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Oct. 8, 2025 - Freedomain Radio - Stefan Molyneux
27:05
BITCOIN HITS AN ALL TIME HIGH! Twitter/X Space
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Hello, my friends to the show that never ends.
We are talking Tuesday the 7th of October.
That's 2025.
And let me just tell you, um, James, the intrepid soul with whom I wrangle to bring philosophy to the world.
James gave me a presentation yesterday, which was about Bitcoin's all-time high.
Now, I don't mean to blame James.
Obviously, I like to.
I want to, because otherwise, I mean, what's the alternative?
I mean, take responsibility myself.
No, no, no, no.
That's something I talk about.
I mean, you don't really want to do it, right?
So anyway, we're doing a show uh this morning.
I didn't get to it last in the night because uh what was the reason last night?
Uh I did something.
Something to do with the show.
Oh, yeah, that's right.
I did a call in show.
All right.
So I was going to do it last night.
I was figured, oh, what's the problem?
You know, hit an all-time high yesterday afternoon, itty bitty ditty coins, and then I'm like, it's not big yet, I'll just uh I'll just do it in the morning.
You know, because what does eight hours mean uh in in the land of Bitcoin?
Well, uh let me tell you, it means quite a bit.
Because, as I'm sure you are aware if you follow this stuff at all, and again, not blaming James specifically, just more generically.
Uh it's James but with a G, you know, like Gemma or Gem or Janja.
So uh this morning I was like, oh, I think I'll just boot up and see what Bitcoin's at.
And there was a smoking Arizona crater where the all-time high had been.
And so it was in fact time to revise the presentation.
And so thanks again to James for doing that, while I naturally lounged in a hammock and uh picked up my toenails with a toothpick.
All right.
So it was in fact 3 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, Monday, 6 October.
Bitcoin hit a new all-time high.
Sorry, I'm just gonna make sure I block James in case he wants to come in and set the record straight.
Okay, good.
So it was 126,000, these are US dollars around 3 p.m.
And then this afternoon, it dipped to 121 403.
Now, I'll give you my little mental tip.
Here's my little mental tip, just so you know.
Uh, you might find this helpful too.
So, my mental tip is let's say Bitcoin is at 100, right?
Last time you checked it was at 100.
Now don't obsessively check it.
Don't obsessively check it, unless of course you're right about to sell.
But what you want to do is you want to be happy at the price.
So if it's at 100, I check and I say, Oh, but it's gonna be 95.
Now, let's say I think it's gonna be 95, and it's 98.
I'm happy.
I'm up three from my guest.
Whereas if you say, Oh, I bet you it's at 105 and it's 98, oh seven large gap, it will crush your heart like a walnut under the heel of a well-heeled brontosaurus.
So, and uh, listen, I'm happy to take your questions and comments.
Uh Bitcoin preferred, not absolutely essential, but that's the key thing.
That's the key thing.
So uh we're getting the coin, we're getting the prices from CoinMarketCap.com.
Uh let me screw my courage to the sticking place here and see uh what are we at at the moment.
Oh, I have to do it in US dollars out of love for my delightful American friends.
All right, what are we at?
122, 177.
Uh this is 5.35 p.m.
So not bad.
Not bad.
So yeah, it went to went dipped down to 1214.
Uh it's recovered.
And you know what?
I I I uh I have the weird, it's kind of a weird coincidence of things.
You know, you think you came here to hear about Bitcoin.
Oh no, let's go over my resume for the 10,000th time uh over the last 20 years.
But just so you know, like I studied a lot of economics, both in grad school and also I've read a lot of Austrian economics in my teens and twenties.
I uh was involved in uh taking a company public, not once, but twice, uh, in the same way that if you have a really bad meal, you get to taste it.
Not once, but twice.
And I also was a programmer it at a stock trading company and learned a little bit about how computer code works with stocks, bonds, ETFs, investments, assets as a whole, right?
And of course, in this case, we're talking Bitcoin.
Now, for those of you've been around when it's crashed from like 20,000 plus down to 7 or 8,000, that is almost certain to never happen again.
In my humble opinion, right?
I'm I'm not an expert.
I'm not licensed.
I'm only licensed to thrill, but I'm not licensed, and uh nothing I say is any kind of investment advice.
Make your own decisions, do your own research, talk to your advisors, take their advice, not mine.
But when it's gonna dip, then the dip is going to get caught, because there are long and short positions, right?
So you can make money if the stock goes up, obviously, and you can make money if the stock goes down.
And so most places, because they don't have a whole lot of flexibility in terms of the money they can lose, because they're often leveraged, right?
So what they do is they'll say, okay, I'll bet a hundred bucks that this thing is going to go up, I'll bet eighty bucks that it's gonna go down.
So if it goes down, you don't lose too much.
If it goes up, you're good.
You just you know, you get your profits minus the 80 or whatever.
So this is pretty uh simplified, but my point is that there are a lot of correction mechanisms built into Bitcoin now because of the institutional adoption after the last year to 18 months.
So when the when the price falls, in the past, when it was like hobbyists and Austrian addict lunatics like me, when it fell, there was no bottom, because there was no institutional coding.
And honestly, like the majority, if I remember rightly, the majority of stocks are bought and sold on computer code, which is the kind of stuff that I, again, completely fortuitously happened to be programming for a while in my first professional gig as a cobalt programmer.
But I know, isn't it weird, like they do all this programming, and yet I can actually talk to people.
Ha ha ha!
It's a strange coincidence of skills.
But anyway.
So in the past, when it was just hobbyists and and uh NCAPs and libertarians and so on, then when the price would fall, there was no institutional long short complexities to buoy it back up.
So don't worry, don't worry when the price dips, it's gonna go back out.
And of course, of course, all you want to do to make yourself happy in the Bitcoin universe.
It's called the zoom out.
So uh if I look at it over five days.
So five days ago it was 119, now it's 122, it's still up.
Five days, two percent.
That's pretty good.
That's pretty good.
A month ago we were cooking at 112, now we're at 122, that's 10k up over a month.
Ooh, should we do it?
Should we do it?
Let's do it.
Six months ago, what will be at?
We were at 72.
I have 72, yeah, 72,000.
72,000.
It's not quite double, but it's pretty close.
It's pretty close.
So that's pretty good.
Uh oh, let's do it a little further.
A year ago, it was dipping at 60, so it's doubled in a year.
Five years, dun-du.
Five years.
Well, in 2020, it was gosh, what were we at?
Sorry, this is not the best interface, but it was around 10K.
Sorry, let's go back here, because I think it takes me to the bottom, which is the bottom of the y-axis.
So sorry.
Uh so a year ago, 62 and change.
Uh six months ago, 76, and uh one month ago, we were cooking at 112.
But five years ago, it was uh 10,000.
Uh and if you want to really, really get excited, I mean, the kind of excitement you don't see every day.
You really want to get excited, uh, you can go out to all, right?
So the five year growth in Bitcoin, 1,045%, 0.16, because that makes all the difference in the world.
Year to date, like one year, sorry, calendar year back, not year to date, calendar year back, 96.31%, year to date, 30.77%, six months, 54.2%, one month, 9.9%, five days, 1.24%, one day, one day, minus 2.27%.
So you just you just need to zoom out.
Hopefully, hopefully you're not on your deathbed.
Because you know, zooming out when you're on your deathbed is uh tricky to say the least.
But just remember to zoom out.
So what's going on?
Not investment advice.
Remember that.
Just random, idiot amateur observations.
All right.
So Bitcoin dropped about 2.3% October 7th, 2025, that's today.
Trading around 121733 after it hit its ATH.
Oh, see, that's nerd for all-time high.
126K earlier this uh session set a new all-time high.
The pullback erased some recent gains and brought a crypto market dip of about 1.4%, with altcoins, ptoy patuy, like XRP and Dogecoin falling 5 to 7%.
All right, so what's what's going on?
So this information is based on market data, on chain activity.
Uh I think that's 50 Shades of Gray, and sentiment from sources like X discussions, which are full of nothing but facts and truth.
All right.
So Bitcoin surged to a record 126, 279, October 6th, driven by strong ETF inflows, the second largest ever recorded.
So the ETF exchange traded funds, these are more institutional uh buys.
ETFs open up uh Bitcoin to I hate to say boomers, because I'm like I'm like a hair's whisker away from being one myself, but it opens up Bitcoin to people who just want to throw money at investment advisors and don't want to worry about you know wallets and security and uh uh TF2FA and stuff like that.
So it is a way for people to get involved in Bitcoin without the technical risk and confusion.
And of course, everyone's heard these stories of like what is it, a quarter of Bitcoins have been lost or something like that.
Some guy threw out his computer and spent the next year or two trying to get the government to let them look for it.
Uh and uh some guy had a flash drive with like 200 grand, no, 200 was it?
Huge number of of Bitcoin's um value, and he had like 10 password attempts, couldn't figure it out, and I think it just uh it did that uh men in black pen to the face thing, so everyone's heard that kind of stuff.
So in ETF inflows, second largest ever recorded, spot demand and derivatives activity, and investors are locking in gains.
On-chain data showed over 1600 Bitcoin moved to exchanges in the last day, signaling selling pressure from short-term holders.
So when stuff moves to exchanges, uh that's good.
That's good.
Open interest in futures compressed from 12.7 billion to 12 billion, reflecting leverage unwinding while hourly RSI cooled to about 36 from overnight levels above 70.
Sorry if this all sounds like faxing to you, but I want to get through to this to get to your questions and comments.
X users describe this as a healthy retracement or shake out after 11 green days, with some expecting a retest of supports like 118,000, 120,000.
So you know the old things, paper hands and diamond hands.
Diamond hands are the ones who hold on to Bitcoin, like Charlton Heston and a gun, and the paper hands uh fold and and sell and portnai.
Portnai, is that the right phrase?
Paper, paper hands is uh is that.
It's like the weirdest game of rock, paper, scissors, known demand.
And so there are lots of people who are into Bitcoin to hold on to it for the sake of saving society from hyperinflation and rescuing the world from the scourges of fiat currency exploitation, debt, unfunded liabilities, and war.
And then there are people who just want to make some coin.
I mean, in general, I prefer the ideologues, but it doesn't really matter because the people who want to make some coin are going to come into the space anyway, and they are gonna take their profits, right?
You make some money, you take your profits, and you take your profits for a variety of reasons because the ETFs usually aren't just focused, obviously just on big ETFs are not just rappers, usually just for Bitcoin, they have a bunch of other stuff in there as well.
And of course, you want to take your profits because if you've ever had an investment advisor, they give you this lovely little piece of paper, more than one usually, which says uh basically uh how how C sick do you get in market oscillations, right?
Are you willing to risk a lot, high gains, high losses?
Is it moderate?
Is it small?
And so on.
And in general, the closer you get to retirement, my understanding is the more valuable it is, or the more sensible it might be to take less and less risk.
So they need their liquidity, because if uh there is a certain band of risk that is exceeded, they need to claw back to stay within that band of risk, depending on how many people have checked low risk on their portfolios.
And if there's a bunch of boomers who swarmed into the Bitcoin marketplace as a result of the ETF wrappers, ETF rappers, good name for a band.
Let me just make a note of that.
All right.
So if the boomers came in, then the boomers usually have low tolerance for risk, so if the money goes up, they're going to want to sell to stay within that up and down stuff.
Again, this is sort of my obviously foolish understanding of it all.
So this is a standard correction in a bull market.
It's n it's never going to go straight up.
That's that's the reality.
It's never going to go straight up.
Like for week after week, it's never going to go straight up, unless we're in total hyperinflation, Wimar Republic freefall.
But that's the downside is it's never going to go up.
But the upside is it's also never going to fall, like it used to, because there's going to be a bottom, a cushion, right?
A bounce, right?
Dead cat bounce.
Live Bitcoin bounce.
So they have a correction, recycling liquidity from weak hands to stronger ones from paper hands to diamond hands.
Historical patterns show such resets often precede resumed uptrends, especially with 99% of supply in profit, and no signs of panic selling.
This is wild.
I mean, it's wild to be able to see the whole market through the blockchain.
Like the fact that you can say 99% of supply is in profit.
I mean, that's a whole lot harder to do with stocks a lot of times, but because you can't see necessarily the whole thing.
People could have stuff in their basement that's just paper.
So it's pretty wild that you can see that, right?
It sets up for potential higher lows, supporting a push towards 130,000 or more US later in October.
Uh so what have I got here?
Looks Algo said, you know what comes after Bitcoin runs 15%?
Liquidations.
Yeah.
It goes up and people take their profits.
I mean, it's it's how you know you know how it is if you if you gamble.
I don't I don't gamble, except with my reputation.
But if you are around people who gamble, I mean the only way that you can win is to take your winnings, right?
You make a certain 10%, 20%, don't pull a full Dostoevsky and just stay in there until you lose your marriage.
But you gotta take your profits, and that's what people are doing.
Not that I'm saying it's gambling, but I'm just saying that you want to take people want to take their profits, right?
So the D the US dollar index broke out technically, gaining against major peers while 10-year treasury yields rose, creating a risk off environment for assets like Bitcoin.
Bitcoin's recent rally had benefited from US dollar weakness linked to potential US tariffs and rate cuts, but this reversal pressured risk risk assets, right?
So as the US dollar becomes stronger, then people flee out of safe haven, right?
Gold, uh silver, and into uh other other assets.
And Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is still not considered a core asset, it's considered to some degree an inflation hedge by a lot of people or a um, you know, when when the the stukas of fiat currency are screaming down, uh everybody scatters and hides in the basement, and then when the planes go away, everyone comes back out, and so uh when when fiat looks shaky, then people will flee to Bitcoin.
If uh the dollar looks stronger, people will emerge out of their bunkers and buy some bucks.
On X uses users noted this as a key macro headwind, with some linking it to institutional short selling in related markets like small cap stocks.
So what does this mean when I say the US dollar index broke out?
Technically, well, I think it uh ate a lot of chocolate and got some zits.
It also looks like the US dollar index, which measures the dollar's value against a basket of major currencies, rose to 98.44%.
Sorry, it rose to 98.44, marking an increase of 0.34% from the previous close of 98.11.
It's important to not draw broad conclusions from this, of course, as the US dollar is still 10% weaker year to date, and the larger market did not respond strongly to this signal.
Remember, 40% of all dollars that have ever existed, US dollars were created pandemic and post-pandemic.
So uh touch.
And I I had a debate with some guys about MMT theory, because I've been hearing about hyperinflation since I first began reading about Austrian economics as a teenager.
Because I was that popular with the girls, because you know, literally if I'm Mises, cool, I'm getting hot and bothered just thinking about that guy.
All right.
A stronger dollar historically correlates with Bitcoin pullbacks.
It reduces appeal for dollar denominated assets and tightens global liquidity.
So if this continues rising, it could send the correction beyond lower supports like 115k delaying the bull run.
However, this is counterbalanced by ongoing global stimulus.
China and Japan, which could limit the downside.
So Bitcoin hit resistance at a little over 122,000 after the all-time high, forming a potential bearish double top pattern on some charts, with RSI signaling overbought conditions post rally.
Aggregated data shows buyer exhaustion with CVD.
Cumulative volume data delta falling due to dominant sell orders, right?
Cell sell, again, a lot of which are automated in order to limit uh exposure.
This aligns with a Monday reversal pattern after weekend consolidation as New York traders returned and initiated sales.
Because again, I mean, you know, you've seen this in a million high finance dramas, you know.
I gotta be awake for when the market opens in Japan.
Well, Bitcoin, the market is always open.
Uh the traders still work, well, they're, I don't know, seven to seven or whatever nutty stuff they're working with on their uh blow and hookers uh treadmill, but it's always open, right?
So but but there is still gonna be dips and ups when the traders uh boot up to begin with.
So short-term bearish, says some people, due to potential for extended consolidation or deeper retracement to 117,000 gamma flip zone, also not a bad name for event.
But bullish longer term says it can uh bullish longer term as it confirms strong underlying structure.
Analysts note the move index favors bulls, and a hold of 118 to 120k could lead to fresh highs by mid-October.
So, as goes Bitcoin, so also goeth the AU, the gold.
I know that I uh what was it?
Nobody ever said that Bitcoin was fool's gold like Pyright, but that's the stuff when I was looking for gold up north.
Oh, I told you we'd bring up my resume when I was looking for gold up north.
When you got fool's gold, it was very tragic.
Gold searched past $4,000 an ounce.
It's up 50% years to date, year to date, driven by central bank purchases and debasement trade sentiment.
Peter Schiff, of course, was uh, I think doing the Macarena and uh some sort of TikTok dance or something to do with uh oh by gangham style.
So that's uh fun to watch.
So what's the impact?
It's kind of mixed.
Well, Bitcoin and gold often correlate as hedges against inflation, gold's outperformance temporally drew capital away.
The Bitcoin to gold ratio fell from 31.6 ounce per Bitcoin down from 40 in late 2024.
Early morning on-chain movements included large Bitcoin transfers, possibly seized assets or whale activity contributing to the deal.
Yeah, what was the guy?
It's a couple of weeks ago.
Somebody transferred like, I don't know, half a billion dollars worth of Bitcoin without even a test transfer.
I mean, oh my gosh, I guess they know what they're doing.
So this overlapped with profit taking from overheated levels, and some ex-users speculated on liquidity quote, sucking events tied to other crypto news.
People, of course, who are in a bunch of different cryptos.
We talked about the Doge and uh I think it was um XRP, dipped even more so than Bitcoin.
And sometimes if people are in a bunch of cryptos, those other cryptos go down more, they have to sell Bitcoin to cover those losses.
So that's a possibility.
Bitcoin dominance pulled back from 59% resistance to 58.7, potentially shifting liquidity to altcoins.
No major panic is evident as spot ETF flows remains supportive overall.
So what is the impact of on-chain selling pressure liquidity events?
Bearish in the short term due to immediate selling pressure and potential for altcoin rotation, but bullish as it represents a leverage reset without breaking key supports.
That's the aforementioned 115 to 118k.
This could attract buyers at lower levels, reinforcing the up trend.
Watch a guru reported at 11.13 a.m.
Eastern, just in 160,000 worth of crypto longs liquidated in minutes.
So that's good.x or at DeFi Weimar, W I M I R. I wonder if that's Weimar Republic, probably, right?
Uh it says uh Bitcoin is dumping millions of Bitcoin Ethereum.
Sorry, I let me oh no, I can't See it.
I can't see it.
That's me, not you.
Let me just go to uh landscape should do it.
Landscape.
There we go.
Bitcoin is dumping millions.
Oh, words, stop re repaginating.
Bitcoin is uh sorry, Binance is dumping millions of Bitcoin and Ethereum at all-time highs to liquidate longs, classic exchange manipulation.
And almost done, and then I'll take your questions and comments.
Appreciate you guys for the update.
This is the stuff that's like real throwaway, because like nobody's gonna care about this, apparently eight minutes after I'm done, but I think it's important to talk about what's going on.
Broader macro uncertainty and delayed data releases.
So mixed signals from upcoming U.S. consumer price index data, October 10th, and potential potential delays in jobs reports, added hesitation with ECB's Lagarde dismissing Bitcoin's value, adding to sentiment drag.
Global factors like U.S. shutdown risks and stimulus in Asia created caution, leading to a risk off pause.
X discussions highlight this as a minor setback with optimism for rebound post data.
And I mean, uh, if you've been following all of this stuff, I mean jobs data, CPI data is so heavily politically manipulated that, you know, by the rumor, sell the news.
Uh nobody can trust any of that stuff anymore.
Uncertainty could prolong the dip if data disappoints, pushing Bitcoin towards 115,000.
However, positive surprises, if there are dovish Fed signals could flip this bullish very quickly.
And last but not least, Bitcoin ETFs have seen a combined $4 billion net inflow over the past seven days.
Monday, ah, I mean, that's just one trading day, saw 1.19 billion dollars alone, right?
So that's that's pretty wild.
We won't know if the net inflows or outflows for ETS until after today's market closes, which I guess is now ish, but we would expect to see some ETF holders taking profits as well.
Overall, this decline seems like a healthy consolidation in an out ongoing bull market with strong fundamentals like ETF inflows and institutional adoption intact.
Analysts project a potential rebound to 130 to 135,000 by late October.
If supports hold, they'll watch 118,000 as a key level.
So also, of course, if you've got some Bitcoin bitcoins, plural, if you've got a few SATs that are stacked, then you probably have a job or some other source of income.
And so you don't need to take profits in that way.
You don't need to report profits on a quarterly or annualized basis.
You don't need to uh you don't have a bunch of people taking out, right?
So if you run a finance company, people have parked their money with you, and they will start taking it out when they retire, right?
You know, the whole 401k thing uh in Canada it's called the RSPs, where you put money away in a tax-reduced circumstance when you're making good coin, and then you take it out and you're taxed at your income after you retire, which is lower, and it's a way to try and prop up the retirement market.
And so if you run a finance company, got people who constantly need money, right?
They they want to sell some stuff so that they can go and travel around Europe because apparently they just love handing over biometric data to the uh uh the upper echelons of the EU bureaucracy.
And what was it I saw?
It's like 350 bucks for some people to get into the States these days.
Something nuts.
Anyway.
So when you run a finance company, you've got a much shorter window that you have to show your profits in.
You have a huge expense, uh, IT uh maintenance, you've got office space, usually in pretty swanky gold dusted downtown stuff.
Uh, and you've got uh, you know, high paid coke addicts that you need to.
I'm just kidding, it's a cliche, right?
It's a cliche.
But we'll take the cliches once in a while.
But you've got a lot of high-paid salaries, you've got to pay people their bonuses, and so you have a burn rate.
A burn rate, of course, in business is how much money you need every month just to keep the doors open.
And in business, this is the big thing I learned as an entrepreneur.
Cash flow is king.
A lot of businesses, you know, you've got your your metronome of every two weeks.
You've got to pay your employees, every month you've got to pay your bills, you've got to pay your rent, and so on, you need your money aside for taxes.
But sometimes big corporations settle 30, 60, 90 days.
Sometimes you have to hassle them if they're having a slow year.
And it doesn't matter if you're gonna get paid in two months if you have no money for payroll right now.
So bridge financing is key, but that stuff can really accumulate and eat you alive.
And in fact, I remember signing very big notes with a personal guarantee to make payroll sometimes.
So you've just got this constant drawdown of money that you need to liquidate, and so there's gonna be sales.
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