constant.
[00:25:48]  You know, Iran should have a nuke.
[00:25:50]  If this wasn't proof that Iran should have a nuclear weapon, then I don't know what the fuck would be.
[00:25:55]  You know, it's crazy to me that the U.S. gets to be this insane fucking arbiter that gets to do gun control because that's what this shit is.
[00:26:04]  That gets to do fucking gun control in these countries.
[00:26:08]  I mean, it just means that like nowhere is the only way you can really be a sovereign country is if you have a nuclear bomb.
[00:26:15]  Otherwise, the U.S. can just send in some fucking B-2s or the toilets in it and their fucking lady pilot taking a shit in there.
[00:26:22]  I'm sorry, you looked at me when I said that, but you know, she was taking a shit in there.
[00:26:26]  The statistics.
[00:26:27]  Here's my question.
[00:26:28]  Here's my question.
[00:26:30]  If, well, I think it's like obvious.
[00:26:32]  I wouldn't, I mean, I'm sure Iran is going to like leave the MPT and just like get right on it, out in the open or whatever.
[00:26:38]  But if, here's my question: if you're Turkey or you're the Saudis, what's stopping you now?
[00:26:43]  Well, I think with the Saudis, it's, I think they, isn't there, I feel like they, Trump's going to sell them a nuke or already did.
[00:26:50]  Okay.
[00:26:51]  What about Turkey?
[00:26:52]  Yeah.
[00:26:52]  What about Turkey?
[00:26:53]  Because you know, they know they're on a list.
[00:26:57]  Yeah.
[00:26:58]  Well, I'm on a list there too, but they are.
[00:27:00]  Yeah, I agree.
[00:27:02]  You know.
[00:27:03]  Yeah.
[00:27:05]  Yeah.
[00:27:05]  No, I'm with you.
[00:27:06]  I mean, I'm just saying, it's, it's, it's crazy to me that, that, that, you know, all these fucking any, those sort of smarter MAGA types talk about, oh, well, you know, I don't care what happens in other countries.
[00:27:17]  Just like, I'm all about this country.
[00:27:19]  Well, it's very clear that Donald Trump includes in MAGA also Israel's stated foreign policy goals.
[00:27:26]  And so when it gets to be like, oh, we need to defend Taiwan because of MAGA or whatever, you fucking dumb cocksuckers will go along with that shit as fucking well.
[00:27:35]  It's, it's, it's, it's absurd to me.
[00:27:38]  Every country should be able to fulfill any nuclear ambitions that they have.
[00:27:44]  Otherwise, the U.S. can just send anyone they want.
[00:27:46]  They can do whatever the fuck they want to you.
[00:27:48]  They can kill your president.
[00:27:49]  They can kill as many of your scientists as they want.
[00:27:51]  They can bomb as many of your fucking military bases or your cities as they want.
[00:27:54]  And you can't do shit about it.
[00:27:56]  All right.
[00:27:57]  Enough, Yapen.
[00:27:58]  That's enough from our little update.
[00:28:02]  Now on to the episode.
[00:28:04]  This is the reality of what's at stake, what we are facing now.
[00:28:08]  Because as we stand here today, closer to the brink of nuclear annihilation than ever before, political elite and warmongers are carelessly fomenting fear and tensions between nuclear powers.
[00:28:22]  Perhaps it's because they are confident that they will have access to nuclear shelters for themselves and for their families that regular people won't have access to.
[00:28:33]  So it's up to us, the people, to speak up and demand an end to this madness.
[00:28:40]  We must reject this path to nuclear war and work toward a world where no one has to live in fear of a nuclear holocaust.
[00:29:12]  My thing with that video is it's like, who's that for?
[00:29:17]  You know, I've never really understood the Tulsi guy.

=== Tulsi Guy Confusion (03:40) ===

[00:29:23]  I think we maybe talked about this on the show before.
[00:29:26]  What do you mean you don't understand?
[00:29:27]  You totally know who the Tulsi guy is.
[00:29:29]  He's like a horny Green Party guy.
[00:29:31]  I don't know if it's...
[00:29:32]  Not anymore, maybe.
[00:29:34]  Yeah, I mean, I think it's like the anti-war hates the Democrats, what we now call post-left, but we didn't before because like this person also probably was a canvasser for the Sierra Club for many years.
[00:29:48]  Yeah, you know, to me, it's like, I feel like I've seen it so much in the Bay Area.
[00:29:53]  I feel like I'm, to me, I'm getting, I get, when I think of Tulsi, I think of like divorced like guy who was like posting a lot of Jill Stein memes.
[00:30:03]  But also anti-war veterans.
[00:30:05]  Yes, yeah.
[00:30:07]  And like, and then I, I, I just am like, I'm wondering what her real constituency is now.
[00:30:13]  But I mean more like, was that video for people on the inside or for the public?
[00:30:20]  Yeah, yeah.
[00:30:21]  I mean, it seems aimed directly square at our president, Donald J. Trump.
[00:30:25]  She put it out June 8th.
[00:30:28]  And also, I want to know, is it within the National Security coalition of however many agencies it is, the DNI oversees?
[00:30:39]  I don't really know exactly how that all works.
[00:30:41]  They're going to chain of man there.
[00:30:43]  But do they have their own in-house editing or did someone do the music or did they send that out to an agency?
[00:30:48]  I'd really like to know.
[00:30:49]  I'm going to say there was the heavy hand of maybe some AI editing.
[00:30:54]  Yeah, some beautiful music there.
[00:30:56]  Hello, everyone.
[00:30:58]  I'm Liz.
[00:30:58]  My name is Brace.
[00:31:00]  I'm producer Young Chomsky.
[00:31:01]  And this is Truanon.
[00:31:03]  I just want to say, as a preface to anything that we say here, you people have to understand it.
[00:31:09]  We do a podcast for work, no?
[00:31:12]  Correct?
[00:31:13]  Wait, what?
[00:31:14]  I'm not saying you people.
[00:31:15]  I'm saying you people to those people, but then now I'm addressing you guys.
[00:31:18]  We do a podcast, right?
[00:31:19]  Yes.
[00:31:20]  And we record that podcast one day, and then it actually comes out perhaps on a different one.
[00:31:26]  In fact, almost always.
[00:31:27]  Our schedule is generally Mondays and Thursdays for releases.
[00:31:31]  Sometimes that changes as the schedule does, but that's generally what we'd hear to.
[00:31:35]  Based on the, you know, where the moon is.
[00:31:36]  The moon is.
[00:31:37]  This is what our soothsayers say, you know, it's the different aspects, obviously.
[00:31:41]  Of course, yeah.
[00:31:42]  We read the tea leaves.
[00:31:43]  But this is a fluid situation.
[00:31:49]  And so many things could change between now and the time that this episode comes out on Monday.
[00:31:55]  It is Friday, June 20th right now.
[00:31:57]  And you know what?
[00:31:58]  Tulsi is right.
[00:31:59]  We could be living in the irradiated ruins of New York City by the time this thing reaches the air.
[00:32:07]  I hope not.
[00:32:08]  I do say, you know, it is perfect because you know that today is the solstice.
[00:32:12]  Yeah.
[00:32:13]  It's the first day of summer.
[00:32:14]  Technically tomorrow, I guess, because the solstice hits peak tonight.
[00:32:18]  I think it's a hit different.
[00:32:20]  Well, where we are, I mean.
[00:32:21]  I think it's like 10.30 p.m. or something.
[00:32:23]  It just hits different.
[00:32:24]  Yeah.
[00:32:27]  But it does feel like summer is kicking off.
[00:32:30]  I tend to think that summer heat is kicking off.
[00:32:33]  Things are getting a little hot out there.
[00:32:36]  Don't put the song in.
[00:32:37]  But I tend to feel like summer really kicked off with Liberation Day because that feels like it really put some stuff in motion.
[00:32:49]  But due to, like you say, the nature of the show and our respect for all of the various celestial aspects, I will note that it is now officially summer.
[00:33:02]  And one last thing.

=== U.S. Defensive Assets Ringing Israel (16:04) ===

[00:33:03]  Throughout all of this, I want our listeners to keep in mind that Israel has a giant nuclear arsenal that has never once been inspected by any kind of international body or even national body.
[00:33:17]  They've never let anyone see it.
[00:33:18]  They have between like, what's like, I mean, the estimates vary wildly, between 50 and 400 nuclear weapons in little old, in little old David versus Goliath Israel.
[00:33:31]  And so I think that's like a pretty fair backdrop.
[00:33:33]  Wait, how many do you think they have?
[00:33:36]  I mean, how do you really need?
[00:33:38]  It's Israel.
[00:33:38]  It's Israel.
[00:33:39]  400?
[00:33:40]  That's true.
[00:33:40]  I'm going to say they have 400.
[00:33:42]  Yeah.
[00:33:42]  I feel like I've seen some people be like, they could have like three.
[00:33:45]  And I'm like, you're crazy.
[00:33:46]  No, they don't have three.
[00:33:47]  I think 400 seems a little excessive.
[00:33:50]  I feel like they really care about them, though.
[00:33:52]  But I'm like, as one's kind of like...
[00:33:54]  And they were starting a long time ago.
[00:33:56]  I know, but that's what I'm saying.
[00:33:57]  It's like, as ones kind of get outdated, are those taken off the roster?
[00:34:00]  I don't think so.
[00:34:01]  I think they count.
[00:34:02]  Exactly.
[00:34:02]  I'm like, did they make 50 in like whatever, 1978?
[00:34:05]  And now we're still counting them as having those 50, but they've actually kind of decommissioned some of those newer ones.
[00:34:11]  Do they decommission them?
[00:34:12]  Nuclear weapons?
[00:34:13]  They can get decommissioned, yeah.
[00:34:14]  Really?
[00:34:14]  It's a big thing in the 1980s, yeah.
[00:34:16]  Because I know that we still would be dropping ones from like the 60s, which we could talk about.
[00:34:20]  Yeah, fair enough.
[00:34:21]  Well, let's talk about that.
[00:34:24]  As many people know, we're in World War III.
[00:34:29]  It's happening.
[00:34:30]  We're all going to die.
[00:34:31]  No, but we are in the midst, I guess, of kind of a new phase of, I would say, the Greater October 7th War started by Israel as part of Operation Rising Lion on June 13th.
[00:34:48]  Sort of a nod for their Indian fans there.
[00:34:50]  No?
[00:34:51]  Yeah.
[00:34:52]  And massive aerial bombing campaign targeting power infrastructure, air defense, military bases, et cetera, in Iran.
[00:35:01]  Benjamin Netanyahu went on TV and gave a speech in English claiming that the actual Holocaust, the real, the actual Holocaust happened to the Jews.
[00:35:15]  And now the Jews were striking forth or back or whatever against Hitler II, the Ayatollah, to prevent the nuclear Holocaust that's about to happen to not only the Jews, but to everybody.
[00:35:30]  Yeah.
[00:35:31]  The initial Israeli strikes killed a number of top Iranian commanders, including the heads of the two top military advisory bodies to Khomeini and also multiple IRGC and regular military commanders too.
[00:35:48]  Over the next few days, more targeted strikes at scientists, military bases, et cetera, nuclear facilities.
[00:35:54]  A bunch of civilians have been killed.
[00:35:56]  A bunch of scientists have been killed.
[00:35:58]  I think I already mentioned that.
[00:36:00]  And it has sort of petered, not Peter, I don't want to say petered out, but it was, I think, like really very frightening the first day for a lot of people.
[00:36:11]  And then it settled into, and I'm speaking, you know, not on a personal level here, but into it's like a sort of a tempo of kind of tit for tat strikes with the Iranians launching missiles and the Israelis doing airstrikes.
[00:36:25]  Yeah, I mean, I think that like it probably like shocked a bunch of people at first.
[00:36:29]  And it was like, oh no, now all like Iran's done, blah, dah, dah, dah, dah.
[00:36:34]  But I think it's good to remember that like armies can actually bounce back in a lot of ways that like guerrilla groups can't, even when it looks like like total wipeouts.
[00:36:44]  Like I always think about like remember the not we remember, but I know you're like World War II guy, so Red Army, you know.
[00:36:52]  It's sort of the opposite side of World War II.
[00:36:54]  But anyway, yeah, no, no, totally, totally.
[00:36:56]  You know what I mean?
[00:36:57]  And so it's like, even when like top leadership gets taken out, if you have like a real, you know, command structure, it's very easy to kind of like, you know, get sorted, regroup.
[00:37:09]  And that's kind of what Iran did.
[00:37:11]  And it seems like, you know, I mean, they're striking Israel pretty, pretty hard.
[00:37:15]  I think that Israel clearly expected kind of like quick capitulation.
[00:37:21]  And that just like didn't really happen.
[00:37:23]  And now the situation, like you say, it's like tit for tat.
[00:37:27]  And Israel has now gone to the press and the U.S. and basically being like, nope, now you got to get in.
[00:37:32]  You got to help us because we are running out of everything is what they're saying.
[00:37:39]  They don't talk about the nukes, but they say they're running out of everything.
[00:37:42]  There was a story in the Wall Street Journal, literally called Israel is Running Low of Defensive Interceptors.
[00:37:48]  This is a few days ago, even.
[00:37:51]  And this is what they said.
[00:37:52]  The U.S. has been aware of the capacity problems for months, the officials said, and Washington has been augmenting Israel's defenses with systems on the ground at sea and air.
[00:38:05]  Remember that.
[00:38:06]  Since the conflict escalated in June, the Pentagon has sent more missile defense assets into the region.
[00:38:10]  And now there is concern about the U.S. burning through those through interceptors as well.
[00:38:16]  And then that got echoed again in the Washington Post, where they said an Israeli financial newspaper reported that missile defense cost Israel as much as 1 billion shekels.
[00:38:26]  Okay, Liz.
[00:38:28]  What?
[00:38:29]  Just when you say that.
[00:38:31]  I know it does sound great, but it's roughly $285 million a night.
[00:38:37]  That's crazy.
[00:38:39]  So that's what it costs without resupplies from the United States or greater involvement by U.S. forces.
[00:38:45]  And then they go on, some assessments project Israel can maintain its missile defense for up to 10, for 10 to 12 more days if Iran maintains a steady tempo of attacks.
[00:38:55]  So it's less than two weeks.
[00:38:57]  And right before we started recording, there was another one that came out, again to the Wall Street Journal, that said Israel risks depleting its stockpile of Aero 3 missiles if Iran continues to launch missiles.
[00:39:11]  So it's kind of like a materiel race here.
[00:39:15]  It is, interestingly.
[00:39:16]  I mean, I think that like, you know, obviously, I don't think it takes a genius to see that Israel launching this attack in the way they did, you know, they clearly didn't think they were going to topple the Iranian regime like overnight and were trying to goad the U.S. into war more directly, which they've been trying to do for a long time.
[00:39:43]  Yes.
[00:39:45]  You know, one thing you mentioned, like the U.S. interceptors and the planes and everything over there.
[00:39:51]  As the months have rolled by since October 7th, 2023, which is crazy.
[00:39:58]  We were so young.
[00:39:59]  I know.
[00:40:00]  We're ending up, that's going to be two years and four months.
[00:40:05]  The U.S. has steadily sort of increased our, I guess you could say, if you're being tricky with it, which I guess we are, defensive assets sort of ringing Israel, which like, okay, yeah, can provide sort of backup to Israeli, you know, missile defense systems.
[00:40:21]  And we did that.
[00:40:22]  Like when Iran has like during Operation True Promise 1 and 2, like when they launched a bunch of shit at Israel, the U.S. helps Israel shoot it down.
[00:40:31]  But it also gets the added bonus is if anything is launched at those U.S. troops, it becomes almost like off-limits anti-air assets and missile assets that Israel has access to.
[00:40:45]  But Iran is not allowed to hit because that would draw a third partner, draw a third partner into the conflict.
[00:40:52]  Yeah, I mean, it's like the reality is that when people talk about quote-unquote U.S. involvement and whether or not the U.S. is going to get involved, which we will probably say in many ways throughout this episode, but I do want to say, even though I won't say it every time, that like the reality of U.S. involvement is really a matter of degree, right?
[00:41:11]  That we're talking about because the U.S. is already involved.
[00:41:13]  You know what I mean?
[00:41:14]  Like when the first Israeli attack was happening, the U.S. Navy was assisting Israel in shooting down missiles.
[00:41:21]  Yes.
[00:41:21]  And Iraq, which is under the control of the U.S., closed its airspace to Iranian fighter jets.
[00:41:27]  So, you know, I mean, there was also the point, I mean, fucking Trump, when he came out and he was like, oh, yeah, I knew about all of it.
[00:41:34]  I know about all.
[00:41:34]  I knew everything.
[00:41:35]  Yeah.
[00:41:36]  It's like, I mean, you know, he could, you know, kind of giving the game away.
[00:41:39]  So it's a little annoying, I think, when you see people in the media kind of playing along and we're, you know, everyone's sort of talking about like, Israel's just, you know, they're just doing, it's just Israel doing this.
[00:41:49]  And it's like, well, no.
[00:41:51]  Yes and no.
[00:41:52]  Yes, you know?
[00:41:53]  Yeah.
[00:41:54]  And I think that like, like you mentioned about the weapons, shipments increases and all of that, like just because it bears repeating.
[00:42:03]  Like Israel is the largest cumulative recipient of U.S. aid by a lot, by a lot, a lot.
[00:42:10]  And the U.S. gives Israel money to buy weapons from the U.S.
[00:42:14]  Yes.
[00:42:14]  And another way of thinking about this is that the U.S. launders payments to private military producers by running them through Israel to maintain control over strategic areas in the region.
[00:42:25]  Yes.
[00:42:26]  So like when we say the U.S. is not involved or not involved, it's like, yes, but no.
[00:42:32]  Well, the U.S. is, I mean, with all of those like naval and air and ground assets that we have deployed out there and the already existing ones that were out there, like the U.S. is involved.
[00:42:45]  You know what I mean?
[00:42:46]  Like if you, if I, if you're shooting a missile at another guy and I shoot down that missile, I'm not just like a neutral guy.
[00:42:51]  I'm like, I fucking hate missiles.
[00:42:53]  I don't like to see that shit in the sky.
[00:42:54]  I want to see more Starlink up there.
[00:42:58]  You know, that's obviously you're a fucking party of the conflict.
[00:43:00]  I'm fucking chemtrail guy really like taking it out on.
[00:43:03]  It's just, it's, so, I mean, a little background on June 13th.
[00:43:07]  So for, since what?
[00:43:08]  Is it fucking either March or April?
[00:43:11]  The U.S. has been having, Steve Witkoff has been having these talks with the Iranians in Oman.
[00:43:18]  And this was part of a Trump initiative to denuclearize Iran.
[00:43:27]  And we'll get to why that's so funny.
[00:43:29]  Step one.
[00:43:29]  Step one in the grand plan.
[00:43:32]  But he has been sending his envoy Witkoff out there.
[00:43:37]  I'm a little skeptical of a lot of this stuff.
[00:43:41]  I mean, there's kind of two sides to this.
[00:43:43]  There's people saying that like, oh, Trump was doing this shit.
[00:43:47]  He was meet with the Iranians.
[00:43:49]  And then BB basically did October 7th on Iran, which like if you view October 7th as a way to like, you know, kind of like change the dynamic of the Middle East and fuck up the Abraham Accord shit and prevent normalization, you could see the June 13th Operation Rising Lion against Iran as sort of Israel's version of that, of being like, we don't like this diplomacy.
[00:44:13]  We're ending it.
[00:44:14]  I think that could be, that, that makes sense.
[00:44:16]  I think it also is very similar to what Ukraine just pulled during talks that Russia was having with the U.S.
[00:44:24]  So, yes.
[00:44:24]  And so kind of what maybe, because that was, you're talking about like the big drone attack within Russia.
[00:44:29]  Yeah.
[00:44:31]  I want to, well, maybe we'll talk about that a little bit later more specifically.
[00:44:34]  But I think just when you look at like, oh, there were these diplomatic discussions happening between the United States and Iran or United States and Russia in trying to kind of, you know, get to some sort of truce, given the respective situations.
[00:44:49]  And then, oh, the third party comes in and just like blows it all up with a really, you know, like fantastic and crazy strike, almost theatrical.
[00:45:01]  And, oh, whoops.
[00:45:02]  Like both of those third parties happen to be also very close to the United States.
[00:45:07]  Yeah.
[00:45:07]  I mean, so there's the other way of looking at it is that, I mean, similar to Witkoff's ceasefire negotiations with Hamas, right?
[00:45:16]  Right.
[00:45:16]  Where it's like these were these sort of bilateral things that kind of cut Israel out a little bit.
[00:45:21]  Well, I guess that less so.
[00:45:23]  But like in this sense, you're supposed to get the sense that like, oh, Witkoff and Iran are having these meetings.
[00:45:31]  Israel is not invited to Oman.
[00:45:33]  And I'm sure they had nobody there.
[00:45:34]  Yeah, they had nobody there.
[00:45:35]  They had nobody there.
[00:45:36]  They had no idea what was going on.
[00:45:37]  They didn't even know what was happening.
[00:45:41]  But those were a ruse in order to basically delay until the Israelis could get assets in place to do this.
[00:45:51]  Because they seemingly, I mean, Iran is, you know, I do not think I'm buying into Israeli propaganda by saying this.
[00:45:58]  Iran is thoroughly penetrated by the Israelis.
[00:46:04]  Yes.
[00:46:04]  I mean, it is just like, it is crazy.
[00:46:09]  Like they, they, I mean, they, with the assassinations of uh, Ismail Haniya there, with, I mean, just how accurate some of the intelligence was for them to like get these generals and scientists and stuff.
[00:46:21]  Like, it's very clear that they got somebody like probably pretty fucking high-ranking there, uh, mixed with, I'm sure, all kinds of crazy electronic stuff.
[00:46:30]  So, there is like, there's two sides.
[00:46:32]  There's like one is that the U.S. was kind of like either blindsided by this or was earnestly undertaking these negotiations.
[00:46:39]  And when the negotiations were petering out, gave Iran the green light, or they were the entire thing was a ruse and the U.S. has sort of been in it all along.
[00:46:50]  I'm a little more, and I guess those are also both.
[00:46:53]  I mean, there's like no different variations get made, and we just don't know.
[00:46:57]  Like, anything that we're going to say here is just be guessing.
[00:47:00]  I'm guessing that some people definitely knew about people knew about these plans.
[00:47:04]  I think Trump knew about these plans, absolutely.
[00:47:06]  And I think that there's American intelligence sharing.
[00:47:09]  I mean, I think there is obviously a lot of like target kind of like in Ukraine.
[00:47:15]  I'm sure a lot of sort of target analysis in the world.
[00:47:17]  Well, I mean, CIA is running everything in Ukraine.
[00:47:21]  Well, yeah, and you know, Israel is a little ahead of Ukraine when it comes to that stuff.
[00:47:25]  But the, you know, it's just, we just don't know, but we do know that there were some sort of talks.
[00:47:32]  And I think Israel actually killed one of the guys involved in the talks on the Iranian side, obviously not on the American side.
[00:47:39]  And the sort of last round of talks were, I don't know, the final, but there was supposed to be another round of talks on the weekend where after these strikes took place, which, as you can imagine, were canceled.
[00:47:52]  So it's funny to think of like Trump trying to basically sign a nuclear deal with Iran when Trump tore up the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA, which was the nuclear deal with Iran.
[00:48:07]  No.
[00:48:07]  Can I just confess something?
[00:48:09]  What?
[00:48:09]  Every time I read JCPOA, I think JDPON.
[00:48:14]  Yeah.
[00:48:14]  Just the way that the letters are arrayed, what I'm used to reading, that's what I see.
[00:48:20]  And I think we can all agree here that if we had, or when we have JDPON, we won't need things like this.
[00:48:31]  In fact, there's going to be a lot less or a lot more nuclear weapons.
[00:48:36]  I also am so used to seeing POA point of attack that it just like.
[00:48:40]  Sorry.
[00:48:41]  Well, I'm not going to get into the entire history of Iran attempting to build a nuclear bomb or just like nuclear shit in Iran in general.
[00:48:49]  It started with the Shah, eventually picked up by the Islamic Republic after the revolution, especially kind of like kept took up speed after the U.S.-backed Iraqi attack on Iran, where they used a bunch of chemical weapons, et cetera, et cetera.

=== You've Seen That Picture Before (06:41) ===

[00:49:08]  And officially, they put a halt to it in 2003.
[00:49:13]  Maybe 2007.
[00:49:14]  It's like, you know, officially they put a halt to it.
[00:49:16]  Officially, like by, you know, according to international records, we'll say.
[00:49:21]  Yeah.
[00:49:22]  As a little aside, the first time, and, you know, I'm sure many of our listeners know this.
[00:49:27]  But it does bear repeating.
[00:49:28]  The first time Benjamin Netanyahu has spoken about Iran getting nukes or spoke about Iran getting nukes was in 1993 in the Knesset.
[00:49:39]  And he gave that timeframe as within three to five years, which would be in 96?
[00:49:45]  Could you imagine how sick the 90s would have been if Ibran had a nuclear bomb in 1996, dude?
[00:49:51]  Totally would have been, there would be no 9-11, I'll say that.
[00:49:55]  He famously presented a chart before Congress prior to the Iraq war in 2002, showing that Iran and Iraq were making WMDs, which is just so insane to look back upon.
[00:50:07]  Like this guy is in American Congress being like, yeah, there's Iraqi guys.
[00:50:11]  They have, they have.
[00:50:13]  Can I do it, Netanyahu?
[00:50:14]  They have, they have.
[00:50:16]  No, I can't do it.
[00:50:17]  It's close.
[00:50:18]  I think it's good.
[00:50:19]  Let me.
[00:50:21]  Wait, it's going a little.
[00:50:22]  Sarah.
[00:50:23]  Sarah.
[00:50:25]  Sherman?
[00:50:26]  No, his wife.
[00:50:28]  He's married to Sarah Sherman?
[00:50:29]  He's married to Sarah Sherman.
[00:50:32]  There's also a, I mean, he said it.
[00:50:34]  He's warned about it so many times.
[00:50:35]  There's a 2009 WikiLeaks cable of him warning about something similar to like a visiting group of congressmen, which is also, I found out while looking at that, I didn't know Tim Waltz met Bashar al-Assad in 2009.
[00:50:49]  Oh, it's a shame they didn't mention that during the election.
[00:50:52]  He did give an interview about it in 2013.
[00:50:54]  Sort of a waltz for Bashar.
[00:50:56]  Yeah, yeah.
[00:50:57]  He went to Damascus and he claims, Tim Waltz claims this, that one of Assad's guards started whistling the Imperial March from Star Wars while marching him to meet Bashar.
[00:51:10]  I which is.
[00:51:11]  I could believe it.
[00:51:13]  Yeah, I could believe that.
[00:51:14]  That's good.
[00:51:15]  I was like a Praetorian guard in that way.
[00:51:18]  I would sometimes kind of just point my gun at whoever was visiting and be like, I'm just playing.
[00:51:22]  You know what I mean?
[00:51:23]  Yeah, just keep them on their toes.
[00:51:23]  Because no, you freak them out more, and then you show, I'm just playing.
[00:51:28]  So they know that you're, this actually works out.
[00:51:30]  But that's how you also get them to, you know, the defenses go down.
[00:51:33]  Yeah, I mean, don't do this at school, but you can do this like on dates and at various stores or whatever.
[00:51:41]  There is, of course, 2012, the famous picture of him with the bomb at the UN.
[00:51:45]  You know what I'm saying?
[00:51:46]  You've seen that picture before.
[00:51:47]  It's always in the articles where he's got like the little fucking Looney Tunes bomb.
[00:51:51]  He's like, Iran is right here.
[00:51:53]  And they're going to fucking, it looks like.
[00:51:55]  Just decades of them being just around the corner.
[00:51:57]  They're just, they're days away.
[00:51:59]  They're weeks and months away.
[00:52:01]  It's like those YouTube channels that are like, China is collapsing or whatever.
[00:52:06]  It's always just about to happen.
[00:52:09]  So this is actually from the WikiLeaks cable.
[00:52:10]  And tell me if any of this stuff sounds familiar.
[00:52:12]  This is from 2009.
[00:52:14]  So Representative Israel, that is a guy whose last name is Israel, by the way.
[00:52:18]  Really?
[00:52:18]  Yes.
[00:52:19]  Representative Israel asked Netanyahu about the timetable for Iran to achieve a nuclear weapon.
[00:52:23]  Netanyahu responded that Iran has the capability now to make one bomb now, which is, I guess.
[00:52:30]  So 2009.
[00:52:31]  So 2009.
[00:52:32]  Or they could wait and make several bombs in a year or two.
[00:52:36]  Oh, what a decision, Trigger.
[00:52:38]  It's a marshmallow test.
[00:52:39]  I know.
[00:52:39]  He also said it was important to bear in mind that the Iranian regime was exposed as a fraud during the presidential elections and that the Iranian people detest the regime and have shown great courage in the streets.
[00:52:50]  Man, you hear that one a lot, don't you?
[00:52:51]  No, don't you?
[00:52:54]  But yeah, I mean, the JCPOA, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, was signed by the permanent members of the UN Security Council plus the EU with Iran in 2015.
[00:53:04]  And this was supposed to essentially slow the time that it would take Iran to get a nuclear bomb, like, or rather to enrich enough uranium in order to have enough material to make a nuclear bomb.
[00:53:15]  You know, it limited the enrichment.
[00:53:17]  It mandated all these inspections, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
[00:53:20]  This was heralded as a big-ass achievement.
[00:53:22]  Yeah, it was like this and the ACA were like Obama's things.
[00:53:25]  Yeah, everybody loves it.
[00:53:26]  Like, oh, Obama fucking, you know, he met with the Irish.
[00:53:29]  It took a really long time, to be fair.
[00:53:32]  They like started look, like trying, started this process in like 2011.
[00:53:37]  Yeah.
[00:53:38]  It was like long.
[00:53:38]  It was a long process.
[00:53:40]  I mean, I'm going to be honest with you.
[00:53:41]  If it was me who was building a nuclear bomb, I'd be like, I recently was diagnosed with a non-fatal form of cancer that does require extensive treatments.
[00:53:52]  So we can't meet for another two years.
[00:53:55]  And then after that, I'd be like, the radiation fucked me up.
[00:53:58]  Well, the reason they signed it was for sanctions relief.
[00:54:00]  Yes.
[00:54:01]  And they really did want that.
[00:54:03]  Yeah.
[00:54:03]  I mean, that was the thing.
[00:54:05]  I mean, I was against it because I think Iran should have a nuclear bomb.
[00:54:08]  But I understand why they signed it because they have been fucking sanctioned to hell and back for a very long time.
[00:54:15]  Yeah.
[00:54:15]  So part of the JCPOA, tough for me to say that, was to shut down Fordo, which is coming up a lot in all the discussions about this new war between Iran and Iraq.
[00:54:31]  So back in 81, Israel bombed one of Iraq's nuclear facilities, which was above ground.
[00:54:37]  And basically, since then, everyone was like, damn, got to put them underground.
[00:54:40]  You got to put this shit under the earth.
[00:54:41]  Now they go underground.
[00:54:42]  So Fordo, which is allegedly the big nuclear site, was built into the side of a mountain, which is fucking sick as hell.
[00:54:51]  Well, we have one of those.
[00:54:52]  I know, but I'm still saying it's fucking cool.
[00:54:55]  Yeah.
[00:54:55]  And you know what?
[00:54:56]  And I'll say this further.
[00:54:59]  If you are a country who has both mountains and the means, you got to start building some shit in there.
[00:55:05]  Your main command base should be underneath your biggest mountain.
[00:55:09]  Yes.
[00:55:09]  And, you know, all different kinds of things.
[00:55:12]  Caves, tunnels, like little homes on the side, little mountain homes.
[00:55:18]  You could do it all.
[00:55:19]  Yeah, yeah, agreed.
[00:55:21]  So Fordo is built in the side of the mountain in the northwest of Iran.
[00:55:25]  Side note: Iran is way bigger than even you think it is.
[00:55:28]  I'm just throwing that out there.
[00:55:29]  Yeah.
[00:55:29]  It's a very, very big country, which makes difficult comparisons, which we'll kind of talk about here a little later on.
[00:55:36]  But Fordo was originally a military site.
[00:55:38]  They converted it to a nuclear development facility.
[00:55:41]  And then once the U.S. found out about it, Iran came clean to the IAEA, which is the International Atomic Energy Administration.

=== Obama's Iran Freeze (09:39) ===

[00:55:49]  I don't know what the last one is.
[00:55:52]  So they said they came out and they were like, okay, we stopped production at Fordo during all of those negotiations with Barack Hussein Obama.
[00:56:00]  And we're now like going to dilute the enriched uranium stockpile.
[00:56:03]  And that was like part of the kind of agreement.
[00:56:06]  And they said, okay, there's no more enrichment at Fordo.
[00:56:09]  I really like saying that.
[00:56:12]  That's just where we do, you know, civilian development.
[00:56:15]  And so there's a lot of civilian nuclear development that has been happening in Iran since.
[00:56:20]  And famously, like there's a bunch of Russian scientists there.
[00:56:23]  And there's like, I think, some Chinese, like kind of helping them with the civilian part of that, you know, whole process.
[00:56:31]  And yeah, again, all of this was in return for lifting sanctions.
[00:56:37]  Yes.
[00:56:38]  I mean, also, remember the whole thing about like Obama paying Iran?
[00:56:41]  No.
[00:56:42]  Well, that's like, was it a thing?
[00:56:43]  It was a big thing, Liz.
[00:56:45]  You don't understand.
[00:56:45]  Because I've been a conservative, for those who don't know my background, I was a conservative campus activist from 2008 to 2023.
[00:56:54]  Yeah.
[00:56:55]  Because of Israel.
[00:56:56]  Because of Israel.
[00:56:57]  And I just also kept failing certain classes, and there were some allegations that were dealt with, but obviously that takes a long time to work itself out.
[00:57:06]  But the like Republican sort of angle on the JCPOA is that Obama, Obama, the Muslim, the Muslim Obama, who's both Sunni and Shia, he paid them American tax dollars.
[00:57:25]  He took money from what fucking people say American tax dollars.
[00:57:28]  Obama took money from you and you and you, from hardworking American families and gave it to the mullahs.
[00:57:34]  Well, it's a fucking brotherhood.
[00:57:36]  What do they think?
[00:57:36]  Exactly.
[00:57:37]  Well, they exactly.
[00:57:38]  Yeah, yeah, yeah.
[00:57:40]  The reality is what happened is they just unfroze a bunch of frozen Iranian assets and accounts that the U.S. froze because of our unprecedented control over the global financial system.
[00:57:55]  And the other big thing was that he gave them pallets of cash.
[00:58:00]  I really like how creative the conservatives are with some of this stuff.
[00:58:03]  So he did give them pallets of cash, which is ball.
[00:58:06]  Can you imagine how good it must have felt to be the guy on the tarmac?
[00:58:10]  What about the guy who got to cut the dollars and then put them on the pallet?
[00:58:15]  I feel like that would have, and there's probably some really cool machines.
[00:58:18]  I'd be like, you know what, Obama?
[00:58:19]  Small bills.
[00:58:20]  Put them in a sack.
[00:58:21]  Small bills.
[00:58:22]  Yeah.
[00:58:22]  Put them in sacks and small bills.
[00:58:25]  Like Santa.
[00:58:25]  And don't put any of those fucking, don't put any of those fucking things that explode with the ink on them either.
[00:58:29]  I want clean bills never used by your vice president's son to snort ketamine, you know.
[00:58:37]  But he did give them $400 million.
[00:58:40]  But the reality is, is the U.S., so back when the Shah was in.
[00:58:45]  Oh, when we froze all the assets.
[00:58:46]  1970.
[00:58:47]  No, no, no.
[00:58:48]  We froze all the assets in like 19, whatever, 79, 80.
[00:58:51]  Yeah.
[00:58:51]  But in 1970, the Shah was like, I need some guns.
[00:58:56]  The U.S. is like, you're going to buy it from us.
[00:58:58]  The Shah pays the U.S. $400 million, doesn't get the guns, and then doesn't get the $400 million.
[00:59:05]  Obviously, certain guns did go to Iran from the U.S. at later points or in other administrations.
[00:59:12]  So if, you know, you might call it a wash in some ways.
[00:59:15]  But that has actually been in international court for like decades, I think.
[00:59:20]  Iran does take things to international court.
[00:59:22]  They do.
[00:59:22]  They do.
[00:59:23]  They try.
[00:59:23]  They try at least.
[00:59:26]  And the U.S., Obama was like, we're going to lose this case.
[00:59:28]  Who knows if this is actually true?
[00:59:30]  If I'm Obama, I'm just like, let's just fucking pay him the 400 mil.
[00:59:32]  So they signed this deal.
[00:59:34]  Well, you might be Obama because they did it.
[00:59:36]  They did.
[00:59:37]  They did.
[00:59:38]  Well, in his, the reason he said that they did that was because the Iranians are about to get a bunch of interest on that.
[00:59:45]  What's going to be like $1.8 billion.
[00:59:47]  Yeah, ZERP, bro.
[00:59:48]  I know.
[00:59:49]  But he was like, you know what?
[00:59:50]  We'll just cut them a deal.
[00:59:51]  We'll give him the $400 million we owed him.
[00:59:52]  Initially, no interest.
[00:59:53]  You know what, though?
[00:59:54]  This is the foresight of America's number one president because imagine how much they would have had to pay the Iranians now after Joe Brandon's inflation got a hold.
[01:00:07]  If I'm Iran, I'm pissed that you missed out on the interest.
[01:00:10]  Exactly.
[01:00:11]  Yeah, you should have waited until the Fed rest.
[01:00:14]  Until the Fed, yes.
[01:00:17]  Anyways, Trump is in office in 2018.
[01:00:20]  So that deal signed in 2015.
[01:00:21]  Trump gets into office and withdraws from the JCPOA in 2018.
[01:00:29]  Yeah.
[01:00:30]  So he's like, we're done with this fucking deal.
[01:00:32]  And Netanyahu, who has somehow kind of been prime minister during all of this.
[01:00:38]  And then also like for a long time before.
[01:00:41]  Yes.
[01:00:42]  He actually takes credit for this.
[01:00:44]  This is a Times of Israel headline from 2018, July 2018.
[01:00:48]  In recording, Netanyahu boasts Israel convinced Trump to quit Iran's nuclear deal.
[01:00:53]  And sure enough, the article has him telling a group of Likud activists that Israel convinced Trump to drop it.
[01:01:01]  Indeed, part of the reason, the rationale that Trump even gave was that there was an alleged Mossad raid.
[01:01:09]  A lot about this is still fairly, well, let's say heavily propagandized and like murky in terms of what actually was produced from this.
[01:01:18]  But I'm pretty sure a raid did happen.
[01:01:20]  There was a big raid on a warehouse in, I believe, Tehran that took 6.5 hours, six and a half hours in non-military time, of like tens of thousands of binders of documents and CDs.
[01:01:33]  Binders of I know, I know, every woman in Iran, and they gave them straight to Romney.
[01:01:39]  That's a little throwback joke for you.
[01:01:41]  Oh, you were talking about Obama before.
[01:01:43]  But all of these documents that were basically that proved that Iran had not canceled its nuclear program.
[01:01:50]  So kind of my question here is like, you know, this raid happens in 2018.
[01:01:55]  The JCPOA is signed in 2015.
[01:01:57]  So for the next three years, where they're like, all right, we have this warehouse.
[01:02:02]  So when we make documents that say that we're lying about meeting, you know, the terms of the JCPOA, don't keep the documents in the base.
[01:02:12]  Send the documents to this warehouse so we can keep them all in one place.
[01:02:15]  That doesn't make any sense.
[01:02:16]  It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
[01:02:18]  You know, he goes on TV, shows off the documents, he shows off the CDs.
[01:02:21]  I think they produce a few things, and then the rest of it is, of course, classified.
[01:02:26]  But it's supposed to be like, okay, well, we know that Iran never discontinued its nuclear program and that they're still working on one and Israel found out.
[01:02:34]  So this was also part of Trump's reasoning that we should abandon the JCPOA.
[01:02:40]  It's funny, I was looking back and I read sort of the White House press release on this.
[01:02:44]  And Trump's statement says, United States withdrawal from the JCPOA will pressure the Iranian regime to alter its course of malign activities and ensure that Iranian bad acts are no longer rewarded.
[01:02:57]  As a result, both Iran and its regional proxies will be put on notice.
[01:03:02]  As importantly, this step will help ensure global funds stop flowing towards illicit terrorist and nuclear activities.
[01:03:10]  Yeah, I mean, so a year later, a year after this, Trump designated the IRGC as a terrorist group, which we should mention because it is the first time that the U.S. designated a part of another country's government as an FTO, which is sort of like a big, like kind of a big break.
[01:03:30]  At the time, Netanyahu tweeted out that he personally requested the move again, which is just very the guy between both Trump and Netanyahu just love talking.
[01:03:43]  Well, all right.
[01:03:44]  Also, I just want to explain to anyone who's like, what's the IRGC?
[01:03:47]  I mean, I would assume that most listeners, some listeners know what the IRGC is.
[01:03:51]  That is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
[01:03:54]  And that is, it's a sort of, I'm trying to sort of struggling to think of like a sort of what I can compare it to, but it's basically, it's like a branch of the Iranian armed forces that within itself also has multiple branches of like aerospace.
[01:04:08]  That's where like they have most of the missiles.
[01:04:10]  Yeah.
[01:04:11]  I think they have a small naval component that's like mostly sort of fast boats, armed forces, special forces, but they also have like a giant economic arm to them as well, which in fact I kind of think has fucked them up in some ways and definitely left them more open to penetration.
[01:04:28]  But they exist alongside the regular army, navy, and air force.
[01:04:33]  And intelligence.
[01:04:34]  And intelligence.
[01:04:35]  Yeah.
[01:04:35]  Yeah.
[01:04:35]  So it's, it is, it's like not, it, you, I almost want to compare it to like special ops, but just because it is like a T, it's like a more specialized, but then like you say, they have all these branches underneath.
[01:04:47]  And so it's something kind of a bit bigger than that.
[01:04:50]  Yeah, like when you hear them talking about Kud's force, that's that's part of the ROGC.
[01:04:54]  So there was an unannounced inspection, I want to say, in 2023, when the IAEA, they came in, inspectors said that they found, quote, particles of uranium purified to near weapons grade purity.
[01:05:08]  This was at Fordo.
[01:05:11]  And Iran denied this.
[01:05:12]  They were like, that's not true.
[01:05:14]  We can't find it.
[01:05:14]  They even went back and they're like, we don't find any of these things you guys are talking about.
[01:05:19]  And Fordo, Fordo, kind of like hangs.
[01:05:24]  It's Tim.
[01:05:25]  It's Fordo.

=== Ted Cruz's Iran Claim (08:39) ===

[01:05:29]  But it kind of is like, you know, hanging in the balance here, I think.
[01:05:33]  It's really like the Israelis have come out and made this really like a point.
[01:05:39]  One of the, or excuse me, Israel's ambassador to the United States, Yashil Leiter, he came out and said this entire operation really has to be completed with the elimination of Fordo.
[01:05:51]  Now, theoretically, maybe there are two sets of centrifuges in Fordo that can enrich uranium.
[01:06:01]  The IAEA says that it can get up to 60%.
[01:06:05]  If they were enriching towards weapons grade, obviously that gets higher.
[01:06:09]  So the centrifuges and the like thing in this mountain would be the main targets, along with where they believe all of this is going on, which is not just in the mountain, but really, really, really, really deep below the surface.
[01:06:24]  And we'll talk about that more in a little bit.
[01:06:38]  So I think a lot of people have been kind of wondering over the past week or so, like, why am I supposed to hate Iran?
[01:06:47]  You know what I'm saying?
[01:06:48]  Like, it's funny.
[01:06:49]  Like, I think about this all the time.
[01:06:52]  There's a like.
[01:06:53]  It's funny because I think, obviously because of like the, the UM embassy, and like the hostages and all that stuff, you know 1979 1980s, uh I think there's this sort of residual kind of like hatred of Iran that definitely exists in like Gen X and boomers.
[01:07:10]  But if you're like a younger person uh, Iran has sort of just been like a country that like chicks in La are from.
[01:07:18]  You know, like it's just.
[01:07:21]  You sometimes see those memes online and you're like, damn, they had everything before the revolution.
[01:07:26]  Yeah, like they had like boobs and ass before the revolution those, those hot pants the, you know the sort of the bourgeoisie in the, in the, the capital yeah uh, definitely had it really good before the revolution.
[01:07:38]  One thing I think though, is that I don't even think that it's like hatred of Iran from Boomer.
[01:07:43]  I feel like there's like a fake fear.
[01:07:45]  There's like fear yeah, like well, they're gonna do something, they're gonna go crazy, they're gonna act crazy, and I feel like that is especially not uh, mirrored in younger generations.
[01:07:57]  Well, because there was this huge kind of character of the ayatollah back then.
[01:08:00]  Right, I was like this crazy guy with his head wrapped, and he's, he's always, and now the kids love the ayatollah's uh tweets, exactly exactly now, because he makes relatable content for teens um, but you know, there's this whole thing where it's like the Eye, the crazy ayatollah.
[01:08:15]  He hates America, you know, he's just this crazy guy.
[01:08:18]  Um, but like, if you're younger and not like super kind of ideologically plugged into certain sectors, like this would never you would kind of never really like, you'd be like why do I care?
[01:08:30]  To be honest, most Americans would be like I don't know where Iran is yeah, but you'd be like blah, blah Iran.
[01:08:34]  I'd be like gosh.
[01:08:36]  So can we wind back what is Iran and be like it's somewhere?
[01:08:40]  Yeah it's yeah um, but uh, it is just, it's so.
[01:08:44]  It's so funny because they sort of still act.
[01:08:46]  Much of the media and political environment still acts as if we're supposed to be like, fuck Iran.
[01:08:50]  But it's like why?
[01:08:52]  Yeah, you know oh, because they don't like Israel, the country that all of us hate.
[01:08:57]  But I mean, we love, we love, we love everybody on this earth.
[01:09:00]  You know, i'm saying this podcast does.
[01:09:01]  We don't take positions on anything, but it's it's, it's.
[01:09:04]  It just drives me crazy thinking about that.
[01:09:06]  So one of the sort of like last this has been building for a few years.
[01:09:10]  One of like, the rationales for why we're supposed to so really hate Iran is that they've been trying to kill Donald Trump, which is this is the first time i've heard of this.
[01:09:18]  Really, I feel like this did not stick.
[01:09:21]  No, oh no, you're right about that.
[01:09:23]  It did not stick.
[01:09:24]  So this came up in the recent sort of Tucker Uh Ted interview.
[01:09:30]  For those who don't know, Tucker Carlson went head to head with Ted Cruise, by the way, Ted That is, it was tough.
[01:09:40]  Tucker read him to Phil.
[01:09:42]  Jon Stewart snatched the fucking house down with Ted Cruz.
[01:09:46]  It was a tough talk for Ted.
[01:09:49]  It was pretty satisfying to watch.
[01:09:53]  One of the things that Tucker brings up is that, or I think maybe Ted Cruz brings it up first is like, well, Trump, you know, Iran tried to assassinate Trump.
[01:10:03]  And Tucker kind of rightfully says, like, if they, you really think that?
[01:10:07]  Like, if they actually did, like, wouldn't we like really strike back against them?
[01:10:11]  Like, wouldn't we go crazy, you know, trying to get them?
[01:10:15]  And Ted Cruz is like, well, they're not very good at it.
[01:10:17]  It's like, what?
[01:10:18]  Yeah, why does that make sense?
[01:10:19]  My favorite part was when Ted Grace was like, well, you know, my father, was his father or his grandfather?
[01:10:24]  I can't remember which.
[01:10:26]  My father escaped Castro, like torturing him.
[01:10:29]  Oh, I mean, Batista.
[01:10:31]  Yeah, he's like, oh, big slip there.
[01:10:33]  Yeah, yeah.
[01:10:34]  Very funny.
[01:10:36]  And then, of course, was his father or grandfather also helped in Dallas.
[01:10:42]  He's been everywhere.
[01:10:45]  Well, Tucker mentioned this in the interview.
[01:10:47]  Trump, I think, is mentioned a few times, but it gets mentioned sort of in Trump world sometimes, I guess, when appropriate.
[01:10:54]  A little bit of background is Donald Trump with the Israelis, we later found this was like an operation that was like both involving like IDF, Mossad, and U.S. Special Forces, assassinated General Qasim Soleimani, the Iranian general, in Iraq in 2020.
[01:11:13]  This is, as longtime listeners of the show will know, what I believe sort of spiritually started the insanity of 2020 and of course indirectly caused the COVID-19 epidemic.
[01:11:25]  Actually, directly caused it.
[01:11:27]  So Soleimani, it is, one has to understand, he was a fucking hero in Iran.
[01:11:35]  Very, like, very, he was like a very celebrity general.
[01:11:38]  People knew who he was.
[01:11:39]  I think a lot of people who maybe couldn't name a lot of Iranian generals, sort of, but sort of follow politics could probably name him.
[01:11:46]  You know, he's a big actor in the Syrian Civil War.
[01:11:49]  A lot of really decisive battles against ISIS, who, funnily enough, and obviously suspiciously enough, because when, and again, this isn't based on evidence, but it's based on one of those things that it's probably true.
[01:12:02]  ISIS bombed his funeral and killed a bunch of mourners.
[01:12:05]  And I'm assuming that maybe the hand of one or two state actors might have been involved in that.
[01:12:12]  Also, it should be mentioned, because we'll probably keep mentioning this at various points in this near history, is that that was also a really galvanizing moment for the Iranian population.
[01:12:24]  Yes.
[01:12:25]  Like when that happened, it was like, oh, this regime that we're kind of like, whatever about, we're like, we've got, you know, look, everyone's got their issues.
[01:12:35]  Was like out, not out the window, but sort of like, well, listen, this is crazy.
[01:12:39]  This is fucked up.
[01:12:40]  They just did an extra-legal assassination of our guy.
[01:12:45]  And this is, you know, we got to like, you know, all come together now.
[01:12:48]  Trump just tweeted out a big ass.
[01:12:50]  I don't know if people remember this, just a big ass American flag after that.
[01:12:53]  It was so fucked up and crazy.
[01:12:55]  Yeah, it was, it was, it was huge.
[01:12:56]  And, you know, part of, I think, the rationale for that was like, there are sort of these, I mean, Iraq, obviously not the most stable country.
[01:13:05]  How did that happen?
[01:13:07]  Since something happened a while ago with there.
[01:13:10]  But there are, especially during like the kind of civil war between ISIS and the rest of Iraq, there was like large, pretty powerful Shia militias that had Iranian backing.
[01:13:24]  There's still some.
[01:13:25]  Yeah, definitely.
[01:13:26]  Although they're very scary.
[01:13:28]  Much more bluster today than the.
[01:13:30]  But they're there.
[01:13:30]  Yeah, they're still there.
[01:13:32]  But Suleimani was sort of seen as the link to these guys.
[01:13:37]  And the U.S. and Israel took him out.
[01:13:42]  And there was sort of reciprocal attacks on like U.S. troops in places.
[01:13:46]  Like there was some shelling.
[01:13:48]  There was a bunch of people who got, you know, Havena syndrome after that.
[01:13:53]  Oh, my God.
[01:13:53]  I forgot about that.
[01:13:55]  I know.
[01:13:55]  You don't hear so much about Havena.
[01:13:56]  Imagine if the Iranians assassinated Hag Seth.
[01:14:01]  Yeah, exactly.
[01:14:03]  But like, everyone liked him.
[01:14:05]  Yeah.
[01:14:05]  And for like decades, because he was a war hero.
[01:14:07]  Yes.

=== The Era of Unchecked Violence (03:50) ===

[01:14:08]  Like, it's crazy.
[01:14:11]  By the way, it's illegal.
[01:14:13]  Absolutely.
[01:14:14]  I just want to make, like, you can't just assassinate political figures.
[01:14:17]  No.
[01:14:18]  I mean, this, because he was like a political military figure.
[01:14:21]  He was like a huge figure.
[01:14:22]  I mean, genuinely, like, this is something that I think a lot of people take for granted.
[01:14:27]  Like, the U.S. is somehow allowed to go into Iraq, a country whose government the U.S. toppled because of WMDs that were never fucking there.
[01:14:37]  That our buddy Benjamin Netanyahu, who is in Congress, telling us that they're there.
[01:14:40]  But also, our congressmen are going on TV and saying that they're there.
[01:14:43]  And Sleepy, he did his part.
[01:14:45]  And Sleepy and Hillary and all these fucking crooks and cocksuckers telling us they're there.
[01:14:50]  And Trump was for it too.
[01:14:51]  All these fucking people were for it.
[01:14:53]  We go in there, we destroy the government.
[01:14:55]  We plunge the country into decades of chaos.
[01:14:59]  And then we just kill a member of a neighboring country's government while he's officially visiting that country.
[01:15:09]  And it's supposed to just be like, well, we can, like, it's like almost occurred, it doesn't occur to people to be like, wait a minute, why is this even possible for us to do this?
[01:15:17]  How is this legal?
[01:15:18]  What kind of like world system is okay with this U.S. being able to just do these things that seemingly no other country can do.
[01:15:26]  Well, I actually have been thinking about that.
[01:15:28]  And I really do think that one of the defining features of this moment, and maybe it starts then, but like between that, and then let's jump forward to October 7th.
[01:15:40]  And I mean, and by that, I mean Israel's response to October 7th and the bombing and genocide in Gaza and also like you know, the war in Ukraine, Ukraine and Russia's invasion is that like, it's the era of like, you can just do things.
[01:15:54]  Yeah.
[01:15:55]  Like you can just do things.
[01:15:56]  Just kill them.
[01:15:57]  And we see it in the way that like war is conducted now, which we can talk about a little bit later.
[01:16:01]  But it really is just like now this is the time where you just do things and there is no repercussion.
[01:16:08]  And so, but I, but, you know, I think about that a lot because you're, I think that would sort of be the defining phrase for like much of what has gone on in this era.
[01:16:17]  But it seems the only people who have truly learned that lesson, besides one might argue, Hamas on October 7th is the bad guys.
[01:16:26]  You know what I mean?
[01:16:27]  Like it are the people that like Israel, the people like the U.S. that like, yeah, you can just like the government, you're just like, yeah, send in these guys.
[01:16:36]  Or like you can just do what we like to call precision strikes, decapitation strikes of scientists in their homes in apartment buildings.
[01:16:47]  Like to me, that and to most of the world, I would think, and to any kind of legal scholar or historian, that's terrorism.
[01:16:55]  Yeah.
[01:16:55]  And so what we see now is when I say you can just do things, like what we're talking about is just state terrorism.
[01:17:00]  Yes, yes.
[01:17:02]  I mean, it's state terror as international humanitarian law, international law in general has, let's say, taken quite a beating.
[01:17:10]  But it is like, it is a really, and I'm sorry because I keep cutting in here, but it is like a real big departure from the 20th century.
[01:17:20]  And obviously from before that, too.
[01:17:23]  But like, it is the way, and some of this I think does have to also, some of this goes into, or like has to do with the, like, the change in like weapons and like what, you know, how cheap and quick you can manufacture precision munitions or missiles or mostly drones and like the turnaround.
[01:17:47]  And it's made it so that that has enabled different tactics and then required like basically intelligence, like first and foremost.
[01:17:57]  But we'll talk, we can talk about that later.

=== Bunker Plot Unfurls (15:26) ===

[01:17:59]  Yeah.
[01:17:59]  I mean, something that kind of blows my mind that I just find so interesting is like, it's seemingly like the Palestinian, I mean, I read this, fuck, I can't remember what the book is called.
[01:18:07]  I think it's called like the globalization or something of the Palestinian something.
[01:18:12]  But it's about like the PLO's sort of like international outreach and kind of like into the world that, you know, that happened in like the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s.
[01:18:23]  It's just interesting to me now, like how confined a lot of this stuff is just to the region.
[01:18:29]  Whereas previously, like, it was kind of happening sort of everywhere.
[01:18:33]  And Israel seems to like have no compunctions that they can't, they do operate all over.
[01:18:40]  Whereas the sort of members of the Axis of Resistance, for whatever reasons, mostly seem to be confined to actually like the areas that they're from.
[01:18:48]  You know, I just, I have no great, you know, reasoning as to why that's happening, but it just, it's an interesting thing that I noticed there.
[01:18:59]  Regardless, you know, so 2020 kills Soleimani.
[01:19:03]  Iran files like charges against Trump and Pompeo and John Bolton.
[01:19:07]  I think 93 people in total.
[01:19:10]  They file a red notice with Interpol to arrest Trump.
[01:19:12]  Interpol, of course, rejected it.
[01:19:14]  They file another one.
[01:19:15]  Interpol rejects that as well.
[01:19:18]  Iranian lawmakers tried for several years to get kind of any sort of legal recourse for the assassination of one of their top generals.
[01:19:25]  That was denied to them.
[01:19:27]  That was just like, they kind of laughed about that because it's assumed, it's assumed by like the international media that like, oh, because it's an Iranian general that it happened to, I guess, like, oh, he's a bad guy.
[01:19:38]  And that means he's not subject to any sort of like international law, anything like that.
[01:19:42]  It's just out the window.
[01:19:43]  The U.S. did it, so it's different.
[01:19:46]  Irani, Iranian, like the Iranian response to this, it's funny.
[01:19:51]  Like, you'd think from reading kind of a lot of what the U.S. says that they were like, we are going to kill Donald Trump now.
[01:19:58]  But again, it took like a very legalistic route for quite a long time.
[01:20:02]  You have to.
[01:20:03]  You have to check all the boxes.
[01:20:05]  Yeah.
[01:20:06]  The first attempt to get, and I'm putting some finger quotes or air quotes around that, comes in 2022 when the U.S. DOJ puts out an arrest warrant for a murder for hire plot with what they say is a uniformed IRGC member from Iran, a man named Shahram Pursafi, who is allegedly going to kill John Bolton.
[01:20:33]  So what I, you know, I haven't done the craziest.
[01:20:37]  I read, I read the indictment.
[01:20:39]  I read a couple articles about it that seemed to have more information that was like clearly leaked by law, or excuse me, by DOJ.
[01:20:46]  What seems like happened was a confidential informant, which is 100% just like an FBI or CIA guy on a laptop, found some guy in Iran to talk to him over some messaging service.
[01:21:00]  And they kind of embark on this Zani plot together.
[01:21:06]  Basically, it's like how a lot of kind of terrorism happens, which is like a CI, a confidential informant, kind of just gets someone to be like, Hey, give me, offer me $50,000 and I'll kill someone you want to kill.
[01:21:18]  And then the guy's like, Okay.
[01:21:20]  And then it's a huge terror plot.
[01:21:23]  There's no indication that there was like this.
[01:21:25]  I don't know if this guy was seeking anyone out.
[01:21:27]  Like, all we're getting here is basically the DOJ's sort of very weird, shaky case against a guy that, by the way, is in Iran.
[01:21:34]  This guy is like not arrested or anything.
[01:21:36]  This is just a guy there.
[01:21:37]  And the way that they found out he's in the IRGC is because they say they found a Facebook account that has his name with pictures of a guy in an IRGC uniform in there.
[01:21:47]  Now, I looked, and again, you know, I got a little too sucked into this.
[01:21:52]  So maybe if I'd looked for another hour, I could have found one.
[01:21:55]  There's no indication of what rank he is, of where he is in the IRGC.
[01:21:59]  There's a lot of people in the IRGC.
[01:22:01]  I don't know what branch he's in.
[01:22:03]  He's just somebody they say these in the IRGC was going to give some money to kill John Bolton and a second guy, which is either Trump or Pompeo.
[01:22:15]  Now, there's been, I think, two or three more.
[01:22:18]  The one that got the biggest notice was a plot from a guy named Asif Raza Merchant, Jewish last name, who is a Pakistani guy who came to the U.S. and immediately, and it's very unclear how this happened.
[01:22:32]  It's not spelled out in the documents.
[01:22:34]  And I did read quite a long government document on this.
[01:22:39]  He gets involved with an informant who he somehow knows from some business thing or something.
[01:22:44]  It's weird.
[01:22:44]  He's like from a merchant family in Pakistan.
[01:22:47]  It's unclear of like Pakistan.
[01:22:48]  In Pakistan.
[01:22:49]  Yeah.
[01:22:49]  Listen, I'm saying Iran the whole time.
[01:22:51]  I'm saying Pakistan.
[01:22:53]  He's from a merchant family.
[01:22:54]  I like Pakistan.
[01:22:55]  I like saying Pakistan.
[01:22:57]  It's got good mouthfeel.
[01:22:58]  I'm just going to say saying Pakistan feels fucking good.
[01:23:00]  Say it.
[01:23:01]  Pakistan.
[01:23:02]  No.
[01:23:03]  What?
[01:23:04]  Say it.
[01:23:05]  Not with the accent, bro.
[01:23:06]  Pakistan.
[01:23:11]  It's like a little, it's like a sort of mid-Atlantic.
[01:23:13]  Pakistan.
[01:23:15]  So he's from Pakistan.
[01:23:16]  So merchants from Pakistan.
[01:23:18]  He comes over here and he's like talking to his buddy, who, by the way, is a fucking rat.
[01:23:23]  And it's like, I go to Iran a lot.
[01:23:28]  I kind of want to assassinate somebody.
[01:23:31]  And the CI is like, that's fucking cool.
[01:23:34]  They drive around New York to find nightclubs to meet hitmen at.
[01:23:43]  I think they got it confused because probably one of them was trying, like, there's lost in translation because one of them is trying to say hit on men.
[01:23:49]  Yeah.
[01:23:50]  And they thought, like, and then a whole plot got like a funny.
[01:23:54]  I know these biker guys I can introduce you to.
[01:23:57]  He's like, so our guys here, we got it.
[01:23:59]  We have a we have a guy in an Indian headdress.
[01:24:02]  We've got a construction worker.
[01:24:06]  That's how Trump got actually that.
[01:24:09]  Oh my God, you're right.
[01:24:10]  That's how you could grow it.
[01:24:11]  Literally putting together all the red strings on the board.
[01:24:13]  Wow.
[01:24:15]  But I mean, can you imagine like driving around nightclubs looking for a hitman?
[01:24:20]  That would be so fucking crazy if a member of the YMCA shot Trump.
[01:24:25]  Sorry.
[01:24:25]  That would be playing that out.
[01:24:27]  We disavow.
[01:24:28]  We disavow.
[01:24:29]  But if there was like a guy placed, and then they're like, that's not the real guy.
[01:24:33]  That's not the real sexy cop.
[01:24:35]  Yeah, yeah, yeah.
[01:24:37]  He is a real guy.
[01:24:39]  But imagine like going into like, I don't know what I've never been to really a nightclub much, you know, in New York.
[01:24:47]  I don't know what they like.
[01:24:50]  Yeah.
[01:24:50]  I thought it was just like coked out like fucking finance dudes.
[01:24:54]  And like.
[01:24:54]  It probably is.
[01:24:55]  Yeah.
[01:24:56]  But also, who knows where they were going?
[01:24:57]  Exactly.
[01:24:58]  But I'm like, when you try to tears, I mean, when are you trying to find like an Armenian?
[01:25:02]  That could have been what they were looking at.
[01:25:04]  We need to find it driving around New York looking for an Armenians.
[01:25:08]  No, they're looking for Armenian clubs.
[01:25:09]  Oh, God.
[01:25:10]  I mean, they're probably cool.
[01:25:11]  I like Armenians.
[01:25:12]  I'm just, and for those listening, like, I love Armenian.
[01:25:14]  I love everybody, but you know what I'm saying?
[01:25:16]  Like, I'm not going to an Armenian nightclub.
[01:25:19]  I'm scared.
[01:25:20]  So I guess they kind of formulate some sort of plan.
[01:25:23]  It's really unclear.
[01:25:25]  The trial hasn't, I don't think he's even started yet.
[01:25:29]  But there's some plan to kill somebody, maybe Trump.
[01:25:35]  You know, Merchant apparently goes and scouts out a Trump rally according to documents leaked by 1,000,000-year-old Senator Chuck Grassley's office, but were later taken down.
[01:25:49]  And who the lawyer of Merchant says were fake.
[01:25:52]  He's like, my client's not cooperating, so I don't know where they would have gotten this from.
[01:25:57]  But it's like a kind of classic, like, is this guy like he's directed for the IRGC?
[01:26:03]  There's no proof of this.
[01:26:04]  Like, there hasn't been a trial yet.
[01:26:05]  They should have started pushing that Thomas Crooks was Iranian.
[01:26:10]  I think that was floated a little bit.
[01:26:11]  Come on.
[01:26:12]  It was floated a little bit.
[01:26:13]  Come on.
[01:26:15]  But this is like, it was kind of muted responses to these because it was like, they're pretty tenuous.
[01:26:20]  So muted.
[01:26:21]  I didn't really know about it.
[01:26:22]  Exactly.
[01:26:22]  So it was supposed to think like this, someone trying to kill Donald Trump, the guy that a lot of people hate and get a nuclear weapon are like supposed to be the reasons we're like really fucking pissed off and ready to rock and back our great friend Israel to the hilt.
[01:26:40]  So where are we now?
[01:26:41]  Where's the U.S. now?
[01:26:42]  Now I would say we are to Libtart out a little bit, we're testing the limit of taco.
[01:26:48]  This is the, we're seeing now the real limit of taco potentially.
[01:26:54]  Trump came out, was it yesterday?
[01:26:56]  And he was like, I'm going to give it two weeks.
[01:26:59]  Yeah.
[01:27:00]  So now we're in the two-week wait.
[01:27:02]  I feel like if it was up to Trump, he would have a like LeBron style a decision TV event, like Sunday night, prime time, where he's like, I will now unveil my decision of whether or not to nuke Iran.
[01:27:15]  And I still am not, I would not be surprised if we get some sort of something like that.
[01:27:20]  But the focus, they keep saying the focus is on the nuclear facilities.
[01:27:25]  That's what they keep saying, including Iran.
[01:27:28]  I mean, including Israel.
[01:27:29]  But then sometimes Israel lets it slip as they want to do that also the objective is regime change.
[01:27:35]  Yeah, there's been like, I will say the messaging on this has been a little all over the place.
[01:27:40]  Yeah.
[01:27:40]  Because sometimes we're saying, oh, we're just preventing them from getting a nuke.
[01:27:43]  And then sometimes they'll be like, we need regime change.
[01:27:45]  Yes.
[01:27:46]  I mean, that's clearly the objective.
[01:27:48]  We see that from, yes, but we see that from like U.S. and Israel.
[01:27:52]  No one can keep their story straight.
[01:27:53]  This whole thing is so chaotic.
[01:27:56]  I will say that, you know, the neocons have wanted regime change in Iran forever.
[01:28:01]  That's always been on the list.
[01:28:05]  It was always going to be the next one.
[01:28:07]  And the facilities or the assassinations or whatever it is are just the pretext.
[01:28:12]  So Israel has already hit the ARK, A-R-A-K nuclear reactor, and Natan's, which is another kind of nuclear site.
[01:28:21]  They are now full court demanding that the U.S. join in, bring out the literal big guns, the big, big guns, which is the bunker buster, which I want to say true and on house style, even though you can say, since you can say a word and a name any way you like, I just want to say that on record, we're going to call them bunker busters.
[01:28:44]  I'm going to call them bunker buster.
[01:28:45]  No, come on, bunker.
[01:28:46]  That's more of a you thing.
[01:28:47]  I'll say bunker.
[01:28:48]  No, it's German.
[01:28:49]  Bunker.
[01:28:49]  Bunker?
[01:28:50]  Because it's a German word.
[01:28:51]  Bunker, but I sound Mexican when I say it.
[01:28:53]  No, bunker.
[01:28:54]  Bunker buster.
[01:28:55]  Oh, bunker.
[01:28:59]  No, it's not bunker.
[01:29:00]  It's bunker.
[01:29:01]  Bunker buster.
[01:29:03]  Anyway, we're talking about the GBU5757, GBU57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator.
[01:29:11]  Pause.
[01:29:12]  AKA MOP, which I feel like is not a great acronym.
[01:29:17]  This thing is 30,000 pounds, 20 feet long, GPS guided bomb.
[01:29:25]  We're going to keep going because it can penetrate 200 feet of concrete before exploding.
[01:29:33]  Now, these are America's largest conventional bombs.
[01:29:38]  There was some chatter recently that I don't believe, but I just want to point out there was chatter that the U.S. dropped MOPs against the Houthis back in April.
[01:29:47]  DOD denied this.
[01:29:49]  They did deploy B-2s.
[01:29:51]  And we should say the B-2 is what drops the big stealth bomber.
[01:29:55]  Yes, the MOP, and it can hold, I think, two of them, which is kind of crazy considering that they're so fucking big.
[01:30:02]  No.
[01:30:03]  But they deployed B2s, but they never, DOD didn't clarify what they were dropping on the Houthis, interestingly enough.
[01:30:10]  But this would mark the first use of them in action.
[01:30:14]  One thing that I do want to point out, because these have never been used and they were developed many, many years ago, there is a potential that these actually go much deeper, that they can penetrate much deeper because they obviously get updated as the years go on.
[01:30:32]  I think Boeing makes them.
[01:30:33]  I can't remember, but I think it's Boeing.
[01:30:37]  And there are some people who think that Iran's nuclear facilities go much deeper than the 200 feet and that the Booker busters wouldn't be able to get to them.
[01:30:45]  And then there are others that are like, no, the Bookerbusters can go deeper than the 200 feet.
[01:30:50]  Anyway, nobody knows.
[01:30:51]  And also like, you know, okay, so it doesn't exactly hit them, but it causes enough fucking to blow everything up.
[01:30:57]  We'll talk about that because that's a problem.
[01:30:59]  Because if you're going to go after the new, because of the way that the stakes are in this confrontation, if you're going to go after the nuclear capabilities, you have to get it all.
[01:31:11]  Because if you leave just a little trace, they can keep going.
[01:31:14]  And that's what makes this really kind of precarious and a little bit funny.
[01:31:20]  Now, I think there's a question that I want to just throw out there whether or not the U.S. would want to destroy all the weapons facilities, even if they could.
[01:31:31]  And I do think that's up for debate.
[01:31:33]  You know, Iran has been stockpiling missiles and weapons for decades because everybody and their mom and their grandmother knew that this was coming at some point.
[01:31:45]  You know, they also have hypersonic missiles, which the U.S. still doesn't have.
[01:31:49]  And, you know, having access to a massive Iranian weapons cache would be very useful given the needs on the Ukrainian front and whether or not the U.S. is seriously looking at China or at Russia.
[01:32:04]  I mean, recall that after the fall of Assad, there were, you know, all these reports of a ton of weapons from Syria ending up in Ukraine, right?
[01:32:13]  So it's not that crazy.
[01:32:14]  Also, if you haven't recently, look at a map.
[01:32:17]  All this shit is way closer than you think in your mind.
[01:32:20]  Yeah.
[01:32:22]  So I think that, you know, you mentioned this in terms of you thinking that Iran should have a nuke.
[01:32:27]  I agree.
[01:32:29]  Iran, I think, kind of fucked up a little bit, not just though with the nuke, but I constantly am like, how does, does anyone actually really try to trust the Americans?
[01:32:41]  Like, the Americans are so fucking untrustworthy.
[01:32:44]  It's like a caricature of like shifty ass Americans.
[01:32:47]  Yes.
[01:32:48]  Like you can't negotiate with Trump and not because of out of the deal, but like because he's like a fucking.
[01:32:56]  I was going to say something else.
[01:32:57]  And a psycho.
[01:32:58]  Yeah.
[01:32:58]  And senile.
[01:32:59]  And crazy.
[01:33:00]  And a moron.
[01:33:02]  And like has tenuous control over even some of his own parts of his own administration.
[01:33:06]  Yes.
[01:33:07]  And I would say 100% does not control the intelligence services, although I don't know if any president does.
[01:33:12]  Yeah.
[01:33:13]  I would even throw out there.
[01:33:14]  I'm not sure he has control over the military, but that's just my own personal feelings.
[01:33:18]  I'm saying I'm not going to speak for anyone.
[01:33:21]  You know, like we mentioned, Israel attacked during the negotiations and all of that.

=== Israel Under Siege (12:40) ===

[01:33:25]  I mean, you see that coming and it's just like, okay, come on.
[01:33:28]  You know, like, how could you trust these guys?
[01:33:31]  Also, it's not like Israel plays by the rules either, like we've talked about, you know, earlier.
[01:33:35]  I mean, I think that a lot of people agree that Iran is not in a condition to fight the United States because who is?
[01:33:46]  Unless Russia and China were to get involved, which would be a really crazy event.
[01:33:52]  And then you're looking at kind of a war of attrition, which a lot of people have talked about.
[01:33:56]  But I think that there's a weird pickle because if Russia and China don't and the U.S. does join in, like they'll suffer the same fate as Iran, right?
[01:34:06]  So there's this like kind of weird well.
[01:34:08]  I mean, I don't know, the same exact fate as Iran.
[01:34:10]  They'll eventually be attacked.
[01:34:12]  Yeah.
[01:34:13]  I mean, everyone knows like, you know, I mean, there's like neocons frothing to start regime change operations in Russia.
[01:34:21]  Yeah.
[01:34:22]  And that's been on the docket after Iran for decades.
[01:34:26]  I know, but I think, I think just what we're dealing with with, I mean, I think one of the several other differences is those are both nuclear powers.
[01:34:35]  Right.
[01:34:35]  You know, and so like there isn't, there's like a much wider with Iran, you don't necessarily need proxy to attack because there's like a sort of a limited response that they can give just by the nature of, first of all, their location, second of all, their capabilities, their economy, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
[01:34:55]  But with Russia and China, like that is, I mean, you know, say what you will, like, the Russians have made it this far.
[01:35:04]  No, I mean, it would be a fool's errand for the Americans, no matter what.
[01:35:07]  I'm just saying these guys are fucking drones in.
[01:35:09]  Yeah, yeah, yeah.
[01:35:10]  But I think like we probably could, I mean, I think almost without a shadow of a doubt, like we could take Iran, not in a way that would be good for the earth or for people in Iran or America, but like we could win a war against Iran.
[01:35:23]  I'm not sure what that looks like against Russia or China, you know?
[01:35:27]  Yeah, I don't know.
[01:35:27]  I mean, I think one of the things that looms large is what's the status with the Axis of resistance and then what's the status with Russia and China.
[01:35:35]  Those are like kind of two things.
[01:35:37]  I was reading kind of a long comment from Muhammadi, who was saying some interesting things that I'll kind of like reiterate here.
[01:35:46]  He's saying that the Axis is kind of restrained by choice, meaning that they're holding fire right now for political reasons because everyone is waiting to see what Washington is going to do and expand, you know, if they're going to expand the war.
[01:35:59]  Because I think a lot of people are like, where is everyone?
[01:36:01]  Why aren't they joining in?
[01:36:03]  But you kind of have to wait and see because if the Americans don't directly jump in, you kind of like want to wait until you get all the other guys to jump in.
[01:36:15]  You know what I'm saying?
[01:36:17]  And in that instance, the Houthis would reopen their attacks.
[01:36:23]  And if Iran had, you know, moves to shut the strait, which we'll talk about in a second, and the Houthis can then shut down their end, like the entire Red Sea shipping lane would be shut down, which would be a pretty big escalation, just globally speaking.
[01:36:41]  So he's saying there's like, you know, kind of a strategic logic behind the lull that I think is important to call out.
[01:36:49]  And that coalition forces, you know, they act as kind of like a latent deterrent aimed primarily at Washington.
[01:36:57]  Yeah.
[01:36:58]  I mean, I think, I think one of the problems with that, though, is that like since October 7th, we've seen basically the, well, first of all, with Syria, the destruction of one of the members of the Axis Resistance, like complete destruction.
[01:37:13]  And I mean, not that they were, they were sort of a less a military factor in a lot of this, but still, you know, an important factor in some ways.
[01:37:22]  And then the, you know, the decapitation of Hezbollah and sort of taking them out of the fight.
[01:37:28]  And so like, as of now, the axis of resistance is like, I mean, to me, I've sort of been, and I'm not one of those people who, like, whenever there's like fighting in the Middle East, who's like, we need everybody to do everything now, like attack, But I'm also not one of those people who's like, they know that everyone is so wise.
[01:37:47]  And like, you know, I don't know what they know.
[01:37:48]  Like, you know, obviously I'm seeing this from sort of a layman's perspective.
[01:37:51]  And, you know, I'm not in any fucking in the situation room anywhere.
[01:37:56]  But I, I, you know, it, it is, I think that they have suffered quite badly, the axis of resistance since October 7th and are in a, on a, in a much worse footing than they were ever.
[01:38:10]  And I'm just like, the capabilities keep getting degraded and degraded.
[01:38:14]  I mean, this is, you know, what Israel did to Iran is very kind of almost similar in many ways what they did to Syria, which is take out a bunch of air defenses and then, you know, do this assassination campaign.
[01:38:24]  And the difference, obviously, is that the civil war.
[01:38:26]  Civil war.
[01:38:27]  Yeah.
[01:38:27]  Yeah.
[01:38:27]  I mean, Syria was like not.
[01:38:28]  Exactly.
[01:38:29]  But still, you know, like, it's, it's, they, they degraded the capability of the government to be able to prevent.
[01:38:35]  And also just like with sanctions and everything, like it was just, I mean, it was, it fell in like a week and a half.
[01:38:42]  Yeah.
[01:38:42]  You know, sometimes like, I mean, but like the final push.
[01:38:46]  With Iran, it's just like, I don't know.
[01:38:49]  I mean, sometimes it just seems like they're going to wait and wait and wait and then time's just going to run out.
[01:38:53]  Well, no, I mean, you mean for the rest of the Axis coming in?
[01:38:56]  For the actual access coming in, and like at parts of this, too.
[01:39:00]  I mean, there was a lot of bluster around True Promise 1 and True Promise 2.
[01:39:04]  And a lot of that bluster was not met with action or not met, was not matched by action.
[01:39:10]  They are hitting a lot of Israel right now.
[01:39:12]  Now they are.
[01:39:13]  Yeah.
[01:39:13]  Now they are.
[01:39:14]  And Israel is certainly trying to prevent a lot of that from getting out by enforcing a strict regime of censorship around photos or whatever.
[01:39:22]  But it's clear that they are definitely hitting Israel in ways that I'm sort of surprised by.
[01:39:27]  But the thing is, when this previously happened, this sort of tit for tat strikes and True Promise 1 and 2, there wasn't a ton of damage and it was a lot of like for show.
[01:39:39]  And I'm glad that they, well, let me say, I'm neutral.
[01:39:42]  I'm, you know, I'm just an observer.
[01:39:43]  So you have balls and strikes here.
[01:39:45]  It's interesting that they have been able to do this much damage because my thought was, I was like, okay, well, they sort of let this, they were, I think, afraid of America taking an even bigger role and thought maybe they could negotiate or something.
[01:40:01]  And obviously, also, I think that was during Biden as well.
[01:40:04]  So, although that didn't matter for shit, but I was like, you know, Israel hits their missile stocks and like launchers, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
[01:40:13]  And so I was like, are they just going to fucking run out or have their capabilities so degraded by sort of these Israeli actions?
[01:40:20]  So that if there is a True Promise 3 or whatever, they just don't have the capabilities for it.
[01:40:26]  And so I was wondering if they were holding back so much that eventually they would just not be able to do it.
[01:40:31]  And so, you know, and the U.S. and Israel has hit the Houthis pretty hard too.
[01:40:36]  And again, we're not like a fucking, you know, again, I'm not a fucking expert on any of this stuff.
[01:40:41]  It just seems they're just in a much more tenuous place.
[01:40:46]  I think the axis of resistance.
[01:40:49]  I mean, I know that they are than they were a couple of years ago.
[01:40:52]  Yeah, I mean, they've definitely been hit pretty hard.
[01:40:55]  I don't think anyone denies that.
[01:40:56]  I do think that Israel is hurting very bad, and Iran is hitting them a lot harder than they anticipated.
[01:41:06]  Yeah.
[01:41:06]  And given their depletion rate versus what Iran, Iran's might be, I think it looks a little bit less like it would look, I mean, the U.S. would have to come in or they're going to have to stop.
[01:41:20]  But I want to talk about Russia and China because I do think it's important to mention them as the sort of like, I don't know, the big brothers looming, haunting this, this whole thing, because I think that like, I see a lot of people online being like, when's China going to get in?
[01:41:35]  What about China?
[01:41:35]  They got to step in.
[01:41:36]  They got to do something.
[01:41:37]  And like China's military is very impressive and very large.
[01:41:44]  No one is denying that.
[01:41:45]  However, it is important to remember that like the U.S. is the only true global force.
[01:41:52]  Yeah.
[01:41:53]  Which means that they can show up anywhere at any point and sustain themselves and fight.
[01:41:58]  The PLA is not built to do that.
[01:42:00]  And part of that is because they're not built for power projection.
[01:42:03]  So they are geared toward dominating the near sea region.
[01:42:09]  And they're not built to live off of distant supply chains, which also the Chinese don't have.
[01:42:16]  in order to move troops and gear across the world, they would need to plug into the very U.S.-led logistics networks that they want to sidestep.
[01:42:26]  So that's just a reality.
[01:42:28]  That being said, Beijing, I think really, really, I mean, they do, they just really, really matter.
[01:42:33]  It's just different.
[01:42:34]  And so they can lend ships and drones and economic leverage.
[01:42:39]  And of course, like intelligence and all that stuff.
[01:42:41]  And none of that anyone would know about.
[01:42:43]  Right.
[01:42:44]  So like there's plenty of people out there who think that's already happening now.
[01:42:48]  But like they're not going to come out on Twitter and be like, hello, my name is China and I support Iran and we are now best friends.
[01:42:53]  Here's our hands up and we have joined the fight.
[01:42:55]  Like the Chinese don't do that.
[01:42:57]  That's not, that's just not how it's going to happen.
[01:43:01]  And when you're thinking about the capabilities, like I think a good way to think about it is that as of now, like the US can credibly come up with plans that they say make sense for defending Taiwan against an invasion from China.
[01:43:17]  But like China could never draw up a plan to defend, say, Panama against the U.S. invading.
[01:43:23]  You know what I mean?
[01:43:24]  Like that would be very, very complicated.
[01:43:28]  And so like this is very much changing, however, which is why we live in such interesting times.
[01:43:35]  And one of the things that's not talked about enough, I think, is that like the greatest cluster of military production now is happening in like Russia, China.
[01:43:45]  And all of that is kind of thanks to the Ukrainian war, which like really shifted that massive base.
[01:43:52]  Yeah, it's funnily enough, like so much of, I mean, so much of every war is about logistics, but like so much of the Ukrainian-Russian war has been about like replenishment of certain kinds of ammunition or certain like weapon types, whatever.
[01:44:06]  And Russia has been much more able to get their like production going than the sclerotic EU or the US has been able to.
[01:44:17]  Yeah.
[01:44:17]  I mean, and Germany just continued to de-industrialize.
[01:44:20]  Yeah.
[01:44:21]  Yeah, exactly.
[01:44:22]  No, isn't Germany doing like 100 billion?
[01:44:24]  They're trying now.
[01:44:25]  They're trying.
[01:44:26]  Green Party, you got it.
[01:44:27]  Actually, no, I guess they would be leading it.
[01:44:29]  German airplanes replenishing Israeli military.
[01:44:34]  Very Freudian.
[01:44:35]  Just today, I believe.
[01:44:36]  Yeah, interesting little.
[01:44:38]  It's very weird seeing the German.
[01:44:40]  So there's the sun being mounted by the mother and that.
[01:44:43]  You know what I'm saying?
[01:44:44]  That's how they do it.
[01:44:45]  But the cord.
[01:44:48]  So, yeah, I mean, and the Chinese, of course.
[01:44:51]  And the other thing too is I'm like, the Chinese, like, do you guys gotta, I'm like, China, this is completely non-political because China's whole thing is like, we don't intervene in anything.
[01:45:00]  They do, though.
[01:45:01]  I know they do.
[01:45:02]  I know they do, but it's very, it's like, they also do a lot of what you might call non-ideological interventions, too, where it's like, I mean, let's, I mean, you know, to put it out there, I mean, China is Israel's third largest trading partner.
[01:45:15]  Yeah.
[01:45:15]  You know what I mean?
[01:45:16]  They are, they are.
[01:45:17]  And Russia and Israel.
[01:45:19]  Yeah, they don't want to disrupt their little bond.
[01:45:23]  Yeah, exactly.
[01:45:24]  And so, like, it's, it's, there's like, sometimes I feel like a lot of like, uh, what they call wish casting about like China is like, God is going to put the hammer down in Israel.
[01:45:32]  They're not going to put the hammer down in Israel.
[01:45:33]  They don't put the hammer down on anybody.
[01:45:36]  Yeah.
[01:45:36]  I don't, yeah, I just don't think it's going to look like that.
[01:45:38]  Also, because there's so many long games to play with the United States.
[01:45:43]  And when they think in centuries, of course, the Chinese.
[01:45:46]  I don't mean it that way.
[01:45:47]  But the other thing I didn't mention, just, you know, because we were talking about it earlier, is Pakistan, which is something we should mention because they, of course, share a border and are nuclear armed and are also in a little bit of a paused confrontation themselves with India.

=== Enlarging the Battlefield (08:58) ===

[01:46:05]  We didn't even cover that.
[01:46:07]  No, that, I, yeah.
[01:46:08]  But anyway, they obviously, you know, have a friendship, we'll say, with the Chinese and, you know, could be abused.
[01:46:20]  Let me ask you this.
[01:46:21]  Riddle me this.
[01:46:24]  Pakistan, you can't just like sell Iran a nuke.
[01:46:28]  There's no way that no one's.
[01:46:30]  If I was wrong, I'd be sending a guy like every six months be like, dude, let me get one.
[01:46:33]  Give them what Pakistan.
[01:46:35]  Pakistan.
[01:46:37]  I mean, they helped North Korea out so much.
[01:46:40]  That's what people say.
[01:46:41]  That it's like, why didn't you kind of spread that around?
[01:46:44]  I guess they did spread it around a lot.
[01:46:46]  Well, also, Iran did get a lot of their centrifuges from Pakistan.
[01:46:51]  Yeah.
[01:46:51]  So like, yeah.
[01:46:52]  But, but, Amy, I'm just like, guys, you know, I mean, this is, you know, me.
[01:46:58]  I'm either full proliferation or non-proliferation.
[01:47:01]  And so I'm like, Iran, I mean, just to, I've said this before, like, I'm pretty sure Iran probably was working on a little bit of nuclear or something, that's something, something there.
[01:47:11]  As well, they should.
[01:47:12]  I know.
[01:47:13]  Because none of this shit would be happening if they had a fucking nuke.
[01:47:15]  Well, that's the whole thing.
[01:47:17]  I mean, that's what makes this whole confrontation very bizarre because like you have both camps just like kind of locked in opposing strategic imperatives, right?
[01:47:30]  You have Iran produce a weapon and then US and Israel prevent that from existing.
[01:47:37]  And so then the outcome then would just be like a perpetual like vigilant war because success means that for the for like Israel and the US would mean endless monitoring, repeated strikes, political pressure, like continuing and continuing.
[01:47:52]  And then for Iran, success would mean like slipping past just enough to test a device.
[01:47:57]  Exactly.
[01:47:57]  And then once that happens, the whole game, the whole board change.
[01:48:02]  whatever they say.
[01:48:03]  But like...
[01:48:03]  Pond takes night.
[01:48:06]  But like either way, you can see how there's just sort of like a like restless open-ended cycle of like blow and counter blow rather than some sort of like decisive piece.
[01:48:17]  Yeah.
[01:48:18]  Unless like something fundamental shifts in the like strategic thinking or yeah, I mean, you could see the conflict just sustaining itself indefinitely.
[01:48:29]  Yeah, exactly.
[01:48:29]  I mean, that's, that's the whole thing about this.
[01:48:31]  That's so, I was thinking about this the other day.
[01:48:33]  I'm like, okay, so Israel and Iran are at war.
[01:48:35]  Israel has at least been like, we're going to might going to try to do regime change.
[01:48:39]  And there's like sometimes, you know, people bring up Pahvi, whose wife probably, you probably need to get out of the arms of her fucking Pilates instructor, whoever, she's cheat, she's cheating in some way like that.
[01:48:49]  There's all these pictures of her.
[01:48:51]  Maybe they can do like a thrupple kind of situation.
[01:48:53]  But they sometimes sort of make these gestures at regime change.
[01:48:58]  We read that Brookings thing the other day.
[01:49:00]  The plan.
[01:49:01]  Yeah.
[01:49:02]  Although all those seem pretty unlikely.
[01:49:04]  I mean, Bolton and all those guys have been, I mean, yeah, we know for a fact that the U.S. goal with Iran is regime change.
[01:49:11]  Yeah.
[01:49:12]  Maybe not the goal specifically right now, but the overall goal.
[01:49:15]  Yes, yeah, yeah, for sure.
[01:49:17]  And, but, like, this war can't, I mean, I don't want to say that, actually, but like, this, it's just what we're seeing right now with the fighting at its current state, you know what I mean?
[01:49:29]  Where basically two countries launching long-range attacks on each other.
[01:49:33]  It's like, well, these can't, this can't end with like, you know, Iranian armed forces marching into Jerusalem.
[01:49:40]  You know what I mean?
[01:49:41]  Well, yeah, because this isn't really like a, there's also, this isn't like a war of conquest.
[01:49:45]  And also, that's not how wars are really fought now, which is we can talk about.
[01:49:49]  Yes, yes, yeah.
[01:49:50]  Like, I mean, I think that, you know, I kind of mentioned this earlier, but like this thing I've been thinking about a lot since basically the war in Ukraine kicked off, which is that like there's been this like really big change in military ops where because missiles and drones are so cheap to churn out, you get like it gives attackers an edge.
[01:50:12]  And so it means that like it matters more than ever to strike first and then like lay all the groundwork very early.
[01:50:19]  And so you see like an expansion and like kind of a premium placed on sleeper agents or hiding drones or sneaking malware into like systems before like actual shooting or conference like physical confrontation starts.
[01:50:35]  It's fifth generation warfare.
[01:50:36]  No, but it's true.
[01:50:37]  And so there's this like feedback loop that comes down to because this shit is so cheap and easy to produce, right?
[01:50:44]  Like this feedback loop where intelligence branches are now increasingly prominent, like taking the lead versus like how they were either kind of like buttressing or, you know, helping shape or provide intel, but not like the ones.
[01:51:02]  really like leading the charge in military operations or in warfare.
[01:51:06]  So in Ukraine, like the SBU operates like basically a fourth service branch.
[01:51:11]  The CIA runs the show there, like we mentioned.
[01:51:13]  Like for Russia, the SMO was basically structured kind of like an FSV op, you know, when you go back and look at it, rather than some sort of like general staff campaign, you know.
[01:51:25]  And I mean, Israel obviously massage with the insane attack on Hezbollah and now with the war in Iran, like them clearly leading the charge, which they've been very open about.
[01:51:38]  Definitely.
[01:51:39]  And this is like a very, this has a very big shift, you know, from like previous conventions.
[01:51:46]  And it's funny because it reminds me so much of the way that attacks on cartels were honed, where it was this sort of like head of the snake and go in intelligence first to take out the like key guys and the key members.
[01:52:03]  And it moving from kind of these attacks on these cartels to now then like state on attacks on state agencies is like very fascinating.
[01:52:10]  Well, also, I mean, look at, I think, I think two things.
[01:52:14]  One is Libya.
[01:52:16]  Yeah.
[01:52:17]  Look at that, right?
[01:52:17]  Like that was sort of like our war that wasn't a war.
[01:52:23]  You know what I mean?
[01:52:24]  Where we just send a bunch of intelligence agents and fucking airstrikes in there and special ops, yeah.
[01:52:30]  Special ops and fucking killed a bunch of key guys and then, you know, we did Sicario to them.
[01:52:36]  And look how great that turned out.
[01:52:38]  But we don't, you know, then we don't need to worry about it, right?
[01:52:40]  Like we, we, we kind of, we got the goal of at least neutralizing this country as a country, you know?
[01:52:46]  Yeah.
[01:52:47]  I think too, like as militaries shift to reorient themselves towards these, like, you know, towards all the stuff that we're talking about is that like the inevitable, like what it inevitably does is enlarge the battlefield, which is very concerning.
[01:53:06]  So like we mentioned the kind of like terrorist stuff, you know, the like long-range drone or missile strikes, they get hailed as like feats of technology and intelligence, but also there, it is what used to be called terrorism, you know, like civilians unwittingly getting turned into weapons or soldiers.
[01:53:24]  That's fucking crazy.
[01:53:26]  It's crazy.
[01:53:27]  It's crazy.
[01:53:28]  Scientists getting killed in their homes.
[01:53:30]  Of this, like the kind of war machine propaganda recasts these things and these tactics as legitimate, but it is a total, total shift.
[01:53:41]  And I think the thing is, is that as weapons become more and more quote unquote precise or at least marketed that way, and when and that precision then requiring more and more intelligence in order to like achieve the targets, it inevitably leads to basically anywhere being like a you know a battlefield.
[01:54:04]  Yeah, I mean, we've sort of been kind of tracing this for a while, and it's you know, it's kind of the talk right now, but it is just true, you know, like the special forces of the U.S. military is just like, and this is obviously, we were one of the countries that is like a big ass army, not as big as in terms of manpower as other people, but like, you know, it's a huge fucking industry, it's a very large machine.
[01:54:28]  But what we actually see get done in terms of that army are these very small, essentially like assassination or training equip style thing.
[01:54:39]  I mean, this is this has sort of been honed almost like since the 1960s, 1970s.
[01:54:43]  But just now, funnily enough, like, especially because of nuclear weapons, like we sort of see a lot of fights go on in these, like with proxy forces, with assassinations, with terrorism, with hacking or whatever.
[01:54:57]  It is generation warfare.
[01:55:00]  And economic weapons.
[01:55:01]  I mean, sanctions and all of that plays such a big part.

=== Oil Prices Skyrocketing? (03:18) ===

[01:55:04]  And that is super lopsided, right?
[01:55:07]  Because it's not like, okay, if Iran puts people on the sanctions, on their sanctions list, okay, you know.
[01:55:15]  But if the U.S. does it, like, you're locked out of the global financial system.
[01:55:20]  Yes, but that is a perfect transition because Iran does have a way to squeeze the dollar, literally, which is the non-nuclear nuclear move.
[01:55:34]  Option.
[01:55:43]  We're dropping Amy Schumer in!
[01:55:46]  That would be the big...
[01:55:48]  They've never done it.
[01:55:50]  They've never done it.
[01:55:52]  They've teased it, but they've always walked it back.
[01:55:54]  Or we've never gotten to the place where they, you know, they would actually do it or they need to do it.
[01:55:59]  I mean, that really is a kind of nuclear option.
[01:56:02]  For people who don't know, the Strait of Hormuz is, it's a very, it's a little guy, very narrow little guy at its narrowest.
[01:56:11]  Iran controls it at its narrowest.
[01:56:13]  It's only like 21 miles wide, but I think the shipping lines are much more narrow than that.
[01:56:18]  Yeah, because of like depth or whatever.
[01:56:20]  Yeah, so it's one of the world's most important shipping arteries, as I like to say.
[01:56:26]  You know, in 2023, one in five barrels of oil were shipped through there.
[01:56:31]  So there really is no other way to get stuff out of the Gulf than to go through here.
[01:56:39]  With the Houthis, you know, they could, even if they were, you know, shutting down the Red Sea, ships could go around the Horn of Africa, and everyone did.
[01:56:48]  It's kind of crazy to see the traffic change.
[01:56:51]  Julius Malima, we need you to take power.
[01:56:53]  Start firing.
[01:56:55]  But literally, nothing can get out of the Gulf without going through Hormuz.
[01:57:01]  And so what that means is that if they close the Strait, oil prices would skyrocket.
[01:57:08]  And if oil prices skyrocket, you're going to see a short squeeze on the dollar.
[01:57:12]  So there is a way that Iran can kind of squeeze here, which people are aware of.
[01:57:16]  I personally don't think that that is, as they like to say, priced in the threat of that.
[01:57:23]  I think people just don't think it's going to happen because it's just never happened.
[01:57:29]  Yeah, it's one of those things that like, I could see that happening.
[01:57:32]  I just, that seems like, that seems a little more World War III to me.
[01:57:36]  Yeah.
[01:57:36]  I mean, if that were to happen, I think you would, the risk of it being real would actually show up in the bond market just in the same way that it did during Liberation Day when all of the traders went and kind of, or the executive class and whatever, they voted with their feet by fucking pitching a fit in the bond market and then Trump walked everything back.
[01:57:56]  That's where you would start to see whether or not we are getting close to that.
[01:58:09]  So, you know, I mentioned before, if you're just like a regular person or even an irregular person in the USA, you might be thinking, why would I support the United States and Israel bombing Iran?

=== Why Support US Bombing Iran? (05:12) ===

[01:58:23]  Like, and I think it's a pretty fair question to ask, right?
[01:58:27]  You know, there's, there's obviously a lot of comparisons to 2003's invasion of Iraq.
[01:58:34]  But, you know, you'd also talk about the invasion of Afghanistan as well.
[01:58:37]  And like, obviously, keep in mind that happened after 9-11 and everyone went fucking crazy.
[01:58:45]  At the caves, man.
[01:58:46]  The cave, Toro Bora.
[01:58:48]  Everyone was like, it's in the mountains in the caves.
[01:58:52]  Where are we going first?
[01:58:53]  Not Pakistan.
[01:58:54]  Not Pakistan.
[01:58:55]  No, no, he's in the cave.
[01:58:57]  He's in the cave.
[01:58:57]  Getting his dialysis.
[01:59:00]  But, but, you know, there was pretty high support for definitely for Afghanistan.
[01:59:07]  But for Iraq as well, you know, it was like hugely, it was a big moment.
[01:59:12]  I don't know.
[01:59:13]  Maybe some of our listeners are young.
[01:59:15]  I was like, that was a very formative, formative moment.
[01:59:18]  I mean, I remember like, Yeah, I remember like almost every second of that roll-up because Colin Powell is a little baggy.
[01:59:26]  I remember watching fucking George Bush on TV in my living room and then my mom being like, well, you better get out in the streets.
[01:59:33]  Do you remember when somebody went around San Francisco and wheat pasted shrub over all of the signs up for Bush Street?
[01:59:42]  I remember that.
[01:59:43]  I don't remember that, but that's cute.
[01:59:46]  But there is not widespread support in America right now for strikes on Iran.
[01:59:53]  I can't imagine there.
[01:59:55]  I mean, it seems you have to be.
[01:59:56]  I'm sure you can get a poll to say whatever the fuck you want.
[01:59:59]  You really got to be.
[02:00:01]  I'm sorry.
[02:00:01]  You got to be fucking high to be like, yes, do it.
[02:00:05]  Hit him.
[02:00:07]  Conservatives and MAGA, I think, actually discreetly as like from the conservatives who sort of self-identify as MAGA are the most supportive.
[02:00:17]  But even there, depending on the poll, like most of the time it doesn't even break 40%.
[02:00:23]  I think it is kind of funny because I do think a lot of MAGA copers kind of assumed that he would be more dovish on Iran and more hawkish on China.
[02:00:34]  And I suspect that events will literally prove to be the opposite over time.
[02:00:39]  So it's funny now to kind of watch the whole kind of the flip.
[02:00:42]  You know, I was looking on Twitter earlier today about some of like some of like sort of the no longer alt-right, now dissident right sort of people talking about this stuff.
[02:00:52]  And they really have to, it's some careful maneuvering that they have to do.
[02:00:58]  Now they are like, fuck Iran.
[02:01:00]  Like these guys are stupid.
[02:01:02]  And like, obviously we don't support Israel.
[02:01:04]  But like if Trump wants to take Iran, like fuck these guys anyways.
[02:01:07]  Like they're third worlders.
[02:01:09]  Again, take a look at a map.
[02:01:10]  I mean like we're like learn something.
[02:01:11]  They were like searching Khomeini's tweets for mentions of George Floyd and shit.
[02:01:16]  They're like, oh, he's a wokey.
[02:01:19]  I know.
[02:01:20]  But there's a did he tweet something about George?
[02:01:23]  Oh, of course he did.
[02:01:24]  Yeah, He did.
[02:01:26]  A lot of people worry.
[02:01:27]  Of course.
[02:01:29]  I'm not afraid of that.
[02:01:30]  But Ayatollah was a big supporter of BLM even from like 2014, 2015.
[02:01:35]  I think he was talking about Trayvon and stuff, too.
[02:01:37]  Yeah, that's not surprising at all.
[02:01:40]  So Washington Post ran this poll.
[02:01:43]  And again, like, this is all pretty new.
[02:01:45]  So things could change.
[02:01:47]  This says, two-thirds of Democrats oppose airstrikes against Iran, but Republicans are not as united with 47% supporting strikes while 24% oppose them and 29% have no opinion.
[02:01:57]  I would say it's probably 29% having no opinion is really great.
[02:02:00]  I think there's a lot.
[02:02:01]  You got to understand.
[02:02:03]  There's a lot of people who just don't know that it's happening.
[02:02:07]  I think that's true.
[02:02:08]  Independents lean against the strikes by about a two to one margin with more than one-third unsure.
[02:02:12]  Among Trump voters, 46% of the airstrikes, 46% support airstrikes, while 26% are opposed and 28% are unsure.
[02:02:21]  It remains about the same in other polls.
[02:02:23]  I think there's only been a few done.
[02:02:25]  I looked at all of them.
[02:02:25]  Generally, people are, MAGA people are more amenable than both.
[02:02:30]  It is funny, though, because you know where it is really popular is Israel.
[02:02:34]  That's not surprising at all.
[02:02:37]  Yes.
[02:02:37]  Well, I was looking at Israeli polling.
[02:02:40]  80%, above 80% of Israeli Jews support the strikes.
[02:02:45]  Obviously, significantly less of Arab citizens of Israel.
[02:02:50]  It's funny, though, because there is pretty significant tension and dissension among the MAGA camp for bombing Iran.
[02:02:59]  Right.
[02:03:00]  Well, there was the big Tucker thing like we talked about.
[02:03:02]  Yeah.
[02:03:02]  I mean, Tucker, Tucker has sort of like done this, I don't know what.
[02:03:09]  I mean, this sort of slightly dovish thing on some countries and then still hawkish about China.
[02:03:15]  But like soft on Russia and whoever else, like Iran, but still tough on China.
[02:03:20]  He like, there was also a report that, and I think Trump kind of talked this up too, that Tucker like called Trump after the interview aired and Trump made it seem like he was apologizing and a little bit, you know, sort of like, oh, Melish, I'm so sorry.

=== Political Texts and Feelings (10:50) ===

[02:03:36]  Please, it was just for TV.
[02:03:38]  You know how it is.
[02:03:39]  Yes.
[02:03:39]  I mean, Steve Bannon reportedly visited the White House, so I can't imagine.
[02:03:42]  Trump's probably just like, I like the guy.
[02:03:44]  I don't know they let him back in there.
[02:03:46]  They do.
[02:03:46]  Yeah.
[02:03:47]  Too stinky.
[02:03:48]  Free lunch.
[02:03:49]  Marjorie Taylor Greene has come out against the Bible.
[02:03:52]  I forgot about her completely.
[02:03:54]  And then Tulsi, of course, said back in March that they weren't billing a nuke.
[02:03:57]  Now, I believe has actually said, like, signed on to, what do you call it?
[02:04:04]  Trump's, you know, like, will I or won't I?
[02:04:07]  Maybe I will, maybe I won't.
[02:04:09]  I mean, she's going to play the game, but I have a feeling she's not making it through the year at DNI.
[02:04:13]  Or DNI.
[02:04:14]  I was reading there's like a long political thing out about how Trump's dissatisfied with her.
[02:04:20]  And, you know, who knows these things?
[02:04:21]  It's all anonymous sources all the way down.
[02:04:23]  But he's talking about folding the position to CIA director.
[02:04:27]  Like, I can see that happening.
[02:04:29]  It's funny.
[02:04:30]  This tension in the MAGA camp, I do wonder if it'll have some effect on Trump.
[02:04:35]  I feel like he's testing the water a little bit, but, you know.
[02:04:39]  I don't think he gives a fuck.
[02:04:42]  I think there is some, I think that he's either going to do it or not do it, regardless of what they think.
[02:04:47]  But I think the extent and some of the rhetoric will be a little bit affected.
[02:04:52]  I think that what's not like among regular MAGA people, but like media personalities.
[02:04:56]  Yeah, I think that what he cares about is whether or not they think that they can actually win.
[02:05:01]  Yeah.
[02:05:02]  And I think that they don't know.
[02:05:04]  Yeah.
[02:05:04]  I mean, it's funny.
[02:05:06]  I was talking to my friend the other day.
[02:05:07]  I was like, you know, because there's a lot of people who are like, oh, he's going to do it this weekend.
[02:05:11]  He's going to do it this weekend.
[02:05:11]  Yeah, Seymour Hirsch came out and said.
[02:05:14]  Yeah, sometimes I feel like.
[02:05:15]  I hope that he's wrong.
[02:05:17]  Yeah, but yeah, who knows on that?
[02:05:21]  But I'm like, I could see him doing it on 4th of July.
[02:05:25]  Oh, come on.
[02:05:26]  I could see it.
[02:05:27]  It was insane.
[02:05:28]  He posted this text message from Mike Huckabee.
[02:05:31]  I mean, he's all been blustering on Truth Social.
[02:05:34]  In fact, I wrote about this in our newsletter this week.
[02:05:36]  The text message is crazy.
[02:05:37]  It is insane.
[02:05:39]  Can you just read this text out?
[02:05:40]  I will read all of it.
[02:05:41]  This is from Mike Huckabee, the Poor Sign former Arkansas governor, whose similarly Poor Sign daughter was the press secretary during Trump won.
[02:05:55]  And he is now the ambassador to Israel, in case you have forgotten, appointed by Trump.
[02:06:00]  Mr. President, God spared you in Butler, PA, to be the most consequential president in a century, maybe ever.
[02:06:09]  The decisions on your shoulders, I would not want to be made by anyone else.
[02:06:13]  You have many voices speaking to you, sir, but there is only one capital voice that matters, his voice.
[02:06:22]  I am your appointed servant in this land and am available for you, but I do not try to get in your presence often because I trust your instincts.
[02:06:32]  No president in my lifetime has been in a position like yours, not since Truman in 1945.
[02:06:38]  No, that's a dog whistle.
[02:06:40]  I don't reach out to persuade you, only to encourage you.
[02:06:43]  I believe you will hear from heaven.
[02:06:46]  And that voice is far more important than mine or anyone else's.
[02:06:51]  You sent me to Israel to be your eyes, ears, and voice, and to make sure our flag flies above our embassy.
[02:06:59]  My job is to be the last one to leave.
[02:07:01]  I will not abandon this post.
[02:07:03]  Our flag will not come down.
[02:07:06]  It's like, I didn't think it was going to come down, but now you said it.
[02:07:10]  What's going on here?
[02:07:11]  You did not seek this moment.
[02:07:13]  The moment sought you.
[02:07:15]  Sought this moment.
[02:07:16]  It is my honor to serve you.
[02:07:19]  Mike Huckabee, he signed his text.
[02:07:21]  I do want to say just right off the bat, this reads like an ISIS dispatch.
[02:07:26]  This shit reads like a fucking al-Qaeda or ISIS like call to jihad to me.
[02:07:34]  Well, I think one thing that we can't discount here is that this is an iPad text message screenshot because this much text can't fit on your regular iPhone.
[02:07:41]  No?
[02:07:42]  Well, it's cut off.
[02:07:45]  Is it?
[02:07:45]  Yeah, it could be.
[02:07:47]  It was in two.
[02:07:48]  I think it could be iPad.
[02:07:50]  It could also be big iPhone.
[02:07:52]  It's the meme with the super long phone.
[02:07:54]  Yeah.
[02:07:55]  Yeah, it's a long text message.
[02:07:57]  I'm just like, these people, doesn't it just feel, it just feels like everyone's fucking.
[02:08:03]  Could you imagine me the kind of person that's like, oh, yeah, God's going to tell Trump what to do in this situation.
[02:08:08]  They're all fucking saying that to him.
[02:08:10]  And they're all holding each other and fucking talking in tongues and being like fucking bomb around and doing their fucking like tongue like fucking dances like Pentecostal Jesus freaks because they are and they think they're on a mission from fucking God.
[02:08:27]  I want to ask our listeners.
[02:08:28]  I mean, I feel like you probably all agree with me, but I just really, it's like when Israel bombed Iran on June 13th or any of the other times, did you ever feel like that made you safer or less safe?
[02:08:40]  Like when Israel does any of this shit, like, does it make you safer or does it make you less safe?
[02:08:46]  Like, is any of this good for you?
[02:08:48]  Obviously it is not.
[02:08:49]  You know, it is like, it drives me fucking crazy that they try to sell this as somehow like helpful to people.
[02:08:55]  When Trump was like making sure that Iran doesn't have a nuke is America first, what the fuck are you talking about?
[02:09:01]  I feel like the only thing this has demonstrated is that everyone should have a nuke.
[02:09:05]  Yes.
[02:09:05]  So that none of this shit has to be.
[02:09:07]  This makes me want to get a nuclear bomb.
[02:09:09]  Well, I do think that that is the motto, which is summer 2025.
[02:09:12]  We should be nuke maxing.
[02:09:14]  Nuclear.
[02:09:14]  No, it's no, we need a nuclear summer.
[02:09:17]  I'm telling you.
[02:09:19]  That can go either way.
[02:09:20]  We need to make it hotter, unlivable.
[02:09:22]  You know, it just, these people, I just think, I hate, I hate these fucking cocksuckers so fucking much.
[02:09:29]  And there's like the, what is the, what is it, what are you supposed to get?
[02:09:33]  You, Chuck Schumer?
[02:09:34]  He's not saying shit.
[02:09:35]  Literally.
[02:09:35]  He's calling Trump a chicken.
[02:09:36]  Yeah, because he supports it.
[02:09:38]  He supports it.
[02:09:38]  They have affordable.
[02:09:40]  It's like the resistance to it is about like Tim Kane.
[02:09:45]  Tim Kane in the membrane.
[02:09:48]  Tim Kane in the brain.
[02:09:51]  You know what I mean?
[02:09:52]  It's like, I think Tim Kaine, Bernie came out against it.
[02:09:54]  Thomas Massey ran to Paul.
[02:09:56]  This is nobody's.
[02:09:58]  No disrespect.
[02:09:59]  Well, it's not like we just could do anything anyway.
[02:10:01]  I know.
[02:10:01]  It's none of these people.
[02:10:02]  Oh, we're going to do a war power.
[02:10:04]  Every fucking time.
[02:10:05]  Yeah, you know what that happens?
[02:10:06]  Then the executive says, okay, we don't believe the war powers is constitutional.
[02:10:09]  Let's take it to the Supreme Court.
[02:10:10]  Yeah, oh, that doesn't apply here.
[02:10:12]  When they're going to do it.
[02:10:13]  And then they're like, oh, yeah, you're right.
[02:10:14]  The executive, you know, he has control over the military.
[02:10:16]  No war powers.
[02:10:17]  You can just do things.
[02:10:20]  And, you know.
[02:10:21]  By the way, I don't believe that.
[02:10:22]  You can't just do things.
[02:10:23]  I kind of do.
[02:10:24]  No, you can't because there needs there.
[02:10:27]  There has to be rules because if there are not rules, then everyone is a fucking terrorist.
[02:10:30]  And I refuse to believe that that is how we are going to live in this world.
[02:10:35]  But this world is like that right now, I think.
[02:10:38]  No, I agree.
[02:10:39]  I'm saying, but it should not be.
[02:10:41]  I know, but I'm saying, and it's, and to our listeners out there, and I'm not saying to do it or anything, don't.
[02:10:47]  No, stop it.
[02:10:49]  Do it.
[02:10:50]  There's nothing to do.
[02:10:51]  There's only, well.
[02:10:52]  Stop it.
[02:10:52]  There's nothing to do.
[02:10:56]  We disavow.
[02:10:57]  I mean, we just, there's.
[02:11:00]  Anyways, but I'm saying, like, they're saying there's no rules.
[02:11:05]  And then there's a bunch of people acting like there's still rules.
[02:11:07]  So you're the only one constrained by that.
[02:11:08]  The problem is that if everyone else stops playing by the rules too, then the people who can play even more less by the rules will go fucking psycho.
[02:11:22]  I mean, I don't know.
[02:11:23]  You cannot escalate to de-escalate against someone like Donald Trump.
[02:11:27]  I mean, I'm not with the Houthis.
[02:11:29]  I don't take political positions.
[02:11:32]  I don't take political positions.
[02:11:34]  You know, I'm an entertainer.
[02:11:37]  and showman.
[02:11:40]  But when the Houthis are saying, you know, like, we don't care.
[02:11:43]  No, they're so good.
[02:11:44]  Make it a world war.
[02:11:45]  Yeah.
[02:11:45]  You know, I, And they, they got the U.S. to a truce.
[02:11:49]  They did.
[02:11:50]  They did.
[02:11:50]  I'm just saying, they just did things, you know?
[02:11:53]  Well, Iran is doing things right now.
[02:11:56]  It just, I feel like a lot of people feel crazy right now.
[02:11:59]  And again, it's still, and this is, I am agreeing with you on this.
[02:12:02]  It feels like there's nobody in fucking charge, you know?
[02:12:04]  Like, and it definitely feels like there's like not a real opposition to whatever this is.
[02:12:10]  And I'm talking about more than like the Iran Israel stuff or whatever.
[02:12:14]  Like, it's just, it's, it's, it's these nuts everywhere, you know?
[02:12:20]  And, you know, Israel and the U.S. and all these fucking European countries are just like, it's just, they, they're just, they're, they're sick freaks doing whatever they want.
[02:12:30]  And it's like, no, nobody can, and there's so many people going along with it.
[02:12:33]  It's just, it drives me crazy.
[02:12:35]  And I can understand how a lot of people feel.
[02:12:37]  I think a lot of people, I've talked to a lot of people in the last week who kind of feel insane because it just seems like one crazy thing happens after another crazy thing.
[02:12:44]  And there's like nobody standing there and being like, stop this.
[02:12:47]  This has gone too far.
[02:12:49]  You know?
[02:12:50]  The only thing to stop it is Trump tacoing.
[02:12:52]  Yeah.
[02:12:53]  And that's what we're relying on is this fucking, is this, is this guy?
[02:12:56]  And the bond vigilantes.
[02:12:58]  Yeah, exactly.
[02:13:00]  It's like, it's, it's just, I'm not saying this, but like, it just seems like someone, I don't know.
[02:13:05]  But anyways, I won't finish.
[02:13:08]  That doesn't, that sentence is just whatever.
[02:13:10]  It just ends.
[02:13:11]  It trails off into ellipses.
[02:13:14]  You want to end this?
[02:13:15]  Much like this episode.
[02:13:18]  Yes.
[02:13:20]  My name is Liz.
[02:13:21]  My name is Brayson.
[02:13:22]  And another thing, one more thing, actually.
[02:13:23]  I always see, and maybe this is fine, whatever.
[02:13:27]  I go waffle on this, but you kind of see like on social media being like, look, these pictures, like they have fucking coffee shops and like, you know, they have like hipsters in Iran or whatever.
[02:13:36]  It's like, it doesn't matter if like Tehran is made up of fucking one-story mud huts with people who can't read in it.
[02:13:43]  Yes.
[02:13:44]  And obviously it's not.
[02:13:45]  No.
[02:13:46]  But like, and maybe it's good that people can see that like, oh, look, they look like you or whatever.
[02:13:51]  But it doesn't matter if they look like you or they don't look like you.
[02:13:53]  Sorry, I'm fidgeting with stuff, so there's probably some background noise.
[02:13:57]  It's like what the Israel and the U.S. are doing right now is wrong no matter what.
[02:14:01]  It doesn't matter if they like look enough like American fucking people who go to coffee shops or whatever, like people you see on Instagram or whatever.
[02:14:10]  That doesn't matter.
[02:14:11]  It doesn't matter what they are.
[02:14:13]  What the U.S. and what Israel is doing is fucking nuts.
[02:14:17]  And somebody needs to stop it.
[02:14:19]  Anyways, I'm Bryce.
[02:14:21]  I'm Princess Yang Chomsky.
[02:14:22]  And this has been Truanon.
[02:14:24]  We'll see you next time.
[02:14:25]  Bye-bye.