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Nov. 28, 2023 - Freedomain Radio - Stefan Molyneux
32:53
BITCOIN UPDATE!
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All right, so it looks like Bitcoin is of interest.
All right. 800, and this is from today, $820 billion standard chartered bank predicts Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of 2024.
I think that's US. That's a little low for me, but that's what I hear, right?
Never bet against Bitcoin from November 24th.
Performance since August 10th, 2020.
This is when MicroStrategy, that's Sailor, right?
Adopted its Bitcoin strategy.
So, August 21st, 2020 to November 24th, 2023.
Bonds down 22%.
Silver down 22%.
Gold down 2%.
NASDAQ up 30%.
S&P 500, Standard& Poor's 500, up 36%.
Bitcoin, 221%.
221%. Bonds minus 22.
Silver minus 16. Gold minus 2.
NASDAQ 30. S&P 36.
Bitcoin 221.
That's some sweet stuff.
Here's another post.
We are seeing the greatest divergence ever witnessed between Bitcoin long-term and short-term holders.
Short-term holders either continue to sell for profit or loss or become long-term holders eventually.
During blow-off tops, long-term holders sell off into the bull market and short-term holders buy due to FOMO. What happens if the long-term holders don't sell compared to prior cycles?
Like I think over 70% of bitcoins just haven't moved in quite a long time.
People are just hanging on like grim death, right?
So if the long-term holders don't sell and the demand goes up because of ETFs and a variety of things, right?
Or even shorting, I suppose, right?
So if people aren't selling, and this is obviously Econ 101, I'm sorry to be so obvious, but if people are reluctant to sell because they anticipate that the price of Bitcoin is going to go up, but the demand increases, the price of Bitcoin is just going to go through the roof.
I mean, that would be, I'm not telling you to buy or sell anything.
There's no financial advice here.
I'm just talking about the basic econ.
Of the situation that if people expect the price of something to rise and the demand increases, that price will go up very, very fast and very, very, very high.
The largest cryptocurrency has gained about 130% this year.
That's good. The 12 spot Bitcoin ETF applications are from Grayscale, 21Shares and ARK, BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco and Galaxy, Fidelity, Valkyrie, GlobalX, Hashtex and Franklin.
JP Morgan said the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETFs should happen within months and probably before January 10th, the final deadline for the ARK 21Shares application.
Now, I don't know why.
Yeah, the Bitcoin halving is coming, what, five months?
So, I don't know why, but I know why.
I'll tell you why these ETFs, in my view, are going to blow up.
Again, there's no financial advice here.
I'm just telling you my particular thoughts.
I'm not an economist. I'm no advisor or anything like that.
I'm just telling you my particular thoughts about it.
Do you think the ETFs will actually happen?
I do. Yeah, I do.
I do. Now, Why I think it's happening is something like this.
So the financial advisors who don't really understand Bitcoin have been saying to people – this is all made up.
I have no knowledge of this, right? I think they've been saying to people – people are saying, well, what about this Bitcoin thing?
It's like, well, you know, it's not really backed by anything.
It's kind of loosey-goosey and, you know, it's a bunch of propeller heads and it's got no intrinsic value.
It's not like gold or parts of a company which at least are reflected in physical assets or fixed capital assets.
So, you know, it's, you know, now at the beginning, of course, it's like you've got to be kidding.
I mean, some made-up nerd money, you might as well be investing in Monopoly bucks, right?
Now, but, you know, it's been 15 years, right?
It's been 15 years and it's gone from a penny to, you know, close to $52,000 and it's lasting, right?
So the financial advisors at some point, well, first of all, they would just dismiss it as airy-fairy nonsense.
That's number one. And then what they would do is they'd say, well, you know, it's really volatile.
And volatility is like, it's this word that just boomers flee from, right?
Now I understand that. You don't want a lot of volatility when you're about to retire because you don't need double the money probably and you certainly don't want half the money because then you can't retire.
Volatility, right? Volatility is a plus.
Volatility means interest in the asset.
Now, a price decline means the asset interest is decreasing, but volatility means that there's a lot of trade going on.
There's a lot of people in the market.
So that's a good thing, in my humble opinion.
So now, of course, at some point, whether it's their grandkids at Thanksgiving dinner saying, come on, man, it's been 15 years.
This thing's gone up more than any other asset in human history.
Non-voting shares of a company that never pays a dividend has value, but Bitcoin doesn't.
I get the non-voting aspect, but shares are a slice of a company with a market cap and fixed assets and a talent stack and all of that.
So, no, non-voting shares of a company never pays a dividend.
Yeah, they have value. It has value.
No, honestly, I mean, don't go to the other extreme, right?
Because, you know, a slice of apple has a slice of apple, right?
Sorry, that's a bit tautological, but I think we're all educated enough to understand that.
So at some point, though, whether it's through the grandkids or the kids or whatever it is, or just looking at, right?
Oh, Bitcoin, gosh, wow, it's really going up.
At some point, people are going to be phoning their financial advisors and say, okay, so what is the story with Bitcoin?
And they're going to be mad. You told me not to.
It was too volatile. It was too risky.
It was nothing. It was there. And it's going through the roof.
It's doubled, more than doubled this year.
What else? And inflation is hitting me, so my savings are evaporating.
At this inflation rate, I lose half my savings in seven or ten years or something like that, right?
So people are seeing an alarming angle at the Titanic of Fiat and are saying, okay, well, maybe it's a little rickety, but it's a lifeboat and it's going to stay above the water.
So at some point, people are going to be like, fear of missing out?
I mean, FOMO doesn't explain really anything, right?
It's not fear of missing out.
It's fear of going down with inflation.
Like, inflation is pretty horrifying.
So for those of us who've been around the block a couple of times, inflation in the 80s and 90s was brutal.
And then they put a cap on it and they managed to hold it back to some degree for quite some time.
And now inflation is back, right?
And, you know, you can just the number of, it's usually women, but maybe some men too, just, oh, everything's so expensive.
It's like, well, did you think that your fantasy wish list of everything you wanted the government to pay for wasn't going to affect you in any way, shape, or form?
Like, I don't understand. That I haven't, I mean, I really don't have any sympathy for that.
Is there any threat from the SEC takeover of the internet?
Michelle, what can I say?
What am I going to say? No!
Yes! I mean...
Compared to what? Never isolate threats.
Never ever ever do a one-variable analysis.
A non-variable analysis destroys your free will.
A non-variable analysis is like Well, the only thing that matters about asking a girl out is my anxiety and fear of being rejected.
That's the only thing that matters.
It's a one-variable analysis.
My fear of being rejected and my belief that I will be or could be is the only variable.
Okay, then you won't do it.
You won't do it.
It's like saying, well, should I buy real estate or should I invest in whatever, right?
Let's just say the old, should I invest in stocks or should I buy real estate?
Well, if you only do one variable analysis, then you'll program yourself one way or the other and you won't have any choice in the matter.
One variable analysis is self-programming so that you pretend you're not taking any responsibility or risk.
So if you say, well, should I buy an apartment?
Sorry, should I buy a condo or should I invest in stocks?
And you say, well... I can't live in a stock portfolio and I'm paying rent, so I'll save money on rent, I'll buy a house.
Okay, that's just one variable. That's just one variable.
There's no answer as to whether you should buy a house or invest in stocks.
Not objectively. There's costs and benefits to both.
There's costs and benefits to both.
If you say, well, you know, this girl could say, no, I hate being rejected.
So then if that's the only variable, you won't ask her out.
But if, on the other hand, you say, well, if she says, yes, she could be the love of my life, have kids, family, a wonderful life of richness and blah, right?
Good. So if you say, sorry to be annoying, if you say, is there any threat from the SEC takeover of the internet?
Well, there's always threats from everywhere at all times, no matter what.
Could an asteroid hit the earth?
Yes. Does that mean you shouldn't do anything?
No. Right?
Right. Is there a threat?
Well, compared to what? Compared to what?
economic collapse, war, hyperinflation, right?
Don't imagine that there's a non-risky decision or choice ever in life.
Ever. Right?
Never imagine there's any single decision you can make that is not risky.
Right? I mean, after the show, I'm probably going to go and exercise, right?
Is that a non-risky decision?
It's not. Sometimes when I exercise, occasionally when I exercise, I injure myself.
I mean, it's been a while, but, you know, it could happen, right?
Or I just exercise a little bit too much and I'm a little sore and it's kind of unpleasant or whatever, right?
So if I exercise, there's risk involved in that, right?
If I don't exercise, there's risk involved in that too.
If you ask the girl out, there's risk involved in that.
If you don't ask the girl out, there's risk involved in that too.
And one way that people get paralyzed is they keep searching around in their head for non-risky decisions.
They say, well, I want less risk.
Less risk is also more risk.
Because when you choose the path of less risk at all times, you're training yourself away from handling and managing high risk, which means that you're going to forever be playing for small stakes, which means no big wins.
Well, I don't want to get rejected, so I'll just ask out the, I don't know, ugliest girl around.
Okay, well, there's risk in that too, right?
Does this make sense? I suppose I meant in comparison to other governments like of El Salvador, the one that just elected the anarchy guy.
So what does that mean? Is there risk that the government could do X, Y, and Z on the internet versus El Salvador?
But saying there is risk or there is not risk, how on earth could you possibly quantify those risks?
Sorry, one sec. How could you quantify those risks relative to what governments may or may not do?
You can't, right? You can't quantify those risks compared to what governments may or may not do.
Thank you.
you We don't know. We don't know what's going to happen in Argentina.
We don't know what's going to happen in Salvador.
We don't know what's going to happen with the ETS. We don't know what the government's going to do.
Analyzing future risk arises from what?
Analyzing future risk arises.
Obsessively, excessively, when you don't have all the variables, analyzing future risks arises from what?
It arises from a lack of confidence that you can handle change in the moment.
Got to think ahead, got to think ahead, got to think ahead.
Well, just trust that you'll be nimble and intelligent and do something smart in the moment.
Then you don't have to worry about the future as much.
Does that make sense? I'm not saying never plan, obviously, you know, happy medium, right?
But stuff's going to happen that is absolutely unpredictable.
It's an impossible task.
I mean, keep your eyes on things and all of that.
If governments throw a wrench in the internet, it would cripple their tax collection ability.
Well, I mean, the whole economy, right?
Plus, the government needs the internet for CDBCs, right?
So, yeah, I mean, look, I get it.
I mean, I understand, you know, you've got to keep your eye on the future and be concerned, but...
Just trust that you will handle it, whatever comes along, trust that you will handle it in a reasonable and intelligent way.
And also trust that, I mean, look, let me ask you this.
What percentage of things you worry about in the future actually come true?
What percentage of things you worry about in the future actually come true and you worrying
about it was helpful?
What percentage of things that you worry about and when you worry about things you worry
about what you're going to do about them, how many times have what you worried about
in the future come true and you worrying about it helped?
Thank you.
Yeah, it's about 1%.
Michelle, that's the same number for me.
I mean, I thought about this many, many years ago.
It's about 1%, right?
Yeah. Somebody says 5%.
That's good. That's good, 5%.
Single digits for sure, though, right?
I think it can be helpful.
helpful otherwise it's just, right, masochism.
I mean I gotta tell you, I, you know, my sort of career arc was not exactly predictable.
you At all, right? At all.
So... Overthinking about the future is because we, when we overthink the future, it's because we lack belief in our ability to navigate changes in the present.
The worrying is often worse than the actual thing.
When you can control the variables, right?
So if you're worried about getting lung cancer from smoking, you can stop smoking.
So worry is good.
People have this, like, worry without differentiating it.
Like, oh, worry is bad. Oh, the anticipation of the thing is worse than the thing itself.
Nope. Right?
Worrying about lung cancer is not worse than getting lung cancer.
So if you control the variables, then worry is a good thing.
If you don't control the variables, worry is kind of pointless, if that makes sense.
And that differentiating, can I control the outcome or not?
Can I control the outcome or not?
I can control what I say and do.
I can't control what other people do in reaction or response or whatever, right?
So, differentiate. I don't like people who say...
All anxiety, all worry is bad, because that's not true.
It's just not true. I worry that I'm gaining weight.
Okay, well, exercise and eat different, right?
So you can control those variables.
I'm worried that I'm going to end up alone.
Okay, well, then you can make yourself more attractive.
You can get out there. You can ask girls out or boys out, whatever.
So you can do something about it, right?
What will the government do with the internet?
I don't know. Worry goes away when you can control the outcome, I think.
No. No. No.
Worry doesn't go away when you can control the outcome.
What inspired the show about demonology?
I don't understand. I told you exactly what inspired the show about demonology.
If you don't listen to the show, I'm not going to answer questions about the show.
I went through 10 minutes about exactly what inspired me about the show about demonology.
That was a morning vision I had.
Worry goes away when you can control the outcome.
No. When does worry go away?
When does worry go away?
When does worry go away?
I mean, we've all had, I guess, worries or anxieties, and then they go away.
When does worry go away? We all know it does eventually, right?
Or sooner rather than later, usually.
when you die, now then it just gets transferred to other people who worry about themselves dying.
Worry goes away when the empirical evidence contradicts the anxiety.
Thank you for listening.
Have a great day.
Yeah, when it's overcome.
So, if you're worried about smoking causing lung cancer, your worry will tend to diminish when you quit smoking and you exercise and do all the things that are going to minimize your chances of getting lung cancer, right?
Then your anxiety... Will you occasionally think of it?
I would imagine you would, but, you know, for the most part, right?
When you find something new to worry about.
Oh, that's optimistic. Sorry about that.
Haven't had a chance to listen to the show about demons yet.
Well, that's kind of rude. Why would you ask me a question about a show you've never even listened to?
That's kind of rude.
I mean, that really is showing up to the book report having not even watched the movie, right?
So... All right.
Let's get back to our...
Comments. Jason A. Williams on X says, when BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF is approved, they will need to acquire several hundred thousand Bitcoins to fulfill end customer demand.
There is no way they can acquire this much Bitcoin without moving the price significantly.
This is the core issue they're currently working on now.
So the boomers who have the most assets, right?
The boomers are like, well, hang on.
You've been wrong about Bitcoin and you've been wrong about inflation and we're going to need to balance the risk in our portfolio with the least risky asset.
Now, of course, for a long time, Bitcoin was considered too risky to get into people with conservative...
Like, when you sign up with an account, often they'll say, what's your level of risk tolerance and so on?
And, of course, most people who are about to retire, what do they say?
They say, well, my risk tolerance is pretty low because I need to retire, so my risk tolerance is low.
And so now they're saying, okay, the risk of inflation is now higher than the risk of Bitcoin.
That may be something that's going on in people's minds.
So this is why all these ETFs are coming up.
And also when the price of Bitcoin has been stable enough, it moves into a particular category of more conservative investments, less penny stock speculative stuff, right?
Why are females becoming so antisocial even in bars?
I don't know if women realize this is ruining society as a whole.
I mean, but... I mean, a lot of women live in this delusion that they don't need men, right?
I mean, it's really...
Go through a list of the top 20 most dangerous occupations and then look at the percentage of men in those occupations.
You're not logger and fisherman and so on, right?
The list of the top 20 most dangerous occupations and then look at the percentage of men.
It's all 95, 97, 98, 99% men, right?
So... Well, and men with pornography think they don't need women, right?
Who don't have as much of a drive, right?
So that's not good either, right?
All right, so let me get back to these.
This was from Zero Hedge, November 27, 2023.
Total U.S. debt rose how much overnight?
Right. 26th, 27th?
Total U.S. debt rose how much overnight?
Reported on the 27th of November, 2023.
How? How much did it go up?
Is it true that inflation gets passed on to others?
Businesses pass it to consumers, customers and employees, landlords pass it to renters, and the hourly renter gets stuck with the bulk of it because you can't pass it.
So when CPI prints at 4%, the hourly renter experiences 12%.
Inflation gets passed to others because whoever gets the inflated money first gets it at full value and then it declines in value as it goes through.
And businesses can't just pass it along to customers because if the price of your goods have risen 10%, not every business will pass those costs along directly to the customer.
Some will pass 8% or 9% or 11%, and so there is a diminishment because you're all in competition with each other, right?
Overnight, $100 million. Well, that's very optimistic.
The U.S. debt rose $61 billion in one night.
Hit a record $33.827 trillion on Friday.
That's $173 billion away from $34 trillion and we hit $33 trillion just two months ago.
So, two months and change, two months and a bit to add a trillion dollars to the debt.
And this is a time when the You know, this is like when the Indiana Jones, like the treasure chamber starts to collapse and you just grab what you can write, right?
So, yeah, it went up almost a trillion dollars in two months and change and it rose 61 billion
dollars overnight.
UBS freezing some withdrawals due to liquidity challenges.
Regarding your deposit withdrawal, this is the 24th of November, dear so-and-so, we apologize for the delay in processing your bank deposit withdrawal request.
Due to unforeseen liquidity challenges at our UBS branch, we regret to inform you that we are currently unable to fulfill your request.
We understand the urgency of your financial need and sincerely apologize for any inconvenience caused.
Yeah. This came out just recently from Ben Rickert.
Bank of America has not cleared wage payments for employees at Win Las Vegas today.
Expect more of these types of liquidity problems in the near future.
Win employees have not been paid today due to a problem at the Bank of America.
So... Um, RFK Jr.
I mean, to be fair, he did want to jail people who were skeptical about climate change, but JFK said about Bitcoin, quote, if the government can punish you by shutting down your bank account without even charging you with a crime, they have the ultimate power to turn us into slaves.
So, that's interesting.
Also, if you could, just by the by, I think I'll close up shortly here.
But if you could, do me a favor.
I would like to get more feedback from Yowl about the show.
You can go to fdurl.com slash survey.
fdurl.com slash survey.
If you could fill that out, I would like hugely appreciate it.
Russia accepts Bitcoin?
Yeah. What about the people who say Japan has two to three times its worst debt to GDP but still hasn't collapsed?
Well, okay, Japan has collapsed in terms of population.
Like they have a birth rate of like 1.2.
Japan has collapsed in terms of population.
Young people are anxious, depressed, and not moving on with their lives.
So culturally, it has collapsed as far as that goes.
I mean current rates Japanese people will be gone in less than a century
And people accept and understand that Japan can fix its problems without revolutionizing its society
So if Japan just takes away all of the zombie company support and takes away all the regulations and the currency manipulations, they still have an intelligent and educated population and can turn their economy around.
So, people in Japan, people recognize that Japan can turn it around, it's just a matter of political will.
But I don't think that other people, other people, other countries and other cultures have too many obligations and too many challenges and too many unfunded liabilities, and they can't just turn it around.
All right, let's see here, what else do I want to say?
Oh yeah, I was going to post this in if you could.
If you could take the survey, I would really, really appreciate it.
If you could too, it's what, end of the month?
Yes, two days to the end of the month.
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I do feel plus or minus to some degree, just honest about my experience and feelings.
I do feel plus or minus to some degree as I get to the end of the month.
Apologies for being rude.
I accept that I'm asking questions out of the blue without prior knowledge and expected you to carry the burden.
I got excited that you're exploring the realm of angels and demons.
Thank you for your time and knowledge. Thank you for the tip.
Perfectly acceptable. Without the tip, I accept your apology and I appreciate that.
It's a little tough when I'm trying to manage a conversation with a whole bunch of people here and you come in with stuff that other people already know.
I'm glad that you're excited, but if you were really excited, wouldn't you have listened to it already?
Just a thought. Oh no, when did it come out?
Today? Yesterday? I can't remember.
Anyway, so yeah, perfectly fine.
I appreciate the apology. No harm, no foul.
No problems whatsoever.
Oh gosh, yeah. So I did a call-in show yesterday with a guy.
He lives with his wife.
They've got two kids. He lives with his wife.
How long has it been since they talked at all?
How long has it been since his wife and he talked after the last conflict?
They're two little kids in the house.
Thanks, Jared. Another subscriber benefit.
Remastered past premium shows that have not been available for years.
Yes, this comes off the old message board.
We had some incredibly spicy shows way back in the day, and they've been remastered, and they sound fantastic, and they're available back as well.
Have you posted that narcissist chat yet?
I can't see it. Yes.
Did I? I did post a chat with a guy. This is yeah. So yes, I did. Oh no, the other narcissist one.
Yeah, that's been posted. This is a guy who claims that his wife is a narcissist.
It has been three months since the husband and wife have even talked.
Three months. Three months.
So I took that one as an emergency call, because can you imagine how torturous it is for the children that the parents aren't talking?
I mean, can you imagine?
Maybe you haven't had that experience, but I think it would just be absolutely appalling and terrifying for the children.
How is that possible?
Yes. Yes.
I can't imagine not talking with little kids around.
Well, you know, I'm sure that they say, okay, I'm going to the grocery store.
Fine, you know, but they haven't had any conversations, really.
So that was a real emergency and one of the few times I've yelled at someone on the show.
I've just yelled at him directly because it just took a little while to cut through some of the thoughts.
Yeah, it's horrible for the kids, right?
It's just horrible for the kids.
Is it barking mad? Yeah.
I'm going to put this in too, that if you're having trouble with the app or don't have coins, you can just go to freedomain.com slash donate and help the show out.
That way, I would appreciate that as well.
So I'll just wait for another minute or two in case there are any last trickles and dribs and drabs and just remind you of all the great stuff that's at freedomain.locals.com for subscribers.
And I think this Wednesday, it's been a while since I did a purely subscriber show.
I think we'll do the second hour, subscriber only, so we can get into the really private and supercharged, superheated topics there.
Through that process. So that will be subscriber only.
So just be aware of that for Wednesday night.
We'll do the first hour in general and then second hour.
Second to maybe third hour we'll do subscriber only.
Alright, looks like we've cooled down.
Thank you everyone so much for coming by.
I really, really appreciate your time and attention today.
Have a wonderful afternoon and evening.
We will talk to you tomorrow night.
I am not going to do the Friday night show at the regular time.
I'm sorry for that, but I have needs of my own, you know.
I'll have something else, but I will do it probably later in the evening on Friday.
So I'll keep you posted about that.
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All right. Thanks, everyone. Lots of love.
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