It's the award-winning thrill-pact, ever-exciting, increasingly popular, and still growing by leaps and bounds, Rush Limbaugh program here at the Excellence in Broadcasting Network.
A telephone number, if you want to be on the program, is 800-282-2882.
The email address, LRushbo at EIBNet, LRushbo at EIBnet.us is the new email address.
Well, it's about a month old now, but it's still relatively new.
Folks, I have to tell you, I'm sitting here.
I'm feeling odd because normally whenever we get together, I am certain about most everything I tell you.
When I have an opinion on something, it's an opinion, and it's rock solid, and I firmly believe it 100%.
And I'm not used to not knowing.
I'm not used to not being confident of what I think.
I don't know how this is going to turn out.
I don't know what to make of these polls.
I'm factoring everything you're factoring.
I look at everything you look at, and I don't know.
For example, you've seen the stories today and through the weekend that the Democrats think they have this already wrapped up, that Trump is already toast.
And so what they're doing, they're going into red states.
They're going into Texas, the Hillary campaign.
They're going to Texas.
They're going to Utah.
They're going to Georgia.
They're going all these places that they never have a prayer.
And they're trying to win back the Senate.
And they're trying to win back the House.
They've already closed Trump out.
Trump is history.
He doesn't know it.
His supporters don't know it, but they do.
The Democrats, it's over as far as the media and the Democrats are concerned.
And Hillary today, when asked about Trump, you know, I don't even think about Donald Trump anymore.
You know, I don't even react to Donald Trump anymore.
That's her line.
I don't care what network you watch, maybe with Fox exempted, although certain places at Fox, you'll find the same sentiment.
It's over.
And they all cite these polls.
They all cite the polls that show Hillary up 10 to 12 points.
And even take the low point at 10.
I just saw somebody on CNN, a conservative Republican, say, at 10 points with two weeks, it's over.
There's no way you can reverse that.
It's history.
So they all believe the polls.
In fact, their belief in the polls is biblical.
I think these people have a greater confidence and faith in the polls than they do in the Bible.
So it's over.
And furthermore, to show you just how over it is, the Democrats are actually now in red states where Trump may win those states, but they're in there and they're working down ballot.
And they're going to win back the House.
They're going to win back the Senate.
And Chuck U. Schumer is going to end up the majority leader in the Senate.
And it's going to, and you, Republicans, you are toast.
Do you understand?
It's toast.
And you Republicans had better start doing your post-mortems right now.
And you had better start figuring out why this happened.
Because you lost this because you saw to it that Trump was nominated.
And if you weren't for Trump, you better find out who made it possible for Trump to be nominated.
And you better do something about those people.
Well, that just happens to be me, in their opinion.
I still haven't endorsed anybody in this camp.
Are you aware of that?
I still haven't.
I may be the last person in the country that hasn't endorsed somebody.
No, at this point, it's meaningless.
The Republicans have already conceded too.
They're already starting to form their circular firing squad and starting to aim their weapons at the people they think are responsible for this.
And of course, it's not them.
The Republicans.
No, no, no, no.
They have nothing to do with it.
Now, see, all this talk that I'm engaging in right now, it assumes that Trump's toast.
It assumes that Trump's history.
It assumes that Trump doesn't have a prayer.
It's based on the fact that Trump never did have a prayer.
But then there's other data.
Trump rallies are out of sight.
They have more excitement than the combined excitement of Hillary Clinton all year.
They have more attendance.
No matter where they are, people drive hundreds of miles to attend them.
They are happy.
They are upbeat.
They are optimistic wherever Trump goes.
Blue state, red state, doesn't matter where he goes.
By the same token, wherever Hillary goes or any of her surrogates, be it Tim Kaine or Obama or Al Gore, nobody shows up.
There isn't any excitement.
You can't find any excitement for the Clinton campaign, even in the media, other than from the media.
But you can't find average American voters who are all excited for Hillary Clinton, like you can find Boku American voters who are all excited for Donald Trump.
Then you have the LA Times poll that shows Trump up by one.
It may be tied now.
Then you have the Investors Business Daily today, which has Trump up two.
Now let's look at that poll.
That poll got it exactly right in 2012.
Romney lost by 3.8 points.
And it was the IDB poll, IDB Tips, that got it exactly right.
Well, their poll has Trump up by two.
And here is their sample.
They sampled 282 Democrats, 226 Republicans, and 259 Independents.
They sampled Democrats, oversampled them by 2.5%, which is about right, according to party registration and turnout.
Oversampling Democrats by 2.8, 2.5 is pretty correct.
But the ABC poll, ready for this?
Democrats sampled 36%.
Again, in the IDB poll, it was, well, I don't know what the percentages are, but it's 226, 282 Democrats, 226 Republicans.
So it's roughly 30, 30, 30 with the fluctuations here and then the IDB poll.
So by the time you add this up, you have 67% of the sample in the ABC poll is not Republican.
Only 27% is.
And that produces a result of Hillary up 12.
And they're all running with the ABC poll today, the ABC tracking poll.
So you mix all these together.
IDB got it right in 2012.
Their sample seems much more realistic.
And it's much more consistent.
You have the Rasmussen poll that's basically showing Trump up one.
LA Times USC poll is even.
That's had Trump up the last three weeks, point, point and a half.
You have three polls that show this race tied or at two points plus Trump.
And all of the others have Hillary in double digits.
Then you factor what you see.
And Hillary double digits doesn't make any sense.
So you start asking yourself, well, does the drive-by media have that much influence?
Are there that many people out there who are going to vote, despite the stories we have on her high disapproval numbers, are almost up where Trump's are?
Then let's see what's the zero head story on how the ABC poll gave Hillary a 12 point advantage.
And this is a story about the sampling.
36 Democrat, 27 Republican, 31 Independent.
Since 1992, according to Pew Research Center, Democrats have never enjoyed a nine-point registration gap, despite the people at ABC and the Washington Post somehow convincing themselves it was a reasonable margin.
So in this ABC Washington Post poll, there's a 9% advantage in turnout for Democrats, projected turnout, added to whatever the voter registration increases are.
But according to Pew, the Democrats have never had a nine-point registration gap.
So again, zero hedge thinks that we're all being scammed from the Washington Post.
60% of Republicans believe illegal immigrants vote.
43% believe people vote using dead people's names.
Yeah, so here you have it.
Well, yeah, the Washington Post is trying.
This is a story that is designed to dispirit and depress and make Republican voters look like fruitcakes and nutcases.
60% of Republicans believe illegal immigrants vote.
43% believe people vote using dead people's names.
They do.
It's been documented.
It's been discovered.
It's been learned.
But who do you think the source for a story like this is?
Mr. Snerdley, who do you think?
Let me read to you what it says in the opening paragraph.
The 2016 presidential campaign has become a referendum on the process of American electoral democracy itself.
Republican candidate Trump's baseless claims of a rigged election and his refusal to promise to accept the outcome have focused renewed attention on allegations of voter fraud.
Well, the Democrats routinely accuse us of voter fraud.
John Kerry did in 2004 in Ohio.
We don't need to recount what happened in Florida in 2000.
Obama himself has talked about voter fraud.
Routinely, the Democrats mention it and complain about it and whine and moan about it.
But as far as the Washington Post is concerned, it's only Republicans who do this.
But it's a story designed to paint Republicans as kooks.
And it's designed to make everybody think the Republicans are not worth listening to.
I've never seen a coordinated media assault like this.
And I know exactly why it's happening.
This is the establishment circling the wagons.
This is the Washington elites, both parties, media, every ancillary group and individual linking arms and forming their union here to oppose and stop any outsider from having any impact on this election or Washington whatsoever.
And this is exactly what it looks like.
People have weighed in on the phones on this, and they're on hold, and I've got to get to them here.
Take a break and come back and get started with that right after this.
Don't go away.
Okay, to the phones we go.
And I mentioned earlier we have Lenny from Powwe, California.
Great to have you up first today.
Hi, Lenny.
Hi, thanks, Thresh.
I want to make a comment.
I want to disagree with you about your prediction that the polls will tighten.
And I'd like to, if I could at the very end, just add a reason for that based on the two rallies that I've attended.
But first of all, I think this election is way different than 2012 for the press and for the pollsters.
They're willing to keep these numbers at 10 or 12% because it's just too important.
They're not going to let it drop to six just so they can say we were closest.
So that's where I disagree with you.
And I think so that we don't feel like we're deluding ourselves.
When I've been to the two rallies, the rallies I've been to held 20, 25,000 people, and it was an all-day event.
I mean, I stood in line for an hour and a half in the sun to get into the venue three hours and a half.
Okay, now wait a minute.
You said not deluder.
You talk Trump rallies here?
Yeah, yes.
And not deluding ourselves that we're kind of making this up about the polls.
And the reasoning is to go to a Trump rally is literally a seven to eight hour deal.
And I'm going to tell you right now, I'm not going to go stand in the sun with 20,000 other people and then not be a voter.
Every person that goes to a Trump rally, 99% are going to go and vote because it's a hassle.
I mean, you're giving up a day, and it's just not, oh, I think I'm going to go waste some time at a Trump rally.
But anyway, I think the press isn't, and the pollsters are not going to cave just so they're right.
I think this is not the Candy Crowley year where we're going to kind of lean a little bit.
They're all in, and they're willing to say, oh, we were wrong, but at least Trump didn't win.
Well, that makes sense.
I mean, the pollsters are part of the establishment, and their lifeblood depends on the establishment remaining dominant and in the winner column and so forth, and shellacking all oncomers.
So, I can understand your theory that they're really throwing everything at it this year.
To hell with looking accurate, to hell with showing it closer, just going to go the whole way trying to influence every voter we can right up to election day to hell with what's right.
We're just going to run this stuff as it is to try to suppress turnout, depress people.
All these stories about Hillary and the Democrats going to red states to win the House and Senate.
What do you think of those?
Well, I mean, I can see maybe they're delusional, but I'm telling you what, there's this crazy excitement at these rallies.
This isn't what you see in a lambslide where somebody gets beat by 10 or 12 points.
It just, that's just not possible.
You know, so they can maybe they're trying to reinforce it for the pollsters.
I don't know what their intent is, but they're not the smartest people.
I think they're going to be.
Look, I think, I actually think you could have a point here in that the polls are part of the establishment, and this is all in.
Everybody in the establishment's all in.
The consequences of losing here, they don't even want to consider it.
They can't, they can't fathom it.
The idea that any outsider is going to come along and win an election and try to wrest control a country back from they just can't abide it.
So, I can fully understand your theory that the pollsters and everybody else involved, media, why would they care if they're proved wrong?
It's not about that.
This is about stopping the insurgency.
This is about keeping the people with pitchforks outside the gate, no matter what it takes.
And if we're wrong, we'll deal with that later.
But right now, the effort is to swamp Trump, keep him out of here, do whatever we can.
Everything in our MO will arsenal, we will do.
I totally, in fact, this election, if you go back to 1980, you might find a closer parallel, polling-wise.
I don't know about enthusiasm at Reagan rallies.
I know Reagan had tons of enthusiasm starting in 1976, the Republican convention.
But my point in 1980, the polling date in 1980 had Jimmy Carter nine points, winning by nine points four or five days out.
In fact, the last major poll before the 1980 election had Jimmy Carter winning by nine points, I think it was.
I will never forget that election night, folks.
In 1980, it was so bad for the Democrats.
They got skunked so bad.
Jimmy Carter conceded before 10 p.m. Eastern Time.
Before the polls in California were even closed.
Now, back in 1980, the Republicans were still viable in California.
They are not now.
So I'm not drawing that analogy.
Don't anybody misunderstand.
But I'm saying there's precedent here for pollsters not trying to get close to being right as we near an election because they still had it, Jimmy Carter winning by nine.
I think the last poll was done.
It's either five days or maybe it was a week before the election.
I remember that was it.
You should have seen the network.
There were just three networks back.
It's ABC, CBS, and NBC.
That's it.
CNN was around, but they were, they had just started.
They were not much of a factor.
Those three networks, you should have seen the long faces and all of the reporters that were at various campaign headquarter locations.
And Guy Lombardo and his band were over at the Waldorf Astoria.
I mean, it was unforgettable how devastating they all felt, devastated they all felt, and looked reporting those because they hated Reagan.
They despised Reagan like they despise Trump now.
But look, this is what I mentioned earlier: people asking me how this can be.
How can the polls show what they're showing with all of this energy?
At every Trump rally, there is every one.
It's not just a couple.
Every Trump rally there is is overwhelming.
Anyway, I appreciate the call, Lenny.
Thanks so much.
We have a brief time out here.
There's still further polling news in my stack of stuff here to get to.
And we went back and found the tape of me being interviewed by Paula Zahn, 1980.
Let you hear a little bit of that.
When we get 19, 2000, 2000.
Okay, here we go.
Cookie went back to the archives and found it.
This is November 1st in the year 2000, Fox News Channel, The Edge with Paula Zahn.
Remember, after this program, I got a call from the owner of the Oakland Raiders, Al Davis, who wanted to talk to me about the late Al Davis, who wanted to expand on a point that I had made in this interview about taxes and tax policy and African Americans.
And his point was that he wanted to tell me that the African American players on his team did not think of themselves as the rich, even though they were by virtue of what they were making.
And he said the outreach needed to be made in that regard, that the wealthy African-American, particularly athletes, were a fertile ground for Republicans if they knew how to approach them and deal with it.
Nothing ever came of it, but I was fascinated that Al Davis reached out.
At any rate, that's just a little anecdotal story about all this.
This runs about 42 seconds.
And remember, this whole interview, the polling data is showing that Al Gore is going to win.
And I'm telling Paul Lazan, I just don't believe this, Paula.
I'm just not in here.
The interview picks up with Paula Zahn saying, you're making it sound like it's an absolute given that George W. Bush is going to win.
Now, if you look at these polls and you munch them all together, isn't the bottom line, although Bush may enjoy slight lead in some of these polls, you're looking with a margin of error.
It's a statistical dead heat.
No, I don't think it's a statistical dead heat.
I don't want to argue poll by poll.
But what is your interpretation?
My interpretation is that this race is a lot bigger margin of victory than anybody in the press wants to make it out to be.
Wait, are you suggesting we're misidentifying the numbers or we're interpreting them incorrectly?
I think the press relies on these polls, and that's all you rely on.
There's a lot of other factors you can look at.
You can look at the momentum.
You can look at the attitude of the two candidates.
You can see who's up and positive.
You can see who's down on the dumps.
You can see who's excited to be out there.
You can see who appears to be going through the motions.
You can see whose supporters are ready to go and excited.
You can see other supporters who look like corpses.
You can look at the strategy.
I mean, the polls, they're good for one thing, but they're not the final analysis.
Yeah, this is something I've always believed.
I've always believed that polls are not the Bible.
My instincts have always made me question polls.
And for the most basic of reasons, it's like I question the Nielsen TV ratings.
You know, it's just my common sense.
I understand that they can scientifically quantify and analyze all they want, but I remain curious.
You want to tell me that a thousand people in this country with little boxes on their TVs can tell us what millions of people are actually watching.
Well, since the TV producers and networks and everybody accept it, then yeah.
If the TV industry, the TV broadcast industry accepts what Nielsen says, then yeah.
But I'm a bigger doubting Thomas.
Now, I don't go so far as to say, well, I don't have one of those boxes, never pulled me.
I don't do that.
I mean, I'm not that big a lughead.
But I do have questions about how 1,000 people can be collected and chosen in a way that statistically, unequivocally represents an audience of 200 million Americans watching television.
Yeah, well, I know that's that's I've heard that analogy that one drop of blood can tell a scientist everything going on in your body.
Okay, well, fine.
By the same token, you go out and survey seven, eight hundred people and you pick them according to the best representation of the voting population that you can get, if you're doing it up front, honestly, that you can get a margin of error, pinpoint prediction of how the election's going to go.
It's always been a tough thing for me to see, even when I've been on the side of the winners.
You remember the 1994?
By the way, you Republicans, I'm going to get something out there in advance.
You Republicans and your circular fire.
You know, I'll tell you what, what ticks me off as much as anything about what's going on right now.
Let me just launch here.
The Republican Party simply does not know how to win and doesn't know what to do when they do win.
And can I give you the best example of it?
The best example is the winning of the House of Representatives for the first time in 1994.
And what did they do with it?
What do they have to show for it?
I mean, in terms of actual shifts in cultural and policy direction in this country.
They did gangbusters for a couple of three years, but then the media began its search and destroy mission on the Republican leaders, and they're not there anymore.
And almost all of the Republican leaders, the conservative Republican leaders from 1994 have been neutered into now just don't notice me, Republicans.
And it's stunning.
So here we have the Republican Party today, which has already, at best I can tell, I'm not talking, let me stipulate something here.
The Republican National Committee right now has a couple of people that are still doing everything they can.
Sean Spicer is out there doing everything he can and Priebus to a certain extent.
I'm talking about elected Republicans and think tank Republicans and media Republicans who have given up.
They have caved.
They have presumed defeat, massive defeat, almost in some cases, as though they're looking forward to it, in order to discredit other Republicans or other conservatives.
And the fate of the country doesn't seem to matter to them at all.
And let me tell you why it should.
When I ask you a simple question, who won the Cold War?
Who won the Cold War?
United States won the Cold War.
No, we didn't.
No, we didn't.
We did not crush Russia.
We did not crush communism.
It's still taught in America.
Communism, anti-Americanism, is at an all-time high at all levels of American education and culture.
It is what is cool.
It is what hip.
Look at Kaepernick.
Look at all these protests.
Look at the anti-cop stuff.
The anti-American founding, anti-America period meme and narrative is more popular than ever at an all-time high at educational institutions all over this country.
How is that possible after we did?
In terms of the Cold War, the Russians gave up.
The Soviet Union gave up and the wall came down.
Why didn't communism get buried at the same time?
Because it sure as hell did not.
Communism is as big and powerful and pervasive in this country as it has ever been.
It has taken over the Democrat Party.
It has taken over Hollywood.
It has taken over the entertainment industry.
If it's defined by America sucks, America's bad, America's racist, America's discriminatory, the cops are bad, all of these, America is flawed.
Where does that come from?
It comes from communism.
It comes from the Soviet Union.
Vladimir Putin was at the KGB during Russia's, the Soviet Union's primacy.
Where is he today?
He is the president of the Soviet Union, i.e.
Russia.
Putin didn't go anywhere.
The KGB didn't go anywhere.
They just gave it a new name.
We won the Cold War and have nothing to show for it, is my point.
Now, one of the reasons we don't is because the Democrats didn't want us to win the Cold War.
They thought it would be destabilizing for the Soviet Union to go defunct and to have only one superpower, us.
As bizarre and depraved as that sounds, that's exactly what they thought.
The world was not safe with only one superpower if it was us.
We were the imperialists.
We loot other countries.
We impose our way of life on other countries, but you can't deny to me that Marxism, as a philosophy, is not taught and is not—look at the millennial population today.
They don't know that it's Marxism.
They're not, of course, told that.
But look at how many people running around think America is the problem in the world.
You tell me the communists haven't won.
You tell me they lost the Cold War.
They did not.
Well, the Soviets may have.
Communism didn't.
Marxism is still fashionable.
It's still cool.
It's still how the Democrats get where they want to go.
They don't, of course, call it Marxism, but they campaign on it.
What do you think class envy is?
What is class warfare?
What is attacking every institution that has defined this nation either as a capitalist superpower or as a cultural superpower or as a moral superpower?
Where does that come from?
It doesn't come from a Declaration of Independence, which is not taught today.
It doesn't come from the Constitution, which is not taught today.
What's taught is all this Counter-American stuff that is very seductive to young people because it's rooted in class envy and equality and all of these other things that they have been made to believe are paramountly important, when they're nothing but ruses and tricks designed to get people to actually turn against
the things that make something distinctively American.
So in this mix, we have the Republican Party, which ceased being an opposition.
But look at what the Republican Party was given in 2010 and look at what it was given in 2012 and look at what it has.
What did it do with those two landslide midterm elections?
It gave it the House, then gave it the Senate.
Prior to that, the House of Representatives, for the first time in 40 years, 1994, I was made an honorary member of the freshman class that year because those people thought that I had something to do with it.
It was the first time the House was in Republican control for 40 years.
And Newt Gingrich is a speaker out there, his contract with America.
So all kinds of reasons why it happened.
And of the reasons, it had substance.
The contract with America was said the Democrats were so enmeshed in scandal.
There was the House Bank scandal.
There was the House Post Office scandal that dare say would not have ever been known were it not for conservative media.
So now here we are in 2016 and the Republicans could not nominate whoever they wanted to nominate.
So it's got to be somebody's fault besides theirs.
And guess whose it is?
And if what I'm reading is right, they're going to join forces with the Democrats after Trump loses in this landslide.
And they're going to join forces to do everything they can to take out conservative media because that's the problem.
Conservative media is why Republicans can't win Diddle East, if you believe it.
But that's what they're out there trying to set up even now.
They have been given victory after victory after electoral victory after electoral victory, and they don't have very much to show for it.
They can't even get one of their own people nominated in terms of how they look at it.
And who's to blame?
Certainly not them.
Oh, no.
They sound just like Obama when he goes out after conservative media.
Anyway, I'm a little long here, folks.
Back in just a second.
Stephen Lexington, Kentucky.
Great to have you with us, sir, on the EIB Network.
Hello.
Good to be here.
I've got a, I guess, to give people some hope for this election.
Last year when Matt Bevin ran for governor of Kentucky, he was up against a Louisville elite candidate, and all the news media had him down by, I believe, five points the night before the election.
And lo and behold, the next day, he went by almost a landslide, almost 10 points.
I remember that.
You remember that?
Yeah, I do, of course.
And Bevin is a lot like Trump.
He's a businessman.
He was never really a politician.
So, you know, it kind of plays into a lot of the themes that maybe on a smaller level, but it still kind of plays into the bigger picture of things that, you know, everybody around here was in the tank for the other guy, Jack Conway, who was, you know, the darling of the Democratic Party.
And it's always been hard for a Republican to win the governorship in Kentucky.
Yeah, look, here's the problem.
With every one of these stories, you can call and tell me.
I can find you five polling stories that were accurate.
And this is the challenge, folks.
Look, there's nobody that wants these polls to be wrong more than I do.
And in 2012, I sat here every day and told you they were wrong because they were using the wrong turnout model, that they were not factoring the turnout in 2010.
All those Tea Party people and all these, and I figured 2012 would be a different turnout, not nearly as upbeat and enthusiastic for Obama because it was a one-time thing.
You know, first African-American president, first time on the ballot, hard to replicate that in 2012.
But then I didn't factor the Romney side and the effect the nomination of Romney and his whole campaign had on the Republicans.
I made a foolish mistake of assuming that every Republican that could vote would vote because they were so fed up with Obama and the economy.
And as we learned later, there were anywhere from two to four million Republicans that didn't show up, that didn't vote in 2012, who did vote for McCain.
And it was left then for experts to tell us why they didn't show up.
And one of the theories was, well, Romney wasn't conservative.
Everybody knew it.
And the conservatives fed up the Republicans for nominating another Northeastern liberal, essentially, a moderate that was going to lose.
We had all kinds of explanations for it.
And I sat here and forced for, and Dick Morris, Dick Morris, he was doing the same thing.
And he later admitted that he knew all along that the polls were right.
He was just trying to keep the Fox News audience enthused and optimistic.
And after he admitted that, it wasn't long after that he left Fox News.
But I remember that Morris saying what he was saying gave me a measure of security in saying it myself.
So look, I know that there are countless examples of the pollsters getting it wrong.
1980, Reagan, and Carter.
But for every one of those that you cite, there's a whole slew that you can point to that were right on the money, too.
So that's one thing.
I don't know, folks.
I literally don't know.
I'm just like you.
I look at the external signs and the polls don't make any sense to me.
So I don't know.
I'm not going to get caught in a trap again of automatically rejecting what's out there, but all the while understanding this is a different election.
This is the establishment doing whatever it takes to remain in power.
And that is no small set of circumstances there, by the way.
Fastest three hours in media, folks.
We have one more big, exciting broadcast hour remains, and it's coming right up.