Rubin Report - Dave Rubin - Unexpected Iran Development, Major Marijuana Shift, Market Surprise | 4/24/26 FIRST LOOK
Aired: 2026-04-24
Duration: 05:43


=== Federal Medical Marijuana Move (03:09) ===

[00:00:04]  Good morning, everybody.
[00:00:05]  It's Friday, April 24th, 2026, and this is First Look.
[00:00:10]  We've got a packed show for you today.
[00:00:12]  Here's what's coming up.
[00:00:14]  Trump says Iran is in chaos and the U.S. now has total control of the Strait of Hormuz.
[00:00:21]  A major federal move on medical marijuana.
[00:00:24]  What changed and why it matters?
[00:00:26]  And later, the stock market is surging, outperforming historical averages in Trump's second term.
[00:00:33]  Let's get into it.
[00:00:34]  We start overseas where the pressure campaign against Iran appears to be hitting a breaking point.
[00:00:40]  President Trump says Iran is not just struggling economically, it's struggling internally at the highest levels.
[00:00:48]  In a post this week, Trump said Iran is having a very hard time figuring out who their leader is, describing a country now divided between hardliners and so-called moderates who were pulling in different directions.
[00:01:02]  And while that internal chaos plays out, the U.S. is holding the upper hand strategically.
[00:01:08]  Trump made it clear.
[00:01:10]  The United States has total control of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical shipping lanes in the world.
[00:01:17]  His message was blunt no ship is moving through that strait without U.S. approval, and it will stay that way until Iran comes to the table and makes a deal.
[00:01:28]  That's not a small lever.
[00:01:30]  That's the lever when it comes to global energy flow.
[00:01:34]  At the same time, Iran's leadership situation is anything but stable.
[00:01:38]  The newly installed Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khomeini, hasn't been seen publicly since taking power, reportedly after being seriously injured in the strike that killed his father.
[00:01:50]  So, what you're looking at now is power concentrated inside the Revolutionary Guard, political figures trying to negotiate with the U.S., and no clear unified leadership direction.
[00:02:03]  Even the White House acknowledges these divisions are complicating negotiations, and that's part of why the U.S. is maintaining pressure.
[00:02:11]  Bottom line here Iran is fractured.
[00:02:14]  The US is in control.
[00:02:16]  And the longer this standoff continues, the more leverage shifts toward Washington.
[00:02:21]  Back here at home, the Trump administration just made a major policy move that's been debated for decades.
[00:02:28]  Medical marijuana is now being reclassified at the federal level, moved from Schedule 1 to Schedule 3.
[00:02:36]  Now, that might sound technical, but it's actually a big shift.
[00:02:40]  Schedule 1 is where drugs like heroin sit, substances with no accepted medical use and a high potential for abuse.
[00:02:48]  Schedule 3?
[00:02:50]  That's a completely different category, recognizing legitimate medical use and allowing for more regulated access.
[00:02:57]  So, what changes?
[00:02:59]  Researchers will have an easier time studying cannabis.
[00:03:02]  Doctors will have clearer guidance.
[00:03:05]  And licensed medical marijuana businesses will now be able to deduct expenses on their federal taxes for the first time.

=== Markets Outperforming Expectations (02:30) ===

[00:03:13]  That last part is huge.
[00:03:15]  It essentially legitimizes an industry that already exists in most of the country.
[00:03:20]  Forty states already have medical marijuana programs.
[00:03:24]  Two dozen allow recreational use.
[00:03:27]  The federal government has been behind the curve for years, and this is a step toward catching up.
[00:03:33]  The administration says this is about expanding medical access while still maintaining strong enforcement against dangerous drugs like fentanyl.
[00:03:42]  And they're not stopping here.
[00:03:43]  A broader review is already scheduled for June, which could lead to even more changes down the line.
[00:03:50]  So this isn't the end of the conversation.
[00:03:52]  It's the beginning of a new phase.
[00:03:54]  And finally, let's talk about the economy.
[00:03:56]  Because while the headlines often focus on uncertainty, the markets are telling a very different story.
[00:04:03]  The S&P 500 is up 19% since the start of Trump's second term.
[00:04:09]  That's not just solid.
[00:04:10]  That's significantly above historical averages.
[00:04:13]  To put it in perspective, the average gain under presidents going back to 1961 is about 6%.
[00:04:21]  Even in more recent decades, it's around 15%.
[00:04:25]  So this current run is outperforming by a wide margin.
[00:04:29]  Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have hit record highs recently.
[00:04:34]  The Dow even crossed 50,000 for the first time ever earlier this year.
[00:04:39]  And this is all happening despite ongoing conflict in the Middle East, tariffs that critics warned would damage the economy, and constant predictions of downturn.
[00:04:50]  Instead, investor confidence is climbing.
[00:04:53]  A recent poll found 52% of Americans say now is a good time to invest, including a notable share of Democrats.
[00:05:02]  Prediction markets are also optimistic, giving about a 64% chance.
[00:05:07]  The market finishes the year in positive territory.
[00:05:10]  So, while the narrative out there might be mixed, the actual numbers are pretty clear.
[00:05:15]  Markets are strong, confidence is up, and performance is exceeding expectations.
[00:05:22]  That's your first look this Friday.
[00:05:24]  Iran under pressure and showing signs of internal fracture, a major shift in federal marijuana policy, and an economy that continues to outperform what the critics predicted.
[00:05:37]  We'll keep tracking all of it.
[00:05:39]  I'm Dave Rubin.
[00:05:40]  Thanks for starting your day with First Look.
[00:05:42]  We'll see you next time.