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Oct. 11, 2024 - Sean Hannity Show
29:52
Latest Polls - October 10th, Hour 3
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All right, news roundup and information overload hour toll-free.
Our telephone numbers, 800-941-Sean, if you want to be a part of the program.
I loved what I read today.
We will go over our latest poll numbers with our pollsters in just a minute here.
Donald Trump made the statement just yesterday that they had rented out MSG, Madison Square Garden, and to make a play for New York and New Jersey, said this in Scranton PA.
We just rented Madison Square Garden.
We're going to make a play.
We're going to make a play for New York.
Hasn't been done in a long time.
It hasn't been done in many decades, but we're going to make how could New York be run worse than it is, right?
With all the problem, everything is corrupt in New York.
And we're going to make a play, and let's see.
I mean, I think that, you know, the migrants, the migrants have taken over Madison Avenue.
They've taken over Fifth Avenue.
They've taken over the parks.
The kids can't play Little League.
You know, it sounds like a trivial thing.
It's a big deal when you have a son that's a little league player and he can't play.
So we're going to go Madison Square Garden.
We went to the Coliseum, Nassau Coliseum.
We could have filled up the Nassau Coliseum three times.
It was incredible.
We left there a few weeks ago.
It was incredible.
So we're doing Madison Square.
Now, we do have a lot of poll numbers that have come out.
But before we get to that, let me just set the stage here because we had poll numbers.
For example, Quinnipiak has Harris now down four in Michigan and Harris down two in Wisconsin.
And Insider Advantage, that's our friend Matt Towery, who will join us in a minute.
Donald Trump has a two-point lead in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.
But here's what really interests me before I get to some of the other polls.
Kamala is massively underperforming both Biden in 2020 and Hillary in 2016.
If you look at the real clear politics, it showed as of yesterday in 2016, Clinton was up nearly five points, 4.6 points.
On this date in 2020, Joe Biden was up 9.7 points.
I mean, a massive, massive lead that he had.
That is now erasing.
If you look at, for example, the latest poll numbers that have come out on the Real Clear Politics average, you see the Hill Emerson, very similar to Insider Advantage.
They have Donald Trump leading by one in Pennsylvania.
Is it close?
Yeah.
In Michigan, the Hill Emerson has it tied 49.49.
If you look at some of the other polls that I think are important that are relevant to all of this, it's a one-point race in Wisconsin.
North Carolina, Trump up one according to the Hill Emerson.
If you look at Georgia, it's a one-point race.
Robert Cahaley, who will also join us in a minute, has Trump up by one.
And the Hill Emerson has Trump up by one also in Georgia.
You look at some of the other states, you know, they are pretty much what you would expect them to be.
And then you can look at some of the polls that came out yesterday, the Quinnipiak poll.
It's a two-point race nationally with Trump and Harris.
I mean, that's a big deal.
And then if you look at Michigan, as I said, it's 51 Trump, 47 Harris.
And if you look at Wisconsin, it's a two-point race.
Well, actually, there's another Michigan poll that had Trump up by two in Michigan.
If you look at Wisconsin, it's a two-point lead in Quinnipiak.
Donald Trump over Kamala Harris.
Now, are these numbers numbers to take to the bank?
No, they're not.
I don't want people to react to the numbers and let this in any way impact how you approach this election.
You have to act as though your vote is going to be the deciding vote.
And by the way, I don't care what state you're in, but especially if you're in Georgia and North Carolina and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and Michigan, and if you're in Arizona and Nevada and all these other states.
Now, Trump is going to try for some other states as well.
That's fine.
If nothing else, it can help on the congressional level.
Anyway, here to join us are pollsters, Matt Towery, Insider Advantage.
Also, Robert Cahaley is with us with the Trafalgar group.
Guys, welcome back to the program.
I always like to, regardless of what the polls say, Matt Towery, I like to use the analogy that there's two minutes left in a football game.
You're on your own 20.
You have no timeouts.
You got to march down the field 80 yards, cross the plane, kick the extra point if you want to win.
And that is no small undertaking.
So I like that the polls are where they are.
I'd certainly much rather be Donald Trump today than Kamala Harris, but you know what the butt is.
Well, let me add to the 20 yards.
We have a new poll out right now that's in Michigan, and Trump's up by two in Michigan, a very solid two, I might say.
And the Senate race there is closing as well.
And then in Wisconsin, we have Trump even.
But again, the Senate race closing, which means the Republicans have some momentum up there.
Let me just add one thing to this thought about don't take these polls for granted.
There's one thing that we can't figure out because you look at crosstabs to polls, and some make them all available, some don't make them that much available.
It's hard to figure out exactly how these pollsters, other pollsters, are weighting their polls.
Suppose the New York Times, which they were terribly off in 2020.
And suppose that Quinta Piak, which was terribly off in 2020, and some of these other pollsters who sort of participate in the battlegrounds have adjusted their weighting to try to adjust for their lack of catching and finding the shy Trump voter.
In that instance, we may not be as far behind the RCP average in 2020 or 2016.
We won't know till Election Day.
But what we do know, it's a very close race.
This is certainly not the blowout that it looked like it was going to be for Donald Trump against him in 2020 against Biden, nor the blowout that was expected with Hillary Clinton.
This is a very close race.
All the British betting odds have moved heavily to the Trump side, but it's all about turnout, and it's also about recovery from storms.
North Carolina has taken a licking in Republican areas.
There's a controversy as to how much help they're getting or not, but these people have got to be able to vote.
And they've got, I think they have the incentive to vote.
There's no question about that.
But they have to be able to vote.
And that's not the first thing on their mind right now when you don't have cellular service.
You don't have electricity.
You don't have anywhere to go at night to sleep soundly.
A lot of problems there.
And Florida, you know, where I live in Florida, I escaped the worst of the storm, but so many areas really got hit hard.
We got three plus million people without power.
Now, I know Ron to say this.
We'll get Florida back in shape.
So I'm not as concerned about that.
But North Carolina, I am.
I'm concerned about North Carolina as well.
And I don't think you have a motivated governor.
He certainly wasn't even motivated to pre-position the necessary items, knowing a big hurricane was headed right in his direction.
Neither did Kamala Harris or Joe Biden.
But I can tell you, having Sarah Carter being on the ground for as long as she's been in some of the hardest-hit areas, that there are a lot of pissed-off people that feel abandoned because they were abandoned.
Robert Cahaley, your thoughts?
Well, there's no question about that.
And one of the concerns I have is that Roy Cooper is on the ballot.
So I can understand he may work very hard to get Asheville, make sure they get their votes.
But the surrounding communities are not near as progressive as Aspel.
And I want to see what those mechanics are.
I mean, literally, the mechanics of voting.
The post offices, some are gone.
Some of the places they would go to vote.
I mean, like, mechanics of voting are very important.
How are they going to make that happen for people?
And what is the incentive of this governor who has every reason not to do it to do what needs to be done?
I mean, I trust that Kemp is going to make sure that Georgia voters vote and that we're going to see the same thing with DeSantis.
But I'm really concerned about that.
And, you know, I spend a lot of time up there and I know a lot of folks up there and they do feel abandoned.
And thank goodness for people like Congressman Corey Mills and Samaritans Purse.
I don't know where these guys would be without a lot of this private sector help up there.
And they know it and they want to vote, but that mechanics is something that needs to be addressed.
It has to be addressed, but I can tell you, having spoken to both Senator Ted Budd and Senator Tom Tillis, they're going to make sure that these people are identified and given the opportunity, Republican or Democrat, to vote.
And that is absolutely something that they're working on even as we speak.
That would certainly be a good thing, Sean, because I can just tell you right now, it puts yourself in the place of the folks here in Florida right now.
We've had two storms in a row.
To give you an example, I live in a really great area in St. Petersburg.
My precinct was wiped out in the last hurricane.
So I don't even know where I'm going to vote.
Now, I know I can count on Ron DeSantis and the Secretary of State here to make sure I'm able to vote.
But as of right now, as I sit in a city waiting to go back home to my home in St. Pete, I don't know where I'm voting or how I'm voting.
So imagine if you're in North Carolina.
Well, I mean, you know, I understand that, and I totally agree with you.
But, you know, we'll have to see what happens.
Now, Georgia's a lot closer than I would like.
But Georgia also was impacted by this.
And Governor Kemp had to go back not once, not twice, but three times.
He originally asked for 90 counties to be declared disaster areas.
They only granted 11.
Then he went back to the White House, and again, he requested the 90, and then they gave him 30 more.
And then finally, they gave in, and they gave him the full 90 counties that he had asked for, but he had to work hard.
Did he have to talk to Kamala Harris?
Was that something he had to do just to get those counties declared?
I don't think Kamala Harris knows what day it is herself.
I mean, honestly, she was too busy hobnobbing with Hollywood elites to bother or care about or get on the ground and hand out bottles of water and food and get government helicopters flying into these remote areas.
If it wasn't for groups like Operation Hilo and some others, I'm not sure people would have lived or survived.
I think whatever the final death toll eventually is, it would be much higher but for these charitable organizations and neighbor helping neighbor.
Well, certainly the optics have been terrible.
I can't imagine why her advisors thought it was a good idea to go on the Colbert show and to go on The View and all these sort of light programming and chit-chat about issues as so much of the country was facing either post-disaster or another disaster.
It made her look weak.
And I think that's coming across.
The main thing that let me just add one other thing, Sean.
I think Robert could probably add to this, but the thing that we're noticing, and I don't know if this is true in Georgia, but it certainly was in Michigan and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, is the African-American male vote is just dropping out of sight for her.
Not that she's not going to get the majority, but she is losing that vote.
Every time we poll, the African-American vote actually goes the other way.
I've never seen this happen before in the entire time I've been polling.
And I poll a lot of southern states and states that have large African-American communities.
These numbers are going in the wrong direction for her.
They're not going down.
Usually they start at like 17 for Republican, then they go to about 12.
And by election day, they go to the usual seven or four or five.
These are going opposite.
They're going from like 90.
Well, it went down to Robert.
Didn't they go to like seven and 10 when she first became the apparent nominee?
And then they started drifting back.
And now they're in the 20s and going higher.
Yeah, I mean, they're approaching where they were against Biden now.
So the entire, you know, kind of new knit bump is over with her.
And it's actually becoming cool in some of those circles to be for Trump.
And that's something that I would have not predicted.
All right, quick break right back.
We're with our pollsters, Matt Towery and Robert Cahale.
Then your call's coming up.
800-941-Sean is on number if you want to be a part of the program.
All right, we continue with our pollsters.
Matt Towery of Insider Advantage, Robert Cahaley with the Trafalgar Group.
What do you guys make of what I mentioned, the Real Clear Politics average?
You know, as of yesterday, Hillary was up by five points in 2016, Biden up by 9.7 in 2020.
And it's only a two-point race today.
She is way underperforming both of them in terms of Real Clear politics.
How do you interpret that, Matt?
Well, as I said, I think it could be two directions.
I mean, the most likely is that he's simply doing better, and you're going to add a point or two to these final RCP averages, which are usually pretty reliable.
And he's going to do much better than we expect.
The other side of it is, as I said, I am very suspicious whenever I see a Quinnipiak come in with a poll that shows Trump up by four or five.
And I start thinking, okay, well, maybe they've decided to change the way they weight their polls because they don't want to be there with egg on their face come election day, just like no pollster does.
It's how you weight these polls that decide everything, Sean.
And we don't know yet whether they've adjusted or whether they haven't.
If they haven't adjusted, then Trump's on his way to a blowout state.
But if they have adjusted, then these are very close.
And I'm going to assume they have adjusted and assume these races are very close because turnout is the name of the game in the end, as we all know.
All right, Robert Cahaley, Matt Towery, thank you both.
All right, let's get to our busy phones.
Linda, could you say that again?
Can you do it really fast?
Of course.
That's going to be your message for Christmas.
I'm going to call you on Christmas morning and say that.
No, I don't want to call on, say it again.
You're going to call you on Christmas morning.
Christmas morning, that's going to be your Christmas present.
It's going to be like Christmas morning.
You're going to what?
You're going to call me call?
Yeah, I'm going to call you.
How do you say it?
Cow.
I'll call you.
I'll call you.
I'm going to call you.
Going to call you, and you're welcome.
Not call.
It's not call.
It's not crawl.
You better be careful or your ho-ho-ho is going away.
You're not even going to get your NMOS.
Oh, man.
If I can only tell you, Linda gets a little bit worked up as we get closer to elections.
A little?
That's an understatement.
That is an understatement.
Linda gets very worked up before elections.
And we love your passion.
We do.
But at some point, I just wish maybe you take a day off.
Just maybe a weekend day.
Fine.
I'll see you on Monday.
I'll be out tomorrow tomorrow.
You enjoy.
Are you really going to take off tomorrow?
Of course I'm not going to take off tomorrow.
We have work to do.
Exactly.
But maybe I'll take a day this weekend and not send you one text message.
How's that?
Are you serious?
You can't do that.
No, I would, no, I would, I would, if it would help you relax for a day.
I mean, I don't expect you to respond immediately to the text message.
You can go through them in your leisure.
And unless I write the words, call me now.
If I write, call me now, then that means you got to call me now.
That means there's some problem we got to get rid of.
But that doesn't happen very much anymore.
Thank goodness.
No.
Only occasionally.
Once in a while.
Once in a while.
Linda, by the way, is an expert at Starlink.
I had no idea.
And now I have my own Starlink system, thanks to my radio and TV partners.
And Linda's walking the engineer how to set the darn thing up.
Listen, I got to give full credit to Phil and Mark over there.
They barely use me.
I just said what I did, and Phil was determined to read the book and get it on his own.
So hat tip to Phil.
He didn't even need me.
We kind of did a little.
But it's amazing that you're so, that you love technology that much.
I can't stand it.
I'm just trying to keep up with Blair.
I mean, I'm a nerd, but he's a big nerd.
But I'm just, you know, now anything even on Starlink, you know, I love it.
I stayed in Florida.
I was not in the hot zone where it was really bad.
I was not even in an evacuation zone.
I was in a, you prepare to evacuate zone.
Okay.
That's where I was.
And anyway, so I'm watching and I'm trying to download this app that a friend of mine sends me.
And then it's like, I got to pay $99 a year.
I'm like, all right, I'll pay for the stupid app.
He says it's really, really good.
And honestly, I just, I downloaded it and then it didn't work.
I couldn't figure out how to make the stupid app work.
And then I figured out, I found another app.
They suggested another one, the NOAA app, which I downloaded.
And at least I can get a look anytime I wanted in terms of the track of the storm and things that I wanted to look at.
And it was fine.
But I mean, you would never have a problem with a new app, would you?
No, I wouldn't.
But I also wouldn't pay $99 a year for it unless it was operating my phone for me.
Anyway, that's why I call my kids.
Talking technology is not exactly my favorite topic.
All right, let's get to our busy phones.
Georgia, Brian is standing by.
Brian, you got to give props to your governor, like Governor DeSantis in my state of Florida.
I mean, he was prepared, you know, for the hurricane, Helene, and for Hurricane Milton.
And I know some areas in South Georgia were impacted again.
And I'm sorry to hear, sorry about all of that for the people in Georgia, too, but at least your governor was prepared.
Kamala and Joe did nothing.
My governor was prepared.
He had 50,000 people standing by stage for this hurricane.
Unbelievable.
Yes, sir.
Thank you for having me.
You and Newt earlier touched on a lot of the things I wanted to talk about.
But I would like to ask this.
If having an open border is unconstitutional, isn't that an oath of office violation?
Because they're willingly doing it and they're making the taxpayer pay for it.
That seems to be, I'm not sure if that qualifies as treason, but it seems if you're not doing, if you're doing it, breaking the law, a federal law on purpose, should there be more talk about that?
Well, I mean, I think the fact that they give all this money to all these foreign countries is something we as a country have got to examine.
Why are we giving money to the Taliban?
Why $200 billion to Ukraine?
And Ukraine is such a mineral-rich country that they could pay for all the weaponry we are providing them.
You know, why are we giving countries to why are we giving billions of dollars to Jordan and Egypt?
Why are we giving money to Sudan?
Why are we giving money to Somalia?
Why are we giving money?
Why all this money to Lebanon where they're firing rockets at our closest ally?
I wouldn't give them a penny unless the rockets stopped being fired.
I'm just sick and tired of it.
And the people of North Carolina, if it wasn't for OperationHilo.org and Samaritan's Purse, a neighbor helping neighbor and people with horses and mules going into the mountains of North Carolina, I guarantee you the death toll would have been much higher than it was.
Sir.
Now, some of these people that we're giving money to, these other countries, they're not our allies.
Would you think that even some of them would be considered our enemy?
Isn't that aiding, abetting our enemy?
I think it is, you know, look, Kamala Harris, who's on with Howard Stern, I watched this, and it was the most horrific ass-kissing interview I've ever seen.
And Howard was known in the day to be one of the best interviewers ever.
And he could have asked some real questions.
You know, it was, frankly, it just is awful.
And his attack against Trump supporters, if you support Trump, then you're stupid.
He basically is saying to every one of the people that used to listen to him 10, 15, 20 years ago, shoving the middle finger in your face and telling you to drop dead.
And I don't know what's happened to him.
But anyway, I'm watching this whole thing unfold.
And I'm just seeing how pathetic, I mean, these interviews did not help her.
They all hurt her.
Every one of these interviews hurt her.
Anyway, go ahead.
Media will definitely cover that up.
I think a lot of things I end my rants with is hashtag we need media reform because our media obviously has been bought and paid for by the evil corporations.
I don't want to say their names online, but Catwalk, it rhymes with that maybe.
But anyway.
Which one?
Thank you so much, sir.
Thank you so much for taking your time with me.
I am at work currently and I have to skedaddle, but thank you for.
All right.
You skedaddle.
Don't get fired over calling me.
Linda, I missed that reference.
What was he saying?
I think he was trying to find a word that rhymed with either black rock or black walk because there's a lot of talk about different people doing different things.
Could you say walk again?
No.
Say before you find it.
All right, let's go to my free state of Florida.
Roxanne is standing by.
Roxanne.
How many people in your life go, Roxanne?
How many people do that?
Oh, a bunch.
I mean, do you like it as a compliment or are you kind of sick of it?
But if they're able to remember my name and who I am, then go for it.
Anyway, what's on your mind today, Roxanne, my fellow Floridian?
What's happening?
Well, some of the things I think you kind of already tapped on a little bit ago, but some of the concerns I have, you know, here in Florida, we have the back-to-back hurricanes.
And we had time to repair.
If you evacuate, take your important documents with you, you know, leave.
But, you know, some of the people there in the Carolinas, you know, they had no warning with the floods from storm effects from Hurricane Helena.
You know, what they got out was on what they were wearing.
So now here we are coming up, you know, 20, what, 27 days from voting?
How do you go about identifying who you are when you have nothing to prove?
You have no documents to show that you're you.
You know, I don't know how they're going to do that.
And the other concerning is where are they going to go vote?
And it was concerning things that Axelrod said the other day: you know, the people of Asheville, the liberal voters, are going to find a way to vote.
And then I see FEMA in Asheville, but you got, you know, he was putting down the people in the rural countries.
They're probably not going to be able to find a way to vote for Trump, the conservative ones.
So that's concerning.
Well, it's concerning, but I know the issue is being addressed.
I talked to Senator Tillis.
I talked to Senator Ted Budd.
I know it's got to be addressed.
I talked to people in the Trump campaign.
I've talked to people in the RNC.
I mean, I have a lot of contacts and a lot of sources, and I talk to everybody, and they better pay attention to it.
Otherwise, they're going to turn around and lose a state that they really got to win.
We got to win North Carolina.
We got to win Georgia.
And we got to win Pennsylvania.
We got to win them all.
I mean, we just got to plan on winning them all.
That's where we are as a country.
Unless, you know, otherwise, we're going to elect the most radical person to ever run for that office.
And that scares the living hell out of me.
Absolutely.
When she, one of her so-called interviews, she recently has had made the statement that she's going to do everything she can to make sure that Trump is not president.
You know, what does that look like?
You know, is that a reason why you're not seeing the federal government helping some of these poor people to not get back on their own two feet so they can't vote?
And what else does that look like?
You know, Trump's already survived two near assassination attempts on him.
You know, not trying to be a conspiracy theorist, but it's just this is, you know, the evidence speaks for itself.
And what is, you know, what does that mean?
That I'm going to do everything I can to make sure.
Yeah.
Well, I think everybody has to look at it this way.
You've got to do your part.
And if you are in an affected area, for example, there's going to be ways.
And once we get the information for people that are impacted by this, we're going to get the information out there.
We'll put it front and center and make sure we reach as many people as possible.
I don't want to give away what I know is going to happen that will help in this effort because it was kind of told to me in confidence.
And I didn't, it was sort of an off-the-record conversation.
It wasn't on the record, so I don't feel at liberty to share it, although I like to share everything with my audience.
But it made me pretty confident that they understand the severity of this problem and they're dealing with it.
Okay?
So hang in there.
Glad to hear that other people are already addressing my concerns.
And I'm sure other people have the same concerns of their ability to be able to make it into vote, even though they're just in survival mode.
Where is our next bottle?
How do you put your life back together when everything you've lost everything?
But I know there's still people that have the American heart and they're going to try to find a way to vote.
Well, they got to.
And I'm just, I promise you it's being worked on, and I promise I'm going to do a lot of follow-up on it, okay?
Appreciate the call, Roxanne.
Linda's the singer.
Can you do Roxanne like the song?
No, I'm not a dude.
Well, try it like a girl.
No, I don't live in a woke world.
I sing like a chick.
They got dudes to sing dude songs.
Oh, my God.
Chicks and dudes.
I mean, you're like an old hippie from the 60s.
I am not like an old hippie.
I am as straight as an arrow, bro.
I'm not playing any of these games.
I love staying like the best of them.
I went to see him in concert, but turns out he's a little more like a bad person.
I'm not the biggest thing fan.
Oh my gosh, I love him.
He's like ridiculous.
And he's always to me.
Well, I don't know.
He just doesn't.
I don't know.
It just is never.
Yeah, you like brandy.
So I'm not usually, I'm not using you as my yardstick of music.
Well, can we play that?
I mean, because no, I want people to understand that you're dead wrong about the song.
Trust me, that song is a bumper.
Because we actually did some research.
It's the words of the song go, Brandy, you're a fine girl.
What a good wife you would be.
But my life, my love, and my lady is the C.
Now, the song was written by one of the lead singers in the band, and it was about an old girlfriend named Randy, but they thought Brandy sounded better.
All right, ready?
Sing it with me.
Come on.
No, again, this is your moment to talk about.
This is a great song.
You don't have the chorus.
You just got this.
This is what we got.
This is our bumper.
This is our FCC approved music that keeps us fine for you.
It's going to cost me $500,000 if I play 30 seconds.
Exactly.
Now you play it.
Linda thinks when you with the words say, Brandy, you're a fine girl.
What a good wife you would be, but my life, my love, and my lady is the C.
And she's like, no, he's talking about either whiskey or he's talking about his love or brandy.
He could be talking about brandy.
It's all about the brand.
He's talking about booze or are you talking about, and then you said, no, it has nothing to do with the woman.
He's saying that is that you think brandy is actually the sea.
And he said, no, Brandy, you're why am I bothering?
You're just doing this to piss me off.
I might be.
I might be doing it just a little bit.
You might be doing this just to piss me off.
Just a little bit.
You do a better show when you're irritated, just so you know.
Oh, my gosh.
800-941-SHOT.
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