Prophecy and Political Violence - From the Seven Mountains to J6
What if told you 9% of Americans think only Christians should be eligible for citizenship? Or if 14% thought that their church should have veto power over American law? What if there was evidence that belief in modern day prophets is linked to political violence and extreme belief? This is exactly what sociologist Paul Djupe found in recent studies on the topic.
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Welcome to Straight White American Jesus.
My name is Brad Onishi, faculty at the University of San Francisco.
And I'm here today with a return guest, but somebody who has not been here since the pandemic started.
Like the last time I saw you, Paul, there was no pandemic yet.
So I don't even know what to say to you because it feels like we live in a completely different world.
But Dr. Paul Joop is here.
I'm going to tell you about him in a minute, but thanks for joining me.
Really appreciate it.
So happy to be here and survive the pandemic.
Yeah, exactly.
Well, Dr. Joop is a political scientist at Denison University and specializes in religion and politics.
The editor of the Religious Engagement and Democratic Politics series at Temple University Press, is the former editor of the APSA Politics and Religion Journal, and has written a number of books, including The Evangelical Crackup, The Future of the Evangelical Republican Coalition, And this is where many of you may be familiar with his work, just because it's so public and so helpful.
And that is his writing at Religion in Public, which he co-founded.
And we're going to talk about some of that work today.
We want to talk about prophecy.
We want to talk about how many Americans So, I want to get into data here in a minute.
I want to get into everything that you found when you asked how many Americans believe that there are modern-day prophets among us and that they believe they can foretell the future or other things.
I know sociologists don't like this kind of question, but I'm going to ask anyway.
Why this question?
Why the question of modern day prophecy?
What sort of stirred you to start collecting data on this theme?
Yeah.
Well, thanks again for having me.
This is really great.
Love to talk to you, especially because I just so appreciate this podcast.
It's so wonderful.
Anyway, yeah, so why are we here?
And this goes back quite a while to the Trump campaign.
And, you know, there were just some new evangelicals, not in the sort of, air quote, new evangelical sense, but some folks that I just hadn't seen before interacting with Republican officials.
And, of course, when he formed his Evangelical Advisory Council, There were just some folks in there that just didn't seem like, you know, your sort of prototypical evangelicals, like just, you know, head of the Baptist convention sort of thing.
And, you know, so I started to kind of dig into this and try to find out who these folks were.
And some of it was prosperity gospel, so-called prosperity gospel preachers.
But then there were others that didn't really fit that mark.
You know, as the Trump administration goes forward, and as we build toward the 2020 election, there were some folks saying some pretty strident things about the power of God to change events on Earth, and that Trump had a special religious role to play, and so all the things that we could hear on charismatic revival theory We're hitting me too.
And I didn't know as much, definitely not grounded in this tradition whatsoever, but figured out enough to say that these were prophecy believers, and these folks were self-described prophets.
And my MO across about the last decade has been Hey, there's some people saying some awfully strange things from my perspective.
I've never heard them before.
And I just want to know, you know, how many people believe this and, you know, what are the ramifications?
And it turns out that I think this is a really important thing for us to know about.
I appreciate that a lot because I think a couple of things.
I'm a humanist.
I'm somebody who really has been trained to investigate history and text.
And I think it's easy sometimes, especially on this podcast, to take things that seem strange or outlandish and to say, hey, we should talk about that because Marjorie Taylor Greene said this or Stephen Wolf wrote a book that says that.
What I appreciate about your approach is you're a sociologist who can really give us the data behind that and say, well, actually, how many people believe in this?
And as you mentioned, and I should have said this at the top, friends, that Dr. Jupe's work on this, he does sort of mention Charismatic Revival Theory, our series on the New Apostolic Reformation written and created by Dr. Matthew Taylor.
So we're really talking about things that touch on the New Apostolic Reformation, independent charismatics, and many others.
So if we go back to some of your work a year ago, and we'll just do this briefly because there's so much to get into, but even before you started asking about prophecy, you asked about prophecy in terms of Trump's anointing and other things, you asked about prophecy and belief in election fraud.
And I'm just wondering if you can just, you know, briefly tell us what you found about a year ago related to, hey, I'm someone who believes in prophecy, and that means I am likely or unlikely to believe that the election was stolen or that there was fraud in the 2020 election.
How do those two go together?
Well, it may seem strange, but I think they're deeply connected, given the kinds of messages that prophets were delivering.
And it goes back to something that apparently Lance Wallnau was one of the first to trot out, which is that Trump is the new Cyrus, the new King Cyrus, that he's anointed by God.
To fulfill a special, you know, special destiny with regard to Christians in the United States.
And so if you're proclaiming, you know, with authority that God has pronounced a judgment that, you know, say Trump is the president, should be the president, and will be the president for the near future, then anything that's working against that is going to be illegitimate.
Right?
And likely caused by some kind of fraud, right?
Certainly caused by some sort of evil.
And that kind of language has been trotted out too.
I mean, this is a demonic action to deny Trump the presidency.
So, of course, they're going to believe that it was fraudulent and just plain wrong, right?
So, it's deeply related to the idea of prophecy itself.
And, you know, spills out in lots of different directions.
This is primarily a point that I was going to make a little bit later.
This is primarily about power.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Well, let's come back to that.
You've continued on this track.
So, a year ago, you were asking about prophecy and election fraud.
Now, we're really talking about how many Americans actually believe in prophecy.
And the stakes seem pretty high here because it just sounds like if you believe in prophecy, there's a high chance you believe things like the big lie and some other things that we'll get into.
Knowing how many Americans believe in prophecy actually seems like it's a pretty important question to answer.
Let me start here.
What were some of the questions you asked people in order to determine if they do believe in prophecy?
Yep.
And as is pretty typical for those who do research, survey research, we don't put all our eggs in one basket.
So I asked a variety of questions.
And actually, after I asked the first batch of questions, that's when I had a conversation with Dr. Taylor, and he pushed me to refine one of them.
He said, oh, it's okay, and I'll Give you the question, and then his rebuttal.
Of course, he bears no responsibility for any kind of claims that I'm making here, but we did have a productive conversation.
Anyway, to get to that fundamental, the first batch of questions I asked, the kind of cornerstone one, Is that God reveals his plans for the future to humans as prophecy, right?
So just foretelling the future, this is the way things are going to unfold.
And this was consistent across the two surveys in which I've asked these questions.
So one just came out of the field a month and a half ago. 38% Believe in prophecy.
As some others too, like God is in control over the course of events on earth, just about the same proportion, just under 40%.
God has given some people the power to heal others through prayer, and I'll talk about the link there, and that's about the same, about 36%.
So very, very similar.
So a lot of these are very closely linked.
The way that Matthew Taylor pushed me to refine these questions was to ask about specifically modern-day prophets.
So the way I asked this was, modern-day prophets continue to reveal God's plans to humanity.
And you can see the difference now.
If you believe the former, which was God reveals his plans for the future to humans as prophecy, That could have been just in biblical times, right?
It could have been limited to a few thousand years ago and not updated.
So what he really wanted to know, and I think we need to know for the modern prophecy movement, is whether modern-day prophets continue to reveal God's plans.
And there's a little bit of slippage here.
So it was 38%, but 28% of the American public, American adults, agree that modern-day prophets continue to reveal God's plans to humanity.
So, I've described these as New Apostolic Reformation consistent, but don't necessarily tell us that all of those folks are New Apostolic NAR believers.
But 28% is a pretty sizable group of folks.
It's way more than I'm comfortable with, I will tell you that.
And so, let me just, for myself and for everyone at home, let me make sure I got it right, Paul.
38% would say, I believe in prophecy, meaning I might read the Bible and think that it might tell me something about the future.
Now when I ask modern day prophets, so like maybe a guy who is a leader at my church, maybe Lance Wallnau, maybe Che Ahn, maybe Paula White Cain.
They might be prophets who are telling the future.
That goes to 28%.
Do I have that right?
That's correct.
Okay.
So what you're telling me is we might have about 40% of Americans who are like, you know, I believe in prophecy, meaning could be a live person, but also could just be limited to like, I read the book of Revelation, or I read the book of Isaiah, and I think this will happen.
But when I say to you, There's living people who are prophets, and they will tell you what's going to happen, say, in 2024 election.
28% of Americans believe that.
That is a lot of people.
That is a lot of people.
What sticks out to me is that I think of the PRRI data, Brookings data, from February, and we have about 3 in 10 Americans who are scoring as Christian nationalists in some way.
Now, I'm not going to make some... I know, as a sociologist, you're getting really Tense right now.
You're like, don't do it.
Don't mix the data.
The questions were not the same, and it doesn't work.
Go ahead.
Go ahead.
Let's do it.
But I just do want to observe, and this is probably just me, but 30% of Americans identify as Christian nationalists.
We have about almost 30% who believe there's modern day prophets who are telling the future right now.
To me, it's just worth kind of keeping in mind.
It's like 30% for both numbers, 28% in one and about 32% in the other.
Well, if I can jump in there.
I mean, of course, I asked the typical questions to capture Christian nationalism in the American public, and there's a very strong relationship between these two things.
I would say that the most ardent modern prophecy believers would adopt about 80% of the Christian nationalist ideas.
that around.
The most ardent modern prophecy believers would adopt about 80% of the Christian nationalist ideas.
It's a very, very strong relationship.
So when we've got, yeah, so basically if you believe in modern day prophecy, that there are people who are prophets right now walking among us, there's like a really, really, really high chance you're a Christian nationalist is what you're telling me.
Absolutely.
Let's go to something that was a big part of the Charismatic Revival Fury series and that is going back to the person you mentioned before, Lance Wallnau.
And that's the seven mountains mandate.
Can you tell us, you know, you asked some more questions regarding kind of belief in prophecy and whether or not people believe in what we might think of as something akin to or consistent with the seven mountains mandate.
And friends, if you're listening and you're like, what is that?
Or I think I remember, it's basically that there are seven mountains of society, government, education, media, and so on.
And that the idea is that Christian people should be at the top of every mountain, meaning they should have control of every mountain.
It's in essence a dominionist belief that Christians should have dominion or power in all sectors of human life.
So Paul, would you mind telling us the connections between belief in modern-day prophecy and belief in the seven mountains mandate or something like like it?
Yeah, no, that's really exactly the question that we asked.
So, do you agree or disagree?
God wants Christians to stand atop the seven mountains of society, including the government, education, media, and others.
And so, overall in the sample, 20% agree with the mandate, So again, that's a little bit less than modern prophecy in the population.
But again, a fifth of Americans believe that Christians need to stand on top of the seven mountains.
And the link between the two, again, is very strong.
So, of course, those who disagree with modern prophecy are highly unlikely to say that they believe in the seven mountains mandate.
But a majority of those who believe in modern prophecy believe that Christians need to stand on top of these seven mountains.
So you have a post that came out a little bit after the one that we're talking now, and it really does focus on kind of the details.
I believe in Seven Mountains Mandate.
Okay, great.
What does that mean?
What does that mean?
And so can you tell us what that means?
Like, does that mean I want there to be only Christian leaders?
Can we only have a Christian, like, can you only be in government if you swear on the Bible?
What does that look like in specific terms?
Yeah, this has always been kind of the weakness of the way that sociologists and political scientists have asked about Christian nationalism.
It's just never been really specific and hasn't told us whether, you know, people really want a seaonomy.
So do they want America governed by religious ideas?
And so we decided we really need to ask these specific and quite sometimes quite extreme ideas.
So One of them is whether the United States should only award full citizenship to Christians.
And so this received the least amount of support among all the questions that we asked, but modern prophecy believers, about a third of them, thought that citizenship should be limited to Christians, for instance.
Another one that received more support, and so we have a majority of prophecy believers saying that it's more important to enforce God's will than to protect people's freedoms, And also, they believe in a church veto.
So, half of prophecy believers say that the church should have a final say over whether legislation becomes law in the United States.
And so, just to give us a sense, I mean, that's Iran?
Can I just jump in?
So, you're telling me 28% of Americans believe in modern-day prophecy, and half of those think that the church should have a veto?
Is that what I... I just want to make sure that me and all the other non-sociologists got this right.
That's the math.
Okay, sorry to interrupt.
I just, you know, I think me and people listening are a little taken aback.
14% of Americans might just say, yeah, the church should have a veto over what happens in this country.
Okay, go ahead.
Yeah, that's right.
So they would constitute their own Supreme Court that is, you know, when Congress signs the legislation, we didn't ask in this kind of detail, but Congress passes legislation, the president signs it, and then it would go before the church to decide whether it becomes law in the United States.
About the same majority say that the offenses listed in the Bible should be punishable by government today through the courts.
And more than that, two-thirds believe that the scope and power of the government ought to be limited to what is consistent with the Bible.
So, if you had a sense that both Christian nationalism, but also especially prophecy belief, is linked to a desire for Christian dominion over American democracy, your head is in the right place.
Not every single prophecy believer believes that, but certainly most do.
Wow.
I want to go back to the citizenship question too.
So you said that that's the question that people were least likely and you said it was about a third of modern day prophecy believers believe that in order to be a citizen, you should be a Christian.
So if I do my math, we're talking like 9% of Americans.
So if I lined up a hundred Americans, nine of them would say, you want to be a citizen here?
You have to be a Christian.
And so some of you listening at home are like, well, nine out of a hundred, what's the big deal?
Well, it is a big deal because as we've tried on this show to chronicle and so many other researchers and writers and scholars have chronicled in so many ways, those nine are Most likely to vote.
They're very probably much, they're probably involved in a church that's organizing politically.
They're probably plugged into networks that are pushing forward policies, legislation, whether it's state houses, whether it's a Supreme Court.
I mean, those nine may be doing as much as perhaps 30 or 40 of the people standing next to them.
And so the nine means a lot.
And so we can talk about nine out of 100 and citizenship.
We can talk about 14 out of 100 when it comes to vetoing the government.
But think about the kind of society we're living in, if that's true.
I mean, I don't know.
I'm just sort of blown away by some of these numbers.
It's astounding.
No, I think that's the right reaction.
And we're going to make you an honorary political scientist for walking through that, because that's exactly right, to think about whether those views are It gets a multiplicative effect by participating, because they are more likely to participate in politics.
And I tested that specifically and found that that's exactly the case.
So that does multiply their influence.
And certainly, I mean, those are the views that we're hearing from, like, Sean Foyt, who's at state houses and saying exactly those kinds of things.
So it's very worrisome.
Can I ask, and I know this goes back to something you did a while back as well, but it does pertain to our conversation.
What is belief in prophecy, modern day prophecy, meaning that there are people walking on earth today who are prophets?
What is the correlation there between that and a likelihood towards extreme or even violent action?
Is there a relationship between those two?
Yeah, sadly there is, and it's pretty strong too.
So, modern prophecy believers, you know, as a function of just believing that they have the right answer, that they are empowered by God, that God and His agenda is flowing through them, they believe that their agenda is the right one, right?
And anything that's working against them, therefore, is the work of evil spirits, of the devil.
Right.
And so if that's the case and you need your agenda to prevail, it's no surprise that they're going to turn to more extreme kinds of actions asked in a variety of different ways.
And they all end up saying that giving the same answer that to preserve a traditional American way of life, which they're reading their own, right?
They may have to use force.
They're more likely to support groups that would turn to violent action.
All of these things are more common among prophecy believers.
And it's just that function of believing that they're right, that God is on their side, that they do these things.
Well, let me read a little bit of your most recent post and ask you a kind of takeaway question.
You say, when God's mouthpieces are proclaiming the rightful president is the one who lost, that is a strong signal to prophecy believers that the forces of evil are active and winning.
And the logical conclusion to that belief is what we see in this post.
Prophecy believers must stand on top of the mountain for God to prevail and for the devil to be vanquished.
One of the takeaways I have reading that is that it's very hard, if not impossible, to think about a democracy when you are engaged with this kind of political worldview, that this worldview says we have to be on top.
Regardless.
And so if we lose elections, it's not because of persuasion, it's because of the devil.
Does the anti-democratic tenor come through to you in this work?
I mean, is that one of the takeaways, or where else does this lead your mind?
That is the takeaway.
I mean, absolutely, 100%.
I don't know how democracy with these folks is workable going forward.
Period.
I don't see a willingness to compromise.
In fact, we asked them a different question about whether they think that people like them should just secede and form their own country.
They say yes, which tells you if it's not their way, then either they want to hit the highway or they want everybody else to hit the highway.
And they're willing to use force to drive people out to do it.
Yeah, it's tremendously worrisome.
And frankly, unless elites really tone down their rhetoric and stop trying to whip this up, I don't know how we do it.
And when you say elite there, you mean elite in terms of those with influence.
That could be a Sean Foy, that could be a mega church pastor, that could be a Lance Wallnau, that could be a politician.
A Donald Trump.
A Donald Trump, yep.
Yeah, so elite there means those with influence within the kinds of space and culture.
Okay.
Thanks for translating.
Let me know.
It's funny, we actually did that last time.
We talked about elites and political scientists and sociologists always have a certain way of thinking about that.
I don't want people thinking about Latte drinking folks in San Francisco.
So let's complicate the picture as we close.
And this is why, you know, being an academic is sometimes a little bit complicated and we try to, on this show, tell the whole picture.
So here it is.
Here's a quote from you.
I want to end with something that is vastly underappreciated.
Modern prophecy belief cuts across the major fault lines of American political life.
They are racially diverse, and perhaps most surprising, they are politically diverse.
In fact, as the following graph shows, the most ardent prophecy believers are more likely to be Democrats than Republicans.
So, what am I supposed to do with that?
That messes up some of the story that I think I was telling earlier.
I don't know.
How does that fit in your mind?
It fits because people on both sides of the spectrum, whether white or black or Democrat or Republican, are willing to turn to extremism to pursue the agenda that they believe is the rightful one.
We shouldn't think of this as just a Republican movement, although I think most of the action has been on the Republican side.
We shouldn't think of this as just as white, that this belief is really widespread.
And it's not just sort of traditional evangelicals either.
You can find it across religious traditions.
So it's out there.
And can be whipped up in a fervor to a variety of ends.
And that doesn't make democracy any easier when you have people on both sides who believe that they are right, you know, 100% and willing to do anything to preserve that agenda.
So I think it's entirely consistent, although, you know, the examples we see just have tended to be white and Republican for the most part.
So what this brings me to is something I try to contextualize a lot when people ask me questions about this and I'm wondering how this hits you.
What I tend to think of is if you have a Christian nationalist, I'm talking about Christian nationalists now, not modern day prophecy believers, but you know Christian nationalists who are people of color or black people.
Often tell a story about the country that's like, you know, yes, I kind of believe it's a Christian country.
Yes, I kind of wish that our laws were influenced by the Bible.
But I want that so that our country can live up to its creed for the first time so that it can be a more perfect union and we can have actual equality for all.
It's not a nostalgia story.
Now, there's a lot of you listening that are like, don't care.
I don't want my my laws influenced by the Bible and we shouldn't have a Christian government.
Totally understand.
But for the sake of nuance, that's a different story.
If you're a black person telling that story, a black person who may vote Democrat or have a complex political identity than a white person who tells a story of nostalgia, that we used to have a city on a hill that has gone by the wayside.
The country used to be great in the 1950s.
It is no longer.
And therefore, we need to get back to something like the 1950s rather than the 1960s and forward.
Does that apply here at all, Paul?
I mean, if we think about the ways that we have a lot of different folks believing in prophecy, but as you said earlier, a lot of the action might come on the right-wing side.
And when you say that, I'm not going to lie, I just think of white Christian nationalists, I think of GOP folks.
Maybe I'm putting that into the data and you're going to tell me, hey, it's not fair.
I'm wondering how that hits your ears, you know?
Well, this is actually something that a number of us are trying to wrestle with now, because we see the appendage of white in front of Christian nationalists a lot.
We don't know if that's necessarily justified.
It is certainly in terms of highly racialized issues.
Obviously, there are very different places on those.
But whether it applies to the wildly different Other issues that confront the United States is an open question.
And this is something I do in almost every paper that I write now about Christian nationalism.
I have a section like, hey, is this different for whites and blacks?
And at least in the papers that I've done recently, the answer is no.
There are no differences.
There's a lot of nuance.
There's a really interesting story there.
I think the place where I've gone is to think more about sort of democratic process sorts of things, as opposed to particular issues.
And when I start to look at those, you know, such as the use of force, such as, you know, pursuing extreme politics, I'm finding Christian nationalists on the more extreme side.
And it doesn't matter whether they're white, black, Democratic or Republican.
And there are Democratic Christian nationalists out there.
And the same thing with prophecy, because there's such a tight connection here.
And they reinforce each other, too.
So the, you know, prophecy believers who are Christian nationalists are pretty extreme folks.
Well, this dovetails on, I think, what Matt Taylor argues in Charismatic Rival Fury is that, look, the New Apostolic Reformation is a representation of a Protestantism in the United States that is racially diverse.
There's no way around that.
You cannot make the New Apostolic Reformation a white movement.
He's an Asian-American pastor who leads a multiracial congregation, and he's kind of emblematic of the NAR.
There are many Latinx people who are participating.
There are many Asian folks who are participating.
So, I think what you just said lines up with that, and as always, we have to tell the story as complicated as it may be, and I appreciate you doing that.
Want to thank you.
You have to go give your final class of the semester, which congratulations, and it's student evaluation day, which is like always just a super fun day.
Kind of awkward.
Hey, here's this paper.
Please evaluate me.
I'll be in the hallway.
Let me ask one last question, and that is just any other takeaways.
We've talked about democracy.
We've talked about correlations with Christian nationalism.
You have done these studies.
You've asked these questions.
Anything else about modern-day prophecy belief that sort of seems important for people to walk away with today?
Well, the other interesting thing, and of course, you know, our appearances here have been bracketed by it, or have bracketed the pandemic.
Is there's a really tight connection with health and believing that the belief in prophecy is going to translate into a power to heal and to be protected from illness and this sort of thing.
So, the kinds of churches that were resistant to the COVID shutdowns were most likely charismatic prophecy believers, that they were covered by their belief.
So that's a fascinating thing.
I think, you know, that could come up in the future.
And it certainly reared its head during the pandemic.
So all of that, though, is connected with this kind of core story about power, right?
Power over every aspect of life and democracy and government and workplace and all that sort of thing.
So a really consistent story in that respect.
It makes sense.
You believe in prophecy, you also believe in healing, and that relates to COVID.
I mean, one thing I've been saying recently is that I think in the coming years we're going to come to a realization, and I know political scientists like you are going to do great work on this, of just what COVID did to American religion.
I'm really interested in seeing like which churches grew.
I mean, I have a hunch, but which churches grew?
Which churches didn't?
Where did people go?
Did people actually watch church on Zoom?
Did that?
I mean, because I will tell you anecdotally, I know dozens of people who they left church during the pandemic because they were supposedly watching church on Zoom and their whole family thought they were, but they were really not.
And that was their kind of like slow roll out of there.
I think other people migrated.
So I mean, people who listen to the show know I talk all the time about folks heading to Idaho and other places because and during the pandemic and that kind of thing.
So anyway, what you said there about the pandemic and health, really, I just think in the coming years, we're going to see a lot of great work on what COVID did to American religious trends.
And so anyway, all right.
Well, where's the best way people can link up with you and the ongoing work you're doing on prophecy and other stuff?
Yeah, sure.
So, I post most of my stuff on Twitter.
So, Paul Joop on Twitter works.
And the blog that you see a lot of this work that I try to get out first before I write academic papers and books is called Religion in Public, all one word, dot blog.
And it's a great resource, friends.
If you're not familiar or you haven't gone there yet, you should because there's great stuff there and it's a really helpful public-facing resource for folks.
I want to thank you all for listening.
As always, you can find us at Straight White JC.
You can find me at Bradley Onishi.
You can always use your help on PayPal and Venmo and Patreon and all those things you can find in our link tree.
We have a new series happening and just want to make sure you're aware of it.
It's called One Nation All Beliefs.
It's about the separation of church and state, which I don't know.
It has a lot of bearing on what we just talked about and keeping those two things separate so that all people are equal in the country.
You can check that out on our feed and anywhere you get your podcasts.
