Real Coffe - Scott Adams - Episode 1495 Scott Adams: WARNING: This Live Stream Will Change Your Opinion About Vaccination Risk. Don't Watch it. Aired: 2021-09-10 Duration: 31:44 === Warning: This Could Kill You (04:06) === [00:00:00] Good morning, everybody. It's time for the best... [00:00:04] Oh, not this time. [00:00:06] Sorry. Don't I always tell you that this is the best part of your day? [00:00:11] But not today. Not for all of you. [00:00:14] For some of you, I'm going to blow the top off your head. [00:00:19] For many of you, you're going to get really pissed off if you watch this. [00:00:24] And some of you might die. [00:00:27] Let me say that again, in case you thought that was a joke. [00:00:31] Watching this live stream could kill you. [00:00:35] Literally. Because I'm going to say some things today that I do not intend, because it would be unethical in my opinion. [00:00:43] I do not intend to change your mind about any medical decisions. [00:00:49] But the content will do that. [00:00:52] It's not my intention. [00:00:55] It's just, I'm going to give you some truth about something that maybe you haven't thought about, and it will have the effect of changing some of your minds. [00:01:04] Don't watch this if you don't want a cartoonist to accidentally change your medical decisions. [00:01:15] This warning is 100% real. [00:01:20] It's not reverse psychology. [00:01:22] It's not a marketing trick. [00:01:24] I'm not trying to get you to watch it because it's naughty or provocative. [00:01:29] It actually could fucking kill you. [00:01:32] Do you hear that? [00:01:33] Just hear that as clearly as you can. [00:01:36] Watching this live stream could fucking kill you. [00:01:40] Now I feel like I've done my ethical duty. [00:01:44] None of this is a joke. [00:01:46] None of this is a joke. [00:01:48] Could fucking kill you. [00:01:50] I'm not trying to. That's certainly not my intention. [00:01:54] But we're just going to try to talk about some truth and see what happens, all right? [00:01:58] So bail out now if you don't want to be any part of the vaccination persuasion, even accidentally. [00:02:06] And I know a lot of you don't like that topic, and I would invite you to come back tomorrow, and I'll talk less about it. [00:02:13] But before that, all you need to enjoy this to the maximum extent is a cup or mug or a glass, a tank or a chalice or a canteen jug or a flask, a vessel of any kind. [00:02:24] Fill it with your favorite liquid. [00:02:27] I like coffee. And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine to the day, the thing that makes everything better. [00:02:34] It's called the simultaneous sip. [00:02:36] It makes everything better except the coronavirus. [00:02:39] Go! All right. [00:02:47] Now, I'm going to be easing into the topic. [00:02:52] All right? You'll know it when it happens. [00:02:55] And I'm going to repeat the warning because people are joining and missed the original warning. [00:03:01] But I'll repeat the warning in a little bit. [00:03:03] But first, did you know that today Akira the Don's album dropped featuring my vocals? [00:03:13] And if that sounds weird... [00:03:17] It's not. Turns out it's a new genre of music in which Akira the Don takes samples from podcasts and uses that as the lyrical part, and then he adds the musical stuff in the back. [00:03:31] And you would be amazed how well that works. [00:03:34] Because the podcasts tend to be content that has some meaning, because he chooses it for that purpose. [00:03:43] And it's not just mine. I think Jordan Peterson's on there, some other people. [00:03:48] And check that out. [00:03:50] You will be surprised, right? [00:03:53] You will be surprised. [00:03:54] It's worth checking out only because, well, even if you didn't care musically, Check it out because it's a new genre and it's worth looking at just for that alone. === Fake News Alert (07:49) === [00:04:06] Well, Larry Elder got hit by an egg by a woman in a gorilla mask when he was campaigning for the governorship of California. [00:04:16] And as every smart person is asking today, would this be covered by the news exactly the same as If he were a Democrat, wouldn't all the news be, you know, it's a big racist thing, it's a gorilla mask, he's black, throws an egg at him? [00:04:38] Somebody's saying in the comments that the egg missed. [00:04:41] Well, if the egg missed, I guess the yolk is not on him. [00:04:47] All right. Yeah, this is one of those hypocrisy things that there's not much depth to the comment. [00:04:58] It's just every time you see an example where the news is clearly just propaganda... [00:05:05] Because the way they treat these things is so different left and right. [00:05:08] You just can't even take it seriously in any possible way. [00:05:13] Alright, here's a fake news alert. [00:05:16] Fake news alert. This comes to me via Twitter and Adam Dopamine. [00:05:24] Adam points out that the breathless reporting on Florida's COVID surge seamlessly shifted to stories about Mississippi and Louisiana. [00:05:36] Why is it that all that talk about Florida sort of, just sort of softly, while you weren't looking, sort of just started talking about two other states? [00:05:49] Because the surge collapsed. [00:05:55] That's why. The surge collapsed. [00:05:59] So whatever Florida is doing... [00:06:01] They had, I guess, three surges that were pretty bad. [00:06:05] But at the moment, it's going pretty well. [00:06:08] So watch your fake news. [00:06:11] Try to change your direction. [00:06:15] It's a little case of misdirection. [00:06:17] Hey, look at this hand. Look at this hand. [00:06:19] Forget about this one. [00:06:21] Look at this one. All right. [00:06:27] University of California professor is suing the school system. [00:06:33] Because he says he has natural immunity against COVID, but they're going to require him to get the vaccination anyway. [00:06:41] Now, how do you lose that argument? [00:06:46] Let's say you're smart enough to be a professor at Berkeley. [00:06:53] So it's a top university. [00:06:55] If you're a professor at a top university... [00:07:00] And your argument is pretty ironclad, which is that if you have natural immunity, you're better off than people who have two shots. [00:07:10] Now, how does he lose that argument? [00:07:14] I mean, maybe... [00:07:16] Seriously, how do you lose it? [00:07:19] It feels like that's the most slam-dunk argument anybody ever had. [00:07:24] Now, maybe it has something to do with you can't verify easily whether somebody has antibodies. [00:07:30] I can see maybe they'd require you to have an antibody test, and maybe that's not practical. [00:07:35] Because how do you really know somebody had COVID? They could just say they had it and not get the vaccination. [00:07:41] So there might be some practical reasons, but this guy's going to lose his job... [00:07:49] For not being protected against COVID when he is more protected than just about everybody on campus. [00:07:58] How does he lose this? [00:08:00] I mean, he might. He might. [00:08:02] That's the scary thing, right? [00:08:03] He might actually lose this. [00:08:06] I don't know how you could lose it, but he might. [00:08:12] Chris Saliza over at CNN. He's an opinion guy. [00:08:17] And he wrote this sentence on an opinion piece, and it was kind of shocking to see it. [00:08:22] He said, Have you seen that? [00:08:40] I don't think I've run into anybody who would admit to having rage about unvaccinated people. [00:08:48] Are you seeing that? [00:08:50] In your personal bubbles? [00:08:54] Because I think my audience doesn't really have much crossover with CNN, I don't think. [00:09:00] But I haven't seen anything like that. [00:09:05] And I'm pretty sensitive to hate. [00:09:08] You know, you can spot it pretty easily. [00:09:10] I haven't really seen it. But I'm going to guess there's some of it out there, because I doubt Chris Eliza is the one angry person about this topic. [00:09:21] Somebody says, I haven't seen it in real life, but you've seen it on social media. [00:09:24] Yeah, social media became the place where the outrage goes to thrive, right? [00:09:30] Yeah. All right, so there's that. [00:09:34] Let's talk about Biden's six-pronged plan. [00:09:36] I'm not going to get into the details. [00:09:37] You probably looked at it already. [00:09:39] But one of the clever things is he's using OSHA to push his mandatory vaccinations for at least people in the government, government workers. [00:09:51] And he's encouraging private companies to have mandates as well. [00:09:59] But OSHA is kind of a clever way to do it. [00:10:03] Would I be complaining if Trump had found this clever workaround to get something done? [00:10:10] Let's say it was something else. [00:10:11] Not the vaccinations, because that just becomes political as soon as you hear it. [00:10:15] But if I had heard that Trump used this clever workaround and I thought it was good for the country... [00:10:25] I don't know if I'd complain. [00:10:26] I probably wouldn't. [00:10:28] I'd probably say, well, yeah, he did what he had to do. [00:10:31] Cut through some red tape, used to work around. [00:10:34] It was good for the country. [00:10:35] So I don't think the question about whether OSHA has or has not authority, just personally, doesn't bother me that much. [00:10:45] I know I should, and I get the argument that if you become a dictator and you just start making up laws and finding some rationalization for them instead of using the system, everything could go to hell. [00:10:57] But I don't have the same rules during a pandemic. [00:11:02] If it's a pandemic, I give my government a little extra power because I want them to have it. [00:11:09] If this is one of their little extra powers that they took for themselves, I say that's within the scope of things I'm going to call acceptable during a pandemic. [00:11:20] Anything that lasts beyond the pandemic, we've got to talk about. [00:11:24] And if any of this happened outside the context of the pandemic, I'd be completely opposed to it. [00:11:29] But you throw in the crisis part. [00:11:32] And you could argue whether we're still in a crisis or not. [00:11:34] I think that's a fair argument at this point. [00:11:36] But anyway, I'm just telling you it doesn't bother me, but I do see the red flags. [00:11:42] So if you're telling me, Scott, Scott, Scott, you're not seeing the gigantic red flag here of the precedent it sets, I do see it. [00:11:49] But I just don't think that crisis examples are going to be as sticky as maybe you think. === Assumptions About Vaccination Risk (15:00) === [00:11:55] But I see the risk. All right. [00:12:00] I have to give you my warning once again. [00:12:02] I said it in the title. If you don't want to be convinced to get vaccinated, turn this off right now. [00:12:10] And I mean it. [00:12:11] It's not reverse psychology. [00:12:14] It's not a trick. [00:12:16] If you don't want to be accidentally convinced to get vaccinated, because that might happen, I'm not going to do it intentionally, because it's unethical for me to do that. [00:12:27] All right. Yeah, so with my blessing, those of you who don't want to be part of this, please sign off. [00:12:35] And come back tomorrow. [00:12:37] Come back tomorrow. But for those of you who stay, I'm going to blow your head right off. [00:12:44] For some of you. Okay? [00:12:47] Now, let me start with this. [00:12:51] If I ask you this question, most of you are reasonable people, and I know that you made your decisions about vaccinations or not based on reason and risk, and you thought it through. [00:13:01] Would you agree that all of you, no matter which decision you came by, would you agree with the statement that you thought it through? [00:13:09] In the comments, can you please confirm that? [00:13:12] You thought it through, right? [00:13:14] No matter what it was you decided, you thought it through. [00:13:16] And some of you came to different answers. [00:13:19] Now, second question. [00:13:22] Second question. [00:13:23] If I were to alter, and you accepted it, one of your biggest assumptions, could it change your opinion? [00:13:34] Now, I haven't told you what the assumption is yet, right? [00:13:36] So you can hold on that. [00:13:39] But if I were to change your most important assumption, could it change your opinion? [00:13:48] Just yes or no. If I change your assumptions, and you agree with that change, you go, oh yeah, I hadn't thought of it that way. [00:13:54] If I could do that, just one assumption, I'm not going to give you any new data. [00:14:00] No data will be presented. [00:14:03] I'm just going to change one assumption, and if that big assumption was central to your decision, could you change your mind? [00:14:12] Do you know what I'm doing to you right now? [00:14:15] Alright, I just primed you. [00:14:17] So I made you commit to a change in assumption that would change your opinion. [00:14:24] If I had not done that, it probably wouldn't. [00:14:27] Because confirmation bias would kick in. [00:14:30] And even if I successfully changed your assumption, you would just move to a different argument. [00:14:35] It wouldn't change your outcome. [00:14:37] Because people don't really change their minds based on new information. [00:14:41] But I just primed you. [00:14:44] And if you said, yes, Scott, if you change my most basic assumption, I could, I'm not guaranteeing it, but that would be a condition which could change my decision. [00:14:56] Now that you're primed, let's talk about some things, and I'm going to ease you into it, okay? [00:15:02] Now remember, if you're just joining us late, if you don't want to be talked into getting vaccinated, sign off now, because it might happen, all right? [00:15:12] Seriously, sign off if you don't want to be talked into it. [00:15:14] It would be unethical for me to talk you into it without adding any new information. [00:15:20] But I think I will add a new understanding in a minute. [00:15:23] We'll get to it, okay? I'm going to get to it. [00:15:27] There are a number of vaccinations that are already required, as most of you know. [00:15:30] If you're a kid in the United States and you want to go to school, the things you have to get would be included by seventh grade. [00:15:38] You've got to get tetanus, diphtheria, pertussis, booster. [00:15:42] You've got to get your Varticella, that's the chicken pox. [00:15:46] To get in kindergarten, you're required to have polio, diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, your first doses, measles, mumps, and rubella, the MMR, hepatitis B vaccination, and chicken pox, of course. [00:15:59] So those are all the ones that you're required to get. [00:16:05] Now, how many of you... [00:16:08] And the requirements vary by state. [00:16:11] So there's a big difference in how they're mandated. [00:16:16] So I'm not making any argument about them being similar in mandate. [00:16:21] So you got that? It has nothing to do with the government mandate. [00:16:25] I'm just saying that they are mandated in most states to go to school. [00:16:30] Now, apparently there are a number of people who find workarounds that they don't have to get vaccinated. [00:16:34] I heard there are 800,000 unvaccinated people in the country who don't even have these vaccinations. [00:16:40] So I guess you can get around it, but that's the situation. [00:16:43] Now, here's your assumption. [00:16:47] Speaking now to the people who have decided not to get vaccinated. [00:16:52] Is one of your assumptions that these other vaccinations... [00:16:56] And by the way, if you're anti-vax in general... [00:16:59] This has nothing to do with you. [00:17:01] If you're anti-vax for all vaccinations, I'm not even talking to you. [00:17:07] Nothing I say will be relevant to you. [00:17:09] If you've said no vaccinations, have a nice day. [00:17:13] You don't want to watch the rest of this. [00:17:14] There's no point in it. All right. [00:17:16] If you thought the childhood vaccinations are okay because they've been around so long that the side effects are well understood... [00:17:27] And the COVID vaccinations are newer. [00:17:31] So let's say your biggest reason for not getting vaccinated is that the traditional vaccinations have been around long enough that we would see all of the side effects and we'd have a really good understanding of the long-term risks. [00:17:44] Because how could you possibly know the long-term risks of a vaccination that just came out this year? [00:17:50] It's not possible, right? [00:17:52] So you've got the vaccination that comes out this year... [00:17:55] With completely unknown long-term risks, would you agree? [00:17:59] How many would agree with me, the statement that the COVID vaccinations have unknown long-term risk? [00:18:07] Everybody agree? We couldn't possibly know it. [00:18:10] You can't know the future, right? [00:18:12] Now, how many would agree with the next statement, that we do know the long-term risks of the childhood vaccinations? [00:18:22] Agree or disagree? We do know the long-term risks of the childhood vaccinations. [00:18:29] Go. Agree. [00:18:32] Disagree? Why would you disagree with that? [00:18:35] Not really? [00:18:37] Not really. They've been around for decades. [00:18:40] What do you mean? [00:18:42] Somebody says yes, yes. [00:18:44] So I'm seeing your answers. [00:18:45] Sure, we know the risk. Now, clearly we would recognize if any of these long-term kid vaccinations, if they were giving long-term problems, you'd know about it by now, right? [00:18:57] Because you'd look at the database of all the long-term problems. [00:19:05] What's the name of that database? [00:19:08] What's the name of the database where they collect all of the long-term problems? [00:19:13] Not the VAERS, because the VAERS is more of a short-term problem. [00:19:18] But what's the name of the database where they collect the problems, say, 10 years after the vaccination? [00:19:23] What's that called? No, not VAERS. VAERS would be closer to the time you got the vaccination. [00:19:32] But... Let me give you an example. [00:19:34] I guess I'm being unclear. [00:19:35] When I was 49 years old, I got an exotic voice problem called spasmodic dysphonia. [00:19:43] Was my spasmodic dysphonia entered into a database such that people could look at it and say, here's somebody who got the polio vaccination when he was 6 years old or whenever it was, and now he got spasmodic dysphonia at age 49. [00:20:02] Is that in the database? It's got to be in the database. [00:20:07] It's in the database. [00:20:09] Because how in the world could you know that my spasmodic dysphonia is completely unrelated to the vaccinations I got as a kid? [00:20:19] How would you know that without a database? [00:20:22] There's no data. Now, which database do they use to test the combinations of Of childhood vaccinations. [00:20:35] Because we know that they test each vaccination extensively, right? [00:20:39] I mean, we all know that. They do extensive testing on vaccinations. [00:20:43] But which database is it where they look at not only the one vaccination, but the combination? [00:20:50] Where they test, what if we give you three different vaccinations that are all required, but we give them about the same time and you're six years old? [00:20:58] Or whatever age. [00:21:00] Which database is that in? [00:21:03] None, right? [00:21:04] It's not in any database. [00:21:06] So your biggest assumption is that we know the risks of those other vaccinations. [00:21:15] We don't. [00:21:17] And let me tell you what expertise I'm bringing to this conversation. [00:21:22] Medical? Nope. [00:21:25] Scientific expertise? [00:21:28] Nope. Am I bringing my virologist credentials? [00:21:34] Nope. I'm the creator of the Dilbert comic strip. [00:21:39] If you can find a better expert to predict the likelihood that big corporations are gathering data 40 years after they needed to? [00:21:56] Seriously? Seriously. [00:22:00] Do you think that these big companies are really tracking this data long term? [00:22:04] Come on! All of you people who said, I don't want to get the new vaccination because it's not as known as the existing ones. [00:22:18] You think you know the risk of the existing ones? [00:22:23] Do you? No, you don't. [00:22:25] Because nobody tracks it. [00:22:28] You're pretty sure somebody was tracking that, weren't you? [00:22:31] Try to Google it. [00:22:33] See if you can find any data that tells you 20 years after you got the, I don't know, chickenpox vaccination, you show me the data that says 20 years after that, that you can tell what's happening. [00:22:48] Here's another problem. [00:22:52] Here's another problem. [00:22:53] What happens if almost everybody gets the same vaccination? [00:22:59] How do you know what trouble the vaccination caused? [00:23:02] Because everybody's vaccinated. [00:23:04] Almost everybody. [00:23:06] Right? You can't tell. [00:23:08] Let's take an example. [00:23:10] And by the way, this will just be an example for conversation. [00:23:14] I'm not making this allegation. [00:23:16] We know, for example, that the average levels of testosterone in men has been falling for decades. [00:23:24] Right? Has anybody studied... [00:23:28] Whether the lower testosterone that seems to be all through the population could be caused by vaccinations. [00:23:36] I don't think that's the cause. [00:23:38] Let me be very clear. [00:23:40] I don't think that's the cause. [00:23:43] But did anybody study it? [00:23:46] How about obesity? [00:23:48] We've got a crazy obesity problem. [00:23:50] Do we know exactly why? [00:23:52] Because I've heard different opinions. [00:23:54] It's everything from fast food to too much air conditioning to too many video games to whatever. [00:24:00] But has anybody studied our weight loss or weight gain and whether you got vaccinated? [00:24:09] No. Now, do I think that vaccinations cause weight gain later in life? [00:24:15] No, I do not. [00:24:17] I have no reason to think that. [00:24:19] But did anybody study it? [00:24:22] How about my spasmodic dysphonia? [00:24:25] Probably 30,000 people got it since I've gotten it. [00:24:29] How many of them were asked about their childhood vaccinations? [00:24:33] And if they were asked, they would all have the same experience. [00:24:36] So you wouldn't know. [00:24:38] You would just say, oh, everybody got vaccinated and some subset of them got this problem. [00:24:47] Let me tell you what I know with complete certainty. [00:24:53] Nobody is studying the long-term safety of existing vaccinations. [00:25:02] Nobody. So if you made your decision about this vaccination based on the fact that the other ones have been studied for a long time and this one hasn't, you need to check that assumption because it's your main assumption. [00:25:16] And it's baseless. It's baseless. [00:25:20] Now, I heard somebody say, but Scott, the new vaccines, at least two of them, are a different platform, different technology, and we have much more experience with the older kinds of vaccinations, and the new one just introduces this new kind of risk. [00:25:38] Does it? How do you know that? [00:25:41] How do you know it isn't safer? [00:25:44] It seems to me that the experts are quite unified on the question of if there are going to be side effects, they happen quickly. [00:25:53] In other words, if you've watched people for a year, you pretty well have a good idea. [00:26:02] But what happens after a year? [00:26:06] So we've watched all the vaccines for a year or so, but have you watched them longer? [00:26:13] I doubt it. And if you did, did you do it right? [00:26:17] I mean, even if somebody did study it, would you trust the study? [00:26:20] And we know that half the studies are bullshit. [00:26:25] Somebody said that the mRNA vaccines are safer. [00:26:29] Now, if you happen to be an expert in the field, I can imagine that you would say to yourself, well, the nature of the way we're using this... [00:26:37] Should be safer because we have a pretty good idea what this vaccine grabs onto and it's not grabbing onto things that look dangerous. [00:26:47] But if you could tell just by looking at it that it's not dangerous, you wouldn't need to test it. === Reconsidering Safety Logically (04:48) === [00:26:56] You don't know mRNA is safer or less safe. [00:27:01] It can't be known. [00:27:03] You don't know about looking at it, I mean. [00:27:05] You don't just look at it logically and say, well, logically, this should be safe. [00:27:10] You still have to test it, because your logic can't get you safe enough. [00:27:17] Now, let me do a little check on you here. [00:27:22] How many people, until this moment, believe that we did have pretty good information about the long-term effects of other vaccinations? [00:27:32] How many of you just had an oh shit moment and said, oh shit, my main variable is completely just a guess? [00:27:44] I'm seeing no's and yes's. [00:27:46] I see one oh shit. [00:27:48] Not me. Nope. [00:27:50] Me. Don't be a crab. [00:27:52] Get the jab, Charles says. [00:27:55] Somebody says, but this was immaterial to my decision. [00:27:57] Yeah. For some of you, that wasn't part of the decision. [00:28:01] So this wouldn't make any difference to you. [00:28:06] All right. Let me ask you one final question. [00:28:16] Is there anybody here who was anti-vax at the beginning of this, or at least anti-COVID vax at the beginning of this live stream, who, when they realized that they couldn't Know the difference between any of the vaccinations with long-term anything. [00:28:35] How many of you are reconsidering your decision not to get vaccinated based on just this? [00:28:44] I'm going to watch comments go by for a moment because I want to see. [00:28:50] Now, most of you should not be. [00:28:53] 90% should dig in. [00:28:58] Yes, I am. [00:29:01] I'm considering, let's see... [00:29:12] Let's see. Just looking at your rephrase, please. [00:29:17] Rephrase the question. The question is, how many of you are unvaxxed and now reconsidering that because one of your biggest variables just fell apart? [00:29:33] All right. A sad realization, yes. [00:29:36] Okay. So, I am seeing yeses go by. [00:29:42] Now, remember my warning. [00:29:43] My warning was, don't get your medical decisions from cartoonists, right? [00:29:50] And I would encourage any of you to unfollow me or stop following if you didn't like this. [00:29:57] Because this is pretty much the kind of content that I have. [00:30:01] So, yeah, don't follow me if you don't like this. [00:30:07] And I'll say again that if you find out my assumption is wrong and there is some kind of magic database, I don't think so, but if there is, then reconsider. [00:30:20] All right. [00:30:23] Now, when we're talking about vaccine persuasion, you convinced me to be more skeptical. [00:30:38] Alright, that's it for today. [00:30:40] I just wanted to see if I would change any minds. [00:30:43] It looks like some of you did change your minds. [00:30:46] Generally, persuasion does not change everybody right away. [00:30:50] A really, really strong persuasion would get 5% of the audience. [00:30:56] That would be remarkable. [00:30:57] If you could swing 5% of an audience with persuasion, you'd be the best persuader of all time. [00:31:05] Um... Alright. [00:31:14] Well, I'm looking at your comments and I see them. [00:31:19] Now, anecdotal evidence of existing vaccines being safe isn't a thing. [00:31:26] There's no way you could capture problems just by looking at people and saying, oh, this guy's got a headache and he got vaccinated. [00:31:37] And this other guy doesn't have a headache. [00:31:39] Oh, but he got vaccinated too. [00:31:40] So you really couldn't tell. Alright, that's all for now.