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March 19, 2020 - Freedomain Radio - Stefan Molyneux
01:01:56
Coronavirus Update: Dr Paul Cottrell: "Prepare NOW for 18 Months!"
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*Taple Music* Hi everybody, I'm here with Paul Cottrell.
He is a researcher in chaos theory.
Of course, he has a big interest in my show for that very reason.
He has an interest in modeling financial markets.
He's born in Detroit.
He has extensive professional experience in engineering and design after retiring from automotive engineering.
He pursued interests in corporate finance involving the publishing, retail, and nonprofit industries.
He is a proprietary trader specializing in currency and energy markets.
He's been awarded a PhD specializing in finance from Walden University, also earned an MBA and BS from Wayne State University, engineering certificates from Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and has also been awarded...
Sorry, Dr. Cuttrell is currently at Harvard University as an ALM candidate specializing in biology.
He's completed the pre-medical program at Fordham University.
In other words, his degrees could totally beat up and take the lunch money from my degrees.
I'm very pleased to have you on the show, Paul.
Thank you so much for taking the time.
Thank you very much for having me.
Had me skin crawl just a little bit was your video on the impact of coronavirus on the health systems and the lungs in particular.
I wonder if you could help people understand where you're coming from and hopefully we can push back against this.
It's just the flu bro kind of narrative.
Right, right. So people need to understand the main receptor that this coronavirus is infecting is the ACE2 receptor.
And the ACE2 receptor involves a pathway called the renin-aldosterone pathway.
So this helps control your blood pressure.
So as this virus is breathed into your lungs, There's a high probability of it connecting to this ACE2 receptor and going endocytosis into the cell and starting to replicate.
But what is interesting that just came out just recently is it's not just the ACE2 receptor and it's not just the Wuhan strand.
We have other receptors that this is infecting, such as the GRP78 receptor and the CD147 receptor.
But it seems as though that the spike protein on the coronavirus has more affinity for the ACE2. It actually is supercharged when we have a protease called furin.
We have furin in our cells that helps process proteins.
Sometimes proteins are made and they have to be cleaved or folded in a certain way to be activated.
We have inactive proteins and activated proteins.
So furin at times can migrate to the cell service.
If the furin is next to ACE2 or these other two receptors that I just mentioned, it adds a thousand times more virulence for the spike protein, the spike protein that's on the coronavirus.
This I just released two days ago, all right?
There's a worry here that once you get infected, this virus is...
The working hypothesis that we have is that it's not the flu.
It is a bio-engineered virus.
And this goes all the way back in the research data, all the way as far back as 2010.
You can see how individuals were doing restrictive enzyme manipulation.
In this genome of SARS and bat SARS-like virus, all right?
And they were building up what I call the Wuhan strand.
This goes all the way back to 2010.
They were manipulating it.
The reason why they were manipulating is to try to understand what is going on in the bat host and create therapeutics for it, you know, like Remdesphere or a vaccine, all right?
Well, something happened.
Many different labs in the world were doing this.
Something happened in the research lab at the P4. And they had a supercharged version of this where they took...
Bat SARS-like virus.
And they took SARS and they copy-pasted the virulent parts of this, of their genome, into a substrate and created a new genome that also tweaked it with HIV. The HIV component of the S protein comes from something called the GP120. It's the glycoprotein 120 from HIV,
and there's three inserts, and there is one insert for GAG. GAG is tied into the capsid.
The capsid is the circular structure of HIV. That's the main circle of it, if you want to call it that.
With that in mind, over time, as it leaked out of P4 and it's been spreading around the world, we have about 35 or more sequenced Wuhan strands.
And it has branched off.
There's been one that has branched off called RATG13. We believe that it came from Wuhan and not separate, a separate engineered strand, because it has very similar homology of the genome and that the GAG-HIV part that I was talking about on the Wuhan starts to break down.
So you have these stochastic processes as it moves around in the population where the nucleotides will change.
And if you have enough nucleotides changing, your amino acids will change in the protein.
So you have these stochastic processes that happen during just, you know, normal mutation.
This is the high mutation capacity of the RNA, is that right?
Right, right, right.
So what happens is that this virus is an RNA virus.
And when the RNA virus gets into the cell, to prove your point, it gets into the cell and it starts to create a protease.
A protease that it creates is 3CL. And that 3CL helps to fold the replicase.
That replicase is what starts to make the proteins off of the RNA and the duplicates of the RNA. But viruses mutate a lot primarily because the replicase is not very good.
It's not like our preliminary races where we have checks We're good to go.
In the world of natural selection, that can allow for attenuation, the weakness of a virus, or it can allow sometimes more virulence.
And this is why I'm concerned about the three-receptor issue.
I call it pinballing, where over time, even though we have high virulence with the ACE2, over time it's going to attenuate.
But another wave could come because of natural selection and it gains affinity to, let's say, CD147 or GRP78. So your listeners can see that this can be pinballing back and forth As it's going around the world.
Well, this is something that I've sort of interrupted, but this is something that I've really tried to emphasize in my presentations, knowing as I have studied quite a bit of the medieval history of the Black Death, it came in a series of waves.
People think of a plague as like one big Albuquerque kind of peak and then a trough and then it evens off, or maybe it stays kind of low grade in the population.
But if you look at the 1819 Spanish flu, yes, we're going to call it the Spanish flu because we're sane.
The Spanish flu came in a small wave, a large wave, and then a smaller wave.
And the bubonic plague, the Black Death, came in a series of waves over decades, and some places even longer in Europe.
And this idea that you can just get this peak, tamp it down, social distance, and deal with it, I mean, there's nothing wrong with doing it.
It's a good thing to do, but we don't know how big the second wave is going to be, even absent mutation.
It's just the way these things tend to roll.
Right, exactly. We are looking at the epidemiological dynamics of the Spanish flu as a proxy.
The difference is, we didn't know molecular biology in 1918.
We do now.
And this is a bio...
Okay, so there's a lot that you talked about in the beginning.
I kind of want to break it down a little here because you're squeezing so much information into so few syllables.
So when you say bioengineered, you mean that there's evidence of human tampering, not necessarily that it's any kind of weaponized thing, but they were messing around with the gene sequence in order to try and learn something.
They put some dangerous stuff in there and it got out.
I've heard the AIDS insert.
I've also heard that the AIDS insert has been questioned or some of the papers have been withdrawn, although these papers being withdrawn, you never know if it's political pressure or economic pressure or what.
So the AIDS inserts that you're talking about, help me understand a little bit more about some of the controversy around that.
Okay. All right. Here's what happened.
On January 25th, I looked at the genome in the NIH database that was released from China.
I was only doing it for fun because I took bioinformatics at Harvard and I was just doing it for fun.
So I went in, and then what I saw was the copy-paste of...
You've got to remember that this genome is 30 nucleotides long, 30,000 nucleotides long.
they copied BAT-SARS-like into the replicase.
BAT-SARS-like was good for the replicase part of it.
So it could replicate, but it didn't have a good spike protein.
So it wasn't that virulent.
Okay, spike protein just reminds me of the audience.
The spike protein is the corona that they're talking about.
Okay, you have the virus, it's circular, and it has spikes.
So it's called the S protein or the spike protein.
That is what attaches to the receptors.
Okay?
That has the HIV hemology.
If you need more visuals, just check the thumbnail.
I've been using this thumbnail for a while.
It's called the coronavirus because of this halo and these spiky things.
They remind me of sea mines in World War II with their little spikes coming out.
Exactly. So that's how cells can communicate, is these receptors.
We have receptors that take on hormones or different chemicals and creates a whole downstream effect of processes.
Well, viruses have learned through natural selection a way to connect to some of these receptors.
They're brought into the cell, and then they start using the cell machinery to replicate.
Now, so this spike protein is the key to the receptor.
The receptor is the lock, if you want to look at it that way.
Now, in terms of what happened, so I looked at the genome on January 25th and then on January 27th, and I saw that they took the best of both worlds, the best of the replicase, about 2,000 nucleotides, and pasted it in.
That's not zoonotic.
Yeah, the idea of that, that's sort of the thousand monkeys typing Shakespeare, the idea that this replication of another RNA sequence would suddenly appear in this one, almost perfectly copied, as you say.
You know, the odds of this arriving from natural selection is like sort of a whirlwind going through a junkyard and assembling at 747.
Exactly. And then they took the best for the spike protein from SARS. Put it in, and then they tweaked it with the HIV. It's not HIV. It's not HIV virus because HIV virus is a retrovirus.
It has a different type of genome.
It has different mechanisms.
It uses reverse transcriptase, and it integrates into your genome.
That's why HIV is such a problem to try to fight, to treat.
But this is not...
If you get... COVID-19, you don't have HIV. And a lot of people think that.
But what they did was they understood that each amino acid either has a neutral charge, a positive charge, or a negative charge.
Well, you have those amino acids for the lock or the receptor.
So if you know the charges of the receptor, you can program the spike To lock in correctly.
To have the right charges, the right charge topology to lock good.
And that's what they did with the HIV homology.
They changed the amino acids in such a way that it had the right positive charge to the negative charge on the receptor of the ACE2. And you look at the clinical side, you hear that there is a downregulation of antigen-presenting T cells.
Well, that's your white blood cell count is going down.
So that, you know, does have that hint of AIDS. Well, and then, of course, you have this double whammy that you have an infection, and, well, the white blood cells which are designed to fight the infection, those numbers are going down, and this might be one of the reasons why it's so hard on people's system.
Right, right. So, okay, now around this time, it's early February, where three Indian researchers published a paper on Cold Spring Harbor's website.
Non-peer-reviewed website, but that's how a lot of this cutting-edge research is first.
It's a white paper that's issued for comments.
And it showed how they looked at the Wuhan strand that was released by China.
And I personally went into the NIH database and did double-check the research.
And if you look at the genome that's published for HIV-1, there's different types, but HIV-1, and you look at the protein sequence of GP120 and GAG, And you type in those sequences, those inserts, and look at the actual genome that's for Wuhan, you see it.
And it's it so it's not like they they they did a false paper and you got to remember how researchers...
Sorry to interrupt. There was a lot of pushback because I remember reporting about this when it first came out.
There was a lot of pushback.
If I remember rightly, the paper was withdrawn.
Do you know what the criticisms were of this identification?
They said that the methodology was wrong.
So but the thing is, is if you if you see the sequence And you see it for the spike protein that makes it more virulent.
And there's four.
There's four inserts.
Four separate inserts. It's not like, you know, just a sequence.
It's four targeted in there.
The chances of that being zoonotic is low because it's One sequence, I could say maybe zoonotic.
Two sequences, maybe.
Three, four, then the probability becomes less and less.
And these sequences are not just two amino acids matching.
One is six.
Another is eight.
So the chances to make an amino acid, you need three nucleotides.
You need three nucleotides plus another three nucleotides plus another three nucleotides to make up the six amino acid sequence.
So the chances of it being zoonotic It's very low on top of when you look at the copy-pasting that took place with bat SARS-like and SARS coronavirus.
So this was definitely bioengineered.
And that's just looking at it from bioinformatics.
So you can look at it from three different ways.
You can look at it from the bioinformatics.
You can look at it from the probabilities, pure probability.
It's very low. And then on top of it, it's right by a P4 facility where supposedly it was leaked by the fish market.
So the probability of all this being zoonotic is like.00001 or less.
The bioinformatic perspective, you can see the copy-pasting.
But then you can see the building through the research and how they were studying this in the bat host.
And try to make a virus that goes under the radar of the immune system to be able to understand the biology, to speed up the research.
So I understand why they did it.
Okay, but this is the big question, and of course we may never know the actual answer, of course, Paul, but this is the big question.
If it was engineered, why on earth would somebody want to create such a hellish virus If it doesn't exist in nature, it's not like you're researching it to create some sort of vaccine or some sort of protection against it.
I mean, is this not just, well, I don't even want to say it, but I mean, wouldn't this have significant military applications?
There's a lot of ways to look at this.
We can go down the very dark road, or we can, hopefully, it wasn't the dark road.
I originally had the thought and the hope, and I stress hope, that it was purely scientific and that it was leaked on accident.
But you can have something that is scientific, going in a scientific pipeline, and then bifurcate and then have a dark operation going on.
So they could have been building up this virus in 2010.
And there is some evidence, to your point, in around 2015 where it went dark out.
Oh, so they developed something and the members were like, ooh, that could be of use to us.
Yeah, that's what I think happened.
Yeah, I think that's what happened.
Now, that's going down a dark road, you know.
And if that, you know, why was that released?
Was it released on accident?
Was it released on purpose?
Yeah. Who released it on purpose?
Why? It opens up a lot of questions that may never be answered.
But I understand why it was being developed in 2010 all the way through, you know, up to, you know, lots of labs were working on coronaviruses, you know, to try to come up with a SARS vaccine.
I mean, that's well known.
That's public information.
They were trying to come up with SARS vaccine.
This is one of the research lines of trying to find that.
Because this virus is, I mean, even the code name for it is SARS-CoV-2.
COVID-19 is a disease.
The actual virus is SARS-CoV-2.
So they are even admitting in the scientific community, this is SARS-CoV-2.
Now, you had mentioned earlier, was it 30 or 35 variations on this coronavirus?
Can you help me understand that bit out?
So, yeah, the 30, 35 thing?
So, over time, there is this stochastic mutation that's taking place, right?
So... When that happens and people get infected in different areas, they have been sequencing.
So the last I looked was last week, and there's over 35 Wuhan strands of this.
So there's the California one, there's the Illinois one, there's Hong Kong, there's South Korea.
Okay, so what do you mean by strains?
Variations on a theme, but would the same vaccine work against all of them?
The genome is so similar.
The genome is so similar, you can call them the same, they're from the same family, from the same lineage, and that the therapeutics, high probability that they would work for that family.
Sorry, when you say therapeutics, because, I mean, there's two, there's the actual targeting of the illness.
There's a bunch of Australian researchers who found I think it was a drug that deals with malaria, and I've also heard the AIDS drugs or HIV drugs work.
So there's two therapeutics, right?
One is just get oxygen into the lungs, which is the intubation, which is the oxygen mask and so on.
And then there is the actual targeting of the virus.
And so you're saying even though there are local variations, the same medicines might target or probably would target the same variations of the virus?
Yes. When I say therapeutics, I'm saying like remdesivir, antiviral medications, you know, yeah, I'm not talking about ventilation, but that is a therapeutic also in definition.
But I mean, you know, a pharmacological therapy.
So you have about, so as it spreads around the world, it's going to have minor variations in its genome and they're sequencing those and publishing it.
There is more than 35.
How many? I don't know today, but last week was around 35 of the Wuhan and only one of the RETG-13.
Now, over time, we're going to see much more of the REGT13. Sorry, remind me of the difference between that acronym?
Okay. Okay, so I don't know what the acronym actually stands for.
That's just the code. Yeah, yeah.
That's the code that they have.
So you have the...
This is what I think happened.
You had a bioengineered virus that leaks out of P4. It's Wuhan.
Wuhan then starts to mutate, and we sequence...
And we have 35 different genomes that are so similar, just a few nucleotides or whatever that are different.
Something happened.
And there is a zoonotic mutation that takes place that's beyond just...
It gains function.
It has a different dynamic.
Is it more virulent or less virulent?
I don't know. I don't think there's enough research to say either way.
It could be more virulent.
It could be less virulent. But it's different.
It's different enough to say it's a cousin.
It's not in the family.
It's not siblings.
It's a cousin.
But there's only one of those that were sequenced that I've seen in the NIH database.
Well, there were 35.
So as time goes on, you're going to see more and more of these being sequenced.
It's important for the listeners to realize just because there's 35 of Wuhan doesn't mean there are like radically 35 different viruses that are attacking you.
No, it means that out of this 30,000 nucleotide genome, you may have 50 nucleotides different.
And just because you have a different nucleotide doesn't mean that it goes for a different amino acid.
So you have to have enough mutation that takes place.
So my concern here, Paul, I think everyone's concerns, is if it starts to drift even more, you're going to end up with like the common cold or the flu, wherein there's just enough variation, at least with the flu, right?
I mean, how do they get the flu vaccine every year?
Well, they just kind of guess how it's going to mutate the next year and try and figure out what spectrum to apply there.
Because if it starts to drift even more, and given its replication rate, given the...
Is it going to drift enough that we're going to end up with, well, I guess, further than cousin relationship, possibly even outside of medical help?
Well, here's the thing. Viruses and lineages of viruses can attenuate in the population, usually.
And it becomes less virulent and more common.
Coronaviruses are cold viruses.
Many viruses are cold viruses.
But this will attenuate.
But my concern is that because of the mechanism, it's bioengineered.
This is something that we've never really seen before, to our knowledge.
Maybe they have released other things into the population we don't know about.
But let's assume this is the first bioengineered virus that really leaked out that has this level of lethal, you know, or virulence.
My concern is as one receptor affinity starts to attenuate, Another receptor affinity starts to get stronger.
And this is where I'm worried about that second, third, fourth wave.
I believe that just with Wuhan, I don't know about RATG13, that's really new.
That was only sequenced February 24th.
That it will attenuate And we'll have this big spike, and then we'll have a secondary and a tertiary, and this duration is going to be 18 months.
Using the proxy of the dynamics of the Spanish flu, there was a secondary and a tertiary wave.
But again, that wasn't supercharged.
We have a supercharged situation where it's designed to pinball back and forth.
That's the way it looks like it was designed for.
So as it's attenuating for one set of tissue receptors, it's going to attack other tissue receptors.
And we don't know what the clinical presentations are.
This thing could be 20 months, die out, and then rear its head up again in five years.
Because it learned to just kind of live in the population.
You know, just because no one's sick or seems sick doesn't mean it's not around, right?
It's just, you know, it has a low viral load on the body.
But then is there enough of a mutation that takes place that, bam, it pops up again?
Right, right. And this goes to me, Paul, some way towards explaining two other things.
One, of course, is that there have been some fairly significant evidence of reinfection rates up to 14%.
Which is not good. Now, some people are saying, well, you know, it was an error in testing and so on.
Yeah, maybe, maybe. But if you've got this mutation that's looking for these new receptors, the reinfection rate seems somewhat plausible.
And, well, tell me if this is a correct way to look at it, that it would also go some way towards explaining why The damage appears to be quite significant in some people.
I've seen reports of 20-30% loss of lung capacity, of a brisk walk causing people to sort of run out of breath after they've had the virus.
I've heard other reports of heart ailments that can come out of this.
And these things are not much associated with the flu or the cold, of course.
Is this part of what we're talking about?
Yes, yes, yes.
You see, people need to realize that the ACE2 is not just in the air sac.
It's also in your mitochondria.
We know through clinical presentation that individuals that have diabetes, and this is my big point about America because we're unhealthy, but diabetes, heart disease, liver issues, especially liver cirrhosis,
drinking too much, that sort of thing, or kidney dysfunction, they all have ACE2 receptors because they use it for hormonal communication, for homeostasis.
So this virus is using that and it can shut down the heart.
Or turn down your kidney function.
So it's not just lungs.
But you can get it into your lungs.
And then you get that viral load.
It takes a little bit of time. It starts multiplying.
It exocytosis out of the cell.
And it's all over the body.
And it moves.
If it's not treated, it can move towards like sepsis.
Where you have multiple organ failure.
So if people are already compromised with a low immune system, diabetes, and again, that GRP78, that's glucose receptor protein.
So glucose is involved in this.
But that's a chaperone protein within the cell.
But if we're stressed, if a cell's stressed or tissue's stressed, it will upregulate that and turn into a receptor.
So if you already have a compromised immune system, you'll upregulate GRP78, and that virus can get it.
That virus can use that as a window to get into the cell.
Okay, so it seems to me that the scientific community, if what you're saying is correct about the evidence for it being bioengineered, It seems to me that the scientific community should be front and center with this, talking to people about this being not something that's just evolved, not something that just drifted from bats to people, but given the evidence that it is a bioengineered virus, this should be front and center because, as you say, this is unprecedented.
Why do you think more people are not coming forward to talk about this?
Well, it goes back to the three Indian researchers.
You've got to remember that researchers, they get their grants from the government.
And you're not going to say things that will upset the apple cart for your funding, for your lab.
So that's one component.
People are afraid because of the way the grant system is for research.
Second, it shines a light on how dangerous some of this molecular biology can be and the lack of protocols and the hubris of the scientific community.
If we don't have the correct protocols at level 4 labs, the BSL-4 labs or the P-4 labs, These things can leak out and cause major havoc.
Sorry to interrupt, but even in a first world country, not to say that China's all third world or anything, but even in an advanced country like Canada, we had a bunch of Chinese scientists kicked out of a lab in Winnipeg.
So, you know, I mean, it's all well and good to have protocols, but if you have people who may be compromising those protocols for reasons of outside influence, it's like, well, that's all the great protocols.
It doesn't really matter. It's like putting your big long password up in a post-it note on your monitor.
But there could have been a protocol to prevent the leakage of material coming out of the lab.
And there's the problem.
It's that not only could have been just an accident leak, but there could have been a purposeful leak, an espionage leak, because you can use a bioengineered virus and turn it into a weapon very easily.
So... So protocols are not just the lab protocol, but also how to prevent people from stealing material.
I think that's weak also.
But it shines a light on some of the things that are happening in dark operations in these labs.
And I don't think people really realize.
I mean, maybe they realize it with the nuclear age and the nuclear Los Alamos-type technologies and stuff like this.
But I don't think people really realize all of the things that are happening with these labs and how they're tinkering around with genomes and making chimeras.
I don't think the average person really understands it.
Especially with CRISPR. Yeah, the phrase that's always used is playing God, but that's actually not quite accurate.
It's more like playing Satan. Sorry, you were going to say something about the CRISPR technology?
Right, exactly.
I agree with you, playing Satan.
There's a hubris in the scientific community.
And this is where the chaos theory comes in.
They have a hubris thinking that they can contain it, that they know better, that they have the protocols or the knowledge to understand what's going on and that everyone will be safe.
But then some black swan event happens and it creates a thunderstorm of activity that could not be predicted and the whole system goes in chaos.
And eventually it will reach equilibrium.
But I love the movie, Jurassic Park.
I was just thinking of the Jeff Goldblum character with the water on the hand and which way it goes, right?
Well, no, no. It was when they were in the dining room when he said to the guy that created Jurassic Park, the older guy, and he basically said, you know, your scientists were so busy Oh, I'm sorry. I remember the quote kind of annoyingly.
They were so busy wondering if they could, they never thought whether they should.
Exactly. And this is where philosophy comes into this, is that asking that question, are we too hubris to be messing around with this stuff?
And if so, what sort of procedures, policies, checkpoints could be put in place?
This philosophy has a lot to do with solving this problem.
Because there's hubris in the scientific community that they know all.
Well, people also forget...
I'm sorry to interrupt, but just a minor rant here.
People always forget...
They think censorship is, you know, people...
Showing up at your door and throwing you in jail for a tweet and there certainly is that aspect of censorship.
They think of social censorship like you lose your job or you lose your income or in some way because you posted something that the mob doesn't like.
But scientific funding is censorship and people always forget that whoever pays the piper Falls to tune.
And if the government is funding, then the promise or withholding of funding is a form of very brutal censorship on the scientific community, which is why you get this grouping, which is why you get this conformity, which is why people, I think that their trust in scientists, given the failures of the peer review process,
given some of the inconsistencies in global warming panic scenarios, and this as well now, where people may have created this virus that's going to take out some percentage of the world population, it's like, It goes back to the injustice and coercion of scientific funding and how much it gets people to fall in line and not question an orthodoxy, which is the exact opposite of what the scientific method is for.
Exactly. You know, anyone that has written research, they have to go through a peer review process, you know.
But sometimes there's dogma in that peer review process.
And if you're a unique thinker, someone that is like a paradigm breaker...
Paradigm shifter. It's really hard to get your research through that, right?
So I think what happened with the Indians, the research was pulled down not because of bad methodology, was because of the whole system and of how it's funded, how labs are funded.
Now, what's happening with United States scientists?
I think it's very similar.
Look at what happened with Lieber, Professor Lieber at Harvard.
He was charged for espionage.
You know, he was leaking classified information to the Chinese through the Thousand Talent Plan that was published in 2008.
He was part of that.
And there were other graduate students in other universities in the Boston area that were tied to this.
And he was a chemist and a biologist focused on nanotechnology.
So, kind of like, there is, we've been infiltrated, that's one problem.
Another problem is the peer review process and the paradigm shifting, which I think all disciplines, even in philosophy, have to manage through.
But there is this afraid to step out onto the battlefield, is what I call it, and actually try to make a difference and warn people that something's up.
You may not have, because of the fog of war, you may not have all the pieces.
It's very cloudy.
But that's the battlefield.
By the time everything is said and done, we'll understand what really happened.
But we're living in the now, and we have to act on the present and not wait for the historians to tell us what happened.
So there is going to be this fog of war.
But I think the scientists, they have this mindset that, well, I need more data.
I need more data. I need more data.
Well, that's true, but you also have to have some intuition to move the ball forward while you're waiting for more data.
Well, and of course, China, the last thing that China would want is any scientific consensus that this was an engineered virus, because that would be beyond appalling in terms of the world community, one of the worst things that would have happened in the world community since the Second World War, really. Okay, so let's talk about this last thing, because of course you have expertise in finance as well, which I really appreciate.
A real widening of perspectives at the moment on coronavirus, on the outbreak, in that, you know, you have some people saying, hey man, the death rate is vastly overestimated.
It's under control. It's just the flu.
We're overreacting.
It's going to come and go. We're all going to look silly in a couple of weeks.
And there are other people who are, I'm trying to sort of navigate between these two positions.
Usually the truth is in Aristotelian means somewhere in the middle.
And other people who are saying, you know, this is the end of the world as we know it.
The economy is going to collapse.
The dollar is going to evaporate.
They're going to monetize the debt. Well, they're kind of already doing that at the Fed these days.
What is it? 2.2 trillion plus another 500 million or something over the last day or two and 0% interest rates for those close to the centers of power.
Where do you think the response?
I mean, we can focus on America.
I know that you live in the States. So where do you think the response is relative to the risk?
I'm going to say something really, really scary.
And I don't mean to scare people because I've spent a lot of my time trying to help people and calm people down.
But this is much worse than Lehman.
You look at the VIX. The VIX is already trading in 83, or the last I looked, it was mid-80s, 85, something like that.
Okay, so can you tell people what that means?
That would be good. All right, the VIX index is like a risk index on stocks.
The higher the number, the more risk there is.
Now, normally, risk is heterocidastic.
It spikes and it comes down really quick.
It's rare, very rare to have elevated risk.
We are seeing elevated risks day after day after day after day.
That only happens like maybe in a war or a major catastrophe, a banking crisis.
The last time that we have seen this dynamics on the VIX is Lehman.
It didn't happen during the tech bubble.
It didn't happen with Gulf War I. It didn't happen with Gulf War II. It didn't happen with Afghanistan.
Not 9-11. It was Lehman.
Oh, and just for those who don't know, sorry, for the younger audience members, we're sort of middle-aged guys.
So for younger audience members, Lehman was the beginning of the dominoes that, well, almost brought down the world financial system in 07, 08.
So, sorry, just wanted to put that little point of reference in, but go ahead.
All right, so it's important to understand the fragility of the banking system.
Back mid last year, we were already having problems with the repo market, right?
And so the central banks, the Federal Reserve, kept on pumping money in because the banks weren't liquid.
That was when times were good.
This is July of last year.
Now, fast forward to where we're at right now.
And people want to take money out of the bank.
People aren't working.
They're not spending.
Some loans are probably defaulting.
So the banks were already fragile.
Now, the VIX is an indicator of what risk is building up in the system.
And it's elevated.
It's not heterocidastic.
It's not coming down quickly.
It's elevated, just like Lehman.
So I really believe that we are in 1929 or worse.
Because 1929, it was about fear, about markets.
This is a virus that's shutting down the economy.
And the virus doesn't care about how much money is pumped in by the Federal Reserve.
It has no transmission connection to that.
All it cares about is its host and how to divide and how to multiply and how to get in the spread.
It doesn't care about the Federal Reserve.
The problems that we had with 1929 were somewhat agricultural.
And, you know, and stock market related.
Well, it was a lot of policy problems.
And, you know, the lever that causes the problem you can use to solve the problem.
And so, given that they were flooding the market with funny money, given that they were manipulating interest rates, at least you have a lever that can undo that kind of stuff.
Which, of course, they didn't do.
The 13-year Great Depression culminating in World War II. But as you point out, yeah, this is not a policy issue.
Now, policies have made it a bigger problem than it should be.
The fact that they crushed down interest rates, the fact that they did bail out all of the financial companies, the fact that back in 07-08 meant that they didn't rationalize the system, the resources were still trapped in a lot of these zombie companies in bad management, the fact that companies have been using these Crazy zero interest loans and these bailouts to buy back their own stock and retire wealthy.
So there's been a lot of policy problems that have meant there's not a lot of resources available to deal with this virus.
But as you point out, yeah, the virus doesn't care what the interest rates are.
So now that everyone's in the mess, policy is not going to be able to solve.
I mean, to me, a laissez-faire policy would solve it, but that's not about to happen.
But you're right. Yeah, of course, it's not a political animal.
Right. It's important to understand that the virus is gonna burn through the United States.
It's gonna burn through the world, all right?
And it's gonna last for 18 to 20 months.
This is not four weeks, three month thing.
It's 20 months. The level...
Of activity of the virus, we don't know.
It's going to be spiky.
But the actual amplitude of that spike, we don't know.
But because of the health conditions of North Americans, especially in the United States, we're unhealthy people.
Half of the population is unhealthy slash geriatric.
And this is the problem.
This virus takes advantage of that.
I'm probably stepping out on a limb here compared to other people, but 165 million Americans are going to be infected with this virus in 20 months.
Most of them will have mild cases.
One-sixth of the ones that are infected will have severe case.
25% of them, which is about 6.9 million people, will die from complications of COVID-19 because of the health situation and the geriatric component.
For example, to try to bring it down to reality of what these statistics say.
My mother is 73.
She has severe COPD. She was a long-term smoker and severe COPD. She gets this virus and three days she's dead.
That's what that means.
My father, he's 76.
He has some elevated blood pressure controlled by statins.
If he gets it, probably in 14 days he's dead.
That's what that means.
And there's a lot of Americans that have parents that fall in this category.
So it's not out of the realm of possibility of what I'm saying.
So that's why trying to shut down society, almost biblically in a way, the 40 days and 40 nights as the angel of death comes through, Let it burn out, and then the population can try to rebuild.
Unless they come out with a therapeutic, a pharmacological therapeutic that cuts it in its tracks right away, I really believe that we could see 6.9 million people die in the United States from complications of COVID-19.
Because these diseases they have, they can't take the viral load.
Their system is so compromised, they can't fight the infection.
Now, people like you and I, we're relatively healthy, we probably can take the hit.
But what does that mean when we're in our 60s or 70s?
When this next round happens, we're going to be just like our parents, you know, with the ailments, the heart diseases.
Because remember, this thing attacks the myocardium.
So it's a problem.
So that is the virus part of it.
Then you can just imagine the shutdown of the economy as the deaths are happening and the need for quarantining or what they call in New York, shelter in place.
But the economy is going to be shutting down and the supply chains are going to be shutting down and you're going to have 50% unemployment.
This is going to be worse than the Great Depression and worse than Lehman.
So you're going to have deaths and a complete destruction of the economy.
Now, what will happen, I believe, is that people will be so scared This is where 9-11 comes in.
People have been listening to my channel.
9-11 happens, people get scared, and the Patriot Act comes into place.
And that set in motion a ballooning of government where it created a TSA, the Homeland Security, and all these, you know, surveillance kind of technologies.
FISA courts and all this.
And we know about the abuses that can happen with an over-surveillance.
That can happen.
That have happened. Yeah, right, exactly.
But even your channel, you know, talks about the big eye in the sky, right?
So, you know, but...
What will happen is something similar to that, what I call the Biopatriot Act, will be instituted.
And it will force decashing.
And decashing has been on the books, at least in the working papers at the IMF, where they don't want coinage.
They don't want bills. They want all of the money supply in the banking system.
You can't ever take it out.
Never have a bank run.
So if the virus can be spread on dollar bills or coins, people will have the fear just like they had during 9-11.
You know about the psychology of fear, right?
And the cortisol levels go up and people just want a solution when they're in fear.
Well, the government will say, well, the solution is decash.
And we'll have a blockchain-type technology that the central bank issues, and we are now in a 100% digital currency.
Well, then you add in the social scoring, you add in forced vaccinations that are tied into the BioPatriot Act, and then if you don't get your vaccine, you can't get your money out, you can't get your job, and you can see the total...
You know, totalitarianism that will take place with this Biopatriot Act rolling out because of this virus causing such havoc in the economy.
So it's almost like this scenario, if it plays out, the ball, of course, it's almost like China is spreading totalitarianism through a virus.
In a strange way, it is.
This virus seems to be, you know, carrying the Chinese flag.
You know, the CCP, the CCP flag.
Yeah, in a strange way, that we will see, you can see it now, it'll first start with socialism, and then it'll go to totalitarianism.
And the socialism policies that we're starting to see take place in the United States right now.
Here's a check. Here's a grant.
Here's this. Here's that. It's almost like Atlas Shrugged.
People need to watch the movie or read the book.
It's a big book, so it's going to take a little while.
But the thing is that you're starting to see people bugging out.
You hear about technologies that could maybe supplant combustion engines.
There's a lot of similarities.
They had the special coin in Atlas Shrug.
This is kind of like the decaching thing.
There's a lot of similarities.
How Ayn Rand knew this, if it was the Akashi record or what, I don't know.
But there's a lot of similarities in that book and what's happening right now.
So... I'm afraid we're going to lose our country.
I'm afraid of losing our civil liberties.
I'm afraid of this idea of forced vaccinations.
And I'm in the realm of medicine.
The reason why I was transitioning from finance to medicine is to go to medical school.
So I'm I want to help people.
I want to learn about the biology of the body and all that.
I'm not this kind of person that's a conspiracy theorist against science.
I'm not that. But I do feel that this is an opportunity people are using to roll out Well, it's a tough situation as a whole because for those who feared that America was going to lose itself through demographic change anyway, at least this is slowing that down by closing borders.
It's a complicated situation.
So listen, great information.
Just if we can spend a couple of minutes now that we slash you have scared the pants off people, if you can give people some of your thoughts about how sort of average person can prepare for a worst case scenario.
Well, we're probably going to see...
I've been telling everybody you need to prepare, all right?
And how to prepare is you need food.
That's the very first thing.
It's the hierarchical of needs, right?
So it's food and shelter, right?
Your shelter is probably okay.
But you need to prepare for food.
Four weeks is not enough.
Probably two months or more is what's needed.
The medical system is not going to be able to take care of you.
And I'm a fan of the medical system.
Well, not a fan, but we're going to have to go to the homeopathic remedies because you're not going to be able to get the 21st century healthcare.
Some people will, but we're going to have a breakdown in being able to get to a doctor.
So you need to try to boost up your immune system the best that you can.
So that's the vitamins, the minerals.
I can tell you what I do, and maybe people can copy it.
I do multivitamins.
I do vitamin C, zinc, NMN, C60, DNA force, which is PQQ, CoQ10, and iodine and filtered water.
No fluoride.
Nothing. No toothpaste fluoride.
Stay away from the fluoride.
That's to boost the immune system.
Okay? Now, if I get sick...
I worked with some researchers in Europe, and we looked at terpenoid and lignoid compounds that actually are protease inhibitors that you can get.
They're in low concentrations, but they are in the nutraceutical world.
You don't have to go to a doctor for it.
The doctor version is much stronger, protease inhibitors.
But if you purchase, I'm using, if I get sick and I can't get to a doctor, I use Forscaloan, Rilora, Calendula, Licorice Root, And birch bark.
They're known to be antiviral, okay?
And there is scientific studies that some of the compounds that are in these kill coronaviruses in vitro, outside of the body, in petri dishes.
So taking that, and then the cytokine storm that can be created if you get reinfected, Sometimes if you get reinfected, it may cause an overreaction of the immune system.
You have to calm that down.
Anti-inflammatories like turmeric or rosemary, those compounds will help calm it.
You've got to take a lot of it because it's not the medical grade.
You have to take a lot of this stuff.
There are means On the homeopathic realm, if you can't get to a doctor, and that's important is to get those in your home for your family just in case you start getting sick and you don't have anything.
The colloidal silver realm or the nano silver realm will also help to boost the immune system, all right?
And are known to be inactive.
I got to be careful the way I'm saying this because of the current climate.
Known to inactivate pathogens.
And the government, and I know this for a fact, Homeland Security is going to ABL. ABL is one of the main labs that make nanosilver to buy big purchases of nanosilver.
And our military uses nanosilver for wound dressing.
You know, for on the field if they get cuts and stuff because it kills the pathogens and activates the stem cells for healing quicker.
But those are some of the things that you can get in your toolbox.
But you also have to prepare with, you know, the toiletries and the feminine hygiene stuff.
And, you know, a lot of people don't think of this or, you know, just overall hygiene products that you might run out.
You may only buy, you know, one week's supply of shampoo or conditioner or whatever.
People need the, you know, everything that you buy that you typically need, you need two months worth.
The problem is that causes supply chain disruptions because there's this big spike of demand.
For me to help people and tell them to go and buy two months' supply is actually, in a strange way, a negative feedback causing a problem for supply chains.
Well, not for those first in line, but I want listeners to this to be first in line.
All right. Well, listen, I really, really appreciate the detail on this.
Of course, you're not trying to give medical advice, neither is anyone here.
We're just talking about your own personal experiences, but I do want to remind people to check out Paul.
It's C-O-T-T-R-E-L-L, Cotrell.
It's got a great website, a great YouTube channel, and I'll put links to all of those below.
I hope that you'll stay in touch.
This is a very... Illuminating to the point where I'm getting a headache, but that's good, right?
So very, very illuminating discussion.
I really, really do appreciate it, and I hope you can join us again.
Yeah, I would like to. I try to unpack it as best I can in such a short amount of time because there is a lot of information there.
Well, I'm sure we'll get you back on.
I really appreciate your time. Thanks, Paul.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Well, thank you so much for enjoying this latest free domain show on philosophy and And I'm going to be frank and ask you for your help, your support, your encouragement, and your resources.
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