A 2019 Angus Reid poll reveals 63% of Canadians despise Justin Trudeau, with Liberals trailing Conservatives by 8% after SNC Lavalin fallout—down from a 25-point deficit in April. Trudeau’s core voters (64%) remain loyal, but 18% of Liberal defectors lean Green, especially in BC’s Vancouver Island (19% Greens vs. 19% Liberals). Bernier’s People’s Party sits at 4% nationally but 17% in Quebec, siphoning off ex-Conservative support. Trudeau’s unpopularity stems from SNC Lavalin, feminist controversies, and Grassy Narrows protests, while Scheer faces media smears despite moderate policies—suggesting voters may reluctantly re-elect Trudeau in a minority, despite widespread disdain. [Automatically generated summary]
Today I take you through the latest Angus Reid poll.
Very interesting.
There's lots of interesting numbers.
I'll just share with you very quickly my favorite one.
Did you know that 63% of Canadians dislike Justin Trudeau?
I bet you probably did know that.
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All right, here's today's podcast.
You're listening to a Rebel Media Podcast.
Tonight, a new poll by Angus Reed says Canadians don't dislike Justin Trudeau.
They hate him.
It's August 30th, and this is the Yes Relevant Show.
Why should others go to jail when you're a biggest carbon consumer I know?
There's 8,500 customers here, and you won't give them an answer.
The only thing I have to say to the government about why I publish it is because it's my bloody right to do so.
A new poll out by Angus Reid.
Here's his headline.
Ahead of September writ drop, liberals claw back into close race with conservatives.
That's true enough, and I suppose that's the main thing anyone wants to know in a poll.
The Conservatives are at 36%.
The Liberals are at 32%.
The NDP are pretty far back at 14%.
And the Greens are on track to do their best ever in Canada.
9%.
I mean, it sounds like losing, but actually, it's really concentrated in a few places.
So I hate to say they'll probably punch through into first place in a few ridings if they keep this up.
Remember, they recently won a by-election in Nanaimo on Vancouver Island with an extremely radical candidate.
So that's real.
It bothers me a bit, to be honest, that this poll doesn't mention Maxine Bernier's People's Party by name.
They have the block Hippocrati there at 4%.
It's actually 17% in Quebec is what they mean.
And then they have other, well, that's Bernier, right?
Why not just say it?
Here's the second part of the news, I guess, the trend.
In fact, that trend shows that it hasn't been this close since the SNC Lavaland fiasco dropped in February.
Just last month, the lead was 8%.
In April, if you can see it, the Liberals were behind by 25%, which is shocking.
The Conservatives were at 38%, so that's a 13-point gap.
The NDP back then were fairly strong at 18%.
Well, the NDP, back down to 14%.
Liberals are recovering.
The gap is narrowing.
It's a trend.
They think they can just get away with this SNC Lavalan thing, just brazen it out.
Do you think they're right?
Here's another chart.
This one asks an interesting question.
Who did you vote for in 2015, and would you vote for them again?
So 85% of Conservatives who voted for Harper say they will vote for Scheer.
I'm not surprised, but look at the Liberals.
Only 64% who voted for Trudeau last time are going to vote for him this time, they say.
They're disaffected.
The NDP number is just shocking, of course, but that's just Jagneet Singh's awful political instincts and the fact that Trudeau himself has moved to the left and the Greens.
The left is a crowded place in Canadian politics.
Look at this.
The 36% who are leaving the Liberals, they're split pretty evenly between going to the Conservatives and going to the NDP.
And a big chunk go to the Greens.
I'd like to see where that 15% who left the Conservatives are going to.
I bet they're mainly going to Bernier, but we don't have that data on the Angus Reid website.
The regional breakdown is what you'd expect.
Westerners hate Trudeau, and I mean hate.
Look at the prairies in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
You'd have to ask five people.
Would you vote for Trudeau?
Would you vote for Trudeau?
How about you?
Or you?
That's just four people.
You'd have to ask another person, a fifth person, would you vote for Trudeau?
Because his support in the prairies is only 19%, 20% in Alberta.
BC shows they've fallen out of love with Trudeau hard.
I think it's Jody Wilson-Raybold's revenge.
Naturally, the older you are, the more likely you are to vote for conservatives.
That's life.
You have property, you have family, kids, and grandkids.
You're worried about the future.
You're worried about crime.
You have something to lose now.
You pay taxes.
You're probably not a socialist anymore.
You're probably not impressed by how sexy Trudeau's hair and his socks are.
And you're probably worried about marijuana and your kids getting running with the wrong crowd.
You're not a kid trying to score some marijuana anymore.
I noticed that baby boomer women are the most pro-Trudeau people.
Maybe that's just reminiscences about how sexy Pierre Trudeau was.
I don't know.
Maybe it's just a trip down memory lane, Trudeau, like watching old Woodstock wheels.
I have no idea.
Young women are the big Green Party backers, no surprise.
I bet there's a lot of vegetarians in that category too.
You know, white girls with dreadlocks kind of thing.
But look at one more thing there.
Look at young men aged 18 to 34.
They're voting for other.
12% of them are.
No, they're not voting for other.
That's absolutely Maxime Bernier's base.
And again, I complain that Angus Reed doesn't break his party out.
Those are young men.
Sick of being told about male privilege and white privilege and heterosexual privilege.
Sick of being told to shut up about insanity like trans extremism or insanity like open borders, sick of being told not to use plastic straws by people who are flying private jets, sick of being hectored and lectured and banned.
That's young populist men.
They should be conservatives, but Andrew Scheer is too afraid to stand up for their issues like freedom of speech.
So they're for Bernier.
But let me show you the stat I find most interesting, and I'll talk with Lauren Gunter about this in a moment.
Look at the favorable, unfavorable split for each leader personally.
And as you can see, this is the only category where Maxime Bernier is mentioned by name, maybe because he's doing so poorly in this stat.
Now, the first thing to see is that none of the leaders has a net positive rating, as in the number of people who like them minus the number of people who dislike them.
Elizabeth May is netted out, she breaks even at zero.
But all the other leaders are actively disliked.
Andrew Scheer and Jagmeet Singh, just over half the people dislike them.
Scheer has 38% favorable ratings, which is not surprising since 36% of people say they'll actually vote for him.
And look at that, though.
63% of people don't like Justin Trudeau.
63%.
That is stunning.
You wouldn't know it if you're the only source of news with the CBC.
They love him.
I mean, they love him as in go on a date with him, love him.
Most Canadians don't want to go on a date with Justin Trudeau.
So look at Trudeau.
31% favorable, 63% unfavorable.
People mock Trump for being at around 50% in the polls.
Despite massive media hate, Trudeau is at 31% in the poll, despite massive media love.
Imagine if either leader just had straight normal media coverage.
Trump would be at 60.
Trudeau would be at 20.
I don't know.
So what does this all mean?
It means it's a close election in October, and we haven't even seen the left-wing super PAC campaigns yet.
But it also means there is a lot of dissatisfaction with all the choices of the status quo, with the entire establishment.
People don't trust politicians, and they don't trust the media.
Now, I knew that, and you knew that because we're outsiders, and we talk about this all the time.
But those same extreme disapproval numbers, well, you could apply them to everything in this country.
Cell phone companies, cable companies, banks, hospital waiting lines, crummy schools, the media, of course.
Leftist pop stars, professors of gender studies, global warming activists who fly by jet.
I look at those disapproval numbers and I say, our entire country is not being well served by any of its leaders.
Do you agree?
Stay with us for more.
Hey, welcome back everybody.
And joining us now to talk more about these poll numbers is my friend Lauren Gunter.
Lauren, just before we turn the camera on, you told me that Angus Reid actually used to be a liberal.
I didn't even know that.
Oh, yeah, absolutely.
I used to be too.
And back in 1983 and 84, when I worked in Ottawa as chief of staff to a cabinet minister, Angus Reid was the Liberal Party's pollster, and he was Pierre Trudeau's favorite pollster.
He was ahead of his time.
He used techniques that were only just being developed in polling.
He wasn't, you know, just phone and asked basic questions.
He did counter questions.
He tried to find out whether or not people were aware of what they thought as opposed to just saying what they think.
Because lots of times people will tell pollsters what they think pollsters want to hear.
And Angus Reed was trying to develop techniques for weeding that out and getting at what people really thought.
And so he was a very, very popular pollster.
He was the Liberal Party's pollster during campaigns and in between campaigns.
And so it's interesting, too, now that he is, as you say, he's based outside Ottawa.
And he doesn't seem to get caught up in the partisan games.
I think a lot of pollsters like the idea that they'll be kind of soft towards one party that might get in power, hoping that they get a whole bunch of government contracts to do polling for the Ministry of Infrastructure and the Foreign Affairs Department, you know, so that they get to do attitudes about new programs and things that pay a lot of money.
Whereas political, a lot of times, voter intention polling doesn't get as much money.
They do those as lost leaders in some cases, hoping they're going to get a big government contract.
That's a good point.
You know, and when you say Angus Reid was Pierre Trudeau's favorite pollster, that does not necessarily mean at all that he was the most partisan.
In fact, it probably means the opposite.
It probably means he was the most accurate.
I mean, I suppose some politicians like to be lied to, but I would imagine that if you're as successful as Pierre Trudeau was, it's because you wanted to occasionally hear the bad news, the real news.
And a valuable pollster would seem to me as someone who could get you the truth and not just tell you what you hope the truth was.
Yeah, I guess so.
But Angus, you know, he's been through a couple of iterations since he was Angus Reed pollster back in the 80s.
And then there was Ipsus Reed, and then Ipsus and Reed had a falling out.
And eventually, after the non-competition agreements and things were done, Angus started up again.
And I think Angus is still a very solid pollster.
Yeah.
Okay, well, we're talking about him.
And you would think that the numbers would speak for themselves.
But of course, in this age, everything is a little bit partisan.
Everyone has their angle.
Let's go into the polling numbers.
Something I mentioned earlier, which is just striking to me, is the poll is broken down by region.
And obviously, the sample size in Saskatchewan and Manitoba is not huge.
It's only 190 people.
But still, if you ask 190 randomly chosen prairie folks, you're going to get, you know, that's how accurate it is.
He says the Liberal Party is at 19% in the prairies.
That's even lower than in Alberta.
19%.
I remember a recent Angus Reed poll.
It was in the low 20s.
And I was shocked by that.
And I saw that the male voters, like men in Saskatchewan, it was like only 20%.
And I was shocked by that.
This isn't broken out by gender, but if it's 19% for both men and women, I bet the number of men in Saskatchewan who vote for Trudeau is like 15%.
This doesn't surprise me in the least.
Even ECOS came out with a poll last week that showed the conservatives ahead in Alberta by 50 points.
That doesn't mean they had 50% support.
They had closer to 70% support.
They were 50 points ahead of the next party, and the number two party was the Liberals.
So on the prairies, the Liberals and Trudeau have been written off.
I saw numbers like this back in the early 80s, after the National Energy Program.
You saw Pierre Trudeau's numbers fall to below 20% in the prairie provinces, also in BC in many cases, in the interior in particular.
Certainly, I can't speak to the Interior BC right now.
I know Trudeau's not popular there, but he is as unpopular as his father was after the national energy program in the three prairie provinces.
And they're now polling below 20%, which is considered below their natural floor.
So even liberals aren't happy with the liberals on the prairies.
And that's great.
That's wonderful.
That means that probably as happened with the liberals after Pierre Trudeau, there will not be another liberal elected in Alberta for two generations.
But unfortunately, the numbers are not that bad for the liberals in the lower mainland of BC, in the greater Toronto area, in the golden horseshoe around Toronto, and in Quebec.
And so, you know, we could end up with the heavily populated areas of the country foisting another Trudeau government on the rest of us.
Yeah.
I want to talk about one more region, and that is British Columbia.
According to this poll, the Liberals were at 29%, which I'm surprised a little bit to see that the Conservatives are at 35% because the Conservatives lost a lot of seats to the Liberals in the last election.
Part of that was because of the focus of those U.S.-funded environmental lobby groups who zeroed in on swing ridings and said, all right, let's get everyone voting strategically.
And in most cases, it was the Liberals.
So to see the Liberals down under 30%, the Conservatives at 35, but it's so obvious what's going on as you can see the Green Party is at 19%.
And by the way, I was just in the Naimo about two weeks ago.
Greens at Liberals' Expense00:04:22
The Green Party poked through there in a by-election.
A lot of people say, oh, it's a by-election.
It's a fluke.
Yeah, well, when you've got 19% support for the Green Party, and that's probably double that on Vancouver Island, you're going to see some MPs poke through.
Yeah, and I think the interesting thing about the BC numbers is that the Greens, everywhere else in the country, all other provinces and territories, where the Greens come up, it's at the expense of the NDP.
In BC, though, when the Greens go up, it seems to be at the expense of the Liberals.
So the Liberals were supposed to be the Green Party that was also pro-development.
And somehow they have blown that image with many BC voters, particularly on the island and to some extent in what you'd call the outer lower mainland, the Chilliwack, Abbotsford, East Surrey areas.
And those are populated areas that have lots of seats.
So That's an interesting feature of that Angus Reed poll is that everywhere else in the country, the Greens succeed at the NDP's expense, but in the lower mainland of BC, which is really going to be tight in this election, it may very well decide who wins and who loses.
The Greens seem to come up at the expense of the Liberals, not the NDP.
Well, one of my theories, and I don't think this is a unique observation by me, is that it is the Jodi Wilson-Raybold effect.
There is someone who was supposed to be the absolute epitome, the personification of the liberal brand, a woman, aboriginal, smart, lawyer, environmentalist, solid.
I mean, just I mean, in my mind, she was far left, but let's put that aside for a moment, just the persona.
And really, the political story of the year is Bob Fife and Steve Chase of the Globe and Mail and the SNC Lavaland.
And her dignity throughout that, by the way.
And again, whenever I praise Jodie Wilson-Raybold, some people say, oh, she was far left.
I know that.
But I'm just saying her.
She was a terrible justice minister until the SNC Labelant thing came along.
And in an irony, or maybe irony is the wrong word, the most important part about being a justice minister is that you actually support justice and that you support the rule of law and then you stop the meddling.
And on the one thing that really mattered, I think she showed more principle than any politician in 50 years.
She did.
Absolutely.
And I think the dignity with which she carried herself, and she didn't look like she was a grasping opportunist.
In fact, she was too silent for too long in my mind.
And I think the respect for her in BC is so high, and everyone who likes her, it's a net sum, zero-sum business.
That respect has come at the expense of their disrespect for Trudeau.
Because they know she was a woman wronged and wronged by whom?
By Trudeau.
I think that shows in the Angus Reid numbers too, in which Trudeau is the most disliked of all of the five major party leaders, followed closely by Maxine Bernier.
But Trudeau, 63% of people polled by Angus Reed disliked Trudeau.
That is a far cry from 2015 when his approval rating kept going up and up and up and up through the campaign.
And so when you get a lot of times, it's not necessary to look at how popular a party or a politician is, but how unpopular, because that will tell you what kind of a ceiling they have for taking votes during a campaign.
And it would look as though Justin Trudeau doesn't have a lot of room to grow during the campaign.
People are starting to write him off.
And once you're written off by voters, it's very unusual for a politician to have a renaissance, to come back and win again.
So I still am predicting the liberals will sneak this election out, probably in a minority.
But boy, there are sure a lot of encouraging signs that maybe enough voters will have had enough of this guy that they'll vote against the Liberal Party.
Encouraging Signs of Voter Fatigue00:02:59
You know, it's a good point you make.
You're negative, the people who dislike you, that's the part of the lake you can't fish in, so to speak, for votes.
And if Trudeau's disapproval number is 63%, I'm looking at it right here on my computer.
The number who favor him is 31%.
It's no surprise that the number who say they would vote liberal is almost identical, 32%.
You know, I don't see it broken out in this particular press release I'm looking at here, but in an earlier Angus Reed poll, he split up disapproval into slightly disapprove and greatly disapprove.
So what was interesting about those stats, and I'll see if we can dig up an image of that.
If you dislike Justin Trudeau, you dislike him a lot.
So you like him, you like him, you like him, and then when that ends, it's a disillusionment.
And I think the perfect manifestation of that is his old platonic boyfriend.
I'm joking around, obviously they weren't boyfriend, Paul Wells, who for years felt like Justin Trudeau, cheerleader and Trudeau whisperer.
He was his press agent at McLean.
Yeah, and here's my favorite picture of him posing for a selfie with Trudeau.
They're on a first name basis.
And then Paul Wells, when you fall out of love, it hurts so bad.
You don't just fall out of love a little bit.
You hit the ground hard.
And look at this cover in McLean's The Imposter.
And that's, go ahead.
And it's because, I think it's because Wells, like a lot of Trudeau acolytes from 2015, realized that they had allowed themselves to be duped, that they had wanted so much to like this guy that they overestimated how wonderful he was.
And then rather than say, oh, I was dumb, they're saying, oh, yeah, this guy's phony.
He's an imposter.
It's his fault that we now are no longer able to like him.
And I think that's happened with a lot of voters.
I mean, I think it started with maybe with a few things in the early years, but particularly with the February 2018 trip to India.
He looked so farcical at that, that people started to wonder what in heaven's name they'd gotten themselves into.
And I think I've used this analogy with you before.
I mean, in 2015, a lot of voters were prepared to give up the bland, solid accountant that they had been with for 10 years in favor of the sharp-looking pool boy who offered a little bit of zing in the light.
And now they've awakened to the fact that the pool boy's routing through their purse looking for money for weed.
Yeah.
That's a perfect analogy.
Oh my God.
You know what?
Please forgive me.
I'm going to steal that analogy, Lauren.
I'll give you credit, but it's too good.
I got to use that.
Regina's Ruthless Rise00:06:15
It's exactly what he is.
Let me say one more thing about the imposter.
It's not just a general imposter that he was a sweet talking hustler like the pool boy you described.
But he was a huckster.
He said he was a feminist, and we've learned so much about how he actually treats women.
He said he was for Aboriginal reconciliation, but holy moly, look at him treat the grassy narrows protesters.
He said he was for democratic reform and cleaner government, but whoa, this SNC.
So he actually, it's not just that he's a pickup artist.
Whenever I hear, he slips into a voice and he talks like this, and Canadians can do better.
Like he puts on this voice, and I just can't stop thinking about him as one of those, you know, using your pool boy metaphor, a pickup artist who teaches other guys how to manipulate women to go out with them.
I get this pickup artist vibe from him.
It's not just a style.
It's a substance too.
The guy who said he would have the most clean and transparent and accountable government did none of that.
The guy who railed against Harper's partisanship, look at how he stacked the Senate.
So it's amazing, but let me ask you the big question.
That disapproval number is staggeringly large, 63%.
You would almost think that would disqualify a guy from winning mathematically.
But I thought I heard you say you think he's going to squeak it out.
I do.
I do because I think in the areas of the country that have the largest numbers of votes, at the very last, too many voters are going to say that Andrew Scheer just doesn't impress me.
I think the conservatives have a great new slogan.
Paraphrasing it, it's time you got your share, basically.
I think that's great.
I think that the message in the ads is clearly laid out and it's smart.
I love the ad that he had where he walked through his old neighborhood in Regina and he said, I know what it's like for people who live in a neighborhood like this because this is the house I grew up in.
And it's a row house in a low-income area of Regina.
That's great.
But when you look at him, I don't know, would you hire him to do the landscaping at your house or would you like him to be the prime minister?
He just lacks something that I think an awful lot of people increasingly voters don't pay attention to elections until the last 72 hours.
And I think when they tune in 72 hours before October 21st, they're going to just say, yeah, I don't like the Trudeau guy, but that sheer guy is not my alternative.
So they'll cast a grudging vote for Trudeau.
Yeah.
Oh, and we have not even begun to see not only the liberal war machine, but the 100 third-party super PAC groups.
We saw a little bit of Maxime Bernier's super PAC action the other day that got a little bit of media buzz, good for him for stealing some headlines in August.
But whoa, in October, you are going to have such deep sheer bashing.
It'll be, well, I think it'll be the dirtiest election in Canadian history.
I think you're absolutely right.
And I saw the Unifor ads yesterday during U.S. Open Tennis I was watching.
And it's a guy, a working class guy who goes to a vending machine and gets ripped off.
And, you know, the message is, but if we elect Shear, that's what's going to happen to working class Canadians.
It's just the level of vitriol towards Scheer is staggering.
I could kind of understand it towards Harper because Harper was a tough guy.
Like he was an intellectual and he was ruthless with opponents.
Sheer's not a ruthless guy.
Like he's a nice enough guy.
And yet the animus towards him is unbelievable.
It's worse than it was towards Harper.
From whom, can I ask you?
Well, I think just people you hear in our business, people from the interest groups that are liberal leaning.
I remember, and then sometimes just like our kids have fairly liberal friends, and you hear them say things about Andrew Scheer, you know, are preposterous.
But they're picking that up, obviously, from social media.
I remember after the last election, talking to one of our son's friends in Vancouver, and the kids said, oh, thank God we were able to get rid of that dictator, Harper.
And he said, dictator, if he's a dictator, how did he hold a free election?
Give your head a shake.
And he said, oh, that's not what I mean.
Yeah, it's exactly what you mean.
But you hear things worse than that about Scheer will chain all women back in the kitchen and he will put all LGBTQ people back in the closet.
And when has he ever said anything?
Even if you look back to 2005, which is what the liberals have been doing with their little apparatchiks in the media the last two weeks, you look back to 2005 in the debate on same-sex marriage.
Scheer said things that would indicate he was against same-sex marriage.
So did a lot of liberals.
If you look at Ralph Goodale, who holds the neighboring riding in Regina, he said very much the same thing that Andrew Scheer did.
It wasn't outrageous at the time what he said.
It's not outrageous now.
It may be wrong.
We can argue whether it's right or wrong.
But they're talking about it now like, you know, he said, well, I think that all LGBTQ people should be sent off to an island and we should never have to see them again.
Nobody's ever said anything like that.
And yet, the animus towards Shear is tangible.
Yeah.
Wow, that's interesting.
If I had to guess, if the election were held today, I would say a conservative minority, but it's not held today.
It's going to be held after 50 days of absolute media pounding.
And I don't know if Scheer's got it in him to fight back.
I predict, and I'm sorry to say it, I predict a Trudeau minority if I had to make a prediction today about what will happen October 21st.
After Labor Day Media Saturation00:00:55
Lauren, great to see you again.
Thanks for spending time with us.
All right, there you have it.
Our friend Lauren Gunter, senior columnist with the Edmonton Sun.
Stay with us.
That's more ahead on The Rebel.
Well, that's the show for today.
What do you think about the upcoming election?
It's going to be here so fast.
I mean, you can feel it sort of gurgling away right now, but after Labor Day, holy moly, expect absolute saturation media.
The Rebel will be playing and be playing a very important role in that election, I believe.
All right, well, that's the show for today.
I hope you have a great weekend, great long weekend.
We'll have a special show for you on Monday, I believe.
It's scheduled for.
So we'll be on on Monday, even though most folks will be off.
Until then, on behalf of all of us here at Rebel World Headquarters to you at home, good night.