PBD - Patrick Bet-David - PBD Podcast | Guest: Barry Habib

June 29, 2021 - PBD - Patrick Bet-David

01:52:51

PBD Podcast | Guest: Barry Habib | EP 71

FaceTime or Ask Patrick any questions on https://minnect.com/ PBD Podcast Episode 71 with guests Barry Habib and Adam Sosnick. Download the podcasts on all your favorite platforms https://bit.ly/3sFAW4N Check out Barry Habib’s Book: https://amzn.to/3qzGCM3 Text: PODCAST to 310.340.1132 to get added to the distribution list The Bet-David Podcast discusses current events, trending topics, and politics as they relate to life and business. Stay tuned for new episodes and guest appearances. Connect with Patrick on social media: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/patrickbetdavid/ Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/patrickbetdavid Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PatrickBetDavid.Valuetainment To reach or find out more about PBD go to http://www.patrickbetdavid.com About the host: Patrick is a successful startup entrepreneur, CEO of PHP Agency, Inc., emerging author, and Creator of Valuetainment on Youtube. As a natural critical thinker, Patrick takes complex leadership, management, and entrepreneurial ideas and converts them into simple life lessons for today's and tomorrow’s entrepreneurs. Patrick is passionate about shaping the next generation of leaders by teaching thought-provoking perspectives on entrepreneurship and disrupting the traditional approach to a career. Follow the guests in this episode: Adam Sosnick: https://bit.ly/2PqllTj Barry Habib: https://bit.ly/3qvDzVp To reach the Valuetainment team you can email: info@valuetainment.com Want Patrick on your podcast? - http://bit.ly/329MMGB 00:00 – Start 00:27 – Barry Habib introduction 7:06 – Patrick and Jen Bet-David welcome baby number 4 11:27 – The Vault 2021 13:23 – PBD’s biggest motivation 16:48 – Peter Thiel Roth IRA account fortune 29:44 – It’s hard to build homes right now 33:20 – Housing bubble 35:36 – House pricing exercise 41:27 – Top 5 markers for buying a house 54:06 – Twitter question- Buy or hold? 59:25 – Housing market shows signs of softening 1:04:57 – Who should the audience believe? 1:10:11 – Twitter question- Housing loans 1:12:19 – Powell vs Yellen 1:25:16 – Dianne Fienstein lists $41M Lake Tahoe estate 1:27:51 – Masks are coming back in California 1:36:10 – Florida condo tower collapse 1:44:16 – John McAfee tweet

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	I love PBD space.
	No, no, no, because I'm trying to see.
	This is it.
	We're live.
	We are officially live.
	Okay, we're live.
	Episode number 71, David.
	Yes?
	Yes, sir.
	71.
	71 with Adam Sauce and Barry Habib.
	Barry, this is your first time here.
	This is my maiden voyage.
	Yes.
	By the way, if you don't know Barry, Barry is a three-time crystal ball winner with Zillow and a former lead producer of Rock of Ages, the movie Rock of Ages, which I've spoken about on the podcast multiple times.
	With Tom Cruise, there was a Broadway show which you let, but you were also in the movie.
	I was the Rock of Agreement.
	So tell us the whole story.
	Tell us your background a little bit.
	So from my experiences on CNBC, I was on CNBC for a long, long time.
	And someone liked, I guess, either my look or my voice.
	And they said, hey, would you like to be a movie?
	I'm like, heck yeah, I would love to be in a movie.
	So I had no clue that it was going to be dressed up in this pastel outfit as Colonel Kaboom in this kid's movie, right?
	But I networked and that's how things happen and wound up being in a few other movies.
	I wound up being in nine movies.
	And one of the movies I was in is a great movie.
	It's called Barry Monday.
	I actually play The Doctor.
	And I made the trailer in the movie Barry Monday.
	It was a really good movie.
	And so the guy who directed it and wrote is Chris Dorenzo.
	So we became friendly, showed me the script of Rock of Ages, four other guys and myself.
	We took a shot, took it off Broadway.
	People went nuts for it.
	We said, let's really get stupid and put it on Broadway.
	And good thing I was ignorant about how risky it is.
	But we did, and it was a big success.
	What was bigger, the movie or Broadway?
	So the movie I wasn't really crazy about.
	You were in it.
	Well, maybe that's the reason.
	But no, Dad.
	Let's get some IMDB up here.
	Kyle, let's get on this.
	So I wasn't crazy about the movie because it made a lot of changes.
	The theatrical experience was absolutely incredible.
	So we were 27 longest running show on Broadway.
	We stopped.
	And then what happened was we wound up going back on off Broadway because it's a little easier.
	No unions, easier overhead.
	And then COVID hit.
	So we've been shut down since then.
	Oh, so you were doing it all the way up until COVID.
	Yeah.
	Yeah.
	The Broadway show.
	Some of the movies I was in.
	Yeah.
	Yeah.
	What should we look at here, Barry?
	Give us a movie.
	You know what?
	I really like Barry Monday.
	You know, listen, this is not it.
	Click on Barry Monday.
	I'm trying to see which movie that's going to be.
	Oh, Barry Monday.
	They'll put the trailer on for Barry.
	This is a weekday movie.
	We cannot because it'll flag us.
	So Barry Monday, the Ben Ryan then wakes up one morning and talked to realize that he's missing his family jewels.
	So make sure you make a doctor.
	I'm the doctor who removed him.
	Oh, wow.
	He learns he's facing a paternity lawsuit filed by a woman he can't remember having sex with.
	I mean, it's a very based on a true story, I'm assuming, right?
	It must be.
	Yeah, it must be.
	Okay, so how does that go with real estate?
	How do you go into becoming the real estate expert?
	So, you know, it's interesting because if you have a lot of different business interests that are different, like with anything else, there are certain things that hold true regardless of the industry.
	You just got to learn the industry.
	If you meet somebody and they speak six different languages, like, wow, they're really smart.
	But when it comes to different vocations, people say, well, no, you can only pigeonhole you in one.
	You don't have to.
	You can have very many different business expertise over time.
	Now, you run businesses, though.
	Because the way we got introduced to each other, I get a call from Greg Scher.
	Yes.
	Greg says there's a guy that wants to talk to you.
	He says, look up this guy.
	I look him up because he apparently had investors or some business dealings he had with you, thinks highly of you.
	Then you and I get on the phone together.
	Then we had a meeting together at Louis Bossie with a woman that showed up with us where your three-year-old son flirted with.
	My three-year-old grandson.
	Three-year-old grandson flirted with her.
	You're a grandpappy?
	I'm a two-time grandpappy.
	My daughter Nicole just had baby Karina, named after my mother.
	A couple days ago.
	Just a couple of days ago.
	Just a couple days ago.
	You said this is your second grandpa?
	Second grandchild, yeah, yes, yes.
	Well, you know, uh, his last name is Habib.
	You know, Habibi.
	You know how you know what Habibi means.
	I'm sure you get this all the time.
	Do you know what that means?
	Habibi.
	My dear.
	My dear.
	My dear, my love, love, friends.
	Habibi.
	Here you are.
	Habibi.
	Habibi.
	There's a song with Habibi.
	I love that song.
	Every Saturday night, I'm out in the club.
	You live.
	I saw meeting my teaching.
	Armenian girls.
	Adam meeting Armenian girls.
	That's actually not far off from the truck.
	Our goal today is to get smarter when it comes down to real estate today.
	Should I buy a house today?
	Should I refinance?
	Does Janet Yellen know what she's talking about?
	Is she the expert?
	Is Powell the experts?
	Who's controlling the bubble?
	Who's influencing the bubble?
	You know, maybe I ought to wait for interest rates to come down because I heard rates went up a little bit.
	You know, maybe I should wait six more months.
	Maybe things are going to go back to what you're going to do.
	All of these things.
	We're going to figure some of that stuff.
	He's going to reveal it throughout the year.
	We're going to see what Barry has to teach us about that.
	We've got a lot of different topics to get into.
	A ton of different topics to get into.
	By the way, how does somebody get a crystal ball award with Zillow?
	How does that happen?
	Most accurate real estate for it.
	They get 150 of the top economists, and I guess I somehow fell into that category.
	And you each give your forecasts and your predictions.
	And as it turns out, three times that was the most accurate.
	Wow.
	And also in the top 10 the last five years, but 17, 19, and 20 was the most accurate.
	17, 19, and 20.
	How do they judge accurate?
	Yeah, that's a good question.
	How do you join?
	Do you give your forecast and whatever the actual appreciation levels were based upon your, you know, who's closest to getting the correct appreciation?
	From a national average?
	National?
	Yes, national average.
	And what's your formula?
	How do you come about with it?
	You know, so my son Dan really helps out a lot.
	He's my right-hand person, and so we look at this together.
	But I really give a lot of credit to the people that – so I'm blessed to be a professional speaker.
	So I go out and I meet with my audience is typically real estate agents and mortgage professionals all around the country.
	And you get feedback from them.
	And so I learn and get a lot of feedback.
	When data comes out, it's old already by the time you see it, right?
	But if you talk to somebody, you meet them and you press the flesh, they're telling you what's going on right now.
	So we were able to see trends and develop algorithms based upon that.
	Forecasting crystal ball.
	One is going out there and shaking hands and you're hearing what people are saying who are selling out there.
	They're meeting with clients on a daily basis.
	And by the time you get the article that's written, it's already too late because somebody knew about it 24 hours before they wrote it.
	So having said that.
	But not only that, but the data is old because a lot of times it's based on closings, which means this is market conditions three months.
	The data we read in an article, it's already too old.
	It's too old.
	Got it.
	Okay, well, let's see what you got to say about some of these things here that's going on.
	And if you've got any lottery predictions of some numbers since you've got the crystal ball on your side, we'd all love to know.
	I highly doubt we're going to know that anytime.
	So folks, if you're watching this, you've got questions about real estate, post your questions on Twitter.
	Hashtag PBD podcast.
	Go on Twitter, pose your questions with hashtag PBD podcast regarding real estate, and we'll see what Barry has to do with that.
	Kai, track the questions going on Twitter and we'll come to some of you guys regarding your questions.
	But prior to going into the real estate questions, your favorite topic is what Peter Thio recently did.
	Okay, so let's go to page three.
	Peter Theo.
	Hold on, before we get started, I feel like we should make an announcement.
	What's that?
	I mean, we're going to get right into business.
	I get it.
	But you had a pretty big damn weekend.
	I mean, I had a baby.
	Over what just happened, Pat.
	I had a Brooklyn Ivy Bed David that arrived.
	You did.
	Well, Jen had the baby.
	She did.
	And she, by the way, shout out to Jen, man.
	Here's the thing.
	So June 26th is our anniversary.
	It's 12 years we've been married.
	Wow.
	At 5.39 in the morning, baby.
	On your annotation.
	Brooklyn is born on the anniversary.
	Yes.
	And so we go into the hospital, 8 o'clock at night.
	She goes into labor.
	Boom.
	5.39 in the morning.
	Obviously, the last thing you want is labor to go from midnight, 1 o'clock, 2 o'clock, because you are not going on.
	You have no sleep.
	And you go into it.
	And a baby comes, and you got to go to a few more hours.
	And then finally, she gets some rest.
	Couple hours after having a baby, Jen gets up and walks around.
	She's going to the bathroom, coming back.
	Just an absolute trooper.
	Fourth baby that she had natural.
	No pitosa, no epidural, nothing.
	None of it.
	Not a single thing.
	That's insane.
	Nothing.
	Yeah, that's absolutely insane.
	She took nothing.
	She's a G. She's a G at the highest level.
	And then 35 hours later, she came home.
	Yeah.
	And it was so cool bringing the baby home.
	I put the Brooklyn in the car and Dylan and Tico seeing the kid, reacting.
	It was so cool to see each of their reactions.
	Tico's reaction was very interesting when he looked at his eyes.
	Dylan was ecstatic.
	Senna wanted to play with her, you know, and miss mommy so much, but it was a great experience.
	Papa on the back seat was like, I've done this before.
	On Cloud9.
	But here's the thing that we talked about.
	I said, you know, babe, moving forward, wherever we go to dinner, we got to take two cars because it's officially party of eight, minimum.
	It's the four kids.
	It's me, Jen, Melva, and Papa.
	That's eight going to dinner.
	We have a problem.
	Table for eight.
	Everywhere we go, it's a minimum.
	If you join us, it's nine.
	If Mario joins us, ten.
	If you join, Elijah.
	Mario's going to be there.
	Mario's going to be there, but it's a minimum of table of eight.
	But we're excited.
	We're excited to have four kids here now.
	And if we had it our way, we had it my way.
	You know, if we were 10 years younger, we'd have 10 more kids.
	But, you know, we're limited at four right now.
	Well, I remember when you had three and you guys were kind of talking about a fourth and Jen was like, I don't know about a.
	Believe it or not, the idea of wanting to have a fourth was brought up by Jen.
	Really?
	Jen eventually, mine was five.
	Then we settled on three.
	Okay.
	We didn't talk about it.
	And Jen a year ago brought it up saying, babe, I think I want to have fourth.
	I said, why?
	She says, I want Senna to have a baby sister.
	So the big God listened to the prayer.
	And we have a baby sister for Senna.
	There you go.
	So Senna has somebody to play with now.
	So I know we don't want to obviously spend too much time on this, but what a whirlwind last six months you've had.
	I mean, can we touch on that for a second?
	You're living in Dallas.
	Yeah.
	You say, all right, we're moving to South Florida.
	Last minute.
	A month, like literally, how much time did we tell you guys that we're moving to Florida?
	I don't know, like 48 hours of time.
	What was it when we said we're moving?
	Like, how much time did you actually have?
	I mean, from the time I was told that we were moving, I was back in Norway, I think that was a month and eight days till I was on the way to Florida.
	There you go.
	Four weeks.
	And we gave that additional week.
	Hover.
	Like, you're just kind of making it a little bit easier.
	So you get to South Florida.
	Jen's pregnant.
	You're moving.
	Yeah.
	You rent that house.
	We rent that.
	Let's not forget 40 people have COVID.
	Let's not forget that.
	We provide everyone.
	Yeah, sir.
	Let's not forget every let's not forget that everything in a move to the office was made by Mario and Mickey and you and I don't know who it was.
	Eric, a couple people were helping out.
	Yes, they moved here.
	And then long story short, you know, we rented a house and eventually we bought a new house and then we're now looking at a couple buildings.
	We looked at four buildings this week at Fort Lauderdale, a few nice buildings that we're going to be making an offer on.
	And then meanwhile, we've hired four new C-suite executives with insurance side, PHP.
	We're up to now 35 employees here full-time with value tame.
	So we got a lot of stuff going on.
	Yeah, there's people walking around.
	I don't even know who they are.
	That's the idea of growing the company, though.
	That's what I love about it.
	So you got two companies that are growing and we got a lot of good things going on.
	But even at the same time, right now, I probably have, I've never had a time in my life where we have this many big projects pending at the same time ever.
	We have the Vault Conference coming up, which we're about to announce two new speakers.
	One of the speakers we just got, this is a guy we've been trying to get for the last three years.
	The guy has nothing to do with business, but he has everything to do with business.
	Everything to do with business.
	I can't wait to announce.
	He's a GOAT.
	He's the greatest of all time in his space.
	We'll announce that.
	Is it the Admiral?
	I can't tell you who he is, but we'll announce it next week.
	We have another person that's coming that's going to have to do with data analytics, the best in this world when it comes down to data analytics.
	Both of those guys will be at our event at the vault.
	I don't have the typical lineup of speakers that people have at their events.
	I don't go after social media influencers.
	I like data people.
	I like business people to be at the event.
	Vault's going to be absolutely out of this world type of an event.
	September 1st.
	September 1st in Miami.
	We're going to be a diplomat.
	We're going to have a yacht event afterwards, a party, maybe even an after-party at the house, possibly for like 50 people.
	We'll do a low-key type of a party at the house.
	And then we got things going on.
	Finally, I worked on a fiction book for five years.
	And eventually I just set it aside.
	It's 107,000 words.
	That's now coming to life.
	And we're putting some, we're making some big moves with this book when it comes out.
	I can't wait.
	People are going to read the book.
	They're going to think I'm absolutely crazy, what's on my mind, but it is what it is.
	I've been holding off on going up, going live with this book for a while.
	I think it's time.
	We got a lot of projects going on.
	So anyways, long story short, lots moving right now.
	Two of the biggest announcements will be made at the vault at the end of the vault, which people are going to have to.
	They'll see what project we got going on.
	I'm going to Fort Worth tomorrow for a shotgun flight, one-day flight that I'm going and coming back.
	I'm meeting with some of the most powerful investment bankers in Fort Worth for the entire day.
	It's going to be big in Fort Worth, like Oil County.
	And then coming back.
	So we got big things cooking.
	So you don't really have much going on right now.
	Things are pretty chill in BBD's life.
	No big deal.
	I can't.
	I'm not going to get myself with that.
	Nah, that's a boring life.
	You know, you know it.
	That's a boring life to play small.
	Nothing about what we got.
	And by the way, here's one thing.
	Like, somebody asked me a question the other day.
	They said, Pat, what is the driver?
	What is the biggest driver?
	People don't realize what the driving.
	We talk about making history and all that other stuff.
	I'll tell you today what the biggest driver is.
	Like what my biggest concern today is.
	We escaped Iran because in Iran, we didn't have any voice.
	You couldn't say anything.
	You have to, like, imagine being quiet your entire life because you're afraid.
	If you, God forbid you tell anybody what your faith is, you're going to jail.
	God forbid you tell anybody what your religion is.
	Your parents are going to get in.
	So you have to just be silenced your entire life.
	I cannot stand being silenced with opinions and thoughts that we have.
	I can't stand it.
	So the next phase, next 20 years, is to be able to give a platform to those who have been silenced in a complete different way where you have some opinions, respectful opinions.
	You have some thoughts.
	You have some ideas.
	There's a little bit of controversy to it.
	Fine.
	Come and tell us what your thoughts are.
	Let's have some good debate.
	Let's hash it out.
	Let's let the audience decide for themselves.
	So my biggest motivation next 20 years is going to be to make sure we give voice to the people have been silenced a little bit.
	And I want to have some entertainment.
	I want to laugh.
	I want to make a lot of unique projects together.
	So that's the next 20 years.
	There's a lot of silencing going on right now.
	I'm not a fan of that.
	Cancel with cancel culture.
	I'm not terrible.
	We just had an episode.
	We did a podcast last week.
	Our shortclip channel got suspended because I told a tweet that Cole Beasley had.
	We brought it up.
	The channel got a strike and it was suspended for a week.
	The Valetamin short clips.
	I just think there's too much of that going on right now where people are worried about different opinions.
	Listen, just let people hear the opinions and make up your mind for yourself.
	You know, I'm a guy that's read Atlas Shruck and I'm a guy that's read Communist Manifesto.
	You read those books.
	Something's going to make sense to you on both sides and you're going to say, you know what?
	I understand what Carl was talking about because he was upset because what happened with him.
	And here's a guy.
	Let me go find out what he's all about.
	I understand what Ayn Rand is talking about.
	I relate to this.
	I get it.
	My argument got stronger.
	But to say you can only read one side and you can only do this, that's a little bit of thinking you already have all the answers.
	And I'm not about that.
	I want my kids to read books and have an opinion for themselves through the debate.
	So we're going to do our part.
	And I have a feeling the man upstairs is going to be with us because he's been with us for a while.
	As long as the vision's real, you're going to be all right.
	Our vision is very real.
	It's very sincere.
	The right people are showing up and we're not slowing down.
	God keeps us healthy.
	The next 24 years are going to be epic.
	You're going to read about it.
	You're going to write about it.
	You're going to watch movies about it.
	Crystal clear.
	It's not arrogance.
	It's pure confidence.
	And it's just becoming a reality.
	So that's that part.
	Can we get into the podcast?
	Because I want to learn from this much.
	I do too.
	But I mean, I think it was great what you just did for the last few minutes.
	That was great.
	We needed it.
	We'll pepping our step now.
	Mary understands the story with him.
	I think it's necessary.
	It's so weird.
	The war to me today is necessary.
	It's not about the houses.
	It's not about, I drive a truck today.
	Like, I don't know if people realize I drive a damn truck.
	I drive a Ford truck pickup truck.
	Well, it's a nice one.
	It is a truck, though.
	It's a truck.
	It should be.
	I've had the nice cars and I love all the nice cars.
	I live in a nice place.
	I have a good life.
	But the next phase is purely going to a bit of a fight that we're going to have.
	We're going to have the fun part, but the vision is going to become a reality.
	I'm very confident about it.
	Very, very confident about it.
	So we'll see what's going to happen with that.
	Again, a media game, you're dealing with heavyweights.
	And to deal with heavyweights, you have to be able to face them off and have fun with them and build a relationship with them.
	And I think we're going to be able to pull that off.
	We'll see.
	We'll see if we have the goodies.
	The next 20 years is going to tell us if we have the goodies or not.
	We will find out the next 20 years.
	Okay.
	Real estate.
	Before we get into real estate, I want to go into the Peter Thiel story with you, okay?
	So Peter Thiel, billionaire, libertarian, a guy who was one of the first investors in Facebook.
	He put a half a million dollars in Facebook.
	He has amassed a $5 billion fortune in tax-free Roth IRA account.
	Now, if you don't know how Roth IRAs work different than the IRA, you put money into an IRA.
	It's pre-tax money.
	You get a write-off every year.
	But at the end of it, say you're putting $4,500 every year into an IRA.
	30 years later, you got half a million dollars.
	You take that half a million dollars out.
	You will pay taxes on the half a million dollars.
	The Roth IRA, you put money after taxes into the Roth, and then eventually you're making tax-free money.
	You decide to take the money out after 59 and a half.
	Great.
	You don't pay any taxes.
	So how has he raised and increased his account to $5 billion?
	That's the question.
	This is a business insider story.
	PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel has managed to grow a tax-free retirement account worth less than $2,000.99 to $5 billion today, according to a report from ProPublica.
	The Roth IRA was created by Congress in 1997 as a way to, for middle-class Americans, he's definitely not middle-class to save for retirement dependent of their employer retirement account initially had $2,000 per year contribution limit.
	Today, the contribution limit is $6,000.
	Americans that make more than $140,000 per year are unable to contribute to the account.
	That's because the tax treatment of a Roth IRA is so beneficial to its users that it allows after-tax money to compound for decades in the stock market and then be withdrawn tax-free as long as the owner is 59 and a half years old.
	Thiel grew his fortune by using his Roth IRA account to invest in early stage startups, which translated to massive windfalls when those successful companies went public.
	Years later, from there, Thiel was able to use that windfall to invest in more early stage companies within his Roth IRA account, now worth $5 billion.
	Thoughts?
	Mary, go ahead.
	Similar story on one of the other PayPal founders who did the same thing.
	And I think that that's why you're hearing for a lot of calls for we should limit the benefit.
	Right now, the numbers are out there.
	Like $2 million should be the limit threshold of what you can benefit.
	And the other aspect of this that's really interesting is you get the step-up basis when you pass it on to your heirs, which is another thing that they're trying to poke.
	They want the benefit to stop at death.
	It's just a difficult thing to do because Peter Thiel was in a position where he had the ability to invest in real early startups, do it through the Roth IRA, and then the explosive growth over, I think he started this over 20 years ago, that explosive growth over time.
	That's how you reach these enormous numbers.
	So I watch CNBC all the time, and this is like the number one story on CNBC right now.
	Like, how the hell did this happen?
	So if you're not familiar with the Roth IRA, I'm a huge fan of it, right?
	So what I tell people is if you're going to start investing, start investing long-term buy and hold.
	If you work for a company, especially a company that has a match with a 401k, that's a great option.
	Free money, it's a match.
	IRA, that's another option.
	But if you want to kind of do something outside your company or if you're an independent contractor or if you don't, if your company doesn't have a match or 401k, a Roth IRA is an amazing option.
	I've been telling our friend Eric Alera to get a Roth IRA for about a year now.
	And he's like, eh, maybe next week.
	All right.
	Anyway, get started.
	That's the best way, you know, I say the best.
	Eric, listen to this.
	Listen to the guy already.
	Adam Pure.
	So, you know, they said the best day to plant a tree is 20 years ago.
	The next best day is today.
	So Roth IRA, I started a Roth IRA in 2008, right after the great recession.
	I had no clue about investing.
	I had no clue about a 401k.
	I can barely spell 401k.
	I remember I started taking my company match for 10 years.
	Well, you know how to spell Pen 15, guys.
	I do.
	I do.
	I just learned today what Pen 15 meant.
	I didn't know it until you and David taught me today.
	Okay, go ahead, keep going.
	So I started a Roth IRA and I started a 401k and I started investing that that way.
	Now, here's the catch.
	The Roth IRA is so good that they only allow certain people to contribute, right?
	So I remember when I was first starting, I wasn't making $120,000, whatever the number was.
	$140,000.
	So it was amazing.
	So it was $140,000.
	Now I'm making a little bit more than that, so I can't contribute.
	So I haven't been able to contribute in whatever it's been, almost 10 years now.
	But for anyone out there making less than 140 grand, if you don't have a 401k, get your ass involved with the Roth IRA.
	The flip side of that, we'll get back to Peter Thiel here, is this is insane.
	You're talking about how they're maybe capping what a Roth IRA could possibly be a couple million bucks.
	When I read this, I thought he had $5 million in there.
	And I was like, oh, damn, how do you do that?
	It's $5 million.
	$5 million.
	It can't be $5 billion.
	$5 billion in a Roth IRA.
	And when you have a contribution limit of apparently $2,000 when this started in 1999, now the contribution limit is $6,000.
	You're telling me he somehow he's put in, he's maxed out his Roth IRA and built up to $5 billion.
	There's clearly some tax loophole going on here.
	Like, I get it.
	There's one side of the coin.
	You can do whatever you want, you know, invest all you want.
	You know what for me?
	You know what?
	You know how I would use it?
	Here's how I would use it.
	I remember one time, you know, guys would go talking about this kid in our school was like, hey, this guy took $10,000 of his dad's money and he turned it to $160,000 buying AOL stocks.
	I was in 10th grade, right?
	And I was like, oh my gosh, what if, or, you know, I wish my dad would give me $10,000.
	He's probably a crook.
	He's probably this.
	He's probably that.
	Everybody trashed this guy, right?
	Years later, I ran into him three years ago.
	Okay.
	This guy, I don't know this kid.
	Like, we're not friends, but I ran into him three years ago.
	I think he's in merchant service today, like five years ago.
	I said, are you the guy I think you are?
	He says, yeah, I said, weren't you the kid that your dad gave you 10 grand and you got like $160,000?
	He says, how do you remember?
	That was 20-something years ago.
	I said, I remember it because I'm like, I'd love to have $160,000.
	Here's what's crazy.
	That story fired me up.
	Like, shit, I'd love to have $160,000 versus some people are like, look at this guy.
	All he cares about is money.
	Look, this is how I would use this if I was Biden today.
	If I really cared about people saving their money, I would say, look, here's how big of an upside a Roth IRA can have for you as well.
	He didn't do anything different.
	All he did is the investments he made within the IRA were into stocks.
	You could do this well.
	It was within startups.
	You can do this well.
	It was within IPOs.
	You can do many of those as well.
	Just get better and learn about how money works, but definitely start a Roth IRA.
	I would drive the hell out of it and use it as a way to motivate other people to start a $200 month Roth IRA.
	So Patrick, if you think about it, right?
	At 9%, which 9.9% is the average of the S ⁇ P for the last 50 years.
	At that level, money is going to double roughly every seven years.
	So the doubling or compounding, it's real like it's the eighth wonder of the world.
	It's really magic when you think about compounding.
	So the question that I would ask people is, would you rather have $100,000 or a penny that doubles every day for a month?
	And at the end of a month, it's $5.3 million.
	Unless there's 31 days of the month, it's $10.7 million.
	So the key is it's the last double.
	The earlier you start, the more you can get.
	And if money's going to double every seven years, how many doubles can you get out of that?
	I say, congratulations, Peter Thiel.
	More power to you, buddy.
	I hope that $5 billion turns into $50 billion.
	And I hope more people go start their own Roth IRAs as well, if they can.
	Yeah, let me tell you, this isn't the last we're hearing of this story.
	The tax man comment, they're going to figure out something.
	Of course, they will.
	They're going to figure out somewhere.
	Listen, $5 million.
	Congratulations.
	$5 billion?
	You got some explaining to do, buddy.
	No, no, he has no explaining to do.
	No, See, that's the mindset of the majority in America.
	What's the problem, Adam?
	The government has explaining to do.
	True.
	Not him.
	He has no way.
	He didn't break any laws.
	The government created this loophole.
	He didn't do it.
	He simply went and followed the rules and the guidelines that his accountant gave him, and he's got $5 billion.
	So the government has a lot of explaining to do, not Peter Thiel.
	Unfortunately, the media is bashing him.
	He didn't do nothing wrong.
	They're going to find some ways to come at him.
	So as an example.
	Unfortunately, if they do, it's a shame if they do that.
	Because that's the government's.
	Back in 1999, and this is the guy that started one of the PayPal Mafia founders, and he also started, what, Palantir.
	He was an initial investor in Facebook.
	He's in early on a lot of people.
	He's a monster.
	Now, correct me if I'm wrong.
	I don't know if you guys heard this.
	Barry and Pat, he got 1.7 million shares of PayPal at 0.001 cents.
	Okay?
	1.7 million shares at less than a tenth of a penny.
	Now, if you can do that too, person out there starting a Roth IRA, you can potentially have a billion bucks in your Roth IRA.
	Good for it.
	No one else has that access.
	No, it's not about no one else has that access.
	Why don't you go network amongst the right people?
	Go shake some hands and meet those guys.
	Let's go network at the founders of PayPal, everybody.
	Stop.
	Bro, stop.
	What are you talking about?
	Yeah, go network with those guys.
	Forget about him.
	Okay, he went and hung out with the PayPal Mafia, which all those guys came out being billionaires, right?
	You know who I'm talking about.
	There's a bunch of.
	John Musk, one of them.
	There's a bunch of them.
	It's like 40 names that we're talking about.
	Read Hoffman.
	But here's what you could.
	I spoke at Texas AM University, I don't know, seven years ago, six years ago, some timeline like that.
	I remember that talk.
	Yeah, when I went to Texas.
	You don't do drugs.
	You get high off life.
	I get high off life.
	I don't like drugs.
	I remember thinking.
	Coffee freaks me out.
	I remember, I think, being high when I was watching that.
	I was like, oh, shit.
	This is what I'm doing wrong.
	Texas Animals.
	But you know what I told him?
	Here's what I told him.
	I said, forget about meeting a Peter Thiel.
	Go meet the Peter Thiel of your university.
	If I'm in school, there's a different camps, group of camps that you want to get close to.
	Some want to get with the camps that are partying and have all access to all the best drugs and the women.
	That's the camp they want to be a part of.
	Some go to the camps that are, you know, playing video games.
	That's a different camp that you go to.
	Some go to the camps that are, you know, just smoking weed and just getting high and they're just doing whatever they're doing.
	Some are the fraternities.
	Some of them are the sports guys.
	Some of the sports guys.
	But if there's a group of people that are the idea guys that are saying, how about we go take over the world if we were to come out with this?
	Go in that camp.
	Yeah.
	And then see what happens 10 years later.
	Guess what?
	More power to Peter Thiel and those guys that got into that camp.
	Elon Balwood was his 50th birthday yesterday.
	He turned 50 yesterday.
	50 years old yesterday.
	I think he's going to do something with his life.
	I think resume for the first 50 years, I think he owns the best resume.
	I think he's got the best resume for the first 50 years.
	Other than Barry's, by the time he was 50, he had three crystal balls already right there.
	And movies, Broadway, a lot of other things.
	But let's go into.
	By the way, speaking of Peter Thiel and Roth IRA, have you ever read the book The Power of Zero?
	Yes.
	What a book, man.
	What a great book.
	What a book.
	That was actually a book that changed my mindset.
	Yeah.
	Which part?
	Which part of it of the book?
	The whole book.
	I mean, it's a thin little book.
	It says this iPad.
	I think Ricky and I, my good friend Ricky Aguilar and I were talking about the other day.
	But my story with this real quick is I remember being in Vegas.
	I was doing the NALBA tour or whatever.
	And they had this guest speaker.
	I could not tell you his name for the life of me, but I don't know, Kai, if you pull up the power of zero, you can.
	David McKnight.
	David McKnight, there he is, I think he's from Utah.
	And he talked about the power of zero, and the zero is this tax-free retirement.
	And he talked about how taxes are sure to go up and how the government budget is, you know, completely overloaded on Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid.
	And if you want to have a tax-free retirement, a big staple of that is a Roth IRA and also the, what is it, the LERP life insurance retirement plan.
	But basically he broke down how you can have a zero.
	A zero percent tax retirement, and that changed my life.
	And I remember being in the back of a room I don't know why they do conferences in Vegas, because I was sure as hell hungover and I remember like popping my head up, being like what huh?
	Retirement.
	And it just changed my life in the power of zero, and that's a great example of what you can do with the Roth IRA.
	When did you start investing?
	By the way, I was relatively young.
	I was.
	I was actually about 22 years old when I started investing.
	Young, start them young.
	Yeah, I'm 23 when I started investing in real estate.
	How old?
	23 in real estate, 22 in the stock market?
	What's the first thing you ever bought real estate?
	I bought the condo that I lived in for $68,000, wondering how I was ever going to do it.
	I was in 2010.
	I bought it in Jersey.
	I moved from Brooklyn to New Jersey.
	It was way over my head.
	I stretched and, stretched and stretched, but I would.
	So when I was a kid, I used to sell stereo equipment out of this trunk of my car, right?
	So I got a chance to go all over to different areas and I said wow, I would ask questions.
	I was always curious, why are values here in New Jersey so much cheaper than they are equidistant from New York in the opposite direction?
	So I said maybe I should buy something there.
	So I bought this little condo there and two years later it more than doubled in value and by the time I was 25 I had invested in like 20 different properties because I thought that that was the way to go.
	Barry, that same place you bought at $68,000.
	What is it worth today?
	If I were to guess, I'd probably say probably $400,000 $500,000 $400,000, $500,000.
	Wow, $68 to $4,000 or $500,000.
	So, long-term play with real estate.
	If you buy and hold, you're going to be all right.
	Population is going up.
	So you know it's and and it's tough to build.
	As we could talk about how tough it is to build right now.
	How tough it is to build right now because you cannot find the guys that are actually doing the work for you.
	Yeah well, you know labor is tough.
	Uh, that's a big.
	That's a big one that people don't really think about.
	You know, there's problems with that.
	That we can get into with the, with the pandemic, unemployment assistance, 9.3 million jobs available, we can't fill them.
	I mean really, if you incent people to stay home.
	They're going to stay home.
	Now there's a portion of the population that have to worry about child care.
	So of course, but there's a lot of people that, hey look, you can't blame them.
	If i'm going to make more money, if i'm going to make 18 an hour to stay home, i'll make less than that to work, and work has other expenses and is tough.
	It's going to be hard but a lot of soft costs.
	Land's expensive when you think about it.
	If you construct and the cost of your construction is, let's just say it's 150 bucks a square foot and you want to build a 2000 square foot home, you're already at 300 000 land soft costs.
	You're at 500 000 and you haven't made any profit.
	And people are wondering why is there no inventory for the demand of first-time home buyers?
	It's because we can't supply the new inventory.
	People are not able to to buy a home below a half a million dollars very easily, or find a home below a half a million dollars very easily in jersey or in most.
	In many places of the country though, it has gotten pretty pricey on new construction, so you have to find an older home, an existing home, but those aren't coming up on the market because somebody has to sell that, which means they now have to buy a much more expensive home, correct in a tight inventory environment.
	Yeah, then the price they just came out with, the average price of home officially is at 350 000.
	This is as of uh, I think this article we talked about last week, Kai 350 is the average price of home today.
	So I want to talk about that because it's not the average actually.
	It's the median price.
	And there's a big difference there.
	And the media oftentimes messes this up because what they'll say is that's an increase of almost 25% year over year.
	So they're saying real estate's, it's going to bubble because it's up 25%.
	That's not the case.
	Median means that half the sales above it, half the sales below it.
	No inventory on the lower end.
	It's down 35% in sales because there's no inventory.
	Homes over a million are up more than 200%, over 750, 180% increase.
	In how long?
	In what time period?
	In the last year.
	Okay.
	So the median home price has been skewed much higher based upon the mix of sales.
	I got it.
	Actual appreciation is 13%.
	Now, we just got new numbers today, which I'm not privy to as of yet, but year over year, it's about 13%.
	It's still hotter than we'd like, okay?
	But it's not 25%.
	So 13% means a $300,000 house.
	Last year is $339,000 right now.
	It's exactly right.
	Yes.
	Correct.
	Yeah.
	It's got a calculator and billionaire.
	Yeah, so you got to do it.
	Okay, so if we're looking at that being the price, so is today a good time?
	The whole thing, let's stay on what you just talked about, which is hard to kind of get the builders.
	Who's taking the biggest hit right now?
	Because when I talk to GAs, GCs, and I say house business, GC general contract, house business, oh, man, we're like, we can't even, we have, you got to do it.
	Six months, 12 months.
	Like, we got people want our business right now.
	Who's winning right now?
	Who's losing right now because of what's going on with real estate?
	Well, if you look at some of the earnings from builders, they're skyrocketing, right?
	Lenark just came out with earnings, it's skyrocketing.
	So they're certainly in a very strong position.
	Even though costs are higher, they've put in the contracts escalation clauses and things like that that can protect them.
	So people that are buying homes for X amount on the contract wind up paying more by the time they go to closing.
	So I don't know if it's a win because you could also say somebody who purchased a home a year ago, they won too, right?
	So, and I think if you buy a home today and if you don't do it unwisely, you will continue to be a winner because I see real estate values continuing to go higher.
	Define unwisely.
	So people talk about a housing bubble.
	There is no housing bubble, but you could put yourself in a housing bubble.
	If there's a home that's valued today, that the real value, if you would get an appraisal or an automated valuation model and it's $400,000, the seller is going for the moon.
	They're going to put it up there for $450,000.
	And if you get emotional in your transaction and you start competing against a couple of people and you pay $525,000 for a home that's worth $400,000, you put yourself in your own housing bubble.
	There's not a housing bubble, but you just bought unwisely.
	What's the alternative though?
	If there's nothing in the market, listen, it's not easy.
	You have to be patient.
	Sometimes you may have to move a little bit further from a specific geographic area than you want.
	It's tough to do if I'm tied to a job.
	I've been there for 12 years.
	You're 100% right.
	I am not saying it's easy.
	I'm saying that there are certainly many challenges here, but you have to be able to.
	So we created this tool, by the way, Patrick.
	We created a tool that will tell you at what point in the future the home that you are purchasing above what it's purchased.
	So that $400,000 valued home that you're purchased, let's say for $460,000, okay?
	Which is pretty heavy above asking price.
	When in the future will that home be worth $460,000?
	Is it eight months?
	Is it 24 months?
	Is it 30?
	Or is it eight years?
	If it's eight years, maybe you should think.
	That's no sense.
	But there's certain markets you will catch up with in a year or two.
	You might say, okay, I might be into that.
	Got it.
	So I guess the question, like right now, we have a question here.
	Mark Schock, who asks a question on Twitter.
	He said, My wife and I have down payments saved and ready to buy.
	We live in the DFW Metroplex, and homes are selling $30,000 to $100,000 over asking price, at times all cash and no inspection.
	Should we buy now or wait a year or two?
	Will the market get better?
	Better is relative terms.
	So will it get more expensive?
	Yeah, it'll get more expensive.
	So should you bite the bullet?
	Yeah, you have to just, you have to really, every home is different.
	There is no blanket result because you cannot duplicate a home.
	Only one home can be.
	Kai, can you pull up his tweet out there so we can see what he's keep going?
	So what you want to try and do is get the best advice that you can as to if I pay over, how long will it take me to catch up?
	And of the choices that are out there, and there may not be very many choices, but try to make the best decisions possible.
	Be patient over the next 30, 60, 90 days because you'll be okay there.
	But two years from now, that value is going to be up significantly.
	Kai, can you go to go to zillow.com?
	Matter of fact, just go to zillow.com and go to, I'd love to know what Mark's zip code is.
	Go to DFW.
	We could pull it up on our site.
	We'd have to get in.
	Go to DFW.
	Just put Dallas-Fort Worth.
	Okay.
	This is a site that everybody has access to.
	So just kind of take a look at this for sale.
	For sale.
	And go, where's the range you run at the top?
	Go close that X. Go to price.
	Go to price.
	And go from 300.
	No, put 300 men to $500,000.
	Okay, to $500,000.
	Yeah, right there.
	Let's take a look at what comes up.
	And then get the list.
	Did the list come up?
	You literally put $300.
	So maybe change it to $300,000.
	I don't know what kind of house is.
	There you go.
	Press done.
	There you go.
	All right.
	So then go on that $450,000 right there for you.
	That says $450,000 click on that.
	So this $450,000 house, beautiful house.
	One bedroom, two-bath?
	Just a gorgeous house.
	Now think about that.
	Now go a little lower.
	It's been on the market for 263 days.
	No, Kai, click on that.
	Click on the house you were on and just go lower.
	Go lower on the right side, right there.
	Keep going lower.
	Lower, lower.
	Hold on, grab that MLS number for a second.
	Where's it?
	Go 14445.
	You're looking like a true crystal ball champion.
	Yeah, 1445.
	144.
	44-9565.
	All right, I'm telling, I know that I've got people watching this, so I got my boy office.
	Get that MLS number.
	It's 1-444-9565.
	And if you're listening, put that in our system and let's see how long it'll take for this home to get up there and what it's worth today.
	Keep going up, keep going up.
	So Zillow, keep going up.
	A little bit higher.
	Keep going, keep going, Kai.
	Okay, this was built.
	Check this out.
	This was built in 1946.
	I don't even know what house this is.
	For $4.50, it's one bedroom, two bathroom for $450,000.
	That's got to be the land.
	No, you don't understand.
	This is not even in a great area.
	Like, this is, this is, keep going down.
	Keep going.
	Don't be talking trash about Texas, buddy.
	No, I got a greater film.
	It's far for Addison.
	Kai, keep going lower.
	Okay, here we go.
	So 2020, price change, $895, $1,100 $9.95, listed for sale.
	Taxes on the property were paid.
	Tax assessment.
	Look at that.
	It was paid on $170,000, $176, $180.
	So it's gone down over the years.
	The tax assessment on it.
	Keep going lower.
	Keep going lower.
	I mean, at $4.50, I'm looking at a house like this.
	This has got to be like a five-acre property with a mini house on it.
	Type in Dallas.
	Just get back.
	Don't even do DFW.
	Just go to Dallas.
	You know, just do Dallas.
	And.
	Here, pull up that.
	Well, pull up the one for $4.99 right there.
	Because that's a single pay.
	Either one of those.
	It's four bedrooms.
	Let's take a look at this.
	So this is $2,256.
	That's a nice house.
	Okay.
	Four-bedroom, five-bath, $2,256.
	Go a little lower so you can get the MLS number right.
	MLS number.
	1460-5521.
	Okay.
	1460-5521.
	Go lower.
	Go lower.
	Just go all the way down, Kai.
	Keep going and to see the numbers, what it looks like.
	Lower, Kai?
	Okay, right there.
	$491 just went into the market.
	No tax history available.
	You're looking at $4.99.
	So this house, assuming this house, does it show what year was built?
	It looks like a new built.
	It looks like a new built house.
	I mean, you got to know, like right now, if you're in the market, you're Middle America, newly built, 2021, 222 per square feet, okay?
	Thank God it's got AC, by the way, because you're going to need it in Texas and Dallas.
	You're sitting there at a $499 house, okay?
	Middle-income family.
	How much down payment am I going to need for that?
	5%, 10%, or can I do 100% financing?
	You can do 95, 97% financing.
	Okay, let's just say 95% financing.
	5% on $500 is $25,000.
	I need to put $25,000 down, which may not seem like a lot of money.
	It's a lot of money for people that are making $70,000 a year.
	Not a lot of people have $25,000 down payment just put up there.
	So you put $25,000 down.
	Your payment on that's going to be what?
	What's your payment going to be on that, give or take?
	Is it fair to say you're payment on a $500,000?
	$2,500 a month.
	You're doing it at five times.
	I see what you're doing.
	So $2,500 a month, which is not bad.
	And you got to put $25,000 down.
	Estimate a monthly payment.
	$2,700.
	For a $500,000 house in Dallas, Texas.
	Okay.
	Yeah.
	So, you know, the challenge becomes, the challenge becomes, some people now on the flip side of it are saying, well, you should buy.
	Realtors are saying the complete opposite.
	Buy today because money is so cheap.
	Don't worry about the price of the house.
	Buy it because interest rates are so low.
	I mean, look what these bigger guys are doing.
	They're going buying $5 billion of land and properties and they're paying 25% above market prices.
	Blackstone and black.
	Yeah, Blackstone.
	If they're doing it, why shouldn't we do it?
	Because money is so cheap.
	What do you say to that?
	Yeah, money is cheap now, but it's also money is cheap, which has helped boost prices up.
	It's like a lever.
	Money goes down in the cost, so that's going to help push prices up and escalate them.
	The thing is, is that if you put yourself in a position that's over your means, it becomes more problematic for you because you want to make sure you can still make those payments.
	And if you pay much more for the house than you're able to handle, what happens if you run into trouble?
	What happens if the price of that, whatever, turbulence within that area?
	There are risks involved.
	I do think overall real estate values definitely go up.
	And I'd suggest to people to try and purchase that home.
	But also, one of the things you'll see on there is how many square feet the home was.
	So that home was going for a less than $200 a square foot.
	$222.
	$222.
	Okay, so $222 a square foot.
	That home at that level, compare it to other homes in your market of similar style and see, am I paying much more per square foot than what the market is bearing?
	If you start thinking about homes instead of the price, think about a price per square foot for a comparable.
	That's a good way to know if you're doing the right.
	That's very helpful.
	So let me ask you, Barry.
	So let's just say, let's just say top five, right?
	Okay, for example, if you're looking for a spouse, if you're looking for a spouse, number one, you have to be physically attracted to them, whatever.
	Let's just say number two is you got to be sharing the similar common values and principles.
	Number three is, you know, family's got to get along because you're marrying the family, not whatever.
	Number four is whatever you go down the list.
	I know you have experience.
	Yeah, many people ask me these questions.
	So if I'm asking you, what are the top five markers for me to look at?
	Would you put price per square feet of the house number one or what would you put at number one?
	Well, you know, you have to live there, right?
	So while the economics definitely are going to play a major role, like the house.
	This is your home.
	So does it fit for your lifestyle?
	Let's do it right for you.
	Let's go through it.
	So is this really?
	Barry, we're all taking notes here.
	All right, well good.
	Well good.
	There's top five.
	Is this fit for your home?
	Is this fit for you?
	Is this something that you're going to be comfortable in?
	Fit for you and your family.
	And your family.
	Put a timeline.
	What timeline?
	Five years, three years?
	You know, this is an interesting one.
	So the average time someone lives in a home, if it's a first home, if it's your first home, your average time is three and a half years.
	If it is a home that you is not your first home, it's over nine years, nine to ten years.
	That is the typical average time you're spending.
	So start a home three and a half years.
	Yeah, second home only.
	So listen, when I was doing mortgages, right, I was originating mortgages.
	It's like relationships.
	Your first girlfriend's three years.
	If you marry somebody, it's 10 years.
	That's pretty good for a first girlfriend.
	So I used to do mortgages not one at a time.
	What really changed my career is I started doing two at a time.
	I would say, okay, we're going to do this mortgage, but then what are we going to be doing that fits it part of the puzzle in the next mortgage?
	And anybody who's taking out a mortgage, do not think one at a time.
	Think about intertwining them because timeline is the most important thing.
	So if you are, if you think that this home will be right for your time horizon, then yeah.
	The next thing that I would be thinking about is upside potential.
	So what is this market's forecasted appreciation?
	Is this market going to make me money?
	Because now that we've got this, it fits for me.
	Now let's start making money, right?
	If I'm buying a stock, it's important what I buy the stock for, but what's really important is what am I going to sell it for?
	Because if I'm going to, okay, take Peter Deal, right?
	Does it matter if he paid 0.01 cents or 0.02 cents?
	Okay, so what we want to make sure is that what we're doing is giving ourselves the ability to make money in the future, not just to pocket the money, but so that we can keep up and we can stay ahead of the market.
	So when we purchase the next home, we can at least keep it.
	What should be a reasonable number for me to be happy with?
	So if I buy a half a million dollar house, what should my expectation be five, 10 years down the line?
	So for right now, the expectation that we're seeing is approximately 6% per year.
	So that means that at 6%, this is where people need to understand.
	6% might not sound very exciting, but it is.
	Because if you take a home, let's take a $100,000 home.
	I know you can't get a home for $100,000.
	Let's just do the exercise.
	$100,000 home, you put 10% down.
	That means you put $10,000 down.
	That $100,000 home, if it appreciates 8%.
	That's 6%, sorry.
	That means the home made $6,000.
	$6,000 profit on a $10,000 investment is a 60% rate of return.
	Sure.
	And if you were to take that home and you were to say, okay, at 6% appreciation, if it is not my first home, if I'm going to be there for 12 years or something like that, the home value is doubled.
	So that home, if it's $500,000, 12 years from now, it should be worth a million at 6%.
	And what you said at 6% is in five years, the value of the house should be $676, give or take.
	There you go.
	Okay, sounds good.
	So upside, I should be looking at making 6% average per year over the next 5 to 10 years.
	It depends on the marketplace, but that is a good overall level over time.
	And imagine 6% I won.
	If I did 3%.
	And that's going to depend.
	You know, sometimes condos will lag.
	If you're looking at a condo, condos will definitely be something that will typically lag in appreciation.
	There's a reason why they lag?
	Well, they don't appeal to everyone.
	It's not as broad of an audience.
	It's a little bit more segmented audience, and there's more restrictions.
	And you're not going to get, typically, you're not going to get as good appreciation as you would if it was a detached single-family home.
	Okay, so number one, fit for your family, timeline three to five years.
	Number two is time horizon, which we kind of talked about.
	Number three is upside potential.
	What's four?
	Number four is going to be making sure you buy it right.
	Okay, so how does it compare?
	I want you to compare it cost per square foot as opposed to looking at price.
	Do cost per square foot for a similar home and see if you're in the ballpark.
	And then by the way.
	Is there a template for that?
	Like it should be around 200 bucks a square foot.
	It has to be very location, location, correct.
	Now, by the way, those are all the tools that we create for mortgage professionals to help them do this in a second on their phone.
	But the thing that I think is very important for individuals who are looking, if they're going to make this purchase and they're going to find something that is at least comparable and they have to pay over, then you look back at one step and you say, okay, what's my upside potential?
	Does it pay for me to pay over asking price if in five years it's going to be worth this and I'm paying that, I still get to make a lot of money.
	So if you're going to make, in the example you said, so it goes to $700,000 from, let's say, five years in five years.
	So five years, I make $200,000.
	If I pay $20,000 over asking price, that seems like a good gig.
	Okay, that's a reason for that.
	But it's knowing that you're going to get that 6% over the next five-year period.
	And nobody knows that number.
	Nobody knows what's going on.
	Nobody knows, but you can make educated guesses.
	and a lot of them are based on demographics.
	Look, when we accurately call...
	A lot of them are based on demographics.
	Yeah.
	Yes.
	So when we accurately called the bottom of the housing market, and we also called, so this was really interesting because when I was on TV talking about there's going to be problems in the housing market, I used to get like a lot of hate mail.
	What do you mean?
	I said, don't take mortgages with negative amortization.
	Don't take interest only.
	Oh, there's projects.
	And we didn't like the housing market.
	I actually sold my company because we did not like the way the housing market was.
	And one of the main reasons was you looked at demographics.
	So let's just take the demographics today.
	The median age of a first-time homebuyer is 33 years old, which means they were born in 1987 or 1988.
	If you look at the birth rates from 33 years ago, what you'll discover is that 32, 31, 30, 29 years ago, the birth rates, for whatever reason, skyrocketed.
	That tells us that in the next four years, there's going to be an enormous influx of first-time homebuyers.
	And that is going to seem.
	Similar to what happened to boomers.
	That's exactly right.
	Well, it's because these 33-year-olds are millennials.
	They're the kids of the boomerang.
	70s and 80s, really.
	Now, hang on.
	Now, in 2006, when we said we don't like the housing market, and remember, it was still pretty good in 2006, so we're a little bit early, right?
	But we looked at the demographics and we saw that in 1973, there was a plunge in birth rates.
	So we knew the amount of first-time homebuyers coming to the market was going to be significantly depleted.
	There was a reason for that because in January of 1973, abortions were legalized.
	Birth rates plummet.
	And 33 years later, you don't have people to buy homes.
	At the same time, builders built the most homes they ever put up, nearly 2 million homes that they built.
	So you had over supply, not enough demand, prices were crashing, too much liquidity in the market.
	People were looking for where to put it.
	So what did they do?
	They have to crank up the volume.
	So they took buyers who really shouldn't have bought a home, fog up Amira.
	You can have a mortgage.
	And just no income, no asset, no job.
	Right, exactly.
	580 FICO scores zero down.
	What could go wrong?
	I mean, really.
	So what they did was they cranked up the volume, issued a lot of mortgages.
	And it wasn't the mortgage lenders.
	It was Wall Street putting out this money saying, hey, you got to fill these commitments.
	So they just allowed the regulations or the compliance for those to be very loose.
	And what you had was you had a big housing bubble that occurred.
	That's interesting.
	Abortion laws affected real estate 30 years later, 32 years later, 33 years later, what, 2006?
	If you're in any kind of business and you're not looking at demographics, you really need to do that.
	Okay, so let's go through it again.
	So I asked the question: what should a buyer look at before buying a house?
	Barry, who's a three-time Crystal Ball Award with Zillow, which is who makes the most accurate prediction of what's going to happen with value.
	So you got fit your family goals.
	What is it?
	If you're buying this house, does it fit your goals that you want with your family?
	Time horizon, number two.
	Upside potentials, number three, which is a math formula you can use.
	6% is victory over 5% to 10 years.
	We have that for every single zip code, we can tell you.
	And then four is buy it based on square feet.
	If you're going to use any kind of comps around homes around your area, go based on square feet.
	What's number five?
	What's your last one?
	I think the last one has to be that it has to fit within your budget.
	And listen, I'm not saying that this, just because it's listed as number five doesn't mean for an individual it's not as important, but it has to be within your budget.
	Because do you want to have a home that's got great upside, this and that, but you can never go out to dinner again?
	You know, do you, what does your budget?
	Well, a lot of people do that.
	You know that.
	A lot of people, their entire everything is about the house they got, but they have no lifestyle outside of that.
	No, exactly.
	So look, you get to play this game once.
	You get to live once.
	You want to balance it.
	Is there a formula?
	There's formulas for what you qualify for, but those formulas affect every single family differently because of their spending.
	And what I mean by that is, you know, it's like, hey, save 10% of your money.
	You know, hey, you know, give 10% and save $100.
	That's good.
	That's the richest man in Babylon.
	Is there a formula of your monthly income?
	You make $5,000 after taxes, 30% of your income.
	Ballpark, around 30%, just to keep it simple, okay?
	Around 30%, but that'll qualify you.
	However, you also have to qualify for about 40%, including all of your debts.
	So one thing that people don't realize is that the debt is really important.
	That means 30% is the following.
	If you're making, and by the way, are you saying net income or are you saying gross income?
	Gross income.
	So taxes have to come out too of that.
	But it's 40% of your gross income handles your mortgage.
	I'm giving you round numbers.
	I get that.
	But if you're saying if I'm netting $8,000 a month, okay, if I'm netting $8,000 a month, 30% of that is going to be a $400, but then the bigger number, which really affects most people, is 40% of that or $3,200 has to do the mortgage, the taxes, the insurance.
	If there's mortgage insurance, you should put less than 20% down.
	Maintenance if you're buying the condo.
	And in addition to that, all of your debts, your car payments, your minimums on your cost.
	You know what this means.
	So this means alimony, child support.
	That full loans.
	That $500,000 house we just looked at, the only person that should buy it is somebody that's netting $8,000 a month.
	Somebody who's pretty much.
	But it doesn't have to be a lot of money.
	By the way, maybe two incomes, too.
	Of course, but what's net?
	Net is $12 a month.
	So you're making $11,000 or something like that.
	Yeah, you're making $150,000.
	So that means a $500,000 house is lived by somebody that's making a household income of $150, per year pre-taxes.
	But Patrick, this is where your personal situation is.
	Think about it.
	How about the median house is $300,000?
	But if somebody doesn't have to.
	If somebody likes to eat home every night and they're not going to do that, they may have more discretionary income.
	Maybe they're going to go $3,000.
	Right.
	Somebody who likes clothes shopping and vacations more.
	That's why I said your means and your lifestyle as the last.
	How much would you add?
	I know you gave the five points here, which was very helpful.
	The audience is taking a lot of notes with this and they're sending messages here.
	Number five, for me, where would you put value for year the house was built?
	You know, meaning is it a 2005 built?
	So 2005 at 222 square feet per square feet versus 2017, 260.
	How much value do you put on what year the house was, the home was built?
	So you can almost estimate that homes are going to be around for like 60 or 70 years, right?
	And the average home in the United States today is close to 40 years old.
	I mean, think about that.
	It's 41 to be exactly.
	Average age is 40 years old, 41.
	So a 10-year difference probably doesn't mean too much, Patrick, in your example, so long as it's in good condition.
	That's why if you're going to buy a home without an inspection, you could be putting yourself at some risk.
	Okay.
	I think that's what it says nothing to them.
	Yeah.
	So 10 years, so if I have a house, one is built in 2016, one is built in 2006, you're looking at the house.
	The 2006 is 250 a square foot.
	The 2016 is 280 a square foot.
	How do you judge that?
	It's close enough.
	It's close enough.
	You don't care.
	So you would go 60 or 16.
	It's just what we said.
	Do I like the home?
	That's number one.
	Got it.
	But then after that, how does it compare to similar homes like that on square footage?
	Well, I got another question that just came up here.
	Folks, if you got questions here, post it on Twitter because we're actually going through them.
	Kai, if you want to go on Twitter and pull up all the hashtag PBD podcast, hashtag PBD podcast, you can put my handle in there.
	It's easy to find at Patrick Bed David.
	The question is, so this is from Chili Childress.
	What a great name.
	Chili Childress.
	So I'm on the verge of putting my house, two-bedroom, one-bath, ranch, that was down to studs remodel one year ago on the market.
	I bought it last July here on Southeastern Mass for $275, and it's now an estimated $321.
	So he went from $275,000, $800 to $321,000.
	Should I sell now or hold a little longer?
	Okay, so a couple of things.
	So first of all, because I happen to see it, people are asking about debt income ratios.
	I said 40%.
	Remember, I said round number.
	Could you exceed that?
	Certainly it could go up a little bit.
	There's going to be compensating.
	I'm just giving you round numbers so people could do quick money.
	By the way, I like the fact that you're giving conservative numbers because a lot of people are saying go higher.
	I would much rather go where you're going than go the higher numbers.
	Yes.
	Now, with this particular case, here's what you have to think of.
	So it appears that you made a profit.
	And if you're married, the first $500,000 of profit is free.
	If you're single, the first $250,000 of profit is free from tax.
	What is that?
	A homestead right there?
	No, that's just the federal income tax.
	So there's no cash.
	First homeowner or anybody?
	Anybody, anybody, anybody.
	So what we have to think of here is, okay, how much money did you put into it?
	How much money did you pay for closing costs getting in?
	How much are you going to spend if you list it with a real estate agent or whatever to get out?
	And then where are you going to go?
	So before you ask, should I sell?
	I think you should ask yourself, should I be buying?
	What do I want to buy?
	I think you need to go right back to that list.
	Does this home no longer fit my needs?
	And if it doesn't, then I have to buy something.
	Can I find something first?
	And then you can put your house and make that decision.
	Folks, Barry Habib, if you're enjoying today's podcast, smash the thumbs up button as well as subscribe to the channel.
	If you want to hear more, Barry Habib, maybe even bringing him back to talk more and to talk about real estate, press that thumbs up button.
	Again, if you got questions, hashtag PBD Podcast on Twitter.
	Great stuff we're learning so far.
	Five things when you're looking into buying a house.
	Number one, does it fit your family goals?
	Number two is time horizon.
	Number three is the potential upside potential of the house.
	Number four is look at the cost per square feet.
	And number five is your budget.
	Typically, 30 to 40% of your gross monthly income.
	You can get a little bit more aggressive than that, but 30% is the number typically to look out for.
	So, Patrick, if we can, I want to talk a little bit about something that has to do with creating some wealth for you with real estate.
	Sure.
	And I know we focused a little bit about buying a home, but the homeownership rate in the United States is 66%.
	So perhaps 66% of people that are listening to the business.
	Is that average?
	Is that higher?
	Is that lower?
	What's the number?
	The highest that it ever was was in 2005 when it was at 69.4%.
	So let's just say roughly 70% homeownership rate was the highest.
	That's when they were handing out houses for nothing.
	Yes, exactly.
	So at 66%, it's healthy.
	Certain markets, like in California, it's typically 55%.
	That's how they've dealt with the costs going up, it's shaved a little bit of the homeownership rate.
	However, that 55% still overwhelms the available supply.
	California is 55%.
	55%.
	But that 55% is more than the supply, and that's why prices keep going up.
	So what I want to talk about is that people that are listening that own a home, you really need to look at your mortgage situation right now because there's things that you could do that could set your kids up for college, that could set you up for retirement, and that can create enormous wealth and give you the life that you really deserve.
	And use your mortgage.
	People look at a mortgage and it's crazy.
	They look at it like they're buying a flat screen TV and all they care about is the rate.
	That's not what the important thing is.
	The important thing is the strategy.
	So for example, what we see a lot of, and we advise a lot of mortgage professionals to do this, and we get hundreds and thousands of stories of people that have changed individuals' lives.
	So let's just say if you have a mortgage right now and you're saying, I shouldn't refinance because my rate is, I don't know, let's say you got in at 2.5% and you see rates today a little over 3%.
	And let's even go crazy.
	Say they go up a little bit to three and a quarter or three and a half.
	People are not thinking about refinancing.
	But what you're forgetting is, like any good coach in football would say, you know, take what the defense gives you.
	So what we've been given here is this appreciation.
	So two things have happened to your home.
	It's appreciated and you've been making your mortgage payment.
	So you've amortized the loan.
	You've gained equity.
	In just the past year, anybody who's paying mortgage insurance, you probably can refinance and save that.
	But the magic really happens with your debt.
	Because if you were to say, what we see oftentimes is let's just take a typical family, $20,000 in credit card debt, one car loan.
	They've got a Chevy.
	It's a $29,000 car loan.
	They've got a little bit at Best Buy.
	They've got a little bit of Nordstrom's or wherever it is.
	A few things, nothing crazy.
	You take that family, you say, okay, let's take your debt, pay it all off, include it in the mortgage, even if the rate's 1% higher, right?
	So going from 2.5 to 3.5, let's just say, you could save about $1,800 a month in cash flow.
	But here's the real key: don't take that $1,800 of found money and go blow it.
	Take that $1,800 and pour it back into the mortgage.
	So if you bought your home three years ago, now you got 27 years left normally, you change it to 11 years left on your mortgage.
	No payments.
	In five years, you gain $110,000.
	In 10 years, you gain $270,000.
	In 11 years, when the things paid off, $320,000 benefit.
	That'll pay for your kids' college.
	And you saved 15 years of making your mortgage payment at $4,000 a month.
	That's the best retirement plan you could have.
	There you go.
	Barry Habib, okay, on how to do.
	Kai's back there taking notes.
	Did you get that, Kai?
	Did you learn?
	Yes?
	Okay, good.
	Now, let me read you something that's going on here.
	This is a realtor.com story.
	The housing markets show signs of softening.
	Has it topped out, right?
	Over the past few weeks, the rate of price growth has begun to slow.
	Fewer buyers are seeking mortgages to purchase homes.
	The competition for available homes, while still formidable, may not be quite as intense as it's been.
	And this could provide buyers a sorely needed opening.
	The market's topping out, says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.
	It's starting to show cracks.
	It feels like we've hit the apex and we're moving to the other side of it.
	That does not mean there's a bubble on the verge of popping and the prices are about to plummet in a free fall, reminiscent of the last housing bust that we had, according to economists and housing experts.
	Some of April's rise was due to the comparison to a year earlier.
	April 2020 was the beginning of COVID-19 and was local restrictions, general fear over the virus, hampered real estate markets, but that's not what the whole story is.
	January of this year, when prices were up 15.4% compared to January of 2020, which was well before the pandemic.
	So then the next story, I'll put them both them together and you tell me your thoughts on this.
	Is another housing bubble building?
	This is a street story.
	Same exact thing.
	They quoted Mark Zandi as well.
	But it says the price has dominated financial news recently.
	For renters, the price of an average apartment takes up an even greater, ever greater share of personal income every year.
	This is particularly true in big cities, where a one-bedroom apartment can often cost between $2,500 to $3,000 a month.
	But the real headlines have been in a market for single-family housing.
	In many communities, home prices have increased by 30 to 50% in just the past two years.
	This has led to median prices, home over $280,000 nationwide to nearly $500,000 in the towns and suburbs near major cities, which is kind of what you were talking about.
	So there's so much misconception.
	There's a lot of bad information.
	Tell us what it is.
	Okay, so there's a lot.
	So first of all, I know Mark.
	Mark's a friend.
	Interestingly enough, at John Burns' conference three years ago, we debated this.
	I said the housing market was going up three years ago.
	He was not in favor of the housing market going up the way I was.
	Burn right there.
	But so I understand where Mark's coming from, but what you're seeing there is what you're seeing is, number one, again, the use of median home price.
	This is a misconception.
	Median home price is not appreciation.
	Now, somebody said 15.4% appreciation.
	I have no idea where they pulled that out of because that's just wrong.
	There's no way it's 15.4%.
	The latest data that we have, and I said we're going to get new data today from Kay Schiller, which is the gold standard.
	This is the way you're really supposed to measure it.
	But the most recent was 13%.
	Again, what you said earlier.
	That's really, really hot levels of appreciation.
	But in order for there to, first of all, when they talk, here's the main concept we have to understand.
	When you look at the housing market, there's the housing market that's the driver of GDP, that generates economic activity.
	And then there's the housing market.
	I'm buying a home for myself and I want to know am I going to make money?
	Am I going to lose money?
	Am I going to create wealth?
	Two different ways to look at it.
	And what the consumer gets confused on is the media looks at the housing market as the driver of GDP and sales are slowing.
	Sales are not slowing because the market's bad.
	Sales are slowing because there's nothing for sale.
	There's nothing to buy.
	So if I had, when the new AirPods came out, the AirPod Pros, and you wanted them, but you go to Apple and they didn't have them in stock, it doesn't mean sales are slowing.
	There's so much demand that they don't have enough of it.
	So sales are slowing because you don't have enough supply.
	Same thing in the housing market.
	The other thing people get confused upon, any person who looks at stocks, we know that it's a stock market, but really it's a market of stocks.
	You can go to healthcare, you can go to technology, you can go to whatever.
	You have many different sectors, biotech, right?
	A dozen major sectors.
	Exactly.
	In the housing market, you have to divide it into sectors.
	There's your first-time home buyer sector.
	There's your move-up buyer sector.
	There's your more affluent areas.
	There's the premium priced homes.
	So look at all of those as sectors.
	Interesting point of view.
	So if you do it, then the picture gets clearer.
	Because then you could say, okay, well, sales are slowing, but where are they slowing?
	They're certainly not slowing on the upper end.
	They're picking up.
	They're doubling.
	They're slowing on the lower end.
	Now, the majority of homes do take place on the lower end, okay?
	We know that, but there's just not a lot of inventory.
	Because remember, in any market, if you're going to say there's a bubble, what's the definition of it?
	The definition of a bubble is that there is too much supply, not enough demand, and therefore prices will come down.
	We have the exact opposite, and the demand's going to get stronger.
	Barry, I remember when guys were speaking the way you were speaking.
	Everybody was saying, oh, my God, there was two communities back in 2006.
	It was the Angelo, what was his name?
	Angelo, oh my gosh.
	And he looked like one of these mafia bosses, right?
	Very good-looking guy.
	Very tan like you, good-looking guy like you.
	And he would get up and say, hey, you know, it's going to continue.
	It's going to do this.
	It's going to do that countrywide.
	Right.
	And people, oh, my gosh, he's right.
	And, you know, there was new Century 20, what was it?
	There was a bunch of these companies out there that were doing a lot of loans.
	New Century, I believe.
	New Century loans.
	I was chilling it.
	I used to speak on tour for New York City.
	Well, you remember the correspondence that we're paying on the back end.
	That was ridiculous.
	Guys were making $400,000 a month.
	Like, oh, my gosh, this is going to continue like this.
	And they were convincing.
	They were so convincing.
	Then there was the Michael Burrys of the world.
	Like, listen, guys, this shit's not going to last like this for a long time.
	So I think the biggest thing is that you're going to be able to do it.
	You know the camp I was in.
	I was in 2006.
	I was getting hate mail for saying the market was frothy.
	Well, here's my question for you.
	Here's my question for you.
	Who the hell should the audience believe in?
	Everybody.
	Everybody's an expert.
	Here we go.
	Everybody's an expert.
	What should we believe in?
	So here we go.
	Go for it.
	Number one, when you take a look at the comparison to 2007, let's do it.
	Okay.
	So first of all, there were 3.7 million homes for sale in 2007.
	Today, there's 1.05 million homes for sale.
	So the supply.
	That's a big numbers against her.
	There were 2 million families.
	There were 3.7 million homes for sale in 2007.
	Today, 1.05 million.
	And the latest data will show that that number actually.
	The supply has been cut in the third.
	3 million less homes.
	But wait, wait, wait.
	Hold on.
	Here's more important.
	In 2007, everyone in the United States lived under 116 million roots.
	There was 116 million households.
	The latest data is from 2020.
	There were 128 million households.
	12 more.
	12 million more households, 3 million fewer homes.
	And you wonder why prices are going up.
	How can that market go down?
	Now, somebody might say, okay, forbearance, foreclosure, this and that.
	We should talk about that because another big misconception, the media gets it completely wrong on this.
	So first of all, most of them don't know how to spell forbearance.
	Forget about understanding it.
	And by the way, it's kind of hard to spell.
	So when you take a look at forbearance, what does that mean?
	Think of it as a pause button on your player.
	You pause the payments.
	Now, when they came out with the CARES Act, what they did was they rushed to bring this out there and they made the forbearance so that you didn't have to prove hardship.
	So a lot of people say, wait a minute, I don't have to make my payment.
	There's no penalty.
	There's no interest for 12 months.
	How does forbearance work when it's all over?
	At the end of the forbearance period, you don't have to make a payment.
	Here's all my back payments.
	It kind of rides along your first mortgage as a second mortgage with no interest, no payments.
	And you're able to pay that off and satisfy it when you either refinance, pay off your home, or sell your home.
	So that's when you, so those are going to be very staggered.
	It's not going to cause any turbulence in the market.
	And if those properties came on, if there were a problem with them, it's like dropping a water can on the desert.
	You know, we need the inventory.
	But now think about the resumption of payments.
	So a big portion of people who took forbearance, they didn't need it.
	So many people who took forbearance got their jobs back if they did need it.
	So they should have no problem because they qualify.
	Sure.
	There will be a segment of the population that through forbearance, heaven forbid, we feel awful for these poor folks, but they now can't make their payment.
	What the vast, vast, vast, vast majority will be able to do, put their home on the market, probably sell it in a week, pocket a ton of cash from it.
	So, they're not going to let those homes go into the marketplace under foreclosure or under duress.
	This is not 2000.
	Listen to this: in 2009, 26% of homes owned more on their mortgage than the value of the home.
	Today, there is less than 2% where the value of the mortgage is higher than the value of the home.
	This is what they call underwater, yeah, 26% in 2009.
	Exactly.
	And now it's only 2%?
	Less than 2%.
	So, it's not even comparable to 2000.
	And here's the other thing, too.
	Let's talk about loans 90 days delinquent.
	Loans 90 days delinquent.
	People look at that.
	And I saw there was an article that you got.
	So they say, okay, loans 90 days delinquent, 2% of loans are 90 days.
	In a normal market, it's 1.5%.
	So people forget.
	They just show the headline and they don't show what the variance is.
	We just went through a pandemic.
	So yes, that has gone up a little bit.
	Loans actually in foreclosure, it is a quarter of 1%.
	So that's one out of 400 homes.
	You add to that the homes that are owned free and clear, which is 34%.
	Now you're talking if you took a helicopter, you looked over 500, 600 homes, only one of those homes is in foreclosure.
	That's one too many.
	Yeah, the number says an estimated 10 million Americans are behind in their mortgage payments and 1.7 million are 90 days past due.
	That's 2%.
	Four times as many as before the pandemic.
	That's incorrect information.
	That is not four times as many.
	That's from Sun Sentinel.
	And the Sun Sentinel is wrong because if you do the math on it, as you probably did in your head, that's 2%, right?
	Roughly.
	10 million on what?
	10 million?
	No, not 10 million.
	Go to the 90 days plus.
	1.7 million.
	Okay, so there's 86 million homes.
	So roughly 2%.
	Okay.
	So then you got 2% of homes used to be 1.5%.
	The variance is that's not four times as much.
	They may be talking about the 10 million are past due, but if they're counting people that went into forbearance, yeah, okay.
	But they had a free pass.
	They had a whole pass not to make their payments.
	The biggest difference is when you're saying 3.7 million to 1 million.
	1 million.
	That's just ridiculous.
	I mean, so if you look at the markers to see what happened in 06 versus today, I remember all the homes that builders were building like crazy.
	Riverside County had a 64% foreclosure rate at one point.
	You'd go to literally, you're walking the streets, six out of 10 homes.
	It's trash.
	No one's living there.
	Somebody just walked away from it.
	Because Patrick was in California.
	This is an 07-08.
	It was ugly.
	No, it wasn't.
	Riverside was ugly.
	People were gaming the housing market to try and make profit because it was going up and people were flipping homes.
	So one person was buying five homes.
	They didn't qualify for any of the five.
	They could fog up five mirrors, but they got mortgages on five homes.
	Today, that one person's buying a home for the home they need to live in.
	That's like in the movie The Big Short.
	Michael Burry was like talking to the girl and Steve Corell.
	There's a stripper that had five.
	Yeah.
	Matter of fact, that stripper was in Rock of Ages, just so you know that.
	Good girl, by the way.
	Yeah, girl.
	So go back.
	Good investor.
	Yeah.
	Question, Kai.
	Pull up Twitter.
	Katarina Kavar.
	Okay, Katarina Kavar asks a question saying longer loan and smaller payments or shorter loans, higher payments.
	Katarina, you got to go with what fits your lifestyle the best.
	And if you have a if you have a way to take the difference, so let's just say longer term and smaller payments, right?
	So let's just use some numbers.
	Let's say it's a $1,000 payment versus a $1,500 payment.
	My question to you, Katarina, is what are you going to do?
	If you could afford the $1,500 payment, so now you have both options.
	So what are you going to do with the $500 and where are you going to invest it?
	Because if you do invest it into your mortgage into a shorter term, that's going to give you a quicker payoff.
	It's going to put you in a position where you're going to be building equity over time.
	You don't have to wait till the loan's paid off.
	You're building much more equity.
	It's got an amazing effect.
	People don't realize it.
	So what happens is that when you make additional payments on your mortgage, you get the benefit because then every single subsequent payment is based on the lower remaining principal balance.
	So a greater portion of every single payment after that more goes towards principal.
	So it builds on itself.
	Look, if you have another investment.
	80% of America, that's good.
	It's really good.
	Yeah.
	It is really good.
	Of course.
	But if you have a business opportunity, if you could put that $500 a month in something that's going to generate, you know, 8%, 9%, 10%.
	For less than 5%, it's not good.
	Because where are you going to put it safely?
	In the bank.
	So the definition of the risk-free rate of $100.
	It's about 1%.
	It's a very good answer because you're giving the audience perspective to know that it may make sense for some and it may not make sense for others.
	But let me go to a different route here.
	There's two names that keep coming up, okay?
	And these two names, we've talked to Danielle DeMartino Booth, which you guys have friends.
	She had a lot of good things to say about you, by the way.
	She had very good things to say about you.
	When you and I were meeting, she said, Patrick, I know you and Barry are considering doing something.
	You're considering doing something with Barry.
	You know, I just want to let you know, I vouch for him.
	He's a good guy.
	So Danielle had a lot of good things to say about you.
	And you know how we feel about Danielle.
	Daniel Lawson is a homie.
	She's a family.
	And she's been with us now for a while, creating content down the middle with Daniel.
	She's crushing it.
	Question for you, when it comes down to two names, we got Powell, which is obviously the Fed.
	Chairman of the Fed.
	And then we have Yellen, okay?
	Which she sometimes forgets and she thinks she still has Powell's job, right?
	She still thinks that's her job, right?
	Which of those two is creating the biggest havoc and which of those two has the most influence on what direction rates could go to and what direction real estate could go to the next 12, 24, 36 months.
	Okay, so we should also mention Janet Yellen used to be the Fed chair.
	I didn't think she was a very good chair.
	Of course.
	I think she was a good Fed chair, but she used to be the Fed chair.
	And what Janet Yellen's job now as Treasury Secretary, besides signing the money that comes out, the Treasury Secretary signs the cash that you get, is Janet Yellen sells the president's agenda.
	So what's her job to do is not what's good for you, what's good for me, what's good for people listening.
	It is to sell the president's agenda.
	Let's understand that, right?
	So she's a salesperson right now.
	She had different responsibilities as a Fed chair.
	But it is crazy and maddening to hear this woman talk about the wealth gap that's out there and wealth inequality when her and Ben Bernanke created it.
	Because what they decided to do was now, who knows what the motivation was.
	It might have been pure motivation.
	But what they decided to do was they took rates to these unbelievably low levels, begin quantitative easing, and by taking rates to where you were punished for savings, they gave us, as we all know, TINA, T-I-N-A, which stands for there is no alternative.
	And Bernanke used to call this the wealth effect.
	And what he said was: if we stop people from saving and force them to all put their money collectively, it's the same thing that the Reddit boards are doing, okay?
	It's just on a grander scale.
	It's no different than the Reddit meme stocks, except they did it with Wall Street bets.
	It's the exact same thing, except now they've got the whole country doing it because I'm going to punish you for saving.
	I'm going to let you earn less than 1% in your savings.
	And the only place you could put your money is in the stock market.
	And by doing so, everybody did that.
	The stock market has been on what kind of a ride since then, we all know, okay?
	So when you see that occur.
	By the way, folks, I want you to hear.
	Can you say that one more time?
	Say the last 30 seconds one more time what they've done.
	This is very important.
	They punished you to save your money, to put it into market markets.
	Say that one more time.
	So by taking the benefit of saving money, people used to say, I could plan for my retirement because I could put my money in the bank safely, get 4%, 5%, 6%.
	Money market, CD, saving account.
	You have many options.
	It's safe.
	I can plan for my retirement.
	Now, I can never retire like that.
	Okay.
	I can't do that.
	And what would happen to those people is that they were forced.
	People that shouldn't be taking risks.
	Grandma was now taking risks and putting them in the stock market.
	Fortunately, because everybody did it, it created growth in the stock market as we have seen for the last 12 years.
	However, here's the big point: is that not everybody's in the stock market.
	So this is what created the haves and the have-nots to a much more exacerbated way because now people, 50% of families were able to go in the stock market, 50% of families benefited.
	Those 50% that were left behind were left way behind.
	And it is sickening to hear her talk about it as if she had nothing to do with it because her and Ben Bernanke created this.
	It's the Wall Street versus Main Street approach right there.
	Wall Street versus Main Street approach.
	Exactly right.
	So you're not a fan of Yellen.
	I think she has implemented.
	I don't think that she, you know, well, currently, again, she's a salesperson.
	So, you know, you always have to be a little leery of salespeople because they all have their agenda, right?
	What would you say to somebody who says, well, Barry's a salesperson, he's got an agenda.
	He's in real estate.
	Well, every individual has their own agenda, right?
	Where you stand depends on where you sit, right?
	So you have your point of view, and everybody's trying to do that.
	I'm offering an opinion, which is just that.
	It's an opinion.
	That's the way it should be taken, right?
	It's not, there's some things that are factual.
	Some of the data we spoke about is factual.
	But in this case, it's an opinion.
	I don't think she did a very good job as the Fed chair as well.
	I think that she had chances where she could have raised rates and did not do so.
	I think that the Fed gets frightened because who wants to be named as the Fed chair who let the economy tank?
	And that's the problem Jay Powell, who you mentioned, has right now.
	Because when he tried in 2013 to taper, the market went into a tantrum and he backed off.
	Now, that was taking the Fed's balance sheet from $4.3 trillion to $3.8 trillion, and they say, can't do it.
	Now, the Fed's balance sheet is $8 trillion.
	That's a scary thought when you think about that.
	So let's do this.
	$10 trillion balance sheet.
	Let's do this.
	This is fun because everybody is listening.
	They're hearing trillion, trillion, trillion.
	So listen, if I said to you, hey, let's do a business deal, cash deal, and I said, Patrick, I'm going to pay you cash, $100,000 cash.
	I bring a brief big suitcase in.
	I open up the suitcase and it's $100 bills.
	It's very anticlimactic.
	It's a four-inch stack on $100 bills.
	A million dollars is a 40-inch stack of $100 bills.
	If you could stack $100 bills this high, it's a million bucks.
	A billion takes you to the Empire State Building twice.
	$8 trillion, if I stack them up one on top of each other and then tilted it on its side, it'd go from here to California and back 5,400 miles.
	That's what $8 trillion is in $100 bills.
	It is an enormous sum of money, and we get blind to it because we constantly hear it and we become immune.
	Yeah.
	So then the question becomes, then the question becomes when we're talking about interest rates, how likely, how soon do you predict the rates could go up to 6%?
	Can it happen?
	If yes, how soon can that happen?
	Okay, so let's understand, there's a few things occurring right now.
	So I'm going to answer that question, but let's give some background.
	So I do think there might be some policy change coming in August.
	So I think that when we get the Jackson Hole meeting by the Fed, that has in the past been where they changed policy.
	Now, we heard from the St. Louis Fed president Bullard.
	We also just heard from another Fed president who was talking, oh, we were talking about the fact that the housing market might be overheating.
	And when we hear, oh, this was the Boston Fed president.
	I'll get it in a minute.
	The Boston Fed president talked about the housing market overheating.
	So what they're saying is that the Fed should stop buying mortgage-backed securities.
	Eric Rosengren?
	Eric Rosengren is who it was, yes.
	So the two of them now have been talking about the market overheating.
	So I think come the 26th, 27th, 28th of August, at that meeting, they may say that the Fed's going to begin to taper their purchase of mortgage-backed securities.
	How much are they buying?
	Well, they lie.
	They said they were buying $40 billion.
	We started calling them out on it.
	So what did they do?
	They removed the data from the newyorkfed.org, so you couldn't find it that easily.
	Recently, they purchased about 80 billion in a month.
	So now they changed their language to 40 billion to 100, to at least $40 billion a month, but it's closer to $100 billion a month that they're buying.
	So they're buying the market.
	It's called yield curve control.
	We haven't really done it since the 1940s, but they pegged yields and they said we want to keep it here.
	Think about how crazy it is.
	Inflation erodes the buying power.
	The inflation rate right now, let's call it 3.5% as the core rate, stripping out food and energy.
	The 10-year Treasury yield is 1.5%.
	So I'm getting 1.5%, but my money's eroding at 3.5%.
	That should never happen.
	How long can that be sustainable?
	It shouldn't be sustainable, but when the Fed is buying so much in Treasuries to keep and suppress that yield down artificially, if inflation is 3.5%, you've got to make a spread on that.
	It's got to be 4.5%.
	That's where the 10-year Treasury should be with 3.5% inflation.
	Now, I think inflation will abate.
	I think inflation will come.
	I know the Fed loves transitory.
	There are certain things that will stick.
	But look, Patrick, if you take a look at some of the reasons why the numbers in CPI went up and the numbers in the PC, personal consumption expenditures, a different inflation report that the Fed loves.
	The reason why they went up is the reopening.
	Because what really went up is sporting event sales went up 10%.
	Hotels went up 9%.
	Airlines went up 10%.
	And then you have the chip shortage issue.
	So it made vehicles go up 5% and 10% and computers go up 5%.
	Because of that, it made a big jump in CPI.
	But those sectors combined only represent 7% of the economy.
	The other 93% only went up three-tenths of a percent.
	So we have some inflation.
	It's not as high as being stated.
	It will calm down.
	But rates will never go to 6%.
	Never go to 6%.
	No, at least not while I'm around, I don't think.
	Because what has to cause that is you need enormous inflation.
	Technology is advancing so much.
	It is keeping costs lower.
	Artificial intelligence, robotics, technology in general will continue to make things cheaper and cheaper and cheaper and cheaper.
	And in addition to that, the supply of labor that we have is pretty strong.
	We're in a position that if jobs become eliminated, you're going to see costs continue to be pressured lower.
	And also globalization has kept.
	So Arthur Laffer, whom you know who he is.
	I spoke to him, was it last week, Kai?
	Last week we had him on or something.
	Two weeks ago, I said that what's your biggest concern?
	What do you stand with inflation?
	He says, I'm not at all worried about inflation because he said the leading indicator of inflation to me is gold prices and gold prices and gold prices haven't moved.
	Then I asked Danielle and Danielle's like, no, inflation is here.
	There's nothing we can do about it.
	It's going to continue to go up.
	Where do you stand with inflation?
	Love art.
	Danielle's right.
	Inflation will be, some inflation is going to be sticky, especially on the wages.
	That's the stickiest.
	Are we going to go into hyperinflation mode or no, no, no?
	We're not going to do that, although there's a lot of money sloshing around, but no hyperinflation.
	And you can't just go buy gold anymore because the boomerocks of gold used to be a good indicator.
	And since the beginning of time, they say one ounce of gold should buy one fine man's suit, right?
	And that probably is still true today.
	So with gold at a little over $1,700 an ounce, I think that that still holds true.
	But gold isn't the only indicator because of the rise of cryptocurrencies.
	So if you don't believe in fiat money, because the printing press, you had the alternative of gold before, but now you also have the alternative crypto.
	So gold, if it were not for crypto, gold would be at a much higher level.
	All right.
	So you're not too worried about inflation.
	You don't think rates are going to get to 6% anytime soon?
	I'm concerned about inflation, but I do think it will abate, and I think some of it was going to be sticky and stay.
	But here's the thing that we have to understand: is that debt, and I know most people don't get this in this, I'm going to give a hat tip to one of my mentors, Lacey Hunt, who's one of the most brilliant minds out there.
	So he taught me this and showed me this.
	But debt, we know this every time in history and everywhere in the world, the higher the debt, the lower the rates.
	Because what debt does is it drives economic activity slower, which prevents inflation.
	If you have a family that wants to buy a car, when we were kids, used to have a piggy bank, I used to have a piggy bank.
	You'd save up, you break the piggy bank, you go buy it.
	As adults, who wants to do that?
	We want instant gratification.
	We want it now.
	So we use credit to take a future purchase and make it today.
	If a family wants to buy a car, they go out and they buy that car today using credit, using debt, and it creates economic activity.
	Economic activity, what that will do is the dealership, the manufacturer, the salesperson, they all make money, they spend money, but it has a short life.
	What sticks is now that family has a thousand dollar a month debt for the next 60 months, which means they could buy less.
	And it's the same thing with our economy.
	CARES Act 1 and 2 was $2.8 trillion.
	That was in March and April of 2020.
	By October, the economy was already slowing.
	The GDP for the United States was 4.3% in 2020.
	In the fourth quarter, it was 0.4%.
	It was all front-loaded.
	And the reason why there's such panic to generate these additional stimulus plans right now is because they know that the sugar rush will begin to slow.
	Okay.
	All right.
	So we'll see what happened.
	I mean, obviously, it's great to hear different perspectives, but the audience has to make up their minds.
	The one part that was very eye-opening was to say in 07, 08, when the whole Michael Burry big short happened, there was 3.7 million inventory.
	Today's a million.
	That's a very big difference and indicator because you got almost way too much.
	And then $12 million increase in family households.
	You're talking about $12 million from what?
	From $116 million to $128 million was a number, give or take.
	And Patrick, remember, birth rates stayed low from 1973 to 1979, which means you did not have the influx of people coming.
	Yeah.
	And now things have turned a little bit because what's the generation they're saying that's bigger than boomers?
	Is it Gen X or is it millennials?
	Millennials.
	Millennials are bigger than boomers now, 80 million versus 76 million.
	So if that's the case, you're saying real estate is going to continue to rise over the next few years.
	Let's hope it doesn't get too far ahead of itself, but let's say it this way.
	It should be well supported.
	Okay.
	All right.
	Sounds good.
	Let's take a little bit of a different kind of a story.
	So imagine if I make a salary of $174,400, okay?
	Give or take.
	In the last 20, I've had a job.
	This job pays me $174,400 today.
	It was a lot less 25 years ago, but today it pays me $174,000.
	Should I be able to afford to have a $41 million house on Lake Tahoe?
	Let me ask that question one more time.
	I make a salary of $174.
	I've been doing it for about 25 years.
	Should I be able to afford a $41 million house on Lake Tahoe?
	And it wasn't a pass down house from family to me.
	Should I be able to have a house $41 million on Lake Tahoe?
	Only if you're Senator Dianne Feinstein.
	That's right.
	Pull up the picture, guy.
	So Diane Feinstein lists her $41 million Lake Tahoe estate.
	Check this out.
	$41 million.
	If anybody's watching this, they want to make an offer.
	It's right there.
	It's beautiful.
	Okay.
	It's three properties, contains 11 bedrooms, nine bathrooms.
	The compound sits on nearly five acres of land.
	The 172-foot pier extending into the water, check that out.
	Look how beautiful that is.
	This can be yours for simply a $41 million offer.
	I pulled up looking up the richest senators we have in America, richest senators we have in America.
	Number one was Romney.
	Number two was, and Romney, you know, he made his money as an entrepreneur for the longest time.
	He's done well for himself.
	Then it's Senator Mark Warner, which has got a net worth of $215 million.
	And at fourth place, we have Dianne Feinstein, $88 million net worth as of 2018.
	Blum Capital, private equity firm founded in 1975 by her husband, Richard Blum, is a source of most of the wealth.
	There you have it.
	$41 million home.
	And the hotel chain that they made their money in, too.
	The husband and wife.
	Yes.
	Hotel chain is how they made their money.
	I mean, listen, more power to them.
	Reality of it is there are $40 million homes in the market right now, and people are buying them.
	You know, right here, another house just some guy, some Saudi oil guy just put his penthouse for sale in New York for $174 million after he bought it seven, eight years ago for $86 million.
	Did you hear what I just said?
	$86 million penthouse he bought, he's got in the market right now for $174 million.
	In where?
	New York?
	In New York.
	$174 million townhouse.
	Not townhouse.
	What do you call it?
	Penthouse he's got for sale.
	So it's not a bad time to be in the real estate market, especially the high-end, because they're selling for more than ever.
	But again, congratulations to Diane.
	We hope you get the offer you're expecting, get a bunch of cash offers.
	We're rooting for you, Diane.
	It is what it is.
	Somebody's got to do it.
	Okay.
	Did you see the game yesterday?
	Clippers against.
	Are you a basketball guy or not really?
	Clips played the Suns last night.
	More baseball, football.
	More baseball.
	A bunch of guys were wearing masks.
	Apparently, this mask thing is coming back to LA.
	LA urges everyone to start wearing masks again indoors as Delta variant spreads.
	This is an LA Times story, which is not in there.
	This just came out.
	More than three in five Californians have gotten at least one vaccine dose to date, but fewer than half are truly vaccinated, fully vaccinated.
	According to the data from U.S. Centers for Disease and Control and Prevention, California has one of the nation's highest vaccination rates, and that has many experts confident that the Delta strain won't cause the kind of COVID-19 surges seen over the last year.
	I was watching a Clippers game, and I'm seeing who's the center for the Clips.
	Who's the big guy, Zubak, who's got a bit of an injury?
	He's got this mask on on the sidelines.
	That was the biggest mask I've ever seen.
	I'm looking at all the fans.
	Fans don't have any masks on.
	The Clippers have masks on, and players are not putting masks on.
	I get a message on Instagram saying, you know, California is back on putting masks on.
	What do you think about this mask situation right now in California?
	California, to be specific, they've obviously overreacted to some of this.
	I mean, you have a state like Florida, which did not have mask mandates, and you come here and kind of do what you want to do.
	California and No difference in rates, by the way, of disease.
	Right.
	Well, yeah, that's true.
	Well, New York is obviously way worse than California, from what I understand.
	They don't even put masks on.
	They put like scarfs on, masks on.
	It's just, you know, different strokes for different folks at the end of the day.
	It's so weird because you go to the games, the people in the crowd doesn't wear a mask, but then when you're playing, you don't have to wear a mask.
	When you go to the band, you put on the mask, and then some people do the old, I just put it over my mouth, but not over my nose.
	And some people keep it under their neck.
	And then some people like have worn the same mask for the last 12 months.
	They haven't replaced the mask.
	The mask clearly is like old and rotten and dirty.
	There's just no uniformity of the mask thing.
	There's only one visual that makes sense to me.
	It's only one visual.
	And it's the same it was a year and a half ago as it is today.
	When I see Tyron Liu wearing a mask while he's doing an interview with ESPN on Zoom.
	On Zoom by himself.
	I'm telling you, that's like wearing a condom going to sleep with no one to have sex with.
	Like you just have a condom on for no reason.
	I mean, what are you doing with that?
	It makes no lot.
	These are smart people.
	Like, okay, I'm looking at the Zoom.
	How the hell can I get the virus from you on the Zoom?
	Or the people driving in their car without the money?
	That's a classic one.
	That's some good technology.
	Those I take pictures of.
	I mean, I like to take pictures with those guys and selfies because it's a league of their own is what they got going on for this world.
	That's like wearing a seatbelt when you're walking.
	Yeah, it makes no sense.
	No, you got, you're parked, okay, on a phone call.
	You're making a phone call to somebody, and you put your seatbelt on.
	Like, let me put my seatbelt on before we talk on the phone.
	Like, there's certain logic that just makes zero sense.
	These are people you would hook.
	These are people you would, you know, make fun of, but today it's seen as responsible.
	You both made points that made me think about a story that you were talking about, too, and that's what's going on with teaching the FAA individuals, TSA individuals, rather, more self-defense.
	And I think this is a result of since January 1st, there's been 3,000 incidents of unruly passengers.
	But when you look into it, it's all mask compliance.
	And it's frustrating because I fly a lot.
	There's no uniformity, as you said.
	Some flight attendants are pretty reasonable about it.
	Some, it's like, boy, it is like really super dictatorship.
	It's like they finally got this power and they could be mean and nasty and whatever.
	And look, I know it's not an easy job for them.
	Okay, so I respect that.
	But why don't you just make it so that if you're vaccinated, get a vaccine, right?
	If you're vaccinated, why do you need to wear a mask?
	Or why do you need to prove it?
	You want to take a risk on your own, take a risk on your own.
	Some people, as you said, have sex without protection, right?
	So they take their risks.
	They know what they're doing.
	Oh, that's fine if you're going to take the risk of having sex without protection.
	My worry is people that don't have a sex partner who are wearing condoms.
	Oh, yeah.
	That's my worry.
	I'm not worried about those guys.
	That's to each his own.
	That's a libertarian word.
	It's practicing safe sex.
	That's very, very safe.
	I understand that part.
	It's really the key word, practicing.
	So I think that when you look at it, you would say, look, if you have a concern, wear a mask.
	Yeah.
	I think that's what people are doing.
	They keep moving the goalposts.
	You wear a mask, you don't wear a mask.
	If it's up to you, individual liberties.
	You're on a plane.
	You have to wear a mask.
	But when you take a sip of the water, you get to take the mask off.
	And if you're eating a snack, you can take the mask off.
	How many times have people went to eat something and then boom, your mask is on?
	Boom.
	Now I got pasta on my face.
	By the way, did you hear what's his name?
	What's the place we always talk about, Kai?
	Tulu.
	The country, no, the country that is low regulation.
	Entrepreneurs are living there.
	Singapore.
	Singapore.
	You know what Singapore said with COVID?
	Moving forward.
	Have we seen this data or no?
	Pull up Singapore COVID flu.
	Just type in Singapore COVID flu.
	Just put COVID flu.
	Okay, let me see if it shows up.
	Kai, I was just about to give you credit for spelling things right.
	Looks like live virus.
	Okay, right there.
	Go to South China Morning Post.
	Yeah, right there.
	Click on that.
	Singapore preparing to live with endemic COVID-19 as residents grow battle wary of pandemic.
	So what Singapore is now doing is the following.
	Singapore is officially treating the COVID as flu, meaning it's no longer as a big deal.
	Look, go back to your life, do what you were doing.
	No longer the over-regulatory stuff that they're going to.
	Anyways, I mean, you see what's going on in Florida.
	We ended up in Florida.
	You see what's going on in Texas.
	Texas was a great place to be while you were during COVID.
	Business didn't take a massive hit.
	You saw what happened in a couple of these states.
	California is apparently still going back to what it was before.
	It's so.
	Even after all the people got the vaccinations.
	It's also easy to do the Monday morning quarterback thing with COVID.
	When this first happened, and I'm not trying to be political or anything like that, no one ever seen anything like this in the last hundred years.
	So you don't know the severity of it.
	Should we wear a mask?
	Should we social district?
	Should we not?
	We didn't have a vaccine a year ago.
	The vaccine came out towards the beginning of the year.
	Now people are getting vaccinated.
	So the story keeps evolving.
	The story keeps changing.
	Fauci said, you don't need to wear a mask and you need to wear a mask.
	It's, I think people, the problem here in America is that it got so politicized that if you, if you're a social distancing fan and you believe in masks, that means you're a Democrat.
	But if you're not, then you're a Republican.
	And if you're a Republican, you don't wear the mask.
	And it's just such a moving situation.
	There's moving targets that this is where it just comes down to individual liberty.
	Patrick, by the way, just to go back for a second, my son, Jake, who's a really big fan of yours, and he ran the numbers for me.
	He said that home we were looking at for $500,000, a little less than $500,000, if you paid $60,000 over asking price, it would take you 25 months to break even.
	So that might be a bet you might want to take.
	It would take you 20 years.
	25 months to break even.
	If I pay $560 for that $4.99.
	In 25 months, that home would be worth $560,000.
	I mean, maybe you can go either way on it, but if you said, I'm going to be there for 10 years, it's not a bad gig.
	And remember, it might take you two or three months to close.
	So you reduced that a little bit.
	2 months.
	Yeah, that's what you're saying.
	You can do the math.
	But that's how people should be thinking.
	By the way, by the way, the question becomes: how many realtors are selling the way you just sold right now?
	Because by the way, you don't benefit from anything.
	You don't sell loans.
	You don't sell homes.
	So it's not like.
	We provide the tools like this for realtors.
	Which is different story, but you're not selling.
	No, I'm not selling.
	So you're not selling a house.
	You don't have a house on a market.
	You just say, come and look at this $10 million house.
	Maybe you're representing Diane Feinstein's house in Lake Tahoe.
	By the way, you're not, though, right?
	So the point is: the point is, today's realtor, imagine a realtor today saying, Adam, how long are you going to live in this house?
	10 years.
	Then don't worry about it.
	This $500,000 house is going to be $560,000 in two years.
	You're fine.
	Buy the house.
	Make an offer for $60,000 more.
	Think about the way the realtor has to sell the clients today.
	Patrick, it's a different sale.
	I think in life, what we want to try and do is if we think linearly, right?
	One, two, three, four, five.
	Yeah.
	And we grow that way versus exponentially.
	What we need to do is if you could find points of friction all over.
	If you remove a point of friction like this, you will grow exponentially.
	It's not just in this problems like this all over.
	This is a big point of friction.
	You come up with a solution, your business grows.
	Let's talk about what happened in Miami.
	The travesty, the catastrophic event that took place where they found nine dead, 152 unaccounted for for a Florida condo tower collapse.
	Go to page four it is on what happened here.
	It was all over the news, and obviously we're down here, so we're hearing about it constantly.
	Search and rescue operations continued Sunday evening nearly for four full days after Champlain Tower South partially collapsed in Surfside, Florida.
	Nine people are confirmed dead, 152 unaccounted for.
	As search and rescue operations continue Sunday evening, almost four days after a 12-story condominium building collapsed in Florida.
	Champlain South Towers, Tower South partially collapsed Miami Beach.
	The families are missing.
	We're allowed to privately visit the site for the first time Sunday, according to Miami Date.
	Mayor Levine Caba on Saturday, Levine Calva on Saturday, ordered a 30-day audit of all residential properties, five stories or higher, that are 40 years or older and fall under the county's jurisdiction.
	The mayor encouraged cities to do their own building reviews as well.
	Okay.
	Adam, you had a chance to go visit this.
	What's it looking like there right now?
	Well, Kai, can you pull it up so people can see the site?
	Yeah, of course.
	This story, I think, broke on Thursday.
	Yep.
	And this story literally and figuratively hits close to home for me.
	Surfside is just north.
	By the way, people sent me the video.
	A friend from years ago sent me the video.
	I looked at the video.
	I thought it was one of those hotels that's coming down.
	You know how they detonate?
	Exactly, right?
	Like, yeah, it's detonated.
	So, no, no, no.
	This is not detonating a property.
	This is actually out of nowhere just coming up.
	Yeah.
	And USA Today does a good way of basically showing what the building was and what it is now.
	And it was matted.
	It's like a third of the building just collapsed.
	So I'm not sure if USA, the graphic that they have.
	Click on that right there.
	Click on that video right there three days ago.
	Yeah, there you go.
	Click on that.
	Can we show this?
	Yeah, we can show this.
	Okay.
	No, that's definitely not a shack.
	But go ahead, keep saying it, and we'll go after this video.
	So, people, just to put it in perspective, this is just basically a mile north of what Miami Beach proper is, right?
	So this is Surfside is in basically the 80s and 90s.
	Just north in the 90s, is what's called Bell Harbor.
	We were at the Bell Harbor Mall a couple months ago.
	St. Regis.
	Exactly.
	All that.
	My sister and my sister's family lives right there in Bell Harbor.
	That's where I go and stay on the weekends and see with my family.
	And I grew up just up the street in North Miami Beach.
	So this is literally close to home.
	And the mayor of Bell Harbor, which is the town basically the next block over, is one of my closest friends, Gabe Grossman.
	He's 40 years old.
	He's got five daughters.
	Talk about a girl dad.
	He's a lawyer.
	He's an attorney.
	He's a pro-Israel, very vocal person like that.
	But he's also the mayor of Bell Harbor.
	Okay.
	He was walking around with Governor DeSantis and just seeing what the hell is going on.
	Here's a video just for the audience to see.
	Look at that.
	Yeah, it's just a scary thought to see that just.
	And then this tower comes down.
	Watch this.
	Yeah.
	So the problem that I have with this, I mean, this is a sad situation.
	I don't know anybody directly that lived there, but a lot of good friends of mine had family there.
	Like I have one, my buddy Jared, he was posting, you know, please pray for these families.
	I text him.
	I said, well, why, do you know these people?
	He said, these are my five cousins who moved here from Puerto Rico.
	They're all dead.
	The problem that I have with the media is when this story came out, and I get that this is a sensitive story, they said, building collapses, one person dead.
	Do you remember that story?
	I do.
	Okay, so one person dead.
	Now they're out there saying nine people are dead, and 150 something are people are unaccounted for.
	What the hell do you mean unaccounted for?
	These people aren't traveling Europe right now, not responding to their cell phone.
	They're dead.
	They're full on dead.
	And the problem that I had is emotionally, you hear this story.
	There's so much in the news right now.
	Oh, one person.
	Oh, thank God.
	Only one person.
	No, every single person in that building just got pancakes.
	If it was unaccounted for, three hours, get it.
	Maybe they're coming back from somewhere.
	What?
	Six hours, get it.
	A week later?
	No.
	Unaccounted for?
	Yes.
	Come on, man.
	Maybe there might be a few.
	That's a scary thought, by the way.
	Yeah.
	So what's really scary is that guy, Thomas Morbito, in 2018, the engineer who gave the warning about this and nothing was done.
	Yes.
	So a crazy interview.
	How often that happens when they give it and nobody goes and looks into it?
	Is that a common thing?
	But here's the problem I have with it: is that you can make the excuse and say, okay, during 2020, maybe they couldn't really do anything with the code.
	But yeah, two years before that, why was nothing done?
	And you talked about this earlier about the majority of houses are 40 years old, 1980, 1981.
	Now, apparently, you're the real estate expert.
	You've taught us a lot today.
	Apparently, there's a 40-year recertification of buildings.
	This building was built in 1981.
	So something was up with this building.
	Something, you know, I don't know how it passed its code.
	I don't know what kind of fraud was going on here.
	I think, number one, focusing on the moment, focusing on the now, cleaning this up.
	But bigger picture, like we're talking about real estate, we're talking about South Florida.
	We're here, is they need to go at every single building that's happening.
	Well, that's where the media said.
	Yes.
	And figure this the hell out.
	Because you also talk about New Yorkers who are moving here in flux.
	We were touching on that earlier.
	A lot of people are looking and saying, you know, I was considering maybe buying a condo in South Florida.
	Maybe I was moving to South Florida.
	I'm not so sure about that now.
	And because, you know, climate change is real.
	It's happening.
	Whether it's man-made or not, I think that's a debate.
	But, you know, there's a rising tides here.
	Imagine living in that building.
	Go back to the picture.
	Imagine you're living in the building right next door.
	Hey, come home, baby.
	Yeah.
	Yeah.
	Hey, I'll see you tonight.
	Like, imagine you're the one that's standing.
	What are you doing if you're you going back?
	Let me go get my stuff upstairs.
	I'm not doing it.
	You go get it.
	How the hell do you sleep at night?
	That's the point.
	Like, if you got kids, are you going to be able to sleep?
	You're not sleeping there.
	You're not sleeping there.
	What do you do with all your stuff?
	It's just up there.
	All your stuff.
	Well, thank God you're alive.
	Number one.
	Thank God you're alive.
	You just gotta.
	Now try reselling that.
	I don't, that's condos.
	Try selling that condo.
	And Adam's point about people being a little skittish.
	I mean, you have to look at age because this was a little bit older, number one.
	And number two, if it's right on the water, you get that corrosive nature of it.
	You know, so maybe if it's a little bit further back, a little less to worry about.
	But this is definitely something that's going to make people think twice about.
	Well, they were basically saying that they went into the garage and they were showing what the hell was going on down there.
	And there were cracks and it's, you know, obviously the pool right there.
	So you look at this and look, we've never seen anything like this.
	It's insane.
	It starts falling from the top and then crack.
	But basically what I understand here is the bottom implodes and then the floor above that falls and then the floor above that, it's like a pancake effect.
	So visually it looks like it's falling from the top, but no, the bottom is crumbling and then each floor, boom, boom, boom.
	So imagine a floor falling on top of you and then the floor on top of that falling on top of you.
	You're not surviving that.
	I mean, it's insane here.
	152.
	I wonder how long it's going to.
	By the way, the whole thing with you're saying is there fraud.
	I don't think it's fraud.
	There's a lot of buildings you go to where the elevator inspection is supposed to be done once every 12 months and you see the inspection.
	Some buildings haven't been done for three or four years.
	It's just a lack of paying attention to details, right?
	That's really all it is.
	You got a lot.
	How many elevators in America haven't been inspected on time today?
	Think about it.
	A lot of them.
	And how many buildings like this do you think they haven't been inspected?
	I bet there's a lot in America that haven't been inspected.
	So think about how many others are sitting there thinking about this saying, well, what about my building?
	Like, how many people went and knocked on their property manager's door and saying, hey, when is the last time we inspected this last week?
	Every single one of those buildings.
	Of course.
	Oh, not just in Miami.
	I tell you, there's a lot of old buildings in America today.
	Tenants are going and saying, hey, Johnny, just out of curiosity, when did we last inspect this building?
	When do we last inspect it?
	It's something to be thinking about.
	And by the way, then a story comes out.
	The tweet, Kai, can you pull up John McAfee's tweet, which was going viral everywhere.
	People are sharing it.
	And John McAfee tweets about the building.
	There you go, about his building.
	So go to images, go to images, and then we'll go to USA Today.
	So there's a tweet that comes out that reads the following.
	Okay.
	Kai, click on one of those so we can see it that's bigger.
	He says, if anything ever happens to me, please know that the 31 terabytes of files I have are located on hard drives in my condo near 88th Street and Collins Avenue, just north of Miami Beach.
	Now, that's June 8th, 2021, right?
	I went and looked it up on Twitter.
	There is no tweet with him saying that.
	So now go to the USA Today story.
	Go back and click on that story.
	It says, fact check, no evidence John McAfee ever owned unit in partially collapsed Florida condo, which who cares whether he owned it or rented it?
	I'm not worried about that.
	What I'm worried about is did he ever tweet that out?
	The claim John McAfee owned the unit and partially collapsed the condominium building in Florida.
	Conspiracy theorists are attempting to connect the death of antivirus entrepreneur John McFee to Florida high-rise building that partially collapsed on June 24th.
	McAfee found it on June 20th execution.
	He was 75%.
	The next day, condominiums in Surfside, Florida collapsed, resulting in at least four deaths and at least 150 people missing.
	The two events are unrelated, but social media users are there's a nefarious connection.
	John McFee owned the unit at the building that collapsed.
	The address of building 8777 Collins Avenue South reads a text message.
	So that leads to AP doing a story on it.
	Associated Press doing a story to respond to this.
	If AP does a story on this, which let me see which one it is.
	It's page four at the bottom.
	Here's what AP says.
	Claim, the late John McAfee, the creator of John McFee anti-virus software, owned the unit in the condo building, partially collapsed Thursday outside Monte Rutherford, was located inside.
	That's a claim.
	AP's assessment, false.
	McAfee was found dead in his jail cell near Barcelona on Wednesday, didn't own the property at the Beachfront Champlain Tower, South Condo in Florida.
	According to the Associate Press Review of Public Records, an image of the tweet in which McAfee claims to own such a property is fabricated at the close of a week.
	That includes the prison death of an eccentric security software pioneer and the collapse of a 12-story oceanfront condominium tower near Miami.
	Social media users hatched false conspiracy theories that bound the two unrelated events together.
	And then they found out that there's a, they found out a note in his pocket in his jail cell that read, what did it read?
	It said there was a note in it.
	You know which one I'm talking about?
	He's swacked and he's a suicide all the Epstein.
	Yeah.
	So apparently they found a note and his wife said, There's no way in the world my husband will commit suicide.
	His last words were, I love you, babe.
	I'll talk to you later.
	So she's like, there's no way this happens.
	So Pat, there's that word again that we're starting to touch on a little bit more and more and more.
	Conspiracy theories.
	Yeah.
	We're starting to touch on this a little bit more.
	And something tells me with this guy, McAfee, eccentric dude, and all the stuff.
	You interviewed the guy and we spent an hour talking about this guy last year.
	He has not watched the interview.
	The interview in the last few days has taken off.
	It's been everywhere.
	Everyone's messaging us.
	What was your thoughts about meeting this guy?
	Look, if the tweet is not up there, you know, June of 08, June 8th of this year, easily you can make a fake tweet and put it out there, right?
	Now, some people are saying, well, what if somebody on Twitter went and deleted it?
	I don't know about that.
	If it did, there'd be plenty of people with screenshots who had it because to say, you know, then there's some people that are saying that 31 terabytes, you should have seen what's in it.
	Because if that reveals itself, then Kai said something very interesting yesterday saying, look, if McAfee is who I think it is, and there's really a lot of credibility behind what was in that 31 terabytes, do you really think he would only have one copy of it in one place?
	No, no one the way he would be.
	He'd probably have five, 10 of them and would have them all over.
	I don't know if he would tell everybody where it is.
	The point is he had some information that people didn't want to have seen what that is in there.
	Some of us will know.
	Some of us will never know.
	Some of us are never going to know what was in Hillary Clinton's emails.
	That was, you know, some of us are not going to know what was in Biden's laptop because the FBI doesn't want to investigate it.
	But there's definitely a little bit of thought of what was really in that 31 terabytes that this guy had.
	I'd be so curious to know what was in it.
	And I'm willing to bet there are millions of others that want to know, was it just the pictures of a bunch of, you know, random crazy files that he had?
	Or is there anything there that the world would want to know about?
	And if it's yes, maybe there is somebody who's a hacker trying to really figure out what was in there.
	There's plenty of professional hackers today that could find a lot of different things.
	Maybe someone's working on something right to the other.
	Let me tell you, this isn't the end of the John McAfee conspiracy theories that are going to run rampant.
	I don't think there's going to be a lot more.
	I heard this, I saw this, but just to be clear, there's no credibility to the story.
	No, no, no.
	The tweet is not out there.
	Snopes, actually, my son Dan just told us.
	We looked up Snopes as well.
	I don't even look at Snopes because Snopes, to me, also has made a lot of mistakes themselves of saying it's false, but it was true.
	If AP's coming out and saying something about it, AP is typically, you know, they got not that, look, we're a customer of them.
	We like doing business with AP.
	But if AP's saying something about it, AP's not even saying the only thing that AP said is the fact that he didn't own it.
	So they want to look at the record, but they're not saying that that's a false claim.
	They're just saying conspiracy theories.
	So who knows what's going to come out?
	I can tell you.
	Like you said, next week, two weeks, three weeks, I'm sure there's going to be more stuff that's going to come out about this year.
	FYI, we have some of the logos.
	Kai, if you want to pull it up, I just want to show the logos.
	We still haven't finalized any one of them.
	A couple of them I like.
	I'm curious to know your thoughts.
	We put numbers right next to them.
	So if you take a look at these logos, whichever one you like, we have to pick a local for the podcast here.
	Kai, can you pull that up so we can show it to the audience?
	And FYI, if you are a graphic designer and you see any designs you want to put for PBD podcast, this is what we currently have right now.
	There's numbers next to it.
	Take a look, see which one you like.
	Put a number next to it.
	We're definitely taking as many feedback as possible.
	But these are some of the ones that people have sent us here for the podcast.
	PBD podcast, the top right one, number 10, it's kind of Florida.
	Number nine is kind of cool with the lion.
	Number seven is the different look.
	Number six is the lion.
	Again, 25 is the mic.
	If there's any of these you like, put the number below.
	We're going to go back and look at them and we're going to narrow it down.
	And again, if you're somebody that's watching this and you know graphic designers, we're going to give the winner $500 for whoever comes out with a podcast logo that we end up using.
	Submit it to us.
	Kai, what's the email to send it to?
	It's actually send it on Twitter and hashtag PBD Podcast because it's the easiest way to track them.
	If you got logos.
	Is there any one or two that kind of stands out on the bottom?
	I like seven.
	Seven's colors.
	Interesting.
	Yeah, that's kind of interesting.
	Old school.
	20 is kind of unique the way 20 is doing it.
	20 caught my eye because that's your face in the mic.
	Is that what it is?
	I just noticed it right now.
	First time.
	Whoever did 20, 20 is kind of, obviously 11, they're doing the same identical thing as our buddy Rogan did, which that's his image.
	But 20 is kind of cool.
	Yeah, I mean, look, again, if you got any others, send it our way.
	We're paying attention to it.
	And thank you to everyone who's actually been submitting these.
	We're reviewing them.
	We're looking at them.
	We appreciate it.
	100%.
	And one of you guys is going to get 500 bucks.
	Last question for you.
	If you would like to see our friend Barry, the real estate expert, if you learned a lot today and you would like to see him have a show with us potentially like Daniel DeMartina Boot, like Adam, like General Spalding, like Tom Ellswort, like some of the folks that we have, if you'd like to see him have a show on value tame and economics, reacting to current events that are taking place with real estate, rates, any of that, click the thumbs up, subscribe to the channel,
	and let us know why we're watching all the commentary because we're having conversations right about potentially doing that.
	When we do that, we'll launch it to everybody.
	You'll be the first to know it when that comes about.
	Having said that, Barry, thank you so much for coming out.
	Thank you, Barry.
	We got his book right here.
	Kai, let's put the link to his book below so if people want to order this book, they can do that as well.
	Money in the streets.
	With that being said, once again, take care, everybody.
	Have a great week.
	We'll do this again Thursday.
	We have a special guest, I believe, this Thursday.
	This Thursday, cannot tell you who, but I think you're going to like it.
	We have a potential California person that's running for governor with us here this Thursday.
	Do not miss this Thursday's podcast.
	It will be fired.

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