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Feb. 27, 2024 - Sean Hannity Show
31:07
Pollsters on Trump - February 26th, Hour 3
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All right, news roundup and information overload hour.
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All right, as we now look to the future, the remaining primary calendar.
Uh pretty simple.
We have Michigan, uh, that is both parties.
Then the you know, of course, the Michigan GOP convention, no uh delegates awarded.
Idaho's coming up, Washington's coming up, and North Dakota's coming up uh very quickly, and then March 5th, it's super Tuesday, and you've got all these states.
Uh anyway, uh let's go back to Saturday.
Donald Trump really taken on Nikki Haley and just it was pretty much a wipe out.
Uh many pollsters nailed it.
We'll check in with our pollsters because they all nailed it.
Uh but anyway, here is Donald Trump saying, I've never seen a Republican Party as unified as it is now, and then Nikki Haley vowing to stay in the race and saying that Donald Trump's comments drive people away.
Well, she lost in her home state by twenty-one.
Anyway, listen.
We're gonna straighten things out.
The border is the worst you know in the middle of the 2016 we won.
We had a bad border, I talked about the border a lot, talked about it a lot, and uh we fixed it very quickly.
And in 2020 we couldn't talk about it although we did get millions of more votes a second time.
But now this is spirit that I have never seen we ran two great races.
But it's never been like this.
And I just want to say that I have never seen the Republican party so unified as it is.
Never been linked.
Today in South Carolina, we're getting around 40% of the vote.
That's about what that's about what we got in New Hampshire, too.
I'm gonna count it.
I know 40% is not 50%.
But I also know 40% is not some tiny group.
There are there are huge numbers of voters in our Republican primaries who were saying they want an alternative.
I said earlier this week that no matter what happens in South Carolina, I would continue to run for president.
I'm a woman of my word.
I'm not giving up this fight when a majority of Americans disapprove of both Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
Anyway, joining us now, pollster John McLaughlin, McLaughlin and Associates, Matt Towery, Insider Advantage, Robert Cahaley, Trafalgar Group.
Now, my understanding is I think all of you, your final polls going into South Carolina, weren't you all within a point or a point or two?
Uh John, where was everybody?
Well, my polls weren't public.
Their polls were, but my polls were for President Trump, his campaign polls.
And that morning of the South Carolina primary, I told him before his CPAC speech we were going to win by around 20 points.
And that would be a landslide, considering that 20 percent of all the people coming into the Republican primary had a past history of voting in Democratic primaries and were being recruited by the Haley people, plus 20 percent were favorable to Joe Biden, and they were voting 80 to 6 for Haley.
So Haley's 40 percent was inflated by these Democrats coming in to try to embarrass President Trump.
And it didn't work.
He won.
He won huge going away 60-40 in her home state where they had badly outspent us.
And they were trying to bring in like they did in New Hampshire.
They tried to bring in Democratic primary voters into the Republican primary and it didn't work.
And now, you know, Haley has no place to go.
President Trump was brilliant that night because he gave a victory speech as soon as they made the call, because the exit polls knew we were going to win, made a brilliant victory speech where he went, looked forward.
He talked about Republican unity.
He talked about beating Joe Biden.
And that's the important thing.
And that's the important thing.
And and he didn't and he didn't mention Nikki Haley.
I mean I thought he was gracious in Iowa.
I think that the way Nikki Haley kind of positioned New Hampshire uh annoyed the president and they did go after her there and I thought that was a mistake, but that's my humble opinion.
And I think unless and until she wins a state and I don't I'm looking at the calendar.
I don't know what state she's going to compete in.
Uh I think that's the best strategy going forward.
Um Matt Towery where were you in your final poll?
Uh we were basically where the race ended and I think we had Trump at sixty and Haley in the upper thirties um there's a that's the way by the way that's the way it ended.
You got it.
Yeah.
Yeah.
So so there's a story today, Sean, I'm sure you've seen it in the New York New York Times saying Donald Trump underperformed the polls.
No he didn't.
He underpro performed a bunch of polls taken long before the actual vote, which is typical for the way these things go down.
It's usually me and Robert and one or two other pollsters who are brave enough and fair enough to poll these things at the very end in these battleground states in primaries and in general elections.
And and by the way, John's absolutely right pollsters all talk to each other.
John nailed it too.
So congratulations to John they knew what they were doing.
But by the way, Matt, I did cite your polls of Robert's polls to President Trump that morning before the uh polls closed to say there those polls were right.
So and he and it was great.
It was a huge win.
I'm sure I'm sure he said who is this idiot Towery I don't really think so.
Uh and I I know for a fact that he knows who you are and he knows Robert Kahley who he was uh Robert you were right there with John and with Matt.
Yes, sir.
We thought this thing was a lot closer, and John was right.
We started from the very beginning reaching out and polling both independents, swing voters, and Democrats.
I understand there could be a high participation.
We've seen that before, especially when the Democrat primary was so low attended this year.
They had 225,000 people that they could turn out to the Republican primary, and they worked very hard to do so.
and on the ground we could see that effort.
so um a lot of these other polls that were saying 30, 35 just did not include didn't just didn't do that research and weren't aware of that.
So it was uh a huge Democrat participation and um Nikki Haley herself set the bar at 43 percent on meet the press that's what she said a victory was and she didn't get there.
That's a great point.
She was at 39.
Um and but by any definition losing your home state where she was elected governor not once but twice I think is a very loud message that is being sent to her and I think for you know and I'm looking at the future calendar do you you guys see Michigan we see Washington uh DC I don't know maybe she can do well there.
I don't like the fact that that Democrats are being quartered to vote in Republican primaries.
We have the same problem in New Hampshire.
What the hell John McLaughlin's in these states thinking by allowing that to happen.
Well it's uh it's up to the state law and the state party rules that's why a lot of the Republican parties in those open states have gone to caucuses instead.
So the the the Michigan delegates will be victed as a mix of the primary and caucuses.
Nevada was a caucus and by the way she didn't participate in the caucus where the delegates delegates were awarded she went in the why why would you participate in a primary where you're not gonna give get anything out of it.
And by the way she lost to none of none of the above she lost to nobody on the ballot like two to thirty I mean to the none of these candidates a term that they permit on the ballot and they in in Nevada.
No she's doing damage to herself and it's time it's time to recognize that Donald Trump has to beat Joe Biden for the sake of the country and she needs to withdraw graciously and and uh help us beat Joe Biden because right now uh what's the sense of bringing Biden voters into a Republican primary who you know want to really help Joe Biden and she's being funded I granted she's got plenty of money.
She's being funded by Biden donors although I noticed that uh the Ko the Koch family pulled back and they concluded that they're wasting their money, they're not putting any more money into Nikki Haley.
You know, Ari Fleischer said something.
I want to get all your takes on this.
He said that the speech of Nikki Haley in South Carolina sounded like a no labels party speech.
Did you get that impression, Matt?
Uh yeah, and and I would say go for it.
Um the the no labels group, if it ever you gotta understand there are people who are polling for it and raising money for it, so they have a reason to be there, a monetary reason to make sure there's a no labels candidate.
But that no labels candidate in all of effect will probably just take the suburban voters who don't like Donald Trump and give them somewhere else to go.
Otherwise they would go to Joe Biden or whomever the Democrats end up nominating as their nominee for president.
So the that it's all a folly.
It's a waste of time.
The truth is Donald Trump is now the nominee de facto of the Republican Party, and if the GOP doesn't get its act together and start putting every dime they have into winning in November, they're gonna lose again.
And it won't be Donald Trump's fault.
It'll be all these minions and consultants and people, uh the experts on TV who keep trying to figure out why he's not going to be the nominee.
You tell you you agree with that, Robert Cahaley.
Yeah, I I think that what you know maybe maybe no label fits Nikki better today.
Uh, but that really is the difference between 2016 and 2020.
You know, if you take people who don't want to be for Trump and give them some other choice other than than Biden, which is where they ended up in 2020, you know, there was other candidates in twenty uh sixteen.
You get a two, I mean a three or four way race, and it's very difficult for Trump to lose.
They just gotta have somewhere else to go.
So uh think you won't speak in their labels.
That that'd be awesome.
Yeah.
Uh go ahead.
Yeah.
There's a lot of these states have sore loser laws.
If you run in the Republican primary, you can't run as an independent in the general election in a lot of states.
So that kind of thinking for Nikki, you know, there's unlike Robert Kennedy who pulled out and can still file to run in the November election.
She can't do that.
Well, South Carolina's a little different in that the the um total loser is more of a pledge you make to the party.
Uh a pledge she makes in South Carolina that she won't do that, but she also pledged to be in the debate that she wouldn't do that.
So break one pledge, you'll break another.
We continue now with our pollsters now not only looking back to Saturday, South Carolina, but looking forward to the remaining primaries.
Uh Matt Towery, Robert Cahaley, and John McLaughlin are with us.
Matt will give this to you first, and that is about Joe Biden and is at a thirty-eight percent approval rating.
Uh eighty-six percent of the American people, ABC say that he's too old to run for a new term.
If you look at his polling on on every major issue of our time, Bidenomics, foreign policy, Ukraine, Israel, foreign affairs in general, uh uh uh immigration, energy.
I mean, uh I mean, these are all time lows for an incumbent president.
Now, with that and add to that there John Donald Trump and the polling is winning in the swing states as of today, but a lot probably is gonna happen between now and then, a lot that none of us can predict today.
Well, yeah, I I'm sure you've seen these media stories in the last uh forty-eight hours, maybe the last even the last week, trying to claim that Donald Trump is now cognitively challenged and he's he's at the same level as Joe Biden.
I don't think the public's gonna swallow that.
You can see the difference between the two.
But that's where this is all going.
If they can't get rid of Joe Biden, they're going to say that Donald Trump has more problems than Joe Biden does, even if Joe Biden can't even get up in the morning.
That's that's where that's going.
And and I can assure you, by by the time the fall comes, you'll find plenty of national polls from news organizations saying, oh, Biden, even though we've not seen him in five weeks, is still magnificent and leading Trump in a massive turnaround.
That's the way this thing works.
Uh but but truthfully, the Democrats have a real issue right now.
They don't know how to get rid of the vice president because she's an African American female, and that's their base, and they don't really know how to shove the president out because he is the president of the United States and his his wife and others are gonna protect him and Try to keep him clinging on.
And then of course you have the governor of California and others hanging out there on the side saying, We love you, Joe, but really wanting to step in.
I don't know how this thing ends.
Oh no, he's not saying that.
He says that his age is a real advantage.
And that's that's how far the deep and and he said to me repeatedly, Robert, we'll give throw this to you.
He said that he's not running and that it the person next in line would be Vice President Harris.
So I think that I I mean, unless he's lying to me.
Well, I I think that um Gavin is saying what he need as far as um hair spinning being the choice uh Gavin saying what he needs to say right now and this age is advantageous.
That may work for trees.
I don't think it works for president.
All right, John McLaughlin, uh Robert Cahaley, Matt Towery, we appreciate all of you.
Congratulations to all of you.
It's not easy.
Polling is is not an exact science.
It takes a lot of knowledge and you have to factor in every nuance at every different state and Democrats being able to vote in Republican primaries, no state should allow that.
But that was the case in South Carolina, and I don't think that should be the case anywhere.
But thank you.
Thank you all.
Uh 800-941 Sean, our number, if you want to be a part of the program.
Your calls are coming up next.
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You know, we talk a lot about pre-born and why?
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Uh you might be helping to convince a woman on the fence that hey, there's something of great value that is uh growing within you, and you might want to consider life as an option.
Anyway, eight hundred nine four one Sean, if you want to be a part of the program.
Uh interesting, I did hear back from Gavin Newsom.
Uh I was on Fox and Friends on Saturday, uh, because we did our show from uh South Carolina on Friday night, and they asked if I'd stay over and do the show, and I did it with you know, the the morning crew, a great great group of people.
Um but then he actually goes, apparently he goes on fake Jake Tapper on fake news CNN, and he goes on to say, you know, they invoke a wrath of a holy God in their decision.
He's talking about the Alabama Supreme Court's ruling that frozen embryos are children.
I couldn't disagree any more with this this analysis.
Donald Trump came out with a very, very powerful statement supporting in vitro fertilization.
I mean, think about all the people that you probably know in your life that have had a hard time conceiving, and and this is a process where uh you you just can't have one egg being fertilized and think that that's that's gonna work the first time.
Often it does not work that way.
Or you think about young couples where maybe somebody is going into a war zone and and anyway, maybe the the husband's going into a war zone and and he wants to have the possibility of having children, so they do this before they actually are deployed.
Anyway, so but Gavin Newsom's take on it was well, he claims Republicans believe rapists have more rights than the women they impregnate.
Really, Gavin.
Now I said on air, I looked right into the camera.
I said, Gavin, these comments are repulsive.
Because ex the uh a Supreme Court decision in Alabama does not reflect the views of most conservatives and most Republicans, but of course, Democrats, desperate because they can't run on their record, they want to demagogue any and everything in the lead up to the 2024 presidential race.
And he further went on to say, as I mentioned earlier, uh Joe Biden is his age is a real benefit.
It's a it's an advantage of his.
I'm like, he's got to be the only person in America that thinks that way.
All right, let's get to our busy uh phones.
800-941 Sean, our number, if you want to be a part of the program.
Uh, let us say hi to Bill is in New Joycey.
What's up, Bill?
How are you?
Sean, how are you?
Thank you so much for being a voice for all of us who otherwise are unheard.
Well, thank you for giving me this microphone, because without your help, I couldn't do it.
So we're in a we're a team working together here.
How's that?
Great, thank you.
I see uh despite uh Nikki Haley's puffery, uh, Donald Trump is the only one who's polling right now at 312 electoral votes.
Basically, yeah.
Yeah, no, no, you're correct.
Go ahead.
Yeah, no, basically, uh the you know, the Democrats are using her as a tool to try to weaken the Republican Party, and her actively, you know, encouraging Democrats to vote for her uh is nonsense because they're never gonna vote for her i in the general election.
I mean, it out in South Carolina, six percent of the vote were liberals.
They don't sound like uh Republicans to me.
Uh in New Hampshire, uh three hundred and ninety-nine thousand three hundred and ninety-five non-Republicans were eligible to vote.
Uh so the the the chance that uh the these people are gonna vote for her when it if it ever came to a general election, is it's extremely remote.
Look, uh i uh I don't like the fact that these states allowed Democrats or or people to switch their affiliation to create chaos and havoc within Republican primaries are allowed to get away with that.
I'm not sure why any Republican party in any state would ever allow it.
I think it's insane.
I think Republicans should pick Republican nominees, like Democrats should pick Democratic nominees.
It's it's not really complicated.
And so I you know, I don't know what Nikki's thinking is on this.
Um I don't have any personal animus at all towards her.
Uh we've got along fine over the years.
Uh however, at this point, I would argue I don't see and nor does anybody that understands politics any path forward for her.
And then you have to ask the question why is she staying in the race?
Because what is it with there are profound implications with her staying in.
That means that Republican money that would otherwise be saved and used for a general election campaign now has to further be spent on future primaries.
And you know, here we are.
I mean, it's February twenty-sixth, but he and we're just what, two hundred and fifty-two days away from election day.
Uh the money that is available between now and March 5th, Super Tuesday, assuming she might get out after Super Tuesday.
I mean, that that's gonna take a lot of money.
Uh look at all the states you have in the interim.
You have Michigan, you have Washington, D.C., you have North Dakota, Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Texas, Tennessee, uh, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia, Alaska, and you know, that that that's a significant number of states, and if she's spending massive amounts of money, she's been well funded.
Uh, I'm not sure what it means with Americans for prosperity and the Coke people pulling out uh supporting her campaign, but she had been taking in vast amounts of money.
I I think we'd need an accounting where a lot of that money's coming from, but wouldn't shock me if Democrats are purposely trying to keep this at keep her in this race as long as possible.
So the Trump campaign has to spend a lot more money than they otherwise would have.
Oh, I agree totally.
I mean, like Trump has faced a lot of Republican opposition over time.
I've you I we've never seen a re a presidency where there was more backstabbing and leaks out of the White House, even to the point of people taking spy pictures of their bosses for crying out loud.
Right.
No, I understand.
I look, I just gotta tell you something.
If that this primary is over.
There's really no other way to analyze it.
Anyone that knows anything about politics knows that there's no real path that anybody can see for her to get the nomination.
And if there was, I would say so.
I I would say, okay, but when you lose your own state by twenty-one percentage points, uh, and a state where you are even appealing to Democrats to cross over to vote for you, I don't think that's the greatest strategy to win.
But we'll see.
But uh in the end, I hope everybody unites and I hope everybody gets along.
I think that's in the best interest of the party.
I thought John Thun's endorsement of President Trump after the South Carolina primary was important.
Uh we'll see what Mitch McConnell does.
My guess is he would probably follow suit considering Thune was number two in the Senate.
I have no doubt that probably that'll happen pro maybe as early as this week.
Anyway, appreciate the call.
Michael in the free state of Florida, sir.
How are you?
Glad you called.
Hey, Sean Michael here, and uh how are you?
I'm good.
How are you?
What's going on?
I'm I'm great.
Um hold on one second.
I was told not to go on speaker, so here I go.
All right, so you're on you're taking yourself off speaker.
Very good caller.
Although you're supposed to do it before you get on the air, but it's all right.
W you're you're you're growing as a caller.
Anyway, is that better?
Yeah, that much better.
What's on your mind?
Oh, okay.
I'm so sorry.
Anyway, um, I'm kinda angry.
I'm really angry.
I I you know I keep hearing about all these hearings, investigations, and pro Republicans are conducting, they go on and on and on.
I make me angry because I think they're all just kind of peeling in the wind, you know.
That's uh it's like, come on, we've been doing this for years with no results.
And yeah, you got you gotta speak into the mic in your phone.
It's like your phone is distant from you.
Can you speak in directly?
Yeah, yeah, okay.
Um and the reason I think this, Sean, is because women I think make up a huge part of the vote.
And yeah, I was just at my sister in laws, and she's a typical American woman, and she doesn't even have any Republican channels, no no conservative channels, and that comes with their cable.
And I you know, I'm not supposed to talk to her because uh she she hates Trump, uh my wife told me, but um I said, so what do you why are you not supposed to talk to her?
It's your sister.
Well, sh she's very opinionated.
And basically sh you know, it becomes a fight.
I I would just I I would I wouldn't let your whole relationship be destroyed over politics.
That's my own personal opinion.
Well you know, but but you could if she's gonna bring it up and shove it in your face, just have your facts ready and just say, yeah, what you're saying is just not true.
And then you start asking her questions.
Do you think Joe Biden is a cognitive mess?
And just run down the list.
Do you do you like the fact that nearly ten million illegal immigrants unvetted have come into the country, many from tens of thousands from our top geopolitical foes?
Again, with no background check.
Uh do you really believe Bidenomics is is effective?
Do you think he's done a good job on the economy?
You think he's good his foreign policy is good for America?
Does he project strength to you?
Just have a list of questions in your head and just p just mess with her.
And then just watch her bubble and fizz like Alka Saltzer in a glass of water, and it'll probably make her storm out of the room, but you know, you can get some kicks and giggles out of it.
Am I still on?
You're still on.
Oh, okay.
Well, here I did it kind of like what you said, but I I did it in a nice way.
Don't you uh have any Republican states?
She said no.
I said, Well, what do you think about the the Mexico border crisis?
She said, I I understand there, you know, that problem to immigrants.
And I said, What?
And I said basically the same thing that you can tell anyway.
Uh I'm gonna let you go your phone.
You have a sports illustrated football phone.
I think it's time you get a new phone.
Um, but yeah, and we're paying for all of it.
We're paying for all of it, and the b it is the single greatest national security threat in our lifetime.
And when we wake up one morning, whenever that happens to be, because I don't think it's a matter of if I I know it's when we are attacked from within, and we find out later.
Oh, oh, this was a a group of illegal immigrants that came in from whatever country.
And that was when Joe Biden was president, or while Joe Biden is president.
Uh, and they'll have blood on their hands.
Because this is basic, simple common sense.
And they told us and lied to us for three years, and now they're out there, Joe Biden going to the border on Thursday.
Um, and you know, it's a joke.
You know, now he's saying I've done I've done everything I could possibly do, and I need Republican help, and they're not helping me or anything, and I don't understand why they won't help.
Well, you were telling us for three years that you didn't need help.
You said the border was was closed and the border was secure.
Everybody in your administration peddled that outright lie.
People are not blind.
We see the crisis happening, and I'm not against immigration.
I just want it to be legal.
I don't really give a hoot where you come from.
Just do it legally.
Go through the process, get vetted.
Make sure you have a health check.
Make sure that you're you're going to be able to take care of yourself.
We need to know that you're not going to be a financial burden on the American people.
Then once you come in legally and we vet you properly, then welcome to America.
Welcome to our family.
It's that simple for me.
Anyway, appreciate it.
800-941 Sean, our number Mark in Connecticut.
Mark, apparently down and bummed out about something.
Well, what are you bummed out about?
How are you doing, sir?
Thanks for taking my call.
A long time I haven't spoken with you.
No, I mean, I'm I'm up the fact that it was great this week in in South Carolina, and and Trump is so sharp, and he's so with it, and he makes so much sense, and all that stuff is great, and it energizes us conservatives very much.
But when you think about the end game, that's where I'm down.
Because with the left, they don't just have a plan B. They have a plan C, D, E, and F. Okay.
I completely agree.
Continue.
And we don't.
We don't even have a plan A. Okay.
And so it's the same old story.
Here we go.
Trump looking great.
Everything's good.
You win by 20 points.
You're probably going to sweep, you know, the same kind of uh victory in Michigan and so forth.
But it all is moot because they're gonna find a way to make sure that he is not the next president of the United States.
I don't I hope I'm wrong, like you often say, I hope I'm wrong, but it sure looks like that.
Listen, there's a lot that they, you know, you've always got to be wary, and and that's why election integrity measures that I've mentioned so often, and I won't I won't repeat them again, are critical, but that's why Republicans' resistance to early voting, voting by mail.
I'm sorry, I know people disagree with me, Hannity.
You don't know what you're talking about.
Yes, I do.
Because unless Republicans get elected, that's the system you're gonna be stuck with forever.
And the issue of legal ballot harvesting, I was really really you know it was music to my ears to hear Laura Trump if she becomes the vice chair of the RNC and she's up for that race, saying that they'd have the biggest ballot harvesting, legal ballot harvesting efforts ever was music to my ears, and I I hope if that happens, then Republicans now are competing on a level playing field.
Anyway, I appreciate the call, my friend.
We have if we start there, that's that that's gonna make a difference in and of itself.
All right, that's gonna wrap things up for today.
We got a great show, nine Eastern Hannity on the Fox News Channel.
Peter Ducey will be commenting on all things the oh, let's say compromise, cognitively struggling president.
We'll check in with Ted Cruz, Charlie Hurt, oh, our friend Senator John Kennedy.
You never want to miss John Kennedy.
Byron Donald's, Kellyanne Conway, Tommy Larren, Nine Eastern on Hannity on Fox.
We'll see you then back here tomorrow.
And uh thank you for making this show possible.
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