Part Of The Problem - Dave Smith - Scott Horton on Iran
Aired: 2026-03-12
Duration: 01:15:11


=== Why I Am A Libertarian (09:40) ===

[00:00:07]  What's up, everybody?
[00:00:08]  Welcome to a brand new episode of Part of the Problem.
[00:00:11]  We got a good one for you today, as it's always a great one when we have Scott Horton on the show.
[00:00:17]  I don't know that there is at this point anyone who listens to my show who isn't already very familiar with Scott and his work.
[00:00:23]  But if you're not, you really should get familiar with him.
[00:00:26]  He's the best foreign policy guy in the country.
[00:00:29]  His books, Fool's Errand and Enough Already, and Provoked, the first two being about the terror wars and the latter being about the proxy war in Ukraine, are just phenomenal.
[00:00:41]  I mean, I've learned so much from them.
[00:00:43]  And of course, he's a longtime managing editor over at anti-war.com, which is, I mean, all I always sing the praises of that organization, but man, have they just been particularly invaluable lately when really nobody is we'll get into it in the episode, but my God, the dereliction of duty of the corporate media, nothing that we're surprised about, but Dave DeCamp and Kyle Ansloan, those guys have just been phenomenal as usual.
[00:01:12]  And of course, he has the Scottish, the Scott Horton Academy, which if you really want to become an expert in this thing and be able to, if you want to be able to win every debate on this topic and really understand what's going on, you got to sign up over there.
[00:01:27]  So Scott, thank you so much for coming on.
[00:01:30]  How's it going?
[00:01:32]  Thanks, Dave.
[00:01:33]  Good to be here.
[00:01:33]  Thanks for that introduction.
[00:01:34]  Also do two shows here on the YouTube.
[00:01:36]  Oh, yeah.
[00:01:37]  The Scott Horton show is my interview show and Provoked with Daryl Cooper that we do usually live on Friday nights, although not so much this month.
[00:01:45]  But anyway, thanks for having me, man.
[00:01:46]  I know.
[00:01:47]  I'm sorry.
[00:01:47]  It's a really long bio.
[00:01:49]  No, it's no problem.
[00:01:50]  Listen, dude, your show and Provoked are phenomenal as well.
[00:01:53]  And people really should go listen to both of those.
[00:01:56]  Provoked, of course, your show with Daryl Cooper.
[00:01:58]  And you guys always have very insightful and thoughtful takes on what's going on.
[00:02:04]  And obviously, I wanted, so just so note to the viewers, our listeners.
[00:02:09]  So I am headed off.
[00:02:11]  I'm going to go.
[00:02:12]  I'm taking the family on vacation tomorrow.
[00:02:14]  I'm going to be gone for a week.
[00:02:16]  I understand that is not the best timing, but we planned this out like six months ago.
[00:02:20]  So, you know, I don't, if Donald Trump could start, you know, insane wars, better timing, that'd be good.
[00:02:28]  But anyway, so I will, the members only episode will not be tomorrow.
[00:02:31]  I will make all of that up next week and then we'll get back to it.
[00:02:35]  But I wanted to make sure I got Scott in here before I left because, you know, there's a new war going on and we haven't had you on the show yet.
[00:02:42]  And you're always the best at breaking these things down.
[00:02:44]  And particularly for ruining your vacation, dude, what happened was they heard that I was moving.
[00:02:50]  And so it's war now.
[00:02:52]  And then you're just collateral damage in the thing.
[00:02:54]  I was, you were using me as a human shield of sorts, I feel.
[00:02:58]  But this also, it's not just a, you know, it's not just that there's a new war on, but this is a war that really is been your, you know, I mean, you've had several different areas of expertise and areas that you've really, you know, specialized in, but Iran is debatably the biggest one.
[00:03:16]  I mean, there's even though your books were, well, I mean, you know, enough already is actually a lot about Iran.
[00:03:23]  And so there's, and you've been talking about this and debunking all of the war propaganda lies for decades at this point.
[00:03:30]  And so I'm very interested to get your perspective on this.
[00:03:32]  I just, before we get into that, I did want to just base, I wanted to talk about something very quickly and then we'll talk about Iran for the rest of the show.
[00:03:40]  But I wanted to, I got into like a little bit of a like a Twitter back and forth with Mehdi Hassan yesterday.
[00:03:49]  And, you know, we ended up messaging each other like afterward and it was resolved amicably.
[00:03:55]  And like, I, you know, I don't know.
[00:03:57]  I just got enough, I got enough enemies and I'm fighting with enough people.
[00:04:00]  There's enough people out there who hate me and want to ruin me and all this shit.
[00:04:03]  They're like, I don't really want to be fighting with other people who are against this right now because, you know, like just doesn't seem to make any sense.
[00:04:11]  But, you know, there's this kind of dynamic.
[00:04:13]  And I responded to him because it's, it's been a little bit bigger than just him.
[00:04:18]  I've seen several people, leftists, some libertarians who have really been kind of, you know, really, let's say, giving a hard time to me and other people who supported Donald Trump in 24.
[00:04:34]  And it's interesting to have you here for this because you did not support Donald Trump in 24.
[00:04:39]  And so it's, you know, I'm curious to get your take on this, I suppose.
[00:04:42]  But from my, from my perspective, it's not the easiest place to be to make this argument because it's like, well, look, yeah, I was wrong to vote for Donald Trump.
[00:04:51]  This does certainly seem worse than even just a standard administration.
[00:04:56]  The calculation was wrong.
[00:04:58]  That being said, I was making the point to Meddy, which I, you know, to a lot of people, you know, I've gotten this from kind of a group of the purist libertarians who are upset with me because I voted for Donald Trump.
[00:05:10]  And then you get this a lot from more like liberal or leftist types.
[00:05:14]  One insane chick in the Libertarian Party, who I'm embarrassed to have ever supported, tweeted to me.
[00:05:22]  She goes, she said, you know, I was calling out Donald Trump and she said, you, you voted for Donald Trump.
[00:05:27]  Sit down.
[00:05:29]  And you're like, so that's, I go, so that's what you'd have me do, libertarian lady.
[00:05:33]  That would be your strategy would have me in this moment sit down and stop like, you know, convincing people that this is bad or something.
[00:05:42]  I just thought from you, Smith.
[00:05:43]  Well, look, what I said to Meddy, and I think this is fair, and I'm not trying to knock the guy.
[00:05:48]  We have a lot of areas of disagreement, but you know what?
[00:05:50]  We have a lot of areas of agreement.
[00:05:51]  And when Meddy's on your side, he's a good, he's a pitball.
[00:05:54]  He's a good guy arguing, you know, against the war or whatever.
[00:05:58]  But like, all I said is this, Scott.
[00:06:00]  And tell me if you think this is fair.
[00:06:02]  When the anti-war left suddenly re-emerged after, me and you were in there, we were good friends and we were on the front lines of this information war all those years where they just didn't care, dude.
[00:06:14]  Like Libya, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, me and you were losing our minds about this.
[00:06:19]  None of them, all of a sudden on Gaza, and I mean, there were good anti-war leftists all along, obviously, but the mass movement of leftists against the war came back.
[00:06:29]  And guys like me and you all went, great.
[00:06:32]  That's awesome that you're back.
[00:06:34]  That's awesome that you're good on this most important issue.
[00:06:37]  Because what really matters is like, there's a goddamn genocide going on.
[00:06:40]  We need as many people against this thing as we can get.
[00:06:42]  And I never would have even thought to go to one of them to go, ha ha, you voted for Biden, dummy.
[00:06:49]  Isn't there, sit down?
[00:06:51]  Isn't there egg on your face?
[00:06:52]  Like you're somehow so stupid that you got duped or you're somehow culpable or something like that.
[00:06:58]  Media son, the guy calling me out, voted for Biden and calls out the genocide in Gaza.
[00:07:04]  He voted for the guy who started the genocide, but yet somehow now, anyway, I just wanted to make this point that it's like, guys, like, first of all, this is stupid.
[00:07:13]  But second of all, like, can we just like, why wouldn't you want this, by the way, this comes off of, and obviously I'm catching his back because he's a close friend and he's my general.
[00:07:25]  But Rogan came out and criticized the war.
[00:07:27]  And then, you know, people are like giving him shit because he supported Trump.
[00:07:30]  And you're like, dude, he's the most influential guy in the country.
[00:07:33]  You don't want the most influential guy in the country to be against this thing right now.
[00:07:37]  Like, I just, I don't know, man.
[00:07:38]  Like, what's, you know, you have cleaner hands in this than me because obviously I'm biased here.
[00:07:43]  I voted for the guy and I kind of look bad for doing it.
[00:07:45]  But what do you think about all of this?
[00:07:48]  Well, a few things.
[00:07:49]  I mean, just on that last point, and this goes for you and for Rogan too, it's more important that y'all are former Trump supporters who changed your mind.
[00:07:58]  That's how you're listed in this thing.
[00:08:01]  Not that I like talked with you about your endorsement of Trump or whatever, but I think it does work out for the best that you're listed in a long list of names of people who supported him and avowedly so, you know, endorsed him, not just voted for him, but endorsed him, who then said, oh man, but I'm not going with him down this road on whichever road it was, and even including in his first year of his second term here.
[00:08:28]  And so, you know, in a way, if you understand my meaning here, I wish I'd had voted for him just so I could also be a former Trump supporter kind of thing.
[00:08:39]  The same way as it would be better for my argument if I had ever been in the army or, you know, these kinds of things.
[00:08:46]  You got to attack the right from the right.
[00:08:48]  Well, I'm a libertarian.
[00:08:50]  You know, I'm an Austinite, Dave.
[00:08:52]  So I'm from Austin, but I'm also from Texas.
[00:08:56]  And so this is why I'm a libertarian.
[00:08:58]  There's a lot of libertarians in this town.
[00:09:00]  A lot of people end up bad on everything in this town, but a lot of people end up good on everything.
[00:09:04]  But so as an Austinite and as a Texan, I've always understood and sympathized with to some degree why anyone on the left would think the right is worse and would support the left in defense against that and vice versa.
[00:09:19]  It's so obvious.
[00:09:20]  So many reasons.
[00:09:21]  There's so many things bad about the left.
[00:09:23]  Why anyone would have at least a 50-50 chance of deciding that, no, they're a right winger and they've got to stand at least against those guys.
[00:09:32]  And as politics, sorry, as Jess Ramondo said, politics is about who you hate.
[00:09:38]  And so like, why do we even have these giant coalitions of the left and the right in the first place that make up these parties?
[00:09:44]  It's to keep the other guys out because they're worse.

=== The Left's Testosterone Problem (02:42) ===

[00:09:47]  That's what it's all about.
[00:09:49]  And so, and in fact, what was the choice in 2024?
[00:09:53]  Was it about having Donald Trump or no president at all?
[00:09:58]  That would have been nice.
[00:09:59]  No, it was him or Kamala Harris.
[00:10:01]  And can you imagine just if the cultural and political left remained completely unchecked since 2009 all the way through?
[00:10:11]  Because the first Trump term was no check on it.
[00:10:14]  And they're getting completely out of control.
[00:10:17]  And as I've said all along, quite publicly from the very beginning, I have rooted for Trump all three times.
[00:10:23]  I can never cast my vote for him because of the Zionism.
[00:10:26]  It's just the most poisoned pill in America first.
[00:10:29]  And I can just see right through the guy.
[00:10:31]  As long as he's a Zionist, then he's taking us to war.
[00:10:35]  And there's a lot of other things wrong with him too.
[00:10:37]  But that's his curse.
[00:10:38]  That's something that he can never get out from under.
[00:10:41]  He might as well have Paul Wolfowitz as his chief of staff and secretary of defense and national security advisor and secretary of state too.
[00:10:49]  He's doing what they couldn't pull off, right?
[00:10:50]  Yeah.
[00:10:52]  What do people mean when they criticize Paul Wolfowitz?
[00:10:54]  They're talking about Benjamin Netanyahu.
[00:10:55]  That's who Paul Wolfowitz is, is Benjamin Netanyahu's agent in America, right?
[00:11:00]  So, you know, for those less familiar, Sharon was prime minister back then, but the neoconservatives in America were really closer to Netanyahu and the, you know, his faction of Likud, which Sharon ended up leaving and creating his own party and leaving Likud to Netanyahu.
[00:11:15]  So anyway.
[00:11:16]  All right, guys, let's take a moment and thank our sponsor for today's show, which is the Wellness Company highlighting their new product, Mars.
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=== Bahrain, UAE, And Missiles (16:24) ===

[00:12:30]  So look, I don't blame anybody for voting for Trump, and especially when it comes to keeping the other guys out.
[00:12:37]  Sams, I don't necessarily really blame Democrats for being more afraid of the right because of the things that are dangerous about them, you know, depending on what it is.
[00:12:46]  I'm much more sympathetic with the right these days, just because the left went completely nuts having too much hegemony for too long in a row.
[00:12:55]  And so there are certainly, you know, but I'm certainly not mad at you or anybody else that voted for Trump.
[00:13:03]  I don't, I don't blame y'all.
[00:13:06]  I think anyone who says that, you know, geez, we had no way of knowing that he had violent tendencies of any kind were willfully blind during his first term when he bombed Afghanistan for four years straight, by the way.
[00:13:19]  You know, well, yeah, I mean, basically kept up air operations in the south of the country for like three out of the four years and killed tens of thousands of people.
[00:13:29]  And then, of course, he supported the Saudi and UAE war against the poor people of Yemen for four years straight, a war he again inherited from Obama, but kept going on for his entire time in power.
[00:13:44]  You know, was ruthless in his destruction of the Islamic State and finishing Iraq War III there, took all the gloves off and devolved command authority as far down the chain of command as possible.
[00:13:54]  Same for Somalia.
[00:13:56]  And I was just finally finishing the audio book of Provoked.
[00:14:01]  And the very end of it is I wrote it after the election, but before he sworn in, right?
[00:14:05]  The book came out in November after the election of 24.
[00:14:09]  And I cite in there a lot of reasons to be pessimistic about Trump's foreign policy in his second term.
[00:14:16]  You know, as bad as we needed Ron Paul, we got Rudy Giuliani.
[00:14:20]  And that's really who Donald Trump is.
[00:14:22]  And people I know like to, I'm reminded of an old argument I got in with Justin Raimondo on about Trump back in 2016, where I says, Trump, I'm for and against everything.
[00:14:37]  Justin, wow, I really like about half of the things this guy said.
[00:14:43]  You know what I mean?
[00:14:43]  Like, I'm just sitting here going, yeah, I'm sorry.
[00:14:47]  This isn't going to work on me.
[00:14:48]  Call me too much of a purist myself, I guess.
[00:14:50]  But after, you know, essentially raising Ron Paul up to some sort of demigod type status in my mind, it's hard to compare another politician to him and not be too disappointed, you know?
[00:15:04]  No, that's for sure.
[00:15:06]  And, you know, I always knew it's funny because I do feel like, again, whatever.
[00:15:11]  I shouldn't spend too much time defending myself here.
[00:15:13]  I'll leave it to other people to do that.
[00:15:15]  But I feel like, like, if you go back and listen to any of the episodes, even when I said I was supporting Donald Trump, I mean, I think there was one, I once referred to it as the most unenthusiastic vote in the history of voting.
[00:15:28]  I basically said that it was just a middle finger to Kamala Harris.
[00:15:31]  And I was particularly, I kind of, I didn't support Trump all the way through the campaign.
[00:15:36]  It was at the very end when Kamala Harris started bringing Liz Cheney out on the campaign trail with her and then giving a whole fucking, you know, like in the most idiotic Kamala Harris, giving a history lesson about how World War II means we've got to fight stuff.
[00:15:56]  I read that quote in a speech one time and just killed everyone was just dying laughing.
[00:16:01]  I mean, it's just ridiculous, dude.
[00:16:03]  But anyway, so, but I was never really selling Donald Trump as, oh, no, he's the peace president.
[00:16:07]  He's going to be against the wars.
[00:16:09]  I was, let's say, extremely cautiously optimistic that, like, well, I mean, the establishment really has pissed him off this time.
[00:16:18]  They've really tried to put him in jail and maybe even tried to kill him.
[00:16:22]  And okay, look, he's bringing in Tulsi Gabbard and he's bringing it, you know, kind of figures like, oh, JD Vance, he picked him instead of Ruby.
[00:16:29]  You know, there was like some, maybe this, I will say this, and this is, I think, where I really got things wrong.
[00:16:34]  And I think this, I, I was very dis, I, I realized how I had gotten things wrong last summer during the 12-day war was that I guess I and I always said, in fact, I believe it's, it's on record, but it was when Zach and Liz had me on their show and they said, what's the number one concern about a second President Trump term?
[00:16:57]  And I went, oh, well, Iran is the number one concern.
[00:16:59]  Like he's a real hawk on a ramp.
[00:17:01]  And then Liz said that he won't attack.
[00:17:03]  Yeah, that is a danger.
[00:17:05]  That's not exactly what she said.
[00:17:07]  She's, she's better when I'm around.
[00:17:09]  But so I guess like, and maybe you could take us through a little bit of this history here, but I guess this is the thing that I kind of got wrong.
[00:17:16]  So I know that because I've learned this from your, your excellent work, as well as some other great writers, that, okay, so at the end of the Bush administration, right?
[00:17:28]  What was it?
[00:17:28]  I think it was in 2007 or 2008, maybe even when there was really the push to go, when Cheney was trying to push W to go to war in Iran.
[00:17:37]  So it's an 07.
[00:17:39]  And essentially, it was a bunch of stuff like all right around that time happened where there was the CIA came out and said, like, they're not working on a bomb.
[00:17:49]  Like, they're not trying to develop a nuclear weapon.
[00:17:52]  And then the actual military like convinced George W. Bush that like, yo, we cannot do this.
[00:17:59]  And there was all types of concerns over escalation dominance and retaliatory attacks and, you know, a lot of the stuff that we're seeing playing out right now.
[00:18:06]  And I suppose that I really did, you know, get trapped in a little bit of like, this is the end of history moment there, where I just, I got, I think I got a little married to the narrative that, hey, the fucking clean break, you know, Israel serving neocons.
[00:18:24]  They had this plan for getting these seven regime changes, but Vladimir Putin denied him one in Syria and the logistics were just too impossible in Iran.
[00:18:33]  And so that's kind of like boxing.
[00:18:35]  And then, you know, oh, they ended up getting their regime change in Syria anyway.
[00:18:39]  And then they ended up getting their war in Iran anyway.
[00:18:42]  So, but I guess I thought that those obstacles, the fact that the intelligence agencies and the military top brass were like, we will not do this, that that would essentially box out, you know, this, this crazy policy.
[00:18:56]  Or I was wrong about that.
[00:18:58]  Yeah.
[00:18:58]  Well, it worked on W. Bush.
[00:19:00]  So to go back to then, what happened was, if you'll remember that Donald Rumsfeld said, we should get out of Iraq.
[00:19:07]  James Baker's right.
[00:19:08]  Let's cut and run.
[00:19:09]  And Bush said, you're fired and brought in Robert Gates and decided to increase the war instead and send an extra 30,000 troops to the war.
[00:19:17]  And this was the so-called surge.
[00:19:19]  And he put David Petraeus in charge.
[00:19:21]  And so there were two big narratives at the time.
[00:19:24]  One was that everything wrong in Iraq is Iran's fault, even though we've been fighting for the Shiites against the Sunni insurgency all this time.
[00:19:36]  So that's kind of odd, but okay.
[00:19:38]  And based on that claim, they went to war against Muqtada al-Sadr, who was the least Iranian tide of the three major pillars of the Shiite United Iraqi alliance.
[00:19:48]  Dawah and Skiri had been living in Iran for 20 years.
[00:19:52]  Sadr had stayed.
[00:19:53]  But at this time, they attacked him and actually ended up chasing him into Iran, making him closer to Iran.
[00:19:59]  And then where he went to school and got a higher religious rank.
[00:20:02]  A little bit of blowback for you there.
[00:20:04]  But again, the whole war was being fought for him and for this United Iraqi alliance who had written the constitution and won the elections and all that.
[00:20:12]  But so as part of this, they were building the narrative.
[00:20:15]  As long as they're attacking the Shiites in Sadr city and East Baghdad and down in Najaf, and they're fighting back, then they say that every time a Shiite sets off a bomb, it's an Iranian bomb.
[00:20:25]  It's not just an IED improvised explosive device.
[00:20:29]  It's an EFP explosively foreign penetrator.
[00:20:32]  And you're just supposed to believe that they all come from Iran.
[00:20:36]  Now, it's not true.
[00:20:37]  And as I show in enough already, I have, I guess it's like seven or eight different sources from American media where they were there in Iraq and found, you know, embedded with U.S. troops and found these machine shops in Iraq where these bombs were being made in Iraq by Iraqis.
[00:20:55]  Happened over and over and over again.
[00:20:57]  And they were going to do a big press conference and prove that they were coming from Iran.
[00:21:01]  And then the reporters started gathering around the pile of material and they said the parts, some of the parts that made in Hadithah or made in UAE on them and things like this, showing that they had not come from Iran at all.
[00:21:13]  And then they ended up closing down the press conference.
[00:21:15]  And the national security advisor Stephen Hadley admitted, yeah, well, the evidence wasn't quite there for that.
[00:21:19]  And this was after months and months of Michael Gordon was part of this conspiracy with Dick Cheney and David Petraeus.
[00:21:26]  And he's from the New York Times.
[00:21:28]  He's now at the Wall Street Journal.
[00:21:29]  He was the co-author with Judith Miller of all of those stories about Saddam seeking A-bomb parts.
[00:21:34]  He wants to spend centrifuges and enrich uranium and all this stuff.
[00:21:38]  Michael Gordon was co-author on all those.
[00:21:40]  She got crucified.
[00:21:41]  He got promoted.
[00:21:42]  And anyway, so here he is in 07 pushing this lie about the EFPs.
[00:21:46]  And they were trying to do this as a drumbeat to get Bush to attack Iran.
[00:21:50]  They actually, Dave, it was funny because I remember this, we joked about at the time that they sort of forgot all about Iran's illicit secret nuclear weapons program for like half a year or more, because now it's all about these EFPs.
[00:22:03]  And since they're lying and it's a matter of just changing narratives, the truth doesn't keep, you know, the thing they used to say doesn't keep coming up because it's not really there.
[00:22:11]  You know what I mean?
[00:22:12]  Anyway, but as you mentioned, the Pentagon had told Bush in January of 07, they said, listen, we will do the search.
[00:22:23]  No problem, Mr. President, but we don't want to go to Iran.
[00:22:26]  Now, the question is, same as now.
[00:22:29]  Can America defeat them, like ultimately crush their military and degrade their government forces, potentially even to the point of collapse?
[00:22:39]  Sure.
[00:22:39]  I mean, even shorter nukes, we have B-52s.
[00:22:42]  People have seen the footage of the B-52s just pouring what they call carpet bombing over North Vietnam.
[00:22:49]  You could do that to Tehran, right?
[00:22:51]  Does America have the ability to do that?
[00:22:53]  Yeah.
[00:22:54]  But did they, will they have a say in a conflict?
[00:22:58]  Even if we went to total air war against them like that, would they have a say in the conflict?
[00:23:03]  Yes, they would.
[00:23:04]  And we would not have escalation dominance, which means their idea that they would control every stage of the war, whether it ramps up or ramps down or whatever it is, that it's all on them to decide what happens next in the war.
[00:23:16]  The other guys are only ever reacting to us.
[00:23:18]  They don't want to fight unless it's that unfair of a fight.
[00:23:21]  And they're saying it won't be.
[00:23:22]  They will be able to reach out and touch us.
[00:23:25]  Now, at that time, we had something like 50,000 guys in Afghanistan and 150,000 guys in Iraq.
[00:23:31]  And especially in Iraq, they were embedded with Shiite forces.
[00:23:34]  And Sauter's forces and the Supreme Islamic Council's forces, the Badr Brigade, had both sworn that they would take Iran's side and kill our guys who they were embedded with, who we'd been fighting the war for this whole time, and that they would all be Order 66 right out of there.
[00:23:48]  And so this was one of the main reasons back then that the Pentagon did not want to take that on.
[00:23:54]  But at the same time, and I swear, some enterprising young students should go back and find, go search through the YouTubes.
[00:24:01]  Maybe the AI is good enough now to find it.
[00:24:05]  I bet you could find probably 25 times or maybe more, maybe 50 times in various interviews or something that I've said over the last 15, 20 years in these various forums about this, that we have troops in Kuwait, in Bahrain, where it's the Fifth Fleet.
[00:24:21]  We have Army and Air Force in Kuwait.
[00:24:23]  We have the Fifth Fleet station at Bahrain.
[00:24:26]  We have the massive Al-Udid air base in Qatar, which is Central Command Headquarters.
[00:24:31]  And of course, we have bases in Saudi Arabia and UAE.
[00:24:35]  And I didn't even realize Oman, but I guess I should have known, yeah, Oman too.
[00:24:39]  And of course, there's a trillion, or sometimes I've said gazillion.
[00:24:42]  I'm like Ron Paul, just say the same thing over and over again for 20 years in a row.
[00:24:46]  And something like trillions of dollars worth or gazillions of dollars worth of economic targets all up and down the other side of that Gulf, including oil and every other kind of economic target, you know, airports and hotels and all of these other things.
[00:25:02]  And what do they do?
[00:25:04]  They hit everything.
[00:25:04]  The New York Times has an update today where they've hit, I don't want to get the number wrong.
[00:25:09]  They've hit a lot of bases over there and they've taken out a lot of radar stations.
[00:25:13]  Now, they're not just decimating everything, but they are severely crippling each and every base virtually over there that America has.
[00:25:23]  And they've hit refineries.
[00:25:25]  They've hit oil platforms in the Gulf.
[00:25:27]  They hit just one or two ships was enough to close the Gulf.
[00:25:31]  They've hit massive oil refineries in Bahrain as well as today.
[00:25:36]  Pardon me.
[00:25:37]  Today they hit one in Oman, which is burning out of control.
[00:25:41]  I saw this morning.
[00:25:43]  The American Air Force hit, or maybe it was the Israelis bomb one of their salinization plants.
[00:25:51]  So then they bombed the UAE or was it Bahrain's salinization plant?
[00:25:55]  So, they're not, you know, luckily they evacuate all these American bases.
[00:26:01]  We still have very low casualties.
[00:26:04]  Even if you count the now expanded number of wounded is like 150 something.
[00:26:10]  They're still saying only seven dead, I believe, or was it Abe?
[00:26:13]  I think it's just seven dead.
[00:26:14]  But that's because they evacuated the bases out of there, you know, the people out of those bases for the most part anyway.
[00:26:22]  So thank goodness for that, that we don't have mass casualties here, but we still have, you know, massive damage against American imperial infrastructure throughout the region.
[00:26:31]  And, you know, when they, when you see the Saudis and Bahrainis and Emiratis complaining that I can't believe you pulled your anti-aircraft missiles out of here to move them to Israel, well, that's Americans on those bases who got their air cover pulled out of there to go to Israel instead.
[00:26:51]  It wasn't just the Bahrainis and the Emiratis.
[00:26:53]  It was our guys at those bases.
[00:26:56]  And they've also, and we don't know the extent of it because there's massive censorship in Israel.
[00:27:00]  They'll, you know, what they do, they'll let reporters show damage to civilian infrastructure or targets or collateral damage or whatever, but they won't show damage to military infrastructure, which of course skews the picture and makes it look like only innocent civilians are being killed and all that.
[00:27:18]  But supposedly the attacks on Israel are worse this time than they were in June.
[00:27:22]  I don't know the full extent of that.
[00:27:25]  And then I'm sorry because I'm rambling a bit, but the point, the real point being, I should make here to wrap up is that they really should not have done this.
[00:27:34]  They did not have a coherent plan to do this.
[00:27:36]  Donald Trump ignored every bit of this advice that was given to George W. Bush back then, and that George W. Bush went along with.
[00:27:44]  You know, Netanyahu tried to bully Obama into this too.
[00:27:47]  Obama for the same reasons says, man, this is biting off more than we can chew, more than we know what to do with.
[00:27:52]  And you can tell that at some point here, despite getting advice to the contrary, we know that they had even a national intelligence estimate.
[00:27:58]  People say, where the hell is Tulsi Gabbard on this?
[00:28:00]  Dude, apparently, they, I don't know, actually, her role in it, but the National Intelligence Council put out a secret report saying this isn't going to work.
[00:28:08]  You shouldn't do it.
[00:28:10]  The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff leaked all over the place, including the Wall Street Journal, that we're going to run out of anti-missile missiles before they run out of missiles.
[00:28:18]  And this is a real problem, and we shouldn't do it.
[00:28:20]  They did that before the war.
[00:28:21]  And you can tell at some point, Trump just said, it let's just do it, man.
[00:28:26]  Which is like George W. Bush, man.
[00:28:28]  Just like, close your eyes and hit the button and just hope it works out, man.
[00:28:31]  Don't, we're just, you know what we're going to do?
[00:28:33]  We're going to get started and then we're going to figure it out.
[00:28:36]  And that's why they're jumping all over the place with all their different rationalizations for how they want to do this.
[00:28:40]  They can't decide whether they're going to kill the new Ayatollah or the new Supreme Leader Khamenei or not or what.
[00:28:47]  They want to back the Kurds.
[00:28:48]  They want to back the Balukis or whatever dissident factions.

=== Pearl Harbor Sneak Attack (11:05) ===

[00:28:55]  None of that is materializing.
[00:28:56]  The popular uprising is not happening.
[00:29:00]  Well, it is.
[00:29:01]  Well, it kind of is, but not the one that they were hoping for.
[00:29:05]  Yeah, in Bahrain, there was one.
[00:29:08]  Did you see Bahrain where the majority Shiite population tried to rise up against their monarch on the event of Iran bombing?
[00:29:14]  Just like in the narrative from here.
[00:29:16]  All right, guys, let's take a moment and thank our sponsor for today's show, which is Van Man.
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[00:30:40]  I did see that, but I wasn't even referring to that.
[00:30:43]  I was just literally this morning, and this was for, I think, the second or third day in a row.
[00:30:51]  I don't know, dude, did you see the aerial, and these are not AI images, they were all verified.
[00:30:58]  The aerial pictures of the pro-regime demonstrations in Tehran.
[00:31:02]  I mean, dude, there must have been a million people in that crowd, certainly hundreds and hundreds of thousands of people.
[00:31:08]  And this is, and listen, you're more of an Iran expert than I am, but like, I know enough to know this is in Tehran.
[00:31:13]  This is in like the most liberal part of Iran.
[00:31:18]  This is the part where there's, if, if, you know, whenever you hear, which there is some degree of truth to, but when you'll hear the hawks say that, like, there is kind of like a tradition of liberalism in Iran that then also kind of lives next to this tradition of like more, you know, hardcore right-wing Islamist types.
[00:31:34]  And yes, it is true that you, when the Shah, when our puppet was in there for 25 years, you would see women in mini skirts in Tehran.
[00:31:41]  And for people who go there and they've done some guerrilla journalism, you know, even under the Ayatollah rule, there's still like underground nightclubs and there's girls who do go out.
[00:31:50]  That's this area.
[00:31:51]  That's where the city is.
[00:31:52]  That's where like the liberal people are.
[00:31:54]  And it's a city of, I think it's like nine and a half million people live in Tehran, something in that ballpark.
[00:32:00]  They got like a million people in the street.
[00:32:02]  They got like a ninth of the total population.
[00:32:05]  I'm just eyeballing the numbers, but if you look at those shots, it's certainly in the many hundreds of thousands of people that are out chanting death to America and long live their martyr, Ayatollah.
[00:32:16]  And crucially, those pictures are not AI.
[00:32:19]  And yesterday on the Twitters, everyone in the war party was going around attempting to debunk those pictures and claiming that they were either fake or that they were old.
[00:32:28]  They were from 2020.
[00:32:30]  But of course, Glenn Greenwald took up this jihad and showed it.
[00:32:33]  Like, no, you're wrong.
[00:32:34]  And Grok was saying, yeah, this picture is fake.
[00:32:36]  This is old.
[00:32:36]  This is from 2020.
[00:32:37]  And people treat Grok like it's God.
[00:32:40]  But it's it wrong all the time.
[00:32:41]  All the time.
[00:32:42]  And so there, this is, you know, verified pictures taken by New York Times freelancers in Iran who turned in those pictures.
[00:32:52]  So no reason to suspect they're fake whatsoever.
[00:32:54]  But there, you know, there are a lot of copes like that.
[00:32:56]  Dave, I'm sure you had the same experience where the massacre at the girls' school at the during this war, where, you know, in my mansions, I got people so married to the narrative that the Iranians did this themselves, either deliberately to make us look bad or it was an anti-aircraft missile, but they just don't know what they're doing.
[00:33:16]  And so their missile sucked and hit it accidentally or whatever.
[00:33:20]  And for days and days and days, they're coming at me about just what an absolute idiot and traitor and treasonist and pro-terrorist I am for thinking that it was the U.S. government that did it.
[00:33:32]  And of course, the Pentagon today, as though they didn't know immediately whether they had hit this building or not.
[00:33:39]  But we have to get for a few days.
[00:33:41]  But today they announced that, yes, of course, the DIA picked the target.
[00:33:44]  They say it was an accident from an old map or what.
[00:33:47]  So whatever.
[00:33:49]  Yeah, well, right.
[00:33:50]  I mean, no, it's really important you bring that up.
[00:33:54]  That was one of the things I was going to make sure to ask you about.
[00:33:57]  But I mean, the thing to me, I mean, look, like once it was clear, which wasn't clear initially, but once it became clear it got hit with a tomahawk, it was like, okay, well, that's like there's three parties here: Iran, Israel, and the United States of America.
[00:34:13]  And we're the ones with tomahawks.
[00:34:14]  So Trump is like, hey, any country with tomahawks might have done it.
[00:34:18]  Right.
[00:34:19]  Yeah, but yeah, right.
[00:34:20]  That's ridiculous.
[00:34:21]  And when he's cussing out the trash man and he's like, well, a lot of people are saying stuff when he's standing there in the middle of the street by himself.
[00:34:28]  Yeah, I mean, it's like, even when he was trying to make the thing where he was going, like, well, as you know, other countries have tomahawks too, and they could have maybe sold one to a red.
[00:34:36]  You're even like, okay, yeah, I guess that is theoretically possible, but like the overwhelming, you know what I'm saying?
[00:34:44]  Like, it's like, yeah, yes, like when I see my wife driving down my driveway in her car, it could be someone else with the same exact model car, but like the odds are it's the person who lives here in my house.
[00:34:55]  And really, we don't, U.S. doesn't share those tomahawks with anybody except the Brits and the Australians.
[00:35:00]  Yeah, the idea that one of them, one of them had, yeah, right.
[00:35:03]  Like one of them sold it to anyway.
[00:35:06]  But like, but I got to say, I mean, it does seem to me to be just up there with the one of the most truly despicable things that I've ever seen a president do.
[00:35:18]  And obviously, like it's like morally speaking, the murdering of a bunch of young children is the morally worst.
[00:35:26]  But the way for Donald Trump, just when no one else would even back him up in his own government, he just started saying it was the Iranians who did it.
[00:35:33]  And then, of course, as you know, that for those mentioned, I mean, some of them might be bots or whatever, but like, yeah, a lot of a lot of right-wingers will just regurgitate whatever Trump tells them, even though they sit there and go, oh, Mr. Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, he just said it was the Iranians.
[00:35:47]  And Pete Hegseth goes, we're investigating it because he doesn't act.
[00:35:50]  Central Command came out and went, it'd be inappropriate to comment on this.
[00:35:53]  We're investigating.
[00:35:54]  Like no one would back him up on this.
[00:35:56]  He just said it was them.
[00:35:58]  It's like, no, no, actually, what happened is you just murdered a whole bunch of like eight-year-old girls, man.
[00:36:04]  Like it just the most disgusting goddamn thing.
[00:36:07]  And, you know, they're saying the report you were referring to that the New York Times put out just a few hours ago.
[00:36:14]  You know, they're saying it was an accident.
[00:36:16]  And like, okay, you know, I would, even Scott, as fierce critics as we are of this, of, of the regime in DC, I would still want to believe that, that like they weren't intentionally trying to kill the children of like some IRGC or whatever.
[00:36:36]  But honestly, I mean, really, when we're talking about it, the bottom line here is like, none of that really matters.
[00:36:43]  It just doesn't really matter.
[00:36:45]  In fact, it wouldn't really have mattered if it was an Iranian missile that accidentally went off and did this.
[00:36:49]  The thing is, man, you launch a war of choice and you start dropping bombs on densely populated cities.
[00:36:56]  And when a bunch of kids die as a result to a fucking war of choice, a war of aggression, that's on you.
[00:37:02]  Like Benjamin Netanyahu, first and foremost, Donald Trump.
[00:37:06]  Second, Benjamin Netanyahu.
[00:37:09]  Third, after that, every goddamn member of this administration who fucking, you know, even if Tulsi Gabber did warn, she hasn't resigned and discussed.
[00:37:16]  JD Vance hasn't resigned and discussed.
[00:37:18]  That's enough for me to say you're guilty too.
[00:37:20]  You guys all just murdered 175 little girls and then had fucking sat there while they lied about it.
[00:37:26]  And think about what that means to them.
[00:37:28]  I mean, this is an Oklahoma City bombing worth of casualties.
[00:37:32]  Only if the Oklahoma building, the Murray building had been all daycare.
[00:37:36]  Right.
[00:37:36]  And already the fact that there was a daycare in that building was just huge.
[00:37:40]  I forget the exact number.
[00:37:41]  I believe it was 20-something, you know, children were killed in that thing.
[00:37:45]  And that made that, I mean, September 11th and everything since has kind of all washed that away.
[00:37:50]  And whatever a lot of people listen to this, maybe we're too young to remember.
[00:37:52]  Let me tell you, the Oklahoma bombing was the biggest deal in the world, man.
[00:37:56]  It was the biggest massacre in America since Second Wounded Knee.
[00:37:59]  You know, it was worse than Waco by double.
[00:38:03]  And it was just a catastrophe, man.
[00:38:05]  And, and then, and also, you know, think about the Pearl Harbor attack, the sneak attack there.
[00:38:12]  What if they had hit a girls' school and the Japanese had killed 168, 175 little girls at a school?
[00:38:19]  And that was part of the story of Pearl Harbor.
[00:38:21]  When FDR gave his Day of Infamy speech the next day, he mentioned, oh, yeah, and they killed 175 little girls at their school in their sneak surprise attack.
[00:38:32]  That would still be a part of the Pearl Harbor story.
[00:38:36]  It would be in the, you know, a major aspect of the Cuba Gooding Jr. movie, right?
[00:38:42]  And it would be a major part of the way that we tell that story 85 years later.
[00:38:48]  We still haven't forgotten Pearl Harbor.
[00:38:49]  It's still the biggest deal in the world here.
[00:38:52]  You know, it's, it's marked.
[00:38:54]  I mean, not everybody.
[00:38:55]  People justify using atomic bombs and firebombing cities based on Pearl Harbor still to this day.
[00:39:02]  A lot of people.
[00:39:04]  Yeah, and it was virtually all combatants who were killed in that thing, you know, as sad as it was.
[00:39:08]  Yeah, yeah, yeah.
[00:39:09]  They were by their own commander in chief to be sacrificed as they were still.
[00:39:13]  But yeah, you're right.
[00:39:14]  That was how they justified every bit of their war crimes against that country in the aftermath.
[00:39:19]  And just imagine.
[00:39:20]  I mean, I don't know, like, it's like when Daryl Cooper talks about the Russians and he's like, I don't know how they're ever going to get over this in 500 years, what we've done to them here.
[00:39:28]  This is just, god dang it.
[00:39:30]  It's the same thing here.
[00:39:31]  Like you, yeah, these are some big things you can't take back.
[00:39:35]  That time you started a surprise sneak attack in the middle of negotiations on false pretenses for a treacherous, completely unworthy third nation and killed almost 200 little girls on the like opening night.
[00:39:53]  Jesus, man.
[00:39:55]  And then, and then, and also, I mean, look in the guess next morning.
[00:39:59]  You know what I mean?

=== Potential Holy War Catastrophe (11:19) ===

[00:40:00]  Well, and even in the what I guess now seems to be the Israeli strike that killed the Ayatollah.
[00:40:08]  I mean, again, just like, it seems like no one, I mean, you know, it's, it's so, I don't know, man.
[00:40:15]  It's so weird for me because like the knock on me, essentially after the last like year that I've had, the only knock or whatever seems to be the Douglas Murray thing.
[00:40:26]  You're not an expert.
[00:40:27]  You're just a comedian.
[00:40:29]  Like, this is ridiculous, which like is fair enough.
[00:40:32]  Like that is true about me, you know?
[00:40:34]  But like the thing is that the entire expert class, you see no, like there's no wisdom.
[00:40:42]  There's nobody who goes, you know, yeah, like this, you know, murdering an Ayatollah.
[00:40:48]  Ayatollah.
[00:40:50]  Oh, that's a pretty important thing to Shiite Muslims.
[00:40:54]  Oh, and you murdered his whole family with him, including like a baby.
[00:40:58]  Like that, like as if that somehow, even in that strike, even not in the little girls one, were supposed to like be like, okay, well, that one was okay.
[00:41:08]  It's okay that his family members get murdered with him.
[00:41:11]  And as you were saying and channeling Daryl's point there, you're just like, yo, that is, that is some toothpaste you can't put back in a tube, man.
[00:41:20]  And that is, you got to think about this.
[00:41:22]  Not that you can psychoanalyze perfectly any of these leaders, but the new Ayatollah, that is the world that he's coming into, right?
[00:41:30]  Like he's in power now, and his family members have just been murdered by the governments that you're at war with.
[00:41:38]  This is, I don't know, just so, so incredibly dangerous just to maybe advance the Greater Israel project a bit.
[00:41:46]  Seems quite a calculation.
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[00:42:45]  All right, let's get back into the show.
[00:42:47]  Well, look, I'll tell you, man, I'm really worried about the potential here.
[00:42:53]  And I'm not like predicting this.
[00:42:55]  I don't know how to put a Measure on how likely it is exactly or what, but there is a potential here for total catastrophe in the form of Ayatollah Sistani or similar declaring a holy war against the West, against the United States and Israel together.
[00:43:13]  You know, Bin Laden did not have a religious rank, he had respect because he'd been wounded in battle and slept on the floor of the cave with the boys and things like that.
[00:43:21]  And so people paid him, you know, he's like a mafia boss.
[00:43:24]  He was the boss of a crime syndicate where he had like this high stature that people respected and people would do what he said, you know, kind of thing.
[00:43:33]  But he was not some kind of supreme unified religious leader of Sunni or Wahhabi Salafi Muslims.
[00:43:41]  It was a political thing.
[00:43:43]  Ayatollah Sistani could say, if you believe in God, you have to fight.
[00:43:51]  And there would be potentially tens of millions of people at war with the United States, and including and the American targets in the West.
[00:44:02]  And as we've talked about before, and presumably your entire audience has discussed with their friends in their living rooms or in their pickup trucks before America, the world is lousy with soft targets, man.
[00:44:16]  If we're at war against legions of terrorists, then they can do significant damage.
[00:44:23]  Now, I don't know how many Shiite Muslims are in America or how loyal to the commands of the Ayatollah they may or may not be.
[00:44:31]  But on the margin, there's probably some.
[00:44:35]  And, you know, speaking of that first day when they killed those little girls on that first day that, you know, they started on a Friday night, Saturday night, a Senegalese American here in Austin grabbed his rifle and went down to 6th Street and killed three people and wounded 15 more before he was stopped and killed.
[00:44:55]  And I mean, hell, dude, I didn't even know they had Shiites in Senegal.
[00:44:59]  What do I know?
[00:45:01]  And, but this was just, there's no reason in the world to think that anyone made him do this.
[00:45:06]  He decided he wanted to do this.
[00:45:08]  He was going to, you know, play a walk-on part in the war, right?
[00:45:12]  It's exactly what he did.
[00:45:14]  And any asshole can do that.
[00:45:16]  Anyone can start a forest fire.
[00:45:19]  Anyone can hijack a gasoline truck and crash it into some people, you know, standing outside somewhere.
[00:45:25]  Anybody could take a rifle to this side of the security line at the airport.
[00:45:30]  I mean, there's a million of them, and anybody can think of them.
[00:45:33]  You could take a private plane and crash it into a nuclear cooling tower.
[00:45:38]  How about that one?
[00:45:40]  You know, in the northeast, there, you look out the window of a plane, you can see them everywhere, those nuclear power plants.
[00:45:44]  You just fly by sight into one of them.
[00:45:48]  And so, and I hate like, you know, piling on with the scaremongering where you always hear these kind of tropes from the right-wingers that, oh, Hezbollah has sleeper cells in America and all this.
[00:45:59]  Well, you know, they could.
[00:46:01]  And Hezbollah and, you know, the IRGC and the Quds force and all of that, like they are an organized state force, you know, I mean, Hezbollah is sort of the Iran's 51st state there in southern Lebanon.
[00:46:15]  And, you know, these guys wouldn't even necessarily have to have ever been sent here to be sleepers, other than just de facto that they decide that they want to take part now.
[00:46:27]  And this is just extremely dangerous.
[00:46:30]  Our government is putting us in so much jeopardy here.
[00:46:33]  And, you know, there's already been fighting at the green zone in Baghdad.
[00:46:36]  There's been strikes on American bases, apparently not just from Iran, but from Iraqi Hezbollah, Khatib Hezbollah, against American targets in Irbal.
[00:46:46]  We could have a real fight.
[00:46:48]  Hell, there could be a coup in Iraq where harder line pro-Iran forces take power when, you know, it's already Iran's friends there, but you could have real Iranian puppets take over in Baghdad and could cause, you know, major trouble for the United States there.
[00:47:02]  And I don't know, man.
[00:47:04]  Shiite Muslims are a major are a minority in the world, but they're about 50-50 in the Middle East.
[00:47:09]  You know, there's still tens of millions of them.
[00:47:12]  And if they're, you know, and see, Sunnis. sort of, they pick their own Imam, right?
[00:47:17]  Like a Protestant Christian church.
[00:47:19]  They just kind of have their own reverend or whatever.
[00:47:21]  But the Shiites are all organized like the Catholics in these hierarchies.
[00:47:26]  And there's just a few Ayatollahs.
[00:47:27]  And Sistani in Iraq, he's the guy that David Wormzer wanted to tell Hezbollah to stop being friends with Iran in a clean break, Dave.
[00:47:36]  He's the most influential Ayatollah in the world.
[00:47:38]  He already had a higher religious rank than Khamenei ever had.
[00:47:42]  And so the potential that he has is like, you know, lightning from the emperor's fingers, man.
[00:47:48]  He wants to use it.
[00:47:50]  You know, I just, you know, I still, I guess I maintain like hope in the best case scenario here, which is that essentially Donald Trump will call this quits in a few days.
[00:48:06]  And that, you know, he will basically just start looking at how much damage we're taking, how much this is affecting markets, his political career and all that.
[00:48:15]  I mean, I, as I've said, I've been on the record for this many times.
[00:48:18]  I think he's already destroyed his presidency.
[00:48:20]  I just don't like this is the best case scenario is that Donald Trump just calls it quits and then starts saying how amazing it was and how tremendous it was.
[00:48:31]  I just don't see, you know, I don't know.
[00:48:35]  Obviously, Donald Trump has, he's got a track record of being the most hawkish president on Iran while also, you know, having a track record of rhetorically talking about how we would never go to war with Iran and what a disaster it would be and how these regime change wars are terrible.
[00:48:55]  But, well, he has, there's been several points between Donald Trump's first term and then including the 12-day war, where he kind of got us into a situation, but then took the off-ramp when he had it.
[00:49:09]  And there is, you know, like when they shot down that drone, he didn't respond, even though people were trying to get him to after they responded to him killing Salmani, that he did, he took the off-ramp there.
[00:49:23]  He took the off-ramp after the 12-day war.
[00:49:25]  There was good reporting that he was kind of trying to take an off-ramp after day one of this thing, and that through the Italian negotiators, they reached out to offer a ceasefire after they killed the strike.
[00:49:34]  And the Iranians said, no, we're not doing it.
[00:49:36]  So like the Iranians now seem to be like, the calculation has changed, that he's now, he's changed the incentive structure for Iranian self-preservation, whereas before their calculation reasonably was we can't touch the Americans because then that'll kick off a war.
[00:49:52]  Now their calculation also reasonably is we can't not touch the Americans or they're going to keep doing this to us forever.
[00:49:59]  We got to give them a bloody nose here.
[00:50:01]  That being said, Donald Trump could just leave, even if Iran isn't going to negotiate with them.
[00:50:06]  But honestly, Scott, after all this stuff, I mean, look, there's been like 17 different BS justifications for this war, but a big one of them was they killed 30,000 of their own people and we're going to liberate the people.
[00:50:22]  And Donald Trump unzipped his fly and put his two balls all the way out there on the table when he announced with a baseball hat and no tie on that this is a regime change.
[00:50:34]  I don't know, dude.
[00:50:36]  Like, what do you think?
[00:50:37]  Like, is how is that possibly?
[00:50:39]  How could that even possibly work?
[00:50:40]  If he just comes back now and you go, dude, you just blew like probably over $10 billion at this point already.
[00:50:49]  I saw a congressional estimate that said it was like $5.6 billion in munitions already.
[00:50:57]  I don't think they were.
[00:50:58]  Yeah, that was in the first few days.
[00:51:00]  And I don't even think that counted all the military hardware they moved around in order to get there.
[00:51:04]  And it didn't count any of the damage to any of our bases or targets like that or the just the damage of like the lack of ships going through the Strait of Hormuz just for 10 days has caused.
[00:51:15]  Yeah, yeah.
[00:51:15]  Like it's like, so this is probably like in the tens of billions of dollars of damage.

=== Stop Eating Regular Chips (02:20) ===

[00:51:19]  You killed, it's got to be over a thousand at this point.
[00:51:23]  The last estimate I saw was over a thousand.
[00:51:25]  It's probably going to come out to be higher than that.
[00:51:27]  Iranians dead.
[00:51:28]  We don't know how many people died in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, but presumably some people died there.
[00:51:33]  And we lost, you know, we got what the latest number is, whatever you said, seven dead, 150 wounded, something like that.
[00:51:39]  This isn't Venezuela, in other words.
[00:51:42]  He can't just spin this.
[00:51:43]  He can't just come home and spin this as like clean and done.
[00:51:47]  And that was that.
[00:51:48]  And so the fact that he can't come back and spin it that way, that creates an incentive structure for us to not get the best case scenario out of this and for them to actually do what they were floating out about to September or something like that, really just try to decimate the regime.
[00:52:06]  And of course, it seems like that is certainly the Israeli goal in this, that this isn't a regime change, a la Iraq, Afghanistan.
[00:52:14]  This is a regime collapse, a la Libya, Syria.
[00:52:19]  All right, guys, let's take a moment and thank our sponsor for today's show, which is Massa Chips.
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[00:53:36]  All right, let's get back into the show.
[00:53:39]  Yeah.

=== Exiles Convincing America To War (15:10) ===

[00:53:40]  Well, you know, in Libya and Syria, they had terrorists on the ground to support.
[00:53:44]  And I think in this case, they really don't.
[00:53:47]  No, they've talked about bringing in PJ.
[00:53:49]  They dropped the J. I'm not sure why, but it's the party for a free life in Iranian Kurdistan is the group.
[00:53:56]  They're communists.
[00:53:56]  They're, you know, like the Turkish PKK or the Syrian YPG.
[00:54:02]  You know, I read a couple of stories about American talks with Barzani and Talibani, who are the main gangster leaders in Iraqi Kurdistan.
[00:54:13]  They weren't even asking the Peshmerga to join.
[00:54:15]  They were just asking them to allow the communists to use their area as a staging base and putting pressure on them.
[00:54:21]  And that all fell apart, went nowhere.
[00:54:23]  You know, you have Jandala, the Baluki suicide bombers from 15 years ago or whatever, but they're no force.
[00:54:29]  And, you know, apparently they haven't done anything.
[00:54:34]  There hadn't even been any attacks by ISIS, who they do like attacking inside Iran from time to time.
[00:54:40]  There hadn't been anything like that.
[00:54:42]  So, you know, in the case of Libya, Libya was created not even after World War I.
[00:54:48]  It was created after World War II.
[00:54:49]  And it had always been these two or three major kingdoms and had been cobbled together by Gaddafi's predecessor.
[00:54:57]  And then he took power himself.
[00:54:58]  He was the second leader of the new country.
[00:55:00]  And so when America took sides there, it was basically people from the far east of the country rising up and, you know, aging very much a geographical battle of East versus West and moving westward,
[00:55:15]  where it made logistical sense, operational sense for not strategic, but operational sense for American planes to fly as their air cover and help them advance and take town after town after town as they advanced to the west of the country and eventually sacked Tripoli, right?
[00:55:34]  There's just nothing like that here.
[00:55:35]  And nobody believes that there is a force on the ground that they can do this with.
[00:55:40]  I actually did LOL this morning when I read in the Jerusalem Post that the Shah, Reza Pahlavi III or whatever, says, yeah, well, this is my final call for everybody to rise up and prepare for my arrival.
[00:55:53]  Yeah, right, dude.
[00:55:54]  They parachute him and all his people in there.
[00:55:56]  They're going to get mowed down and they would have to parachute them in there.
[00:55:59]  How else are they even going to get them in there?
[00:56:01]  They couldn't drive them in from any border or any shore.
[00:56:04]  So they would have to parachute them in and then they would immediately be killed.
[00:56:08]  And so they have, you know, no solution really whatsoever to enforce.
[00:56:14]  You know, I talked with Robert Pate the other day, who famously wrote those books about why people become suicide bombers.
[00:56:20]  It's the foreign occupation.
[00:56:21]  He also is an expert on why air power doesn't work alone anyway.
[00:56:26]  And obviously air power is important, but you have to have a hammer and an anvil.
[00:56:30]  And I knew an old Marine back in the 1990s taught me that, listen, if your men are not standing on street corners with their combat boots on the ground holding rifles, then you do not control that territory, period.
[00:56:45]  That's who controls the territory, whose soldiers can stand around there.
[00:56:51]  And that ain't ever going to be America in Tehran.
[00:56:55]  And so, yeah, again, they, they talked Trump into somehow, don't worry, man, they're just, remember, I'm sure you've heard Netanyahu say this a thousand times.
[00:57:03]  They're just waiting for somebody to hit him and they'll just fall right over and all the people just rise up and it'll be great.
[00:57:08]  But like, nah, there's no real reason to believe that.
[00:57:11]  Yeah, that's right.
[00:57:12]  And I got to say, there's a real, there's this crazy goddamn dynamic of like where America, like the rough broad strokes deal of America for many years, what kind of built modern America as we know it is that like European refugees could escape tyranny and then come over here and hope for like a better life with more opportunity and more liberty.
[00:57:35]  And somehow this idea got converted into, oh, you, you can come to America and then convince us to go to war with the country that you're from to, you know what I mean, like free your, liberate your people over there.
[00:57:49]  Like the deal was always like, no, we were just, we were supposed to try to have some liberty over here.
[00:57:52]  We're not doing that great at that.
[00:57:55]  But I do think there's this, you know, Sager and Jetty, who's fantastic.
[00:57:59]  I love that guy.
[00:58:00]  Good friend.
[00:58:02]  He's a, he's been making this point a lot on breaking points.
[00:58:04]  And I think it's a really like astute one where there's this really like unholy alliance between the military industrial complex and then their war hawks and then the like diaspora people, you know, and there's this real problem.
[00:58:21]  You know, just if you've read enough about like just the terror wars, you know, whether it's Chalabi, or in this case, if it's the Shah's son or whatever, where you, or just the people I'm arguing with on Piers Morgan, some Iranian girl who's talking about Iran, who lives in Brooklyn, you know what I mean?
[00:58:36]  Who's lived there her whole life?
[00:58:38]  These are the most disconnected people from Iran.
[00:58:41]  They don't like, it's, they, they, um, like they speak for a sliver of the population or what they told their kids about Iran.
[00:58:50]  You know what I mean?
[00:58:51]  And then they have this view.
[00:58:53]  And I've just learned a long time ago to like, never trust any of that shit, man.
[00:58:57]  Like, because for a few different reasons.
[00:58:59]  Number one, you don't live there.
[00:59:01]  You don't actually know what's going on any more than I know what's going on.
[00:59:04]  Like it's be me talking about like Germany because my grandfather lived there.
[00:59:09]  But I don't know.
[00:59:10]  That was 100 years ago.
[00:59:12]  And it's like, I've never been there.
[00:59:15]  But then also, you know, the people obviously like if you get people who flee from a regime, that is a contaminated sample size, sample of a study, right?
[00:59:26]  Like these are people who didn't like that regime.
[00:59:28]  And so of course they like to imagine that that's the dominant sentiment in the same way that we like to imagine that everyone who supported Donald Trump was against all these wars.
[00:59:37]  But no, that's not actually everyone.
[00:59:39]  That's a percentage.
[00:59:41]  But then they all convince you that, oh, but everybody's going to love you if you do this.
[00:59:47]  And the problem is that, you know, I remember people used to point out that how unpopular Saddam Hussein was.
[00:59:53]  Yeah.
[00:59:53]  The people don't actually love that.
[00:59:54]  And that's totally true, right?
[00:59:56]  Saddam Hussein was wildly unpopular in his country.
[00:59:58]  This country is 60% Shiites.
[01:00:00]  They didn't support Saddam Hussein, but that's not really the fucking issue now, is it?
[01:00:05]  The issue, the real question is, how are they going to respond when you kill 175 of their little girls?
[01:00:12]  And then the other issue is like, okay, even if it's true that there's not a majority support, by the way, there's not majority support anywhere for anything that any government does.
[01:00:22]  Democracy is all a big fucking illusion.
[01:00:25]  They had a study.
[01:00:25]  What was it?
[01:00:26]  It was in Princeton, I think, had that study where they concluded that we are an oligarchy because they literally, they like scientifically, it was a peer-reviewed study.
[01:00:34]  They scientifically went through it and they go, the way the public feels about policy has no impact on policy.
[01:00:41]  It's just not, it doesn't matter.
[01:00:42]  Obama says we're going to close Guantanamo Bay.
[01:00:44]  You go, I think I'll vote for that guy who's going to close Guantanamo Bay.
[01:00:47]  Doesn't.
[01:00:49]  Next up is, well, do you want Mitt Romney?
[01:00:51]  Okay.
[01:00:52]  So that's your only choice.
[01:00:53]  There's no choice in this matter.
[01:00:55]  But so then you also have the real dynamic here that like, even if it's not a majority who supports the Ayatollah, 92 million people in a country, what percentage do?
[01:01:06]  If it's 10%, that's a healthy insurgency you got on your hands if the regime falls or people who are going to fight back before the regime falls.
[01:01:15]  And so these you were making, I'm sorry, because I don't think I addressed this point earlier that you asked me about the popular opinion there that yes, it's true that you have liberals in the big cities, but that is not the case of the population of the country.
[01:01:28]  It's just the same as here out in the countryside or even in the suburbs, people vote right wing.
[01:01:33]  And, you know, I'll never forget in July 2005, George W. Bush warned the people of Iran, you better not vote for the right winger in the election tomorrow.
[01:01:43]  And then the next day, they all voted for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
[01:01:46]  And that was where he came from.
[01:01:48]  And Bush helped him win.
[01:01:50]  And it was like widely agreed at the time that he got the Bush bump of 5% when he was, you know, when the people were warned.
[01:01:58]  And I guess he would have won anyway.
[01:01:59]  But it's like, yeah, out in the countryside, people are religious.
[01:02:02]  Out in the countryside, people are conservative.
[01:02:04]  Out in the countryside, people are patriotic.
[01:02:07]  Out in the countryside, no, they don't favor the North Americans and the fucking Israelis coming and bombing them to liberty.
[01:02:13]  Are you kidding me?
[01:02:14]  That's completely stupid.
[01:02:16]  Think how stupid you got to be to think that, oh, yeah, no, that actually could work.
[01:02:20]  And I'm pretty sure that that's what's going on here.
[01:02:23]  You know, and on the exiles, real quick, I'll refer your audience.
[01:02:27]  You can find this real easily because it's like in a lot of quotable websites and whatever.
[01:02:31]  They'll have a quote of Machiavelli from the prince warning the prince, do not listen to exiles when they tell you and agitate against their former country.
[01:02:42]  Because the thing is, one, they don't really know anything.
[01:02:45]  And two, they want to believe a lot of things and they want you to believe a lot of things, true and untrue, to get you to do what they want.
[01:02:54]  And so you cannot trust their point of view.
[01:02:57]  And the Iraq example is the best one because you had, you know, Trotskyite intellectuals like what's his name, Makia.
[01:03:05]  And then you had the Iraqi National Congress, which was supported by Tehran, led by the Iraqi Shiite exile, Ahmed Chalabi, and all of his merry men.
[01:03:17]  And they were the ones who, one, promised that, oh man, it's going to be great.
[01:03:21]  The people of Iraq can't wait until you invade.
[01:03:24]  And two, they were the ones who supplied most of the lies about the weapons of mass destruction that they funneled through the Office of Special Plans and the Pentagon to the vice president's office, the White House, and the media to push us into that war.
[01:03:36]  Mobile biological weapons labs and warehouses full of weapons of mass destruction and whatever it is you need.
[01:03:43]  We've got Iraqi exiles here to tell you.
[01:03:45]  That's right.
[01:03:45]  So now you've got remote control planes going to spray you with germs, whatever it is that you need to be told to get the American people to go for this.
[01:03:53]  And it's, you know, you bring it up and it's something that people don't really talk about nearly enough, but this is just completely scandalous that the United States is used this way.
[01:04:05]  And our government apparently doesn't mind being used this way for expatriates from other countries to come and, you know, be essentially pick themselves, right?
[01:04:15]  Invite themselves to be our chosen sock puppets when we overthrow their regimes and install them in power instead.
[01:04:21]  It's completely crazy.
[01:04:23]  And what the hell has become of us that this is what our country is good for and is to be used for in the eyes of so many people in the world.
[01:04:31]  It's sick, man.
[01:04:33]  Yeah, no, that's that's absolutely right.
[01:04:34]  And of course, there's all types.
[01:04:36]  I mean, my, you know, I, my understanding of uh Chalabi was like from what I've read about it is my, the, the read I got on him was essentially that he was just a con man.
[01:04:46]  Like, I don't, you know what I mean?
[01:04:47]  Like he was, he got like a hero in error.
[01:04:50]  Yeah, yeah, right.
[01:04:51]  Well, he, what is he got a, was it in Lebanon?
[01:04:54]  He got like these banking charges in Jordan.
[01:04:58]  I'm sorry, that's right.
[01:04:58]  It was in Jordan that he got like, they basically like raised reserve requirements and then were like auditing the banks.
[01:05:04]  And then they found out he didn't have any of the reserve, like he was just like got all types of like fraud trouble and shit like that.
[01:05:10]  And it was like, of course, once you start saying, well, I'm, you're going to get the United States of America to put you in the seat of power.
[01:05:16]  Well, then you've got a little bit of a conflict of interest.
[01:05:19]  That's a mighty big incentive for a lot of people to want to go along with that.
[01:05:23]  But yeah, I mean, look, I think like one of almost like the knocks that people will have on guys like me and you is they'll go, oh my God, not everything is the war in Iraq.
[01:05:34]  Not everything has to be, you know, you can't like, and you guys are always living, you know, back in 2003 or whatever.
[01:05:41]  And it's like, well, look, man, there were lessons that were learned from these things.
[01:05:47]  And a lot of these lessons are like, like Iraq turned into a catastrophe for reasons, for reasons that were predictable, reasons that were predictable by Dick Cheney, who explained very clearly himself a few years prior what would happen if we created that quagmire.
[01:06:06]  And like, as I was making this point on the show the other day, it's like, like this point about exiles, this is a common theme amongst exiles.
[01:06:13]  This point about blowback.
[01:06:15]  It's a common theme.
[01:06:17]  You know what I mean?
[01:06:18]  Like, and the truth is that there is a, there's, it's not, this is the way I said it the other day.
[01:06:24]  It's not like when you, when you collapse a regime and, or, or you overthrow a regime and something bad comes next, something worse comes next.
[01:06:33]  That's not just like, um, it's not like in the war on terrorism, it's like, oh, we just, we flipped a coin six times and it landed on tails six times.
[01:06:43]  But, you know, this next time it's still a 50-50.
[01:06:45]  It's like, no, that happens for reasons because you're going to start creating this amount of bloodshed.
[01:06:50]  You're going to create this amount of violence.
[01:06:53]  Who the hell is going to wrestle power in that environment?
[01:06:56]  Gandhi?
[01:06:57]  Like, who, you know, what are the odds that the person who comes away, who the people end up rallying around is like the calmer, rational guy?
[01:07:05]  What are the odds of the power?
[01:07:07]  It's so unlikely.
[01:07:08]  Yeah.
[01:07:08]  In the Obama years, you know, Samantha Power about Libya, or maybe after the Obama years, was asked, well, man, you destroyed Libya.
[01:07:15]  Great going, lady.
[01:07:16]  You know, she goes, well, look, it's not our fault that we didn't have a crystal ball to see what was going to happen.
[01:07:22]  It's like, yeah, it is your fault that you launched an aggressive war without a crystal ball to know what would happen.
[01:07:30]  And so, yeah.
[01:07:31]  And here's a charity that I did on the Philip Drew show, the weekend interview show back.
[01:07:36]  It was April 12th, 2003, three days after they pulled down the statue of Saddam in Baghdad.
[01:07:41]  And I interviewed Alan Bach about it.
[01:07:43]  And he said, you know, he quoted Alvis Huxley.
[01:07:46]  And the quote was that violent and destructive means determine violent and destructive ends.
[01:07:54]  Such a great quote.
[01:07:56]  You know, you should not be surprised.
[01:07:57]  And I have to admit too, to you, dude, like as silly as this is, at the start of saying, and, you know, not like I ever uttered the wrong thing out loud about it or whatever, but there's a part of me that does think that like, wow, I wonder if this is the one that will work out.
[01:08:14]  You know what I mean?
[01:08:15]  They're batting zero here.
[01:08:17]  All these wars have been total catastrophes.
[01:08:20]  And people are always going, what would it take for you to admit that like we have a way better circumstance in the post-Ayatollah regime in Iran, dude, and whatever?
[01:08:28]  Like, well, we sure ain't to that better circumstance yet.
[01:08:32]  But part of me has to wonder like, geez, maybe this is the one.
[01:08:36]  And then, no, of course not.
[01:08:37]  They go into the first thing they do is bomb a school full of little kids.
[01:08:41]  The second thing they do is go, ah, geez, I guess Ayatollah's son is the new Ayatollah.
[01:08:46]  And then I got to wedge this one in here somewhere.
[01:08:49]  And people double check me on this.

=== Major Defections In Polls (05:36) ===

[01:08:50]  I beg you to.
[01:08:51]  Go read the Wall Street Journal and you'll have to click four or five different ones to see because sometimes they're more just objective assessments of things.
[01:08:59]  But you will find in there in the Wall Street Journal, just type in Khomeini, not Khomeine, Khomeini, grandson at the Wall Street Journal.
[01:09:09]  And you'll see where administration officials are saying they preferred the previous Ayatollah's grandson to the last Ayatollah's son.
[01:09:18]  That was who they thought might be a good moderate to take over the new government in Iran, which just goes to show these people have no idea what they're doing at all.
[01:09:27]  They're just throwing darts in the dark.
[01:09:30]  A massive country the size of a couple of Texases is like mountains and armed men.
[01:09:36]  Even like your crystal ball line, not to be confused with crystal ball of breaking points.
[01:09:42]  I mentioned Seger a second ago.
[01:09:45]  It's like, yeah, dude, you launch a war of choice, a war of aggression.
[01:09:50]  Not only do you not have a crystal ball, you're openly admitting you don't even have a plan.
[01:09:54]  You don't even have like a, it's not even like they're going, this is a long shot, but here's our plan.
[01:09:59]  You know what I mean?
[01:10:00]  They have nothing.
[01:10:00]  They're all on record.
[01:10:02]  We just have nothing.
[01:10:03]  I mean, this is, I got to wrap up here, Scott, but this, this is to me, and look, I'm like with you, would people say that if they go, what result would make you say, oh, this worked out?
[01:10:15]  Like, I don't know if it worked out.
[01:10:17]  I'd acknowledge that it worked out.
[01:10:19]  I don't know.
[01:10:19]  If I, if, if literally, they went in there and the people rose up and a reasonable, you know, liberal, and I mean, this in the classical sense of the word, like a reasonable, somebody who, you know, reasonable rose up and things were just much better and the region was calmed down.
[01:10:32]  I'd go, ah, shit.
[01:10:33]  You know, you launched seven wars of choice.
[01:10:36]  Six of them were catastrophes.
[01:10:38]  You fucking got one at the end.
[01:10:39]  Yeah, I still don't think it's a wise policy.
[01:10:42]  I don't think it's worth the risk.
[01:10:43]  I don't think America should be doing this on moral and philosophical grounds, but I'll admit if it worked out, it worked out.
[01:10:49]  But like, when the fuck do you admit that you don't ever get to open your mouth again in public?
[01:10:55]  Would we need one more catastrophe and then you'll do it?
[01:10:58]  I mean, it's just too crazy.
[01:10:59]  But I will say this, and then I'll give you the last word.
[01:11:04]  I really do feel like this by quite a long shot.
[01:11:07]  I think that of all the wars that I've been alive for, which goes back to the Persian Gulf war or whatever, this is the worst, the worst, most incoherent sales pitch for any of them.
[01:11:24]  Like literally for any of them.
[01:11:26]  I mean, even if you go like, look, in Iraq, obviously they had weapons of mass destruction.
[01:11:32]  Okay.
[01:11:32]  If that were true, okay, you could kind of see where if it were true that he was friends with Osama bin Laden and he was developing nukes or had nukes or whatever.
[01:11:40]  And right after 9-11, okay, at least you could understand that.
[01:11:43]  Gaddafi is about to go genocidal.
[01:11:45]  Okay.
[01:11:45]  I mean, like, all these things are lies, but at least they're plausible.
[01:11:48]  You know, Assad is using chemical weapons on his own people, whatever, you know, all this bullshit.
[01:11:53]  This is like, they're not even trying.
[01:11:57]  It's, it's, it's, it's not a war, but we've been at war for 47 years.
[01:12:02]  Remember our Marines in the 80s or their nuclear ambitions, which we totally obliterated six months ago, but they could have had a nuke in a week.
[01:12:11]  Uh, you know, like just everything about this is like just so insane, dude.
[01:12:16]  Yeah.
[01:12:17]  I know.
[01:12:18]  Um, well, and look, and I think people are noticing that.
[01:12:21]  I know the polls say Republican voters support their president.
[01:12:24]  No, dude, that's MAGA, MAGA Republican voters.
[01:12:28]  And we define MAGA as the people who still support Donald Trump.
[01:12:32]  And 100% of the people who support this support this.
[01:12:35]  Yeah.
[01:12:36]  Yeah.
[01:12:37]  The coalition, the MAGA Republicans, how many MAGA Republicans are there now compared to a year and a half ago?
[01:12:44]  I saw one poll recently that said today, if you could vote again for Kamala Harris versus Donald Trump, she was up almost 10 points, dude.
[01:12:53]  I think she was up nine points.
[01:12:55]  Now, I'm not saying like maybe that wouldn't be exactly right, but she was behind in the polls when the actual election happened.
[01:13:01]  So anyway, sorry.
[01:13:02]  Major defections, yeah, for sure.
[01:13:05]  And look, yes, because of the total incoherence of their argument, because it's so obvious, it's 100 times more obvious than it was 25 years ago about the role of Israel in pushing and all that.
[01:13:18]  And so, yeah, I think, you know, public opinion is going to be, you know, strong, you know, in our favor here.
[01:13:26]  And hopefully we'll push to have this thing, you know, wrapped up sooner than later.
[01:13:30]  As you said, the Iranians have a vote in that.
[01:13:32]  They might keep fighting.
[01:13:33]  Donald Trump tries to back out.
[01:13:34]  They might not let him for a while.
[01:13:36]  And I don't know how that might work or what, but it is a hell of a thing, man.
[01:13:41]  And I hate to say I told you so, but I, and, and I hate to say also that I tried for 20, 25 years to stop this thing and I couldn't.
[01:13:50]  It ended up happening anyway.
[01:13:53]  You know, despite mine and a lot of other people's efforts to get the truth out there.
[01:13:58]  I mean, when it comes to Donald Trump, he just doesn't give a damn.
[01:14:01]  He goes, they're not allowed to have nuclear weapons.
[01:14:02]  And then he bombs their civilian nuclear program, or he doesn't care, he cares less for the real world that he's living in even than W Bush, I think and so that's just the world that we're living in.
[01:14:13]  But uh, let me end with a short pitch, which is for people who want to know the facts about Iran.
[01:14:18]  We're going to go ahead and post the Iran section of my course from the Scott Horton Academy at Thefactsaboutiran.com.

=== Check Out The Facts Course (00:44) ===

[01:14:27]  So check that out there.
[01:14:28]  Great yeah, that's a great idea.
[01:14:30]  All right definitely, everybody go check that out.
[01:14:32]  I know, I know I will.
[01:14:33]  Well Scott, thank you so much for your time, man.
[01:14:35]  It's just always uh, it's always great talking to you during moments like this to help us all understand the world a little bit better.
[01:14:42]  Of course, guys go uh, go subscribe right now, if you don't already, to the Scott Horton Show and to Provoked and, of course um, if you want to keep up with what's going on, Antiwar.com is really the best resource um, for that um and, of course, libertarian institute And the Scott Horton Academy.
[01:15:00]  Definitely go check that out.
[01:15:01]  If you do the truth about around stuff, but go sign up for the whole academy, man, because there's so much great stuff in there.
[01:15:07]  All right.
[01:15:07]  Thank you, Scott.
[01:15:08]  Thank you for everyone listening.
[01:15:09]  Catch you next time.
[01:15:10]  Peace.