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Thank you. | |
Americanism, not globalism, will be our credo. . | ||
It's going to be only America first. | ||
America first. | ||
The American people will come first once again. | ||
With respect to respect that we deserve. | ||
From this day forward, it's going to be only America. | ||
America first. America first. America first. America first. America | ||
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first. America | |
first. America first. America | ||
first. America first. America first. America first. America first. America first. America first. | ||
Thank you. | ||
Good evening, everybody. | ||
You're watching America First. | ||
My name is Nicholas J. Fuentes. | ||
We have a great show for you today. | ||
Lots to get into, lots to discuss. | ||
It's going to be a big show. | ||
Our featured story today, we're talking about this speech by the leader of Hezbollah, Nasrallah, and he gave a Huge, highly anticipated address, his first speech since the Al-Aqsa flood operation began last month, and it was pretty disappointing. | ||
Not gonna lie, I didn't like it. | ||
Not happy about it. | ||
Everybody was expecting that he would declare war on Israel on behalf of Hezbollah, but he didn't. | ||
He didn't declare war on Israel or escalate the conflict at all. | ||
And everybody's analyzing the speech. | ||
All our guys, all the pro-Palestinian people, all the Muslims, they're all coping really hard right now. | ||
They're like analyzing the speech. | ||
They're like, no, you don't get it. | ||
This was a really surgical speech. | ||
It wasn't surgical. | ||
There's no declaration of war. | ||
This sucks. | ||
And honestly, It's over. | ||
Israel won. | ||
It's done. | ||
They perfectly outmaneuvered the forces of Islam, which is a huge disappointment. | ||
They let us down. | ||
So I'll tell you what I mean by that. | ||
We'll talk all about the speech and that situation and Related to that, we'll also be talking about Secretary Antony Blinken's visit to Israel. | ||
They very quickly put out a statement this afternoon, or rather this morning, and said that the United States stands with Israel and they've secured humanitarian relief for Gaza. | ||
Israel has said there will be no ceasefire. | ||
And maybe the biggest story of all is where all of this is leading, which is if there is no ethnic cleansing of Gaza completely, you're going to be hearing a lot of talk soon about the day after. | ||
You'll hear that phrase a lot, the day after. | ||
And this is the contingency plan. | ||
What happens after this operation is over and the Hamas leadership is decapitated? | ||
Who will govern the Gaza Strip? | ||
And what is that going to look like when Israel's operation is finished? | ||
That's the discussion now. | ||
And the United States and Israel are discussing and They're suggesting that there will be a coalition Arab government or maybe a United Nations peacekeeping force and they will administer Gaza after Hamas is gone and it's going to be all the Abraham Accords countries. | ||
So like Morocco and Bahrain and the Emirates and Qatar. | ||
They say Turkey may be involved as well, Jordan, and all these Arab countries are going to come together, at least this is what the United States is talking about at this point, and they're going to build a government there. | ||
But what this suggests is that there will be no confrontation between the Muslim world and Israel, which is honestly what we need. | ||
We need Israel to be confronted with some finality. | ||
By Iran and Syria and the axis of resistance in Iraq and Yemen and Lebanon. | ||
We need that to happen. | ||
That would be good. | ||
That would be good for us. | ||
That would be good for the people on the opposite side of the Talmudic Jewish Israel. | ||
But it's not, it looks like it's not going to happen. | ||
The Israeli offensive is moving forward slowly. | ||
Just enough humanitarian aid is trickling in to Satisfy the Muslims to placate them. | ||
And so because it's going so slowly and because they're letting in this trickle of aid, it seems like they're avoiding any kind of miscalculation, any tripwire being set off which would trigger Hezbollah or Iran entering the conflict. | ||
And anyway, so we'll get into all that. | ||
I don't want to rush into it, but basically What it appears like at this stage is that they're lowering the temperature significantly. | ||
They're slowing it down, which is bad. | ||
They're slowing it all down. | ||
They slowed it down. | ||
They're lowering the temperature in order that Israel can achieve its operational goals without anything else major happening, without any major event. | ||
or retaliation from the other side because as you know we've talked for weeks about this this chain reaction of events that can be set in motion how both sides are moving their pieces on the board to create this elaborate That to me is the big development here. | ||
we've talked about that and it looks like israel is slowing it all down so that it doesn't it doesn't widen or escalate but they will continue to achieve their goals so there will be no confrontation and that that to me is the uh the big development here and this speech cements that nazarallah hasn't talked since the seventh He comes out. | ||
He doesn't declare war. | ||
And he signals that Hezbollah is extremely disciplined and that it's calibrating its actions very carefully with Israel in sort of a reciprocal way. | ||
And so, no one's jumping the gun here. | ||
Hezbollah's not going to intensify their involvement. | ||
Neither is the Islamic Resistance, these other proxies from Iran. | ||
Iran isn't. | ||
And if that's the case, it means that the Gaza War will continue until Israel achieves all its goals. | ||
No one will stop them. | ||
So, this sucks. | ||
This really sucks. | ||
Big letdown. | ||
Big disappointment. | ||
I rescind my support for Hezbollah. | ||
You know, a few days ago I was like, you know, hell yeah, I'm with Hezbollah. | ||
They got 100,000 soldiers. | ||
They got 100,000 missiles pointed at Israel. | ||
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Let's go. | |
And then their leader comes out and says, we're already at war with Israel. | ||
No, you're not! | ||
This is the stupidest, suckiest, dumbest war ever, and I fucking want my money back, okay? | ||
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And I want my money back. | |
I paid the cost of admission here. | ||
I paid to see some spectacle. | ||
I paid to see Israel confronted by the Muslim world. | ||
And you know what? | ||
It's not happening. | ||
It just isn't happening. | ||
So I rescind my support. | ||
They're not gonna do it. | ||
I rescind my support for the Supreme Leader. | ||
They're not doing it. | ||
And this blows. | ||
So anyway, so we're gonna get into all that. | ||
Maybe you don't really get it yet, but I'll explain what I mean in great detail during this show. | ||
But this is a pretty big inflection point. | ||
This is a pretty momentous event in the conflict. | ||
Because, like I said, for the first three weeks we were waiting for the ground invasion to begin, and then it did. | ||
And we've been monitoring that since last Friday, so full week now. | ||
And then, once the ground incursion began, We were monitoring very closely to see what the response would be from the key players on the other side, from Hezbollah, from the Islamic Resistance, from Iran. | ||
Now we know. | ||
Now we know, and it was a very precise, very careful message, but we know now that both sides have been able to stave off an escalation or any kind of freelancing or miscalculations, and so No tripwires have been set off. | ||
No widening, no escalation. | ||
That's what we know at this point. | ||
And if it hasn't happened by now, and if it didn't happen this morning, then it probably won't happen. | ||
So we move now to the next phase, which is Israel is going to complete their takeover of North Gaza. | ||
The next thing that we're going to watch is whether they will take over the South. | ||
Because they haven't defined their objectives in any concrete way. | ||
They've said they're going to eliminate Hamas. | ||
That's it. | ||
So they've evacuated North Gaza. | ||
They're now moving towards Gaza City. | ||
And so we wait for the fulfillment of that part of their tactical objective and then it remains to be seen whether they will continue the advance or whether they will begin to Talk about some sort of coalition administration that will take the reins from Hamas and the whole operation will be over. | ||
And then we can talk about the aftermath. | ||
But that's really where we are. | ||
So, that's just this little brief intro here. | ||
But we'll get into all that. | ||
Before we do, I want to remind you to smash the follow button here on Cozy to get a push notification whenever I go live. | ||
Also, follow me on Rumble. | ||
And make sure you follow me on both because all the replays are on Rumble. | ||
So we have a year's worth of shows on Rumble and a lot of the monologues are cut up and clipped and posted if you don't like, if you don't want to watch the whole thing, you can watch a 20 minute segment. | ||
So check it out on Rumble and Cozy. | ||
Also follow me on Telegram, the link is down below. | ||
And with that, we'll dive in. | ||
It's a morning show. | ||
It's so funny, you know, last night I told you, I said, two nights ago, I said, hey, this show is going to be on time. | ||
And it's later than it was on Monday, somehow. | ||
And the show is now happening 15 hours after the scheduled start time, which is a little ridiculous. | ||
But we're here. | ||
But we're here, we're doing the show, and I don't know what my plans are tonight. | ||
I may do a show tonight, I may not. | ||
At this point, the show is so late, it may be easy to do it now at 9 o'clock, because now, 9 o'clock PM, Closer on the on the opposite side, you know now that I'm 15 hours late. | ||
The show is now closer to Being 9 p.m. | ||
The next day the 9 p.m. | ||
The day that the show is actually supposed to happen So maybe the show has this sort of migrated and it will line up perfectly like like a solar eclipse You know the orbit of the show Which is completely different than the orbit of the Moon around the Sun, or the rotation of the Earth. | ||
It's now lining up in a different way, and now the show's start time will align with 9pm the next day. | ||
It will be a full 24 hours late, which will make it not late at all. | ||
It'll make it early. | ||
Soon the show will be 7 p.m., 8 p.m., 9 p.m. | ||
and the cycle will start all over again. | ||
Another seven-year cycle will initiate and we'll go all the way around. | ||
So anyway, anyway! | ||
But let's get into it. | ||
Let's dive into the show. | ||
It's a very, very important day in the conflict and so I'll give some background first. | ||
So you can understand the significance of today, because this is now a totally new chapter in the conflict. | ||
This is a major inflection point in the war in Gaza. | ||
And so, we have to go back to the beginning. | ||
As you know, on October 7th, Hamas, in the Gaza Strip, invaded Israel. | ||
And it's now been confirmed by the speech today by the leader of Hezbollah, Nasrallah, that there was no involvement or even prior knowledge of Iran or Iran's proxies. | ||
So the speech today and other statements that have been made by the supreme leader of Iran have confirmed that Hamas acted secretly and independently with the Al-Aqsa flood operation on October 7th. | ||
So we know that it was a few thousand elite forces from Hamas. | ||
They secretly and quietly planned their invasion without the order or instruction or even warning Iran or the other forces and they invaded Israel. | ||
And we know now that the purpose of this, as Nasrallah said today, is that it was by Palestinians for Palestinians. | ||
This was meant to upset the normalization of Israel among its Arab neighbors. | ||
The background to the Al-Aqsa flood operation on October 7th is that the Biden administration with Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, had been building on the Abraham Accords under the Trump administration to normalize ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel. | ||
And a normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel would effectively integrate Israel into the Middle East. | ||
If Saudi Arabia normalizes, this is a huge domino to fall. | ||
All the Gulf states would follow. | ||
Presumably Iraq may follow. | ||
Other countries would follow. | ||
And what this would do is rather than Israel being isolated since 1948, it would then isolate Iran and Syria. | ||
They would be the only two countries in the region that would not have this formal or de facto peace and formal relations with Israel. | ||
So the Palestinians, and specifically Hamas in Gaza, invaded Israel to blow up the normalization of Israel because if all these countries normalize ties with Israel without a resolution to the Israel-Palestine conflict, it effectively means that Palestine no longer has a seat at the table. | ||
If Israel has a patron in the United States, And if all of Israel's Arab neighbors have now accepted Israel into the community of nations in the region, then the Palestinian question becomes a domestic concern of the Jewish state in Tel Aviv. | ||
In other words, it's no longer the concern of Egypt or Saudi Arabia or Jordan. | ||
There will be no intervention from powerful or rich Arab states, and those Arab states can't use their leverage over Washington. | ||
So the Palestinian question would then be left to the most maximalist and aggressive and expansionist Jewish government. | ||
And when I say Jewish, I mean it's really a Jewish nationalist regime that's in control of the Israeli government. | ||
And that would be it for Palestine. | ||
If you leave it to the maximalist Jewish regime of Netanyahu in Israel, there will be no Palestinian state, they will have no leverage, they will have no seat at the table, they will not have powerful intervention or rather intercession from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, or anybody else, and that would be it. | ||
That would close the chapter and turn the page on the Palestine issue. | ||
It would remain to be finished by Israeli settlers in the West Bank and ultimately by the IDF in the Gaza Strip. | ||
So that is what set the stage for the conflict, as has now been confirmed. | ||
Iran didn't instruct this and apparently Hezbollah had nothing to do with it. | ||
It was Hamas acting independently to disrupt the normalization and they did so striking out at Israel to basically put the Palestinian question back on everybody's radar. | ||
Everyone was ready to move past. | ||
The Palestinian question including Washington including Riyadh including all the Arab countries they were ready to let Israel finish them off. | ||
And when the Palestinians attack Israel, it prevents any of that from going forward. | ||
Now, the Saudi-Israel deal is on ice and may never happen. | ||
It certainly won't happen anytime soon. | ||
It's even disrupted some of the Abraham Accord relationships. | ||
Bahrain, which normalized ties with Israel under the Abraham Accords in 2020, has now severed diplomatic ties with Israel. | ||
So, not only will it not go forward, it's actually moving backwards. | ||
That was the purpose of it. | ||
So they went in, they killed all the Israelis, they shocked the world. | ||
Israel very quickly introduced a blockade and they were prepared to invade Gaza approximately one week after the initial al-Aqsa flood operation. | ||
That was stalled by the United States and by Hezbollah. | ||
Hezbollah mobilized on the border of Israel. | ||
And Iran threatened that its other proxies in Iraq and Yemen may strike Israel if Israel went in and killed lots of civilians. | ||
So this is where we talk about... That's sort of the background. | ||
And then after the Al-Aqsa flood operation, we saw all these pieces being moved into the region. | ||
To introduce balance and counterbalance. | ||
Hamas invaded Israel and they basically achieved their mission on day one because they disrupted the integration and the normalization of Israel in the region. | ||
They made the entire world look at Palestine. | ||
So mission accomplished. | ||
But then the war began and Israel threatened to move in and absolutely wipe out Hamas And to decimate the civilian population and infrastructure in Gaza as well. | ||
They were stopped from doing this because Hezbollah, which has 100,000 fighters, four times as many as Hamas, and 150,000 missiles, and potentially an arsenal that we don't even know how sophisticated it actually is, they threatened to mobilize on Israel's northern border. | ||
And Iran, who sponsors Hezbollah, threatened that its proxies in Iraq, which is a popular mobilization force, and its proxies in Yemen, which is the Houthis, that they may also join the fight and attack Israel. | ||
Israel can defeat Hamas in Gaza. | ||
It would be very bloody and very costly and would take a long time. | ||
But they can do it because Hamas is not numerically significant and their technical capabilities are not sophisticated. | ||
They're entrenched, and that's their advantage, but ultimately they could not win a war against Israel. | ||
It would take time and a lot of people would die, but Israel would win. | ||
Israel cannot fight a two-front war against Hamas and Hezbollah. | ||
And they also can't do it while missiles are raining down on them from Iraq and from Yemen. | ||
Because all these proxies are armed with missiles, and Israel only has so many missiles in their Iron Dome system. | ||
They only have so much of a capability to shoot down incoming projectiles. | ||
They can't shoot down every Hezbollah, PMF, Houthi, Hamas rocket that heads to Israel. | ||
Eventually, it would be a bombardment, and civilians would be killed, and infrastructure would be blown up. | ||
So, Iran moves their pieces on the board and they prevent Israel from going in. | ||
And that's really why Israel delayed their invasion. | ||
It was not to secure humanitarian aid, as they said. | ||
Israel delayed their invasion for two weeks. | ||
They planned to go in on the 14th or 15th. | ||
And they delayed it two more weeks after that, not because they wanted to give more time for Palestinians to evacuate North Gaza, but because they knew that they could not handle any kind of intervention from Hezbollah or from Iran's other proxies. | ||
So they stalled in order for the United States to deploy their assets to the region. | ||
So the United States put two aircraft carriers In the Eastern Mediterranean. | ||
They put more F-16 jets in the region. | ||
They deployed 2,000 Marines. | ||
President Joe Biden made a visit. | ||
And all of this was to signal to Iran and to the proxies that if Iran or the proxies got involved that the United States would then attack those proxies and Iran. | ||
And so this was the setup for the past two weeks, two to three weeks. | ||
Basically from that initial delay A week after the Al-Aqsa flood, this was the setup. | ||
And this is where I was talking all about a tripwire for World War III. | ||
With all of these checks and balances in the region, Israel going in on Hamas, Hezbollah going in on Israel, the United States coming in to deter Hezbollah, That was the setup that could have resulted in a wide conflict that could have escalated very quickly. | ||
Israel attacks Hamas, Hezbollah attacks Israel, Israel attacks Iran, Iran attacks Israel, the United States attacks Iran, China and Russia supply Iran, maybe the United States attacks Russia and China. | ||
That was the setup. | ||
Over the past two to three weeks it's been a negotiation and it's been tactics and calibration and trying to work something out where the conflict doesn't go down that route. | ||
That has been the last couple weeks of the show, is watching and waiting for Israel to go into Gaza with the threat of intervention from Iran and waiting to see what that would look like and how they were going to thread that needle. | ||
And so last week, Israel finally went in. | ||
Last Friday, Israel began the invasion of Gaza. | ||
Which again, they had stalled because they were waiting for America to deploy its assets. | ||
And they were essentially waiting for... They were waiting to get the confidence that Iran and Hezbollah would not intervene immediately. | ||
They needed to make sure that when they go into Gaza, they do it in such a way And in such a manner, with some degree of confidence, that it would not trigger an immediate attack, all-out attack on their northern border from Hezbollah. | ||
And we know that because Israel evacuated their northern border. | ||
They evacuated tens of thousands of people from the northern border, and Hezbollah did the same thing in southern Lebanon. | ||
Hezbollah deployed its fighters to the front, Israel deployed its elite fighters to the northern border, not to Gaza. | ||
And both sides did this in anticipation of an all-out war along that border. | ||
So Israel was waiting basically for two weeks to make sure that their incursion would not trigger an immediate all-out war on the northern border. | ||
And so last week they began the invasion, but they did it very, very secretly and very quietly. | ||
As many people reported, first Israel shut off the internet, So that the people in Gaza could not communicate with the world or with each other. | ||
Then they went in with the airstrikes, missile strikes, artillery. | ||
Then they went in with the armor and with the infantry. | ||
And over the past week, they have slowly and surgically taken Gaza slice by slice. | ||
Very, very slowly. | ||
And they've done that not just to minimize civilian casualties, but also, I think, so that they can watch the response from Hezbollah. | ||
If they go in very, very slowly and very carefully, then they don't risk an all-out war. | ||
They can be sort of... | ||
Sensitive to any kind of reaction from Iran or the proxies. | ||
And so that's been the situation for the last week. | ||
We were watching and waiting to see what's Israel going to do in Gaza. | ||
We got our answer last week. | ||
They're going in slowly and it looks like they're coming into Gaza City from three fronts. | ||
From the northwest, the northeast and from the south by cutting a line in the middle of the Gaza Strip to the sea. | ||
We got our answer. | ||
Then there was a speech planned by the leader of Hezbollah for this morning. | ||
That brings us to today. | ||
We're waiting to see what Israel did. | ||
We found out. | ||
Then all eyes were on Hezbollah. | ||
Israel began its offensive. | ||
It continues to kill civilians. | ||
It is not permitting the 100 trucks of humanitarian aid per day into Gaza that the Gazans require and what was agreed to by Blinken and the UN and Netanyahu. | ||
And so all eyes were on Hezbollah to see would they declare an all-out war against Israel with the other Iranian proxies in response to Israel's invasion of Gaza. | ||
Because that's what all the rhetoric suggested. | ||
The Supreme Leader of Iran and other Iranian proxies have said that if Israel continues to bomb Gaza, they would go in. | ||
But Israel has continued to bomb Gaza. | ||
And Iran's proxies have said that if Israel invades Gaza, then the proxies would go to war with Israel. | ||
But Israel did invade Gaza last week. | ||
So everybody was watching to see then what would Hezbollah declare today. | ||
Many anticipated that the leader of Hezbollah would declare war. | ||
But he didn't. | ||
He came out today and said basically that they are already at war with Israel. | ||
That their engagement with Israel constitutes a war. | ||
And it's been very limited. | ||
It's been very limited and very minor. | ||
It's not an all-out war. | ||
It's not an all-out offensive. | ||
They're not using all their capabilities. | ||
And yet they say that's what a war between Hezbollah and Israel looks like. | ||
But that's really a cop-out. | ||
And this is a story from the New York Times talking about the speech. | ||
It says, quote, Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, told his followers on Friday that the group's battles with Israel along its northern border had tied up Israeli forces, giving a boost to Hamas in its fight with Israel in Gaza. | ||
People across the Middle East have been anticipating Nasrallah's speech, his first public comments since Hamas' surprise attack on Israel on October 7th. | ||
For indications of whether Hezbollah would pursue a full-on war with Israel, which would likely spark a regional conflagration. | ||
Hezbollah, a Hamas ally that is also supported by Iran, is committed to the destruction of Israel. | ||
Although Mr. Nasrallah did not discount the possibility of a wider war that would draw Hezbollah and other Iranian militias across the region, his general message was that Hezbollah was already doing enough. | ||
He is a highly respected figure inside the Axis of Resistance, a network of Iranian-backed militias in several Arab countries that share an anti-American, anti-Israeli ideology and have come to coordinate their operations more closely in recent years. | ||
A decision by Hezbollah to launch a full-on war with Israel would likely encourage attacks by its allies in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. | ||
As the Gaza death toll from heavy Israeli airstrikes and ground incursions that began last week has risen into the high thousands, Hezbollah and Israel have clashed along the Israel-Lebanon border, targeting each other's positions and killing combatants on both sides. | ||
But analysts say that Hezbollah and Israel so far appear to be calibrating their actions to avoid setting off a broader war. | ||
And so what has effectively happened here is that Hezbollah has blinked. | ||
Both Iran and Hezbollah have totally backed off in this game of chicken. | ||
They have threatened for weeks that if Israel keeps bombing Palestine, they will intervene. | ||
If they don't open a humanitarian corridor, they will intervene. | ||
If there's no ceasefire, they will intervene. | ||
If they go in, they will intervene. | ||
But Israel has done all of that. | ||
They have bombed Gaza for four weeks now. | ||
They have not allowed the requisite humanitarian aid to come through. | ||
They have not Accepted a ceasefire, nor have they been open to negotiating one. | ||
And as of last week, they have invaded Gaza and raised the Israeli flag inside the Gaza Strip. | ||
And now, the leader of Hezbollah gives the highly anticipated speech and says, Oh, war? | ||
We're already at war. | ||
We're already at war with Israel. | ||
But it's not a war. | ||
It's extremely limited and extremely low intensity. | ||
It's small casualties and minor engagements. | ||
It's not a full-scale war. | ||
And he also sounded like he has not set any kind of parameters or conditions for Hezbollah to intervene in any kind of wider or fuller capacity. | ||
So what this signals, we basically have our answer now. | ||
That the conflict will not escalate. | ||
We needed to see what Israel would do, ultimately what its response to the initial Al-Aqsa flood operation would be. | ||
And the response is to totally occupy northern Gaza, so far. | ||
That's what they're beginning to do. | ||
Then we were looking for Hezbollah to see what their response to Israel's invasion would be. | ||
And their response is effectively no response. | ||
No escalation. | ||
They're not declaring war. | ||
They're extremely disciplined. | ||
They appear to be matching what Israel is doing. | ||
When Israel attacks military positions in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah responds in kind, proportionately, attacking military installations in northern Israel in a tit-for-tat, low-intensity way. | ||
So there is no real response from the proxies or from Iran. | ||
So what is this signal about the future? | ||
Well, it means that apparently Iran and its proxies are going to allow Israel to take over northern Gaza. | ||
Because that's what Israel is doing. | ||
Now, Israel has not said what their full plans are for the Gaza Strip. | ||
All they have said is that their objective is to eliminate Gaza. | ||
Or rather, to eliminate Hamas. | ||
Which they have not done, and I don't believe they'll be able to do that. | ||
The leaders of Hamas are not even in Gaza. | ||
And Hamas may be more popular than ever in Gaza. | ||
So they've said they're going to eliminate Gaza. | ||
We don't actually know concretely what that means. | ||
Does that mean that Israel will occupy northern Gaza? | ||
Or will they occupy all of Gaza? | ||
Does it mean they will push all the Palestinians out of the region? | ||
Or does it mean that they will just kill any political or military element inside of Gaza? | ||
We don't know. | ||
We don't know what the ultimate plan is in Gaza. | ||
They have not said concretely or with any specificity what their real tactical objective is. | ||
So it could be very big, it could be very small. | ||
So for now what we do know, since they evacuated northern Gaza and since they're encircling it, is that they're going to take over northern Gaza. | ||
We know that much. | ||
So the next thing to watch for is once they take over northern Gaza, which apparently, again, Iran and the proxies will not oppose that, since that much is apparent and since Hezbollah and Iran have backed off, that signals that they are tacitly okay with this. | ||
They're tacitly accepting that this will happen. | ||
They are not attempting to deter Israel from doing that. | ||
They are not confronting Israel over doing that. | ||
Israel is invading northern Gaza, that is underway, and Hezbollah has effectively said that there will be no confrontation over this, although there may be one in the future, and they're making no effort to turn them around. | ||
So the next thing to watch for is what happens after Israel secures Gaza City? | ||
What happens after Israel secures northern Gaza? | ||
Once that is completed, if Israel turns and begins to advance south, then we'll have to turn our attention back to Iran and Hezbollah and see what their response to that will be because that will be a widening of the conflict in a certain way. | ||
If Israel seeks to take over and potentially annex all of Gaza, that's very different from decapitating the leadership in North Gaza. | ||
And so we'd have to wait and see what Hezbollah and Iran's response to that might be. | ||
Would they try to deter that? | ||
Would they confront Israel over ethnic cleansing of the entire Gaza Strip? | ||
That's what we have to wait and see for. | ||
And we'd also have to see what the response would be from the Gulf countries and from Egypt. | ||
What their response to an ethnic cleansing of Gaza would be. | ||
Because they would be the ones accepting all the refugees and administering potentially 2.3 million Palestinian Gazans inside of the Sinai Peninsula. | ||
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And so. | |
But that's later. | ||
So that's where we are in the conflict right now, is that Israel is taking over northern Gaza and apparently everyone is going to sit back and watch them do it. | ||
They're going to continue to attack American military bases in Iraq and Syria to put pressure on the United States. | ||
They will continue the low-intensity, limited engagement on Israel's northern border. | ||
But that's it. | ||
And I said earlier that that's a big disappointment. | ||
And here's why. | ||
Because the endgame is that Whatever the outcome is with Israel replacing Hamas, ultimately it seems that this is not going to change the fundamental calculus in the Arab-Muslim world. | ||
That whether Israel takes over northern Gaza or the entire Gaza Strip, Israel is going to use its leverage in Washington to force the United States to use its leverage among the Arab Gulf countries to go in and clean up Israel's mess. | ||
And basically that process of integrating Israel will continue in the future. | ||
It would seem that since Iran and all these proxies have backed off, And since the Gulf countries are convening a council in two weeks talking about what comes next, what happens the day after Israel defeats Hamas in the Gaza Strip, they're paving the way to resume the Abraham Accords and for the Arab countries in the United States to clean up the refugees, administer some sort of | ||
Replacement government in the Gaza Strip, which is run by some combination of the UN, the United States, and Egypt, or the Gulf countries. | ||
And then that will close the chapter on Palestine. | ||
And Israel will have won! | ||
Israel retains their leverage over the United States. | ||
They're not confronted. | ||
They never back down. | ||
They get everything that they want. | ||
And then they turn their attention to their next target. | ||
It would seem that they will not be challenged on any of this. | ||
Not on the Gaza Strip. | ||
Not when they occupy the West Bank. | ||
Not over their occupation of the Golan Heights. | ||
And all these Arab countries are going to then accept and integrate Israel into the community of nations there after all of that happens. | ||
So, there may not be a dramatic change to the status quo after all. | ||
That's the disappointment here. | ||
In this situation, there could have been a real confrontation where the United States and Israel were both defeated. | ||
Like we talked about a couple weeks ago, it was a big concern that there would be a world war over this. | ||
By the same token, let's game it out. | ||
Let's say that Hezbollah went all in against Israel in this speech. | ||
Let's say that they declared war and Hezbollah went in. | ||
Israel would be completely caught off guard. | ||
They would be under a real existential threat, and it would draw the United States into the conflict, and it would draw Iran in as well. | ||
Probably Israel would strike Iran, they would blow up its centrifuges and maybe its oil refineries, and the United States would intervene against Hezbollah in Lebanon and against Iran as well. | ||
But this would severely diminish the United States because they could not win a long-term war against Iran if they couldn't defeat the Taliban in Afghanistan after 20 years. | ||
And it started 20 years ago when the United States was at the peak of its power. | ||
If they couldn't defeat Afghanistan, if they couldn't defeat Iraq, ultimately, they will not be able to defeat Iran now. | ||
They will not be able to defeat the combined strength of Iran and all its proxies today. | ||
And neither could Israel. | ||
So if we game this out, maybe the United States has an aircraft carrier sunk by Iran. | ||
Maybe there's significant casualties. | ||
The United States can't do a ground invasion of Iran, and if they did, they might lose. | ||
And so this would be a true cataclysmic, catastrophic military and strategic defeat of the United States and its ally Israel. | ||
That would fundamentally change the world order forever. | ||
That would be the last say for the American Empire. | ||
And it would be costly for everybody. | ||
It would be very costly for the Iranians, and for the Lebanese, and the Syrians, and Israel, and the United States. | ||
It would be very bloody, and there would be a real risk of a nuclear war. | ||
But on the other side of it, the United States would be greatly diminished. | ||
And the blame would belong to Israel for dragging the United States into a conflict that totally diminished it and its position in the world stage. | ||
But since that won't happen, it's almost like the status quo may be destined to continue for a very long time. | ||
That Israel will get to do what it wants, and it will drag the United States along to back it up while it does those things. | ||
What's happening right now is Israel is annexing Gaza while the United States is suppressing any kind of response from the entire Muslim world. | ||
That's what's happening right now. | ||
They're annexing Gaza, which normally would incite a pan-Muslim war against Israel. | ||
But the United States is there purely to suppress that. | ||
And we're unilaterally suppressing that while they achieve their aims. | ||
And then, once they finish, the United States will use its bribery and its soft power to get all the Arab countries to come in and clean up the mess and accept Israel and integrate them into the region. | ||
And Saudi Arabia and Egypt, they may be in China's orbit in the near future, but they'll do so accepting Israel. | ||
So in other words, we lose them as puppets. | ||
We lose them as clients of the United States. | ||
We potentially lose them to China, or we're competing with China for them. | ||
But their relationship with Israel is improved. | ||
Israel's becoming richer from those relationships. | ||
And so we wind up putting Israel in the best position they've ever been in from the point of view of land and from their relationships and lucrative trade and financial relationships with their neighbors and it's all come at the expense of us. | ||
We will be blamed for guaranteeing this. | ||
We will instill bad blood in the region for generations for doing this. | ||
We lose potentially these clients to another superpower patron In order to support Israel's ascension, and they'll be put in the center of a trilateral, three-way continental diplomatic, trade, and economic relationship. | ||
So this is not good for the United States. | ||
This whole situation has been very bad for us. | ||
It's similar to Ukraine in that way. | ||
In the sense that our support for Ukraine in the long run will alienate us from Western Europe. | ||
Very much in the same way. | ||
The only difference is that Ukraine will actually lose. | ||
Ukraine will be the biggest loser, unlike Israel. | ||
But our support for Ukraine has alienated us from France, and from Germany, and from Eastern Europe. | ||
It has also weakened us. | ||
The only difference is that Ukraine will not be in a better position. | ||
They're not going to be in great shape. | ||
It's a completely losing battle. | ||
All we're doing is diminishing Russia. | ||
That's the trade-off. | ||
We're alienating our allies, and the trade-off is that we do get to degrade Russia's military a little bit. | ||
In this situation though, we're propping up Israel and they're the big winners. | ||
They win the grand prize, which is they're going to get that economic corridor. | ||
They're going to get the Abraham Accords, which means that investment will pour in from Saudi Arabia and from the Emirates. | ||
Very lucrative deals in this new Silk Road or this new Grand Trade Route that will connect Asia and Europe. | ||
They will be virtually unopposed militarily from the Palestinians domestically or internationally across their border with their Arab neighbors. | ||
And we have weakened our relationship with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, with the populations of these countries in order to achieve that for Israel. | ||
So... | ||
This is a very bad scenario and like I said at the beginning what Israel is doing is they're moving very slowly and very carefully keeping the temperature low. | ||
The temperature was very high and things were moving very quickly four weeks ago and there was the chance that when things are moving quickly and when things are intense like this that Some of the bluster and some of the rhetoric that's meant to deter conflict actually causes conflict. | ||
When Hezbollah and when Iran make these profound threats about going to war with Israel, that's meant actually to contain Israel. | ||
It's actually not meant to signal a willingness to destroy Israel. | ||
All that is meant to do is to deter Israel through the threat of force. | ||
But when things are moving quickly, and when things are intense, and when lots of civilians are dying, there's a chance that those threats can be transformed into strikes. | ||
And so what Israel did by waiting weeks, and by moving in very slowly, is making sure that they can move in without anybody doing anything risky, without any of their adversaries actually | ||
Foolishly striking Israel and creating a conflict that would be very costly for everybody involved And so they're slowly moving in and taking everything that they want In a way where it's predictable in a way where the Muslim countries have backed off some of the most extreme rhetoric and And so now they're just going to do whatever it is they want to do. | ||
Very bad situation. | ||
So I'm very disappointed in Nasrallah. | ||
I'm very disappointed in Iran. | ||
Nobody will stop Israel. | ||
That's really, that's the long and short of it. | ||
Israel takes whatever it wants. | ||
The Jews took over the mandate of Palestine. | ||
They took sovereignty from the British and from the UN partition. | ||
They kicked out the Palestinians. | ||
They took a nuclear arsenal. | ||
They're just taking the West Bank with settlements. | ||
They locked up all the Gazans. | ||
They set up Hamas. | ||
They let Hamas kill them to justify them going in and taking the land. | ||
They're gonna do it now. | ||
And nobody seems to have the balls to confront them. | ||
The United States won't leverage them. | ||
Iran and Hezbollah won't challenge them. | ||
So... | ||
The situation continues to get worse and with each passing year the land of Israel grows and these contracts they have become more lucrative. | ||
The investment that's going to come in from the Gulf States and from this IMEC corridor maybe that'll be delayed by some years or months but it will happen and it will be very lucrative from them for them and all that's going to happen is they're going to continue to strengthen their position so The ultimate confrontation is deferred. | ||
Thanks to Hezbollah and Iran. | ||
Big disappointment. | ||
I was cheering them on because I thought they would really do something, but they just won't. | ||
They won't do it. | ||
They won't make a move. | ||
And that will be their doom. | ||
If Israel's allowed to clean up all these Palestinians, and if they're allowed to neutralize all these Arab countries through the United States, then it's only going to put them in a stronger position relative to Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah. | ||
So I don't know what the thinking is here. | ||
But we'll have to wait now and see what happens in the next phase. | ||
At this point, it's basically inert. | ||
Israel will take North Gaza and we all just have to sit on our hands and wait and watch them do it while they kill as many people as they like. | ||
Hospitals, refugee camps, it doesn't matter. | ||
The United States will shovel the foreign aid money towards them. | ||
And then once they finish, everyone's going to watch and see what Israel decides to take next. | ||
Or if they're finished for now. | ||
And then we'll wait and see if Hezbollah wants to act then. | ||
We'll wait and see if they're gonna issue more empty threats, if they're actually gonna do something. | ||
But right now, looks like they totally pussied out. | ||
Lame. | ||
What a disappointment. | ||
And they all talk about it and they're all, you know, it's so crazy. | ||
They're like, oh, Christians, the Christians are weak. | ||
The Christians let their countries get taken over. | ||
You're getting pushed around. | ||
You guys have missiles and air defense and you got a million people ready to die for Allah. | ||
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And you just backed off. | |
They just totally backed off. | ||
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Gay. | |
We wanted to see something cool happen here, but it didn't happen. | ||
Maybe another day, but I don't think so. | ||
I don't think they have it in them. | ||
I don't think they want it bad enough. | ||
I don't think they have it in them to go to war with Israel. | ||
They go and give a speech and say, Israel is so weak. | ||
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Really? | |
Then go to war with them! | ||
Oh, you won't? | ||
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So, anyway. | |
That's that. | ||
Giant, giant disappointment. | ||
You'd think Hezbollah is hardcore. | ||
Everybody talks about they pushed him out in the 80s. | ||
They pushed him out in 2006. | ||
Yeah, well, clearly they're not very confident in their abilities. | ||
And I see all these Muslims on Twitter. | ||
They're like, no, no, they didn't pussy out. | ||
They gave a very precise and surgical speech. | ||
He was very careful. | ||
To lay out, and he didn't lay out shit. | ||
Everyone expected him to declare war to destroy Israel, and that didn't happen. | ||
The rest doesn't matter. | ||
People say, well he's going to say this and he's going to say that, and oh, his comment on this was really interesting. | ||
No, it's not interesting! | ||
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He didn't declare war on Israel! | |
So, you know, it's all shit, okay? | ||
So the rest doesn't matter. | ||
That's what we were expecting, that's what we were looking for, and it wasn't there. | ||
So the rest of it doesn't matter. | ||
Oh, he talked about the martyrs and he read a verse from the Koran. | ||
Yeah, so does everybody on Twitter. | ||
So is our friend Suleiman, you know? | ||
But Suleiman doesn't have 150,000 missiles pointed at Israel. | ||
So, yeah. | ||
Lame speech. | ||
They said in a word, we are going to stand back and watch as Israel takes northern Gaza and as they kill refugees and civilians. | ||
And they're saying, well, we'll wait. | ||
If we see something really bad, then maybe we might intervene. | ||
Okay. | ||
Can't wait. | ||
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I mean, what are we doing here? | |
What's even the point? | ||
Why do we have Houthis and a popular mobilization force and Hezbollah? | ||
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I mean, what is the point of all this? | |
Lame. | ||
What are we waiting for? | ||
Honestly, what are we waiting for? | ||
We're waiting for Iran to develop a nuclear missile? | ||
I mean, maybe. | ||
Pakistan's already got them. | ||
So... | ||
I'm disappointed. | ||
I'm let down. | ||
Nothing ever happens. | ||
Thank God for Putin. | ||
If it wasn't for Putin, nothing would ever happen. | ||
At least Putin went in. | ||
We hear all the time about China's gonna take Taiwan. | ||
Oh, Nigeria and ECOWAS are gonna go into Niger and on and on and on. | ||
Putin was the only one who had the balls to do it. | ||
Putin just went in, man. | ||
They're like, you can't do it. | ||
There'll be a nuclear war. | ||
But the United States will get involved. | ||
And Putin said, I bet. | ||
We'll go to war forever. | ||
We'll go to war. | ||
Oh, you took all our money? | ||
We don't care. | ||
McDonald's left the country? | ||
We'll just change the name. | ||
We'll change the name. | ||
The quality will get better. | ||
Russia has that dog. | ||
Putin's got that dog in him. | ||
He invaded, he put 100,000 troops on the border, and they weren't there just to tweet verses of the Koran. | ||
They were there to kill Ukrainians. | ||
They were there to go in and take land for Russia. | ||
They were there to win a patriotic struggle. | ||
Unlike Hezbollah. | ||
Hezbollah's over there launching bottle rockets, tweeting verses of the Koran. | ||
And if Israel keeps going, we're gonna do it. | ||
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If they launch one more bomb, I mean two more, three more bombs, then we'll go in. | |
Then we're coming in with the full might of Allah's army. | ||
We just... Later, just not yet. | ||
They haven't satisfied all the conditions. | ||
So, I'm very disappointed. | ||
I'm very unimpressed. | ||
What are we waiting for? | ||
I mean, what if it's Lebanon, southern Lebanon, these people are in the middle of like an economic catastrophe. | ||
The country's been decimated by Israel over the years. | ||
What are we waiting for? | ||
A better life here? | ||
Why don't you go put it all on the line? | ||
You know, you got to roll out there and just. | ||
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Whatever. | |
Not my fight. | ||
It's not my fight. | ||
People say, well why don't you go fight there? | ||
It's not my fight. | ||
I'm not Lebanese. | ||
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I'm not Iranian. | |
I'm not one of these people that's talking about, you know, death to Israel and all that. | ||
That's you guys. | ||
That's you guys over there. | ||
I'm in the fight over here. | ||
So, yeah, I don't know, man. | ||
They talk a big game, but they can't back it up. | ||
And Ben Shapiro wins! | ||
Ben Shapiro gets to tweet all day and say, Hezbollah is afraid of Israel. | ||
And you know what? | ||
It's like, we can't even say shit. | ||
They won this. | ||
Netanyahu and Shapiro, they all win. | ||
Do you know how mad that makes me? | ||
Do you know how smug they must be right now? | ||
They're like, Hezbollah wouldn't dare mess with Israel. | ||
It's like, yeah, because America has aircraft carriers there, but go off. | ||
But they're right! | ||
But they're right! | ||
You just made Ben Shapiro so smug, this chicken hawk gets to tweet all day about how Israel's the bravest, mightiest, whatever. | ||
So that's why it really bothers me now. | ||
It's like you just gave the Jews, you emboldened them a million fold with this. | ||
They backed off. | ||
You can't threaten and then back off like this. | ||
This is their Bud Light moment. | ||
This is their red line. | ||
This is their Barack Obama red line moment. | ||
It's the end for Iran and the region. | ||
Very disappointing. | ||
Anyway, so that's that. | ||
That's the latest. | ||
But we'll be watching and we'll see what happens next. | ||
I'm probably not going to cover the Gaza War as much after this because it's not hot anymore. | ||
They've cooled it off to their advantage. | ||
So the day-to-day is going to be very slow now. | ||
Israel will be taking Gaza block by block, piece by piece, very slowly and carefully. | ||
There is apparently no threat of escalation. | ||
There is no threat of confrontation from Hezbollah and Iran. | ||
And so we await the completion of Israel's immediate military objectives, which they've not said, but which are apparent, which is the taking of Gaza City. | ||
And it will become interesting again when they finish that, and then they'll either turn south or they will go back home. | ||
And the conversation will be about administering Gaza with some sort of multinational coalition. | ||
um But that's where we are now. | ||
So, that's your Gaza War. | ||
Boo! | ||
This sucks! | ||
Muslims talk a big game, but what's the story here, man? | ||
Looks like they're just gonna lose this one. | ||
Looks like they're just gonna take the L, and then once Israel's finished, Saudi Arabia is gonna patch it up with them, and they're gonna build their corridor, and the China money is gonna flow in there. | ||
And Israel will become the richest country in the world and the protocols will be fulfilled. | ||
It's literally that simple. | ||
So, anyway, that's that. | ||
I want to move on. | ||
We're gonna take a look at our Super Chats. | ||
We'll see what you guys have to say about all this. | ||
Are you disappointed? | ||
Are you as disappointed as I am? | ||
Because damn, I wanted to see something cool. | ||
All right, but let's take a look. | ||
We'll see what you guys have to say on all this. | ||
Let me get set up with my Super Chats here. | ||
But yeah, real bummer. | ||
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Okay. |