Dr. Daniel Pipes explains Israel’s post-October 7, 2023, strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, military assets (including U.S.-made F-14s), and regime institutions like Tehran’s media hub, targeting Iran’s three-tiered warfare—nuclear, conventional, and terrorism. While Fordow remains unscathed, Levant argues Israel’s precision avoids broader conflict, degrading Iran’s capabilities without U.S. casualties. Pipes notes few states back Iran’s regime; its collapse could weaken global Islamism, expand Abraham Accords-style peace deals, and force Russia out of the region, but risks a reckless Ayatollah Khamenei retaliation. Quick Israeli action may prevent a future nuclear threat, despite critics framing it as an "America First" distraction. [Automatically generated summary]
Feature interview with Dr. Daniel Pipes of the Middle East Forum today about Iran.
Boy are things moving quickly there.
In fact, tonight, the Shah in exile of Iran, whose father was the ruler of Iran before the Ayatollahs, he's giving a major address.
I think he will call for that country to stand up and throw off the Ayatollahs now that the regime has been dashed by Israel so surgically from the air.
Anyways, it's amazing what's happening overseas, and it's amazing that it's being done without any American troops shedding blood.
That truly is the America first way.
Before I get to the show, let me invite you to become a subscriber to Rebel News Plus.
It's the video version of the podcast.
Just go to rebelnewsplus.com, click subscribe, and there you go.
Tonight, is Iran going to topple?
And could a democracy replace it?
It's June 17th, and this is the Ezra Levant show.
Shame on you, you sensorious f**k!
Yesterday, I recorded a feature-length interview with Dr. Daniel Pipes, the founder of the Middle East Forum, who's a bit of an Iran expert, and we had a really good chew over of the subject.
I'll leave that to speak for itself.
But since I talked to Dr. Pipes yesterday, interesting things have happened.
For example, I understand that tonight the in-exile Shah of Iran, the son of the former Shah, is giving an address, which I presume will be for Iranians to rise up and throw out the Ayatollahs who are deeply despised in that country.
I don't know if you know this, but Iran, or Persia, as it's been called historically, is an ancient civilization, very well educated, very sophisticated.
It's not some desert backwater like, say, Afghanistan was.
And when the Ayatollah came in from his exile in Paris in the 70s, he found a modern country, pro-Western country.
Women didn't have to wear hijabs or anything like that.
And he has suffocated the country.
And so many Iranians have turned against the Ayatollah.
Only about one-third of Iranians even regard themselves as religious anymore.
I mean, basically, the country despises the Sharia.
It really is the handmaid's tale in real life.
Anyways, my point is, I think the country is being wobbled by Israel.
And amazingly, the United States hasn't had to lift a finger.
In fact, they just sort of got out of the way and let Israel do the heavy lifting.
Some of my friends in the America First movement don't like what's going on.
They think that this is inappropriate, but how is this not perfect America First?
There's no American boots on the ground at all.
In fact, America, unlike when Joe Biden was in office, is getting out of Israel's way when Israel makes the whole neighborhood safer.
By the way, I should tell you that Donald Trump has been against Iran getting nukes for his whole career.
Let me show you a quick video that I recorded earlier this afternoon, and then I'll get to the main interview with Daniel Pipes.
Here's a quick video I did sort of summing up the reasons why I think it is absolutely America first to take the bombs out of Iran's hands, especially if a country like Israel will do the heavy lifting.
Take a look.
Here's my five-minute video from earlier this afternoon.
Hey, look at this video from Air Force One.
Donald Trump is asked about Iran, and he basically says, I'm going to let Israel do the heavy lifting.
a look we is better than a ceasefire what are you looking for here and not a ceasefire An end for something that will be permanent.
Or giving up entirely.
That's okay, too.
Are you closer?
Are you possible?
Is that possible in the next 24, 48 hours?
Certainly possible.
Complete give up.
That's possible.
Yeah.
Have the Joint Chiefs and the Secretary of Defense drawn up plans for you if Iran were to attack U.S. bases or do any damage to you.
Just can't do that.
Can I ask you, because there's been some skepticism, is there any guarantee that if the U.S. did get involved militarily, that a U.S. bomb could destroy Iran's nuclear program and facilities?
Everything nor anything online, you know that.
Look at you, right?
There's no guarantee.
But you say, I guarantee it, what?
Do you think if the U.S. got involved militarily, it would actually wipe out Iran's nuclear program?
Or where's your assessment on that?
I hope their program's going to be wiped out long before that.
But they're not going to have a nuclear weapon.
When we get here in the BBs, do you have any reason to believe the Israelis are going to slow down or are they going to hit the accelerator right now because they've got superiority there over the next two days?
You're going to find out.
Has the gang of ain't nobody slowed up so far.
Has the gang of ain't been notified about what's coming in the next couple days and we'll be talking to them.
What can you do?
It's not necessary.
I don't understand how Trump's position there can be criticized by my friends in America First.
I do have a lot of friends in America First who are American.
I'm a Canadian who sympathizes with that because America First makes the world a safer place, especially for freedom and democracy.
We benefit from it here in Canada, that's for sure.
Imagine if Kamala Harris or even Barack Obama were still in power.
But I want to say a few things to my MAGA friends that maybe they've forgotten.
And I know it's a bit audacious for a foreigner like me to mention it, but maybe I've got a little bit of distance because I'm not actually in the thick of it.
The first thing I'd say is, for 15 years, Donald Trump has said Iran simply cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons.
He has said it easily a hundred times.
Seriously, just search for the word Iran on Donald Trump's X feed and you will get countless hits.
He's been saying the same thing since long before he was in office.
Here's a quick video montage too.
You cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon.
Everybody stopped.
They were ready to make a deal.
We would have made a deal that was great for everybody.
No nuclear weapons.
You can't give them nuclear weapons.
Now they're going to have a nuclear weapon.
Don't let Iran have nuclear weapons.
That's my only thing.
I have to tell you today, don't let them have it.
They would have never had them.
Including Iran, they can't have a nuclear weapon.
That's all.
They can't have nuclear weapons.
I wanted to make a deal with them.
No nuclear weapons.
You can't have nuclear weapons.
They cannot have a nuclear weapon.
That was the only thing.
I just didn't want Iran to have a nuclear weapon.
I said, you know, we're going to make a great deal.
Everybody's going to be happy.
You're going to be rich as hell again.
Everything's going to be great.
Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.
Very simple.
Piso, they cannot have a nuclear weapon.
But they cannot have a nuclear weapon.
I want to make a deal with Iran.
I want to do something if it's possible.
But for that to happen, it must stop sponsoring terror, halt its bloody proxy wars, and permanently and verifiably cease its pursuit of nuclear weapons.
They cannot have a nuclear weapon.
So I don't think anyone who has followed Trump, like my MAGA friends, can possibly be surprised by Trump's position.
But let me say this in defense of isolationism and pacifism.
Trump engaged in good faith negotiations with Iran anyways, even though he said he cannot accept any other outcome other than disarmament of those nukes.
He still set aside a 60-day period where he negotiated in good faith, during which time Trump stopped Israel from attacking Iran, even though Iran had sent countless missiles to Israel either directly or through their proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.
Now, Iran refused to do a deal.
So on the 61st day, Trump kept his promise.
He permitted Israel to take out Iran's nuclear missile threat, as well as the leadership of the Republican Guard Corps terrorist group, which, by the way, just happens to benefit every other state in the region too.
Arab states like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
If you take a look, the price of oil, you'd think the price of oil would have skyrocketed in the last few days.
Israel attacked on June 13th.
Actually, oil is steady at around $75 a barrel, which tells you the world thinks it's going to be a safer, more stable place.
There's no World War III.
And I see in Bloomberg today that Russia has confirmed they're going to sit this one out.
They've got their hands full in Ukraine right now.
They're not particularly going to come to the aid of a stumbling Iranian regime.
I think the most important thing to realize is the plainest fact of all.
There are no American boots on the ground.
And so far, Iran has shown the discipline not to fire a shot at U.S. personnel.
I have a prediction.
I think that once Iran is either neutered in its nuclear ambitions and its missile ambitions, or if there's regime change, by the way, that's a possibility in Iran.
It's not a desert backwater like Afghanistan.
It's not thoroughly destroyed by ISIS like Syria.
Iran is a great civilization.
It's educated.
It's modern.
And most of its people are secular.
They hate the Ayatollahs.
It used to be a robust, Western-oriented country that has been chafing at the Islamists who've been running it, the cult that have been running it.
I think Iran actually has a future, and there's a person to do it.
People say, who's the George Washington in the Middle East?
Well, his name is Reza Pahlavi.
He's the son of the Shah.
That's who.
I have a prediction that no matter which way Iran goes, if it's a neutered Ayatollah-run theocracy or actually goes back to their king, I predict that there will be another round of Abraham Accord peace treaties within a year, including Saudi Arabia and maybe even Lebanon.
By taking out the big bully who was threatening with nukes, I think the entire region has a new chance.
And Russia and China are not interfering.
You know, for those who wonder if Iran is an enemy of America, Iran's de facto motto for more than 40 years has been death to America.
They call Israel the little Satan, but America is the great Satan.
Through Hezbollah, which is run by Iran, they murdered in a single attack 241 U.S. Marines in Beirut.
Don't confuse being America first with pacifism or appeasement.
That's not what America First means, at least not to me on the outside looking in.
Hey, by the way, looking at the last week or so, what lessons do you think China and Russia are taking?
That America is strong or weak?
That when Trump says do a deal, you should listen or not.
I think in the last week, through Israeli military action, America has become immensely stronger, at least in the minds of Russia and China.
As we saw in a Wall Street Journal expose, they're actually just on the Qatar pay rule.
I admire President Trump because he's making America stronger.
He's ending wars even before they start.
I think that the whole world is safer because of it, including us here in Canada.
But for those who have been MAGA all the time, this is exactly what you voted for.
Anyways, that's my update on my interview yesterday.
So for the rest of today's show, let me present to you Dr. Daniel Pipes of the Middle East Forum.
Let me know what you think of this interview.
Last week, I said Israel's attack on Iran was so effective, so dramatic, so surprising, and so sudden that it marked the most important geopolitical change in the region in a generation.
Israel's Surprising Attack On Iran00:15:19
Now, maybe I was too effusive, too excited by the early results to knock out the top leadership of the Iranian military, including the Republican Guard Corps.
The fact that the nuclear sites were damaged or destroyed.
But as the days go by, I'm more and more convinced of that.
It is true that they've managed to lob dozens of ballistic missiles at Israel, and Israel has not knocked them all down.
And casualties, there's 40 is the latest number I've seen dead and almost 600 wounded.
That's not nothing.
But compared to the annihilation that was in the imagination of so many in the West for so long, it really feels miraculous.
And it gives me a feeling of hope that things can be reordered in that region.
But that's just me.
I don't have any deep sources.
I get my information the same way you do through the internet.
I don't have people in the military in any country that I can call for deep insight.
So when I need that insight, when I need an expert on the Middle East, I know who to go to.
His name is Dr. Daniel Pipes.
He is the founder of the Middle East Forum, and I'm delighted to say he joins us now via Skype from Washington, D.C. Dr. Pipes, great to see you again.
Great to see you, sir.
I really think this is more important than just another battle.
I really feel like for a generation, Iran has been ascendant as a regional superpower.
Obama really helped kick-start it.
And it just, as it was left alone, it grew in power and ambition.
And it was like a balloon was popped.
That's how it looks and feels to me.
Am I wrong?
No, not at all.
There are generally understood to be three levels of military power.
At the top are the weapons of mass destruction, nuclear, biological, chemical.
In the middle is conventional, ships, planes, and tanks.
And at the bottom is irregular, guerrilla warfare, terrorism, and the like.
Throughout the region, with the slight exception of Turkey, the states of the Middle East have given up on conventional power.
Iran in particular.
It has an air force that dates to the 1970s.
It was building or is building nuclear weapons.
It had a very large network of saboteurs and terrorists, jihadis.
What the Israelis have is that conventional force, huge conventional force, F-35s, real ships, ordnance, and the like.
And what we're seeing is that the absence of conventional warfare cannot be made up for by having Hezbollah and Hamas and building a nuclear project.
You can't survive.
Well, your program and your military can't survive if you don't have the conventional.
And as in 1967, so in 2025, the Israelis have a superlative conventional force that is just in a different league order of magnitude from its enemies, whether it be the Egyptians then or the Iranians today.
Today at the G7 in my home province of Alberta, Donald Trump said he thought the Israelis were doing very well.
I think he's right, but of course he would have a lot more confidential information than you and I do.
I think that Israel, in my amateur view, overperformed.
They did a lot of the heavy bombing, including with bunker buster bombs that I thought only the Americans could do.
And I thought that Iran was so built up it would need American help.
And as you pointed out, Israel managed to do it.
Donald Trump can say to his base, some of which is isolationist, he can say there wasn't any boots on the ground.
We weren't quite neutral, but neither were we active in it.
Donald Trump can say, I didn't start a war, which is important to a part of his support base, isn't it?
It is very important.
But two points.
First, the one thing the Israelis have not, as far as we know, attacked is Fardao, which is the single most important Iranian nuclear facility, and it is inside a mountain.
And it would take more than what the Israelis have now to destroy it.
And that would probably require American sorties, not Israeli ones.
And secondly, we don't know if the Iranians can hold back from attacking American interests, American troops, American installations.
I think they're so convinced themselves that the United States is a paper tiger that it will be hard to restrain, if not the top leadership, at least some of the military hierarchy, from going ahead and attacking Americans.
So it's not over.
It could well be that the Iranians do attack Americans and the Americans do attack Iran.
Iran is a huge country population-wise.
I think it's coming up on 100 million people.
So it's a much larger entity.
It's geographically quite large.
It's different than taking out Hezbollah or even Hamas or even the Houthis.
Like it's just so large and it's got a lot of inertia to it.
Israel's had an amazing first week, shall we say, but as you point out, there are some hard targets that haven't been touched.
And apparently the supreme leader of Iran himself has not been targeted by Israel.
Perhaps it would be too provocative for them to assassinate him.
As Israel degrades Iran's ability to lob these missiles, as it takes out more terrorist leaders, what happens next?
Neither America nor Israel are into regime change.
I think that has to come from Iran.
I don't think either has the force to make it happen.
I think America's out of the nation-building business.
What happens next?
Does Iran just sort of become chastened and weakened and slouch onwards?
Or is there some, like, for example, the descendants of the Shah of Iran, Reza Pahlavi, is there a move to bring back the king?
What happens next?
Well, the Israelis have made it clear that their goal is not only to take out nuclear infrastructure, but to damage the region itself.
Earlier today, the Israelis knocked out the television building in Tehran.
And indeed, there's some really rather amusing footage of an anchor inveying against the Zionists and then fleeing her chair as the ceiling starts to fall in on her.
So that's not about nuclear weapons.
That's about disabling the regime and encouraging the population of Iran to rise up and get rid of it.
So if you can't attack all those nuclear installations, an alternative is to open the path for Iranians to rise up against the regime that has dominated their lives for 46 years now.
It's also worth noting that while all of us expected the Israelis to reach the western portions of Iran, to go through Syria and Iraq more or less unmolested and indeed be able to refuel their planes over those countries, it comes as a real surprise to learn that the Israelis have gone so far as Mashhad.
Mashhad is at the extreme east.
It's close to the Turkmenistan and Afghanistan borders.
It is very far away from Israel.
So the Israelis have control over the entirety, what appears to be the entirety of the Iranian airspace.
They can do what they want.
And it looks like what they want to do in addition to the nuclear facilities is knock out the stalwart institutions of the regime, such as the media network and the police and other important regime assets.
You know, I'm in Toronto, which is a real battleground of anti-Semitism, frankly.
And Iran is on both sides of the battle.
There are Iran-funded agents, provocateurs in Toronto who rally every week.
Toronto is infamous for its Al-Qudsday festivities.
But on the other hand, there's a lot of Persian Canadians who hate the Ayatollah, who actually show up in solidarity with the Jews.
And I think it's the same way in other Persian expat communities like in Vancouver and Los Angeles and places like that.
So Iran really has a large diaspora, many of whom fled the Ayatollah, others who are here to undermine the West.
Is there a movement among the Persian diaspora to go and try and help retake their country?
I saw a bit of that when Kurdistan was trying to become independent.
I saw sort of Kurds around the world go back home to try and help.
Is that an animating idea in Persians around the world to take back Iran?
There certainly is a considerable diaspora that wishes to take advantage of this opportunity and get rid of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
There are also, as you point out, this regime allies in the West.
I can't give you a percentage breakdown.
They both seem formidable.
They both are very active.
I think you mentioned the Crown Prince, Reza Pahlavi.
He has emerged in the last few years as a far more serious leader than he was.
I met him some 20 years ago, 25 years ago indeed.
And he was somewhat of a fringe figure.
Now he's important and he has become something of a rallying symbol and more than a symbol, a figure of importance in himself, somebody who can make decisions.
So I think there is a diaspora that is potentially able to, it has money, so it is able to invest.
It is able to Encouraged.
It is able to send messages.
There is a considerable media empire in Los Angeles beaming messages to Iran.
So, yeah, it's important.
You know, right before the October 7th, 2023 terrorist attack, Rebel News went on sort of a fact-finding mission in Israel and the United Arab Emirates to see for ourselves how the Abraham Accords were taking root.
And frankly, I have to tell you, I was very touched by it on an emotional level because it felt so real.
It wasn't just a dry piece of paper.
It felt genuine.
And I had never been to the United Arab Emirates before, and I was quite convinced.
And when the disastrous anti-Semitic terrorist attack happened on October 7th, part of my thinking was this is designed to derail the larger peace project of the Abraham Accords.
And I think it did certainly stress that.
But over the last week, it seems to me, other than some perfunctory statements by, say, the Crown Prince in Saudi Arabia, if you look at the actual actions from Saudi Arabia Jordan, or just the silence from, let's say, Syria, it looks like the region is on Israel's side.
And I think that in my own mind, this clears away the largest barrier towards peace and prosperity in the region.
I don't know.
I'm having a little bit of that hopefulness come back in that I felt when I visited Dubai.
Right.
Well, the Israelis cleared the way for the Syrians to get rid of Bashar al-Assad in December.
They are now opening the path for the Iranians.
It would be astonishing if within months of each other, two of Israel's worst enemies are overthrown by dint of Israel's response to October 7th.
You know, the Middle East is full of surprises, and nobody saw this coming.
And yet it is now a reality.
And should the regime in Iran fall, this is a new era in the Middle East.
It has been the Iranians who've been driving the politics of the Middle East now for close to half a century.
They've also been driving the Islamism around the world.
Now, granted, they're Shia and not Sunni, but still they have supported Sunni forces such as Hamas and others.
And they have been the powerhouse of the Islamist propaganda.
And should the regime fall, this would be enormous for the Middle East and beyond, for the Islamic world.
You know, Saudi Arabia in recent years has become more moderate.
They really have.
And I say that, I'm not going to say grudgingly, but I say that cautiously.
Like I wouldn't, I would be the last to say that, not the first, but I believe it's happened.
Sure.
I think that it was Saudi Arabia's new Western moderate agenda.
And if Iran is changed, I think that the whole world will see less radicalism, less funding of radicalism, less direction of radicalism.
It feels so hopeful.
And in the backdrop is the Palestinian cause, which I think was often used as a distraction or a projection of Iran and Saudi Arabia for their own reasons.
I saw a headline, I didn't look deeper than it, that Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, says he's going to delay his proposed conference on Palestinian statehood.
I didn't read beyond the headlines, so I might have been misled by that simple headline.
But that sounds about right.
To think that intransigent Palestinian leaders are now the center of the action or have the momentum when Syria and Iran are tumbling feels very obsolete immediately.
What's your thought on the state of, like, that feels like a real Joe Biden initiative as opposed to a Donald Trump initiative?
What's your thoughts on the future of, quote, Palestine?
Well, Palestine is definitely on the margins at the moment, but Palestine always comes back and will come back again.
Russia's Stance on Palestine00:03:29
And it'll be, you know, when things calm down, however, they do calm down, they will be returned to the Palestinian cause against Israel.
Now, should the Iranian regime fall, this will have a tremendous impact on the region and will isolate the Palestinians, weaken the Palestinians.
Should the regime survive, then things will not have changed that much.
But in any case, the Israelis have taken an initiative.
And as you correctly assess, there is much relief in the governing and the powers of the corridors of power throughout the region.
I would say, even, I would go so far as to say, even in Accra, there's probably quite some pleasure at what is taking place.
There are very few states that are glad to see the Islamic Republic continue in power.
And I would also note the Pakistanis had a little war with Iran not too long ago.
So, yeah, this is, it enhances Israel's position and it weakens the Palestinians, no matter what happens next.
But it could severely, severely change the position of the Palestinians.
However, Palestine will return.
It always does.
I note that in his report on his truth social media platform, Donald Trump said that in his recent call with Vladimir Putin, he talked a little bit about Iran.
And it seems to me that one of the things Trump was, and I think maybe you told me this, one of the things Trump is trying to achieve was to get, to say to Russia, if you come to terms in Ukraine, and if we help you there, get out of Iran.
I mean, what was Russia was pretty heavy into Iran and Syria.
It invested tens of billions of dollars into those relationships.
I mean, it had a very active port and air force base in Syria, which Russia doesn't have a lot of those around the world.
So it was invested in the region.
I suppose they're distracted by bigger issues right now.
What do you think Russia's take on this whole thing?
Well, when it comes to Syria, the Russians are still there.
Both the port and the airbase are still in Russian hands.
And the new government has been slow about challenging the Russians and is ready to work with the Russians, despite the fact that not so long ago they were being bombed by the Russians.
So the Russians haven't lost everything in Syria.
In Iran, Iran is more important at the moment because the Iranians are supplying weapons, particularly drones.
Doesn't look like that's going to be happening in the next months or years, even.
And as you say, Putin has invested a great deal in ties with Iran, and he is the loser.
Now, Donald Trump is a bit of a cowboy.
You don't know what he's going to say, and you don't know what's on his mind, but he did suggest to Putin that if Putin is helpful here, there might be benefits for him, Putin.
What Trump has in mind, I don't even dare try and guess.
I want to throw one last thing by, by the way, thank you so much for giving us so much time.
I was reading an essay by Dominique Cummings, the former advisor to Boris Johnson and the British Conservatives.
He's a conservative.
Steve Bannon's Influence00:03:25
He's a little bit like Steve Bannon in that he's a big thinker, outside the box, bit of a troublemaker, a bit rogue, tells it like it is.
I find him very interesting.
Dominique Cummings is his name.
And he recently wrote that serious people in the UAE, he didn't name names, but oligarchs, titans, princes, whatever, are now saying, don't send your children to school in the UK because they will be radicalized and Islamized.
Don't send them there.
And I just was riveted by that.
I mean, he has a little bit of a discussion about that.
And I thought, isn't that quite something?
The United Arab Emirates more moderate on Islam than UK hothouses of their universities.
And I don't know if he was saying that to be dramatic or if that's just one anecdote that he pumped up.
But it struck me as credible that the leaders of UAAE are saying, don't send your sons to the London School of Economics or to the, you know, Trinity College in Ireland because they'll come back ready to join the jihad.
What do you think of that?
It makes sense.
And it also taps into a saying, I think in the 1950s, maybe earlier, that if you want your child to become a communist, send him to Paris by Coachin.
If you want to have him become a capitalist, send him to Moscow.
Yeah.
Not nuke.
Oh, interesting.
But you mentioned Steve Bannon.
If I might just pick up on that for a second.
He and Tucker Carlson and others in the MACA movement are furious with Trump.
And it looks like it could be a breach.
I mean, Carlson in particular insulted Trump.
Not the way you wield influence in this administration by insulting Trump.
So let's watch that.
Yeah, I saw that here.
Let me play a little bit of a clip of the two men talking.
Here's Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon.
I actually really love Trump.
I think he's a deeply humane, kind person.
And I am saying this because I'm really afraid that my country is going to be further weakened by this.
I think we're going to see the end of American Empire, obviously.
Other nations would like to see that.
And this is a perfect way to scuttle the USS America on the shoals of Iran.
But it's also going to end, I believe, Trump's presidency and effectively end it.
And so that's why I'm saying that.
What do you mean by that?
That's coming from you.
You get, look, I knew Bush.
I knew George W. Bush.
We had family connections to Bush.
I knew Bush personally.
I still see Bush sometimes.
And, you know, of course, he hates me.
And he does because I criticized him on Iraq.
And that war is the sum total from historical perspective of his administration.
But I knew him and he had all kinds of plans for the things that he wanted to do.
Domestically.
Domestically, to improve the country.
And you may agree or disagree, but like in his mind, he wasn't just about the invasion of Iraq in March of 1950.
Oh, no, no.
He was going to redo Social Security and all that.
100% dog type something.
He was going to take care of the entitlements issue.
And he really thought it was going to work.
And you could laugh at that or whatever.
But the point is, the second you get enmeshed in a real war, not a fake, let's go bomb the villagers and declare success, though we don't even have a good track record.
Iran's Folly00:06:55
Like, why are the Houthis still there?
That's a whole other question, which is how prepared is the U.S. military for a real conflict?
And the answer is totally unprepared, scary unprepared.
I don't think people understand that.
But anyway, the only reason I'm saying any of this is because I really, really care.
You know, I like both Steve Bannon and Tucker Carlson, and both men have been kind to me.
So I have declined to weigh in on my differences of opinion with them.
I think if I were to give them the most generous possible reading, it would be they don't want America involved in foreign wars.
They don't want American blood or treasure spilt in foreign wars.
And the good news for them is there hasn't been.
I'm sure there is intelligence sharing between the CIA and Israel.
It goes both ways, by the way.
But as far as I know, there hasn't been any Americans involved whatsoever in this war.
It's two other countries beating each other up.
And thankfully, the one whose motto is death to America, the one that blew up Marines in Beirut, the one that commits terrorism around the world, the bad guys are losing.
Israel is taking out the trash of anti-American murderers.
How that offends the America First ideology, which I happen to share, by the way, beats me.
I think that they sort of, you know, and again, I don't want to read in any bad faith to what they're saying because I like those guys.
But their professed ideology is America First.
How is it anything but America First for Donald Trump to stand back and let Israel beat up a local terrorist group?
Where's the beef?
I think there's another dimension, which is that they focus on China.
So any diversion from focus on China to them is offensive.
And insofar as Israel and Iran are now dominating here in the United States, that is offensive to them.
They don't want to hear about the Middle East.
They want China, China, China.
Now, granted, China is a bigger threat than Iran, but it's not the only problem in the world.
Ukraine is a very important issue, and Iran, Russia, and Ukraine, and Israel and Iran.
These are very important issues.
So with all due respect to China, there are other topics that must be dealt with as well.
Well, that's the thing.
I mean, the State Department can walk and chew gum at the same time.
And like I say, Israel is doing the heavy lifting here.
I just, I mean, I myself do not want Americans embroiled in other wars.
I want the wars to be wrapped up.
And I like the way this one in Iran is going.
I mean, I hate war, but either the war comes now with this lopsided Israeli victory, or God forbid the war comes in 10 years when those ICBMs dropping down in Tel Aviv have nuclear bombs on them.
I know which war is a better one for Israel and better for humanity of any religion.
Absolutely.
But they are also worried that the Iranians will attack the United States, as I mentioned earlier, and that therefore the United States will attack Iran.
And that they see as a calamity because it diverts attention and weaponry and the like from protecting Taiwan and otherwise gearing up for tensions with the Communist Party of China.
I mean, earlier today, I saw Israeli Air Force imagery of an attack on two ancient F-14 jets.
As you know, before Iran defected to the Ayatollah, before the revolution, it was an ally of the West.
And it actually bought state-of-the-art U.S. fighter jets at the time, the F-14 Tomcat, which, by the way, has a cameo appearance in Tom Cruise's Top Gun movie, Top Gun Maverick.
I don't know if you saw that, the one that came out a couple years ago.
Tom Cruise is shot down in Iran.
He has to get out.
He finds some of those old F-14s.
He knows how to fly them.
He hotwires them and gets out.
It was a fun little scene in that movie, but it's based on a fact.
Iran has some 50-year-old U.S. fighter jets that barely fly.
And today, they were destroyed by other U.S.-made fighter jets, probably F-15s or 16s.
The reason I mention this, besides having the little anecdote from Top Gun, is for Iran to try and attack the United States after it's been so degraded by Israel, I just don't think that's going to be a very punitive attack.
I mean, listen, what do I know?
But I think this, listen, 40 or 50 people are dead, 600 are injured.
That's not nothing.
But as Israel's wars of survival go, this is a pretty low cost for it and extremely low cost for everyone else who gets the benefit from it.
There's a phrase we use, negative externalities.
That's when something goes wrong, but everyone else pays the price for it.
I'm not sure what the term is for when something goes right and everyone else gets the benefit of it.
Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Oman, even Qatar, all of these, Jordan, all of these places just benefited without a drop of blood.
Some of them were kind enough to help shoot down some drones.
I think Jordan did that recently, Saudi, whatever.
But I don't know what you call it when there's a positive externality that a whole bunch of people get.
That's just what happened.
Right.
While it would be folly for the Islamic Republic to declare war or engage in hostile actions against the United States, I wouldn't preclude it.
Such folly is not uncommon when you are steeped in your own ideology.
By analogy, let me mention December 8th, 1941.
There wasn't a reason in the world for Hitler to declare war on the United States after Pearl Harbor.
And yet he did, immediately after Pearl Harbor, which was a disaster for him.
It could have been a U.S.-Japanese war without the United States entering in Europe.
But Hitler made that easy.
It was folly.
I think it resulted from Hitler's mindset, mentality.
And I think Khamenei is, in a similar way, captive of his ideology and could see benefit in initiating hostilities against the United States.
Could, could.
I don't know, but it could happen.
Very interesting.
Well, these are definitely a time of crisis.
And crisis also sometimes mean opportunity.
And I think there is an opportunity for the world to be safer, freer, and more prosperous.
Dr. Daniel Pipes, the founder of the Middle East Forum, great to catch up with you.