The Federal Hearing on Trump's Assassination Attempt & The Truth About Josh Shapiro
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This is what happens when the fourth turning meets fifth generation warfare.
A commentator, international social media sensation, and former Navy intelligence veteran.
This is Human Events with your host Jack Posobiec.
Christ is king!
I don't think it's accidental that just four days after Harris and Biden repudiated our Israeli allies, Iran's top terrorist group Hezbollah, Fired an Iranian missile to kill 12 innocent children at a soccer field.
The terrorists did it because they assumed they could get away with it because the United States is weak and ineffective and no longer respected.
This act of terror is just another manifestation of Israelis decading long patterns of terrorism and sabotage targeting Palestinians and other supporters and sympathizers of the Palestinian cause across the region and beyond.
Our intelligence community has made clear that we believe that the Iranians are attempting to kill or injure former high government officials.
This morning, anger from some families of 9-11 victims after word that the alleged mastermind of the 9-11 attacks and two other defendants have accepted a plea deal to avoid the death penalty.
I bring energy way down, I bring interest rates way down, I bring inflation way down, so people can buy bacon again, so people can buy a ham sandwich again, so that people can go to a restaurant and afford it.
Because right now, people can't buy food.
It's kind of classic projection, right?
The very things he's talking about—virtue, strength, security, family—those are all things that Trump's Republican Party has completely abandoned making any claim to.
They long ago walked away from any serious claim on being the party of family.
I want a future where I can look the 47th president of the United States in the eye and say, hello, madam president!
The contrast could not be more stark.
On the one hand, you have a radical left puppet candidate who is fake, fake, fake.
And on the other hand, you have a president who will fight, fight, fight for America.
All right, ladies and gentlemen, welcome aboard today's edition of Human Events Daily here live, Washington, D.C.
Today is August 1st, 2024.
Anno Domini, very honored to have on here Senator Roger Marshall, who recently had the opportunity to take part in a pretty fiery hearing at the United States Senate.
Senator, how are you today?
Jack, I'm doing great.
Great to be with you and it was a fiery hearing and glad to have this conversation with you about it.
Well, and Senator, I have to ask, you know, you really came over the top with some of these questions and the fact that the answers seem to be, and I'll just say as somebody who was watching and like many Americans, it didn't seem like the answers were very forthcoming.
How did it seem for yourself and for your staff?
Yeah, either the secret security is incompetent or they're purposely trying to deceive us.
It has to be one or the other.
And I really think the backdrop of this hearing, to me, is the folks back home don't trust the FBI, and they have no confidence in the Secret Service.
And they sit there and say, here are two great, revered agencies of the federal government in charge of law enforcement, and if they can't do their job, is my family safe?
And then they sit there and start thinking about the open border, and they think about Kamala Harris policies of defund the police, of cashless bail, and on and on here.
And people are really concerned about their safety and security, and that hearing did nothing to relieve their fears.
At least I didn't think they did.
Well, and that's something, too, because this isn't 48 hours later, this isn't 24 hours later, this is 17 days later, and Senator, yourself and your colleagues, I don't think you were asking very complicated questions.
Yeah, we weren't.
And I think some of the more simple questions are, why didn't you have somebody on top of the building where the assassination attempt occurred from?
Why wasn't there somebody there?
Why wasn't that in the inner perimeter?
So they defined the perimeter as the place where they need to beef up security, but there were 10 buildings within 500 yards of President Trump with a direct line of sight.
Another question, did you or did you not meet with the local police that morning?
And I'm still confused if they had that meeting or not.
Another simple question is, who made the decision to not give President Trump more security?
Or what position was, if you won't name a name, at what level, who makes those type of decisions?
What is the standard operating procedure?
And all we got was obfuscation, not really telling us what is the standard operating procedure.
And again and again and again, we keep getting these roundabout questions and roundabout responses of, oh, it's a process.
Oh, it's a conversation.
And we never seem to get to an actual bottom line detail.
Senator, we've got a quick break, longer segment coming up here.
One second.
We'll be right back, folks.
Senator Roger Marshall from the great state of Kansas.
Be right back.
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Today, you know, you talk about influences.
These are influences.
and their friends of mine, Jack.
So like, where's Jack?
Jack, he's done a great job. - All right, we're back here at Human Events Daily.
We're speaking with Senator Marshall now.
Senator, you had the opportunity to question the current head of the Secret Service, as well as the Deputy Director of the FBI.
Senator, tell me, in your part of the investigation, what specifically are you focusing on?
Because we know there is a vast confluence of things that went wrong here.
Yeah.
Well, Jack, I think I want to focus on solutions.
That it'll take months, if not years, for Congress to figure out what went wrong.
But we realize that there are individual and systemic failures within the Secret Service.
And that's why I'm pushing for a crisis intervention team to go in there right now.
Look, if you have a superintendent of schools who's not doing the job, you have a football coach at your college, a university president, you have to clean house typically.
So we fired the head coach here, but we got the assistant coach now running the same offense that's still not working.
And this particular person, there's no way the acting director can be objective.
It's just, it's impossible.
Instead, he says, look, I confess that we did some bad things there.
We didn't follow protocol.
But then he doesn't want to really solve them.
He doesn't want to fire anybody.
So my focus is getting a crisis intervention team to come in there and turn that place upside down.
And then number two is I think we need to take the investigation outside of the halls of Congress.
That we need a non-political commission People that are experts.
People that can dedicate 10 or 12 hours a day for the next three weeks to jump in the middle of this so we don't have a repeat performance of this here in two or three months.
So my push is to move the ball along.
I've seen enough to know that there are systemic failures.
The culture within the Secret Service is a muck.
Think about this.
There's been a turnover of 48% of the employees at the Secret Service in the past year. 48%.
Barely 50% of the people that work for the Secret Service have confidence and trust in the leadership in the Secret Service.
So really, my thrust is to say, look, timeout.
We need to start over right now.
And then finally, number three is, what are we doing to make sure that President Trump has the security that he needs right now?
And of course, Senator, this is one of the biggest issues.
And there's no question that with President Trump, he is probably the most high profile individual to run for president.
But more at the point, no one running for political office should have to worry about their physical security in such a way.
This is something where I think a lot of people had nothing but the utmost respect for the Secret Service right up until this.
And I know that a lot of people have said since then that this has been something that's really damaged the reputation of the agency and is bringing these questions Senator, I just have to ask, though, you've been someone who's operated in the real world prior to getting into politics.
You know, is this something where you at a private organization anywhere where you could see these levels of failures and not even be able to get an answer as to who the individual was that's responsible?
Yeah, I think that's exactly where my experience has come from.
Being in the military, running a hospital, my dad a chief of police, is that there would not be time for this nonsense.
That people, if we had a real commander in chief, he would have fired the administrator day one.
And within day two or three have appointed this crisis intervention team.
That's what real leadership does in the real world.
But instead what we see is the acting administrator trying to protect everybody.
Trying to blame the local police of all things for their failure.
So what we saw is the current acting administrator saying the local police didn't do their job.
But the local police are saying, look, the Secret Service never communicated to us.
They never even put us all on the same radio channel, for crying out loud.
So yeah, you're right.
In the real world, this would have been all over.
We would have been starting over weeks ago.
And that's something that I think the average American back there is trying to ascertain as to look, they want to know what went wrong, what created these horrific images that we saw on our TV screens that of course they're trying to take off our TV screens and our internet searches right now.
But to get an understanding of what went wrong, who made these decisions.
And I'll say as well, as also prior on the Navy side, Navy intelligence officer that, look, you know, if there's a site survey that needs to get done, there's a concept of operations, a con up plan that's getting put together.
We are going to know specifically whose job was it to set the perimeter?
Whose job was it to lay down the communications?
We would know exactly who that is.
And I understand that you're, you know, what you're doing is not attempting to put all So we would call this a post-mortem exam in medicine or even in the military.
When there's a major event, every one of these events, after they occur, they should sit there and break it down.
What went right?
What went wrong?
like to me that you were going for, Senator. - You got it.
So we would call this a post-mortem exam in medicine or even in the military.
When there's a major event, every one of these events, after they occur, they should sit there and break it down.
What went right, what went wrong, what can we approve upon?
And I can guarantee you that we've probably been more lucky in the past year than we have been good.
And here at this one event, we saw this perfect storm where all these mistakes resulted into a 20-year-old kid with really minimal professional experience able to pull this off.
Running a drone right over where the president was going to be maybe just a couple hours before the president was on stage.
Just mistake after mistake, never setting, the perimeter was never really clear.
Why did they make such a close perimeter with those 10 buildings with a free line of shot?
Why wasn't there better communication with the radios?
I mean, how many minutes passed from the time the local police recognized a shooter on the roof and we couldn't get that word to the Secret Service?
So it's almost, I hate to say, a comedy of errors.
But there are so many things that went wrong.
I would describe this as a systemic failure.
Senator, is there anything that really jumps out at you in terms of this, some of the specifics, any threads that you're pulling?
I know a lot of people are asking, how was it that he was able to get the rifle so close?
A lot of questions at the hearing about the drone coverage, the fact that the shooter had a drone, and it turns out the Secret Service didn't.
Is there any one piece or one thread that you or your staff are really focusing to zero in on?
Yeah, I think it's the motive.
Again, the physician in me wants to know the psychological makeup of this kid.
And I think if we had some really good FBI psychologists involved in this case, that they would be telling us that I bet this kid has a major depressive disorder.
I bet he's schizophrenic.
I bet he had hallucinations.
I bet he couldn't tell the real world from the fake world.
I think that he was obsessed, probably, with Lee Harvey Oswald and the JFK assassination.
I think that this was a young man who, when he was 15, he was not let on the rifle team.
And probably was bullied, and for whatever reason, he tells the world, hey, I'm gonna show everybody.
I'm gonna go buy a rifle, I'm gonna learn how to shoot this rifle, and I want my day of fame.
And I think that it's almost oversimplified what I'm describing, but that's what I'm trying to understand is, is there any bigger motive than just that?
Now, we can't leave any stone unturned.
If there's anything else, anybody else involved with this, then the FBI better be letting us know that.
Well, you know, Senator, a lot of the psychological profile that you're focusing on, and my own experience as an intelligence officer, it sounds like you're talking about someone who may also be quite impressionable.
And so if the individual were talking to somebody, whether it be online, whether it be overseas, whatever it was, doesn't that seem like the type of thing that we should get answers on?
Yeah, it does.
And again, I think it would relieve some of the conspiracy theories out there.
The FBI should be able to tell us at this point in time, are there any other threads out there that we think that anybody's involved?
And if not, say so.
Look, here we are 17 days into the investigation.
And we see nothing that makes us think that there's an accomplice, that indeed this young man got lucky, so to speak.
It was just that simple.
I would like to see that psychological evaluation on him and then share it with people again just to shut down some of the conspiracy theories.
And again, I'm not willing to say there's no chance anything else could happen, but to me it seems pretty obvious that that was his motive.
And of course, you know, these are these are all things that would be a lot easier for us to be able to to discuss.
And then, of course, for yourself as a senator, perhaps even be able to write legislation on or take oversight on if we actually had the basic answers as to what went wrong and for the individual.
And of course, it seems like every day we're getting more information that he was ordering explosive precursors online using a false alias, but having them sent to his address.
That he was able to go encase the facility days in advance, flies the drone on the day of, is able to ride up essentially with a bicycle and is not stopped, is not harassed, is not even questioned by local law enforcement or has anyone intervened until right about the time where he took the shots.
Yeah, all that's true.
Yeah, it sounds like it was a collapsible stock on his rifle.
That's probably what he was carrying in the backpack.
Where did he stash it?
Even just simple as simple today is finally somebody said, look, probably he jumped up on an air conditioning unit about four buildings away and then shimmied across the jumping from roof to roof to four buildings.
That took about seven minutes.
How did he go those seven minutes without Secret Service not identifying a person with a backpack going across there that meets the same description as the photo that they were shown about an hour ago?
Something as simple as a drone in the air?
Operational control is what we would talk about as well in the military.
So again, this is a comedy of errors on the part of the Secret Service.
This is why America has no confidence in him right now.
Senator, can I ask you, and I understand that you'll leave in a minute, but what was your sense of the tone of the acting director?
Because I think that was quite surprising for a lot of people watching.
Yeah.
You know, I think he started off with a good tone, trying to keep his composure, but eventually he got defensive.
And I think when he felt the pressure of everybody coming in on him, and really, the answer was, well, I'll get back with you on that, I'll give you more details later, And then a lot of, I don't know.
I don't know why we set the perimeter where we did.
And when I would ask him, do you have a protocol that describes how you would set the perimeters?
No, we don't.
So I think eventually he became very defensive.
And that's why I say he can't be objective in this job.
I don't doubt he's a good person, but I'm just saying that nobody within the Secret Service right now can be objective.
And that's why we need to bring in some type of a crisis management team to take that particular agency over.
And to keep President Trump and others safe here in the future.
Senator Roger Marshall, thank you for your time, sir.
and them boys had a saying you can't be listening to all that slappy whack trim out his outlet's a bam ship nippy bam bam like human events with jack posobic all right jack so big here
butler pennsylvania standing on the site of the butler farm show where on july 13th about two and a half weeks ago donald trump 2024 was shot by allegedly one individual sitting in this building right behind me the agr building
from a distance of about 158 yards and I can tell you as I'm standing here right now that I mean this distance does not look far at all you can see of course here's the water tower just behind me if someone had been on that water tower they easily would have been able to see someone on both sides of yes there is a sloped roof on here it's a very minimal slope it's almost completely flat
Someone had been on that water tower right there Then you would easily have been able to see someone on the top of this building as we turn over here You can see so there's some open area.
There's the fence line again.
This is completely unprotected undefended on that day and in the background Right about here is where President Trump was speaking.
They're getting ready for the next farm show, which is going to be set up soon by this weekend.
So they're getting ready.
Counter-sniper teams for the Secret Service were on this red building and this red building, which are just behind me, behind the tent right there.
And so this is where the shot was taken to take out Crooks, who again was on this building right behind me.
So, Just judging from the basic distance, this is not a far shot.
This is not a hard shot.
You can see, like if you go up a little bit here, watch.
Give you a rough example, but so here I am right next to the building.
Here I am right next to the building itself.
And then you can see behind me.
So there's some other people who came by.
Nice family up from Kentucky.
You can see about their distance.
So this is about the distance.
This is what it would have looked like through the red site.
Thomas Matthew Crooks that day, coming from this building, roughly that size.
Whether he used red dot, eotech, or iron sights, not a hard shot.
Just not a hard shot.
And the question is, why was this building, why was this building left undefended?
Why was this building left unguarded?
Why was nobody on this building?
To try to ascertain what would have gone wrong.
And we're also told that there was a sniper team on that building on the second floor.
So if there was, if there was a sniper team in the building behind it, why would they not have seen the person on this building?
Just look out the window and there he is.
A lot of questions, no answers.
Again, I'll just say from a personal perspective that standing here, The distance... Everything seems so much smaller than it looks like on TV.
You realize it's not even a one minute walk from one building to the other.
It's not even...
Hard to view anyone that far.
It shouldn't have been hard to see someone climbing up on this building.
So why are we not getting any answers about this from the Secret Service?
Who seem to be putting everything on local law enforcement.
Local law enforcement saying that they didn't hear from Secret Service on the day of.
They didn't have good planning.
They didn't have good communication.
And again, Cory Compatore was killed right about here in the stands.
protecting his wife and daughter, President Trump was shot right about here and almost killed half an inch away from civil war.
It was a nice day just like this.
All right, Jack Posobiec, so you guys just saw that footage, which I just took in Butler, Pennsylvania, having just seen the site myself.
We've been talking about this.
I went and did the show with Tucker talking about this just days after the event itself happened.
Now I've been out here two weeks after the shooting took place.
And I've got to tell you, folks, the fact is that anyone should have been able to see someone climbing up on that roof.
And of course, there's new footage, which was released yesterday, that show him not lying prone, by the way, but actually running around on the roof itself.
Big question to be answered here.
Why is it the Secret Service director told us at length, angrily, that this guy was prone, that he was laying prone the whole time, and then video comes out showing him running around on the building.
If he was running around on the building, If he was running around without, you know, laying himself prone, without concealing himself, why was it that the counter sniper team was not informed that this indeed was the person of interest that they had been tracking, that local law enforcement had been tracking?
You don't say, oh, we're dealing with something.
No, you would pass that we're dealing with a potential armed gunman.
He's got a backpack.
He's got all of these things.
We're really supposed to believe this was just a breakdown in communication and that's all that went wrong.
Look, I've just walked the site myself.
Let me tell you something.
That's not a far distance.
This is the immediate first building.
It's the first building, the first building between where Donald Trump was and that building complex, the AGR complex over there.
There's no question that that roof should have been covered.
And number two, those overwatch buildings that you can see, and actually even in the footage that we're showing right now, this B-roll, it's hard to realize that The second floor windows there overlook the building.
So they're overlooking that building.
So if you were inside that roof, you should have been able to see someone on the lower roof because that building is actually lower than the ones where the sniper team was supposed to be.
Uh, potentially this local sniper team.
So there's so many questions here.
We are going to get to the bottom of it because this is something where, and, and look, I got some good news yesterday.
Involving the book on humans.
We just found out that on humans, I actually got a call during the Trump rally in Harrisburg last night.
We drove up to Pittsburgh and Butler after, but I got the good news that on humans did make the New York Times bestseller list.
Very excited about that.
Want to give a huge thank you, by the way, to the audience and everybody who purchased that.
But I have to tell you that even though, you know, when you hit something like the New York Times bestseller list, you're supposed to be patting yourself on the back and, you know, doing your victory lap.
Most people would be going doing more media.
I got to tell you, the only thing I can think about is those 148 yards between Thomas Matthew Crooks and President Trump and the fact that we know we know for a fact now the Secret Service acting director is lying to us.
We know that the FBI is not giving us the true information about this individual, first saying that he had no social media, then he's saying that he might have social media.
Then they throw out this stuff about it's anti-Semitic, but when they get pushed, they say, well, no, actually, he was pro-immigrant and pro-Biden.
So, OK, which is it?
You're giving us double stories.
You're giving us double talk.
You won't give us basic information.
Chris Wray spreading this absolutely false conspiracy theory information operation, saying that it was shrapnel that hit the president.
Look, folks, I don't know, but we've got to absolutely get to the bottom Of what happened on that field in Butler, Pennsylvania, that put this country one inch away from the brink.
We were one inch away from the brink of losing all of this, of civil war, of mass civil unrest, totalitarian governance.
Take your pick.
That's what could have happened there.
Something else, by the way, running around, we've got Richard Barris coming up later here in the show to talk about this, is the fact That Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro is potentially going to be our next vice presidential candidate for the Democrat National Committee.
He seems to be the front runner.
All of my reporting shows that he is in the lead for this, been on the road a lot.
So I have to double check back in with my sources.
But I got to tell you that with this guy going in, one of the big stories that a lot of people are going to start asking questions about This is a story that I've known about for a long time being from the Philadelphia area.
Everyone in Philadelphia talks about it.
Everybody wants to know is the story of Ellen Greenberg, the story of Ellen Greenberg.
And what is Josh Shapiro's connection to this case?
So the death of Ellen Greenberg, was it a suicide or was it a homicide?
So Ellen Greenberg, young woman engaged to be married only months away from her wedding, trying on this back in 2011.
She was found dead in her apartment.
Stabbed 20 times, including two which were actually post-mortem.
Why do we know that?
Well, because there was no hemorrhaging.
If there's no hemorrhaging, it stands to reason that's because there was no pulse because she'd already been killed.
Now, if you don't have blood coursing through your veins, if your heart isn't beating, That you don't have the ability to raise your arm and put a knife into your back.
Yet for some reason, the Philadelphia Coroner's Department initially had labeled this thing as homicide.
Defensive wounds, by the way, found on Ellie Greenberg's body.
But they then later changed it to suicide.
And the Philadelphia D.A., Soros Tide D.A., Larry Krasner, has upheld the fact that it was a suicide.
And then Pennsylvania's attorney general held up this new labeling of suicide.
What was that attorney general's name, by the way, when it came up?
Oh, that's right.
Josh Shapiro.
So before Josh Shapiro became the governor of Pennsylvania, which he is currently, he backed up the idea that Ellen Greenberg somehow was able to stab herself in the back Well, her heart was not beating and somehow she was able to do all of these things after she had been stabbed 20 times.
So the question is, was this really a suicide or was this potentially homicide?
And if it was a homicide, the question of course becomes, who was the killer?
Who was the perpetrator of this disgusting heinous act?
Innocent young girl in Pennsylvania.
Josh Shapiro won't give you those answers.
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Where is he?
Jack, I want to see you.
Great job, Jack.
Thank you.
What a job you do.
You know, we have an incredible thing.
We're always talking about the fake news and the bad, but we have guys, and these are the guys should be getting Pulitzer's.
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I want to bring on now Richard Barris, the people's pollster.
Now, Rich, we're of course talking all about, I was diving into one of these cases that Josh Shapiro played a role back in Philadelphia, back in his time as Attorney General, immediately prior to becoming Governor.
There's all this talk about him being chosen as the VP candidate under Kamala Harris.
Got to get your take on that, and then your overall, I know you guys have a new poll out, I want to get into your overall take on the case, but let's look at it this way.
Do you believe that if she does indeed choose Josh Shapiro, or whoever she chooses next Is that going to play a major change or a major role in this race?
I'm not, I don't subscribe to the school of thought that VP candidates are a huge impact.
I mean, they can be marginal, Jack, but the presidential candidate has got to win the state on their own.
They've got to do it on their own.
So, uh, you know, I never did buy that.
It's like the old LBJ thing.
And then that led to like decades of us all, you know, going out, pining on the impact of vice presidential candidates, but.
Look, Paul Ryan not only couldn't help Mitt Romney carry Wisconsin, he couldn't even help him carry the first congressional district, his own district.
So I really don't buy that.
I mean, the thing with Shapiro, and I do think he's a pick, the thing with Shapiro is that he ran against Mastriano.
Nobody helped Mastriano.
He was viewed to be, like, too Trumpy.
The RGA didn't do anything.
So, I mean, I hope the Harris team is doing their due diligence, because it didn't take you too long to find something.
You know, they can hurt the top of the ticket, but they can only very marginally help the top of the ticket.
And he's more likely to help her because he's the governor of Pennsylvania, and they have enormous power over how elections are conducted.
For right or wrong by the way, but that he's more likely to help her in that capacity than he is with his electoral appeal I actually think that if they do pick Shapiro, they're gonna be trading some votes You know, he's not gonna play well in some parts of Michigan and Minnesota.
That's for sure But they are gonna I do think it's him because their plan is very clearly Pennsylvania and then peel off some of the Sun belts.
That's the way that's what they feel they can do.
That's the goal Well, it clearly is.
And this is going to be a belt election.
So it's the Sun Belt and the Rust Belt.
So these are the two belts.
And by the way, every time I talk about that, people always say, like, what about my part of the country?
Don't we matter?
I say, no, you matter.
But you matter differently in the way that these swing states matter.
And that's not a function of any one person or a value statement on any one person.
But it does.
It explains how the demographics have shifted around our country to be in such a way Where pockets of certain states are willing to move one way or the other.
And by the way, Rich, here's something that I was pointing out to a lot of reporters last night when I was in Harrisburg.
They said, well, you know, Josh Shapiro has won a lot of votes in this state.
He's won statewide a number of times, you know, including 2020 when he ran for AG.
Do you think that, you know, he's going to be real formidable?
And I said, I said, have you even looked at the crosstabs of that?
Is that a lot of Pennsylvania voters will split their tickets.
They vote with their wallets like most of the Rust Belt does.
And and yeah, he only won statewide because and this is what people need to understand.
And I know that conservatives won't like it when I say this, but there were Trump Shapiro voters in 2020.
That's how he was able to win.
And so but if you put someone down who's a Trump Shapiro voter and say, OK, now choose that one for president and who will be associated with the the other presidential ticket, they're going to choose Trump every time.
But this is something that they don't understand about when about going under the hood of these elections, that those type of voters are always going to go with the strongest force that they believe in the race with 2020.
They saw that as Trump Shapiro, but going ahead for that specific race, again, like I'm saying for Trump all the way.
Yeah, we're politicos, so, you know, there are people out there who just can't understand how there could be a Shapiro-Trump vote, but there definitely is.
I mean, I don't know how you can argue there isn't.
And also, too, this is something we discussed a lot during the Republican primary.
Your performance at a statewide level for statewide office is basically no indication of how you're going to perform for a federal office.
If that was, then Bradenton would have been the senator from Tennessee instead of Marsha Blackburn.
That is something we have to discuss every election cycle.
It doesn't seem to seep into people's heads.
When Tip O'Neill said all politics are local, he really was talking about gubernatorial races.
Because you can have somewhere like the nutmeg state, Connecticut, vote for Republican governors.
You can have Massachusetts vote for Republican governors.
You can have Pennsylvania vote for a Democratic governor.
But it does not mean that when they run for Senate or when they run for the presidency, that they will carry that state.
By the way, Al Gore lost his home state of Tennessee when he ran against George W. Bush.
Now, his dad was a senator from that state.
You know, so many years ago, things change.
But gubernatorial politics are almost like the worst indications of how people are going to vote at the presidential level.
The worst.
But this is something, too, and I have to say this, by the way, to like the other conservative, I don't know, pundits, media, prognosticators, whatever you want to call it, is that there is a reason why the Mitt Romneys and the John McCains and the Paul Ryans lost the Rust Belt, OK?
There's a reason because these people vote with their wallets and they vote for jobs.
You guys focused on overseas, you wanted to send wars overseas, you wanted to send our boys and girls overseas and soldiers overseas, and you wanted to send Jobs overseas.
And then a Democrat comes in and says, you know what?
I'm all about jobs, jobs, jobs.
I'm all about unions.
And people hear that and they say, OK, that's what I'm going to vote for.
That's why none of those guys could ever play in these states.
There's no chance.
We just didn't trust to handle issues.
And one of the issues that I was dying to see the results of was labor and union issues.
Because Biden had been cratering, and we all know that, and he began to really lose ground against Trump on issues that Democrats almost always carry when you ask people, who do you trust to handle those issues more?
And this month, when we asked, who do you trust to handle labor and union issues?
Donald Trump actually edged out Kamala Harris as well.
44.3 to 41.9, so about a two-point edge for Trump, which sounds like nothing until you realize that Republicans are never supposed to have an edge at all over the Democrat on union and labor issues, Jack.
When you dig further into the cross tabs, you'll see union households are backing Kamala Harris, but not private union households.
So what does it matter in the Rust Belt?
Public union households are like Northern Virginia folks, right?
So it makes sense Kamala is doing better in a state like Virginia.
But Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and less so Wisconsin now, Michigan, Pennsylvania, these are private unions.
We're talking about welders and steel workers and right?
And those are the people that, you know, by the way, they voted for Barack Obama twice.
And now they're among the most Trump loyal people out there.
They will never vote for a traditional Republican.
I hate to burst everybody's bubble, but that is not going to happen.
You know, Rick St.
Cone tried to do the impossible there, beat Conor Lamb, you know, with Trump there by his side.
He closed the gap, but he still had that what?
But Rick Saccone had a brand of, because he did have the history, of being kind of anti-union.
So no matter how much he tried to change his stripes, it didn't work.
It was close, but it didn't work.
And again, I think that's a big problem for Harris.
There's a couple of groups we did see move back to Harris.
Private union workers were not one of them.
By the way, we're just getting breaking news in that Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro has canceled his fundraising events for this weekend in New York and the Hamptons.
And, you know, that could mean a lot of things.
That could mean a lot of different things.
But, you know, possibly one thing we've been hearing about is in-briefing for Secret Service, potential for looking at his family, etc.
So we're going to figure that out.
We're going to find out more what's going on there.
And dig deeper, but again, all indications for what I'm hearing, Josh Shapiro is the front runner.
It's his to lose as a vice presidential pick here going into the final few weeks of the presidential race here in 2024.
Right back, Richard Barris, The People's Pundit.
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We're on with Rich Barris, the People's Pundit.
Rich, so you've been crunching the numbers.
We've also been looking at a lot of these polls.
I see a lot of people around me, they're blackmailing.
They're saying, a lot of Republicans calling me saying, oh, we're blackmailed again.
Total despair.
Kamala Harris is going to run away with this.
They're just totally believing all the media headlines out there.
What's going on?
I don't know.
Let me cover some of this noise.
You know, I'm like beating a dead horse over here.
Let me just throw this stat out there.
So, last couple of months, you know, a lot of Republicans have been super willing to talk to pollsters, and the electorate has looked like it was going to be rather Republican.
You saw the Gallup Party identification was R plus 6 nationwide.
Democrats have kind of been hiding under a rock as Joe Biden flops on the debate.
There's the attempted assassination of Donald Trump.
And that definitely impacts polling.
I mean, it impacts what we call response bias that could, you know, affect a poll.
Like certain groups are just more willing to talk that week or that month.
A great example is Mitt Romney.
He was never leading Barack Obama by four.
Pew Research just, you know, did a poll after he beat Barack Obama in the first debate and more Republicans were willing to talk.
But that wasn't really reflect, you know, it wasn't an accurate reflection of public opinion.
And Americans are getting hit every week, every two weeks, at least every month with like once in a lifetime stories.
If you don't think that's going to impact or cause a fuel or response bias, then I would argue you don't know what you're talking about.
Of course it does.
And this month, black voters alone were almost 17 percent.
But Democrats were much more likely to want to participate in polling.
And the raw data itself was just more Democratic.
And I think that's something that other – not just me, but other pollsters no doubt see, and they're not telling the whole story here.
I got to tell you, like I said – The race clearly tightened.
You can see the headline from Big Data Poll.
It absolutely did tighten, but I would argue it's really caused more by this.
We can get into different groups that legitimately move to Kamala Harris, but what is going on here is not, that's not the totality of it.
It's not that she jumped in the media heat praise on her, and people are legitimately changing their minds.
Democrats are getting more excited.
They're reporting to be more certain to vote, more enthusiastic than they were in the last couple of months.
So, you know, when we did find these leads that were Trump plus seven, you know, I'm trying to be consistent here.
I told people then that I thought that was like flatly unbelievable.
Sure, that's the number, but Republicans are just more juiced right now and Biden's collapsing.
Was he going to win?
He was going to win in a landslide.
Trump was headed for a runaway election.
I honestly think that this is more reflecting reality.
I think Biden would have bounced back somewhat.
And this is probably, I mean, it's just as likely, let me put it this way, it's just as likely that this is the high point for Kamala.
Her image is not as favorable as Trump's is in our poll.
How people view her job, you know, her handling her role as vice president is not as positive as how they now view Donald Trump handling his role as president.
And they trust Trump to handle the issues more than they trust Harris.
So while people are saying, yeah, I'm going to vote for her there, the support right now anyway, looks soft.
Now the media, this is something I want to throw out as well in terms of what you're saying is that she seems to be positioning herself as a challenger.
but that's not actually true.
And something that I saw Trump do last night at the rally, and I'm sure his campaign is going to pivot towards very soon, is the fact that she is the incumbent.
She is the incumbent vice president.
She's associated with everything this administration has done.
Yes, a lot of people place the blame, rightfully so, on Joe Biden, but she's been there every step of the way.
holding his his cream peas and his his stewed cabbage.
And look, if she's got these wonderful ideas for the country, why don't you do it right now, Kamala Harris?
You're the one who's in office.
There's something that was a finding in the poll that really surprised me how potent the really the attack or her vulnerability is with the fact that voters believe that, of course, she knew about Joe Biden's decline and they were lied to.
So that actually turned out to be a much more potent attack than I thought.
What didn't, Is immigration, and I'm going to tell you why.
Even though he leads by the biggest margin on trust to handle issues on immigration.
The reason why is because not a significant number of voters understand that Joe Biden named her as the border czar and put her in charge of getting the crisis at the border under control.
This explained to me immediately why the media rushed to wipe Everything mentioning her as a border czar from the history books.
And they tried to rewrite her role in getting the border under control.
Because I guarantee you, when Democrats did that last round of polling before they threw Biden out, they did all of this testing.
And they saw what I saw, which is like 36%.
No, that Kamala Harris was the borders are and that was her job to get the border under control.
Everyone else does not.
So it's an incredible like opportunity to put this.
It kind of reminds me of Gerald Ford, Jack, right?
Gerald Ford tried very hard to get out from underneath the shadow of the Nixon administration.
And you just can't, you know, because you are, of course, part of it.
You're their vice president.
So I just, um, you know, I think that, you know, we got one minute here.
Yeah.
Last question.
Does it, does it help her if Joe Biden drops as president and she becomes the acting president as we go into November?
You know, it should, from a historical and empirical evidence point of view, it should.
Because then she would be the sitting incumbent and it would be her own, and it could give her the opportunity to tell her own story and do her own, you know, make her own image.
That being said, nobody has ever accused Kamala Harris of running anything competently in her life.
That could backfire.
So, of course, she'll have the media on her side, but it's risky.
Very risky.
I'm surprised they haven't done it already.
Where can people find you, Rich, to get more on that and everything you're working on?
