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May 24, 2021 - Freedomain Radio - Stefan Molyneux
59:51
BITCOIN: WHY THE DIP?!?
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Time Text
Hit me with a Y if you got a couple of Bitcoins.
Hit me with a Y if you got a couple.
How relevant is the topic going to be for you guys?
I'm going to think very relative.
We got a lot of Ys.
Yes. All right.
Good. Good. I love that China hates Bitcoin.
Well, I'll tell you what's going on with Bitcoin.
Just so you understand.
I was just thinking about Stefan and he appears.
Quick question. Did you think about me with pants or without?
Because maybe I'll stand up and let you know.
F that, I have less than one.
Oh, you're not a whole coiner?
Well, now's your opportunity, right?
Now's your opportunity. You need a strategy coming into this game?
Eh, I wouldn't say so. I have one of the physical Bitcoins from 2013.
I hope Bitcoin will dip again this upcoming weekend.
Oh, you're waiting for the perfect time?
Yeah. Yeah, you know, that's just called paralysis, right?
Like waiting for the perfect time for everything.
A Caucasian coin, people remember them.
I have some Bitcoin and then my dog swallowed it.
Oh yes, those tragic boating accidents.
It's really pretty rough.
So I'll take a couple of voice chats in a few.
I just wanted to get into what is going on.
Usual caveats, of course, not investment advice.
Don't take anything I say seriously.
It's all just pure nonsense from a theoretical standpoint.
Don't make any investment decisions based upon what I'm saying, and nothing I say is true.
That having been said, I'm going to tell you what I think is going on.
Now, hit me with a why if you have a financial advisor.
You've got somebody that you hand your money over to and say, please, please do your best to shield my precious coins, my precious dollars from the endless Viking slash Genghis Khan hordes of inflation.
Hit me with a Y if you have a financial advisor or a stockbroker or something like that.
Okay, so we've got lots of no's, a couple of Y's.
All right, so for those of you who don't have a financial advisor, you don't have somebody who manages your money or anything like that in the past, when you...
And I don't know if this is true for all locales and all of this, so it's just sort of where I'm located.
So what you do is you...
Sit down with your financial advisor when you first meet them and they say basically, okay, what kind of trading strategy do you want?
Do you want aggressive, moderate, or conservative?
Aggressive is, yeah, we're going to get into more risky stuff.
There's more upside. There's more downside.
It's a bit of a wider candle, so to speak.
And if you're moderate, then it's a mix.
And if you're conservative, then you're just going to get a whole bunch of government bonds and some Coca-Cola stocks and stuff that's not going to go to zero, but it's not going to go up particularly much either.
I guess this is kind of a fact check.
I've been listening to a book called The Wizard of Lies about Bernie Madoff.
And in it, this is way back in the day, you weren't actually allowed.
Like if you met with your client, you're a financial advisor, you're a stockbroker or something, and you met with your client and your client said, hey, man, I want conservative stocks.
I want, you know, I'm old.
I just want to protect my retirement.
Don't get me into any penny stocks.
Don't get me into tech stocks, for God's sakes.
Don't invest me in Cum Rocket, the crypto crypto, right?
And so if you as a stockbroker or a financial advisor start piling your client's investments into high-risk stocks when they've specifically and on paper requested conservative or low-risk stocks, you can get into some serious trouble.
I mean, I don't know if you can get sued.
I think you might be able to lose your license.
Like, you can get into some serious trouble.
If you say to your client, what kind of volatility do you want?
They say, I want low volatility.
You get them into stocks with historical or investments of any kind with historical high volatility.
Then you can get into some serious trouble, right?
Because you're supposed to be following.
Yeah, so there's a youth thing, right?
So if you're young, then they recommend aggressive because you've got money to burn, time to lose.
If you're older, you tend to get more conservative.
And so... That's an important thing to remember.
From the investment side, from the big financial institution side, from the financial advisor side, most of the money is in conservative stock windows, right?
Because most of the money is accumulated by people when they get older.
And when you get older, you generally are recommended or you want more conservative stock.
Investments. So the bulk of the money that's in the market is tied up to conservative investments.
Now, if you want to sell it, I could be wrong about this, but I don't think I am.
Certainly with this audience, it's not the case.
So let me ask you this.
If you're in this audience, hit me with a why.
If you have...
Bought Bitcoin because your financial advisor recommended it.
Hit me with a why.
If you bought your Bitcoin because your financial advisor said, hey man, I really think you should get into Bitcoin.
And no, I'm going to guess there's absolutely not going to be any yeses here.
Nope, nope, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
Right.
So, of course, of course, you haven't bought your Bitcoin because you're a financial advisor.
Yeah, you should share the stream for sure.
This is going to be... Outside of, I don't give a damn, but a bad reputation.
This is important stuff, I think, for just understanding what's going on in the market at the moment.
So, of course, you haven't bought Bitcoin because your financial advisor told you to.
Why? Well, for a couple of reasons.
If you're into Bitcoin, you're probably way smarter than your financial advisor, or at least way more knowledgeable about this kind of field.
And also your financial advisor, if they tell you to buy Bitcoin, they're not going to make a penny.
Not going to make a penny.
So I'll tell you a little story that introduced me to the fabulous world of stock markets.
So way back in the day, I had some money from selling a company I co-founded, and I invested it, and the stockbroker ended up churning the account, which is excessive trading, which gets the stockbroker a lot of commissions, but doesn't do any good for the value of my portfolio.
And I ended up Launching legal action against the stockbroker.
And I was told, you know, well, you can either have a cap, you know, if you get it mediated, then you get a judge.
They just rule there's no appeal, but there's a cap on it's pretty low.
But if you want to actually go full court press, then it's going to be like a quarter of a million dollars in cost, and it's going to take about 10 years, because that was my introduction to how valuable, how wonderfully valuable and amazing.
The... The court system was.
So yeah, anyway, this kind of stuff can happen.
There can be this kind of churning stuff that occurs.
And so, with Bitcoin, you don't end up buying Your financial advisor isn't going to make any money from any of this stuff.
Your financial advisor isn't going to make any money if you go and buy Bitcoin.
So it's not that they won't, it's just that they're less likely.
Plus, of course, if you're young and internet savvy and curious and you listen to this show, then you've learned about Bitcoin a lot sooner than your financial advisor did.
So here's the problem, right?
So the problem is that when you get a lot of financial institutions moving into the Bitcoin space, then they want to sell Bitcoin To older people.
Because the people they can sell Bitcoin to based upon Bitcoin's kind of volatile, to put it mildly, is young people.
But young people know more about Bitcoin than these older institutions have been into it longer.
And so you can't really sell a lot of Bitcoin to young people.
And so... Or Bitcoin ETFs or, you know, whatever it is, right?
So do you want an ETF when you can actually have the thing itself?
Do you want some sort of index fund when you can actually have the thing itself?
Well, you probably just want to buy and hold if you're younger.
I mean, if you understand the space.
So that's a big issue, right?
That is a big issue.
So the problem for the big financial institutions is they want to get into the Bitcoin space, but the customers that they have, that they can provide the most value to, are people who have a lot of money, they're kind of old, and they're kind of conservative in what it is that they want to get involved in, right? So if you're a financial institution, you want to get into the Bitcoin space, young people won't buy whatever it is that you have to offer because they know more about it, they've been into it earlier, and they just want to buy direct if they want, right?
So older people who don't really understand the space, they're very conservative and they shy away from the volatility of the Bitcoin space, right?
So that is the reality.
So how do you solve it?
How do you solve it?
How do you get to sell Bitcoin?
And by Bitcoin, I don't mean Bitcoin directly necessarily, but Bitcoin-related products, index funds, ETFs, whatever, Bitcoin-related or crypto-related products, right?
So if the target audience that you have is boomer people and they're very conservative, they have a lot of money, how do you get them into the Bitcoin space?
Since you are probably barred by either professional or legal or whatever it is, ethics, from getting people with a conservative label on their portfolio into crypto, how do you do it?
Anybody want to give me a guess?
And again, I don't know. I'm just telling you what I would do in this kind of situation.
And I do have some experience in this area.
My very first professional gig, as I mentioned before, was I spent over a year working at a stock trading company, writing code and running the back end.
So I have some experience in how these places work.
Of course, this was a while ago, so it probably changed a lot.
How do you deal with that? How do you get a volatile asset into the portfolios of people who have explicitly told you that they don't want volatile assets?
Say, it's like digital gold.
Tell them it's digital gold.
No, that doesn't matter.
And I'm sorry about this. Like, I mean, I know you guys are joking, but that doesn't matter because it doesn't matter what you tell them.
If there's a certain amount of volatility, and there's ways of measuring this volatility from a historical standpoint, so there's ways of measuring this volatility.
How do you get a volatile asset?
Into the hands of people who will only invest in conservative assets.
Right? Make them money on it.
No, no, because once you start allocating enough Bitcoin-related assets into people's portfolio for them to make money, you have violated their conservative requirements, which most of them would have, for their portfolio.
Only invest in gold and silver, nothing else.
Or you're an idiot. Well, all right.
They talk their clients into a riskier investment strategy.
Yes, you certainly could, but you can't do that now, right?
You certainly could, and some people might take that, but you can't do it now because Bitcoin dropped like half of its value over the last month or two, right?
So you can't, right? You have to socialize the volatility?
Yeah, well, so socializing the volatility is something like the government will pay up to $100,000 of financial insurance should a bank go bankrupt.
So, yeah, that's socializing it.
Reduce the volatility? Yeah, you're getting there.
You're getting there for sure. So you can do all these longs and shorts and try and balance things out, but the problem is that Bitcoin is just a volatile asset at the moment.
And remember, volatility is upside as well as downside.
If there wasn't a volatility and upside, there wouldn't be an asset at all because nobody would invest in it because it'd be only downside.
It would go to zero, right? So, yeah, reduce the volatility, right?
Show a comparison to how volatile the dollar is.
Well, that doesn't change the...
Legal or best practices standards of what volatility is.
So, let's see here.
Give insurance on it, like fractional leverage?
That would be shorting if you think it's going down and stuff like that, but I don't think you can really give insurance on this kind of stuff.
Talk to their greed and tell them how high it could go.
Well, again, what you're going to do is you're trying to shift them from conservative to aggressive in their portfolio.
And again, some people you can do that with, but not many.
Certainly not big enough, right?
Have big institutions keep buying to stabilize the price.
Well, here's the problem though.
When you have institutions that keep buying it, then it won't stabilize the price because people will then see big institutions are buying it and then they will buy it in order to sell it to the big institutions and you're still going to end up with all of this stuff, right?
So, you sell Bitcoin to established non-volatile companies.
Well, except that non-volatile companies They don't want, like once they start owning Bitcoin, then they may be moved from a conservative stock to a medium stock or even to a volatile stock, right?
If they, let's say that, silly example, let's say company, giant company XYZ, now 25% of its assets are in Bitcoin.
Is it now a stable stock?
It's not, right? So they can't mess with you.
Really kind of in this box, you're in this confined area, right?
Show them the constant gains and instability is short-term rather than mid-long-term.
Well, sure, yeah, I mean, everybody understands that in the investment space, for sure, right?
I can't think of anything you could tell me that would make me risk my money.
Right, and that's the big issue, right?
Okay, so I'll tell you what I think they're doing.
Again, no proof.
I'll just tell you what I think they're doing.
I'll take a couple of questions. It's not going to be a very long stream.
I've got another interview soon.
But anyway, so here's what I think they're doing.
And the fascinating thing about the blockchain is you can see.
You can see what's going on around the world.
This is completely unprecedented, right?
You can see, like, you can't tell if somebody's got a million dollars worth of Coca-Cola stock.
You have no idea whether they're about to sell it or not.
Right? I mean, you may have some sense, you know, but you don't even know that they've got it necessarily as an individual.
And you certainly don't know what their future goal is with regards to the stock.
I mean, you could say, well, even if you knew their age or whatever, but with the blockchain, if somebody takes a thousand bitcoins off an exchange, then you know that they're not about to sell it.
You probably don't know who it is, but you know for sure, or at least you're pretty sure, that they're not about to sell it.
And so you can tell, if people are interested in selling their coins, whether or not those coins are being moved onto an exchange or off an exchange.
Now again, it's not perfect, it's not absolute, but that is something that is really, really important.
This is from Anthony Pompliano, the guy who just came up with Tweak the Ancients' Bitcoin pizza.
So he says, the on-chain metrics overwhelmingly show that new Bitcoin holders are selling to the people who've been around for years.
Weak new hands are selling to strong, long-term hands.
So you can see this occurring.
This was as of yesterday.
So, you know, the diamond hands, the paper hands, and so on, right?
So... I was talking to a friend of mine the other day who was saying, oh, you know, I might take a job, you know, just to learn something, just to get trained on something.
It's like, eh, you know, that's not necessarily that great because then you're not really invested in long-term health of the company, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, right?
So what I would say is that if I were a financial institution, I would want to reduce the volatility Of Bitcoin so that I could begin to market Bitcoin to my more conservative clients, which is where all the money and profit is, right?
So how do I do that? What I do is, you know, you shake the tree to find where the dead wood is.
And what I would do is I would say, okay, I'm going to start messing around with the price.
I'm going to drive it down. I'm going to do this, that, and the other.
And what I'm going to do is I'm going to chase away or scare away the paper hands in Bitcoin.
So that once Bitcoin has shifted from new coiners to old coiners, And again, I know it's absolute general trend, right?
Once Bitcoin has shifted from a new coin environment to an old coin environment, in other words, people who truly get that it's the life raft off the Titanic of fiat currency, people who truly get that it's the peaceful, voluntary weapon against the time predation of central banking, which is constantly stealing your voluntary weapon against the time predation of central banking, which is constantly stealing your
Once you are shifting it from the people who are in it, the R-selected people who are in the space to pump and dump, to make a quick buck, to get in, to get out, once you've shifted coins from those people to people who genuinely understand the long-term massive value proposition.
You know, I was reading a guy who said that by 2031, one Bitcoin will be $12.5 million.
I mean, I genuinely believe there will come a time where people will say, wait, you're a whole coiner?
Oh, my God. Wait, you own three acres of Manhattan real estate?
Oh, my God. So, that's really important.
The more you can shift...
Bitcoins, from paper hands to diamond hands, from the R-selected to the K-selected, from the short-term, easily-goosed profit-seekers to the long-term value proposition reorient the economy people, from the New York Stock Exchange to Austria in terms of economics, the more you can do that and the quicker you can do that, the more you can shake out the short...
Termers, the new coiners, and the more you can move the coins to long-term holders, then the more stable it's going to become.
Because the people who are hodling, they're just in it for the long haul.
They're looking for five years, ten years, could be this is what I'm going to leave my kids, could be any number of things, but this is what they're looking at.
And the fewer people who are going to sell, in other words, the more hodlers you have, the fewer people who are going to sell, the more Smooth and even the upward trajectory of the price will be.
So volatility, I mean, obviously, if the price is going up in a purely straight line, the question is, is it volatile?
If it's going up at a 45 degree angle, you know, just going up, you know, X plus Y, X plus 1, Y plus 1 on the graph, if it's just going up like that, is it volatile?
Well, no, it's a smooth rise. And then you can say, well, you know, the price is going up, but it's not volatile because it's not going up and bouncing all around.
So what I would want to do if I were these big institutions is I'd want to just shake the tree and get all of the fragile branches, just get all of the nervous nullies out of the marketplace so that I could have a smooth increase in the price going forward.
And that way, I can then start to wedge my Bitcoin products into the conservative portfolio requirements of the boomers with all the cash, if that makes sense.
Any sense. So what does this mean in terms of what's going forward?
Well, I don't know and nobody knows.
And anybody who tells you they do know, who doesn't just put out what's called a wag, a wild ass guess, well, they're just blowing smoke up your ass.
Nobody knows. And if they did know through some magical means, they'd never tell you, right?
So I would say that what's going on is there is a...
Oh, who were you reading? One Bitcoin equals 12 million.
12.5 million.
Let me just get that.
This is the guy who said it was going to, what, well north of 300k by the end of the, by October or November of this year or something like that.
Let me just see here. I will get the reference here and I will put it in the chat.
Oh, it's not that.
Bitcoin news. Bitcoin. Okay, hang on.
It's not Megan Fox revealing an ultra-revealing cutout gown.
What is the deal with Machine Gun Kelly?
Did that guy ever do anything but other than not eat and get tattoos?
Let me just see here. Yes, so this is from Kitco.com.
Robert Breedlove.
Who's definitely not shy on his gel usage.
Ah, just jealousy. Bitcoin price to hit $307K by October, then $12.5 million by 2031.
This is from Robert Breedlove.
Now again, he's estimating it's a wild-ass guess and all of that.
So what will happen...
I believe there is going to be, at the moment, shaking out the people who are too nervous to stick with the long-term plan.
It's moving to people who get the long-term proposition.
And from that stable base, you can begin to build a value proposition that is more stable.
Because if you've got $12.5 million in your head, as Robert Breedlove obviously does, then...
People aren't going to be tempted to, if, you know, let's say they got in and they buy now, right?
What's the price now? 45 and change?
Something like, I'm just talking Canadian, right?
Because it's going par to US, I suppose, over time.
So it's 45, 592 for a Bitcoin.
This is the 24, 1.22pm, 24th of April, of May, sorry, 2021.
So let's say somebody buys in at this and it goes to 50.
Okay, well, they've made, you know, 8, 9% or whatever.
So they're going to sell.
And that's creating all this instability.
But let's say the people, like, to take a silly example, let's say the people who are happy with making 10% on Bitcoin are selling to people like this Robert Breedlove character, right?
Who thinks it's going to go to $307,000 by October.
So if the 10%-er is selling to the $307,000 guy or the $12.5 million guy, then...
Is Robert Breedlove going to sell his Bitcoins when they hit 55k, if he thinks it's 307k by the time that October comes?
Well, no, of course not, right? So if they're moving from Nervous Nelly paper hands to people like Robert Breedlove, then you can begin, like you then have a stable base in which you can build this value proposition for your clients.
So, yeah, they're goosing the price, I believe, and they're just shaking the tree, and they know how to do this stuff, right?
They've been doing this stuff for 400 years.
There's a lot of value that has been generated and a lot of information that is coming down about this kind of stuff.
And remember, the vast majority of trades are computerized, and they can program the computers to pursue the optimum algorithms to shake out the nervous short-term investors so that they can settle Bitcoin's ownership into long-term diamond hands, the Robert Breedlove type's The Anthony Popliano types, the Nick Carter types, and so on.
And those people are going to hang in there.
And then you can start to really build value.
Because if you start to build value and pump Bitcoin, and let's say half the Bitcoin investors are happy to make 10% or 20%, then what happens is the price is going to go up, and then it's going to collapse.
And the price is going to go up, and then it's going to collapse.
But if you get... Bitcoin is, if you get long-term holders to own the Bitcoin, then the price will go up and they won't sell all the time.
They'll just be holding on for longer-term value proposition.
So, you don't bother building the house until you have a firm foundation.
And at 80k, there were, we know this, we know this for a fact, right?
When Bitcoin was 80k, There were a lot of people who were really, really happy to sell all the way down to 38,000, 39,000 Canadian, right?
So more than 50% of the value vanished, right?
Because there were a lot of people who were just, you know, I want to take my gains, I want to get out, I've made enough money, and, you know, no harm, no foul.
I don't think it's understanding the total value proposition of Bitcoin, but that is...
Where people were. And so this shakeout process, you know, if everybody at 80k was a Robert Breedlove, they're not selling and the price can stabilize and continue to go up.
But if you have 50% of the value being held by Paper hands that are going to sell at a moment's notice or panic and freak out and sell.
And, you know, some of the messages I get and some of the messages I see, like people are genuinely panicking about this.
Now, you guys have been watching me over the last, I don't know, however long you've been watching me.
Do I seem troubled? Do I seem bothered that, you know, Bitcoin has lost 50% of its value?
Don't care. It is what it is, right?
And we do want the Bitcoins to move to diamond hands.
We do want them to move to the hodlers.
And right now, everybody who said, you know, when we've got 80K, people will hang in there, but how committed are they to the fundamental value proposition of Bitcoin?
Well, as it turns out, they weren't very committed to it at all, which again is fine, but you've got to get rid of those people, so to speak, from the marketplace if you're going to end up building a conservative asset, if you're going to end up building something that has Only really a solid upside.
And so what you want to build the real value of Bitcoin is you want a significant amount of Bitcoins.
I have no idea what that number is, but somewhere probably north of 40%, right?
So you want a significant number of people In it for the long haul.
You want to have a significant number of people who've got 300,000, a million, 5 million, 12.5.
You want people who have got that number in their head.
Because then they're not going to sell if it goes from 50 to 60.
Because they're like, hey, that's great.
That's just one step closer to the 307,000 that Breedlove predicted by October or whatever.
So you want people in that space because the way that Bitcoin goes up, obviously you know this from a supply and demand standpoint, is that people have to have a very high number, a much higher number than what it can achieve in the short run in order to not sell.
You get into some asset and let's say it goes back to 80.
So people buy at 45, it goes to 80.
They've made like A lot of money, right?
They've close to doubled their money.
And if they're like, wow, doubling my money is fantastic.
That's all I need to do. I'm out.
Okay, then you're going to keep getting that volatility and you won't get access to the wallets of the boomers who want conservative investments.
But if more and more people get into the space who are looking at, you know, 100,000 in the short run and then further down the road, 300,000 or a million or 5 million or whatever, they're not going to sell when it goes to 80 because they're not comparing 80 to 40.
They're comparing 80 to 300 or 80 to a million.
So they're not going to sell.
So what you want is people holding onto the Bitcoins because they believe that it's going to go to the moon.
And then you want people getting in on that and they'll have to bid like crazy to get.
And that's what drives the price up, right?
That's what drives the price up.
So that, I think, is what's going on.
And this is why I said earlier, you know, like I said this in a show recently, if you're a pitcher, then your arm goes back, like the ball goes backwards before it goes forwards, right?
And it has to go back considerably in order for you to get the momentum to throw it.
You know, when you're playing tennis, you raise your racket, and your racket goes back, and then you crack the ball into the diagonal square, right?
So, this recoil before you go, then, you know, the bow goes back, the arrow goes back before it goes forward, and the further back it goes, the further forward it goes, so...
I think that's what's going on.
And it's perfectly natural.
And you do want...
You're going to have a constant price ceiling on Bitcoin if you've got short-term R-selected Paper hands holding the asset.
And again, I'm not complaining about that.
It's not like they're bad people or anything.
I think they're wrong. But that's just, you know, it's not a violation of the non-aggression principle to buy, make 10% or 20% or 50% and then sell your Bitcoins.
Totally fine. Totally fine.
But I think that's what's going on.
And that's why, you know, what's it?
Colin Powell said, oh, I'm sleeping like a baby, which means I wake up every three hours screaming.
It's like, no, I'm getting great night's sleep.
This doesn't trouble me at all.
Like, honestly, it does not trouble me.
At all, this is perfectly natural in the growth of an asset, and I hope that makes sense.
Did I end up posting this thing? Dear, oh dear.
Let's see here. Oh yeah, go to Jared Woodard, J-A-R-R-O-D-W-O-O-D-A-R-D, jaredwoodard.com, and you can help out with the Tezo staking for me, which would be great.
Oh, am I getting Windows sounds?
Yeah, sorry about that. I'll fix this in post.
Let's see here. Let me see if I missed any questions.
A Breedlove interview with Michael Saylor is epic.
Yeah, see, I'm always around...
What is it? Steve Saylor. Let's see here.
I'm not sure why I'd be getting...
Oh, am I getting... Sorry, all of these binks are coming through.
I'll fix that in post. Sorry, I've got dual channel recording here, so...
Let's see here. Steph, if Bitcoin goes to 12.5 million, will that 12.5 million only buy a hamburger and fries?
Well, yeah, I guess that's kind of true, right?
I guess that's kind of true.
I want it to drop to 3,000 again so I can get a whole coin.
Well, I wouldn't hold my breath for that.
So, yeah, I mean, if you understand the bow and arrow analogy and you say, my God, the arrow's going the wrong way, I'm out of here, right?
Well... Let's see here.
I would sell at 12.5 million.
Oh, that's funny. How many push-ups can you do?
I've not done push-ups for a while.
I do bench presses.
All right. Yeah, you know what?
I think it's coming from... I'm just going to see.
Sorry, I'm going to have to turn off. I had to install the program here, which I think has given binks and burps like nobody's business, right?
So let me just turn that off. Settings.
Notifications. Show notifications.
No. Play sound.
Sorry about that. All done.
All done. Location on the screen.
Don't care. Notification count.
That's fine. All right.
Let me just turn off the thing here.
I'll turn the sound back on just in case anybody has any questions.
And you know what? I'll just throw my earpiece in here and I'll give you guys the link.
To the chat.
Yeah, I don't like this thing in my ear.
The whole feels like some alien is trying to lie eggs in my brain, which I guess is the mainstream media.
Boy, you see all these stealth edits now?
It's a strange thing that's happened, right?
So I was talking about the Wuhan lab being the origin of the...
COVID SARS-CoV-2, like last year, like March, April, or whatever.
And it's nice to see the mainstream media.
Even Dr. Fauci is saying, I'm not convinced it came from nature.
I don't know what's changed. I can understand why Bill Gates is now getting all of these terrible things, because I guess his wife has hired a PR agent and all that, and she's trying to destroy his reputation so that she can get more money, maybe.
I'm guessing. I have no idea.
But, yeah, I don't know why it's all changing with the Wuhan lab at the moment, so...
Have you ever considered doing meth so you can become famous like Jordan Peterson?
Oh man, isn't that wretched?
If we see you in public, is it okay to say hi?
I saw you in Krakow, but stayed away because you were with family.
Absolutely. I love to see people.
And every time I went out, I'd usually meet someone who was a big fan of the show and all of that.
And it's a great pleasure.
I simply ask that you don't take photos of my family and post them.
That's all. Alright, so I'm going to just start the voice chat.
Just say here, starting voice chat.
Starting voice chat for Bitcoin show.
Now you know how fast I type.
and I will put the link in here.
Let me just make sure the settings are what I need.
What you need!
Hey, hey, hey!
All right. Good, good, good.
I am unmuted, and let me just get you the invite link here.
I'll put this over there.
Let's see here.
Melinda Gates is a man.
Yeah, of course, the tipping point with Bitcoin is when products are delineated in Bitcoin rather than anything else.
So if you've got a Bitcoin-related question, I'm certainly happy to hear.
I'm just going to try and ask you to keep it on that.
I love you back, Vincent.
Thank you for everything. I appreciate your attention.
Thank you very much. And, oops, that's the wrong thing.
Share invite link. Copy link.
There we go. Sorry. I thought it automatically did that.
Okay, so you can join me here in the voice chat.
We don't have to have a long show if you guys aren't feeling too chatty, but if you have questions, I can certainly do my best to answer them.
If I can, if I can provide value as far as that goes.
So I'll just wait for a second here, and just don't forget to unmute yourself if you have a question.
This will be the largest wealth transfer of our generation.
I hope fellow millennials are seizing their opportunity.
Carpe the diem, right?
Seize the fish. All right, just going to...
Have you looked into the Taproot upgrade?
I've read Taproot all over the place, to be honest.
I have not looked into it, but it does look interesting.
I'm still trying to wrap my head around the Lightning Network, but I will look into that for sure.
I will look into that for sure.
Okay, let's see here. I'll put in my announcements.
Voice chat for Bitcoin show.
You know, I'd be immortal if I could take back all the time I've spent in my life mistyping things.
Pretty wild. What is your response to people who say Bitcoin is the netscape of crypto?
So, I mean, the analogy doesn't even remotely hold.
So, gosh, Netscape was a browser, right, that was sold for $30, and then what happened was browsers became built into operating systems, so nobody paid for it.
So there's no analogy.
You're trying to sell a product and then it can be built into an operating system.
You know, can you imagine that Windows comes with five Bitcoins?
That's not going to happen. There's no way Windows is going to come with five Bitcoins.
So the idea that there's any analogy between a software program that can be built into an operating system, you know, that was QDOS. That was a way of navigating Bitcoin.
Your file system back in the DOS days, which wasn't a Microsoft product.
And then they just, you know, built some of its features as usual into Microsoft and QDOS or the Explorer files.
I mean, you can buy alternate Explorers for your file system than Windows Explorer, but no, it's not even close.
How much of my $11,000 should I put into Bitcoin?
Nobody should answer that question for you except you.
Nobody should answer that question except you.
Here's the thing. This is psychology to investing, not investment advice.
I'm just telling you about the psychology of investing.
So the psychology of investing is investing.
The only way that I think that you can successfully invest is if you never let investment be a tool for self-abuse.
Never, ever, ever let your investment choices be a tool for self-abuse.
Because you know what can happen, right?
You buy, and I've heard this from a bunch of people, you know, oh, the best way to drive the price of crypto down is for me to buy it, and then the price will just crash.
I think even Scott Adams said this.
It's a terrible thing to say about yourself.
You make an investment decision with the best knowledge that you have, and you're not guessing some kind of objective fact when it comes to investing, because value is not objective.
And particularly with something like Bitcoin.
You are not trying to guess an objective fact.
You're basically trying to guess the subjective, often emotional decisions of millions of people around the world, which you simply cannot do.
You simply cannot do it.
It is impossible to beat the market in any regular way.
One of the things that started happening, one of the reasons Bernie Madoff became so wealthy from his crimes is because...
Inflation, which was like 2% when he started in the early 60s, then went to 10.5% in the 70s, so people panicked and freaked out and desperately needed some place where they could shield their money from inflation, and Bernie Madoff seemed to be that place, right?
So Bernie Madoff, while he committed his crimes and he was a terrible guy all around, he was merely a shadow cast by central bank companies.
You want to pursue a war in Vietnam, and you want a giant welfare state at home.
You don't want to raise taxes for pushback against either of those welfare welfare programs for the rich and the poor.
And so you just print a whole bunch of money, you borrow a whole bunch of money, and you drive inflation, and then you get stagflation, which is economic stagnation plus inflation, which, according to Keynesianism, was never supposed to happen.
Anyway, I won't get into all of that stuff.
Everybody's just fleeing to Bernie Madoff because of inflation, and he provided the most stable and larger returns because of the Ponzi scheme and all of that.
But it's okay because the SEC invested Bernie Madoff, and then as far as I understand it, what happened was after they finished clearing him, all the SEC investigators sent their resumes to Bernie Madoff saying, hey, I'd love to get a job with you.
Maybe not all of them, but a bunch of them.
So, yeah, it's...
So if you say to yourself, I have a cursed hand when it comes to investment, you're just using...
It's just self-abuse.
It's just nobody knows what the price is going to be.
Anybody who tells you they do is a lie.
You can put out your guesses. You can put out your estimates.
You can put out... But nobody knows for sure, obviously.
Because you are not...
It's not physics, right?
It's not physics. It is people's subjective...
Evaluation of reality.
And you're trying to guess people's actions based upon a subjective, often emotional interpretation of reality, often driven by, you know, like, oh, China's banning Bitcoin.
China's been banning Bitcoin since 2013.
Like, on a regular basis, China bans Bitcoin.
Why? Because China wants to, I believe, the Chinese leadership wants to move out of Their dollar reserves, right?
They get the value of their U.S. dollar bonds is going to go down, so they want to get into Bitcoin, so they're going to say they're going to ban it, so it drives the price down, they can buy the tip, right?
All this kind of stuff, right?
All this kind of stuff.
So don't use...
Don't use investment variables as a way of punishing yourself.
Like, oh, I sold, and then it went up.
Oh, I bought, and then it went down.
It's like, you've got to make a decision somewhere, and you will absolutely never make the perfect decision.
You will never, ever buy right at the bottom, and you will never, ever sell right at the top.
I guarantee you that will never, ever, ever happen.
You say, oh, well, it's happened to one person throughout.
No, it hasn't. Certainly not in Bitcoin, because then the price is going to go higher and the price may go lower.
So you will never buy at the bottom and you will never sell at the top.
You just make some decision along the way about what you do.
And if you believe in the long-term value proposition, then you buy and hold.
Bitcoin is not the best coin from a technical view.
There are much better cryptos online.
Bitcoin is just the highest market cap.
Yeah, I don't know.
I just find this stuff kind of annoying.
It doesn't mean that you're being annoying.
This could be my subjective experience.
But the best coin from a technical view?
Who cares about a technical view?
So it's very easy.
To demonstrate a database product if you're the only user.
I used to do these demos, right?
I mean, I built a whole database product for helping companies, big Fortune 500 companies and governmental agencies reduce their pollution.
Massive database, you know, hundreds or sometimes thousands of users across the entire world back when the internet was pretty damn slow or data pipes were pretty damn slow.
So what would happen is I would do the demo, right?
And I'd be flying through the database and showing all the queries and how it was going to help you reduce emissions and how it could file your regulatory compliance and just how much money it could save you.
And it was fantastic. And it was a beautiful product when only one person was using it.
You get 500 people using it all across the world back in 1994.
You're going to have some performance issues.
People who are like, well, my coin is much faster.
It's like, well, yeah, because nobody's using it.
I get that. You know, it's pretty funny, you know.
It's pretty funny. My truck goes faster when I don't have a boat behind it.
It's like, yeah, I get that.
Your truck is going to accelerate faster without a big-ass boat behind it.
So what? All you're doing is saying that the laws of physics apply.
So people are like, oh, you know, this is a better coin.
It's got more features.
It's this, that, and the other. It's like, okay, has it been test-cased, scenarioed for use across the entire world for five or ten years straight?
Has it gone through the kind of growth that Bitcoin has had and retained its scalability?
I mean, of course it hasn't, right?
So it's just nonsense.
It's just nonsense that people say, right?
Windows is not the best OS from a technical point of view, but it's vastly popular and successful.
Well, here's the thing, right?
So with Windows, everybody, like other people can say, well, Linux is superior from a technical standpoint, this, that, the other.
But here's the thing. One of the reasons why Windows is, you know, kind of bloated, can be a little bit sluggish, is because it's such a popular operating system that it's got to handle every peripheral known demand, and you simply cannot test Windows.
Your computer is with every peripheral known to man.
Plus, it's attacked by everyone and their dogs to get hold of data because it's so popular, which is why if you're going to make a virus or ransomware, you're going to target Windows machines because they tend to be the ones that are most in use.
So the fact that it is so successful is one of the reasons why it has to have all of these safeguards in, all of these patches.
It's got to deal with all of this hardware and so on, right?
You say, well, the Mac is superior, but the Mac is a closed environment for the most part.
And it's not just peripherals, you know, the hardware.
Windows has got to work with everything and anything.
Because it's so successful, it has to have all of the language packs.
I mean, it's targeted all the time because it's so successful.
So, you know, saying, well, my operating system is smaller and leaner and meaner and therefore it's superior to Windows.
It's like, well, if you had the footprint of Windows, you wouldn't be small and lean and mean because you'd have to deal with every peripheral.
You'd be attacked all the time and you'd have to build all the protections in.
I don't know. Because then what you're saying is that the company with the most money is producing a bad operating system.
It's like, yeah, it's possible, but not particularly.
The China FUD manipulation happens every cycle.
Yeah, there's these FUD dice, you know, like you just roll the dice and you can see what FUD is being put out there.
It's pretty interesting that...
It's pretty interesting that...
You know what?
I'll bring that up another time.
Our Lord and Savior, Linus Torvalds.
Yeah, I've run Linux in the past.
It's cool. It's very nice.
It's very nice. All right.
I don't think we have anyone with any questions.
Let me just double-check here. I don't think it's a raise.
I think people just talk in my ear, right?
Anybody? Last call.
Last call for questions. Yeah, here's the thing.
This is a general philosophy thing.
When you say things like, well, there are better coins than Bitcoin, you do have the problem, of course, of saying, well, why is Bitcoin the biggest market cap?
Why is it the apex predator, so to speak, of the entire space?
Well, you have to answer that question.
Now, you can then just say, well, people are stupid or, you know, they just lack marketing and so on.
So don't give yourself easy outs for challenges to your belief system.
A belief system is robust when you take on all comers and you entertain the very best arguments against it.
So if you say, Windows is crap, Bitcoin is crap, and all that kind of stuff, then you do have the problem of, okay, why is Windows so widespread?
And you do have the problem of...
Why Bitcoin is so successful.
And if you then just say, well, Marketing and people are dumb, right?
Well, marketing doesn't sell stuff that much.
I mean, two examples come from history.
In the 1950s, there was a car called the Edsel, which had a huge marketing campaign, but turned out to have endless amounts of problems, and it crashed and died.
The big thing, was it in the 90s?
There was New Coke, and they spent ungodly amounts of money promoting New Coke, and nobody really liked the taste.
It was too sweet, and the whole thing just crashed.
All marketing can do is get you to try a product once or get interested in the product once.
Right? If there's some restaurant that wallpapers you with marketing and two-for-one meals and so on, they can get you in the restaurant, they can get you to eat a meal, but if you don't like the restaurant and you don't like the meal, you ain't going back no matter what the marketing says.
The marketing is not a magic mind-control spell.
Okay, government school is a different matter.
That's not marketing. That's coercive propaganda.
But marketing is not a magic spell that controls people.
And... Marketing can't keep a crappy product alive for 11 years, like it just can't.
So, let's see here.
Stefan, hello. Yes, how you doing, man?
Hey, I'm good, yourself? I am well, what's up?
I wanted to ask about the mainstreaming of Bitcoin and just the possibilities that surround the social and economic changes That will come about due to Bitcoin becoming more mainstream.
I think as boomers begin to die off, as the younger generation who is a lot more tech savvy begins to take over the economy and society, a mainstreaming of Bitcoin will be inevitable.
I think we will see a time where you say Bitcoin and people just know what it is, just because that's how it's going to be.
But I was going to ask, the governments and the banks that Bitcoin seeks to abolish, they're not just going to You know, retreat.
They're going to put up a fight to maintain their power and influence.
So is the mainstreaming of Bitcoin a double-edged sword in the sense that we get to abolish banks and governments, but maybe that they're going to lash out before dying?
I don't know that Bitcoin is going to abolish banks and governments.
So I think the way that it's going to work is It's going to work in that there's going to be aristocracy and there's going to be serfs.
Now this isn't the way that I want it to work.
But this is the way I think it's going to work.
So the closest analogy would be, in terms of a limited resource essential for economic activity that's held by a small number of people, you would go back to the landed aristocracy.
Starting in the, I mean, in England, you would start after the Battle of Hastings in terms of the redistribution, 1066.
This is, of course, my family history.
Molyneux is a French name. We came over with, was it William the Conqueror in 1066?
66 in the Battle of Hastings and we ended up with land holdings in Ireland and people who owned land owned the most foundationally productive resource because land was limited and of course you could grow things on land and you needed land to build a house and all that and so you had the aristocracy who had control of the land and then you had everybody else and people who didn't have direct access to the land would end up having to rent the land or they would end up being serfs where you had some Freedom with the land,
you weren't a total slave, but you could be bought and sold with the land.
And then what happened, of course, was that the land became subdivided, and it became increasingly...
impossible to effectively farm because you'd get, you know, 40 acres and you'd have a bunch of kids and you'd slice and dice it and then they'd sell off a little bit to someone else or rent it out and then it just became ridiculously impossible to track and to plow
and then you had a consolidation mechanism where the aristocrats or other landowners began to consolidate the land to throw off the serfs who then ended up as an urban population which was the foundation of the Industrial Revolution, right?
People were off the land and of course one of the reasons why this happened is the land became so much more productive because of better farming methods starting in the Middle Ages where the value of or the productivity of land went from like 10, went from 1 to 10, like it went 10 times, 15 times, sometimes 20 times.
I mean, I'm talking about the introduction of winter crops like turnips and crop rotation and increased manure and fertilizer use and a better way of dealing with pests and so on.
So there was a lot of incredible agricultural innovations.
And everyone knows the Industrial Revolution, but people forget, and I wrote a whole novel on this, right?
People forget about the agricultural revolution that happened before.
You can't have an Industrial Revolution without an Agricultural Revolution.
And so you ended up with a bi-class society, which was those who held land and those who didn't hold land.
And then what happened was those who held land ended up giving way to those who held capital, right?
Because once you have excess population and excess food, you can get an urban proletariat, you can get capitalist building factories, and then the power shifts from land to capital.
And then because the power has shifted from land to capital, governments have to shrink because capital is mobile.
If you've got a bunch of gold, you can put it in a boat and you can sail from one place to another to become more friendly, whatever is going to be more friendly to your tax situation, your inheritance situation.
So the more mobile the value is, the more governments have to accommodate it.
And you can begin to see this. Portugal is not taxing crypto gains.
You've got Texas and Wyoming and other places becoming more friendly to crypto mining.
You've got cities in Florida who are thinking of taking...
Bitcoin as payment for taxes and so on.
And so there's a race to accommodate the most mobile and valuable assets.
So that for sure is going to be underway.
So certainly Bitcoin will chip away because Bitcoin is going to have so much value that wherever Bitcoiners go, It's going to be incredibly valuable for the local economy.
And so there will be a race to accommodate Bitcoin.
But the problem is, of course, that the entire political structure at the moment and pretty much always throughout history is based upon giving free stuff to people in return for votes.
That's really what it's based upon.
Now, you can't do that with Bitcoin.
Because the government can't print Bitcoin.
It can't borrow Bitcoin without assets.
It can't just create Bitcoin.
And if it, you know, if it doesn't have Bitcoin, or even though let's say it does have Bitcoin and it says, oh, you know, lend us money and we will give you...
You know, 10% more Bitcoins in five years.
Well, how are they going to get those Bitcoins?
They're going to become more valuable in five years, so nobody's going to do that.
So things like bonds and borrowing and money printing, all impossible under a Bitcoin scenario.
But, of course, you have so many people who have adapted to the food source of fear.
It's really important to understand from a biological standpoint.
You have entire classes of people, both wealthy and poor, not so much middle class.
They have adapted. To the incredibly dense and nutrient-rich food source called fiat currency.
And you think of single mothers this way.
You think of the warfare state and the welfare state as a whole.
And they have adapted to the food source of fiat currency.
And if you yank away that food source and they have to try and adapt their situation from fiat to crypto, that's going to be a hell of a change.
One of the things that's happened to, let's just say, single moms, is it's not just their children that have been subsidized, it is their Bad behavior that has been subsidized.
Like, personality gets warped by fiat currency.
Because if you are a, you know, you're a woman and you need a guy to stick around to pay for resources while you raise kids, you've got to be nice to that guy.
You've got to be productive. You've got to, it's got to be better for him that you're in his life.
Whereas if you can just run to the government, you can be a total bitch.
You can sleep around. You can be, you can scream at him.
You can yell at him. You can throw, throw, because it doesn't matter.
Because if you drive him off, it doesn't matter.
Your kids are still going to get fed because you can just run to the government.
So unfortunately, like really terrible personality structures have been subsidized and inflamed through fiat, which is one of the reasons why the growth of fiat is also lockstep with the rise of mental illness or massive dysfunctions in personality.
Because you don't have to be, you know, you have to be nice to your boss.
If you need the job.
You don't have to be nice to your boss if you just won the lottery.
You can take this job and shove it.
It's an old countryside. I ain't working here no more.
And so can people adapt their personality structures to the point where they actually have to provide value to someone?
Can single moms go from being sometimes it could be difficult and negative and all of that?
Can they then switch over to being loving and productive and helpful and running a good household and making meals or whatever it is that they would do that would provide enough value for a man that he's willing to take on another man's kids?
So maybe they can woo back the guy that they had the kids with by being just such a nicer person and more positive.
Sure, some people will make that transition and it would be so much better for them.
My God! Fiat currency drives people to massive amounts of dysfunction and immorality.
It's just wretched.
You know, if you're in a situation where you don't have to provide value to people, you can just be as horrible as you want.
And you're always going to land on your feet because the government's going to pay for stuff.
So, yeah, negative personality traits, significant dysfunction, mental illness, abuse, these all funded by the nutrient-rich source of fiat currency.
When that goes, it's not going to go away.
So you're going to end up with a two-tier system, just as you had in the Middle Ages.
The people who owned land, which is a fixed commodity, and the people who own Bitcoin, they're going to be the aristocracy.
And then the people who don't own Bitcoin will be on a secondary source of income, which is the vestiges of fiat currency.
And of course, fiat currency will still gain its value because it will tax Bitcoin gains and it will tax Bitcoin inheritance.
And they'll shave off value from Bitcoin in order to continue to bribe people for dysfunctional behavior, as has been the case for fiat currency for over 100 years.
So there is going to be, there will be two parallel systems in the short to medium term.
I mean, the long term. I mean, who knows?
There's way too many variables to guess that far out.
But, I mean, think of the rich people too.
If you run, you know, the arms division of some big aerospace company and your job is, you've just cultivated all of these incredible contacts in the government and you have the ear of your congressman and you've donated to his campaign and you, you know, your value is, or you used to work in government and now you work for these companies but you retain your contacts.
None of that works under Bitcoin.
Like, that all vanishes under Bitcoin.
Yeah, they're going to fight to retain it.
And what they'll do is they will invent threats against people or exaggerate threats against people, as I think they've done with COVID. And they'll say, well, you know, we really need...
You know, this defense system because of these dangerous people and all that.
And so, yeah, they'll still try and keep it going.
But I think that there will be...
Bitcoin is the liberty coin, but it's also a new tax livestock coin for fiat currency.
So it won't want to kill Bitcoin because Bitcoin is what will end up keeping it alive.
But hopefully there will be a diminishment of the resources available through the welfare state so that people can just start to behave better.
Just not to behave better.
You don't have to be... Nice to your customers if you've got the control of a congressman, right?
Because the congressman is just going to give you contracts.
But you do have to be nice to your customers if you are in a Bitcoin environment because nobody can compel the transfer of these Bitcoins.
So, yeah, I mean, that would be my guess as to how it's got a two-tier system, right?
You've got UBI, which is going to be fiat currency that's shaving off value from Bitcoin.
You're going to have Bitcoin, which is going to be the new aristocracy.
There will be lots of battles in that kind of friction space, but I think that's how it's going to play out if that makes any sense.
Yeah, it does make sense.
Well, just to leapfrog on that, how much Bitcoin would you have to have now in order to be a member of this aristocracy?
Well, I would... I would not say that there should be much limit on what you say the value of Bitcoin would be.
That would be my particular advice.
So, I mean, I don't know.
I mean, I think in the future there will be like, oh my God, you know, that guy has a, he's a whole coiner.
That guy has a whole Bitcoin.
Oh my God, right? Because you understand there's way more than 21 million millionaires in the world, but there won't, there will only be 21 million bitcoins.
So even if it's only one millionaire, right?
It's way more than a million dollars of bitcoin, right?
And of course, you need much more in the economy going on than that.
So that's the way I think it would be.
All right. I appreciate that.
Is there anything else that anybody else wanted to ask?
Should we close down? Should we stay open?
What is your pleasure?
Go in once. Go in twice.
All right. All right. Well, I'll close down.
I really, really appreciate everyone's time today.
I hope that this helps and gives you some, not objective perspective, but at least my perspective on how all of this stuff goes.
I really appreciate everyone's time.
Love you guys for dropping by.
It is a real pleasure. As I've always told you and will continue to tell you, ad infinitum.
To be able to chat with you in this kind of way.
So have yourselves a wonderful, wonderful afternoon.
Lots of love from up here. I will see you guys.
Gosh, what is it? Yeah, I'll see you Wednesday night 7 p.m.
and Friday night 7 p.m.
Actually, we're going to start this week Friday night.
It's a little earlier because I've got a European listener.
We're going to start at 5 p.m. But yeah, lots of love from up here.
Take care. Great pleasure to chat.
Thanks for all the great questions and comments.
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