Sept. 18, 2018 - Real Coffe - Scott Adams
21:32
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| How's my shirt? Oh my god, my shirt's on inside out. | |
| Hey everybody, I'm wearing my shirt inside out. | |
| And if that doesn't tell you how tired I am, nothing will. | |
| There's nothing like realizing that your shirt is inside out after you've started the Periscope. | |
| But, sorry I'm late. | |
| Four. People had lots of speculation about what a Trump presidency would look like. | |
| Now, I also had speculations, as most of you did. | |
| So let's... | |
| Hey, Colleen. Colleen said, say my name, so I did. | |
| Don't try that. Don't try that trick again. | |
| It only works once. So let's check our predictions. | |
| And we'll see if the critics were more accurate... | |
| Or I was, and you're probably on the same page as me. | |
| So let's compare ourselves to the critics. | |
| So these are the predictions before President Trump took office. | |
| He would deport 14 million undocumented aliens. | |
| I said he wouldn't. | |
| His critics said he would, because he said he would during the campaign. | |
| But of course he did not, and there's really no chance that that's going to happen. | |
| And his critics said he would move us toward nuclear war. | |
| It appears the opposite has happened. | |
| We appear further from nuclear war than at any time. | |
| North Korea doesn't seem close to nuclear war. | |
| Russia seems to want to deal with us. | |
| And Iran has more pressure on it than it did before in developing nuclear weapons. | |
| So it seems to me That we are further from nuclear war than we've ever been. | |
| So my prediction is right, critics are wrong. | |
| There were people who, it's hard to believe, but people actually thought that President Trump would round up all the brown people and put them in concentration camps. | |
| I have seen no indication that the president is rounding up brown people to put them in concentration camps. | |
| I'm going to say I was right on that one. | |
| Critics were wrong. | |
| Critics said that President Trump would be committing much repression against LGBTQ community. | |
| Haven't seen it. | |
| In fact, President Trump is, I believe, The most LGBTQ-friendly president we've had. | |
| And I say that because he came in favoring gay marriage. | |
| He's the first president, correct me if I'm wrong, and I might be wrong, but fact check me. | |
| Is President Trump the first president who came into office Favoring LGBTQ marriage rights. | |
| I believe he is. And nothing that's happened so far. | |
| Now somebody says he's appointed anti-LGBTQ judges. | |
| I haven't seen any rulings... | |
| That would suggest that's a problem. | |
| And keep in mind that the judges he selects are constitutionalists, so they're only going to favor what's in the Constitution. | |
| All right, so we haven't seen any actual repression, but as somebody said, they're concerned about the judges that he's nominated, but that would be true of any conservative. | |
| People said that there would be Russia collusion. | |
| I think we're close to the point where we can say that we can confirm that didn't happen, right? | |
| He's releasing the FISA emails and sort of looking like things are going to be wrapping up pretty soon. | |
| So his critics probably, probably wrong about the Russia collusion. | |
| Doesn't seem to be any evidence. | |
| Even Bob Woodward couldn't find any. | |
| Somebody said, are you kidding people? | |
| No, I'm sorry, that's what Trump derangement sounds like. | |
| Then there were people who said he was only in it for the money. | |
| And that it was really just the presidency was just a trick to get richer. | |
| But I think probably that didn't happen. | |
| I haven't seen any indication that Trump's net worth is going up or that he got some deal he wasn't supposed to get or anything like that. | |
| Yeah, the indications are he may have lost money. | |
| There was at least one economic or Nobel economic person, Krugman, who said there would be an economic disaster when President Trump came into office. | |
| Opposite. The economy is doing better than ever. | |
| And then, of course, ISIS got taken care of, and North Korea is probably in a better place than it's ever been. | |
| Speaking of North Korea, so the sticking point with North Korea has been That North Korea is asking for some kind of a big concession in order to give up his nuclear weapons. | |
| Now, there's not much we have to concede because we're the ones who want something. | |
| We're not the ones who have something to give up, in a sense. | |
| That's oversimplifying. | |
| But there's talk now between North and South Korea, or at least there's speculation that they're talking about working toward declaring an end to the Korean War. | |
| And it seems to me that if North and South Korea and the US and the UN, I guess you need a lot of people involved, probably the UN, to declare the end to the war, that that might be the gesture that allows Kim to get rid of his nukes. | |
| Because it's a different story if you just get rid of your nukes because there was pressure. | |
| That makes Kim look weak. | |
| But if you get rid of your nukes because you won, That doesn't look the same. | |
| And Kim could claim victory in bringing an end to the Korean War. | |
| And it would actually be fairly legitimate, in my opinion. | |
| I think a reasonable person could say that if the end of this process was a formal declaration of the end of the war, I think a reasonable observer could say that Kim made that happen through his nuclear program. | |
| And then he could disband it, because he could say, we made our point, we got the thing we wanted. | |
| Once we're unified, we don't really need, you know, if we're working toward reunification, we don't really need nuclear weapons, because that would be like using them on yourself. | |
| You wouldn't nuke your own country if they're working toward reunification, even if it's a hundred year plan for reunification. | |
| So it seems to me y'all would worship Hitler. | |
| Let's get rid of the Nazi. | |
| North Korea always had the option to declare peace. | |
| Correct. North Korea always had the option to just say, oh, we're peaceful, but it would look like they had just surrendered. | |
| Because if you declare peace against a superior force, Well, you don't have much negotiating room and it just sort of looks like a surrender. | |
| But if you come to peace with a peer, a nuclear peer, in some sense a peer, not really, but in some sense they would both be nuclear powers, that looks different. | |
| You could sell that differently. | |
| And I think you could. | |
| So, you saw all of the predictions, the worst case predictions that the anti-Trumpers made. | |
| And it's been a few years now. | |
| Some of that stuff would have happened. | |
| Did I block the wrong person? | |
| Some of that stuff would have happened. | |
| I'll unblock her later. | |
| My Periscope is not showing them my Twitter feed. | |
| That might actually be my fault. | |
| I'm on a new device and there's a setting that I need. | |
| I'll unblock Nancy. | |
| I just can't do it right now. | |
| Or can I? Let's see if I can. | |
| What would happen if I do this? | |
| Nope, that doesn't work. | |
| Alright, I'm in some mode I can't get in of. | |
| We'll get Nancy back. | |
| Nancy, maybe you should not have said y'all would worship Nazis. | |
| That will get you blocked on here. | |
| Nancy's in a cage. | |
| So, let's drink to Nancy, shall we? | |
| Poor Nancy. Has been temporarily banned accidentally. | |
| Will you raise a mug? | |
| And we will all drink to Nancy, who I will unblock as soon as I get off the periscope. | |
| To Nancy. Simultaneous sip. | |
| Oh, Nancy. Nancy's in a timeout, but apparently it wasn't Nancy's fault. | |
| It was my fault. Um... | |
| Am I going to the Trump rally? | |
| I'm not, no. | |
| So let's talk about Kavanaugh. | |
| So back in 2015, I remind you on a regular basis, I said provocatively, the facts don't matter and that they've never mattered, but we're going to find that out in a way that we've never understood before. | |
| I think my prediction has come true, which is that the facts are not influencing reality the way everybody thought they should, everybody but me. | |
| I told you from the beginning, the facts don't matter. | |
| Now, of course, the facts do matter to the outcomes, right? | |
| So that's true. | |
| But in terms of how we think about our world, the decisions we make, who we back politically, how we interpret things, Facts don't matter. | |
| Take Kavanaugh. Here's a situation where we will never know what happened. | |
| Is that correct? We will never know if something happened like what the accuser says or something did not. | |
| It is unknowable. Cannot be confirmed. | |
| So do the facts matter? | |
| Well, they can't matter because we can't know them, and yet we imagine we do. | |
| I would say if you did a survey of 100 people, you'd find at least half of them say they're pretty sure what happened. | |
| But they can't be. | |
| Some of those people would say, I'm sure it happened. | |
| She wouldn't say it otherwise. And other people would say, I'm sure it didn't happen. | |
| Look how coincidentally this happens at this timing. | |
| She can't possibly remember that. | |
| So the facts don't matter. | |
| So what do you do in a situation where you're in a reality where you have to make a decision about the Supreme Court nomination? | |
| You have to make some decision, but a very important fact can't be known. | |
| What do you do? Here's what you do. | |
| You honor the system because you can't know the facts. | |
| Let me say more about that. | |
| If you can't know the facts, or people won't agree on the facts, you have to replace the facts, which can't be known, with a system which is credible. | |
| Because if we can't agree on the facts, maybe we can agree that the way we arrived at the decision was a good system. | |
| What would be a good system in the case of Kavanaugh and the accusations against him? | |
| There's only one system that makes sense. | |
| The system is, if you can't prove it, you have to ignore it. | |
| That's the system. Because that's the system you would all want to apply to you, right? | |
| Would you not want that system to apply to you? | |
| If you were in his position and there was an unproven accusation which can never be proven, what system would you say, well, that would be fair? | |
| Doesn't matter who it is, that system would be fair. | |
| And so, if you're asking yourself, you know, let's say you're in Congress and you're saying to yourself, what should we do with this Kavanaugh thing? | |
| Because it might be true and it might not be true. | |
| Here's what you should do. | |
| You should ignore whether or not it's true. | |
| It's just not part of your decision. | |
| That's the hard part. | |
| But if you're being rational and you're trying to maintain a civilization that works, In these situations, you have to default to the system. | |
| You have to take a system stand that is the system you would want to apply to other people in other situations that are somewhat similar. | |
| And the system is no evidence, no penalty. | |
| Well, evidence is the wrong word. | |
| Anything that can't be proven, you have to treat it like it didn't happen. | |
| And so the Kavanaugh vote, if some of the senators who are allegedly potential no votes, if they vote against him because of the accusation, I believe they've failed you, even if they're right, because that part we can't know. | |
| But they have failed you if they choose guessing about the facts or making a decision based on the facts. | |
| If they make a decision based on their opinion of the facts or the likelihood that the facts could be true or false, they have failed you. | |
| Because they should make the decision based on the process, the system. | |
| And the system unambiguously requires us to not penalize him for something that can't be known. | |
| If it can't be known, you can't be penalized for it. | |
| Period. That's the system you want to live under. | |
| It's the only credible system. | |
| And even if it doesn't give you the right answer every time, you still have to use it. | |
| Period. That's my take. | |
| Alright. Somebody's saying, I'm with Nancy. | |
| Uh... Preponderance of evidence requires 51%. | |
| Yeah, we're not in a preponderance of evidence situation because there's one piece of evidence and nobody will agree whether it's persuasive or not. | |
| Pattern of behavior, yeah, you know, I would say that all of that stuff around the decision, you know, people are trying to argue, well, what about the women who said he didn't do anything? | |
| What about his friend who was there who said this or that? | |
| What about her memory wasn't complete, she didn't mention Kavanaugh until later? | |
| What about, why did she wait until this point? | |
| There's all these whatabouts, and I would say you should treat all of it the same. | |
| It shouldn't matter to the decision because it doesn't lead you to any kind of a certainty or even preponderance of likely certainty or anything like that. | |
| So you've got to use the system, and the system says unproven has to be ignored. | |
| All right. | |
| Explain Cernovich's credible accusation thing. | |
| So the phrase that the anti-Trumpers, anti-Kavanaugh people are using is credible accusations. | |
| And that's a clever way to add credibility to an accusation simply by... | |
| I saw a funny comment. | |
| Somebody said, I am Nancy too, sort of like I am Spartacus. | |
| I am Nancy. | |
| Alright, you get the funniest comment of the day award. | |
| I have not seen the new Project Veritas tape. | |
| Let me make a prediction about the Project Veritas tape that I haven't seen. | |
| It's going to be ambiguous. | |
| It's a dud, somebody said. | |
| Alright, without seeing it, Without seeing anything, not hearing anything about it, I'm going to say it's going to be ambiguous. | |
| All right. So Mike Cernovich said we're talking about credible accusations. | |
| Yeah. Calling something a credible accusation adds the word credible to accusation. | |
| So it's a very clever way to persuade without facts. | |
| So strategy-wise, it's really good. | |
| But it's also evil. | |
| It's totally evil. | |
| but it's good persuasion if you don't mind evil with your persuasion alright your comments are extra funny I don't know why there's Nancy's situation. | |
| Well, you know, although we saw here in the Periscope that Nancy did not probably cause any crimes on Periscope, but Nancy was... | |
| Credibly accused. | |
| Nancy, you were credibly accused. | |
| See what that does? | |
| It just turns Nancy into guilty by adding that credibly part in front of accused. | |
| I am Nancy. | |
| All right, I don't know that there's much more news, because until we hear about this... | |
| Oh, let's talk about the FISA documents declassified... | |
| So apparently, you know, the president has declassified the FISA documents, documentations, or the documents around it, I guess. | |
| And we don't know if that will be awesome or a big nothing, but it's so disappointing it's going to take so long to see it. | |
| Because it's got to be approved by 12 different people who have to look at everything and they've all got to sign off and, you know, it's different people looking at different parts of it. | |
| It's just going to be this big mess of trickle. | |
| So it's not really going to have the, you know, the great news moment that we expect. | |
| Yeah, I think it'll be a big nothing, probably. | |
| But I like the fact that the president did it because people wanted it, and we wanted transparency, and so he gave it to us. | |
| For Nancy, the seriousness of the accusation was more important than the evidence, somebody said. | |
| There are many funny Nancy comments on here today. | |
| If you're listening to this on podcast, I'm sorry because half of the fun is reading the comments and you won't hear them on the podcast. | |
| Alright, I don't have anything else to say. | |
| I'm going to go do something else. And in the meantime, I'll go unblock Nancy. | |
| And everybody say, we love you, Nancy. |
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