Ezra Levant highlights a new Abacus poll showing Justin Trudeau’s Liberals at 37% (potential majority) while Aaron O’Toole’s Conservatives hit a low 27%, down from Andrew Scheer’s 2019 peak. Alberta’s 39% Conservative support masks frustration over O’Toole’s carbon tax, with Senate elections this fall—featuring NDP activist Duncan Kinney and an unclear UCP-aligned lobbyist—seen as a protest vote. Despite economic struggles (8.2% unemployment, record debt), Trudeau’s border policies and censorship laws like C-36 ($70K fines for tweets) fuel backlash, yet alternatives like Bernier’s PPC or Jay Hill’s Mavericks lack momentum, leaving civil liberties groups planning legal challenges against what Levant calls "un-Canadian" restrictions. [Automatically generated summary]
If you're Aaron O'Toole, he is now at his lowest poll number since he was elected conservative leader.
I think if he stays on this track, he's not only going to lose the election, but lose his own seat.
And that is the silver lining.
I'll tell you what I think is going to happen.
I'll show you the polls, and I'll tell you who I think should pick up the reins when O'Toole drops them.
But before I get to that, let me invite you to become a subscriber to Rebel News Plus.
It's the TV version of this podcast.
You get my show every day.
Sheila Gunnery, David Menzies, and Andrew Chapinos do a weekly show.
It's just eight bucks a month.
Go to RebelNews.com and click subscribe.
In addition to the video version of the show, you'll have the satisfaction of knowing that you are keeping Rebel News strong and independent.
We don't take a dime from Trudeau.
All right, here's today's podcast.
Tonight, a new poll shows Aaron O'Toole at a new low and a looming majority for Justin Trudeau.
It's June 25th, and this is the Ezra Levant show.
Why should others go to jail when you're a biggest carbon consumer I know?
There's 8,500 customers here, and you won't give them an answer.
The only thing I have to say to the government of White House is because it's my bloody right to do so.
Why O'Toole Might Lose00:15:16
How is it possible that Justin Trudeau is so high in the polls?
The economy is precarious.
We've had massive unemployment for over a year because of the lockdowns.
It's still 8.2% unemployment.
It's actually up from last month.
How did that happen?
It's going in the wrong direction.
And worse than that, the labor participation rate fell, which means fewer people are even trying to find work.
National debt's at an all-time high, of course.
And now inflation is coming back.
Housing prices are high economically.
I think we're in trouble.
Part of that is because Trudeau refuses to open the border with the United States, refuses to normalize Canadian industry, even though the pandemic has receded.
So on top of the economic malaise and their growing risk of inflation, we have violations of civil liberties.
We have massive stress because we're not allowed to live like humans need to live.
And we're being propagated with a constant message of fear.
This new variant, that new mutation.
Add to that scripted panic, the opposite approach with vaccines, downplaying any risks, changing the health rules to obviously cover up for political mismanagement, lack of supply.
It's a very stressful time in Canada because of the lockdowns.
And then there's the general animosity that Trudeau and his cabinet have whipped up.
Anti-Alberta sentiment that's leading to frustration and separatism there.
Deliberate strategies to create discord along lines of race and sex and sexuality and between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Canadians.
Demonizing any of his opponents is hateful.
And now bringing in censorship laws to silence opponents.
My point is you'd think that would be some fodder for the opposition.
But I guess other than the pandemic, that was the case for Andrew Scheer, too.
And back then in the last election, add in the shock of Jody Wilson Raybull being fired by Trudeau for opposing his corruption scandal and add in the shock of the blackface photos.
Andrew Scheer couldn't get the job done then.
Incredibly, Aaron O'Toole is doing worse, actually worse than ever.
Here's the latest poll from Abacus.
Now, I know one of their principals, David Coletto, he worked at the Sun News Network, good guy.
The chairman of Abacus is a senior Liberal Party operative.
Bruce Anderson is his name.
So I discount some of what they do because he really shouldn't be allowed anywhere near a polling company that claims to be neutral or nonpartisan.
But that said, other polling companies in recent months are saying the same thing.
People just don't plan to vote for Aaron O'Toole.
So keep this on your screen for a bit.
Here's from the Abacus poll.
You can see that red line at the top.
That's the Liberals.
They're at 37% now.
That's majority territory, depending on how the other parties divide up the spoils.
The NDP have been bouncing around 18% forever, as you can see.
That's the orange line.
The block looks strong in Quebec.
It's at 9% in the polls nationally.
But remember, you've got to basically quadruple that to properly reflect their strength in Quebec.
And the Green Party is sagging, which is to Trudeau's benefit, especially in BC.
But look at that dark blue line near the top.
That's Aaron O'Toole's Conservatives at 27%.
Fourth poll in a roll now that they've been falling.
Lowest level for O'Toole since he was elected leader.
Just to compare, even the hapless Andrew Scheer had 34% in the last election.
In fact, he had more actual votes numerically than the Liberals who had 33%, but Scheer just had them lumped up.
The Liberal vote was spread out better strategically.
But now Aaron O'Toole is literally 10 points behind.
And it's not just Ontario and the Atlantic.
Look at this.
Here's them broken down by province or region.
The NDP is looking strong in BC.
I believe that.
I think the Liberals hurt themselves by throwing out Jody Wilson-Raybold.
I think Trudeau generally ignores the West.
I think the province's provincial NDP government, while bad, isn't as awful as they could be.
In fact, they've had the lightest touch in Canada for the lack down, if you can believe it.
So maybe that's redounding to the credit of the federal NDP.
I'd like to say it's a three-way split there, and it sort of is, but really, the Conservatives are in third place there.
Isn't that incredible?
Third place in BC.
Alberta, 39% for the Conservatives, 34% for the Trudeau Liberals.
I remember when that number was 60% for the Conservatives.
The Trudeau Liberals had 34% in Alberta.
How is that even possible?
Do I believe that Albertans love Justin Trudeau?
I do not think so.
I think they're just so disgusted with Aaron O'Toole and his carbon tax and his woke cancel culture and his clear message that true conservatives are not welcome in the party.
Seriously, Trudeau is within the margin of error of Aaron O'Toole in Alberta, and why not?
If you want a carbon tax, why not get it from Trudeau, who at least is honest about it, instead of from a flim-flam man like Aaron O'Toole who wants a carbon tax but lacks the ability to look you in the eye and try to say, no, no, no, no, this is a carbon levy.
It's totally different.
What a weird sales pitch.
He's losing.
It's actually worse than Saskatchewan, Manitoba.
It's a statistical tie.
Trudeau, actually ahead.
Saskatchewan, incredible.
Even more fossil fuel and mining and commodities and export-oriented than Alberta.
And of course, the carbon tax devastates farmers too.
It's the big bullseye for the carbon tax.
So yeah, not surprised they have no time for O'Toole.
They want an alternative, not an echo.
Oh, this was supposed to yield a payoff in the rest of Canada for O'Toole, but it hasn't happened.
Liberals are at 42% in Ontario.
That's 13 points ahead of O'Toole's Conservatives.
That's a total wipeout in the greater Toronto area.
There's so many seats there.
But in the suburbs, too, that's losing probably, I don't know, two dozen seats in Ontario, if that number holds up.
Quebec was never strong for the Tories, but look at the Atlantic.
That could well be a total sweep again.
So what are we looking at?
A Trudeau majority?
Trudeau's third win either way.
When he ought to lose or at least be held to minority.
Not that a minority would make a big difference.
He has a minority now, and tell me how it's hobbled him at all.
I mean, Parliament barely meets.
The media is complacent.
The NDP and the bloc support the Liberals on their worst plans, like their new censorship plans, C10, and their new censorship plans in C-36.
So it's as bad as it is, anyways.
And even on the unusual occasion when all opposition parties unite to oppose Trudeau, he just ignores them.
Like when they demanded public documents, for example, about the pandemic, about Chinese spies and our virus lab, things like that.
Trudeau just ignores Parliament.
In fact, he's suing Parliament.
He learned that contempt for Parliament from his dad.
Here's an interesting chart.
It compares the state of affairs right before the last election with right before this looming election.
Trudeau is 14 points stronger relatively.
The government is 11% more popular.
His own reputation is 5% better.
O'Toole, by contrast, has barely half the popularity as that empty void that Andrew Scheer did.
Most people don't want a change in the government, they say.
This is too bad.
It doesn't have to be this way, you know.
What could make a difference is leadership is in taking a strong position, communicating it clearly, not deviating from it, not being scared away from it by the CBC, and asking people to follow us and changing the political landscape.
O'Toole did the opposite.
He thought he'd conform to the political landscape as shaped by Trudeau and the CBC.
He spent his political capital not fighting to win over new voters, but fighting to impose a carbon tax on his own party that his own party hates.
And he's declared war on the populist and conservative elements of his base and on us too at Rebel News.
Of course, it won't win him a single vote from the Liberals or the NDP.
They love watching him fight his own party.
It will make conservatives stay home.
At least that's what the polls seem to say.
How opposite from Ron DeSantis of Florida, who won his governorship with less than 1% margin a couple years ago.
But by solidly opposing the lockdowns, not being blown off course by the media, fighting against big tech's cancel culture, fighting against Chinese meddling even, slowly, relentlessly pushing back at the media.
He's becoming a very popular governor and he's shaping the politics of that important state.
It used to be a toss-up state.
It's not anymore.
It's Republican.
He didn't conform.
He shaped his world.
Aaron O'Toole has conformed, and so he's playing the role handed to him by the media.
He's the happy loser, but he will lose.
You know, in 2012, O'Toole entered parliament in a by-election, and he got nearly 51% of the vote.
But by the next election, 2015, that shrunk to 45%.
And in the next election in 2019, that shrunk again to just 42%.
But the party is failing worse than that.
If O'Toole slips a few more points, and if the NDP consolidates behind the Liberal in his own riding, there is a real chance that Aaron O'Toole will lose his own seat, along with two dozen others in Ontario.
Hey, they deserve it.
They're not speaking out.
Let them go down with the captain.
But you know, O'Toole losing, that's the silver lining there.
You know, the Conservatives look to be on track to get slaughtered in the looming election.
That is bad for Conservatives, but it is very bad for Canada.
But if O'Toole is kicked out of Parliament, perhaps the party can start from scratch and replace him and undo the damage he's done this past year.
You know me, I'm for Pierre Polyev, the most effective MP in Parliament.
He's not wild.
He's not erratic.
He's not extreme.
He's just solid and articulate and strong and conservative.
It's a shame that we're all going to have to lose again and stay lost for probably four more years to get back.
I hope there's something left to save by then.
Stay with us for more.
Welcome back.
Well, I'm out here in Toronto, which I can assure you will be a city that not a single conservative MP wins.
That's not hard to say.
It happens so rarely, certainly south of the famous 401 highway that's all liberal red.
The only diversity, maybe the odd new Democrat who sneaks in.
But what about Alberta?
One of the safest places I see that the conservatives are under 40%, and the liberals are just, I don't know, 5% behind.
Now, I take this with a grain of salt because Abacus Data, you know, their chairman is a liberal activist, Bruce Anderson.
But I think this is in accord with other polls.
Is Alberta, is Saskatchewan, is the West are they enamored with Trudeau or just disappointed in Aaron O'Toole joining us now from Edmonton, Gateway to the North City of Champions, is our friend Lauren Gunter, senior columnist with the Edmonton Sun Lauren.
Great to see you again.
Thanks for joining us.
Hey, you're welcome.
You know what?
I have an animosity, not a personal animosity, but I'm a deep critic of Aaron O'Toole.
So I'm going to rely on you to be more fair.
Not that I'm unfair.
I'm just mad at the guy.
I think he's blown it.
I think he just was so, he put all his eggs in the carbon tax basket.
I just, I mean, the fact that he doesn't talk to Rebel News doesn't bug me that much.
No conservative MP does for some reason.
I just think that he's not that conservative and he's blowing it.
What do you think?
Yeah, I agree.
I agree.
So don't expect me to try and be fairer than you about Aaron O'Toole.
I mean, in the last two months, I've called him a dud in print.
Then he came out with this carbon tax plan.
I called him a dishonest dud.
And I just think he's bumbling.
You know what?
I think the biggest single problem he has is you look at popular, successful conservative politicians.
In Canada, you look at Ralph Klein, you look at Mike Harris in Ontario.
In the rest of the world, you look at Ronald Reagan.
You look at Margaret Thatcher.
Those were people who took conservative positions, even Stephen Harper, conservative position, and made them palatable to centrist voters.
I think what Aaron O'Toole is doing is trying to take liberal views and make them palatable to conservative voters.
And that's simply not important.
You know, I think the abacus data is way off in the West on the liberals.
I do not sense any support for the liberals beyond the usual suspects, you know, a few downtown lawyers in the big cities, people who are looking to be appointed to the bench at some point, and the activists who always like the liberals.
You get beyond that group.
There is no sense that I get of any support for the liberals.
I think what's happening federally is what has happened provincially in Alberta, and that is that the UCP government under Jason Kenney is not very popular.
Its support is under 30%.
But the big beneficiaries, not the liberals.
It's not the New Democrats.
The New Democrats are exactly the same support level that they've been at since they were defeated in the 2019 election.
The big beneficiaries have been the undecided.
Undecided provincially in Alberta are almost up to 30%.
And that's because you have a lot of right-of-center people who don't think that the UCP is serving them.
And I think you've got the same dynamic going on federally.
You've got an awful lot of right-of-center voters in Alberta and to some extent in Saskatchewan who don't like Aaron O'Toole.
They think he's weak.
They don't think that he's conservative enough.
They don't think he's conservative at all.
And that is my sense of what's happening.
Yeah.
You know, there's one thing I'll mention about this Abagus poll, and I don't want to talk too much about the methodology or anything because it, frankly, other polls have said similar things.
It doesn't measure Maxime Bernier's People's Party.
Now, I know what they would say.
They would say, well, that, you know, he doesn't have a likelihood of succeeding and he doesn't have a seat.
Well, okay, but they measured the Green Party and they've only got a couple.
I sense that alienation, that none of the above-ness that you talked about provincially.
I sense that federally.
Running for the Maverick Party00:10:49
And there's the Maverick Party.
I think if they had tested People's Party and Maxime Bernier and Maverick, I think they would have seen different numbers, at least in Alberta.
It's that once-a-generation Alberta mood of the system's failed us.
Maybe let's start a new party.
Like this has happened in Alberta.
For those who know the history, Preston Manning and the Reform Party, way back in the day, the Social Credit Party.
I mean, Alberta comes up with new parties in a way that really no other place in Canada does.
Even before that, the CCF.
You know, I mean, if you go back as far as the 30s, an awful lot of the impetus for starting the CCF, the precursor to the NDP, came out of Alberta and Saskatchewan.
So we're not afraid of starting new parties.
I don't get any sense that Maxime Bernier has any traction at all in Alberta.
None.
The People's Party doesn't register in any of the conversations I have.
Nobody I talk to says.
The Maverick Party does.
Maverick Party with Jay Hill, who is a former conservative MP under Stephen Harper, does have some traction.
What it doesn't have yet are recognizable candidates.
And I think that that's the thing that stands between it and maybe being competitive in four or five places.
My biggest concern for them is that we will see liberals elected because the federal conservatives under O'Toole are so weak.
And the Maverick Party might come up just enough to split some votes and let liberals walk down the middle in a few urban riding.
But there are really only four ridings out of 34 in Alberta where the liberals could possibly win, two in Calgary, two in Edmonton.
And even at that, like Edmonton's very lefty mayor, Don Iveson, was sniffing around at maybe trying to get the nomination for Edmonton Center.
But the MP from the Liberal MP from that riding who lost in 2019 announced he was running for the nomination this week.
And I think that is a sign that Iveson is not running because the party would have cleared the decks to let Iveson win uncontested.
So I don't think Iverson is going to win.
And I just don't think that Justin Trudeau can muster enough support in any location in Alberta, even in downtown Calgary and downtown Edmonton.
I don't think they can muster enough support to win a seat.
Yeah.
Well, I find it very frustrating.
And I don't think Justin Trudeau cares about getting, I mean, he'd like a seat in Alberta, but he doesn't care.
He's going to pick up 20 seats in Ontario.
He's going to wipe clean the Atlantic.
He doesn't care.
I mean, and by the way, he doesn't need a majority.
The NDP and the block give him a working majority anytime he needs one.
Do you mean he's going to pick up an extra 20 seats in Ontario?
Is that what you meant by that?
Because he's going to get way over 20.
Oh, yeah.
Sorry.
Oh, so Trudeau.
Yeah, he's going to.
I mean, I think the Conservatives are going to lose seats in Ontario, perhaps up to 20.
I think so, too.
I think so, too.
I think the Liberals are headed for 80 seats in Ontario.
I think they're headed for 25 to 30 in Quebec, and they'll get 34 out of Atlantic candidates.
And it matters not what happens from Manitoba West.
They don't care.
They would love to pick up a seat in Alberta, but that would only be to rub it in our face.
There's no other reason.
It would not change federal policy one iota to have liberals elected.
I mean, we have Amarjeet Sohi, who was the natural resources minister in Trudeau's first term, who was an Edmonton MP, who's now running for the mayor.
I wouldn't vote for him.
I mean, Amarjit Sohi's a very nice man.
I've met him several times.
He's a very pleasant person.
I wouldn't vote for him to be the head of the Rotary Party because, or the Rotary Club, because he was Trudeau's natural resources minister when they started stripping the energy business in Alberta.
So, but that's the kind of animosity there is towards the liberals in Alberta.
I can't see them electing an MP unless there's vote splitting.
And there could be because Aaron O'Toole is simply so weak.
I mean, we thought Andrew Scheer was bad.
Yeah.
I think Aaron O'Toole is worse.
Yeah, you're right.
You know, as I get older, I truly believe the saying, things can always get worse.
They always can get worse.
I want to ask you about something that I think is about to get worse.
And you're making me very sad.
It's a very depressing conversation, but it's great to see you, my friend.
There's a couple of Senate vacancies in Alberta.
And Alberta, for about 20, 30 years now, actually more, has been trying in fits and starts to reform the Senate.
Now, that can be done by a province unilaterally.
It's in the Constitution.
It's a federal power to appoint senators.
But Alberta has historically had some Senate elections, sort of like a plebiscite.
It's not binding, but if you have a half a million votes, you've got some authority.
And whereas the liberal prime ministers typically ignore that, like when Harper came in, he appointed those who had been elected in earlier elections.
So Jason Kenney has scheduled Senate elections to coincide with the municipal elections in Alberta this fall.
And so far, I think there's only two people who have indicated their intention to run, a Labor NDP activist named Duncan Kinney and a Aaron O'Toole, Jason Kenney lobbyist, I think with the last name Barutz or something.
I can't recall.
But I think, Lauren, if ever there's going to be a place for Western sentiment to express itself, it would be in that Senate vote because nothing big turns on it.
You talked about vote splitting, Maverick Party, Conservative Party.
Albertans, I don't think, would worry about a vote split because it's the Senate.
It's a purely symbolic middle finger to Ottawa, but it could also be a middle finger to Jason Kenney and Aaron O'Toole by any frustrated conservative.
I think if the right candidate were to run as an independent or an independent conservative, they would not only beat the O'Toole candidate or the Kenney candidate, let alone the NDP candidate, they could have a real firebrand who would be dedicated to criticizing Ottawa and the half-conservative parties, too.
And you would have a bully pulpit.
You would be selected as a senator.
It's entirely possible that before this vote is even held in October, that Trudeau will have appointed two people to fill the vacancies in Alberta.
And it will be entirely moot.
But you'd still then be the Senate selection choice of Albertans, and you would have the ability to go around the province making speeches.
You'd have the people would phone you.
Reporters would phone you and say, hey, what do you think?
And you would have that opportunity for about a year, year and a half, two years to just get ideas out there that aren't being put out by the, as you call them, the half-conservative.
Well, I actually, I mean, Lauren, I don't know if you remember, but a generation ago, like a quarter century ago, actually, I worked for the Reform Party, and there was a provincial Senate election.
And Jean-Cretchen did that exact thing, like right before the election, as a big thumb in the eye to Albertans.
He appointed Doug Roach, was the name of the senator.
And it was his way of saying, not only am I going to pick, I'm going to do it in your face to show you what I think of your election.
Well, still, that election went ahead and people voted.
Every single person who voted not only was choosing their choice, but was flipping the bird to Cretchen in return.
So I think Trudeau will absolutely play that same playbook.
He'll appoint a really irritating senator right before the vote just to say, I'll show you who's boss.
But that will provoke Albertans to go out and vote in mass.
Now all we need is a conservative candidate, Lauren.
Is there anyone you can think of?
No, although I was asked yesterday and I said, no.
Well, I'm glad someone was thinking of you.
That's an excellent suggestion.
I'm too comfortable in this library here to give that up.
But, you know, there's a practical side to that, too.
The Conservative Party will have a large organization.
They will have money to put into this.
So will the UCP.
It remains to be seen whether the People's Party or the Maverick Party or just an independent organization could come together, find a half a million dollars to run a decent province-wide campaign with a little bit of TV, certainly a quarter of a million, though.
And as fair or unfair as that may be, that's how things work in folks.
You need to have a little bit of money.
But you could get a firebrand, a well-known Albertan, who said, look, I don't care whether I get appointed or not.
I'm running to make a point.
Vote for me to make the same point.
We're not happy with the way things are in federal politics right now.
And I am going to be the personification of your disgruntlement.
And I think that would work.
Well, I tell you, Lauren, if I was an Albertan, I mean, I've been out here in Toronto long enough.
I don't know if I could claim to be in Albertan anymore, even though it's in my blood.
I tell you, I would consider throwing my hat in the ring.
I mean, I briefly ran for parliament almost 25 years ago.
I think someone has to run who's not from the O'Toole Party or the Kenney Party.
I think someone has to run to do exactly what you said, to take a club and bash Ottawa and the system every single day.
And it's not going to be the NDP or Duncan Kinney, and it's not going to be this generic Conservative Party registered lobbyist CBC pundit.
I forget her name already.
Boy, oh, boy.
I think that's actually an important election, even though Trudeau's going to screw it up.
I'm going to keep brainstorming for candidates.
Lauren, it's great to see.
I'm glad someone else thinks you'd make a great senator.
I think it's true, by the way.
It's because of the white hair.
Well, you know, if you ever do throw your hat in the ring, let us know because I'm sure we'll endorse you.
Although that might be the kiss of death, I don't know.
But anyhow, great to talk to you again, my friend.
Likewise.
Censorship and House Arrest00:02:18
Okay, there you have a Lauren Gunter, senior columnist with the Edmonton Sun.
And as you can hear, I'm not the only one who thinks he'd make an excellent senator.
If you have an idea, send me an email at ezra at rebelnews.com because we've got to get someone running.
Stay with us.
more ahead.
Hey, welcome back on my show last night on Bill C36.
Bruce writes: This is a Trojan horse bill, as is C-10, so that political foes can be prosecuted, but they can't prosecute back.
Well, yeah, what's so interesting is that complain about your neighbor, how you're afraid of him section.
It doesn't even require police or prosecutors.
Anyone in the country can now seek vengeance against anyone in the country, and they just have to prove they're afraid.
No, you don't have to commit a crime to be locked under house arrest.
It's terrible.
If you want to look through the law, the bill rather, it's at stopc36.com.
You can read the bill for yourself.
Maurice writes, where are the conservatives on this bill?
Well, I haven't seen anyone speaking out yet.
I'll let you know if I do.
Paul writes, signed and shared.
Thanks for that.
You know, I don't know exactly what we're going to do to fight Bill C-36.
I don't know if it's going to be passed because, of course, it was just introduced.
Parliament's probably going to break for an election, etc.
So I think the bill will have to be reintroduced under the new Parliament, probably given a different bill number.
But we're going to have some time to think about what we're going to do.
The first thing, obviously, is we have to ensure that the Conservative Party opposes this bill and not in some mealy-mouthed way.
The second thing we have to do is mobilize other civil liberty groups, other media groups, other political opponents.
But finally, I think what we're going to have to do is go to court with a charter challenge because some of the insane censorship and arresting people for having the wrong views, house arrest, mandatory blood and urine samples, $70,000 fines for tweets, secret accusers, secret trials.