Sean spends the entire show capping the journey to the White House that was the last two years. As early results trickle in, Sean brings updates and discusses strategy with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. The course of our country's future is set today... The Sean Hannity Show is live Monday through Friday from 3pm - 6pm ET on iHeart Radio and Hannity.com. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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You are listening to the Sean Hannity Radio Show podcast.
All right, it is finally arrived.
Yes, Election Day, another Election Day.
And how are you feeling today?
I know what you want to ask me.
I know what the question is.
I know there is all of the analysis in the world, and every single expert and pro that I know is writing back and forth.
And anecdotally, we're all trying to glean whatever we possibly can from the voting turnout here in this county, in Miami-Dade, and Broward, and Hamilton County, and Franklin County, and the Philly suburbs.
And, you know, the bottom line is, it's what I said.
It is winnable for Donald Trump.
It is difficult, but winnable.
And it's really now in the hands of you, the American people, as it should be.
You know, when all is said and done, we end up, whether we like to hear this or not, with the government we, the people, deserve.
And I am just, I'm just hopeful that the American people will get this right.
There's a lot happening.
I think every state that we talked about yesterday matters the same today, starting with Florida.
All things begin and start with Florida.
You know, the only anecdotal information, a really good friend of mine, I don't know if he wants me to mention him or not, Matt Towery.
I've known him for all the years that I was in Georgia when I first went down there in 1992.
And he is somebody that I look to with great expertise in voting.
When he's saying Hillsbury County, Hillsborough County, sorry, in Tampa, Florida, turned out early in Election Day at 72% in 2012.
As of 1:30 this afternoon, the combined early and election day vote in Hillsborough had already reached 63%.
And there's a lot of hours.
That's from 1:30 p.m. Eastern Time this afternoon.
It's now a little after 3 Eastern.
So with hours to go, his belief and analysis and expectation is that the vote this year is going to exceed, far exceed 2012 levels, which seems to be the case not only in Florida, but around the nation.
That is the anecdotal evidence I have gotten.
Now, not the case where I voted earlier today, but Linda apparently waited in line three hours today to get her vote in.
How long did everyone else wait in there?
How long did you wait?
Jason, did you wait a long time?
No, not really.
It took me about 15 minutes.
50 or 15?
Okay, and Sunshine, how long did you wait?
I was there for almost an hour.
Okay, and Ethan, how long did you wait?
Five minutes.
I was the third person to vote.
Okay, I basically walked up and voted.
So, and you were, what, two or three hours, Linda?
How long total?
I saw your line.
Yeah, it was a long line.
I mean, it was about two hours, you know, but it was worth it.
That's a lot.
It was worth it.
Of course.
Well, look, I don't think New York is all of a sudden going to end up in play, but it's, yeah, I think it's still important to vote because then you get into this whole electoral college debate versus the popular vote.
And Democrats are going to run up massive numbers.
I mean, that's one thing I don't think that's factored in enough in the polls, which is, you know, are they polling a lot of people in California?
Okay, you know, Hillary Clinton, any leftist liberal, is going to win that state by a huge margin, or New York, or in most cases, New Jersey.
I think Trump might outperform in New Jersey better than people think.
But we'll have to wait and see.
And, you know, I stayed up late last night.
I watched Trump's final speech in Grand Rapids.
He threw on the schedule late.
It must have been about one in the morning.
And I think he finished as tough and as strong and as committed as I think he's ever been.
In many ways, I have known this guy for years.
I think he's a changed person.
And I don't think he's had time to reflect on what the changes really are, but his passion to do this job is real.
I mean, I think he was outworking Hillary Clinton by, you know, doing eight states to her two.
Anyway, back to the anecdotal evidence of my friend Matt Towery.
He goes on to say, so he thinks his guess is that they've already reached 63% of the vote total in 2012, which is a pretty high number.
This is outside of, this is Tampa, Hillsborough County.
And with hours to go, he thinks the numbers will far exceed 2012.
And that is the anecdotal, I repeat that, evidence that we're getting all around the country, not only Florida, but around the nation.
And he says, and his conclusion of this is, I can only remember two times when we've had such a wave of voting.
1980, Reagan, 2008, Obama.
And his next line is, and Secretary Clinton is no Obama.
And it fits his view that the polls have underestimated and miscalculated the turnout in the waiting models.
Look, at some point during this program today, I am going to get the eggs of polling data.
And you'll watch the media.
Early data waves did not impress the media.
They weren't particularly happy.
That I can tell you.
I'm not supposed to report any of it, and I will keep my word because I have people that are counting on me to keep my word.
But, you know, I'll give you a little anecdotal stuff that I think will be important to you.
But the bottom line is you shouldn't pay attention to it.
It shouldn't impact you.
If you're on the West Coast in particular, you've got to ignore it.
And you've got to just go with where your heart is.
And where is your heart in this election?
What do you think matters the most?
My big question is, are you better off than you were eight years ago?
Did Barack Obama's hopey and changey and yes, we can and Obama, did it do anything for you and your country in your life?
And based on all of the data that I have given out this entire election season, if you want, I'll repeat it.
I don't have to.
But I wanted to make sure that by repeating it every day that you understood things not only didn't get better, things didn't change for the better, things got dramatically worse, both at home and abroad.
You know, America's future to me today is on the ballot.
You know, the front page of today's New York Post has a photo of a woman holding her nose with the headline, vote for the one you dislike the least.
Now, the Post is my favorite newspaper, but in this case, I think they're 1,000% wrong.
This is not one of those elections where you are choosing to me between the lesser of two evils.
I think we get to choose today.
Look, the first thing, if you want to tell me that Donald Trump didn't spend his entire life preparing to be the president or run for the presidency, well, that's fairly obvious.
Otherwise, he wouldn't have gone on Howard Stern Show.
You know, it's fairly obvious because he didn't lead the lifestyle of the typical politician that does all the right things.
But in a way, it's always been refreshing to me because over the years that I've studied and watched these politicians, they're just the opposite of Trump.
In as much as they put their best face, public face forward, and behind the scenes, they're far worse than what you'd ever imagine.
And I think with Trump, it's actually kind of the opposite: that you kind of see his flaws up front.
He wears them on his sleeve, but behind the scenes, he's actually a better person, which I think was what motivated him to run, which is, you know, it's just not politics.
Take from that what you will.
And I think we have two very distinct visions for the future of the country.
We have one choice, we continue the direction that has failed the last eight years.
We have the other choice, we change direction, and in some ways, actually reverse direction.
One candidate wants to expand on this, on her party's liberal orthodoxy.
The other candidate wants to break with the party line on trade, immigration, the economy, and foreign policy.
Rosie Gray is a reporter at the Daily Beast who actually, shockingly, I gave her a shot.
I said, all right, you know what?
I don't trust you.
I know who you write for, but I'm going to give you a shot.
And I gave her a chance.
I said, the only thing I ask is that you quote me directly.
And she absolutely gave very specific quotes that I gave her.
And I said, all right, so I gave her another interview today.
And she says, win-lose draw, what do you think this means for the future of the Republican Party?
And I saw Dylan Byers.
There is the old Republican order, regardless of what happens today.
And I do believe that Donald Trump is very much in this.
The old Republican order, I told her, is dead.
It's done.
It's finished.
There is no going back.
And, you know, I remember Reagan famously said in a CPAC speech, because I've quoted it so often: is it a third party we need or a revitalized second party with no pale pastels but bold color differences?
And he made the argument we need a revitalized second party, Republican Party.
Now, I'm fine whichever way it happens, but the old Republican Party, where they make promises that they're going to repeal and replace Obamacare, and they're not willing to fight, they're not willing to use their enumerated powers to get rid of those parts of Obamacare that they could have.
You know, when 2014 becomes a referendum on illegal, unconstitutional executive amnesty, and then they punt it to the courts because they don't want to fight for fear that they're going to get blamed for a government shutdown, and the only person that stood up in the Senate was Ted Cruz and Ram Paul and Marco Rubio and Mike Lee, then there's no difference between the two parties.
If John Boehner is going to allow, with the power of the purse, the debt to go up $5 trillion, that Republican Party is useless to me.
If the Republican Party is going to commit brave men and women to fight, bleed, and die like they did in Iraq and not fight to retain the victory, then that's not the party that's going to win.
Look, the Republican Party better understand what's happening here.
With 95 million Americans out of work, with the lowest labor participation rate since the 70s, the lowest home ownership rate in 51 years, the worst recovery since the 40s, 12,
13 million more Americans on food stamps, 8 million more Americans in poverty, one in five American families without a single family member working, one in six American men 18 to 34 in jail or living in mommy and daddy's basement, there's something radically wrong.
Now, if they're going to cater to cheap labor, and that's the reason that they never built the wall that they promised us in 2006, if they're not going to have a message solutions that resonate with those people in Michigan and Minnesota and Wisconsin and Ohio and Pennsylvania,
that's going to make the working lives of these hard great Americans better, then that party's dead.
You know, one of the most underreported, I think, things about Donald Trump's platform is this new New Deal for African Americans, for black Americans, where he says, we're not, we're going to go in, we're going to fix your broken down, dilapidated schools.
You know, 4,000, nearly 4,000 people died in Chicago alone since Obama's been president, 3,000 shot in Chicago this year alone.
You know, and Trump says, we're going to get rid of the violence.
We're going to fix these schools.
We're going to send education back to the states.
And we're going to incentivize multinational corporations to bring their money back and become energy independent.
So we'll have millions and millions of high-paying jobs and incentivize these companies to build the factories in Michigan and in Wisconsin and Minnesota and Pennsylvania and Ohio.
Unless the Republican Party has the answers to help those people that are suffering in massive numbers, they're useless.
Unless they go into the black community and say, the Democrats take your vote for granted every four years.
They've never fixed your schools.
Your neighborhoods aren't safer.
There's more drugs than ever before.
The violence is out of control.
And here's how we're going to fix it.
Here's a ladder to success.
Unless they do these things, you know, it's going to be the same old model every four years, the same old electoral map every four years.
You know, if they don't show that there is a free market-based answer to health care, if they don't show the benefits of energy independence, if they don't go into working neighborhoods and say,
I never got a job from a poor person, and if I allow trillions of dollars repatriated into this country from multinational corporations With the stipulation that they've got to build factories and manufacturing centers in cities that are half dead like Detroit, you've got to make that case, but you've got to go there and you got to do it.
But Republicans have lost any sense of vision, any sense of fight, any sense of a backbone, and they have basically capitulated.
So the old Republican order, I'm telling you, and I'll go through this tomorrow, and I'll go through this on Thursday, but the old Republican order will never be the same.
Win, lose, or draw today.
You know, they had the autopsy, the famous autopsy of the Republican Party.
What went wrong with Mitt Romney?
Mitt Romney went into that election, you know, most days before, and it switched at the end, but the polls are often in presidential election years off by a ton, off by about three percentage points.
So you don't know the IDB, I'm sorry, IBD poll, which has been the most accurate in the last three election cycles, in the end had Trump plus two, L.A. Times, Trump plus three, others had Hillary plus two, three in that range as well.
So, you know, by all accounts, somewhat deadlocked, no real indicator of how the election is going to go.
Let me just explain a little bit more about what I mean.
And I actually plan to get into more of this after today, after the results are in.
But the Republican Party still doesn't get how we got to this point in the election.
They don't understand it.
Either they don't understand it or they don't want to understand it.
And I probably would argue it's the latter.
When every single, like, for example, I've done focus groups of this radio program.
I've done research on what you, my customers, have to say about me or on television, what you have to say about me.
And if two-thirds of you are telling me that I need to shut up, that I talk too loud, that I interrupt too much, that I digress too much in my speech patterns, at some point, I've got to look at that and say, that is a loud, resounding message, and it better start resonating with me so I can make my customers happy and give them more of what they want.
When you look at the primary results in this election cycle, when we started out with 17 Republicans, on average, it was about 63 to 66% of Republican voters saying they felt betrayed by the D.C. Republican Party.
And it was all across the board.
And for some of the examples that I brought up in the last half hour, and that is that they promised to repeal and replace Obamacare.
Now, they did have their show votes, some 40, 50 show votes so they could be able to go home to their district and tell their constituents, see, I voted to repeal and replace Obamacare, but it never had any real teeth in it.
And a lot of times politicians have what I call show votes.
But if they really wanted to repeal the aspects of Obamacare that they couldn't, it wouldn't have been the whole thing.
They had a power available to them, enumerated power constitutionally, the power of the purse.
They didn't want to use it.
When you talk as a party about small government and limiting the bureaucracy and the dangers of debt and deficits, and you have control of the House of Representatives, and John Boehner is your speaker, and he has control of the power of the purse.
And during his tenure, the debt goes up nearly $5 trillion.
There is culpability and responsibility on the part of Republicans for not taking that stand and saying, no, we're going to fix this, and we don't care that Obama's going to blame us, but we're taking a stand on principle.
Now, there's certain political risks involved with that.
You might think, oh, there might be a backlash.
Oh, I might get voted out.
Oh, I'm creating controversy.
Oh, I'm going to have to explain why the government is shut down.
Oh, Obama's going to say we want poor people to starve.
Oh, Obama's going to say that veterans are going to get hurt because of our actions.
Now, there are certain mitigating powers.
You could start passing bills that would keep funding the military and taking care of our vets and taking care of Social Security, stopgap measures, spending measures that you could use.
But in the end, I mean, Jamie Dupree and I used to go through this day in and day out at the time, what powers they actually had and what they had available to use and they didn't use.
If you say to the Republican rank and file in 2014, we see a president that 25 times says, I don't have the authority of my own.
I can't do it on my own.
I just can't, you know, I got to go through Congress.
And he says he's got to go through Congress, that he can't just, with a wave of a pen, you know, through executive fiat, change the immigration laws.
And he says he doesn't have the constitutional authority to do it.
And then he does it anyway.
And every Republican says, give us the Senate.
We'll stop his unconstitutional, illegal actions, executive orders on immigration.
And then they get the Senate, and then they're stupid enough to give away all the leverage that they have.
And they end up funding in the end executive amnesty.
And their excuse is, well, we sent it to the courts because they didn't want to get blamed for a government shutdown again.
And that was the power that Obama would constantly use on them.
Basically, Obama got his entire agenda passed with little to no opposition.
And the first argument was, well, we only have one-third of the power of government with the House of Representatives.
Well, there's a reason that our framers put together separation of powers, enumerated powers, co-equal branches of government.
And if you have the enumerated power of the purse and you're unwilling to use it, if you're unwilling to fight, if you're unwilling to take a stand, a courageous stand, well, that's why I think we got to the point where two-thirds of Republicans felt betrayed.
And they felt like the entire Obama agenda, you know, went unchecked.
And thus, you know, therein lies why the two finalists for the Republican primary ended up to be Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.
Now, they had something in common.
They're both insurgents.
They're both hated by the establishment.
They're both outsiders.
And I think it was a direct message from the people, just like in 2010, that they wanted a dramatic shift in change in Washington.
What Republicans seem to be missing and what Donald Trump has tapped into is not what they think it is.
An analysis of the media is going to tell you that Donald Trump tapped into anger and he tapped into racism and xenophobia and Islamophobia.
That's not it at all.
What they're missing here is what I have been telling you now for the better part of a year and a half, that people in this country are suffering badly because of failed government.
They're suffering.
They see the lowest labor participation rate since the 70s.
They see the first president never to reach 3% GDP growth.
They see 95 million of our fellow citizens that are out of the labor force.
They see the lowest home ownership rate in 51 years, the worst recovery since the 1940s.
They see Obama not only didn't have shovel-ready jobs, they weren't so shovel-ready, but they see 13 million of our fellow citizens, additional Americans, nearly 50 million of them, now on food stamps.
8 million more Americans that live in poverty, nearly 50 million Americans living in poverty.
One in five American households, not a single family member working.
One in six American men, 18 to 34 in jail, are living in mommy's basement.
These are millions of Americans that are suffering needlessly.
And we have a government, for example, energy, a simple issue, the lifeblood of the American economy.
We have more natural gas.
We have more oil we could drill for.
We have more coal, clean coal that we could extract than we would ever need in 200 years.
And yet America is too stupid to create the millions of jobs, the added bonus of national security benefits.
We would never have to fight a foreign war in the Middle East for a long, long period of time.
Oftentimes, it is our national interest for oil, for energy, that compels us to be far more involved than maybe we otherwise would.
How many times are we going to ask Americans to fight, bleed, suffer, and die, lose their limbs, come back disfigured, only to have people like Hillary who sent them, then pull them out, take the cities they've won, Mosul, Ramadi, Fallusha, Takrete, Baghdad, create an opening for ISIS, and they have the energy resources to expand their terror reign, as they have done.
How many times, this is where Republicans are out of touch.
This is where the old order Republican Party are either going to change or die.
They better start paying attention to what the people in Pennsylvania are saying, what the people in Pennsylvania need, what the people in Michigan are saying, and what they need, and in Wisconsin and in Minnesota and in Ohio and in Florida, the elderly population in Florida.
And they better understand that if they're not the party for the working man, if they're not the party of job creation, if they're not the party of energy independence, if they're not the party of better health care at a much lower price because of free market competition, if they don't have the capacity to go into every neighborhood, town,
and city in this country and explain how we can fix our broken educational system, if they don't go talk about how many illegal immigrants are competing with the 95 million Americans out of the labor force for work and not counter the argument that they're racist or xenophobic, then they've got their own problems.
Government is too big, too bloated, too intrusive.
Taxes are too high.
Regulation is too burdensome.
And it has hurt the American people.
And Donald Trump has tapped into, he's been using the phrase recently, the forgotten man.
There's an artist that I like, John McNaughton.
He has his signature painting, the forgotten man.
He's got all the presidents behind him, and this guy on a bench, you know, with his hands in his head, you know, his life is a mess because government has screwed it up so badly.
That is what, you know, when you look at a great city like Detroit, that is a shadow of its once former great self, or Flint, Michigan, that once had 88,000, you know, auto industry jobs, and they're now down to eight, and they're leaving even those jobs are in jeopardy.
You know, when Ford will make all of their small cars in Mexico, but then bring them back here, it's a problem.
And the answer isn't what Hillary Clinton is offering or what Obama has done.
Obama's record on the economy is atrocious.
If Hillary's elected today, it's going to remain atrocious.
I promise you, if Hillary is elected, America's precipitous decline will continue.
And that brings us back to the election today.
And, you know, if you are in any of these states that matter, well, you know what to do.
If you're in Florida and you haven't voted and you're in the panhandle, if you're in Southwest Florida, if you're in the I-4 Carter area, Tampa to Orlando, go vote.
If you're in Tallahassee, vote.
If you're in Pensacola, vote.
If you're in Jacksonville, go vote.
Same with Georgia.
Can't lose Georgia and have any shot tonight.
North Carolina is, you know, look, Trump, if he's going to have any shot, has got to win Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Iowa.
He's got to start there.
And then he's got to win every state.
This is why I said it's doable, but it's hard.
Then he's got to win every state Romney won.
Then he's got to hold Arizona.
He's got to try and flip Nevada and Colorado, or maybe even New Mexico.
Not an easy task.
And then he's got to look to New Hampshire.
Those four electoral votes in New Hampshire may end up making all the difference in the world tonight.
And then the main second congressional district.
And then if we're really thinking big and broad, you know, if you care about fracking and energy jobs in Pennsylvania, if you like to bring back manufacturing jobs and coal jobs in Pennsylvania, well, you better watch out what Hillary Clinton's bringing you.
Pennsylvania would be a game changer if that ever gets in play.
And the same with Michigan, game changer if that becomes in play.
Never mind Minnesota and Wisconsin.
So the path is what it is.
And I'd argue that this whole thing that Trump started with a new New Deal for black Americans and the African American, this needs to be pushed starting tomorrow.
And by pushed, I'm going to be very clear.
They need to go, Republicans, and say, Democrats have failed you.
Your neighborhoods are not safe.
And many inner cities in America, Chicago is a great example.
The schools are a disaster.
We pay more per capita with the worst results of any industrialized nation, and this is how we're going to fix it.
Anyway, anecdotally, by the way, we have apparently in Michigan, working class turnout, Frank Luntz tweeted out, is much higher than expected.
Trump may have a chance there.
Arizona, Republicans now lead by over 100,000 ballots.
Colorado right now, which would be huge for Donald Trump if he could flip it.
Republicans have a little bit of a built-in advantage, $775,000 to $756,000.
Florida, Republicans trail by 78,000 fewer ballots that were cast on Election Day in 2012.
Huge turnout reports on getting out of Florida.
I think Iowa, he's got a good chance.
Republicans outperformed in Nevada, 2012's final vote total by 16,000 ballots.
In North Carolina, Republicans trailed by 140,000 fewer ballots than 2012, and Romney ended up winning that state.
But, you know, that's all anecdotal.
I hear vote turnout is massive.
But America's future is on the ballot here.
And there's got to be some dramatic changes.
And later this week, I am going to lay out what the changes need to be, win, lose, or draw today.
Because I'm just fed up with Americans suffering needlessly.
All right, the Drudge Report just threw off their first siren.
Drudge is always on top of these exit polling numbers and data.
He has Hillary Plus and up in Pennsylvania.
Donald Trump up in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
By the way, don't take any of this as, oh, I don't need to vote now.
You know, that's not the way to interpret this.
That's why it's very, very important.
As a matter of fact, the bottom headline is this election is going to be decided by evening voters.
That probably means if you are in Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, that your vote is going to mean more than you think.
That's how you should interpret that.
The rest of his headline is, Florida is a showdown, as we might have anticipated.
Michigan is in play.
It's a showdown.
If you're in Michigan, your vote is really going to matter.
If you're in Florida, your vote is really going to matter.
Joining us now with his take on all of this is former Speaker of the House, author of the brand new novel, best-selling book.
It's called Treason.
Newt Gingrich is with us.
How are you?
Well, I'm doing great, and I think you just captured it almost perfectly.
Hang on, this is the first time this whole election cycle you said I got something right.
What's up with that?
Well, you were quoting Roman.
Exactly.
It wasn't me.
It was right.
How could I possibly be right?
But I thought you did a great job.
No, I think that that sort of says what it's at.
There are a number of states where Trump is ahead.
There are a couple of states that are very, very close.
Now, remember, three or four weeks ago, he was supposed to get beaten badly.
And now we're talking about how close Pennsylvania is.
So there's a lot of things going on out there.
I do think the surge of voters after work is going to settle a number of states.
There's going to be states where, no matter what the daytime exit polls show, and I went through this both in 1984 and 2012, in 2004, I was at a media luncheon in New York in 2004 because I remember calling your show afterwards.
And their early exit polls, which were absurd, I mean, they're all morning junk.
But their early exit polls all showed Kerry winning.
And these guys in the media were all kind of sitting around wondering which of their close friends were going to get cabinet jobs.
And you and I talked later on in the afternoon about the fact that the polls were just wrong and that Bush was going to win.
Well, I would say right now, Trump actually looks better right now than George W. Bush looked at this time on 2004.
I remember in 2004 doing this radio program, and Dick Cheney got off his plane, and it was in our final hour of the show, if I remember correctly, and the exit poll showed that John Kerry was going to be the next president.
And Dick Cheney called this radio program to push the vote out, and obviously they won by a bigger margin in 2004 than they did in 2000.
By the way, here's the Drudge just updated again.
All right, looks like Hillary is up in Pennsylvania, but Trump is up in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio now.
So then, get this.
Colorado's a showdown.
Florida is a showdown.
Michigan, a showdown.
Nevada, a showdown.
This is, you know, it's what we thought.
How do you interpret?
I'm getting all of this empirical data.
Matt Towery, who's a mutual friend of ours, I know you were on the email that I saw and quoted on this program earlier today.
I mean, he seems confident.
What he actually wrote was that in 2012, Hillsborough County, which is the Tampa area of Florida, turned out early in Election Day at 72% of all voters as of 1.30 this afternoon.
That's going back a couple hours now.
The combined early Election Day vote in Hillsboro had already reached 63%.
He said with hours to go, my guess it'll far exceed 2012 levels, which seems to be the case not only in Florida, but around the nation.
He said, I can only remember two times that we've had that kind of wave voting, 1980 with Reagan and 2008 with Obama.
And then he finishes the sentence by saying, and Secretary Clinton is no Obama.
And he said, this fits with my view that the polls totally underestimated and misallocated the turnout in their waiting models.
Do you agree with that?
Yeah, I think that's right.
And we'll find out in a few more hours.
But my sense is that the really big Obama precincts, which were largely legitimately African-American, there's a lot of pride in the African-American community at the first African-American president.
Those precincts almost everywhere are not turning out in the kind of numbers that Hillary needs.
In addition, there are some polls that show Trump getting as much as 19% of the black vote, which would be dramatically higher than Midromney ever dreamed of.
If you have a combination of a much smaller black vote and then her getting a much smaller percent of that smaller vote, this is a double disaster for her.
And this could affect Minnesota, Wisconsin.
Certainly it could affect Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida.
I mean, it's good on the list.
In addition, when you go through the list, let's assume for a second that the list you just gave us is pretty accurate.
Hang on, hang on.
It just got updated.
Trump.
Well, I'm just giving you.
All right, so Hillary's up in Pennsylvania.
That's the only state that she's up.
Trump up in Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, and Ohio.
Those were all states he needed to win.
I had every one of those states as must win.
I also add to that Florida.
Now, he says Colorado, Florida, Michigan, and Nevada are a showdown.
That means, you know, all of these states now are in play, and all of them, now, every vote in Colorado, Florida, Michigan, and Nevada now matter.
Right.
And remember what you're now saying.
Assuming he's right, and again, we don't know until we see that.
By the way, I know Matt Drudge.
Matt Drudge gets good data on Election Day.
I have been through four election cycles with Matt Drudge.
He gets good data.
I'm not disputing you.
I'm just suggesting to you that until you've actually seen precincts returned, for example, you don't know how big, if Trump has a real base among blue-collar workers who have eight to four, nine to five jobs, he may have a surge in the next two or three hours, unlike anything we've ever seen.
So you don't quite know what's going on out there.
But of the states you just listed, if I'm Hillary Clinton and I'm already behind in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio, and I was clearly going to go for Trump, and I'm now fighting for my life, not winning easily, fighting for my life in Colorado, Florida, Michigan, and Nevada.
If I were Hillary Clinton, I'd be very nervous.
No, I'd be nervous too.
But, you know, from my standpoint, and I have.
By the way, these are coming, I think, from exit polls.
Hang on, I'm looking at this as we speak here.
I'm now getting.
All right, all right.
Yep.
Apparently, these are the exit polls without any data.
So, you know, the data's coming in.
At about 5.15, I'll have a better picture of what the exit poll data is.
That's the way it happens every election year.
But you're right.
In the next four hours, five hours, things can change dramatically in his favor in every one of those swing states.
Yeah, I mean, it seems to me that you're looking at a situation where, and I want to emphasize this for our audience, we have never seen the electorate we're going to see this year.
This is Matt Towry's whole point.
He said, male turnout is up substantially.
White turnout is up substantially.
Blue-collar high school graduate turnout is up substantially.
African-American turnout is down.
And all these things come in a swirling process of suggesting somewhere between a really, really close race and a Trump blowout.
And we just don't know.
And we're not going to know until we start seeing precincts come in.
Yeah.
You know, one of the things, how did you know back in 94 that you were going to win?
And you told me weeks in advance.
Now, Republicans hadn't been in power in 40 years, and that's a pretty bold prediction.
How did you know?
But it's a different situation.
When you're competing for the House, you have 435 separate unique races.
I had the enormous advantage of having Joe Gaylord, who is one of the best political analysts I've ever worked with and who was really my partner in designing the whole thing.
And I remember on September 17th, we were leaving on a trip to raise money and had our planning team with us, including Dan Meyer, who then was my chief of staff.
And I raised a simple question.
I said, okay, are we planning for Speaker or are we planning for minority leader?
And Kaylord said, well, you better be planning for Speaker because you're going to be.
At which point, Dan Meyer said, hold on.
We're not going to do another thing.
Remember, we had not been in power in 40 years.
And so Meyer says, we're not doing another thing until you walk us through that.
So Gaylord, from memory, started in Maine, covered 435 congressional districts by memory, and he was off by one.
He thought we'd pick up 52.
We got 53.
We've never quite let him live that down.
But the difference is when you go house race by house race in an off-year, remember, there's no presidential overlay.
This is an off-year election.
You can get a pretty good grip if you see the momentum coming your way and if you know who the candidates are.
And we had deliberately stretched the field.
One of the things I admire about what Trump did in the last two weeks is he went to Michigan.
He went to Pennsylvania.
You know, he went places where the elite made.
He went to Minnesota.
And here are all these analysts sitting around Washington and New York going, boy, that's really a waste of time.
No, it's not.
We ran somebody against Danny Rostenkowski in downtown Chicago.
We won.
Rostenkowski lost.
We ran somebody against Jack Brooks, the chairman of the Judiciary Committee in rural Houston outside Houston, the suburbs.
We won.
We ran somebody against the Speaker of the House.
No Speaker of the House had been defeated since 1854.
We won.
Now, part of the reason we got a majority that year is that we stretched the other team so thin that they couldn't focus.
So, what did you have happen in the last two days?
Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, Bill Clinton are all running around chasing, basically chasing Donald Trump.
He goes to Michigan, they go to Michigan.
He goes to Pennsylvania, they go to Pennsylvania.
I mean, it's as though he's now the Pied Viper, and they're having to run after him everywhere.
And he was great when he went to Minnesota, which nobody thought made sense in the regular traditional thing.
But his line was, I cared enough to come here.
He didn't.
Well, how many Minnesotans who are on the side are going to go, you know, yeah, maybe I want the candidate who actually came to Minnesota.
Such a good point, especially last minute.
What does your gut tell you then?
I mean, look, you're a historian on top of everything else.
I mean, probably I think you're more of a historian than a politician, which is somewhat ironic, maybe people hearing that because you've been in politics so long, but your great passion and love is to come to New York and look at dinosaur bones and read historical novels and read history.
What do you think?
How do you read what you know today?
Remember, I have two biases.
One is that I am an optimist.
And as Christopher can tell you, I get up every morning and I'm optimistic.
So I approach this with a bias that Trump will win because I'm an optimist.
Second, I have a model which I cited to you yesterday, which I recommend to everybody, which is Pat Cadell's article in Foxnews.com.
I think it was yesterday.
Brilliant, brilliant article by Pat Cadell.
And my model is simple.
If you have 80% of the country unhappy, if you have 75% of the country thinking that there is widespread corruption, if you have people believing that the future is going to be worse unless we change things, you have a huge bias in favor of the outsider.
So my bias has been for months, and you and I talked about it for at least three months now, that in the end, unless Hillary could knock Donald Trump out, he was going to win.
Just as in 1980, unless Jimmy Carter could knock Ronald Reagan out, he was going to win.
And I believe all over America today, there are people who have been holding their breath, they're not sure who to vote for, and they're finally coming down and saying, you know, I am not going to vote for her.
And I just tell you, we just flew down to Charleston.
I'm making a speech in the morning in Charleston, South Carolina.
The number of people who walked up to both Christopher and me on the plane, in the airport, et cetera, we ran into one Clinton voter, and we ran into dozens of people who said our guys got to win and felt very strongly about it.
It's funny you say that because that's what I keep hearing the most.
Let me ask you another question before I do let you go.
I'm told Donald Trump may actually call into this program in the next half hour.
It's not definite, but he may.
Let me ask you this question.
Do you agree with me that the old order of the Republican Party is done?
Well, I think it will depends on what happens with Trump.
If Trump wins, it's done.
If Trump loses narrowly, it'll make one last gasp to try to survive.
And the Trump forces will have to be organized in 18 and 20 to make sure that it doesn't.
But it certainly has been the most remarkable change-oriented campaign I can remember in modern times.
And it has, I think, permanently reshaped the Republican Party and may be on the edge of reshaping the country, which was Pat Cadell's point.
Yeah.
All right.
Well, the bottom line is: you know what?
This election has not been decided.
The polls are still open everywhere.
And we'll have some exit polling data in less than an hour now, which will tell us.
I suspect Drudge probably got that information from there.
We'll see.
But what it seems to me is that.
And we want everyone to go vote.
Everybody, especially if you're in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado, Florida, Michigan, and Nevada.
You got to vote.
Just go vote.
Just go vote.
All right.
All right.
I voted today.
Did you have to wait online?
No, we voted FCC because we weren't going to be in Virginia.
Oh, okay.
Mr. Speaker, we'll talk to you again tomorrow, but you've been amazing.
Thank you for all your help throughout this entire season.
I'm looking forward to the Mars conversation.
Yeah, and thanks for, by the way, whenever I was wrong, telling me I was wrong.
I really appreciate the public humiliation I got this year.
No, the audience appreciates the candor of our friend.
I know.
Anyway, Mr. Speaker, thank you.
800-941 Sean, if you want to be a part of the program.
All right, listen, go vote.
This, as I said yesterday, Trump can win this.
It's difficult.
Nevada, Michigan, Florida, New Hampshire, Colorado, North Carolina, Ohio, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania.
Go vote.
Anyway, so Drudge headlines show what we thought would be the case.
It's still very, very early.
His headline is this election will be decided by evening voters.
And he says that Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Nevada are all showdown states at this point.
So if you're in Florida, if you're in the panhandle, you get to vote an hour later.
If you are in Jacksonville, if you're in Orlando, Tampa, the I-4 corridor, if you're in Southwest Florida, Fort Myers, Naples, if you're in Miami, Dade, if you're in West Palm Beach, wherever you happen to be, you know, your vote is really going to be important today.
And the same thing in Nevada.
Michigan probably now is in play.
Colorado is in play.
He also is up.
Hillary is up a little bit in Pennsylvania.
Trump, though, up in Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio.
That does not mean he's won.
That means you need to go vote.
Joining us now, 2016 presidential candidate Donald J. Trump.
How are you, sir?
Hi, Sean.
How are you?
Do I have to call you Mr. President if you win?
Do I have to say, sir?
You can call me whatever you want.
You are a special person, Sean, that I can tell you.
And your listeners know that for a long time.
How are you feeling today?
How do you feel about...
Well, I feel good.
I feel...
I feel, number one, you know, I had a marathon for about three weeks.
You were watching it where I was doing speeches in front of these people.
You're doing like 20 states to Hillary's one.
Yeah, I saw.
And, you know, that was good.
I got home at like 5 o'clock in the morning.
I actually started a speech at 12.30 in Michigan, and we had close to 30,000 people there.
You saw that.
It was amazing.
I did.
It was at the Grand Rapids.
You know, but I hear good results.
I hear a lot of good things.
I hope the people in the Florida panhandle get out and the great corridor get out.
That's going to be really good because I'm in Florida.
The I-4 corridor, yep.
Yeah, the I-4 corridor is where Florida's one in the last.
And the panhandle, I was just told if we can get the people in the panhandle out and the corridor out, the I-4 corridor, we're going to win Florida.
So whatever you can do, folks, if you're listening, get out there and vote.
Get out there.
You know, and it also goes for Colorado.
It goes for Michigan.
I mean, the fact that you put Michigan in play, and maybe at the end of the night, who knows, Pennsylvania, what I'm hearing is massive turnout everywhere.
Right.
The first wave of exit polling data will come in in about a little over a half hour.
Good.
So we'll have some.
But I'm going to tell you something.
Mr. Trump, I know this from doing this now for 30 years on radio.
And I'll never forget in 2004, the first wave of exit polls had John Kerry as the next president.
Right.
And Dick Cheney called my radio program.
I wouldn't say he was panicked, but he was resolved to try and motivate people to go vote for obvious reasons.
And they couldn't have been more wrong.
They were so wrong in these polls.
So I urge people, regardless of what comes out in these exit polls, don't pay attention to it.
You still go vote.
Right.
Well, I hear Michigan is very, very close, and it hasn't been in play for, you know, 30-some-odd years.
I hear that Florida is very, very close and that, again, the panhandle could get out and vote, and it would be really, really good, because those people are incredible people, and they're on our side.
And the I-4 or Corridor, if they get out and vote, we're going to win Florida.
But we have to get them really motivated to vote.
And motivated is to make America great again.
It's very simple, because that's what they want.
That's what they want.
But the panhandle is so important.
I was just told that by somebody, the panhandle, if they get out and vote.
So we'll see what happens.
But Colorado also is very, very close.
And, you know, that's not exactly a Republican bastion in terms of a state, but it has been this year.
So we have some, I think we're going to have a very exciting time.
I think your show is going to get very high ratings tonight.
I don't have a show tonight.
Oh, that's terrible.
They did that to you.
Well, I've never done the show on election day.
Well, I would have watched you.
I watched you.
That would be nice if I got to say if you won, Fox News projects Donald J. Trump as the 45th president of the United States.
You would deserve it.
You know why, though?
I mean, for me, it was always about, you know, I kept pointing out to my audience how bad things have been.
I warned everybody how bad Obama would be, and I was more right than I thought.
You know, when you have 13 million more Americans on food stamps and 8 million more in poverty and the lowest home ownership rate in 51 years and the lowest labor participation rate since the 70s and the worst recovery since the 40s and you doubled the debt, how much worse can you get than that?
You know, there's something happening that's interesting.
And, you know, I've gotten up sort of interestingly, I've gotten up since the debates.
The debates seem to have helped me a lot.
And the poll numbers have gone up to a point where we're sort of even, and we'll find out if it was even because when we look at the crowds of people coming out, it doesn't feel even.
It feels better than that.
But there's something that's happening that's amazing, and that's Obamacare.
Obamacare is killing our families.
It's killing our businesses.
It's destroying families, destroying families.
And businesses are shutting down, and they're hiring a small number of employees part-time.
And people that never had a part-time job in their life and don't want it are working part-time jobs.
Obamacare, Sean, I mean, regardless of what happens tonight, Obamacare has to be repealed and totally replaced.
It's really destroying the fabric of our families and our businesses in this country.
You know, one of the things that I ⁇ there are two specific platforms of yours that I think would take this economy and throw it into overdrive.
One is energy independence.
There's so many millions of jobs.
And then you have the added bonus, of course, of not relying on countries that hate our guts for the lifeblood of our economy.
And the second thing that I never liked this rich versus poor narrative under your tax plan reduced from seven brackets to three brackets, you know, you also have the repatriation of trillions of dollars, the lowest corporate tax rate.
If corporations could bring back those trillions, wouldn't they be building factories in Michigan, manufacturing centers in Michigan, and Ohio and Wisconsin and Minnesota and Pennsylvania?
Well, Sean, we're lowering taxes substantially.
As you know, we're making, I call it simplification.
We're bringing it from seven brackets to three.
I mean, right now, people can't even do their own tax returns because it's so complicated.
We're simplifying it and really substantially lowering it.
And we're lowering business from 35%, the business tax, from 35% down to 15%.
But the other thing, Sean, is we're getting rid of the unnecessary regulations.
We're being regulated out of business.
Our businesses are leaving the country between taxes and being over-regulated.
And, you know, I think this country is just going to, it's going to be a, it's going to be a machine for jobs.
And, you know, you're going to be very proud of it.
I know you've always loved it, but a lot of people are liking it more and more.
We have to do it.
We're stagnant.
We are going to go.
It's horrible.
It's horrible.
It's very bad.
We have nearly 50 million Americans on food stamps.
We have nearly 50 million Americans in poverty.
Now, that is it just makes me so angry because we have so much more potential than that.
And, you know, here Obama comes in with all the hope and promises, and then he laughs off.
I guess those shovel-ready jobs weren't so shovel-ready.
And he robs our kids and grandkids blind.
He opened up the piggy bank and smashed it open.
And I haven't even talked about foreign policy.
Let me ask you this question.
You have traveled more than you probably ever imagined you would in the last year and a half.
That's true.
In a lifetime.
Has this changed you?
Well, I'll tell you, I've learned a lot.
You know what I've learned more than anything else?
The people in this country are amazing.
The spirit, the potential, the talent.
Now, we're being led down the wrong path.
We're being led horribly.
But the people in this country are amazing.
They're great people.
They love the country.
They're discouraged because their whole, so much has been taken away.
And, you know, as I mentioned, Obamacare and the high taxes and everything else.
But the potential of this country is really the thing that I think I've felt more than anything else.
And I've been doing this now for a year and a half.
The press is very dishonest, extremely dishonest.
And I'm not saying everybody, including you, by the way, but tremendous, I mean, the stories that are written.
Can you believe CNN feeding questions to Hillary?
Can you believe CNN asking the DNC what they should be asking you in interviews?
Good grief.
And you know what?
See, by the way, what's going on about that is there's hardly any publicity that I've seen that Hillary Clinton is dishonest.
I've seen tremendous amount.
Look, if you were going to West Point or Annapolis or the AIR Force Academy and you got the questions to attest or questions to they would, they would and if you didn't report it you would be thrown out of the school immediately.
Yep, they have an honorary.
Never reported.
Forget about Donna Brazil.
Who cares about Donna Brazil?
Donna Brazil got these in some cases, in some cases probably went direct, but it she never, she never, sorry.
There's a phone call coming in.
Never, she never reported this and that's so bad.
That's so bad and nobody writes.
Have you seen any stories like I imagine there's some.
I mean they talk about Donna Brazil but nobody says that Hillary went into those debates, had the questions, had the answers and never reported it.
Can you imagine if anyone ever gave me the questions and I gave them to you, I'd be crucified.
It would be the reinstitution of the electric chair for both of us.
We'd be sitting together and it would be on live television.
Exactly.
It would be live television on CNN.
Exactly right.
You know, I will say this.
I'm actually getting more data as we come.
And from the people that I'm hearing, this election tonight is going to be not only a massive turnout, this is extremely close.
Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire.
And if you win those states, you can be the president.
And, you know, I know that from my perspective is I just hate to see a country like ours, as great as our country can be, suffer needlessly.
And we've been suffering because of, you know, look at how corrupt, you know, I don't know if you've been following WikiLeaks for the last number of weeks I've been putting all the WikiLeaks developments on the screen on my TV show.
And I'm like, has anyone in America besides me, I'm like an island unto myself covering all of this?
And it shows such deep corruption in our political system.
It really, as bad as I've always thought it is, I never thought it was this bad.
Well, I'm amazed how little it's covered at all, the WikiLeaks.
I mean, some of those statements are unbelievable, the corruptness, even the knowledge into things like how the media works with the campaign, the DNC, how they're working together.
And, you know, give me the questions.
How do you want it?
They send stories to people to check them out.
Do you like them?
I mean, it's just nobody ever heard of a thing like this.
How do you like this story?
Do you want to make any changes?
I've never seen anything like it.
And the press is really hardly covering it, the mainstream.
It's so disgusting.
One of the things, unfinished business, I can tell you from my perspective, is I am going to take all of this information after the election, and I am going to go after them so hard that there is, I'm going to start a, I'm going to make sure every single American understands how the so-called objective media.
Now they say, well, Hannity, you give opinion.
I give opinions because that's what my job is.
I tell everybody that I have an opinion.
I'm not hiding it.
I'm not covering it up, but I'd never feed you a question.
I mean, that's that's insane from, you know, before a debate and CNN is asking the DNC for questions.
It sounds to me and I've known you this with you.
You and I, we like each other and we respect each other professionally and everything else.
There is no chance, if you were hosting a debate, there is zero chance that you would give me questions.
You would.
Zero.
They'd never let me host the television.
I don't even think you'd think about it.
I wouldn't.
You know, in all fairness.
So, I mean, look, what's taking place is horrible.
And then you see the 33,000 emails deleted.
And after getting a subpoena from the United States Congress, and nothing happens, and you see General Cartwright's going to go to jail for five years, maybe, for doing nothing by comparison.
Yeah.
Well, you know, I interviewed yesterday on this program, Kathleen Saussier, and her son, Christian Saussier, now just got sentenced to a year in jail.
What did this kid do?
He took six pictures of a submarine that he was proud to work in.
He now had to leave his one-year-old baby, his wife, and his mother, and he's now spending a year in jail, and she gets away with.
And he's a submarine, Sean.
An old submarine.
If Russia or China wanted those, probably they've got them from 20 years ago.
No, no, this is an old, pretty old submarine, as I understand it.
But think of it.
Clinton sends stuff through her maid, I guess from the Philippines, right?
Through the maid.
By the way, a crime.
You know, just the mishandling of information is a crime?
Forget everything else.
Just the mishandling.
And they let her off.
And by the way, that's another thing we're going to deal with.
And I'll tell you one other thing I'm going to deal with post-election is a Republican party that frankly created you.
When all the primaries, when there's 17 of you and 65% of Republicans say they feel betrayed by their own party, there needs to be a little bit of introspection about what they did wrong.
And I would argue they don't fight.
They don't stand for anything.
They back down.
All of that.
But listen, I bet you can't wait if you win to get things turned around in this country.
I know how you work.
I know how your mind works.
I bet you won't even take a day off if you win, would you?
Well, you know, even since we talked, I've been thinking so much about what's wrong.
And, you know, to a large extent, it's a lack of common sense.
These leaders, they have no common sense.
You know, I talk about Mosul, where they announced they're going in.
Now you see how tough it is, right?
They're really fighting.
And the leaders that they were trying to get, they left four months ago.
But I talk about that a lot, where it's just inconceivable to me.
They want to go and attack Mosul.
Why do you have to announce it?
You know, it's unbelievable.
Remember the elements of surprise, the old days with study or whatever.
And can you imagine General MacArthur and Patton and all these great girls?
Let me ask you a question as we're closing here.
I always say kiddingly at the speeches, they're spinning in their grave when they see this, right?
Do you think it's horrible?
It's a lack of common sense in addition to everything else.
I watched you last night.
You said if you do win, and we're going to know in a number of hours now, that you want to be the president for all Americans.
Can you bring the country together?
We can absolutely.
Our country is so divided, racially, economically.
It's so divided, and we can do it.
You know, Obama has been a divider.
He's been an absolute divider.
And now all he's doing is campaigning.
You know, she can't get a crowd, so she either has to go get Jay-Z, which, and in all fairness, using the N-word and the F-word.
You know, people are leaving his thing.
His language is so bad.
A lot of these political people are in there, and they're hearing the words.
And you know the words I'm talking about.
And she's offended about you.
Listen, I don't mean to interrupt you.
Good luck, Mr. Trump.
It's been an honor.
You have worked so hard.
We're proud of you, and we're really hoping you pull this off tonight.
Good luck.
We'll see, Sean, and you take care of yourself, and I appreciate everything.
All right, sir.
Thank you.
All right, 800.
All states are in play.
This election will be decided tonight.
Go vote.
All right, here we go.
This is Election Day.
Final hour of the program.
I'm not going to even listen this year to the exit polling data that comes in.
And you say, what do you know, Hannity?
You're scaring me.
No, this is not.
The polling data doesn't come in for another nine minutes, and that's when news organizations begin to get information.
Now, look, exit polling data in 2004, right here on this program, it showed that John Kerry was going to be elected president, and they couldn't have been more wrong.
So I don't trust it.
And my gut, my heart, my soul says that this is a very different election year than any other.
And I don't think anybody knows.
There's too many wild cards, too many independents in this race for any of us to know.
I think probably Drudge has it right, and that is that it is so close everywhere.
And especially in, look, I think this may come down again to Florida.
It may come down to the panhandle.
It may come down to the six electoral votes in Nevada.
Michigan appears to be in play.
Colorado appears to be a showdown.
Michigan a showdown.
Florida showed down.
Nevada a showdown.
And I'm going to work on that assumption.
I'm also told that outside of Philly, the turnout in Pennsylvania is massive today.
So I'm not in the prediction business.
As I said yesterday, I think Trump can win.
His path is very difficult.
I've never been Pollyannish.
John McLaughlin, pollster, founder of McLaughlin and Associates, he's with us.
Doug Shoan, pollster, author, political analyst, and Fox News contributor.
How are you guys?
And how are you feeling today?
Doing fine.
Doing fine.
Sean, I think your analysis is a fair one.
I've seen what's been available.
I think it does suggest a very close race.
Everything now is reporting that I'm seeing the Secretary, but it's all within the margin of error.
And as you said, there has been a systematic bias in the exit polls to the Democrats for a number of years.
That's not to say the Secretary didn't win or Donald Trump didn't win, but at this point, it's too close to call.
But if Trump does get Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, and Ohio, this is a game on.
I never said it isn't game on.
I'm just saying at this point, it's too close to call.
Yeah.
And what are your thoughts, John McLaughlin?
What are you seeing today?
I think you're going to see a record turnout, and you're going to see four years ago, you had 129 million voters come out, and this time you're going to see maybe 140, 150 million come out.
And even in these last couple hours, as you said, whether it's Central Florida, whether it's the voters to vote, the panhandle.
You know, I was part of the CBS radio, because they told me that Facebook radio.
I was the CBS radio exit poll team where I was the token Republican, and you had Jeff Garon, who was the Democrat pollster.
And we saw the exit polls coming in at 3 o'clock, and the Democrats were calling us, trying to get us to make a call for gore.
And we're like, you know, the exit poll's wrong.
They've got too many African Americans.
They don't have enough Cubans.
When you make the adjustments, it's a dead even race.
It's not Gore plus three.
It's dead even.
And so we held off making the call.
The TV side made the call, which was a historic error.
And, you know, people actually drove home when they heard the call.
But today, I think people are just going, they're ignoring the polls.
They hear it's a close race, and they're voting, you know, for their heart.
And you have lines in places, places like on Long Island, Pete King was telling me that they're double to triple what they've normally been in those hours of the day.
And Republicans are out there.
And you're hearing it from the Trump people in Ohio that the votes are up in the same ex-urban counties that George W. Bush carried it when they thought John Kerry was going to win that election in 04, as you mentioned.
So America's voting right now, and it's making a lot of the Democrat pollsters very nervous because their little models and their forecast of having a plus six or seven Democrat electorate may be in jeopardy today where Donald Trump's bringing in a new coalition to win this election.
You know, a friend of ours, I know you know Matt Cowrey, he's been in the business.
He knows Georgia and Florida probably as good as anybody.
And his interpretation was Hillsborough County, Tampa turned out early on Election Day.
And in 2012, they had 72% of all voters.
And he pointed out as of 1.30 today, and I didn't get an update from him since, that the vote in Hillsborough had already reached 63%.
And he said that he thinks that that means that the turnout will exceed 2012 levels, which seems to be the case not only in Florida, but around the country.
Is that what both of you are seeing?
Well, seeing that, and I think John's point is exactly right.
If we get turnout beyond the conventional expectations and models, I assume those voters, Sean, I suspect, John, you're agreeing or postulating this, would be Trump voters because it would be the people not picked up by normal polling, normal modeling, or normal expectations.
He finished by saying, I can only remember two times we've had that kind of way of voting, 80 with Reagan, 08 with Obama, and Secretary Clinton is no Obama.
That's what he said.
Yep, and I think you're seeing that.
Even like I know Matt's from Georgia, we've known each other for decades, and I do work for Governor Deal there, but I was talking to Congressman Doug Collins today, and he says the same thing.
You have a historic level of voting in Hall County, where he's from in Georgia.
But when you look at Florida, when you look at the early vote, the people who voted in 2012 that hadn't voted yet, they're Republicans, out of that 1.7 million, they're Republicans 46%, Democrats 40%.
They'll come back in.
But then instead of an 8 million turnout, it probably is a million voters.
Like we know from research, there's a million voters in Florida who voted in 08, who voted in 2010, but walked away from the election in 2012, not because they didn't want to vote for Obama, but they didn't like Romney, so they didn't vote.
There was a million of them.
They're still there.
There's more people like that.
So you're going to see, I think you'll see 9 million voters come out in Florida, and that's to Donald Trump's benefit.
You know, what's amazing about this?
I mean, here it is.
It's Election Day on the East Coast.
It's 5.13, and we still can't say with any certainty who's going to win this election.
We do have reports, by the way, of some Trump ballots being automatically switched to Hillary.
This is CBS News in Pittsburgh, that ballots cast for Trump are being automatically switched to Hillary Clinton.
And we have another report out of Pennsylvania as well in Philadelphia this morning that this was in the Washington Times, that the Philly Republican City Committee chairman said he received at least 40 reports of Democratic Party-sponsored poll workers turning away Republican-sponsored workers.
So, you know, I guess this happens every election year, right?
Well, let's just say if there is not the massive vote in the cities, particularly the city of Philadelphia, for the secretary, then Pennsylvania will go from being in play to certainly leaning red.
The issue I'd say, Sean, is to bring the current president, the formal president, former president, the first lady and the former first lady, who happens to be the current candidate to Philadelphia last night has to be a sign that the Clintons' internal polling is showing the kind of slippage we're seeing in Pennsylvania.
Yeah, there was a suit filed by Trump about election fraud, and he filed the suit against Clark County Registrar in Nevada for keeping polls open past the time they were supposed to close during early voting.
And they, you know, obviously may be setting up a way to challenge all the results in Nevada based on that decision to allow people who are in line to vote.
But I'm not sure what's going to happen or if that ever works out.
How do you see this playing out, John?
I mean, last time I talked to you, you were 60-40 Trump, and you, Doug, were 60-40 Hillary.
And I was 50-50.
I'm still 50-50.
I'm moving to 55-45 Hillary in the direction of 50-50, Sean.
And with me, I would have said after Comey's letter over this weekend, I would have said 50-50.
But today, when I'm seeing in the turnout levels, I'm like, this is a very good sign for that 60-40.
It may have been a very good guess on that day.
But, you know, it's one of those things where The new voters that are coming out are the ones that they didn't expect coming out are coming out on their own with their passion.
And when Hillary Clinton, as Doug said, and you've mentioned, when she had to be in Pennsylvania the night before the election or the day before the election, she had to be in Michigan.
They're totally playing defense.
Are you now?
Can I then say you're at 65 Trump wins?
I'm asking.
I'm not putting words in your mouth.
I'm asking a question.
I think it's like 60-40.
They still, you've got to give them respect.
They have a very good machine.
Yeah, I agree with you.
As far as far as turnout goes, I agree with you.
Campaign tactics.
And John, I understand that.
The same point with Sean.
The upside is a good turnout machine.
The downside is what Sean has been saying.
There's a very discreet but limited appeal to Secretary Clinton's vote.
It doesn't expand easily.
She has a core constituency and a lot of people who don't like her and would never vote for her.
By the way, I am hearing the Florida panhandle is really in need of getting out there.
That if there's a low vote turnout in the Florida panhandle, I mean, that's key for Donald Trump to take the state of Florida.
Yeah, that would be a good idea.
And so I got one report that the panhandle turnout was a little low at this point.
They still have a couple hours to get out and vote in the panhandle.
And that would be, John, you know this area well.
Right.
And what you have to realize, too, in a lot of these states with the early voting, the reason the early voting was up, it had a lot of Republicans already out there.
And in Florida, you have registration, and they do a very good job of getting their vote out.
I was talking to Congressman Mario Diaz Blood earlier from Day County, and the Cubans are with Trump.
And they're coming out today.
And Trump's kind of surprised that he's going to get more of the Hispanic vote nationally than people expect from the panhandle.
That's a poll in Florida.
I apologize.
Sorry, not the exit poll.
The last poll I saw in Florida of Hispanics, and John, I apologize for interrupting you, was 5434 for the Secretary.
And that said to me that the record number of early voters among Hispanics, if it's only plus 20 for Secretary Clinton, to me, that's a win for Donald Trump.
Right.
Why do you say that?
That sounds like a big number.
Well, because you would expect, given what Donald Trump said about Hispanics and the way the media played it, that this would have been a community, notwithstanding conservative Cubans, would have gotten 65, 70, 75 for the Secretary.
And if she's only winning by 20 points in a state where the Hispanics are 15% of the electorate, that's a net plus three statewide, which I think, John, you'd agree.
I just got some information.
And look, I've heard that Florida is looking, you know, it's neck and neck.
And I know that the only concern of the Trump campaign is Destin, Panama City Beach, Fort Walton Beach, Santa Rosa Beach, Pensacola Beach.
I think it's Perdido Beach or Perdito Key.
So if you're in any of those areas, remember, you have an extra hour to vote based on the time differences there.
And that's really, apparently, that might make a big difference tonight.
You know what would make a difference, Sean?
Seven out of ten of our voters have Facebook, and they have emails.
If people that have friends in those areas were to go to Donald Trump's, go to Donald Trump's Facebook page, they could take one of Donald Trump's calls to get out to vote today and share it with their friends.
They could share with 300 people in a nanosecond.
And if you've got friends in those areas, share the Donald Trump Facebook post to get out and vote.
And we're going to go to the next one.
By the way, this just grew.
Drudge is saying that this election is going to be decided by evening voters.
That there are projected 140 million total.
Now, that's coming directly from the exit polls, and it's up on DrudgeN.
Do you guys interpret that number?
Very good sign for Trump.
You think that benefits Trump?
Yes.
Yeah, I think all these polls and models underestimate his vote.
You saw that when we had that in Israel with B.B. Neck Yahoo, when they had it in Brexit.
I mean, it's something where very good signs for Trump, but it means that they really got to go out and vote.
And you've got literally tens of millions of people right now across the country deciding to vote, and they're hearing that their vote can make a difference.
Just as they heard the polls were closed, when you hear the polls are close, there's more meaning your vote.
You go out and vote.
And that was something that the Trump campaign was trying to get out to enough people in the Clinton campaign.
Didn't want anybody to know.
All right.
I just got a note from Don Jr.
He said things are looking really good from our perspective.
He said, except for the Florida panhandle.
And he said, I'm sending out an alert call to action.
If you're in the Florida panhandle, you know, get your friends and families and loved ones out, and we'll win the state of Florida.
That's what he just said.
So, you know, I don't know what he's looking at, but 140 million total votes, which I think would be a huge record, right?
Right.
And hopefully Dan Razz is not working tonight, so he can't call it for Gore.
By the way, the one thing that has come out of the exit polls is there is a clear sign tonight that the political map could be reshaped tonight.
Does that help Donald Trump?
Yes, absolutely.
All right.
All right.
You guys stay online.
You're not going anywhere.
Sorry.
You're staying around.
Graham and our final half hour on this election day.
And, you know, all we're hearing is that there's going to be a record turnout.
We're learning that no surprise here, women advantage for Hillary, men advantage for Trump.
90% of GOP voters, it looks like, will go for Trump.
90% of Democratic voters will go for Hillary.
And, you know, it doesn't look like the Never Trump movement is significant.
Also, it looks like in Utah that this Admiral guy collapsed.
So we'll watch that somewhat closely.
And Evangelicals, it looks like 60 to 70% for Trump.
You know, again, I'm not a big, big believer in exit polls because they've been proven wrong and wrong again.
I think my interpretation of all things is this: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire are all tight.
That's what I can tell you.
But 140 million total expected to vote.
So I have no idea, even at this late hour, I have no clue how this is going to turn out.
John McLaughlin, how do you interpret these exit polls?
What little data we do have?
You know, I think if you voted for Trump today, you've got to go to your Facebook page and say, I voted for Trump and share with every one of your friends saying the race is too close to call.
Get out and vote right now.
And do the same thing with your Twitter account or go and share Donald Trump's Facebook post and tweet to go out and vote because those votes could make the difference.
Because if, you know, these exit polls, a lot of times they've been wrong, and it may depend.
It really matters to vote.
And like I remember in 96, 20 years ago, Steve Forbes, we were supposedly tied in the exit polls, but I told Hal Bruno, we have 20,000 absentees there.
We're going to win.
And I know the Republicans have an extra 100,000 absentees, more than the Democrats in Arizona right now.
So we just have to make sure the next couple hours our vote keeps going out, that we take nothing for granted.
The race is too close to call.
Sean, do you have a number on independents?
You reported Democrats and Republicans.
Do you have a number on how independents are going?
No, I got nothing on independence.
I could tell you right now what it's showing.
I mean, it is showing Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio are neck and neck.
That's about it.
I don't even know what to make.
I don't even know what to make.
I don't know how to interpret that.
I mean, and then you have a massive turnout that we've never had before, and it seems extraordinarily polarized more than any other time.
Can I give you an interpretation?
Yeah.
Here's what I say.
It's fragmentary.
But with Democrats and Republicans basically breaking the same from what you're suggesting, you expect from the numbers we've seen so far in the regular polls that independents will go five to ten points for Donald Trump.
When you net that all out, and a lot of assumptions here, we're effectively in something akin to a statistical tie.
Who wins in a statistical tie then?
You know, I give a slight advantage to Hillary just based on the electoral map, which we've all talked about, but it's a very, very slight advantage.
And could Donald Trump win?
Each hour, the numbers are moving in his direction because the late vote is usually a Republican vote.
So basically, Drudge has been right all day.
This election is going to be decided by evening voters in all of these states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Nevada.
And with a slight advantage now in all those states except Iowa and Ohio for the Secretary, if the late vote goes for Donald, that means we're going to be effectively neck and neck virtually everywhere.
What do you take, John?
It's going to also mean that we keep the Senate.
And places like John Fasser and the Hudson Valley against a very ultra-liberal radical Carver Vegas effort teach out.
The polls are open until 9 o'clock.
For every point Trump goes up in the ballot, it helps him win.
So it's not only, because I think the exit polls have a model that's based on 2012, that's a bias against Republicans.
If we break the model, and Trump has a new coalition going out, when they start counting votes, if these people go and vote right now and go between now and the time in these other states as it goes across the country, if they go and vote right now, we'll have a new electoral coalition that would give him the chance to win and to straighten this country out.
So we have a good chance of winning.
If these exit polls are right, I think it's an advantage to him, definitely right.
Even though it's Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, all that close?
All these states had millions of voters each for tens of millions together who didn't vote four years ago because they didn't like Romney or they didn't like Barack Obama, and they walked away from it.
They're coming into the election right now because they're tired of basically having a flat economy, having America weak in the world, having bad health care or no health care or premiums going up.
I mean, it's just, you're seeing, you're basically seeing the working-class Americans and working middle class really take power into their own hands, go vote today and send Washington a message.
What about the 20% saying the reason they're voting is to oppose the other candidate?
What do we make of that?
John, whatever happens in this election, this is not going to end today.
We are going to be a polarized, divided nation.
And whether it's Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton, the fighting is only going to intensify, I believe.
I actually think, you know, what do you think, John?
I think people are going to be relieved the campaign's over.
But on the other hand, you know, I think Hillary Clinton made a case that, you know, if Donald Trump wins, he's going to accept the results.
So we just got to make sure he wins.
Yeah, I think that's all true.
Do you really think at this late hour that the has there ever been a case where the people that you guys can recall that so many states are saying that the evening voters will decide the election?
No.
Never seen anything at this point this close.
Yeah, I mean, we had to have to go back to Reagan.
You'd have to go back to Reagan.
That was a surprise to a lot of people right then.
I mean, you'd have to go back to then because it was a historic election.
This is going to be a historic election.
Yeah.
I just go ahead.
Hang on.
I just got a note from my buddy Matt Tower.
He says, he said, does anyone have blah, blah, blah, blah, any shockers?
Yeah, he's saying the same thing.
He thinks the panhandle needs to get out.
In other words, he's saying that apparently there's a shortage of vote out of the panhandle, which stays open an hour later, and that that would generally be a bigger Trump area.
That's the Pensacola, Fort Walton Beach, Destin area of Florida.
You think that makes a difference?
65, 35 at least Trump advantage.
Yeah, that's it.
Two to one Republican area.
Yeah, and do you think that could make a difference?
It could.
2000, when they made the bad call and they said, you know, Gord won Florida, and it was an hour before they closed the panhandle, about 15,000 voters based on the estimates didn't vote.
And they would have voted 2 to 4 for Bush, and he would have won Florida by 10,000 instead of having that horrendous recount.
So if the message goes out to, like I said, if you know people in that part of Florida or North Florida, just tell them to go out and vote.
Hit your Twitter accounts, hit your Facebook, and get them out.
Send them a text message.
Doug, you made a decision that you couldn't vote for Hillary Clinton.
Why?
Because the range of challenges she faces, both legal, political, and I dare say, in terms of being able to fashion a coalition, made me feel that we're going to get good luck with her.
I disagree on a lot of issues with Donald Trump.
I said, I can't vote.
And I think we're going to get investigations of the FBI, the Justice Department, Secretary Clinton.
And I don't see how any of this is constructive.
I just couldn't cast personally an affirmative vote for this.
No.
You know what's amazing?
How did we get to the point that everything seems to always come down to Florida?
Because everybody moves there.
It's a microcosm of the U.S.
Yeah, you know what the problem is, though?
You got people from New York, New Jersey, and Illinois all moving down to Florida, and they're taking, they ruined their states.
Now they go down to Florida and they're ruining Florida.
Well, hold it, Sean.
You and I both own some property in Florida.
I don't think we've ruined it.
Well, I mean, but for example, let's say we're in Florida, you know, in our old age together, then I guess what's going to happen is you're going to cancel out my very well-educated vote, Doug.
And that's irritating.
And I'll beat you at croquet every time.
Is that what we're going to be doing in our old age, croquet?
And complaining about the younger generation, exactly.
Yeah.
All right, guys.
Thank you.
I'm going to let you go.
I really appreciate it.
Thank you both for being with us.
Let's get a few calls in here on this election day, 800 9.1.
Sean is on number.
You want to be a part of the program.
Amy is in Colorado, probably too close to call.
What's going on, Amy?
How are you?
Hey, Sean.
Thank you so much for taking my call.
Such an honor to be on the same program as Newt Gindrich and the future president.
It's going to be awesome.
And Bonnie, you know, Colorado is looking pretty good, at least where I am.
And El Faso, they have been campaigning their hearts out here, Mr. Pence and Mr. Trump.
So, you know, hopefully that'll help.
And I've been encouraging all my friends to get out.
I've even offered to take a couple of them to the polling place to turn in their ballots.
So we're working hard out here.
And, you know, can't have Hillary.
Definitely not.
Look, you know, it is amazing that even in this late hour, and thank you for the call, that all the states that I've been telling you leading up to today are all in play.
And I really do kind of agree with Drudge right now that I think the evening voters are going to make the difference here.
And that means in every one of these swing states, you know, I actually said yesterday, I think Florida is going to be decided by like one or two points or less.
I think North Carolina, same thing.
One or two points or less.
Pennsylvania, same thing.
Ohio may end up being the same thing.
Same thing in Michigan.
You know, it's crazy.
New Hampshire, same thing.
And then you've got Colorado.
And then you've got Nevada.
Then you've got Arizona.
It's mind-numbing.
Even with a record total projected outcome here, it's crazy.
Anyway, let's go to, let's see here, Pittsburgh PA, Joseph.
Joseph, how are you, sir?
You would be amazing if Pennsylvania ever went red.
That would be amazing.
I'm doing real good, Sean.
Thanks for taking my call.
And basically, I called in.
I've been at the Trump Victory Center in Western PA, and they have reports from five minutes after the polls open this morning to the electronic voting machines changing people's votes from Trump to Hillary.
We've had 40 reported cases, and I think it was in the Philly area.
It's the same thing happening in Pittsburgh, too.
Yep, it's happening.
It's mostly heavy Democrat areas, because I think that's where they can hide the cheating.
Tell you the truth.
It's bug stealing, if you ask me.
Yeah, by the way, 62% of people are bothered by the emails.
Gee.
You know, look, we're going to get the country we deserve by the end of the night.
But I think what Donald Trump started, whether he wins or loses, this is just the beginning.
And the Republican Party, as I said at the start of the show, you know what?
That old Republican order is dead.
All right, let's stay in, let's say hi to Ryan in New Hampshire.
Ryan, another big important swing state.
It may all come down to you.
How are you?
Hey, good.
How about you, Sean?
What's going on?
I'm good.
I'll just let you know the voting line for the people that are registered to vote is a little short tonight around 5 o'clock, but the line is out the door for the people that are newly registered voters.
So I could go either ways, Bill, but people are hearing that it's going to be close and getting out there and voting tonight.
Yeah, listen, that's what I keep hearing everywhere.
And I hear that there's record numbers.
I hear people reporting to me.
The lines have been massively long around blocks and everything in between.
Anyway, appreciate the call.
Back to Pennsylvania.
What's that?
Don Jr. is with us.
Donald Trump Jr., how are you, sir?
You got about a minute.
I'm back.
I'm just calling.
I want you to get everyone out.
Florida Panhandle, all of those states, all of the ones that are close.
Just get them out, Sean.
Florida, here are the states.
Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico.
That's it.
And every indication so far is that the evening voters will decide this election.
Evening voters tonight will decide.
Evening voters in North Carolina, in Florida.
You're right.
The panhandle numbers seem a little weak, and that's all Trump territory.
They better get their ass out.
They have an extra hour.
And that also includes Nevada, Colorado's in play, New Hampshire's in play, Pennsylvania's in play, and Michigan's in play.
That's what I'm hearing.
All of them are in play.
We're doing great in some places, but we need everyone to turn up.
Some are going to be really tight, and it's going to make a difference.
And, Sean, we've discussed this a lot.
This isn't a four-year election.
This is a 40-year election.
We can't lose the Supreme Court.
We can't allow liberal justices to be activists from the bench doing whatever politically correct whim happens to be that minute and that day.
That's not the America we know.
That's not the America our founding fathers wanted.
We got to get out there and fight.
But everyone has to get out there.
They have to bring their friends.
They have to let their voice be heard.
My father's been fighting for the working class of this country that haven't had a voice in decades.
He's been out there nonstop, six, seven states a day, crushing it for them.
They got to get out.
They got to turn out.
Don't let Hillary Clinton take over the White House.
Oh, God.
Could you imagine four years of that?
I couldn't handle it.
And you said it.
If they sit at home, then they own that.
When their rights are infringed, when you eliminate the Second Amendment, when you have excessive regulation and government in every aspect of your life, if you sat at home, you own that forever.
Unfortunately, all of us will have to deal with the consequences of that, not just those people.
So we got to get out there.
We got to make our voice heard.
Let's crush this thing.
Yeah.
Well, I hear there are long lines everywhere.
This is my last appeal.
Thank you, Don Jr.
If you were in any of these swing states, all I know is I have one headline for where we are at this moment, and that is this election: Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, especially Florida and the Panhandle, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, you guys, Ohio, you will decide the election.
