Sean Hannity Show - Polling Is Tough - November 9th, Hour 1

Nov. 10, 2022 - Sean Hannity Show

31:26

Polling Is Tough - November 9th, Hour 1

Sean covers the latest on the polling industry and wonders if polling in general has become much more irrelevant than in years past... See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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	This is an iHeart podcast.
	All right, glad you're with us.
	It's the morning after the night before.
	Yes, the morning after the night before election night in America.
	Toll-free, our number is 800-941.
	Sean, if you want to be a part of the program, we've got a lot of ground to get to today, a lot of analysis.
	We just had a press conference a short time ago from Arizona.
	And we don't even know exactly how many votes are yet to be counted, except we know it's well over 412,000.
	That's all we know at this time.
	There may be as many as 600,000, according to my sources, on the ground.
	We'll try and get it squared away.
	Republican gubernatorial candidate, Carrie Lake, with the latest update before they even count these votes, is going to join us.
	She is now only 12,000 votes away from taking the lead.
	We do know that of the votes that are there, that 275,000 of them are mail-in day-of-votes that tend to favor Republicans by very high margins.
	We know that 125,000 were the weekend before, which probably would be people that wanted to walk it in themselves and make sure that their vote got counted.
	I would argue that probably favors Republicans.
	And I mean by dramatic numbers here.
	If I had to give a number, I'd say 70% at least.
	Another 17,000.
	And then they're talking about there might be in Pima County and other rural areas of Arizona outstanding votes.
	They don't know the number.
	And it could be, I'm told, over 100,000, maybe even more.
	So, you know, it would be nice.
	It would be fair to the rest of the country if we knew all we're hearing right now is that the Secretary of State and the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, the woman that should have recused herself from any involvement in running this election, Katie Hobbs, told voters to prepare to wait for days to be counted in this year's midterm elections.
	Now, this is insanity.
	Now, think about the what, 46, 47 states?
	I mean, I know we're still waiting.
	Georgia just declared they're going to have a runoff with Herschel Walker.
	Ron Johnson was declared the winner in Wisconsin.
	We don't have the winner yet in Nevada, but it looks like Adam Laxholt's in a pretty good position to take that Senate seat.
	So all of these races matter.
	Don't the American people deserve, especially in the 46, 47 states that know actually how to run elections without integrity problems.
	Why do we still have problems out in places like Arizona?
	There's no excuse for this.
	And maybe, I guess it was a blessing in disguise that Carrie Lay goes to a local precinct.
	She can't vote.
	Nobody there can vote.
	You know, 20% of tabulators, whatever the hell they are, I don't even know what, and Glinda was mocking me all day yesterday about it, weren't working.
	And I'm like, how is this possible?
	Because none of it makes sense.
	Another state, it sounds like Alaska is going to break the record this year for the longest delay in releasing voting results for the 2022 season.
	They're even worse, at least according to some reports, than Arizona is.
	Results in Alaska's congressional elections will not be decided until November 23rd, two weeks after Election Day, thanks to the state's new rank choice voting system, which is the Incumbent Protection Act of Lisa Murkowski.
	As I told you would happen, Kelly Chewbacca has a lead over Lisa Murkowski.
	What happens in this race is the person that comes, the top two finishers then go to the rank voting of people that are below them.
	In this case, there's only one person, although there was a Republican that bailed out, and I understand they got over 3% of the vote.
	So I would assume that those votes rank system would count as well.
	But unfortunately, the lone Democrat who had 9.5% of the vote, I got to imagine that the ranked voting, their ranking is going to be with Lisa Murkowski, who votes with Joe Biden 67% of the time.
	That would be my guess, because in order to win under Alaska's insane ranked choice voting system, a candidate has to gain more than 50% of the vote.
	If no candidate crosses the threshold in the first choice votes, as appears to be the case in this race, the last place candidate is eliminated, and the second choice votes of their supporters are tallied.
	And with over 200,000 ballots counted, the Democrat has nearly 10% of the votes.
	Many of her supporters are expected to rank Burkowski second.
	So in other words, Murkowski would only get elected by the Democrats in the state of Alaska.
	Why would anyone buy into that insane system?
	Anyway, Republican Buzz Kelly dropped out of the race in September, endorsed Kelly Chewbacca, but the name still appears on the ballot, and they had, what, almost 3% of first-choice votes.
	So I'd assume those votes have to be counted because they were cast.
	And once your name is on a ballot, you still get counted, even if you had bowed out of it.
	Nancy Pelosi is still insisting Democrats may still win the House.
	No, that's not going to happen.
	It looks like Republicans will do a pickup of somewhere around 16 to 18 to 20 in the House.
	Not what people were expecting or wanting, but they will be in the majority.
	And that is a massive success.
	And it's definitely something that we need to take some comfort in.
	That was no small deal.
	I thought the commitments to America would do a little bit better, but I'm wrong.
	But I have a lot to say about a lot of what happened last night.
	The first thing I want to say is I was warning people about this exuberance, which I thought was way over the top and way out of control.
	And this, if I heard the word wave election one more time, tsunami election.
	Okay, the conditions were there.
	They're right, but they don't mean a damn thing until people actually go vote.
	And polls were showing in every one of these states.
	From the very beginning, I said, this is a tough run for Republicans because we're looking at bellwether states, starting with Georgia, then moving to North Carolina, not a slam dunk.
	Polls seem to be way out of whack in New Hampshire.
	But New Hampshire, to be fair, only kind of appeared on our radar in the last three, three and a half weeks.
	I mean, it came out of nowhere.
	Nobody saw General Bulldog coming, and then all of a sudden, wow, this might be a winnable race.
	Let's start paying attention to it.
	And we did.
	I have no regrets about doing any of that.
	And, you know, I'll give you other examples.
	New York, Lee Zeldon.
	People would stop me in the grocery store.
	You think Lee's going to win?
	I said, he's got a chance.
	He's got a chance.
	But what it was going to take, it would take liberal, woke New York City Democrats to finally say they've had enough of people being thrown in front of subway cars, little old ladies being beaten the hell out of on the street, and murders at record rates that we haven't seen in 15 years.
	That's what it would take.
	And it didn't happen.
	So this whole state is, if you look at it on the map, it's all red, except for this little island called Manhattan, where Democrats outnumber Republicans 9 to 1.
	And you have the highest concentration of people.
	And for Lee Zeldon to have been able to win or have a chance to win, he would have needed 35% of the New York City vote.
	Nearly impossible.
	I mean, you have people voting against what is their own safety and their own security.
	Does it make sense?
	No, it doesn't make sense.
	Some polls were very dead on.
	Some polls were not reliable at all.
	I don't know if we're at the point where polling, you know, its day may have come and gone.
	That's why I had exit polls yesterday.
	They ended up being fairly accurate, but I've had all these years of exit poll data being so dead wrong that I just refuse to look at it and go with it because I don't want people influenced by it.
	And as I was saying all day yesterday, I wanted all of you to think that your vote was the final vote that was going to actually mean something and tip the power in your particular state.
	I kept reinforcing in 2016, Donald Trump, three swing states, won by 70,000 total votes.
	That is a close election.
	In 2020, when you look at Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Joe Biden combined 43,000 votes.
	This is a divided country, and we just have to accept it for what it was.
	That's why I didn't like the wave tsunami talk.
	I thought it was beyond naive and foolish.
	And I kept pointing out these numbers and saying that the only poll that's going to matter is those that vote.
	I'm taking some good things out of this.
	I'm taking some lessons out of this whole thing as well.
	There's got to be some self-reflection.
	And anyway, so the general theme, their strategy seemed to be, you know, to scare the living hell out of people.
	And I told you from the beginning of this election year, this is what Democrats are going to run on.
	They're going to run on Jan 6, and I hate Donald Trump.
	That's what they did.
	They're going to run on the Dobbs decision.
	It played a part according to the exit polls.
	And then, of course, you know, threat to democracy.
	Republicans will take away your Social Security in Medicare.
	Republicans are racist, et cetera, et cetera.
	And I didn't think it would be as effective.
	Maybe it's because I've heard it so often.
	I know it's total BS and I know the media would, you know, run with it.
	You know, but I'm going to go state by state and I want to give you my take on these races and what it all means.
	And I have anecdotally, I think we're in the middle of this country, a mass migration accelerated by two things.
	The baby boomers now becoming retirement, getting to their retirement years, and they want to get the hell out of places like New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania.
	If you look at the Midwest and you look at South Florida, Southwest Florida, and you look at the West Coast of Florida, it's almost all Midwestern.
	And you're talking about people from Wisconsin and Michigan and Illinois and Indiana and other countries.
	You know, you tend to get New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, on the east coast of Florida.
	I don't know why, but that's the way it seems to work out.
	And the numbers are massive.
	And the people that seem to be moving are people that are fed up with big government, high taxes, unbelievable bureaucracy and regulation.
	And not only are they drawn to the weather and the lifestyle, they are drawn to the better services, the fiscal responsibility.
	And you saw that in the numbers for Ron DeSantis and for Marco Rubio yesterday.
	I mean, these were massive landslides.
	Florida is no longer a swing state.
	Neither is Ohio.
	We're seeing a reconfiguration.
	But on the other hand, when all the conservatives seem to be saying, I'm getting the hell out of here, and you're going to have big numbers down in Florida and big numbers in the Carolinas.
	Tim Scott's race was called within minutes.
	And you have people moving to Texas.
	Governor Abbott won by double digits.
	He had big margins down in Texas.
	Then you're going to be left with liberals in states like New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania will go more blue.
	Michigan, more blue, Wisconsin, more blue.
	Illinois is already blue enough.
	And maybe over time, even Indiana, because that's going to happen.
	That now becomes problematic for somebody to win a, you know, win, for example, the presidency for a Republican.
	It was already to the point you had to run the table.
	Now you have to run the table, except the table's odds have gone up 10 more points against you.
	And it's going to be that more difficult.
	It's going to take a lot of things to align for that to happen the way you would want it to happen.
	Anyway, I'm going to break down all these races and tell you about this mass migration out of these states.
	On the West Coast, you see the same thing happening.
	And then we'll get to the idea of why can't we have answers on election night in states like Arizona?
	Why are we still waiting for Nevada?
	Why did they stop counting at 75%?
	Although I think they started counting again.
	And how is it we still have over 400,000 plus, probably maybe closer to 500 or 600,000 votes uncounted in Arizona?
	And by the way, a lot of them, day of voting ballots that would likely favor Republicans.
	Anyway, we'll check in with Kerry Lake.
	She's coming up in the program.
	All right, as we roll along, I want to analyze this state by state because I just think that it's important that we understand what happened last night and what people's expectations were and why I thought they were out of whack and said so.
	I really want to examine what happened down in Florida as a massive blowout.
	We knew it was going to be big.
	Nobody anticipated that big.
	It was huge.
	And I'll start in New Hampshire.
	And I really don't have an explanation for the voters of New Hampshire.
	I just don't.
	This New Hampshire Senate race only really showed up on our radar a few weeks ago.
	Prior to that, it was just assumed that Maggie Hassen had a lock on that race and there were polls showing her six, seven, eight points ahead or whatever.
	And we just didn't even, it's not that we were ignoring it.
	We were watching it, but we didn't think we had a shot here.
	Polls were off by double digits.
	Look, some polling was great.
	Some polling was off by a little.
	Some polling was off by a lot.
	This was off by a lot.
	And I can't explain, how do you explain a double digit win by a fairly conservative governor like Chris Sununu, and then a double-digit win for the U.S. Senate for a hard, left-wing, new Green Deal Democrat like Maggie Hassen?
	And then you look at a candidate.
	Now, granted, he's a novice, but what an incredible resume.
	General Balduck is a nice guy.
	He's maybe he's not a polished politician.
	You know, 10 tours of duty, two purple hearts, five medals of valor.
	And, you know, you just, you're just looking at this and you're saying, that doesn't make sense.
	How do you vote for a Republican here double digits and a Democrat in the Senate double digits?
	I can't explain that part.
	If you can call me, let me know.
	All right, 25 to the top of the hour.
	It is our post-election day analysis, and we got some good news.
	It looks like Adam Laxalt is doing very well in the state of Nevada.
	We expect he's going to be claiming victory pretty soon, that mathematically it's going to be impossible for his opponent to catch up in that race.
	And then we got some encouraging news, and Kyrie Lake will give us more detail later in the show about the state of Arizona, which has at least 400, maybe as much as 600,000 votes outstanding.
	And a lot of those votes were day of, which would favor Republicans by big margins.
	And the weekend before, which would favor Republicans by big margins, we found out that Clark County, heavily Democrat, that would be the Vegas area of Nevada.
	In fact, they don't have the outstanding ballots that would make a difference to help the Democrat overtake Laxalt.
	So he continues his lead.
	That looks like that's going to be fine.
	The state of Georgia has declared a runoff.
	We thought the odds of that were high.
	And so then we have to see if Blake Masters can hold and get a large percentage of the remaining votes that would tend to favor him on paper, but he's got a lot of ground to make up with 90,000 votes, 90,000 vote deficit.
	Harry Lake, on the other hand, again, she joins us later, she's only down by 12,000 votes.
	So I think she's a lot to win based on simple arithmetic and just common sense.
	But I don't want to raise people's expectations.
	I'm just giving you my straightforward analysis.
	So let me go through this a little bit here.
	It looks like the House, not what some people had predicted, but the House is now going to be in the hands of the Republicans.
	We think anywhere between 16 and 20 pickups by the House Republicans.
	Now, this is a huge check on Biden if the Republicans hold together, and they're going to have to.
	It's not going to be an issue.
	They're going to have to hold together and stand as a block against the radical Biden agenda.
	That's all there is to it.
	If they don't do that job, they won't have any chance of winning in 2024.
	I would expect that that's going to be united front for them.
	And I want to go back to some of these races.
	Remember what I was saying, and I said it the last thing yesterday on this prior.
	I said it probably 20 times yesterday on the show.
	When you look at the states that we were talking about, we know Georgia is pretty much now a purple state.
	It is not the Georgia that I knew when I lived there from 92 to 96.
	Cobb County was entirely Republican.
	It's not anymore.
	Gwinnett County is gone blue.
	And of course, you have Fulton County, DeKalb County, all these counties.
	All right.
	So we knew it was going to be a close race.
	Now, some people say, well, we shouldn't have picked Herschel.
	Well, who would have done better?
	You know, there was no alternative that I saw.
	And I think Herschel Walker developed into a phenomenal.
	His trajectory, growth trajectory in this campaign was kind of marvelous to watch and fun to watch.
	And I know he put all the work in, but we knew Pennsylvania would be hard.
	It got harder, and I'll explain why in a minute.
	We knew Georgia would be hard.
	We knew Arizona would be hard.
	We knew Nevada would be hard.
	We were always keeping an eye on Ron Johnson in Wisconsin.
	And I'm going to get to the radicals and why that didn't seem to matter.
	So I don't know why people are wondering why this election was so close or why there were seats that weren't picked up.
	Now, on paper, you can argue, well, Hannity, look at the situation that we're voting under here.
	We're a divided country.
	In other words, you would say, okay, well, Hannity, you're the one that reminds us every day that we have a 41-year high of inflation, record high gas prices.
	We're expecting heating prices of our homes to be up 30% minimum, whether you use gas or oil this winter.
	You're the one that keeps talking about, look at the 4.5 million illegal immigrants that Joe led into the country, the disaster in Afghanistan, the disaster in Europe.
	You're the one that keeps telling us these things.
	You're the one that reminds us about woke education and gender identity education and CRT education and, of course, defund, dismantle, no bail laws.
	You're right, I do.
	I tell you about all of them.
	But I'm going to tell you what's happening here.
	I don't even think one of the main takeaways in this is I think people can interpret in this with all of this is if one thing won yesterday, it was just blind partisanship, that even people would vote against their own best interests as long as it wasn't the Republicans, as long as it wasn't, in some cases, the Democrats.
	And it doesn't make sense.
	Let me take three people.
	It doesn't matter how extreme.
	Here you got a guy, Fetterman, in Pennsylvania, right?
	Fetterman, no restrictions on abortion, moratorium on fracking, legalized drugs, release more convicted murderers than any Senate candidate in history, advocates a third to a half of the prison population be let free in the state of Pennsylvania.
	Taxpayer-funded safe heroin injection sites.
	I want to sue the oil companies.
	I want to sue grocery store CEOs.
	Sanctuary cities, sanctuary states, shotgun incident.
	None of that seemed to matter.
	It didn't matter how extreme Fetterman was.
	It didn't matter.
	Mandela Barnes trashing police officers constantly supporting defunding the police.
	He said police officers in suburban areas are like an occupying force.
	He said police don't prevent crimes from happening.
	Downplayed the riots in Wisconsin on at least seven occasions in 2020.
	Founding member and previously served on a board of an organization that wanted to defund the police, wants to end cash bail, wants to release one half, fully one half of Wisconsin's prison inmates, a notion that he, quote, called sexy.
	I mean, you can't make this up.
	He's part of an administration that released help release 784 inmates classified as violent, including some 44 child rapists, according to reports.
	You know, compared emptying prisons to combating climate change.
	I mean, this guy is a radicals radical, and I can't even begin to go through the rest of it.
	You know, then you got Raphael Warnock, you know, an admirer of Louis Farrakhan, Pidel Castro, Jeremiah Wright, calls police, you know, thugs and gangsters, compares them to such.
	A guy that says America must repent of its whiteness.
	You can't serve in the military and whatever else he said about this.
	He has all of these issues involving the domestic dispute with his wife.
	He has all the issues about obstruction of justice involving a camp that he was running and five instances of real child abuse to varying degrees that took place there.
	Nobody seemed to care.
	This will be an issue, I'm sure, in the runoff.
	I think that Herschel absolutely can win this race if the people of Georgia show up in the numbers that are going to be needed.
	But here's what you have to take out of this.
	Mandela Barnes, John Fetterman, Raphael Warnock are the most radical Democrats I've ever seen run for such a high office in my life.
	All that seemed to matter to the left was that they were Democrats.
	And people are that hardened into their radical partisan positions.
	That to me is a sign of just how divided the country is.
	I'm just voting for Democrats.
	They had no knowledge of what these positions were.
	So I can't really explain that any more deeply than that, is that there's something really, really wrong for Ron Johnson to barely hold on in Wisconsin.
	He's been declared the winner.
	But why was it this close when that guy is so radical in Wisconsin?
	The people in Wisconsin are not that radical.
	They're just not.
	You know, in Pennsylvania, you got a guy just like Joe Biden.
	He hid from the public and the media helped him.
	They were complicit.
	And if you didn't listen to talk radio, if you didn't watch Fox News, you had no idea who John Fetterman was or how insane his positions are.
	The media contribution cover-up is an incalculable donation, in-kind donation to the Democrats as it always is.
	I have another theory.
	Some of you are not going to like hearing this.
	I never heard of Mastriano before.
	I guess he was endorsed in this race.
	I'm like, who is this guy?
	And Linda knew more about him than I did.
	And it ended up being a disaster.
	At one point, he made zero exceptions on the issue of abortion.
	Now, I'm not here to debate abortion with you, but if you don't make exceptions for rape, incest, mother's life, that is, it's just not a winnable, especially in a swing state, purple state like Pennsylvania.
	It's just not, it's, it's not something you're ever going to win on, in my opinion, politically speaking.
	I'm only speaking politically here.
	And, you know, for Oz, you know, what did Mastriano lost by, I think, somewhere around 13 points.
	And Oz actually achieved something pretty uncommon in politics, and that is he achieved double-digit numbers of split ballots.
	In other words, people that would vote for Oz and Shapiro for governor.
	I mean, that is a hard thing to do.
	To get double digits to do it is even harder.
	And in that sense, I think, like unlike other races where, you know, DeWine clearly helped JD Vance.
	Carrie Lake, I think, has been helping Masters.
	You know, I thought Kim could have done a little bit more for Herschel if he wanted to.
	Apparently, he's willing to help in the runoff, which I think would be good.
	That's up to him.
	And then they successfully portrayed Oz as someone that lived in New Jersey, out of touch, cru de té instead of a veggie platter.
	And Oprah turned out not to be a friend of Oz.
	He did the heavy lifting.
	He went to every county.
	It's a tough loss.
	And I think that's the only way that I can explain that.
	Then let's move to a place like Florida.
	You know, go back to Florida, swinging, hanging, pimple, dimpled, Chad's.
	I covered all of this in 2000.
	537 votes in a Supreme Court decision in December of 2000 decides that that race in the state of Florida.
	Then you have problems in 2016 with voting in the state of Florida.
	They cleaned up their act, and they now have one of the most efficient systems of any state with a lot of mail-in voting in the country.
	A lot can be learned from the state of Florida because they did it and they learned to do it right and they learned to do it with integrity and people having confidence in the results.
	There's one other thing I got to add to this, and I mentioned this and touched on this.
	You know, Florida is seeing somewhere around what?
	You know, and by the way, go back to one other thing.
	DeSantis won by 33,000 votes in 2018.
	33,000.
	Rick Scott won by about 10,000, 11,000.
	And now Ron DeSantis wins by 20%.
	Rubio, close to that, what, 17, 18%?
	I don't know what the final number is.
	Now, this, I would argue, helps Florida become more red.
	It's probably helping the Carolinas.
	They call Tim Scott in seconds in South Carolina.
	Ted Budd did great, ran a great campaign in North Carolina.
	But you have this mass migration that has been taking place.
	You got it accelerated by COVID, accelerated by the baby boomers' retirement, and people racing as fast as they can for the exits in states like New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, California.
	Many headed to Florida.
	Florida's taken in, I think I read the last time around 800 new people a day.
	On the east coast of Florida, people tend to be from New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania.
	On the west coast of Florida, they tend to be from the Midwest, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana.
	And that's why Florida is not going to get hurt as bad with this bad economy because it's not going to hurt the real estate market anywhere near the rest of the country, which we have talked at length about.
	That then, for example, now has another effect.
	Lee Zeldon had the perfect issues, the perfect state, ran a great campaign, came within five or six.
	And if this race had taken place 10 years ago, I would argue he would have won because many of the people that would have voted for Zeldon had left.
	They migrated.
	They moved.
	And that's why, you know, you can make the argument there that, wow.
	So, you know, it's maybe not the results you were looking for, but there was a reason that I kept trying hard to manage people's expectations.
	I don't know.
	Did the people really know the positions of John Fetterman in Pennsylvania?
	I don't think so.
	The Democrats voting, I don't think they cared.
	They just wanted a Democrat.
	You know, did they know about him releasing convicted murderers?
	I don't think they cared.
	Do they know about his position on a moratorium on fracking?
	No restrictions on abortion.
	I don't think they cared.
	I think, you know, nobody vetted Barnes.
	If you're not watching Fox or listening to talk radio, you don't know about how radical Mandela Barnes is.
	Looks now he's defeated, but barely.
	You know, Oz lost barely, and he had to have split tickets.
	He had no help from the governor's race like so many others did.
	The GOP did win the House, and we're looking at Adam Laxalt's in a pretty good position as of now.
	I don't like to be Pollyannish and I don't like to overpromise and under deliver, but there is a lot of hope there.
	Carrie Lake, a ton of hope to be the governor of Arizona.
	And Blake Masters is definitely in the hunt for the Senate seat there.
	And Georgia's in a runoff.
	So, you know, there's not everything to be glum about.
	By the way, most Trump candidates won last night, even though they're trashing Donald Trump everywhere.
	It's just interesting.
	You know, the whole thing, I think people's going into this, I felt very strongly.
	Linda, how many times did I warn people?
	Don't get complacent.
	I'm telling you, this is a lot closer than everybody's telling you.
	Was it a broken record or not?

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