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April 2, 2025 - Human Events Daily - Jack Posobiec

02:09:00

THOUGHTCRIME: The Wisconsin Election Special

The Wisconsin Supreme Court race is the most important election of the year for conservatives. Charlie, Jack, Blake, and Tyler watch the results out of the Badger State, and also react to the outcome of Florida's two House special elections. Support the show

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	From the age of Big Brother.
	If they want to get you, they'll get you.
	DNSA specifically targets the communications of everyone.
	They're collecting your communications.
	Hello everyone!
	Welcome to the Wisconsin Election Special.
	I am taking advantage of my big opportunity to wear all of my favorite Green Bay Packers stuff.
	I am here right now with Tyler Bowyer of Turning Point Action.
	What's up Blake?
	How you doing?
	We're doing great.
	We're doing great.
	Hopefully we'll be doing great all night, but for now we're definitely doing great.
	Charlie will be joining us in just a few minutes.
	Any minute now.
	And we should have Jack Posobiec later tonight as well, I believe.
	Yeah, Jack will be joining just about the same time Charlie should be.
	All righty.
	So, but for now, we're going to open up shop.
	We're here, of course, to cover the Wisconsin Supreme Court election, the most important election of 2025, we've been saying.
	We also, of course, have results out of Florida.
	Those are already in.
	So I guess for those who haven't heard them yet, We should hit that first.
	We have two special elections in Florida.
	People were sweating that a bit over the past few weeks.
	Like, oh, are we going to somehow drop this against the odds?
	And the answer is no!
	We did not drop them against the odds.
	So we have very good news if you guys haven't seen that yet.
	We have the results in Florida.
	Randy Fine has won easily in District 6. And Jimmy Patronus has won very easily in District 1. Both of those, they're not fully in yet, but they're up by about 14 in each of those districts.
	You said you had some stuff you wanted to say about those, Tyler?
	Yeah, yeah, and this is a good breakdown just for everybody.
	So Florida just ended up being kind of a snoozer.
	There was a little bit of a drama that happened, so to kind of tee all this up.
	So you have two districts that were up.
	You have 6 and 1. Both were vacated by members of Congress.
	The one that's a little bit more famous, well known, is CD1 with Matt Gaetz, because you know Matt Gaetz.
	But the other district is actually Ron DeSantis' old district.
	And his district just got vacated for...
	What are you talking about?
	Who just left the seat.
	Oh, that was...
	Why am I spacing right now?
	Because you want to forget about it because it's our signal man, Mike Waltz.
	Yeah, Mike Waltz, the most famous guy of the week.
	Yes, exactly.
	So Mike Waltz had taken over for Ron DeSantis when Ron DeSantis vacated that district or what was most of the majority of that district when he ran for governor.
	And then obviously Matt Gates' district is CD1, which has always kind of been the same general area because that's the panhandle.
	So looking at a map of Florida and pulling it up Congressional District 1 has always historically been that top left-hand corner of the state Which is a really interesting part of Florida because this is Central Standard Time So their election actually ended an hour after Uh, the CD6, the Waltz District ended.
	Uh, and so you had, you know, basically Floridians on two different time zones.
	And the breaking point, I think, is right there at Walton County, which is where Matt Gaetz grew up and all that.
	And that's, I think, about half of that county is inside CD1.
	So, both of these sailed to victory.
	CD6, they were kind of up in arms this last week.
	Republicans were freaking out saying, oh my gosh.
	Mainly it was because the consultants were seeing how much money that the Democrat was fundraising.
	Yeah, it was a huge funding gap.
	I think we had maybe under a million and they had three million plus, I think.
	That's right.
	And so it was cause for concern because a lot of these districts don't really take that much money.
	Again, Freedom Caucus member, Ron DeSantis was from that district.
	It's a very deep red district.
	Again, plus 30 district.
	Trump won by plus 30. Matt Gaetz district, very red.
	These shouldn't be concerns at all, but they were getting a little bit sweaty under the collar this last week.
	Mainly because a lot of people, and a lot of people, Randy Fine, he's not as dynamic as you would probably cast a Trump.
	Right? Or Ron DeSantis, even.
	He's probably not as conservative, just outspokenly, as those guys.
	So a lot of people were a little bit aggressive and angry, saying, oh, we should have run someone more conservative.
	They got people more excited.
	And it turns out he's probably going to win by 15 points.
	Yeah, and so I guess that's the first thing we should talk about.
	So let's go to my screen here.
	And so this is the result in Florida's 1st Congressional District last November.
	So as you said, won by about 30. Matt Gaetz got exactly 66% of the vote.
	His opponent, excellently named Gay Valamont.
	Gay Valamont got 34% of the vote.
	This is just last November.
	And it's about the same in Florida's 6th district.
	So, now looking tonight, we have in the 1st district Jimmy Petronas, same opponent, Gabe Alamont, and right now it's 56.7% to 42.5%.
	So, as we said, that's close to 15 points, but that is going to be less than half of our margin in just a few months ago.
	So, Should we worry about that?
	We were talking to Charlie about this a bit earlier, and his take was special elections are weird.
	Just don't lose, move on.
	Yeah, I mean there's still a decent amount of votes to count, but I think it's gonna end up being about 95% in, so not too much movement.
	I guess we're probably another 5,000 votes.
	6,000 votes were outstanding.
	Also just to demonstrate what we've said on our show a lot is these are pure turnout battles.
	100% down to turnout because right now with about 95% of the vote in we have 164,600 total votes reported.
	So Patronus is going to win this with 93,400 votes approximately.
	Now let's compare that to last election where last election gave Alamont lost by We're good And
	so they're going to be fired up, so it's good if we can still beat them badly.
	But we should still, I shouldn't, I don't think we should just wave off that we lost by, or not lost, but that we that we shed 15 points from our margin in a few months.
	Yeah, I mean, the situation that is with, again, with these districts is that They're fairly deep red, so what ends up happening in these areas is that people get complacent.
	They go, ah, you know, Jimmy's gonna win, I don't need to show up, right?
	And they get a little bit more fired up as Democrats going, yeah, Trump's in the White House, you gotta show up.
	So, you have that, that's kind of the Tea Party-esque thing.
	I think the thing that we should be reading here in this is that The Democrats aren't nearly as fired up as they need to be in order to create some kind of political tirade or the kind of storm, I won't cuss, but the turd storm that they want to create for Trump.
	They seem very fractured, not focused.
	I mean, it's not like today has like 50 elections going on today.
	There's three elections, right?
	And they were feeling really good.
	That's why they raised all that money in CD6 against Randy Fine.
	And nothing came out of that.
	I mean, they basically got nothing out of that.
	The turnout at CD1, nobody was worried about, right?
	They didn't raise insane amounts of money.
	It's going to be about the same result.
	Which is like a plus 15. This is not a massive reaction to Trump.
	Now we do have Wisconsin coming up here and this is going to be the interesting part where we rock and roll tonight is to see what does it look like From Democrat maximum effort and these talking points against President Trump against Elon Musk,
	you know Obviously, we all know Elon was in Wisconsin this week Spent two days campaigning going out and talking to people Getting people signed up through his America PAC portal but they They will have this will be a total referendum on All of those feelings that we just got out of the 2024 election.
	And we've got some really interesting things happening on the ground.
	I mean, we're seeing things up live.
	We have Turning Point Action as this huge field team that's on the ground.
	We're gonna be talking about it all night.
	We're going to be joined by many people that we have that are inside the belly of the beast in Wisconsin.
	This thing could end up being a barn burner throughout the night if the turnout expectations of what we saw and what we're hearing across the state really do come true.
	I have a friend who flew in from DC to be a monitor there and he said the turnout for an off election in Wisconsin is absolutely insane.
	This is very different from Florida.
	In Florida, Democrats raised a ton of money and so we...
	Late in the cycle, sweat a little bit and put some effort into it late.
	Wisconsin, both of us have understood this is a very important race.
	We knew this race was coming up.
	It's not a special election.
	It's just an annual election for the Supreme Court.
	Well, yeah, they can be special.
	A lot of them end up being special.
	But Wisconsin's really interesting to me because what they do is they have traditional spring elections.
	So those Wisconsinites that we have in the chat, everyone that's listening at home knows this.
	There are spring elections and then there are fall elections, basically primary elections.
	And those are important elections for, you know, again, Supreme Court races, things like that.
	Having them in an off election cycle year is not great because, you know, you have these elections that happen.
	Sometimes they're consolidated with other things like presidential preferences and things like that, that you get higher turnout typically.
	What's crazy about this, Blake, is that some of those past Supreme Court races that have been held in the spring have been combined with those things, and we're likely to see a higher turnout this time immediately following the presidential election, which is Which is really interesting.
	It's it's a it's a it's a blip on the map of way off the normal radar But yeah, we're gonna see some we have to already some stuff I've got a whole list of things here to talk about and to go through we're gonna go through the maps We're gonna get into the specific areas.
	I just flew back in from Wisconsin.
	I got in technically today because this is after midnight Flew late last night.
	We our entire team has been on the ground pounding Polls are closing here in 15 minutes.
	15 minutes.
	And so as the polling places close, we're going to be going live with Charlie waiting for those results.
	We're expecting those results.
	It will be a lot more dry.
	In Florida, we had that benefit where Florida, just to style in every other state, they get all their votes counted in about an hour.
	They count their early vote beforehand and they can just release it as soon as the polls close.
	So we had 65% of the vote was basically tallied within a half hour and it hasn't taken long to do the rest.
	Wisconsin, It's going to be like it was election night.
	Drawn out, we'll be getting it county by county, very slowly, and if it's a close race...
	We're not going to know till very late maybe tomorrow If it's a bloodbath, of course, it not as well And and I want to I want to tee all this up for everybody's listening at home You guys are getting the pregame show here before Charlie steps in in just a few minutes We're expecting Charlie any minute now Jack Pasovic will be joining us any minute now, but the the pregame is this and this is the entire video Breakdown and we'll get into the maps.
	I don't do you have one of the Wisconsin maps pulled up real quick.
	Sure. Sure Why don't why don't we go through this so you guys get a good idea?
	There's basically a way to look at this in Wisconsin you have so I've got yeah, we can put up here We don't have any results in yet, but we can get a blank map of Wisconsin We're gonna zoom into some specific areas here.
	So I'll have you zoom in if we want to pull that up on the stream And go to me go to me Let's go to Blake.
	So there's the state of Wisconsin as we're going in and before results are released We should be seeing some initial results as early as about an hour after polls close.
	That's gonna be 9 p.m Central Standard Time or Central Daylight.
	What are we on Daylight Time?
	We are on Daylight Savings Time.
	Okay, so Central.
	Except in Arizona.
	Daylight Savings Time.
	So Central Time about 10 p.m Eastern so Here in Arizona, we will be at about 7 p.m.
	So and on the on the on the west coast There's two Ways to look at Wisconsin.
	There's two major pockets.
	One is you have the Milwaukee Wow area So if you zoom into Milwaukee, we have Waukesha for those that aren't familiar This is yep.
	So we've got our headquarters is actually right in Waukesha I don't know if you're are you able to zoom in?
	Look at the counties a little closer more closely.
	We can we can just do it manually like this.
	So we have Waukesha This is directly west of Milwaukee.
	Yeah, so Waukesha County is right on the border.
	This is kind of your traditional This is your western Suburb of Milwaukee.
	So as Milwaukee is right up against the lake as you go out further it gets more conservative more conservative Milwaukee It's been, you know, your Wauwatosa that's right on the border of Waukesha.
	And Waukesha is a deep red, you would consider this a deep red county.
	Historically it's been deep red.
	It's a suburban rural county.
	It has some very rural parts to it.
	Super suburb-y.
	Let me bring up how it voted in the last election.
	Let's bring that up here.
	So this is the first W in the Wau counties.
	So you have Waukesha, Ozaukee County, and then you have Washington County.
	All three of these counties are what can offset Milwaukee.
	So you have deep blue Milwaukee County that we know is, is, you know, inner city, which is not huge.
	It's not a huge inner city, but it's an inner city nonetheless.
	And that's deep blue.
	And then you have the three red counties that are around it.
	This, if the red counties can offset Milwaukee, you're in good shape.
	We're trending towards that.
	So the pundits believe, the data experts believe, we're looking at this with our data team at Turning Point Action.
	We believe we're trending towards that.
	So that's step one, victory one.
	Step two that we'll get into that we have to keep our eye on tonight is Dane County.
	Dane County is the home to University of Wisconsin-Madison.
	We spent a ton of time there.
	That is the historical epicenter for all things Wisconsin sports, right?
	So you look at that.
	I don't think it's all things Wisconsin sports.
	Well, I mean, I would argue that a lot of Wisconsinites, I mean, they really value Badger football, you know, outside of your Packers fans.
	Which is, again, Green Bay is outside of the Milwaukee metro area.
	So Milwaukee's not really looked to the same outside.
	I mean, you have the brewers who are really outside of the main part of the city.
	You have downtown, you have the Bucks, who are probably the least popular out of everybody.
	You have Packer fans, but then you have all things University of Wisconsin-Madison, you know, historic national champions, all of that that are there in Madison.
	This Space in Dane County is the deepest blue scariest most heavily populated place in all of Wisconsin So two things so I'm just looking at it now and so Waukesha So as we're saying deep red County, we won it by 20 points.
	Yep in Just a few months ago.
	And so we'll want to watch that if that's 50-50 not a good sign for us Madison 75 23 and yeah, that was a good day.
	Yeah, that was a good day for us.
	That's that's Dane is It's really incredible, it's incredible how blue Dane County is, considering it's not an urban core, it is the entire metro area of Madison.
	That's right.
	You very rarely see an entire metro area that's that blue.
	But we have a thing.
	Andrew just sent us this.
	Scott Pressler just tweeted this.
	He says, Have you heard anything to this effect, Tyler? Yeah, and it's not just there, too.
	They're also running out of them in Milwaukee County.
	So we've had reports, again, In the Milwaukee Wow area of lots of things.
	If you're in line, and this is really important, we have nine minutes left.
	If you're nine minutes away, drive to your polling place.
	You can stay in line, legally stay in line, and they have to service you, and they can't shut you down, kick you out, all that stuff.
	Once you're in line, stay in line.
	They have to let you vote.
	So that's updated news.
	But again, let's go back to Dane County.
	Dane County is your second tier part of this entire puzzle tonight.
	Dane County has to be offset by the rest of the state.
	It's not just Dane County.
	Dane County, if you look at the map, the election map for Wisconsin, with everything going on in the Supreme Court, Historically, especially during the Supreme Court race the south the south-central part of the state that that that borders down below that is a Real bad area for Republicans, so you've got Iowa County.
	You've got Sauk County.
	You've got Columbia You've got Rock County.
	You've got Green County Lafayette and then the border ones the western ones Crawford and Which is unfortunate because you know Crawford County or Susan Crawford is the opponent for Brad Schimel We'll get into the candidates in just a little bit Vernon and Grant have sometimes been a little bit too light pink or Very light blue Uh, yeah, oh yeah, yeah, you can put my computer up here, yeah.
	So we're looking at some of these, yeah, you mentioned Crawford, so these are a lot of those, I can't remember what the term for them was, but these are the counties that voted for Obama, often by a quite big margin, these counties along the Mississippi River.
	And then they swung towards Trump, I think they swung back to Biden again, now back to Trump.
	And he did do pretty well.
	Grand County, Trump won by 18 points.
	Uh, Crawford County, Trump won by 14 points.
	Rock County he lost by seven points, but I have to imagine that was a much bluer County in the past I would presume yeah, and again.
	This is the trouble area for Republicans Because you would think some of these rural I mean these are very rural some of these are very rural counties They don't have a ton going on in them that a huge population, but all of it stacks up And it really eats away at Your ability again, it's the Madison effect So you've got this ring around Madison and these and these different counties that are there and you I mean Jefferson County Rock County How about I saw some chatter today that turnout was not high enough in Kenosha County.
	Did you hear about that?
	Yeah, we'll get into that in just a second because that's the that's kind of the third part here I won't say a third part but this this plays into the Dane County Everything else the rest of the state Republicans have to do really well out to offset Dane So, your Milwaukee Wow will pull that out.
	So, what are the places that we have to do well?
	We have to do well in Kenosha County.
	We have to do well in Racine.
	We have to do well in Green Bay, home of the Packers, Brown County, home of Dixon and his Packers, and of course, Brett Galaszewski, who's a season ticket holder and owner of He fell for the ownership scam?
	No, he's a minority owner.
	He's got the certificate on the wall.
	He's got that non-dividend paying certificate.
	And then you've got Door County that's right there, too.
	That's historically the bluest.
	It's a sweet county, right?
	I mean, it's historically been pretty light blue for a long time, but you've got all that.
	So you've got to upset in a big way with turnout.
	Racine, Kenosha, Green Bay has to really show up big time to help really offset that Dane County disaster that we've got.
	But again, it's not just Dane County.
	For those who are listening, everybody's learning stuff here.
	This is also the other counties that are around Dane County.
	So we're going to have Brandon, who is our Turning Point Action Manager.
	He's also the chairman.
	Brandon Malley is the chairman of the Republican Party of Dane County.
	He's done a good job.
	You just brought up the numbers that came back.
	Trump won that at 23%.
	Okay. Trump won 23% of Dane County.
	Think about how low that is.
	I mean, a state like Wisconsin, you drive, if you've been through Wisconsin, you drive, I drive through that state all the time and I'm like, I cannot figure out how the state ever votes for Democrats.
	I can't figure it out.
	But then you pull into Dane County, you're like, oh, I get it.
	There's a lot of, it really is shockingly blue.
	There's a lot of Karens here.
	Yeah. It's Karen country.
	We're not going to use Karen.
	It's Karen country.
	We're not going to use the Karen slur, man.
	That's a lib label.
	They're Karens.
	They're lib Karens that are there.
	And I'm telling you right now, that is going to be the place that can be our undoing.
	I think Milwaukee Wow area, we're going to be set.
	This is my prediction for tonight before Charlie jumps on here.
	My prediction is that the Milwaukee Wow area, we're going to be doing okay.
	We're gonna do the job.
	That's where Turning Point has put all of our most of our operation was in a Waukesha Again, that's where our headquarters is we turned out as much of that deep red vote that typically doesn't show up We'll talk about the low propensity voters all night Our low propensity numbers and early votes we felt really good about The Democrats did not feel as good about their low propensity vote turnout in early They didn't have as successful of an early vote So this is all coming down to today,
	Election Day.
	Can we get all these votes out?
	Alright, because we are live, Valesco16 donated $5 to say that I look like a mid-Benjamin Bun with my Packers getup.
	Thank you, Valesco.
	Or Valsico.
	Valsico. So you can join you can join the conversation all night by the way yep anyone that submits We Blake has to read whatever you say I have to I'm training you guys to also want to read them so my reaction to that was that wasn't a good enough of You know of a diss a direct diss to Blake's face.
	Ooh. It sounds like Tyler's begging What can we What can we get?
	So yeah, polls are closing in two minutes.
	We have two minutes, guys.
	Charlie joining us very soon.
	Obviously, he's involved in a lot, so he is joining us as soon as he is able.
	And we've got all of our Wisconsin gear.
	So going back to this thing, we're going to be pulling up.
	You can expect within the next 30 to 45 minutes, we're going to start to see some results start trickling in.
	Let's go through some some things before Charlie gets here.
	We did hear that we had And in some you know reporting from across the state Turned out look like it was good The the clerk of Washington County, so go back to the Wow Milwaukee Wow Wow is Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington County Those four make up your four counties in the Milwaukee area Washington County is expecting record turnout today.
	It was two hours ago, I think she posted that there was over 70% turnout expected for today.
	That's high.
	That's a massive number.
	That is gigantic.
	I think the highest, I think she posted the next highest in recent years was 55%.
	That is insane.
	Yeah, so that's a good sign.
	So that's sign number one.
	Washington and Waukesha have good turnout.
	That's good for Brad Schimel.
	Ozaki has been one of these historical areas.
	So Ozaki is the northern part of, just north of Milwaukee.
	Ozaki has been underperforming significantly and dramatically of the last number of election cycles.
	So we're being joined by the RAV audience.
	So welcome to everyone on RAV.
	Welcome to the ThoughtCrime live stream of the Wisconsin special election.
	We're waiting here.
	Oh, 10 seconds.
	Ah, okay.
	All right.
	It's good practice.
	Five seconds.
	All right.
	Everyone gets to hear it twice.
	Now we go again.
	All right.
	Welcome to the RAV audience.
	Welcome to the ThoughtCrime livestream of the Wisconsin special election.
	I'm here with Tyler Bowyer.
	Both of us are waiting on the polls to close in Wisconsin, which are closing in three, two, one.
	Now, okay, now the polls are closed in Wisconsin.
	We'll be getting joined by Charlie Kirk in just really any minute now.
	We'll be having Jack Posobiec join us later as well.
	If you're in Wisconsin, And you're in line, stay in line.
	Don't worry about our stream.
	You can listen to it while you're in line.
	You can listen to it while you're voting, whatever, with headphones in like you're at a baseball game or something.
	But if you're in line and let your family and friends know, stay in line.
	They have to let you vote once you're in line.
	So now this thing's locked down.
	Polls are effectively closed.
	So let's just, for the new people who just joined, let's just repeat what you said about the turnout levels we're seeing compared to past elections.
	Yeah, we'll set this up for all of our Real America's Voice audience here.
	We are seeing and hearing reports of record-level participation today on Election Day, which is good.
	We are going to break down again here for everyone There's really two elements that exist within Wisconsin that we have to look at tonight.
	We're going to look at this all throughout tonight.
	You have your Milwaukee Wow area, which is Washington, Ozaukee, and Waukesha counties that are right around deep blue Milwaukee County.
	And then you have Dane County, which is the deepest, darkest, you know, hole of Democrat voters that you have to make up with the rest of the state.
	And the rest of the state, you can make that up in Racine and Kenosha and Green Bay and other parts the more rural votes across the state which are fairly sparsely populated.
	So what we're seeing and we're hearing is really good reports of turnout happening in the suburbs.
	So, zoom back in to Milwaukee County.
	Milwaukee County, we have lines out the door, we have lots of people, we have reports right now from our team at Turning Point Action who have done an impeccable job.
	Turning Point Action has the largest field team that we've kept on the ground.
	I just got back in from Wisconsin just early, early this morning, late last night, and the team has been grinding and busting their tail for the past, really, four months.
	Uh, since we've put people on the ground.
	Now, now that polls are closed, we're stepping back and looking at this thing and we're taking nothing for granted, making sure every single person stays in line, gets their vote count in.
	We were curing votes all day.
	We'll talk about what that means.
	But Washington County has their clerk.
	That's like their chief elections person.
	The chief elections person said today, Washington County, they are expecting record turnout.
	That is huge for the Republican conservative Brad Schimmel.
	All right, do we have Jack?
	Yo, yo!
	Yo, Jack, welcome to the stream.
	How's it going?
	Where's your cheese head, man?
	You've got everything else.
	My cheese head got all beat up.
	I think it's still in South Dakota somewhere, but I've got my...
	I think this hat is signed by Leroy Butler Hall of Famer of the Packers 1996 Super Bowl team Your cheese head got beat?
	We're happy about Florida, and we're tentatively feeling positive towards Wisconsin.
	I know reporters have been hitting me up all day, Tyler, I'm sure you as well, regarding this thing, and we say, look, I I do think I'll just I'll just say right right off the bat I do think that there's a lot of people who pay Way too much attention to try to reading read the tea leaves on special elections I think that special elections are just that they are special elections.
	They are not regular elections.
	They're they're in single localities They are low turnout.
	There's a million like parochial and home factors that can affect all of them like the one in Florida 6 for example, you know, congrats to our guys over there.
	But there's this tendency to try to say, oh, you know, if this goes a certain way, then that means such and such thing for the country, when in reality, like, that's just, it's just not how special elections works.
	And if anyone has ever worked in actual special election, I've worked tons in Pennsylvania, you would, you would realize that's just kind of, just kind of how it is.
	It's, it's all in effect.
	But that being said, it is an interesting way to see the deployment of the Wisconsin Field team for turning point action just clearly the best field team in the entire country right now when we see what turning point action is able to do and was able to bring to bear across really just across precinct after precinct and I've been I was literally just on the phone with a good friend of Edith Duffy from Uh, from Wisconsin.
	People know her.
	She's on Bungino Report now.
	She guest hosts and co-hosts on human events all the time.
	Her father, Sean Duffy, of course, was a former congressman from there and now the Secretary of Transportation.
	So, you know, and even the people of Wisconsin saying like, you know, it's just really hard to kind of tell what Wisconsin is going to do in one of these.
	So, We will see.
	Tentatively, things are looking positive, but we will see.
	Well, and the positive vibes that everybody's throwing in here is this, and again, we'll kind of sort this out numbers wise.
	So last last election that happened in 2023, there was a fairly weak candidate, Dan Kelly, and there was no focus placed on this race whatsoever.
	There's no national help.
	Again, this was Ron and McDaniel.
	I remember it was very lonely.
	We were talking about it on our show as a big deal, and it was really, It was arguably an even bigger deal than the one we have now because we had a conservative Wisconsin court.
	So the conservative Wisconsin court was represented by some really strong conservatives that had some real deep concerns about things going on in Wisconsin.
	And again, Dan Kelly ran.
	He lost.
	He had basically no support.
	He wasn't, I mean, admittedly wasn't an exciting candidate.
	Didn't raise that much money.
	Uh, but the RNC, that was Ronald McDaniel era RNC, it was, this was part of the issue, right?
	It was like everybody was like, oh my gosh, red alert, like nobody cares about this stuff and we have an election next year.
	In 2024, and nobody's doing anything in Wisconsin.
	And that's part of what motivated us to get involved was that race was, you know, that early loss in Wisconsin to say, hey, we need to go open an office in Wisconsin.
	We need to do things at Turning Point Action.
	God bless Charlie, because he totally agreed and was fully behind that effort.
	And we've put more full time people on the ground.
	Our team is incredible.
	We'll get into all the work that they're doing.
	We'll showcase some of that tonight.
	That work was like, that was the red alert, red flag of things are not in good shape.
	All right.
	So Charlie, can you hear me?
	I can, and I am going to go vomit for a second because I'm looking at Blake.
	It's disgusting and should never be televised ever.
	And so that's just...
	By the way, Blake, I hope, I hope the Packer faithful rise up in record numbers.
	It would...
	Well, they're not gonna rise up if you say you're gonna vomit.
	You gotta give us some love, Charlie.
	Tonight, we gotta be Packer fans.
	You've gotta talk about our record 13 NFL titles.
	I will say this.
	As a Bears fan, I think Aaron Rodgers truly did summarize it.
	I own you.
	You guys own us.
	There's just nothing.
	There will be a day where the tides reverse, maybe, but I got nothing.
	Like, you know, the Michael Jordan-LeBron thing, I had a whole debate on campus.
	That I will go down to the mat on.
	I got nothing.
	We had one good team, and they were the best football team ever assembled in 1985.
	Other than that, the Packers are, by every objective measurement and metric that we have, a superior franchise to the Chicago Bears.
	I'm sorry, I got nothing.
	That'll get the Packer faithful.
	I have to live in reality.
	I have to live in reality.
	We can't do this delusional stuff, but I'm still You know, Andrew actually sent me a text.
	He said, Charlie, just brace yourself for what you're about to see.
	I'm like, what is going on here?
	And this is what I have to come on air for.
	So hello, everybody.
	I believe we're on Real America's Voice.
	Is that right?
	I want to thank you guys for all of you guys on Rav.
	And thank you to Parker and Rob for making time tonight.
	We are going to be going through some very valuable insights, guys, on this special election.
	It is election night.
	These are tough elections for those of us that are Republicans because the electorate has significantly changed from being a high prop turnout type of elections to now low prop elections.
	We as Republicans represent people that are waiters and waitresses and taxi cab drivers and people that are not necessarily as engaged in politics as high propensity voters.
	We are going to say this see this on full display in the great state of Wisconsin and if we lose in Wisconsin it will be simply And strictly because of turnout.
	We will not lose to Crawford.
	We'll not lose to Soros.
	We will lose to the couch.
	That is what will happen.
	If we win, it will be a testament to, quite honestly?
	The grassroots muscle that I have been so blown away and encouraged by what Tyler and Brett and Turning Point Action has done.
	We got Don Jr. there and myself a couple weeks ago, despite feeling like death, we helped get that done.
	And so I have no idea what's going to happen tonight.
	The polls suggested outside of Trafalgar that the Democrats were going to win significantly.
	The DC consensus, in fact, I had four or five DC insiders.
	Tell me, uh, that Crawford was going to win easily.
	We don't know.
	Uh, we have no idea if this is, if this is within, I know there's no, there's, there's really no special coming close.
	Really only counts in what horseshoes and hand grenades is what they used to say only comes close in horseshoes or hand grenades.
	However, there, there will be a remarkable story.
	If this is sub two points, not one that I want everyone, you guys are not going to care about that.
	But in order for us to long-term win special elections, we have to try to close those gaps.
	So tonight is incredibly important.
	If we win this special election here in Wisconsin, It means that we have a much higher likelihood of keeping the house in 2026 and 2028.
	If we win the special election tonight, it very well might determine the future of the next presidential election in 2028.
	That is how much these elections matter.
	And if we lose, we will lose the people that decided to stay on the couch and not fill out a ballot or show up to a voting precinct or voting center.
	So we'll see.
	All right.
	So Tyler, I just have joined now.
	Before we get into that, can we just re-summarize for everyone that is joining on Real America's Voice and all the other networks and all the place that we are streaming, I should say.
	We won the two special elections in Florida.
	Is that correct, guys?
	That's right, Charlie.
	Old Morning Joe's Old District.
	Matt Gaetz's Old District.
	Yeah, CD1.
	Looks like it's going to be about a 15-point victory.
	And then Randy Fine.
	And the elusive this last week, the elusive CD6 playing the Tom and Jerry game this week and avoiding the hammer also looks like it's going to end up probably a little bit shy of 15 points, but they're close to at least a double digit victory for the Republicans.
	So that's good.
	I mean, that so tonight will not be catastrophic.
	Which is important.
	I mean, understand that Democrats would have loved to have flipped a House seat or two.
	This also means that we are going to increase our probability of passing that one big, beautiful bill.
	They were waiting for these two seats, and also they could not afford to lose that extra seat to have Elise Stefanik go to the House.
	Jack, speaking more broadly, Jack, can you talk about the obvious issue that we have Yeah, will be about can we bring presidential cycle voters into a midterm election, into a special election?
	Jack, let's dive into that.
	so the main thing is this.
	There's really two brands at play here.
	And through him, you know, the brand of MAGA and America First and everything he's associated with.
	And then there's also the brand of the Republican Party.
	And one thing that we saw consistently, if you look at all seven of the seven swing states, President Trump ran ahead of pretty much every Republican in the entire country.
	Now, certainly there's, you know, there's a few things that shake out here and there, but by and large, that's what you saw.
	But the Trump brand is higher with the people than the Republican brand.
	And of course, that's because these low propensity voters, these, you know, just people who are really not clued into politics on a regular basis, they're not watching human events, they're not watching the Charlie Kirk show, they're not watching Steve Bannon.
	So they're sitting there going, all right, you know, I like Trump, I want to get Trump in, but pretty much everything else gets kind of filtered out.
	They're not the type of, maybe they're into sports more, maybe they're into movies more, entertainment, maybe they're just into personal stocks and personal trading and day trading, all that stuff.
	There's a lot of things to do in this country, I get that.
	Trump wins with those voters very well.
	But the question of course becomes, it's like a two or even three step process to say, all right, if you like Trump, Then number one, you have to actually register to vote and get Trump out.
	This was, of course, the needle that had to be thread by Turning Point Action in the 2024 election to say, OK, how do you actually get Trump to win?
	There are people who thought that registering actually meant you voted.
	It's crazy the amount of stuff that people didn't realize.
	We thought if you had a driver's license, you were automatically registered.
	So that's step one.
	Then you have to say, all right, if you want Trump to win, you've got to get his guys in.
	And that's a totally separate election, which also people don't understand.
	And I'll see you Three needles that need to be thread to bring out those type of voters in a special election or even a midterm election.
	I mean, you know, step back for a second.
	And I know the chat gets, um, you know, doesn't believe it when I say things like this, but just, just think about it.
	Like go watch some, you know, like a Mark Dice video, people walking around the boardwalk or something.
	There are people who do not understand there are midterm elections.
	There are people who honestly think we only have elections every four years in this country.
	They don't know there's other elections.
	They don't understand there's other elections.
	By and large, they're not clued into the process whatsoever.
	They can't tell you their congressman's name.
	They can't tell you their senator's name.
	They can't tell you their governor's name.
	But a lot of those people also like Trump.
	So the goal for the Trump campaign or Elon Musk or Turning Point Action or Scott Press or anyone who wants to drive these people out is to go in and you have to do that education.
	You've got to start basically from zero and then work your way forward.
	But hopefully at least you've got that that fertile ground and a ground that's not really Uh the way that it used to be it's totally shifted because there's been a vibe shift in this nation from us being sort of this like center-right nation with a liberal with liberal institutions to where people are actually anti-establishment now in this country and they want Trump to succeed so there is a general vibe shift of wanting Trump being more MAGA wanting to see this out that doesn't necessarily mean more conservative and I think that's something a lot of um A
	lot of pro-lifers found out.
	I think it's also something that a lot of these ballot measures found out, and a lot of people found out as they were running.
	And so you're, by the way, you're seeing that with Randy Fine, you're seeing that with other people as we look at the outcomes here.
	But at the end of the day, it's going to be, you know, when you're talking about, let me think of it, Charlie, it's what is the inherent truth of a low propensity voter, even a no propensity voter, is they don't typically vote.
	We have initial Results starting to come in in Wisconsin.
	Yeah, put up put up the screen here.
	I can show that Great, so this is this is super early just for everyone in the audience It does look like there was an initial drop from Waukesha It looks like early votes but that's and then a few others Kenosha and La Crosse County, but this this is promising it looks like so we have this yes, you said early vote Waukesha 15% of the total vote estimated and And it is 61% for Brad Schimmel.
	Is that how you say it?
	Yep, Schimmel.
	And 39% Crawford.
	That is better than Trump did in...
	That was 59-39, I believe, in last November.
	So there's a ways to go because they're probably still dumping in early votes.
	A lot of this is early voting that's coming in.
	We're seeing some others.
	Fond du Lac just came in.
	A few others.
	That's the home of We're good And
	the early vote the initial early vote is that he's winning basically 60-40 right now So that's a great start.
	That's a very promising start because we know oh, we got Dane County Dane 3% of the vote Dane County not bad.
	So Dana's super lib This is looking almost identical to the 20 this is we won This is a great start and I don't want to get too excited here guys But the great start is early votes.
	We're at Brad Schimel got 26% of the vote That's a great drop for Brad Schimel in Dane County.
	So these are early votes.
	What is the configuration of these votes?
	So Wisconsin, and I'll set this up for everybody that's listening at home here, this is not a historic early voting state.
	Early voting, like many places across the country, really took off heavily with absentee voting during COVID.
	So there's been a substantial increase over the last number of years obviously Democrats have pushed that But early voting has been heavily Democrat because of that there was a ton of absentee voters that were signed up and the Joe Biden, you know that that Who's it?
	What's it campaign?
	And so you have a lot a much heavier like a lot of places that we see much heavier presence with Democrat early voters over Republican We're getting it we're getting a few more results here and they now are estimating 22% of Waukesha So pretty big chunks and 62 38 he is still running several points ahead of Trump.
	He's increasing.
	That is good.
	Now some are not as great So we have a Winnebago County here where Oshkosh is that is 66 34. That's a county that's your one So that that's your might be low prop problem.
	That's your low prop.
	So Trump was leading whether or not the country folks show up Yeah, so you're Charlie's exactly right so the the and again, Winnebago County is not totally rural But it's it's rural ask our college there or something that you'd get this super blue drop.
	So everybody knows the the great Winnebago bands That but this is this is actually a I believe this County the day after the election with late Counts ended up flipping back to Kamala.
	I could be wrong about that.
	I'm looking at it here in last fall It was and this is the final result.
	It was There a bunch of libs there.
	Yeah. Yeah, but we won we won Winnebago County with Trump and now we're way down But that's in contrast to Fond du Lac.
	We're doing fine Manitowoc Doing fine there.
	So all these other ones are results have been good Kenosha.
	We are down 52 48 And that's a flip.
	It was 52-48 for us last November.
	That's a great entry point though for early votes.
	Early votes in Kenosha.
	I mean, that's right along the border of Chicago.
	This is going to be way closer than all the D.C. people thought.
	It's going to be probably under three, plus or minus three points.
	Charlie, this is a great start to tonight.
	This is exactly, if you're Brad Schimel...
	No, no, but it's without Milwaukee.
	It's without Milwaukee.
	Yeah, but Milwaukee...
	I would say this, Charlie, Dane County's scarier.
	Yes. Oh, well, Kenosha just flipped towards us.
	So 25%.
	Brad Schimmel is up by one point.
	Two points now in Kenosha, actually.
	This could be a barn burner.
	G, I wonder what could have happened in Kenosha.
	All right, let's play a piece of tape here from CNN.
	Let's play cut 193, please.
	In the city of Milwaukee, we just learned from the Executive Director of the Milwaukee Election Commission that multiple sites were either running low or ran out of ballots.
	At least, those were the reports that they were getting earlier this evening.
	Now, according to the Executive Director, they are sending more resources to these places, trying to make sure that they have what they need.
	Seven sites in particular, she noted, had no ballots, or at least made reports of having no ballots.
	Now, obviously, she made the point Tyler, what does that mean?
	Translate that for us, please.
	So we have multiple counties where we have reports that they're running out of ballots.
	So we've heard this game before here in Maricopa County.
	Where we had this in Pennsylvania as well.
	Jack remembers this from before.
	But they were running out of ballots.
	And I believe it was Ozaukee County, Washington County.
	We heard these reports in Milwaukee.
	And then I believe Rock County, which is not uber friendly to conservatives.
	They were running out of ballots too.
	Oh, and then we also heard we had an issue in Winnebago County as well, where they were running out of ballots in Winnebago County.
	One of our staffers on the ground that's there, Susan, just reported that.
	Which made us a little bit uncomfortable because some of these areas are not heavily conservative areas.
	So, you know, that's a bad situation in Milwaukee.
	That's a bad situation potentially in Winnebago and Rock County.
	So, what else?
	We're getting a lot.
	A lot's coming in now.
	We have almost 10% in Dane.
	It's still 75-25.
	That's about what we had.
	In the last one, so it's just gonna come down to what's the distribution?
	What's the overall turnout level and what's the distribution of early vote late vote?
	Well, we talked about this before Charlie got on but Charlie the the what you and I and Andrew we're talking about in the chat is is very much Applicable here.
	You have your Wow counties, Washington, Waukesha, and Ozaukee that have to offset Milwaukee I mean, this is a great start for Waukesha.
	Waukesha being at 62% with most of that early vote, that is fantastic.
	We heard lots of good reports of high turnout today in Waukesha County.
	That's going to trend heavily Republican.
	That's a fantastic start.
	Not as great in Ozaki.
	Ozaki's 54, 46. It's a smaller county, but that's not the same type of turnout that you saw with Waukesha, which is really carrying the load here.
	But the rest of the state has to offset Dane.
	So Dane County, you basically have to win to give yourself a chance.
	If you're Brad Schimel, you have to win Dane County by at least about 21%.
	You gotta get 21% of the vote and the rest can go to Susan Crawford.
	But if it's anything less than that...
	I mean, look, our office is in Waukesha and just to repeat the point, Donald Trump won Waukesha with 59% of the vote.
	With half of the vote in, Brad Schimmel has 60% of the vote in Waukesha with 42% in.
	That's a pretty good pace.
	I mean, I know that can change with more votes, but there must be—the betting markets are looking at this rather unfavorably.
	I want to be very fair.
	Blake, what are the betting markets saying and doing that we might be missing here?
	Yeah, so I'm monitoring this over on Calshi.
	That's one of the betting markets that exists now, Calshi.com.
	They have a market, you guys have it on the screen here, where you could, I'm looking at their estimated You could bet on the margin of victory.
	People are so degen.
	They'll bet on everything.
	So you have 2% slots.
	And how they've interpreted this is they've had the odds of a gigantic blowout go down.
	So the stuff where Crawford wins by 14 or more points has basically gone to nothing.
	But they also say the odds of a close race have gone down.
	So they have Schimmel by 0 to 2 down to about 8%.
	That's down about 6 points from just a bit earlier.
	And where they're really focusing in on is we have this spike of, we have Susan Crawford by 4 to 6 has gone up, by 6 to 8 has gone up, and then by 8 to 10, that's in the lead right now and has gone up the most, so they're looking at something like an 8 to 10 Crawford win projection.
	But we're, it's still a very wide range overall, but the initial response of the people who are Putting their money on it, so they're thinking pretty seriously about it, is they think the results trend towards a moderate Crawford win, but we'll remain optimistic until as we see the results come in.
	The really interesting news, Wisconsin Question 1, which adds voter ID requirement to the state's constitution, will pass.
	That will pass everybody.
	And that is obviously the right thing to do, and they've been calling it racist forever, but voter ID to vote will pass.
	It's amazing that a Democrat might win statewide if the question one also passes.
	So that should be a very good sign.
	That should be.
	Yes, it certainly helps, Charlie.
	And this was the beauty.
	I mean, the real smart thing that the legislature did was they forced this onto the ballot.
	That may be, ultimately, we may look back tonight and say that may be one of the many things that was the saving graces to this election that helped offset a significant amount of money that was spent by the Democrats.
	But this is, it certainly doesn't help.
	It doesn't hurt.
	You have probably, for Brad Schimel, added multiple points with the amount of people who showed up just for that.
	And it also helps, I can tell you out in the field, Charlie, with all of our people, was that it was an easy thing to explain to people and say, hey, we have to win the Supreme Court race.
	You have to vote in this election for voter ID.
	And then we need the guy on the Supreme Court to help protect that.
	Because they're going to try to get rid of it or minimize it any way that they possibly can.
	We have a ton of votes in, guys.
	We have to update.
	I'm sorry.
	We have a ton of votes in right now.
	It is now a 7-point margin, about 15,000 votes separating Crawford and Schimel.
	And I want to update that for the audience.
	It's about a 5-point margin-ish.
	Dane County looks to be reporting some more of their votes.
	So walk us, let's get the map back up on screen.
	Tyler, the margin now has Crawford up about five points, about 14,000 votes.
	Walk us through what is necessary here.
	Yeah, so Waukesha County, it looks like we've gotten a decent chunk of the early votes.
	That's probably what was dumped in here first.
	You know, they're going to, we're not going to see results from day of election results yet until about nine o'clock central.
	So most of those are going to be reported closer to nine o'clock, so in about 30 minutes.
	So what you're seeing first are counties that have a central count in particular, but counties that are reporting their early votes.
	So again, remember, a lot of these early votes, we expect them to trend more Democrat.
	We expect them to trend to the left.
	What was really interesting is Dane County has been coming down Yeah, a little bit as they've been reporting.
	They only have about 20% in Which isn't that far behind Waukesha, which the the map I'm looking at right now is 34% in for the whole county, but you're going to see a Getting pinker and
	lighter We're Those all
	combined together ultimately decide what's going to happen in that offset to Dane County.
	So the margin is now 9 points and it's about 20, oh boy, 33,000 votes.
	So are we only seeing early voting across the state, Tyler?
	Is that what you're saying?
	Is that day of voting has yet to report?
	Is that correct?
	Yeah, most of the day of voting is not going to get reported until closer to 9. Because they have to they have to assemble all that bring it into the central count some of these some of these Counties don't even have central count So some of them do many of them don't Waukesha doesn't have central count so they got to wait for all those to come in And and there's all these different municipalities that are across the so you're not gonna see those get reported Until they're in and those aren't gonna start trickling in until about 9 p.m. Central
	So the reason we're down right now is because Madison is now up to 32% of the vote and that's double the overall amount We don't have any of Milwaukee though.
	So there's two big nukes.
	We're going to get hit by we're gonna get hit by the Madison Dane County nuke and we're gonna hit but hit by Milwaukee good news though Blake most I mean we're getting close to the point of Dane County's running out of early votes But do we know these are all early vote because I know certainly in 2020 I believe Milwaukee's early vote came last, their mail-in votes.
	So that's like the kind of famous, you know, 2 a.m. dump that they had.
	So they tried to pass a bill this last year in Wisconsin that forced everyone to get all the votes counted before Election Day.
	So that would have forced them to count them, I think it was either the Saturday before the election or the Monday before the election.
	That bill did not pass, so they don't technically have to do it.
	Now Brett Galaszewski, who will be joining us hopefully here in just a little bit, has been tracking Milwaukee County.
	He's the first vice chair of the Milwaukee GOP.
	He runs our national program, has been tracking how many votes they have left to count.
	As of about 4 p.m. today, they only had 7,000 votes left to count.
	So that started the day at 21,000.
	They only had 7,000, but those are typically votes that are counted first, because again, where you have a central count, where those are all available, they will They will express those more quickly.
	Milwaukee's one of those places, and those will come out.
	Those mostly should be counted together.
	Now, they haven't reported those together because allegedly, and again, this is from Brett, is that they want to drop all those together once they're counted.
	So your point is potentially valid, is that we may not see Milwaukee's early vote count until midnight tonight.
	Central. Because they may drop all of that together and they may start actually showing Election Day first But in a lot of these other counties, that's what you're seeing right away and what what Charlie's saying is is Those are early votes that have already been recorded and brought in and that's what's dropping first So we don't want to like lead people You can go Charlie No, please Blake go so we don't want to you know Just give people hopium.
	So I want to flag a few things.
	We might want to worry about I'm looking here Kenosha County, that's 57% in, over half.
	We're down there by a point.
	That was a two-point Trump win last November.
	Ozaukee County...
	It's only down 300, so Schimel's only down 300 votes.
	Sure, but it's over half in, so we would need...
	Zoom in a little bit, guys, and this is the New York Times.
	We have to give credit to them.
	Yeah, so this is the New York Times live tracking.
	We have 57% in Kenosha County.
	We're not down by a large amount, but We are down, and this is a county we won by about the amount we won the state by.
	We need to win it.
	Yes. And similarly, we have Ozaukee.
	That's one of the wows.
	This is a Republican area, and it's only 24%, but we're down there by four.
	And Oshkosh up in Winnebago County, we're now over halfway in there, and we're down there as well.
	And that's, I think we won that by about 10. Let me check that.
	Yeah, we won that 52-47, so we won that by five in the last race, and so you do need those to turn.
	Another trend we're seeing is Dane County.
	Obviously, we don't need to win that, but we need to keep it closer.
	It's now 77-23, whereas for Trump that was 75-23, so we're doing a little bit worse than Trump now, whereas we were doing better when that first dump of a few percent came in.
	Yeah, and again, it's early, right?
	Because closer to 9 p.m.
	We're gonna be seeing those election day votes, which is gonna be helpful.
	If it's not helpful, right?
	If those don't start turning, right?
	That's a problem.
	The Democrats needed a pretty significant turnout of early votes.
	We know they didn't get what they wanted to get on that front.
	The question is, is did we get enough turnout today?
	And again, this is something we haven't really discussed in the chat, but Our models show with our team that we need probably 2.2 million people to vote in this election To give Brad Schimel a chance to offset the early votes from the Democrats That's that's kind of the trend that we need to be looking at right now We're looking at how many votes have been cast the total right now that have been counted is 624,000
	so You're looking at you know we're A little under a third of the total votes, potentially.
	This says 28%, right?
	So, we're trending towards what seems to be believed to be a 2.2 million person election.
	We have our first Milwaukee drop, by the way.
	Wow, it's enormous.
	Yeah, that's gonna be...
	We have 61% of Milwaukee County in, abruptly.
	72-28 versus, that was 68-30 for Kamala.
	So she is running ahead of what Harris, Susan Crawford is running ahead of what Kamala did in Milwaukee County so far with almost two-thirds in.
	Right, and the question is going to be is, you know, what kind of votes are those?
	So we're going to have to wait to hear from our experts on the ground.
	Are those early votes or are those election day votes?
	So we're at 28% of the vote in.
	Let's just update on the macro.
	Susan Crawford commands a nearly 107,000 vote lead.
	No spin, that's a lot.
	There's still a lot of votes left on the board.
	That's a 17 point lead.
	The configuration of that, it will likely tighten.
	How much it will tighten, we will see based on election day votes.
	There are a ton of red counties that have yet to perform.
	But understand as you guys look at this map, It's, it doesn't, what is not, can you guys please go back to the entire statewide?
	Thank you.
	What is not shown on this map, is yes, red county, red county, red county, is what Donald Trump did, is he brought in voters that have never voted, and he made red counties redder.
	Meaning the turnout was so high.
	The Richter scale was that he made rural counties basically the power of a suburb.
	Where rurals used to just kind of be an afterthought.
	He combined like 50 rural counties together where it basically became its own Waukesha.
	And if you are not able to mirror that or...
	It's a serious deficit right now.
	About 115,000.
	And Blake brought up a couple of things that are really important for us to keep our eye on.
	So Waukesha County right now just dipped down below 60. Bradsham has got to be at 60-61% minimum to have a fighting chance statewide, or at least to offset Milwaukee.
	Ozaukee County is a real problem.
	Ozaki County is right now like Blake mentions Brad's running four points down again.
	This looks to be mostly Early votes, so I I would I think I believe that this is early vote still But you know, you don't want to be down in Ozaki.
	You need to win Ozaki by a healthy margin on election day To help offset those Milwaukee votes now, Washington County hasn't reported it.
	I'm going I'm going to be The very blunt direct communicator.
	This is not a great map for us right now.
	And it is demonstrating of a high prop electorate as we have built a low prop party.
	A 19 point deficit and a now 137,000 vote deficit with 33% reporting.
	I don't like our odds.
	I'll be very honest.
	It might end up getting much closer and much tighter, but we are not seeing the juice and the squeeze of high, high turnout from some of these areas that we will need.
	I'm not saying that is 100% correct that we're going to lose.
	I'm just going to be honest.
	I'm not seeing it in the cards right now.
	Blake? Well, I want to look at the—we've talked about, you know, the betting markets.
	We like to look at the betting markets because that's what people who are Willing to put their money where their mouth is, are saying.
	And they're tracking what they expect the specific outcome to be.
	And they will be blunt.
	They don't see it as very likely we're going to win.
	They are narrowing in here.
	You can see all the odds for a close race are dropping.
	All the odds for a super blowout, those have fallen away too.
	They're settling in.
	Their favorite is Susan Crawford by 8 to 10 points, 36%.
	And they still have some odds for by more than 10 and some by a little less than 8. But that's what they're surging for right now.
	Yeah, and the real problem again is going back, Waukesha County, you have to have a dominant performance for Republicans.
	You have to turn out.
	We have to have as many voters out as possible for that to offset.
	Green Bay has not yet reported Brown County has not yet reported That's gonna be a huge thing to look at too.
	That's a that's a big population center that has shifted far, right?
	So Tony weed who's the new congressman that's up in that in that direction?
	We've got to have a a really severe severely high turnout to help offset And then you know, we talked going back to Kenosha and Racine Racine hasn't yet Uh, reported, but Kenosha is not looking as good as you would want.
	You would want Kenosha to be flipped right now, which is, you know...
	Now it's up to 73% in, and I mean, I'll be honest, Crawford has a bigger lead than she did before.
	Of all the votes?
	Uh, 73% of Kenosha...
	of Kenosha.
	73% of Kenosha County is in.
	This is a county that Trump won by about two points.
	Uh... I think it was actually three or four points, and we're down there by six, and that's worse than when it was at 50-50.
	Yeah, and now Dane County is about 50% in, and Schimel's down to 21%, which again, you're knocking on the door.
	That's the floor.
	The floor for him is like 20-21%.
	We got to keep that up in order for things not to go completely haywire.
	Now it's 57%, and he's hanging in there at 21%.
	Can't tap out yet on that.
	For sure, but you again, we want to compare.
	I am going again.
	I'm going to have to just come in because again, I don't want to waste people's valuable time, even though it might not be good for ratings.
	I give us an enormously low probability that this is going to be overcome.
	I'm just going to be honest.
	I'm not saying it's impossible.
	I want to look at the analytics.
	I want to look at the data.
	And the reason being is I'm just one state by state is that the low prop voters did not show up in the numbers that we needed.
	These are the working class men that showed up for Trump and then they just disappear.
	These are your carpenters and your welders and they work in the cheese factories and they build Winnebago's and they are the backbone of the country and we call them phantom voters.
	Donald Trump was able to basically get these people to appear.
	Donald Trump was able to get them to appear, and they've never been on anybody's data roll, they've never been on a voter file, they've never been anywhere, and poof, they show up, and they say, and guess what?
	Wisconsin had same-day registration.
	Now, hate to break it to you guys, Decision Desk, which has not been right or wrong about much of anything, has just said the Wisconsin Supreme Court race is over, defeating conservative Brad Schimel.
	So, hate to break it to you guys, but that is now Decision Desk.
	We'll keep an eye on here with with how the rest of This report comes out and it's it's again.
	We're still hanging in there Waukesha is now at 77% Still hanging at 58% which is not enough You got to be Waukesha's got to be at 62 63 percent again because of the size the magnitude of the county asked it's big enough Where if you win by that much which Waukesha used to win For conservatives by that much.
	That is again the home of Scott Walker.
	He lives there, not far, in Pewaukee.
	Pewaukee is one of the largest couch voter voting situations that we have.
	We talked about it with Charlie.
	The loss here isn't to the radical left.
	The loss is to our own people not turning out.
	And some of these wards...
	We lost to the couch.
	Some of these wards just don't, they have thousands of people who don't show up for these votes.
	So we're gonna, in last November we had 3.4 million people vote.
	This is going to be an enormously high turnout off election considering it's not a midterm, not a general in the fall.
	This is a spring election.
	We're going to break 2 million votes on this.
	It looks like it'll be 2.3 to 2.4.
	But that is a million missing voters where you'll be able to say if we'd had There will be 500,000 Trump voters from last November who did not show up, and we're going, it's going to be close enough that if we'd had, you know, plausibly half those people arrive, we might have won this.
	But not enough of those, and just, you lose by a few points, you know, as much as, you know, we won it in November, but we won it by 0.9%.
	There was not a lot of room We're good.
	One point it looks like and we've got to continue working on our strategy to get people whose engagement with voting as they may be voted for Trump in 2016 and voted for him in 2024 and Otherwise have largely avoided voting.
	We need to work on the strategy of getting those people to consistently vote in Midterm elections and in these off-cycle elections that well Because if the Democrats are the high-prop party, they'll have the advantage in every election that is not a November election.
	Well, we know what the solution is.
	The solution that we had in Arizona was you have to put full-time bodies on the low-prop voters.
	You have to have those people out for months and months and months and months, and you have to have enough people to be able to chase enough votes to win.
	You know, the forecast right now is saying it's probably going to be in the ballpark of about 1.15, 1.16 million votes that are going to be cast.
	Again, these are just projections, but 1.6 million votes.
	Sorry, 1.16 million votes for Susan Crawford.
	You've got to chase that many votes.
	You've got to get out.
	And this is much higher than people expected.
	This race is probably going to end up being well over 2 million votes cast.
	Our estimation was we needed 2.2 million votes cast.
	We might come out slightly underneath that, and that's part of what's not going to help Brad Schimel is we didn't get enough election day turnout.
	But that is where you look at this and you go, OK, well, how do you get that many people out to vote?
	You've got to put that many bodies on those people, and there's simple math to it.
	funds effectively one full-time person to chase somewhere in the ballpark about three to four hundred votes.
	If you want to win, and again, there's not, unfortunately, not enough exuberance for Supreme Court races from the right for donors to fund that many full-time bodies, but yeah, the difference here is probably going to be 150,000 votes, which, give or take, is another 500 full-time people you have on the ground.
	The left has those people already, and we know this because they have the unions.
	They give union workers time off, they already have the C4 set up, they pay them.
	Our side doesn't have that.
	So you have to build it, you have to fund it, and you have to keep it permanent.
	Well, and Tyler, just to piggyback on what you're saying there, what people have to understand is that States in that northern tier from Michigan over, particularly working with the labor unions over there, traditionally speaking, they have this massive Democrat infrastructure,
	Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, that's existed for basically a generation at this point, where they literally have people who, as you say, are paid full-time, 24-7, 365 days a year to do Democrat politics, to work Democrat politics.
	So a Donald Trump-type candidate comes up, and yeah, that'll get working class people to cross the line, to get more active, to come down out of work, to take time out of their busy lives, because they're working class, they're working, to go and cast a vote for Donald Trump.
	But any other Republican, like I was just saying, is going to have to work ten times harder.
	You have to thread three needles to be able to get those same type of workers to come out.
	Democrats, on the other side, as you're saying, Tyler, don't have this problem.
	Democrats have, look, and you think of the Democrat worker, right?
	It's so much easier for them to do that type of work, fill in an absentee ballot, fill in an early ballot, mail-in ballot, because a lot of them are more of the white collar workers, a lot of them are more of the You know, working in an office or in many cases working from home these days, you're working at universities, you're basically paid to be a Democrat, you know, paid to be a liberal 24-7 and to make more liberals like over there in Madison.
	So there's a lot of inherent issues with having the low prop turnout when you don't have Trump on the ballot.
	And these are issues, by the way, the Democrats have been working with for a long, long time.
	And this is where their control of the institutions statewide in places like Wisconsin.
	really comes into play.
	Well, the institutions like unions, the teachers'union, for example.
	Yeah. You know, you have – did we lose Charlie for a second here?
	Yeah, you just step away for a second.
	You have the teachers'union.
	You have – I mean, you have a lot of people in a lot of places who are already assembled.
	Our site has to assemble these people.
	You have to prepare.
	You have to hire them.
	They have to have jobs.
	Like, you can't just – This is where the unions maximize, right?
	They have a full-time job and they go.
	Oh, you can take the next three months off and go campaign Yeah, we'll pay you and you get basically double dipping you get your normal salary you get your time off and then you get your The c4 the the nonprofit money that they'll throw at you to go do this work and chase votes and our side Again, this is where we're screaming from the rooftops is if you want to break that threshold if you want to break through You're not gonna have Trump on the ballot each time that makes it easier to do that, right?
	That's where we got so lucky this last election we were lucky because it was easy to get people to go give money to help support Trump and then to help go chase votes for Trump and It's a much tougher uphill climb, uphill battle with a relatively unknown candidate.
	And again, Brad Schimel is awesome.
	He is an incredible dude.
	Legit, easy to work for all that stuff, but people just don't know him, right?
	And so they're not going to just abandon their livelihoods to go do something for six months or a year or three months or two weeks.
	So, we have an incredible team that's been on the ground in Wisconsin, give or take about 200 people who are working at or nearly full-time, and then thousands of people who are going in.
	You need about, for this race to close the gap on what's there, that's in addition to what's been done.
	You need another 500 full-time people to be on the ground, we just did that math.
	But then you need about 10 times the amount of volunteers.
	About 5,000 volunteers.
	We had, we just pulled this today, we had about 4,000 people that were helping in some capacity across Wisconsin.
	That wasn't enough.
	You need more.
	And again, there's not a historic nature of activism within Wisconsin in conservative politics.
	You got to build that.
	And so that's got to keep growing and keep moving towards, I mean, we're looking at Dane County here.
	21% is, you know, your floor.
	for Brad Schimmel.
	He's hanging on by a thread, but this Waukesha number...
	Oh, Ozaukee County just flipped.
	That's true, yep.
	Which is good, but this Waukesha number isn't where it needs to be.
	We gotta get...
	that has to be at like 62-63% and holding, which is where he was, and it's really interesting because some of these other votes that came in were not super favorable to Brad Schimmel, so we'll keep looking at this and keep an eye on it.
	And this is Brad, so we'll keep talking while we're here as we're looking at these results that are coming in.
	Oh, and we just got another dump here.
	It looks like things have stayed pretty much even.
	Trending still about 120,000 ballots down.
	So you got to start figuring out where can those come from?
	Waukesha County is now 80% in.
	Which, it was about 75% just a few minutes ago.
	They've also dialed Milwaukee back to 50%, whereas it was over 60% before.
	So, that's not great.
	Not good, yeah.
	That's not helpful.
	Dane is 55, so you're looking at about half the vote in both those places.
	And, you know, I'll be honest, we're running a bit behind where we were in those counties a few months ago.
	Brown County's in, again, not as high as you would hope.
	It's not bad Green Bay has been kind of Split it's a 58 42 number right now only 24% of the vote is in you expect a pretty decent day of election showing there for Brad Schimmel but again, just more votes keep dumping here and You're you're moving backwards and you're moving backwards and that's not good Kenosha not in good shape 95% of the vote.
	All right, you have to win Kenosha and Racine And Kenosha, you're back six points right now.
	You're down 3,000 votes.
	That's a lot.
	That's a lot for a place that you're hoping to win.
	So I've been analyzing this data.
	Let me just kind of repeat this, though, for everyone watching at home, is that these off-year elections are going to continue to be a challenge for our party and our movement, absent a change of strategy and a change of approach.
	From the top down and also the bottom up.
	Look, we can't blame working class people for not showing up.
	We have to do a better job of exciting them, of finding them, and from bringing them out to vote in a full grassroots mobilization and getting the mindset right.
	And let's also just appreciate President Donald Trump's ability to get these voters out, something that people thought was impossible.
	The two people of this century, That have been able to get low-propensity voters out is Barack Obama and Donald Trump.
	And interestingly, they were both able to get out similar types of low-propensity voters.
	The party has been remade.
	The Democrats are now going to permanently enjoy this kind of high-prop coalition that they've built, and we're still dependent on Trump's magic.
	I want to ask Jack this.
	Jack, theoretically, with maybe a vice president, Jay Vance, being the nominee in 2028, can we win back Yeah, I mean, that's really the $12 billion question, isn't it, Charlie?
	Yeah, you're right.
	So J.D. Vance, as it stands, you know, let's say Devil's Advocate, he becomes the nominee in 2028.
	He's obviously going for We're good.
	Like, white collar and blue collar mixed into one.
	Curtis Yarvin said something about how JD Vance has so many Americans within him, and I think that's an incredible, you know, an incredible way to view it.
	You know, he goes to the Marines, and he's a Marine.
	He goes to a bar and he's a bar, but yet he can also sit down with like the New York Times and speak their language, go to Munich and tell off the globalists,
	This is We're
	good to go.
	that either blue collar appeal or also that cross party appeal
	um someone who's able to pick up people from the middle people people and and really by the way tap into the maha movement you know i think the maha movement and and let me just you know you know step back and even bigger for a second i didn't see the maha movement getting engaged in the wisconsin election because i didn't see anyone ask the maha movement to get engaged in the 2025 wisconsin election i didn't see anyone Reach out and explain to Maha why they should be involved in a Supreme Court race in Wisconsin.
	I didn't see anyone asking for their votes.
	I didn't see anyone campaigning for their votes.
	And I'm a big believer in people don't come out and vote for you because you say you should.
	I think people come out and vote for you because you ask specific coalitions to come out for your vote.
	This is something that FDR understood.
	This is something that coalitions building on the Democrat side has understood for almost a hundred years now.
	And I haven't seen any Republican really work this work this out up until Donald Trump put it together in starting in 2016.
	But then on forward in understanding that you have to go to each group specifically and ask them for their vote.
	So, you know, it's the big piece of the table or piece of the pie that was missing here in Wisconsin was Maha.
	Did anyone go and ask Maha to get involved in Wisconsin because he didn't see it?
	And then you look at the but you look at the profile of a Maha supporter.
	They actually do fit.
	Yeah, I mean, look, in order for us to compete against the Democrats, Tyler, I want you to just brag on the great work that Turning Point Action did here.
	Again, we're about results, not just activity.
	So it doesn't, you know, there's no consolation prize here.
	But talk about what the Democrats had on the ground in permanent infrastructure to win this Wisconsin Supreme Court.
	Yeah, I mean, this is, again, we just went through this, but You know, the Democrats have a permanent infrastructure, particularly behind the blue wall, where you have this historic union-based epicenter, and you've got unions, you've got union members, they're vicious, they're, you know, angry, you know, on the left, the union bosses, I mean.
	Most of the unions are actually pretty split.
	They're about half and half in a post-Trump world here, in a Trump era.
	world where there's a lot of blue collar folks that are Republican, but the leadership, that's why I'm referencing the leadership, are all Democrats and they have the structure, the infrastructure that's already built.
	And the infrastructure that's already there pays people You know, basically salaries and family members' salaries to go out and do this work that we have to build from the ground up.
	And, you know, again, bragging on the Turning Point Action staff, we have incredible people who have made up significant ground.
	You know, we saw that in the 2024 election for President Trump, where we chased tens of thousands of ballots that put him over the top.
	But here in this, I mean, you look at the last Supreme Court election with Dan Kelly, And you know, he lost that election by about 100, uh, almost 200,000 votes, 200,000 votes.
	I think it was.
	That's a lot of ground to make up.
	You have to have on the ground.
	And so the number that you need to make up what's projected now to be, you know, a hundred, a little over a hundred thousand vote loss, we'll see how many total votes get counted.
	I mean, it looks like we're trending towards that 2.2 million that I mentioned that would put Brad Schimel in the, in the ballpark of, of having the ability to win.
	But you've got to chase 150,000 votes to win you know to have some safe padding you know you got to have 500 more full-time people on the ground and That's it the way that the left pays them Charlie is they pay them basically full teacher salaries because you can't just hire You know people who will just come and go you can't hire off Craigslist you have to hire people who treat this as a profession and They have to be people who are basically, they do hire a lot of teachers.
	They hire a lot of people out of schools.
	They hire a lot of union family members.
	And they say, this is your job now.
	You are going to build relationships in the neighborhoods that you live in, and you're going to chase these votes every election.
	If it's for dog catcher, and we tell you to, you're going to chase it.
	If it's for Supreme Court, you're going to chase it.
	If it's for president, you're going to chase it.
	And they have that infrastructure built in Wisconsin.
	And so we've got to match that.
	There's 50 organizations the left has.
	We can't survive with one, two, or three of those doing small amounts of work.
	You have to have many big organizations doing that, making up that ground, or you have to have, like I said, 40, 50 of those organizations, like the left has.
	And we're heading towards that.
	And, you know, Charlie just poignantly said it, is that this is a, we have to keep telling people, this is the mindset shift.
	You're not able to do this in places like Wisconsin.
	You're not gonna be able to do it in Pennsylvania.
	That's a bigger state.
	You're not gonna be able to do places where we've never operated before that we have to win.
	And we've got to build these things, you know, in the Sun Belt and other places where we have to defend the Trump legacy, the populist legacy, whatever you want to call it, in order to win elections for the next, you know, 5, 10, 20 years.
	The Republicans need to win when Trump—need to learn how to win when Trump is not on the ballot.
	And otherwise, we're gonna have a more structural issue.
	This isn't by no means a black pill, everybody.
	This is not a—I mean, it's not a wonderful night with Wisconsin.
	We control the White House.
	We prove that we can win in presidential-style elections.
	And by the way, just for those of you keeping score at home, it used to be that we were always so concerned that we could never win the presidential, but we could only win the special.
	So we've actually solved the far more complex high-stakes riddle.
	It's Democrats that are now trying to figure out the riddle of how they win a presidential election, especially via the Electoral College.
	So there's no doom or gloom here, but we have to stay really focused on what are the lessons here.
	Low prop is a lesson and the infrastructure is a lesson.
	The amount of money that needs to be spent on full-time professional And I love what Tyler said there.
	And someone from Chicago just sent me a message.
	Charlie, what you're talking about is a grassroots professional.
	It is a full-time grassroots operative.
	I think that's exactly right.
	I think it's very smart.
	When we just say full-time people, you know, they say, what is it, like a full-time taxi driver?
	No, no.
	It is a grassroots professional.
	It is their full-time job.
	It is what they do.
	From The same way, look, if you have a leak in your sink, you call a plumber.
	If you have a car issue, you go to the mechanic.
	If you want to win elections, you need grassroots professionals, otherwise known as community organizers.
	Blake, comment on, again, this is not catastrophic.
	It's a wake-up call.
	It's one that we saw coming, and that we knew was coming.
	Blake, what are the broad lessons for the Republican movement here?
	Not just going into the midterms.
	But on a more macro, on a more macro basis.
	Sure, sure.
	So, especially as we've been saying, this is, it's a reflection that we have to be ready for races where Donald Trump isn't on the ballot.
	I know we've, you know, he's been talking about finding a way to go for a third term, but I will tell you, even if they find a way, it won't be with Trump as the number one guy on the ballot, because that is definitely constitutionally out of the picture.
	So, You're going to have to have someone, we have to start, we have to develop the strategy for winning a post-Trump GOP on a Trumpian message, we hope, on a Trumpian platform, but there's clearly a singular charisma to Donald Trump that drives turnout, that really inspires people.
	And we haven't seen it pan out that without that, you can muster a nationwide majority.
	We can still win races.
	We can still do very well at the state level.
	But that tipping point of getting the national majority that can save the country, you right now need Trump.
	And there's some systemic issues there that we have made that bargain of the GOP has become more populist.
	It's become more economically Middle and even you know lower class instead of having as many high-income voters and what that means is you've swapped out a lot of the people who care the most about politics and That's not to say that that's a good thing.
	It's often a bad thing that a person cares obsessively about politics We have people who care a lot about Their church, they care a lot about their civic organizations, they care a lot about their families.
	All of us have finite amounts of attention, and if you care a ton about your church and a ton about your family, you have less amount of care to invest into politics.
	And the left has a large share of the people who derive the most meaning in their life from their political engagement.
	You go to church on Sunday, they go to their Trans Lives Matters rally on Sunday, and that is church for them.
	You tithe to your church.
	They tithe to this race.
	They would have money coming in from all across the country for this vote.
	They had money going from all across the country to those Florida races.
	Races they had no hope of winning, and they got millions of dollars for it, because some people just really get into that.
	For now, the Democrats have a systemic advantage with People who care a ton and who are obsessive and this will possibly get more intense because things are happening in politics that will fire them up.
	They're extremely fired up about Musk.
	I can see this.
	I can see this in places that aren't even political that people are all riled up about Elon Musk.
	They're all riled up about Doge.
	They're all riled up about this or that thing that Trump is doing and that will probably continue that There's always a natural balancing force to American politics.
	To give another example, this happened to Obama.
	Obama wins a gigantic landslide in 2008.
	He wins Indiana, as he turns Indiana blue.
	You can look at how Indiana voted in this past election.
	That was a shocking result.
	And he gets 60 seats in the Senate.
	He gets a gigantic majority in the House, and two years later, all of two years later, Wiped out in the House, loses a ton of Senate seats, loses a ton more Senate seats in 2014.
	Obama is this hugely popular person who gets a ton of low-prop voters to come out for him, and yet the rubber-band effect of American politics, the natural backlash his success created, essentially created the modern Republican Party at the state level.
	It massively increased our power at the state level.
	And I think we're seeing some manifestation of that with Trump.
	They came out, we were very happy, they came out very aggressive, like a cannonball.
	One executive order after another.
	A lot of big things.
	Things that are going to take a while to pan out, you know, securing the border.
	We're very happy that the crossings at the border have dropped to almost nothing, but the impact of that, if you're a normal person in a normal town, you're not going to see that overnight.
	You're going to see it on a macro scale of months, years, decades even, whereas people who have that moral trigger of They're securing the border, and I'm super mad about that because I hate borders.
	They're fired up now.
	They are donating all the money now.
	They are obsessively reading all the articles shared on Facebook, on Instagram, on Daily Kos, on wherever they get their articles these days.
	They're fired up now.
	They're going to be turning out to the max, and that is going to lead to defeats, and we have to do our best to enhance our organizing capacity, to Limit those defeats, to turn some of those defeats into victories, and to make the most out of this.
	This is a loss, but I see some people, you know, commenting on our chats that, like, this is the end of the project.
	It is not the end of the project.
	This is not even a top 10 defeat in terms of badness.
	Guys, this is a singular state Supreme Court race of which we are anticipating an uphill battle.
	We won the presidency in the Senate and the House back in November.
	We won the top prize of America It's a little bit of an elbow, a little bit of a wake-up call.
	Just take a deep breath.
	Don't be cocky.
	A little humility.
	Keep your head down and keep working.
	Blake, continue.
	I agree with that analysis.
	Yeah, and I'll say this too, I mean this is even more, it shines the light on what do we have to do, right?
	Baseball season just started, I love baseball because it's a game of adjustments, and you constantly have these series going on, and you get punched in the face, and then the team can come back out just in the example that Charlie gave.
	Correct a lot of things with the new picture and fix some things with better heading and everything else.
	We have this situation now where we're looking at this and we're going, we can see very clearly what the differential is.
	We can see very clearly what you have to do.
	We know how many people don't show up to vote.
	The question is, again, what Charlie was saying, how are you going to figure out how to get those people out to vote when Trump's not on the ballot making it easy?
	Uh, because people like him, they know him, they want to show up for him.
	How do you do that?
	Well, it's, we know some of these things and we'll talk about them, but we know what it takes to get some of these people out.
	Anyways. Uh, and yeah, and just in terms of badness, I want to emphasize, this is not even our worst defeat at the Wisconsin Supreme Court because the one we had two years ago, that is what actually flipped it from a conservative Supreme Court to a liberal one.
	This was a chance to take it back.
	That would be great.
	There's cases unfolding right now that are unlikely to go our way that we were hoping would go our way if we'd won this race.
	This will have a real impact.
	The reason we always compare it to the House, this wasn't a House race, but Democrats have really learned
	That's such a beautiful argument and then they'll just remake their house maps to have more Democrat seats and That's why we don't have a bigger majority now.
	We lost seats in, I believe, Louisiana.
	We lost a seat due to that.
	I think we lost some seats in North Carolina due to that.
	And we'll probably lose a seat or two in Wisconsin because of that.
	It's not the end of the world.
	These things have a way of not mattering quite as much as you'd think because the voters don't always do what you expect them to.
	But it's a loss.
	It is not a utterly catastrophic loss.
	We don't want to Engage in catastrophic thinking here.
	Well, and you make and you make moves forward right which is you learn something from all of these things Today there was a fantastic outcome again, and this this contributes to some of it the statewide referendum For voter ID in Wisconsin passed with it's it's already done.
	They've already called it Significantly, it's passing with huge numbers.
	So it's huge numbers right now, which is Really crazy if you think about it because it's like how does a person Not understand like what they're electing for Supreme Court But supports voter ID that the left wants to completely undo But I mean look this is part of the education process right which is That message has to be clear You have to put more bodies on the ground to help make that clear the way I best describe it is is like Mary Kay sales everybody
	You know, knows the Mary Kay saleswoman in their neighborhood.
	They know who that person is.
	They understand that.
	They buy something from her because they don't want to eliminate the relationship, right?
	She'd go to church with her, everything else.
	And they know if I need something, I'm going to go to her and, you know, she's going to knock on my door and, you know, I'm going to know her face to face.
	That's what you need for elections.
	You have to have that Mary Kay saleswoman type approach that, you know, Bring cookies to your doorstep type of approach in the neighborly way to be able to show people what to do and what's going on and that they can rely on you for that.
	We've started the process of building that.
	We did that really effectively in Arizona.
	We had the elements of that on the ground in Wisconsin.
	But you've got to invest into that deeply.
	For that to take hold and take root and to impact way down the line races like the Supreme Court race.
	And you know, there are positives right now.
	I mean, we're trending towards entire counties flipping red from the last Supreme Court race.
	We're likely going to see a decent amount of those.
	But again, the Democrats are smart.
	The left is smart.
	They spend all their time, energy, and resources in Dane County, for example.
	Which, you can't lose Dane County by more than 21-22%, which means you've got to get those Republicans out who have given up in those places.
	You've got to win by more in Waukesha.
	You can't let that slide even more.
	Ozaki, you know, you've got to win.
	I think we lost to Ozaki last Supreme Court race.
	So, you know, or if we didn't, it was close.
	So, you know, you're You're in this space now.
	No, we didn't lose the last time, but it looks like we're going to far exceed.
	But like Kenosha, for example, we're bringing up, you know, that is not going in enough of a good direction.
	Like you've got to turn out voters that turned out for Donald Trump down in Kenosha.
	You know, again, that's a real working class stretch there between Chicago and Milwaukee.
	They're right along there.
	And we're seeing And Kenosha, we're winning space.
	I mean, we're coming back from the Obama era, but we've got to keep the foot on the gas.
	Blake, do you want to give an update of some sort?
	Is that what you'd like to do?
	Yeah, well, just what people have been asking for an update.
	The update is, it's not really getting any closer.
	We're down by about just under 12 points.
	So it has gotten better, but now we're at 62% of the vote is in.
	Yeah, we might get into that 9-10 point range.
	So that's not great.
	And the experts are actually saying now they think that the lead is going to expand for Crawford.
	Yeah, I mean, we only have 61% still in Milwaukee.
	So Milwaukee is apparently now behind what the overall result is.
	It looks like all of Kenosha and Racine are in.
	We narrowly lost those two.
	Those are places we won.
	We have most of Walker shut in.
	And going back, you have to win.
	I mean, really, in a race like this, you've got to bridge the gap between the Trump voter and this race.
	And the gap didn't close very much in Kenosha.
	Racine, I think, I'm going to pull it up, I think we won that last time.
	And that's a problem.
	That's a real problem.
	Yeah, it was close.
	It was very narrow, but very similar type results But it was it's positive and Brad might end up winning that you know when it's all said and done because it's within Just a few hundred votes, but you got to win these you got to win these by a lot a lot more than where you're at right now Brown County is kind of an interesting story because it looks like Schimel might completely flip the odds because last election Dan Kelly lost that by a few thousand votes.
	It looks like Brad Schimel, like Brown County's going.
	Let's draw on that because Andrew's asking, how does this compare to 2023?
	That might be the better comparison than just last November.
	Yeah, that's what we're talking about.
	What are some changes in the map?
	2023, first of all, we lost by 11 points.
	So we may slightly beat that.
	We're a bit behind it now, but we might improve it.
	We'll see how that ends up resolving, but it'll be pretty close.
	If you look at the map, a big thing that stands out, there's way less turnout in'23.
	That was already, we were getting pretty engaged, talking about this is important, but they had 1.8 million votes.
	We're at 1.5 million and we're not even two thirds done.
	So we're going to beat the vote total from that one by 500, 600,000 votes it looks like.
	And so that's way massive increase in turnout on both sides.
	We're going to lose it narrowly here We're going to have yeah, we're good.
	They lost Brown County in that one.
	It overall is a pretty similar map We lost Dane County 80 to 18 in that race.
	We're doing Better than that now, but it's been trending against, you mentioned, 20% as that sort of bare minimum threshold.
	We're now at 80-20.
	That's five points behind where we were in last November, for example.
	And Dan Kelly only won 18% of that vote.
	It was a bloodbath.
	So, you could end up there, and that will be part of the story, right?
	Which is, you can't do that.
	You can't.
	You gotta be like Trump.
	You gotta be at 22-23%, right?
	Which is, again, Part of that bridge gapping is you got to lose Dane County by less as a percentage.
	The problem is, like, we're looking at this only 77% of the votes in Dane County right now.
	There's a lot of votes that are going to end up being cast a lot more than last time in Dane County.
	They made up, they can make up a ton of ground in Dane County with that.
	And that's what they did.
	That's what they did.
	They made up some of these other places that went are probably going to go light pink.
	I mean, Dan Kelly lost the entire southwestern part of Of Wisconsin last time.
	It doesn't look like Schimel's gonna lose the entire southwestern part of the state.
	I'll be honest, we might because those are, the ones that are red are early turnout and a lot of the counties have trended blue a little bit over the course of tonight.
	Yeah, I mean, we'll see.
	I don't know.
	I mean, we'll see what the outcome is.
	There's still a lot of votes to count in some of those places.
	They're about 50% I think it looks like.
	But, you know, I can imagine.
	I'm just looking at like Vernon County and Crawford County.
	I don't think you're going to lose them, you know, lose those places.
	But I mean, you might.
	Who knows?
	We'll see.
	You know, St. Croix County is in pretty much all that votes there.
	You've got a very similar, I think, vote turnout there.
	Yeah, it's a little bit better in St. Croix County, but that's a place that you need to do better.
	That Trump was was doing pretty good in Yeah, I mean story the name of the story is like we've got to get more of our low prop voters out in each of these places particularly Again, Waukesha County is a 90% now and we're still trending 58 42. It's just not good enough Like it's just not good enough.
	You got to be at 61 62 percent, which is what we were going for in Waukesha County That's almost exactly where Dan Kelly ended up And at 58-41 last time, that's not good enough.
	And that's a problem.
	It's a real problem.
	In the end, it is all turnout.
	We're already well above the number of votes that he got in Waukesha two years ago.
	Oh yeah, by a lot.
	All the turnout is up across the board, but their turnout is up a lot too.
	And that's why we're going to lose this one.
	But I say turnout is up, but Again, in perspective, turnout is way down from what it was in either 2020 or in 2024.
	So in all of these non-presidential contests, it's a turnout contest in terms of who loses less of the people that they got to vote in the last big election.
	And it looks like they're going to lose a lesser total because they are fired up, because they are less Attached to a particular candidate as opposed to just sort of being amped up in general and They they want the wind I think you could reduce it to they want it more right now.
	Well, and here's the problem Yes, and no, I I will say though.
	It's just yes, I think I think that is right I just it's just temperamentally the Democrats have remade themselves where They had they have a easier baseline of people that think politics and meaning are directly correlated together Our best voters, the ones that put Donald Trump back in the White House, they kind of hate government and they hate politics and they take massive convincing and nudging to vote at all and to get into the system.
	Which is fine, we just got to work through that.
	And I see it all the time on campuses.
	Our side asks more questions, our side does more research, Our side is more thorough and just trying to figure out like, well, is this person really trustworthy?
	And Trump was able to overcome all of that with just this power of personality.
	And remember, David Shore said that even with more turnout, Trump would have won 54% of that vote.
	And so even more turnout would have elected Trump by more, which it's just remarkable.
	So we got we have to figure out the turnout issue and the Democrats are building this coalition which is a very difficult Presidential coalition to keep alive However in off-year elections We are we're gonna be in some we're gonna be in some choppy waters Jack your thoughts Yeah,
	Charlie, I mean, I think that you know, it really comes down to most Republicans don't don't really talk about the working class They don't talk to the working class.
	They don't really have much understanding for the working class when I when I say this I'm talking about like the the professional Republican consultant class types the people who you know are supposed to be doing this 24-7, you know, they they seem to think that you can get by with just saying like This person is like Trump so vote Without bringing up any type of direct connection with that person,
	without creating any actual excitement behind that person, or again, going to those individual members of coalitions to get them to work.
	And I'm just going to fundamentally keep going back to this point.
	The professional Republican class does not actually understand the Trump coalition and how the Trump coalition works.
	They don't understand the different components of it.
	They don't understand the working class part of it.
	I mean, do you think when I go around Washington, D.C., and I've been all over D.C., I've been to Congress, I've been going around the different department buildings at the State Department today for the First Lady's event there, but you see these professional Republican types.
	I'm not talking about the Trump admin, but I'm talking about the others.
	They couldn't explain tariffs to you.
	They couldn't explain what tariffs mean for the middle class.
	They couldn't explain what tariffs mean for the working class.
	They don't actually understand how any of this stuff works or puts together.
	So when it comes to messaging, they just fall back on these things that they think are safe, like, oh, Trump good, so vote for Trump-like guy.
	The story is not there whatsoever.
	There's no story that's being told.
	There's no message that's being sent.
	And this is what, and we wrote about this in the book last year, this is what Democrats are so good at.
	What do Democrats offer?
	Now, I'm not saying what do they believe, I'm not saying what are their inherent drivers, I'm talking about what do they actually offer.
	They offer a positive vision of the future.
	A positive vision of the future.
	How many Republicans do that?
	Republicans tend to define themselves by what they're against.
	We're anti-abortion, we're anti-liberal, we're anti-trans, we're anti-whatever, etc, etc, etc.
	But as we, and rightfully so, oppose all those things, what we're also not doing for a long time, and when you only have perhaps What, 15 seconds is like the average length of a TikTok video?
	Charlie, you know better than anyone.
	But it's like you have just a tiny little amount of time to get that across.
	You've got to be able to convey a positive vision of the future to a potential voter or else they're just going to tune out and say, well, this guy's just angry about stuff.
	This person over here, and I'm talking about your like normie average voter, this person over here, like again, if your name isn't Donald Trump and you haven't been through, you know, the 12 labors of Hercules and the, the hero's journey that Trump was on in front of the entire planet,
	you know, Let's begin to kind of wrap it here.
	So what is the final count here?
	Looks to be around 11 point margin.
	It's probably going to land around that, right, Tyler?
	Yeah, it's gonna be about the 10-11 points.
	It looks like You know Schimel could gain a little bit of ground with what is remaining But you know, I'm not so sure Dane County again still story is that he's at 80-20, which is not good enough Waukesha County is at 42-58 or 58-42 I should say Schimel not good enough Ozaki's pulled out ahead pretty similarly to what we've seen the results again not good enough.
	We're hoping for You know, a five point margin or above there.
	So you look like you're going to end up, you know, a 10 point deficit, which is really unfortunate because, again, you're looking at some of these places still and going, wow, we're really close, but flipping some counties.
	But like Blake said, the outcome was if you started this race and you said, I mean, many of the pundits that were there on the ground said, all we've got to do is we've got to turn out an extra Two, three, four hundred thousand votes, which we're probably going to do.
	The goal of how many votes you want to turn out happened here.
	The problem is the left also turned out more people.
	And unfortunately they did it and they fund those things and did it so I think when we look at this It looks like the saying about two-thirds of the votes have been counted or at 1.6 million We're probably gonna hit about 2.2 million, which is exactly what for 2.4 2.2 point.
	Yeah, it's gonna be above 2.2 million Wow, that's that's crazy.
	The expectations were at that high of level.
	It was gonna benefit Brad Schimel more But we're gonna have to look and dive more deeply into some of these counties and say, okay.
	Well, what happened?
	Yeah, how did we not win with a higher turnout on election day?
	Well, I mean, it could be high turnout, but you lose the swing voters.
	That's always a possibility, too.
	So there's the turnout race of your base, but there's also there are voters who swing this way, swing that way, and they could have swung back away for any number of reasons.
	Yeah, a couple things.
	First of all, I would hesitate to say That this is a referendum on Elon or Trump or Doge.
	This has been a thing for years now.
	This is almost an identical Supreme Court spring election result from spring of 2023, before Elon was even on the scene and before Trump was the nominee, let alone the president of the United States.
	So you got to prepare for the media narrative.
	Let's put 198 up.
	This is Tim Walz and they're playing out their economic populist, uh, let's just say messaging.
	Democrats are going to try to go all-in on economic populism.
	We'll see if it works for them.
	It's going to be amazing.
	They're going to be economic populists trying to win high-propensity suburban voters.
	Honestly, they probably could get it done.
	High-propensity suburban voters at our College Educator will vote for anything.
	They'll vote for their kids to become trans.
	They'll vote for Black Lives Matter.
	They'll vote for their police station to get burned down.
	So maybe they'll do that.
	I don't know.
	I mean, just the idea that high-propensity voters are going to come back that read the New York Times and listen to NPR are going to come back to the middle, even though, hey, my name is Alexandria Kaiser-Cortez.
	I'm going to take your home and your 401k, but I won't call you a racist.
	Might work, honestly.
	I know a lot of people in the suburbs of Atlanta that would love that message.
	Like, well, so if I don't have a home and I don't have money, but I'm not a racist, deal.
	I'll vote for you.
	That's basically what the Democrats are selling.
	I'm going to take all your stuff, but I won't call you a racist.
	So, we have to prepare for that.
	And look, again, guys, we won the biggest of all the prizes.
	We won the greatest accomplishment in probably American political history.
	Elections like this can serve as momentary little cautionary warning signs.
	Ooh, we gotta fix that.
	We gotta rebuild that.
	We gotta fix that.
	We gotta fix that.
	And if we ignore them, then they bubble up and they become massive, massive issues.
	I want to also say this.
	Thank you guys who have emailed us freedom at charliekirk.com and that have been watching us.
	We're going to be giving away 10 signed MAGA hats.
	It's actually not this one.
	This is just one I have in this specific studio.
	10 signed MAGA hats.
	If you guys show that you are subscribed to the Charlie Kirk Show podcast.
	So in order to be subscribed to the Charlie Kirk Show podcast, you take out your phone and go to the podcast app.
	Type in Charlie Kirk Show and screenshot it and email us proof of subscription freedom at charliekirk.com and Ms. Daisy will get 10 of the first people that do that signed hats out to you.
	So we really appreciate that.
	President Trump just put up a truth social.
	Voter ID just approved in Wisconsin.
	Democrats fought hard against this, presumably so they can cheat.
	This is a big win for Republicans, maybe the biggest one of the night.
	You should allow us to win Wisconsin, like I just did in the presidential election, for many years to come.
	That is loaded as 200, and that is up on screen.
	So, again, subscribe to the Charlie Kirk Show podcast, email us freedom at charliekirk.com, proof of subscription.
	Let's go around the horn, guys.
	Other thoughts?
	Closing action items.
	The grassroots right now are rather upset.
	I wouldn't say that they're pissed.
	I'd say they're a little bit ticked off with how things proceeded tonight.
	I think that we need to look at the seeded equivalent benefit.
	This is not us losing the House of Representatives.
	It could be, but it's not.
	It's definitely not us losing the United States Senate.
	It's not us losing the presidency.
	We didn't lose a Senate race tonight.
	What we did is we got a window into the current state of our politics and things that we need to fix.
	And sometimes that our movement needs to stop being so high on our own supply and getting back down to the fundamental basics that we can build a majoritarian mandate for governance for generations to come.
	Jack, we'll go around the horn and start with you.
	Yeah, so once again, just like in geopolitics, here in, you know, regular domestic politics, we learned that history is not ended.
	The end of history has ended.
	Politics Have not ended.
	Donald Trump and the MAGA coalition are not the final end of all politics.
	Turns out that public opinion and it turns out that doing the work actually still are required to win elections, especially as I just keep saying this, if your name is not Donald Trump.
	You've got to work within the confines of the coalition.
	You've got to work with MAHA, as well as the other members of the MAGA coalition.
	All of the broad sections.
	There are working class, if that had been engaged, is a huge, huge component.
	The union vote, obviously very big in Wisconsin, huge up there.
	You know, that's a way to get engaged people and bring them out.
	All of these things need to be done.
	But again, this sort of belief that, oh, you can just sort of wave your hand and the GOP consultants will say, oh, this person is like Trump and you can go vote for them, doesn't work.
	It's not going to work.
	You still have to actually do the work day in, day out.
	You need to put funding behind people who are doing this 24/7.
	The Turning Points, the Turning Point Actions, the Scott Presslers, the Cliff Maloney's of the world, all of this stuff needs to be on the ground if you want elections to win.
	You do still have to eat your vitamins.
	Blake. Valsiko has been making many paid donations.
	I can't read all of them because some of them are swear words, but he says, you know, that the problem is we're not arresting enough people.
	I would say if you're dissatisfied with the number of arrests President Trump has been making in his second term, you might be unpleasable because he's certainly on border-related stuff that's ramped up.
	I don't think that issue is being ignored.
	I understand people are very frustrated with this outcome, as we said.
	Politics is a frustrating endeavor.
	It is inherently competitive.
	You lose about half of the races, and even after you win, you certainly don't really get much more than half of what you want.
	There is far more failure than success in politics, and part of politics is you just have to deal with it.
	You have to accept that.
	You have to move on.
	You have to keep fighting.
	Charlie's always good on this, where he says, we have to keep fighting not because we're always going to win, not because it's necessarily that fun.
	We have to keep fighting because it's the right thing to do.
	And that is why we do it.
	We do it because it is the right thing for the country.
	It is the right thing for our families.
	It is the right thing according to our belief in God.
	And that is why we're going to keep going at it, and sometimes there's going to be backlash, sometimes there's going to be shortfalls, sometimes you're going to get an outcome like tonight, which is not great, which I will note is still fine.
	We got the voter ID passed.
	We got two wins in the Florida House races.
	We got wins tonight.
	We just decided we didn't succeed on the most difficult thing of the night, and it didn't work out.
	That's just how it is in politics.
	We will move on, we shall try to improve our strategy, and hopefully future streams will be better ones.
	We were around in 2022.
	2022 was a bad night, bad series of nights, and two years later we had 2024.
	It was a very bad night.
	That was a bad week.
	That was a bad year after that.
	That was not good.
	Tyler, close us out.
	Yeah, I was just gonna say, we have no choice but to fight harder for a permanent infrastructure.
	If there's anything that we look at this, that the analogy that I go with, Charlie, is you can't build a tent, you know, out of, like, out of paper, you know, and expect it to survive a hailstorm.
	You've got the right has built And I'm just going to say it again, the right has built almost nothing permanent in most states.
	And we're seeing some massive years of hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars that have gone to Florida and Ohio that are just starting to turn because of the massive amount of investment that was put in all throughout the Obama years and prior to the Bush years and the decades that went into that.
	But you've got to invest significantly into these states, put the ground forces, the infrastructure, and figure out how to build the community organizer model that Charlie, you know, and I talk about all the time, and our team talks about all the time, to have their relationships in order to win in each of these neighborhoods.
	And that's where you turn a corner.
	You know, we did not chase enough votes to win this one, but the votes were there to be chased.
	We did not win this election We did not lose this election because we didn't turn out more voters than last time.
	We turned out more voters than last time.
	We hustled and we expended a ton of resources on volunteerism and timely dedication to Wisconsin.
	But it's got to be longer.
	It's got to be deeper.
	It's got to be more aggressive.
	And that's what the left has done in so many cases.
	Yeah, I'm very proud of the expansion and the growth that's happened in Wisconsin, but it's got to be more.
	We've got to do more, and we've got to focus on the other states, the key target states, and we've got to be thinking about 2032 and 2028 right now.
	I know it sounds crazy, but 2028 is right around the corner, and that has to frame all of our minds for 2026.
	That is well said.
	Alright, everybody, thank you guys for spending time with us tonight.
	Thank you, Rob and Parker, for giving us the deck.
	In closing, we won the two Florida races, which is amazing.
	Look, God is good.
	God has a plan for all of this.
	And maybe God is trying to humble us, to kick us in the rear a little bit, to build that permanent infrastructure.
	We won the voter ID.
	This was not a catastrophic night.
	We won the two house races.
	Now, if we lost those in Florida, we'd be having a much different conversation tonight.
	We need to think about how to take more ground and it is a perplexing problem.
	It is a riddle and I would love to have you guys email us freedom at charliekirk.com how to get how to defeat a side that believes politics is their religion in an off year cycle.
	That is a that is a difficult riddle to solve.
	So I want to hear from you guys freedom at charliekirk.com And again, thank you guys for watching and listening.
	We'll be breaking this down on all of our respective shows here on Real America's Voice, on podcasting, and wherever you guys hear us on radio.
	Every day you can hear me from 12 to 2 on Real America's Voice, Jack from 12 to 2 to 3. Jack is also on the Salem News Channel, on the Salem Radio Network as well.
	So great to have the entire roster here.
	It's a wake-up call, but we still control the White House.
	We control the Senate.
	We control the House of Representatives.
	So glory be to God.
	And let's just get back to work.
	Think critically about these races.
	And I'll be honest, I can't believe we're doing this again.
	I told the team, I said, didn't we just have an election like 140 days ago?
	It feels like Christmas was yesterday.
	I was like, this is too soon.
	I need at least two more days.
	A little breathing room, but understand, in November, we got the New Jersey governor's race.
	We have the Virginia governor's race.
	We got a lot of elections coming up in November.
	And then a year from November, if you guys really want to get spooked, a year from November is the midterms and a year from late November, we will have active presidential candidates for the 2028 election.
	That's crazy.
	That'll be happening a year from November, late November, year from late early December.
	We will have actively filed presidential candidates.
	Let's just enjoy not always having politics and elections all the time.
	Huge amount.
	I think it's unhealthy how politically obsessed we are.
	We should be much more focused on culture, strong families, communities.
	I say that as a political guy.
	It's just too much at times, but the left wants us to be politically focused and less focused on raising kids and honoring God and having faith.
	So keep those the main thing, the main thing.
	Thank you guys.
	And again, subscribe to our podcast and email us freedom at charliekirk.com.

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