Join "The Best of Hannity" on a journey through the spring polling season as Sean interviews several pollsters about the future of President Trump. Remember the Summer of 2015 when everyone had written President Trump's campaign off as dead... are the polls are telling a similar story now?The Sean Hannity Show is on weekdays from 3 pm to 6 pm ET on iHeartRadio and Hannity.com. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
I got to make sure I get the the new the Wilmington newspaper here before I major I'll be dead.
Last question, real quick.
Some have speculated that you are subject to some degree of cognitive decline.
I'm 65.
I don't have word recollection that I used to have.
I forget my train of thought from time to time.
You got 12 years on me, sir.
Are have you been tested for some degree of cognitive decline?
I've been testing on constantly tested.
Look, all you all I got to do is watch me, and I can hardly wait to compare my cognitive capability to the cognitive capability of the man I'm running against.
Unchain Wall Street.
It's a long way until November.
We got more questions.
You got more questions, but I tell you that if you have a problem figuring out whether you're Premier Trump and you ain't black.
Okay, that's Joe Biden.
Uh then we got the whole segregation integration, bussing uh issue, support of Robert King KK Bird issue.
By the way, none of those questions came up.
But, you know, um I'm glad to know that we now have a message from Joe, and that is Joe gets the every week forgetful Joe.
He gets a cognitive test regularly.
That that is so reassuring to me.
Uh all right.
So we've been hearing from the mob, the media, all about the polls, the polls, the polls.
Now there was another poll that came out yesterday that I don't think anybody reported that had the president winning in Wisconsin uh over Joe Biden by one point.
Um, certainly within the margin of error, but that poll is out there too.
Uh I've seen other polls by people I respect that are not quite matching up to the polls of of some of the quote news organizations.
And you know, I I find a lot of problems uh with those polls, but being 125 days away from uh election day when you become the ultimate jury.
What do these polls mean?
If anything, John McLaughlin, pollster strategist, Matt Towery, syndicated columnist, attorney, pollster.
We dragged him out of retirement.
He tried to retire.
We dragged him right back in.
He's never gonna retire.
Um welcome back, both of you.
Uh okay, Matt, we'll start with you.
Uh you've been very cued into, as John has been, the the flawed methodology of of polling.
Uh, but with that said, in my mind, I I always like to think that we're down by six.
It's the two-minute drill.
Uh a Republicans always got to run the table and win Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, pick off Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin and hopefully Minnesota, old Arizona, maybe take Nevada, New Mexico, and don't forget about New Hampshire and the congressional district number two in Maine.
So that's where my mind is right now.
Well, you covered it.
I mean, you've got the states.
Uh, you know, my thought is this.
We we talked last time.
I I'm not going to pretend that the polling it's relatively speaking has shifted in a more precarious uh direction uh for the president.
Uh not going to say that it means he would lose.
Um what I will say is I usually give Donald Trump on average three points uh for any poll, no matter how flawed or great the the poll is.
And three points to him means three points from the other candidate.
So that's a six-point spread.
Because I don't I happen to believe there are very few undecided in this country.
We see undecided, but that I think you really just have a shift from one side to another.
That said, I think I think the president is I want to make this point because I'm I I'm preaching this over and over again.
The president is not running against uh uh Biden.
That's very clear.
If he were running against Biden, and this were a regular year, we'd have headlines today saying Biden says he's tested constantly for his cognitive abilities.
We have none of those.
He's running, as you point out over and over again, against the media in this country.
And I think the one thing that has to happen is the paid advertising from the campaign and all the groups that support him need to be pointing out the reality of the world that Donald Trump's live lives in because they're not getting it from most of these media sources.
And uh the point being exactly what you said Played earlier about the cognitive testing.
He made that statement.
That would have been a huge issue had Donald Trump said it.
And Eric Trump said that last night on your show.
But it's not an issue at all for this media.
So someone else is going to have to educate the public as we go to the to the last quarter of this of this battle.
To finish my analogy, you know, for the Republican to win, the two-minute drill, no timeouts, that means you got to cross the plane.
Linda does not know what that means.
Uh and then kick the extra point to win John McLaughlin.
And I think Matt is right, the single biggest contributor is going to be the mob, the media.
They're all in.
Yes.
I mean, they have they they want more than anything to defeat Donald Trump.
Yes.
And four years ago, remember, we were the only ones saying he could win.
We said it on your show.
I mean, all the polls, but this is like deja vu all over again.
If you go back to the Real Clear Politics website, there's a hundred and seventy-three polls from May of 2016 to election day, national polls.
Trump was only winning in 13 out of 173 polls.
At this point in time, the Washington Post had us down ten points nationally.
They gave us only on the Real Clear Politics site, only 164 electoral votes.
Guess what?
In October, they didn't get any better because they're doing the same polls of adults, registered voters, not likely voters, they're not using voter lists, they're just randomly calling people.
And guess what they had four years ago?
In October 13th, NBC had Clinton up 11.
October 14th, Boston College, you should stick to football.
Had it up, had uh Clinton up 10.
Monmouth College had Clinton up, this is October 16th up 12.
ABC on October 23rd, 12.
October 24th, the AP had Clinton up 14.
And on election day, the New York Times 538 gave Hillary a chance.
85% she was going to win.
The exit polls came out wrong.
You had you had Frank Lunz on your show saying on election day we were going to lose or it was it was in Times Square, and it was about, I think a little after 6 p.m. on election day.
Yes, sir.
He said it was over and Trump lost.
Right.
And and we're on your show saying, no, we can if we get the vote out.
Like you said, we sent him to five or six cities a day.
He campaigned from 6 a.m. to midnight, and the president left no vote unturned, and we won a very close election.
Uh 78,000 votes out of 139 million, a record turnout, and we won 44,000 in 46,000 in Pennsylvania, 22,000 in Wisconsin, 10,000 in Michigan, and we won.
Four years ago, they didn't think we could win.
They so they were believing their own bad propaganda.
This time, they are afraid Donald Trump can win, and they are trying to suppress our votes so that we give up.
It's the same bad polls, it's deja vu all over again.
The only difference is the media is doubling down, and they are working like the press campaign or the press secretaries for Joe Biden right now.
It's never been this bad.
And you know, the question is, as I said, you gotta thread a needle if you're a Republican to win a pr the presidency, because you start out, you start without the what, 54 or five electoral votes in California, and and you're not gonna win Washington State or Oregon, and you're not gonna win uh Illinois and New Jersey and New York.
That's a lot of electoral votes right there, and you got a lot of states you gotta hold, Matt Towery.
Um it's n it it is never going to be easy.
And at this point, uh one question you said it's not gonna be about Joe Biden, but the country is already saying in the Zogby poll, and I believe it was the Rasmussen poll that came out yesterday.
It was in the Washington Examiner that they believe the that Joe Biden has dementia.
Those are that's what that's what the poll is asking.
Well, that's interesting because let me just say this.
So I constantly people say, oh, why did Trump say this?
Why did he say that?
Let me make it clear.
This is the best presidential candidate that I in my lifetime, certainly in my adult lifetime when I've dealt with him in the past or whatever, he is the best I have ever seen.
The the important thing is that his message has to be broadcast beyond just Donald Trump.
And people have to understand the context from which he is reacting because they're not getting the real word and the real news.
But to to to to the point that John made, elections are about turnout.
And that's why John and I were predicting Trump would win that day when no one else was.
And it's why you uh you, Sean, believe that what we were saying was right, because you know they're a function of turnout.
I think there's a certain percentage of people who will not tell pollsters they're gonna vote for Donald Trump and certainly in this environment, they are probably saying the complete opposite because they're talking to a live interviewer, it's on a cell phone, they don't know who they don't know what the context is, and they're quite frankly afraid.
You know, I I understand and I believe all of that, but I think when you know when you think of all that they've done to bloody up this president and the lies, the smear, slander, besmirchment, character assassination, the conspiracy theory, the the hoax, the impeachment.
Um it's been an awful lot to deal with, and then add the worst pandemic since 1918, uh John McLaughlin and you know the he's they'll never get credit for saving New York and New Jersey and Pennsylvania.
Um because none of those states did anything except put old people in harm's way.
Um it's frustrating uh on a lot of levels.
I cannot, and I don't think anybody can say with any certainty, although it would be great to see the media choke on the words we can now project that Donald J. Trump has been re-elected the 45th president of the United States, that would be worth the price of admission.
Absolutely, and by the way, when I repeated a similar litany to the president and told him his base was still rock solid, with over ninety percent of the Republicans voting for him, a forty-six percent likely voter national approval, he said to me one thing, he said, and you left out they tried to impeach me for two years.
So i considering everything he's gonna say.
I hate to say I hate to correct the president, but it's really been a four-year campaign.
Yes, absolutely, absolutely.
But but when you think about it, by the way, the issues are uh he's got courage and the issues are trending his way.
In that national poll I just mentioned to you, we did a poll for Secure America now, and we asked him, do you think defunding the local police is a good idea or a bad idea?
The majority of Americans said bad idea, 5730.
And guess what the New York City Council decided to do yesterday?
And that included, by the way, 43% Democrats, 34 African Americans, 48% of Hispanics, bad idea.
And the key is do you think defunding local police would cause crime to increase?
And that went across the board by every political party, every ideology, including fifty-three percent of liberals, and forty-seven percent of African Americans, 69% of Hispanics.
I mean, what are they thinking?
And they're handing Donald Trump this issue, and he's tweeting out on it today, because he's gonna stand behind law enforcement and he's gonna make us feel safe.
Joe Biden won't.
Joe Biden won't stand up.
He hasn't that press conference you were talking about, the travel ban in China, they never asked him about it.
He's criticizing the president for coronavirus and never mentions that he was against banning travel from China.
They don't ask him where he stands on defunding the police.
And guess what?
The when he said he goes through testing all the time, they didn't ask him to release any cognitive tests.
Because he knows if it's that testing or other testing he's got, but he doesn't probably remember either.
Uh stay right there.
Our pollsters, Matt Towery, John McLaughlin, eight hundred nine four uh eight hundred nine four.
One Sean, you want to be a part of the program.
All right, as we continue our polls, Matt Towery and uh John McLaughlin are are with us.
All right, so Americans are deeply unhappy with the state of the the nation.
You know, we're struggling with a pandemic, economic recession, anarchy.
Uh we saw what happened to the Chop Chaz Summer of Love Spaghetti Potluck Dinner Zone.
I guess the mayor didn't like it when all of these uh anarchists showed up at her house.
Oh, now all of a sudden she has shifted her tone, and look what happened today.
Um those issues, there's such a distinction between them, John McLaughlin.
It did this is the biggest choice election in our lifetime.
Absolutely, and it's it's probably the biggest since the Civil War.
And and when you think about it, what happened in Seattle was tragic because the mayor acted because a sixteen-year-old boy was shot.
Uh happened to be an African American boy was shot by these guards in this in this Chaz zone.
And no one is no one is out there rioting or looting or anything like that if this poor boy died, and no one is calling for a civil rights investigation, but the Department of Justice ought to send their people in to make sure that's done.
And in the meantime, they're out there still wanting to take Boston wants to take down a statue of Abraham Lincoln.
I mean, Abraham Lincoln, if they can change the values and history of this country, I mean, uh th they're trying to destroy it.
And President Trump is standing up to make sure we have a country left.
It's very important.
Yeah.
Matt, what your take on it.
My take is this, you know, everything John is saying is true, and and we find how ironic it is, how out of step it is.
I think the one point that I'm continue to make is is that if most Americans who look at scant amounts of news media that they get off of social media, some watch the network, some watch, some read some papers, but not a lot.
If they're looking at everything through the prism of the biased media that we all discussed at the beginning of this, a lot of this they're never going to hear.
So one of the things I advocate for if the for the present people who support it is that they become the news media.
Someone in this country has to counterbalance what these people are seeing, whether it's the PACs or the campaign or whatever, so that they see the news of what of the reality that's happening.
I think once they're in the reality of Donald Trump, they'll certainly understand why the president's taking the positions he is.
The law and order and the like, it's so necessary, but it's necessary we educate the public, and we got about 130 something days, 140 days to do it.
Actually, it's 125, but I don't who's counting.
What's you know, a few days among friends?
You know, if you're a Democrat, it's 140.
If you're a Republican, it's 125.
Uh just kidding.
Hannity suppresses vote.
I can see the articles now.
Uh all right, Matt Towery, John McLaughlin, thank you both.
People say all the time, oh, we got to get the vice president out of the basement.
He's fine in the basement.
Two people see him a day, his two body people.
That's that.
And let Trump keep doing what Trump's doing.
It's hard for the vice president to break through.
You know, the rapidly rising uh um uh in with uh with uh I don't know uh uh I'm beginning to get bored by my own talk here.
I came back from law school and Dr. King was assassinated.
And when he came I came back, my city is the only city in America occupied by the National Guard since Reconstruction, because a significant portion was burned to the ground.
I came back, got a job with a good law firm, and I quit and became a public defender.
But even Dr. King's assassination did not have the worldwide impact that George Floyd's death did.
All right, hour two, Sean Hannity show, those comments uh made by Biden.
Uh, even Dr. King's assassination did not have the worldwide impact of George that George Floyd's death did.
Um and then him saying I'm bored by my own talking, and of course, Terry McCullough saying he's just fine being in the base.
He only sees two people a day, it's perfect.
That's this is the perfect candidate, especially Joe, the forgetful one who puts his foot in his mouth every five seconds.
Now, uh I may sound a little hypocritical here by saying, well, I don't believe polls at this point, and I don't even know if we know exactly what the actual issues are that will propel uh people to the polls uh in 145 days.
I don't think anybody can accurately in any way, shape, manner, or form predict all of that.
Um, but I will tell you that you know, the anecdotal evidence that I shared with you from Newsweek in the last hour about how many people showed up in Georgia to vote for him versus the polls, the last eight of them, just having Trump up uh by forty-five uh 45-5 to 44 over Biden, and then you see, you know, record shattering people going to the polls, he gets more people in a primary vote uncontested than all the Democratic candidates combined.
Anecdotally, is that something that we can look at?
Um I think it's I think it's absolutely something.
If the June 5th Rasmussen poll is true, and that being that the president has a 40% approval rating among African Americans, uh that would be fairly dramatic also.
Anyway, we bring in our polsters or experts, uh John McLaughlin, uh Matt Tower, and Scott Raspuzen.
Scott, let me first I mentioned your poll on June 5th.
Uh, have you updated that particular demographic, African Americans, because you had the president at a 40% approval rating with them.
Well, actually, Sean, that was my old company.
You know, I left there seven years ago.
So my my polling does not show the president uh is doing that well among African Americans.
He's about uh fifteen percent among African Americans in terms of the city.
Fifteen is almost double what he got in 2016, and that's your most recent.
By the way, how do you how do you sell your company with your name on it and you still have another polling company?
It's a little odd.
Well, you know, I the there's a passage of time in between.
You sit out for a non-compete and you move on.
It does create a little bit of confusion.
Uh Sorry about that, but uh, but I'm very happy with the work I'm doing now.
And uh, you know, it's it's something that I I don't comment on the polls by my old firm.
I just comment on the work I do.
Okay.
Now let me ask you, John McGluck, because you had an interesting memo to the President Trump skewed media polls.
Uh, and then I'll get Matt and Scott's take on it.
Tell us the give us a summary of that.
Well, the summary, it's on our website on McGuachon Online.com.
And the president tweeted.
By the way, does anyone else own your name and also another polling company that can confuse us even further?
But go ahead.
No, not right now, but they wouldn't pay as much for my name as Scott got.
So the uh, I'm sure.
But the uh and judging from the reaction of the liberals who have attacked us for this memo, like even Chris Qualo attacking us on CNN last night.
Um but but the the media's got a plan here.
They're trying, they see the same enthusiasm for the president.
They see the same kind of numbers that we've had four years ago when they were all surprised when he won.
We predicted it on your show that he was going to win.
And now you've got the media put manufacturing polls to discourage us.
On Sunday, NBC puts out a poll, 26% Republicans, followed by CNN the next day, 25% Republicans.
What's important about that is on election day in 2016 when the president won elections, certainly there were four points more Democrats out there and Republicans, but Republicans were 33%.
And when the president gets over 90% of support from Republicans, every point we take in the president down in these polls where it's adults, they pull adults, represent over 220 million adults in the United States to a voting age population, but only 139 million voted, or they poll just registered voters.
They don't screen for likely voters.
So they're taking them down seven or eight points in their polls, and they're saying, Oh, he's he can't win, it's what he's getting blown away.
And by the way, in that memo, I actually praised CBS.
They're the only ones that did likely voter polls, and they had the they had the election of virtually dead heat in the country right now.
So the media is playing this game to suppress the Republican vote to sus suppress the Trump voter.
And it's transparent.
They did it four years ago, but now they're just trying to do it even more than they did four years ago.
Matt Towery, you agree with that analysis and and do you agree with me that we don't really know what the issues are going to be in 145 days.
I've got to believe, you know, what the recovery uh numbers look like uh in the third quarter, those numbers will come out in October, just before the November 3rd election.
I gotta believe that's gonna impact the economy.
Also, you know, I I think some other issues are emerging.
I mean, you have an entire city, city blocks taking over.
Um you see 800 cops now, about that number have been injured around the country, and and bottles and bricks and rocks and Molotov cocktails uh thrown at them.
We've had over 20 people die, including police officers in the aftermath of George Floyd's tragic death, unnecessary death, and the the shocking of the nation's conscience.
Well, uh first of all, I I totally agree.
I totally agree with uh with John in his analysis of these polls.
We said this many times on the air, but I want to say this about this election.
We're at a point right now that's very critical for the Trump campaign.
Whether you agree with these polls or not, the president is in decline.
He has been in decline since he quit holding these updates on the coronavirus back in the middle of May.
So you believe that's real.
I believe it's I don't mean that he's in the decline in the sense that he's 10 points down, but he is simply he is certainly taking it right now from the media.
And I think it's time the Trump campaign fight back and point out in their paid media the hypocritical nature of every single thing the media does right now.
No one's going to say this.
You can't get enough TV shows that they'll watch that can tell everyone the tweets can't be interpreted by anyone because there's no one there other than you and a few others to interpret them.
There's got to be a story laid out about the hypocrisy of saying you can't go to church.
Oh, but at the same time, you can gather in the streets and protest, uh, and the president can't carry a Bible uh to a church across the street from the White House.
Come on.
The hypocrisy is unbelievable.
And it's over and over and over again.
And I think the campaign needs to start taking that to the public so the president can begin to get back on the right footing and then show the actions that he's brought and the deeds that he's done that have brought tremendous economic growth to this country, stability around the world.
None of that can be heard until we get this thing right it, and only the campaign can write it.
And imagine they add to that, I'd love your thoughts on it, Scott Rasperson, because you know, Terry McCullough, oh, I'm just fine with him being in his basement bunker.
He always sees two people a day.
Well, that's a pretty unique uh way to go about campaigning.
Uh your thoughts.
Well, you know, first I agree with Matt.
Uh I do the president's numbers are in decline, uh, or they were have been in decline.
Uh in my last polling showed him at a 41% job approval rate.
But importantly, and and this is something, you know, your comment about nobody knows what it's going to be like 145 days from now.
Well, my last poll was conducted just before the jobs report comes out.
We're in the field again right now.
We'll see how much of an impact that had.
What's really going to affect this election is the way that the U.S. reopens, the way the economy recovers, the way that society recovers.
Uh, if the next jobs report is better than the last one, and the one after that is even stronger, and we're appear to be surviving without another wave of the pandemic hitting us.
Uh all of these numbers we're talking about today will just be ancient history because the president will be doing very well.
As for Joe Biden, yeah, I think it's been very effective for him to uh have a low profile.
I think the one thing that's really hurting him is he's not getting a chance to debate or practice debating with anybody.
It would have been much easier to warm up with Bernie Sanders than to come out of the basement and have to debate Donald Trump uh, you know, on a national stage.
I think that's going to be a problem for him uh as well.
So let's look at a crystal ball period here.
Let's say, okay, what do we anticipate the economy's gonna be?
Well, uh, you know, they were only off in their predictions, well, every prediction and every model on coronavirus, but they're off in their predictions uh uh certainly nobody saw by 11 million.
I mean, they thought it was gonna be a what, 10 million uh job loss that ended up being a net gain of 2.5 million for May, John McLaughlin.
That certainly gives me a lot of hope the economy's coming back.
What impact does that have, if true?
Well, uh it's good, it's a positive impact.
Like like Scott said, all these media polls that they say were in decline, don't have the effect of that.
Plus, the Trump campaign did put up ads on that instantly on Friday that ran over the past week.
And they have put up ads.
Um uh Brad Parcell tweeted out today that saying basically that you now have Biden saying he won't he won't stop the Democrats from defunding the police, or the fact reminding them that too that Biden voted for most favored nation state is for China, and and he really helped ship hundreds of thousands of American jobs overseas.
So this is a this is now gonna become a contrast election.
And and you're gonna have a when you're thinking of the economy, the economic recovery, you're gonna have Donald Trump a proven jobs creator who's fighting to suspend the payroll tax and other things to create jobs, versus Joe Biden who wants to raise tax and abolish the the energy industry in states like Pennsylvania that are gonna cost us millions of jobs.
So this this can this campaign is far from decided by any stretch because Biden's now gonna come under focus when we're trying to reopen the economy.
And your thoughts uh Matt Towery and what uh what you know, watching Democrats not only botch coronavirus, New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Jersey, then you see that you know, we have city blocks taking over, and they can't restore order in New York, they can't do it in Washington,
they can't do it in any of these liberal cities, and maybe add in or factor in the decades rule of Democrats and big cities and their failure to restore uh safe to create safe cities and educational uh opportunities for their kids.
Uh does that factor in?
It does.
But but we've got to remember one thing, at least for now, we don't know a hundred and something days from now what we're gonna be dealing with.
Right now, Donald Trump is running not against Joe Biden, he's running against the media, a vicious media that for let's a great example, Sean.
So we had the civil unrest and they covered it every day, and during that time period, no one cared about coronavirus.
Well, yeah, we were told it's better to be in the streets protesting than it is to worry about coronavirus.
We heard it from experts.
In fact, health experts signed a letter, a thousand of them say better to be in the streets than coronavirus.
As soon as uh Mr. Floyd was laid to rest, and we had elections on Tuesday, so nobody wanted to go to the streets and be accused of messing up the elections.
The next day you get up and what's the headline?
Coronavirus rising primarily in all the red states.
And all the interpretation and now we're going back into a second wave.
If the Trump campaign has got to take on the media that is not telling the truth and the Democrats who are hypocritical one day and hypocritical the next in different directions.
All right, as we continue our pollsters, we don't have a lot of time in this segment, but we have Greg Jarrett, John Solomon on the deep state breaking news there.
John McLaughlin, Matt Towery, Scott Rasmussen.
All right, same question and we have two minutes.
Real quick so how does this play out based on all the years all of you have been doing polling and you are the three guys that predicted that Donald Trump would win in 2016.
That's it.
Not many people got that right Scott the way this plays out all depends on how successfully we reopen.
I expect there is going to be a euphoria as people it's more than the economy.
When people get to go out again and and feel like they've been let loose from house arrest there's going to be euphoria sweeping the nation and as long as that happens and without any outrecurrence of the coronavirus the president will be re-elected.
And in fact if it goes very well he could win a majority of the popular vote.
Okay, Matt Towery Okay, I've said Donald Trump would win in 2016.
I've been saying it on your show for two years.
Right now I'm undecided.
Does that tell you something?
I'm concerned.
So I think what we need to do is lay a predicate down the average person doesn't watch uh television news.
The average person just sees little bits and snippets of these voters.
And until the the we can get them to understand the the the very hypocritical and unfair world that Donald Trump himself is living in and they start to understand it, we're going to have a hard time crawling out of this hole.
And your take John McGlachin right now it's unbelievable what the president's face global pandemic unemployment of the level that you haven't seen since the depression and uh now you get this looting and rioting.
And you know what Donald Trump his base is rock solid with him.
He's still with him we're running like we're the underdog we're behind the media's biased and they're just showing us that's why people have to come to your show to get the truth.
But Donald Trump, as Scott said, as the economy recovers, as the country reopens and they see Donald Trump fighting for them personally once again we can get reelected but we can't take it for granted right now.
We've got to take any election for the challenge.
I don't take any election for granted.
You got to act like you're a touchdown down, two minute drill, no timeouts.
And you need the touchdown, cross the plane and the extra point to win.
That's how I feel.
All right.
25 now till the top of the hour, 174 days until Election Day.
And we have some fake news CNN polling that has come out here.
And we see that, well, according to them, and they always over poll Democrats over Republicans.
They say Biden has a lead over Trump at five points.
Trump has an edge in the critical battleground states that could decide the Electoral College.
But CNN to admit this is a...
battle cry.
And trust me they did not want to admit this we know who they are we know that they're not to be trusted.
But if it's 5146 and the president's been going up in every poll recently I saw polls yesterday they were dead even but in the again in the swing states uh Trump has the edge and you got to remember during these elections what do I always say for a Republican to win you got to thread the needle.
You gotta win Florida you got to win Ohio.
You got to pick up Georgia's demographics are changing North Carolina's demographics are changing.
Texas they're trying to change who did I read I guess it was Mike Bloomberg spending millions to try and flip Texas blue then you've got to pick up Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, some combination therein you got to make a play out in on the West Coast for Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona is always iffy at times, uh New Hampshire, uh, the second district of um congressional district of Maine.
Uh anyway, according to this, if you look at, for example, where they are, if Trump's biggest advantage in the poll comes over his handling of the economy.
54% trust the president to better handle the nation's economy.
Forty two percent prefer Biden.
Uh if you compare their records, which will happen in the next 174 days, uh, it will be interesting to watch.
This is a joke, this question.
Voters divide over uh the two, which who has the best sharpness and stamina to be president, Trump 4946.
I'm not sure who the 46% is, but that 46% scares me.
Um if you look at the swing states, which matter the most, uh, that's where you see that the president has the bigger advantage.
Um, but I don't know if we can poll anything accurately at this point in time.
That's why we have our pollsters.
John McLaughlin, Matt Towery, Scott Rasmussen.
Uh Scott, I didn't see your poll today.
Where's your poll today?
Well, right now we actually show the overall numbers very close to where CNN's top line is.
We have uh Joe Biden up by six points among registered voters, but those who are most interested in the election are uh more enthusiastic about the president.
And so what that tells me is if the election was held today, uh we would be talking about three states uh Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Uh I'm skeptical of the CNN poll showing the president up by seven in those states, partly because it's got to be a really small sample.
Um, you know, so it's not worth paying a lot of attention to.
Uh but the reality, you know, you outlined it.
The president has to win Florida, he has to win Ohio, and he has to do well in a couple of these other states.
Ultimately, more than any of these particular polls about what the race looks like today, it's how we reopen America that will determine this presidential election.
I've been saying this, Matt Towery to friends now for a while.
What likely what likely will be the driving force that ultimately determines victory, that event probably is not happened yet, and I think a lot of it, America's about to ha be shocked to the core with second quarter numbers, and that would be April, May, June numbers, GDP numbers that are going to be a disaster.
We all know that the country shut down.
Uh I don't think the president gets the credit he deserves for the largest and fastest medical mobilization in the history of the world, uh, where any bailed out states like New York because they were totally ill-prepared.
Uh then I look at these main states that Scott's talking about, and where do you where do you see it at this point?
Well, I see a couple of things.
For one thing, Sean, I think uh we I don't have the the actual um evidence right now, but I can tell you intuitively that in states such as New York, uh California, some of the other states in the Northeast, where uh of course New York's probably an exception because they had such a tough time.
But let's let's say Pennsylvania is a good example.
The frustration among these voters um and these people who can't get back out and can't start their businesses up again, is growing every single day.
I'm in Florida.
Florida's done a great job.
The people down here are very it's been incredible.
And quite frankly, to get some credit to Brian Kemp and Georgia, Georgia opened early and they're doing well as also.
Hey, listen, I I I I'm falling on the sword.
I was very skeptical of how you can open up salons until I saw the plexiglass and the social distancing and the masks worn and the gloves worn, and I said, Wow, that's gonna work.
Well, his problem was one of messaging.
He talks about tattoo powers and stuff.
That was just a mistake.
But what has happened in these red states is that they are opening.
Their infection rates are not increasing substantially, unlike what we were told would happen.
There may be some hot spots, we'll wait and see.
But there's a big difference between the red states that seem to be happily opening up and keeping the economy going, and these blue states, where I believe their voters are becoming increasingly frustrated.
And you get a marginal state like a Pennsylvania, this will blow in Trump's direction in the end.
That's that's my opinion.
What do you think uh John McLaughlin?
I don't think I I think the media was exaggerating.
Uh they wanted to hope that the president was in big trouble, and they were using the crisis against them.
But the reality of this is the president's been very steady, and he's eight And and the polls that are out there that are reliable, they've had it very close regardless.
And most Americans, we're watching what's going on as far as the economic recovery, how the president keeps us open safely and reopens America.
And now by Joe Biden's emerging.
So the idea that Joe Biden might be coming out in the basement.
I mean, he's a very weak candidate for the Democrats, and there's no enthusiasm.
Let's look at the results uh in elections that many people didn't pay attention to, and that is the California 25th uh district, which I I found very, very interesting.
Uh and the Wisconsin seventh uh uh victory by Republicans as all happened yesterday.
Uh this guy, Mike Garcia taking over Katie Hill's uh spot, it looks like in Congress in that district, the 25th district.
It's the first Republican in 22 years to claw back a seat from the Democrats in California, and it's interesting because even Gavin Newsom tried to open up his everything else is closed, but he opened up new polling places just to help uh in Democratic, uh more democratic parts of the district.
Uh what do you make of those two victories?
Because my interpretation is is that whatever momentum Democrats might have had in 2018 would be gone.
Scott.
You know, Sean, you know, when you talk about these things, uh I always offer the caution that people attach too much uh you know excitement to special elections.
But these do cut against the narrative that somehow this is all a disaster for the president and for the Republicans.
Something is going on out there.
Matt mentioned people who are anxious to get back out to work.
Uh, we did a poll the other day and found that 60% of voters, six out of ten, believe that all businesses should be allowed to reopen now as long as they practice some sort uh you know safety protocols.
Only 26% are opposed.
This is not the narrative we're hearing.
I think that's feeding into some of these special election results.
Um and I think it's it's a larger problem for the Democrats in the sense that uh we are not able to sustain these lockdowns.
They are not a popular uh response, and there is no plan in some of the I live in New York City.
There's no plan here to reopen the city uh anytime soon, and that is a problem in creating increasing levels of frustration.
So I think if you begin to look at the dynamics of I I think we've passed the tipping point.
Voters are saying, okay.
A week or two of a lockdown may have been okay to get us past the initial surge of this.
Certainly in New York, it was it was well received.
But now let's get back to the business of making America work.
And I think people are looking to a different kind of leadership for that.
We have a couple of issues remar emerging on Biden.
One is he's re recruiting AOC, uh Casio Cortez to serve on a climate change panel, uh, and he's working with Bernie Sanders, he said, uh John McLaughlin.
Number two, on Monday with George Stephanopoulos, Biden denied any knowledge of the Flynn case.
Uh and then uh it turns out today that he was one of the people that requested the unmasking of General Flynn on eight days before he left office as vice president.
Uh that might be a problem for him.
Uh his problems with China and his problems with, you know, promising illegal immigrants a pathway to citizenship and even suggesting that um Obama, you know, he regretted what they did in the Obama years to illegal immigrants.
Yeah, I mean, this is what I what I mentioned before.
Now Joe Biden is the candidate.
The Democrats are finding out about him.
And there's there's got to be buyer's remorse among the Democrats because there's no enthusiasm for him.
And when you ask voters, do you want him to be the one to lead us to help the economy recover?
No way.
You want him to be the one to help prevent the spread of coronavirus?
No.
And it's and the President Trump is getting the credit for what's being done.
And in California, which is a real election, and the first time in decades that we flipped the seat from Democrat to Republican in California, they basically, the mayor held up announcing that he was going to shut the city of LA down until August.
He held that till right, you know, just when it's too late that the voters would react.
And as of today, the last numbers I saw, Garcia was up by 12 points.
It's not even close.
So uh Donald Trump is the way to get elected.
And any never Trump was going to distance himself, making a big mistake.
I don't see that um, I mean, Biden is sheltering in place, uh uh, Scott.
And and every time he goes on and does one of his stupid virtual town halls, he looks dumber than the last one.
Uh even this week.
Another disaster.
Am I on?
Then he walks to the camera, takes off his aviator sunglasses.
I mean, it just looks so contrived and fake and phony, and this guy, he he's he's not been pushed.
He's not been stretched at all or challenged in any way, and he seems to do best when he's hiding at some point.
Doesn't he have to come out of his basement?
Well, at some point he will have to come out of his basement.
And the notion, I I can't even imagine what a debate between the two candidates will look like uh in terms of energy level in terms of focusing on issues and everything else.
Uh, you know, look, there is John mentioned buyer's remorse.
Uh 35% of voters say it's still at least somewhat likely Biden is going to be replaced as the nominee, and that includes 28% of Democrats.
That speaks to a tremendous lack of this nominee.
That raises the question.
Do you think he gets replaced?
You think there's a chance.
Scott Rasmussen, then uh Matt, then John.
It is a difficult uh thing to replace him for one reason.
That reason is Bernie Sanders, because a lot of Democrats say, oh, we need somebody like Governor Cuomo or whoever else.
If you take the nomination away from Joe Biden and do not give it to Bernie Sanders, this the Bernie bros are just going to just leave and create a civil war within the Democratic Party.
So I don't think it's going to happen, but I think it's going to be uh an ongoing issue.
Matt, what if Joe Biden said Jill, his wife says, uh, well, you know, I just don't think my husband's up to it.
What happens then?
I think it becomes a shift show.
Well, I think it would be a mess.
You know, uh, Scott makes a very good point about the Bernie Sanders group, but probably the the depth way for them to do it would be for Biden to get the nomination.
And after he gets a nomination at some point there, quickly thereafter, have to bow out.
Then your vice presidential nominee would likely become your presidential nominee, and that person is going to be an Obama-approved person.
I can guarantee you that.
So that that's probably the only way they could pull it off.
And I know there are a lot of rules in DNC I don't know about.
I'm not sure they could do it prior to that.
Maybe they couldn't do it after that.
I do think this, though, I think that Biden is going to increasingly right now.
The public's not focused, Scott.
We're we're worried about a pandemic.
We're worried about our own livelihood and our our safety.
When we start focusing on these candidates and they really see how weak Biden is, that's when the Democrats are going to start to really panic.
What do you think, John?
Could it happen?
I don't think so because as Scott already mentioned, if they try to take it away from Biden, and he won't have the delegates till like June 3rd.
But if they try to take it away, Bernie's going to demand it.
And the reason they replaced Bernie with Biden was because they thought that Sanders would lose to Trump.
And now they're going to find themselves Donald Trump's going to beat whomever they put up.
Yeah.
Well, I mean, if they pull that, I can imagine the Bernie people losing their minds.
Although, you know what?
I think I was more upset at what had happened uh to Bernie Sanders in 2016 than Bernie was.
