Dave Smith and Robbie the Fire Bernstein dissect the "12-day war" in Iran, debunking claims that bunker busters destroyed Fordo's nuclear program while criticizing Ted Cruz for ignoring a 40-page report on lingering threats. They expose contradictions in Trump's shifting rhetoric from "no boots on the ground" to potential troop deployments and condemn Congress for supporting a conflict lacking imminent threat justification. Ultimately, the hosts argue the war is driven by the Israel lobby rather than genuine security needs, warning that this incoherent escalation risks long-term disaster despite administration promises of quick victory. [Automatically generated summary]
Transcriber: nvidia/parakeet-tdt-0.6b-v2, sat-12l-sm, and large-v3-turbo
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Jack's Iraq Documentary00:05:26
What's up, what's up, everybody?
Welcome to a brand new episode of Part of the Problem.
I am Dave Smith.
He is Robbie the Fire Bernstein.
We will be out in Pittsburgh this weekend.
ComicdaveSmith.com.
Come grab tickets.
We haven't, I don't think me and you have done shows together in Pittsburgh ever.
I haven't been there in quite a while.
I think I haven't been there since we had like a Mises caucus event in Pittsburgh a while back.
Anyway, really looking forward to going out there.
So come on out and see us this weekend.
I do apologize.
show is starting a little bit late today i was on uh Piers Morgan panel and it you know it might have been one out with oh dude i do ben ferguson who i used to know from uh back in um i think we met like when i was doing se cup show If you remember, like back in those days, like a Bush, George W. Bush conservative.
And dude, it was, I mean, he just, it was bad, dude.
He literally just, and look, I got to understand because he just knew he couldn't win the argument.
He just talked over me the entire time.
The entire show just became us talking over each other.
And then I did do it back to him a little bit because it was just like, oh, he ruined my whole last time to speak.
So now I'm going to do it to him.
So it just turned into a total shit show.
But it was kind of interesting because Jack Pasabiak was on too.
And, you know, I, I, I, you know, I got to, I probably should reach out to him.
I'd be interested to talk to him more about it.
But he just kind of seemed like, man, I can't even defend this shit.
And then they got like that Jojo chick and Tim Miller.
So it's like two Biden Democrats over here who are just like trashing Trump because it's the opportunity.
And you're like, shut up.
Like, I don't really want you on my side.
Like, I just wanted to talk to Jack the whole time.
I'm like, Jack, you got to admit, dude, that we have to stop supporting the president now because Jack Pasabiak, if, you know, he was a, he had just put out this mini documentary like a few months ago on the war in Iraq that was excellent, dude.
Like it was excellent.
Like I would stamp my name on that documentary and go, yes, dude.
He hit all of it, the clean break and the Israel lobby and the seven countries in five years.
And he went through the whole thing.
And then, you know, I mentioned to him today, you know, remember, because it's so funny because we'll get into it.
There's a bunch, obviously, more developments and fallout from the war.
But it was Dick Cheney.
He had in the documentary, Dick Cheney's now infamous meet the press appearance where they ask him at the beginning of the war, how long will the war in Iraq last?
And he goes, it'll be weeks, not months.
That was his quote.
It'll, this is going to be, it won't take months.
Come on, months?
That's ridiculous.
Meanwhile, you know, we, there was a bloody civil war for eight years and a military occupation for nearly 20.
And, you know, so you, you know, you get into these things.
It's easy to say, oh, this will be quick.
And like, maybe this one will be.
I mean, maybe Donald Trump will just stop.
But man, seems unlikely.
You know, I wanted to, I'm curious, just Rob, like just where, what you're thinking about, you know, 24 hours since our last podcast on this.
But one of the things that I'm thinking about that I think I maybe didn't, I maybe didn't do as good a job as I should have in the last episode of really making this point.
But I think the fact that because now, by the way, this has been verified by a bunch more reporting.
This is real, that after the Ayatollah was killed, Donald Trump, through his Italian negotiators, they, their conduit there, they offered a ceasefire.
Like Donald Trump tried to do the 12-day war thing and take another off-ramp, but the Iranians said no.
And they've been responding for 36 hours since then.
And the thing that's so like, I think that's a really important dynamic that that has shifted.
I tried to make this point on yesterday's show, but I think it bears repeating or maybe trying to make it in a better way that, you know, when I said Donald Trump had changed the incentives for the Iranians, it's like, well, look, for all of this time, and really, obviously, this was demonstrated in the 12-day war, Iran has not wanted it.
They don't want to get destroyed, obviously, right?
But now they've created a situation where the Iranians go, dude, we can't do that now.
You know, okay, it's one thing if you say, hey, we're going to bomb Fordo or we're going to take out your nuclear sites and then go, hey, you pretend to respond.
Now let's make a deal.
They go, okay, let's make a deal.
But we're going to come in and murder your Ayatollah and his family.
Now, let's call a ceasefire.
From the Iranian perspective, now they're like, no, then we know you're just going to keep fucking with us forever until you overthrow us.
So they're only so now their self-preservation calculation is that we got to give you a black eye.
We got to make sure, you know, some people die.
Now, already since then, since this war launched, there's, I think, is it four Americans Central Command is admitting have died.
I think a dozen or so other have been injured.
I think three people died in Austin, Texas in a blowback terrorist attack.
Venezuela War Escalates00:15:26
Oh, just the other day?
Is that a terrorist attack?
Well, he fucking, I mean, look, I guess we don't have all the details yet, but he had an Iranian flag and I'm with Allah shirt on when he started shooting people up.
So it's like maybe it was motivated by that.
Seems like a pretty likely guess.
Like I said yesterday, it's the worst way to be vindicated, but Iran really seems to not be playing around this time.
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All right, let's get back into the show.
What are your thoughts since last we spoke?
Well, still, yeah, I mean, I was hoping that there would be the easy off ramp of Donald Trump saying, hey, it's a new regime, even if it's not a new regime.
In terms of, you know, taking unnecessary risks, apparently, Donald Trump's leading picks for who might take over for Khomeini, they accidentally killed as well in the strike.
So he doesn't even currently know who he might want to team up with if they were to forge a new government.
I think the thing that's really standing out to me and it resonates from your comments on the last episode is just that Donald Trump is now the old Republican Party.
It's all the people that we voted against and had no interest in as the establishment politicians are the people that are taking a victory lap on the news station speaking for Trump.
And you're like, this is what Trump was here to do is to thwart you guys because we all hated you guys and we hated this stuff.
And now we're back.
You guys are in full control.
I was listening to the Ted Cruz interview and he's talking about briefing Donald Trump the day beforehand.
And I mean, the way he's selling it is almost like Ted Cruz went in there, pulled up his pants and showed him who's boss and said, here's what we got to do.
And Trump went yes.
And you know what happened in the elections?
We all voted against Ted Cruz because that's not what we wanted.
And it's incredible that we thought we were thwarting the Republican Party or voters did.
They thought they were getting a new Republican Party that was actually America first.
And now, I mean, we've got a better salesman for their bullshit.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Although, I mean, I don't know.
I don't know how effective of a salesman he's really going to turn out to be.
You know, there is there.
One of the things that's so interesting, right, is that even from, and I kind of pounced on that guy, Ben Ferguson on the show for this, but even from the Republican perspective, who's when they're, you know, trying to somehow justify this war on the just, it's like, it feels like a, what's the word I'm looking for?
A Hajj Paj.
What is that?
Like, where you just like randomly take things, like that's kind of the justification for this war is just like, I don't know what they're, they're Muslim and they also nuclear weapons.
And they're like, but you destroyed the nuclear weapons.
You're like intercontinental ballistic missiles are Marines.
Remember the Beirut bombing?
You remember that 60 years ago?
You know, like it's just like whatever they can grab.
But he goes at one point, like after Pierce asked him a question, he goes, he goes, well, I mean, you got to admit, because I said Donald Trump just destroyed his presidency.
And then he goes, well, you got to admit, if this goes bad, Dave's right.
It is right.
And he goes, yeah, yeah, yeah.
If this goes bad.
And it's like, oh, okay.
So he goes, if this goes bad, the Democrats are going to win the midterms.
And you're like, okay, so, but if you're admitting that if this goes bad, which seems like a good chance, like it seems like it's already gone pretty bad, Rob.
So if this goes bad, then the Democrats win the midterms and the Democrats win the presidency in 2028.
And so if you just think about like the average Republican, what they've been saying about the Democrats, you're like, so you're willing to risk our liberty to maybe bring liberty to the Iranian people.
And that is America first.
How?
Like, it's just, I almost like, I understand why Ben had to just interrupt me the whole time.
Cause what are you going to do?
Fucking make, have that argument?
What are you going to make the debate that trying to liberate the Iranian people, which may, to your own admission, may not work at all, is this?
You know, the other point that I wanted to make on yesterday's show that I don't think I did, I don't remember.
Maybe I did.
I don't think I made this point, but I think it's an important one.
You know, when Donald Trump, so I knew this about, and I had made this point previously about the first Iraq war under George H.W. Bush, the Persian Gulf War in 91.
And, but I had never made it about Panama.
You know, after I never really knew that much about Panama, I probably knew like, you know, I don't know, like the broad strokes of the thing.
Like I knew Noriega was the CIA's guy until he wasn't.
And I knew he was like in bed with the drug cartels.
I knew Nas liked to rap about him a lot.
And I knew that I knew that we went in there and we took him out.
But after Venezuela, everybody was like, all the Hawks were bringing up Panama as the example.
Look, this is another success.
So I kind of like started reading a little bit more about it.
And one of the really interesting things was that Panama was just like with the first, what they, the Hawks were saying at the time was what Ben Shapiro is saying now about the Venezuela, that it cure, it cured Iraq war syndrome.
Okay, they were all saying this cured Vietnam syndrome.
That's what they were saying.
That like, you know, ever since Vietnam, we had this real problem where Americans don't want to get into stupid, bloody wars.
But look, we just showed them that it could be a stupid, not that bloody war.
So now, you know, whatever we want.
And anyway, there's been all types of reporting about, and you could also see that the Hawks have all been bragging about this, but there's been a lot of reporting that this is Donald Trump's, you know, mindset.
And I had this confirmed from people who are very close to him, that essentially he looks at the success of Venezuela, the success, whatever that means, like, what did you actually do there?
But he looks at the success of Venezuela and goes, and that's a big part of his mentality with this.
Like, no, I'm really smart.
This is what all the Hawks are saying.
Yeah, that was with dumb leadership.
This is with smart leadership.
And so you end up realizing that there's like a hidden cost, even when these military adventures are somewhat, you know, what they would call successful, what we might call not catastrophic in their results.
But there's a hidden cost to that too.
And the cost is that that breeds all this hubris.
And now they start going, oh, yeah, we can do that.
And this is literally, I remember living through this.
This is what happened after the first war in Iraq is that everybody said, hey, this was so successful and easy.
We didn't even lose any troops.
We can do stuff.
And then we were bogged down in that country for the next 30 years.
You know, and so it just, you know, Donald Trump can sit here and say it's going to be weeks, not months, but we've heard that before.
And I think if you're really paying attention to the fucking, you know, the signal, not the noise here, the big news as of today, Rob, is that both Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth, the two most important people who you could hear from on this issue, the commander in chief and the secretary of war, both said they're not ruling out boots on the ground.
Well, yeah, I mean, it's it, listen, I, I'm, yeah, it's hard to believe them when they promised us no wars and now we're already in a war and now they're going, well, it's going to be a quick war.
And now they're already teasing, well, not only we haven't done our big and major strike.
And listen, if we got to do boots on the ground, I'm not, I don't care about the polls.
I don't care about anything.
We're getting this done.
It doesn't sound like it might still be a quick operation, but it's starting to sound like you're teasing the American people on, hey, this might be a little bit of a bigger operation and it might be more drawn out.
Yeah.
And one of the big questions so far has been, can they bring about a regime change through these bombing campaigns, you know, without boots on the ground?
And, you know, that's an open question.
We really don't know, but it does seem, at least so far, obviously we're only a few days into this thing, but it seems so far that, well, they were able to kill the Ayatollah and his family member and evidently a lot of senior people.
But in the response since then, in the, what is it, going on 24 hours since then, or 48 hours, excuse me, the regime has not been taken out.
You know, you look at all of these responses.
They've hit almost everywhere, dude.
Like the UAE, Saudi, Bahrain, like all over the place has been touched by Iran.
So the regime is still there and strong.
And so now this becomes an interesting thing here.
Like essentially, because we've seen lots of reports of senior generals saying, Hey, we only have a couple months of this in us.
And the big thing that I was reading is that they were saying they don't have enough anti-missile missiles, meaning like at a certain point, poking, they're not going to be able to shoot these missiles down as they're coming.
And that makes them that much more deadly.
Now, it's a big, uh, unanswered question: how long can Iran keep this up?
You know, like what happens there?
But look, I'll say this: even if, which is possible, you know, everyone always brings up the Marines getting killed in Lebanon.
And, you know, what people don't mention is what Ronald Reagan did after that, which is he left and wrote about this in memoirs and said, I promise I would never turn tail and run.
You know, but then, and then his line, which is a great line, is he goes, I underestimated the irrationality of Middle Eastern politics, you know, like basically being like, Hey, this is too crazy.
We got to get out of here.
But like, so look, there is a chance, and maybe I'm starting to think the best case scenario is that Donald Trump just realizes that and just stops and just that's it.
We're done.
But I got to say, Rob, I think in that case, he's already destroyed his presidency.
Like, I really think here Donald Trump's in a position where this has to be a success and not Venezuela, where he pretends it's a success.
You know, there's a big difference when you get Americans killed.
It's a different thing to go over there, get Americans killed, and then go, wait, you said it was regime change and now there is no regime change.
I don't know.
Anyway, here, let's play this.
Here was Donald Trump in a really extraordinary moment addressing the Americans who have been killed.
We pray for the full recovery of the wounded and send our immense love and eternal gratitude to the families of the fallen.
And sadly, there will likely be more before it ends.
That's the way it is.
Likely be more, but we'll do everything possible where that won't be the case.
We pray.
Mayor is Donald Trump.
I mean, I thought that was quite a statement, dude.
Just straight up saying, like, yeah, they're dead, and there'll be more.
Likely be more.
You know, and as you pointed out, Rob, you alluded to there, that Donald Trump had made a statement earlier that the biggest wave of attacks they haven't seen yet.
So I guess that's coming.
So his response right now is that we're going to hit them really hard.
And again, if again, there's two options here, right?
It is kind of a binary in the sense that that either topples the government or it does not.
And if it does topple the government, well, then everybody is on record acknowledging we have no one else.
We played you yesterday, Lindsey Graham.
I don't know what happens then.
It's a tool time, you know, home improvement sound.
That's what we got of what happens then.
And if the regime is still standing, then what happens?
These are major goddamn questions that don't seem to have positive answers to them.
I mean, he's really, hey, a couple deaths, no big deal.
We're going to see more.
I mean, talk about priming the American people for, hey, there's going to be boots on the ground.
And that's been everything of the conversation: getting Americans killed, not having boots on the ground.
And now he's just very casually playing that down as, hey, these are no big deal.
It's no big deal if a couple people die.
No big deal if we got to put boots on the ground.
Really seems like he's getting the American people ready for more.
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Thousands of Americans Killed00:15:08
Yeah, yeah, and I mean, uh, it's just again, like we said the other day, you're just it's the Lindsey Graham administration now.
Well, okay, well, Lindsey Graham ran for president alongside Donald Trump in 2016 as a never Trumper Warhawk.
He didn't come close to getting 1% of the vote, but that's who we got now.
And so, I don't know.
It's um, I think there is it's unfortunate.
It's never good when any president, no matter who it is, whether it's Obama, whether it's Biden, whether it's George Bush, or whether it's Donald Trump, it's never good when a president destroys their presidency because that's bad for the country.
Um, it is particularly terrible when Donald Trump, who had positioned himself as being really the only candidate who had a shot to win, who was against the Bushes, against the Clintons, against CNN, against the deep state, against when he destroys his presidency.
That is really tragic for all American patriots.
I don't, it doesn't bring me any pleasure that this is the case.
That being said, we didn't get to make these decisions, we just got to debate about them.
We did a pretty good job of that.
But now the dust is settled and it's President Lindsey Graham.
I got to oppose President Lindsey Graham.
I have no choice.
All good people.
I think that was God's first commandment: you have to oppose President Lindsey Graham.
It should have been if it wasn't.
And it's amazing how we're just not.
I mean, we never get a straight story from Trump, but even Heg said that this is not a regime change war, but it is.
We're not looking for a prolonged war.
And we got we're not the dummies of the previous ones, but this might go on longer, but don't worry, it's not going to go on forever.
It's just a lot of contradictory statements.
Well, also, just like when they keep the look, I mean, and I will say this, right?
Because I don't, just to be clear, I still don't think we're going to see boots on the ground in this.
And not just because I think like Trump is wise or something like that.
That's clearly gone out the window a long time ago, but just simply because there is nowhere near the popular support to do something like that.
And listen, man, this is not Iraq or Afghanistan.
I mean, I don't see how you could possibly invade Iran without like minimum 500,000 troops.
And I do think on some level, like they know that's a bloodbath if they do that.
So like there's just no way.
I mean, that totally changes the calculation of everything.
You know, once you invade the country, you de facto become your government.
And now the insurgents have a target.
You know, whereas right now, it's just the Iranian military can hit whatever they can reach.
But if another government rises or if America invades, now there can be an insurgency.
And so I just don't see that happening just for logistic reasons, but they're keeping the option on the table.
And, you know, even that alone is a really bad sign.
It's a really bad sign that this is not, nobody is saying like, this is the 12-day war.
They're like, no, no, no, no.
This is like Dick Cheney said weeks, not months.
And they're telling us months.
That's where we're starting at.
Not saying that that means it's going to be the same, but it doesn't bode well for sure.
All right.
Anything else that we should hit?
Or do you want to get into some of these clips here?
Let's get into clips.
All right.
Why don't we, by the way, here is, let's play the JD Vance.
This was from back after the 12-day war in 2025, where it's the I empathize clip here.
Let's play that one.
I certainly empathize with Americans who are exhausted after 25 years of foreign entanglements in the Middle East.
I understand the concern, but the difference is that back then we had dumb presidents and now we have a president who actually knows how to accomplish America's national security objectives.
So this is not going to be some long drawn out thing.
We've got in.
We've done the job of setting their nuclear program back.
We're going to now work to permanently dismantle that nuclear program over the coming years.
And that is what the president has set out to do.
Simple principle.
Iran can't have a nuclear weapon that has animated American policy over the past 130 days.
It's going to continue to be a driving force of our policy in the Middle East for the next three and a half years.
Vice President, I certainly empathize.
It's very nice that JD Vance empathizes with us.
I hope JD Vance can empathize with people who will never vote for JD Vance.
But isn't that it?
That's it right there, right?
What they've been saying all along.
No, no, no.
See, the problem isn't like there's these guys like us, Rob, who think the problem is the military-industrial complex, or the problem is interventionist foreign policy, or the problem is launching wars of aggression and wars of choice.
But no, See, the real problem is just that they were dumb, but Donald Trump is so smart.
He said this six months after we had to go attack the country for the exact same reasons that he brags that we had set back.
And again, it's just the incoherence of all of this, Rob.
We did the 12-day war, so we don't have to do what we have to do right now.
Oh, and that one was a success.
They'll still brag about the 12-day war.
Totally obliterated.
That's what I remember.
They owned their lesson for about till winter.
It's been totally obliterated, at least through the fall.
That's what we got out of the 12-day war.
All right, let's see.
Hold on.
I wanted to let's go.
Let's go to the last one I sent, Natalie, which is the Anna Paulina.
Did you see this?
This is her on MSNBC.
I thought she was one of the better ones.
Maybe I was just suckered by her good looks, but she's been good on a couple topics, most recently the Epstein stuff.
And then I saw this clip and I was like, oh, man, I didn't realize how A, how dumb she was, and B, how I guess bought and paid for she is on this issue.
Yeah, Rob always falls for.
He thinks the stripper really likes him.
Doesn't it?
Here, let's play this clip.
Where, can you just tell me really quickly, where have they killed thousands of Americans in America?
I didn't say they killed thousands of Americans in America.
I said that they have been responsible for thousands of Americans being killed.
And I think that that's easily something that you can verify.
I don't know, state-sponsored terrorism for starters.
Why don't you?
Are you serious right now about that whole thing?
I'm not going to list out exact exactly.
Just give me a judge.
Are you talking about terrorism?
Are you talking about the Iraq war?
You could start off by the three that they just killed.
Okay.
The whole point of your network is you want to actually talk about the facts.
You're not going to need the facts.
But I'm not going to say that you're already in the world.
It seems like you actually don't have a good understanding of the facts, Congresswoman.
You don't have a good understanding of the.
Well, I'm the one who's not.
No, not at all.
I'm actually interested in the substance.
No, no, not at all.
We can talk about the fact that Obama sent millions upon millions of dollars to the Iranian regime.
Or do you not want to address that because it's not supported by your opinion and your network?
No, I mean, is this really even something that we're going to actually get to?
Well, it seems like you just want to.
No, it seems like you just want to filibuster.
It seems like you don't really want to have a good faith conversation.
You just don't like what I'm saying.
No, no, we would have invited you on the air.
Every time I'm on you, yeah, you keep coming on every time and you keep stating a lot of things that are incorrect.
The United States launched an attack on Iran.
The United States launched a war against Iran right now.
Iran retaliated.
You can call it whatever you want to call it.
But at the end of the day, the Iranians responded and killed three American service members.
So what we're trying to get at is you make an assertion on this air that it's not an invasion when America sends fighter jets and Israel sends fighter jets and are not going to happen.
Congress will not vote on war with Iran because that is not something that we support and that is not something that the administration says that in Article 1, but I guess you think Article 2 is more likely to be able to do that.
Well, Article 2 is when the U.S. citizens and our military are in direct imminent threat, the president reserves the authority.
Yeah, well, he hasn't made that case to the American public.
And that is exactly what he's saying.
And that's the problem.
And that's why he's not going to be able to do that.
Well, he's not going to give you classified intelligence.
He's not supposed to give it to me.
He's supposed to give it to members of Congress.
He's supposed to go give it to members of Congress.
That's exactly why.
I haven't gotten it.
You're only one.
There are 435 members and 100 senators, and others have not gotten it.
You're not the only one.
There was a congressional notification prior to the strike.
Anyway, unfortunately, we're out of time.
That was actually a briefing.
There we go.
You don't want to hear the facts.
They got a briefing.
Hear the facts.
I'm telling you what other members of Congress.
All right, here, you can turn this off.
God, it is obnoxious.
And it is literally, this is essentially what happened to me on Piers Morgan today, like where they just try to filibuster.
They're just like, I'm just going to keep talking, man.
And it's amazing, dude, how pathetic she is.
Where she goes, he goes, oh, she's killed thousands of Americans.
Where have they killed thousands of Americans?
And she goes, number one state sponsor of terror?
Like, she's just, she just literally hits another Fox News talking point because she doesn't like, oh shit, I have to back that statement up.
You know, like, what?
I don't know.
I'm not going to get into this right now.
I know you brought me onto the show and you asked me a question, but I'm not going to get into that right now.
Are you seriously going to ask me to support my claim that they've killed thousands of Americans?
Terrorism.
All right.
What terror attacks?
Where?
Where are the thousand American deaths?
Are you seriously going to ask me that right now?
Really?
You're going to ask me that?
Well, we are on a news show.
You did just say it.
Yeah.
Like, what are we like?
I don't know.
Yeah.
Like, and then she goes, they just killed three Americans.
Like, yeah, because you launched this war.
Like, what?
You're going to, wait, you're using that as an example?
Retaliatory strikes?
Like, all right, but that's a little bit different than just coming over and killing random Americans on U.S. soil.
It's like, yeah, if you start a war with a country, they might shoot back at you.
That is quite a different statement.
It's also just so rich.
There's never going to be boots on the ground because Congress won't approve it.
Congress is supposed to approve strikes.
This is the first I'm hearing of a claim that they got pre-authorization or that they notified.
No, no, they listen, man.
There's and it doesn't even matter.
It's not even Congress is supposed to declare war.
I mean, the president has the authority, as she even says there, right, to repel an imminent attack.
But Rob, again, this most incoherent, and I mean this, out of all the terror wars, the justification for this one is the most incoherent.
And I'm not saying they weren't all lies.
I mean, this one's based off a lot of lies too, and all that stuff.
You know, Gaddafi is about to go genocidal was the argument for Libya.
Now, that was a lie, but there's at least a coherent argument there that we're fighting this as a kind of liberal interventionist.
We're trying to save people who are about to get killed.
You can at least like wrap your head around what they're claiming here.
This one, they're admitting that there was no imminent attack.
You know, did you see, Rob?
This is another thing that happened since we recorded last was that there a few of the people in the administration were floating out this thing that we had intel that Iran was about to attack.
And they were about to launch a preemptive attack.
And then the Pentagon came out and goes, now that's not true.
We didn't have any of that.
So like, there's not even an argument here that there was an imminent attack that was about to come.
And that's the only argument that would give him constitutional authority to launch this at all.
And look, I mean, to claim it's not a war, isn't it funny?
Like, because it's they're essentially what they're arguing is that Pearl Harbor wasn't an act of war.
9-11 wasn't an act of war.
You know, those were, those were strikes.
You see how ridiculous that is?
Like, we wouldn't, we wouldn't, if any other country just started bombing us and then and then killed President Trump, we wouldn't consider that an act of war.
Really?
Is that right?
Because also, Rob, they're simultaneously saying Iran has been at war with us since 1979.
Wait, so chanting mean things is war, but attacking another country and killing their leadership is not war.
Again, I mean, if you can tell me that's not incoherent definitions, then I don't know what you mean by that.
Are you seriously going to ask me this right now?
It is good.
It is a good technique.
It does put me on the back foot a little bit.
You're like, well, seriously?
I mean, well, yeah, it seemed like a reasonable thing to ask.
You made a statement and I asked you how you can back that up.
Yeah, that does seem like a very reasonable thing to ask.
Yeah.
Yeah, I just don't.
You know, there's also been all types of reports that it is, they're very concerned, like at the Pentagon about this.
They are, they kind of feel like we do right now.
Like they're going like, ah, shit, dude.
I don't know where this goes.
And I don't know if this really gets out of hand.
A lot of moving parts in this.
And this is what they're coming out with.
Like, this is what they got.
You know, as you as you said at the beginning of the show, which I thought was a very good way to put it, is that you're like, look, people voted for Donald Trump to be the antidote to all of this stuff.
And, you know, when Donald Trump was campaigning, which is, you know, all he's ever been good at.
But when he was campaigning to be president, you know, who gave the keynote speech at the Republican National Convention?
It was Tucker Carlson.
You know, that's who he went with.
I mean, look, Tucker Carlson was by far the biggest conservative in America.
You know, Tucker Carlson had the number one show in all of cable news at Fox News, the Fox News 8 p.m. hour.
And then he got fired and he leaves and he's bigger than he ever was at Fox News.
Tucker Carlson is currently, if you check the charts, he's number one.
It's the biggest news podcast in the country.
And he had Ted Cruz on.
and just fucking destroyed Ted Cruz.
Tucker Carlson Returns00:15:19
And the entire country, like the entire audience looks at this thing and goes, oh my God, Tucker just obliterated Ted Cruz, who's clearly loyal to Israel over the United States of America.
I mean, literally says the reason he ran for Senate was to be Israel's biggest defender in the Senate, right?
And then Donald Trump sides with him.
Man, does this seem bad?
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Did you see me ratio the shit out of Ted Cruz on Twitter yesterday, by the way?
Oh, no.
Tell me about this.
Oh, yeah, Ted Cruz.
Fucking, because this is the new world we live in now, Rob.
How crazy is this?
That when they launch a war, senators have to argue with me on Twitter about why they should launch Tom Cole.
He picked the fight.
He threw the first shot.
Awesome.
Yeah, Ted Cruz.
I missed this.
You got to tell me this.
This is great.
Okay.
So Ted Cruz here, let me.
Because I did see that, at least on my Twitter, I never know if it's the like my personal algorithm or if that's what it's showing on all of Twitter, but on like the sidebar where it shows news stories, you were trending for arguing with some other guy.
But I would have thought that if there was a Ted Cruz moment, that should have been what registered.
Yeah, this is, so this is what Ted Cruz said to me.
So I called Donald Trump a traitor.
It's a one word tweet.
I just said traitor.
And that tweet went super viral.
So I was, you know, it's got like 75,000 likes on it.
So I was trending for that.
And so then Ted Cruz, now I missed this for like eight hours.
It's like, I don't know, it was like, I think it was like late at night or whatever.
Let me see.
Yeah, it was one in the morning.
So I missed this.
I was asleep.
So he's, you know, it's, he texts me this at one in the morning.
I wake up at like 6 a.m.
I don't check my phone first thing.
You know, I get the kids breakfast and do all this.
So it's like maybe seven in the morning or something when I see this.
But so he, this is what Ted Cruz responded to me.
He goes, understand, this imbecile thinks Trump is a traitor.
And then he said, he's a leftist masquerading as right of center, Which I just thought that's that's what I masquerade as right of center.
Dude, I'm a fucking anarchist, dude.
It's like, what are you talking about?
That's how I always, that's how I always try to present myself, Rob.
It's just a little to the right of the center.
You know, I'm just kind of like a centrist, but like a little, maybe one click to the right of the, because I'm an abolish it all guy.
You know, whatever.
Ted Cruz doesn't know anything, but that's what he had to say.
It's also right of center.
So you mean what a lot of voters would actually want?
Right, right.
He's not, he's not the extreme right wing that Donald Trump decided that he would actually be once he got into office.
So how dare you call Donald Trump a traitor for going?
And I don't even know, is war extremely right?
Maybe.
I don't know.
Yeah, I mean, whatever.
In his, yes, if you let a bunch of Jewish, Jewish atheist former communists convince you that that's what right wing is, is to be for war all the time or something, sure.
But so I, I, uh, dude, I responded back to him and I said, um, Americans are dead because of the war of choice for Israel that you support.
You're both traitors.
I did love you as the penguin and Batman returns.
And then I said, hey, remember when Trump trashed your wife and you took it like a bitch and still supported him?
And then I just said, are we done here?
And dude, I mean, I fucking just ratioed the shit out of him, dude.
Like I just, there was like within minutes.
He had, he had, which by the way, if you know how Twitter works, this is all dumb.
But if you know how Twitter works, it's like you're kind of behind the ball if you miss the tweet for like 10 hours.
You know what I mean?
Before you, because he's a, I mean, it was like within minutes, just fucking ratio.
And I don't know, whatever.
It's all dumb.
It's all dumb Twitter fights, but it is a weird, it is a weird thing about the new reality we live in where like he felt like he had to come take me on.
And then also you're like, oh, you come.
He calls me an imbecile.
It's like, oh, dude, you want to be vicious here?
Like, is that what you want to do?
Do like vicious insults?
Like, all right, I'm going to come a lot harder than imbecile.
I'm going to bring up that Trump called your wife a dog face.
Remember that?
Remember when Trump said your wife had a dog face?
And then you just still supported him because he's fighting a war for Israel.
Yeah, geez, Ted.
That's rough.
In defense of Ted Cruz, not everyone is wealthy enough to buy women off of Epstein and import them from Eastern Europe.
So, you know, it is true.
Not everyone had that kind of in.
Well, inflation has really hurt.
Inflation has really hurt people who are in the market for that.
What I find shocking with Ted Cruz, maybe I know we have other clips, but maybe we can get to some of the Ted Cruz clips here in a second, but it's twofold.
It's one, I mean, he's claiming to have had heavy influence on Donald Trump here.
And it's exactly what we've been talking about was this is what we thought we were rebuking in the Republican Party.
But also he's supposed to be the smarty pants guy in terms of like the Republicans.
And I mean, he couldn't have looked dumber with Ted Cruz that he didn't know the size of Iran.
I get tripped up on that.
Yeah.
I get tripped up on trivia questions like that.
And I could have told you that in a heartbeat.
I don't know exactly 90 million.
That's what I have on the top of my head.
Maybe it's between 80 and 92.
I'm just saying I'd have 90 on the top of my head is the number, but to be pitching a war with a group of people, you don't even know the size of the country.
You have not done your homework, sir.
And in this interview, I noticed a line where he was talking.
He said, I have not seen the latest intelligence on whether or not Iran was using their stockpiled uranium to or enriched uranium to make a bomb.
And it's like, how can you be uninformed on that?
I can't imagine that there isn't some intelligence on that.
And you're not even informed on the latest intelligence.
How's that possible?
Well, also, like, I think, you know, it's like when I, when I come on this show or I go on another show to oppose a war, I always feel like I got to know what I'm talking about, you know, like I got to really have this information down.
And I think it's reasonable to say that there's a much stronger onus on you if you're supporting a war, right?
Like a positive action is there's much more of an onus on you to really be sure, whereas like to just be like, let's not start killing people is kind of a different proposition.
But yeah, it's pretty amazing.
He went in to argue with Tucker Carlson about regime change in Iran and didn't have the basic facts.
Tucker asked him the ethnic makeup of the country and he had nothing.
Like it's really is something.
Anyway, yeah, let's let's get into some of the Ted Cruz clips here.
I know, Rob, I think there were a couple different ones.
Oh, that's interesting.
Sorry, just getting.
I emailed to you.
I go with the one I emailed first.
Well, I, yeah.
You know, I sent one also.
Let's do the one I sent, which I think is one of the ones that you sent.
But it's that Ted Cruz claims that there's no intelligence is the start of the tweet.
Let's let's pull that one up.
And yeah, let's watch this.
Can you tell us now if you believe that there was an ongoing nuclear weapons program?
One of the top arms control arms control experts out there, David Albright, has written there should be an immediate priority on rapid response operations to secure Iran's nuclear stockpiles right now.
Can you assure the public that it will be secured?
And if so, who is doing it if there are no Israeli or U.S. forces on the ground?
So there is no doubt that a year ago, Iran had an active and ongoing nuclear weapons program.
We took out the vast majority of that at the end of the 12-day war.
That U.S. intelligence assessment was not made public, if that is what was briefed to you.
We took out, we launched targeted bombs at the end of the 12-day war, where we dropped the equivalent of about a third of a nuclear weapon on those underground facilities, facilities like Fordo, which is built into the base of a mountain, the bunker buster bombs we used.
Israel doesn't have those bombs.
No other country has those bombs.
We took them out last year.
The Iranians were still hell-bent on rebuilding them.
And one of the things we are doing right now is taking out their missiles, in particular, the southern missile belt.
Right now, Iran is building roughly 100 missiles a month.
They are actively building missiles to threaten their neighbors.
They're firing some of them right now at their neighbors.
Yeah.
At our allies.
They're illustrating powerfully.
They're attacking virtually every Arab neighbor that surrounds them.
They are firing missiles that it's almost like they want to illustrate to the world just how maligned they are.
But in terms of containing the risk, who's securing the nuclear material that you say still exists within Iran?
Who's doing that?
Look, the quantity of nuclear material, I didn't say anything one way or another on that.
What I said is they were building nuclear weapons a year ago and our bombing took that out.
They also had an ongoing desire to rebuild them.
I don't have present day intelligence on what progress they had made towards rebuilding nuclear weapons since we bombed their facilities.
I have no indication that they were anywhere close to getting nuclear weapons because our bombing was devastating.
And Margaret, that's one of the reasons I urged President Trump, now is the time.
You know, dictatorships survive because they're perceived as invulnerable.
And in this instance, Iran decisively lost the 12-day war that weakened the regime and set up what the president is doing now.
Dude, If you just think about all of this, Rob, I mean, by the way, you made the most important point there, which is like, yo, dude, you don't know.
You're not up on the intelligence.
I mean, by the way, David Albright, who she referenced there, the report that they're referring to was the group is, well, rather unfortunately named ISIS.
But I think they call themselves the good, the good ISIS.
They're the Institute for Science and International Security.
They need a new name.
Listen, I think they named themselves before the Islamic Caliphate, but I agree with you, Rob.
That's kind of when you pick a new name at that point.
So they keep anyway.
But they put out this report.
It's worth reading.
It's about 40 pages long.
This was their intelligence assessment of where the nuclear capabilities of Iran were at.
And what they essentially were saying is that so their argument, or what they believe, shouldn't say their argument, what they were saying, the evidence leads them to believe is that essentially that the attacks in the 12-day war really did fuck up Iran's nuclear capabilities, which, you know, doesn't seem that hard for me to believe.
I mean, it was always kind of like Donald Trump was always bragging about how they'd been obliterated.
And then you kind of take that with a grain of salt because you go, yeah, he's going to brag about whatever he does and say it was the biggest, most tremendous thing that's ever been done.
But, you know, bunker busters really do.
I don't know if you've seen any of those demonstrations, Rob, of how bunker busters work, but they really do blow shit up and destroy them.
And so, okay, that seems right.
And essentially, the rest of the report was saying that like Iran really hasn't been doing it since then.
Now, these are still the guys who are arguing.
You got to make sure you get this nuclear material if you're in there.
So anyway, but just for background, if people want to read that report here, the report, if you're interested in looking it up, it's the Institute for Science and International Security.
And the report is called Comprehensive Updates Assessments of Iranian Nuclear Sites Five Months After the 12-day War.
The idea of Ted Cruz hasn't read this.
Ted Cruz hasn't read a 40-page paper on the latest assessment of all of this.
Like he just doesn't know.
And like, it is, dude, it is like you said, it reminds you of the Tucker Carlson thing.
It's really one of the things that was why Tucker Carlson did such a valuable service to Americans by having Ted Cruz on, is that he did have this reputation as the smarty pants.
This is the guy who's argued cases in front of the Supreme Court or whatever.
And he's really the very smart one.
And he's, and he doesn't know anything.
They'll advocate for a war without even just having the fundamental details down or even like bothering.
Again, it's 40 pages.
It's kind of dense, but I read it.
The senator can't be bothered to.
Anyway, Rob, again, the incoherence, the painful incoherence of this whole thing is that, so essentially, we're arguing that they had a nuclear threat.
We took the nuclear threat off the table.
We still have to be worried about the nuclear threat.
Okay.
And then in the other one, if you might notice this one, Rob, this is a big thing that they also say too now, right?
Is they go, you know, this thing he said at the end, dictatorships rely on the perception of strength.
By the way, a little bit of an aside.
Is that only dictatorships?
What's all this peace through strength stuff that all you Republicans keep talking about?
I guess we all kind of like to project strength or whatever.
By the way, another aside, on the peace through strength part that the Republicans have been saying since Ronald Reagan, when do we get the peace part?
I've seen a lot of strength.
I've also seen permanent militarism waiting on that peace part of the whole equation.
Anyway, but here's the problem they have, right?
Netanyahu Weakens Iran Deal00:05:00
And this is the reality.
Why now?
Why right now are we launching this war when obviously the Israel lobby, Benjamin Netanyahu, the Republican establishment, they've wanted this war for a long time.
Well, the reason it's going on right now is because the, well, the perception is that the regime's been weakened.
You know, this is why they wanted to do it when the protests were happening, but they couldn't get the military hardware there in time.
And so this is why Voice of America is on radio right now telling the Iranians to rise up and overthrow their government.
This is why Donald Trump, when he announced this war, told the Iranian people to rise up and overthrow their government because they perceive the regime as being weak.
That's what Ted Cruz just said to you there, right?
They rely on this perception of strength, but after the 12-day war, they're pretty weak now.
Look, they're weakened.
Hezbollah has been weakened in the region with Israel's kind of decapitating cell phone or pager strikes or pager bombs.
The 12-day war was a real embarrassment for Iran.
They really just took it and didn't do anything while we did evidently destroy some of their nuclear program.
Wasn't a weapons program, but don't let that fuck with you.
And the economy is terrible.
The sanctions have been crippling.
And there's been mass protests in the streets.
So they're weak, meaning now's the time we could try to overthrow them.
But, you know, there's another problem with that.
Rob, it really undercuts the whole necessity for war.
Because if they're weak, then they're really not that much of a threat to us.
And if they're weak, then they certainly don't pose an imminent threat, which would be the only legal justification for Donald Trump to do this in the first place.
And so here you have, and I really honestly, I don't think I've ever seen a war like this.
And I've seen a lot of wars and I've been pretty focused on them for like the last 20 years of my life.
I have never seen a war where every goddamn propaganda point contradicts the next propaganda point.
You know what I'm saying?
Like you just let them explain it and they contradict themselves with the whole thing.
Well, if they're weak, then they're not an existential threat.
Well, we have to liberate the Iranian people.
Well, what comes next?
Well, we don't know what comes next, but we can't let the number one state sponsor of terrorism have a nuclear weapon, but we obliterated their nuclear program.
Like, what the fuck, Rob?
Which one is it?
Well, that's what stood out to me the most the last time was when they said they have all this enriched uranium.
We don't know where they where they put it.
They were also two weeks away from getting a bomb and we've totally removed their ability to get a bomb.
And I was just like, not all of this can be true at the same time.
Yeah, yeah, right.
And now they seem to be walking the fence once again of going, no, we were very successful when we hit them and they still have the potential and desire for a bomb, but we don't even know what the intelligence is of whether or not they're getting one.
And of course, this all just ignores the fact that seemingly they had a religious dictate that they didn't want to get a bomb and have never been interested in it.
Yeah.
Well, at least that's what the now deceased Ayatollah always said.
I believe that wasn't the position of the previous Ayatollah.
And so we'll see what comes next.
Who knows?
But there is no question, right, that we had the JCPOA, that Barack Obama and Europe and the Iranians negotiated this deal.
They were staying between 3% and 5% of enrichment.
And, you know, we had a whole new inspections regime that came in.
Now, by the way, the original JCPOA, which really was the best thing that Obama did in his pathetic, disastrous presidency.
But the whole thing was always a fake agreement anyway.
It was never about Iran's nuclear weapons.
We all knew Iran.
The CIA had assessed back since like 2007 that the Iranians hadn't even, weren't even trying. to get a nuclear weapon, let alone were they close to it.
And the whole point of the JCPOA was to take away Benjamin Netanyahu's pretext for war.
And that's why it, that's why he hated it so much.
And so the whole thing was like, we had a whole new inspections regime.
We knew exactly what they were doing.
And we lost that after the 12-day war.
But there's just the idea that they're developing a nuclear weapon has always been, look, Benjamin Netanyahu's been saying this since the fucking 1990s, since the 1990s.
He's been saying they're three years away from developing a nuke.
He had that cartoon bomb in the in the UN.
Fringe Views on Forever Wars00:08:29
Like this is like 15 years ago or something.
I don't remember it.
10 years ago, whenever.
But it's like, this is all, it's all just complete lies, all complete war propaganda.
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All right, let's get back into the show.
Here, let's play one more clip of Ted Cruz.
It was this one, play one of the clips from the email that Rob sent because there was another clip in there that was pretty good too.
I like the one where he's just, where he's just really talking about, I got to talk to Trump before this attack and basically convinced him this is our best opportunity.
Do you remember which?
Yeah, that's the first one that I emailed.
I think it's this.
I have to ask about the differing views, let's say, inside your party about whether this is the right thing to do.
Starting with the president himself campaigning on and saying in his inaugural address that there would be no more wars.
And there were a fair number of Republicans who voted for him liking that promise.
Tucker Carlson is somebody who liked that promise.
He told ABC that the president's decision to strike Iran is, quote, absolutely disgusting and evil.
Your response?
So I will say your quote of the president was slightly off.
He did not say there would be no more wars.
He said there would be no more forever wars.
Those are very different things.
I emphatically agree with him.
You are not going to see a major U.S. troop presence in Iran.
He and I talked about that on Friday, talked about Israel leading many of the attacks.
We talked about targeted airstrikes taking out the military capacity of the regime to attack the protesters.
And I also urged arming the protesters so the people of Iran could fight back because they're going to help them.
I hope so.
I do not know for sure.
I did not get a clear answer on that.
That is what I advocated for.
Look, Tucker Carlson, as President Trump has said, Tucker Carlson is a quote.
He's a kook.
He's an isolationist.
His views are fringe.
And Tucker Carlson spoke the entire Trump presidency.
Okay.
This was a different clip, but it's great.
So first is there's a hard pivot from the pitch of no new wars to no forever wars.
I don't remember that being the conversation.
And now what Donald Trump said was no more regime change wars.
He's lying through his teeth already, but keep going.
Sorry.
I thought there was even just chatter of no new wars.
Oh, yeah, yeah.
He said that too.
No, no, no.
He absolutely bragged about no new wars.
I'll keep you out of wars, all that stuff.
Yes.
And so now we're getting a hard pivot to, it was no forever wars.
I don't remember that being the conversation.
And now this is.
Well, can I just say, I'm sorry.
I'm sorry, Rob, keep your thought, but just keep your thought.
But it's just, it's important to be said that nobody ever says they're for forever wars.
Like, what does that mean?
Dick Cheney said it'll be weeks, not months.
None of them ever say we're for forever wars.
And by the way, like, and I mean this, none of them ever really are.
Like, no, no, no one wanted, like, no one who wanted to go to war in Iraq went, oh, dude, I bet we'll get 20 years out of this thing.
No one went into a gaffe.
I mean, maybe some weapons companies or something like that.
But like, there's just, there's no distinguishing yourself from anyone else by saying that.
I'm sorry.
Anyway, keep going.
And now, I mean, this is just straight out of the COVID propaganda book of trying to pretend, hey, you're insane and everyone's getting the vaccine.
And now he's trying to pretend that nobody in the Republican Party has Tucker Carlson's views.
Tucker Carlson is the fringe view.
And really, Americans are not isolationists.
And that's not true.
Bullshit.
That's why Tucker Carlson is as popular as he is.
And that's not the mainstream of the Republican Party is not for fighting these foreign wars.
They were for America first.
Let's deal with our problems over here and quit wasting money over there.
Yes.
Again, go check the charts in the news podcast.
Tucker Carlson is number one.
Number one.
Okay.
And so, yeah, the idea, right, this is on the level of Brian Stelter saying that Joe Rogan is a fringe figure.
Like, yeah, okay.
If you want to try to play that game, dude, the and look, again, this is, and we got to wrap on this, but I will say the idea of labeling, oh, the majority of people, they're not isolationist kooks like Tucker Carlson, but like, like they always go to this isolationist thing.
And look, I think, um, to be completely fair, I think Tucker is certainly much more of a protectionist than I am, um, or you are.
We're like really free trade guys.
Um, but isolationism, this is, this is a total red herring.
Like, this isn't on the table right now.
This, the, the United States of America is the, um, it is the biggest empire in the history of the world.
We have, um, you know, bases in, you know, we have thousands of bases in hundreds of countries all around the world.
We still occupy Germany and Japan and South Korea.
We have bases, as we've found out, right?
Everybody paying attention to the news is learning where we have bases and where do we have bases?
Oh, everywhere, all over the goddamn place.
This isn't a conversation between isolationism and interventionism or something like that.
This is a conversation about whether we should launch another stupid regime change war of choice.
That's the conversation.
But of course, Ted Cruz can't frame it as Tucker Carlson is a kook who doesn't want us to get into another regime change war.
Because then that kook would sound like super majorities of the American people.
And look, even right now, even, and it's pretty amazing, dude.
Even right now, when look, there's dead Americans and there's some blown up stuff, but there's only a few dead Americans so far.
And even right now, Donald Trump barely has majority support of his own base.
Think about it.
Last I saw it was something like 55% of Trump voters said like, okay, we'll support the president so far.
And if this thing starts getting bloody and costly, that number's going down and down and down.
And if you look at independents or young people or Democrats, this thing is wildly unpopular.
So to try to pretend that somehow the guy with the biggest podcast in the political world represents this fringe view by not wanting to fight yet another regime change war in the Middle East when all of them have been catastrophic so far is just, yeah, this is what they got.
This is what they got.
Ted Cruz, I mean, I guess it's worth saying, not that it's ever going to happen, but it's like, hey, Ted Cruz, you're going to call me an imbecile on Twitter.
Regime Change Unpopular00:00:21
Come on the show, buddy.
I promise, completely good faith.
I'll be nice.
No insults.
You can insult me as much as you want to.
I won't insult you one time back.
I'm just going to ask you really substantive questions and we'll see what your answer is.
Let's see who the imbecile is.
Let's see.
All right.
We got to wrap there, but I'm sure there'll be a lot more to talk about.