Robbie Picard from Oil Sands Strong assesses Justin Trudeau’s minority re-election (157 seats) amid Conservative dominance in Alberta (33/34 ridings, 70% vote) and Saskatchewan, warning separatism may rise as a backlash against federal neglect. He highlights Husky Energy’s layoffs, SNC Lavalin’s corruption-linked stock surge, and Greta Thunberg’s divisive visit, where Indigenous leaders were exploited for climate activism while pipelines like Transmountain remain stalled. Picard urges national unity but fears Trudeau’s policies deepen Alberta’s sense of economic betrayal, risking further fragmentation unless compromise—like pipeline approval—emerges soon. [Automatically generated summary]
I'm Sheila Gunread, and you're listening to a free audio-only recording of my show, The Gun Show.
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What does Justin Trudeau's re-election mean for Alberta's oil patch?
I'm Sheila Gunn-Reed, and you're watching The Gunn Show.
Justin Trudeau's ever-corrupt liberals held on to their government, albeit with a minority in the House of Commons in Monday night's general election.
Liberals held 157 seats, 20 fewer than they won in the 2015 election.
And it was a complete and total wipeout on the prairies for Justin Trudeau's liberals.
In Alberta, 33 of 34 ridings went conservative blue with a much higher vote share than they did in the 2015 election.
70% of all votes cast in Alberta went to the Conservatives.
And one province to the east, Conservative candidates made a clean sweep of all 14 ridings in Saskatchewan.
Much to my delight, the longest-serving Liberal MP, that gun-grabbing farmer jailer, Ralph Goodale, was sent off into retirement.
So, what does all of this mean now for Alberta's oil patch?
That Canada's anti-oil prime minister has to work with a bunch of anti-oil parties like the Bloc, the Greens, and the NDP to keep the Liberal government from heading into an early election.
Joining me tonight on the show in an interview we recorded yesterday afternoon after I rushed home from Conservative HQ in Regina is Robbie Picard from Oil Sands Strong.
joining me now from his home in fort mcmurray alberta is my friend robbie picard from oil sand strong Hey, Robbie, you were optimistic when I spoke to you before the election.
I actually spoke to you when I was inside Conservative Party Headquarters HQ.
We were talking on the phone, and you were really optimistic.
I don't know, maybe it's because you're an optimistic guy.
What do you think of the election results?
And I guess, moreover, to the point, what does this mean for Pipelines?
Well, you know, so I guess what I'll say is that I'm not shocked.
I'm not as disappointed.
I'm not super thrilled with the results.
What does it mean for pipelines?
Well, I think, I don't think you're going to see a coalition right away.
I think what you're going to see is you're going to see like a bunch of hot topics get put out.
And I think the, I'm hoping you get Transmountain built.
I'm hoping that they just say, you know what, the conservatives and the liberals will get that one thing done in the bag.
The future for oil and gas after that is very, very up in the air.
People are very terrified.
I think you're going to have an election in two years.
I think all our political people are far too narcissistic to put their personal views of power aside to just make this work.
I would also say that I learned some lessons from this.
Lesson number one: conservatives can't really go after things like blackface to the same extent.
I don't think it's expected of them.
And I think the way the conservatives, if they want to succeed, they need to reach out to more people outside of their bubble.
They need to connect to other Canadians.
I think most people are fiscally conservative, but for whatever reason, the people are terrified.
Justin's wounded, but he's definitely proven that he's not one to be taken lightly or misunderstood.
I think Elizabeth May should resign as the leader of the Green Party because she's had her go and she can never get more than one or two to three seats.
So I think that's time to kind of let someone else in the Green Party have a shot at it for a little bit.
And the NDP, I mean, we've been here before, but as a person in Fort McMurray, I mean, people are people are, people in the town are a lot more glum than I am.
I mean, there's a lot of talk of separation.
A lot of people are pissed off at Newfoundland right now.
A lot of newfies I know are pissed because I don't know what happens with Alberta.
Alberta is the strangest place because again, you cannot even count how many newfies live in Fort McMurray.
There's probably, they argue that they say that Fort McMurray is the second largest city of Newfoundland type city.
So a lot of people feel really betrayed.
But, you know, this is how it went, and you have to be positive.
I'm more concerned about this giant movement against fossil fuels, against pipelines that just seems to be getting more and more power.
I'm happy now that the election is over.
I can speak freely on my page without worrying.
I also would question the timing of Greta Thunberg's visit.
Very convenient that it was right around election time, but it is what it is.
You touched on the Alberta separatist sort of sentiment that's growing.
And that parade was marching, I think, long before the election, and the writing was on the wall.
I think it's the lack of pipelines and the inability for Albertans to get their resources to oil or their resources to market, coupled with a lot of other, I think, Western cultural issues.
And I say Western not as in the Western world, but I think Western Canada.
I would suggest that we have equally as distinct a culture here in the West as they do in Quebec.
We're, you know, founded by different sorts of people.
We have a different mentality when it comes to our resources, our industry, and freedom.
We're overwhelmingly voting conservative.
Andrew Scheer saw an increase in his vote share.
He won the popular vote, but that's not because he was picking up votes in other parts of the country.
It's because in places like Lakeland and in places like Fort McMurray, people came out and drove so that it's anywhere from 70 to 80 percent.
Like in my riding, which is largely an urban riding, Garnet Jennis got nearly 80% of the vote.
People in Alberta are voting to send a message and they don't think the federal government is listening.
And I don't think Jason Kenney can contain what's happening.
The parade's already marching.
The problem is it's sort of divided and it doesn't have a leader.
And if it sort of coalesces around a leader, I think people are going to have a real tough time tutting conservatives and telling them, you know, like this is just wishful thinking.
What do you think?
Well, so when it comes to Quebec, I find Alberta's separation quite an interesting topic because when it comes to Quebec, Quebec was trying to leave because they wanted more.
Give us more, give us more.
And they got more.
They got a lot more.
Alberta's trying to leave because they're not letting us give more.
It's a weird thing.
We're leaving because we hypothetically, if we were to leave, it would be because they don't allow us to prosper.
They're basically, it's the strangest relationship.
It actually feels abusive.
It feels like you're dating someone who's just really ripping you apart and taking advantage of you.
And they don't care what happens to you.
As long as they're, you know, if the government's borrowing money and propping up their economy, they have jobs.
They don't care what's happening in Alberta.
They don't care about people losing their homes.
I was watching, like, actually, I'll give Nemshi credit.
Like, I don't know the reporter's name, but she was the one that was in that picture with Gerald Butts a little while ago.
Althea Raj.
I think it was her.
I don't know for sure, but it was on a panel and the same panel.
And she's like, well, you know, knocking on doors and people in Alberta won't be able to believe about climate change and blah, blah, blah.
And Nemshe's like, whoa, wait a minute here.
Like Albertas care about a lot of things.
So bottom line is Alberta.
I mean, we carry this country even now in our wounded state.
We carry the economy of the entire country and the rest of the country for somehow reason.
And they're quite okay with us doing that more ways than one.
And they don't want to help us.
And it's just the strangest disconnect.
And, you know, we are the second largest country in the world, landmass-wise, with one of the smallest populations.
And I think we're so spread out that, like, I mean, people feel, I mean, I'm trying to be positive.
Like, I'm trying, Will Sound Strong is doing well and I've got some plans, but it's hard when you feel such a divide and they don't quite understand what we're going through.
And frankly, I don't think they care.
Yeah, I mean, nothing was more demonstrable of this disconnect than what happened with Husky and then with SNC Lavalin today.
Husky laid off a bunch of employees.
We're recording this Tuesday afternoon.
I have somebody, a close friend who works for Husky, said it could be as many as hundreds.
They rented several conference rooms to deal with the amount of employees they were laying off in downtown Calgary.
And SNC Lavalin, their share price went up today.
And that really is just a perfect encapsulation of what's going on in Canada right now, that this election was so important for Alberta.
It meant so much because there were so many jobs that were just waiting and hanging in the balance, coupled with all the hundreds of thousands of other jobs that were gone.
And the corruption.
is what went out.
The corruption increased its share price today.
You know, though, what I will say, and it'll be a little bit of hope, sometimes these things sort of work out, you know, and I am a little bit hopeful.
I think, I mean, I'm, I think we'll get Trans Mountain and I think that'll, that'll start happening.
Um, I, you have a chance for, um, you have a chance for a new election in two years.
I don't.
I can't see it working perfectly.
But I also would say, you know, was Andrew Scheer the right guy?
You know, was he a guy that connected to people?
Did he have enough experience?
I mean, he's only 38 years.
He's a year, maybe a year younger than me.
I mean, I'll say he's pretty scandal-free.
I mean, I mean, he has dual citizenship and he was an aggressive insurance broker.
But, you know, I mean, was he the right guy?
Or, you know what?
Maybe like, I mean, how many times do you get a majority?
Like, this is very rare.
Stephen Harper had two majorities.
It's very rare this happens where you unseat an incumbent.
So, I mean, if you look at it from a different lens, I think we're super sensitive because the stakes have never been higher.
Yeah.
Alberta's livelihood has never been like a question like this.
John Kretcher wasn't trying to ruin Alberta.
No.
You know, you know, so it wasn't like he had all these people around him.
John Kretchan's, I gotta make it work.
I mean, he might have been doing other things.
I mean, I think Albertans, I mean, we're in a, it's the strangest climate.
Like here, for instance, too, it's like there's David Jaguera, I think, got the highest vote in the country, you know, and there's still people that like, that are, I guess, from liberals that just don't, they don't get it, what's happening, why people are upset.
Alberta's a bit of a hostage right now.
And we have no say.
I mean, it doesn't matter what Alberta does.
We have zero say for our future.
And that's, I think that's what hurts people right now.
Yeah, and I think, too, if we look at it through the lens of the National Conservative Party, they don't want us to leave either.
And I think it's because they will be, if we leave, perpetually damned to be in the opposition.
Because if Alberta goes, we take with us 34, 33, 34 pretty reliably conservative voting ridings with us.
Alberta's Hostage Situation00:13:57
And so that means they will never, ever, ever be able to topple a liberal government.
So I think a lot of the criticism of a separatist movement, you're going to see it coming from the official conservative types.
Now we've done enough lamenting of the predictable bad news that came this way this week.
I wanted to talk to you about, you touched on it earlier, Greta Tunberg.
She came to Canada.
She came to Edmonton.
My friend Kian Bexte located her and sort of killed her with kindness until he could press her with some tough questions.
But I was down there at the climate march and I saw some crazy things.
I was there by myself and I tried to approach it a little bit like wildlife photography.
You know, you just wanted to see these creatures in their natural environment.
I didn't want to really interact with them because I was by myself and I've, you know, I've had some things go sideways when I've interacted with the far left and the radical left.
But what really stuck out for me and I think stuck out for a lot of our viewers, besides the sheer volume of the crowd that was grossly overestimated by the mainstream media, they first reported 10,000.
EPS said 4,000, which is roughly about the March for Life every year.
The under-reported March for Life.
But it was the use of Aboriginal people and First Nations people and Canada's Indigenous people as props for this march.
And I caught it on camera.
I heard it first and it was almost too crazy.
It felt too crazy in my ear to be real.
You know, people are out there that think that way.
I mean, you've seen, I've seen them on the internet say these things, but I've never actually seen it for myself.
They were saying Indigenous people to the front, white people to the back of the march.
And it was, I think, 50% racism and 50% we're just going to use Indigenous people as props.
So I have never been more conflicted on how I feel about something not necessarily conflicted in the sense that I'm just conflicted with myself.
Okay.
So we're in a very sad state.
It shouldn't matter what skin color you have, that you need to stand in the back.
And it's sort of like a reverse racism.
And it's definitely for pedical purposes because I promise you the people that they don't care about Indigenous issues.
They're just using them.
Yeah.
When Greta came to Fort McMurray, I chose to stand down.
And this is something that I don't do.
And I probably will regret it.
Yeah, I will probably regret it.
And trust me, my blood was boiling where I was conflicted.
And I'm conflicted for many reasons.
I'm conflicted as a Métis guy in town, a business owner, a huge proponent of Fort McMurray businesses, and conflicted because when Jane Fonda came to Fort McMurray, it wasn't fun because she got a little piece of her own medicine in a parking lot on a minus 40 day in February.
And I'm proud of that.
I'm proud I got to give it to her.
I'm proud I got to stand up to her.
And that didn't go perfectly.
Now, Greta, I will say that, you know, she got some blowback, but and I'm glad there was some.
And I don't think the trip was perfect for her.
But you're dealing with this strange situation.
And I'm trying to find a way to coin something so I can take it head on.
You cannot say, well, she's a 16-year-old girl.
You can't challenge her or question her.
But all of a sudden, she's in front of the world speaking at the United Nations.
They're literally using her as a human shield.
And because if you try to say something to her, well, she is a 16-year-old girl, but yet when she, they're talking about changing the voting age to 16, which is it?
Is 16 mean you're an adult and you can take heat?
Or are you a tiny little kid?
And they're playing this really well.
And that doesn't scare me.
I'm not, I'm not scared to confront her.
It's just that moment in time when she was here, I mean, I could have handled it many ways.
I could have asked to have a coffee with her or whatever, some vegan thing.
I could have done a bunch of things, but I just chose to let her be and not tweet about it or confront her.
Now, when that BBC documentary comes out, I'll probably regret my decision.
But she's being toured with a BBC documentary crew, and they're coming, they're filming this and they're doing this.
And then when she leaves, when she's safely back wherever she lives, you know, they're going to come at us with quite a bit of anger and they're going to be saying shut the oil sounds down again.
And we've worked really hard to get past that point.
So my page, I've been pretty strong with her.
And my engagement right now, not that I want to brag or anything, but for a while there, I was number one in Canada beating Ontario Proud for engagement.
Not that I want to brag, but I like, I mean, I have nothing else Ontario Prouder pages.
I'm just clear.
I'm just being a little bit of fun there.
And it's a hot topic.
And people need to provide a voice for this.
Like using a child as a shield is wrong.
And if we don't figure out how our side is going to deal with this, there's going to be other child shields or children used as props.
And they're going to come and try to shut us down.
And we're not going to know how to respond to it.
We have the strangest case of Stockholm syndrome.
I hope Jason Kenney, our premier, has a way to deal with it.
You know what I mean?
Yeah, I was actually surprised.
I thought maybe we would hear more from his war room when she was here.
But it seemed as though the war room was radio silent and maybe that was by design.
Maybe they just didn't want to be perceived to be fighting with this waifish, malnourished looking little girl.
But, you know, when I was in Edmonton, there's a frenzy about Greta.
She's a celebrity and she really is untouchable.
And it's, I mean, that's why they chose a child for this is because she is untouchable.
Now, when she went to Fort McMurray, she was there with Chief Alan Adam, who's tides funded.
We know that.
But the Aboriginal businessman had to put out a statement saying that basically the Aboriginal and Indigenous people they're using as props, including Alan Adam, don't speak for the Indigenous business owners in Fort McMurray.
No, they don't.
And I promise you, there's going to be a lot of private conversations happening right now because these are the same people that want this pipeline.
Alan Adam himself did a big CBC, we want pipelines, we want pipelines.
Well, pick a side.
Just pick a side.
If you're against oil, stop producing it.
Don't take part of it.
Don't be part of Aspen.
Just back off.
Or say, you know what, Greta?
Thanks.
Thanks for the visit.
Here's a little ride in the canoe, but you're a kid and you don't speak on behalf of us or our.
I mean, it's really easy for Greta.
She's a multi, she's friends with multi-millionaires.
She's a kid.
She's got tons and tons of money and celebrity.
Honor Source Nakers lent her a Tesla.
And it's like, it's not the same for Aboriginal kids, you know, in reserves in Canada because the oil industry is going to be, you know, less because of layoffs and there's not going to be jobs and opportunities for them.
Like, I mean, I, oh yeah, yeah, this is an interesting one.
This is one where I like, I'm not sure, you know, five years from now if it'll be on my, you know, should I have done something?
That's the only thing I'm proud to say.
Most times in my life where I felt like I should do something, I have.
So, this will be one where I'm not sure.
Dean, here's what I think.
I think Greta came to Fort McMurray.
She will do whatever she's going to do in her little documentary.
And then, by the time the shine wears off, this tiny little bauble of a girl, no one's going to care about her anymore, including all the people who are using her to promote their agenda right now and who are paying her parents to promote their agenda.
I think by the time she's 18, she's going to be pretty well washed up in the world of activism because there will be some other cherub-faced little girl or little boy coming along.
Maybe even there'll be a child of color.
So, that should check off even more social justice boxes, and we won't hear much from Greta anymore.
So, I don't think you should beat yourself up too badly about what you did or didn't do in Fort McMurray.
Now, Greta's off to the Vancouver area next, allegedly in the Tesla.
She's going to visit Burnaby Mountain.
She's going to have a tough time when she's on Burnaby Mountain visiting the tank farm because it is so well hidden and in the middle of a residential area and so well kept and well cared for that she's going to have a hard time finding things to be critical of.
But I'm sure the perpetual Indigenous activists there will come out and complain like they did when they built their disgusting little encampment on Camp Cloud.
Well, I was just going to say maybe that would be a good opportunity for her to get a place to stay.
I wonder how long she would sleep at Camp Cloud.
I was at Camp Cloud once.
I was too.
I was there when they tore it down.
Yes, Camp Cloud.
That was, I wonder if she'd support them.
Speaking of Camp Cloud, I think Canuis Manuel was in jail for a little bit there.
So they are RCMP arrested her and she broke her wrist apparently.
And so I don't know if she's out of jail now on bail or whatever.
Oh, well, it's just nice to see the law enforcement picking up these law-breaking activists.
Now, Robbie, I think with the results of the election, we need you and your activism and your fighting spirit now more than ever.
And you don't really have any big backers.
You do most of your activism out of pocket.
Can you please let people know how they can find all the work you're doing, support you?
Yeah, go to oldsanestrago.com.
Please be patient with me.
I have to order more shirts.
They're on their way.
We are behind our t-shirt orders right now.
You will get your shirts.
We are revamping our website and we are going on the road.
I plan on spending a lot of time in small town Ontario in the near future where I have a lot of family in Sudbury in a place called Levac.
And I'm going to be doing a new show called Old Santa Strong Boots on the Ground, where I really want to connect some dots between us here in Alberta and the small towns in Ontario because we have similar stories and we need to build this nation.
We need to try to find it.
But my, I mean, at this moment in time, I'm just going to go back.
I'm going to regroup.
I don't see this as a total defeat, Sheila.
I see this as just a postponement of the inevitable, which who knows what's going to happen.
But we, as a country, if we don't figure out how we are a country soon, we're not going to be a country for another hundred years.
Like it's, we got to figure this out.
We have to, every part of this country needs to be okay.
And Alberta has not been okay for about five, six years now.
And that's not right.
And Albertans did, they say, well, you can vote for change.
You can vote people out.
Well, Alberta is, they can't, with the exception of Strathcona, Alberta really made a statement.
And even Strathcona, you can argue is a statement.
So, I mean, you know, and well, even the fact they went NDP federally, I mean, which, you know, I don't know how that could happen in Alberta, but it's a sign that, you know, Justin Trudeau spent a lot of time in Calgary.
I've met him three times in Fort McMurray.
He has not connected with people here.
Why?
And shouldn't it be his job to connect with people?
You know, anyway.
Well, I think when he goes to places like Quebec and he campaigns on fighting against those Western premiers, it's pretty hard for him to connect with Albertans on the ground when he goes to an entirely other province and then paints us as the enemy.
I've never seen a prime minister with this type of division, the divisiveness before.
I haven't.
And I mean, his, you know, Jean-Cretchin had class.
It remains to be seen if Justin will develop any.
Oh, I think we've given him a lot of opportunities to do it and it just hasn't manifested.
See Everybody Next Week00:00:51
Robbie, I want to thank you for your time.
I know that you jumped on here with me with some pretty short notice.
And I want to thank you for your analysis.
And we'll check back in very soon.
Thank you for having me.
With regard to the rise of Western separatism and the very real desire for Alberta to have more sovereignty, whether that is within confederation or without, I think we're in for a hell of a ride because the most dangerous time to be in an abusive relationship is when one of the parties is trying to leave it.
Well, everybody, thanks so much for tuning into the show tonight.
I'll see everybody back here in the same time in the same place next week.