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Feb. 7, 2020 - Freedomain Radio - Stefan Molyneux
56:14
The Truth About the Coronavirus - NEWS!
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Hi everybody, Stefan Molyneux from Freedomain, back with a good friend from Hong Kong.
How is it going out there near the epicenter of this outbreak?
Well, there's a lot of detail that I can go into, but I would just like to start off with some statistics, or rather estimates, by some leading medical professionals.
So a Hong Kong U professor has actually Estimated the overall death of this epidemic to be around 1.4 million people.
There's also another statistic from another medical doctor that around 44,000 people could die from this epidemic.
And that's in Hong Kong, and that's based on 7.4 million residents, a 30% infection rate and a 2% mortality rate of those who are infected.
And that's assuming that it's at 2%.
And there are indications, I've heard different numbers, which I won't go into here, because the math is not, I haven't confirmed the math, but 2% is very much at the low end.
And that is really quite a staggering number.
Yes. Actually, I would say that the 2% number is sort of taking into consideration of, I think, the suspected cases as well.
So not only the cases that they have tested.
So if you're looking at only the confirmed cases, so the cases where they actually used the automated test to confirm that the person has the virus in their bodies, then actually the death rate is significantly higher.
So, there's a lot of, you know, technicalities, as they say, statistics.
It could be just another form of lying.
Well, it's because you've got the problem with statistics based upon what I would divide into the legitimate unknowns and the illegitimate unknowns.
So, the legitimate unknowns are, you know, how many people don't go to hospital because they're afraid that they're going to spread the virus.
Hospitals, of course, during a pandemic can become epicenters for the spread.
How many people are just dying at home?
How many people are dying in hospital but not being tested because they're saving the testing kits for those who are still alive?
So there's legitimate unknowns that not even the best system in the world could puzzle through.
And then, of course, there are the illegitimate unknowns, which is the suppression or distortion of the numbers for largely political or perhaps even economic purposes.
Yes, absolutely. Actually, I think both are definitely factors that we need to consider.
So actually talking about sort of gaming the statistics, there is a new theory going around that if you look at the incremental increase in the number of infected for today, you will notice maybe a slight decrease in the rate.
So I think some theories are I'm saying that they are trying to sort of game the figures a little bit so that they can actually get some major cities, such as Shenzhen or Guangzhou, both of which are close to Hong Kong, to actually resume work.
Because what's been happening right now is they've been, well, the central government has lengthened the Chinese New Year holidays so that people don't have to And the factories don't have to start up yet.
But eventually they will need to, so they are sort of trying to restart these two.
However, as far as I know, there are also some measures put into place to actually try and contain any possible spread, which is going to Inevitably happened because work and workplaces entail more interactions between people.
Well, and this is one of the things that troubles me with the people who you see all over the comment sections and all over Twitter saying, oh, it's just the virus.
Sorry, it's just like the flu. It's just another flu.
And it's like, if you look at the videos coming out of Wuhan with the sort of mass chemical disinfectant spraying, if you look at the number of sports stadiums and other arenas that have been converted into makeshift hospitals, if you look at the construction...
Of multiple hospitals at an extraordinarily high pace.
And if you look at the quarantine or sort of the limiting of movement of tens of millions of people, this is not just the flu.
I mean, I don't remember, I'm no doctor, but I don't remember a flu ever being treated with AIDS-type medications in the past.
So I just, I don't want to be a fear-mongering guy, but I think a reasonable level of caution and not just saying, hey, it's like the flu, somewhere in between, I think, is the best place.
That's, well, to begin with, I think the first time I actually encountered the U.S. flu theory that supposedly says that around 6,000 or 60,000 or some number.
It's a high number. I've seen a whole bunch, but, you know, it's a pretty shocking statistic when you look at how many people die from the sort of regular old flu every year.
Yes. So I don't doubt that, but At the same time, the first time I actually encountered this was actually on WeChat.
So my instinct was, okay, maybe there's something going on here.
So maybe they want to sort of comparatively downplay the current situation by sort of, you know, comparing it to the good old rival, the US. Yeah, so they want to...
You know, make it so that China is actually somehow doing a lot better and this epidemic is nothing to worry about.
I've seen a lot of these theories float around.
A lot of these get forwarded back and forth on social media these days.
I think now is just a key time to always, you know, the moment you're on social media, you just I feel you just have to turn on your critical thinking, and by default, every time you see a post, just don't assume it's true, because there's a lot of misinformation going on.
This epidemic, however serious it may be in terms of fatalities and infected, is much more serious in terms of the politicizing.
So Actually, I just read a story about the...
In Australia, I think there are some people who want to get the travel ban out of...
So basically, the Australian government put a travel ban on Chinese tourists, and some people are voicing out against that.
And when I looked into the article, actually there's...
It actually was, I think...
Initiated by some international students from China.
So that's basically got me thinking, okay, maybe there is a connection there.
Maybe they are – well, as we know, I think, not as a matter of fact now, that there are agents and there are people who are paid to sort of play that propaganda game outside of China. that there are agents and there are people who are
Have you heard anything about what I consider a kind of underreported and highly troubling piece of information, which is that a study some years ago had a coronavirus, not the 2019 NCOV, but had the coronavirus living on hard surfaces for up to 28 days under the right conditions. but had the coronavirus living on hard surfaces for up That is astonishing because that, of course, is hand on a piece of plastic, piece of plastic shipped overseas, and somebody opens it and then touches their eye and this guy –
It's a conceivable, as far as I understand it, a conceivable transmission scenario given, of course, that China is a manufacturing hub.
I mean, obviously less in the last few weeks or two, but that transmission scenario Where it's on the goods that are moving, do you know if any research has been done, I mean it's so recent it would be hard to even tell at the moment, on the longevity of 2019 ANCOV on surfaces?
The numbers I have seen are around up to, I think, 240 hours, so that's around 10 days or so.
That's a lot, even if it's shorter than what you said.
But I would say that does not really surprise me because there was always this mystery as to how it spread.
And initially, I think a lot of people were down the, oh, this is actually an airborne virus.
So it's fully airborne.
That's different from an aerosol.
It's when it can float in the air, it doesn't need to hang or piggyback on water droplets, right?
Yes, and that means that it will infect people who are much further away.
I think an example of that would be measles.
That's highly contagious.
I think the R0 is even higher than this ANCOV. But as far as I can see, there is no evidence of airborne transmission.
For me, I think the contact theory really makes a lot of sense.
It's actually always been in the back of my mind every day since this epidemic became mainstream and we all started wearing masks.
My theory is it's actually very hard to be fully aware of what you're touching all the time.
I feel it's difficult because it's actually...
Well, for example, I touch a doorknob and then I will touch my keyboard or maybe I'll open my MacBook before that.
But I'm touching a lot of things and in between them, I'm not really washing my hands.
Now, if a virus is able to actually last this long on a...
For example, I hear the metal services is where they last...
It lasts especially long.
Then actually you could be spreading them everywhere.
And it's just not practical to sanitize your hands every single time after touching a certain thing.
So I would say that to me would explain a lot.
I personally would attribute most of the infections just based on personal experience to human error.
So I would basically ask, how often does this average person actually touch their face every day, subconsciously?
How feasible is it to sanitize each surface after every touch?
It's not feasible.
How often does each person actually catch the annual flu or other respiratory illness that can be contracted or transmitted through fomite?
Is there actually enough supply of hand sanitizer, hygiene equipment, and gloves available for use?
Will people actually go as far as to always wear gloves when they go out and they go shopping or they go to the grocery store and they have to touch a thousand different things?
Just, you know, subconsciously, out of habit.
So, I think it's...
This vector of transmission is all about the little, little details that we miss all the time.
Just naturally, as human beings, as curious beings.
But also, you know, we need to work, we need to function, and to function, we need to use our hands all the time.
It's, yeah, the devils are in the details, and it's in human error.
Well, and as you pointed out, the hand-washing tradition is not very strong.
In certain parts of China, maybe even the majority of China, I mean, you can make rinse, but soap is less common, and soap is kind of the key factor to get the oils off your skin, which the viruses are embedded in.
Oh, absolutely. Actually, speaking of hand-washing, actually a lot of...
Friends, especially male friends, that I know of actually do not wash their hands properly still.
Basically what they do is they go to the bathroom, they maybe take a leak, and then when it comes to washing their hands, they will put their one hand under the tap, like For a few seconds and then the other hand under the tap for a few seconds and then put them together and then turn off the tap and then go and wipe it off.
I would say there's still a lot of people who do not come close to washing their hands for For 20 seconds, there's still a lot of people who are, you know, they don't follow the, I would, can I call it a procedure or like the rules?
The guidelines, yeah. Like you got to sing twinkle, twinkle, little star from beginning to end or whatever the equivalent is in Mandarin or Cantonese.
You got to sing a little song from beginning to end and then you have to take the paper towel and you have to turn off the taps.
I mean, what I do is I actually use my t-shirt or sweater to open the door to get out of the bathroom because you know the number of people who've just wiped their butt, who've grabbed the handle with fecal matter on it and opened it.
I mean, there's a whole thing. It's not just washing your hands.
And this is something I've been doing for like 30 years.
It's one of the reasons I've only ever gotten the flu once in my life, shortly after I got a flu shot, ironically enough.
But there's a lot that you need to do to keep stuff off your hands.
I mean, even in normal circumstances now, of course, the requirement is crazy high.
Yes, absolutely. I would say it's asking for people to score above 99 when the mean is maybe...
I'm not sure if it's even near 60 because there's still a lot of people who believe that washing their hands is just putting water on their hands and then wiping off.
Speaking of this, I have been cultivating this paranoid personality of mine because I have a part of my personality that really likes to keep things clean.
It's very compulsive.
It's about taking every precaution.
If I let that personality take over, Basically, I will be pumping that alcohol dispenser every time I touch something.
I have taken actually to wearing gloves when I go out to a crowded area or when I go to eat.
The reason is because I found, at least it worked for me, that when I'm wearing gloves, there's basically Zero chance of me touching my face inadvertently because I just really hate the feeling of gloves on my face.
So that's so far been working very well and I am looking to actually get to acquire more latex examination gloves for this use.
Yes, so it's however they are Starting to become sold out.
And I think there's a shortage of not just masks, but gloves, detergents, disinfectants, bleach.
And actually, this week, in a few short hours after a rumor began to circulate about a particularly large tissue manufacturer, I think based near Hubei, Well, basically, they put out a statement saying that we were going to actually stop.
Well, no, they didn't say stop, but they said our production lines are working well.
And actually, that provoked quite a lot of panic because, you know, don't, as I think one saying goes, don't leave anything and In politics, until it is officially denied.
So that came out, that jumped out at me.
And the moment I saw that, I knew people were going to head out and actually empty the shelves for toilet tissue and other paper products.
And I got myself some as well.
So if hoarding is a sin or a crime, I'm definitely guilty of that.
Let me ask you this as well, because there's interesting elements of this pandemic that have to do with both race and with class.
So as I pointed out in a presentation I put out yesterday...
There is a specific danger for East Asians and for East Asian males, of course, in that they lack particular inhibitors that would reject the binding or the absorption of this virus into their lung tissue.
Now, some people have said that's not just sort of an East Asian male thing.
thing, it's also because the smoking rate in China, this is unconfirmed, this is what people have reported to me, that the smoking rate in China is like 50% for men, but only 2% for women.
And if you're a smoker, then you're more susceptible to this kind of virus.
But you also pointed out something really fascinating to me, and unexpected, of course, it's the kind of thing you think about, it's like, oh, yeah, it makes total sense, but hadn't thought about it before, which is how class specific in a way, the virus is insofar as, you know, working from home for white collar workers, for computer programmers, for project managers, working from home for white collar workers, for computer programmers, for project managers, for, you know, salesmen and saleswomen on the Well, you can work from home, but if you are putting widgets together in a factory, you can't.
And this class divide as well is really quite fascinating because the white-collar workers can continue for the most part to earn their income, but the blue-collar workers, the working class, so to speak, it's much more difficult.
Oh, absolutely. Actually, I haven't actually been out for a week, so you can say that I have, you know, I think of myself actually like some of those nobles back in the Middle Ages when they had the Black Plague.
Oh, they just go to their country estates.
Yeah, exactly. So in a way, I sort of feel like that, even though where I live is nothing like a country estate, but it's Well, at least it's not in a crowded area.
And I think people are relatively conscious of hygiene.
For example, nobody actually uses their fingers to press the lift or any button now.
Everybody uses a pen or a toothpick.
So back to the race-specific or the class-specific topic.
I was aware of the trend that more men are currently being infected and also that more men are dying of ANCOV. I haven't seen the papers on the East Asian part yet,
but I definitely feel that yes, for a fact, that's true, but what's interesting to me is how people are Are receiving this fact.
When I tell this to male friends or male relatives, they sort of just shrug it off.
And they don't really see that, oh, actually, you are, I think, according to some estimates, 75% more likely to die of this virus than women are.
But it's People don't really get it.
They haven't really changed their lifestyle to accommodate for this radical new threat in their environment.
I would say that does bring me some distress because I feel that knowledge is useless unless it's applied and it mitigates risk or it Improves your life.
So I would be curious to talk about this part.
There's something else that I find really quite fascinating.
You really don't know the power of a government until it does something that's completely inexcusable.
Because then what you find out is who's willing to criticize that government.
Because for...
The Chinese government, to sit on the knowledge of this virus for, I mean, it's even hard to know for how long they sat on this knowledge.
A couple of weeks, month, month and a half.
But that could have made all the difference in the world if they had acted decisively and proactively rather than...
In this case, acting in ways that could have directly or indirectly caused the deaths of thousands, hundreds of thousands or even millions of people over time.
That is one of the least excusable and most horrendous actions, I think, that governments have taken.
They may win the prize for the 21st century outside, perhaps, of the invasion of Iraq.
But the degree to which the mainstream media It's not going after the Chinese government in the most scathing and vociferous terms.
I mean, they'll go after me.
That's the funny thing about the mainstream media.
Like, if you've been targeted by the mainstream media, because what?
I liked Poland, so suddenly I'm like an evil guy or something like that.
Like, just crazy stuff that they make up.
But then a government actually sits on the knowledge of a deadly virus, does not inform the world, does not act proactively to contain the threat, even though, as far as I understand it, the Chinese government's in charge of pretty much the entire healthcare system.
And I can't really complain about anyone but themselves since they are so authoritarian.
Man, they are getting a lot of get-out-of-jail-free cards from the mainstream media and from governments around the world.
This should just be...
I mean, gosh, when...
You know, there's this fantasy that Russia medaled in the US election in 2016 and you get years and years of...
Attacks upon the Russians, and here you have an actual case where a government sat on the knowledge of a deadly virus and thus facilitating its spread to who knows how many people.
We won't know for sure for years probably, if ever.
And yet, people are just talking about the virus without talking about the Chinese government.
That, to me, I mean, I know from Hong Kong, the view is a little more different because your relationship with the Chinese government is a little more critical.
But it really, boy, it shows you the real power in the world when something like this happens.
You know, I'm on the front page of the New York Times as a bad guy.
But you can't get the mainstream media to say boo to a mouse when it comes to criticizing the Chinese government regarding this monstrous dereliction of duty.
Well, yes. I think I can answer this in more than three ways.
Please, go. Illuminate me.
I'd like to know. I'm trying to avoid the pit of hatred.
So please, lead me back from the edge.
Well, first of all, I would really need to sort of Be grateful for the fact that I've listened to you actually for, I think, more than five, six years or so.
So I... When, you know, this epidemic, when I saw the government cover-up and the epidemic start and all that reporting from semi-neutral sources, such as the South China Morning Post, which is owned by Alibaba, which is now owned, well, it's basically CCP at the end.
Has he ever, sorry to interrupt, has he ever resurfaced?
Does anyone know where that guy is at the moment?
Ah, that's interesting because I think the last time I sort of saw him was actually last night on one of the WeChats.
There's this show with him actually singing karaoke with a few other, I think, billionaires from China.
And people were commenting, hey, actually this Jack Ma actually sings pretty well.
Oh, good. Okay. So he's back in the limelight.
Okay. Sorry. Go ahead. Yeah.
Sorry. Where was I? Yes.
I would say that just coming from that central premise that government is fundamentally based off of coercion, and coercion naturally includes manipulation, deception, and I would say this kind of psychological kind of things.
So just coming from that premise, I think it really actually helped me actually Achieve clarity a bit faster.
Actually, I was able to sort of see this neutral sounding reporting that the SEMP was doing for all of this time.
So for example, I think let's go to an example.
There's this video of a police drone actually going after an elderly woman in China, telling her to put on her mask.
And actually, this woman is actually basically chased by the drone back home because she doesn't have a mask on.
And behind that, actually, there's a soundtrack that is really cheesy and it's really lighthearted.
What I see is basically the SCMP, the South China Morning Post, is trying to make this a light-hearted matter.
They're trying to portray this as, this is high-tech, this is cool, this is futuristic, but it's actually...
It's really 1984.
It's way more than 1984 ever predicted.
I would say I'm really grateful for that clarity.
That's my first perspective.
I would say my second perspective is basically the government is extremely adept at They're more adept than ever.
With the help of big data, data analytics, data science, machine learning, all that kind of high technology and all the sensors that they have, they're more able to make decisions on how to actually manipulate people.
So, for example, when they have a kind of news that they cannot Is it confirmed?
I'm sorry to interrupt, but I've heard mixed stories about his actual death.
Some media outlets, I think Chinese media outlets, denying it.
Is it confirmed? Do you know if it's certain now?
Yes, as far as I know, it is confirmed.
It's quite unanimous across the sources.
So he's died.
And actually, most of the news, I would say, mainstream news, but also alternative media, has sort of focused on how sad it was and how he should be remembered.
Of course, there's also a lot of anger.
But I would say they actually sort of neglected to mention.
Well, of course, I can't confirm this firsthand, but You know, there are other sources that say that this dying doctor was practically killed through a neglect.
So basically...
Oh, I'm sorry to interrupt.
I've heard this. It's a very, very bitter joke that this doctor died of two coronaviruses to the back of the head.
Oh, okay.
Wow. Okay.
That's... But sorry, you were saying that there was sort of maybe a benign neglect that let him pass?
Yes. Yes, so I would say, according to my source, he needed intubation.
So basically he needed intensive care because his lungs were starting to fail.
And he actually needed artificial ventilation, mechanical ventilation, but actually they didn't do that.
So he was only given a higher flow of oxygen.
And so naturally that doesn't help.
So his life is significantly shortened and his ability to recover is basically eliminated.
And actually when he required resuscitation, reportedly they actually left him there for a few minutes before they started the CPR and the And sorry,
this hostility or lack of care, if it's true, is the assumption that it was based upon the fact that he did break ranks and start talking about the dangers of this disease against the wishes of the CCP? Yes.
So the premise, or reportedly, the higher-ups in the hospital that he worked absolutely did not like the fact that he blew the whistle, that he made them look bad, that he affected their chances of promotion, etc. And so they basically just left him there.
And he, I think, was also assigned to I'm sorry.
Before this thought vanishes, I really apologize for the interruption, but I just wanted to mention as well With regards to the fatality rates of this disease, right now, because a lot of people, of course, in China still have access to high-quality healthcare, particularly breathing help, as you talk, the intubation or whatever it is that's needed to keep the lungs functioning when oxygen processing is diminishing, when that system gets overwhelmed, you can't just snap your fingers and make more.
I know they're building new hospitals, but this is a lot of complicated equipment and you need a lot of people trained in it and so on.
I think the mortality rate is going to go up.
Absolutely. Actually, it goes back even before, well, in terms of the infection stages, it goes even before that.
So when the patient has breathing difficulties and they need the supplemental oxygen, I mean, in many places, they aren't even going to get that.
So, you know, the lifespan and the death rate is much higher because of that.
And that's probably one of the reasons why the rural villages are building these walls and trying to keep people out because they're a long way from that kind of help.
Oh, absolutely. And there's also the fact that most of these villages outside of the major cities are inhabited By senior citizens, older people.
And the thing is, there aren't clear numbers on this yet, but there are several sources that indicate that the elderly are quite susceptible to this.
So I think given this, they know that if they let someone in, that could be the end of them.
So it's really a life or death thing when they have those roadblocks.
It's a funny thing, too, because, I mean, I don't believe this as a factual series of events, but at a time when China is facing a very top-heavy population because of the one-child policy and other things, things.
I mean, Japan has not had a one-child policy, but Japan is facing the same issues with a very top-heavy, like an inverted pyramid demographic situation.
At the same time as they're facing an excess of elderly, boy, don't you know a virus gets out that takes out the elderly?
Again, I'm not saying it's engineered or anything like that, but if you put this in a book, people would say, hmm, that's a little bit too convenient for sociopathic policy.
Yes, yes, that same theory has floated around quite persistently.
Personally, I feel that I would say that in general, I think The stereotypical disease or epidemic tends to kill the less healthy or those with chronic disease or those who are physically weaker.
So I would say that whether or not it is a deliberate leak or an accidental leak or just a natural mutation, Or jumping of the virus from one animal to the other.
The results are more or less the same.
And I would say given enough time, that's my theory, that given enough time, something like this is bound to happen.
I'll go, okay, so that's kind of like Murphy's law.
Right, but yeah, so it's given enough time, something like that is going to happen.
And when that happens, it doesn't really matter what the cause is anymore, but rather the effects.
And so while I do have a significant interest in trying to dig into the theories and find the truth, I also feel that the future is uncertain, but at the same time we can build that future.
So in terms of priorities, I need to prioritize my time and thinking power.
We'll probably never know.
I try not to chase these ghosts that you can't figure out.
So I have two last questions, and I really, really appreciate your time today.
The first is, so when people hear that the Chinese people are eating leopards and bats and other koala bears and things, A lot of people are kind of shocked and appalled and it seems like one of these cultural bridges that's too far for people to understand.
And I remember actually back in my business days being taken out by a client who was very well healed, so to speak, to a Chinese restaurant and eating sea slugs and snake soup and so on and being like, wow, that's a long way from...
Orange chicken. So I sort of put forward the theory that one of the reasons that the Chinese eat stuff that is not traditionally eaten, at least in Western cultures, is because starvation over time, certainly under the collectivization of the farms under Mao, they just had to eat anything that moves.
But other people have sort of pushed back against that and said that it has a lot more to do with traditional Chinese medicines and the belief that certain animals possess strengthening or restorative powers.
Do you have any... Insights or thoughts as to how these eating practices developed and how they're maintained?
Well, I can...
I would say I would start from the current, you know, the current epidemic.
Actually, there is quite a plausible and actually, I would say, verifiable reason.
And that is, you know, if you remember earlier last year, there was a swine flu and you had the pork prices skyrocket in China.
And actually, I think China also had to import pork as well.
So the result of that was people went back to eating a lot more of other meats because it's cheaper.
So I would say there is a very pragmatic and I would say a market reason for the consumption of what the West would call exotic meats.
In this epidemic.
But going back to your question, in terms of Chinese medicine, indeed, there are such theories.
I'm not a Chinese medical doctor or anything.
But I have taken Chinese medicine.
They do all sorts of different things.
So for example, actually cockroaches are supposed to be Chinese medicine too.
The reasoning behind that is that cockroaches actually have extremely high survivability or they are very...
They're very good at surviving.
They can eat anything.
They are everywhere.
They breed quickly.
If you eat that, you will become stronger.
There is a lot of analogies that are going on.
I don't know exactly how they do it, but I feel that's a very persistent belief or actually theory in Chinese medicine.
The other part about Cuisine, I would say that Chinese people are very fond of variety.
If you look at the way Chinese people eat, it's a very communal thing or a very familial thing.
So around the dining table, people share food.
There are many dishes, and actually the more dishes you have, I think, I would say in general, the more well-off you can say that your family is.
And so there is a lot of emphasis on the variety, as well as the quality of food, as well as having Tastes that are unique to the region or exotic.
So when Chinese people go to another region in China, they want to try the tastes that can only be tasted there.
I think that's partly where the The consumption of exotic animals comes from.
Because you can get pork and beef and chicken everywhere, but in terms of things like sea slugs or snakes, that's quite rare.
You have to add, on top of that, many types of cooking that you can use to To process that food.
When you add that all up, I think it goes back to that variety theme.
China, to be honest, the CCP would want you to believe that it is one country under their system.
It's very clean and all.
But if you look at history, it's actually a melting pot of many, many different minorities, different tribes, peoples from different regions who have adapted to different circumstances.
Different climates, different environments, and they often have wars, and when one side wins, they conquer the other.
So the people living in the South will occasionally conquer the people in the North, and vice versa.
So it's a constant melting pot, but every region has their culture.
And so there's a lot of variety.
And I think that's where this exotic animal or exotic theme comes from.
The other question I have, which to me is central to the spread of this disease, you know, it's kind of funny when I was out in Hong Kong last year.
Doing the documentary, I had a long speech out on the harbour about how in the 19th century it was a fear of losing face, a fear of bringing bad news to the emperor, so to speak, that had the local leaders in Hong Kong not relay to the emperor how powerful and dangerous the British Royal Navy was and how well it was doing.
They were always downplaying the disaster and We've got it under control and everything's fine, you know, until they went up and destroyed the Emperor's Winter Palace and took all of his tax barges and then at some point he had to say, well, you know, it probably is worse than I think.
This idea of saving face is very powerful, is very strong in East Asian culture.
Not to sort of lump it all together, but help me understand.
I mean, nobody wants to look bad, of course.
Nobody wants to admit fault and make mistakes and so on.
But considerations of human catastrophes like NCARF 2019 should...
I mean, ideally, we understand should override those concerns.
What do you think it is in the Chinese culture, which I know has had a bit of a separation from the Hong Kong culture, but what do you think it is that it makes this sort of face-saving and shooting the messenger and not wanting to convey bad news, what do you think makes that?
Because more than just, I mean, this was occurring long before communism, so it's not just communism, although I'm sure communism makes it worse.
What is the basis of that in the culture, do you think?
I would say that, well, just describing the overall environment in which a phenomenon like this occurs, I would go back to childhood.
I would go back to how each generation is raised.
So basically, you have one generation and the next, and You know, the parents parent the children, and then the children go on to parent their children.
So there's a lot of commonalities that sort of will get passed down naturally, no matter what culture you are in.
So I would say that sets the stage for actually this theory that, well, can I go there?
Well, I would say that the family is actually in...
It's part of a country.
So if you look at Chinese, the word for country is 国家.
So 国家 is basically nation, family.
But 家 is basically family.
So it is very interrelated.
So I think a particular...
A philosopher or literati, if I can call them that, calls a, you know, whoever wants to rule a nation must first sort out his own family.
So there is this notion that the family affects the nation and ruling a nation is basically like ruling a family.
So when you see...
Posts or news items that come out from the People's Daily, which is the Chinese Communist Party's official newspaper, People's Daily.
When they say that we are one family and we should not fight each other and Hong Kong should make its peace with the mainland, That really actually resonates with people.
So it's a very central belief, I think.
That's the first thing, I think.
Building on top of that, there's the notion that...
Well, actually...
Okay, can you use the word notion?
There's a notion that the parent is the...
You know, it's above the children and will always be above the children.
So they have power over the children.
But more than that, they have basically supreme control.
So as you say, there is no greater imbalance of power than that of parent and child.
So that's well recognized.
But at the same time, that's recognized as an inevitable fact.
And that's used...
As a justification for decentralization of power.
So, viewing from this lens, the CCP views the people as its children and itself as a parent.
And likewise, the people are taught that the CCP is your parent.
In order to exist, you have to have a parent, and therefore, according to their logic, if you exist as a human being, you need to be ruled by someone else.
And that someone else, for example, the Communist Party, is responsible for everything.
It has I think?
Wherein to criticize a state is considered to be as immoral and ungrateful and unjust as it would be to criticize a parent.
And so the state is profiting from the relationship established within the family, which has people very hesitant to criticize political power just as they would be to criticize their parents.
Indeed. There's a name for this concept called filial loyalty, I think, or filial.
Is it fidelity? No, affiliate loyalty.
Yeah, loyalty up the genetic chain and I guess also if you view the state as a family up the political chain as well.
Yes, so the Chinese Communist Party and I think virtually everyone who has ever taken power in China has used that.
And so that is a central belief in Chinese culture or at least traditionally speaking.
Building on top of that, that means that your superiors always know best if you're in the workplace and you have an employer-employee relationship.
It means that your government knows best.
If they hide the numbers, it is for your own good.
It is for the stability of the nation.
Of this family.
They say that it is basically the natural order of things, and if you go against that, you will face the sanctions by law.
I would say that's part of it.
But at the same time, I think if I link that to modern management theory, I think there is a concept that is maybe useful to the viewers, and that is psychological safety.
So that actually rings quite true to my own life and work as well.
Psychological safety is basically defined as psychological safety is being able to show and employ oneself without fear of negative consequences of self-image, status, or career.
It is a condition in which you feel included, safe to learn, safe to contribute, safe to challenge the status quo, all without the fear of being harassed, marginalized, or punished in any way.
I think from this perspective, I see this current, the past situation in Wuhan, the healthcare workers being arrested for reporting the virus.
So that's totally predictable, given the low levels of psychological safety in those organizations.
So I would say, on one hand, you have the individual level, where the way they're raised, the very hierarchical, parent-always-knows-best mentality, and the parent-is-never-wrong mentality.
But also, when you put many people who believe that together, For example, a group of employees or a group of even Communist Party members in the committee, they will defer to the superior.
There is very low transparency.
They are afraid of conveying what the actual real situation is.
For fear of breaking this, they would even call that harmony, in Chinese.
I've seen that happen, and to be honest, in my experience, that makes a whole world of difference, no matter what team you're in or what organization or industry.
When people are not straightforward, the mistakes will roll and roll and roll and they will accumulate until they go past a point of no return.
And the way I see it now, actually, if I were to relate this back to the ANCOV virus, I would say that we are...
I'm not sure if we're there yet.
I'm not a professional, obviously.
But it's... To me, when I prepare or when I research, I always have the mindset of considering the worst-case scenario.
And the worst-case scenario, I think, is that this becomes, can you call it, an endemic?
So it's here to stay.
What that means is that A lot of people will continue to die of this.
And another maybe related possibility is that it becomes somewhat seasonal, like the flu.
So there's seasons.
There's sometimes where there's large outbreaks and sometimes where it's relatively quiet.
Well, especially because the mutation rate of the RNA strand seemed to be very high, which is why you have to get a flu shot if you want it every year.
So this mutation, I mean, you never know.
Maybe it could become fully airborne.
Maybe it could become even more virulent.
Maybe it could become less virulent and lose its ability to hang on water droplets.
Who knows? But I guess less virulent is usually not common because more virulent means more spread.
So that is a big risk that we're going to have a permanent fixture in the human landscape now.
Yes. This is, I think, a real possibility that the medical community is discussing or speculating.
Well, listen, I think we should close it here.
We've had a nice, long, juicy show, and I really, really do appreciate you taking the time, especially given our disparate time zones.
I really, really do appreciate you taking the time, and thank you so much for the information you're passing along to me.
Please keep me updated.
I will do what I can to get the word out.
I really appreciate your time today, as I said, and I hope that you stay safe.
I hope you get to see daylight soon, and I appreciate your time today.
Sure. Thank you for your time as well.
Your time is very precious.
I understand you have a very long queue of people who are waiting to talk to you.
So thank you very much for your time as well.
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