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Oct. 19, 2024 - Sean Hannity Show
30:26
Poll Updates - October 18th, Hour 2
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This is an iHeart podcast.
All right, thanks, Scott Shannon.
Hour two, Sean Hannity show on a Friday, toll-free.
Our number is 800-941.
Sean, if you want to be a part of the program, only 18 days to election day, early voting ongoing in states, some record voting, according to some reports, in states like Georgia, North Carolina, and elsewhere.
And we're going to keep an eye on it.
We should have more data, more information next week.
Who's voting, what counties, whether they tend to lean red or blue.
And as we get that anecdotal information, we'll pass it all on to you.
With all that said, if you haven't registered to vote and you want to register, if you still can in your state, we put all the details as a public service on Hannity.com.
When early voting starts and stops in your state, your Commonwealth, that's on Hannity.com.
Kamala, in her own words, is a public service on Hannity.com, Tim Walz, in his own words, as a public service.
Look, it is now overwhelming where the American people are in terms of the direction of the country.
The poll I've been citing this week, 79% of Americans polled think that this country is headed in the wrong direction.
We have, according to a new Gallup poll just released, 52% say that they and their families are worse off today than they were four years ago.
Only 39% say they were better off.
Usually, you know, those economic indicators, peace and prosperity, matter.
If you look at the issue of peace, well, we have war in Europe, war in the Middle East, and Israel on the verge of responding to the 200 ballistic missiles that Iran directly fired into their country.
So, and of course, we have the leader and the architect of the October 7th attack taken out, and Kamala Harris trying to take credit.
Oh, justice was done.
Well, she was the one that was saying over and over again, don't go into Rafa.
Well, guess where they found him?
They found Sinoir in Rafah.
Like they shouldn't have taken out the 32-year-old leader, 32-year leader of Hezbollah, and that guy's named Nasrallah.
And they took him out, and they took out the top five leaders of Hamas.
And the Pager incident, the walkie-talkie incident, I mean, some of the most incredible military efforts ever.
But, you know, where are we in terms of the country?
Where are we in terms of where are people?
A snapshot in time.
Now, we're going to bring in our pollsters here in a second.
But before we do, I just want to say something.
And I said I would say it every day, and I'm going to keep my promise.
And some of you might think it's annoying.
I hope you don't.
I hope you understand why I'm saying it because it can't be repeated often enough, in my view.
Is when I look at the polls and I make the comparison, I look at polls every day.
I look at betting markets every single day.
I can go through them all in great specificity and great detail, and I often do on this program.
And I just remember one thing: 2022 was supposed to be a red wave year.
Now, I think this is a different time.
I think the issue of abortion has been clarified.
I think the fear-mongering is not working this time.
But I look at certain other things that tell me, wow, this is pretty impressive.
For example, if you go back to 2020 and you look at the polls, right now, Joe Biden was up by 8.9% nationally on Donald Trump.
Right now, Kamala Harris is leading by 1.6, real clear politics average.
That would be a net of 7.3 for Donald Trump.
If you look at the battleground states, Joe Biden was up 4.4 in 2020.
Now Donald Trump is up by nearly a point in 2024.
I mean, that is a dramatic turnaround, an addition of, you know, 5.2% spread.
If you look at the favorability rating in 2020, it was Democrats plus 18.3.
This year, it's Democrats plus 7.1.
That's a net gain for Donald Trump of 11.2.
Again, these are the real clear politics average, all the pollsters in the country.
Some are more reliable in my view than others.
But putting all that aside, that's a dramatic shift.
We have Fox News national head-to-head poll.
And in that poll, Donald Trump is winning by two points.
If you look at Georgia, we just got a new poll out.
It has Donald Trump up by three.
If you look at Insider Advantage, and that would be our friend Matt Towery who's going to join us.
You have Donald Trump by two.
If you look at the national race, Emerson has Harris up 50-49.
That's how close it is nationally.
If you look at Harris X, it's a two-point race for Harris.
And again, nowhere near the numbers that Hillary Clinton had in 16 or 20.
But I don't want you to take that to the bank.
And I think everybody, especially if you live in Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, that you have to assume that your vote will determine the outcome of this race.
But when 79% of the country think that we are on the wrong track, that is very, very revealing.
You have polls out showing the congressional ballot has now moved towards the Republicans.
That's the first time during this election cycle that I have seen.
That's the Harris X poll.
It's very close in the Emerson poll.
In Arizona, CBS has Donald Trump up in Arizona.
He's also, Rasmussen has him up in Wisconsin.
Michigan, you have MNS Mitchell research, which is a Michigan poll, has Trump up by one, very, very close.
Rasmussen has it tied in there in New Hampshire.
We had earlier polls this week from Quinnipiak showing Georgia going Donald Trump's way by a big margin.
I think this is an outlier myself, 5246.
And then, but they had Trump down by three in North Carolina.
I think a lot of people are worried about turnout in North Carolina, but there's no doubt that there's been a major shift.
Anyway, joining us now, Robert Cahaley.
He is the head of Trafalgar, the polling group, and Insider Advantage is Matt Towery.
Guys, welcome back to the program.
I mean, am I giving a fair admonition and analysis here?
Because I don't want people to get complacent.
I don't want this sense of urgency of this moment to pass.
I want people to understand that this is by every definition a tight race.
I can point to things that give me hope and things that, you know, are frustrating to me.
Matt.
Well, let me give you an example.
So everyone's talking about Georgia's robust early voter turnout.
That's actually not true.
Georgia is down by, as of last night, by 27% versus 2020.
Now, here's the reason why.
Because the Georgia legislature changed the rules.
Everybody's not getting a free, you know, a mail-in ballot that they can send in.
You have to really give an absentee reason.
They're tight on things, and these absentee ballots are way down.
Now, you recall, that was the big issue in Georgia back in 2020.
It's no longer an issue.
So let me give the corollary of why people have to be concerned.
In Pennsylvania, they've already said we're going to take ballots to the last day, and it may take two or three days to count them.
So on one side, you've gained a little bit in terms of how things are going.
On another side, it's more iffy.
In general, Sean, obviously, Trump has the momentum.
There's no doubt about that.
And I want to say this.
We said on your TV show and your radio show weeks ago that the momentum had changed.
And nobody was talking about it then.
It happened, as Robert and I say in our polling, we saw it right after the second assassination attempt.
It accelerated after the VP debate.
And then they decided to put Kamal Harris out on these very friendly shows where she came across as vapid to the public.
They exposed her too much, and she started to plumb it like a rock.
Let's get your take and a snapshot of where we are.
And do you agree with my admonition, Robert Cahaley?
I do.
Because the Democrats, their get out the vote and any other shenanigans are very effective.
And they've had people on the ground in some cases for eight or ten months.
And the GRP just doesn't have an effort like that.
So, you know, they can outkick their coverage a little bit there of a couple points.
So it's important that everybody turn out.
You know, I really appreciate the research you did just then.
I know he's a friend of yours and he's on your show, but Bill O'Reilly was kind of making light of my poll and Matt Towery's.
Excuse me.
Let me interrupt and just say as a fact that in 2020 and 2016, you were two of the top pollsters, the most accurate pollsters in the presidential race.
Period.
End of sentence.
That is an indisputable fact recognized by RealClaire Politics, among others.
Yes, sir.
And that was why to suggest because we had a breakdown of 55% women and 45% men meant that we were putting our thumb on the scale for Kamala.
You know, he probably should have done his homework.
That was exactly what the turnout was in Georgia in 20 and 2016, exactly 55, 45.
So maybe he should do his homework like you do.
Well, okay, I'll bring you in O'Reilly.
You guys can fight it out.
Wait, Annity, I want to say this.
All right, here we go.
I'll let you both fight it.
I'll let all three of you fight it out.
I don't really care.
Bill loves a good fight, too.
I've been on Bill's show many times in the past.
I love him.
I do not want a book, Robert, called Killing Matt and Robert.
Okay.
No, the next book is going to be Killing Hannity, so don't worry about it.
It'll be fine.
All right, quick break.
More with our pollsters.
Matt Towery, Robert Cahaley, and your calls on the other side.
Continue with our pollsters, Matt Towery and Robert Cahali.
You know, I'm looking at closing arguments, and I went through this in great specificity, and I went over some of it earlier in the program today.
And I think we now have the strategy.
The closing arguments are beginning to be set.
And I think with that said, I think I have an idea for Trump, what Trump's closing argument should be.
You know, Kamala Harris, you know, goes along with a caller on Charlemagne the God that Trump's, you know, going to bring in fascism.
She suggests that Trump will put non-white people in camps.
Raphael Warnock, that Trump will be dangerous to women and black men.
Joyless Behar, Trump is a fascist.
James Carville, Trump is a Nazi.
Stuart Stevens, MSDNC, suggesting Trump supporters could burn down voting centers to discount black votes.
So they're not going to run on, are you better off than you were four years ago?
And I think that then therein lies their big problem because we've heard nothing but this incendiary rhetoric against Trump, and they're just ratcheting it up in the final days of the campaign.
And if Donald Trump points out, are the borders more secure?
Are your towns and cities safer and more secure?
How do you feel when you go to the grocery store and you're dealing with Harris Biden inflation and prices up 25, 30 percent?
How are you feeling when you fill up your gas tank and you're paying a buck, buck fifty, whatever it is more a gallon?
And how do you think about America's role in the world?
And do you think that Kamala Harris is prepared to deal with Chi and Putin and the mullahs in Iran?
That's my final argument.
Are you better off than you were four years ago?
And they can go with their incendiary, Trump is whatever name they want to call him on any given day.
I think you're exactly right.
And the thing is, you know, he needs to say, are you better off than you were four years ago?
If not, then the people who made you miserable is the reason they're working so hard and saying, oh, this crazy stuff trying to beat me because they want to keep you feeling like you feel now.
And I think that's an argument that will work.
And by the way, referring to O'Reilly, 90% of what he says, 95%.
Wonderful.
Love to death.
But just wanted to call that one out because like five people texted me last night about this.
Matt, and by the way, she's had the worst 48 hours between the disaster that was the Brett Baer interview and not showing up at the Al Smith dinner last night.
Matt Towery.
Yeah, I'm going to say this.
I don't think there's anything that organically they can do to change the path of this race right now.
I worry about outside events.
Don't know what those might be that could change the landscape.
I mean, if a pandemic completely rocked the election in 2020, I alluded to all the million ballots that were put out in Georgia to people.
That's about the only thing that's going to change this thing.
Right now, he is, I mean, the betting odds in Britain are overwhelmingly for Trump.
And there are going to be some close states.
Robert and I know which ones there are.
Are there going to be better ones for Trump where I think he'll do very well?
But all in all, even with their great ground game, what Trump needed was a surge.
We said this a year ago.
He had to have a major sort of sweep of big-time vote and movement.
That's happening.
And that can actually outdo a ground game if you don't have a candidate and you don't have the support.
But Lord knows what kind of events could take place that could change the landscape between now and three weeks from now.
And I don't want to predict or guess.
I'm not in that business, and I'm not trying to be some sort of conspiratorial type.
I'm just saying anything can happen.
And a lot of times it's out of our control and out of the candidates' control.
So you both agree with me that everybody listening to my voice and your voices right now needs to think that their vote will decide this race.
And if that is the mindset, and putting the polls aside and putting the betting markets aside, that that will be the determining factor.
There are enough people in this audience that can make a difference, especially in those swing states.
Matt Towery, thank you.
Robert Cahaly, thank you.
Appreciate it.
He gives you the latest breaking news when he hits the air.
This is the Sean Hannity Show.
All right, 25 now to the top of the hour.
Here's our toll-free number this Friday.
It is 800-941 Sean.
If you want to be a part of the program, 18 days till Election Day, early voting now going on in many states around the country.
If you want to know how to register, if you're interested when early voting starts or stops in your state, your Commonwealth, we have all of that information as a public service on Hannity.com.
We have the Kamala files, Kamala in her own words, Tim Walz in his own words.
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All right, let's get to our busy telephones.
Let's say hi to Leon in North Carolina.
Of course, that state was hammered by Hurricane Helene.
And wow, so many people's lives have been uprooted.
Our prayers are with the people of North Carolina.
It was interesting.
Early voting numbers are showing that people, even in these hard-hit areas, are going out to vote in big numbers.
Anyway, Leon, I hope everyone in your state is okay.
Hope you're okay, and we're glad you called.
Happy Friday.
Happy Friday, Sean.
I'm a first-time caller.
We did great here in the small little town of Dallas.
We're about 6,000 population of about 6,000.
And I understand that 700 came in between the hours of 8 and 2 on first day of voting yesterday.
So they were pretty packed today as well.
Yancey County and all those hard-hit counties have also had good turnouts.
So things are going good, but we still need more help getting these folks to the polls.
Yeah, I understand efforts are underway.
I've made numerous, numerous calls about it.
I don't want to go into great specificity and detail, but there are going to be heroic efforts made to help people that have been so devastated and impacted by Hurricane Helene that if they want to vote, they're going to get the opportunity to vote.
But I mean, some people lost everything, but they still understand the importance of this election, and they want their right to vote.
They deserve an opportunity to vote, and proper integrity, full accommodations need to be made to help them.
And they should.
And, you know, if the list can roll out a cadaver who used to be known as Jimmy Carter to place his vote, then the RC can get these folks out to place their votes.
But like I said, I think we're doing pretty well.
So far, so good.
And you're right.
We need a House and a Senate majority.
Folks like to cast their vote for Trump, but they don't complete their ballots, and we need them to complete their ballots.
I think that's a great reminder for everybody.
I really do.
Leon, God bless you.
I hope you have a great weekend.
18 days to go.
Man, 15 days on Monday.
Crazy.
Buck, North Carolina as well.
Buck, how are you?
Our prayers for the people of North Carolina.
Glad you called.
Happy Friday, sir.
Happy Friday, Shauna.
It's an honor to speak to you.
I live in Wake County, which is Raleigh, and we're the biggest county in North Carolina.
And we've got a thousand people a week moving here.
Most of them are New York, as Linda would say.
And I got to tell you that.
Wait a minute, say that again.
Most of New Yorkers, like Linda would say, when she talks about coffee and talk radio, right?
You mean that, Linda?
I'm just checking.
Yeah, that Linda.
Yeah, yeah.
New York.
Linda's being awfully quiet right now.
But if a caller calls in and sucks up, if a caller calls it and sucks up to you, he's just stating facts.
Okay, he's talking about New Yorkers.
New Yorkers moving to North Carolina, which to be perfectly frank with you is a mass exodus because we're ruled by communists.
But I just hope they leave their stupid politics at home.
But what's the problem?
Well, in terms of you, you got out of New York.
You're not in New York anymore.
You're in Pennsylvania.
I do not live in New York City.
I commute to New York City, which I have to say is just as god-awful as living there, but I am happy to live in Pennsylvania.
And I want to go to the hospital.
Although we're under Shapiro, Shapiro sucks too.
So I don't know.
Six and one, half a dozen than the other.
I want to be on record to say, Buck, and you could be my witness.
I have pleaded with her that she work at home and not go through that long commute.
We actually have the technology, and many days she actually does work from home.
That's true.
So, anyways, Buck, back to you.
Back to you, Buck.
It's your ball.
Yeah.
So, anyways, so I've been, you know, I've been a poll observer and greeter and knocking on doors since Obama's first term.
And I've met these people.
When you talk to them, you ask them, well, you know, why did you move here?
Well, high taxes, you know, red tape, a high cost of living.
So you ask them, well, why are you trying to turn your new home into the place you just left?
And they don't have an answer for it.
But I got to tell you, I've got a good ground game.
And my point is that we've got, I did a little research, we've got almost 400,000 registered gun owners in this state who are not registered to vote.
And we've got same-day registration and voting up until November 2nd.
So my urge is to my fellow North Carolinians: if you are planning to vote and you have a friend, a neighbor who's not planning not to vote, go out, make the effort, get them, get them to get their friends to come because we've got this radical Josh Stein who's running for governor.
CNN did the hit job on Mark Robinson and he's suing them.
But 50 million bucks is not a lot to pay for defamation if he loses a lawsuit or wins a lawsuit and they have to buy the governorship.
But it's urgent, as you were saying, for everybody to get out and vote just because Trump is going up in the polls and they're kind of going off the rails.
We can't assume that, oh, he's got it in the bag and my vote doesn't count.
Your vote could be the one that turns, that decides North Carolina and our state could decide the election.
So I'm just urging everybody who's listening to North Carolina to get out there and vote.
I am urging the same.
Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada.
By the way, Monday on this program, I expect to be able to give you an announcement, a programming announcement.
We appreciate you, Buck.
God bless you.
I noticed that there were a lot of gun owners, according to the two reports that came out this week.
About 10 million, I think, gun owners.
Linda, correct me.
I think you sent me that article that are not registered to vote.
And about 30,000 evangelical Christians, I'm sorry, 30 million evangelical Christians.
32 million evangelical Christian voters are either not registered or not voting because they're disenfranchised for one reason or another.
And 10 to 11 million hunters because hunting season falls in the same two months.
So they don't go vote.
So you guys got to go.
Well, she wants a mandatory gun buyback.
And if you're a Christian, I would imagine you don't want men playing in women's sports.
I would imagine you believe in parental rights and you don't want like California, Minnesota, gender-affirming care given to minors without parental consent.
Those would be three huge reasons for both hunters and Christians to get out and vote.
I tend to agree.
Let's go to Keith in St. Louis.
Keith, how are you?
Glad you called.
Happy Friday, sir.
Thank you for having me, Sean.
I really appreciate it.
Thank you.
First thing I wanted to talk about, I know that Kamala was on Charlemagne the Gods podcast saying that, oh, if he gets elected, he's going to lock black people up, put them back in cages.
Is it me or did Donald Trump get criminal justice reform done?
I mean, you know, it's interesting you bring this up because I had a conversation with a friend of mine.
Her name is Alice Marie Johnson.
Alice Marie Johnson was given a life sentence.
One time, first time offense, it was a drug charge that she had.
And she made a big mistake in her life.
But they put her in jail for the rest of her life.
And all the years that all these Democrats were in the White House, Obama, eight years, they wouldn't even take a letter from Alice Marie Johnson.
And criminal justice reform came along, and that was Donald Trump.
And he dealt with the issue of disparate sentencing.
And Alice Marie Johnson has become friends with him.
And we're going to have her on the program soon.
And Alice Marie Johnson, as a matter of fact, she's going to be on Monday.
And Alice Marie Johnson got her life back.
And I'll never forget the moment because she never thought she was going to get out of prison.
Her story is so compelling.
And rather than being bitter and angry and not having a purpose in life while she was in prison, she's a very Christian woman.
She's got a heart of gold.
She made a decision that she wanted to devote the rest of her life to help the younger prisoners that would be getting out again and counsel them and guide them and awaken their spiritual side in the hopes that they'll never come back again to see her because she never thought she was getting out.
And it's just such a beautiful story.
And she's done so much good to help people, many people that are minorities, by the way, to get out of jail working with Donald Trump.
In my opinion, the president hasn't talked much about it.
And when I interview him, which will be next week, I think I should ask him about that because I would like to see him.
You know, I would like a deep dive into people that might be in prison or might be, you know, in jail that don't deserve to be in jail.
The Innocent Project, which I supported for a while until they've gone woke and left-wing themselves.
But there are organizations out there that do this full-time.
And I will give a tip of the hat, too, to Kim Kardashian.
She didn't know Donald Trump, and she went to the White House and got it done.
And now I'm proud to call Alice Marie Johnson my friend.
She'll be on Monday.
Anyway, appreciate the call, my friend.
Thank you.
And remember, historically, black universities and colleges, Donald Trump gave the biggest financial commitment ever.
You know, criminal justice reform.
It was Joe Biden, the predators, the comments that he made, et cetera.
Quick break, right back.
We'll head to our busy phones again, 800-941-Sean on this Friday, 18 days to election day.
If you want to know about registration, voting early, voting when early voting starts and stops, the Kamala files, the Walls files, it's a public service.
It's on Hannity.com as we continue.
The final hour of the Sean Hannity Show is up next.
Hang on for Sean's Conservative Solutions.
All right, 18 days to Election Day.
Let's get back to our busy phones on this Friday.
Let's say hi to Ann in the great state of Texas.
God bless Texas.
God bless.
I hope the people of Texas help our friend Ted Cruz.
We need him back in the Senate and don't fall for this phony all red.
What's going on?
How are you, Anne?
Absolutely.
Hi, Sean.
It's so great to talk to you.
What an honor.
Thank you for having me.
And yeah, definitely already.
Ted Cruz has got to be re-elected, and I'm pretty sure he's going to be.
If you saw the debate between the two of them, Ted Cruz had him the whole time.
So I'm talking about the debate here.
I wanted to say something about, well, not the debate, but whenever Brett Baer had Kamala Harris on the other day, what a failure on her side.
Like Brett Baer did an absolutely amazing job, but she would not answer a question.
And I don't understand how these polls are so close, Sean.
Please help me understand.
these polls so close anyone i i think there's one reason that i haven't really mentioned yet that we've got to understand here but nearly 10 years this man has been smeared He has been slandered.
He has been besmirched.
He has been charged.
He's been the victim of the worst abuse of justice in my view.
And he fights back.
And some people don't like the style.
But the fact is, is that in many people's minds, that caricature, and they've now ratcheted it up to he's a racist and a fascist and a sexist, and he's going to use the military and put liberals in jail, which is just a crock of Adam Schiff.
And I think that caricature stuck with people.
I hate to say it.
My father has the TDS.
He's got Trump derangement syndrome and love my father.
We have a great relationship, but we can't talk politics.
And it's so sad because a lot of people are like that today.
You just can't even talk to people anymore.
I don't know what to say, but that interview with her was horrible.
All she did was not answer questions.
That was terrible.
This has been a bad week for Kamala Harris.
And frankly, the joy is gone.
They don't know what to do at this point.
And now they're bringing in, oh, let's bring Barack and Michelle Obama in.
Barack Obama doesn't even want to do it if you want my opinion.
But anyway, I appreciate the call.
Thank you for being with us.
God bless you.
God bless Texas.
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