July 27, 2024 - Human Events Daily - Jack Posobiec
01:11:02
THOUGHTCRIME Ep. 52 — How Do You Say Kamala? What’s Wrong With DEI? Did the Race Just Reset?
In this week’s ThoughtCrime Charlie Kirk, Jack Posobiec, Andrew Kolvet, and Tyler Bowyer:-How do you ACTUALLY pronounce Kamala Harris’ name?-If DEI is such a good thing, why is the media coming out in full force against it in defense of Kamala? -Does the race reset with Kamala? What are the tactics consevatives must employ to defeat her? THOUGHTCRIME streams LIVE exclusively on Rumble, every Thursday night at 8pm ET.Support the Show.
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome aboard to this week's edition of ThoughtCrime.
Today on this week's episode, Charlie, myself, and the gang discuss a strategy session.
What is the best way forward to deal with the 15-week shootout that this snap election has become between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris?
And also, sidebar, what's the right way to say Kamala anyway?
Kamala?
We're gonna get into it.
Let's get ready to commit some more thought crimes.
From the age of Big Brother.
If they want to get you, they'll get you.
The NSA specifically targets the communications of everyone.
They're collecting your communications.
Okay, everybody, welcome to Thought Crime.
It's been a while.
We have Jack and Andrew here.
Tyler should be coming in at some point.
All right.
I'm going to ask the question.
I mean this.
I don't mean any disrespect.
I don't know the answer to this, but I refuse to do what they tell me to do.
How do you say it?
Is it Kamala?
Kamala?
Kamala?
What is the action?
Everyone says, Charlie, you're mispronouncing it.
And I do it different every time.
What is the right, Andrew, how do you say it?
Kamala.
Wait, no, I say Camilla.
I say Camilla.
So wait, is it Camilla?
Kamala is how I say it.
How do you say it, Jack?
I say Kamala.
Like, so it rhymes with comma.
Like when you use a comma in a sentence, Kamala.
Sir, Mika Brzezinski is saying, Mika Brzezinski is saying that if you mispronounce a name, that, uh, that it's, it's a hate crime.
So Mika Brzezinski and, uh, John Scarborough over there are very, very upset if we mispronounce a name.
All right.
So, uh, Kamala, there's Kamala, Kamala, and Kamala.
Am I, those are the three options.
Or Kamilla?
No, there's nobody says Kamilla.
No, Camilla is the Boris Johnson.
No, wait.
Yeah, Queen Camilla.
Queen Camilla, not Boris Johnson.
The King Charles's wife is Camilla.
But that's the three, right?
It's Kamala, Kamala, and Kamala.
Wait, wait.
I have chat TPT up.
Let me ask chat TPT.
Can you hear this?
Hold on.
Can you hear this if I do this?
Maybe.
We're not hearing anything.
Thank you.
Thank you.
You can't hear it?
No.
No, what did it say?
Kamala.
It's saying Kamala Harris is pronounced K-A-M-A-L-A Harris.
But I don't like the way that he pronounces Harris.
I say Harris, not Harris.
Harris.
But hold on, but just looking at it, looking at it phonetically, why all of a sudden do we have the K-A-M-A-L-A?
The Kamala.
I don't understand where that comes from.
It's K-A-M-A-L-A.
Right?
Cam along.
Going back to chat team PT for this.
What does Kamala mean?
The name Kamala has roots in several languages and cultures, with meanings that are often associated with beauty and nature, just like Kamala Harris.
In Sanskrit, Kamala means lotus, a symbol of beauty, purity, and enlightenment.
In Hindi, Kamala often refers to the lotus flower.
Ah, but here we go.
In Arabic, while not as common, Kamala can also mean perfection or completeness.
There you go.
Perfect fit.
Couldn't think of a better description.
Purity.
Lotus flower.
Got it.
Yeah, purity.
When I think of purity, I think of Kamala.
So the, the, I, again, I, I get all these emails here of people that are, Oh, you're mispronouncing it.
You're mispronouncing it.
I, I, does this matter guys?
How you say, cause I don't know the actual, cause I've heard her say before Camilla.
I, I genuinely can say none of us mean to be doing something racist by not knowing the actual pronunciation of the name.
I've been exposed to this woman for however many years I live in California.
I still don't actually know what, what the right one is.
It's a genuine, genuine question.
Somebody get a clip from MSNBC with her.
So, so that Ryan find a clip so we can.
All right.
This is cut 40.
This is Mika Brzezinski trying to scold us for not pronouncing it correctly.
Whatever the way is play cut 40.
And I've heard from inside Republican circles and right-wing media that the hate campaign against Kamala Harris has begun.
You'll notice they purposefully pronounce her name wrong.
They say Kamala.
They do it all the time.
It is on purpose.
But the talk is to start that hate campaign and get it going and start it churning.
Now here is her saying her own name, PlayCut41.
Good afternoon.
I want to welcome these leaders for coming in to have this very important discussion about some of the most pressing issues of our time.
I am Kamala Harris.
My pronouns are she and her.
I am a woman sitting at the table wearing a blue suit.
Wait, wait, wait.
I heard Kamala Harris there.
I didn't hear Kamala.
What are you talking about?
If you enter it in comma, it kind of helps you.
Kamala Harris.
Yeah.
I heard Kamala Harris.
That's the way.
But then shouldn't it be spelled K-O-M not K-A-M?
It's an ethnic name.
Which ethnicity does she claim again?
No, it's that's the Indian part.
She is South Asian and Jamaican.
It's Kamala.
Kamala.
Yeah, I got it.
Thank you, Jack.
That was like the key right there.
I'm going to keep saying it.
I don't believe it.
I'm going to say Kamala.
I don't believe it.
So, it doesn't make any sense.
We try, folks.
We try.
I look at it.
It says Kamala.
But here's the thing that I can't stand.
I've been saying this the same way now for five years and no one has cared until she becomes the high priestess of the Democrat Party.
I actually think about it every time you say it.
I actually think about it.
I really do.
Yeah.
I don't even mean disrespect.
It's just so ingrained into how I say it.
No, I've also known that whenever anyone has ever brought up like, Oh, Charlotte's actually said this way that you'll hear it once and then you'll go right back to the way every single time.
And it's, and this is literally like, like, it doesn't matter who it is.
It's just, it's just, that's, that's true.
It's very true about Charlotte.
Yeah.
And somebody has to prep him for interviews and we're getting like a name pronunciation and I'll like, I'll call him in the break and I'll give him the name pronunciation.
It'll come out live, like basically whatever his default was.
So, but, but, but on, on the other hand, as a guy who's got a last name, that's hard to say in English, Charlie's always gotten it right.
There you go.
There you go.
Yeah, exactly.
There you go.
No, I'll try to rhyme it to Jack Posobiec, no Posobiec.
No, I mean no disrespect, but this whole like control of language thing, can we have some like phonetic, you know what she should do?
She should have her yard signs and then have like the phonetic spelling underneath.
That wouldn't help.
Kamala.
Is that what it, right?
It's Kamala.
Or is it Kamala?
No, just make a picture of a comma.
Like put a picture of a comma.
Is it Kamala or Kamala?
Well, no, I'm not sure.
I'm writing a musical now.
Pamela.
Pamela.
I got it.
I got it now.
All right.
But hey, Charlie, here's what else?
Racist.
We have to play 133 because they're now on CNN.
No, on CNN, they're saying that if you call her a DEI candidate, it's akin to saying the N-word.
But then you have another clip.
Then Joe Biden literally calls her the shining star of his DEI policy.
So play cut 133.
This is a right-wing campaign that's going to be racist, misogynistic against the vice president.
They want to call her a DEI president, a DEI candidate.
She has more experience than Trump and J.D.
Vance combined times a million, right?
So these are just racist dog whistles.
Whenever you hear DEI, I want you to think about the N-word.
I want you to think about racial slurs.
That's what they actually mean.
To me, the values of diversity, equality, inclusion, are literally, and that's not kidding, the core strengths of America.
That's why I'm proud to have the most diverse administration in history.
It taps into the full talents of our country.
It starts at the top with the Vice President.
First of all, what's wrong with being a DEI pick?
I got attacked for even attacking anybody for being a DEI pick on this very program.
I thought that's a beautiful thing.
Yeah, but now they know it's bad PR.
This is what Michael Anton calls the celebration parallax, where when we say something is going on and it's bad, it's either racist or a conspiracy theory or both.
When they say something is happening and it's good, it's of course true and it's wonderful.
So when you're celebrating D.E.I., of course you're able to say D.E.I., but when you're attacking D.E.I., you're a racist.
Which is also amazing, because he says, when you hear D.E.I., I want you to think about the N-word.
And it's like, but you guys came up with D.E.I.
The right doesn't come up with weird acronyms like this and, you know, throw stuff out there like that.
We come up with lots of words and phrases.
We do red pill, blue pill, black pill, white pill.
We do all that kind of stuff, sure.
The weird phrases and having Wall Street back all this up.
Nah, man, that's all you guys.
That's all you guys in your three letters.
And so I am trying to figure out why exactly it is that suddenly DEI equals the n-word.
I said, oh my gosh, DEI is the n-word.
I guess we should just ban it across the country.
We should probably ban anyone who's using that from using bank accounts or PayPal or Square or any of the, you know, Venmo or Cash App or anything.
Gosh, DEI is the n-word.
There you go.
OK, so I think I think I got it figured out.
So I used to call her Cammie.
And now I'll call her Commie.
There we go, folks.
There we go.
That's through.
Commie Harris.
Now I now I know how to remember it.
Commie Harris.
We have victory.
Commie Harris victory.
All right.
Let's play cut 136.
It's all about mnemonics, by the way.
Language learning in general.
It's all about mnemonics.
Let's play Cut 136.
She's a U.S.
Senator now running to be Vice President, but some people still don't know how to say her first name.
In 2016, she released a video about it with some help from some little friends.
It's not Kamala.
It's Kamala.
Kamala Harris.
Well, the Senator says she's used to people mispronouncing her name, but says it's easy to remember.
Just combine Kama with La, and you get Kamala.
Now all these other options, I wasn't even entertaining all these other options.
Kami Harris.
Kami Harris for president.
Now this has been very instructive.
And for media matters out there, Kami Harris.
OK?
We're all good?
Kami Harris.
So now we're in a recalibration mode right now.
We're kind of resetting with the Kami at the top of the ticket.
Jack, I feel as if we have more clarity.
Actually, Andrew, I'll go to you first.
Andrew, I feel as if we have more clarity about the stakes in front of us.
The data is still coming down.
It looks like a moderate improvement for the Democrats, but nothing significant.
They have a lot of pent up.
They've had 18 months where they've been waiting and waiting and waiting for something to be excited about.
And they're just kind of getting it all out.
Andrew, what is the state of the race?
Yeah, I think you're going to see the sugar high.
There's no doubt.
But I think they're going to be and I don't say this is with hopium.
I'm not saying this is somebody that I mean, if this if things were really dire, I would say it.
I think you're going to see a bump with young Gen Z women and you're going to see a dip with Gen Z men, millennial men.
I think you're going to see a dip on her part.
You're going to see boomers.
Coming home to the Republican Party.
I don't think that they are going to be into a radical California left-wing female, frankly.
But, you know, regardless, I think the same would happen if you pick Gavin Newsom.
So I just don't think the Midwest is going to go for a California radical left-wing person.
So I think you're going to see the bump.
We still got to write out the DNC.
They're going to get a little bit of a press bump from that.
I mean, one of the things that I've been shocked at, Charlie, not shocked, but It was abrupt because of the fact that the left-wing media had become so fixated on pointing out all the flaws that were going on, the chaos that was going on behind the scenes within the Biden administration.
Suddenly, they got curious.
Suddenly, there was leaks everywhere.
Suddenly, it was panic, pandemonium.
And now, on a dime, they have flipped into full-on propaganda mode on behalf of Kamala Harris.
And it's abrupt.
Like, the pivot was distinct.
And so, you know, if it wasn't clear before, Kamala getting installed as the nominee is, is really jarring from a media landscape standpoint because of just how sudden the about face was.
The switcheroo happened and then bingo, everything's pro Kami.
So I mean, for, for my perspective, I think they're going to see a little sugar high.
It's going to settle out.
Don't panic.
We were expecting this.
But I just don't think that the fundamentals of the race are still the same.
They're gonna try and drive up the score, build energy, build donor base.
I just don't see a lot of these voter groups that they're losing coming back.
And one of the underappreciated things from 2020, Charlie, you and I have talked about this.
Between 2016 and 2020, Donald Trump lost some of the white vote.
White men specifically.
He lost that enough to actually lose the race.
Remember, it was 42,000 votes in three states.
I'm not sure that this move to Kamala Harris is going to help.
And I don't care if they throw a white man on the ticket, whether that's Bashir, Cooper, Shapiro, or Kelly.
I don't see it making up enough ground.
I think Trump's going to get back to those 2016 numbers with men.
Jack, what is the state of the race in your analysis?
Well, Charlie, look, I think people need to understand something that it's a jump ball.
There's a lot of imbalance right now.
Normally, we haven't seen the Democrats move so fast like this.
We haven't seen Leviathan.
We haven't seen the blob move so quickly before.
They ran an operation and they ran it very, very quickly.
Remember, Barack Obama was talking about an open process just a few days ago.
Well, suddenly the process is gone.
So where is the open process he was talking about now that she's already cinched the delegates?
The state of the race, though, of course, is that all of the entire mainstream media Hollywood reality machine is lining up behind Kamala Harris.
This has never happened before.
And by the way, the data that's coming in now is still not even quite reflective of that, because there was the Kamala Harris who didn't have the full support She's gone from cringe to brat.
She's gone from cringe to awesome.
And it's like, well, wait a minute.
Now Republicans and conservatives and your independent moderate types might be looking at that saying, well, I don't understand.
You said she was cringe before.
Look at this, she's the number one trending topic on TikTok.
She's gone from cringe to brat.
She's gone from cringe to awesome.
And it's like, wait a minute, now Republicans and conservatives and your independent moderate types might be looking at that saying, well, I don't understand.
You said she was cringe before, now she's awesome.
Tens of millions of voters believe whatever television and their push notifications tell They just do.
It's a fact of life, it's a fact of the situation.
We've been fighting it, we've been doing very well with it, but it still is part of what we have to deal with.
With that entire machine getting behind her, and now it's going to be pumping her and pushing her across the finish line for the next 15 months, We have to understand that only through social media—thank God, by the way, that Elon has freed the bird and given us X—to allow us at least a fighting chance to come back where we can point out these times when she makes these gaffes, when she says these ridiculous things on the stump.
But again, the people on her side are going to watch, and President Trump has already agreed to a couple of debates with her, where they're gonna watch the debate, but then they'll see the media coverage, and the media coverage will say she did fantastic, she did amazing, no matter how she does.
That's what the media is going to say, and these folks will believe that.
And so it's incumbent on us to absolutely try to frame this as immediate as possible, And I'm not seeing, though I've been starting to with a couple of shows, Charlie, you and me, of course, is frame this not just as, okay, she's a lib, but also the fact that this is someone who is heartless.
This is someone who's ruthless.
This is someone who's uncaring.
She's not caring about the lives of the people in San Francisco, which she completely destroyed and then moved on.
The people of California, which she completely walked all over and then moved on.
Andrew, obviously, can talk about that.
And then her tenure in office, not caring after Afghanistan fell, not caring after everything that happened in Ukraine and her direct role in that, by the way, nearly provoking World War III at the Munich Conference just days before Putin invaded.
And then, of course, not caring about people like Laken Riley, who was raped and murdered by illegal immigrants that came across during her watch.
This is what people need to explain.
All the laughing, the cackling, the me, me, me.
It's narcissism.
It's repackaged narcissism.
Kamala Harris only cares about power, ambition, herself, vainglory, pride.
That's who she is.
She has no connection, no empathy, and the media is going to try to tell you, yes, she does, yes, she does, yes, she does.
That's going to have to be the split.
And you know what, Charlie?
They did the same thing with Hillary.
This is kind of like the, you know, Hillary 2.0 campaign.
So it's almost like, in these last 15 weeks, we're getting a replay of Trump v. Hillary, only it's Trump v. California Hillary with California commie coming up.
And what Andrew is saying is right.
And I think, by the way, Yes.
that Republicans and Trump need to do two things.
Number one is remind, in terms of demographic, remind these people hate men.
Democrats hate men.
It is explicit in their platform.
It is their program.
Kamala Harris is first and foremost among this.
Yes, he has great experience.
Yes, he has a great business.
that, but I think really first and foremost that they hate men.
Number two is, look, you've got to have the power of narrative versus the power of narrative.
They're producing their narrative.
Donald Trump's single strongest narrative right now.
Yes, he has a great record.
Yes, he has great experience.
Yes, he has a great business.
But his single strongest record is not that.
He survived an assassin's bullet.
And I think that, and Charlie, you and I were talking offline about this earlier, that there was perhaps a missed opportunity at the RNC because the Trump family, Trump's son and his granddaughter spoke about this at length, but the rest of the family didn't make this a huge, and Laura and Eric, The emotional side of it is what I'm getting at.
The emotional side wasn't really played up.
We haven't seen any interviews with Melania Trump talking about this, or potentially even Barron, who appeared at a rally, but then also was conspicuously not at the RNC.
I think there's a lot of stories still left to be told.
And honestly, I'd love to see a story of someone interviewing Donald Trump on camera, talking about those events and, you know, perhaps show, right, show that there was a real possibility of Remember, just half an inch away from the end of everything and potentially massive unrest in the United States.
And show that human side.
Let me ask you a political question here, Jack.
Play devil's advocate.
Is that what if, comma, law.
is able to use this multi-billion dollar machine that has never existed until Donald Trump came along because it was part of the resistance.
She's able to excite younger women, able to excite urban minorities in those corridors, is able to do a lot of ballot harvesting and ballot chasing, and they're able to overperform the polls.
What if, I'm playing devil's advocate here, What if Kamala is able to rebuild the Obama coalition, pick a moderate vice president like Shapiro or Kelly, and make this a very tight race where they defeat us in trench warfare?
What do you think of that as a potential vector of what could materialize this fall if we're not on our guard?
Charlie, that's exactly what they're doing.
That is 100% what they're doing.
And so all of this, oh, we're not enthusiastic for Joe Biden, and there's no interest, etc.
No, no.
They are absolutely putting everything behind her, that $81 million, which I'm sure totally came from just small-dollar donors.
No, no, that was a message, okay?
That was a message that, guess what?
The regime is still here.
The regime is still going to fight.
And the ballot operations are going to be turned on.
Clyburn and his operations and his networks are going to be turned on through the churches in the inner city churches.
So you're going to see a ton of this.
But I will say, I will also say they would not be going through to such an extent of switching out a candidate, putting up someone new, if they could just press a button and win an election.
They would not be spending all this money.
They wouldn't have to.
And so to folks out there who think they're totally black billed and they say, oh, all is lost.
No, there's no blackpilling, no despair.
That's not going to happen on our watch.
They would not be making desperate moves like this if all was lost.
This is a real fight.
People need to understand that.
Right.
And we know some of that.
Maybe we don't know all of it.
But something has changed where their election winning machine isn't working the way it used to.
They're terrified of going up against in a one on one fight against Trump.
And I think that we're in an absolute real political knife fight now for the next 15 weeks, going up to, I think, one hundred three days to November five.
This is a real fight.
People need to understand that.
But it's going to be a lot, a lot tighter than it would be having Joe Biden up there.
Yeah.
So, Andrew, I want to throw to you.
These things go back and forth.
And so the Democrats are going to have some momentum.
Then we're going to regain some recentering and then there'll be air cover, ad cover.
Donald Trump is the best finisher in American politics.
Andrew, if we lose, why would that be?
What is the scenario where Kamala is successful?
I think...
The best scenario is that, you know, she plays tough in Georgia.
She activates the black vote and she picks somebody like Shapiro in Pennsylvania and they pick off those two States.
I think that's their best, their best bet.
They're going to have the ground game advantage.
They're going to have the dark money network advantage.
We know this dark money is going to be Trench warfare, as you pointed out, try let's get out the vote ballot chase.
That's why what we're doing at turning point action is so important to offset that.
And we've got a heck of a ground game in PA.
We've got a heck of a ground game in the Rust Belt in Michigan and Wisconsin, obviously in Arizona.
I like the, the, the fundamentals in Georgia a lot right now.
So I'm less worried about Georgia, but that would be her play the Georgia Pennsylvania play.
I, I think You know, the money advantage and abortion, she's going to play up women's issues.
She's going to play up the abortion issue.
I still fundamentally don't think that that's going to be enough.
She's going to alienate even more voters than she brings in.
But, you know, the media is going to be all behind her.
We've seen it.
They have pivoted full swing.
Can I point out one thing on this media pivot?
You know, as we talk about the way people are consuming their media, and Jack, you know this very well also, you know, you've got an older demographic that's watching media.
I think that despite the media's propaganda, where they're going to be most successful on the airwaves, cable, that that boomer audience and older ex-audience is not, they're not going to take kindly to a radical from California.
It's just it's going to alienate that which Trump was a little bit softer with with the boomers than in previous cycles.
So we were watching that.
I think Kamala is going to Kamala is going to bring them.
I'd say look at I'm catching myself in the neck.
I think she's going to bring those people back to the fold.
We're gonna see Trump's support with boomers increase.
And I think when you talk about that she's doing really well on X, I don't think that you're gonna see, or on TikTok, I don't think you're gonna see those numbers go back to the 2020 numbers that Biden enjoyed.
So I just think structurally, the way the media landscape is now sorted, we've got a much better fighting chance with the younger voters who might be attracted to her message on TikTok and X.
Charlie's doing between five and 10 million views on TikTok a day.
You got Don, you got Joe Rogan, you've got President Trump.
I think we've got a fighting chance on those mediums.
And then the airwaves for cable, older, I just think Kamala's not gonna appeal to that audience. - Let's just also remember, not every younger voter is made the same.
If Kamala Harris is very popular on TikTok with New Yorkers, that means nothing, okay?
If she's super popular in Los Angeles or in Denver, okay?
The swing state younger voters are showing to be more moderate or center-right in their disposition.
She is America's most liberal senator.
And by the way, Jack, I'm gonna let you riff on the memory holing of what the media has been doing with Axios.
You're very different in the policies that you've supported in the past.
You're considered the most liberal United States Senator.
to the scorecard that did this interview, play cut 138.
You're very different in the policies that you've supported in the past.
You're considered the most liberal United States Senator.
Somebody said that, and it actually was Mike Pence on the debate stage.
Well, actually, the nonpartisan GovTrack has rated you as the most liberal Senator.
You supported the Green New Deal.
You supported Medicare for All.
And now the nonpartisan GovTrack has put new footnotes because they're getting hit up by the radical left so much.
She was the most liberal U.S.
Senator.
Jack, that statement right there means we should have a boomer landslide.
So the way I look at it, we're going to lose a little bit more with blacks and with young women.
Yeah, and Charlie, I think one piece that, just to mention again, this was late-breaking news, so obviously all of this is subject to change, but there was a story where she would not be speaking at the Bitcoin conference that's coming up, I believe it's in Miami, and I mean, that's just a huge
Huge, a huge loss.
Also shows you where her money's coming from.
Look, you've got a significant pool of resources there in the crypto community, not just financial, but also intellectual.
These guys are smart.
They're forward thinking.
They're trying to figure out new ways to make things work.
The Winklevoss twins, obviously, we know are very long into crypto.
So many other people.
Elon, of course, has been big on that.
David Sachs.
And so this has been a Huge, huge, I think, windfall for President Trump to move into this territory and for the Biden campaign, now the Harris campaign, to just totally shunt it as well as for from their administration moving to regulate Bitcoin, regulate crypto and come in.
They have absolutely taken the side of what we've always accused them of saying is that you guys are the regime.
You guys are the Death Star.
You guys are the ones on that side.
We are the ones who stand for freedom.
We are the ones who stand for the individual spirit.
We're the ones who actually stand for future forward principles, future forward ideas and solutions, not these top down government controlled solutions.
And so when you're looking at the politics of all that, that's a huge piece as far as her being the most liberal senator.
And now what GovTrack has done, though, this is significant.
What they've done is that they've come in and started to change their ratings.
If you go back in Axios, Axios actually says, just like in 1984, what do you mean?
Kamala Harris was never The Borders Are, and the exact same reporter, Winston Smith, just from 1984 himself.
That's not the reporter's name.
I'm making an analogy here.
This was the same person who wrote the story saying Biden appoints Kamala as Borders are just three years ago.
So now she's not the most liberal senator.
Now she's not the Borders are.
Again, this is the power of media performative effect immediate condition response.
The immediate condition response is if you're one of these people who and there are tens of millions of them in the United States.
Rush, we used to refer to low information voters, They are affected by chronic propaganda all the time.
And they are simply used to being in perceived mode.
When they see the news, they say, oh, my gosh, I can't believe that happened on the news.
Oh, my gosh, I can't believe that happened on the news.
There's the image.
There's no skeptical.
Right.
There's no skepticism.
There's no, there's no, wait a minute, that doesn't comport with whatever I.
And then the gallman amnesia effect is, of course, always that.
Say there is every once in a while.
So the gallman amnesia effect, it comes up a lot.
So say there every once in a while you see a story on the news that perhaps, perhaps you have a direct connection to.
You work in that field.
You are in that you're in that industry.
You know that there's something the media gets wrong.
You say, wait a minute.
You know, let's say, you know, let's say you work in the stock market and you're reading a story in the Wall Street Journal.
And it's a company that you personally know or a startup that you personally know some of the people that are involved with it.
And here's this report, and it's completely wrong.
It's got facts wrong.
It's got dates wrong.
And you're reading it going, man, these guys totally got this wrong.
But the Gilman-Onesia effect is that you turn to the next article and you completely accept everything they say verbatim as gospel.
So this is a huge issue.
This is what the media's power has been.
By the way, this is a huge reason that they pulled Biden in the first place, okay?
Because the media credibility was on the line.
Because the media had been saying for years and years and years that Biden's health and Biden's mental status and Biden's condition was a right-wing conspiracy, that we were the ones who were making it all up.
But then the debate happened, everyone tuned in and walked in live, in real time, 50 million people, and suddenly, Everyone saw that the emperor had no clothes.
So the issue wasn't that Biden had dementia.
They don't care that Biden had dementia.
They liked that he had dementia.
That meant he could be their puppet.
But the issue was the media's credibility was called into question.
That's why who was the lead person who was most harsh on him after the debate?
It was Jake Tapper.
Why?
Because Jake Tapper was at the debate and not saying it in real time.
Why would Jake Tapper go so hard on Joe Biden and make that pivot so quickly right after the debate?
Well, it's very clear because his credibility, low that it is, was still on the line.
That's why they pushed him out to say, we agree There's a problem here.
Now we're pivoting.
They lied to us.
And there were all these stories coming out of Axios and other places saying that the White House lied to us.
It's on them.
It's their fault.
The Kimberly Cheetos, the Jill Bidens, the inner circle, it was all them.
They all lied.
And now we get to go.
Now we had that bump in the road.
And now we could go back to your regularly scheduled programming.
All you normies out there, don't worry about that politics stuff.
We got this great young Kamala Harris.
She's so much younger than Donald Trump.
By the way, I also predict that they will start painting Trump as the older, out-of-touch kind of guy.
You can already see that starting to happen, which, as you say, Charlie, also will help run up the Boomer vote because they'll see the contrast.
And I just need to explain, and I need conservatives or anyone listening to understand this, that tens of millions of normies just believe it.
It's not cynical.
It's not political.
It's not partisan.
They just are in this trance-like state where whatever the media says across the screen, that's what they believe, and then they'll go back to it.
The single person who's been able to break through that is Donald Trump.
Yeah, but Jack, that's what I'm talking about.
Yeah, the breakdown in the demographics here, I'm telling you, the cable news audience is older.
The people that are consuming so much of this propaganda are older.
And I don't think that Kamala is going to do well with older voters.
I just don't.
I think we're going to have the boomer redemption arc here.
And so the truth is getting out.
I mean, this Axios piece got community noted hard, right?
Where they say the Trump campaign and Republicans have tagged Harris repeatedly with the Borders Are title, which she never actually had.
Community note, on April 14th, 2021, Axios's Shauna Chen confirmed Kamala Harris had been appointed Biden's Borders Are in writing.
And that's got 8 million views.
I mean, we know she was appointed the Borders Are.
There's receipts everywhere on that.
We also know that, and we could throw up this image, guys, that she was the most liberal, 141.
So we know this, GovTrack, most liberal.
The internet lives forever compared to all other senators.
This is a nonpartisan GovTrack.
We have the clips, we have her reaction to it, we have it writing, it's all over.
Again, millions and millions of impressions.
So they can try and memory hole things, but they don't have the advantage that they did in 2020, because as you Yeah, a huge, huge reach.
Our Instagram is huge.
Charlie's Instagram, I would venture to guess is the most popular conservative Instagram in the movement.
- Big time. - I mean, we used to get strikes for sneezing wrong on TikTok.
- Yeah, we have explosive reach now.
- Yeah, a huge, huge reach.
Our Instagram is huge.
Charlie's Instagram, I would venture to guess is the most popular conservative Instagram in the movement.
Jack, you're squatting these lies down like flies on X.
We're doing our best.
But I mean, it's just the landscape is such that the people that she would normally appeal to are getting bombarded with both sides of the message.
Meanwhile, cable news, Pravda, older, not going to go for her.
That's my I mean, that's where I'm I'm settling on this.
So, yeah, I mean, look, there's so much back and forth that's going to happen.
Let's see.
We have to remember.
So I'm just looking at all that in the national average of polls, which is Trump is enjoying like a point and a half in the national poll advantage over Kamala.
Maybe two points.
Joe Biden had a four-point final advantage.
Four-point final advantage at the end, if you count all the nonsense, all the ballot stuff, and yet it was determined by 40,000 votes.
So four points nationally, 40,000 votes.
Four points nationally, 40,000 votes.
Now, this is without the Trump campaign.
Running a single ad.
This is with the outside groups being spent 30 to 1, Jack.
We are being outspent on television 30 to 1.
That's gonna close.
There are hundreds of millions of dollars that are about to be deployed.
I know that.
It's all in public filings, by the way.
The money is getting ready.
And you might say, oh, I wish they would have spent it earlier.
Really?
Maybe it was brilliant for them to wait.
Maybe it was brilliant for us to not actually spend anything over the summer.
And I will say this, Jack, can we like go a little bit back in memory lane here?
And Tyler's going to come here in a second.
Donald, something happens in the month of October.
Something happens to Donald J. Trump.
He gets that tunnel vision, he gets Tom Brady in the fourth quarter, he gets Patrick Mahomes in overtime, and the dude finishes.
The only reason 2020 was as close as it was, was not because of a brilliant run campaign, is that Donald Trump was a madman.
I was texting with a New York Times reporter that you know.
Andrew knows this text.
I sent him a copy of it.
And he said, how do you think the race is?
I said, well, honestly, it's going to go back and forth, but Trump is the best finisher.
He said, dude, honestly, I've never seen anything like it in politics.
The last two weeks, he just goes nuts.
He goes ballistic, Jack.
And we have to understand that we're going to embrace early voting, but October comes and Donald Trump hates to lose.
And if we are even in the margin of error going into October, I feel good about our movement coalescing, about our movement coming home, about driving turnout in that voting month.
Jack, your thoughts?
Look, this is something that's going to have to happen because as we dig in, all right, the Trump campaign obviously pivoting right now in that moment.
And by the way, Charlie, something that we haven't really discussed here, and I know we have a couple of minutes left in these segments, is the role of JD Vance.
And I think that this is going to be a time where JD Vance is going to come into absolute key strategic play here, going into those Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, of Michigan and Wisconsin, telling his story.
And I don't just mean JD Vance, by the way, you know, in the suit and tie at the rally or, you know, at the, You know, in the business room or something.
No, I mean, I mean, J.D.
Vance, you know, going fishing, J.D.
Vance talking to people on the street, J.D.
Vance going around in western Pennsylvania, Butler, Pennsylvania, even J.D.
Vance going around in Macomb County, J.D.
Vance going up to going up to Green Bay and some of these places in Wisconsin.
These are going to be the places where this election is fought and won.
And JD Vance has a direct way, really through that hillbilly elegy story, to be able to connect to those voters.
Because I've spent the whole day talking to people about this, and especially women in these areas, because they're saying, look, his story is my son's story.
Or maybe not that people can experience something as drastic as JD did in his childhood.
But you know what?
They all know somebody like that.
They all know a JD Vance.
They know a JD Vance who maybe made it, maybe didn't make it.
But to see someone who went through that and get to where he is, that is the strongest So, Andrew, we have not actually done a thought crime since Trump got shot.
Isn't that amazing to think?
talking about this Hollywood power that Kamala Harris already has.
Guess what?
Hollywood screwed up because they already made a Hollywood movie out of J.D. Vance.
So, Andrew, it's we have not actually done a thought crime since Trump got shot.
Isn't that amazing to think?
We have not done a thought crime since Trump got shot.
Taking a step back, the media has largely forgotten it.
I mean, there has been a lot of news, in all fairness, but the media has forgotten that Trump got shot.
How do you think, if at all, that will play into this election?
I have a feeling that that story is going to die, and then it might actually rise again.
It's something that all of a sudden might become another primary talking point in late September or October.
Andrew, what do you think?
- I was actually thinking about this earlier today of how quickly we've moved on.
But I tend to agree with you, Charlie.
I mean, that image is iconic of him raising his fist in the air.
You know, there's little kids in Africa that are doing videos of it, emulating it.
You see Mark Zuckerberg saying it's the most badass thing he's ever seen in his, you know, in recent memory.
I think it's so big that, you know, whether Trump brings it up on the debate stage, whether J.D.
Vance does, whether they start running ads about it.
It is such a powerful image and such a powerful moment.
And it resonated so deeply at the RNC.
I would be very shocked if it doesn't come up.
So there's ways we can do this from a messaging standpoint.
And why I think that's important is because it evokes something primal in the American spirit.
When you see one of your leaders, even if you don't agree with their politics completely, get nearly assassinated in front of your eyes.
And to see him rise again, defiant, shaking his fist, saying, fight, fight, fight.
That is a primal, red-blooded American thing to get behind.
And there's a lot of swing voters, a lot of even like squishy Democrats that feel that.
I think Mark Zuckerberg would be one of those people.
I wouldn't be surprised if Mark Zuckerberg ends up pulling the lever for Trump this year.
I mean, at least call me maybe naive, but I mean, that's how deeply I think that Be the ones that lead the charge on that because it's so important.
And you, you said something earlier relevant to this, Charlie, and I hate to even put this out in the, in the, in the world.
But, you know, when you talk about that rally schedule towards the end when they're closing, you know, by God, I hope that they are working on that plan now because I want to make sure that there is sufficient planning and advanced teams from a security standpoint, U.S. I hope that they are working on that plan now because I want to make sure that there is sufficient We cannot let this man be put in a vulnerable position again.
So I hope that there will be fixes and solutions to that, because when you talk about event fatigue, you're going to feel that from a Secret Service standpoint in those last couple of weeks leading up to Election Day.
We now have Tyler Boyer here.
Tyler, how we doing?
It's good to see you, Charlie.
You're hiring ballot chasers?
We have a ballot chasing class that's wrapping up as we speak.
25 ballot chasers.
What do you think is the state of the race now?
Get your input of where we're at.
Things are still settling.
The data is still coming in.
Yeah, I mean, I think everybody's freaking out a little bit because you're seeing a little bit of a Kamala entrance jump.
So I don't know if you guys talked about the bump, but I think that's to be expected.
So I think our chat was like, oh man, the polls are looking, but like you have to expect anytime that news breaks.
This is massive news.
Mm-hmm, and there's intrigue right and there's voters that have no idea who Kamala is And just on paper first glance, you know, they're going to make determinations about who they support based off of the very limited information that they have in front of them and Kamala now is going to have to sell her story over the next four months basically, so she's gonna have I actually don't think It goes up for Kamala here.
I think it's the more she talks.
We know this.
We know Kamala.
Everyone knows Kamala.
So she's it's gonna it's gonna go down from here.
But you know, this is this is why the ball's in Trump's court.
It's like it's it's his this is his race to lose at this point.
What type of race should he run?
How much risk should he entertain?
Well, I mean, I think that You don't want to take any risk at this point.
You don't want to be risky when you're up, right?
When you have the ball and you're up, you don't want to be risky, but you want to be smart.
You want to be aggressive.
You want to flex, right?
So Trump needs to do what Trump's good at, which is stick to exactly what he's been saying, which is soft tone, undertone.
I was almost killed, and I take a bullet for this country.
And by the way, I was a much better president than the Biden-Harris regime.
He should connect the two.
They want to kill me because I'm going to close the border.
I don't know.
They want to close the border.
I am a target because I want to do these things.
You connect the two together.
Yeah, of course.
And I think that Americans are naturally doing that.
I think the really interesting part about this entire dynamic that we have coming up here is that Trump is going to, they're going to throw everything they possibly can to throw Trump off his game.
So those are outside, mostly outside things.
And the thing that Trump has done really well this time, as opposed to 2020 and certainly 2016, is he has a fortress built around him, unlike he's ever had before.
So now the fortress can go two ways.
It can go both ways.
It can make him so he's too quiet and he does too little, which just gives them the media space to create Kamala into whatever they want.
Or he can use that fortress to his advantage, which is he can stand on the wall, say the things, not make mistakes, not make fatal errors, and that's all he has to do.
I mean, the reality is this, is that with Biden out of the race, we know anyone can win.
John Fetterman could win.
Joe Biden won.
Yes.
And so let me ask you that the path for Kamala to win would be that she goes pure identity politics, expands the left-wing base, and does huge amounts of ballot chasing, voter registration, all that stuff.
Trump is a one-man-get-out-the-vote machine, plus what we are doing.
She naturally has some issues with baby boomers that I don't think she'll be able to fix.
But she'll be able to win over young women in huge numbers, and she'll be able to do better with blacks.
I don't think Hispanics are going to go to her in big numbers, but blacks and young whites who just are totally propagandized.
And Asian Americans, too.
Young Asians.
Yeah, there's the whole Indian influence.
Which is a smaller population, but we were talking about 10,000 votes.
Yeah, there's Asian Americans, I think, that band together, that Middle Easterners, things like that, that just look at her as like a representation of their American story.
So I want to play this piece of tape here.
On the other side, we're seeing huge movements with streamers, gamers, young men.
Now, here's my concern, guys.
I can't tell you this enough.
And Tyler, you'll love this.
Great that the Paul brothers are endorsing Donald Trump.
I think it's awesome.
I think it takes a lot of courage.
I'm glad they're doing it.
But people saying they're going to vote for Trump online and them voting are two completely different things.
Two completely different things.
And I am very concerned that we have an over-inflated view of our standing if we don't chase ballots to such a ridiculous extent.
Yes.
I think we could underperform polls for the first time with Donald Trump on the ballot.
I want to play this piece of tape as just an introduction.
Play cut 142.
I think I'm going to link up with Trump, and then the Bitcoin conference, and then I'm linking up with Whistling Diesel.
Tell Trump $2 million for the hat he was wearing for the attempted assassination and my full endorsement.
Not that he needs it, but that's my offer.
That's your bid?
My bid's $3 million.
Then I'll do $4.
I'll do $5.
$6.
Justin, Ken Griffin just called.
He's doing $60.
He's doing $60 million.
I legitimately would pay...
With the current money I have now, at my max, I would pay probably $12 million.
Let's go halfsies.
Let's go halfsies, actually.
Tell him.
Tell him.
Let's go halfsies on it.
Yeah, they're making a lot of money.
Doing well.
I'll say this and then can open it up to everybody else.
I think we've already seen that happen, Charlie.
I think we've already seen the underperformance happen.
2022 is a perfect example of that, where the pro-Trump candidates underperform polls almost in every single case.
And we know that better than anyone here in Arizona with Carrie Lake.
Is that she underperformed polls by a lot so And that's I and and I would say that what you're what you're saying Which is there's a lot of manipulation that we know that the left us I think it's somewhere in the ballpark that all of the the very smart people and the election integrity camp say it's six seven percent But you know we we are Also noticing that there are a lot of people who just don't turn out unless we chase them.
And I'll give you a quick story if I can share this.
We have here in Arizona our ballot chasers out knocking doors talking to neighbors.
We knock on the door of a gentleman who's on our list who did not vote.
In either 2016 or 2020.
You gotta show these pictures, by the way.
It's crazy.
He has all the flags.
So he walks in and he goes, they start talking and they quickly get to Trump because he had something that he was wearing or something about Trump.
And so he's like, oh, that's actually what I do.
And they got to him like, are you voting?
It's like, you better believe it.
And he opens up the garage, opens up the garage, and it's not just Trump flags that he has.
It's turning point stuff.
It's everything.
He has turning point action.
Now, to be fair, he voted in 20, but not 2022.
Yeah.
So I think that they pulled the data.
He didn't vote in 16.
He didn't vote in 2022.
So this person is a person who is not... And he didn't vote in 18, I don't think.
...reliable as a voter.
But he has literally nailed to his wall in his garage every yard sign that Turning Point Action's ever made.
So I have a current project.
I'm registering voters like crazy.
There's a guy that I see when I go for a walk, and He's like, all in for Trump.
And I asked, are you registered to vote?
He's like, I'll get to it.
I'll get to it.
I'll get to it.
Every time I see him, are you registered to vote?
No, I just haven't had time.
I just texted him again.
He's like, I'm busy.
Like, what?
This is insane.
This guy loves Trump, wants selfies with me.
I now tell him, like, I don't want to talk to you unless you're registered to vote.
Andrew, do you know the archetype I'm talking about?
Why is it that men have this issue?
Young ladies, I feel as if do what they're told.
They register in numbers.
They fill out their ballot.
It's kind of like men don't do their homework and women do.
Yeah.
I don't know what the psychology is behind it, but yeah, men tend to be a little bit less planning oriented.
They tend to be a little bit more spontaneous and women are better planners.
They, they, they just are.
I mean, we, we see this in the workplace, right?
Some of our team that are women are like, they keep, they keep the lights on and the show moving ahead.
And we love them for that.
And men, we tend to be a little bit more fly by the seat of our pants, whatever the case So people, I don't think, believe you, Charlie, when you say that these people love Trump and they're not coming out.
But it is completely true.
As soon as you start getting into the field and you actually start talking to people, you realize how many of these people there are.
There's so many.
One out of five of people that attend a Trump rally are not registered to vote.
Yeah, that's just the data.
It's just pulled.
I didn't believe it before.
And by the way, no one is, no one's there registering voters except for us.
Yeah, I mean, we're there doing it, but it's like, it should be a requirement.
The one time I've seen this done right is Pennsylvania.
And that's because it had turning point action.
It had local GOP.
It had, this is the Trump rally, by the way, in Philly.
Scott Pressler, both Maloney's guys were there.
I mean, that was the one time, like, You could not turn around without seeing a table in front of you that said, or someone throwing registration papers in your face.
That should be every Swing State rally.
Who do you blame for President Biden being in office in this condition?
James, they're doing a lot of catch up at a prior damage to RNC, as Tyler well knows.
There's a lot of catch up work.
They're doing a great job with that.
I want to play cut 118 here.
This is a brutal focus group for Kamala.
Brutal in Wisconsin.
Play cut 118.
Who do you blame for President Biden being in office in this condition?
Who deserves the blame?
His close staff. - Bye.
They work with him every day.
So I think that's what also makes me nervous about the Vice President Harris.
Talk about that a bit.
So yes, she's going to be in it.
But she also helped keep him in where he's at right now.
And if he really is as bad as what they've been saying.
I think if he steps down as president, and she steps into the presidency before the end of his term, it almost makes me question a little bit more why it didn't happen sooner.
She's worked with him.
She's been, to my understanding, with him daily, or at least a couple of days a week.
Why hasn't this been brought to attention?
If she's willing to hide that type of information, once she's in office, now what's she willing to hide for herself?
So, we're getting the other tape here, and I'm learning this, Tyler, in real time.
I talked to five previously undecided voters, and they're all going for Trump.
But you know what's amazing?
And this is why the Democrats kick our tail in midterm.
They all have different passion projects and micro-targeted issues.
One was like, I just love J.D.
Vance.
The other one was like, I can't stand Kamala.
The other one was like, you know what it was?
She said, I watched five minutes of the convention, and I loved how they talked about drill baby drill.
I was like, oh wow, that won you over?
That did it for you.
And she was like, yeah.
Independent voters are notoriously hard to pinpoint as if they all move on the same issue.
Here's the brutal clip here.
It's about a minute and a half.
It's wonderful.
This is MSNBC.
This is a panel of undecided voters.
A focus group of undecided female voters.
Right, Jack?
Undecided?
Oh, this is Trump voters?
How do you perceive Vice President Harris compared to President Biden in terms of competency and experience?
I think she's worse.
She doesn't even know what's going on at the border.
And that's what she was supposed to be doing and in charge of.
I mean, as a school teacher, if I did not do what I was supposed to be doing, you better believe my job would be in jeopardy.
Well, it isn't.
Not only was her job not in jeopardy, she was just handed a promotion.
Is there anyone that Kamala Harris could appoint as her vice president that you would find reassuring?
Would make you consider voting for her?
No.
I would never consider voting for her.
I would do RFK Jr.
way before her.
Yeah, same.
Absolutely.
And she's not the first woman to run for the presidency, Hillary Clinton.
I'm assuming no one voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, so it's not necessarily going to sway you to vote for a woman in office.
When do you think America will have a female president?
When there's a competent one.
I don't get a good feel for her.
I think she's an idiot.
Right.
Mary, why do you think that she's not that bright?
Because she hasn't done anything in the time that she's had.
We don't know anything about her as far as her three years so far in the White House.
She's not real smart.
First of all, why is the journalist 90 feet away?
What is that all about?
I mean, literally COVID protocol.
Yeah, it's MAGA COVID.
Secondly, by the way, we have a new we have a new we have a new poll that dropped just so we're clear.
And it's very now we're starting to see a data pattern.
This is the fifth or sixth poll.
Trump up three in the national polls.
Yep.
Which just so we're clear, you go.
Yeah, that's a very good poll.
That's registered voters.
Now, registered voters versus likely voters.
If you don't turn out your registered voters, then you get your tail kicked in.
OK, right, Tyler.
So but let me just say this.
I want to throw it to either Jack or Andrew here, which is to remind you, Joe Biden, in air quotes, won the popular vote in 2020 by four points.
And he only was able to hold on to the Electoral College by forty one thousand ballots.
Where it stands right now, that is a seven-point movement from where the race stood in 2020 at its conclusion, let alone when Donald Trump finished very hard.
Andrew, your thoughts on this?
The data is now, we have more clarity even now at the end of this program than at the beginning, Andrew.
Yeah, I mean, and there was that, Harry Anton basically said this on CNN, he said, you know, He pointed out that actually the polling ended up being pretty accurate in 2020 with Joe Biden winning by four points.
They basically had him up by four points in a lot of polls.
And you still only win by 42,000.
So Harry Enten was making that point saying like, listen, Democrats are going to have to do a lot better than even, you know, breaking even in the national popular vote if they're going to win the electoral college vote.
So that electoral college vote, and I think you pointed this out early on your show, Charlie, that What if they end up picking Shapiro?
It's sort of an admission by the Biden by Harris campaign that Their, their path is very narrow.
There's only so many pathways to victory there where we have multiple pathways to victory.
And we're not even considering in that math places like New Hampshire or Virginia or any two, right?
So, so all of these other, these other States might come in into play when it comes down to election month.
But I mean, right now, if we're just looking at the swing States, they basically have to Really overperform in places like Pennsylvania.
Maybe Shapiro will do that.
It looks like they've completely, if they do this, they are abandoning the Sunbelt except for Georgia.
I think they need Georgia and Pennsylvania, but Pennsylvania is from a registration standpoint, we've been outpacing them significantly.
Georgia structurally.
I still love that state for us.
I don't, I mean, maybe Tyler, you've been looking in the numbers recently.
Well, here's my shirt, Tyler.
You're going to love this.
I don't want to play 105.
narrow path.
And to be for Dems to be losing in a popular vote national poll basically means that the electoral college vote is even that much further away from them.
Here's my shirt, Tyler.
You're going to love this.
I don't want to play 105.
Make polls accurate again, because you know what that means?
That means we've neutralized their ground game.
If we are able to make the pulls accurate, that means that we fight them ballot for ballot in the field.
So I'm going to play 105, but Tyler, what does it mean if RFK is getting 12% in Arizona?
I mean, this is a huge deal.
And this is, I think, I think what the outcome is going to be if we could be Nostradamus here about the future.
I think what you're going to see is you're going to see RFK overperforming the national average in states like Arizona and Nevada, which have a huge libertarian bin.
And I think you're going to see RFK outperforming in the traditional Northeast, where the Kennedy name is the strongest.
And so any place that has a stronger libertarian type of dynamic, which is Arizona, right?
Like, you're going to have libertarians that are just like, I hate Trump, but I want to vote for a third party.
Right-leaning libertarians will go to Trump much more than left-leaning social libertarians.
Right.
But the important point is, is that the votes won't go to Biden.
Yes To the to the other side, but it's harder to chase.
Yeah, so it's it's it makes it more difficult for them to chase So there's well, there's two things one.
Is that independence?
they can't chase as easily now because they will accidentally turn out votes for RFK and even if that's one out of three votes or one out of five votes that's really bad for them and And the second point is that, again, our votes that just don't like Trump aren't going to automatically go to the Harris ticket.
Let's play Cut 105.
This is Harry Enten.
Remember, one of the laws that we have of presidential politics is that presidential elections move at a glacial pace.
And so the Harris campaign, they have a VP selection and they have a convention.
If they don't start seeing a repeated tightening of national polls and state polls, it is going to be very hard to turn this aircraft carrier around.
I'm not doing hopium right now.
I'm telling you as I see it.
Placut 105.
So I want to take a look at Trump versus Democrat margin.
Just remind folks where we were at the end of the 2020 campaign.
Joe Biden won voters under the age of 35 by 21 points.
What do we see with Kamala Harris?
Well, she's still ahead, but the margin here is significantly less than what we saw with Joe Biden back in 2020.
She's up by just nine points.
You may make the argument that was better than Biden was doing before he got out.
But compared to that Democratic baseline, where Democrats have historically in presidential elections, at least this century, been carrying that young vote by 20 or more percentage points, she is way down from that.
So if this is unique support among young voters, I would like to know what non-unique support is.
Is it even worse than this?
And this, I think, is rather interesting.
Do Democrats say they're more motivated to turn out after Biden left the race?
Well, we do see a significant portion of Democrats who say, yes, 39%.
The thing I was interested in was that disproportionately younger voters who said that they were more likely to turn out or more motivated to turn out.
And what we see here is it's 42%.
Not a big difference between 42 and 39 percent.
So this idea, again, that the vice president has unique potential to dig in and get young voters to turn out, John, it's just not there in the numbers despite all the internet memes that are going around.
Tyler, your final thoughts.
Well, yeah, I'll just say this is that, I mean, they do need to shift the youth voters.
They do need to shift the minority voters.
But the more they go that direction, they lose a boomer.
That's right.
So the direction that they were heading was that the biggest, and we talked about this here on ThoughtGrant, was like the biggest place that we have, the biggest gaping hole is with boomers.
Right.
And the interesting part about the glacial pace thing that you mentioned is like what happens when you start like pushing things around that are extraordinarily heavy is that there's just like the law of physics is that they swing back just as hard.
And you've got this situation now where it's like we were actually on a track to lose more boomers with Trump.
Well, no, we were saying that, is that with Biden, Biden would have done better with boomers, but boomers look at Kamala and they see a radical Californian.
That scares the dickens.
Yes.
And it's more important than that is they just don't associate with her.
Right.
It was just like the associative thing, which is like they were told for years that Biden was like the calm, cool, collected guy that wasn't going to screw up their Social Security and Medicare.
He gets us.
He gets us right and now they don't have that so they basically spent most of the majority of this election losing young people Minority voters and now they're gonna have breakneck speed in Fox News watchers now realizing Right now when I talk to boomers they say she reminds me of the shrill HR manager.
Yeah that got me in trouble for making an off-color joke and Or she reminds me of, like, the cringe professor that taught feminist studies when I was in college in the 1970s.
And I say, you're right.
Well, and here's where I'm thinking with boomers.
Is again, I think they've already lost.
I think the point that clip is they've already lost enough young voters where it's gonna be really tough for them to recover Especially with RFK still in the race because you still have a RFK problem for them, right?
So and RFK is not going anywhere now He's really pissed now because he he should be could be the Democratic nominee and he could play total spoiler Yeah, and so he's definitely not going anywhere now.
He's going to work extra hard to go after Democrat votes, I think, than Republican votes now, which is really problematic for them.
Whereas before, it was kind of like, oh, is he going to take more Trump votes?
Well, now I can't see a world in which he's not going after those votes.
You've already lost that.
You're now losing.
That's not going to turn the ship around.
And now Republicans basically have stitched the wound of old people disliking Trump, which every poll leading up to this showed that was the problem.
And they've gone the opposite direction.
And by the way, that's probably part of the reason why they're not going with a Sun Belt strategy ultimately, is because they are not going to be able to win the Boomers over.
Well, and remember, as the Sunbelt, as boomers go, Maricopa goes.
That's right.
If you win boomers significantly because Biden did well with boomers in 20, they didn't like Trump on covid.
It was just like a whole thing.
Nevada, Arizona, Florida is boom.
Like the Florida's are the cake is baked.
But all these places that boomers have moved to, like I would argue, I even think Texas, for example, that was like trending.
Texas is done.
I know, but trending in a good direction for them.
Trump could win Texas by 15 points.
That's right.
Now it's like, now they're going to be walking backwards strategically from their 2028 plans.
Potentially, yeah.
I mean, again, they're playing a lot of defense.
Jack, final thoughts, and then Andrew.
Look, I'm gonna go say again right now, I think this is a reset moment.
And I think it's something where a lot of Republicans are saying, okay, just attack, attack with the lowest hanging fruit on Kamala Harris.
Be smart.
Think about this in terms of demographics.
Think about this in terms of how do you turn what they're trying to make her greatest strength into a potential weakness.
So the cackling, the laughing, the haha, the oh, she's so cool.
You know what?
She doesn't care when Americans are suffering.
She doesn't care when people are dying of despair.
She doesn't care when Lake and Riley's happen.
She doesn't care because she has no empathy.
You turn that Flip it around against her.
This is how you'll be able to reach those voters.
And by the way, on the other side of that is how you show Trump cares.
And don't just say and make a joke out of it that say, I took a bullet for this country.
No seriously, he almost died.
Donald Trump could have died.
Because he loves this country and cares about it so much.
That's the story, and any way to tell that story, that emotional story better, is going to be 100% effective against anything she's trying.
I want to just kind of show you where we were in 2020 versus right now.
Look at 2024 general election.
We have CNN poll.
It shows Trump up three right now.
Latest one is up three.
That's three different polls by the way that show the same thing.
Do you know in 2020 Biden was up 8.7 points in national polls?
At this point.
Yeah, they have a lot of ground to make up.
That was 8.7 points.
And remember, Trump finishes strong.
And so this is without Trump Unleashed and no air cover.
We have not run a television ad.
Andrew, super quick final thoughts.
Yeah, I mean, I go back to the to kind of what Jack was saying, you know, and I remember, Charlie, our event in Phoenix where Joe Arpaio came up to the stage and he said that when my wife got cancer, Donald Trump called me six times.
Six times.
So when, Jack, you're talking about how much Donald Trump cares, I mean, he called Joe Arpaio six times, the man who has zero power to give him anything, and he just cared.
And how many times has he done that?
And you compare that with the fact that 92% of Kamala's, or whatever her name, Kamala, I'm honestly trying to do it right, Kamala's staff quit.
92% of her staff quit.
In her years as vice president, and this quote from one of her staffers is just powerful to me.
It's clear that you're not working with somebody who is willing to do the prep and the work, a former anonymous staffer told the Post.
With Kamala, you have to put up with a constant amount of soul-destroying criticism and also her own lack of confidence.
So you're constantly sort of propping up a bully, and it's not really clear why.
And so this is, this is my final point.
She is uncaring.
She is calculating.
She's an opportunist who threw her boss Under the bus and just stole his throne to the extent that which he was complicit in that.
We don't know to the extent to which he covered it up.
We can only imagine significantly and now she's taking her moment and I find I find that one word where her lack of confidence.
I think I think Kamala has a massive imposter syndrome that she's dealing with because she knows she never fought a tough race.
She's never been tested.
She came straight out of the machine in California that propped her up.
So much luck and serendipity.
She rode the sort of like, I'm kind of like Obama train all the way to the Senate and then got the pick to be VP because in Joe Biden's words, he values diversity, equity and inclusion.
So I just think that she is struggling under this weight of imposter syndrome.
She has no confidence.
Those cracks and those fissures in her own psychology are going to be exposed in a massive way in the coming months.
Andrew, excellent.
Tyler and Jack, I will say this in closing.
It is tempting to think that the election happens to you.
You happen to the election.
You make it happen.
Again, we've been propagandized as if the election is something that we receive.
It's something that you go and take.
It's something that you go do.
You don't just watch it.
You are involved in it as an activist.
Go to tpaction.com, chase ballots, register voters.
We have President Trump at the Believer Summit coming up Friday.
