Feb. 8, 2019 - Real Coffe - Scott Adams
15:14
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| Hey everybody, come on in here. | |
| We've got a fun and educational, very short periscope. | |
| Let me make sure that my airplane mode is on. | |
| Alright. So, most of you have already seen the news today, and you know that the latest person to be in trouble by the social media and mainstream media is Candace Owens. | |
| And I'm going to teach you something here that I've mentioned before, but I've never seen such a perfect situation to talk about it. | |
| Now the setup is, well, here's the background. | |
| There's a blogger named Scott Alexander who introduced me to the following idea, which is so predictive. | |
| And so useful that you're gonna wanna learn it. | |
| And it goes like this. | |
| Let me stop somebody here and block a couple of trolls. | |
| All right, now we're back. | |
| And the idea is this from Scott Alexander. | |
| If you hear a story that is like insanely hard to believe, but yet it's being reported in the news and it's all over the news and it's all over social media but there's something about it that's just incredible hard to believe you can predict the rest of the story without even knowing what the story is the rest of the story is if you wait you find out it's not true right so when you see stories about somebody said something outrageous almost always The explanation is going to be, | |
| didn't happen. | |
| And that's what happened with Candace Owens, and it's what happened with the Charlottesville hoax, and it's what happened with the governor of Virginia when he talked about abortion. | |
| And I'll give you those three examples, and I'll show you the pattern. | |
| So today in the news, there's a story that Candace Owens, in some live event, when she was explaining nationalism, Said something that sounded a little bit positive about Hitler. | |
| Now, without knowing exactly what she said, if you hear the story, and it's all over social media, that says that Candace Owens is an apologist for Hitler, and for those few people who don't know, Candace Owens is an African American conservative woman. | |
| Now, very successful, very smart, right? | |
| So she's very successful, very smart. | |
| Do you think there's any chance that she intentionally went in front of the public, and even if there was a slip of the tongue, do you think there's any chance that she said something positive about Adolf Hitler? | |
| And the answer is no. | |
| There's not the slightest chance that that actually happened. | |
| So if you're asking yourself, well, wait a minute, let me go look at the actual language she used, and then you see it. | |
| You're like, my god, it's right there. | |
| It's right there in the actual language she used. | |
| Except it isn't. | |
| It isn't. It just isn't there. | |
| But half of the country will see it, and half of the country won't see it. | |
| They'll be looking at the same thing. | |
| Some will see it, some will not. | |
| If you want to know what the tiebreaker is, when some people see something and some people do not, the tiebreaker is the not. | |
| It's almost always that it just didn't happen, because that would be what you would expect. | |
| Here's the other example. | |
| Half of the country, at least, believes that President Trump, after the Charlottesville tragedy, they believe that he went on live TV and And said something good in support of the white supremacists. | |
| Now, do you need to know exactly what words he used in order to know that that didn't happen? | |
| No, you do not. You don't need to check the actual words, because that is so ridiculous that even if he were a white nationalist, which he's not, but even if he were, he wouldn't go in front of the public and say that, and then if he did, he certainly wouldn't clarify the next day, no, God, no, I didn't say that. | |
| I disavowed those guys. | |
| So, on its surface, you don't need to look at his exact words, because on its surface, you should already know, no, the president, no president, not this president, not any president of the United States, went on TV and said, yeah, I think I'll say something good about those white supremacists. | |
| Didn't happen. Just like Candace Owens did not say something positive about Hiller. | |
| That just didn't happen. | |
| Now the actual context in Candace's case is she was talking about a hypothetical in which the only thing wrong with Hitler is that he was a nationalist. | |
| It was a terrible way to go about explaining it. | |
| Nobody's going to defend the word she chose. | |
| But it was just a bad explanation. | |
| Obviously it wasn't even about Hitler. | |
| And then the third one is the one you won't like, most of you anyway. | |
| The Virginia doctor Who it was reported would be in favor of killing a live baby after its birth if the mother was upset about it. | |
| Now, do you need to know the governor's exact words to know that that never happened? | |
| There was no governor who went on TV or went in any public event and said, yeah, I'm okay with delivering a live baby, and then if the mother's got any kind of mental health issues, maybe we'll just kill the baby. | |
| That didn't happen. Now, a lot of you are saying, wait a minute, wait a minute, he did say that. | |
| Watch the comments. | |
| Yes, he did say that. | |
| People are saying, his exact words are that. | |
| People are saying to me, did you see the video? | |
| Yes, I saw the video several times. | |
| I saw his exact words. | |
| And if you understand the context, he was obviously talking about situations in which the baby wasn't going to live very long. | |
| So it was a hospice context. | |
| That most of you got fooled by. | |
| So here's the lesson. | |
| And I waited until there were two examples on the conservative side and only one example on the other side. | |
| So you can see the same effect. | |
| The thing that is fooling the left about Charlottesville is that they wanted to believe it. | |
| The thing that's fooling them about Candace Owens is they want to believe that she said that. | |
| In both cases it didn't happen. | |
| And the reason that so many of you were fooled by the report about the governor and abortion, see people are still telling me to read the law again. | |
| Anybody who's telling me read his exact words or read the law again, you're not on the same point. | |
| I'm not defending the law which was poorly crafted. | |
| So that it did look like there was some room for bad behavior there. | |
| And I'm not defending the way he described it, which was poorly done. | |
| So you're being fooled by the fact that the law itself was poorly written, and he did a bad job of explaining it. | |
| But you will never find, and I'll go on record for this, you will never find a real human being, not the governor, not the people who wrote the law, Not anybody. | |
| You will not find a real human being who says, yes, what we intended was that even if a healthy baby was born and the mother had some mental health issues, it would be her choice and the doctor would go along with it to just kill the baby that would otherwise live. | |
| Nobody in the world ever held that opinion. | |
| If you believe that, then you're believing something ridiculous. | |
| And you have to look at the other side to see how they were fooled the same way. | |
| You have to see how the other side was fooled the same way you were fooled in order to get the full context. | |
| Didn't know how fooled you were. | |
| Alright. You can't know that. | |
| Here's my point. | |
| This is one of those things that people so don't want to believe. | |
| That they can't hear it when you're watching this happen. | |
| I, of course, don't know what anyone was thinking. | |
| But if you come to me and say that a public figure just said that aliens landed in his bathroom and he had a fight with them and he killed three of them, do you need to hear his exact words to know that that didn't happen? | |
| You don't, do you? Suppose your idiot brother comes to you. | |
| I shouldn't use that example because my brother's probably watching this periscope. | |
| Suppose your idiot uncle comes to you and your idiot uncle says, there's a unicorn in the closet. | |
| And you say, well, you put a stuffed unicorn in the closet? | |
| No, no. It's a real live unicorn and it's in the closet. | |
| Do you need to check the closet? | |
| To know that there's no unicorn in there. | |
| You don't. Because it's so ridiculous on its surface that you should know it's not true. | |
| If you look at your uncle's exact words, your uncle said, exactly, there is a unicorn in the closet. | |
| But he may have misspoken. | |
| You may have heard him wrong. Maybe he was confused about something. | |
| So here's the point. Anytime you hear a story that somebody said something that is so outrageous, you can't believe that anybody said it, you should believe it didn't happen. | |
| Didn't happen with the Charlottesville situation. | |
| Didn't happen with Candace Owens. | |
| And it didn't happen with the governor. | |
| Now what the governor did do is support a law that wasn't popular enough to even get passed. | |
| So you can certainly disagree with the law. | |
| You can disagree with what the governor actually thought. | |
| But if you believe that they thought they would deliver healthy babies and then kill them because the mother had a mental issue with it, that was never true. | |
| And you've now learned a lesson. | |
| don't believe things that are ridiculous on their surface. | |
| So some people are trying to make their case by referring to some other person, you know, Gosnell. | |
| Now, I'm not telling you that there aren't bad people who have done bad things in the world. | |
| What I'm telling you is a sitting governor did not go in public and say, let's kill healthy babies as long as the mother's upset about it. | |
| Never happened. If you say there are such things as abortion doctors who have done abortions that you believe are horrible... | |
| Hold on. | |
| You're trying to win by saying that because there is a monster called this Gosnell guy, according to you, that therefore the governor could also be one? | |
| No. That's not good thinking. | |
| Right? There are people who are serial murderers. | |
| If tomorrow Ivanka Trump goes on television and says something that you believe sounded like she was confessing to be a serial killer, what should be your first reaction? | |
| Okay, here's a good example. | |
| Ivanka Trump goes in public and says something that you're listening to the words and it sounds like she just admitted being a serial killer. | |
| Your first impression, your first thought should be, no, that is so impossible that I must have heard it wrong. | |
| It does not make your case better that there are such things as serial killers. | |
| The fact that serial killers exist does not make it likely that Ivanka Trump is a serial killer. | |
| Likewise, the fact that horrible abortion doctors exist Tells you nothing about the fact that a sitting governor would say something so completely career-ending in public, as if it's nothing. | |
| I know a lot of you are having a lot of trouble with this because you bought into it and you don't want to admit how taken you were by the fake news. | |
| Alright, so that's my lesson for the day. | |
| So, people are saying, wow, how naive of you. | |
| Alright. So, Annie, I'm going to block you because you're not smart enough to be part of this periscope. | |
| If what you're saying is that the governor really said, I think let's kill a live baby that would be fine after it's born, as long as the mother is upset and claims some mental health issues, if you believe that really happened, You're not smart enough to be on the periscope. | |
| So, because you went personal, you are now blocked. | |
| Alright, if you hadn't been personal about it, I wouldn't have blocked it. | |
| If it was just an opinion, it would have been fine. | |
| But... Alright, yeah, we'll talk about Matthew Whitaker another time. |
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