Sean Hannity Show - Introducing Polling Plus - June 17th, Hour 3

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June 18, 2024 - Sean Hannity Show

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Introducing Polling Plus - June 17th, Hour 3

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	So while Joe Biden was hobnobbing with the coastal elitist leftists like George Cloney and Julia Roberts and Barbara Streisand and Jimmy Kimmel and Barack Obama, well, Donald Trump took a different tack.
	He was meeting with African-American groups in Detroit, in particular a pastor in Detroit, and actually praised Donald Trump.
	His name is Lorenzo Sewell, and he praised Donald Trump for coming to the hood and then went on to say, while Obama and Biden never came, listen.
	Pastor Sewell, the floor is yours.
	Please share whatever you would like to share because basically, you know, tomorrow you're going to do that anyway.
	So, you know, go ahead and share that.
	President Trump was so humbled that you would be here.
	President Obama never came to the hood.
	So soon.
	President Joe Biden, he was in the big NAACP dinner, but he never came to the hood.
	So thank you.
	I mean, this is a pretty amazing reaction.
	Harry Anton, a fake news CNN data analyst, says Donald Trump's polling among African-American voters is something we have not seen in six decades.
	Now, we discussed this with Newt Gingrich.
	Can we be watching before our very eyes a demographic switch, voting switch happen, the likes of which has not happened in decades?
	I think based on the consistency of polling that shows Donald Trump doing so dramatically better with African Americans, Hispanic Americans, and young people, I think the answer is absolutely.
	There's got to be something to it.
	Will some people return, quote, home, as they say, and go back to the Democratic Party?
	Probably.
	But you can't look at poll after poll after poll showing the same thing and just come to the conclusion this isn't real.
	Listen.
	I keep looking for this to change to go back to a historical norm.
	And it's simply put, has not yet.
	So this is the margin or Biden and Trump among black voters compared where we were at this point in 2020, compare where we are now.
	You know, at this point, look at this.
	In 2020, Joe Biden was getting 86% of the African American vote.
	Look at where it is now.
	It's 70%.
	That's a 16-point drop, John.
	And more than that, it's not just that Joe Biden is losing ground.
	It's that Donald Trump is gaining ground.
	You go from 7% single digits at this point in 2020 to now 21%.
	And again, John, I keep looking for signs that this is going to go back to normal, and I don't see it yet in the polling.
	If anything, right now, we're careening towards a historic performance for Republican presidential candidates, the likes of which we have not seen in six decades.
	Careening towards a historic performance among African-American voters, the likes of which we've not seen in six decades.
	Now, think about this.
	Donald Trump, if you go back to 2020, 7% support African-American voters and now is up to 21%.
	And this is not an anomaly.
	This is now pretty much what is the standard number, anywhere between 21.
	I've seen numbers as high as 28%.
	And it is, okay, yeah, Biden has an advantage over Donald Trump with African-American voters.
	However, but it's down 43 points from his 80-point lead among the same demographic at this point in the 2020 campaign.
	I've never seen anything like this.
	And I thought it was extraordinarily possible, you know, extraordinary when this pastor in Detroit said, well, Biden and Obama never came to the hood.
	I mean, why not?
	I used to be so frustrated and never understood why that Barack Obama and Joe Biden never dealt with the crime issue in inner city Chicago, where every weekend you could predict how many innocent people would be shot or shot and killed, and they never lifted a finger.
	I think Obama mentioned Chicago violence twice in his entire presidency.
	And then you look at Hispanic Americans.
	I've seen polls with Donald Trump and Joe Biden are tied among Hispanic Americans.
	Another dramatic shift demographically.
	Anyway, what does it all mean?
	Joining us now, Matt Towery, Insider Advantage, and Robert Cahaly with the Trafalgar Group, and both, by the way, run their own podcast about polling.
	You can find it wherever you find your local podcast.
	Gentlemen, welcome back to the program.
	Good to have you.
	Thank you.
	Thank you very much, Sean.
	Matt, let's start with you.
	And I haven't even gotten into the swing states where Donald Trump continues to show a strong lead and a consistent lead over Joe Biden and the states that matter.
	But let's talk about the demographic shift.
	How real is this?
	I think it's pretty real.
	I certainly think that we're going to see Donald Trump getting a larger percentage than he had in 2020 of the African American vote.
	One thing I want everybody to keep in mind, that vote is about 14% of the entire country.
	So sometimes we overemphasize it.
	But when you get to the swing states like Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, it's a much bigger vote, much bigger percentage of the vote.
	So it really is significant if he's cutting into the Democrats at this level.
	I will say one other thing very quickly.
	There was an article in the Wall Street Journal today about the fact that 65-year-olds and over are moving towards the Democrats.
	And so you have one group moving one way, and it tends to be sort of these people who feel like they went to college and they've got all the money they need, and they're concerned about their grandchildren, and Donald Trump, for some reason, just doesn't do anything for them.
	I think that's a group that the Republicans have to work towards and get back into their base as well, because 65 and older have been a Republican stalwart for a long time.
	So it's great he is making great progress with the African Americans, but it's not great if at the same time he's losing 65 and older, particularly white males and females.
	And Robert, also Biden is bleeding young voters, and James Carville's been losing his mind about it.
	And he's been losing his mind over the loss of Hispanic Americans as well.
	One thing that these polls are not asking enough, in my view, is about voter enthusiasm.
	I don't see a lot of enthusiasm at anybody voting for Joe Biden.
	And if you look at the measly size of the crowds at the events that he does show up at, nobody seems to really care about Joe Biden.
	I mean, he couldn't even fill half an auditorium not that long ago in Pennsylvania.
	Yeah, and he doesn't have COVID to blame it on this time.
	You know, one thing we found fascinating is that Trump from the very beginning has gotten a bigger slice of the African-American vote.
	And one of the things that, you know, kind of what we got noticed for discovering the hidden Trump voters, I don't believe for one second that number was as low as seven because that was one of the biggest groups that was kind of hiding their votes.
	And if you won't tell the polls from the phone, you're not telling a kid with a clipboard doing exit balls.
	You're just not.
	So he has always done better and he's doing even better.
	But Trump started in a better place with African-American vote than any Republican at the beginning, and he's going even higher.
	And it's because they recognize he was right.
	You know, he said, what have you got to lose?
	Some of them are asking the question.
	You know, he had quite a following before he even ran.
	So this doesn't surprise me.
	And the young people, you know, they're just looking at their lives the way they were.
	And this thing with tips is just a perfect recognition of the demographic shift going on with this party.
	This is becoming a working person's party.
	And I think it was just pure genius.
	And I think the Democratic Party, as evidenced by this weekend, with Clooney and Kimmel and Barbara Streisand and Julia Roberts and Barack Obama, it's like they're the party of coastal elites.
	Consistently, Matt, we see in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada.
	We see Donald Trump up.
	We see him up often in Michigan as well.
	Pennsylvania up by about two consistently.
	Then we got this other phenomenon that seems to have come out of nowhere, and that is the Commonwealth of Virginia, where we've had more than, what, three polls now that have showed a dead even of 48-48 heat.
	And I always have worried about Northern Virginia and what the turnout there is going to be, but certainly Glenn Young did show that there is a chance that that state could go red.
	Oh, absolutely.
	Look, there are several states right now.
	Even Minnesota is relatively close.
	I mean, these are places that you never expect to see close.
	So the more that Trump can spread the battlefield out and force the Democrats have to fight in areas they're not used to, the better off he is.
	I will say one other thing.
	When he was on his swing this weekend, he talked about the fact that he wants to eliminate the tax on tips.
	I believe that may be the strongest single thing I've heard a presidential candidate suggest in years.
	And politically, it's genius because a lot of the folks he has not been getting, I mean, let's face it, he doesn't get the elites.
	He doesn't get the too cool for school crowd.
	He doesn't get the Hollywood types.
	But what he might be getting now are service workers, people who work on an hourly basis, and they require these tips to live.
	And they're losing 21% or 23% of their money.
	Less of it goes that far as it did four years ago because of inflation.
	And now here's a guy who says, I don't want to tax your tips.
	And I don't want you harassed by the IRS over it.
	I think it's a brilliant move.
	And I think that's going to show up in the polls at some point.
	All right.
	Quick break more with our pollsters.
	Robert Gahaly and Matt Towery on the other side.
	Hey there.
	I'm Mary Catherine Hammond.
	And I'm Carol Markowitz.
	We've been in political media for a long time.
	Long enough to know that it's gotten, well, a little insane.
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	Catch new episodes of Normally every Tuesday and Thursday on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen.
	Hey there, I'm Mary Catherine Howe.
	And I'm Carol Markowitz.
	We've been in political media for a long time.
	Long enough to know that it's gotten, well, a little insane.
	That's why we started Normally, a podcast for people who are over the hysteria and just want clarity.
	We talk about the issues that actually matter to the country without panic, without yelling, and with a healthy dose of humor.
	We don't take ourselves too seriously, but we do take the truth seriously.
	So if you're into common sense, sanity, and some occasional sass, you're our kind of people.
	Catch new episodes of Normally every Tuesday and Thursday on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you listen.
	We continue with our pollsters.
	Robert Cahaley, Matt Towery are with us.
	But let's go state by state.
	You mentioned Georgia.
	Robert, if you look at Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, if you look at Wisconsin, you look at Michigan.
	If you look at Arizona, you look at Nevada and the states that we know are going to matter.
	If you want to throw in Virginia, I mean, if the election's held today, who wins?
	Well, I've kind of divided them into two groups.
	I've put Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada into a leaning Trump group.
	I'll give the caveat that Nevada's burned me before with their union and their excessive ballot harvestings.
	But I would still put those all leaning Trump to enough degree that whatever happens on a few days for election can't affect them.
	I put Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin into the other box of a little more on the bubble.
	And, you know, he only has to win if he wins.
	You'd say that those are toss-up states.
	Yeah, but he's only got to win one of them.
	Are either one of you worried about North Carolina or Georgia, Matt?
	I always worry about North Carolina a little bit, but I think it's more stable for the Republicans.
	Georgia, really, they've got their voting situation down, and the demographics are, although they're shifting against the Republicans long term right now, the polling's pretty solid.
	I want to say one other thing, Sean.
	One thing I do worry about, it's really two things.
	It's this federal agency and department mandate that Biden gave to the federal government for them to find voters and turn them out.
	We don't know who or where or what they're doing.
	And it's hard to poll.
	You don't know who's going to be voting.
	The other thing is, I know the left-wing says, oh, well, you know, non-citizens can't vote.
	It's not an issue.
	Go look at the Arizona courts decision in Arizona saying that they cannot ask the poll workers and the people who register cannot ask where someone is from for a federal election.
	They can do it for a state and local, but they can't do it for a federal.
	And the DOJ came out with a strong statement saying that they approved of that and they supported it.
	I'm not completely convinced that everybody's ready for the possibility of these two groups coming in to vote a little more than we expect.
	And just a little bit more makes it a very close race.
	Robert.
	Yeah, that also concerns me.
	And the fact is, you know, we've got people here on green cards that are eligible for driver's license.
	You know, that's the gateway document.
	Ever says motor voter, you have a driver's license, you can register to vote.
	And so until we demand voter ID everywhere and that we demand those driver's license, make it clear who's a legal resident who can drive versus a citizen, I think we're going to have this problem.
	10 days till the first debate.
	Advice for Trump, Matt Towery.
	Well, I guess this sounds trite.
	You know, be presidential.
	I would don't let them bait him into debating the whole time about, quote, his incursion on democracy, which is what they want to make that debate about.
	And of course, he's not just debating Biden.
	He's debating the moderator, too, who can't stand it.
	And the rules that they've created.
	So my advice is stay cool, stay calm, stay collected, and talk about inflation.
	Talk about the wars we're in.
	Talk about the issues that people really care about.
	I agree with that.
	Matt, I'm sorry, Robert Kahaley, last word.
	Think about a family that's facing inflation.
	Think about the father, think about the mother, and think about the child and how it's affecting them and what issues are most important to them and the real life problems they're having at the grocery store and at the gas pump and with public safety.
	I think that if you look at immigration, the Biden economy, the lack of law and order and safety and security, and this D-fund dismantled, no bail law insanity.
	I think if you look at America abdicating its leadership role as the leader of the free world, I think it's surrender in Joe Biden's case in the war against radical Islamic terrorism and his cognitive decline.
	I think I would just focus on the bread and butter basic issues that impact people's lives because every poll shows people are sick of it.
	Anyway, thank you both.
	We'll check in often in the next 140 days, 91 days until early voting starts in Pennsylvania, and then it rolls out from there to other states.
	Appreciate both of you.
	800-941 Sean is on number if you want to be a part of the program.
	This is the Sean Hannity Show.
	All right, 25 to the top of the air.
	Your call's coming up.
	800-941 Sean.
	I don't know what's going on with the left in this country.
	They're all like, first of all, they think an awful lot of themselves.
	And, you know, this hyper-paranoia.
	If Donald Trump becomes president again, I'm probably going to be put in a camp.
	Conspiracy theorist extraordinaire Rachel Maddow.
	And then AOC, if Trump is elected, I think I'm going to be put in jail.
	I'm like, okay.
	I don't even think Trump knows who Rachel Maddow is, if you want my best guess.
	And AOC, no, I don't think Trump's goal is to put AOC in jail.
	Now you got liberal Joe Scarborough.
	Now he's all paranoid as well.
	Listen.
	Former Trump White House Communications Director Alyssa Farah Griffins saying former President Trump often discussed executing people at White House meetings.
	But here we have a guy who's attorney general, a lawyer.
	I just tell you, lawyers, you know, I'm not even a good lawyer, but you get lawyers in conversations.
	They remember things.
	They have the dictaphone going.
	They've got, you know, they've got it going in their heads.
	And you hear something like that, you are trained for your mind to set that apart.
	Okay, the President of the United States just said we should execute staffers for leaking.
	I mean, what Barr says is so laughable.
	And what Alyssa said is so chilling that we seriously.
	We actually have Republicans so scary.
	We actually have Republicans that are going to go out and endorse a guy who called for the execution of fellow staff members and then claims he doesn't remember it.
	I don't even know where to begin because it is so over the top insane.
	But it is, you know, your typical left-wing media today.
	That's what they are.
	You now have the California Senate approving a ban on schools, actually even notifying parents of their child's pronoun change if a child wants to do that.
	I mean, it's about as sick as it could be.
	I mean, that's what Jilliet Michaels was kind of saying is like, okay, I have to leave California, and I'm not exactly a conservative Republican, but this place has gone nuts.
	We continue to watch this Caitlin Clark drama unfold as, you know, both star rookies Angel Reese and Caitlin Clark, they were playing on Sunday, the second time the teams have faced off this season.
	And then you watch Angel Reese striking Caitlin Clark in the head during a layup attempt.
	I mean, it's just never ending.
	I mean, what message are they trying to send to Caitlin Clark?
	And meanwhile, Caitlin Clark is one of the best things that would have ever happened to a league that's expected to lose $50 million this year.
	She's drawing people into stadiums because they want to watch her play.
	He's one of the greatest shooters I've ever seen in my lifetime.
	If that league became profitable, guess what?
	Everybody that plays in that league would benefit.
	I mean, the fact that she makes less than $100,000 a year for three years in an option year, still under $100,000, it just tells you everything you need to know about how not profitable the WNBA is.
	And I understand she gets clobbered in the head, a flagrant foul by Angel Reese.
	And, you know, she wasn't going to give her arch rival the satisfaction of letting her know that she may be bothered by it.
	And she just said, you know what?
	I'm just, I'm just trying to make the free throws.
	And it was a flagrant foul.
	It's pretty unreal.
	There is, if you're worried about your kids online, I urge you to pay attention to this.
	There is a popular, apparently there's like pre-teen girls, Instagram followers, and a Midwest mom encouraged her pre-teen daughter to launch an Instagram account to fulfill a dream of becoming an online influencer.
	There was a report out today.
	I'm not sure if you saw this, Linda, 92% of the followers, in this case, this girl's followers, she's pre-teen, are creepy grown men.
	I mean, how scary is that?
	That is really creepy.
	Anyway, but, you know, welcome to the world of.
	What's that?
	I will tell you honestly that these people who have their kids online, who let their kids be online, you know, there's a difference between being overbearing and then like actually caring.
	And I think that there's just not enough parents involved in what's happening online.
	It's a very dangerous place.
	It's an alternate reality.
	And there's a lot of horrible things happening online.
	There are pictures being exchanged.
	There are messages being sent.
	There are kids that are being literally assaulted every single day by kids their own age and then disgusting pedophiles because pedophilia is something we don't discuss in this country because it makes us uncomfortable.
	And we can't get out of our own way to protect our kids because we're really just not good at taking care of those who need us most in our country, like the elderly and the kids.
	But I'm telling you right now, like these, these kids today are so oversexualized.
	The crap that they put in these cartoons, I mean, we got four kids.
	We watch everything they do.
	We don't allow TikTok.
	We don't allow Facebook.
	They have something called Snapchat, but we monitor even that.
	You know, Liam has a lot of people.
	That's hard to monitor because it evaporates.
	It evaporates in 24 hours.
	But at the end of the day, it evaporates faster than that.
	No, you can do it for 24 hours.
	You can go in and you can make it for 24 hours.
	Which gives you an opportunity to monitor your kids.
	Jerry Seinfeld laid into an anti-Israel heckler during a stand-up show in Australia Sunday night and said, it's a comedy show, you moron.
	I felt like getting up and cheering when I read that.
	Linda, you're going to love this.
	You know, this guy, Dr. Robert Redfield, we've talked about as it relates to the coronavirus issue.
	He's the director of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, testifying during a Senate hearing.
	But anyway, long story short, well, former director, he's talking about this bird flu and says that this will cause the next pandemic.
	It's not a question of if, it's more a question of when we will have a bird flu epidemic.
	And by the way, the former CDC director said when it enters humans, it has a significant mortality, probably somewhere between 25 and 50% mortality.
	So it's going to be quite complicated.
	And what really scared me is that he went on to report, as it relates to this particular bird flu, that it's already been studied in labs and that they know exactly what path that this bird flu would have to take to make human-to-human transmission possible.
	They know the exact path because it's already been studied that way.
	I mean, how scary is that?
	It's not scary at all.
	Nothing he says.
	It's only scary if it happens.
	Yeah, it's only scary if it happens if we allow it to happen.
	And we as a people have to fight back and say it cannot happen.
	How do you fight back if some if they're allowed to mess with these viruses?
	They're not.
	It's illegal.
	No, they are.
	Rand Paul was on this program and said it is going on right now in this country.
	That's right.
	And it's illegal.
	There's a lot of things happening in this country that are illegal.
	The problem is that the American people now have to stand up and realize that when they tell you to stand six feet apart and it's based on nothing or to wear a mask and it's based on nothing or take an undocumented, unveted vaccine and put it in your body and all of the side causes that are coming.
	I mean, look at Japan last week saying all of the things that they're apologizing for now.
	Fauci can't give the truth.
	Rand Paul's going back on the Senate floor tomorrow and have another committee hearing to hold these guys accountable.
	We got to wake up.
	Skip is in North Carolina.
	Skip, you're on the Sean Hannity show.
	Hi.
	Well, Sean, thank you for taking our call.
	I'm sitting here with my wife in our workshop in Carolina, and we're Trump supporters, and there's two subjects I'd like to discuss with you, one of which is education, and the other one is going to be the debate coming up.
	The debate part.
	We watch on Sunday the moderators and the talk shows, Meet the Press and the other ones, et cetera.
	And the Republicans are getting better.
	But the moderators are sticking to their guns and asking about Trump, asking about January 6th.
	And now the Republicans are finally determining that they're not being asked to be interviewed.
	They're being asked to debate.
	These moderators interrupt constantly Republicans, but they don't Democrats.
	And guys like Cotton, Scott, Vance, they're finally holding up and figuring out what's going on because the moderators only ask for January 6th, Trump going to prison.
	They never.
	Listen, all this debate, Fake Jake and Dana Bash, it's going to be three-on-one.
	That's how this debate is going to go down.
	Trump knows it.
	I know it.
	You know it.
	The American people will know it.
	And it's going to be how he handles it.
	And probably like everything else that they try to do to this guy, it's going to backfire.
	And it's not going to hurt him.
	That's my guess.
	And I think he'll go in prepared.
	And I think he'll make his points.
	And I don't think he's going to fall for the bait of Joe Biden trying to get him all pissed off.
	And I would anticipate that you're going to see a very hyper-caffeinated Joe Biden again.
	I don't think there's any way they can risk not sending him in hypercaffeinated like he was during the State of the Union.
	Well, I couldn't agree with you more.
	And I think Trump's going to need to deflect because judging by the last two or three weeks on the Sunday shows, O. Jake is going to ask the fake questions.
	And if Trump deflects from it, like politicians do so well, and just go to the facts of the border, the energy prices, the food prices, the cost of bacon.
	And I also want to add this to it.
	Does everybody remember a little history here?
	Does everybody remember Donna Braswell?
	During the Hillary Clinton debate, she funneled and leaked questions directly to Hillary Clinton before the debate.
	And personally, I think Trump should ask the moderators and Biden, do you know any of the questions in advance or any of your people have any idea what the questions are?
	Because that's a possibility.
	Well, it's happened before.
	We know that with CNN.
	And do I think it's a possibility?
	Of course.
	Do I think they'd be better and more clever at hiding at this time?
	Yeah, I do.
	But, you know, we'll find out.
	Anyway, appreciate the call, Skip.
	800-941-Sean is our number if you want to be a part of the program.
	Back to our phones we go.
	Sam in Arkansas.
	Sam the man, how are you?
	Sorry, Sean.
	Hey, I just wanted to touch on the Supreme Court ruling over the abortion drug that came out last week.
	You had said on multiple occasions that essentially that ruling made it legal in all 50 states.
	I looked at that, basically I did a case brief on it, and the only thing that the court said was that the plaintiffs had no standing to sue and that the drug could be used.
	The reality is, is that it's like any other abortion method.
	As long as it's legal in that state to have an abortion, that drug can be used.
	That's it.
	My understanding is that effectively it bans that everybody has the right for now to use that if it happens.
	It is 60-plus% of abortions, and it basically would cover all first-time abortions, and it would be readily available for any person that wanted it.
	And it kind of takes that issue away from Democrats that have wanted to demagogue the issue of abortion during this campaign.
	And I think the more people understand that that pill will be readily available for anybody that wants it, I think people understand that it's not going to be a problem.
	I think they have less of an opportunity to demagogue it.
	And then I would argue the next thing is it then raises the important extremist question that Democrats need to be asked, and that is, do you support any restrictions on late-term abortions in months seven, eight, and nine?
	And I think Democrats need to be asked that question and be forced to answer that question.
	I agree with all of that.
	And I think, but I think what's, you know, the important distinction is like the Attorney General of Arkansas sent out a cease and desist letter to two different companies who were advertising the drug and its availability in Arkansas.
	You sent a cease and assist letter and one of, I haven't heard about the other, but one of the companies immediately responded with, you know, basically I Capitan, like, you know, we don't want to be sued over this because it is not legal to use that in Arkansas.
	And if they had, if they, if they had sent the drug.
	Is this pre or post Supreme Court decision?
	Well, the cease and desist letter was pretty the my understanding.
	It came out in the news or at least I heard the news Friday that the I'm only on the because of the constraints of time.
	I can tell you right now that that pill will be available to any woman that wants it with which ostensibly makes abortion in the first trimester using that method legal for every woman in the country.
	Because there will be.
	want smart political talk without the meltdowns we got you i'm carol markowitz and i'm mary catherine ham we've been around the block in media and we're doing things differently normally is about real conversations thoughtful try to be funny grounded and no panic we'll keep you informed and entertained without ruining your day join us every tuesday and thursday normally on the iHeartRadio app,

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