Ron Paul Liberty Report - Another Fed Rate Hike In A World Where Rates Must Be Set By The Market Aired: 2022-12-16 Duration: 25:00 === Inflation's Aggressive Return (14:49) === [00:00:22] With us today is Chris Rossini, our co-host. [00:00:24] Chris, welcome to the program. [00:00:26] Great to be with you, Dr. Paul. [00:00:28] Chris, once again, we are honored by the presence of the economist from Birch Gold. [00:00:35] He's been with us several times. [00:00:36] Now, Philip Patrick is here, and he has a lot of explaining to do. [00:00:43] I don't understand what's going on in these markets, and I've been looking at them for 30 years. [00:00:47] So Philip is going to straighten us out and explain all the problems going on. [00:00:52] Philip, welcome to our program again. [00:00:55] Thank you so much for having me, guys. [00:00:57] It's an honor, as always. [00:00:58] Very good. [00:00:59] Philip, I want to start off with talking a little bit about the Fed, because they are big in the news, not only this week, but eternally. [00:01:08] The Fed has been an issue, a big issue since 1913, certainly since the middle 30s, certainly since 1971, and all the tragedies that have occurred with our dollar. [00:01:22] But this week was very, very active, and they were doing things, and I thought it was fascinating. [00:01:29] They said that they would lower the rate of decrease of increase in the interest rate because their solution to a weak economy is raise interest rates. [00:01:39] And the whole thing is fallacious. [00:01:41] And I want to address the subject, and you're good at this, is where did they get this authority? [00:01:47] Is it a good idea that we think, and so many trillions of dollars depends on a few words by a Federal Reserve, like, oh, next week we are going to do this, and boom, boom, boom, the money exchanges. [00:02:01] I just think it's a rather fragile system. [00:02:05] But tell us what you thought about this week. [00:02:09] Did you get any reassurance that we're on a road to recovery and everybody's going to be happy next year? [00:02:15] Sadly not, Dr. Paul. [00:02:17] It was a little bizarre. [00:02:18] I mean, this Fed telegraphs more so than other Federal Reserves have. [00:02:24] And I think most people were expecting a 50 basis point rate hike. [00:02:28] But it was a little surprising or a little strange, I should say. [00:02:31] The whole point of these rate hikes ultimately is to lower inflation. [00:02:34] And rates hikes now are slowing, even though inflation isn't really, right? [00:02:40] We've seen a small reduction in overall inflation, right? [00:02:43] It came down from 7.7 to 7.1. [00:02:46] But when you delve into the numbers, it gets a little bit more concerning. [00:02:50] So core inflation, which is everything outside of food and energy, was up about 6% year over year. [00:02:57] The only metric within core inflation that reduced was used cars. [00:03:01] And of course, that's because prices had gotten so high, they had to come down. [00:03:06] Outside of core inflation, it was energy that saw the real reduction, about 1.6%. [00:03:12] Food prices, however, up. [00:03:14] So what it's showing us, I think, is that the Fed really don't have a handle on inflation, right? [00:03:20] What's come down, energy and used cars. [00:03:22] What's gone up? [00:03:23] The essentials, food, shelter. [00:03:25] So taken all together, I think the Fed have a lot of work to do. [00:03:29] And of course, the strong employment numbers we're seeing, I think are still working against them. [00:03:35] Chris, do you have a question for Philip? [00:03:37] Yes, Philip, great to see you again. [00:03:40] I wanted to talk about inflation targets because it's so ridiculous. [00:03:44] Even the idea that targets exist, I mean, nobody gave the Fed any taxing authority over us, whereas they want to steal 2% of our purchasing power, as a matter of fact. [00:03:58] And that was for years. [00:04:00] Oh, we want to get 2%, 2%. [00:04:02] Then it shot up to, it's probably 15% now. [00:04:06] Correct. [00:04:07] And now they're just talking about, oh, we just need new targets, new higher targets. [00:04:11] I mean, so I thought of an analogy. [00:04:14] What if the government, you know, and we believe that the income tax itself is theft. [00:04:18] You know, so if we pay 35% income tax and one day they just take 75%, would we just accept, oh, sorry, we overshot this year. [00:04:29] We'll try to bring it down to 50. [00:04:31] I mean, can you just talk about this whole charade called inflation targets? [00:04:36] I mean, it's absurd, right? [00:04:38] Particularly where you can just move the goalpost. [00:04:40] It's like me not achieving our company's targets and saying, well, let's just lower the target. [00:04:45] That way we achieve it. [00:04:46] It's nonsensical. [00:04:48] Look, the Fed is, as you know well, have a dual mandate to maintain maximum employment and that 2% target. [00:04:54] For me, it's not going to be achievable for the foreseeable future. [00:04:59] I think the Fed are really pinned into a corner here. [00:05:02] They can raise rates, and I think next year when the reality that they really haven't got a grip on inflation kicks in, they're going to have to get more aggressive with the raising of interest rates. [00:05:12] But the problem, as we've discussed before, I don't know how aggressive they can. [00:05:16] And it has a significant effect on the federal government. [00:05:19] Let's not forget with $31 trillion in debt, every time the interest rate goes up 1%, that adds $310 billion in debt service. [00:05:31] That alone accounts for a massive category of government spending. [00:05:35] A 1% raise equates to our Medicaid outlays. [00:05:39] 2% are defense spending, which is colossal compared to other nations. [00:05:43] And 3% Social Security. [00:05:46] I don't think they're going to be able to raise rates enough to really slow the inflation. [00:05:50] And I think the 2% target is a pipe dream for a long, long time. [00:05:56] Very good, Philip. [00:05:59] You know, the timing of all this is a big problem because the markets move quickly. [00:06:07] So the Fed only has to say a couple words and the markets can shift and trillions of dollars can be bought or sold or whatever. [00:06:14] So it doesn't make any sense. [00:06:16] And I think one of the basic problems is this idea that you can plan an economy. [00:06:21] You can raise interest rates a certain point and then you know what's going to happen and they make these calculations. [00:06:27] And so now when somebody gets a PhD in economics, you have to learn these mathematical equations that's going to perceive the human action of billions of people who are dealing in the market. [00:06:40] And so what the Fed does, of course, is the best thing, and they can get away with it as long. [00:06:45] Well, keep interest rates low. [00:06:47] Prices aren't going to go up immediately. [00:06:50] And the people love it. [00:06:52] But that locked into place. [00:06:54] So someday, that artificial manipulation of interest rates is going to give us this downturn, which always comes. [00:07:02] But then they're in a dilemma. [00:07:03] The downturn occurs and they achieve at least their 2% price inflation that they want. [00:07:09] And it turns out to be 10% price inflation. [00:07:13] And then what do they have to offer? [00:07:15] Can they recalculate? [00:07:16] No, the market is more powerful than they are. [00:07:20] So what they do is they say, the only thing we can do is stop this boom that we created. [00:07:27] Give the people a recession or depression. [00:07:30] That'll solve our problem. [00:07:31] How crazy could that get? [00:07:34] I mean, it is absolutely absurd. [00:07:36] And we've seen this. [00:07:37] Listen, Federal Reserve policy, quantitative easing, government spending has driven massive bubbles in the economy, right? [00:07:46] And the old saying is what goes up must come down, particularly when that growth was not driven by fundamentals. [00:07:53] It wasn't driven by earnings. [00:07:55] It was driven by policy. [00:07:56] And I think the point you made earlier was absolutely spot on. [00:08:00] Look at what we're seeing in the markets now. [00:08:02] Markets are rallying on the back of Federal Reserve minutes, right? [00:08:06] They're combing through looking for any sort of dovish words, right? [00:08:12] And then markets respond on the back of it. [00:08:14] Since when did Federal Reserve minutes become more important than earnings reports? [00:08:18] Like, that's how crazy things have gotten. [00:08:21] And for me, this is classic late-stage bubble behavior. [00:08:25] Heading into next year, I think we start to see this bubble unwinding, and it could get tough. [00:08:32] Very good. [00:08:32] Speaking of the bubble. [00:08:33] Chris. [00:08:34] Sorry, Dr. Paul. [00:08:35] Yes, speaking of the bubble, in the past, when the Fed wants to pop the bubble that it created, if you go back to dot-com, the housing bubble, they would raise rates until something finally breaks. [00:08:47] Well, it seems like they're doing that again, waiting for something to break, but nothing major, at least in America. [00:08:53] You know, we've had some crypto problems, but no major dominoes have come down. [00:09:01] And, you know, everybody speculates, how can this market now keep stay up? [00:09:06] You know, the Fed just keeps raising into it. [00:09:08] And, you know, one of the speculations, and I tend to think along these lines, is that because Europe is in such bad shape, that money has to go where it feels safest. [00:09:20] And it's probably flowing into the United States and into the dollar and into our markets. [00:09:25] So when something major breaks, do you think it will be in Europe? [00:09:31] I mean, Europe's falling apart, quite frankly. [00:09:34] And you're correct. [00:09:35] I think, you know, a lot of the dollar strength we've seen over the last few months has really been by proxy. [00:09:40] It's been on the back of weakening of other currencies. [00:09:44] But you're right. [00:09:44] The Fed has a really tough task, right? [00:09:47] What they're trying to do right now is to kill demand, and it's not really working. [00:09:51] The Fed has raised the effective interest rate 400 basis points over the last year, and it hasn't really slowed consumer spending that much, which is about two-thirds of U.S. GDP. [00:10:02] It's the bulk of the story for the U.S. economy. [00:10:05] So it's left us in the position today of too much money tasing too few goods and services. [00:10:10] It's a tough position. [00:10:11] Could Europe be the catalyst for broader correction, broader sort of recessions across the globe? [00:10:17] Absolutely. [00:10:18] I think they have big, big problems, as do we. [00:10:22] Theirs may be slightly bigger than ours at the moment. [00:10:24] But, you know, for me, it's really interesting because we're in a position now where, you know, we have to combat inflation by killing demand, by forcing a recession. [00:10:34] But there's another way to combat inflation, which is, of course, increasing supply. [00:10:38] And that, for me, is another failure of leadership. [00:10:41] This was an opportunity that the Biden administration has. [00:10:44] Listen, the U.S. used to manufacture things, right? [00:10:46] We used to make things. [00:10:47] We've lost 91,000 factories, 5 million manufacturing jobs. [00:10:52] Our destiny is out of our hands. [00:10:54] And that, for me, is another side of the problem that not too many people are talking about today. [00:10:59] But for me, what we need is some good leadership. [00:11:02] We start need to be making some fiscally responsible decisions. [00:11:06] It's not happening at the moment, and it's creating a big problem. [00:11:10] You know, we talk about the dollar. [00:11:13] We talk about gold. [00:11:14] Gold is the real money, but the dollar reigns as the king still of the world, even though it's being challenged. [00:11:21] In the last probably a year or so, especially when the rates started to go up because they were artificially low, and people knew they would start up. [00:11:32] But as the rates went up, it drew money and some dollars away from gold, and gold tended to go down. [00:11:40] It's still related to that. [00:11:43] On a daily basis, you might see this. [00:11:46] If the rates are going to go up, and that's where the Fed sends very confusing information. [00:11:53] You know, once some one thing is happening and they're doing something opposite to it, and to sort it out, it's just practically impossible. [00:12:01] But right now, though, my theory is that eventually, yes, interest rates are very, very important on gold. [00:12:09] But as I recall watching what happened in the 70s, it wasn't the whole thing. [00:12:14] We ended up with very high interest rates and very high gold prices. [00:12:18] So do you think about that connection one way or the other? [00:12:21] Do you agree that the dollar, you know, the interest rates is dominating some decisions, but maybe there'll be a lot more fed into the system than just that? [00:12:33] Absolutely, yes. [00:12:34] And, you know, we saw gold up until the last couple of months dip off on the back of major market downside earlier in the year. [00:12:43] And a lot of times when stocks drop, right, and when, as you mentioned, other currencies are getting hit worse than the dollar, a lot of people flood to dollars. [00:12:52] It tends to be short term, right? [00:12:54] After the crash in 2000, we saw a strengthening of the dollar that lasted two or three months before it corrected down. [00:13:01] Same thing in 08, right? [00:13:02] And, you know, everyone thinks about 2008. [00:13:04] They think about gold prices going through the roof. [00:13:07] What they forget, initially, gold dipped about 30% on the back of a stronger dollar, and then it went parabolic. [00:13:14] But I definitely see parallels today to the 1970s. [00:13:20] That was the last time we had a climate of stagflation. [00:13:24] And I think one of the big drivers for gold, obviously, was the inflationary piece, right? [00:13:28] As inflation rises, it drives gold and silver up. [00:13:32] They are, at the end of the day, intrinsically, they are commodities. [00:13:35] So by definition, as inflation rises, it drives them up. [00:13:39] The other thing about the 70s is there weren't too many options, right? [00:13:43] Stocks were coming down, housing was coming down. [00:13:46] So it drove a lot of safe haven demand to gold. [00:13:49] And gold grew tenfold between the 70s and the 80s. [00:13:53] Let's not forget something. [00:13:54] In the 1970s, we had more options than today, because at least in the 70s, you could put your cash in the bank and beat inflation, getting 16, 17%. [00:14:04] We don't even have that today. [00:14:06] And I think, you know, I talk to people a lot. [00:14:08] I think we got a very conducive climate for gold in terms of the nature of our problems. [00:14:14] But I think the other side of it is a lack of viable options out there. [00:14:18] For me, precious metals are the way to weather this storm. [00:14:22] Right, Chris? [00:14:24] Dr. Paul, this will be my last question. [00:14:27] I wanted to make a comment about Birch Gold because we value our relationship with Birch. [00:14:33] We love having Philip on from time to time. [00:14:36] But me personally, I'm the one that deals with the company behind the scenes. [00:14:41] And I do want to say that these are from everyone that I've dealt with, they are a bunch of professionals. [00:14:47] It is a pleasure to deal with them. [00:14:49] And I'm glad that we have our partnership. [00:14:52] But the question I wanted to get to is: a lot of our viewers, some, in our comments, will say, you know, we love what you have to say about gold. [00:15:03] Everything you're saying is true, but it's just too expensive. [00:15:06] You know, we don't have the money to buy gold. [00:15:08] So I wanted to get your thoughts on that, Philip. === Oil Prices and Currency Fluctuations (05:20) === [00:15:11] And I also wanted to say, you know, this week, the price of silver has gone up substantially. [00:15:16] So what are your thoughts? [00:15:18] And how do you handle people that, you know, they think that gold is just out of their reach? [00:15:23] Look, you know, gold as a price per ounce today is about 80 times the price of silver. [00:15:29] So, you know, in terms of dollar amount, it's a sizable chunk of change. [00:15:34] In terms of value, though, I think gold is still cheap today, right, in that respect, in the sense that look at where it was in 2011. [00:15:42] Gold was 1,960 an ounce. [00:15:45] Today, over a decade later, we're trading below that level. [00:15:49] So it constitutes a good buying opportunity. [00:15:51] But you are right. [00:15:52] Look, thousands of dollars is a lot of money. [00:15:56] Silver, for me, is a very good alternative. [00:15:58] Price per ounce, very, very low relative to gold, right? [00:16:02] Spot price is around $26 today. [00:16:05] And really interesting from a growth perspective, silver is actually very undervalued relative to gold. [00:16:12] Historically, they traded around 16 to 1. [00:16:15] Today, they're over 80 to 1. [00:16:17] Post 70s, 30, 40 to 1 is about normal. [00:16:20] So silver's really cheap. [00:16:22] It's also used a lot, right? [00:16:24] Industrial consumption is rising. [00:16:25] Solar technology, electric cars require it. [00:16:28] So silver is a very interesting alternative to gold and a very interesting growth play today. [00:16:33] So I would say to those listeners where gold is maybe out of reach today, look at silver. [00:16:38] Very interesting alternative. [00:16:40] You know, we talk a lot about the various things in the economy that will affect the dollar and gold. [00:16:48] And under a gold standard, we wouldn't have enough activity to do because we would probably say gold is a stable currency and we can define it. [00:16:59] And as long as you have free market pricing, it works pretty well. [00:17:02] But that's not the case. [00:17:03] We have this interventionist economy and they have to weigh things. [00:17:06] Like earlier, we talked a lot about interest rates, how that affects it. [00:17:10] But, you know, if you look at just the CPI, that's pretty important if it's up and down. [00:17:18] Sometimes when it goes up, gold goes down. [00:17:21] I keep thinking, oh, no, when the CPI is going up, the gold ought to be going up. [00:17:25] Eventually it does that. [00:17:26] But on the short run, the interpretation might be different. [00:17:30] Also, the value of the dollar on an international exchange market. [00:17:33] And Chris touched on that. [00:17:35] The dollar is very, very strong compared to the other ones. [00:17:38] But maybe the other ones are just very, very weak. [00:17:41] Anticipating, you know, what the dollar is going to do, I think, is a major challenge to the people who are in and out of the currencies. [00:17:49] But the dollar, it's interesting to see and try to speculate and when will happen. [00:17:56] And I'll tell you what, I don't think it's very easy. [00:17:58] That's why I like stable definitions. [00:18:01] I want people to know what the definition of a currency is. [00:18:06] And interest rates, we've already talked about the interest rate. [00:18:10] But the other thing that we haven't mentioned yet, but was a big deal in the 70s and has been a big deal already, and that is oil. [00:18:19] And, you know, Saudis, it's not the same as it was in the 70s, but we had oil skyrocketing and boycotts, and oil went from a couple of bucks a barrel up, you know, huge, huge amounts, increases. [00:18:35] And that always, the oil went up, gold went up. [00:18:37] We kept doing this. [00:18:39] And right now, we've had, at the beginning of this downturn and this inflationary siege that we're under, you know, the oil prices did go up up to over $100. [00:18:51] Tell us a little bit about how you look at these oil markets, because, you know, basically, if you look at the fundamentals over a period of time, my impression would be, well, the oil prices are going to go up. [00:19:03] But there are variables. [00:19:05] Right now, gold is gold. [00:19:07] I mean, oil is significantly down from a peak, you know, a few months ago. [00:19:12] But what's your opinion of what's going to happen in the oil market? [00:19:16] Look, oil is an interesting one. [00:19:18] We've seen a reduction in oil prices, as you rightly point out, but it was basically on the back of oil prices absolutely skyrocketing. [00:19:26] A lot of it depends on policy, right? [00:19:29] Let's see what happens in the elections in 2024. [00:19:32] If we start pushing domestic, you know, we could see a reduction in oil prices nationally. [00:19:37] But, you know, long term, I think prices just go up in general. [00:19:41] I think this inflation, everything that's happening in Russia, obviously the Europeans are struggling massively on the back of surging gas prices. [00:19:49] All this does is create more economic uncertainty. [00:19:52] Economic uncertainty, at the end of the day, is good for safe haven assets and I think ultimately good for gold. [00:19:59] Look, you know it better than me, Dr. Paul, but in my lifetime, certainly, looking at the state of the global economy, looking at the decisions being made geopolitically, I haven't seen a better climate for gold, right? [00:20:13] We talk about our global reserve currency. [00:20:15] We talk about the Saudis. [00:20:17] I think there's been a lot of political blunders. [00:20:19] China right now, obviously speaking with the Saudis about trading oil outside of U.S. dollars. [00:20:25] We have BRICS nations pushing to set up a global reserve currency to rival the dollar. === Wasteful Spending Dilemma (03:12) === [00:20:31] Obviously, I think that's things like that tend to happen at a glacial pace. [00:20:36] But for me, the trajectory that we are heading into as a nation is very, very concerning, and we're getting very close to the point of no return. [00:20:44] Like I said, this for me is a problem of leadership. [00:20:47] And I think if we can get a handle on that, we can change the trajectory. [00:20:51] But either way you look at it, we have a tough storm to weather. [00:20:56] And I think precious metals are about the only way to weather this storm. [00:21:00] Very good. [00:21:00] I'm going to close pretty soon, but I do want to bring up a subject that's in the news even yesterday, dealing with the federal budget. [00:21:09] It tends to be excessive, I would agree. [00:21:12] A little bit high. [00:21:13] But anyway, they passed an emergency bill for it's going to last a week. [00:21:18] By that time, it'll be a couple days before Christmas. [00:21:20] Then there'll be more arm twisting and they're going to try to pack it in. [00:21:24] It's just criminal what they do up there because it affects the American pocketbooks. [00:21:31] But last night they got this passed. [00:21:34] In the Senate, the House has already passed $858 billion. [00:21:38] Talk a minute about, a lot of people say, well, the spending is inflation. [00:21:42] Well, there's a relationship there, but we have to have a Fed to deal with that and turn it into inflation. [00:21:50] And that to me seems like the real dilemma. [00:21:53] And I'm sure you've given that some thought and pay attention to some of these deficits that don't seem to be going to go down anytime soon. [00:22:02] Yeah, listen, look, not all spending is bad, right? [00:22:06] But sadly, wasteful spending is absolutely inflationary. [00:22:10] And this is a point that I stress often. [00:22:13] The Federal Reserve have a job to do, but that job will be impossible if we keep running massive deficits. [00:22:22] I mean, it's unbelievable, right? [00:22:24] And the problem, like I said, is the nature of the spending. [00:22:27] It is very wasteful. [00:22:28] This is not a time to be building bridges to nowhere. [00:22:32] This is not a time to be paying down student debt. [00:22:36] This is a time to be hunkering down, pulling money out of the economy and getting through tough times. [00:22:41] And this, for me, is the big issue. [00:22:43] And like I said, it's the nature of that spending. [00:22:47] Sometimes debt spending can generate economic activity. [00:22:51] But my concern is that most of the spending being pushed forward by the Democrats looks like a desperate attempt to buy votes in anticipation of a 2024 election. [00:23:02] And for me, this isn't the time to be saddling the country with debt just to try and get another term. [00:23:07] It's irresponsible and it's never going to work. [00:23:10] Listen, there was a guy called Alan Meltzer, and Meltzer was a Federal Reserve scholar at Carnegie Mellon. [00:23:15] And talking about government spending, I think he summarized it well. [00:23:18] He said, look, never in history has a country that financed big budget deficits with large amounts of central bank money avoided incredibly high levels of inflation. [00:23:30] I think that tells people what they need to know. [00:23:33] There are no exceptions to this. [00:23:35] So it is very important to stop this wasteful spending. [00:23:39] Otherwise, inflation will be here. [00:23:42] Excuse me. === Inflation Warning (01:16) === [00:23:43] Go ahead. [00:23:46] I want to go ahead and close, but I want to emphasize the fact that Philip is the economist for Birch Gold, and he keeps up on this. [00:23:54] I want to give them a chance maybe to send out an address there if they want to follow him more closely on what he's doing, because he gets here periodically. [00:24:04] So far, we've had a lot of favorable comments about it to go over some of these details that he goes over a little bit differently than we do. [00:24:14] But Philip, why don't you go ahead and sign off and tell the viewers what they can do if they'd like to follow what you're writing and saying and doing a little more closely? [00:24:28] Yeah, so look, they can reach me personally. [00:24:33] I have a social media account on Getter. [00:24:35] It's at Philip Patrick on Geta. [00:24:39] And for some really good information for all of your listeners, they just have to text secure, S-E-C-U-R-E, to 989898. [00:24:49] Again, that's secure to 989898. [00:24:54] Philip, I want to thank you once again for being with us today. [00:24:57] And I want to thank our viewers for tuning in.