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Aug. 19, 2023 - Stew Peters Show
41:37
LIVE @6PM: Scriptures And Wallstreet- Commercial Real Estate Crisis Incoming
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Time Text
Thank you.
Hey, guys.
Carlos Cortez here.
Hopefully you saw my last podcast in regards to the downgrades that we're experiencing as a country is bleeding into the banks.
But then I also said something about the commercial real estate.
So this podcast is simply about the outlook of real estate.
Many of you have called and said, hey, should I sell my home?
Should I sell this property?
Yada, yada, yada.
You guys get my drift.
Well, it's a little deeper than that.
Obviously, there's a massive, massive credit crunch happening.
Let me explain.
Holy smokes.
This is completely substantial.
We're talking about Possible of 2008 all over again.
Not just residential, but commercial this time.
Last 2008 was auction rate securities with combination of residential and mortgage-backed securities.
We are almost replaying the same thing when it comes to commercial real estate.
Because of the rising interest rates, The violently rising interest rates, there are a massive amount of companies that are defaulting right now to this day in 2023, defaulting on commercial loans.
This has an enormous effect on pretty much everything as it comes to your banking, possibly your retirement, where you Where this recession could hit.
Look, don't be a victim.
Don't listen to Yellen and the Fed.
They are straight lying to us, saying that the economy is strong.
I'm going to show you some data that really says the complete opposite.
And...
It's like the Kramer effect.
Just do the reciprocal of what he's doing.
If he's buying, you're selling.
If he's selling, you're buying.
That's how I feel you need to take the media these days.
It is not a coincidence that expenses are superseding incomes.
How many charges do I got to show you?
Expenses are superseding, are growing faster than your income.
And my theory on that is you cut off the pipelines.
You cut off the fuel sources.
You want to kill fossil fuels.
And this is a massive impact from this administration wanting to kill out fossil fuels.
And now we're starting to see the ramifications of what that policy, that stupid policy, has done by crippling the capitalistic spirit of America.
So unfortunately, because of this commercial real estate crisis we are in the brink of, it is pretty much a layup.
It is a layup that we will have a commercial, we will have a 08 event in the commercial real estate.
So if you're looking at buying property, I would be very leery right now that you're not buying at the all-time high.
As you've noticed, real estate has gone down as of late because of the high interest rate.
Americans just can't get loans, especially if you just graduated college, you got a new job.
It's hard to get a stinking mortgage right now.
I mean, they want a DNA test, a colonoscopy.
They want your firstborn.
I mean, pretty much, it's very difficult to get a mortgage these days.
On top of Stellar Credit, And it's almost a nightmare on top of that.
So what that does is it makes it hard for the banks to lend money out.
It makes it hard for the average first home-time buyer to buy a home.
So yes, the real estate market will adjust.
But what's more scarier is that there literally is over 20 $20 billion in commercial loans and commercial real estate, let alone, that are due.
So this is really, really a huge problem, guys.
A huge problem.
Because we have all these companies that are now telling their employees, go work from home.
There's so much office space right now that the companies, they would really literally just say, hey, Here are the keys.
Take the building because there's no way I can refinance for when I'm used to paying $80,000 a month and now you guys want $800,000 a month.
There's just no way we can afford that.
So we're going to declare bankruptcy and restructure, refile, do everything we got to do to protect our company.
And so you're going to see a lot of that, man.
A boatload.
Look at this chart.
The housing chart.
Affordability index.
People cannot even afford.
Look at this massive, massive meltdown.
They can't even afford basic housing.
You know, there's a guy on my hockey team.
He just made the FHPL. They don't pay a lot of money.
They don't get paid a lot of money, but it's a professional hockey team.
It's in the minors.
You know what he told me?
He said, not only am I excited about playing hockey, but the housing.
They're going to pay for my housing.
He's just sick of just paying rent.
He's more excited that his rent is going to be covered than the few hundred bucks he makes a game.
That's the reality right now.
They're more excited that the housing is going to be covered.
They're more appreciative.
I mean, you just made a professional hockey team and you're worried about housing?
That's how this younger generation is thinking.
It's just so expensive.
You have people moving one hour away from a major metropolitan area an hour away to make a commute to their job or at least work from home just so they can live in an affordable area.
That's the reality right now.
So I'm not really liking...
So I always want to talk about what my concerns are.
And just looking at the data of 2023, guys, there's over 400, over 400 companies that look at this chart that have already defaulted in 2023 alone.
402.
And if you look over the past...
It is on pace to pretty much be like a 2010, which was just coming off of 2008.
But this could be worse than 2008, guys.
So this is going to affect massive unemployment.
Credit card rates are over a trillion dollars in America.
Job layoffs, you couldn't believe.
They're going to automatically reduce commercial spending.
So for you small business owners that rely on banks or even if you own a business and you're trying to get a commercial mortgage to buy a building, good luck.
There's buildings in the country right now that are literally down.
The valuations are coming in.
They're down 95%.
So look at this one building, this AT&T building.
I mean, the owners defaulted on it, and it went from several hundred million dollars to just a measly nine million dollars, and it just defaulted on it.
There are plenty of examples like this, guys.
I mean, we're talking about major, major cities, these companies not being able to pay the mortgages.
And what that is going to do is unfortunately, remember when I told you that small banks are also going to get impacted, this is why I like credit unions, but particularly credit unions that don't participate in commercial lending.
Remember I've always said get away from the commercial lending banks, which is pretty much every bank out there.
But there are some smaller banks that don't participate in commercial lending because it is such a massive, massive risk to the solvency of a bank.
So check this chart out on the small banks.
37% of the average small bank is going to get their deposits from commercial loans.
So as they issue these loans, their deposits come in.
If they're not getting those deposits, I mean...
It's probably a 50-50 shot that most banks are weaker or insolvent.
It is my opinion that most banks are already insolvent.
Now, that's just my opinion.
Let me say my legal disclaimer here.
Everything on this podcast is for educational purposes only.
I am not giving financial advice.
I am a financial advisor.
If you need any advice, give us a call, 813-448-3446.
This podcast is just my opinion, and I will talk about facts, but please do not take anything I say as personal investment advice.
Thank you for that.
So, there's just so much.
I mean, $3 trillion in commercial banks as far as...
Let me check out my notes here.
Yeah, there's three trillion in commercial loans held at banks.
Lots and lots of defaults.
Brookfield had a $161 million default.
And more importantly, 79% occupancy on commercial property, now down to 49%.
So we have an average of 79% occupancy.
You want close to 100% occupancy if you're renting out a commercial building.
We're now down to 50%.
So more than half of the corporations don't need their building anymore is what that suggests.
We have interest rate hikes.
So as these loans, $3 trillion come due, they're not going to refinance at these rates.
They're literally just going to walk away.
And your bank is going to suffer.
The economy is going to suffer.
We cannot dodge this.
This is a freight train that's guaranteed to come.
This is massive.
This will bring us not into a recession.
This will bring us into a depression.
So, I say all this because...
$400 billion is going to be due in 23.
$500 billion by the end of 2024.
And another $470 billion by the year end of 2025.
How are we going to help these businesses, these loans, when we are in a toxic asset environment?
With stupid face in office.
With Jerome Powell and Yellen doing what they do.
How are we supposed to fix this economy when we have this massive commercial lending crisis really just about to hit us with a freight train and no one's talking about this.
I can't freaking believe it.
Just look it up.
Just look up commercial loans defaults 2023.
Just do an internet search.
Read for yourself.
How on earth are you going to protect your money when you have your 401Ks, you have all your IRAs in the stock market?
Fool me once, shame on you.
Fool me twice, shame on me.
There's no fool me three times.
You have to get it right.
You got to protect your principal, guys.
You literally have to protect your principal.
So what are you doing today to protect your money from your bank accounts, from the stock market, from the rising interest rates?
What are you doing to protect your money from the inverted yield curve?
Bond rates have never been this high.
As rates go up, your prices go down.
So you've lost money in bonds.
The yields go up, the rates go down.
There's a seesaw effect.
Companies are walking away.
They're walking away from the buildings And what's scary is when these banks inherit these toxic buildings back, they're going to have to write it down.
They're going to have to write it down at the re-evaluation rate.
The banks are not in the real estate business.
They're in the lending business.
So they don't want to hang on to these buildings.
They don't want to hang on to these properties.
So they're going to have to let it go.
And this doesn't affect commercial properties.
This affects Airbnbs.
Residential homes.
This affects a lot of things.
So for you first home time buyers, get your credit score up.
Get ready.
Because the real estate market is about to be flooded.
Flooded with new inventory.
You're going to see a lot of Airbnb owners.
There's more Airbnb owners and investors than their actual single home for sales.
So the Airbnb craze, they're about to get their teeth knocked in.
Because the loans are becoming due and the interest rates are way too high.
There's gonna be a dip in real estate.
People are not gonna hold.
They're gonna frantically sell and it's gonna drive home prices down.
We will see a massive amount of inventory.
In the MLS, in the market.
So the average metropolitan area is 38 days when it was only taking literally two weeks to sell your home.
Now it's taking double than that.
There has already been a 40% increase in days on the marketplace.
So homes are not moving as fast as they want because they can't get the credit from the banks.
The banks don't want to lend because now they're being really, really tight because they've pretty much lost their you-know-whats to the commercial banking crisis that is going to be happening.
You have rising interest rates.
You have a terrible environment.
You have banks falling off.
Credit card debt aside, job loans, Guys, this is such a big cluster.
I don't even know what to say how massive this is going to be.
You thought the Maui fires were bad?
No, you wait till this hits.
This commercial garbage, this commercial over-lending on properties.
It happened with residential, now it's going to happen with commercial.
The housing market is about to get inundated with volatility.
That's what I predict.
I believe that it will go into 2024.
I wouldn't listen to this whole camp of, hey, don't worry, the market's going to be fine.
The markets, we're strong.
The economy is going to have a soft landing.
We're just going to raise the interest rates one more time, do a little bit of credit tightening, and we will be fine.
Like the federal government does not have your piggy bank in their interest.
So with the interest rate hikes, more banks are going to have more stress.
And unfortunately, these banks rely on commercial loans to help with their deposits, with their cash flow.
So what is the solution?
What are we talking about here?
Well, we have a covenant process as I've said it in the past.
Now what you would have to do basically is take an inventory of what you have.
Say, how much do I have in risk assets, risky assets?
Whether it's real estate, crypto, precious metals, stocks, bonds, mutual funds, 401ks, Know that there's red money involved.
Red money, definition of red money, as you guys watch my show, red money is simply unlimited losses, unlimited gains, a bucket of money that does not have principal protection.
It has unlimited losses, unlimited gains, you don't know what the fees are, there is no control, and there's a spirit of fear, fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
And so we know who operates in fear.
It is not God.
For 2 Timothy 1 says, for I have not given you the spirit of fear, but of love, power, and sound mind.
So we don't want to operate in fear.
We want to be a steward of our assets.
We want to be concerned, and we want to be proactive, but we don't need to fear.
So if you own a property, now is not the time to panic.
Have a cool head.
Um, if you're going to sell it, obviously, you know, you possibly should sell it if you have a buyer, but we need to focus on what we got right now.
And so what we have right now is the one year treasuries are paying five and a quarter.
When you own apartment right now, you're lucky to even get 5%.
So if your mortgage is 7%, you're only making 5%, the cap rate is Is literally lower.
Like the average is four and a quarter on a cap rate.
You're losing money by owning that apartment.
There is no cash flow.
It's a negative cash flow situation.
And you're hoping for the appreciation to balance out and make a good decision.
The problem is that there is no appreciating real estate right now.
There's no appreciating real estate right now because the real estate market is about to get flooded with inventory.
People are not going to be able to afford their homes.
They're not going to be able to afford their commercial properties.
The business owners are just going to let them loose.
And I'm really, really scared because the banks are going to get even hurt even more as more rate hikes come.
Then there's bank balance.
You guys remember the Dodd-Frank Act in 2010.
They said that if the bank goes belly up, That the bank has a right to go in, do a bank bail-in, and that bank bail-in basically means that they will take your 100 grand, 200 grand, whatever it is, and they will use that money for the greater good of the bank so that it can be solvent and not insolvent.
And they will pay you back on their terms.
So this is why you see a lot of people buying precious metals.
They think that precious metals will be a safe alternative.
But really, precious metals is a red money category.
There's no guarantee that your precious metals will go up if your bank goes belly up.
There's no guarantee.
The bad thing about precious metals is the portability aspect of it.
like you can't go to win Dixie and say, Hey, give me a piece of loaf or bread or eggs or milk.
They don't have a system in place to melt your silver or gold and give you a certain currency.
I don't see that happening.
If anything, I see everything going more digital.
As you guys know, like Whole Foods right now, you can scan the palm of your hand and pay for your I mean, you'll upload your credit card based on your palm reading and you're scanning your hand paying for your Whole Foods.
That's where this is going.
Because you guys know the Luciferians want to what?
They want to track, trace, and control.
Track, trace, and control.
That should be their stupid campaign.
Hi, guys.
Let's not make America great again.
Let's track, trace, and control.
You...
Into obeying our Luciferian agenda.
That should be their running ticket.
That should be their slogan.
So, if you're a Democrat listening to this, just gave you a free one there.
Because that's what you guys want to do.
Track, trace, and control.
I mean, you guys are all on power trips.
You don't make any sense.
The libtard way, that's the way you subscribe to.
Take God out of everything and bastardize the word of God and bastardize pretty much everything that is essential to the American pillars.
And live by your own understanding.
That's your way.
And play victim card on everything.
Oh man, so I was just doing a little bit of research, guys.
It was just like mind-boggling.
Holy smokes.
Mind-boggling that...
Look, I knew the commercial real estate was going to be affected with the rising...
I didn't think it was this bad.
I didn't think it was this bad, guys.
There are over 400 companies that already defaulted in 2023.
Commercial real estate is going to tank.
Credit cards.
I think of all the single moms that can't even buy diapers, milk, and eggs for their kids, let alone gas, and they're making minimum wage And they don't have the opportunity to go to college or start a business.
They don't have the ability to spend on human capital to do whatever they gotta do to make it by.
And that's who I really have a heart for is that struggling family.
Because it really is tough.
It breaks my heart that these people in Washington have an evil plan.
And it's not working out.
And it's not Democrats.
It's the Republicans, too.
It's the rhinos.
It's the puppet masters of stupid face.
I mean, this is really, really going to devastate America.
So it's my job to sound alarm.
As you're driving by your town, wherever you're at in the country...
Even in Canada, wherever you're driving, pay attention to the office buildings.
Maybe you're on lunch break.
Maybe you still go to your office.
Maybe you don't.
Pay attention to how many storage units you see building around your area.
And how many vacant commercial properties you see?
Guys, it is scary, man.
It is scary.
So what that basically common sense is, hey, let's get rid of our office building, put it in storage.
And if we need anything, we just go to storage because we don't need an office.
Our kitchen table is our new office.
Our desk is our new studio.
Take me, for example.
This whole podcast is in my home.
I have a studio in my home.
I go to the office when I meet clients, but I'm meeting clients virtually on Zoom in this podcast studio.
I don't need to leave my home.
That's why I built this studio here, so I can be committed to the camera.
I can be committed to virtual appointments.
I can be committed to consultations.
At any moment's notice.
And I mean, I'm like the perfect example of what's going on worldwide.
Like everybody is doing Zooms and phone calls and FedEx.
There's no need to go to an office.
So this is a major, major default.
I predict that your Airbnbs can go down 40%.
What are you going to do if your Airbnb is down 40%?
One thing if you do own an Airbnb, what I will recommend is Is beat out the hotels.
Make sure that your Airbnb, if it is in a good area, like mines are, I mean, a four bedroom is going for $119 a night.
Like even in Orlando, our Airbnbs are down 40%.
Orlando is the number one visited, besides Vegas, the number one visited city, town, most tourist spot in the world.
It used to be Vegas, but now it's Orlando.
It always goes back and forth.
You would think it would be Times Square, but it's not.
It's a tie between Orlando and Vegas.
It's a coin flip.
But even in Orlando...
Next to pedophilia, I mean Disney World, your Airbnbs are down 40%.
And that is scary.
That means people don't have the money to go on vacation or they're using credit cards or they're overspending, which is another problem.
So if you have downturns on the number one visited tourist spot in America, number one or number two, how do you think your Airbnb is doing?
It's time to wake up, guys.
It's time to be proactive.
So we want to help you.
All you got to do is give us a call.
813-448-3446.
The banks, I've been saying it for a long time, are just not safe anymore.
It's going to be terrible when they start losing their you-know-whats from the commercial lending and the banks don't have the ability to recuperate.
Let's see what Yellen does to try to save these banks.
I predict that possibly even 50% of the banks that are up and running right now are going to be insolvent.
So I'm not here to fearmonger and tell you to buy gold and silver because I don't even know if that would go up.
Maybe Bitcoin would go up.
I'm not here to predict.
I'm not here to do any of that stuff.
But I will say...
I will say, if you are trying to buy precious metals, please contact my trusted source.
You don't have to pay 20% commissions.
You can buy from a company that honors God, country, and family.
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As Bidenonomics and your 401k go into fruition in the rest of 2023, guys, it's time to reflect.
It's time to reflect.
If the market's been up roughly about 18% year-to-date, we will...
So what's happening right now is we've had a rally the past month.
And it's hitting this resistant level, the 50-day moving average, and it's bouncing right back down.
So we've given up some gains over the past weeks because of this recent turmoil in the markets.
The market can sell off.
But what I'm going to say is I totally see there's going to be more sell-offs happening in the next few weeks.
So if you have money in the stock market, just be prepared for another 3-5% correction.
Because of those 200-day moving average and that 50-day moving average.
A lot of pressures right now.
And we'll see what the Fed wants to do in the next coming weeks.
But the red money, guys, is going to be extremely volatile.
The VIX is creeping up to 18.
And once that does creep up to 18, now you're going to start to see some volatility.
Straight up.
I told you once the VIX was around less than 13, it's going to be calm and collective, but something will bounce back like a rubber band.
It could be this commercial real estate bubble.
It will be bigger than 2008.
It would affect jobs.
It affects layoffs.
Once people start getting laid off because the businesses are following Chapter 11, they're going bankrupt.
Then their Airbnbs are gone.
The first thing they're going to do is panic sell.
They're getting rid of their Airbnbs.
Now you're going to have all these properties on the market.
It's going to be a supply-demand issue.
Over-over-supply more than demand.
And those prices of those real estate is going to crash.
It's that simple.
It's my prediction.
I could be wrong, but take me with a grain of salt if you want.
And like I said, use this for educational purposes only.
I'm just sharing my opinion.
I could be wrong, but I'll leave that up to you.
What I will say is that there are going to be buildings.
Buildings that these big corporations are walking away from.
We saw at PIMCO, $1.7 trillion just last year.
They did it.
This is not a...
A conspiracy theory.
This is actual facts.
Commercial loans are going to affect the overall U.S. economy to the point where there's going to be bank runs.
There's going to be bank runs like you wouldn't believe.
I'm afraid for many of you that have called our office and said, oh yeah, I got three, four hundred thousand dollars in the bank, that you will not be able to access that money.
Because you weren't proactive.
Give us a call.
We want to give you solutions.
Some of it is precious metals.
Some of it is private insured account.
Some of it is managed money in treasuries.
But we have to come up with a great ratio for you.
And we want to talk about a good balance approach.
Some of you just want to guarantee private insurance account that's paying 5.25 for the rest of your life.
Like we have...
And for those of you that don't care about the growth of your money, you just want a guaranteed paycheck.
We have products that are paying a 15% sign-on bonus.
And if you're over the age of 65 years old, they will pay you 7.25% for the rest of your life.
Like, that's pretty substantial.
Huge.
So take advantage of the rising interest rates.
We can flip it where these rising interest rates benefit you.
They don't benefit car owners with automobile payments.
They don't benefit credit card holders, but they do benefit private insured account owners because those interest rates are high.
You can get a guaranteed lifetime.
Income if that's what you're into.
Or you can just get some high participation rates to take advantage of the index strategies that we have been using successfully over the past 15-16 years.
Give us a call if this interests you.
813-448-3446.
You can click on the description below and book a consultation with us or just simply email us if you have any questions.
Info at CortezWM.com.
Again, that's Info at CortezWM.com.
I'm really excited.
I mean, Really excited about everybody that's been calling.
We've been getting a lot of great reviews.
We've been getting a lot of cool emails.
Some awesome stories.
People...
People getting information on Social Security, what to do with Social Security, rollovers.
Just a lot of amazing feedback from you guys.
So I just want to say thanks for watching our channel.
I hope you find it informative that this will be a place of just a resource for you where there's no really hidden agenda.
I truly try to bring the conversations I'm having The conversations I'm learning about because I'm still learning about this economy.
It's ever-changing.
I will never stop learning.
And I will always do this as long as I have breath in my lungs and as long as there's somewhat positive feedback.
And our aim is to focus on a cross.
Speaking of which, so in my readings this morning...
My quiet time.
I hope you guys are having your quiet time, by the way.
Habitually seeking his face.
And this mic is only one way, but I hope you guys are seeking his face on a day-to-day basis so that he can speak to you.
So I read this commentary Bible and it talks about Don't intimidate people.
Actually, I'll just read this.
In the margin of your Bible, due violence to no man might be more correctly rendered.
Put no man in fear.
Maybe the Lord has blessed you with a high degree of intelligence, or maybe he has blessed you with physical strength or financial means.
Don't intimidate people with these weapons.
Don't take pride if people quake in their boots when you come near.
You know who I'm talking about.
That's not the way of the Lord.
Jesus spoke the world into existence.
Talk about power and authority.
Jesus literally spoke the whole world into existence.
Yet people marveled not at his strength but at his grace.
Most powerful entity in the sovereign world and the universe.
People marveled About His grace and not His strength.
Luke 4.22.
That really spoke to me.
If you're really, really good at something, you don't need to brag.
You don't need to boast.
You don't need to do anything.
But just show grace.
Luke 4.22.
I hope that can give us some humble pie.
I could talk about many, many examples of where this hits home for me.
When I was younger, I had a lot of blind spots.
I still got blind spots.
I'm still a working project.
But it is God's grace that heals us every day.
It renews our mind.
It renews our mind, right?
Romans 12, renewing of the mind.
His grace literally renews our mind.
Because if we can practice humility, even in our own strengths, God will bless us.
For sure.
That is my prayer.
Anyways, I hope you accept Christ as your Lord and Savior as I have.
I hope that you acknowledge that you're a sinner and that we can't do life without him.
And that you ask for your name in the book of life.
That is my prayer for everyone that has watched this podcast.
If you stuck with me this long and you hear my rant, This podcast is AIM is a cross.
We talk about politics and money and retirement strategies because it's fun.
But in all seriousness, this is my platform so that I can be a light in this bloody dark world that we are in.
God bless you guys.
I'm out of here.
Don't forget to like and subscribe on our Rumble channel on Stu Peters Network.
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Give us a like and a sub.
I'd really appreciate it.
Thank you so much.
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Got a bunch of cool new websites, new calculators, a lot of cool things headed your way on our website, so be on the lookout for that.
I've been really, really busy, so I know I said I wanted to get it up last week.
But I'll get those calculators up for you guys on our website so you can see how much money you do and you don't own when it comes to your IRA and why you should convert it into a tax-free bucket.
You can do Roth conversions on this calculator and plan for it because I really feel like if you have an IRA, you actually own half of it if you don't convert it between now and the rising taxation.
So what I don't want to happen is We got all these bank bail-ins, right?
With this commercial real estate crisis.
Another 08 event coming.
And then they do this toxic asset relief program.
You guys remember the TARP? And then they go after your retirement.
That's what I don't want to happen.
I don't see that being alarming right now.
But it is something to think about.
What if they just start taxing IRAs even higher?
Which I think you know the answer.
And since...
I can't say certain things.
You guys read between the lines.
Anyways, God bless.
I'm rambling.
Love you all.
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