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Feb. 27, 2024 - Sean Hannity Show
31:04
Pollsters on Trump - February 26th, Hour 3
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News Roundup and Information Overload.
All right, News Roundup and Information Overload Hour.
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All right, as we now look to the future, the remaining primary calendar, it's pretty simple.
We have Michigan, that is both parties.
Then the, you know, of course, the Michigan GOP Convention, no delegates awarded.
Idaho is coming up.
Washington's coming up.
And North Dakota is coming up very quickly.
And then March 5th, it's Super Tuesday.
And you've got all these states.
Anyway, let's go back to Saturday.
Donald Trump really taking on Miki Haley and just, it was pretty much a wipeout.
Many pollsters nailed it.
We'll check in with our pollsters because they all nailed it.
But anyway, here is Donald Trump saying, I've never seen a Republican Party as unified as it is now.
And then Nikki Haley vowing to stay in the race and saying that Donald Trump's comments drive people away.
Well, she lost in her home state by 21.
Anyway, listen.
We're going to straighten things out.
The border is the worst it's ever been.
You know, in 2016, we won.
We had a bad border.
I talked about the border a lot, talked about it a lot.
And so we're going to fix it.
We're going to fix it.
We fixed it very quickly.
And in 2020, we couldn't talk about it, although we did get millions of more votes the second time.
But now there's a spirit that I have never seen.
We ran two great races, but it's never been, ever, there's never been a spirit like this.
And I just want to say that I have never seen the Republican Party so unified as it is right now.
Never been lately.
Today in South Carolina, we're getting around 40% of the vote.
That's about what we got in New Hampshire, too.
I'm going to count it.
I know 40% is not 50%.
But I also know 40% is not some tiny group.
There are huge numbers of voters in our Republican primaries who are saying they want an alternative.
I said earlier this week that no matter what happens in South Carolina, I would continue to run for president.
I'm a woman of my word.
I'm not giving up this fight when a majority of Americans disapprove of both Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
Anyway, joining us now, pollster John McLaughlin, McLaughlin and Associates, Matt Towery, Insider Advantage, Robert Cahaley, Trafalgar Group.
Now, my understanding is I think all of you, your final polls going into South Carolina, weren't you all within a point or a point or two?
John, where was everybody?
Well, my polls weren't public.
Their polls were.
But my polls were for President Trump, his campaign polls.
And that morning of the South Carolina primary, I told them before his CPAC speech we were going to win by around 20 points.
And that would be a landslide considering that 20% of all the people coming into the Republican primary had a past history of voting in Democratic primaries and were being recruited by the Hay-Haley people.
Plus 20% were favorable to Joe Biden, and they were voting 80 to 6 for Haley.
So Haley's 40% was inflated by these Democrats coming in to try to embarrass President Trump, and it didn't work.
He won.
He won huge going away, 60-40 in her home state where they had badly outspent us, and they were trying to bring in, like they did in New Hampshire.
They tried to bring in Democratic primary voters into the Republican primary.
And it didn't work.
And now, you know, Haley has no place to go.
President Trump was brilliant that night because he gave a victory speech as soon as they made the call because the exit polls knew we were going to win.
Made a brilliant victory speech where he went, looked forward.
He talked about Republican unity.
He talked about beating Joe Biden.
And that's the important thing.
And he didn't mention Nikki Haley.
I mean, I thought he was gracious in Iowa.
I think that the way Nikki Haley kind of positioned New Hampshire annoyed the president, and they did go after her there.
And I thought that was a mistake, but that was my humble opinion.
And I think unless and until she wins a state, and I'm looking at the calendar, I don't know what state she's going to compete in.
I think that's the best strategy going forward.
Matt Towery, where were you in your final poll?
We were basically where the race ended.
I think we had Trump at 60 and Haley in the upper 30s.
By the way, that's the way it ended.
You got it.
Yeah.
Yeah.
So there's a story today, Sean.
I'm sure you've seen it in the New York Times saying Donald Trump underperformed the polls.
No, he didn't.
He underperformed a bunch of polls taken long before the actual vote, which is typical for the way these things go down.
It's usually me and Robert and one or two other pollsters who are brave enough and fair enough to poll these things at the very end in these battleground states in primaries and in general elections.
And by the way, John's absolutely right.
Pollsters all talk to each other.
John nailed it too.
So congratulations to John.
They knew what they were doing.
But by the way, Matt, I did cite your polls of Robert's polls to President Trump that morning before the polls closed to say those polls were right.
And it was great.
It was a huge win.
I'm sure he said, who is this idiot, Towery?
I'm kidding.
I don't really think so.
And I know for a fact that he knows who you are, and he knows Robert K. Haley, who he was.
Robert, you were right there with John and with Matt.
Yes, sir.
We thought this thing was a lot closer.
And John was right.
We started from the very beginning reaching out and polling both independents, swing voters, and Democrats.
Understanding there could be a high participation.
We've seen that before, especially when the Democrat primary was so low attend.
They had 225,000 people that they could turn out for the Republican primary, and they worked very hard to do so.
And on the ground, we could see that effort.
So a lot of these other polls that were saying 30, 35 just did not include, just didn't do that research and weren't aware of that.
So it was a huge Democrat participation.
And Nikki Haley herself set the bar at 43% on Meet the Press.
That's what she said a victory was, and she didn't get there.
That's a great point.
She was at 39.
But by any definition, losing your home state where she was elected governor not once but twice, I think is a very loud message that is being sent to her.
And I think for, you know, looking at the future calendar, you guys see Michigan.
We see Washington, D.C.
I don't know, maybe she can do well there.
I don't like the fact that Democrats are being quartered to vote in Republican primaries.
We have the same problem in New Hampshire.
What the hell, John McLaughlin?
What are the Republicans in these states thinking by allowing that to happen?
Well, it's up to the state law and the state party rules.
That's why a lot of the Republican parties in those open states have gone to caucuses instead.
So the Michigan delegates will be victorious as a mix of the primary and caucuses.
Nevada was a caucus.
And by the way, she didn't participate in the caucus where the delegates were awarded.
Why would you participate in a primary where you're not going to get anything out of it?
And by the way, she lost to none of the above.
She lost to nobody on the ballot.
No, she lost 63 to 30, I mean, to none of these candidates, a term that they permit on the ballot in Nevada.
No, she's doing damage to herself, and it's time to recognize that Donald Trump has to beat Joe Biden for the sake of the country, and she needs to withdraw graciously and help us beat Joe Biden.
Because right now, what's the sense of bringing Biden voters into a Republican primary who want to really help Joe Biden?
And she's being funded.
I granted she's got plenty of money.
She's being funded by Biden donors, although I noticed that.
Well, the Koch family pulled back, and they concluded that they're wasting their money.
They're not putting any more money into Nikki Haley.
You know, Ari Fleischer said something.
I want to get all your takes on this.
He said that the speech of Nikki Haley in South Carolina sounded like a no-labels party speech.
Did you get that impression, Matt?
Yeah, and I would say go for it.
The no-labels group, if it had ever, you've got to understand, there are people who are polling for it and raising money for it, so they have a reason to be there, a monetary reason to make sure there's a no-labels candidate.
But that no labels candidate in all of effect will probably just take these suburban voters who don't like Donald Trump and give them somewhere else to go.
Otherwise, they would go to Joe Biden or whomever the Democrats end up nominating as their nominee for president.
So it's all a folly.
It's a waste of time.
The truth is, Donald Trump is now the nominee de facto of the Republican Party.
And if the GOP doesn't get its act together and start putting every dime they have into winning in November, they're going to lose again.
And it won't be Donald Trump's fault.
It will be all these minions and consultants and people, the experts on TV who keep trying to figure out why he's not going to be the nominee.
You agree with that, Robert Cahaley?
Yeah, I think that what, you know, maybe no label fits Nikki better today, but that really is the difference between 2016 and 2020.
If you take people who don't want to be for Trump and give them some other choice other than Biden, which is where they ended up in 2020, there was other candidates in 2016.
You get two, I mean, a three or four-way race, and it's very difficult for Trump to lose.
They just got somewhere else to go.
So I think you all speak in no labels.
That'd be awesome.
Yeah.
Go ahead.
Yeah.
A lot of these states have sore loser laws.
If you run in the Republican primary, you can't run as an independent in the general election in a lot of states.
So that kind of thinking for Nikki, you know, unlike Robert Kennedy, who pulled out and can still filed to run in the November election, she can't do that.
South Carolina's a little different in that the total loser is more of a pledge you make to the party, a pledge she makes in South Carolina that she won't do that, but she also pledged to be in the debate that she wouldn't do that.
So if you're going to break one pledge, you'll break another.
We continue now with our pollsters.
Not only looking back to Saturday, South Carolina, but looking forward to the remaining primaries.
Matt Towery, Robert Cahaly, and John McLaughlin are with us.
Matt, we'll give this to you first, and that is about Joe Biden, and he's at a 38% approval rating.
86% of the American people, ABC, say that he's too old to run for a new term.
If you look at his polling on every major issue of our time, Bidenomics, foreign policy, Ukraine, Israel, foreign affairs in general, immigration, energy.
I mean, these are all-time lows for an incumbent president.
Now, with that, and add to that, Donald Trump and the polling is winning in the swing states as of today, but a lot probably is going to happen between now and then, a lot that none of us can predict today.
Well, I'm sure you've seen these media stories in the last 48 hours, maybe even the last week, trying to claim that Donald Trump is now cognitively challenged and he's at the same level as Joe Biden.
I don't think the public's going to swallow that.
You can see the difference between the two.
But that's where this is all going.
If they can't get rid of Joe Biden, they're going to say that Donald Trump has more problems than Joe Biden does, even if Joe Biden can't even get up in the morning.
That's where that's going.
And I can assure you, by the time the fall comes, you'll find plenty of national polls from news organizations saying, oh, Biden, even though we've not seen him in five weeks, is still magnificent and leading Trump in a massive turnaround.
That's the way this thing works.
But truthfully, the Democrats have a real issue right now.
They don't know how to get rid of the vice president because she's an African-American female and that's their base.
And they don't really know how to shove the president out because he is the president of the United States and his wife and others are going to protect him and try to keep him clinging on.
And then, of course, you have the governor of California and others hanging out there on the side saying, we love you, Joe, but really wanting to step in.
I don't know how this thing ends.
Oh, no, he's not saying that.
He says that his age is a real advantage.
That's how far the deep.
And he said to me repeatedly, Robert, we'll throw this to you.
He said that he's not running and that the person next in line would be Vice President Harris.
So I think that, I mean, unless he's lying to me.
Well, I think that Gavin is saying what he needs as far as Harris being the choice.
Gavin saying what he needs to say right now in this age's advantage.
That may work for trees.
I don't know if it works for president.
All right, John McLaughlin, Robert Cahali, Matt Towery, we appreciate all of you.
Congratulations to all of you.
It's not easy.
Polling is not an exact science.
It takes a lot of knowledge, and you have to factor in every nuance at every different state and Democrats being able to vote in Republican primaries.
No state should allow that.
But that was the case in South Carolina.
And I don't think that should be the case anywhere.
But thank you.
Thank you all.
800-941-Sean, our number.
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Interesting, I did hear back from Gavin Newsom.
I was on Fox and Friends on Saturday because we did our show from South Carolina on Friday night, and they asked if I'd stay over and do the show.
And I did it with the morning crew, a great group of people.
But then he actually goes, apparently he goes on Fake Jake Tapper on Fake News CNN.
And he goes on to say, you know, they invoke a wrath of a holy God in their decision.
He's talking about the Alabama Supreme Court's ruling that frozen embryos are children.
I couldn't disagree anymore with this analysis.
Donald Trump came out with a very, very powerful statement supporting in vitro fertilization.
I mean, think about all the people that you probably know in your life that have had a hard time conceiving.
And this is a process where you just can't have one egg being fertilized and think that that's going to work the first time.
Often it does not work that way.
Or you think about young couples where maybe somebody is going into a war zone.
And anyway, maybe the husband's going into a war zone and he wants to have the possibility of having children.
So they do this before they actually are deployed.
Anyway, so but Gavin Newsom's take on it was, well, he claims Republicans believe rapists have more rights than the women they impregnate.
Really, Gavin?
Now, I said on air, I looked right into the camera.
I said, Gavin, these comments are repulsive because a Supreme Court decision in Alabama does not reflect the views of most conservatives and most Republicans.
But of course, Democrats, desperate because they can't run on their record, they want to demagogue any and everything in the lead up to the 2024 presidential race.
And he further went on to say, as I mentioned earlier, Joe Biden, his age is a real benefit.
It's an advantage of his.
I'm like, he's got to be the only person in America that thinks that way.
All right, let's get to our busy phones.
800-941-Sean, our number, if you want to be a part of the program, let us say hi to Bill is in New Joise.
What's up, Bill?
How are you?
Sean, how are you?
Thank you so much for being a voice for all of us who otherwise are unheard.
Well, thank you for giving me this microphone because without your help, I couldn't do it.
So we're a team working together here.
How's that?
Great.
Thank you.
I see, despite Nikki Haley's puffery, Donald Trump is the only one who's polling right now with 312 electoral votes.
Basically, you're correct.
Go ahead.
Yeah, no, basically, the Democrats are using her as a tool to try to weaken the Republican Party, and her actively, you know, encouraging Democrats to vote for her is nonsense because they're never going to vote for her i i in the general election i mean i out in south carolina 6 percent of the vote were liberals they don't sound like uh republicans to me uh in new hampshire uh 399 395 non-republicans were eligible to vote uh so
The chance that these people are going to vote for her if it ever came to a general election, it's extremely remote.
Look, I don't like the fact that these states allowed Democrats or people to switch their affiliation to create chaos and havoc within Republican primaries are allowed to get away with that.
I'm not sure why any Republican party in any state would ever allow it.
I think it's insane.
I think Republicans should pick Republican nominees like Democrats should pick Democratic nominees.
It's not really complicated.
And so I don't know what Nikki's thinking is on this.
I don't have any personal animus at all towards her.
We've gotten along fine over the years.
However, at this point, I would argue I don't see and nor does anybody that understands politics any path forward for her.
And then you have to ask the question, well, why is she staying in the race?
Because what is it?
There are profound implications with her staying in.
That means that Republican money that would otherwise be saved and used for a general election campaign now has to further be spent on future primaries.
And, you know, here we are.
I mean, it's February 26th.
But and we're just what, 252 days away from Election Day.
The money that is available between now and March 5th, Super Tuesday, assuming she might get out after Super Tuesday.
I mean, that that's going to take a lot of money.
Look at all the states you have in the interim.
You have Michigan.
You have Washington, D.C. You have North Dakota, Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Texas, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont and Virginia, Alaska.
And, you know, that that's a significant number of states.
And if she's spending massive amounts of money, she's been well funded.
I'm not sure what it means with Americans for Prosperity and the Koch people pulling out supporting her campaign.
But she had been taking in vast amounts of money.
I think we need an accounting where a lot of that money is coming from.
But wouldn't shock me if Democrats are purposely trying to keep this, keep her in this race as long as possible.
So the Trump campaign has to spend a lot more money than they otherwise would have.
Oh, I agree totally.
I mean, like Trump has faced a lot of Republican opposition over time.
We've never seen a presidency where there was more backstabbing and leaks out of the White House, even to the point of people taking spy pictures of their bosses, for crying out loud.
Right.
No, I understand.
Look, I just got to tell you something.
This primary is over.
There's really no other way to analyze it.
Anybody that knows anything about politics knows that there is no real path that anybody can see for her to get the nomination.
And if there was, I would say so.
I would say, okay, but when you lose your own state by 21 percentage points and a state where you are even appealing to Democrats to cross over to vote for you, I don't think that's the greatest strategy to win.
But we'll see.
But in the end, I hope everybody unites and I hope everybody gets along.
I think that's in the best interest of the party.
I thought John Thune's endorsement of President Trump after the South Carolina primary was important.
We'll see what Mitch McConnell does.
My guess is he would probably follow suit, considering Thunu's number two in the Senate.
I have no doubt that probably that'll happen, maybe as early as this week.
Anyway, appreciate the call.
Michael in the free state of Florida, sir, how are you?
Glad you called.
Hey, Sean, Michael here, and how are you?
I'm good.
How are you?
What's going on?
I'm great.
Hold on one second.
I was told not to go on speaker, so here I go.
All right.
So you're taking yourself off speaker.
Very good caller.
Although you're supposed to do it before you get on the air, but it's all right.
You're growing as a caller.
Anyway, is that better?
Yeah, much better.
What's on your mind?
Oh, okay.
I'm so sorry.
Anyway, I'm kind of angry.
I'm really angry.
You know, I keep hearing about all these hearings, investigations, and polls, you know, Republicans are conducting.
They go on and on and on.
That makes me angry because I think they're all just kind of peeing in the wind.
It's like, come on, we've been doing this for years with no results.
Yeah, you got to speak into the mic in your phone.
It's like your phone is distant from you.
Can you speak in directly?
Yeah, yeah, okay.
And the reason I think this, Sean, is because women, I think, make up a huge part of the vote.
And I was just at my sister-in-law, and she's a typical American woman.
She doesn't even have any Republican channels, no conservative channels.
And that comes with her cable.
And I'm not supposed to talk to her because she hates Trump, my wife told me.
But I said, Why are you not supposed to talk to her?
It's your sister.
Well, she's very opinionated.
And basically, you know, it becomes a fight.
I would just, I wouldn't let your whole relationship be destroyed over politics.
That's my own personal opinion.
Well, you know, but if she's going to bring it up and shove it in your face, just have your facts ready and just say, yeah, what you're saying is just not true.
And then you start asking her questions.
Do you think Joe Biden is a cognitive mess?
And just run down the list.
Do you like the fact that nearly 10 million illegal immigrants, unvetted, have come into the country, many from tens of thousands from our top geopolitical foes?
Again, with no background check, do you really believe Biden Ox is effective?
Do you think he's done a good job on the economy?
Do you think his foreign policy is good for America?
Does he project strength to you?
Just have a list of questions in your head and just mess with her.
And then just watch her bubble and fizz like Alka Seltzer in a glass of water, and it'll probably make her storm out of the room.
But, you know, you can get some kicks and giggles out of it.
Am I still on?
You're still on.
Oh, okay.
Well, here, I did it kind of like what you said, but I did it in a nice way.
I said, don't you have any Republican states?
She said, no.
I said, well, what do you think about the Mexico border crisis?
She said, I understand that problem to immigrants.
And I said, what?
And I said, basically the same thing that you're just telling me.
I'm going to let you go.
Your phone.
You have a sports illustrated football phone.
I think it's time you get a new phone.
But yeah, we're paying for all of it.
We're paying for all of it.
And it is the single greatest national security threat in our lifetime.
And when we wake up one morning, whenever that happens to be, because I don't think it's a matter of if, I know it's when, and we are attacked from within, and we find out later, oh, oh, this was a group of illegal immigrants that came in from whatever country, and that was when Joe Biden was president or while Joe Biden is president, and they'll have blood on their hands because this is basic, simple common sense.
And they told us and lied to us for three years, and now they're out there, Joe Biden going to the border on Thursday.
And, you know, it's a joke.
You know, now he's saying, I've done everything I could possibly do, and I need Republican help, and they're not helping me or anything.
And I don't understand why they won't help.
Well, you were telling us for three years that you didn't need help.
You said the border was closed and the border was secure.
Everybody in your administration peddled that outright lie.
People are not blind.
We see the crisis happening.
And I'm not against immigration.
I just want it to be legal.
I don't really give a hoot where you come from.
Just do it legally.
Go through the process.
Get vetted.
Make sure you have a health check.
Make sure that you're going to be able to take care of yourself.
We need to know that you're not going to be a financial burden on the American people.
Then once you come in legally and we vet you properly, then welcome to America.
Welcome to our family.
It's that simple for me.
Anyway, appreciate it.
800-941-Sean on number Mark in Connecticut.
Mark, apparently down and bummed out about something.
What are you bummed out about?
How are you doing, Sean?
Thanks for taking my call.
A long time I haven't spoken with you.
No, I mean, I'm up at the fact that it was great this week in South Carolina.
And Trump is so sharp and he's so with it and he makes so much sense and all that stuff is great and it energizes us conservatives very much.
But when you think about the end game, that's where I'm down.
Because with the left, they don't just have a plan B.
They have a plan C, D, E, and F.
Okay?
I completely agree.
Continue.
And we don't.
We don't even have a plan A.
Okay?
And so it's the same old story.
Here we go.
Trump looking great.
Everything's good.
You win by 20 points.
You're probably going to sweep the same kind of victory in Michigan and so forth.
But it all is moot because they're going to find a way to make sure that he is not the next president of the United States.
I hope I'm, like you often say, I hope I'm wrong, but it sure looks like that.
Listen, there's a lot that they, you know, you've always got to be wary.
And that's why election integrity measures that I've mentioned so often, and I won't repeat them again, are critical.
But that's why Republicans' resistance to early voting, voting by mail.
I'm sorry.
I know people disagree with me.
Hannity, you don't know what you're talking about.
Yes, I do.
Because unless Republicans get elected, that's the system you're going to be stuck with forever.
And the issue of legal ballot harvesting, I was really, really, it was music to my ears to hear Laura Trump, if she becomes the vice chair of the RNC and she's up for that race, saying that they'd have the biggest ballot harvesting, legal ballot harvesting efforts ever was music to my ears.
And I hope if that happens, then Republicans now are competing on a level playing field.
Anyway, I appreciate the call, my friend.
If we start there, that's going to make a difference in and of itself.
All right, that's going to wrap things up for today.
We've got a great show, Nine Eastern Hannity on the Fox News channel.
Peter Ducey will be commenting on all things.
The, oh, let's say compromised, cognitively struggling president.
We'll check in with Ted Cruz.
Charlie Hurt.
Oh, our friend Senator John Kennedy.
You never want to miss John Kennedy.
Byron Donalds, Kellyanne Conway, Tommy Laron, Nine Eastern, on Hannity, on Fox.
We'll see you then back here tomorrow.
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