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Nov. 12, 2023 - Freedomain Radio - Stefan Molyneux

20:59

12 November Livestream - Bitcoin Update!

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	There we go. Good morning, everybody.
	It is the 12th of November, 2023, and I hope you're having a wonderful day.
	Welcome to the new camera.
	Hopefully it'll work. I've heard that there's some overheating issues, but we'll do our very best to make it through the show.
	And yes, I just got a little bit tired of looking like a pasty half-dead zombie omelet, so I am going to...
	So I spent this morning setting up the camera.
	And yeah, it looks nice, right?
	It looks nice and good flesh tones and all of that.
	So there you go.
	There you go.
	All right. Hit me with a Y if you'd like a bitty coin update.
	Would you like a bitty coin update?
	Would you like a bitty, bitty, bitty, itty, bitty update?
	Itsy-bitsy, teeny-weeny, yellow polka dot bikini!
	Up you daisy. Okay, let's do it.
	Okay, so for the first time in years, crypto markets are beginning to see tons of new liquidity.
	Starting November 2022, crypto markets have added how much money American in value?
	How much money American in value have gone into crypto?
	And of course, you know, by crypto, we basically mean Bitcoin.
	What have we got?
	200 billion dollars!
	It is...
	It's actually 600 billion dollars.
	Since November 2022, crypto markets have added $600 billion in value.
	That's plus 75% jump in one year.
	And that's very good.
	So there was a lot of years of outflows from crypto market and the return of liquidity always causes historic moves in crypto.
	Now, however much you want to make that about crypto.
	Oh yeah, this is funny.
	Okay, so yearly lows are great support indicators, right?
	So yearly lows.
	What was the yearly low of Bitcoin in 2014?
	What was the yearly low in Bitcoin in 2014?
	Oh, tragedy.
	Oh, great tragedy.
	In 2014, the yearly low was $4.00.
	2012, the yearly low was $4.
	2013, the yearly low was $65.
	2014, $200.
	2015, you could get a Bitcoin for $185.
	Isn't that wild? You could get a Bitcoin for $185.
	2016, $365.
	2017, $780.
	2018, $3,200.
	2019, $3,400.
	2020, $3850.
	2021, $27,734.
	Yearly low prices.
	2022, a little bit of a dip.
	$15,479.
	2023, $16,000 and change.
	So I just wanted to mention that.
	Seems kind of toasty.
	Seems kind of toasty.
	Bitcoin Lightning Network is how much cheaper than Visa or MasterCard?
	Bitcoin Lightning Network is how many times cheaper or more expensive if you want to go that route?
	How expensive is it relative to Visa?
	Visa. So the Lightning Network is approximately a thousand times cheaper than Visa or MasterCard.
	Visa, MasterCard, cooking around 3%.
	Bitcoin Lightning Network, 0.0029%.
	So that seems important.
	Oh, by the way, did you know that if you add testosterone to men's System administering testosterone substantially decreases lying in men.
	Men lie less when they have higher testosterone.
	Isn't that wild?
	Just wanted to sort of mention that.
	All right. So let's see here.
	Retail investors sold nearly $16 billion worth of stocks last month, the highest amount in two years.
	This is as of three days ago, November 9th, 2023.
	Retail traders stopped chasing the 2023 rally as FOMO evaporates.
	Net sales from the group total almost $16 billion in October.
	So why are people...
	Why are people selling out their shares?
	Why are people cashing out of the market, do you think?
	What is going on?
	To buy Bitcoin? Yeah, maybe.
	Although some people are waiting for the ETFs, of course.
	No! To buy groceries, Michael!
	That's exactly right. Do you know how many people live on the edge of their finances?
	Have you known people like this?
	Or are you someone like this?
	Living right on the bleeding edge, surfing the fiery crypto inflation frothing bladed edge crevasse.
	Canyon edge.
	Close to the edge down by the river.
	Right. Yeah, it doesn't matter.
	It doesn't matter how much money you make.
	It doesn't matter how much money you make.
	I remember many years ago talking to a doctor who made, God, he made like $400,000 a year, and he was broke, broke because he put his kids through school, his kids needed money, and he had a bit of an addiction to an expensive car habit and all of that, and it's just like, boom! Boom!
	Oof, it's rough, man.
	And yeah, they've got to pay their taxes, but I don't know if that's an October thing for people, but that's just a very real thing.
	Do you know how much debt people are in?
	Do you comprehend this?
	This is a really annoying thing.
	I apologize for that. Do you know how much debt people are in?
	it's staggering. Inflation is being temporarily bandaged up through
	debt. Now debt of course is this too shall pass, right? Debt is well
	expenses are up but it'll pass like in business if you know you got a two-week paycheck cycle
	but you don't get paid sometimes for sixty to ninety days
	so what do you do? What do you do?
	Well you just get a bridge loan.
	A bridge loan is pay paycheck until, like pay my payroll until the income comes in from the stuff I'm selling to larger corporations.
	So, yeah, people are betting that inflation is temporary.
	Spoiler, inflation is not temporary.
	Inflation, in my view, will only increase.
	So U.S. banks have fallen to an all-time low against the Standard& Poor's 500.
	So bank stocks relative to the S&P 500, banks are cratering, and they fall into their very lowest level.
	And of course, there is no money in the bailout.
	That doesn't mean they won't print any, but of course if they print any, that just means inflation will get worse.
	Consumers have borrowed more than they can afford.
	Default rate on credit card loans from small lenders has seen a sharp spike to 7.51%.
	Default rate on credit card loans from small lenders has seen a sharp spike to 7.51%.
	This is the highest level ever seen.
	Higher than the dot-com bubble.
	Higher than the 07-08 financial crisis.
	And credit card interest rates are often still over 20%.
	So consumers are going to be overloaded with high-costing debt.
	Oh, by the way, it's worth...
	I don't know if you know the comedian Bill Burr, but he did a whole speech trashing the story of your enslavement many years ago.
	I just wanted to point out, nothing in particular, but Bill Burr's wife, this black woman, she gave double fingers to Trump last night.
	I just thought that was interesting.
	You might want to check out the video.
	Seems a bit petty. All right.
	So... So, the US now has a record $17.29 trillion in household debt, a record $12.14 trillion in mortgages, a record $1.6 trillion in auto loans, and a record $1.08 trillion in credit card debt.
	And of course, student loan payments just resumed for the first time since the pandemic, with the average payment of $500 a month.
	Car loans are at a record 10%.
	Credit card debt rates have hit a record 25%.
	It's...
	You know, perfect storm is one of these really overloaded terms, but...
	That's kind of rough. People don't know how to live below their means.
	What is the current US GDP? What is it?
	17, 18 trillion a year?
	Something like that. Something like that.
	It's rough, man. It's rough.
	And what else have we got here?
	Delinquent commercial real estate loans at US banks have hit their highest levels in decades.
	.
	U.S. banks are sitting on an estimated $650 billion in unrealized losses on their bond holdings.
	The 60-plus days delinquency rates of the subprime-backed ABS that Fitch tracks rose to 6.1% in September.
	This represents a record increase. And, yeah.
	The commercial real estate stuff, you know, everybody looks at business to consumer like B2C, but massive, massive sections of the economy are business to business, and that stuff is largely invisible to most consumers.
	If you've worked in business, then you know how big the B2B economy is, but everybody looks at real estate for individuals, but...
	Real estate at the business level is...
	Massive. And real estate, pandemic, post-pandemic, people working from home, people getting gig economy jobs, you know, people switching to things like Uber, right?
	If you switch from a business job, like an office job, to Uber, then you don't need the office space.
	So commercial real estate, which was heavily invested in over the dot-com boom because everybody was centralizing, is really falling apart in many places.
	And that's rough.
	That's rough. It's massive overhead, but of course people have thrown huge amounts of resources into building commercial real estate, and if it ain't going to last, or it isn't lasting, that's pretty bad.
	Alright, Bitcoin.
	This is as of yesterday.
	Bitcoin has a larger market cap than ExxonMobil, JPMorgan, Walmart, Visa, and Tesla.
	Bitcoin has a larger market cap than Visa.
	Is that not something?
	So, let's see here.
	If I didn't get anything else that's important.
	Ah yes, November 10th, PayPal has approved...
	PayPal has now approved to offer Bitcoin and crypto services in the United Kingdom.
	PayPal has been approved to offer Bitcoin and crypto services in the United Kingdom.
	Which is pretty good.
	It's pretty good. Now, hit me with a why.
	Hit me with a why if you've ever felt that you're too late to Bitcoin.
	Bitcoin. Do you ever feel like, ah, I missed the bus!
	It's all too late!
	Yeah, it's too late.
	It's too late!
	You get told that all the time.
	Okay, let me give you some perspective, my friend.
	So, you're not.
	Bitcoin is 14 years old.
	Alright? Now, imagine thinking that you were too late to invest in Apple...
	In 1994, would that be a good investment in Apple in 1994?
	Because in 1994, Apple was 14 years old!
	I think, I'm no expert and don't take any advice from me about anything to do with finances, but I think it's gone up a smidge since 1994.
	What is that, 29 years?
	I think it's gone up a smidge, Apple, since 1994.
	You can tell me if I'm wrong.
	Alright. Now, can you imagine, would it be too late to invest in the internet in 1997?
	1997 some sort of internet forward company, right?
	So it is extraordinarily early Thank you.
	Thank you.
	What percentage of the world has adopted Bitcoin?
	What percentage of the world has...
	10%?
	Sorry, don't mean to give you feedback before I give you feedback.
	What percentage of the world has adopted Bitcoin?
	Oh, man, you guys, I hate to be annoying.
	Less than 0.05% of the world has adopted Bitcoin.
	Right? What's that, 1 in 2,000?
	Less than 0.05% of the world has adopted Bitcoin and with that absolutely tiny slice of adoption, Bitcoin has become the best performing asset known to mankind.
	You really think you missed the bus?
	I'm going to show you a chart.
	I'm going to show you a chart.
	BTC adoption.
	Alright, I'm going to show you a chart.
	And let's look at And again, I'm not giving you any advice.
	I'm just giving you some facts.
	Make your own decisions. Don't take any advice from a philosophy guy about anything.
	Maybe some philosophy advice.
	That's about it. But look at this.
	Look at this chart. 18.
	I just need to make notes so I can put this in the video afterwards.
	But look at that chart.
	Zoom in on that. So that is the adoption of technology in the US and that's where you are with regards to Bitcoin.
	So this is light bulbs, phones, radio, airplanes, televisions.
	Oh my gosh. So where's the image?
	I can't tell you where the image is.
	It's in the chat. If you're going to not pay attention, don't ask everyone to deal with you multitasking.
	It's rude. Did you know baby elephants are born weighing approximately 250 pounds, making them the world's biggest babies, right next to people who complain that they're too late to Bitcoin?
	All right. A Thanksgiving Day how-to.
	I thought this was very funny. So it's a bottle of wine divided into thirds.
	The first third is...
	Thank you for inviting us to dinner.
	Ah, you have a lovely home.
	The second is...
	Bitcoin is not dead? No, I didn't use a trust FTX? Yes, I do think it will go back up.
	And the third...
	Part of the bottle of wine when you're getting down to the bottom is financial revolution, decentralization, self-sovereignty, unconfiscatable, no middleman, carbon-negative mining, banking the unbanked, balancing the grid, Bitcoin, not crypto!
	I can imagine that there's been some dinners that have gone like that.
	Did you know about this?
	This is a while ago, but eight Marxist female mountain climbers wanted to prove that women were just as good at mountain climbing as men.
	They picked the easiest peek.
	They refused any help from any men along the route.
	When asked over the radio by a man, yuck, how they were doing, they gave evasive answers.
	We're fine! Even though one of them was actually sick and dying.
	They got disoriented in the snow and all eight women ended up freezing to death.
	And therefore, it was up to an all-male search party to come and retrieve their bodies.
	I guess that kind of evasiveness.
	Are you okay? I'm fine.
	I'm fine. Okay, well, I guess you did.
	The number of addresses holding more than $1,000 worth of Bitcoin has hit an all-time high for the first time.
	Very, very good.
	Very good. Let's see here.
	Oh yeah, taking into account mortgage rates, local house prices, and local incomes, buying a home in markets like L.A. and Miami today is more expensive than it was in 1981 when mortgage rates topped 18 freaking percent.
	It's more expensive to buy a house now than in 19...
	And 1981, I actually knew a guy who had a condo and his payments were making his eyes bleed.
	Just horrendous. Alright.
	Oh yeah, this was good.
	This guy wrote, by the time I'm 67, over $600,000 will be paid into Social Security on my behalf.
	That money would have been worth $1.9 million if I'd gotten a 5% return.
	My annual interest would be $95,000, right?
	That would be your, right? The government promises me $3,000 a month at 67, which is only $37,000 a year.
	How is this not theft?
	Oh, gosh, how slowly they awake.
	How slowly they awake.
	Coca-Cola went public in 1919, so would investing in it during 1935, is it too late?
	Uh, no.
	No, that's not right.
	1919 plus 14 is what?
	1933. 1935 would be 16 years.
	We're talking 14 years.
	All right. Sorry. Sorry to be annoying.
	Hope I'm not wrong. Hope I'm not both annoyingly superior smuggins and wrong.
	Hopefully. Hopefully. Sometimes doing math on the fly is a bit of an Achilles heel, but we'll do our best to keep it sane.
	Mortgage rates will hit 18% again.
	Yeah. Immigration is a self-correcting mechanism.

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