Jeremy Wiseman and Jerry Kariah argue physical gold and silver—up 900% and 800% respectively over 20 years—outperform paper proxies like ETFs, with Guildhall’s 16-year track record enabling Canadians to hold them in tax-advantaged accounts. Silver remains undervalued despite a 120% surge, while gold-to-Dow ratios (now ~11:1 vs historic 1:1) signal potential shifts. India’s remonetization and global demand hint at metals’ rising role as inflation hedges, urging direct ownership to avoid currency debasement risks. [Automatically generated summary]
Welcome to another edition of The Real Money Show.
Thank you so much for joining us.
Today on the show, we're going to cover basic fundamentals in the market and questions that we get a lot from our clients in the market.
At Guildhall, we focus on actual physical precious metals.
We don't do paper investment vehicles, and we'll do some comparison on that.
And we deal also with helping clients to own actual physical gold and silver in their registered accounts.
And we're going to show you exactly how that works.
My name is Jeremy Wiseman.
I'm joined by Jerry Kariah.
Jerry, how are you doing this holiday season?
Not bad.
How are you, Jeremy?
I am very good.
Great to be very good.
So back on Rebel.
Let's start with very quickly a review of the fundamentals.
Why own gold?
Why own silver at this point in time?
Well, I think we have the fundamentals are still at play.
The old legacy fundamentals is as we always have done.
Guildhall has been around since 2002 and hosted the radio show since 2008.
So 16 years talking about the same thing.
We talk like a broken record.
And that the fundamentals have always been currency debasement, which is inflation, supply and demand, and geopolitical risks and concerns.
So those are the four pistons and the four fundamentals or pillars as we call them that support the market, that support the cause and the why ownership of physical.
We don't deal with proxies, proxies, add counterparties, or layers of risk.
Things like certificates, there has to be someone to give you the cash value of that, or an ETF or a pooled account.
All of these things do not give you the titled, unencumbered ownership.
What we provide to you at Guildhall is direct ownership.
Take it home, put it in your, dig a hole, put it in the ground.
And the fundamentals have played out nicely.
Over the last 20 years, gold's up in Canadian dollars, 900%.
Silver's up about 800%.
We still think silver is incredibly undervalued.
Hopefully we'll give a little bit more reason on that throughout the episode today.
And of course, we think there's a lot further to go.
And one of the things that you would notice or we try to explain to people is that it's not that gold has risen.
It's that the currencies have fallen.
Your purchasing power has gone a lot less over the years than it really should be.
And that's both taxation and inflation.
I was talking to a client the other day, Jerry, and I was saying, you know, if you've made a couple hundred thousand dollars a year for 10 years, you've given $800,000 to the government over a 10-year period.
I mean, imagine keeping some of that.
That's one of the reasons why we love the RSPs, because if you can save some of that money back and make it work for you, defer those taxes, you'll be happy to pay those taxes later.
Right.
You know, some people will say as well, Jerry, to jump into this maybe a pricing conversation, but also this is what we do with registered accounts is people will say, well, I don't want to pay the taxes that I've deferred, right?
But if you ask them, would you rather make $100,000 or $500,000?
The answer is always, well, I'd rather make $500,000.
It's like, you're going to pay a lot more taxes on that.
Sure.
Right.
Well, this is why having gold and silver in a portfolio is so great because it doesn't pay a dividend, I know.
It doesn't give you interest.
You have to pay to store it, but there is a finite amount of it.
You need blood, sweat, and tears to take it out of the ground.
And it is de facto money.
It has always been universal money, which is a store of value.
And it's been around for thousands of years.
And so if the currencies can be printed out of nowhere and the currencies can just continue, the debts can continue to balloon, then you want to have this asset that counters that.
That's right.
My background is in currency, so I view with that lens.
Everything is denominated in a currency.
And there is a great chart at goldprice.org where you get to see what gold has done, what silver has done over the past 15 years versus every single major currency.
And gold has protected.
It's been your hedge against currency purchasing power loss.
On average, about 11 to 12% per year.
Now, this year, we're fighting back because silver is up approximately 120%, and gold is sitting around 66% higher, all supported with fundamentals.
The fundamentals are now being remonetization, revaluation, scarcity-driven growth, industrial and monetary conversion.
Silver is being reintroduced as money.
Gold is going into tech and aerospace and military applications.
And it's moving from hedge to growth catalyst.
And it's, you know, it's very wise to start converting and seeing, you know, valuing your wealth in ounces versus depreciating currencies.
That would be my message because, you know, there was an MBA, a stock guy, his name is Graham Summers of Game Pains Capital.
He recently wrote that people like to point to stocks, especially today, as signaling that everyone is wealthier.
And I heard one of these financial planners in Toronto on Bay Street telling we're just, you know, we're happily up.
A lot of us in this room are up a lot and performance and doing really well in stocks.
But those in the lower, lower half of the consumer base, they're struggling because of inflation.
That's what he said.
I remember you telling me this in the office.
He was saying, well, you know, there's a headwind that there's basically there's lucky ones, there's the wealthy ones.
And the headwind is that those who haven't been able to keep up aren't doing well.
Right.
But with, you know, with Guildhall, you can buy a 10-ounce bar of silver every month.
We have a monthly buyer's plan.
But here's the point.
According to the charts, the SP is 500, is up over 400% over the last two decades.
However, stocks, again, are priced in U.S. dollars.
And thanks to the true state of inflation, not the CP lie, the U.S. dollar has lost over 40% of its purchasing power during that time over the last 20 years.
And when you price stocks in gold, which cannot be devalued or printed, the SP 500 is down, actually, is actually down since 2006.
So gold has outperformed the SP.
Gold has been a safer play.
You're not chasing the winning pick.
And it's what central banks are doing.
We want to become our own central banks and build your own reserves outside of a digital banking system.
I think the biggest challenge, of course, is going to be the cost.
Why Gold Outperforms Stocks00:03:21
True.
There is a cost to buy physical gold and silver.
And there's other options out there.
I'll always be talking to clients and this will come up a lot because price is always, we like when people are price conscious.
We want them to be price conscious.
And they'll say, oh, can I do it?
Can I do it less?
Like, what can you do?
And you can do it for free.
You won't own anything.
But there are ETFs that you can't take delivery of.
There's pool accounts you can't take delivery of.
There's gold-backed funds you can't take delivery of.
I'm talking, you have to be a very large client, almost institutional buyer to be able to have access to take delivery.
Yes.
These vehicles aren't meant for you to take delivery.
They're meant to put assets on the financial institution's balance sheet.
You pay for it, but you don't get access to the product.
So you own nothing.
And if you want to have an insurance for your portfolio, you actually want the asset.
And so, yes, you're going to pay for that.
But the reason you're paying for that is because it's a retail product.
So let me just walk you through what that means.
Let's take Royal Canadian Mint as an example.
They have to source this material raw from a mine, refine it to 99.99% purity.
Did I get the point right?
You think so?
Okay.
That's almost 100%.
And then they have to fabricate it into some sort of bar or coin.
They have to package it if need be, right?
Maples get packaged on the silver side.
Gold bars get packaged.
Gold coins get packaged.
Now it's got to go to a wholesaler who's going to then store it.
They have to get it to their properties.
Shipping.
And then they have to ship it to their retailers.
And diesel has gone up over 400 to 60%.
Well, we hope 60%.
We hope that goes down.
But we're very positive that way.
However, the fact is, this is no different than cotton being turned into a t-shirt, lumber being turned into a desk, your favorite chocolate.
All these ingredients are put together, packaged, wholesaled, and then you're buying it at a gas station or shopper's drug mark.
So the fact is, is that these things are fabricated and they move and they've touched all these hands.
And so it is a retail object that you're buying.
And then once you own it, now this is a difference.
Think about real estate.
You buy the property.
Let's say it's a million.
Forget the new taxes.
Right.
And then, but you pay your agent, you pay the land transfer, you pay the lawyer fee.
Then there's all of the other incidentals that go along with it.
But a million-dollar property might cost you $1,070, right?
But you don't think about it.
You're fine with it.
Why?
Because you know it's going to rise in value.
You're happy to hold it for a decade plus, et cetera.
And so you figure, well, it'll all be absorbed in the long term.
And that is absolutely the case.
You can't be price conscious today, knowing where the market can head in the next five years.
That's correct.
Liquidity and Vault Accounts00:14:42
And we have to be very cognizant of who is buying as well, who is buying physical precious metals.
Countries are buying physical precious metals.
I mean, the retail market has gone a little quiet because, let's put it frankly, you know, the average household is under a lot of financial stress.
So that has slowned down.
That has slowed down quite a bit.
The buyers today in the precious metal space in the sector globally are the sovereigns, countries, and central banks.
They're buying regardless of price.
They have made it the goal, and it is their strategy of buying and acquiring physical, especially silver, regardless of price.
And if it's good for them, if it's good for millionaires like David Bateman and others to buy physical, not the proxy, because central banks and their countries require physical for two main reasons alone.
Liquidity and to decouple your wealth outside of debasement of currencies, the digital banking financial system, banking holidays, blackouts, who knows?
So you want to buy something that you have in your possession.
Now, what should someone buy, Jeremy, whenever you talk to someone and they're saying, well, what should I go with?
Coins or bars, gold or silver?
What type of conversations are you having right now?
Well, the first thing I always recommend is not all gold and silver is created equal.
You want to stay away from niche mint, sorry, refiners.
Like Jerry's bullion.
Exactly.
You want to go with the world's largest, most recognizable brands.
There's about 66 gold brands that are regulated to source ethically, refine to the proper purity, fashion to the proper weight, and can handle global business.
And what that means is that You may pay a little bit more for this type of product, these globally respected and well-known brands, and that's all we deal with at Guild Hall.
But when you go to sell, you're opening up your options.
It means you can sell it basically absolutely anywhere, right?
You know, your coin dealer, your bullion dealer, your bank, anywhere in the world, they're going to recognize that.
So like Royal Canadian Mint, for instance, Perth Mint, all of those type of things, Valkambi, Pam, these are types of products that we offer.
So that's going to be number one.
You have to buy the right type of product.
Number two, it really depends on the situation.
So we really believe in crawl, walk, run.
Start small, build up.
And let's say that's something that you want to take home with you.
Tube of silver maples, great.
Perfect.
Maybe even a monster box if you have the budget for that.
We like one ounce bars of gold because those have the lowest premium and the best turnover rate when you go to sell it down the road.
Right.
Right, exactly.
If you're a prepper, and I know that many of our clients have been and have been programmed into thinking that they need to preserve and have something just in case.
A number, a massive number of our clients have came on board recently from former communist regimes and they want to buy coins.
They want to buy silver coins.
We understand and we don't scoff at the idea that you may have to prepare for a Mad Max type scenario.
But if you're also an investor who is cognizant and worried about, okay, let's lower averages.
Let's get more ounces for my dollar.
You go with larger bars because going back to the premiums and fabrication, it costs more to make a maple and the artwork that goes into the coin.
But we're not doing numismatics.
We don't do collectibles at Guild Hall where you have to be very concerned about touch.
You can't touch this or you can't scratch that.
These are bars, goes to the back of the safe.
You know, liquidity is key as long as you're buying major refineries.
And that's what Guild Hall brings to the table.
We will not give you product that's going to compromise your wealth insurance.
You don't compromise in other forms of insurance, car insurance, home insurance, lifer insurance.
You get the full policy.
So with Guild Hall, you get it done with the product and you get it done the right way.
There's a right way of ownership as well.
That's right.
And so within registered accounts, we do gold with serial numbers.
So we're looking at one ounce bars, 10 ounce bars, kilo bars.
And then for silver, we usually want to go with 100 ounce bars of silver, kilo, and kilo bars of silver.
Yes.
So the 100 ounce bars really give you good economy.
And the kilo bar is close in price to the 100 ounce bar, kilo being 1,000 grams, 32.15 ounces.
And so that helps you with some of the liquidity.
You mentioned liquidity before.
And that's really the big difference between owning a property asset and owning bullion asset is, yes, there's a cost to buy into the market, but it's liquid.
That's right.
When it comes time to sell your gold and silver, it's automatic.
Yes.
And I think the other thing about what's really unique about the registered accounts is that you can deregister it and take delivery.
So every year we have clients who have riffs and LIF accounts.
And I think it's great that if they don't need the cash, they're happy to take delivery of the product.
Yes.
Whether it's because they're giving it to the kids, they're giving it to the grandkids, or they're just not ready to sell.
Yes.
So they're moving the product from their Riff account and they can either move it into a TFSA, they can take delivery of it, or they could move it into a vault account with Prime Hall, which is moving it into private hands.
In that respect, so there's optionality there, which you don't get that type of option when you're holding a stock.
No, you sell and go.
You can't take home that stock receipt or the stock certificate.
It's like wallpaper put up on your wall.
That's right.
So let's talk about the one question we'll often get: why Guildhall?
Why not go to the bank?
I mean, if you're selling the globally recognized products, then everybody's selling the globally recognized products.
Why Guildhall?
Yeah, it's a very good question.
One that I want to get out of someone when they approach us because I always believe transparency builds trust.
We believe that that's our philosophy.
And cornering those objections is very important.
We want to pull that out of you.
So why Guildhall?
And what I've found is we're a family-run business.
We're a privately run organization.
We're not a bank.
We understand your concerns.
I mean, we were around for a very long time, and we were the pioneers that put the ability for you, the Canadian, to actually own physical precious metals within an RSP.
We partnered with a firm, a self-directed RSP online brokerage to do that.
And what you're getting is titled ownership, segregated, allocated serial numbers the right way.
There are nine storage requirements, and we hit them all.
It was Jim Sinclair who put that together.
And you want to get our investor kit to find out our philosophy, get the ways to get the gold and silver, whether it be to take it home, buy direct deliveries, or even put it into a registered plan.
It's been a very busy season because it's riff season.
People are removing physical because they're cognizant that the purchasing power of the loonies three, five years from now, you're going to be buying much, much less.
Well, I think it's not just you're protecting.
I really think it's about the generational opportunity here of where gold and silver are being revalued to.
So it's a really exciting opportunity.
It shouldn't be something where, you know, I'm really disliking these days this idea of like, yes, I know you're going to hold it for inflation, but it's not about the defense side of it.
It's about, we talked about right at the top of this show that you've given so much to taxes.
How are you going to get it back?
You need to make it back somehow.
That's right.
And here you have an opportunity with these assets that have been suppressed for a very long time, and that's ending globally.
And there's all these moves happening around the world.
Check out the Real Money Show to find out on a weekly basis.
But to talk about why Guildhall over other firms or the bank, one of the big things is that we do have these discussions that we talk to clients and we tailor towards their needs, right?
When are you going to need the product?
How much liquidity do you need?
Is it a short-term thing?
Do you want to buy a house in a year?
You just sold a house and you want to jump back into the market a year from now.
What type of product should you buy?
I'll have people who will say, I want to do all maples in my TFSA or something, right?
As an example.
And you say, so you're going to pay $2 more an ounce.
You're not going to get allocation.
You're probably not taking delivery.
Why not do 100 ounce bars?
And if you need those maples down the road, you could pay the difference and swap it then.
Yeah.
Oh, that sounds great.
Let's do it.
So it's that type of understanding, experience, knowledge, and also caring about the client.
And one thing that I forgot to bring up, why Guildhall wealth?
And I think that should be the number one question that you ask if you are looking for a trusted precious metals dealer.
We were the first back in 2015 to put together the RSPs, the physical precious metals, RSPs.
We've been around since 2002, and we're private, but we don't borrow from the banks.
And when people ask, well, what happens if Guildhall goes down?
Well, why would we go down?
A company goes down because they have debts.
They have liabilities to the bank.
The banks can change the capital requirements, the margin requirements really quick, and they can call that loan instantaneously.
And because we do not borrow on consignment, everything that we own at Guildhall, whether it be the precious metals or the natural fancy Guild of Diamonds, we have under ownership.
We also own some crypto as well.
You know, we have other things.
We have growth potential.
So, gold and silver with Guildhall, we want to position you for the new fundamentals and set up that hedge, especially if you don't have precious metals right now.
Set up that hedge, but it's moved from just wealth protection.
You want to position for that growth catalyst.
That's what it's going to provide your professor.
And ultimately, the thing is, is that when you own physical gold and silver, there is no counterparty.
So, if it's in the vault, it's yours.
We don't have a claim on that, whether it's through a depository account or through a precious metals account with registered accounts.
Guildhall doesn't have a claim on that.
So, the product remains at the vault.
And you would need a new custodian.
And either Brinks would give you a new custodian because we worked with Brinks.
The custodian of the registered accounts would then either take it over or provide a new custodian.
The fact is, is that it's your product.
We don't have a claim on it.
There's no reason to end up cashing clients out.
So, let's move on.
One of the things, because that leads to another question, which is confiscation, which is a question that we'll often get.
Well, won't the government take it from us?
And I'll start off.
Please do.
I find that funny because I always like to frame the question with: they take 35 to 45% of your income tax.
They charge you after-tax here in Ontario, HST, 13%.
And then there's the hidden inflation, which is probably 8%, 9% when they say it's 2%.
So they got you for almost 60% or higher, and you're worried about them confiscating actual physical assets.
And then in the meantime, the price is rising.
And if you don't own it, you're not going to own it.
You're going to own nothing.
And I don't think you'll be happy.
So, or your price rising is satisfied with the yield, right?
But the price rising is a confiscation.
Yes.
If you're not getting into the market, there's nothing to confiscate.
You confiscated yourself.
Yes.
They allowed the price to rise to a level where you said, no, too much.
Too much flavor for me.
Too expensive.
And what ended up happening?
You didn't own anything.
Yeah.
Well, it worked.
They've been on the powers that be, the bankers, they want to keep you away from physical.
Sorry, by the way, in 1933, when they did it, only 30% of the people complied.
Non-compliance.
We know all about that.
With the threat of going to jail, 30% said, okay, I trust the government.
You're backing our currency.
Very different time.
Basically, no income tax at the time.
Very different.
And all of a sudden, 30% said, 70% believed in the American system that said, no, you're not taking my guns and you're not taking my silver.
It's private wealth.
It remains private wealth to this day.
Yes.
This has been under attack, the ownership side of things.
We know that they want you to own nothing and you will somehow be happy.
And since the 70s or the 60s, when they removed the silver standard and they removed the gold standard, there's been a tremendous campaign to keep you away from gold, physical gold and silver ownership, saying it's too difficult.
Who's going to buy it?
Who's going to sell it?
Gold and silver, the most liquid markets.
Gold is the largest market globally, market cap, traded around the clock around the world.
Silver as well, number five, passing Microsoft recently.
But you have liquidity in the market.
But since the 70s, it's worked to the point where in North America, less than 2% of the population own any physical precious metals.
So if they do decide to confiscate, they'll end up with nothing.
And the fact of the matter is the government has already showed their hand.
They've already passed a bail-in law where if your money is just sitting there in a banking system, catching a 3% to 5% yield because that's safe for you and it's beating inflation, which is not.
Inflation's closer to double digits.
So you're actually losing it after one year.
The bank's bail-in clause, how can they just bail in money?
Of course, we've went back and forth with some lawyers.
It's not in black and white.
Well, which account are they going to bail in, Jerry?
They're not going to tell you which bank account they're going to use.
You won't keep your money in that bank account if they told you where.
Whereas whereas if it's, for example, in a registered account and it's physical, it's held in a vault facility outside the banking system.
This is solved.
So it's not ones and zeros.
It's not paper.
It's not in the computer.
And this is something that actually, when it comes back to the cost of doing business, we also have to explain that these are manual trades, right?
We're manually going to submit that to QuestTrade.
Their team's going to work on it.
Ratios And Revaluation00:05:04
That's who we work with.
And then they're going to submit that to Brinks.
And then the workers at Brinks have to physically put it into a vault, record the serial numbers, put the zip tie on it, put it up on the shelf.
In gold, they put it into a segregated safe that's an inner vault.
And they need two people with two keys.
It's like the hunt for red October.
100%.
And so there's a lot of work that goes into making sure that you own the product and have access to the product.
It's a lot of work because you do have to deregister it to take delivery, which you can.
And if you've made a lot of money in it, it's relative.
Yes.
We'll have people, we'll talk to them.
They'll say, oh, I don't want to pay the taxes to the government.
What do you have?
$100,000.
Okay, so you don't want to pay $30,000 to the government.
That's right.
Okay, make $130,000.
Sell it when it's worth $130,000.
Then you can pay the taxes and you still get to net $100,000.
How's that sound?
Yeah.
I had that conversation.
So let's talk about where it's going.
We've got just a couple minutes left.
So let's talk about where gold and silver are headed.
We don't necessarily look at price.
We're looking at value.
And the way you can ascertain that is you want to look at how much gold and how much silver does it take to buy blank.
So for example, in prior bull markets, the gold market peaked at one to one against the Dow.
In 1980, Dow traded at 850 points.
Gold traded at $850.
That's a one-to-one ratio.
In 2011, the Dow was coming off its lows.
That's right.
And we hit a four to one ratio.
Today, we're currently, I believe, around 11 to 1 ratio.
Okay, so we have a long way to get down to one to one or even four to one.
So there's a lot of room to grow.
Another is property.
How many ounces of gold should it take to buy a house?
Forget what the price of the property is.
How many ounces of gold should it take?
What should my income be in gold comparatively over the decades?
And then you also look at silver and you say, okay, well, what's the historic ratio?
Oh, it's 16 to 1.
They pulled out 16 ounces of silver for every ounce of gold.
Well, what are they mining it at?
8 to 1 right now.
Well, what's the current rate?
As we record this episode, it's 68 to 1?
67, yeah.
67.
We have a long way to go to get into the ballpark of 16 to 1.
And so we want to look at all of these criterias together and then as well as price to start to triangulate the following.
And this is going to be a big takeaway for the entire episode, which is how do you know when you're done?
How do you know when you should sell the majority?
I believe you should always keep some of it.
Yes.
You're never going to sell all of it.
But how do you know when it's over?
Right?
Those criteria.
You're going to look at all those different ratios and see that it's fallen into a nice territory.
And then you also want to say, what's resolved?
True.
Has inflation come down significantly?
Meaning, are you paying $40, $50 to fill up your gas tank?
This type of thing?
Is there more money in your pocket?
Are you saying, hey, sweetie, let's go on those vacations that we've been missing the last 10 years?
Hey, you know what?
I feel like shopping for jewelry.
I feel like giving.
I feel like, hey, let's all go out for dinner, these type of things.
This quiet tightening of the belt that, oh, all of these things is only for lucky people.
Right?
No.
Once you start to feel, yeah, I feel like these things are resolved.
I'm not saying we need world peace, but a semblance of it would be nice.
But again, yeah, inflation, the stock market's rolling where you don't feel like, well, look at these valuations.
They're massively high.
I don't feel comfortable buying these stocks with, you know, that the valuations are way, way too high.
So, Jerry, we got about 20 seconds left.
I'm sorry, I took a little bit of time.
No, I think, what are your final thoughts?
Well, yeah, to know where we're going, we have to use these cycles.
We have to use the ratios that have surpassed the data.
I think the data that we use is junk.
I mean, the CP lie, amongst other things, we cannot use these metrics.
We have to go back to historic metrics, the silver-to-gold ratio, and we follow technicals and cup and handles are still alive.
The 160-year cup and handle, the 50-year super cycle chart that suggests gold and silver have tremendous topside potential based on the charts.
But we also have to add in with the fundamentals to know who's buying.
India's remonetizing silver.
India is pretty much cornering the silver market, and they've just allowed the people to own gold and silver and their pensions.
So things are happening.
Gold and silver are the future for the financial system.
We're going to be seeing remonetization to potential revaluation very soon.
Historic Metrics and Fundamentals00:00:29
So you want to be a part of that.
Thank you so much, Jerry.
Again, my name is Jeremy Wiseman.
We are coming to you from Guildhall Wealth, working with Rebel News here.
And we hope you enjoyed the show on the fundamentals of gold and silver and a little bit about how to acquire it for yourself directly as well as in registered accounts.
You can contact us at guildhallwealth.com and speak to us or follow our show at Guildhall on YouTube as well, Guild Hall Wealth Management.