Adam Sosnick, Tom Ellsworth & Vincent Oshana | PBD Podcast | Ep. 181
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PBD Podcast Episode 181. In this episode, Patrick Bet-David is joined by Tom Ellsworth, Vicent Oshana, and Adam Sosnick.
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Patrick Bet-David is the founder and CEO of Valuetainment Media. He is the author of the #1 Wall Street Journal bestseller Your Next Five Moves (Simon & Schuster) and a father of 2 boys and 2 girls. He currently resides in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida.
Why would you bet on Goliath when we got bet David?
Value payment, giving values contagious.
This world of entrepreneurs, we can't no value to hate it.
I need running, homie, look what I become.
I'm the one.
I'm one of those people.
CNN, we're going to be less of a space.
All right, so this is episode 181, Tom trying to be a comedian, folks.
Forgive us.
So it's been an interesting morning so far.
You know, we've been talking about which talent was the best at a cappella.
Vinny tried to hit an Ariana Grande.
You kind of hit a little bit, right?
From her being live with the weekend.
On the weekend last year at the VMA.
Tell us a little.
Yeah, there it is.
Oh, God.
Tom, how beautiful is that?
What a way to work.
Tom almost cried.
He almost cried.
Mariah Carey vibes.
Gang, we decided today.
Dogs barking out front.
We decided today to do a podcast for a couple of reasons because if we don't do today, we've been not doing it for a while consistently because of travel.
But today, we're just going to hit some of the stories.
Yesterday we had Andy Gustament Monte on, which was phenomenal.
We had a great time with him.
But today we're going to cover some stories.
Let me tell you what stories we're going to be talking about.
Number, here's a story about billboards in San Francisco and LA warning people against moving to Texas by invoking mass shooting.
I can't wait to talk about that story right there with you.
Tom's got a bunch of stuff to say about student loan with forgiveness with Joe Biden.
Some commentary on what former Clinton advisors had to say slamming Biden's student loan.
Bernie Sanders even wasn't impressed by it.
Dave Ramsey wasn't impressed by it.
So we'll talk about that.
We will talk about the 3.8 million renters likely to be evicted in the next two months.
That's a real number.
3.8 million people likely to be evicted.
There's a talks of a civil war right now from both sides, but a big part of it is, you know, Lincoln Project Rick Wilson warns a civil war is coming if it hasn't already arrived.
CNN saying we're trying really hard to be less of a Democratic mouthpiece.
Good for them for saying that.
Less of.
Yeah, less of.
Electric bill skyrocket crippling low-income families with no end in sight.
I saw an article that said in Norway right now, to fully charge a Tesla, to fully charge a Tesla, costs $100 to fully charge a Tesla.
Thanks for electricity, okay, to fully charge.
Honestly, I'm pissed off at Kai right now.
We all are.
About it.
In LA, it costs that to fully sell an escalate.
Yep.
Like regular gas.
That's the point.
So the point is, the point is, so if they're pushing that way, the cost isn't really going to be that big of a savings.
We'll talk about that.
British household energy bill to jump to 80% to over $4,000 a year.
We're going to have Paul Sankey, who's an expert in oil energy.
He'll jump on from UK to comment on that here in a few minutes.
California is pushing the whole gas-powered cars to be banned by 2035.
Even if a Republican governor wins the state, that's still going to be happening.
And then obviously a bunch of different stories that we can be talking about.
A Mickey Mantle card sells for $12.6 million.
And if there's any other topics you want us to talk about, put it on Super Chat.
We will possibly address it if you put it on Super Chat.
Let's get right into it.
Okay.
So Tom, student loan debt.
I'm going to read these stories and you tell me your thoughts on the student loan debt that we got going on, the forgiveness program that we have going on.
Let's see which story.
Okay, so former Clinton advisor slams Biden's student loan debt handout.
This is terrible policy.
Well, it's bad policy as well as bad politics.
For that amount of money, you could find free pre-K for every three and four-year-old for 10 years.
You can do a lot more good for poor people, communities of color, and underprivileged by doing pre-K.
You could forgive all medical debt, which unlike student debt is not freely entered into.
Former advisor to Clinton said, Paul Begla said that Paul Begala said, adding that he was a progressive.
What is my party doing with this?
They're disadvantaging.
I think they're not helping the people we're here to help, which is poor people in underprivileged communities, and they're not helping their politicians who are running.
Bagala said this.
So at the same time, Bernie Sanders, I'll give you what Bernie said about this.
Bernie said on Sunday, responded to examples of Democratic criticizing half a trillion dollar student loan debt hand that by saying the criticism is correct before arguing that the answer is not to deny help to people who cannot deal with these horrendous student debt.
Maybe we should have the courage to take on the drug companies and not pay 10 times more for a particular drug than they do in other countries.
So the answer is not to do what Republicans want to do.
Oh, it's unfair to this person because we're helping that person.
The answer is maybe to create a government which works for all people and not just the wealthy campaign contributors.
That's what Bernie Sanders had to say.
Tom, what are your thoughts on this student debt forgiveness?
Well, I'll tell you, I don't normally line up the way I line up right now with Paul Bagala, but I am 100% with him.
There are upstream problems in this country and there are downstream problems.
The student debt that is in the hands of these students that are being really hammered by the processors.
Remember, it's the loan processors.
Once you get the student loan debt, you get a letter from somebody that's a hi, we are the company that's going to be processing your debt.
Send your payments here.
And the interest rates and everything that go with that, the students get hammered by that.
That's downstream.
If you want to go back upstream, Paul Bogala is doing a great job of making a point is saying, listen, want to help education, want to get people more educated?
We could take all this and we could cover pre-K and three or four-year-olds.
So we could start education at an earlier year and give kids that are normally disadvantaged a jumpstart, maybe to be more competitive later.
I love that line.
But the other side of it that I'm looking at is Bernie is right.
What they're doing here is forgiving the people who knowingly went into the debt.
Now, I happen to think what we should probably be doing is working on a relief with the processors.
What if we took one tenth of that half a trillion dollars and bought down the interest rate with the processors so that people have a fighting chance to pay off the debt?
It says, hey, you owe $80,000 to the processor.
Currently, it's sitting at 9.5%.
Wham, it's 4%.
Now it's 4%.
You know as well as I do, Adam, just the math of money.
That would be a huge help.
On the interest rate side of things.
That's exactly right.
So rather than forgiving the debt, why don't we get into it and say, how do we make it more manageable for these people to pay off?
And something else I'd love to talk about PBD on another time.
If the oil companies raise prices and they get drug into Congress for price gouging hearings, guess what?
The entire collegiate system needs to be dragged in front of Congress for price gouging hearings.
Yeah, so my angle is a different angle.
By the way, and I appreciate that.
Tyler, can you show the video I just sent you?
I don't know if you have it or not.
So this is a father going up to Elizabeth Warren.
Did we comment on this yet or not?
I have not heard of it.
Okay, so Elizabeth Warren's talking to a bunch of folks, and his father, on the day when they announced this, walks up to Elizabeth Warren and says this, and she has nothing to say.
Like, Elizabeth Warren's helper cannot wait for this man to stop talking.
You'll see this.
If you can make it bigger so everybody can see it, go ahead and play it.
And let's hear the audience.
Watch this.
And then she says something.
Fast forward a little bit like three seconds.
He's waiting for me.
Okay, right, they're watch this.
Yep, this guy in the black jacket.
Listen.
My daughter's getting out of school.
I've saved all my money.
She doesn't have any school.
I love what I'm doing.
Am I going to get my money back?
Of course not.
So you're going to pay for people who didn't save any money.
And those of us that did the right thing get screwed.
No, it's not everybody.
Of course we did.
My buddy had fun, bought a car, went on vacations.
I saved my money.
He made more than I did.
But I worked a double shift, worked extra.
My daughter works in his kid.
So you're laughing.
Yeah, that's exactly what you're doing.
We did the right thing and we get screwed.
I appreciate that.
I love those moments.
So, you know, so you can't blame people like that who are sitting there saying, I did all the right thing, but you're going this direction.
And then what I will say, kind of where Tom was briefly commenting on it, is the following thing.
Here's what we have to ask ourselves.
Okay.
So in the process, in this context of student loan, what parties are involved?
Let's go through it.
Number one is the loaner.
The loaner is who?
Sally Mae.
Sally Mae.
Number two is who?
Is the person that's receiving the debt, which is who?
The individual.
Customer student.
The customer student, possibly which parent, right?
Okay.
So we got the loaner, which is Sally Mae and Navient.
Okay.
Then we have the person that's getting the loan, which is the student, hence the parent.
Then we have government and then we have college.
Okay.
So you have four parties involved here.
Now let's take a look at this.
When they do this, who doesn't pay a single price for this?
By the way, we have one other person involved in this as well.
It's called taxpayers.
Okay.
So we got taxpayers, which is us.
We got the student that got the loan.
We got the Sally Mae, who's like, shit, here you go.
And then we have the government, and then we have the university.
Who paid the least price when this decision was made?
Exactly.
The university business raises the price.
Exactly.
And you know what's crazy about that?
This is the part that's crazy about that when you're talking about universities.
Universities themselves are sitting there.
They keep the money.
And 80%, they said the other day for every one conservative professor in America, there's 13 liberal professors in America.
So they have a monopoly on philosophies they're teaching to our students that are being sent there.
So there is already a monopoly of teaching a philosophy that you have a control over.
You're not getting a six professors on one side, six on another side, or six, six, and one independent, and you're kind of learning from everybody.
And then on top of that part that we're talking about with schooling, they have the audacity to bash capitalists who pay taxes, who go through what they go through, and you're not paying any taxes.
And at the same time, you're not even being punished.
The punishment's going on students.
No one's judging you for your quality of education where salaries haven't increased for the last 20 years.
Maybe you ought to be judged a little bit.
If education is so fantastic, how are kids coming out with the same average salary as they got 20 years ago?
You want to blame corporations?
How about we blame your method of education?
How come we can't hold them accountable?
How come nobody can get at them and say, hey, no, no, no, no, you can't talk about this because I went to such and such school and I'm a booster.
God forbid we say anything about these universities.
So that part is not being accountable.
So then go to the next one and let's find out who pays the biggest price.
So the person that pays the least price and this party is who?
University.
University.
Who pays the biggest price?
The tax.
The customer.
The customer.
Which is the student.
The parents.
And their parents.
Who's the second that pays the biggest price?
Taxpayer.
It's us.
It's us.
Okay.
Because we're the backstop when you forgive it.
You got it.
So there's two left, government and Sally May, which let's just say still least.
They're there.
So the person that pays the biggest price is the student.
Second is us, the taxpayer.
Least is colleges.
Then it's Sally Mae and the government.
What are we talking about?
And it's not to feel.
What are we talking about here?
It's not to feel bad about, but there is a party in this, the loan processors, who are now going to be processing less loans, so they're going to make less money.
So as a business, the loan processors are going to have their business hit.
Look, it's hard to feel bad for those particular folks.
The biggest question is the follow-up question.
Okay.
What can you and I go and get financing from the bank?
For like house cars.
Okay, so we can get a house.
The bank will bank finance a house.
House, a car.
Will they finance a car?
Of course.
Will they finance a wedding?
No, no.
Why not?
Because there's no risk.
It's going to fail and it's risky.
Way too much money.
So they will not finance a wedding.
Okay, let's keep going with this.
Will they finance me potentially starting a business?
Maybe at best.
You're right.
Maybe at best.
Well, but to the extent you'll sign a personal guarantee against your assets if you even have them.
Motorcycle.
Motorcycle.
I got a motorcycle.
How about an art piece of art, if I'm getting?
Will they finance a piece of art?
I don't think so.
The bigger banks, Goldman Morgan, they will do it.
I don't know if the Bank of America guy, hey, BFA Kennedy, can you finance trying to buy the Salmon Monday or whatever piece of finance?
But it's usually half value.
Salvatore Monday.
I'll finance it, but it's usually like half value.
Yeah.
Now, here's the last one.
You ready?
How many banks finance me to go get a four-year college?
Zero.
Why not?
It's weird.
Why?
The Fed, the Bank of the Federal City.
So let me get this straight.
Banks won't finance weddings at the college.
Too risky.
Way too risky.
All right.
Maybe there is a lesson there because what capitalism and free enterprise will teach us is whatever people are not willing to pay for, there's a reason for it.
Okay.
There's a reason for it.
What are your thoughts with this story here?
Well, look, there's sort of mixed, I have mixed kind of feelings here.
I'm not a fan of this.
Believe me, the guy that went up to Elizabeth Warren here who said, I saved that money, you're never going to hear me disagree with that guy.
100%.
Okay, that is my entire slogan of my entire life is save that money.
So respect to that guy.
Double shift.
Exactly.
So, but there is a difference between the Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders wing of the progressive left and the Biden side of things because they all campaigned on different promises.
So everyone wants to talk about promises made, promises kept.
Biden campaigned on canceling $10,000 of student loan debt.
Whether you agree with that or disagree with that, that's a different topic.
That's what he campaigned on.
Elizabeth Warren and Bernie wanted to cancel all debt.
And everyone was like, yeah, that's a little freaking aggressive, bro.
So there's 20 million Americans who woke up this week and said, I owe exactly $0.
Now, if you're that person, the choice is yours now, buddy.
You've been given a life raft.
You somehow woke up.
You had $20,000 of student loan debt, depending on your Pell Grant status, right, Tom, the Pell Grant?
That's if you're lower income.
The whole mechanism.
And I think 40 Americans have received some sort of loan forgiveness.
So I'm not a fan of this.
I had D1 on my show, The Sawscast, last week.
This guy got famous viral for doing a song called I Paid Sally Maybach, where it was a play on words between rather than driving a Maybach, because he's a rapper, he paid Sally Maybach.
That's actually pretty dope.
And it was ridiculous.
It went viral and the guy hit the scene.
So I'm not a fan of this, but this is what Biden did promise.
My next point, and then I'll turn it back over to you guys.
The fact that Paul Pag, like how my whole save that money, political wokeness, whatever you want it, like awakening, it actually happened at an insurance event that you've ever been to AALU?
I know what it is.
Okay, but we met at NALBA years ago.
And ALU and NALBA actually merged to area called Finseca now, right?
And this is 2010, 2012-ish.
And they had a debate.
You talk about this is your idea of what you want school to look like.
They had a debate.
And who was the debate with?
Paul Pagala, Clinton guy, and none other than Tucker Carlson, Fox guy.
So I'm sitting there listening.
I have no political ideology at this point.
I'm just watching Tucker and Paul Pagala go at it.
And I'm like, I like this shit.
This is good.
Ideologies exchanged left, right, up, down.
I'm like, okay, he's got a point.
He's got a point.
He's got a point.
But circling back, making my point here.
This is something that Tucker and Paul Pagala would both agree on.
They do not like this idea.
Yeah, all this time.
I'm pissed off, Pat, because I mean, we both joined the military about the same age.
Now I'm pissed off because I didn't go to college.
I didn't spend no, now I'm just like, now I have to pay for other people's kids to fucking go to college, and it drives me bananas.
And I love that you said a good, good say, monopoly.
They have a monopoly on philosophy.
It's what they want to teach, and that's it.
Yes.
By the way, I'm right now.
Like, you know, this whole thing about, okay, so a few things.
Teachers who are being forced to teach what they don't believe in, they're leaving and finding other jobs.
Parents who are having kids go to school being forced to learn something that they shouldn't learn.
They're deciding to listen, honey, you better get a second job.
You better drive Uber at night.
Our kids are going to private school.
So that's number two.
So public's taking.
Or they're voting on the Arizona voucher program, which is so hot.
Perfect.
That's another route they're taking.
So we have those two.
Three, you got individuals who are now being asked to become teachers who are not fully qualified to become teachers.
They went to school.
You got the philosophies being forced down their throat.
This is great.
Let me explain to why this is fantastic for me because this is going to force people to say, okay, this is what you want to do.
No problem.
Here's a route I'm going to be taking.
If you think you're going to be forcing more people to have the philosophy of handouts, you're going to piss more and more and more people off.
Yesterday, who's our Biden's press secretary?
What's her name?
Corrine Jean-Pierre.
Corrine Jean-Pierre is being asked about, you know, so you're okay with kids.
You're okay with immigrants crossing, illegal immigrants crossing the border without being vaccinated.
You're not even checking them, but you're worried about, you know, Novak, you know, coming to a U.S. open to play tennis.
He says, you know, did you hear her answer?
I heard it.
Did you hear what her answer was?
Her answer was, well, we are not allowed to talk about private medical institutions of people.
That are coming.
I'm like, wait, what?
How did you spin that one?
I was so impressed about it.
That's good.
She did.
That's their job, though.
Just spin job.
But that's, listen, spin is on both sides, but that spin was like, dude, you're a goat of spinning to do something like that.
So, you know, but people are starting to sit around this.
If you live by the border, you're going to be like, look, man, these people are coming left and right.
And I don't feel safe right now.
Some people that are coming over.
Some people are going to sit here.
They're Democrats.
They voted for this.
They're like, what the hell is this?
I busted my ass.
I'm not a Democrat because I want high taxes.
I'm a Democrat because I agree with, let's just say, a person is a pro-choice, or I'm a Democrat because I'm, you know, social safety nets.
But I'm not okay with this, bro.
What are you doing?
I'm a working Democrat.
So they're creating enemies to the point where a guy who got Americans to accept marijuana through a podcast, there was a Netflix done where he was the main guy on this Netflix show, Joe Rogan, got people to say maybe wheat isn't that bad.
He tells Aaron Rodgers, possibly a top five best quarterback of all time, the solution is to vote Republican.
What the hell are we talking about?
And Elon Musk says that.
Here's the point.
When sometimes you're winning, you have blind spots.
You think you can really manipulate everybody?
San Francisco voters, you know what they said yesterday?
San Francisco, people that live in San Francisco say, I'm not paying taxes until you clean up the ship.
Good.
People in San Francisco are saying, I am not paying taxes until you clean up this homelessness problem.
These are Democrats that voted for those policies.
And the needles.
It's slow.
What you said about it's Novak, right?
Novak Djokovic.
If he felt N-O-V-A-F.
Yeah, Novak.
He can't fly into the country to play a tennis game, but the border, why doesn't he find a way to get to the Mexican border, cross through there, that would be so funny?
He's coming around to this poom at the bottom.
He's like, oh, that's the tallest Mexican I've ever seen.
Like, he's huge.
Well, all he has to do is take a boat or just get an airdrop and just walk through the border.
I mean, he doesn't have to be vetting.
That would be so funny.
And he whips out his phone in San Diego, gets an Uber, boom.
And he's there like this.
And they're like, how'd you get here?
And he's playing with the business.
It is quite offensive that they're still demanding this.
Is it New York State?
Is it the U.S. Open specifically?
Who's demanding that?
Is this the U.S. government?
NFL still, they're not messing around.
He's obviously anybody coming over here to play any sport or anything.
Oh, he cannot play.
He's top two in the world.
I think he's number one right now.
So he's one of the three goats, the three goats of tennis.
Who's the Open sponsored by?
The visor.
That's right.
Oh, weird.
Go figure, right?
I didn't even know that.
Isn't that weird?
Isn't that weird?
You know, there's another level of hypocrisy that's here with the student loans.
And if you think about it, in the United States government, you have Medicare, right?
How many people have a person in their life on Medicare?
Your dad, my mom, your dad, right?
My mom, yeah.
Your mom, excuse me.
And they can tell you, hey, I went in and I was going to have a chest x-ray.
The doctor said $260.
And he gets the thing back from, nope, the rate for an x-ray is $181.
Ever see that?
So the doctor bill is augmented, but our parents don't pay the difference.
The doctor accepts the $181.
It's the same thing for dental.
The only exception on federal programs is Sally Mae in education.
They don't adjust the price.
And all of what Sally Mae would have to do is say, I'm sorry, the maximum per credit hour we will pay is this.
Because that's how they do it in health insurance.
That's how they do it in dental care.
And that's how they do it in the private sector.
And that's how they do it in the public sector with Medicare.
They determine that within a certain bound is the price.
Sally Mae is the only place in higher education is the only one to get a get out of jail free card.
Yeah, we're going to raise it 20% this year.
Oh, okay.
Well, then we'll just put that on the loan here.
It's the only place it happens.
Yeah, the, you know, they keep accusing Biden of playing politics.
You're just playing politics.
You're just, well, that's his job.
That's exactly politics.
He's kind of a politician.
So he is pandering to his base.
Obviously, he wants to sure up the Gen Z vote, let's say, or the millennial vote.
And this is a ploy or a tactic to get them to say, you know what?
Biden's actually doing something for me.
So do I agree with paying off student loans?
No.
But do I understand the philosophy of why he's doing it?
I get it.
Because it is making inflation.
Tom, it's making inflation higher, isn't it?
Because we're dumping more money, aren't we?
Sure, there's a part of the student loans that you could argue were never going to be paid back.
You know, an art history major who's never going to be making more than 30 grand a year or something.
And they're probably never going to be able to pay back part of their student loan.
Gotcha.
Which is another discussion, right?
Are you underwriting STEM?
Are you underwriting liberal arts?
Are you what percentage of college degrees are just completely useless, in your opinion?
I don't know if we have enough time for that.
I would say there's a lot of it.
But I look at it this way.
PBD, what if we made a simple value attainment public service announcement commercial?
Banker sits across from student.
Yeah, I'd like $80,000, 20 a year.
It's a state college, but I'm getting a degree in art history.
Well, great.
I'm looking here at the jobs and what an art history maker will make.
And I can't underwrite this.
Why?
Because according to this, it would take you 40 years to pay it back if you still kept the student loan payment higher than your rent or your house payment eventually.
Oh, and put this awareness out there.
Do you see what I mean?
It would be an underwriting.
And it's not the banker being bad.
The bankers simply say, I can't underwrite that.
I can't underwrite this transaction.
But what if you go, excuse me, though?
Joe Biden's president now, he promised that he's going to forgive.
So does that sway my, like, can I get it?
He said 20 grand is going to be gone.
Will you give me the loan?
Well, if 20 years from now, the U.S. president forgives half of it, and that's sort of a guarantee to the bank.
Then the bank could build that in and underwrite it.
But Tom, you actually bring up a great point here.
I know you were kind of being a realist, but also a little bit sarcastic.
I don't know if people got Tom's humor.
He was kind of imagining.
But you do have a good point here.
And the point that I think you were making is what's the ROI on your investment in yourself.
And that's what somebody who is 18 has to figure out.
And that's most 18-year-olds could not tell you what ROI is.
But when you go to college, you're investing in yourself in your future income, right?
You're getting a degree that will hopefully put you in a better position to make more money in your lifetime.
And when you're 18 years old, it's a very difficult decision to make.
All right, what do you want to do the rest of your life?
You're like, bro, I'm just trying to fucking get laid in front of this whole thing.
Well, that's a difficult situation to figure out.
Scam?
No, it's a four-year social experience.
That's it there.
Kids are not going to get a better degree and solidify their future.
You asked 10 kids.
I guarantee you seven out of 10 kids say, I'm going for the experience.
I'm going to meet friends.
I'm going to hook up.
Well, that's a good side of college.
If a person's going for the social experience, I'm willing to bet you're going to party 10 times harder in the military than you would if you wanted to go to the 1,000.
I'm willing to bet that uniform is going to get you 100 times more than that.
Where the uniform take it off and go to the mall if you have to look.
You go to the changing room and gap and it's either ASU or FSU or San Diego State.
San Diego State.
No.
But what you're saying, you're right.
That just sent up.
Man, I did things all wrong to the Buffalo Bills.
What kind of a precedent does this set?
So we're teaching these kids that you can take out 80 grand, 100 grand, $120,000 in debt, and we're going to forgive it.
No, $10,000 to $20,000.
So let's get the number.
They're just forgiving $100,000.
Hang on.
This is the number.
So just get the numbers right.
This is just the beginning.
I would bet that they're going to keep pushing to forgive more and more and more of it.
Okay.
But what's the next thing?
Elizabeth Warren, man.
By the way, you can't be naive to think this is not going to continue.
Like, you know, people are about to get another $1,600 check, I think times two, whatever the number is going to be.
Again, this is five years ago.
We would have been like, what are you doing?
Where are they doing that, though?
What do you mean?
I think California is doing it.
I think several states are doing it.
I think Ron DeSantis approved that in Florida for seniors.
First of all, I don't support that.
Me neither.
I'm not one that's sitting there saying, do that.
I've never been a part of this UBI concept that's becoming a norm everywhere.
I'm not going to be able to do that.
You're going to have a conversation with Andrew Yang.
I'm not a fan of that.
The only time, if you're going to shut down restaurants, that is my way of making money.
I'm not in business because of you.
So if you tell me I can't go to work, dude, you better pay my bills.
That's a different story.
That's a different story.
But for you to just send out money, so going back to Tyler, I want you to finish your thought, going back to Tyler.
They're not going to just do 10, 20,000.
Wait till two years from now.
They're going to say this shit worked.
Do it again and again and again.
But then what do they go to next?
Housing?
They claim housing is a human right.
So they're going to forgive your housing?
Are they going to give the for loan, forgive the loan you take out on a house?
And this, okay, this is completely unconstitutional.
Nancy Pelosi is on camera saying Joe Biden does not have the power to do this.
The Congress controls the purse.
Okay.
So you think he's going to stop at colleges?
Of course not.
As approved by the Senate, by the way.
Right.
So I watched this video with a guy.
I think his name was Peter Bett David, maybe.
Oh, Patrick Bet David.
I know that.
A video on colleges and stuff.
It was almost Sasha Bet David, but go ahead.
Was it really?
For every dollar guaranteed, I believe I had to stay in 2022.
It's every dollar guaranteed in student loans, the price goes up by 60 cents.
So what are they going to do after this?
They're going to keep raising the price, Katry has a question too, because I'm not that bright in this field.
Who are they?
How far back are these loans getting to forget?
Like, who's how far does it go back?
How many people?
How many people are they giving these loans to?
What's your current loan status?
Okay, everybody that owns up has up, like, meaning starting next year, you're not being forgiven.
But everybody will prioritize.
Oh, wow, that's a lot of people.
Current people.
You know, the total that it came out to be?
All this money?
$500 billion?
$300 billion.
$300 billion.
Which used to be a large number, but now every single bill and anything that passes a trillion is what a trillion.
$300 billion is a lot of money.
A lot of money.
I agree.
$300 billion.
But it used to be a lot of money.
Not used to it.
The nuclear-powered printing press that we have over at the Department of Treasury now.
Yeah, it's pretty pathetic what's going on with this.
Okay, so let's continue to the next story.
Were you trying to finish up with something there, Tyler?
Oh, no, this is just a stat.
$10,000 in federal student debt per borrower and $20,000 for Pell Grants, less than $125,000.
So I imagine anybody who has outstanding student debt will be given $10,000, forgiven, excuse me, forgiven $10,000.
Did that answer a question for you?
Yeah, so if you have to take your call your people, accountants.
That's the number right there.
Okay, billboards in San Francisco and Los Angeles warn against moving to Texas by invoking mass shooting, by invoking mass shooting.
I don't even know if this is legal to do that.
Like, can you really do something like this as a campaign?
But let's read this.
Okay, so this is a New York Post story.
If you can put up the picture so people can see it, mysterious new billboards are warning California residents not to move to Texas as record numbers of residents flee the soft on-crime golden state for better quality of life in red states.
The Texas miracle died in Uvalde.
Don't move to Texas.
That's actually the billboard by the way.
Just look at that right there.
The Texas miracle died in Uvalde.
Don't move to Texas.
The billboard reads: alongside a hooded figure and a crossed-out don't mess with Texas slogan.
The Texas Miracle refers to former Governor Rick Perry's description of the state's regulatory model, which helped it weather the Great Recession.
Don't miss with Texas.
A favorite motto in the lone star state is rooted in the 1980s anti-littering campaign.
When you see something like this, Tom, what do you think about?
I think that if you and I put a billboard up going the other way, we would be picketed.
We would be canceled.
We would be attacked.
Can you imagine if we went the other way?
Point one.
Point two.
This is boogeyman politics.
You have nothing good to say about yourself.
So just point and say, ew.
And that's all they're doing.
They're trying to get you to stay in something bad by making something else look better.
Yeah, exactly.
Not saying, hey, here's what we're going to do for Californians.
This is what we're doing for business.
This is what we're doing for education.
This is going to do for Aeros.
This is what we're doing for highways.
Nope.
Adam, do you have thoughts on this?
Yeah, of course.
Yeah, of course.
I mean, obviously, Uvalde is the hot topic right now, but mass shootings are not, unfortunately, anything new in this country.
But, you know, politically, you might have to have a short memory to not find the irony here because not too long ago in 2015, there was a San Mernadino shooting, a mass killing.
Mass shooting where I think a dozen people died.
Yeah, the whole thing of life.
When you play politics like this, just be careful what comes out on the other side.
Now, I'm not sure if you saw what Gavin Newsom has been saying, his political ads.
Have you seen any of these lately?
So I went down the rabbit hole and I, did you see Ron DeSantis' Air Force ad?
Top Gov. Okay, TopGov.
Okay.
A little, little hokey to me, a little cringy.
And I was like, all right, cool.
Yeah, he put his kid in there.
I get it.
All right.
And then I saw Gavin Newsome's ad.
And I just like threw up in my mouth.
Not a California guy.
I don't give two shits about Gavin Newsome, but I just know like what's a decent ad, what's not.
I gave like the Ron DeSantis ad like a C-min.
And then I saw the Gavin Newsome ad, and I think it was on July 4th.
And I was like, how do people not feel the fakeness of this guy?
I'm going to read you what he basically had to say.
And you just let me know what he says, it's Independence Day.
And I mean, when I talk about as like as like just phony and fake, hi, it's Independence Day.
So let's talk about what's going on here in America.
Freedom is under attack in your state, right?
Republican leaders, they're banning books.
They're making it harder to vote, restricting speech in your classrooms, even criminalizing women and doctors.
I urge all of you living in Florida.
And I was like, hey, I'm living in Florida.
What you got going on here, buddy?
I want you to join the fight and join us in California where we still believe in freedom.
I'm thinking, how out of touch is this freaking guy?
And how does he keep getting elected?
And his voice, but you have to do the Batman.
He's a big fucking Batman.
It's just, you've seen, what's it, American Psycho with Christian Bale?
That is Gavin Newsome to me.
That is.
And here's a guy who's never had a real job.
Here's a guy that's never had to work a single day in his life in a free market in this enterprise side to see how tough it is and making decisions for them and annoying a bunch of different people.
But I will tell you what I think about this ad.
Here's what I think about this ad.
I love it.
I love it.
Let me tell you why.
Do you remember about six podcasts ago when I said if I was the governor of Florida, I would say the following.
If you want great entitlement programs, move to California.
If you want to have your kids have the ability to get the medicine to have sex change, you know, whatever transgender, if you want that, move to the following states, California.
If you want to move to California, I love it.
You know why I love it?
There's a part of me that's using humor and sarcasm to almost make your point.
It's not even using humor.
It's straight up.
Facts.
So for them to do this, I love it.
Because if a person like me who's sitting there and that's my state, I'm going to say, what the hell is this guy talking about?
I don't relate to you.
I got to go find a new state to take my family where I feel safe.
And quite frankly, I don't feel safe.
Yesterday, I got a text from Jededai.
She was in New York.
I'm sure she had a great time.
She didn't recognize anything different than normal.
And she says, within nine hours while she was in New York, okay, she saw two crimes right in front of her.
Okay.
She encountered a man walking around naked, creepy man, walking around naked.
And that's why Benny and I go to New York.
And then he says, she says, I want to know where Adam went when he visited.
And did you guys have him blindfolded?
So maybe.
Jed, if you see something, say something.
Maybe next time you guys got to go to New York together.
That's what's got to happen.
I feel like if you're looking for something, you're going to find it.
I walked miles around New York.
I freaking love New York.
But if you're like, if you're looking to find something weird in New York, believe me, you'll find it.
Well, did you hear what the New York governor said about Republicans?
Kathy Hochle.
What did she say?
Did you hear what she said?
Republicans aren't welcome here.
Get on a bus and go down to Florida.
Republicans aren't welcome here.
Get on a bus and go to Florida.
Bye.
And they, by the way, and they criticize us for living in an echo chamber.
Apparently, the right has this giant echo chamber that they can't get out of.
Apparently, she doesn't have a spreadsheet because that's going to increase the deficit in her.
Listen, talk all the smack you want about Gavin Newsome.
Don't get it twisted.
This guy is a frontrunner for the Democrats.
I don't disagree.
He would be running for office and he could very well win.
Did you see him in the interview when he's like, I'm telling you, I'm not running.
I don't know what other way to tell you.
I am a governor.
I love this state.
Then the guy says, Then why are you talking about all these national issues?
Well, because that's important.
I love this country.
This is my country.
Yeah, but you sound like you're running.
I'm not running.
Can you say right now on camera, you're not going to be running?
I'm not going to be running for, I'm telling you, I'm not.
It was a very, the interviewer did a fantastic job pushing him on it to the point where he was getting pissed.
So by the end of it, if you watched it, you would have said he's not running.
I posted on the Instagram post, this means he's running because he's obviously do you think Gavin Newsom will end up running?
I'm running.
70%.
Oh, I'm way higher than that.
I was going to say 80 pet because the last time I was on here, you showed that he was with the shirt, white shirt, tie, walking in the White House lawn while Biden was.
And the only reason I said 70% is because when I was in California, somebody shared with me some things about him that is spreading.
That is why he doesn't want to run because he doesn't want that to come out.
Oh, great.
Now, how much credibility that has, I don't know anything.
The person that said it has credibility, but the person that told him, I don't know that person.
So it's like Adam telling me his best friend said this, but I don't know who his best friend said.
So without him, without him running, let's say Gavin Newsom's out.
Biden says he's going to run.
Who do you guys think is going to be?
Who would be their frontrunner if Newsom, because I think Newsom is the presidential look that they would go for.
Yeah, according to favorability ratings, it's Bernie.
Bernie.
Unless Hillary gets involved.
Just because the Democratic field is wide open right now.
Yeah.
Wide open.
I'll go back to the same point I made 10 podcasts ago.
The DNC is shadowing all of these stories that are coming out on Biden.
And you have the soft negative story in the New York Times and Vanity Fair, all these on Biden.
Is it time?
You know, and it's like the, it's like, is it time to say goodbye to good old Joe?
Is that it?
You see all those soft articles every week.
There's a new one.
Yeah, there's the articles that aren't even that soft.
They're just like, time to go, Joe.
Bye-bye, Grandpa.
CNN did that.
MSNBC did that.
So as soon as the DNC behind closed doors clicks the stopwatch, it starts.
That's where the money is.
The money to run a national campaign is with the DNC coffers.
That is the Soros money.
That's the big stacks.
You have to raise campaign money, but the big gunpowder is with the DNC.
So the DNC has not yet said we're going to primary this president.
But when they do, it is a wide field.
But Bernie, Gavin, and they're all going to have the same thing.
Well, we got together as a political party, and it's too important.
And this is too important.
So I am running because it's too important.
And that's what they'll do.
Once they have a solution for the Biden step-aside, and they're going to do it elegantly.
But until that time, he is the pin cushion that all of this controversy attracts.
And so let him take all the heat on this.
Why put a frontrunner out there and let them get beat up a little bit right now?
You'd have to do it.
You wait till after midterms.
If I was a DNC, this is exactly the way I'd be playing it.
If I was Bernie, though, right now, I'd be like, you guys screwed me over how many times I'm not doing this shit again.
I don't see Bernie running.
Just because the DNC is done with Bernie doesn't mean the people are done with Bernie.
Yeah, true.
The people still want Bernie.
I don't know.
But he talks his upper lip.
You know, that's Bernie Santos, right?
He talks like this, and this lip doesn't move.
That's actually fantastic.
That's actually very right.
As long as this is numbed, like you went to the dentist, that's like you got numbed up.
That's good.
Can you do a Trump?
That really.
He's just congested all the time.
Can we play that or no?
I don't know if we can or not.
Jamie Fox killed him.
Jamie Foxx and Shane Gillis.
Shane Gillis has the best.
But whose podcast is that?
Before you played, whose podcast is that?
That's somebody's podcast.
I'm complimenting now.
Don't play.
What do you think about Death Row?
Snoop DOWG.
Great guy.
Jamie Fox.
Let's talk about the economy, Tom.
Let's talk about the economy.
Different take on the U.S. economy.
Maybe it isn't really shrinking.
A Wall Street Journal.
Economic output can be measured two different ways, gross domestic product or gross domestic income.
For every dollar an individual spends to buy some good or service, a restaurant meal, a car, a doctor's visit, another individual earns a dollar of income to make and deliver that good or service.
GDP captures the spending side of these transactions.
GDI is the income side.
Some economists look for a clearer picture by averaging GDP and GDI.
The average measure of output barely moved at all, rising at a 0.2% annual rate adjusted for inflation over the first six months of the year.
This is more consistent with a stalling economy than one in recession.
What are your thoughts on that, Tom?
Well, okay, my car was stalling and it comes to a stop, right, versus recession.
It's sort of like them saying, right?
It's sort of like they're saying, it's not horrible.
It's only terrible.
Yeah.
You know, you're being too hard on us.
It's not horrible.
It's merely terrible.
It's not a category five hurricane.
It's only category three.
Meanwhile, I almost got hit by a cow flying by, right?
So I think this is spin.
This is pure spin.
So some economists look for a clearer picture by averaging.
So this is nothing more than the White House saying, hey, we don't like two quarters.
The two quarter rule is outdated.
That's a measurement we don't like.
We don't want to call it a recession because we don't want to measure it.
And that's probably an outdated measure.
Remember that two weeks ago?
And so they're trying to find every spin they can because Bill Clinton was right.
It's the economy stupid.
James Carville.
Well, I think it was James Carville that said that.
Tom, come on.
Come on, Tom.
You know your people now, Tom.
He wrote the script, but Bill delivered it beautifully.
That's right.
And it was correct.
And as we go into the midterms, it's the economy stupid.
And what's going on here is mainstream media is complicit in trying to find every way to sort of spin and to say that a category five hurricane is not as bad as a category three.
Yeah, but what is, Tom, what do you think about the fact that the journal wrote this?
Like that, that kind of surprised me.
It seemed a little out of step for the journal.
I could see this from CNBC or Washington Post or what have you, but it does seem a little out of step that the journal would publish this.
Actually, a great point by Tyler.
Why do you say out of step, though?
Because I think I find the journalist.
Real quick, do you find them to be credible or not credible?
The Wall Street Journal.
And that's my point is that they seem to cut through the nonsense and the spin and argue the facts.
I don't think they're particularly one-sided.
I think if anything, maybe they're center-right.
I think they're owned by.
No, they are definitely center-right.
I think they're owned by Murdoch's group, if I'm not mistaken, his media group.
But typically, they cut through the nonsense and the spin.
And this seems a little out of step and just offset.
You're ultimately saying that you don't agree with Tom and you'd like to have a debate with him now on the facts, right?
No, I think what he's saying is, why is Wall Street Journal saying the market is not as bad where they're supposed to be?
Their position ought to be more of we are in recession, rather, no, we're not really in a recession.
So I think that's what Tyler's saying.
It's a great question.
Kramer, I think it was yesterday or the day before, they said this trend is showing that the market's going to come back up by the end of the year.
It's going to be a big uptick on the market by the end.
I don't know if you saw that or not, what Kramer said yesterday about the market.
The reality right now is no one really knows what's going to happen.
No one really knows what's going to happen.
There's way too many charts that you're looking at that are going one side or the other side.
But you have to look at a couple things.
One of the ones is the next story that's coming up right now, which I'm reading to you.
3.8 million renters will likely be evicted in the next two months.
That's a lot of people, Tyler.
3.2 million, right?
As pandemic eviction moratoriums expire and rent payment relief programs and across the U.S., a rental crisis is beginning to crest.
About 8.5 million people are behind on rent as of end of August.
That's a lot of people to be behind on rent.
According to Census Bureau data, of those renters, around 3.8 million say they are somewhat or very likely to be evicted over the next two months.
Meanwhile, rent continues to tick up and topped at $2,000 a month in June for the first time on record, on record.
Before the pandemic, rents have increased by almost 25% and 15%.
In just the past year, according to Zillow, evictions are spiking in major cities across the country as well.
In Tampa, Florida, evictions were 52% above average in August, according to the eviction lab at Princeton University.
In Houston, they were 90% above average.
And in Minneapolis, St. Paul, they were 94% above average.
So there's different worlds people live in.
The world Wall Street Journal maybe more lives in, their audience are earners.
Their audience are people that are making money.
Business owners.
I would love to see the average reader of a Wall Street Journal.
Like many people may read LA Times, New York Times, New York Post, USA Today, all that stuff.
But the person that reads, like I've given Wall Street Journal to a couple of our guys, and I say, look, my suggestion is for you to read Wall Street Journal.
And they'll read it and they're like, what the hell are they talking about?
I don't understand this.
But that's why you ought to be a sports section.
You ought to read it to see what's going on with this.
So they are talking to their audience that's in this world.
And those guys are probably not going to be affected as much.
What do you think the average income is passed for somebody that's a Wall Street reader?
I would say the average income earner reading Wall Street Journal is 200 grand.
I was going to say 150 to 200 grand.
You know, you think it's that high?
I think it's 150 to 200.
Wow, that is the 1% or the top 5%.
I think it's by the way, you know, to make six figures is 20%.
Okay.
So top 10% is around 150, 200.
I think it's top 10%.
That's about the number.
So I think that's their readership and they're speaking to their audience.
But this 3.8 million evictions, this 94% in St. Paul or 90% in Houston or the numbers like this, American people are feeling it.
Just go to the streets and ask them, how do you feel about what's going on with your finances?
And they'll tell you.
This is Main Street.
To your point, Wall Street Journal puts together something, says, if you take these two statistics and you put them together like this, look at this.
Perhaps it looks like this.
Okay, great.
Meanwhile, on Main Street, guess what?
The party's over, and this goes back two years ago.
The deeper story behind this, Pat, this goes back two years ago when, remember when the federal government prevented evictions?
CDC moratorium and states prevented evictions?
Everybody's saying, wait, does the CDC even have the authority to prevent me from evicting somebody here in Atlanta?
Apparently, they did.
So this goes back.
This goes back two years ago.
I'll give you a crazy story here.
I'll give you a crazy story here.
A person who made little less than a million dollars last year, made good money last year.
We get an email, and the email is she would like to be the director of HR for Valetamin.
And I'm like, wait, what?
Yes.
How?
Why?
I know where you live.
You live in a beautiful place in one of these high-rises.
I know what car you picked me up when we were going and doing the loan paperwork.
You told me how you did the last three, four, five years.
Director of HR is not a salary that's going to pay you anything.
You know, it's one tenth of what you made last year is what you're going to get paid for a salary like that.
Why are you applying?
The industry is so dry right now.
It's not even funny.
Wow.
Okay.
LOs right now in America are not getting hit 5%, 10%, or 20%.
They're destroyed.
Tyler, when I say destroyed, I'm talking 90% dry.
You know what 90% is?
Let me give you a paint a picture for you here what this means.
Imagine you run a McDonald's.
Every day to your McDonald's, 500 people come in.
I'm just giving you a number.
What would happen to that McDonald's if they went from 500 customers coming in to take 90%, only 50 people coming in?
So what happens to that Quiznos?
What happens to that Jeffy Luke?
What happens to that movie theater?
What happens to that restaurant?
90% of LO's income is gone.
Where is that felt?
A card that sold for $1.75 million, Kobe Bryant card, last year, black label rookie card.
You know what it just sold for on auction last week?
$850.
In one year, it went down 50%.
Who was buying collectible cards?
Crypto guys?
Mortgage guys?
Real estate guys.
You have to know that.
That is felt.
Okay.
Period.
There is no Wall Street Journal can write an article like that and say the fact that it's not really a recession.
It's more like a stagnation or it's more like a flat, whatever.
No problem.
We haven't experienced foreclosure yet.
It ain't going to happen for another six months.
That was my next question.
What do you think happens to foreclosures after these 3.8 million renters get evicted?
So the 3.8 million renters get evicted.
They can't pay the landlord who owns the house.
The landlord who owns the house has no money coming in.
How is he going to afford that second home that he's renting out?
Do you see foreclosures spike?
Dude, a house that we looked, we just looked at a place.
Do you remember the place we looked at?
Yes.
So we went in the balcony.
I looked, the view was incredible.
The view was incredible.
Are you guys moving into each other?
What are you guys doing?
What about me and you?
We did have a moment.
Okay, go.
So anyways, we're at this place.
After the balcony, back to the balance.
What would you say about this building?
What would you say about this building?
The most elite building in all of Miami.
Okay, and the place we looked at, can you tell, give them a visual tour of what this place looked like?
Oh, that's number one.
It's, I mean, can I say how much the apartment is?
This is a house or a building?
This is the penthouse.
It's the penthouse of a 54th floor.
Your elevator comes up to the floor.
I'm thinking about buying this place.
The entire place is 10,000 square feet.
Swimming pool on the 56th floor.
I mean, it's just that kind of a place.
We're going to put parties, entertain all.
So I want to buy this place.
And I said, I want to see this place.
I text him.
I got the realtor.
The next day, we go look at this place.
So literally, that's how it happened.
Yeah, boom, boom.
So we'll go look at this place.
And the realtor says, well, they had it on the market for $33 million just last year.
But it's on a deal right now for $26.9 million.
Yeah, I was going to say it was listed at $26 million.
It's a building where all the who's who's in Miami live in this building.
Like you say the names, they live in this building.
And I'm saying names.
Won't say it.
They live in this building.
So I look at the realtor.
What do I tell the realtor at the end?
I'm going to make an offer and it might offend you.
$57 million.
She says, Don't offend me.
I said, I'm going to make an offensive offer.
10.
No, no, but I said, I'm going to make an offer and it may offend you.
But here's the thing.
This thing's not going to sell for the number that they want.
But I have cash.
I'll cut you check.
But I'm going to make an offer that's going to offend you.
You know, you're going to sell this for $30 million in the next five years.
Exactly.
Five years.
I get to benefit for being prepared for the rest of the day.
Taking the reason.
And you take a hit because you sat on it trying to sell it for a high price.
So those are the situations where you see the top earner all of a sudden having to go from trying to sell it for $32 million last year.
He's probably going to end up selling it for less than half of last year.
Okay.
So these things that you read about, it's great for papers.
It's great to get the stockbroker or the hedge fund manager to talk to his clients and say, did you see what the Wall Street Journal said today?
They said it's not as bad as you.
Okay, let's put another $5 million into the market today.
But in reality, the street, the real people that are doing what they're doing, it's being felt.
Can I say something to that point?
Because I actually did a man on the street of how expensive is it to live and rent in New York City.
I did that, and I've also done it in Miami.
Now, if Tyler ever gets around to posting it, maybe you guys will see it.
But the point is, like in Miami, people feel rent has skyrocketed 40% in the last 24 months.
40%.
Okay.
So if you were paying two grand, what is that now?
$3,200?
What's the number on that right there?
Yeah.
So people, like the P, like, I completely agree with what you're saying about the Wall Street Journal.
The top 10, 20% of Americans are reading that, maybe 10%.
The rest of Americans are just running around being like, how the hell am I going to afford this rent increase?
But the flip side of it is if you've saved up and if you've been saving that money, you might be looking forward to a dip in the housing market.
You want to trip out of a house.
So my situation, because I've been here for like three months at this point, I had to leave the sub-leasing place that I'm at.
So I had to get an apartment really, really quick.
And they're renting like this.
It's an apartment complex by the beach, all there by the sea.
She goes, you have to be out of here by November 1st because that's when the snowburn season.
She goes, because your $2,000, $2,100 rent is going to go up to $3,000.
And she's like, they're all going to, they can't get.
No, they literally kick everybody out and everybody's coming to the bank.
That's not intelligible here in South Florida, though.
That is very common.
Yeah, so Pat, November 1st.
Yeah, well, they're saying November for me.
So what would you say to somebody that's been waiting?
Yeah, TikTok.
That's waiting for, remember, I talked about this last time for everything for the market to crash.
And we're waiting for that moment because I'm going to have to obviously lease again.
But you would say, what, six months to a year would be somewhere, especially as a veteran VA loan, I'd be able to get a loan.
And you're saying like when is a good time to buy for me for somebody like me, Pat that that has the loan and could I would wait six to twelve months.
Keep being patient.
I would spot the top, baby.
I would wait six to 12 months because I think, look, just think about this guy that sold this Mickey Manual car for $12.6 million.
New record, just so you know, new record.
You know how much he would have gotten if he sold it a year ago?
No joke.
15 million.
No, he would have gotten 20 million bucks.
A year ago, he would have gotten 20 million bucks.
I'm not even kidding with you.
He got 12.6 million.
He would have gotten 20 million bucks.
Okay.
Why did he sell now?
Why didn't he wait to sell a year from now?
Because a year from now, he gets $9.8 million.
Yeah, it's not.
Yeah, because it's not.
And by the way, still $12.6 million for a baseball card.
Okay?
And whoever bought it, good for them.
They got the fourth best card in the world is what they got, right?
But he sold now.
He's sitting there saying, I should have sold it a year ago.
Now, watch this.
I sold my Wayne Gretzky card and I got $1.29 million.
It was a world record.
You know when I sold that card?
I sold it.
Two years ago.
Two years.
You could have waited another six to 12 months.
You would have had an animated.
Right card.
Yes.
Seven months later, sold for 3.75 million.
Exactly.
No, no, no.
How much will that card sell for now?
But that card today will sell for $2 million.
Exactly.
Okay, so the point is, the point is like trying to time everything.
I mean, I've been a victim of it on both sides.
You're trying to get lucky, not trying to get lucky.
But I'm going to say 6 to 12 months may be a better time.
But this is not the time.
Do me a big favor.
If I'm in the office, just walk by and slap me behind the head and go, now.
Just let me know.
It's not just rents, right?
Like, obviously, we're going to have Paul Sankey on later, so I don't want to get too far into this, but political insider, 20 million Americans have fallen behind on their utility bills.
Meanwhile, we're sending billions and billions of dollars back to Ukraine.
We're paying people off.
We're passing $360 million to fight climate change.
We're paying off student loans.
Bro, there's an article in here that you guys have that saying that the military is underarmed now.
We don't have that many bullets because we've sent so many to freaking Ukraine.
Not like we're going to get into some changes.
Let's clone to that story because that is a true story.
Isn't that insane that we're running out of time?
U.S. military running low on ammo after arming Ukraine.
Pentagon officials are concerned that the U.S. ammunition stocks donated to Ukraine have severely depleted U.S. stocks, weakening U.S. readiness in the event of conflict.
The Wall Street Journal reported Monday the Biden administration has drawn much of the $13 billion in weapon systems and accompanying ammunition the U.S. has provided to Ukraine from existing arsenals.
According to the Wall Street Journal, while the Department of Defense has declined to disclose the number of ammunition rounds in storage at the beginning of 2022, before the war in Ukraine began, it has taken few steps to replenish depleting stocks, sparking worries that the U.S. may not have the ammunition it needs for its own protection.
The level of 155 millimeter combat rounds filed fired by howitzer weapon system in U.S. stockpiles has become uncomfortably low.
A U.S. Pentagon official told Wall Street Journal the U.S. has sent 806,000 rounds of the 100-pound explosive to Ukraine as of August 24th.
It's not at the level we would like to go into combat, the defense official told Wall Street Journal supplied howitzer have extended use for Ukraine forces.
Okay, so there you have it.
That was the story that you were telling me.
You know, I would say, I'd say, why don't we go to Afghanistan and get what we left behind?
But I mean, we'd have to borrow it back from Al-Qaeda because now they're Taliban.
We didn't get the Taliban.
Whatever.
Hey, potatoes, tomatoes.
Whatever.
Potatoes, tomatoes.
By the way, for people that don't know your background, when you were in the air force, you were working at a nuclear.
Why don't you tell everybody what you were doing?
I was stationed at Mountain Storm Air Force Base, Montana, nuclear missile base.
I was a flight security controller.
Whenever I was on shift, I was in charge of 10 missiles that had up to five warheads on each missile.
So I was the guy that would authenticate the guys going, the missileers, the launchers, authenticate them to go downstairs.
They're the ones that get the codes.
They're the ones that could launch.
We had 200 missiles at my base that from what I heard from one of these guys, we could have blown up the world like 20, 30 times over.
And I'm like, why do we have so much?
It's just, it's insane.
But I saw Pat because sometimes I work security where they'd open up the rail and mind you, 18-year-old airmen down there working on a nuke and you look down and you see it and it was just insane.
18-year-old 18-year-old kid just like this.
Hey, give me a sandwich.
Oh my God.
But it was scary.
And then they just told me, because I had to have secret clearance.
But and he was like, listen, we have a couple of these bases.
That's nothing.
He goes, 80% of our arsenal is just in the water, just swimming around in all these subs.
So if shit ever pops, I mean, that's why these rounds, it ain't that important because we got other stuff that we could use.
Yeah, if you want to sleep easy tonight, know that Vinnie O'Shaughnessy hand on the nuclear button at any given moment.
I couldn't go near the button, but I was making sure that they could.
You know what I mean?
I want to know who you bribed to get the clearance.
No, no, oh, you want to trip out?
You want to trip out?
So I'm on leave.
I go home to see my mom and my dad and everybody.
And my fifth grade math teacher, Mr. Bonaparte, because you know, when you get the clearance, they're asking people.
He sees me in the mall.
He's like, hey, O'Shaughnessy's a huge, huge, big buff guy.
He goes, dude, you never, what are you doing in the military?
I was like, what do you mean?
He's like, somebody from the government called me and said, and I quote, he seemed like the type of kid that would grow up to do something terrorist shit to the country.
And he was like, no, he was, you know, giving people wedgies and climbing up trees and shit, but no, he wouldn't like blow people up.
They're like, all right, thank you.
Click.
And that fifth grade teacher.
My fifth grade math teacher said that somebody called them and asked him if I turned into be a maniac.
I mean, I am a maniac, but that would never hurt the country.
So thank you for your service, buddy.
I wish I was recruited by the guy that was here, the CIA agent.
I'd be a great CIA.
Pustomente.
Come on.
I don't think you could blend in well enough.
What are you?
Nuts, I'm a comedian.
I'm out there.
I work here.
He said the key is to not be noticed.
You are very known.
Come on.
Come on.
The person here that could is Rob.
Oh, yeah, for sure.
Rob could be.
Yeah.
If there's anything that you should know about Rob Garjulo, not noticeable.
Not at all.
Is he here?
By the way, but here's a good news.
Here's a good news.
Even though we are depleting in all this weapon, good news, we have 87,000 OIRS agents, which is fantastic.
They'll save us.
Yes.
Which is fantastic.
And they know how to use a gun.
You saw them.
You saw how they worked.
That video was sold for you.
That is a great callback.
We have comedy.
So that's what I'm saying about this entire situation.
It's all going to work.
So we'll put them right on the front line.
If the average American really knew what we've got.
Yeah.
They'd blow their mind.
Yeah.
Lasers.
So let's skip the.
By the way, the real pit bull of the world military is the American Navy.
And most people don't know it.
And they think, well, wait a minute.
You're going to get the ship out there, get hit by a missile and everything.
You have no idea, the umbrella of protection.
So those shit.
Oh, it's nuts.
And you have no idea about the nuclear subs and what they're doing down underneath.
But NORAD.
Yeah.
NORAD is scary.
The stuff that's under South Dakota and Montana specifically.
Yep.
And remember Ellsworth Air Force Base?
Ellsworth.
Where all the B-52s were.
And then Tom Dashall tried to close it.
And then the voters closed his career.
And then he was done.
Exactly.
This Cethune one.
Yeah, because there's Minot Air Force Base.
There's one in Wisconsin.
Dude, we got nuclear bases.
Well, not just that.
I think the American people can take some solace in the fact that the United States government, as much as it's bloated and inefficient and those kinds of things, like you see, you know, it costs $94 billion for NASA to produce a rocket, et cetera, et cetera.
The U.S. military produced and built and designed a sixth-generation airplane complete with AI, like in under a year, brand new airplane, brand new airflame, all new electronics, all new AI, basically flies itself all in under a year.
Like we, we, if we want to do something, we can do it.
We still have the best engineers in the world.
Of course.
We still have the best factories in the world.
Like, we still can do these things.
But the VA, forget it.
I went to the VA, and it was the worst experience of my life because I tore my leg.
Let me read you guys a Washington Post story that some, I think your parents and my parents may like.
Missouri, Missouri School District revives paddling to discipline students.
Missouri school district.
I like how you design.
My mom right now is like, yeah.
There must be a lot of Middle Easterns in this school district in Southwest Missouri is bringing back a measure it last resorted to over two decades ago to address disciplinary moments, a problem, spanking students.
Classes started Monday for 1,900 students in Cassville school district about an hour west of Branson and some 15 miles from the Arkansas border during open house.
Families were notified that the school board had adopted a policy in June allowing use of physical force as a method of correcting student behavior.
Parents were handed forms to specify what this is Washington Post story.
This is a corporal punishment child, formerly known as corporal punishment.
The disciplinary measure usually involves striking students on the buttocks with a wooden paddle.
A teacher or principal must send a report to the superintendent explaining the reasoning behind the punishment.
I'll bet you anything, those kids are going to get better grades.
They're not going to skip school and their future, like do a percentage of how good those kids are going to be in college.
And those kids are going to be amazing, bro.
Because that's what's like to me, society has gone down the tube.
I'm actually, by the way, if you're watching this, if you're watching, do poll.
Did you poll already?
Okay, I want to see what the look at this.
Look at the cartoon.
If you're like, this is a good idea, give a thumbs up.
If you say this is a terrible idea, give a thumbs down.
I'm actually curious.
Okay, so as a parent, what do you think about this?
Giving the green light a little spanky spank.
What do you think?
You know what?
I'm cool with it.
I love within certain standards.
I'm cool with it.
You're cool with it because no one's going to spank your daughters.
Okay, because they're good kids.
I'm concerned because of...
Tom, you're okay with...
Let's just give a hypothetical.
Bailey acts up in class one day and the teacher hits her.
Bailey is 16.
I think you need to dive into this and see that it's second grade or under.
Okay, so when they were kids, let's not went if when Brooke was seven years old, 10 years old, you'd be okay with the teacher hitting them?
No, This is this is like five, six-year-old.
Have you read the go to it?
Let's see what age they're doing.
But the point is, would you be okay with it if they were younger?
Within standards, yeah.
You'd be okay with the teacher hitting your kids.
Wow.
The teacher is not hitting the kid.
They find a different one.
They're invoking a spanking.
Dude, I'm telling you, spanking is a good idea.
What's the difference?
So what's eating?
Spanking is a spank on your butt, dude.
That's what's wrong with society is because nobody gets spanked anymore.
I don't know.
I talk to you.
Listen, I'm old enough to remember.
I remember I was in, I think, second grade at the time.
I remember teachers would pull your ears and bring you up to the front of the classroom by your earlobe.
I'm like, what the fuck is happening right now?
You're not my mom.
And teachers would do that.
That's unapparently.
I heard that.
We had in fifth grade, they had a board of education on a board, like a paddle.
And you know why we stayed in line?
Because we didn't want to get hit.
I'm dead serious.
I did crazy shit, but I stayed in line because I knew that they hit me.
Pat, that they'd hit me.
And then they call my mom.
And they're like, I've got trouble.
They'd call my mom.
I'd walk home.
She'd be in the balcony.
And she had that Middle Eastern look.
But PBD, this is what?
Dylan's agenda.
Shout out to you.
Somebody just did a super chat.
20 bucks.
Now your user's name is Big Daddy Brown9.
Big Daddy Brown 9 gave 20 bucks.
Incredible for this 20 bucks.
And he says, the only person who gets to paddle me is Adam.
Nice.
Shout out.
Done for 20 bucks.
That's 20 billion.
That's a big deal right there.
No, but like, listen, for us, it was a ruler between your fingers and they squeeze it.
Wow.
For us, it was ruler between your fingers and they squeeze it.
Oh, guys, and then it was take your shoes off and socks off and lift one of your feet up.
They would hold it and they would hit it with a ruler on the bottom of the.
This is in Iran?
This is in Iran.
This is a whole different.
Let's go to America here for a second.
Well, hold on.
I'm surprised they didn't like it.
They'd bet you in the sand and they'd have lizards.
But that's what it was.
And I'm actually not joking with you.
That's what it was in Iran.
And look how you turned out, Sister.
Thank you.
I'm actually shocked it wasn't way worse.
A ruler between.
When I grew up, I had friends who went to Catholic school, and they used to talk about the nuns with the forearms and a tattoo of an anchor.
Yeah.
You know, like Popeye.
It's like, man, Sister Mary, watch out.
Yeah, she's crazy.
She's like, Sister Mary, getcha.
They talked about it.
You know, it's like I was failing penmanship, of course.
Plus, my hand left the way.
We just had our friend the priest on recently.
So, I mean, these people are, they go without getting their rocks off.
So, this is like, you know, S and M for them.
These sisters and white fathers.
Don't go there.
You think I'm going there?
They went there.
The church went there, buddy.
The church is.
Don't defend the church, guys.
The church is.
What do you mean?
They went there.
I can't comment on the church now.
Who's there?
What are you?
Big tech Tom?
You're restricting my freedom of the world.
Sweet Alex Petino just said while growing up in Mexico during the 90s, my teachers used to hit us with big wooden rulers, not only being pulled by ear also, but by the heroine growing beside your ear or fist close hit on the head.
Wow.
And I bet you he has a good job, but he's a good person.
He's a good person.
He's a good person and pays his taxes.
You know, every grandpa right now that tells a story of the wooden paddle with the holes in it, the tape wrapped around the handle is going, you little bastard.
I'm not going to see.
They're complaining about the generation, how bad the youth are.
They're going, you know, you're going to see now.
Are you assuming you're fruiting around the closet trying to find it?
There it is.
If a kid gets hit in school, they'll turn out to be a better kid.
I think, and this is my opinion, again, the generation that I was in, and I think up to one or two after mine, we got disciplined.
We didn't get it.
I hate when people say, I never got beaten.
I got hit and I heard those words, wait until your father comes home.
That shit instilled fear.
And we knew, stay in a certain line.
Yeah, I went a little bit to the right.
I went a little bit left.
But knowing that there's a consequence for your action, that's why everything's so fucked up right now.
Sorry for my French.
Because now, like when you, back in the day, when your parent was like, don't touch this, and you kind of went close, like, you know not to do it.
Now, kids are like, what are you going to do?
Call the fucking cop.
I own you because you can't even touch that.
Now they send you to the principal and they suspend you for three days.
And the kids going, awesome.
Yeah.
I don't have to go to school for three days.
Exactly that.
So when you knew, Pat, like, when your dad was going to hit you, you didn't do it.
I mean, you skirted around it.
There's no discipline now.
There's no, you can't even talk to them because their feelings are protected more than anything.
You know, there was a part of this that used to be in boot camp, in the military, that they used to do.
They got away with it because it was abuse.
You know, there was this also in the military a lot.
They had to do this.
And gradually they went away saying this isn't healthy.
You know, I don't know.
I don't know if there's many ways to discipline your kids, many ways to discipline people, many ways to punish them, many ways.
So then the argument then becomes, if you're okay with this, are you also okay with the death penalty?
Like, how do you feel about the death penalty?
I'm okay with it in certain instances.
For example, give me certain instances.
Insider trading?
Nancy Pelosi.
Nancy Pelosi and her husband.
Like, I told you, Nicholas Cruz.
So for instance, any of these mass murder kids, like the Uvalde guy, Barkland, like off with his fucking head.
Okay, and potentially his family.
I remember we had that talk though.
So we're going back.
I went there.
No, Pat, you know what I think?
I think if you've killed an innocent person kid or any of the time, this is my opinion.
If you've killed somebody, and I love these videos, I think it should be implemented.
If you've murdered one, two, I don't care how many, they put you like in that court while you're handcuffed, and the family gets to have their way with you while you're handcuffed for five minutes.
If you live, go to jail.
If you die, you die.
I would fucking pay-per-view that.
I'm totally okay with these.
You killed my brother.
You killed my mother.
We're going to beat your ass in court.
And if you die, that's it.
And we pay-per-view it.
I'm actually okay with that.
You're turning into a business model, which is interesting.
Because you and Tom, that's his blue ocean strategy.
Marie Devon.
Tom.
I'm okay with capital punishment.
You are.
Yep.
And I feel that the multi-level appeal in the U.S. appellate courts and the governor's stay, you know, is very effective.
When you execute an individual in most U.S. states, I think the number is 20, that there's been 20, not just a motion in court, but there's been like 20 different items of appeal.
And it's part of our system, the are you sure?
And then ultimately, if the governor agrees, remember, the governor's got the last thing.
Does he give him a stay of execution?
If the governor doesn't, then we've reached the point and we're done with it.
So I'm okay with it.
And I think the system works.
Now, people are going to say that before DNA evidence, innocent men were executed.
And we have now found that absolutely be correct.
I'm talking about today, with all that we have.
I'm okay with the death penalty in the United States and the appellate system and the governor's control.
I'm okay with it.
By the way, let me read a couple comments here.
Step-by-step DVD.
In California, he gave 20 bucks.
In California, instead of a paddle, they use a finger, is what he said.
Where's that finger going?
Alex Petino said, here's an example of misbehaved children who had no discipline.
Just look at all the writers.
2020 Summer of Love.
Loot, okay?
KPZ, Kinder Grant flushed a stock down the toilet as a prank, got the belt from the principal.
30 years later, I still believe he was right.
Interesting.
Nice.
Well, you know what everybody's saying, right?
Is that kids are going to get paddled because they don't want to transition.
Oh, really?
That's what everybody in the chat is saying.
So funny.
They're going to get paddled because they don't want to.
I don't want to be a girl.
Shut up.
Today's audience got a sense of humor.
So sense of humor.
Okay, so Megan Merkel, did you hear about Megan Merkel's comments?
She just figures out a way to stay relevant, which listen, respect to her as a marketer.
But Megan Merkel hits at British media.
They call my children the N-word.
Okay.
Megan Merkel says she hated having to share family photos with the British media outlets whose readers called her children the N-word when she was an active member of the royal family.
The Duchess of Sussex was expected to give pictures of her three-year-old son, Archie, to the royal Rhoda, the press pool that covers Queen Elizabeth II and her line of succession.
Why would I give the very people that are calling my children the N-word a photo of my child before I can share it with the people that love my child?
The suits alum, who is a biracial ass, the bullying was almost unsurvivable.
Merkel told Oprah Winfrey in her bombshell CBS interview, revealing that she experienced suicidal thoughts.
I mean, is there proof, Pat?
When I read stuff like that, show me the proof that readers called the child an N-word.
I mean, dude, don't get me wrong.
There's hate and there's ignorant people out there.
But like you said, everything that I ever read about her is something about race or something about like, bro, you just, you're right.
Like, you're just not relevant.
Nobody cares.
Nobody cares.
You know what this is?
And not just some anonymous person that threw it up on the Daily Star chat.
Exactly.
Exactly.
You had drunk people and idiots and just disgusting individuals that would do that.
But where was a mainstream propagation?
Exactly.
I agree.
I'm with you, Benny.
I agree, brother.
This is like Lizzo at the VMAs accepting her award, right?
For the millions of people claiming she's oppressed.
Yeah, she won.
You're number one.
You won the best girl, and then you're, and it's not good enough.
It's not good enough.
Did you see Mariah Carey calling Megan Merkel a diva?
And then she was asked, I think it's both a compliment and a criticism.
Carrie told the Duchess of 41 during the Tuesday, August 30th episode of her podcast where she's also diva.
But look, to me, if there's a leader's bulletin of the most annoying people in the world, she's on that list.
It's just simple.
If there's a leader's bulletin for top 100 most annoying people in the world, she's in the top 100 list.
Some would put her in the top 10.
I'm just being frank with you.
Why is she annoying to you?
Because when a person is so constantly desperate to get attention and be relevant in this manner for doing what?
Like, what did you do to get the attention that you're getting?
Okay.
It's constant.
It's constant complaining.
It's constant victimhood.
It's constant, oh, poor me, poor you.
You are treated royally.
You went overnight.
You are royal.
Nobody knew who you were the night before.
Then all of a sudden, you are who you are and you're acting like you're above the average person.
You're very annoying.
Simple as that.
It's a very annoying human being.
I've got maybe a different take on this because, number one, let's just, if anyone is using the N-word like disgusting, horrible, no, I don't give a shit.
I don't care if it's Megan Merkel, Liz, I don't care, disgusting.
Like, no, I don't accept that whatsoever.
Now, she, to me, is part of who was the girl that was married to Johnny Depp?
Who's what's Amber Herbert?
She's part of that community.
Okay, but okay, so even more so, you know who I put this on?
Not on her.
I put this on Prince Harry.
I don't disagree.
Okay.
So this is someone who's, you need to like talk about getting red pill, red pill community, Johnny Depp, or even Will Smith.
This is someone where Prince Harry should have said, listen, this is my family.
This is my lineage.
This is my literal kingdom.
I'm bringing you into my world, baby girl.
Here's what you can expect, and you need to act accordingly.
If not, I'll go literally get a million other women who will come in and gladly marry a prince.
He made her a princess.
We've all seen her come into America.
Okay.
Shout out to Eddie Murphy.
But this is on Prince Harry.
He should have kind of been more manly and said, listen, baby, you might deal with some negativity.
You might deal with some drama.
Act accordingly.
Okay.
You're going to be a freaking princess.
A princess.
How many other women are going to say, sure, whatever you want me to do, buddy?
So on one end, I do understand that she's annoying, what have you, but I do understand like the negativity where this kind of stems from.
But this is on Prince Harry to me.
I agree.
I agree.
You know, be easy, princess.
No, no, you're right.
You're right on the situation.
All I'm saying is if there's a leader's bulletin, she's on that leadership.
The media call her daughter the N-word the same way Jesse Smollett was attacked in Chicago by two white supremacists yelling this is MAGA country.
You know what it is?
It works.
It does.
It works.
It's such an easy card to use.
I've been called a lot of words.
How many times have I been called a terrorist as a joke?
I don't know, 20 times.
Can I tell you what my reaction was when the person was joking with me on that?
I can't.
Do I come out here and say, when I was in the military, my drill sergeant one time joked and said this about me.
And let me tell you, it really affected me.
I had some thoughts.
No.
No, no.
That's what was, you know, but that to use it like that, where I feel sorry for, oh my gosh, that must have been a very painful phase of your life.
Okay, it is what it is.
By the way, a couple of people gave some real good comments here here with Super Chats.
Yimi Marino said, Whatever happened to in-school suspension than out of school.
My friends and I hated in-school suspension back in the 90s.
Interesting.
This next one is actually a very good point.
Michael Klein: when you force students to wear masks, online schooling, and other damaging learning effects to children, of course they'll be unruly.
Who really deserves the paddling, the students or the teacher?
I don't disagree.
I would even say more the administration more than the teachers because the teachers are just following the teachers might be into it.
You never know.
Some of them, maybe.
I don't know if all of them maybe.
Okay, so in about eight minutes, we're going to bring Paul Sankey in to see what's going on with these gas prices and oil and UK and you know, talking about how much it's costing to charge up a Tesla.
We'll get into that here in a minute with the electric bills that's happening as well.
But Mikhail Gorbachev, you know, who ended the Cold War, dies at the age of 92.
The word came out, I think it's yesterday when this happened.
Yesterday afternoon.
The man who ended the Cold War war without bloodshed but failed to prevent the collapse of the Soviet Union died on Tuesday at the age of 92.
Russian news agency cited hospital officials are saying Gorbachev was the last Soviet president, forged arms reduction deal with the United States in partnership with the Western powers to remove the Iron Curtain that had divided Europe since World War II and bring about the reunification of Germany.
What are your thoughts on Gorbachev?
What memories do you have of that?
Yeah, I remember being a kid in 1987.
I was six, seven years old, eight years old, whatever I was at that time.
And Ronald Reagan, president of the time, 87, famous words, Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall.
And you know what happened six months later?
That's exactly what happened.
And that was in 1987.
That was the Berlin Wall.
Came down.
In 1990, Mikhail Gorbachev won the Nobel Peace Prize.
And the whole methodology was he was making relations with the West even better.
Fast forward, what, 30 years later, you have Vladimir Putin who talk about relations in the West.
Could it be any more different than it was in 1987, 1990?
So you're talking about the two largest figures in recent Russian history.
Mikhail Gorbachev in the late 80s and Putin of today.
And wow, have they gone completely different ways in Russia?
So I'd like to find out what Putin's reaction to his death is.
Is Putin spitting on his grave?
They were not fans of each other.
No, they are.
Okay, they were not exactly fans of each other.
So Putin's reaction is it will be a telltale sign of where Russia is today versus where it was in the late 80s.
Would you ask him, what do you remember?
What are your thoughts on him?
All I remember is watching the movie Naked Gun.
And Leslie Nielsen grabbed him in a headlock, rubbed his birthmark, and it goes away.
And he goes, I knew it.
That is the funniest Mikhail Gorbachev.
Because I remember those little moments in news and history, but that was so funny, man.
Leslie Nielsen, God rest his soul.
Hilarious.
Hats off, R.I.P. Mikhail Gorbachev.
Because in his senior years, he changed his mind and he made the right decision and moved things forward.
Senior year.
What do you mean?
While he was president.
At the time that he greenlit the wall, he was fairly entrenched in his political career.
But he got to that point.
He saw which way the wind was blowing.
And he glass lost, is what it was called.
Remember that?
Was that trust but verify?
I remember that was like.
Reagan said that.
Yeah, trust but verify.
Right.
And Reagan, you also mentioned at Reykjave, getting back on the plane, Gorbachev goes out there with his hands at his side like this, and he goes, what did you want me to say?
And Reagan turned to him and said, you should have said yes.
Because they were up there having the salt talks.
And Gorbachev, God bless him, changed his mind and he went with it.
And so I have respect for that.
Pat, let me get your opinion on this because that was sort of the end of communism, right?
I mean, who knows where it's at today?
But when's the last time a country was like, all right, we're done with capitalism.
It's over.
I mean, a recent member, I don't know, Venezuela.
I don't know where they're at.
But that was the end of the USSR.
You have family from Russia.
Your mom said, I believe.
Back to Azerbaijan.
But I knew, obviously, you grew up with imperialism, socialism, communism.
Now you're a major capitalist.
How are you processing all that?
So why did he do that?
Why did he flip?
Just think about it.
Why did he flip?
That's the real question.
Why did he all of a sudden go from, hey, we're this, everybody wears the same shirt, same clothes, same food, same car, same place they live.
We don't have any competition.
People get a chance to spend time together.
They're together.
Communism works.
Karl Marx was right.
Why did he switch?
Why?
That's the question everybody has to ask.
Not what a noble man who switched.
Yes, what a noble man who finally made that decision.
But why did he make that decision?
That's the question we got to ask.
Why did he?
Economically, it just didn't have a choice.
Well, no, he did have a choice.
He did have a choice.
Here's what happened.
There was a person who was willing to spend one-on-one time with him on multiple occasions to paint a picture and learn about his world and then teach him about the world that they could have over there if he opens it up where they can become a superpower and had a very civil conversation with him.
And eventually he said, you know what?
You make sense.
I hate to say it, but you do.
We have to switch.
He made the switch and he helped his people a lot.
And that man who persuaded him was number 40 president that we had in the U.S. His name is Ronald Reagan.
So props to Gorbachev for being open, but props to Reagan for being able to build a relationship with him so he can be open to that idea.
The approach that Biden has taken with Putin, if Reagan would have taken that approach with Gorbachev, you think they would have been open to the idea?
No.
There's certain things about how many things get done when you're sitting with somebody kneecap to kneecap and you sit down and you have a conversation with them and they say, look, why do you do what you do?
Here's why I do it.
Listen, here's what we do.
This is what's working for us.
Let me explain to you why you may want to consider doing this for yourself.
There is a method to communication.
And obviously Reagan is one of the better communicators we've ever seen in our lifetime.
He did that.
So there's power in that.
Of course, every time anybody from the left or anybody from the right sits down with somebody that they shouldn't, it's very easy for the media to say, what?
They're best friends.
They're Russia's puppets.
They're, you know, Cuba's puppets.
They're whatever's, you know, it's like very easy to do that.
But there's an art to getting enemies to say, okay, you seem sincere.
Let's talk about it, see what we can do about this.
So rest in peace.
Gorbachev, you know, obviously for me, it goes more to Rocky IV.
You know, if he can change, if I can change, anybody can change.
That whole message, Rocky IV, I've watched a few hundred times as a kid.
That's where the memory comes in of how we were able to kind of figure out a way.
It was a unified time at that.
You know, as strange as it sounds, it was unified.
We're definitely not.
By the way, bingo, I was going to go this direction and you beat me to it.
Pop culture played a major part of this.
Jordan Peterson, when he was here, he said, you know what?
Something about a 16-year-old wearing blue jeans and driving a Mustang, you know, it kind of puts the wind in your sails when you're a kid in Russia and you're seeing what's going on in America and the pop culture and everything that's happening in the late 80s.
It's like, okay, I kind of get that vibe.
That's freedom in that.
The Russians have said no to any further development and participation in the International Space Station.
Is that correct?
It's like three weeks ago, the Russian said, yeah.
And we're dealing with this.
Remember that started with Skylab and Soyuz.
And they built this contraption so that they could dock them together.
They built an adapter so it would connect to both ships.
And they connected them together.
And we did experiments in space with making primitive proteins and drugs.
There's symbolism there, is what you're saying.
Yeah.
There's also pop culture, right?
Because let's face it, you're not going to make eight tons of drugs in space.
You're testing things in a weightless, sterile environment.
But the point was the two superpowers, and everybody's worried about lasers from space and, you know, Reagan's Star Wars plan and all that.
Instead, you know, at the time, we got together in space.
And so there's little things like that that went through.
And I agree with you.
There was like a little togethering that was coming.
He probably showed, he probably showed, Reagan probably showed him, put in like a VHS of like the movie Greece and was like, look how much fun they're having.
You guys can have this too, bro.
You can have this.
The grocery shop would drink, bro.
That guy was a drinker.
Like, he'd be, I saw him with Clinton once and he was drunk.
He drank, bro.
Introduced me to this wolfman.
Yeah.
May he rest in peace.
Rest in peace.
Meanwhile, Bill Clinton was sitting next to a sex therapist and they were having conversations.
At the game, you saw that?
What an impressive guy.
I mean, you have to know, to be that ambitious at that age, to still want to improve his game.
But Dr. Ruth, Dr. Ruth, did you see that?
It's your hero.
Out of any presentation.
Did you see the picture?
Ben Levi.
Some people rethink and grow rich.
Some people read Rich Dad, Poor Dad.
Some people read, you know, Power versus Force.
Bill Clinton reads like, you know, thinking, grow, sexual.
You know, the stuff that he consumes is.
He still has it.
Yeah, it's on a whole different level.
Respect.
Respect.
Some people would have called him in the 90s a top G. Maybe he would be like that.
By the way, that's a guy who's televised.
You know, Tate does an interesting what we haven't even commented on the fact that he got banned on every single social media platform out of everywhere.
Did you have any comments on that?
Do I have any comments on Andrew's?
Tell us what happened with that.
I mean, what's the question?
What do you think about the fact that he got banned?
You know, he got banned on every flag.
I think it's disgusting.
I've said this before, and this is maybe, I'll make the analogy here.
I lived in, during COVID, I lived in Florida and Texas.
Pretty open states, okay?
So it didn't really affect my life per se.
There was no mandates.
This is what you have to do.
And not until I started to have, you know, engaging conversations with good friends of ours, you know, I'm thinking of in New Jersey and New York and in California, you know, Ricky, what have you, when I saw the restrictiveness, I was like, oh shit, that's what it's like.
But it's almost like the, you know, first they came after the gypsies, but I wasn't a gypsy.
So I, you know, I didn't say anything.
And then they came after the Jews and I wasn't a Jew.
So you don't say anything if it's not happening to you.
But as content creators, as someone that is in the Manosphere Red Pill space, especially all the people that I interview on the SOSCAST, to see someone like Tate get taken down, it really messes with me.
Because it's like, there's nothing he's saying, saying that I think you should be limited of your freedom of speech.
And I know that people are going to say, well, YouTube and TikTok and Instagram and Meta, they have the right to do whatever they want to do with their content.
But like, how far can this really go?
I stand with Tate.
Rumble gave him a deal, by the way.
Did they really?
Yeah, yeah.
Rumble announced last week or something like that that he's now producing content on Rumble.
We're going to see what's going to happen with this guy.
By the way, did they ever give an argument on why they did that?
Yeah, I thought that.
I've not heard this.
I saw the guideline of just the groups are threatened to like, why?
Because he's saying stuff that you don't like.
Doesn't fit your in touch with Tate.
What's your perspective on this guy right now?
I mean, I've said what I've said about Tate.
I think Tate, you need, like, you know, you need somebody like that to give the argument.
And if you disagree with him, give a better argument.
But until you can't give a better argument, his argument makes sense.
You know, like Bernie Sanders is necessary.
So somebody says, well, maybe, you know, he said such and such.
Well, what's your argument?
If you don't have a better rebuttal, maybe Bernie's right.
Trump does.
What's your argument against?
Maybe you have a better argument to rebuttal what Trump has to say.
Maybe Trump is right.
Maybe AOC is right.
Maybe Candace Owens is right.
So everything, like people like this is necessary for the opposition to want to poke holes and say, well, this is why.
But instead of saying, do you know what he did to his girl?
Do you know what he did to that?
Listen, if you want to play that game, do you know what OJ did?
Do you know what this person did?
Do you know what that Khamenei did?
Do you know what Putin's still on Twitter?
How come those guys are not bad?
So that argument loses credibility.
Well, the problem that I have with this, as someone who has been more liberal in their philosophies, is the classic definition of a liberal is that you're willing to respect other people's opinions that are different from yours, right?
You're willing to tolerate and be tolerant of other people's opinions.
What's happening now with the progressive woke left, big tech, what have you, is you're just shutting down voices you don't agree with.
That to me is un-American.
Okay, you might hate this guy, think he's misogynist, disgusting.
Okay, but that's America, baby.
Hate on him all you want, but you don't cancel somebody.
And that's the problem with what's going on in society today is that people have gone way too far extreme and they forgot what being a liberal actually means.
It's open to other people's perspective.
Yeah.
And I've fallen victim to that to where I'm just like, this is the way it's supposed to be.
That's how I think.
And I learned it from you when you were saying, I like to talk to communists.
I want to talk because, yo, sometimes you could see like, oh, shit, I can see how you think like that and how you adopted that idea.
Because, yo, every, like you said, nowadays, it's this is my lane.
If you don't see this lane, you're a piece of shit.
Let me tell you.
Let me tell you, there's certain people that there's always a demand for.
They're going to find a home.
This guy's going to find a home.
He found it, yeah.
First of all, every day Rumble was sitting there saying, I'm begging you to cancel Tate.
Yeah, of course.
Every day, Rumble was hoping they canceled Tate, and they did.
And now he's at Rumble every day because he gets to say, at Rumble, come do whatever you want to talk about and let the audience decide whether they like you or not.
And Rumble is right.
That's what they're saying.
You know what's crazy is because we had dinner with the CEO and founder of Rumble, Chris Pavlovsky.
What?
How many months ago was that?
Three months ago, five months ago?
And who was under fire at that point?
None other than Joe Rogan.
Oh, really?
And we had a dinner.
It was almost like a strategy session, what turned into a strategy session, where Pat said, you know what you should do, Chris?
You should make an offer of $200 million, match the offer that Spotify gave Joe Rogan, throw it out there and see what happens.
What did he end up doing?
He did that two days later.
He fucking did it two days later.
Okay.
And obviously, Rogan didn't go anywhere.
He's still on Spotify.
But kudos to him.
By the way, there could also be one of the reasons why Spotify didn't do anything because they knew if they did, Rumble would have cut that check.
Exactly.
So Chris almost gave Rogan, Spotify, the position to be cornered to say, well, we better keep this guy because if not, these billions of eyeballs are going to go.
This is the whole premise of what you talk about.
Free market capitalism is so good.
Give me another option here, baby.
I love it.
McDonald's Burger King, Starbucks Kafka.
Oh, my God.
I love it.
Okay.
All right.
Sounds good.
Anyway, we should get in touch with this guy, Tate, and maybe try to do something with him sometimes.
Eventually, we will.
We've been speaking with him.
Eventually, we will, and I think it'll be a big hit.
But if we do, it won't be a one-hour or two-hour.
It should be like a five-year-old something like that.
Like a marathon where we talk.
Who knows?
Maybe some cigars, maybe some drinks.
Guys, if I don't get to go, if this thing happens, I'm going to be very upset.
Whatever.
We're going to show next.
We'll see if any.
We'll see if any.
I don't know if you're.
Where we're meeting, if we do this meeting, they don't allow people that have nuclear clearance.
By the way, on a more exciting topic, CNN, we're trying to really be less of a Democratic mouthpiece.
What?
What a story here.
Wait, they're a Democrat.
They lean left.
The news network is now under the Warner Discovery corporate banner and let since spring by CNN Worldwide Chairman Chris Lick is trying to inject more balance into its program and become less radioactive to Republicans.
How and whether that can be accomplished remains a mystery.
CNN has to figure out what it wants to be, said Carol Costello, a former anchor there and now a journalism instructor at Loyola Marymount University.
Former President Donald Trump portrayed CNN as an enemy and a Pew Research Center study illustrated the impact that had on its followers.
In 2014, Pew found that one-third of people who identify or lean Republicans said they distrusted CNN as a source of political news.
By 2019, that number had shot up to 58% higher distrust than the New York Times by Washington Post or MSNBC.
If you wanted CNN to gain back credibility, what would your feedback be to them?
If you're sitting on their board, what would you say to them?
I think this is a move that they need to do.
I respect this guy, Chris Lick, coming in.
Who was it, Jeff Zucker, who was the former CEO of CNN?
Look, you know, CNN, I remember a time when CNN was actually respected and credible throughout the country.
The voice of James Earl Jones.
This is CNN.
Thank you.
They were the most trusted name in the New York Times.
Listen, I don't even watch CNN at this point.
Listen, stop.
I don't.
I watch one at your house.
It's just CNN.
That's not a problem.
You're like every airport in America.
CNN is on the bottom.
I watch one person on CNN.
One person, and I'll stand by this to the day I die.
I think Fareed Zakaria is one of the smartest people on the planet.
Fareed Zakaria.
He's got a show on Sunday.
Other than that, you know, you could throw Jake Tapper into being credible, Wolf's potentially a little bit credible.
But like this dude right here, what's his name again that just got fired?
Brian Stelter, the Don LeMons of the world.
When Don Lemon started crying on the day that Biden won, it was like, all right, what happened to real journalists?
And listen, I could spend an hour talking shit about Fox here.
There's a difference between real journalism and opinion journalism.
And I'm okay with opinion journalism.
But I believe that there should be a disclaimer on the TV.
This is my opinion.
The same thing goes for Hannity.
The same thing goes for Laura Ingram.
But don't pretend to be a real journalist, Don Lamon, and then it just be your opinion.
Yeah, but that's my point.
What makes Tucker Carlson, who's number one in television, different than any single one of these people?
Because, I mean, he's obviously a Republican, but he's just saying the facts and he's pointing out the hypocrisy and the stupidity of the other side.
But what makes him so loved and so viewed?
Because these guys are spewing the same shit if you think about it.
I mean, he's just smarter than them.
But at the same time, the majority of what he's doing is his opinion.
Yes, is he mixing in facts and funny writing?
They don't have good writers.
Reason that the opinions start at like six and after, and the real journalism, whether it's Brett Baer or whoever's on it, four o'clock.
That's like Neil Cavuto.
I love that guy on Fox Benz.
Charles Payne.
Oh, that's legitimate.
I'm a huge fan of Cavuto.
I got one idea, not to cut you off, Adam.
I got one idea, Pat.
To make CNN have a good voice and have a good vision.
Whoever they hire to read the news could have never have voted.
Not left, not right, not Democrat.
We don't want you to have voted for shit because I just want the news, but I don't want you to be biased.
I don't want you to have a different, just tell me the news raw and uncut, and let me figure out what I want to do.
Pat, I want to get your opinion.
You have to actually respect this move.
Okay, what's the alternative?
Just doubling down on the left ideology or just saying, you know what?
Let's go back to what Ted Turner envisioned in the 80s and let's just actually just get closer to center and being a credible source.
What are your thoughts?
Yeah, look, you know, when you come in, a new owner buys a dying company, okay?
When a new owner comes in to buy dying company, there's a difference if you buy a growing company, a steady company, a dying company.
When you're buying a dying company, what's the first thing that goes?
CEO.
Leadership.
Yeah, everybody.
First person you fire as a CEO, then you go through all the executive team and you bring your team in.
It's the first thing you're done.
You do it.
That's part of the deal that you do.
We're willing to buy, but you got to go.
Yeah, that's like if the ship is sinking, the captain goes first.
Exactly.
And we're going to ask you to sit and do whatever you're doing here, but you got to go.
Okay, sounds good.
So it's fair to say this is a sinking ship is what it is.
Okay, CNN is.
According to ratings, you're absolutely right.
Ratings, dollar, every possible way.
They're getting destroyed right now.
Okay.
So if you come in, what do you got to do?
Well, the bottom's got to go.
Don Lemon has got to go.
Brian Stelter has got to go.
He went.
By the way, this picture, if you can zoom in on the picture here, if you guys can do that, by the way, look at that picture right there.
CNN heroes.
Okay.
That guy's 30 years old.
That guy's 36 years old.
That's the thing.
He does not look 36.
Okay.
So first thing you got to do, restructure, fire, and then you got to bring some.
You got to bring some people from the opposite side.
You got to bring some people from the opposite side.
So CNN, if I'm really trying to make some stuff work, I mean, I'll give you something here.
They would never do it, but I'll give you some stuff here.
I'd go offer Tucker $40 million a year.
Okay.
I would do that.
Wow.
I'd go offer Tucker a five-year, $200 million contract is what I would offer today if I'm running CNN.
Or you bring back like a crossfire or I'm going to go do that.
I'm going to go offer Bill Maher's not leaving HBO because he's comfortable where he's at.
But I'm going to go get guys that are going to get eyeballs and they have a following and they're fun.
I'm going to bring Russell Brandt, Russell.
Russell Brandt.
Not Russell.
Russell Brand.
I'm going to bring him.
I'm going to go out there and get a younger hip-hop audience that's getting people to be on both sides of the.
I'm going to be on a recruiting spree of getting people on both sides to bring him to CNN.
And then we're going to talk about who do we want to be?
What's the long-term vision?
Here's what Ted Turner built a company for.
How far off are we from the vision?
Okay.
You know, we're going to go talk to some of the OGs that used to be there.
You can't talk to Ted Turner right now.
We're trying to set up a meeting with Ted Turner, but his health is not doing that well.
I'd go talk to some of the original people.
What was the vision?
What did you guys talk about?
What was the excitement?
What were you trying to do?
How much do you see dramatically this thing having changed?
I'm going to put a room full of 20 people from the OG OG OGs, from the 80s OGs.
I'm going to say, tell us what you see happened here.
I want your feedback.
What would you do?
I would hire them as consultants, pay each of these guys $40,000, $50,000, $100,000 to be consultants for a couple months to kind of go back to the vision and then come out with a new vision.
Here's what we're going to be doing.
And you got to fire and go through an ugly phase of six months, 12 months.
And then 2023, you say, guys, we'll be competing for the number one spot in 2024 because 2024 is Super Bowl.
You know, election is going to be coming back here.
We have to be ready for 2024.
So 2022 is the year where you're trading, you're firing, you're releasing, you're doing all that stuff.
So if they do that, the brand is a recognizable brand.
Like today, I'm interested today in buying a couple media platforms.
We're having calls right after this.
We got a call, matter of fact, because I want to buy a couple well-known media platforms.
But I have plans if I buy them.
There's certain things that we're going to be doing, and we're not buying those that are doing very well.
We're buying brands and we're talking to brands that are actually struggling to come in.
But they're massive brands that you know about to take to the next level.
So the person that is currently leading it, he sounds like it's somebody that could pull it up, but we'll see what's going to be happening there.
That's what I would do.
I think you're absolutely right.
And you got straight to the how.
I'm going to give you a great company that did this once before.
It was Harley-Davidson.
Harley-Davidson was not what it was.
And it got bought.
And they moved out leadership.
And the whole thing was prove it with the product.
Prove it with the product.
And the Hog Harley Owners Group, when they proved it with the product, they rejuvenated the whole thing.
But they had to prove it.
And the product in this case is, and I love the Tucker idea, is the on-air talent and the editors that are balancing the news delivery.
And I think if they prove it with the product and they do what you're saying, or something very similar to it, Pat, I think they get there.
Because you have this beloved brand, Harley-Davidson.
It was known for low-quality and crap bikes.
And yet it was this legacy of, you know, American transportation.
By the way, I would have loved to buy CNN.
I'm not in a position to do it, but I would have loved to have bought CNN and mix it up.
And I would have brought up Paul Sankey in to help us out with that.
But I think we have Paul Sankey here with us.
Yes or no?
Okay, can we, Paul?
Can you hear us, Paul?
I don't know if you can hear us, Paul.
Can you see us and hear us?
Yeah.
Okay, fantastic.
Thank you.
Listen, we're excited to have Paul Sankey here just for the last 15 minutes here to get some commentary on what's going on with this energy, all these stories that we're hearing about.
Paul, we appreciate you for making the time.
Paul, 30 seconds for people that don't know your background, if you can kind of share with folks, you made some really interesting predictions that at one point weren't popular, but you ended up being right.
And you've been doing this for 30 years.
I think you first called negative oil prices when COVID hit with your research from Sankey Research.
But 30 seconds, background for audience that doesn't know you.
I think, you know, the single moment would be I was the number one ranked oil analyst on Wall Street for three straight years when I was working for Deutsche Bank.
So that was in 2010, 2011, 2012.
And then I joined a boutique, Wolf Research.
Then I was briefly at a Japanese bank, Mizuho, and then I started Sankey Research.
So, you know, you could call me a former number one analyst on Wall Street or something.
I actually like that.
No big deal.
I like it.
Okay, so now the audience knows we're not just talking to anybody.
This is somebody that in the space, respected by millions, and you see him on media news being interviewed all the time.
So, Paul, I'm going to read to you a couple of things I saw here that seems a little concerning.
And then I want to see what thoughts you have on this.
So, you know, California Newsom comes out talking about how their plans are to ban new gas-powered cars by 2030.
And they seem very proud about this decision that they want to do, 2035.
And they seem very passionate about this.
It's the story I'll read from LA Times, buy a car in 2035 and you won't have to decide whether gasoline, diesel, or electric.
You won't have a choice.
Citing an urgent need to address climate change while cutting back on air pollution, the California Air Resources Board voted Thursday to require all new cars and light trucks sold by 2035 to be what it calls zero emissions vehicle.
If automakers fall short, they could be charged $20,000 for non-compliant vehicle.
The Air Resources Board said if consumers don't go along, that could cause big problems under the new rules.
35% of new cars must be zero emissions by 2026, 68% by 2030, and 100% by 2035.
How realistic is this when you read a story like this?
It's not.
I mean, if you listen to the automakers, they're like, we don't think we can do it.
And if you listen to the Californian energy management, they're saying we're going to have brownouts this weekend coming.
So, you know, they don't have the electricity system.
They've managed the energy system really quite badly.
And they've tried this before, by the way.
In the 80s, California had, you know, similar, very aggressive targets for electric cars that just completely bombed and were abandoned.
The main problem, as far as the automakers are concerned, is they don't think they can make the cars.
And then there's questions as to whether people will just go to another state to buy a regular car.
You know, there are going to be limitations on the number of cars, you know, where you buy your car and whether or not you can cross the border and crazy stuff like that.
One very salient statistic is that there was a study of California EV owners, I think, for the three years from something like 2018, 19, 20, and 20% of EV owners actually went back to a gas-fired vehicle.
So, you know, even the guys that are buying the cars have then changed their mind and wanted to go back.
And it was particularly women, interestingly, were one of the big demographies that preferred the gas.
The bigger car is one of the things women tend to prefer.
And those tend to be electric.
So there's a number of major issues with this in a state, frankly, that isn't managing its energy system very well at all.
Yeah, and you'll hear Pete Butichic, you'll hear a lot of these guys saying, look, you know, I saw one senator saying, I drove from Michigan to California and I passed by all these gas stations and it was great because I didn't even have to look at them and it was fantastic.
You know, if you can buy an electric car, you don't even have to worry about this.
And then a story comes up from Norway yesterday saying the electric, the lack of power that they're having to charge a Tesla is costing $100, which is pretty much the same as you would be gas.
So if the argument is climate change, if the argument is to, you know, green, let's do that, fine.
That's one argument.
But the other argument about it's going to be cheaper, you don't have to worry about paying gas prices, et cetera, et cetera.
Does that story hold credibility long term?
No, it doesn't.
I mean, for a start, everybody is resentful about these politicians because they seem to make $80,000 a year and all be multi-multi-billionaires.
And obviously, the relevance of that is that everybody knows electric cars are significantly more expensive than the cheapest gas cars.
So, you know, these guys saying, hey, just buy an electric car is insulting to lower income people.
Additionally, as you know, electric car prices are now rising because we have significant issues with the materials that go into these cars.
And if you look at them from a cradle to grave basis, that is to say, all the way back to getting, you know, the cobalt and the lithium and everything else and the amount of material that needs to be moved and places that you do that, like the Congo, like Chile, desperate water problems, environmental problems with the material sourcing, all the way through to the fact that the vehicle is much heavier and will damage roads more.
If the battery breaks, it's kind of terminal.
You know, it's sort of a $15,000 or $20,000 replacement cost.
There's a number of major issues here.
Even with these cars being subsidized, they are still very expensive and the price is rising.
For the average person, that all they watch is the news and the media, and that's kind of where they get their resources.
They're like, hey, it's good for me to go buy Tesla, for me to go buy an electric vehicle if I want to be responsible.
You know, I saw some data from Roger McCrat, McGrath.
I don't know if you saw that or not, where it takes 60 pounds of cobalt, 30 pounds of lithium, 130 pounds of nickel, 90 pounds of copper, 190 pounds of graphite, 500 pounds of steel, aluminum, manganese, plastic, and other materials to make a single battery, a single battery.
To produce a single battery, how much oil do we have to use to produce the battery that we're claiming we're going away from oil and gas?
Well, yeah, and actually, it's coal-fired power because a lot of the processing of almost all the processing of lithium, copper, all of these materials, firstly, the processing is very dirty business.
It's typically done in China.
And as you know, China is 75% coal-fired power.
Additionally, for example, in the case of solar, 80% of polysilicon comes from China, and there's considerable evidence that that's made using forced labor with Uyghur Muslims.
So, you know, this whole, you know, that's, I think electric cars are great.
I think for households with two cars, they should have one electric to short distances.
I believe 90% of U.S. vehicle trips are less than 10 miles.
And it is more efficient on that basis.
But as you also know, you can't drive long distances without having to recharge for a much longer time in an electric car.
So people, I think, want the freedom of being able to drive a long distance when they want to, even though they don't do it very often.
And I don't see how well these things are going to do.
Additionally, their performance is debatable, firstly, in very extreme weather, extreme heat, and particularly extreme cold.
And furthermore, if the grid goes down, which happens in extreme cold or extreme heat, then you can't charge it at all.
So I just don't think that the projections of sales of EVs are going to be, I think they'll grow a lot, but I don't think they're going to be anything like what people assume in their models.
For example, nobody models that 20% of California drivers switch away from an EV having bought one.
It's funny you say that because Elon Musk, he was asked the question, I think yesterday or day before now, I'm sure you saw this.
He said, realistically, I think we need oil and gas in the short term because otherwise civilization will crumble.
He told Reuters, one of the biggest challenges the world has ever faced in the transition to sustainable energy into a sustainable economy that will take some decades to complete.
Obviously, that is not what California and other politicians want to hear.
But let me talk a little bit about, ask you on the British household energy bills to jump 80% to over $4,000 a year.
When you see a number like that, you know, 80% average $4,188 a year from October, the regulator said on Friday, plunging millions of households into fuel poverty and businesses into jeopardy.
Unless the government steps in, the rise will have a massive impact on households across Britain.
And another increase was likely in January as Russia's move to throttle European supplies drives wholesale gas prices to record highs.
This is a catastrophe.
Britain's leading consumer rights champion, Martin Lewis, said, warning that people would die if they refuse to cook food or heat their homes this winter.
What do you see when you see numbers like that?
Well, in September of 21, before the Ukraine-Russia situation, I wrote about the gas situation in Europe and said that there would be more people that die in Europe from heat poverty than will die from COVID over the coming years.
And, you know, unfortunately, I think there's a good chance of that.
So the numbers that you mentioned were to keep it very rounded, in past years the average household bill was about a thousand pounds, which would be about one thousand two hundred dollars a year.
That's set, as you said, to rise likely to five or six thousand pounds.
The average British income, the average British income is thirty-three thousand pounds.
And so, of course, whilst it becomes very expensive for someone who's on the average income, you know, going from one over thirty-three to five over thirty-three percent, um, for those who are on low income, you know, it's extremely, extremely concerning, and the government is going to have to step in.
The problem is, you know, the governments don't have a whole lot of money, so it's it's very tough for them.
The big concern is that I think over 90% of UK households heat their homes with gas, and there's also the additional potential for just outright gas shortages, particularly because it's all heating use.
You know, if we get a very cold winter, which we don't know, I suspect there'll be very cold snaps based on recent weather volatility.
By the way, 87% of you US households have air conditioning, one percent of German houses have air conditioning.
So the summer that we've seen here is not that relevant.
Did you know that?
I didn't know that.
That's insane.
What I'm saying is that you have a massive peak of demand in winter, and we haven't seen that yet.
Now, I suspect that Putin is gaming this into winter to scare everybody and may actually be prepared to make peace in Ukraine.
Nobody's saying that, but I just think it's an outside chance.
But it is extremely concerning.
Now, if they get through this winter, Putin's leverage will collapse, right?
Because they've shown they don't need Russian gas.
So there's a significant risk for him that if Europe can pull this off, suddenly he just screwed his gas prom position in Europe, which was dominant, now becomes worth almost nothing because they worked out how to not use Russian gas.
And obviously, this winter is the highest risk winter.
Paul, what are your thoughts on what's going to happen with everything that we hear on media?
How much of it is true, with what's going on with oil prices?
Gas prices are going down.
It's going to keep going down with the policies that are coming up with.
Well, if Russia does what it does, it's going to go up.
Well, this is just temporary.
The gas prices are going to go down before midterms.
There's so many, it's so loud and nobody knows who to trust, who to listen to.
You've been in this game for 30 years.
You were the number one expert in this topic for three years.
What do you see going on?
And who do you really trust when you hear all these different information coming out us?
Well, I think the administration realized that to get inflation down, they could see that the largest component of inflation was basically gasoline pump prices, which, as you know, is also a very publicized price, right?
Everybody can see the gasoline price every time they drive down the street.
And so it becomes a very significant issue.
Now, actually, in terms of share of income, gasoline prices haven't been that high.
And you have to remember that where we're screaming about $4 a gallon and $5 a gallon in Europe, they're paying $10 and $11 a gallon for gasoline.
Crazy.
And obviously, as a result, they drive much smaller cars and much shorter distances.
But the government realized it had to bring down the oil price.
And it really only has one tool, and that's the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which is really reserved for emergencies.
But without there being an emergency, which was last November, there was no emergency, they started pulling down the strategic reserve in order to try and get oil prices down.
And that was pretty clearly trying to work into the midterms a lower oil price because politicians are just obsessed that high gasoline prices are going to get you voted out of office.
They then switched up.
By the way, at the time, the Energy Secretary Granholm was asked, when she announced the November release of oil, some clever journalists said, By the way, she said we're releasing 50 million barrels and some clever journalists said, By the way, how much oil does the US use a day?
And she was like, I don't have that in front of me, but I'll get back to you.
Like, oh my God, she doesn't even know how much oil we use.
So that was pretty horrific.
And but anyway, then as of the beginning of summer, as prices got really lively, the US has been pushing, the government has been pushing 1 million barrels a day of strategic petroleum reserve.
It's going down at the fastest rate in its history.
1 million barrels a day on US demand is about 20 million barrels a day.
So it's a huge, a huge pressure on the downside of the market.
And what's concerning is they can't do that forever, obviously, because it's coming from strategic petroleum reserves.
What will happen when it stops in October, right before the midterms?
And will they have to rebuild it?
And in amongst all that, that extra million barrels a day, firstly, has outraged people because a lot of it was exported because the US refiners don't particularly want that specific type of oil that they have stored.
You know, so there's the fact that we actually exported our emergency reserves is kind of dumb.
And then, you know, do we rebuild them?
In all of that, the oil price really, as of today, is still $95 a barrel.
So you put that much pressure on the market and you've only got it down to 95.
And then finally, within the past week or so, Saudi has said basically that they're going to defend $100 a barrel-ish.
They weren't specific about the number, but they basically said we're watching the oil price.
And if it goes much lower, we'll start cutting production.
So all of these things are, you know, implying that we're going to have very high oil prices for quite several years, I would say.
And as we really referenced, we don't see electric vehicles and the whole so-called energy transition really making a very big difference.
In fact, we now talk about the energy regression because you'll see that global coal demand is at an all-time high.
There's particularly Europe, but also obviously China, India, US even scrambled to replace gas with coal, which obviously is moving in totally the wrong direction from an emissions point of view.
Paul, can you just expand on that a little bit more?
The energy regression?
If I'm not mistaken, Germany is now burning coal.
People in Poland are scrambling to get firewood.
I mean, Europe doesn't have the energy right now.
Russia is flaring natural gas, so they have huge leverage.
I mean, what is this winter going to look like?
Because from the outset, it seems like it's going to be absolutely catastrophic for the EU.
Yeah, normal or cold, it's going to be bad and it's going to involve rationing.
And what you do is you basically shut down industry.
You know, so you shut down major consumers, major single-source consumers of energy.
Germany has huge chemicals.
I think the single biggest chemical processing facility in the world is in Germany.
It has a lot of heavy industry and the whole industrial complex is built on Russian, cheap Russian gas.
So there's a major economic problem.
Obviously, what the government should do if they get their act together is you protect individuals, you know, so you then make sure that homes get the energy while industry is starved.
So essentially, it looks very bad economically in a normal to cold winter scenario.
And they might just pull it off if winter comes in warm, which could happen.
You also get the fact that you can get a triple cold winter, which would be cold in the US, cold in North America, cold in Europe, and cold in Northeast Asia, all of which have cold winters when it's cold and need energy to heat.
You can get a situation where you have the opposite.
So a triple warm winter.
And frankly, years ago, I met George Bush's chief of staff, and he was saying that Bush was so upset about Hurricane Katrina that the two of them traveled to see the National Weather Center to work out what on earth was going on with weather forecasting.
And he said what they learned is that the weather forecasts are very, very accurate for the next 24 hours and pretty good for the next three days.
Pretty good for the next three days.
And after that, they don't have a clue.
And, you know, we do try to watch weather patterns and stuff and all the global flows.
But at the moment, there's been this extraordinary omega effect, which has been this extraordinary hot weather in Europe.
But China is currently having the biggest heat wave seen in history ever recorded right now.
And so that's also serving to reduce hydropower, which they're dependent on.
China's already water short.
And I'm sure you've seen the pictures of the Yangtze and other huge rivers that have dried up.
They have a major problem.
I mean, and at the moment, it's staying hot through September.
So there's a lot of weather impacts that leave plenty of room for concern.
And we're very concerned about China.
Not that we don't deeply dislike the Communist Party there, but we would like to see it ultimately become more democratic.
But they have huge problems going into their party congress.
So they have a huge party congress one in every five years coming up in October when they'll be voting for Xi.
And we'll see how they do with the economy being so bad.
China's economy being so bad and energy demand being so low has probably been one of the bigger surprises of 2022.
And there's been plenty of surprises.
Interesting.
Paul, appreciate you so much for coming in and giving insight.
It's always great to hear from you and your perspective.
I think sometimes the world, when they watch news, they don't know who to believe.
It's always good to get a different perspective for someone like you.
Once again, thanks so much for being on the podcast.
Yeah, folks, to learn more about Paul Sankey, Tyler, if we can put the link below, SankeyResearch.com, go follow him on Twitter and follow his content and his website.
We're going to put that in the chat as well as a description for people to find him.
Gank, if you enjoyed today's podcast, give it a subscribe button and a thumbs up.
Today we're doing a vault.
I'm about to head over to the Diplomat because we're about to have a couple thousand people that are going to come to the Diplomat to be with us at the vault with Chas Palminteri, Kevin Connolly, Robert Kiyosaki, Andy Fastow, Andy Fastow, the former CFO of Enron, who went to jail, who is willing to talk, is going to talk at the event, which is very exciting.
Don't forget about the biggest name who's going to be there.
Tom Elsron.
Tom Elsie will be there as well.
Tom.
And others.
So cannot wait to see those of you guys that are tuning in that are going to be at the vault with us.
For everybody else, we will not be doing another podcast this week.
We will see you guys next week, possibly next week sometime.
