All Episodes
Previous Next
Plain Text
March 25, 2008 - Skeptoid
15:18
Skeptoid #93: Apocalypse 2012

The real science behind the events predicted in 2012. Learn about your ad choices: dovetail.prx.org/ad-choices

Transcriber: nvidia/parakeet-tdt-0.6b-v2, sat-12l-sm, and large-v3-turbo
|

Time Text
The 2012 Apocalypse Myth 00:05:01
Since the dawn of recorded history, humans have been predicting the end of the world.
Practically not a year goes by without some group claiming that it is the year of the apocalypse.
But the 2012 apocalypse, claimed by some to coincide with the turnover of the Mayan calendar, has left all the others in the dirt for notoriety and wide public belief.
The 2012 apocalypse is coming up next on Skeptoid.
A quick reminder for everyone, you're listening to Skeptoid, revealing the true science and true history behind urban legends every week since 2006.
With over a thousand episodes, we're celebrating 20 years of keeping it focused and keeping it brief.
And we couldn't have done it without your curiosity leading the way.
And now we're even offering a little bit more.
If you become a premium member, supporting the show with a monthly micropayment of as little as $5, you get more Skeptoid.
The premium version of the show is not only ad-free, it has extended content.
These episodes are a few minutes longer.
We get rid of the ads and replace them with more Skeptoid.
The Extended Premium Show available now.
Come to skeptoid.com and click Go Premium.
You're listening to Skeptoid.
I'm Brian Dunning from Skeptoid.com.
Apocalypse 2012.
Abandon all your possessions and run for the hills.
It has been foretold that the world is coming to an end sooner than you think, in the year 2012.
It seems you can't pick up any newspaper or magazine without reading that the apocalypse is almost upon us.
What really is going to happen in 2012?
Well, asteroid 433 Eros is going to pass within 17 million miles of the Earth in January.
The United States will hand over control of the Korean military back to the Koreans in April.
There will be an annular solar eclipse in May and a solar transit of Venus in June.
The Summer Olympics will take place in London.
The Earth's population will officially pass 7 billion people in October.
The United States will elect a new president in November.
Construction of the new Freedom Tower will be complete in New York City.
The Sun will flip its magnetic poles as it does at the end of every 11-year sunspot cycle.
And, as I'm sure you've heard by now, the Mayan calendar completes its 5,125-year cycle, presumably portending the end of days.
Mayans had three calendars.
They had a solar calendar that was 365 days long and a ceremonial calendar that was 260 days long.
These two calendars would synchronize every 52 years.
To measure longer time periods, they developed the long count calendar, which expressed dates as a series of five numbers, each less than 20.
Something like the way we measure minutes and seconds as a series of two numbers each less than 60.
And just in case this might seem too simple, for some reason, the second to last number was always less than 18.
The first day in the Mayan long count calendar was expressed as 0.0.0.0.0.
And by our calendar, this was August 11th, 3114 BC.
Every 144,000 days, or about every 395 years, which they called a Bakhtoon, the first number would increment and a new Bakhtoon would start.
Recall how we all got to enjoy the excitement on the millennium of watching the digital displays roll over from 123199 to 112000.
Well, that's what's going to happen on December 21st, 2012 to the Mayan calendar.
It's going to roll over from 12.19.19.17.19 to 13.0.0.0.0, just as it has done each of the previous 12 Bakhtoons.
There's no archaeological or historical evidence that the Mayans themselves expected anything other than a New Year's Eve party to happen on this date.
Claims that this rollover represents a Mayan prediction of the end of the world appear to be a modern pop culture invention.
It's true that the Mayan carvings of their calendar only depicted 13 bactoons, but what did you expect them to do?
Carve an infinitely long calendar every time they wanted to express a date?
The explanation could be as simple as they didn't expect people in the 21st century to still be obsessed with their archaic calendar.
Skeptoid Files on Doom 00:03:13
Another story predicting doom in 2012 says that a new planet, variously described as Planet X, a planet comet, which makes no sense, or the planet Nibiru, is going to pass so close to the Earth as to cause earthquakes and tidal waves and all kinds of destruction, possibly even flipping the Earth completely upside down.
This is an urban legend that's been around for a long time, but for most of the story's history, this was supposed to happen in May of 2003, as any internet search for Planet X will reveal.
Apparently, what happened is that the Planet X advocates, perhaps embarrassed or disappointed that 2003 passed without incident, heard about the much more popular Mayan calendar story and decided that 2012 is close enough to 2003 that it must be the correct date and that the Planet X destruction is probably what the Mayans were foretelling.
The Planet X legend got started by misinterpretations of astronomical observations combined with an ancient Sumerian carving that has been erroneously interpreted to depict a solar system with 10 planets.
Why the craftsmen who made carvings in ancient Sumeria should be presumed to have planetary knowledge superior to that of modern astronomy is not convincingly argued.
If you're interested in all of the actual science behind the Planet X story, there's no better source than Phil Plate's Bad Astronomy blog, which goes into all the facts, rumors, and sources in detail.
In a world that can feel overwhelming, spreading thoughtful, evidence-based content is one of the best ways to make a positive impact.
Ask your local public radio station to air the Skeptoid Files, a 30-minute radio-friendly version of Skeptoid that pairs two related episodes promoting real science, true history, and critical thinking.
And in these challenging times for public media, we're offering these broadcasts for free to radio stations, available on the PRX Exchange or directly from Skeptoid Media.
It's an easy ask.
Just send a quick message to your station's programming director.
By helping to bring the Skeptoid files to the airwaves, you'll help promote the essential skills we all need to tell fact from fiction.
Just go to your local station's website, find the programming director's email address, or just their general email address.
You can even use the telephone.
I know that might sound crazy.
It's an old legacy device that allows real-time voice communication.
I know that's weird, but hey, it's an option.
The world can feel chaotic, but you're not powerless.
When you promote critical thinking, you can help your community tell fact from fiction.
And that's how we shape a better future.
In uncertain times, spreading good ideas can make you feel helpful, not helpless.
Let's stand up for reason, truth, and understanding together.
Get them to air the Skeptoid files from Skeptoid Media, available on the PRX Exchange, and they'll know what that is.
End of Days Stories 00:05:16
Here's one more reason people are frightened about 2012.
About 500 years ago, Copernicus confirmed what Hippocras had observed in 2200 BC, that the axis of the Earth, which leans over at 23.5 degrees, completes one full rotation every 25,765 years.
This means that in half that time, 12,000 years, Christmas will come to Australia in winter and the northern hemisphere will depict Santa in Bermuda shorts.
Astrologers call this period a great year, and they divide it up into 12 great months, or astrological ages, each about 2,147 years long.
Each age corresponds to one of the signs of the zodiac.
We are currently in the age of Pisces, and, like the song says, we're soon going to enter the age of Aquarius.
According to modern official delineations of the edges of the constellations, we'll move into the new age in the year 2600.
But there's some disagreement, and some astrologers place it at 2595, 2654, or 2638.
A few put it much earlier, as soon as 2150, or even 2062.
However, once the news of the Mayan calendar broke, a large segment of the astrological community abandoned the official constellation definitions and stated that the age of Aquarius will begin in 2012.
So you can call this a third major reason why the world will end in 2012, but you have to be awful loose with your astrology, and you also have to think of some reason why the dawning of the age of Aquarius might bring on the end of the world.
I have not found any plausible claims for how it might have this effect.
So that's a lot of reasons, weak though they might be, to predict that we're all going to die in 2012.
However, there's one significant fact that the 2012 doomsayers all seem to forget.
Despite the various 2012-ish predictions for the end of the world, there are far more stories of apocalypse with different dates.
For example, popular interpretations of Nostradamus found predictions for the end of the world in July of 1999, December of 1999, June of 2002, and October of 2005.
It's also been said that his writings could mean the dead will rise from their graves in either 2000, 2007, or the year 7000.
Nostradamus never said anything about 2012.
Many Protestant Christians believe that the end of the world will come in the form of what they call the rapture, when the righteous will all be whisked away to heaven.
Shakers believed the rapture would come in 1792.
Seventh-day Adventists first calculated it would happen in 1843.
Then when nothing happened, they found an error in their calculations and corrected it to 1844.
The Jehovah's Witnesses made firm predictions for 1918, 1925, 1941, 1975, 1984, and 1994.
A book was published in 1988 called 88 Reasons the Rapture is in 1988.
A number of Bible scholars found firm scriptural evidence that the rapture would happen in October of 2005.
Thousands of Koreans gave away all their money and possessions in preparation for the rapture on October 28, 1992.
Even Sir Isaac Newton made a calculation based on scripture that showed the rapture could not happen before 2060.
Some Jewish scholars place the end of days via Armageddon in the year 2240.
I couldn't find 2012 mentioned in any of these stories.
In fact, James Ramdy's magnum opus publication, an encyclopedia of claims, frauds, and hoaxes of the occult and supernatural, lists 44 distinct end-of-the-world predictions that all came and went unfulfilled.
Why should we think that the 2012 legends are any different?
Any examination of the science behind any of the stories, even a glib examination, reveals a complete absence of plausible foundation.
Only the Planet X story, which is the most easily falsified as it depends on concrete astronomical observations that are demonstrably false, offers a proposed mechanism for exactly how this end of the world is to be accomplished, the alleged gravitational destruction.
Neither the Mayan calendar people nor the Age of Aquarius people have offered any claims for how or why the world will end, only that their particular legend points to a rollover in some ancient calendar.
My calendar rolls over every time the ball drops in New York, and I've yet to see this cause any planetary cataclysm, except for the guy who has to mop out the drunk tank at the NYPD.
Ancient Traditions vs Science 00:01:43
Many people tend to place more trust in ancient Neolithic traditions than in the observations of modern science.
There's nothing wrong with studying and respecting our predecessor's history for what it was.
But when you turn things over and start believing that scientific knowledge of the natural world has only decreased over time, you're not doing anyone any favors.
You're listening to Skeptoid.
I'm Brian Dunning from Skeptoid.com.
Hello everyone, this is Adrian Hill from Skookum Studios in Calgary, Canada, the land of maple syrup and moose.
And I'm here to ask you to consider becoming a premium member of Skeptoid for as little as $5 per month.
And that's only the cost of a couple of Tim Horton's double doubles.
And that's Canadian for coffee with double cream and sugar.
Why support Skeptoid?
If you are like me and don't like ads, but like extended versions of each episode, Premium is for you.
If you want to support a worthwhile nonprofit that combats pseudoscience, promotes critical thinking, and provides free access to teachers to use the podcast in the classroom via the teacher's toolkit, then sign up today.
Remember that skepticism is the best medicine.
Next to giggling, of course.
Until next time, this is Adrienne Hill.
From PRX.
Export Selection