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June 18, 2024 - Sean Hannity Show
33:44
Introducing Polling Plus - June 17th, Hour 3
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So while Joe Biden was hobnobbing with the you know coastal elitist leftists like George Cloney and Julia Roberts and Barbara Streisand and Jimmy Kimmel and Barack Obama, uh, well, Donald Trump uh took a different tack.
He was meeting with African American groups in Detroit, in particular a pastor in Detroit, and actually praised Donald Trump.
His name is Lorenzo Sewell, and he praised Donald Trump for coming to the hood, and then went on to say, while Obama and Biden never came, listen.
The floor is yours.
We share whatever you might share because you know, tomorrow you're gonna do that anyway.
So, you know, go ahead and share how that you would be here.
President Obama never came to the hood.
So Biden, he was in the big NAACP dinner, but he never came to the hood.
I mean, this is a pretty amazing reaction.
Um Harry Anton, a fake news CNN data analyst, says Trump Donald Trump's polling among African American voters is something we have not seen in six decades.
Now, we discussed this with Newt Gingrich.
Can we be watching before our very eyes a demographic switch, voting switch happen, the likes of which is not happened in decades.
I think based on the consistency of polling that shows Donald Trump doing so dramatically better with African Americans, Hispanic Americans, and young people.
I think the answer is absolutely.
There's got to be something to it.
Will some people return, quote, home, as they say, and go back to the Democratic Party?
Probably.
But it you you can't look at poll after poll after poll showing the same thing and just come to the conclusion this isn't real.
Listen.
I keep looking for this to change to go back to a historical norm, and it simply put has not yet.
So this is the margin or Biden and Trump among black voters compared where we were at this point in 2020, compare where we are now.
You know, at this point, look at this.
In 2020, Joe Biden was getting 86% of the African American vote.
Look at where it is now.
It's 70%.
That's a 16-point drop, John.
And more than that, it's not just that Joe Biden is losing ground, it's that Donald Trump is gaining ground.
You go from 7% single digits at this point in 2020 to now 21%.
And again, John, I keep looking for signs that this is gonna go back to normal, and I don't see it yet in the polling.
anything right now we're careening towards a historic performance for a republican presidential candidate the likes of which we have not seen in six decades careening towards a historic performance among african-american voters the likes of which we've not seen in six decades Now think about this.
Donald Trump, if you go back to 2020, 7% support, African American voters, and now is up to 21%.
And and this is not an anomaly.
This is now pretty much what is is the standard number, anywhere between 21.
I've seen numbers as high as 28%.
And it is okay, yeah.
Biden has an advantage over Donald Trump with African American voters.
Uh, however, but it's down 43 points from his 80-point lead among the same demographic at this point in the 2020 campaign.
I I've never seen anything like this.
And I thought it was extraordinarily possible uh, you know uh extraordinary when this pastor in Detroit said, Well, Biden and Obama never came to the hood.
I mean, why not?
I used to I used to be so frustrated and never understood why that Barack Obama and Joe Biden never dealt with the crime issue in inner city Chicago, where every weekend you could predict how many, you know, innocent people would be shot and or shot and killed, and they never lifted a finger.
They I think Obama mentioned Chicago violence twice in his entire presidency.
And then you look at Hispanic Americans.
I've seen polls with Donald Trump and Joe Biden are tied among Hispanic Americans.
Another dramatic shift demographically.
Anyway, what does it all mean?
Joining us now, uh Matt Towery, Insider Advantage, and Robert Cahaley, uh, with the Trafalgar group, and both, by the way, run their own podcast about polling.
Uh you can find it wherever you find your local podcast.
Uh gentlemen, welcome back to the program.
Good to have you.
Thank you.
Great to be here, Sean.
Matt, let's start with you.
Uh, and I haven't even gotten into the swing states where Donald Trump continues to show a strong lead and a consistent lead over Joe Biden and and the states that matter.
Uh but let's talk about the demographic shift.
How real is this?
Uh, I think it's pretty real.
I I certainly think that we're going to see uh Donald Trump getting uh larger percentage than he had in 2020 of the African American vote.
Uh one thing I want everybody to keep in mind, that vote is about 14% of the entire country.
So sometimes we overemphasize it, but when you get to the swing states like Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, it's a much bigger vote at the much bigger percentage of the vote.
So it really is significant if he's cutting into the Democrats at this level.
I will say one other thing very quickly.
There was an article in the Wall Street Journal today about the fact that 65-year-old and over are moving towards the Democrats.
And so you have one group moving one way, and I I it tends to be sort of these people who feel like they went to college and they they've got all the money they need, and they they're concerned about their grandchildren, and and Donald Trump for some reason just doesn't do anything for them.
I think that's a group that the Republicans have to work towards and get back into their base as well, because 65 and older have been a Republican uh stalwart for a long time.
So it's great he is making great progress with the African Americans, but it's not great if at the same time he's losing 65 and older, uh, particularly white uh males and females.
And Robert also Biden is bleeding young voters, and James Carville's been losing his mind about it, and and he's been losing his mind over the loss of Hispanic uh Americans as well.
Uh one thing that these polls are not asking enough in my view is about voter enthusiasm.
I don't see a lot of enthusiasm at at anybody voting for Joe Biden.
And if you look at you know the the measly size of the crowds at the events that he does show up at, uh nobody nobody seems to really care about Joe Biden.
I mean, he couldn't even fill half an auditorium not that long ago in Pennsylvania.
Yeah, and he didn't have COVID to blame them this time.
I know one point w we we found fascinating is that Trump from the very beginning has gotten a biggest life of the African American vote.
And one of the things that, you know, kind of what we got noticed for discovering the hidden Trump voters.
Uh I don't believe for one second that number was as low as seven.
Uh, because they were that was one of the biggest groups that was kind of hiding their vote.
And if you won't tell the polls on the sign, you're not telling a kid with a clipboard doing exit polls.
You're just not.
So he has always done better, and he's doing even better.
But Trump started at a better place with African American vote than any Republican at the beginning, and he's going even higher, and it's because they recognize he was right.
Uh, you know, he said, What have you got to lose?
Some of them asked him the question.
You know, he had quite a following before he even ran.
So this doesn't surprise me.
And the young people, you know, they're they're just looking at their lives the way they were.
And this thing with tipped is just a perfect recognition of the demographic shift going on with this party.
This is becoming a working person's party.
And I think it was just pure genius.
And I think the Democratic Party is evidenced by this weekend with Clooney and Kimmel and Barbara Streisand and Julia Roberts and Barack Obama.
It's like they're the party of coastal elites.
Consistently, Matt, we see in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada.
We see Donald Trump up.
We see him up often in Michigan as well.
Pennsylvania up by about two consistently.
Then we got this other phenomenon that seems to have come out of nowhere, and that is the Commonwealth of Virginia, where we've had more than what, three polls now that have showed a dead even of 48-48 heat.
And I always have worried about Northern Virginia and what the turnout there is going to be.
But But certainly Glenn Youncan did show that it there is a chance that that state could go red.
Oh, absolutely.
There are several states right now.
Even Minnesota is relatively close.
I mean, that these are places that you never expect to see close.
So the more that Trump can spread the battlefield out and force the Democrats have to fight in areas they're not used to, the better off he is.
I will say one other thing.
When he was uh on his uh swing this weekend, he talked about the fact that he wants to eliminate the tax on tips.
I believe that may be the strongest single thing I've heard a presidential candidate suggest in years.
And politically, it's genius because a lot of the folks he has not been getting, I mean let's face it, he doesn't get the elites, he doesn't get the too cool for school crowd, he doesn't get the Hollywood types.
But what he might be getting now are service workers, people who who work on an hourly basis and they require these tips to live, and they're losing 21% or 23% of their of their money that uh uh less of it goes that that far as it did uh four years ago because of inflation.
And now here's a guy who says, I don't want to tax your tips, and I don't want you harassed by the IRS over it.
I think it's a brilliant move, and I think that's gonna show up in the polls at some point.
All right, quick break more with our pollsters.
Robert Kahaley and Matt Tower on the other side.
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Hey there.
I'm Mary Catherine Hamm.
And I'm Carol Markowitz.
We've been in political media for a long time.
Long enough to know that it's gotten, well, a little insane.
That's why we started normally a podcast for people who are over the hysteria and just want clarity.
We talk about the issues that actually matter to the country without panic, without yelling, and with a healthy dose of humor.
We don't take ourselves too seriously, but we do take the truth seriously.
So if you're into common sense, sanity, and some occasional sass.
You're our kind of people.
Catch new episodes of Normally every Tuesday and Thursday on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen.
We continue with our pollsters.
Robert Cahaley, Matt Towery are with us.
But let's go state by state.
You mentioned Georgia, Robert.
If you look at Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania.
If you look at Wisconsin, you look at Michigan.
If you look at Arizona, you look at Nevada, um, and and the states that we know are going to matter.
If you want to throw in Virginia, I mean, if the election's held today, who wins?
Well, I've kind of divide them into two groups.
I've put uh Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada into a leaning Trump group.
Uh I'll give the caveat that Nevada's burned me before uh with their uh union and their excessive uh ballot harvest things, but I was still put those all leaning from uh to enough degree that whatever happens on a few days for election can't affect them.
I put Pennsylvania, um Michigan, and um Wisconsin into the other box of a little more on the bubble.
And you know, he only has to win if he wins the You'd say that those are toss-up states.
Yeah.
But he's only got to win one of them.
Are either one of you worried about North Carolina or Georgia, Matt?
Uh I always worry about North Carolina a little bit, but I think it's more stable for the Republicans.
Georgia, I'm I really they've got their voting uh situation down and the demographics are although they're shifting against the Republicans long term.
Right now, the polling's pretty solid.
I want to say one other thing, Sean.
One thing I do worry about, it's really two things.
It's this federal agency and department mandate that Biden gave to the federal government for them to find voters and turn them out.
We don't know who or where or what they're doing, and it's hard to poll if you don't know who's going to be voting.
The other thing is, uh, I know it's uh the the left wing says, oh, well, you know, non citizens can't vote, it's not an issue.
Go look at the Arizona court's decision in Arizona saying that they cannot ask the poll workers or the people who register, cannot ask where someone is from for a federal election.
They can do it for a state and local, but they can't do it for a federal.
And the and the uh DOJ came out with a strong statement saying that they approved of that and they supported it.
I'm not completely convinced that um everybody's ready for the possibility of these two groups coming in to vote a little more than we expect, and just a little bit more makes it a very close race.
Robert.
Yeah, that also concerns me.
And the fact is, you know, we've got people here on green cards that are eligible for driver's license.
You know, that that's the gateway document.
Ever since motor voter, you have a driver's license, you can register to vote.
And so until we we demand voter ID everywhere, and we demand those driver's license, make it clear who's a legal resident who can drive versus a citizen, I think we're gonna have this problem.
Ten days till the first debate, advice for Trump, Matt Towery.
Well, I guess it sounds trite, you know, be presidential.
I I would don't let them bait him into debating the whole time about quote his incursion uh on democracy, which is what they want to make that uh debate about.
And of course, he's not just debating Biden, he's debating the moderator, too, who can't stand him, and and the rules that they've created.
So my advice is stay cool, stay calm, stay collected, and talk about inflation, talk about uh the wars we're in, talk about the issues that people really care about.
I agree with uh Matt, uh, I'm sorry, uh Robert Haley, last word.
Having think about a family that is facing inflation.
Think about the father, think about the mother, and think about the child and w how it's affecting them and what issues are most important to them, and the real life problems they're having at the grocery store and the gas pump and republic safety.
I think that if you look at immigration, the Biden economy, the lack of law and order and safety and security, and this the defund dismantled no bail law insanity.
I think if you look at the America abdicating its its leadership role as the the leader of the free world, I think it's surrender in Joe Biden's case in the war against radical Islamic terrorism uh and his cognitive decline.
I think I would just focus on on the bread and butter basic issues that impact people's lives because every poll shows people are sick of it.
Um anyway, thank you both.
We'll check in often in the next hundred and forty days, 91 days until early voting starts in Pennsylvania, and then it rolls out from there to other states.
Uh appreciate both of you.
800, 941 Sean is on number if you want to be a part of the program.
This this is a Sean Hannity show.
All right, 25 to the top of the hour.
Your call's coming up.
800, 941 Sean.
I don't know what's going on with the left in this country.
They're all like, first of all, they think an awful lot of themselves, and you know, the this hyper paranoia.
Uh if Donald Trump becomes president again, I'm probably going to be put in a camp.
Conspiracy theorist, extraordinaire Rachel Maddow.
And then AOC.
If Trump is elected, I think I'm going to be put in jail.
I'm like, okay.
Um I I don't even think Trump knows who Rachel Maddow is.
If you want my my best guess and AOC, no, I don't think Trump's goal is to put AOC in jail.
Uh now you got liberal Joe uh Scarborough.
Now he's all paranoid as well.
Listen.
Former Trump White House Communications Director Alyssa Farrara Griffins uh saying former President Trump often discussed executing people at White House meetings.
But here we have a guy who's attorney general, a lawyer.
I just tell you, lawyers, I you know, I'm not even a good lawyer, but you get lawyers in conversations, they remember things.
They have the dictaphone going in the they've got they've got, you know, they've got it going in their heads.
And you hear something like that, you are trained for your mind to set that apart.
Okay, the president of the United States just said we should execute staffers for leaking.
Yeah.
I mean, what Barr says is is so laughable.
And what Lisa said is so um so chilling that we actually have Republicans so scary.
We actually have Republicans that are going to go out and endorse a guy who called for the execution of fellow staff members, and then claims he doesn't remember it.
Uh I don't even know where to begin because it is it is so over the top insane.
But it is, you know, your typical left-wing media today.
That's where they are.
You now have the California Senate approving a ban on schools, actually even notifying parents of their child's pronoun change if a child wants to do that.
I mean, it's it's it's about as sick as it can be.
I mean, that's what Jillian Michaels was kind of saying is like, okay, I have to leave California, and I'm not exactly a conservative Republican, but this place has gone nuts.
Um we continue to watch this Caitlin Clark drama unfold uh as you know, both star rookies and uh uh Angel Reese and Caitlin Clark, they were playing on Sunday, the second time the teams have faced off this season, and then you watch Angel Reese striking Caitlin Clark in the head during a layup attempt.
I mean, it just never ending.
I mean, what message are they trying to send to Caitlin Clark?
And meanwhile, Caitlin Clark is one of the best things that would have ever happened to a league that's expected to lose 50 million dollars this year.
She's drawing people into stadiums because they want to watch her play.
Is one of the greatest shooters I've ever seen in my lifetime.
If that league became profitable, guess what?
Everybody that plays in that league would benefit.
I mean, the fact that she makes less than a hundred thousand dollars a year for three years and an option year, still under a hundred thousand dollars, it just tells you everything you need to know about how not profitable the WMBA is.
And I understand she gets clobbered in the head, a flagrant foul by Angel Reese.
And, you know, she wasn't gonna give her arch rival the satisfaction of letting her know that she may be bothered by it.
And she just said, you know what?
I'm just I'm just trying to make the the free throws, and it was a flagrant foul.
It's it's pretty unreal.
Um there is if you if you're worried about your kids online, I urge you to pay attention to this.
There is a popular apparently there's like pre-teen girls' Instagram followers, and a Midwest mom encouraged her preteen daughter to launch an Instagram account to fulfill a dream of becoming an online influencer.
There was a report out today.
I'm not sure if you saw this, Linda.
92% of the followers, in this case, this girl's followers, she's preteen, are creepy grown men.
I mean, how scary is that?
That is really creepy.
Anyway, but you know, welcome to the world of what's that?
I will tell you honestly that these people who have their kids online who let their kids be online, you know, there's a difference between being overbearing and then like actually caring.
Uh and I think that there's just not enough parents involved in what's happening online.
It's it's a very dangerous place.
It's an alternate reality, and there's a lot of horrible things happening online.
There are pictures being exchanged, there are messages being sent.
There are kids that are being literally assaulted every single day by kids their own age and then discussing pedophiles because pedophilia is something we don't discuss in this country because it makes us uncomfortable and we can't get out of our own way to protect our kids because we're really just not good at taking care of those who need us most in our country, like the elderly and the kids.
But I'm telling you right now, like these these kids today are so oversexualized.
The crap that they put in these cartoons.
I mean, we got four kids, we watch everything they do.
We don't allow TikTok, we don't allow Facebook.
They have something called Snapchat.
But we monitor even that.
You know, Liam has been a little bit more than a lot of things.
That's hard to monitor because it it evaporates in 24 hours.
But at the end of the day, it evaporates faster than that.
No, you can do it for 24 hours.
You can go in and you can you can make it for 24 hours.
Which gives you an opportunity to monitor your kids.
Jerry Seinfeld uh laid into an anti-Israel heckler during a stand-up show in Australia Sunday night and said it's a comedy show, you moron.
I felt like getting up and cheering when I read that.
Uh Linda, you're gonna love this.
You know this guy, Dr. Robert Redfield, we've talked about as it relates to the coronavirus issue.
He's the director of the Center for Disease Control and Con Prevention, testifying during a Senate hearing.
Uh but anyway, long story short, well, former director, um, he's talking about this bird flu and says that this will cause the next pandemic.
It's not a question of if, it's more a question of when we will have a bird flu epidemic.
And by the way, the former CDC director said when it enters humans, it has a significant mortality, probably somewhere between twenty-five and fifty percent mortality.
So it's gonna be quite complicated.
And what really scared me is that he went on to report as it relates to the the this particular bird flu that it's already been studied in in labs, and that they know exactly what what path that this uh that that bird flu would have to take to make human to human transmission possible.
They know the exact path because it's already been studied that way.
I mean, that is how scary is that.
It's not scary at all.
Nothing he says.
It's scary if it happens.
Yeah, it's only scary if it happens if we allow it to happen.
And we as a people have to fight back and say it can't be.
If if some if they're allowed to mess with these viruses, they're not.
It's illegal.
No, they are.
It's it's did you Rand Paul was on this program and says it is going on right now in this country.
That's right, and it's illegal.
There's a lot of things happening in this country that are illegal.
The problem is that the American people now have to stand up and realize that when they tell you to stand six feet apart and it's based on nothing, or to wear a mask and it's based on nothing, or take an undocumented, unvetted vaccine and put it in your body and all of the side causes that are coming.
I mean, look at Japan last week saying all of the things that they're apologizing for now.
Fauci can't give the truth.
Rand Paul's going back on the Senate floor tomorrow and having another committee hearing to hold these guys accountable.
We gotta wake up.
Uh Skip is in North Carolina.
Skip, you're on the Sean Hannity show.
Hi.
Well, Sean, thank you for taking our call.
I'm sitting here with my wife in our workshop in Carolina, and we're Trump supporters, and there's two subjects I'd like to discuss with you.
One of which is education, and the other one is going to be the debate coming up.
Um the debate part.
We watch on Sunday the moderators on the talk shows, meet the press and the other ones, etc.
And the Republicans are getting better.
But the moderators are sticking to their guns and asking about Trump, asking about January 6.
And now the Republicans are finally determining that they're not being asked to be interviewed.
They're being asked to debate.
These moderators interrupt constantly, Republicans, but they don't Democrats.
And guys like Cotton, uh Scott, Bance.
they're finally holding up and figuring out what's going on because the moderators only ask for January 6th, Trump going to prison.
They never listen, all this debate, fake Jake and Dana Bash are it's gonna be three on one.
That's how this debate is gonna go down.
Trump knows it, I know it, you know it, the American pe people will know it, and it's it's gonna be how he handles it.
And probably like everything else that they tr try to do to this guy, uh it's gonna backfire.
And it's not gonna hurt him.
That's my guess.
And I think he'll go in prepared, and I think he'll make his points, and I don't think he's gonna fall for the bait of Joe Biden trying to get him all pissed off.
And I would anticipate that you're gonna see a very hyper caffeinated Joe Biden again.
I don't think there's any way they can risk not sending him in hyper caffeinated like he was during the State of the Union.
Well, I I couldn't agree with you more, and I think Trump's gonna need to deflect because judging by the last two or three weeks on the Sunday shows, O Jake is gonna ask the fake questions, and if Trump deflects from it like politicians do so well, and just go to the facts of the border, the energy crisis, the food prices, the cost of bacon.
And I also want to add this to it.
Does everybody remember a little history here?
Does everybody remember Donna Braswell during the Hillary Clinton debate, she funneled and leaked questions directly to Hillary Clinton before the debate.
And personally, I think Trump should ask the moderators and Biden, do you know any of the questions in advance or any of your people have any idea what the questions are?
Because that's a possibility.
Well, it's happened before.
We know that with CNN, and uh do I think it's a possibility?
Of course.
Do I think they'd be better and more clever at hiding it this time?
Yeah, I do.
But you know, we'll find out.
Uh anyway, appreciate the call, Skip.
800-941 Shauna's on number if you want to be a part of the program.
Uh back to our phones we go, Sam in Arkansas, Sam the man, how are you?
Sorry, Sean.
Hey, um, I just wanted to touch on the Supreme Court ruling over uh the abortion drug uh that came out last week.
Um you had said on multiple occasions that essentially that ruling made it legal in all fifty states.
Um I looked at that uh uh basically I did a case brief on it, and the only thing that the the court said was that uh the plaintiffs had no standing to sue and that the drug could be used.
The reality is is that it's like any other abortion method.
As long as it's legal in that state to have an abortion, that drug can be used.
That's it.
My my understanding is that effectively it it is it bans uh that pe that everybody has the right for now uh to use that if it happens.
It is sixty plus percent of abortions, and it basically would cover all first-time abortions, and it would be readily available for any person that wanted it, and it kind of takes that issue away from Democrats that have wanted to demagogue the issue of abortion uh during this campaign, and I think the more people understand that that that pill will be readily available for anybody that wants it, um I I think people understand that it's not gonna be a problem.
I think they have less of an opportunity to demagogue it, and then I would argue the next thing is it then it then raises the important extremist question that Democrats need to be asked, and that is do you support any restrictions on late term abortions in months seven, eight, and nine?
And I think Democrats need to be asked that question and be forced to answer that question.
I agree with all of that, and I think um but I think what's you know, the the important distinction is like the Attorney General of Arkansas um sent out a cease and assist letter to two different companies who are advertising the drug um and its availability in Arkansas,
and he sent a cease and assist letter, and and one of I haven't heard about the other, but one of the companies immediately responded with, you know, basically I Capitan, like, you know, we don't want to be sued over this uh because it is not legal to use that in Arkansas.
And if they had um if they if they had sent the drug is this pre or post Supreme Court decision.
Well, the season assist letter was pre.
The um my understanding it came out in the news, or at least I heard the news Friday, that um the I probab I'm only on the because of the constraints of time.
I can tell you right now that that pill will be available to any woman that wants it, with which ostensibly makes abortion in the first trimester using that method legal for every woman in the country.
Because there will be very, very simple, easy access of that pill for anybody that wants it.
That that that is the net effect of it, my mind.
Um, and I think it takes away an issue that the Democrats hope to demagogue.
Anyway, I have to run only because of time.
That's gonna wrap things up for today.
Hannity tonight, nine Eastern on the Fox News channel, one hundred and forty days until election day, 91 days early voting starts, and ten days out of the first presidential debate, Laura Trump, Newt Gingrich, Lindsay Graham, Doug Bergum, whose name is mentioned as a possible VP choice, Joe Concha, Charles Payne, 9 Eastern, set you D VR, Monday through Friday, Hannity on Fox News.
We'll see you tonight back here tomorrow.
Thank you for making this show possible.
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Now I'm Carol Markowitz.
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We've been around the block in media and we're doing things differently.
Normally is about real conversations, thoughtful, try to be funny, grounded, and no panic.
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