As the results have trickled in, it's a little more clear that Joe Biden is on path to win the presidential election over Donald Trump. Jared Yates Sexton and Nick Hauselman discuss the lengths the Trump administration will go to thwart ballot counting and what legislating will look like under a Republican Senate and Democratic House.Â
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This is an extremely flammable situation and the president just threw a match into it.
He hasn't won the states.
Nobody is saying he's won the states.
The states haven't said that he's won.
Hey everybody, welcome to the Muckrig podcast.
I'm Jared Yates-Eyestone.
I'm here as always with Nick Halseman.
We are taping a podcast that we did not want to tape.
It's unfortunate that we have to tape this podcast, but I have to tell you I would much rather be hanging out with Nick Halseman than nearly anybody else on this day.
We are also joined by our patrons from patreon.com slash muckrake podcast who are watching this be recorded live at the end of this podcast.
We'll be featuring some of their questions.
So if you want to get in on future endeavors like this, please do so in the meantime.
It is November 4th, 2020, the day after the presidential election.
Last night was a rollercoaster of emotions, Nick, and I want to go ahead and before we get into what is happening and break it down and really start to bring some reason to the madness, I feel like you had an evening last night.
Yeah, it was a good dichotomy between you and I, I suppose.
And I feel a lot better.
I took a hot shower and reflected a little bit better.
And yeah, it certainly looks a lot better than it did last night.
And there's certainly more paths for Biden to win, as they always were.
And certainly I think that finally what got through to me was when we really just went through what we expected to happen before the day started.
You know, we're pretty much in that same, you know, boat as we were then.
And that kind of made me feel like, okay, that's where we expect it to be.
Whether it's going to be razor thin or not, electoral college vote wise or not, you know, it's in the position where we thought he'd be.
So the fear and the tension was palpable last night.
And I understand where it came from.
And I have to tell you, I woke up this morning, I slept, I didn't sleep great.
I slept okay.
And I woke up and, you know, I kept telling everyone last night in the live stream, it was like, Nothing cataclysmic has happened.
Nothing really unexpected has happened.
Really, if you want to talk about underperforming, really the only underperformance that we saw last night was in the Democratic Senate.
You know, the quest to take back the Senate.
In terms of Joe Biden, everything that was planned and expected was taking place.
It just so happened that, you know, we had some states that he needed to win.
And we're talking obviously about Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and to a lesser extent, Georgia, North Carolina.
Those, you know, when it was time to close down shop, those didn't look good.
But it was also another situation where there were tons of votes getting ready to come in.
We didn't know where the votes were coming from, but we also had mail-in votes, we also had Democratic leaning places, and it was obvious that this thing was going to shift.
But I have to tell you, I woke up this morning, and I made the mistake of obviously just picking up my phone immediately, and I went over to thetwitter.com, and what I saw was basically like opening up a room And just seeing everyone with their hair on fire running around setting everything else on fire.
And it became immediately clear.
And by the way, I love that we're a couple minutes into this and we still haven't talked about the fact that Donald Trump tried to commit a coup last night and is still trying to, which we'll get to, don't worry about that.
But what I recognized immediately was that Twitter is completely programmed to take everyone's anxiety and fear and profit off of.
And that's what was happening.
It was working to its absolute highest potential as a program and platform.
And we needed to talk about the fact, and again, within like an hour, all of a sudden the numbers started becoming very clear.
Joe Biden was going to win Wisconsin.
Joe Biden was going to win Michigan.
Joe Biden, there's a really good possibility, is going to win Pennsylvania as well.
And Georgia is still up in the air, but he looks good there too.
I have to tell you that the perception last night was not equal to the reality.
And the fact that everyone was freaking out the way they were, Was only adding into a situation that was going to empower Donald Trump to try and carry out a coup.
Fair enough.
Although I think the other, what kind of ratcheted up a lot of the emotion was to watch Trump be, you know, way behind on some of these states and then all of a sudden just jump right over Biden, you know, way toward the end of the count.
And that sort of momentum just feels like that's going to carry over and then finish it up.
So that was sort of what I was feeding off of as well, in a way that like you kind of sense that.
Now, interestingly enough, there were other states that were the opposite of that.
So, um, it was, it was just madness.
It was just all, you know, it was forces tugging at different directions and, uh, it was hard to get the, um, the, just the raw analysis, unemotional, uh, analysis of this to get through.
Uh, certainly like that's what it felt like for me.
And, um, You know, we're still there.
Georgia does not look great to me.
It's possible, but he's going to have to get, I think, 75% of the remaining votes coming out of, I believe it's probably Atlanta.
Which, again, is very possible.
Hard, but possible.
But I don't even think it matters.
I'm not sure it matters if he loses Pennsylvania at this point.
If he gets Wisconsin and Michigan, he's already got Arizona, that's pretty much to bed.
That's all he needed.
So it feels good today.
It feels a lot better than it did for sure.
And so now we can kind of get into the nitty-gritty of what this all means as far as where have we come as a country in four years.
Yeah, and again we're going to talk about Donald Trump trying to undermine democracy and the danger.
And we're still in danger.
Do not get me wrong.
We're still in a really, really dangerous moment.
But the reality of the situation, and I went back and I re-listened to...
Our election preview podcast.
And if you get a second today and you want to know where everything is and how everything is working, go back and listen to that podcast.
We had a dead to rights.
Outside of the Senate races, like, everything else has performed the way that we expected it to.
We're still looking at a possibility that when this thing is, and if all the votes are counted and if all of the votes are, you know, realized, we're looking at a possible 300 plus electoral haul by Joe Biden.
That's a real possibility.
That's in play right now.
And that is, that's not a landslide, but that's a mandate.
And I understand that this whole thing was very frightening, but it played out exactly as we've been talking about.
It just so happened that when it happened, it felt traumatic, and terrifying, and weird, and all that old trauma from 2016 that we're all still carrying around.
It was like, oh, here we go again!
Here it goes!
And it felt so much, and we talked about this in the livestream last night, it felt so much like that moment in 2016 where all of a sudden you're like, Oh hell, Donald Trump can win this.
And he's over-performing what we thought he was capable of.
And it's like, we've done it again, we've talked ourselves into this situation again, and here we go, and it's gonna happen.
But we have to talk about the fact that that mindset This idea that Donald Trump might have won this election, which I do not think that when the votes are counted that Donald Trump will win this election.
I do not think that's what's going to happen.
And everything on the ground and everything we're seeing tells me that that's not going to happen.
Donald Trump's only possibility is to capitalize off of our fear and uncertainty to create a chaotic situation where he might be able to use force, intimidation, and possible litigation and the undermining of democracy
To maintain power that is the only avenue that he has at this point right and we knew that the object permanence that he lacks that as an adult Unfortunately because he was going to as he did in his speech if he didn't stay up and listen to it last night He was going to and we met and this is what we talked about way before this was he's going to say I was up I'm up big I can't possibly lose them up that big, you know, over the course of enough time so that I was up big for four hours.
How can I possibly lose them that way?
And that's what he's arguing at this point.
But the real scary thing is that he's conflating the notion of ballots coming in after the election with ballots that had been sitting there for weeks.
Waiting to be counted in places like Pennsylvania and Michigan.
And that's the real question.
Is that going to take hold?
Are people on his side going to believe that that's where these ballots are coming from, in the middle of the night, shoved in between other ballots and this and that, versus literally they were just sitting there and the only reason why they weren't counted any earlier is because Republican legislatures in these states refuse to allow them to count them beforehand.
It's mind boggling.
Yeah, so in Trump's wet nerf football of a brain, the way that the circuitry works is everything that doesn't go his way is automatically unfair, right?
I was thinking a lot, actually, I don't know if you, uh, are you a fan of The Office?
Do you watch The Office at all?
I am.
Both, both offices.
So, you know in the American Office, it's the episode where Mike and the office workers play a basketball game against the shipping guys?
Yeah.
And they're winning, and then Michael finds out they're winning, and he goes, when it's done, we gotta end, and I guess we'll just give this to whoever's in charge right now, whoever's in the lead.
That's what happened last night.
Trump basically is like, well, I've won and when all of the numbers show that I've won, at this point, why are we even counting things anymore?
Why are we even considering the election anymore?
Everything else is a fraudulent endeavor.
Obviously, they're stealing.
And by the way, the tweets today, I don't know if you've been able to look at them.
They are madness personified.
I saw one, but you know what?
I better get back on there and just sort of... I'm sure we can all peruse.
It was like trying to watch a gerbil make sense of arithmetic.
Like, watching him try and figure out, like, why every time the votes were updated, he suddenly lost his lead, and he was suddenly losing, like, was seriously, like, trying to watch him navigate quantum physics.
He had no idea what was going on, but he knew that it felt bad, and as a result, it had to be inherently evil and corrupt.
And that's who we're dealing with.
Which, by the way, just to bring this whole thing around, that's fascism.
It's that empirical evidence and truth that contradicts what you feel is evil and awful and has to be suppressed through either legal measures or intimidation or violence.
Two things.
So when you look at his feed, what does it say to you that three of the five tweets of his most recent tweets are obscured by Twitter for being misleading?
Which is hard to do on Twitter, but they have already labeled those.
I haven't even seen what he's been saying under there, but they've been obscured.
But I think the fascism part doesn't come from the leader saying these ridiculous things.
It's the amount of people underneath him that are wholeheartedly and full-throatedly supporting these things.
That is what makes me concerned.
Now, we don't hear Ted Cruz, I don't think, I haven't heard him or Marco Rubio, these guys out there saying, oh, you know what, we better start counting these fraudulent or, you know, throwing out these fraudulent votes.
I haven't heard them, whatever, but we have The machinations below in the government, below Trump in the campaign are spurring him on and applauding him and can't wait to continue this.
That is where the real fascism takes hold and that's what's so concerning to me on one level.
Yeah, and the other level of it is, and I'm glad that you broke it down like that, like you have the authorities, right?
You have the establishment that is going to carry out what Donald Trump wants.
Then you have an army of lawyers who are going to do their own thing.
And then you have the dirty tricksters.
Like, I have to tell you that somebody like Roger Stone has not put down his phone this morning.
You know what I mean?
He's been on a lot of calls about how to really get this thing screwed up.
But then we have another level too.
Which is and we've talked about this for a year now.
I think we've been doing this for about a year.
We've been talking about this since the beginning of this podcast.
I've been talking about this for a few years.
We have a group of people, the Trump diehards, who literally believe that they are engaged in an invisible war against conspirators, both within America, outside of America, that, you know, they're going to come and take their guns.
They're going to steal the election.
They've had to, you know, basically squirrel away arsenals and ammunition, and they have to be prepared to be invisible soldiers in an invisible war.
Well, what happens as a criminal president who is absolutely desperate tells everyone that the election is being stolen and that there is at this building, they are counting fake ballots in order to steal the election instantly.
It's a coup.
What happens when the people who believe that they're in an invisible war and have been radicalized by years and years and years Of radicalizing propaganda via Fox News, the Internet, and the Republican Party, and the NRA.
What happens when they decide that they want to take matters into their own hands?
What happens when you have an authoritarian or a fascist is they create an environment that is ripe for danger and violence.
That's where we are right now.
And Trump is not afraid of it.
We've talked about it.
He loves pushing it to the edge as far as he can go and he'll do whatever he can to have an advantage or to continue to consolidate power.
We're in a really volatile situation right now.
I don't think he's going to win this election, but I can tell you that he's not afraid to make the streets run red with blood in order to try and steal the election.
That's actually where we're at today.
Yeah, blood on the sand.
But we don't have sand.
Blood on the concrete, whatever he's going to call it.
But here's the other thing that makes me really, really concerned.
And when we talk about where we've come in the last four years as a country or where we haven't gone, he's going to get 5 million more votes than he did last year, in 2016.
Maybe more.
Biden obviously got more as well, but not as many more.
So he'll end up having probably maybe about a 3 million vote difference now, which is way off from what I was thinking.
But that is more concerning and it kind of connects directly to what you're saying about violence in the streets because where are these, how can we possibly have developed five million more voters for Trump in these past four years?
How is that even possible?
I think the answer is related to what you just said and about how he's been able to inspire Well, before I get into that, and I think there's an interesting angle that not a lot of people have been talking about, I have to do this.
I'd be remiss if I didn't.
We've been telling people this was going to happen.
We told everyone this was going to happen.
We told everyone that the moment that he was losing, he would not accept defeat and that he would try and perform a coup as best that he possibly could.
It was, I do have to say, it was really surreal for me last night or this morning, what is time, when he came out and I was sitting there watching it and I was just like, I know what he's going to say.
He's going to come out and say, I've won the election and now they're trying to steal it from me and we have to do something about it.
I knew that he was going to start a possible coup.
And it was surreal.
It was like a deja vu moment, but I was very calm about it.
I was just like, well, here it is.
Obviously this is what happens.
Everybody in this country who has been in denial about this, like an active, angry denial about what has been happening in this country, they share a little bit of a burden.
Walking around believing that everything is fine, the status quo is fine, Donald Trump might be a problem but he's not going to try and perform a coup.
They're carrying around a portion of the blame.
The second part of what I want to talk about is off of that and off of what you just said.
If you've been on Facebook particularly, if you have family members on Facebook, you have seen large swaths of this country radicalized over the past four years.
There are people who might have went out to vote for Donald Trump who have become more fervent.
There are other people who are not particularly political who have been radicalized through white supremacist propaganda and eventually through things like QAnon.
You see an entire group of people in this country that have been, unbeknownst to them, they don't understand that this has actually been happening.
It's been through propaganda.
It's been through targeting on social media.
That's how this base has grown even a little bit.
And they probably already supported Trump, but this time there are a lot of people who are probably voting for the first time simply because they've been radicalized on social media.
Right.
We saw a huge surge of Republican registrations of people who hadn't voted before in the last couple weeks.
And it sounds like they were also very successful in not only getting them registered, but convincing them to go to the polls and vote the day of to somehow negate or to try and negate all the mail-in ballots that we had.
So, um, you know, it's, it's, it works.
It works like the Republican Party should probably feel almost good for what they did knowing that they were going to lose, right?
It looks like Trump is going to lose.
It should have been a lot worse.
And as a result, they're going to pick up seats in, uh, in the Congress, in the house They're going to hold on to their Senate.
And so it's like in some respects, they've already got all the judges they want.
There needs to be some celebration and some solace in the fact that Biden is going to take over and we're going to have the control of the House as it is.
But as life goes, this is definitely tinged with a lot of bittersweetness because, you know, in some respects, this Republican Party is hanging on.
They are the zombie.
Apocalypse.
And they don't let go when they should.
This is like Jacob's Ladder again.
He won't accept that he's dead.
They won't accept that they're dead.
Wow, what a spoiler.
Oh, shit.
Wow, that's incredible.
You still gotta watch the movie anyway, right?
These people are going through so much, Nick.
They have a contested election, a possible coup, you're throwing spoilers at them.
What a rough day.
So here is one of the conversations that we're not going to hear a lot about on social media.
And there's a lot of reasons for it.
We don't have a lot of time to get into why this conversation isn't going to be gotten into.
But maybe we'll have this conversation on a later podcast.
The Republican Party at all times, and by the way, by extension, you can go back to the Democratic Party back before the big giant shift in the 1960s.
What you've actually seen is that this white identity aristocracy has survived because what they'll do is when they are contested, when they see that their power is starting to slip, they will bring in people that they have in the past they will bring in people that they have in the past targeted and pushed Right.
That they've actually like made vulnerable populations.
They'll bring them in and they'll turn them into one of them.
It's like an amoeba, like a blob that brings people in and suddenly they walk away and they're different.
The Republican Party has made inroads with some of these groups that in the past, I mean, you know, we talked last night a little bit about the Latinx community and how, you know, the numbers have shifted there.
I mean, Donald Trump started his political career, you know, talking about people coming from Mexico being rapists and drug dealers.
Well, what ends up happening is when you have this hyper-partisan, atomized type of environment that we're in right now, we get to a point where the economy works in such a way, at a moment of artificial austerity, where we're all just trying to get by.
Right?
We're all just trying to make enough money to pay for our necessities and not fall behind and not end up in the street.
Well, when that continues to happen, and when that continually gets ratcheted up, as it has been during the Trump presidency, You start to see people, they start shifting their identities.
They start shifting the way that they think about politics.
And suddenly it's like, well, I don't want to be taxed.
You know what I mean?
And all of a sudden it's like, well, Joe Biden might tax me.
So I should probably go over here.
So that atomized society leads to a lot of weird political shiftings.
And this is something we're going to have to analyze.
For years to come, but that's how the Republican Party has managed to even survive, is they have to constantly change their ideas of in-groups and out-groups, and all of a sudden they atomize these groups of people.
They start breaking them apart and shifting them around against one another.
So, it's been well documented on this podcast that I am an amateur professional expert on JFK, the conspiracy, right?
You know, that's an interesting slippery slope because we can discuss this in the context of Q and how it is so alluring.
Only because, you know, listen, I've gone through a lot of these rabbit holes.
I mean, I've gone through the lunar landing thing, right?
And it is really, it's easy to get sucked into that and start thinking, shit, these, the shadows don't align right for what the sun should be on the moon and, you know, whatever.
And then you start thinking, well, geez, if they wanted to, you know, have a moon race and then not have to actually do it, then let's fake it and get Stanley Kubrick involved.
I mean, all these things all of a sudden make some rational sense.
And then Stanley Kubrick is putting all these, you know, clues into The Shining.
So, you know, and by the way, you just described a wild weekend is what you just described, you know.
It's like you get off work on a Friday and you come back to work on a Monday and you're like, I have a lot of things I need to talk to you about.
Let me explain this though because you could go from JFK to the lunar landing to 9-11 to QAnon in four steps.
It is not hard at all to do.
And I'm telling you, I'm not allowed to talk about the 9-11 stuff because it's just not socially appropriate these days anymore, but sometimes someone's like, wait, what are you talking about?
I can list a lot of shit that went on there that doesn't make any sense at all.
I'm willing to kind of exist in the world we live in and how it happened, but whatever.
But I'm telling you, I can recognize how easy it could be.
The only problem, though, is there is some mechanism in my brain that says, you know what?
There's not a pedophile ring going on.
Yeah, absolutely it could be.
pizza parlor like that just doesn't work it doesn't make sense it can't be and yet that's the next step down that they can make uh and then yes to whip that whole group the only question we have is is you know how big is that group it's not the five million extra voters right that he got from 2016 but it could be could it be a million yeah absolutely it could be i mean what you're talking about is a is an inherently human thing
so like i'm working on this new project right now Like, I went back to ancient Rome and I'm working my way forward.
I can tell you that this conspiratorial, you know, like, linking together of things, these in-groups, out-groups, based on, you know, who controls power, who doesn't control power, this is as old as human civilization.
It's a very powerful, like, evolutionary thing within us.
And I have to say, to bring this back around to the election, People right now, I think, are kind of really, really upset that Donald Trump had the showing that he did.
Because we all look at this thing and we're like, how in the living hell could anybody go into a voting booth and pull the lever for Donald Trump?
Who could fill out that bubble, right?
Like, it's so...
Shocking to us that there are still so many people in the middle of a pandemic, in the middle of all the corrupt scandals that he's had, and the fact, I mean, he's a disgusting human being, right?
The problem is that we are in this moment of this trench warfare polarization.
And we can break the fever.
It was not going to break yesterday.
It was not going to break last night.
There is a lot of societal fixing that needs to happen.
There's a lot of reconsideration, a lot of reconfiguration that needs to happen.
It wasn't going to happen last night.
It's not going to happen today.
You know what I mean?
Like there's still a lot of stuff that we have to do, but it goes back to that atomization I was talking about.
We have had an economy for decades now that has just been wildly unfair and cruel and it's juiced us for all of our worth and made our lives harder and worse and more dangerous and more frustrating and it has led to this moment where we are dealing with the fallout of that.
But that's what Donald Trump is.
Because I've said this before, Donald Trump is not the disease.
He's a symptom.
We have to get him out, and then we have to have a larger project.
But it was not going to get solved last night, no matter how much we wanted it solved.
I agree.
And it might not get solved today.
I mean, it feels like it should kind of by the end of today.
I believe Michigan had said they're going to have, you know, another big batch, at least of counting, that'll get them pretty close.
And that'll be something interesting.
Now, Pennsylvania, I feel like I heard Shapiro, the Attorney General, I think, say that they might end up going until Friday to count these votes, which is probably fact.
But they might be able to call it before then.
But he's simply covering his bases by saying Friday.
So we're in a situation where I don't know how volatile it feels like on the streets right now.
It doesn't seem like anyone's really everyone obviously is pensive and just sort of watching and waiting.
But again the real issue we have now have to worry about is what the courts are going to do.
And again they've pretty consistently said there's no standing with their arguments because there is no standing with the arguments.
They come on there with a vague general, it's not fair.
And then when the judge starts grilling them and you can see where the judge is coming from, even Republican judges who were appointed by Bush or other hardline conservatives, they all seem to take this pretty seriously.
And that's the only hope we have as far as if it does go to the Supreme Court.
A guy like John Roberts et al. would also take this seriously and recognize how much of a ridiculous case it is and how frivolous it is to the point where maybe they wouldn't even hear the case because they realize that there's no merits to it.
Oh no, the Supreme Court wants to hear this case.
That's what these people get up to.
And this is something that we have to keep in mind.
We have a partitioned government.
We have the executive, the legislative, and the judicial.
I'll tell you what they love doing is they love slapping around the other branch of government.
And the Supreme Court will not miss a moment where they can put the executive underneath their purview.
It is a constant battle over that.
And as far as the judiciary, there has been, you know, and knock on wood, there has been a really good record so far of judges taking these things seriously, but we cannot look at them as some sort of, like, homogenous group.
There are some batshit crazy judges out there who are willing to do some things, you know what I mean?
Yeah.
But we're not out of the water with all of that, not even close.
Before we started taping, I don't know if you managed to see this, The Trump campaign has already requested a recount in Wisconsin.
Well, go ahead and have the recount because Biden has won Wisconsin.
And what we're going to see with the beginnings of this process is we're going to see how much the Trump campaign is going to work in good faith during these recounts.
And I have to tell you, and I think you know this as well as I do, they're not going to act in good faith.
There are a lot of dominoes that are about to fall.
Michigan will probably be given over to Joe Biden today.
And I have to tell you, watching Trump react to that or watching Trump try to preemptively keep that from happening is going to tell us a lot about where we're going to go over the next couple of days.
Because Michigan is like one of the big, big parts of this entire puzzle.
So if Trump thinks that he's going to lose an absolutely crucial state, I think he's going to tip his hand and show us what to expect in the next few days.
But this thing, It's not going to get figured out today, and it's probably not going to get figured out tomorrow.
There's a possibility that this might be an extended, really, really messed up, ugly situation.
Right.
And if you're wondering how a recount gets triggered in Wisconsin, a candidate can request it by 5pm the day that the results are certified or released, as long as it's within 1%.
Which, as it is now, it is.
It's within 1%, if I'm doing my math correctly.
It's less than 21,000 votes.
So that is concerning to some degree because, you know, recounts getting really messy.
We saw that in Florida in 2000.
You know, I don't know if there's any precedent for a recount that's as big as 20, 30,000 votes completely flipping around to the other side or not.
But, you know, that's a little bit worrisome.
But again, if it's something like Pennsylvania, Michigan are held for Biden, then Wisconsin doesn't even matter.
Yeah, Wisconsin's going for Biden.
I don't think you have to worry about this at all.
I think Wisconsin's going to be fine.
But again, I think watching how the Trump campaign navigates it is again going to give us a bigger idea because the two that are going to be huge are going to be Michigan and Pennsylvania.
And, you know, how Trump navigates those is, again, it's going to tell us a lot.
I think Georgia, and I live in Georgia, I don't have the slightest idea what's going to happen down here.
This thing seems like more of a toss-up than anything else, but it's really not going to figure into the election more than likely.
Right.
I mean, 84,000 votes.
Correct me if I'm wrong, they're all from Atlanta.
The last 5% of the reporting are from Atlanta, right?
That sounds to be the case, yeah.
Okay.
I guess he could close that.
And again, that would trigger, again, another recount and a bunch of different lawsuits.
That's the real question here.
How quickly are they going to be able to process these lawsuits or not?
And then how quickly can they do the recounts?
And how, you know, I guess here's one thing that we could be sure of is that any kind of recount is going to be observed by both sides very meticulously.
Wait, are we assuming that?
I mean, because God knows, you know, 2,000.
And by the way, we've said this a couple times.
If you haven't yet, go watch 537 votes.
The documentary by Billy Corbyn.
It is essential right now.
You're being assigned to watch 537 votes to understand how these things happen.
And you have to learn from what the Democratic Party did wrong in 2000, which is nearly everything.
They acted in good faith against a bad faith movement.
They were not aggressive because they were terrified of seeming like they were trying to steal an election.
And as a result, they got rolled.
So whether or not the Democratic Party shows up and does their due diligence here, I assume they will.
I have to assume they will, but there's still a kind of a question mark lingering over the whole process.
Sure, and what happened in the 537 votes was that they got rolled in the sense that they just simply couldn't finish the recount.
The actual recounting itself, while they were there, that seemed like, you know, people were observing and whatever, but where they ended up being successful is basically bullying The infrastructure into stopping the count and then somehow, you know, finding the right amount of the Supreme Court justices to further that.
So it's a little different.
I think it would be a little bit different.
But again, there's their creative.
That's the thing.
These Republicans are creative about how they can do this.
I mean, who would have thought?
I would not have been able to predict.
Hmm.
How can we get in the way of this thing?
Let's appoint someone in charge of the post office that can completely and utterly destroy the chain, the mail chain.
Right.
Like that's just gene evil genius stuff.
I don't know.
That must happen in other dictatorial countries, right?
They must have gotten that from somewhere, seen it in a movie, I don't know.
But that was one of those things where they are very creative and that's another issue why we have to be, yes, very concerned, but I'd much rather be in the position that we are now where Biden has the lead and it might trigger a recount or not, but he's got the lead and it seems pretty clear and that should happen again when they're in the recount.
So they're in the position they need to be as of this minute.
I want to be very clear and very deliberate about this.
And I was tweeting about this a little bit earlier today.
We need to divide the things that we should be frightened about and worried about from the things that we don't need to worry about and be anxious about right now.
It appears that Joe Biden is in an incredible place of leverage to become the next president of the United States.
The odds are that he will win this election if all of the votes are counted.
He has so many different paths to victory at this point, and the numbers look like they favor him.
On all fronts, more or less.
The things you do need to be worried about Is that your anxiety and the fear that is currently floating around particularly on places like social media and within the media which profits off of all of this by the way.
I turned on cable news today for a few minutes and I need to take a shower.
It is already just so bad and they're having a heyday.
You know what I mean?
Like this is everything that they've ever wanted and So what we need to realize is that we're in peril right now.
There is an advantage here for Joe Biden over Donald Trump in a legitimate election.
But what you just talked about, that deviousness, right?
Like, I'm with you.
I never ever would have considered taking a public good, like the post office, and suddenly turning it into an anti-democratic weapon.
I mean, that is a deviousness that I don't have.
I just don't.
It's not in my golf bag, you know?
But we are in this, we're imperiled right now.
And you need to understand, and I keep trying to tell people this, not because I'm trying to be an alarmist.
I'm not trying to be hyperbolic.
By the way, there's this idiot who got on my nerves today on social media.
He was like, oh you're just trying to sell books.
Just like, I don't care if anybody ever buys another one of my books.
I need people to be aware of this shit.
These people do have the capability of hurting you.
Because that's what fascism is.
It's about either intimidating you or using violence to get you out of the way in order for their reality to come in and be dominant.
That's where we're at.
That's what we're dealing with.
Donald Trump has already inspired violence.
He's already used asymmetrical violence to his advantage.
He's already said that his followers should be out trying to drive buses off the road.
He's already stood up for a kid who went into Kenosha, Wisconsin and shot a few people.
Like, that's what they're willing to do.
It's a level that none of us even want to fathom going to.
They're willing to go to that.
So this moment of volatility, what we've been warning you about for months now, It's real.
It was never about trying to up our listens or trying to sell a product or somehow or another to manipulate people or get them like vibrating on a level that was conducive to something.
That's like the legitimate space that we're living in right now.
So we do have to understand, and I keep saying this, we have a president who has tried to carry out a coup.
We need to be ready to protest.
We need to be ready for mass action, mass protest.
We need to be ready to fight against this thing.
But do not for a second think that we are not in danger and that there's not some sort of big giant fight coming because it's absolutely coming.
I mean, we heard Newt Gingrich, of all people, calling for... God, what did Newt do?
Yeah, you didn't hear it?
He wants McConnell and Graham to call an investigation on the Judiciary Committee for this and get, like, the actual machinations of government involved to investigate what's going on.
I mean, it's the same bullshit they would say for Benghazi, you know, just whatever.
There's no point even doing that.
Nothing would come out of that.
But that's what you hear them saying.
Newton Leroy needs to sit his dumb ass down, is what he needs to do.
He did enough damage in the 1990s, he doesn't now need to completely undermine and pulverize democracy as we know it.
Newton Leroy can go to hell.
And we know that McConnell probably feels the same way we do about Trump.
You know, he has no interest in going anywhere near the White House for fear of COVID, rightfully so.
And I think he recognized that.
And that's the failure of the Republican leadership was that, you know, a lot of them realized the dangers of Trump, but sort of just shrugged thinking, all right, well, let's get our stuff in while we can.
We'll get what we can get.
And, you know, and by the way, it doesn't matter now because they've gotten all the judges they need to get in.
They still have control of the Senate, which is what we haven't really talked about at all.
It's disgusting.
It's a disgusting world we live in that Susan Collins could get re-elected again in this environment.
It's disgusting to me.
And it looks like she's going to win that one, I think.
Maine has a weird way of doing their Senate races, I believe, but it still looks like she's going to get it.
We're still in a world of pain here, regardless of what happens with the presidential election.
Yeah.
You know, we've got some questions about that.
And again, we're doing this with a live audience of our patrons off of patreon.com slash muckrake podcast.
We've had some people asking about that.
It looks like at this point, we are either going to have a completely divided Senate or a, you know, leaning a little bit to the Republican side.
Again, this was an underperforming type thing.
And we can talk later about, we can talk about the mismanagement on the Democratic side at some point or another, you know, when we're not in the middle of a presidential election possibly being stolen, we can go through the autopsy of how this went wrong.
We talked about it a little bit last night on the on the live feed, but how resources and attention, you know, resources were moved around in a really ridiculous way.
But yeah, this fight isn't over.
If Joe Biden manages to go ahead and win the election, which I think that he will if votes are allowed to be counted, we're going to be looking at a continuation of a lot of the battles we have right now.
And we're going to have Donald Trump over here throwing rocks.
You know, as the anti-president who's going to, I keep saying this, he's going to probably be on OANN or Trump TV or whatever with like a makeshift oval office where he talks like he's the president with no responsibilities.
And then with the Republicans, they know that they still have Trumpism as a weapon and a cudgel, and they're going to be looking for the successor to Donald Trump who will take up the baton and possibly, you know, win in 2024.
So no, we're not going to be out of the woods, but this right now, this is a 5 alarm fire.
We have to put the fire out and then we'll start dealing with how the fire started.
Sure.
And by the way, the fire started is the polls.
At some point we need to have a reckoning with what these polls mean.
I just wanted to check on 538 because North Carolina's Senate race is driving me crazy because it looked like Cunningham had it.
They had Cunningham favored on the average polls by 5 points.
And that he had a, you know, his chance of winning was 68 out of 100, which of course means, you know, 32 out of 100 happens all the time, right?
That's what the argument will be.
But something is fundamentally wrong with some of these polls.
And we need to sort of figure out, we talked about that in the live show last night, about like what are the polls, what are they supposed to be for anyway?
But I don't know, there needs to be a fundamental shift in how we Polls suck.
Polls just suck.
And they're pretty useless.
Let's just put that out front.
Like, unless we're talking about public opinion on issues, they pretty much suck.
We have people who either lie to pollsters or they try and cover up, you know, what they actually believe to pollsters.
On top of that, I'm done with Nate Silver.
I'm just gonna block him.
I'm done thinking about Nate Silver.
It's almost like your local weatherman who doesn't know shit about what the forecast is.
And he calls for sunny days and it's seven days of rain.
There's no consequence.
By the way, controversial opinion.
I think that whenever your local weatherman gets on the screen, over on the side there should be a list of his right and wrongs.
Keep a running tally of how good he's been at the weather because you need to know if you can trust these people.
Nate Silver should have to walk around with a slate that says what he's gotten right and what he's gotten wrong.
He's a charlatan, okay?
And they've made a ton of money.
And on top of that, since we're on the subject, this dumbass cartoon fox that they have on all of their things.
I don't even know his name.
It's like Guessy the Fox or something like that.
I don't know.
He can go to hell too.
This entire polling situation is so absurd and it is so broken.
And it's still back in like the 1980s, the way that they conduct these things.
And meanwhile, they try and pretend that there's some sort of high-tech, big-tech, Svengali who know everything.
And here's another problem.
And I'm hot about this.
I'm glad you brought this up.
They're so wrong about everything.
And they are so inept.
And do you know what a party like the Democratic Party relies on?
Those polls.
All the time.
They get in a room and they have all the specialists and they have all of the people who are like running their campaigns and they're running off of polls that don't mean shit.
And they've been doing this forever.
This whole thing, it makes me so hot.
These polls are so wrong and they're so useless and I'm tired of them.
That and the cartoon fox go to hell.
Right.
And Jeff makes a great point in the comments that while Tillis had a 32% chance of winning, not by the margin he is going to win by.
And that's the other thing that gets so frustrating is that the margins are just way off on some of these races.
I don't know.
Right.
It kind of reminds me of the analytics movement in basketball where we're pouring all this information in there, we're trying to use it, and we're using it in the completely wrong way.
And as a result, the game is completely changing to the point where, you know, the ratings are down.
There's a similarity there where it's not done properly.
And I had joked on Twitter where we kind of need to have a lie detector test.
with your poll, somehow be able to measure that while you're on the phone or on whatever with whoever's doing it.
Because clearly there's an unreliable narrator here when they're doing these polls or they're simply, yeah, they're just not doing it as a, you know, if you were to see how polls are done, you might feel like, how is it possible that, you know, 500 people can give you a representative accounting of the country, 500 people can give you a representative accounting of the country, Or 1,000 people.
And they'll say, well, no, we do this with the science and whatever.
And it makes sense.
I don't want to argue with the math of it.
But at some point in this volatile setting of the government and this politics that we have, a poll that asks people that 1,200 people something may not mean much at all when you think about it.
So here is my modest proposal, and I have a lot of them that we need to get to at some point and just go down the list of how to make this country better.
But here's a modest proposal.
Let's throw all of the polls into the sun and never talk about them again outside of issues.
So how about we go into the presidential election and we vote.
We have a week where we all go and vote and then all of a sudden everybody shuts up until every vote has been counted.
By the way, this whole spectacle of election night, and by the way, we hung out, we had a good, well, I don't know if good time is the right phrase, but we hung out with each other, we watched it happen.
We shouldn't have it.
Why are we treating this like it's a season finale or the Super Bowl where we can look at the numbers come in and we can have an idea.
We have no idea.
Even as Kornacki again is all gacked up and like this is here, that's there, that's coming in from here.
We don't know and it does real damage.
Because look at our idiot president.
Our idiot president watches it and thinks that he's watching like a scoreboard light up.
He doesn't understand it, and so as a result, again, his wet, nerf football of a brain tries to make these connections, and the object permanence is completely gone.
It's a dangerous thing.
It's actually hurting our political system, and it's hurting our society.
I could talk about this for way too long, but we should bring this plane in for a landing and have a couple of questions from our audience.
Okay, first things first.
Jonah E. started us off with, do you think Biden will be able to get Georgia?
What are your feelings about Georgia?
You're more pessimistic on Georgia than I am.
Well, wait a minute.
You were the one who was telling me he wasn't going to win, you know, before yesterday.
I told you I didn't expect him to win Georgia from the very beginning.
Yeah.
I don't.
I think he's going to have to, it has to be, it's razor thin.
He'd have to get every single boat he needs to get all the way across the left.
So I'm going to say, no, he's not going to get Georgia.
Okay, I don't think he will either, but I'm more bullish on the possibility.
I think the Atlanta vote that's coming in could possibly shift things in a big, major way.
But I will tell you that the numbers I saw from the Senate races in Georgia tell me that that's not likely.
That's probably not what's going to happen.
I kind of thought for Biden to win Georgia, Ossoff, and I never thought Ossoff was going to win.
I thought Ossoff would have been closer.
So that was sort of my bellwether there.
Okay, going back to what we were talking about, but I want to hear your opinion on this, Nick.
What happens with the split Senate and a thin House majority with Biden?
And that's from Dr. Howe.
What do you see that looking like?
Okay, well I would hope that...
Not much, because the Senate is going to obstruct.
A split Senate to me means, what, we have Kamala to decide?
Is that what he means?
Because obviously if we have that, then sure, they can push all sorts of great stuff through.
They can fix health care again.
Um, you know, we can get more help to people for COVID.
We can finally get some COVID stuff, national COVID rules in place.
I mean, there's a lot of shit that they can and will do if Kamala is deciding vote.
But, but man, uh, here's the question though, is can we finally put the kind of pressure on the Republicans like they do for like instances of war?
You know, the Republicans will say, well, you know, we have to go to war with this country and you're not a patriot if you don't vote for it.
Well, maybe because they have the White House and the House, maybe they can do the same kind of thing with COVID relief and maybe even health care so that we can maybe get that kind of bipartisan help on a couple of things.
You know, get Mitt Romney or somebody.
You only need one or two of them so they can get some things done.
So I feel like it's going to be, there'll be some decent legislation going, getting through now that if Biden wins and they, And they obviously have the house.
Yeah.
So first and foremost, one thing that we have to understand is if Joe Biden does win the presidency, and again, it seems like that is likely, if he doesn't win the presidency, I have to tell you that in January of 2021, a lot of Republicans are going to roll out of their comfy beds and be like, you know what I'm really concerned with?
The deficit.
I'm really concerned about the deficit.
I cannot believe, looking around, like how much of a deficit is there?
It's incredible.
Whoa, whoa, whoa.
How'd this happen?
How?
Who?
Who possibly could have ran up this deficit?
I bet that person has a D by their name.
So that's automatically what's going to happen.
But we do have to understand that we have this new sort of modern weapon, which is the executive order.
And I think Joe Biden will probably, unfortunately, have to use executive orders.
And then we're going to end up in a prolonged legal battle between the executive branch and the judicial branch.
And then of course, we've talked about this and it goes back to what we were just talking about.
A Joe Biden presidency with a Trump base that believes the election was stolen is a recipe for violence and volatility.
So that's something that we have to keep an eye on.
Yeah, and then let's not forget if it goes to the Do you know what they named that fox?
Do you know what they named that dumbass fox over at FiveThirtyEight?
Republicans can probably legislate from the courts based on who they've already appointed, many of whom are not qualified or very low rated by the bar.
So it's a concern.
And we'll have to hope that maybe a couple of senators will just peel off and become more moderate and help them pass some things.
Do you know what they named that fox?
Do you know what they named that dumbass fox over at FiveThirtyEight?
Red?
Fivey.
Fivey, okay.
I already hated him before I knew his name, but I hate him even more now.
Fivey.
Fivey can go straight to hell.
All right.
Mia says, how confident are you at this point in the game?
Where are you at, Nick?
How confident am I?
I'm very confident that Biden will win.
Yeah.
So I would say I'm 75% confident that he's got it.
It seems even without Pennsylvania, I think he's going to get Wisconsin and Michigan, so we're okay.
Yeah, I'm very confident in that regard.
I'm less confident that we will be able to withstand the authoritarian, anti-democratic coup that Trump is trying to carry out.
I think it's going to depend a lot on public pressure and how the media meets the moment.
Which, by the way, if it's completely dependent on what the media does, we're just screwed.
But, you know, I do think Americans will stand up to this thing, and I think that it stinks.
I think it stinks to the point where you'll actually see a lot of Republican voters.
I always talk about them.
It's the county fair Republicans, the ones who have, like, elephant brooches, and, you know, they hand out, you know, corn dogs and pamphlets.
I think some of them would be really afraid of this thing, and they're not interested in the trench warfare type of idea that Trump really represents.
So I am confident And I'm also worried.
I am both things.
I contain multitudes, Nick.
I contain multitudes.
Sure.
Well, before we miss the question from Julia, which I think is interesting, is, do we think that the tight Senate races reflect election interference?
We didn't really talk about that at all, and it really hasn't come up.
The intelligence community seems to be relieved that everything kind of went off okay, although this is now where we're going to get a lot of the misinformation from Russia and whatnot.
It's interesting.
Do you have any feelings about that?
Whether or not these races could have been interfered with?
I don't know of anything in particular.
I have heard a lot of stories about fears of election tampering and interference.
I've heard a lot of anecdotal evidence.
I'm always hesitant to sort of float these out and really give them a lot of body because a lot of it is anecdotal evidence, you know, and it's, I've had it described to me by people in the know and with people with experience.
It's like chasing a ghost in a machine.
It's really incredibly hard to lock down.
And by the way, the moment that somebody would find it and that somebody would like press it down and say, here it is, this is what happened.
At that point, you know, the worms are kind of out of the can.
You know, at that point, democracy itself is just absolutely questioned.
And so it's a really hard thing to find, but I think it's a legitimate question that I don't know that we're going to have the answer to.
I agree.
Let's see a couple more questions before we wrap up.
Sure.
Do you see anything you want to grab?
Raven says, I just saw a tweet today that said 55% of white women voted for Trump this year.
I don't believe that.
Have you seen that?
Okay.
Excuse me.
I have some numbers to share with you too on that because I meant to bring that up.
Here's what's really concerning to me.
Are you ready?
Because it's related to this.
Yeah, I'm ready.
Where is it?
Oh my goodness gracious.
Here it is.
Okay.
So Charles M. Blow, who writes for the New York Times, had some numbers which are related to this where he says, The black male vote for Trump increased from 13% in 2016 to 18% this year.
The black female vote for Trump doubled from 4% in 2016 to 8% this year.
Also, once again, exit polls show a majority of white women voting for Trump.
And then by the way, LGBTQ voting for Trump doubled from 2016.
So, we brought this up in the very beginning of where we are as a country and where we've gone the last four years.
That is really concerning, wouldn't you say?
And that folds into the white women as well.
How is that possible?
Well, I want to start off by saying, first things first, is that white patriarchal supremacy doesn't just serve white males.
That's one of the things that we don't like to talk about, that, you know, white people as a whole benefit from white patriarchal supremacy.
It's something that we don't like really to get down to the nuts and bolts of.
The other thing that we have done, and this is a problem that has taken place over the last few years, which I think has taken place primarily on social media.
And actually, I think it was spurred on in part by advertising, particularly with demographics, and with politics, particularly with voting niches and voting blocs.
We have managed, in this current era, to start boiling people down to what I would call homogenous identities.
We say that if you are of this race, or this ethnicity, or this persuasion, or whatever, then this means this about you.
It's a way, by the way, that is about targeting, again, voter blocs and consumer niches.
It's not real.
That's not the way this stuff works.
People have tons of different reasons for why they vote.
Some people vote because they're inspired.
Some people vote because they're afraid.
Other people vote for their pocketbook.
Other people vote because they want an aspirational society.
They want it to be better.
There are so many different reasons why people vote, and we have to keep considering what I brought up earlier, which is this atomized society that Donald Trump and the Republican Party have created Where we're all fighting in artificial austerity for scraps.
And when we're fighting for scraps, we're more than willing to throw other people overboard in order to try and get a hold of those scraps.
So it is a big complicated thing that we really need to start actually talking about.
I agree and some of the comments are mentioning that they may have not included the mail-in ballots with those numbers but even still I'd be willing to bet that the raw numbers have gone up and have increased whether or not it's the right percentage or not.
There were more people voted in those blocks for Trump and what you said about white supremacy and how it affects other races is also spot-on and it really I don't know what that means for the country in the future.
That's what's also the most concerning about this, is where probably what we were sensing is this wasn't, the House didn't improve, the Senate did not get controlled by the, might not get controlled by the Democrats.
You know, those are the bellwethers there that we were hoping would indicate we are having progression.
People want to get better.
People want the country to move in a better direction.
That's what's concerning.
But let's see here, maybe we can grab a couple more questions.
Let's see, are you looking through them or do you want me to look through them?
I'm checking something out real fast.
Go ahead.
Okay, so what's this?
I'm gonna grab this.
I didn't even read it yet But Josh Johnson says no one is talking about the fact that the latest CR signed at the beginning of continuing resolution Signed at the beginning of October only funds the government through December 11th December 14th The first Monday after the second Wednesday in December is a pretty important date It doesn't leave this mitt doesn't leave It doesn't this leave Mitch and company a backdoor excuse to not show up for anything like counting the Electoral College That's interesting.
Did you follow that, Jared?
Yeah, I'm sorry.
Our listener Julia brought this up in the chat and I just checked it out.
We have breaking news, which is CNN's Jim Acosta is reporting that the Trump campaign says it has filed a lawsuit in Michigan to halt counting.
Okay.
So first things first, that's exactly what I expected from what I was saying earlier.
To see it happening at 2.05 p.m.
on Wednesday, November 4th is something.
I'm going to read this real fast.
This is Trump's campaign manager, Bill Stepien.
As votes in Michigan continue to be counted, the presidential race in the state remains extremely tight, as we always knew it would be.
President Trump's campaign has not been provided with meaningful access What the hell does that even mean?
Meaningful access to numerous counting locations to observe the opening of ballots and the counting processes guaranteed by Michigan law.
We have filed suit today in the Michigan Court of Claims to halt counting until meaningful access has been granted.
We also demand to review those ballots which were open and counted while we did not have meaningful access.
I mean, listen, that is that's a complete halting plus also a recount.
Right.
Because here's the thing.
If they want to halt it, then Biden wins.
Right.
Like why?
That would be dumb.
But I suppose what they're trying to now do is is halt it and then somehow have a recount.
And then, yeah, the fact that I mean, that's not possible, that they would have had a significant amount of votes being opened in private.
That's what Sepien's arguing, right?
We didn't get a chance to watch people opening all these ballots.
Yeah, so I just want to say a couple things because we don't know the minutiae of this thing, but I want to go on the record here, and I think this is where we should bring the plane in for a landing.
I think this is important to say.
I've been telling people for the past couple of months that you need to write down on a piece of paper what your red line is on the sand.
Like what these people do that moves across.
Donald Trump tried to start a coup last night.
It's really up to us to make sure that that doesn't happen.
This is, if this isn't the canary in the coal mine, it's the canary being carried in the coal mine.
This is if they somehow or another managed to finagle their way into a halting of counting.
We need to figure out either how to be in the streets or we need to figure out how to contribute to the people who will be out in the streets.
This is where we're at.
And I hate to say it, but this is one of those things I was telling everyone, I take this very seriously.
I don't like to say this, but we are at the moment of crisis that we've been talking about and we've been warning about.
We're there.
We're there.
Again, that's not the canary in the coal mine.
It's damn, damn close.
Yeah.
And don't forget that this is just the first one that he'll have, with no doubt, the same exact suit filed in Pennsylvania.
Without question in my mind, they're going to try and stop that.
And, by the way, if Georgia somehow flips to Biden, they'll be doing a thing to halt that or recount those or whatever anyway there.
So let's just be prepared.
There could be five, six lawsuits in six different states.
So what these lawyers are being paid to do is to create, and by the way, we like to pretend that lawyers get up and they argue a case and then, you know, whatever.
What actually happens is that lawyers create their own reality and they figure out a way to make the law conform around their reality.
That's what law is.
It's a social construct that navigates the borders between people's different realities.
That's what they're trying to do.
They figured out how to try and do this in Michigan.
This is how they think that they can possibly steal Michigan.
You better believe that there are some really high-priced people right now figuring out how to do this in Wisconsin, how to do it in Pennsylvania, probably how to do it in North Carolina, and probably, probably even Arizona.
They're probably out there too.
And also Georgia.
This is the first thing.
This is, you know, this is the shot heard around the world.
My advice to people is to communicate with other people, make a plan, what you think you can do, what you think you should do, how you think you can contribute, whether or not you should be in the streets, whether or not you should be providing support.
We're there.
We're there.
And what a sense of timing for us to be taping this thing as we cross that moment.
We're there.
Yep.
All I have to do is wait and see what happens tomorrow.
But yeah.
Let's not have to do an emergency podcast every day.
I don't know that my constitution can survive this.
Let's not have to do this.
I'm available.
If you want to do it, we can talk about it all day.
But yeah, we need some time to decompress and wait for more news to come in either way.
Yeah, I promise you we're going to keep our eye on this and we're taking this seriously.
We appreciate your support.
We appreciate you coming to us and trying to make sense of this with us.
You know, we're going to keep on this.
Nick's over at Can You Hear Me?
SMH.
You can find me at jysaxdown.
We're going to keep on top of this thing.
Thank you to all of our patrons who showed up, hung out with us.
It's awesome of you.
Everybody who came to the live stream, that's amazing.
All of the support we're getting is just, um, I, just to be honest, I've been really touched and I've been really bolstered by it, particularly during a really trying time.