Manny Montenegrino and Ezra Levant dissect Canada’s 2019 election, where Justin Trudeau won despite Andrew Scheer’s higher vote total due to 650,000 NDP-to-Liberal shifts. They blame the NDP’s collapse on strategic anti-Conservative voting and financial struggles, warning of weakened opposition. Trudeau’s cabinet reshuffling, UN vote against Israel, and USMCA delays—prioritizing U.S. Democrats over Canadian interests—highlight leadership failures, while economic reliance on America and Western separatism risks deepening regional divides. Canada’s future appears precarious under Trudeau’s inconsistent policies. [Automatically generated summary]
Tonight, a feature interview with Manny Montenegrino about the state of Canada in 2020.
It's December 23rd and this is the Ezra Levant Show.
Why should others go to jail when you're the biggest carbon consumer I know?
There's 8,500 customers here and you won't give them an answer.
The only thing I have to say is government.
But why?
It's because it's my bloody right to do so.
And joining me now via Skype is our friend Manny Montenegrino, the CEO of Think Sharp.
Manny, great to see you again.
Great to see you, Ezra.
Merry Christmas.
Well, thank you very much.
And to you too.
2020, I don't know, some people had hoped it might be different, hoped that Justin Trudeau could have been dislodged as prime minister.
I was always skeptical because the media party, they love him.
They're his base.
They dragged him across the line.
And even though Andrew Scheer got more votes, well, sorry, that's not how the system works.
Trudeau won more seats and he's prime minister.
Right.
No, you're absolutely right.
It is for those that thought that the Conservatives could win easily, really don't understand the history of politics in Canada.
Never has a Liberal Party with a majority not won the next election.
It's never happened.
And, you know, the challenges is that there are, as you said, with respect to the media and et cetera.
But the biggest thing is, is that Canadians fail to, most Canadians fail to understand that you need a robust NDP and a robust Greens and bloc and so on in order to have a Conservative win.
There are about, you know, if you look at the history of Canada, there's about in the last seven, eight elections, at maximum, 36, 37, 38% of Conservatives.
And there's a pool, of course, of 61, 643, up to 70% of progressives.
What the Prime Minister did right, I think, in this election is he borrowed from the progressives.
He didn't even call himself the Liberal Party in the last election.
He basically called the progressives, we progressives have to stick together.
Well, what he did, and it worked, is about 650,000 votes went from the NDP from the last election.
And the last election wasn't a good election for the NDP, but 650,000 votes to the Liberals.
And that makes you win a few seats.
And the results are such that there's a minority government.
Yeah.
Jagmeet Singh, I mean, when he first hit the scene, I thought, wow, he can out Trudeau in terms of selfies and looking good and hip.
And he's on the kids' social media.
I see him doing dance moves on an app called TikTok, which is like really for the generation Z.
And I thought, well, finally, he can out Trudeau Trudeau.
But no, I don't think that worked.
I think that liberals went with Trudeau because he was as far left as any NDP.
But strategic anti-conservative voters said, well, I like Jagmeet Singh, but we can't afford a split on the left.
I think it was all strategic voting.
And frankly, Trudeau was giving you everything a traditional NDP government would give you.
Trudeau is uniting the left.
Exactly.
And that's a big story that we don't see in the media.
We see a lot of stories about the Conservative Party and Shear whether he's going to be challenged or otherwise.
But to me, the biggest story is the NDP completely went back to its very tiny base that it once had prior to you had Jack Layton and his miraculous work that he did in the very few elections, as well as McClair did a pretty good job.
So that's the biggest story is the collapse of the NDP.
If there wasn't, and I did the math, Ezra, if the NDP just kept what McClaire had or did what Jack Layton did, and you go through the numbers, there would have been a strong conservative minority, maybe a majority.
Isn't that interesting?
You know, it's not just that Jack Meet Singh didn't really tear it up on the campaign trail.
It's that the party has little cash now.
Its parliamentary budget has been cut in half since its caucus has been cut in half.
And even if they were faced with a bill that they really, really wanted to vote against, I don't know if they could afford to have another election right now.
The Conservatives did well fundraising.
The Liberal incumbents will always do well fundraising.
I think Jack Meet Singh is trapped because he doesn't want to hit the hustings again.
I think Trudeau has a de facto majority because those NDPs, by the way, the bloc is bigger than the NDP.
I don't think the parties are going to have a quick election.
I think this could be a long-standing minority government.
I agree with you.
I agree with you.
And I think that's the consensus of most of the experts out there.
They're saying exactly that.
The block, how many more seats can they get?
Why would they risk, I mean, we talk about jobs and pensions for the NPs now.
Why would you risk an election when you're pretty well tapped to your max as the bloc and they have the greatest influence?
It's a minority government.
They could get more seats and it'd be a majority and they'd have less influence.
So they've got the strongest influence.
They have little money and they have a self-interest that's keeping it going.
So you're absolutely right.
With respect to the NDP, you're right again, Ezra.
I mean, there's certainly no appetite.
There's no money.
And they've got to get, I think they have to find a new base.
They went from a base of Quebec as a strong base.
And now they've got to find their base again.
And that's going to take a little while.
It certainly isn't out west.
It isn't the traditional.
And they're fighting the 4016 with Justin Trudeau and the Liberals.
So they don't have, like, you know, you know, when you start these campaign wars, you need a base.
And what's your base?
Where are you going to fight from?
So, and they plus they have no money.
So your assessment is right.
I think we're, you know, unless some crazy thing happens again that no Canadian can stomach.
And the Prime Minister is pretty good at getting these shocks to Parliament and shocks to everyone.
Unless one of those happens again, it could go a long time.
You know, one thing I want to talk about is the cabinet, because one of the, I think that Catherine McKenna, the former environment minister, I think she was an irritant to the West because she was so dogmatic and I think quite shallow.
And just I think her tone started to grate.
I mean, people who liked her, I guess, liked her a lot.
But she was shuffled out of the environment.
I thought that was an interesting signal.
The Liberals ran another environmental extremist named Stephen Gilbo.
He used to be the head of Equitaire, which is like the David Suzuki Foundation of Quebec.
He was not given environment either.
He was put into heritage.
So they put someone less incendiary into environment.
They took Christy Freeland out of foreign affairs.
So they took, I don't know, the media certainly called Freeland and McKenna stars.
They moved them out.
I think they created a bunch of fake cabinet positions so they could maintain their gender equity.
What do you make of the new cabinet?
I'm glad McKenna's out of there.
Don't think a lot's going to change substantively, but they did take their two stars and demoted them.
I think what they did, Ezra, and you're absolutely right, in my view, it's a demotion, but the media won't say it's a demotion.
But I think what they did is they put a silencer or a muzzle on the cabinet.
I think it's strategic, Ezra.
The last cabinet was too vocal, too screechy.
Yell out loud, and you'll be heard.
Yell out loud, and they will agree.
And I think everybody took, basically in the cabinet, took their position from the prime minister who was out there on every issue and being very vocal.
Have you not seen, Ezra, that the prime minister is pretty well MIA now?
They've muted him.
And I think the strategy now is mute all cabinet.
No more be seen.
You know, Catherine McKenna was, I mean, we saw more of her than of anyone.
And same thing with Christina Freeland.
So I think what's happening is get those boring old white guys there that the media doesn't kind of give all the attention to.
And perhaps this will take the spotlight on all the ineptitude of this government away.
Yeah, you know, there's such a thing as overexposure.
People get tired, especially if you're a little quirky or if there's something that irritates overexposure.
You see it with regular celebs.
Political celebs are by nature less likable.
Starting with the Hard Stuff00:03:34
And, you know, it's funny.
After the election, Trudeau said, I'm going to really reach out in harmony with the West.
He went literally one month without a press conference.
One month, not without a press conference, without taking reporters' questions, a whole month.
Right, right.
And there was no stories in the Canadian media saying, why is the Prime Minister hiding?
I think everyone just was happy to have a break, but that's a month of no, it's zero, literally zero accountability.
Yeah, well, the biggest show on the road was the CFL Gray Cup.
I mean, there is no greater unity of Canadians under sport.
I mean, sure, the Stanley Cup would be greater if there are two Canadian teams.
But here you have two Canadian teams.
One represents the East of Canada.
The other represents the West of Canada.
And here they are battling in the province that you're having the most difficulty with.
I mean, if God ever wanted to send an easy kind of layup and say, here's your chance to be seen and start your unification of Canada, it's an East, West, be there, be in Calgary, show up, didn't show up in Canada's game.
And no one's made, no one said, wait a minute, wouldn't that be a neat first step?
And it's not political.
It's not talking to politicians.
It's just showing up.
So Canadians say, hey, you know what?
It was a tough election.
The Prime Minister knows it was a tough election.
But you know what?
He's got guts.
He came here and he's starting.
I would have said, hey, that's one message.
Be there with Jason Kenny at the game.
And as hard as it is for the Prime Minister, you know what's harder?
The deunification of Canada.
That's harder.
So you got to muscle up and do that.
I was shocked that he didn't do it.
Yeah, it's a great point.
He could have sat right next to Jason Kenney as a sign that I don't care if you're mad at me.
I am the Prime Minister of all Canadians.
And the fact that you're mad at me means I have to be here now.
So I don't care if you boo a little bit.
I'm here and we're going to fix this together.
Like, you have a tough love message like that.
Right.
People are going to say, all right, respect.
He knew he was going to get booed.
He came out right here.
He sat next to Kenny and he said a few things.
And he didn't do that because he's he, I hear that he's actually quite sensitive to criticism.
We know that.
And I think that's why he didn't go to Calgary.
That tells me he's not going to go to Calgary a lot because he'll be booed for quite a while.
Well, no, but that goes to the point of everything.
The prime minister does things that makes him feel more comfortable.
So the hard work is doing something that makes you feel uncomfortable.
You see that down south, the president is doing everything that makes everybody uncomfortable.
I mean, he's taking on NATO, but NATO now has hundreds of billions of dollars more.
He's their success.
He's taking on China.
I mean, that's pretty risky.
Yeah, he's starting with the hard stuff.
And so, yeah, every meeting that he goes into is punishing for the president.
But he knows that's how you make your country great.
Our prime minister, if there's a tough meeting, whether it be with the president or whether it be with the East-West Divide, it's easier to avoid that because you know what?
It's hard.
And that's not what we need right now.
We need leadership.
We need a person to go in there and do the tough work during these tough times and stick it out.
Tough Times Ahead00:10:22
Yeah.
Well, let me ask you: I think that things are about to start coming apart in Canada.
And I don't say that with any joy.
I think that we're starting to see the revision of economic numbers.
Call me paranoid, but I think Statistics Canada has been pressured by the Prime Minister's office, just like Jody Wilson-Railbold in the Justice Department was pressured by the Prime Minister's office.
I think they were pressured to hold back on any bad news about the economy until after the election.
I have no proof of that.
I just know that's Trudeau's MO.
And now we're seeing some weakness in the economy.
The oil patch is being divested because of bad policy choices in Canada.
I am worried that you're going to see an economic slowdown.
And I think you're going to see WEXIT, which is the goofy nickname for Western separatism, rise its head up again.
And I think Trudeau has no idea how to calm that down.
And frankly, he doesn't want to calm it down.
He loves that being the angry foil to his charming self.
So I think things are going to be tough in Canada in the year ahead.
And I don't say that with any happiness.
Do you think I'm being too pessimistic, Manny?
No, yeah, actually, Ezra, that's a good point.
Let's use statistics, Ezra.
The United States of America is running about 3%, you know, sometimes up to 4% GDP growth.
Here's a stat, Ezra.
The longest economic growth has been 120 months.
You know, this is a month-on-month without any recession.
America's hit that on July 1st.
We are in unprecedented territory.
It's been 120, I think it's five, six months in December, 127 months of pure sustainable growth in GDP.
That's never happened before.
Everyone knows that a recession is coming.
It should come, just statistically.
So, Ezra, your spider senses are right, but I think you're having the prime minister, sorry, the president of the United States unilaterally focused on his economy.
I mean, pretty much to the exclusion of everything else.
He's really working hard on the economy.
This is why we're in record territory.
You know, I can't see this going on for another 10 months.
I mean, now you're breaking the record by basically 50%, whereas, you know, it's never been more than 120 months.
So it's so, Ezra, you're right.
And then when you look at Canada, we have a problem that America doesn't have.
They have a booming oil and gas industry.
Ours is, of course, punished.
And our GDP growth has been around one and a half, two percent.
But remember, Ezra, 25% of our GDP comes from the United States.
So if they're humming at 3% or 4%, we're picking up a half a point or three-quarters of a point from America.
So most of our GDP growth is coming from America doing well.
So if it doesn't do well, if America smipped into a 1% or 2% growth or even a recession, it's going to be absolutely terrible in Canada.
So you're pretty astute to pick that up.
I think, in fact, by value, our largest export to the United States is crude oil.
I'd have to check our math on that.
I think that's actually bigger than our sales to them on the auto sector.
Let me ask you about America, because I think we're going to be saddled with Trudeau as prime minister for at least two years.
And I don't think a heck of a lot is going to change.
But America is heading.
It's less than 12 months now until their election day.
Their media is in high gear already, whether it's impeachment talk or the Democratic presidential primaries.
I think the whole world is riveted by America.
Trump himself is so entertaining, and the group of opponents to him is so, I don't know, I find them uninspiring, but I'm perhaps prejudiced.
Do you think Trudeau is going to try and meddle in some way?
Trudeau did meddle a little bit in the 2016 U.S. election.
He posed with Hillary Clinton.
Trudeau weighed in on Brexit against leave.
So two out of two he got wrong.
Do you think Trudeau is going to meddle at all or be seen with the Democratic nominee or do something else like that that you know he personally wants to do that I think would actually be a disaster for Canada-U.S. relations?
Oh, yeah, yes, sir.
Absolutely.
I mean, he's already doing the meddling now.
In my opinion, we have a U.S.-MCA deal that was signed over a year ago.
Mexico signed, and Canada has not signed.
And I think that's the great delivery to the Democratic Party to make sure that they don't give Trump another win.
I mean, it's pretty hard when Trump does a bilateral, a trilateral deal with North and South to him.
That's a pretty big victory.
And I think the prime minister is not putting Canadians first because why hasn't he not signed, or sorry, passed in Parliament when he had a majority government for six, seven, eight, nine months?
Why did he not pass it?
I think that's holding out to help the Democrats in their election.
So I've already seen evidence that he's doing what he can to help the Democrats.
I've seen when he had a state dinner in 2016 with Barack Obama, who was campaigning fiercely for Hillary Clinton to sit there and have a state.
I mean, it was unprecedented to see a prime minister have a state dinner when there's an election on, and it's for the guy campaigning against the guy who won.
So there's going to be a lot of Canada trying to help, or not Canada, the Liberal Party and the prime minister trying to help in this election.
How far will they go?
Well, look, we had evidence with how far it went the other way.
We have Barack Obama sending a tweet, and that tweet depressed me, supporting Justin Trudeau's bid for his second election.
This is a man who spent eight years fighting against racism, blackface, and all these white privileged Americans or Canadians, but Americans who take racism not important because of the privilege.
And then he sends a tweet of support to a person who's done it and admitted that he had a life of racism, a life of such privilege that caused him that.
And he sent a tweet.
So don't underestimate what Justin Trudeau owes to the Democratic Party of America.
So it's huge.
Yeah, that's a very good point about Barack Obama.
I want to ask you one last question about foreign affairs because I've detected two changes in recent months.
And, you know, obviously the big one is China.
Everything from their seizure of the two hostages to their agricultural boycotts on Canada.
Some have been relaxed, but I think China's still on a full court press against Canada.
But Trudeau doesn't seem to be responding in kind.
It looks like we're still a part of that Asian investment, infrastructure investment bank, which is crazy that we would take Canadian money, invest it in a Chinese-led infrastructure bank.
I don't even know why we would do that in the first place.
But Trudeau and his team seems to be very China-oriented still.
So that is a strange quirk and puts Canada at odds with America.
And at the UN, not too long ago, Canada switched its voting position back to its old anti-Israel position, voting against Israel on an anti-Israel slander motion that we got away from under the Harper years and the first term under Trudeau.
So what's going on with foreign affairs?
It seems like Trudeau's going more gung-ho to the left, not less so.
Yeah, no, you're right, Ezra.
I have a, I'll just tell you a story.
I have a good friend that's an Iranian, and she's a friend of the family.
She's in her 30s, and she's got family in Iran, and she tells me the stories about how there's bombs.
And it's frightening over there.
And she goes, well, Canada is not speaking.
We need their help.
Why is Canada not there?
So you're very right on that.
I do think, Ezra, you know, I'll use the analogy.
When I was in high school, I was a very small little kid, but I had a big, big brother.
And he was three, four years ahead of me, but a big guy.
And I walked around with a lot of swagger in high school because I knew my big brother was there.
And that's Canada.
We have our big brother, United States, but I think you see a sense of a lot of countries seeing a kind of a separation between Canada and the United States, certainly between the two leaders.
We had evidence with that two-faced comment just a while ago.
So there is, when they see that, when there's a vacuum, people will take advantage of it.
And I think the vacuum is, is that Canada, you know, it doesn't want to be, certainly this government doesn't want to be seen in connection with the Trump government.
And a lot of countries are going to see an opportunity.
And it's not going to be good for Canada.
And certainly China is one of them.
I mean, you think about how China has been kicking Canada around with impunity.
And we did absolutely, you know, it's so it's, you know, it's China, Saudi Arabia.
We still don't have any relationship there.
Iran is certainly in trouble, but for some reason, this government's not saying anything about these thousands of people.
I think a few thousand were killed.
So it's not a good spot in the foreign relations.
Yeah, and India, too.
World's Law.
Yeah, India.
Trudeau's ticked them all off.
Depressing Outlook Ahead00:00:45
Well, Manny, it's a depressing look ahead.
We'll have to see how the year unfolds.
We always have to have hope.
And we got to, because we've got to carry on.
This is our country.
Great to see you again, my friend.
And we'll see you in the next one.
Great to see you, Ezra.
Thank you.
Happy to be here.
You have it, Manny Montenegrino, our good friend and political analyst, former lawyer to Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
Stay with us.
We'll have more shows throughout the Christmas season, feature interviews and a few retrospectives of some of the best of The Rebel in 2019.