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Sept. 4, 2023 - Human Events Daily - Jack Posobiec

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EPISODE 553: THE CHINA FILES - WORLD WAR TAIWAN

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	We are in a fifth generational conflict.
	A commentator, international social media sensation, and former Navy intelligence veteran.
	This is Human Events with your host, Jack Posobiec.
	Deliver us from evil!
	Ladies and gentlemen, welcome aboard for another special edition of Human Events Daily, The China Files, Part 5, World War II.
	Taiwan.
	And I just wanted to say thank you to everybody for the incredible reaction we've had to China Files Part 1 to 4, which really covered the birth, the growth and the takeover of China by the CCP, the rule of the CCP, how the CCP has governed and evolved over the years.
	And then finally, the backstory of Xi Jinping.
	We got so many comments, so many questions, so many great Uh, reviews on the whole thing.
	And then a lot of people just saying, you've got to go more in depth.
	We want more of these.
	We want a lot more.
	You, you, they appreciate the, you know, the history storytelling part of it, because I think a lot of places, especially when you're in school, you know, you have to memorize dates and you have to memorize names and you have to memorize so many things, but nobody just sits down and tells you the story.
	Nobody sits down and explains it to you in a narrative form.
	And that's what I try to do when I do these.
	And obviously, When we're doing the regular show, it's news of the day.
	It's, hey, this thing just happened.
	We've got information on it, or I've got a source that's telling me something, some hot lead, some hot scoop, or something has happened in the world and we're breaking it down in terms of analysis.
	But we don't always take the time to sit back and just give you all this background information and tell these stories, so many of them like Pretty much anything to do with communism is completely absent from the mainstream of pop history or school history, high school.
	You go to college, if you go for any communist, you know, put a story on communism, you know, your professors are all going to be pro-communist.
	So you're not going to get any information.
	About, say, the Spanish Civil War or the Chinese Communist Revolution, the Cultural Revolution, the Khmer Rouge, these things.
	You've got to seek them out on your own.
	So something that I'm trying to do, and I saw there were a few people that said, said, hey, you know, this is the same stuff that I that I read in a book.
	And I said, that's great.
	That's great.
	There's so many good books on this.
	But what I'm trying to do is give this to an audience, present these stories to an audience that's never heard about this stuff whatsoever before.
	Maybe we'll do some other episodes where we go more in depth and we go much deeper.
	And some people were saying they wanted me to go deeper in on the triads and the Green Gang and some of the work that Chairman Mao, the deals that he made with various entities throughout China in order to prop up the CCP in the early days.
	The opium, how the CCP profited from the opium trade until later on when the People's Republic was founded.
	Mao later took all the opium dens, shut them all down, executed the opium dealers and sent all the addicts essentially into either prison camps or rehab centers.
	Right.
	So there's so many stories.
	And again, we only had a certain amount of time for each episode.
	So that's why, look, folks, you know, we have to package it in a certain way and we have to pick our time.
	So I agree.
	There's so much more of this, but put it this way, because the reaction was so huge, so enormous, because there's clearly an interest in this and this style of storytelling for you that we're, let's just say we're doing more.
	There's definitely going to be more.
	I can't reveal exactly what it is yet, but there's going to be more.
	So Taiwan.
	This was the big question that I think everyone has, because it seems to be the biggest flashpoint coming forward.
	This was Mearsheimer's warning.
	Mearsheimer's warning is that the U.S.
	is currently involved in a hot proxy war with Russia vis-a-vis Ukraine, being fought on Ukrainian territory, or obviously some part of it is being in dispute right now.
	Some of it's Ukrainian, some of it's Russian, it's going back and forth, line of contact, etc.
	At the same time, the U.S.
	is escalating tensions and China's escalating tensions in the South China Sea and the East China Sea, particularly when it comes to Taiwan.
	And so the question is, does this force or does this trip what has been referred to as the Thucydides trap?
	And this idea that every time there is a rising power and a current power that's in decline, that those two will go into war and that they will pick.
	And for the Thucydides situation, it doesn't necessarily matter what the flashpoint is, just that the two sides will at some point go to war.
	And this is a pattern that we've seen go on again and again throughout history.
	And will the US fall into it?
	We don't know.
	I personally hope not.
	I don't want the US to go to war with China.
	I don't want there to be a war in Ukraine.
	I don't want there to be a war on the Korean peninsula.
	And I certainly don't want there to be a war in Taiwan.
	But the question before us is not, should it happen?
	The question before us is, will it happen?
	And if so, what will that look like?
	So to understand that, you have to understand what Taiwan is and what the current status quo of Taiwan is.
	Let's start there.
	And back in 1949, when we told this Back in episode one, part one of the China Files, the nationalists on mainland China, Chiang Kai-shek, they fled to Taiwan.
	They brought money, they brought artwork and cultural artifacts, they brought gold with them, everything they could from the treasury they could take with them, and they fled to the fortress island of Taiwan, but the Portuguese called it Formosa.
	The People's Republic, the People's Liberation Army, the Red Army at the time, and Chairman Mao wanted to go in and launch the invasion right then.
	And they almost did.
	However, something else was going on in 1950.
	And that was a little thing called the Korean War.
	So the nationalists have fled to Taiwan.
	They're building up the island.
	They've got all their armaments there.
	They've got everything they can.
	The Red Army is hot on their tails, is about to invade, looking to invade.
	But the Korean War kicks off.
	And then the U.S.
	gets involved immediately.
	And the Soviets do not want that land ramp directly into their eastern flank.
	They don't want that land ramp into the Soviet Union for the Americans.
	And that would obviously open them up to Manchuria, to China, etc., etc.
	So they go and pull the chain with the CCP.
	They yank Chairman Mao back by his collar and say, the Red Army needs to forget about Taiwan.
	Because we got bigger fish to fry right now, and you need to go fight the Americans in Korea.
	And China does.
	Mao does.
	In fact, Chairman Mao's oldest son, at least the only one that we know of, dies in the Korean War.
	So, if that son had lived, there may very well have been a Mao dynasty, but we'll never know.
	That being said, there are other mouths that are out there now, but none of them which are of any real note.
	And there's some that have, you know, kind of perfunctory positions within the party, but there's no real power there.
	So.
	The state of North Korea, as we all know, the 30th parallel gets in the DMZ get instituted because at that one point, MacArthur's got the Koreans, the North Koreans and the communists all the way up to the border, the Yellow River.
	And MacArthur, as famously is told, says we need to go all the way to Beijing.
	We need to start nuking Beijing and Shanghai if they get involved.
	We need to take this fight to the heart of the communists.
	Truman says no, publicly fires MacArthur after MacArthur publicly comes out against Truman, says it's a breach of the chain of command.
	We all know the story.
	But the point is that Taiwan and the nationalists and the nationalist government are sitting there the whole time.
	Fortifying the island, building it up.
	And at the time, during the Korean War, Truman sent aircraft carriers through the Taiwan Strait to make it very clear that if China got involved in Taiwan, then that it would trigger a wider war with the United States.
	And of course, the Red Army didn't have the resources to fight a two front war, not just against the Koreans, but against the United States and its allies.
	Keep in mind, They had just spent, expended magnificent resources, incredible resources fighting the nationalists and they've got their army, but they're only one year ended and there's still fighting going on in different parts of the country.
	There's warlords that they're fighting.
	There's so much going on.
	So the idea of them being able to, to maintain two conflicts in essentially multiple theaters, two front war, both with, with the United States, again, One which would require a major C component to it.
	It just wasn't in the cards.
	There was no way for them to take Korea and Taiwan at the same time.
	So the Korean War ends.
	Armistice is signed at the DMZ.
	And for years, all the way up until the 1970s, the United States continues to recognize the Republic of China, the Nationalist government of China, Which is now currently situated on Taiwan, still there today, as the legitimate government of all of China.
	So think of this, for 30, almost 30 years exactly, 29, the People's Republic of China, the Chinese Communist Party, controls all of mainland China.
	But the United States doesn't recognize them.
	From the 50s, to the 60s, to the 70s, and then it's only with Jimmy Carter's administration, So Nixon, of course, and Kissinger go over there.
	They say, look, we can break up the communist block of countries on nationalist lines and then we can start opening up to China and we can maybe break them away from the Soviets.
	Great power politics.
	This idea of if there's another great power and we get them on our side, we can use them as a bulwark against our greater foes.
	At that time, the Soviet Union.
	But they never grant, the Nixon administration never grants China full recognition.
	That only comes later in 1978 with Jimmy Carter.
	But here's the other piece.
	What is it that China demands in response for normalized relations and for taking a stance against the USSR?
	They say you must adhere to something called the one China policy.
	What's the one China policy?
	One China policy means that Taiwan is part of China.
	Now, it's an interesting.
	It's an interesting balance, because, of course, if you go to Taiwan and the Republic of China, what will they say?
	They say Taiwan's part of China and we're the legitimate government.
	If you go to Beijing, what will they say?
	Taiwan's part of China and we're the legitimate government.
	So the U.S. position has always kind of been this interesting fence striding position in the middle.
	And that's been the status quo for all this time.
	In fact, President Truman once famously said that if the United States and China should ever go to war, then Taiwan would essentially be an organic floating giant aircraft carrier right off the coast.
	However, what the People's Republic has said is that should Taiwan ever attempt independence, full independence to declare themselves not a rogue province and a formerly former government that was in charge of full independence to declare themselves not a rogue province and a formerly former
	Should Taiwan declare independence and try to start an entirely new country rather than be the Republic of China, but call themselves the Republic of Taiwan.
	That that would trigger a full on war launched.
	By the PRC.
	Launched by the Red Army.
	They have said that's a red line for them.
	And so the status quo has stayed like this since 1978.
	The communique signed.
	Every administration since then has held to this status quo.
	But now, Xi Jinping's in power.
	And Xi Jinping views Taiwan as unfinished business.
	The same way that Putin saw Ukraine as unfinished business.
	We're not going to get into all that.
	I'm just explaining the backstory.
	They see Taiwan as an integral part of China and a piece of China that had been lost to them and they want it back.
	And they view this government on Taiwan as illegitimate.
	So we've walked through the U.S.
	policy of what a lot of people call strategic ambiguity towards Taiwan.
	This idea of will the U.S.
	defend them?
	Will they not?
	Will China accept things and go along?
	And of course, we covered in multiple parts of the series, how both sides have become incredibly rich off of this.
	No, no, not you, the people, but the elites and the leaders, the Lao Baijing of China and the deplorables of the United States and the rest of the West have lost their money.
	They've lost their jobs.
	They've lost their manufacturing.
	It's all gone to China.
	Almost all of it.
	Germany is still trying to hang on, but without cheap Russian gas, we'll see how well their products do on the open market.
	Probably not so well.
	And so when it comes to the scenario, the goal has always kind of been, hey, keep things cool and we'll make a lot of money, but don't turn into one of these things because then we're not going to be able to support it.
	And of course the United States and the leaders of the United States want to keep China as the junior partner in all of this.
	They don't want The People's Republic and they don't want the CCP gaining more power and challenging the United States as the top dog.
	But of course, as we've seen over the past year and really the past decade, a large diminishment of U.S.
	power in the world.
	We've seen, and you have to say it what it is, the United States lost in Afghanistan, lost.
	The Taliban won.
	Afghanistan has kind of a track record with that.
	They call it the graveyard of empires for a reason.
	Then Ukraine kicks off.
	You see the U.S.
	Navy.
	Ships are colliding into each other, burning down on the pier.
	And a general loss of U.S.
	power and power projection in the world writ large.
	The U.S.
	dollar has become incredibly weakened by the misdeeds of the Federal Reserve.
	And because of US trade in general.
	All of these wounds were self-inflicted.
	Financial crisis, of course, also being one of them.
	We're seeing the same thing now with the new coming financial crisis, the crisis of ESG, wokeism, and the rest of it.
	So the United States has become weaker and weaker and weaker.
	Meanwhile, China is just becoming stronger.
	They've got problems of their own, and we'll talk about that in the next segment.
	From a net perspective and a relative perspective, they're becoming stronger.
	And so.
	Is it in the interest of Xi Jinping to invade Taiwan?
	That's the biggest question.
	And.
	The real answer is the only reason that he would invade Taiwan unilaterally without a direct provocation would be if there was a challenge to his leadership.
	Now, there has not been a challenge to his leadership, and a lot of people That focus on China, that focus on this whole thing, say, oh, Xi Jinping's done, the CCP's about done.
	We've seen flare-ups.
	We certainly have seen flare-ups.
	We saw that with the people of Shanghai and the people across the cities in China protesting against the lockdowns.
	But that's not the same thing as a full-on Tiananmen Square-style challenge to the CCP.
	It's just not.
	And so, the question becomes, What kind of provocation, what kind of scenario would kick things off?
	So I just said before, and we've heard Taiwanese presidents in the past refer to this.
	Chen Shui-bian was one of the first in the late 90s, early 2000s, talking about an independence vote, a declaration of independence of Taiwan as a sovereign nation that's separate from every other nation.
	So, and then applying for status at the UN, et cetera, et cetera.
	The CCP has said, that's an absolute red line.
	And I guarantee you, the elites at Davos, which is coming up later this year, are absolutely not going to say a word about Taiwan because they're totally owned by the CCP.
	And so when I was there last year, he would say it was Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine, defend democracy, defend democracy, Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine.
	I went up and down that street and you wouldn't see a single person flying a Taiwanese flag A single person going up there and saying, what about Taiwan?
	Not a single piece, which actually gives me an idea for something we could possibly do at Davos this year.
	Hmm.
	But let's say Taiwan goes for full independence and the United States mismanages the situation because of course, under this administration, the Biden administration, what else could they do?
	You're not going to see anyone pump the brakes on this.
	And the United States says, we'll back you all the way.
	What you would see from Xi Jinping, I think the most likely scenario.
	So when I was in the military, you have to come up with usually two assessments of a situation.
	One of which is the most likely scenario.
	And one of the Mitch, one of the most is the most deadly scenario.
	So the MLCOA and the M Most likely most dangerous and course of action and the most likely scenario Taiwan goes for independence or de facto independence or perhaps Taiwan joined into a regional military alliance.
	Let's say the United States tries to build a NATO of East Asia the same way that we saw the NATO of Europe.
	Push into Ukraine and that tripped the red line for Vladimir Putin if we overthrow to go overthrow the government in Kiev 2014.
	Let's say in Taiwan.
	A new military regional military is brought up.
	And suddenly this regional NATO.
	Call it whatever you want, but we're going to.
	We're just going to call it Asian NATO for this point.
	It's got Australia in.
	It's got New Zealand.
	They've got nuclear submarines.
	It's got Japan.
	It's got South Korea.
	And all of a sudden, they start saying that they're going to start arming and forming bases on Taiwan.
	Now, the US already arms Taiwan.
	But let's say this regional, this regional NATO, Asian NATO comes in.
	Because we know this is directly targeting China.
	That would be a red line.
	Naval assets from those countries permanently stationed in Taiwan, air assets, bombers, strategic bombers, jets, drones.
	China would never let it happen.
	They just wouldn't.
	And so they would call that a red line as well.
	So the most likely scenario, in my view, would be a blockade.
	China does not have an extremely powerful blue water navy.
	They can't force project around the world the way the United States does with the U.S.
	empire.
	And that's really the globalist American empire, as Darren Beatty puts it.
	What would China do?
	They would effect a blockade.
	They would use naval assets.
	They would use submarines.
	They would use every ship at their disposal.
	Merchant marine, you name it.
	And they have merchant marine militia, believe it or not, in China.
	Some of these guys, we believe, Or even special forces that are slipped into the merchant marines.
	We call them little blue men.
	And they have the ability to conduct sabotage operations.
	So they'd run a blockade.
	You would wake up one day and you would see power outages in Taiwan.
	You'd see massive cyber attacks.
	You'd see the banks go down.
	You'd see email go down.
	You'd see GPS go down all across the entire island.
	And then suddenly, the People's Liberation Army Navy, the PLAN, would announce a blockade of Taiwan in order to protect it, in order to stabilize the situation from Asian NATO, or from an independence vote.
	And by the way, I don't need to imagine this, and you don't need to imagine this, because this happened last year.
	This happened in August of 2022.
	When the People's Liberation Army Navy, the Chinese Navy, announced live fire drills all around the island of Taiwan, which coincided with Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, one of her sort of last hurrahs as Speaker of the House, they conducted a naval blockade and live fire drills all around the island.
	You don't think they were sending a message?
	Of course they were sending a message.
	And that wasn't the first time they did it.
	They did that back in the 90s as well, when Taiwan was flirting with independence and Chen Shui-bian's movement.
	And so the message is simple.
	We will come.
	We will surround your island, and we will starve you.
	We will cut you off from the rest of the world, which China has already done, to a large extent, financially and economically.
	You don't see anything made in Taiwan anymore, with the exception, by the way, the one exception of semiconductors, but not what your basic Uh, consumer level products other than that?
	No, absolutely not.
	So here's the situation.
	Can Taiwan survive a blockade?
	A prolonged blockade?
	Because that Navy, Chinese Navy, Taiwan Strait is tiny, small.
	They can cross that median line in minutes.
	They can go right across.
	And how do we respond?
	How does Asian NATO respond?
	Because they could blockade Taiwan, surround that entire island, all the people, without firing a single shot.
	And this would then send the entire world, and particularly the Biden administration, into chaos.
	Because they would have no clue whatsoever how to deal with it.
	So in the next segment, when we come back, I'll walk through what I think is the most likely response from the Biden administration to this.
	So now we've got a blockade surrounding Taiwan.
	The Chinese Navy saying that anyone who attempts to cross the blockade, whether it be activists, whether it be drones, or whether it be military, will be fired upon.
	The United Nations condemns it.
	China says, we don't care.
	The United States condemns it.
	China says, we don't care.
	Japan, the regional partners, they call on China to stand down.
	China says, we don't care.
	We want to be Top Dog again.
	And this is our own island.
	You're going to let this little rowdy bunch of separatists tell us what to do on our own island?
	We don't think so.
	You're going to put military bases on Chinese territory?
	We don't think so.
	It's not happening again.
	Because, of course, China has seen those invasions in the past.
	Obviously from Japan in World War II.
	But then also the Opium Wars going back to the 1840s.
	The British Empire cracking Imperial Japan open like an egg and then demanding that military forces and colonization take place.
	This happened not long ago in the Chinese mind.
	And to them, this is a, and by the way, this is a similar argument that the Japanese Empire made.
	They said, they said, you're imperialists.
	Whereas Japan's Imperial Japan said, No, we're kicking out the Western imperialists.
	By the same token, the Chinese Communist Party is saying, no, we're kicking out Western influence.
	We want only Asian influence allowed on this side of the Pacific.
	This is our land.
	This is our water.
	This is our island.
	And who are you to tell us how it should be run?
	And by the way, didn't you already agree to the one China policy anyway?
	So they'd have Biden over a barrel.
	Absolutely.
	But you've also got a sort of, shall I say, I shouldn't say Mexican standoff, but we're going to go ahead and say it.
	Because of course, the U.S.
	is the consumer market for the Chinese economy.
	China is the manufacturers for the U.S.
	economy.
	So you've got a dual-edged sword there.
	Which side blinks first?
	Is it the side that needs the consumption to continue the activity, or is it the side That says we'll take the hit.
	So it becomes a war of attrition in that case from the US and China's perspectives.
	Just imagine you can't get new parts for your iPhones.
	You can't get new glass.
	Stores are becoming empty.
	Walmart, Target, you're starting to not be able to see things anymore.
	Plastic containers, cups.
	We saw a little of this during COVID, by the way.
	Where do you think all that stuff is manufactured these days?
	You want to take it another step?
	How about your amoxicillin?
	How about your doxycycline?
	How about your insulin?
	How about all the prescription drugs, the antibiotics, everything that's out there?
	Now, not to go down too much of the big pharma rabbit hole, but some people would argue that it's better if the United States has less prescription drugs.
	But what about things like antibiotics and insulin that people need to stay alive?
	What about cancer medication?
	Where do you think all that stuff is made?
	Now suddenly the United States can't get that.
	And keep in mind, this is under your most likely scenario.
	This is the best case scenario in a wartime situation or a, not even a war, but a conflict that breaks out over the question of the status quo of Taiwan, the status of Taiwan.
	Now, all of a sudden, your foods are going scarce.
	Your stores are going scarce.
	Your drugs are going scarce.
	Medicines are going scarce.
	You can't get this.
	Why?
	Because our elites decided that they could save a buck by having all of this manufactured in China.
	You know what else they would do?
	You think the fentanyl problem is bad now?
	They would be ramping up the fentanyl production in China, and they would go to their cartel buddies, and they would tell them, you need to step up operations tenfold.
	They would flood as much fentanyl as they could across that southern border, and they'd start doing it out of sheer spite.
	They would do everything they can to eat away at our own country.
	Right now, they're in the slow lane.
	They're doing it, but they're doing it little bit by little bit every year, every day.
	Now, they're going to switch it over into high gear.
	They're gonna flood our cities with fentanyl.
	They're gonna come for our children.
	Snapchat, TikTok, they will be contacting your children on TikTok, not the CCP themselves.
	But where do you think the fentanyl comes from?
	Where do you think the synthetic drugs, they think they're buying ecstasy, they think they're buying crystal meth, They think they're buying Oxycodone, Oxycontin, Adderall.
	But what are they actually taking?
	What's actually in those pills?
	They don't know.
	They're going to ramp up all of that.
	While all this is happening, then the Biden administration is going to sit there.
	Xi Jinping is going to pick up that phone, maybe there's a summit, and he's going to say to Biden, Here's what you're going to agree to.
	And here are the concessions we're going to take.
	And they're going to say, they're going to renegotiate trade deals.
	They're going to renegotiate joint ventures.
	By the way, any US entity that does business in China has to do so through a joint venture.
	So let's say you're Disney.
	Let's say you're Apple.
	If you want to work in China, Elon Musk, Tesla, If you want to work in China, you have to do so through a joint venture with a local Chinese company.
	That means that whatever you're doing, right?
	This is why Foxconn is the manufacturer for Apple.
	Whatever you're doing, China's getting a cut.
	China's getting cut in on the deal.
	And you know what else they're going to do?
	They're going to ask for a renegotiation of intellectual property laws.
	They're going to ask for a renegotiation of They're going to ask for a renegotiation of all of this because they're going to say, we're sick of it and we want your industries to fail and we want you to crumble because we don't care about your industries and your elites anymore because we don't want you to be the senior partner in this relationship anymore.
	We want to be the senior partner.
	And so we're going to keep your people fat, dumb, and happy.
	And they're going to continue buying our products.
	We want to get to the point where it's not just 90% of products in the United States are made in China.
	It's going to be 100% of products sold in the United States are made in China.
	All of it.
	You can forget about sanctions.
	You can forget about any manufacturing jobs in the United States.
	You can forget about all that stuff because they are going to want all of it.
	And in exchange, here's the best part.
	In exchange, They're never even going to let Taiwan be free.
	What they're going to say is, we want Taiwan to be a similar setup that we have with Hong Kong.
	What was that called?
	One country, two systems.
	And so they will demand that Biden go to the Taiwanese government and say, We will pull out our security guarantees.
	We'll pull out our backing.
	We'll pull out everything with you, unless you agree to the CCP's demand of entering into this One Country, Two Systems Agreement.
	So the One Country, Two Systems Agreement essentially stated that Hong Kong would retain its individual distinctiveness and its unique status as a city-state, but it would cease being Two Systems Agreement essentially stated that Hong Kong would retain its individual distinctiveness and its unique status as a city-state, but it would cease being a sovereign status as a city-state, but it would cease being a sovereign nation and it would then be incorporated into the sovereignty of China, which meant that the Red Army, People's
	The Chinese Navy would patrol Hong Kong Harbor and that it would be considered Chinese territory.
	That is exactly what they would tell Taiwan to do.
	Almost sounds very similar to the demands that were made by Vladimir Putin over Ukraine at the start of the whole thing.
	Because what did Putin say?
	The demilitarization of Ukraine.
	And of course, he didn't mean a full demilitarization, because of course there would be military there, but he only wants one military there.
	The Russian military.
	He doesn't want Ukraine to have a military of its own.
	Or if it does, not one that would pose any threat whatsoever to him.
	That would be the same thing in Taiwan.
	Taiwan would have to give up its military.
	All of the ships, the submarines, the sea mines that have been given and sold to them by the United States, turn around and say, take your choice.
	Either they become ours, or you have to send them all back.
	If they send every one of them back, maybe we'll provide just compensation.
	But they would demand this.
	And the Biden administration, because again, they're looking to save face.
	They're looking to, in this scenario, they're looking to end things and then go back to the money.
	And they also know, of course, that the Chinese Communist Party has got the receipts on Biden His brother and his son and everything that his son did when he was in mainland China, while he was making those deals.
	You know, people ask me all the time, they say, what about the other stuff that's on the laptop?
	How come we haven't gotten into that?
	And I said, you understand the laptop's not the only repository on Hunter Biden.
	That's the dossier he had on himself.
	If the laptop is what Hunter Biden has on himself, imagine What the Chinese Communist Party has on this guy.
	Imagine what the CCP has on Hunter Biden.
	Imagine their tapes and their agents and their files and their recordings and they will use every bit of that as leverage on Joe Biden.
	Kind of like what happened to a certain Ukrainian prosecutor a few years ago who lost his job in exchange for a $1 billion IMF loan.
	And an investigation just magically disappeared.
	Kind of the same way as the FBI's investigation that's going on now for four years into Hunter Biden doesn't seem to be going anywhere.
	So that's the scenario where Biden sues for peace and gives the CCP whatever they want and gives them all of Taiwan.
	Imagine you wake up one day, President Biden is announcing to the country That the United States Navy is on its way to defend the new independence of the new island nation in the East China Sea, the Republic of Taiwan.
	And the Chinese Navy has stated that they're not going to allow this.
	You're essentially looking at the start of World War Three.
	There's no way to sugarcoat this.
	That a direct conflict between China and the United States is extremely possible with this flashpoint.
	Japan would get involved.
	North and South Korea would go at it.
	China would certainly, Beijing would certainly pull the leash and yank the chain on Kim Jong-un and say, if Japan gets involved, you need to start shooting those nukes off.
	You need to start getting those ballistics warmed up.
	Because instead of firing those missiles over Japan, we're going to need you to start sending them into Japan, into the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force.
	Japanese aircraft carriers, anything that they could bring to bear, they'd want North Korea to target.
	Then of course, South Korea gets involved.
	That peninsula goes up in flames.
	Day one, China knows that for force protection into the East China Sea, The United States has two key bases, one of which is in Guam, the other of which is in Okinawa.
	Okinawa is very close to Taiwan, if you look on the map.
	On day one, they would turn Okinawa into a fireball.
	Because China wouldn't necessarily just use cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, they would just fire everything they can to overwhelm all the air defense of Okinawa.
	They would target bases.
	They would target all military facilities possible.
	They would do everything they can.
	Of course, Japan would respond to that by saying, you've attacked Japanese territory.
	So now Japan's getting in.
	Philippines would get in.
	The other Southeast Asian nations would get in.
	This, of course, would trigger.
	A wider war.
	Potentially throughout the entire world.
	Because China would then go put leverage on Russia.
	And keep in mind, the United States is already, as I said before, and this is Meir Sharma's warning coming real in this scenario, the most deadly scenario, that the United States is already committed to fighting Russia in Ukraine, now opening up a second front in Taiwan.
	It makes sense.
	It makes sense for China.
	Because if there were ever going to be a time that they could defeat the United States in a protracted naval conflict, it could only be while the United States was distracted by another front and another theater.
	Kind of like what's going on right now.
	China also has another issue on their hands.
	Xi Jinping has an issue on those hands.
	And that's demographics.
	There's actually a demographic collapse coming in China.
	They're going off a cliff.
	And that cliff is called the one-child policy, which started in the late 70s and then continued throughout the 80s.
	The one-child policy stated that if you had more than one kid, they had to be aborted, they had to be given up.
	Many were just thrown in the river.
	Forced abortions were seen across the country.
	This wasn't under Chairman Mao at all, by the way.
	Chairman Mao, believe it or not, actually supported large families.
	But then the Chinese government decided their population was too big.
	Largest in the world.
	So they instituted the one-child policy.
	Forcibly.
	And so, because of their social engineering experiments, they've gotten to the point now where you, where they're losing their workers, they're losing their military age males, they're losing, I'm gonna pull up the actual statistic here, they will have four retirees.
	For every two workers by 2030.
	And Xi Jinping knows this.
	Your laborers, your consumers, your taxpayers, gone.
	We've also got another problem.
	Because under the one child policy.
	All those people born in the 80s and early 90s.
	Those generations.
	In the US we say Millennials, Gen Z. Because the Chinese people favored having a male child, a huge amount of females were aborted.
	That means in China, today, you have tens of millions of more young men than you do young women.
	And what happens with those tens of millions of young men?
	Can't find a job.
	Can't find a girlfriend.
	Can't find a wife.
	And they're upset.
	And they're angry.
	They're looking to fight.
	They're ready for a war.
	So you go into the order of battle.
	The naval order of battle for China.
	The Eastern Theater Navy.
	18 diesel-powered attack submarines.
	13 destroyers.
	23 frigates.
	24 corvettes.
	Three amphibious transport docks, 16 tank landing ships, five medium landing ships, 38 missile patrol craft.
	They've got an aircraft carrier that's ported out of Qingdao in the north.
	They've got another aircraft carrier that's ported out of the south.
	They would bring everything to bear in a Taiwan fight.
	Everything.
	Taiwan, for their part, in a full-scale invasion scenario, because if the U.S.
	Navy's coming, China knows their best bet Their best bet is to take over Taiwan, secure it, and then sue for peace afterwards without risking a larger war breaking out and an invasion of the mainland or bombing of the mainland.
	So what would they do?
	They would trigger an immediate invasion of Taiwan.
	While all this is going on in the background, Okinawa is gone.
	Korean Peninsula is up in flames.
	Guam is being attacked.
	Guam is much, much further out.
	But they want to deny the United States the ability to strike and project power into Asia.
	And of course the U.S.
	has a fleet in Yokosuka in Japan.
	That forward deployed fleet is being brought down.
	That's the home port of the 7th Fleet.
	It's the fleet where I served.
	It's also the fleet that's been having issues.
	Ships running into each other.
	Why is this?
	Because you've got those tens of millions of young males in China right now.
	Where the Chinese military is focused on masculinity training, they're focused on hyper-nationalism.
	What's the U.S.
	military and the U.S.
	Navy focused on?
	How many genders can you fit onto one ship?
	Which gender are you today?
	How woke are you today?
	Have you taken your woke-ified training, your woke diversity training for the 10th time this year?
	Do you honestly think that the United States, as it's currently situated, is ready to fight an actual prolonged conflict directly with China?
	It's ridiculous.
	And so Taiwan, for their part, once this invasion kicks off, before the US even gets there, their most likely bet would be to mine the Taiwan Strait.
	Just as many naval mines as possible, spread them out throughout the strait, to try to deny the area access to China.
	But at best, it's a delaying tactic.
	Because China's got enough minesweepers, and honestly, they can just send freight, they can send barges, they can send anything they want in to clear those waters.
	Online in the Navy, every ship can be a minesweeper once.
	It's kind of like how any ship can be a submarine once.
	Just once though.
	But it doesn't matter.
	Because at the end of the day, everyone knows who's got the numbers.
	So if the U.S.
	Navy wants to project itself, it's going to have to go long.
	It's going to have to go deep into the East China Sea, into the littoral areas.
	You're right next to the Chinese coast at that point, and they can bring everything to bear on you.
	This would be one of the most dangerous battles in United States Navy history.
	It would dwarf anything that we saw with Japan.
	Because with the Japanese Navy, that was standoff fights.
	But out in Midway, Coral Sea, places that were far from the mainland.
	This would be a naval battle, and it depends on where the Chinese Navy came.
	Because the Chinese Navy doesn't have the ability to project as far as the Japanese Navy did.
	You would see fighting up close and personal.
	And would China strike the U.S.
	mainland?
	It would if they had to.
	Would China take out the GPS satellites and wouldn't be able to use them?
	Would they destroy the U.S.
	Internet?
	Would they do everything in their power to make sure that they win?
	And then of course, would the Chinese government, would the Chinese Communist Party, facing a collapse scenario, Would they be willing to use nuclear weapons or allow North Korea to use theirs?
	This is Mearsheimer's warning.
	This is why the United States, as it's currently constituted, needs to deter this type of action from ever taking place.
	Because when you get into a conflict with another nuclear power, there are No winners.
	None.
	You cannot allow this to happen.
	You have to fix the United States Navy.
	You have to be a serious deterrent.
	But you also have to look to de-escalate wherever possible.
	Maintain the status quo and little by little work to decouple from China to restore America's Financial and manufacturing base while depriving the Chinese Communist Party of the market that they need to be able to build their One Belt One Road.
	Understand the stakes for this are bigger than the stakes of anything that we faced.
	That's why I've spent 15 years of my life focused on it.

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