On today’s must-see episode of Human Events Daily Jack Posobiec breaks down the importance of the Big Beautiful Bill to the American Working Man and middle class with May Mailman, Deputy Assistant to President Trump. Jack is also joined by Paula Scanlan from APP to discuss UPENN, Lia Thomas and the end of Men in Women’s Sports. All this plus an interview with Rich Baris on President Trump’s approval among all voters…and the moment the Big Beautiful Bill was passed - on today’s Human Events Da...
I want to take a second to remind you to sign up for the Pozo Daily Brief.
It is completely free.
It'll be one email that's sent to you every day.
You can stop the endless scrolling, trying to find out what's going on in your world.
We will have this delivered directly to you, totally for free.
Go to humanevents.com/slash pozo, sign up today.
It's called the posto daily brief.
Read what I read for show prep.
You will not regret it.
Humanevents.com slash pozo, totally free.
The pozo daily brief.
This is what happens when the fourth turning meets fifth generation warfare.
Stay deep.
A commentator, international social media sensation, and former Navy intelligence veteran.
This is Human Events with your host, Jack Pasovic.
Christ is a record number of Americans are taking off for their holiday weekend destinations.
Drivers will find some relief at the gas pump, with the national average expected to dip to 315 Friday, the lowest level on July 4th since 2021.
The first group of immigrants has arrived at Alligator Alcatraz.
That's the new detention center located deep in the Everglades.
Florida officials say the alligators and snakes that surround the facility will deter anyone from trying to escape.
Job, job, jobs report.
I wouldn't look for this to make an easy, more likely 147,000 jobs.
Definitely a bit better than expected.
Supreme Court is throwing out rulings in favor of transgender people in four states, and this follows the justices' recent decision upholding a Tennessee ban on certain medical treatment for transgender youth.
But the justices took no action in cases involving the participation of transgender students on school sports teams.
So the High Court now is also ordering judges to re-examine cases from those states.
Manu wasn't the only one.
The only American citizen who's been targeted by the deportation machine, a deportation machine that will be unleashed on steroids by this one big, ugly bill.
We're in a good place right now.
We feel very good about where we are and we're moving forward.
We are going to deliver the big, beautiful bill, the president's America First Agenda, and we're going to do right by the American people.
All right, ladies and gentlemen, welcome aboard today's edition of Human Events Daily.
Today is July 3rd, 2025.
Anno Domini, we are on the cusp of something big and something beautiful.
All right, here are all the updates on the big, beautiful bill, which appears for all intents and purposes to be imminently passing.
Speaker Johnson is now on the floor.
He has his magic minute.
He's up there speaking right now.
We've also just seen the end of Hakeem Jeffries.
We're told eight hours, 44 minutes.
He spoke, breaking the record before that was originally set by previous speaker Kevin McCarthy.
But I got to say, Jeffries, man, no Riz Jeffries, right?
Timu Obama.
This guy, not a single standout moment other than one, which we just played for you, where he said we are going to get deportations on steroids, a deportation machine on steroids.
Let me tell you something.
I voted for the deportation machine.
Sign me up for the deportation machine.
I'm part of the deportation machine.
You want to know something?
You want to know what won the popular vote in 2024, 2024?
It was the deportation machine.
Just think about it.
I'm just sitting back imagining what my commute is going to be like when we 20X the ICE budget.
I'm thinking about what all the public parks and public spaces are going to be like when we 20X the ICE budget.
I'm thinking about what restaurants and movies and beaches and all of it are going to be like when we 20X the ICE budget.
Not to mention healthcare costs, going to the ER and not having to wait three hours for just a couple of stitches, being able to go and buy a house on Zillow without having to worry about these insane housing prices or just find a place to rent.
Imagine all of the incredible things we will have when we 20X the ICE budget.
I saw somebody else saying, Ian Bremer, of course, a famous neoliberal was saying, I can't believe that under this new bill, under this bill, the United States Deportation Authority, ICE, will have a larger military budget than most world countries have for their military.
And I said, my goodness, that's exactly what I voted for.
Got what I voted for, award.
This is what we want.
And let me tell you something.
Tatimu Obama, no Riz Jeffries, we are going to get what we want.
The American people are going to get what they voted for, whether you like it or not.
We'll be right back, Jack Kosovic.
Human Events Daily, Real American Voice.
Nothing will stand in our way, and our golden age has just begun.
This is Human Events with Jack Kosovic.
Now it's time for everyone to understand what America First truly means.
Welcome to the second American Revolution.
All right, folks, here we are.
Human Events Daily.
We're back.
Real America's voice now.
We've got Speaker Johnson is delivering his last right there.
He's just given the end of his speech.
You can see that down in the corner.
So we're keeping a track on this.
And it appears that votes could be happening within the hour if that happens.
We will take you to that.
But to give us an update on all things, big, beautiful bill, we've got May Mailman joining us now, the deputy assistant to the president and senior policy strategist.
May, how are you?
Hey, it's good to be back.
Well, it's incredible to have you here.
And I got to say, for all intents and purposes, it looks as though the White House, the administration, you guys are on the cusp of a big, beautiful victory where this bill will be turned into the big, beautiful law.
Walk us through how the White House views the process happening from here on out and really what's in this bill that Americans can be looking forward to.
Yeah, so after Congress votes, then we have to implement.
So that means a couple of things.
One, on the tax credits.
We need to make sure that no tax on Social Security, no tax on tips, no tax on overtime get actually implemented through the treasury process.
So this is, you know, where we work with the deep state to make sure that everybody has the guidance that they need and then American labor can finally be freed up again and so that we can see a manufacturing renaissance.
So that's something that we are focused on is implementing the tax provisions.
Then you've got a lot of the rest.
We are going to obviously wind down a lot of the green new scam deals.
So there will be no new credits issued in 2028.
And so basically anything that is in construction right now has to be it.
That's it.
And so we're going to be moving over a lot of investment, a lot of focus to reliable American-made energy sources, those sorts of things.
We've got work requirements that we're going to implement.
So this is going to put so many more people into the workforce.
It's going to give so many people something to live for again.
Right now, without work requirements, people, and these are pretty simple work requirements, 20 hours a week.
This is something that all Americans who are able-bodied can do and should do.
So we're going to empower Americans to get back in the workforce and provide for their families.
There's so many wins in here, conservative wins, savings wins.
I know the CBO says that this is going to increase the deficit.
Our numbers are $8.4 trillion off of that because tax cuts produce more revenue for the government.
We also have the largest savings of any bill in history.
So we're going to be saving money.
We're going to be putting people to work.
We're going to be uplifting the American spirit.
We're going to be increasing manufacturing, making our country energy dominant.
So many wins here.
And May, when it comes down to it, there's one issue I think above all that when our audience weighs in on this, when they really come in, the single biggest issue that we get is ICE.
And they want to see the full funding for ICE.
And this is something where I think if you go to the mainstream media, they're not even talking about it.
Or if they do, you get Hakeem Jeffries and the deportation machine on steroids.
And I'm joking.
I said, did you not understand what all of 2024 was about?
I'm pretty sure the president talked about this every single chance he was physically able to do so, that the American people need relief from the massive influx of illegal aliens that came under Joe Biden.
So talk to us a little bit about this piece on finally funding ICE to do the job that needs to be done.
Right.
So President Joe Biden let in people who we, you don't even know the numbers and you don't know who they are, but they're living in your communities.
They're in many places still living on the streets and they're endangering Americans.
And it's something that Americans voted against.
So by fully funding border security, this is funding the wall and this is also funding ICE operations.
So not only ICE officers to increase the number of ICE officers, but increase the number of bed space.
Because if you've got an ICE officer, but there's nowhere to put people while they go through their proceedings, right?
So this is America and everybody gets proceedings, but those proceedings take a while.
So there has to be a place to put people.
So this bill fully funds not only ICE officers, but it also funds that infrastructure like the bed space in order to effectuate these removals to keep America safe and to promote the legal pathway, right?
It is completely unfair that people get to hop the line.
And then if you get across the border, then there's no one to catch you.
Then there's nothing that happens to you.
A nation that is founded on fairness and justice cannot tolerate that sort of system.
And this bill puts an end to it.
Oh, absolutely.
And I certainly understand the concerns of many out there who have raised questions about spending, particularly on a variety of these things.
But it's incredible to me how, number one, when you're removing these illegal aliens who are such a drain on our systems and a drain, by the way, on the entitlement programs, that that doesn't seem to fact, certainly doesn't factor into the CBO score, but it doesn't factor into any of their arguments because you're actually increase or decreasing the demand for social services through the deportations.
And, you know, they're only focused on the supply side of this.
But on another side, they're not talking about growth.
How do you have jobs numbers like the ones that come out today, which obviously would have factored into the CBO score, but didn't, that is only just the start of what we're starting to see from the new economy going forward?
Talk to us a little bit about how there really isn't the correct story being put out on growth.
Yeah, so right now, the way that the Congressional Budget Office, which always says that liberal bills are free, I mean, this is a group that said that Biden's student loan, or sorry, Obama, same, you know, same thing, but that Obama's student loan program would cost $0, that for the government to give loans to everybody who wanted them, it would not cost anything.
It would actually make up enough money to pay for Obamacare.
Of course, that's crazy, right?
Our student loan system, nobody's repaying.
You're giving it to people who can't finish their degrees, who actually had no intention of doing it, and students who are set up for failure by universities that give them useless degrees.
So this is the CBO that thought that that program would actually save money.
It says that this bill is going to cost money.
And the way that they get to that, as your listeners will know, is that they say that the tax cuts are very expensive.
But here's the funny thing.
The tax cuts are an extension of what's already the case.
So they're saying that it's expensive to literally just continue the status quo.
But if we had the greatest tax hike in history, that would not be the status quo.
That would be very expensive to the American people in that you would end American manufacturing, you would end small business growth, and so you would see a real decline in the GDP and in the jobs, in the manufacturing, but also in the American spirit.
I mean, honestly, it would just crush people and the amount of money that they have to spend.
And so the CBO score has no bearing on reality.
And when we look from our CEA, so this is our Council of Economic Advisors, which is a nonpartisan organization within the executive branch, they said that if you look at even the tariff revenue combined with the growth, combined with the savings, we are $8.4 trillion off of what the CBO says.
So clearly we don't believe what they have to say and the American people shouldn't either.
Well, I think this is incredible.
May, we've only got about a minute left.
I know you guys are super busy there.
Does it look like though, and it certainly seems to be for me, I tweeted this this morning, so we have to make sure that it's true that on this 4th of July, President Trump is about to deliver one of the most biggest and beautiful birthday presents to the United States of America since 1776.
Are we going to get there?
I think we will.
I think we have the votes.
And right now, then it just turns to us.
Our job gets hard.
Congress's job gets easy.
And we have to implement.
Of course, there's still things Congress can do, but this implements President Trump's agenda.
One of the things I think people were frustrated about was that there were so many wins during Trump 1.0, and then Biden took them all away.
On day one, he took them all away.
And this is important in order to solidify and change the course of our country, in order to have President Trump's agenda be permanent.
That's what this bill does.
Simple as that.
May, where can people go to follow you and see everything that you and the White House are putting out?
Yeah, so on Twitter, I'm at Mae Mailman.
And obviously follow all of our great people here in the White House, Caroline, our White House press office.
So yeah, that's where you can find me.
We love all the folks there and the great work you guys are doing.
May, if I don't see you, have a happy Independence Day.
Thank you.
All right, we're right back.
Jack Prusovic, Human Event Delicious Things.
You talk about influencers.
These are influencers.
And they're friends of mine.
Jack Prusovic.
Where's Jack?
Jack?
He's got a great job.
My name is Paul Stanlin, and I'm a former swimmer from the University of Pennsylvania.
My name is Riley Gaines.
I was a swimmer at the University of Kentucky.
I was permanently injured at the hands of a man when I was forced to play against him in a high school volleyball game.
I was forced to compete against a biological male on my middle school track team.
I had to compete against two biological males throughout all four years of high school.
Trump's admin and the Department of Education have gotten the University of Pennsylvania not just to apologize for what they did to me and other female athletes that were forced to compete against and alongside this male athlete, but they also got them to change their policies and to take down his records from the board, which is a great win.
The stories we heard brought tears to all of our eyes.
It was powerful.
It was moving.
I'm so excited for the announcement from Secretary McMahon and President Trump today as they stand at the forefront of this issue for women and girls everywhere.
And I am so thankful that we finally have an administration in office who's willing to stand up and ensure that no other girl has to experience the pain and heartbreak I went through.
I'm just very excited that the Trump administration is taking action to protect girls.
We're fighting for the next generation, young girls like my daughter.
So just very, very grateful and excited for what this means.
Well, incredible news out of the White House in terms of that.
And we've also, of course, very excited to have on the great, the great, I'm going to give her the great Paula Scanlon, who was just in that video.
She is a senior fellow at APP, but also, of course, was on the swim team with Leah Thomas.
Paula, what a week it's been for you.
Definitely.
I mean, it's been a really crazy week just getting around.
And this announcement really came very suddenly, but I'm grateful for it.
I think we've seen really strong leadership from the Trump administration.
I mean, continued strong leadership.
They campaigned on this.
They promised this and they delivered.
Only within six months, they got Penn to already come crawling back, apologizing.
This is a historic win.
And again, I'm so grateful for them and their leadership.
So walk us through, for folks who haven't seen the whole context of it.
And, you know, I saw the stuff that you had tweeted out about it, but walk us through what exactly has Penn done here?
Yes.
So back in March, the Trump administration polled federal funding from the University of Pennsylvania for their violations in Title IX.
I mean, obviously, they had a six foot four tall, fully intact male on our women's swim team.
It's very clear they were violating Title IX there.
They polled the funds.
Penn then went to the Trump administration and said, hey, I'm willing to negotiate.
And whatever happened behind closed doors with those wonderful people, they got the University of Pennsylvania to issue an apology to the female athletes affected, wipe Thomas' name from the record board, begin using language that's true in defining men and women, which is very important, which is so silly that we even have to make them do that.
But that was one of the other things that they agreed to.
And again, this is something we've never seen before.
No one else who's violated these Title IX problems has come to the table like this and just said, actually, we're going to walk this all back.
So, and this, of course, comes on the heels of the pressure from the Trump administration locking up the federal funding and getting them to actually try to behave.
Do you think that President Trump maybe had a little bit of a personal investment in this because he himself is a Penn grad?
I mean, we can only look at the connection, but I hope so.
But also, I think that Penn is realizing really what's at stake here, right?
We've seen Harvard go the other direction and not cooperate with the Trump administration.
I think what they're seeing is the Trump administration stands on business and should be feared.
And I honestly think the University of Pennsylvania finally, for the first time ever, has done the smart thing here.
So I hope the connection is there.
And I would love for Trump to go back.
Why don't actually, you know what they should have agreed to?
Trump should have to be the commencement speaker at the University of Pennsylvania next year.
That's what I would have liked to see in their agreement.
Oh my gosh.
so actually have him there.
And now, and correct me if I'm wrong, but Penn, I think this is true.
You're required to sit there through the graduation speaker, isn't that right?
I think so.
I mean, maybe you could get up and leave, but they probably won't let you out.
No, I remember this coming up years ago, and there was some like crazy Islamic speaker, and I had some friends who were there at the time, and they were required to, they were required to, um, uh, they were required to speak and required to sit during the speech.
And so I guess they'd have to be forced to be there.
By the way, I am being told through my producer's ear, well, my ear, that the big, beautiful bill has just passed.
Guys, can we get that?
Can we get that box up in the corner here?
And I want to see the actual votes, if we can get the actual votes, maybe in a voice vote.
And so there it is.
Incredible.
Paul, can I just get you to weigh in real quick on this bill?
Because this is hotbreaking news.
Oh my gosh, I cannot believe I'm on with you when this is happening.
Obviously, this is just, again, hard work at stake here.
That's so many things we had to get in there.
And this is why we have strong leadership under the Trump administration.
I mean, this is amazing.
I'm so glad to see Trump's agenda continue to get pushed along.
And I'm glad some of the people that were questionable have now cooperated.
So this is incredible.
And I want to get the numbers on this.
And we're going to have to look at the actual actual members.
But yeah, you can see it there.
Two, I think it says, was that 216?
Yeah, 216.
Two Republicans voted against, two not voting.
So of course we're going to have to track them all down.
Brian Fitzpatrick last night running away from the House chamber.
Brian Fitzpatrick, by the way, Bucks County, Pennsylvania, Paula, one of your favorite locations, if I remember correctly.
Yeah, I have a lot of family out there.
We spoke together at an event out in Bucks County.
We did an event there.
Yeah, last year.
We got to go pay him a visit.
We may have to go.
No, Brian Fitzpatrick.
So he's there because it's his former brother's seat, his late brother's seat, who is a very good congressman.
Brian is someone that I've known for over 15 years, you know, through his brother.
And I just say, you know, Brian Fitzpatrick is no Mike Fitzpatrick.
And that's saying, that's probably the best thing that I could say about his tenure in Congress.
It's just as simple as that.
Former FBI director, you know, it's just, it just is what it is.
Paula, this is a huge, huge win, though, I think, for people who want to 20X the ICE budget, for people who want to actually get out there and see these mass deportations take place and actually get the president's agenda pushed forward.
Last minute to you, Paula Scanlon.
Where can people go to follow you?
And how important are all of these victories for Americans, for regular Americans?
Yeah, well, definitely.
I'm pretty active over on X, Paula Y. Scanlon.
You can keep following along with what I'm doing.
But I think what just happened just shows us exactly what I was saying earlier is that the Trump administration stands on business.
They don't just make promises.
They deliver on them.
And this is just another example of that.
And so again, I'm grateful for his leadership.
I'm grateful that he's president.
And everything really that he's done, I've been so pleased with in the last couple of months.
And I know we're technically still early on in the administration.
So I'm excited to see what else leadership gets up to.
And last question, Paula, as a Gen Z New Yorker, will you be supporting Zoran Mundami later this year?
I mean, I sure hope you guys would figure out how I would stand.
No, anyone but him.
And in fact, I'm going to be working very hard to make sure he's not elected.
So if anyone wants to come to New York and help out with that, please let me know.
We're going to make sure socialism does not take over.
Probably communism doesn't take over in New York City.
Absolutely.
All right, folks.
Paula Scanlon, give her a follow.
Incredible news, the BBB.
We've got Rich Barris coming up next year.
Human Events Daily on Real America's Voice.
Human Events Daily on Real America's Voice.
Where's Jack?
Where is he?
Jack, I want to see you.
Great job, Jack.
Thank you.
What a job you do.
You know, we have an incredible thing.
We're always talking about the fake news and the bad, but we have guys, and these are the guys who'll be getting published.
All right, folks, Jack Pesoba, QER, back live, Human Events Daily, Washington, D.C. And I think it's time as we head towards America's birthday.
I think it's time for a polling update.
And what better way to do that than to bring on the people's pundit himself, Rich Barris, the founder and executive of the Big Data Poll.
Rich, what's going on, man?
Living the dream as always, Jack.
How about you?
Happy moment.
I can't wait for America's big, beautiful birthday tomorrow.
But Rich, when we're getting down to it, there's been a lot of back and forth about the president's poll numbers this month, or I should say really during June, going back and forth.
And there were a lot of people making comments saying, hey, what's going on?
He's making some moves that a lot of people didn't expect.
Are his numbers going up?
Are his numbers going down?
We have a clip that I want to show that kind of highlights this from CNN.
Guys, let's run that.
I mean, every politician would like this number here, especially to see it go up.
How about compared to other presidents who were Republicans?
Yeah, it's history making.
It's history making.
What are we talking about here?
So why don't we look back?
We have all the presidents, Republican presidents going back over the last 35, 36, 37 years.
What are we talking about?
GOP, who strongly approved five months in.
Look at this.
George H.W. Bush, Bush 41, 46%.
Bush 43, 59.
You see Trump, the first term, 53.
But look at this, 63%.
He beats all the other Republicans on the board here.
And I was looking even back since Reagan.
And get this, Donald Trump beats Ronald Reagan when it comes to the strongly approved five months.
And of course, Reagan was coming off that high after that assassination attempt.
So the bottom line is Donald Trump is making history with the Republican base.
He is more beloved by this Republican base than any Republican base loved any GOP president five months in.
It is history making history.
All right, Jack Pasovic, here we are back, and that's Rich Barrett.
So, Rich, when we're looking at this, these numbers, and I've seen a lot of conservatives sharing this, I say, well, wait a minute, this is strong approval among Republicans, which is great and certainly what we want, absolutely.
But it doesn't really tell the whole story, does it?
No, it really doesn't.
And, you know, Jack, the problem with clips like that and arguments like that is that Trump's base is not only Republican.
So there's a little bit of good news and a little bit of bad news for the president.
The good news is there are also more Republicans under Donald Trump than we've ever measured.
Democrats are in a registration collapse, but they're also in an identification collapse when a pollster calls and asks, what do you identify as, right?
So there are no D plus, there should not be any D plus samples anymore because it doesn't exist in the real world.
But that being said, Trump's base, and this is why he wins when nobody else can win.
This is why he can win Michigan.
This is why he can win Pennsylvania, why he can win Wisconsin, right?
Why he wins Ohio by 13 points, why he wins Iowa by 13 points, Florida, 13 points.
You cannot win those states and not like that with those kind of numbers just from Republicans.
You just can't do it.
So Trump, he has gotten a base that is not just loyal to the Republican Party.
So that's the, those are the people that you really have to watch because in truth, you know, his strong approval among Republicans has held pretty steady since he's been elected to his second term in office.
Hasn't really moved.
Well, and this is exactly who we spent, Rich, when I would have you on, you know, every week during the election, you know, we weren't really talking about his approval among Republicans because politics is a game of addition.
And so the idea was all about building this coalition and expanding the MAGA tent out beyond the normal boundaries of just 4-4 Republicans or straight ticket Republicans.
It was how do you expand those low-prop voters?
How do you expand working class in the key states, in seven out of seven of the swing states, getting blacks and Hispanics on board?
Where you were the first person years ago and half a decade ago now to talk about how Hispanics, particularly Hispanic men, and finally, Pews, by the way, finally got out with this huge study saying, oh, wait, exactly what Rich Barris has been saying all along that Trump was going to win Hispanic men, which he did.
And so there's this huge gap, though, I think, between a lot of those and which you really would see in independence.
But even then, a lot of these people, which you've talked about a lot, they're not the type of people that just answer polls on a regular basis even.
It's very hard to poll those types of people.
But the way we can generate or the way we can measure this is through voting.
You can see the way that they voted.
So Rich, for those people, this extra group of people that's been added to the strong Republican base, what's going on in those types, the independents, let's call them, that, you know, where's their approval at?
Because when I see the CNN piece, they're not talking about it at all.
No, they're not, because of course, that's the group that wins or loses elections, Jack.
If you can get this group out, they're inclined to support, I don't want to say right-wing candidates, but they're definitely inclined to support the Trump agenda.
But what is that agenda?
And who are this group of independents and independent leaning, you know, they're really Republicans, but they lean that way.
They just don't, they have no loyalty to the party whatsoever.
And that's part, the reason why is part of who they are.
They're very skeptical people.
They're distrustful of government.
They're distrustful of anything.
They didn't even want to vote because their number one reason is that their vote doesn't matter, right?
The system is what it is and their vote doesn't make a difference.
Somebody like Donald Trump inspired them to go out and vote.
And the Republican Party's number one job should be to hold on to those people.
However, you know, I mean, it is what it is.
We have to call balls and strikes here.
Since the military strike in Iran, this group has soured.
I wouldn't say they're gone, but they were not happy with that.
This is what I think people lost sight of during that entire affair.
And his numbers have improved again over the last week a little bit, but we'll see what happens in the future.
What generally happens when there's an airstrike or even when America goes to war, you get a temporary rally around the flag effect, and that is typically fueled by people who may never vote for you, have never voted for you, but it's temporary and they'll shoot over to somewhat approve maybe.
And then typically not going to say they strongly approve, but they end up adding to the positive, your positive numbers.
But it comes at the risk of potentially losing support among people who only and always vote for you, right?
So if you can get them out, that is the group we obsessed over before the election, Jack.
Those are the groups that Donald Trump could get out that we on your show over and over again said, you know, the Ron DeSantis cannot.
Nikki Haley cannot.
This group is, you know, the Ohio River Valley, right?
Parts of Pennsylvania, southeastern Michigan.
Just think about who these groups are, Jack.
Southeastern Michigan from, you know, Dearborn to Saginaw and Macomb County.
These are not pro-military intervention people.
In fact, when we polled it, they made up the lion's share of the quarter of the country, said they wanted no role in the Middle East whatsoever.
So, you know, Donald Trump was smart to move on from this or try to move on from this and get back to his domestic agenda because that's what they were screaming for him to do.
Well, you know, it's so interesting because anecdotally, I had just two things that happened in the wake of all of this over the last, you know, couple of weeks here in the DC area is that I was up and I was driving around and I saw one of these.
I know I saw one of these.
It was a guy driving a pickup truck and on the bumper sticker, it said, I'm not a Democrat.
I'm not a Republican.
I'm an American.
And I'm like, that's the guy.
That's the guy right there.
He's driving a pickup truck.
He's working class.
He hates the parties, hates the parties.
And he loves America.
I'm like, that's the guy who's going to vote for Trump and not go out and vote for anyone else.
So that's a Trump only voter.
However, I also heard anecdotally from, I'll just say, a friend of mine has a father who's more of the MSNBC persuasion, which of course, you know, and I'm always hearing their arguments.
But, you know, what's interesting though is it gives me insight into sort of how the average MSNBC viewer is thinking.
And one of the things that I heard on the back end of this was he loved the Iran strikes.
He said, you know what?
It was the right thing to do.
It was the right time to do it.
And after having talked to you about this dynamic, I said, I went back to my friend.
I said, hey, do you think your dad would ever vote for, I know he's not up, but like, do you think your dad would ever vote for Trump on the back end of this?
He's like, no, no, never.
Absolutely not.
So he could, he could agree and he could agree with it.
So Rich, are you saying then that that's the kind of thing that might show up in polling as sort of a temporary, temporary boost, a sugar high, this rally around the flag effect that exists for a limited amount of time, yet doesn't actually translate to voting behavior?
That's exactly right.
And then also added to somebody like that would be like a Bill Crystal metro Republican or still identifies as a Republican, even though we know he's not.
Somebody like that, you know, the needle would move a little bit, but this guy would never actually cast a ballot for Trump or most, right?
91%, 95% of most Republicans.
And there's also something else I should know.
So throughout the duration of Trump's second presidency, his strong disapproval rating among independents has not hit 40%.
It did the weekend of these strikes, right?
So by Monday, it was about 40%.
Now that has come down again this week, and we'll see, but that is being fueled by the people who only, and if you get them out, they only vote for you.
That is being fueled by one.
So you risk that guy, you risk, you know, but temporary support for the support or temporary support of that guy, that gentleman that you just mentioned.
You risk losing those people, right?
So again, I want to move on.
So you're saying, you're saying that his disapproval among independents hit its highest ever in his second term, the weekend of those strikes when that took place and has gone down since.
But independents were largely swinging against this.
Yeah, that's exactly right.
And that's being fueled by those.
They're not, they're Republican leaning, but they're not Republican.
They also say.
And this will give people some great insight.
Every time somebody says they're an independent, we always follow up and try to prod them about what their leanings are.
And one of the questions that we ask is which party is more closely aligned with your views?
But one of the response choices is that they share little in common with either party.
You know, so they can either say that they lean more toward Republicans, more towards Democrats, maybe they're equal to both, or they share little in common with either party.
That is the group that turns sour over these strikes.
And that is the group, by the way, that always was the key group.
When we came, when I came on the show, I would tell you about this Trumper boss vote.
That's where they come from because they're just so, you know, they're disgruntled about the entire process, right?
So they don't, they don't like either party.
They don't align with either party.
So RFK had a nice chunk from this group.
But Ron DeSantis.
Yeah, your maha margin in so many of the states.
I mean, you've got suburbanites in that group.
You've got people who are just kind of checked out.
But I would imagine you have upper class, you know, sort of like upper middle class as well as working class group, people who are just not invested in politics or people who are checked out because of the years of Biden, Obama, Bush, Romney, and the rest.
This is fascinating.
We're walking you through the Trump coalition in the second term.
Jack Posobiec, Rich Barris, right back.
*Music*
Jack is a great guy.
He's written a fantastic book.
Everybody's talking about it.
Go get it.
And he's been my friend right from the beginning of this whole beautiful event.
And we're going to turn it around and make our country fight again.
Amen.
They said Gen Z would stay silent.
That we'd back down.
That we'd forget what's worth fighting for.
But this generation remembers.
We remember truth.
We remember freedom.
And now we rise.
This is more than a conference.
It's a call to action.
To reclaim the future.
To ignite a movement that cannot be ignored.
Student Action Summit 2025.
Featuring the boldest voices in the fight.
Charlie Kirk, Secretary Pete Hegset, Tucker Carlson, Steve Banner, Brett Cooper, Secretary Christy No, Riley Gaines, Brandon Tator, Jack Pessoti, Laura Inger, Megan Keller, Greg Gutfeld, Tom Homan, Congressman Byron Donalds, Russell Brand, Savannah Christie.
Join thousands of students, future leaders, and freedom fighters.
This is the battleground of ideas.
This is the Student Action Summit.
Register now at SAS2025.com.
All right, Jack Pasovic.
We're back with Rich Barris.
And, you know, I want people to understand that when we're digging into the numbers like this, there's a reason for it.
People say, why are you going so granular?
Why are you splitting the hair and you're going so deep?
I said, guys, listen, we live in a polarized country, a polarized country with a polarized electorate.
Much of this is because media consumption, generational shift, demographic shift.
You could talk about that pillar blue in the face.
And we talk about it all the time.
However, what we want to focus on here is winning.
And if you want to win, you have to put together a coalition of 50% plus one.
And so how did President Trump get to there in all of the swing states, seven out of seven of the swing states, and turn out the popular vote?
Because he found a way to go pocket by pocket by pocket by pocket by pocket, put this all together and boom, put up across the board the most massive victory anyone's ever seen.
And so that's why it's so Key to watch the shift of these pockets because these margins.
They say, Oh, you're just focusing on the margins.
Yeah, it's called the margin of victory.
The margin of victory.
That's why I watch the margin because that goes from winning an election to losing an election.
Rich Barris, help me out here.
You know, people are like, oh, why are you so focused on this?
Because this is winning versus losing.
And I'm sorry, but I want to keep winning and I don't ever want to stop winning.
And I think people don't understand, even though it's something I've been saying for years, is that the only thing that's consistent about political coalitions in this country is that they consistently evolve.
And you have to consistently observe them and watch.
And usually, almost always, at least I believe this, it's because voters are making a rational policy choice or they're making a rational choice to not vote at all.
And that Pew Research study that you cited in the last segment, Jack, that study showed exactly what we had been screaming about for two years, that there is actually more of these voters that Republicans could go get if they were focused and if they understood what we were saying and understood the significance of it.
Had all of them gone out to vote, it would not have been a marginal popular vote win.
It would have been an overwhelming one, anyway, five to seven points.
I mean, could you imagine a Republican presidential candidate winning the popular vote by five to seven points?
And you have to understand where these people are located.
They're disproportionately, they disproportionately impact the Electoral College.
So when you get these voters out in greater numbers, you're impacting the Electoral College count more than you would think, more than you would expect, right?
Just from adding X number of voters.
How could it swing the state that much?
Because they tend to live in the states that matter.
And so I don't know what matters more, right?
And it's also important to know that Republicans are on a timer with these voters because, and we showed this and demonstrated this during the Republican primary.
These voters told us that there really at that time was only one candidate they would go out and vote for, and that was Donald Trump.
So the Republican Party's job right now, do what you got to do legislatively, then move on.
And on the ground, behind the scenes, your job is to convince these voters that the party is becoming more like Donald Trump.
And that is really the entire argument.
You have got to make these people understand that the Republican Party's changed.
It's going to take up Trump's banner when he's no longer in office and he's going to move forward.
If they do that, you're talking about a Roosevelt-like coalition that will endure for 30 years.
So, I mean, that's why we obsess over these numbers, folks.
You know, it's the difference between the pendulum swinging back and forth temporarily, like it often does in American politics, or sometimes a big realignment comes around.
And that big realignment is historical, and it changes the trajectory of the electorate, like it did for Roosevelt.
By the way, it did so for Reagan as well.
You know, Republicans were kind of in the wilderness, and Reagan ushered in something Obama, by the way, was very jealous of.
He ushered in a 30-year change in the American psyche.
He got people to come out and vote Republican that had never in the past.
Ethnic Catholics, ethnic Irish, right?
So he changed that equation that you were just talking about.
And that's what Trump has the, he already did.
It's just that now Republicans need to be able to pick that up and also expand on it because you can.
The numbers are there to expand on it.
And I think this is so important, Rich.
You got to write this up, brother, because this is one of the most important things that I think you've uncovered.
And it's something that I think a lot of us can sort of sense it when we're out there, whether it's on social media or just reading comments and emails.
But you've put it together in this package that you've uncovered that I think is so important.
Because again, just like anything else in politics, when you take an action that benefits one group over another in your coalition, that runs the risk of costing other members of the group.
Rich Barris, where can people go to find you and get all of these incredible insights?
Best place.
We're everywhere, Jack, but the best place is on locals, peoplespundin.locals.com.
Peoplespundant.locals.com.
Thanks as always, brother.
Happy Independence Day.
Hey, Rich, and from the Posos to the Barris's, happy Independence Day.
