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May 18, 2022 - Sean Hannity Show
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Towery and Cahaly - May 17th, Hour 2
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Day number 276.
Hour to Sean Hannity Show.
It is primary day in the great state of North Carolina, Kentucky, Oregon.
And the race we're paying the most attention to is in Pennsylvania, especially on the Senate side of that race where many, well, I think pretty much everybody knows why I'm endorsing Dr. Oz.
Why?
It's simple.
Because it's not because I know him.
It's because of my vetting process.
The same process, probably even harder.
I vetted him harder than I did President Trump.
Many conservatives questioned my conservative credentials when I did support Donald Trump early and got the crap beat out of me.
And it's not that different here, but this is what I do.
I owe it to you to tell you what I know to be true.
And after vetting Dr. Oz, he's pro-life.
He's pro-Second Amendment.
He's pro-energy independence.
This guy is a fighter.
This guy believes in safe and secure borders, border security, energy independence.
He believes in everything I believe.
Not a single thing.
When we went down every issue repeatedly, there wasn't one issue I found disagreement with him on.
Not at all.
Now with the ads, $45 million dumped on his head.
You know, I look at the ads and it's like a totally different person, unrecognizable to me.
But anyway, so we're watching that race very closely.
It's one of the strangest things in all the years I've been doing this, 35 years on radio and 26 and a half years on Fox.
I don't think I ever saw a candidate that wasn't really particularly polling very well all of a sudden have this incredible increase just days out of the election.
And that's the case of Kathy Barnett.
And for the last week, we've reached out to her again and again and again and again and again.
And she only picked up the phone once.
And her answer was about one of like dozens and dozens and dozens of really incendiary and controversial tweets.
That doesn't sound like me.
Were you hacked?
I don't remember.
I got to go.
And then never picked up the phone again.
Then tweets me and says she wants a debate one-on-one with us on TV on Monday.
And I'm like, well, first of all, it's impossible to prepare for an event like that.
You need usually it's months of planning.
I mean, it's not like, oh, let's just show up and have a debate.
No, you got to have lighting.
You got to have a location.
You've got to have, you know, are we going to have an audience or not have an audience?
You got to have cameras and production and everything in between.
You don't just snap your fingers and say, let's have a debate.
Presidential debates, they spend months and months and months and months preparing it.
We're not going to do a half-assed, you know, cable access channel debate.
I work for the Fox News Channel, number one news network in the country.
So I did offer on Twitter if she would accept a debate yesterday if the other candidates would join her.
And she never responded.
Then goes on a radio show on WPHT, our affiliate in Pennsylvania in Philly, and says this morning that I didn't reach out to her.
We reached out to her repeatedly.
Called her, texted her, texted her, called her, called or texted her, and then went publicly on Twitter.
No answer.
Anyway, so the polling has been, Emerson has Oz up by five in the last poll.
Susquehanna, I think, had him up by two.
Matt Towery is with Insider Advantage.
He joins us now with Robert Cahaley of Trafalgar.
Need I remind both of you, all of you, that both of them have been accurate in 2016, 2020.
They've been accurate as it relates to the Senate runoffs in Georgia.
They told me in late November there's no way that Republicans are going to win either of those runoff races, either of them.
And they turned out to be, unfortunately, right.
And we're here to talk about not only Pennsylvania, but North Carolina, Kentucky, and Oregon.
And welcome both of you back to the program.
Thank you.
You're happy to be with you.
All right, let's start with you, Matt Towery.
Where do you see this race in Pennsylvania today?
Well, we polled it for the Fox affiliate in Philadelphia about a week and a half ago.
And at that point, Oz was enjoying a slight lead.
Robert actually caught the rise of Barnett because he polled it more often weeks before that.
We caught the rise of Barnett when we polled.
And we saw also that she had moved up very quickly.
She came up primarily for two reasons, Sean.
One, because she had an interesting response to an issue related to her past personal history that struck a chord with pro-life voters.
And then you also had a lot of funding come in from what I would consider to be sort of anti-Trump groups that saw the opportunity to push her up and try to put her ahead of Dr. Roz simply, I think, to spite President Trump.
Right now, I see the race with Oz having a lead.
It's not going to be massive.
Barnett has been moving up, but she sort of stalled out the last few days.
And so we're thinking, my guess would be that you'll see that Trump bump come into place that we've bought to be somewhere between 4% and 6% that we don't think shows up in the polls.
Robert can tell you more about that.
He sort of quantified it.
We think when you put that in there, Oz is likely to win, but it's going to be a very tight race tonight.
And you never know when you're dealing with places like Philadelphia and other cities and Pennsylvania, just like Georgia and others.
You never know what could happen.
Yeah, great.
That's always fun news to hear.
Your take, Robert Cahaly.
Yeah, like Matt was saying, we actually saw this lady coming on March 13th with our first polling that we had her in third place and barely in third place, just a point out of second.
So, I mean, this is what happens when two of these vehicles, these guys just come back and forth with each other with this kind of money, and she remains untouched and unscrutinized.
And so what you've seen is she's had a meteoric rise with nobody really kind of messing with her.
She had a great debate the same week as the leaked decision.
And here she's talking about her background and being born to a mother who's a victim of rape.
I mean, it was a perfect storm for her to start to ascend.
What did happen, though, is the two campaigns got together and both sides seem to be Oz and McCormick seem to be really putting some heat on her the last few days.
And we do see her kind of that momentum has slowed.
But it has been very tight between Barnett and Oz the entire weekend through yesterday with Oz having the slightest of edges and with the possibility of there'll be a little bit of a Trump bump that we think does exist.
I think that plus the edge that Oz has picked up that should be what it takes to keep him ahead.
But it could very well be tight and knowing that we could have 150,000 absentees to be counted, depending upon when they count them, depends on when we know something.
Let's talk about now the things that have come out in the last seven days as it relates to Kathy Barnett.
And if she were the nominee, do you think Matt Towery, she is in any way electable?
Well, you never say never.
I think she is the least electable of the three candidates who have been buying for that top position.
Well, the least electable by a long shot or the least electable by just a little?
No, the least electable to the point that it would be very hard to handicap that as being a Republican win in Pennsylvania.
That would sort of be, I know, admittedly, you don't know what the other side's going to do.
You know, you've got a problem.
There's an illness.
Of course, he's one of the things that you're going to do.
Okay, but you read the tweets about Trump, so that's going to anger Republican voters and Trump supporters.
You've read the tweets.
All the incendiary tweets that she doesn't recall ever writing.
Go ahead.
Well, my view is that she is the least electable of the three.
And in all probability, I would not see a Republican win in the fall if she gets the nomination.
That would be my view.
Robert Cahaley, your thoughts?
I think very much the same thing.
I think we all understand that Pennsylvania is not the kind of place that you want to put a Republican who just barely wins in November.
I think barely winning doesn't mean a lot in Pennsylvania.
You need somebody who can run up the score.
And I do not think she's in that position, nor, for that matter, do I think McCormick's in that position?
I think Oz's unique appeal to people who do not consider themselves Republicans or Democrats, just kind of people who judge an individual.
They built a trust and a relationship with him on television for all these years.
And I think he is in the position to win big enough that it will be hard for that victory not to emerge.
So the William F. Buckley adage, if you will, Robert, that you find the most conservative person that can win, and that's who you should support applies here.
Yes, except for in Pennsylvania, I would say win and win big.
And win and win big, right.
How important, Matt Towery, was Donald Trump's endorsement in this race, in your view?
Well, I thought it was critical.
By the way, how unimportant is my endorsement ever?
But go ahead.
Your endorsement's probably obviously it's becoming increasingly important by the day, according to Kathy Barnett.
Apparently, I heard some tape.
I'll play it later.
Yeah.
So anyway, you know, Trump's endorsement is critical in Pennsylvania because Dr. Oz, for all the positives that he has, he is entering politics as a brand new candidate coming off a very successful run, of course, on television.
So he had that going for him.
But Trump gave Oz sort of the political chops to be able to get into this from the beginning.
And I think it's been critical for Oz in the last few weeks, especially as he's seen first the McCormick group sort of come after him, and then, of course, Kathy Barnett making some surge.
Trump has been, I think, the major component that has allowed Oz to remain at the level.
And I noticed this from our polling and also from Roberts.
Oz never went below a certain level.
He has a ceiling, but he has a floor.
And he never goes above that floor.
And I suspect his ceiling is going to be above what it's been showing in the polls.
By the way, that kept him in the lead the entire time.
I've never seen a poll where he wasn't leading.
Yeah, we haven't had a single poll.
We had a couple of nights where maybe he would slip back and forth.
But overall, in all of the polls, when you got through with it all, he was always in the lead.
And I think that was critical in these last three weeks rather of this race, especially.
Yes.
Well, let's talk about the Trump bump that Matt mentioned, Robert Cahaley.
Yeah, I think what we've determined in watching it, you know, we found in 2016 what we called silent, you know, hidden, silent Trump voters.
And these were people who just didn't want to kind of give you the straight scoop where they were in a poll.
What we saw in 2020 is a different phenomenon.
They just decided they didn't want to participate in polls.
They'd seen the polls be so skewed.
They just figured, hey, it's nobody's business who I'm for.
Lots of questions when you call them about, well, what are you going to do with information?
You know, how do you keep my name out of it?
People just don't want to be doxed.
They don't want to be criticized, and they just want to go about their business.
So they're going to show up.
They're going to vote for Trump.
And they're really hard to poll because they don't like entering polls.
So we think that number is between three and probably four and a half in a Republican primary, a little more in a general election.
I mean, it was shocking.
The bump that JD Vance got in Ohio was incredible.
When we come back, we'll talk a little bit about Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon, and any other race that you think is interesting or important.
Then next week, it's going to be Georgia, and I think Herschel Walker will do well.
Not sure what's going to happen in the Purdue Kemp race.
I think Kemp is up, but there's talk that there might be a runoff.
If that's the case, that would be interesting.
As we roll along, 800-941-SHAWN is her number.
You want to be a part of the program or pollsters, Matt Towery, and also Robert Cahaley, Robert with Trafalgar, Insider Advantage is Matt Towery's group.
All right, in Kentucky, later on, we have Rand Paul at the top of the next hour.
I would imagine he has an easy run.
I don't even know the names of any primary opponents.
Rand is very popular, rightly so, in Kentucky.
We're supporting him.
You see any issues in Kentucky, either one of you?
None.
None.
I don't see any either, Robert.
So I haven't bothered talking about it much.
You know, there's too many races that do matter, that are closer.
Sometimes it feels like Rand Paul is speaking for the entire country, but we know he's speaking for Kentucky.
He'll win easily.
What about Bud in North Carolina?
Looks like he's headed to victory.
Any thoughts on that, Robert?
Last time we checked him, he was over 50.
North Carolina has a very peculiar rule that you're going to have to be over 30 to avoid a runoff.
So I think he's going to clear that bar.
What do you think, Matt Towery?
I totally Totally agree.
Totally agree.
Do you both agree with me on this statement that if Republicans lose Pennsylvania, if they're crazy enough to go with Kathy Barnett, who's going to get eviscerated in a general election, that the odds of Republican control of the Senate go down dramatically?
Do you both agree with that statement?
I certainly do.
Let me just say this, Sean.
What we have going on right now in these primaries, both in Pennsylvania coming up in Georgia, you have a very large below-the-radar screen attempt to try to damage Donald Trump in the 11th hour when he could actually deliver a majority of Republicans for the U.S. Senate and for other races as well.
And it's clear to me.
I think it's been clear to Robert.
And I don't think it's going to work in Pennsylvania.
Now, when it comes to Georgia and the governor's race, that could be a different matter.
But it's certainly going on.
And that's why you're seeing the surge at the last minute in the money behind Barnett to try to knock off Oz.
Your take, Robert.
What's really fascinating is everyone, you know, the running line was Trump will probably endorse people who can't win in the fall, and that'll be his legacy.
He's done exactly the opposite of these races.
He's picked people with the best chance to win in the fall, and people who don't seem to care about the fall are willing to beat him at all costs.
You know, pretty unbelievable times.
This never Trumper movement or try and sabotage Trump's primary picks.
He made the right call with Oz and PA.
And I've made my own vetting on this, and I put my own conservative credentials on the line on this.
But ultimately, it comes down to the voters.
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Three times a week, we do our podcast, Verdict with Ted Cruz.
Nationwide, we have millions of listeners.
Every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, we break down the news and bring you behind the scenes inside the White House, inside the Senate, inside the United States Supreme Court.
And we cover the stories that you're not getting anywhere else.
We arm you with the facts to be able to know and advocate for the truth with your friends and family.
So down a verdict with Ted Cruz now, wherever you get your podcasts.
This is the Sean Hannity Show.
All right, 25 now to the top of the hour, 800-941, Sean is on number.
All right, so this is from PennsylvaniaLive.com.
PennLive.com is the website.
Headline, Lancaster County reports big mail-in ballot problem.
Significant number of the ballots did not scan.
I'm like, you can't make this up.
County Board of Elections were supposed to begin counting mail-in ballots at 7 a.m. today, reducing the log jam of vote counting issues when the PA primary election polls closed this evening.
But in Lancaster County, and I'm reading directly from PennLive.com, was a big problem.
Upon opening and scanning the first batch of ballots, it became immediately apparent that a significant number of the mail ballots did not scan.
A county press release stated upon further inspection of the ballots, the county identified the ballots were printed by the mail ballot vendor, NPC.
I have no idea who they are.
With the wrong ID code, the error prevents the ballots from being scanned on the county central scanners.
The county board added there was no way of knowing about the issue before they began opening mail-in ballots.
This morning, the incorrect printing by the vendor was after the election staff approved MPC's test ballots, which had the correct ID code.
The county board statement read: quote, those ballots scanned properly during the county's logic and accuracy test prior to the mailing of any ballots to voters.
Thus, there was no way for the county to discover this vendor error prior to 7 a.m. on election day when the law requires mail ballots to be first open.
Despite it all, the election office insisted it would press ahead and count all the ballots, stating in this press release, quote, after conferring with both major political parties, the staff recommended process to correct the issue will involve remarking, remarking, and scanning all affected ballots.
This is the process used in the 2021 primary election when the previous mail ballot vendor printed the ballots incorrectly.
This is insane.
The county board said election integrity remains paramount concern, stating running fair, secure elections is a sacred trust.
The Board of Elections will do everything possible to ensure that this problem is resolved in a transparent, secure way.
Any steps taken to be transparently observed by both major political parties, representatives from the campaigns, by the media, the County Board of Election called a press conference for this afternoon to further discuss and explain the mail-in ballot issues.
To share your observations as you visit your polling place today, please email PennLive reporter John whatever his name is.
They give his address.
Tell us your name, age, party affiliation, along with what issues are driving your decision and what message you hope to send with your vote.
Stay with Penn Live throughout the primary election day for the latest from central polling, Pennsylvania polling places.
And when the polls close at 8 p.m., stick with Penn Live for real-time results as your ballot is counted and the vote totals roll in.
Jeff Lord is with us, friend of this program for a long time, dear personal friend.
How are you?
Hello, my friend, Sean.
Well, I guess, you know, I'll tell them I'm 21 and I've never voted.
How's that?
You think they'll buy that?
I don't want to laugh because it's too serious.
Well, it is.
You know, I voted this morning around 10 o'clock.
The turnout here in my precinct was fairly light.
That will doubtless increase as the day goes on.
But here's the real problem with this story out of Lancaster County.
And I went to Franklin Marshall College in Lancaster, so I spent a fair share of time there.
Lancaster County, which is fairly good size, is the Republican heartland without question.
And so if this problem turns out to be unresolved, the people who should be the most nervous about this are all the Republican candidates for both senator and governor.
Because if they think that they're going to run away with something or make significant progress by getting Republican votes in Lancaster, which is, of course, totally normal thing to think, then, wow, this could throw a real monkey wrench in things.
So, you know, it's a lot of people.
I would imagine, and I have reached out to people, sources I have on the ground, and apparently every campaign has somebody there, and they're like apoplectic about it.
Yes, I'm sure they are.
I'm sure they are.
You really can't blame them, right?
I mean, you know, Linda and I both live here in Pennsylvania, Linda in the eastern side, and I right here in the middle.
And you know, this place is just, you know, consumed with these two elections.
There are signs all over the place, yard signs.
I mean, just going through my own neighborhood, there are yard signs for every imaginable candidate for senator and governor.
People are really tuned into this.
Let me ask you this question.
With the sudden rise of Barnett in this race and then finding out all these controversial and crazy things that she said and tweeted, has that knowledge gotten into the Republican primary voter bloodstream that people are very aware of the things that she has said and the things she's tweeted?
I think it may.
I mean, I've moderated two Senate debates in a governor's debate.
And in each case in the Senate debates, she did extremely well.
As a matter of fact, at the Pennsylvania Leadership Conference, which is sort of the state version of CPAC, she won the straw poll.
This was about a month ago.
So she's very popular.
Now, one of the things that I think may backfire on her now is that she has said if she doesn't win, she's not going to support the winner.
Well, you know, I just don't think that's going to go over well with a lot of people.
You know, they want, they expect team play here, particularly since this is so important and the winner is going to need every last bit of support.
Do you think enough people have come to the conclusion that in a general election that all of this is going to be just they're going to hammer her with all of these comments?
I mean, I'm not sure that they have, Sean.
I'm not sure that this is, and, you know, you've been talking about this a lot.
As a matter of fact, I heard her on another show today mention you.
Oh, actually, we have that clip, but we're going to play it later.
Yeah.
But I'm not sure that this has sunk in with a lot of folks around here at this point.
You know, I mean, Sean, it's the topic.
Has it sunk into half of the Republican primary voters?
I mean, is it 33% that likely no?
The 33% that what?
You know, what percentage of Republican primary voters are going to be fully aware of this unvetted candidate and what she has said and tweeted?
You know, I don't know many Republicans that want a statue for Barack Obama.
Do you?
Yeah, no, no.
I mean, I think as the realization dawns of the things she said here, the question is, has this gotten through?
And, you know, it's the same old story, Sean.
Every election, you've got people, you know, unlike geeks like me that pay attention to this 24-7.
You know, people are living their lives, right?
They've got kids to feed, kids to get to school.
They've got work, et cetera.
So, I mean, I talked to somebody in a business the other day when I was in there for something, and she told me she hadn't even focused on the election, on who's on the ballot or what the issues were.
And this was a couple weeks ago.
Well, that's not very.
Listen, we live, eat, and breathe, and sleep, though, so that's not particularly uncommon.
All right, any predictions?
What do you think is going to happen in the Senate race?
I would give the edge to Dr. Oz at this point, but it's only an edge.
I mean, listening to your pollsters and everything.
I mean, Sean, in truth, this could go any way.
I think I saw a poll that said that there were about 34% undecided in the Senate race.
Wow.
It's going to get interesting.
Do you think, based on what you know about Kathy, that she could win a general election?
Because I think it's next to nil.
Possible?
Sure.
Anything's possible.
Well, the one thing that she might have going for is her presumed opponent, John Fetterman.
Yeah, that's everybody's, you know, whoever wins this nomination, I would argue short of her would beat her probably pretty easily.
Yeah, yeah.
I mean, if she were faithful to say Connor Lamb, who's not going to win, the Democratic thing, you know, a moderate Democrat, et cetera, he would clobber her.
I'm not so sure about John Fetterman because he's got his own problems.
I mean, he's an out-and-out socialist, for one thing.
And, you know, he might have some problems.
And again, you know, I've studied these things.
These red wave elections come along in the first terms of presidents and have since at least Harry Truman.
I mean, I've gone back and taken a serious look at this, and they get clobbered.
You know, slogans from Republicans like had enough in 1946 or the Newt Gingrich wave.
I mean, these are not unusual.
What happened to Bill Clinton?
Ronald Reagan got clobbered in 1982.
So there's every reason to expect two things here.
Number one, the pattern will hold and that Joe Biden will get defeated.
But then, two, there's Joe Biden's personal problem situations here with inflation and the economy and Ukraine and the combination of those two can make it deadly for any Democrat.
Jeff Lord, we love you.
Thanks for checking in, giving us an update.
Appreciate it.
Okay, my friend, stay tuned.
Yeah, Brad in Pennsylvania.
Brad, did you vote today?
Brad, how are you?
Yeah, Sean, sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
Can you hear me?
No worries.
What's up?
I can hear you fine.
Yeah, I'm sorry, Sean.
I couldn't vote.
I'm stuck here.
I'm a truck driver, so I'm stuck in the traffic all day.
I just couldn't get a chance to go and vote, man.
But I wanted to really thank you for all you do, man.
Seriously.
I just have, I'm very frustrated.
I just have something to tell you, man.
Like, I don't understand that why Ted Cruz and these conservatives can't back Trump.
I just don't understand that.
Why they have to go with McCormick?
I don't get it.
I mean, this is why that's what's going to happen.
I guess I have no idea.
I just, I did my own vetting.
I didn't know.
I've never met Dave McCormick until after I long supported Oz.
Seemed like a nice guy.
If you notice, I've never said a bad word about him.
But with that said, putting Cruz out of this, it's not him, but there are groups of people that are now actively undermining every Trump-endors candidate.
I can tell you that.
We have a bit of a bad connection, though, Brad.
God bless you.
Thanks for checking in.
Don Lake Ron Concomo.
What's up, big Don?
Welcome aboard.
Hey, Sean.
Great to talk to you again.
Yeah, you know, I got to thank you for giving candidates your podium to vet themselves.
And I enjoyed listening to Dr. Oz.
You know, he demonstrates such a confidence to get things done.
And I can't think of anything bad about him.
And over the years, I've seen him on television.
His record's been very, very good.
Look, he got clobbered with $40 plus million dollars of negative ads, and I didn't recognize the guy that I know.
And, you know, you remember because you were with us.
And when I first went out early for Trump, I was getting the crap kicked out of me every day.
Oh, yeah.
But I stood by my guns because I owe this audience what I know to be true.
And I knew the truth was Trump would govern as a strong conservative.
And he did.
You've always been fair to whoever wanted to come on your show.
And you reach out.
It's not like you're waiting for that.
I would have put Kathy on yesterday.
She was willing to come on.
I would have put her on.
And she never got back to us.
She won't return our calls.
She won't return our texts.
Well, I like Dr. Oz.
He seems to be pro-energy, pro-life, pro-guns.
Make America great.
And you know what?
I really enjoyed early on during the pandemic.
You had Dr. Oz on, not as a candidate, as a doctor.
And he questioned these crazy COVID mandates.
And he questioned the school shutdowns.
He said anecdotally, the only thing we got is HCQ at the time, and he got clobbered for it.
Just for coming on my show, he got the crap kicked out of him, but he wouldn't stop because the health issue meant too much to him, and he knew the reach of this program.
Okay, well, here's another attribute that I really admire about him.
He's got courage to keep coming back.
That's true.
Courage and confidence.
I can't, listen, I can't say it strongly enough.
He is a make America great again, save America, America first conservative.
That's why I supported Trump.
It's why I support Dr. Oz in this race.
We love you, Don.
We got a roll.
Appreciate the call.
Sharon in Texas, we got a minute for you.
You get the podium.
Go ahead.
Hi, Sean.
I'm in Texas, but I listened to all three candidates following the Pennsylvania race, and they were on Play and Buck Show today, preceding your show.
And I heard all three candidates, and I have to say this about Kathy Barnett.
She talks like she has a chip on her shoulder, and she doesn't like you.
And she said something like, example of one of the things she said.
I was on Sean Hennedy's show seven times before Oz ever showed up.
So she's just got her whole train of thought and rhetoric.
Woz was on a lot more.
Person, I liked her when she was on, but I had no idea that she said and tweeted all this crazy crap.
I mean, in my view, in a general election, makes her nearly, it makes it nearly impossible we would lose that seat.
I think the odds of us losing that seat would be way too high to risk it.
Because Democrats will take every one of those tweets, every one of those statements, and they will counter with that.
Yeah, I mean, if I did, I would say so.
Not at all.
You're right.
You read her right.
She's not alone.
And I don't believe the story that, oh, that doesn't sound like me, even though it's on my Twitter feed.
Then why didn't you go to Twitter and say I was hacked?
And then she won't admit that she won't even say she's hacked.
So you just, you can't have it both ways here.
There's some level of dishonesty in my eyes.
Doesn't meet my smell test.
But ultimately, that's up to the people in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.
I strongly recommend Oz, but you will decide and you will get the government you deserve.
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