The Megyn Kelly Show - Genetic Genealogy and DNA Evidence - Part 3 of Megyn Kelly Investigates Nancy Guthrie's Disappearance  |  Ep. 1276
Aired: 2026-03-19
Duration: 01:12:34


=== DNA Breakthroughs at Nancy's Home (05:59) ===

[00:00:50]  Welcome to The Megyn Kelly Show, live on Sirius XM Channel 111 every weekday at New East.
[00:01:02]  Hey everyone, I'm Megyn Kelly.
[00:01:04]  Welcome to the Megan Kelly Show, still in a remote location, still broadcasting for you guys.
[00:01:10]  And this is part three today of our special four-part series into the disappearance of Nancy Guthrie.
[00:01:16]  In this episode, we take a closer look at the science and the unanswered questions surrounding the DNA collected so far in this case.
[00:01:24]  DNA evidence can be a powerful tool for investigators and prosecutors.
[00:01:28]  As you know, it can confirm identities and place individuals at a scene.
[00:01:32]  And there are ways of tracking someone down and even getting a picture of someone when you find DNA at the scene, even if that specific DNA cannot be matched to any criminal database.
[00:01:46]  And we're going to talk about that today.
[00:01:47]  You could actually come up with a composite picture of someone based purely on unknown DNA, which can tell you what somebody generally looks like.
[00:01:59]  Isn't that so crazy?
[00:02:00]  So it may not match to a criminal database, but you can come up with a profile.
[00:02:04]  It's like they're so advanced now.
[00:02:07]  The real question here is: why hasn't that been done?
[00:02:10]  Clearly, they're not sure whether they have the DNA of the perpetrator.
[00:02:14]  Now, we know that forensic testing is underway on many samples taken from Nancy Guthrie's home, but authorities have not publicly detailed the full scope of what they've collected.
[00:02:23]  Somewhere in Nancy's home, there is DNA belonging to the suspect.
[00:02:29]  That's what virtually every DNA expert will tell you.
[00:02:32]  Like, this guy was not so forensically antiseptic that he prevented any of his DNA from getting into that home.
[00:02:41]  It's just a matter of whether it can be found.
[00:02:45]  Genetic genealogy is hot.
[00:02:47]  It is the future of law enforcement.
[00:02:49]  It's amazing.
[00:02:50]  Cece Moore, who's been on the show a couple times, she's the godmother of it.
[00:02:54]  I've actually worked cases back to 1958 now.
[00:02:58]  Whoa.
[00:02:59]  Yeah, quite a bit before I was even born.
[00:03:01]  And so it's just amazing what can be done in those cases where the crime scene investigators were so forward-thinking.
[00:03:09]  They collected things they couldn't have imagined how powerful they would be today.
[00:03:13]  Touch DNA doesn't have to be yours that they find like in their database.
[00:03:18]  It can be your sixth cousin.
[00:03:19]  So it's like reverse engineering someone's family tree and eventually their identity based on their ancestors.
[00:03:27]  She was saying this is why you're not going to have serial killers anymore in the United States.
[00:03:31]  About 10% of the cases that we've helped solve or been able to create profiles for have been touched DNA.
[00:03:40]  She actually came on and explained it with respect to the Kohlberger case on because you know in that case they grabbed trash.
[00:03:45]  Most states allow this.
[00:03:46]  It's considered abandoned at that point.
[00:03:49]  And then they go through the trash and try to find an item that might have DNA on it.
[00:03:54]  They were able to perform what is basically a standard paternity test comparison to the profile from the button on the sheath and determined that that individual's DNA from the trash was the father of the individual who left his DNA behind at the crime scene.
[00:04:10]  It is extremely confident, as we saw by the number, 99.9998%.
[00:04:18]  So that means that there's basically no one else on earth that could be the father of that individual.
[00:04:24]  This is what's now going to be done to the DNA on those gloves and probably also that found in Nancy's home.
[00:04:29]  And you start drawing circles around the person and getting to all their relatives until you can get closer and closer and closer, in this case to Tucson, Arizona, and somebody who might be living there.
[00:04:38]  This is very close to home for me, Megan, because the first case I remember as a little boy growing up in Philadelphia was the boy in the box case.
[00:04:48]  In the late 50s, a little boy found in a box in sort of the outskirts of Philly.
[00:04:53]  No one knew who he was.
[00:04:54]  Finally, after all these leads all around the world, who is this little boy?
[00:04:59]  We got to give him a name.
[00:05:00]  That breaking news at five o'clock, a major break in the case of the boy in the box.
[00:05:05]  About two, three years ago, through genetic DNA, that little boy was finally identified.
[00:05:12]  Sources tell us police have a name and they know who the boy is related to.
[00:05:16]  They can put a name on his tombstone now.
[00:05:18]  It's hard to figure out who killed him, but now we at least know his name.
[00:05:21]  It is amazing what can be done now.
[00:05:23]  Let's just hope we have something here at Mrs. Guthrie's house.
[00:05:26]  They go to the public databases that have people's DNA in them.
[00:05:31]  They're not supposed to go to 23andMe or Ancestry.com or Heritage.com, which are private.
[00:05:38]  Those are not supposed to be accessible by the feds.
[00:05:40]  But it's just like distrust of having your information out there and where it could go.
[00:05:44]  So I can see why they don't really want to be the assistant on this.
[00:05:48]  Have you ever considered taking one of those DNA tests?
[00:05:51]  You ever stop because you were afraid of where that might lead?
[00:05:54]  Some of my favorite stories on NBC were the 23andMe stories or the Ancestry.com stories.
[00:05:59]  But the question is, how accurate are those?
[00:06:01]  Okay, I really want to know the answer to this.
[00:06:03]  Get Savannah Guthrie to go to all the companies and say, please give us permission because you can give us permission.
[00:06:10]  It's not a violation of law to let us have access to this so we can see if there's a match to find this kidnapper.
[00:06:16]  The problem for us here is we don't know if the abductor's DNA is on those gloves or if the DNA they have found inside the house that doesn't match Nancy or one of her service providers is in fact the perpetrators.
[00:06:29]  We're not even at the place yet where we know that we have a SNP unless they have it and they haven't told us.
[00:06:38]  Now, as far as what we do know, the Pima County Sheriff's Department announced last month that it did find DNA at Nancy Guthrie's home that does not belong to her or quote, those in close contact to her.

=== Genetic Genealogy and Gold Tips (02:35) ===

[00:06:49]  So that's somewhat promising.
[00:06:51]  But then we since learned that it is mixed DNA, meaning it's from more than one person, making it a little tougher to isolate whose DNA it is.
[00:07:01]  As of now, there's been no report of any DNA matching anyone in the FBI's criminal database or leads generated from genetic genealogy matches, which does take longer.
[00:07:12]  But as we've told you, there is much that we do not know about what exactly the FBI and the local authorities have uncovered in the investigation.
[00:07:18]  It's very possible they have more than we know.
[00:07:22]  Joining me now to unpack all of this and more, Will Geddes.
[00:07:25]  Will's an elite bodyguard who has over 30 years of experience as a security expert.
[00:07:29]  He consults with U.S. law enforcement and federal government agencies and now runs a firm called International Corporate Protection.
[00:07:35]  If you get kidnapped, you should call Will.
[00:07:38]  Have your family call Will.
[00:07:40]  James Hamilton is here too.
[00:07:42]  He's a former FBI supervisory special agent and creator of the FBI's Close Protection School, which is a specialized training program designed for agents to protect high-level officials.
[00:07:52]  He now runs his own security firm called Hamilton Security Group.
[00:07:56]  Between these two, you have your family, you call them.
[00:07:59]  God forbid anything were to happen.
[00:08:01]  And here for her first appearance on the program, Susanna Ryan.
[00:08:05]  Susanna is laboratory director at the private forensic DNA lab, Pure Gold Forensics, based in California.
[00:08:11]  She has over 24 years of experience as a forensic DNA analyst and has testified in well over 100 cases.
[00:08:17]  So she knows what she's talking about.
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[00:09:22]  Will, James, Susanna, welcome to you all.
[00:09:24]  Great to see you again.

=== Chasing Unknown Profiles in CODIS (15:31) ===

[00:09:25]  Susanna, we're going to start with you because we want to kick it off on the question of DNA.
[00:09:30]  And, you know, we haven't heard anything thus far other than there's mixed DNA inside of the house.
[00:09:37]  And so far, they haven't been able to match anything with a known criminal database like the FBI's CODIS.
[00:09:43]  So if you were brought in on this case, where would you go from there?
[00:09:47]  It sounds like they're doing what I would do, which is moving on to genetic genealogy.
[00:09:53]  Now, one thing I would say is I do hope that they're making full use of the CODIS database.
[00:09:58]  And what I mean by that is Arizona is one of the few states, there's only about 11 or 12, that allow for something called familial searching.
[00:10:08]  And so what that is, is searching for a near match.
[00:10:11]  We're actually searching the regular CODIS database for someone who might be, let's say, a father or a brother of your unknown perpetrator.
[00:10:21]  And again, there's only about 11 or 12 states that allow that.
[00:10:24]  It's not done automatically.
[00:10:26]  It has to be done by a special request.
[00:10:28]  So I do hope that they're doing that.
[00:10:30]  But if they've done that and they don't have a match, then genetic genealogy is pretty much one of the only ways that short of finding a suspect and doing a direct comparison that I think this case might be solved.
[00:10:44]  But give us the simple explanation.
[00:10:47]  You run it through the CODIS database that the FBI has of criminals and arrestees, and there's nothing.
[00:10:53]  Now, how do you then say, because I know it's a different kind of testing, but how do you then say, okay, I'm going to try to see whether I can use genetic genealogy to figure out whose DNA this is?
[00:11:06]  Yes, it is a completely different type of testing.
[00:11:09]  And so you have to have enough sample remaining from that original sample where you did your traditional DNA testing, you uploaded it to CODIS, you did comparisons to any known reference samples.
[00:11:21]  There has to be enough remaining, which there isn't always enough when we're talking about touch or trace DNA.
[00:11:29]  So if you have enough sample, now you have to do a totally different type of testing called SNP testing.
[00:11:34]  That's single nucleotide polymorphisms.
[00:11:37]  And once that is completed, then you're uploading that SNP profile into the available databases.
[00:11:46]  And that includes GEDMatch Pro and Family Tree DNA.
[00:11:51]  There are other publicly available databases, but most of those do not allow for searching purposes.
[00:11:58]  And so, you know, we talked about 23andMe.
[00:12:01]  That's probably the largest one.
[00:12:02]  I think there are about 50 million profiles in that database.
[00:12:06]  The databases they're allowed to search have, you know, a couple of million each.
[00:12:11]  So you're looking for, you couldn't find a hit in the criminal database, and now you're trying to go over to a more widespread sort of one of those databases people use to find relatives or figure out interesting fun facts about their family history.
[00:12:24]  Now you're looking for a match over there.
[00:12:27]  And if you can find a match directly to the perpetrator there, great.
[00:12:32]  But you might find a match over there to a father or a distant, distant relative.
[00:12:37]  I mean, it could be like your sixth cousin twice removed, but you'll see something in the genetic information that's returned to you to show I have found a relative of this person who was in Nancy's house.
[00:12:51]  That's correct, right?
[00:12:52]  So what they're looking for is the amount of what we call centimorgans of DNA.
[00:12:56]  So they're looking to see how much just chunks of DNA you share with other people.
[00:13:03]  And, you know, it's interesting, like, for example, the 23andMe database, that's something that's automatically done.
[00:13:09]  You know, I've done that.
[00:13:11]  My sons have.
[00:13:13]  And when they put their DNA in, it automatically matched up to their aunt, right?
[00:13:17]  Because she had done it.
[00:13:18]  So it just is an automatic process.
[00:13:21]  Now, that's exactly what they're looking for, these pieces of DNA, because we know that, you know, with your parents, you share about 50% of your DNA.
[00:13:28]  Brothers and sisters, at least 50% of the DNA.
[00:13:31]  And then you start moving outward.
[00:13:33]  Cousins, about 25%.
[00:13:35]  And so they're just looking for pieces of DNA, lengths of DNA that have been passed down that have to have been shared through a family relationship.
[00:13:44]  And the further you go, the less DNA you're going to share.
[00:13:48]  But that puts you in a category of, okay, this may be a second or third cousin.
[00:13:53]  And you have the genealogists who are very skilled then at building out those family trees and trying to narrow in on a specific family.
[00:14:02]  Once you do that, once a family has been identified, you still need to do a direct comparison, the traditional STR testing that we always do.
[00:14:11]  That's what's, that is what the comparison is done.
[00:14:14]  That's what's used in court is what do you mean about that?
[00:14:17]  Is that like, like to take the Brian Kohlberger case for an example?
[00:14:20]  You know, they had a hit on that knife sheath to eventually they got to Brian's father.
[00:14:26]  And then they had to cheek swap Brian to like, is that the piece you're talking about?
[00:14:30]  Like now you do a direct DNA on the actual suspect.
[00:14:35]  Yes, that's absolutely correct.
[00:14:37]  So the way we kind of look at it is the SNP testing, the genealogy is sort of a tip.
[00:14:43]  It's a lead.
[00:14:44]  What is actually used in court is that confirmation sample.
[00:14:48]  So once we have that lead, and you know, I've done this in a number of cases.
[00:14:51]  I have someone, you know, I have a DNA profile.
[00:14:54]  It's gone into CODIS.
[00:14:55]  It hasn't hit anyone.
[00:14:57]  All right, let's do genealogy.
[00:14:59]  And they tell me, okay, it might be, let's say, one of five brothers.
[00:15:04]  And then they have to get a reference sample from each of those brothers, whether it's a trash pull or they go up to the person and say, hey, will you give me your DNA?
[00:15:12]  And then we rule that person in or out based on the traditional DNA testing.
[00:15:18]  Okay.
[00:15:19]  Gosh, it's so complicated.
[00:15:20]  So what about this?
[00:15:23]  The sheriff is saying it's mixed DNA.
[00:15:26]  And our friend Matt Murphy, you know, a longtime Orange County prosecutor, he kind of rolled his eyes at the sheriff saying, oh, it's going to be tough for the labs to do because it's mixed DNA.
[00:15:35]  Because Matt was like, he's tried many, many homicide cases.
[00:15:38]  He was like, the labs deal with mixed DNA all the time.
[00:15:42]  But so what's your take on mixed DNA?
[00:15:44]  Does it make it more complicated?
[00:15:46]  And is it a deal breaker?
[00:15:48]  So we do deal with mixed DNA all the time.
[00:15:52]  That's correct.
[00:15:53]  Especially with the sensitivity of testing.
[00:15:56]  I mean, we're getting DNA from, you know, a couple, a dozen cells or so, right?
[00:16:00]  So we're getting mixtures all the time.
[00:16:03]  But that's with traditional testing that you sort of hear about all the time.
[00:16:07]  The SNP testing, it is much more challenging to work with.
[00:16:11]  That you need for genetic genealogy.
[00:16:13]  Yes, correct.
[00:16:14]  Yes.
[00:16:16]  And the reason for that is just think of the name, single nucleotide polymorphism, many changes, right?
[00:16:24]  So every single base pair, there's different pieces of DNA that they're looking at.
[00:16:30]  Whereas the type of testing, the traditional testing, it's sort of these chunks of DNA and we're looking at maybe about 24 of them.
[00:16:37]  They're looking at hundreds of thousands of pieces of DNA.
[00:16:41]  So if you have a mixture, now it's very difficult to pull that mixture apart if it's not the correct ratio.
[00:16:48]  If the person of interest is what we call the major contributor, there's more of that person's DNA.
[00:16:54]  That's definitely something that the labs are able to deal with.
[00:16:58]  Once you start seeing that person of interest being the minor component, maybe only, let's say, 20 or 25% of the mixture, now the genealogists, they have a much more difficult time working with that kind of mixture.
[00:17:14]  And if you have a mixture of three people or four, which is not uncommon with these type of samples, it becomes almost impossible.
[00:17:22]  Now, let me ask you this.
[00:17:24]  If they brought you into Nancy's house in this investigation and said, where should we be testing for DNA, right?
[00:17:32]  Like, I mean, in a perfect world, you'd find that mouth flashlight sitting there on the floor, right?
[00:17:37]  Of course, with the saliva all over it, but clearly that didn't happen.
[00:17:41]  So what would you say to them, like walking into this crime scene?
[00:17:45]  What would you want as the DNA analyst?
[00:17:48]  Right.
[00:17:49]  So, you know, I mean, I think initially people think, oh, he has gloves on.
[00:17:54]  He's not going to leave his DNA.
[00:17:55]  Well, that's simply not the case.
[00:17:57]  We know that people can leave DNA even when they're wearing gloves because people have a very common habit of touching their own face or hair or skin and other body parts.
[00:18:08]  So anything that wasn't covered, if he's touching it, if he's touching that flashlight in his mouth, now he has his saliva all over his hands.
[00:18:17]  So I would definitely be looking at points of entry, points of exits, doorknobs, light switches, bedding.
[00:18:27]  So let's say Nancy was in bed at this time.
[00:18:31]  Well, he may have gone up to her and shaken her shoulder to wake her.
[00:18:36]  If she's under the covers, let's look at those covers.
[00:18:39]  Anywhere that was touched on the covers, we have the potential to pick up DNA.
[00:18:44]  I would recommend using an instrument called the MVAC.
[00:18:48]  It's basically a wet vacuum that can pick up greater quantities of DNA, sometimes, you know, dozens of times more DNA than traditional swabbing or cutting of a sample.
[00:18:59]  So I would definitely want to MVAC that the bedding.
[00:19:04]  I've had cases, you know, it sounds like this guy was in there for a little while.
[00:19:07]  So I've had cases where people use the toilet and they don't always flush.
[00:19:14]  That could be a source of DNA.
[00:19:16]  Sometimes people get really comfortable.
[00:19:18]  These burglars break in and no one's home and they're having a drink of, you know, take a Pepsi or a beer from the kitchen and then they leave it on the counter.
[00:19:27]  So anything that's like out of place, appears to have been moved, would have had to have been touched.
[00:19:32]  That's the things they want to zero in on.
[00:19:35]  And then if they start seeing this same profile in multiple places that excludes any of the known people, then that they're going to have more confidence that they have the correct profile to really felt good and do that.
[00:19:47]  So if they found his DNA or someone, the same person's DNA, maybe on the remnants of the Nest camera in the front.
[00:19:54]  And then again, we have video of the inside of Nancy's bedroom that we found on the Today Show website from 2013.
[00:20:01]  So maybe you'd be testing that ornate and distinctive headboard that Nancy had in her bed, in her bedroom, or this little lamp.
[00:20:11]  Like you'd be going to all the little spots right around her looking for the common profile.
[00:20:17]  Exactly.
[00:20:18]  Because we do have to be careful.
[00:20:20]  You know, people are constantly bringing in DNA.
[00:20:23]  You know, yes, they've cleared her, the people that they know have contact with her.
[00:20:28]  But for example, if I just shook your hand, I probably have your DNA on my hand.
[00:20:33]  And then if I go and open a door, now your DNA might be on that doorknob, but you never touched it.
[00:20:40]  So we have to be really careful when we're talking about this trace or transfer DNA.
[00:20:44]  And that's why I say if we start seeing the same profile over and over again, we have a higher degree of confidence that we have the true perpetrator's DNA.
[00:20:53]  So good.
[00:20:53]  Okay, I want to bring in my expert panel here because I'm sure they have questions too.
[00:20:57]  James, you want to ask Susanna anything?
[00:21:00]  Yeah, fascinating, by the way, and good to see you again.
[00:21:03]  And I think Susanna makes a good point, which we were talking about last week.
[00:21:07]  And I think a lot of people weren't confused about when we had the neighbor being mouth swapped.
[00:21:14]  And I think Susanna can back me up, but I think they did that so they could exclude her, her DNA, if it was found in the home.
[00:21:21]  They're just looking to exclude folks that may have been in the house.
[00:21:24]  That's why when we heard about it, we were like, why would they swab the neighbor's mouth?
[00:21:29]  Susanna, I have two questions for you, but would that make sense that that's why they did it?
[00:21:34]  Yes, absolutely.
[00:21:36]  If they want to be able to eliminate any unknown profiles that are in there.
[00:21:42]  And sometimes that helps work with mixtures.
[00:21:44]  Like let's say her DNA, even if she's eliminated, if her DNA is present on something, if we know that we can sort of back that person's DNA out, that then helps us to isolate the profile that we're really after.
[00:21:58]  And how difficult you were talking about, a tool that you would recommend.
[00:22:02]  I think you described it as some type of vacuum.
[00:22:05]  But would Pima County, are you familiar enough with Pima County to understand, does their crime scene have those type of capabilities?
[00:22:13]  I don't know if Pima County has it.
[00:22:15]  I will tell you that a number of law enforcement agencies do.
[00:22:19]  I do know that, for example, the Florida lab that has been discussed, DNA Labs International, that is doing the testing, I know that they do have an MVAC.
[00:22:28]  They were one of the early users of the MVAC.
[00:22:31]  So the MVAC is portable.
[00:22:33]  If Pima County needed that, they could bring it out there.
[00:22:36]  Or on the other hand, certainly they could take the bedding, submit that to the lab, and then at the lab, the analysts can really focus on particular areas that they want to test.
[00:22:47]  Right.
[00:22:48]  And what do you make of the, you know, ostensibly, we don't have a suspect yet and it's been quite a while.
[00:22:55]  What do you make of the, you know, no DNA match to any type of database, either CODIS or, you know, 23andMe or genealogy?
[00:23:04]  I mean, let's say there isn't a match.
[00:23:05]  What would you make of something like that?
[00:23:08]  You know, I mean, CODIS, maybe not terribly surprising.
[00:23:13]  That's going to be only convicted offenders, maybe some other forensic unknown profiles.
[00:23:19]  Now, Arizona is one of the states that allows for arrestees.
[00:23:23]  So people who have simply been arrested of certain felony offenses, their profiles go into the database.
[00:23:30]  And not all states are like that.
[00:23:32]  So that does open up another category to search.
[00:23:35]  But if this person hasn't ever been arrested or convicted of a serious crime, they're just simply not in the database.
[00:23:44]  So I do think once we've cleared the CODIS database, I think that the next possibility is genealogy.
[00:23:53]  Now there are certain racial groups that are overrepresented in the commercial genealogy databases, Caucasians, many more Caucasian individuals than other racial groups.
[00:24:04]  So it's easier to find someone with a relative if they are Caucasian.
[00:24:10]  I think I heard a stat.
[00:24:11]  It was like 90% solve rate if you have a single source Caucasian profile.
[00:24:18]  So it can be more challenging if the person is of a different racial background.
[00:24:23]  It doesn't mean impossible.
[00:24:25]  I mean, for example, this glove that was found, which I was kind of surprised they were focusing on because it was so far from the scene, but you never know.
[00:24:34]  There could have been other information that they really thought it was connected.
[00:24:38]  But look, it worked, right?
[00:24:40]  They got a DNA profile.
[00:24:41]  It didn't match anyone in CODIS, but they did genealogy and they did find who that was, right?
[00:24:48]  The restaurant worker.
[00:24:49]  Exactly.
[00:24:50]  So it works.
[00:24:51]  It's just finding the correct DNA profile to focus on.
[00:24:55]  It's not as easy as we'd like it to be.

=== Concerns Over Crime Scene Contamination (13:15) ===

[00:24:57]  And the problem in, I'll bring you in one second, Will, but the problem in getting, they'd love to have access to that 23andMe and Ancestry.com.
[00:25:04]  They'd love to be able to run any of these samples in comparison to those.
[00:25:08]  But there's a policy at those entities, at those companies that does not allow it because they know that nobody would sign up for this.
[00:25:16]  Like not nobody, but fewer people would give their DNA over if they thought it was also going to be accessible by law enforcement.
[00:25:23]  We're naturally, we're Americans.
[00:25:24]  We're naturally skeptical of our government.
[00:25:26]  And also, you know, you don't want your brother to get arrested.
[00:25:31]  A lot of us are like, I don't want to make it any easier for my family members to get arrested.
[00:25:36]  But they did do it.
[00:25:37]  Like they did it in Kohlberger and it was a big deal because they weren't supposed to.
[00:25:41]  And then the defense attorney in Kohlberger made Ann Taylor, she made a big deal out of this saying that the whole DNA analysis should be thrown out because they access those databases and they shouldn't have.
[00:25:51]  But it's not a law that you can't go into those.
[00:25:55]  It's a policy.
[00:25:55]  And if you can get them to violate their policy, then great.
[00:25:58]  And that's why some people have been saying, correct me if I'm wrong on this, Susanna, that Savannah Guthrie should go to Ancestry.com, who, by the way, is a huge participant on the Today Show.
[00:26:08]  When I was there, we had an Ancestry.com segment every three days to say, will you please bend the policy and let us run DNA comparisons against your.
[00:26:18]  Now, so they may already be doing that, Susanna, right?
[00:26:21]  Like they wouldn't publicize it.
[00:26:22]  They would not broadcast it for all the reasons I just said, but it's possible that they are cooperating.
[00:26:28]  Yes.
[00:26:30]  Short of, you know, knowing what I know about the Koberger case, I would say, oh, no, they're not going to do that because this is the DOJ's own interim policy on genetic genealogy, but they sure did it in that case.
[00:26:40]  And listen, I get, I see both sides of it.
[00:26:42]  You know, I get it why you would want to do that, but I'm kind of a rule follower and there are policies and things in place because what can happen, and I've seen this happen, it gets taken away for everyone, right?
[00:26:55]  So there used to be a YSTR database.
[00:26:58]  Yes, right.
[00:26:59]  But yes.
[00:27:00]  So there used to be a YSTR database, this sort of a family tree, a surname search.
[00:27:05]  It was publicly available.
[00:27:07]  People could go online and, you know, search, put in their YSTR profile.
[00:27:12]  Well, law enforcement found out about it about that and started searching.
[00:27:17]  And then they found the wrong person in a pretty high profile crime.
[00:27:22]  And then the company, which I think was Sorens, related to Sorenson, it was in Utah, they just took the whole website down.
[00:27:30]  So now nobody has access to it.
[00:27:31]  That's what I'm saying.
[00:27:32]  So that's scared.
[00:27:33]  Jane's worried that if we start going into these private databases too much, they will never cooperate and no one will ever get their DNA over and they will be rendered maybe not useless, but they will sort of stop in 2016.
[00:27:44]  March of 2016 or 2026 was the last time anybody willingly gave their DNA over because that's when it became so readily available to law enforcement.
[00:27:53]  So I get it too.
[00:27:54]  And I mean, I almost understand the Kohlberger thing.
[00:27:57]  It's like four college students were murdered in the course of 12 minutes by some serial maniac.
[00:28:03]  Like that, that one seems rather extreme.
[00:28:06]  You might actually bend the policy.
[00:28:07]  With respect to Nancy Guthrie, it's like, I don't know that this would rise to the same level of like, oh my God, you know, there's some massive serial killers on the loose.
[00:28:15]  We'll see.
[00:28:16]  Will, did you have any questions for Susanna or comments?
[00:28:20]  I do.
[00:28:20]  Megan, thank you again for the invite on the show.
[00:28:23]  I think one of the things that we were discussing last week, the three of us, was about the control of the scene of crime, you know, and how they were taping off this area and how well protecting or preserving they were of the evidence.
[00:28:38]  And that was one of our biggest concerns, particularly when they lifted, obviously, the tape around the property.
[00:28:43]  Literally, I think it was a day or two after the actual disappearance of Nancy.
[00:28:48]  And then there was that incident of one of the neighbor's dogs having a pee on the front steps of the actual property itself.
[00:28:56]  And so the question that I would have really for Susanna is: what question is there to the degradation of DNA integrity?
[00:29:06]  Is there?
[00:29:07]  Because one of the biggest concerns is if they were so haphazard potentially about controlling this scene of crime, what they were actually doing in terms of gathering that evidence, how well they gathered it, whether there could have been a huge amount of cross-contamination on that DNA, or is it precise enough that it will be preserved for a good period of time?
[00:29:28]  And how long would it last, do you think?
[00:29:31]  Right.
[00:29:31]  So DNA that's outside the home, if there was anything outside, for example, you know, that welcome mat that I think is probably still sitting there, that was an item if they collected right away.
[00:29:42]  What if the perpetrator with that mouth flashlight, there was some saliva that came out of his mouth and landed on the mat?
[00:29:49]  That would have been great.
[00:29:50]  At this point, I think it's probably useless because it's been sitting outside, it's exposed to the elements.
[00:29:55]  How many people have walked on that mat that have, you know, transferred or taken DNA, picked DNA up, put DNA down.
[00:30:03]  So that's going to be an issue for anything that's outside.
[00:30:07]  I don't think we have to be concerned about degradation, especially the inside samples.
[00:30:12]  So degradation refers to the breakdown of DNA where we're no longer able to get results because the DNA is sort of falling apart.
[00:30:21]  I don't think that's as much of a concern as cross-contamination or contamination from people walking through the house, people touching things.
[00:30:30]  Again, even if the investigators, the crime scene people have gloves on, there's something called investigator-mediated transfer.
[00:30:36]  Anything they touch with a glove and then touch something else, they could have picked up DNA from that one object and placed it on another.
[00:30:43]  So that is more of a concern to me.
[00:30:46]  Now, the DNA can last a really long time.
[00:30:49]  It can last days, weeks, months, even years, you know, depending on how well that area is cleaned.
[00:30:55]  You know, I had a case once where there was a CODIS hit on this.
[00:31:00]  It was a double homicide and there was DNA on the bathroom door where the murder had occurred.
[00:31:05]  And it was a male profile.
[00:31:06]  The same male profile was on the kitchen hand towel, hit in CODIS.
[00:31:11]  It couldn't have been him.
[00:31:12]  He was in jail for the past year.
[00:31:15]  So, I mean, DNA just can last a long time.
[00:31:18]  Wow.
[00:31:19]  Oh, that's very telling.
[00:31:22]  I have a question for you about, I mentioned in the intro, The ability to create a picture of a suspected perp without knowing who the person is.
[00:31:35]  So they test the DNA.
[00:31:37]  Let's say they go into the Nancy's bedroom and on her headboard, they find unknown DNA.
[00:31:43]  There's no hit.
[00:31:44]  In CODIS, they actually get the permission to run it through 23andMe and Ancestry.
[00:31:49]  No hits.
[00:31:51]  No idea who this is.
[00:31:53]  There is a company, I think there's more than one, but the one we featured at NBC was Parabon and Andrea Canning, who I work with there, by the way, like her.
[00:32:05]  Positive comment about NBC.
[00:32:07]  She's sweet.
[00:32:08]  She, they ran her DNA through Parabon, this company that does this, and they came up with like a profile of what she would look like, not based on what Andrea actually looks like, just based on the DNA.
[00:32:21]  Parabon does this service where they say, this is what this person, they can tell, like, oh, of Irish descent and possibly with like, you know, Spanish influence, whatever it is.
[00:32:31]  And look at what they came up with.
[00:32:33]  This is the actual Andrea on the right in the red.
[00:32:36]  And this is the profile of her that they came up with on the left.
[00:32:39]  It's amazing.
[00:32:41]  They have the general facial like structure.
[00:32:45]  The nose is close.
[00:32:47]  The mouth is pretty close.
[00:32:48]  The eyes are pretty good.
[00:32:49]  They've got the blonde hair.
[00:32:52]  I think this is incredible.
[00:32:54]  And that there was a lot they could tell about Andrea Canning without having anything other than an unmatched DNA sample to anyone.
[00:33:02]  So can you talk about that, Susanna?
[00:33:05]  Yeah.
[00:33:06]  So interestingly, that was the kind of the forebear of genetic genealogy.
[00:33:12]  So the same type of testing, it's the same data that they have for genealogy.
[00:33:18]  That is what is also used to find out things like hair color, eye color, ethnicity.
[00:33:25]  Do they have freckles or not?
[00:33:27]  Because it's all in your DNA, right?
[00:33:29]  So they're just looking at specific areas that they've already tested.
[00:33:33]  So Parabon, that's what they initially, that's what they were known for, was doing these sort of genetic composites.
[00:33:40]  Once JEDMatch, that private DNA database hit about 1 million profiles, they knew at that point they had a good chance of actually identifying people.
[00:33:50]  So they're the ones that started uploading these unknowns and getting matches once there were enough people in that database.
[00:33:57]  And it was because they already had all of these police agencies who had already done the composite profiles.
[00:34:04]  It's the same DNA.
[00:34:05]  They didn't have to do any more testing, just were searching it.
[00:34:09]  So do you think if they found DNA, let's say on Nancy's headboard and on the back door handle and on what's left of the Nest camera, like its cradle, which I think remains.
[00:34:23]  You don't know who it is, but you know it's the same DNA from the same man, let's say, that they could come up with a picture like that, that they could start determining ethnicity, hair color.
[00:34:36]  The freckles thing is crazy.
[00:34:37]  In my case, they'd be like, we can tell you for sure she cannot do directions in a car and she's very bad at facial recognition.
[00:34:46]  I'm convinced this is a genetic problem I have.
[00:34:48]  But would they be able to do that?
[00:34:51]  Assuming it was not a mixture or not too much of a mixture, yes, they could.
[00:34:56]  Wow.
[00:34:57]  Oh, that's so interesting.
[00:34:58]  All right, Susanna, this is, you've been awesome.
[00:35:01]  Final question for you.
[00:35:02]  Do you think that DNA will solve this case?
[00:35:07]  Yeah, I do think that there's a good chance of it.
[00:35:10]  I feel like it's almost like a needle in a haystack at this point, right?
[00:35:14]  I mean, we have this, I'm sure there have been so many samples collected and the lab is probably working on them or has already gotten results.
[00:35:23]  And as you said before, there can be a lot going on behind the scenes that we simply don't know about, right?
[00:35:29]  So it's very possible that they already have a profile isolated and now they're doing that genealogy step.
[00:35:36]  And that can be very time consuming.
[00:35:38]  You know, if someone isn't in the database, their close relatives aren't in the database, the further out the relatives are, the longer it takes to be able to build that family tree.
[00:35:49]  So that very well could be going on behind the scenes right now.
[00:35:53]  I remember Cece Moore explaining that she would go, she would pull birth announcements, she would pull marriage announcements, death announcements to try to like, it's a painstaking process because they really do have to create the whole family tree around the person who's, who they did get the hit on, like this sixth cousin, you know, twice removed.
[00:36:12]  You know that this person's in the database and is somehow related to your perp.
[00:36:16]  But to find the perp, it's this huge spider web around this person.
[00:36:20]  You've got to figure out their whole life.
[00:36:21]  Who got married to whom?
[00:36:23]  What are the other offspring?
[00:36:24]  Who are this person's cousins?
[00:36:26]  Where did they move?
[00:36:27]  Like it's, it takes a long time.
[00:36:28]  You're right.
[00:36:29]  So this could be happening.
[00:36:30]  We're praying that it's happening and that they have enough DNA in this house to go by.
[00:36:35]  And sorry, I should have asked this, but you were saying before, even though this guy was covered head to toe, you think he left DNA?
[00:36:41]  I do, especially given the amount of time they think that he was in the house.
[00:36:46]  I just knowing what I know about how easy it is to get DNA, you know, for example, in the laboratory, we're constantly wiping down surfaces with bleach.
[00:36:55]  We're putting down fresh paper, changing our gloves.
[00:36:57]  I'll go through a box of gloves on like one item of evidence because I don't want to transfer DNA.
[00:37:03]  It's so sensitive.
[00:37:05]  So if you have someone, and still rarely, of course, but it can happen even in the laboratory, right?
[00:37:12]  So if you have these protective equipment and things that are going on in the lab and you can still occasionally transfer DNA, think about how easy it's going to happen in real life.
[00:37:23]  And the longer he spends there, anytime he's touching anything, even that mask that he has on, his DNA is going to be sort of sloughing off the skin cells on that mask.
[00:37:36]  And DNA doesn't just stay on one, you know, it's not going to just stay on the inside of the mask.
[00:37:41]  It's a tiny little cell.
[00:37:42]  It's going to go through to the outside and he could be picking up DNA from his mask, from his clothes, you know, so it's very easy to transfer DNA.
[00:37:52]  And even though he was covered, I do think that there's a good possibility he left DNA behind.
[00:37:57]  Gosh, you make a good point, though, about that welcome, Matt.
[00:38:00]  It's too bad that was still sitting there, right?
[00:38:01]  That was such a good observation.
[00:38:04]  What else was left behind that should be in an evidence bag?
[00:38:08]  Susanna Ryan, thank you so much.
[00:38:10]  Absolutely.
[00:38:11]  Thank you.
[00:38:11]  Appreciate it.

=== Transferring DNA from Clothing (02:38) ===

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=== Border Suspicions and Law Enforcement (16:00) ===

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[00:41:21]  Jesse Kelly, Real Clear Politics, and many more.
[00:41:24]  It's bold, no BS news only on the Megan Kelly channel, SiriusXM 111, and on the SiriusXM app.
[00:41:36]  James and Will.
[00:41:37]  How interesting was that?
[00:41:38]  Right?
[00:41:38]  That was good stuff.
[00:41:39]  Yeah, totally.
[00:41:41]  Fascinating.
[00:41:42]  Fascinating.
[00:41:42]  I learned a heck of a lot, I have to say, from Susanna.
[00:41:45]  She's certainly her subject matter expert, that's for sure.
[00:41:48]  Yeah.
[00:41:48]  She's testified in 140 cases, so she definitely knows what she's doing.
[00:41:53]  And maybe this really will be the way.
[00:41:55]  So I cheated up with her first because there's a place I'm going with this.
[00:42:01]  And it has to do with your theory, James, about this being potentially a South American BE crew breaking.
[00:42:10]  See, I'm like in the biz now, a BE breaking and entering crew.
[00:42:14]  Because you've been saying on this program for a couple of weeks now that you'd seen video of like these South American criminals who were breaking into homes.
[00:42:25]  So we finally went and pulled what you were talking about.
[00:42:29]  And this is my new number one theory.
[00:42:31]  You've got me.
[00:42:32]  Now that I see the video of these guys, I totally get it.
[00:42:35]  Well, you've got to look at this.
[00:42:37]  We pulled video of what James is talking about.
[00:42:39]  We have a few different episodes.
[00:42:41]  Here's one.
[00:42:43]  This is in, hold on a second.
[00:42:45]  This is video four, which is San Diego.
[00:42:48]  Okay.
[00:42:49]  They, for the listening audience, they look a lot like our perp.
[00:42:53]  They have a hoodie sweatshirt on.
[00:42:56]  They have black masks.
[00:42:57]  They have gloves.
[00:42:59]  They are pretty much covered head to toe.
[00:43:01]  They're clearly not wanting to be recognized and potentially not wanting DNA.
[00:43:05]  Now, here's another guy.
[00:43:06]  He's got like a, it looks like a balaclava that you'd wear skiing over your head.
[00:43:11]  You can only see the guy's eyes.
[00:43:13]  Now, here's another group sneaking onto somebody's back porch.
[00:43:17]  There's three or four of them in each of these videos, except, yeah, there's like they're together.
[00:43:21]  Now here, this guy, look, the backpack, the face covering, and there's another one we're going to show.
[00:43:29]  But they, I'm going to start with you on it, Will, because it's not your theory, but look at this guy.
[00:43:35]  This is in Tennessee.
[00:43:37]  He's got the backpack.
[00:43:38]  He's got the reflective thing on the front of the backpack or a light.
[00:43:42]  I can't tell which.
[00:43:43]  This almost looks like the actual guy who broke into Nancy's.
[00:43:46]  So your thoughts on it, Will.
[00:43:48]  Okay, so my initial thoughts, and James and I, we've discussed this at some length, and I think we're going to continue to argue the toss on this one.
[00:43:56]  My gut feeling is it isn't a B ⁇ E.
[00:43:59]  The simple reason being is the value of the contents of the house.
[00:44:03]  And secondly, the actual disappearance of Nancy's body itself, you know, her person.
[00:44:08]  It's vanished.
[00:44:09]  And without wishing to sound flippant in terms of the outfits that these individuals are wearing, it looks like a standard day in London, if I'm absolutely honest with you.
[00:44:18]  We get a lot of people walking around dressed like this.
[00:44:21]  So it's really about the fact that the disappearance of Nancy, which sort of conflicts me to fully buying into the BE theory.
[00:44:30]  You're on the, so you're on the FITS program of victimology is where you start.
[00:44:34]  Like, look at the victim, what happened to her, who would have the motive to hurt her.
[00:44:39]  That's how you solve the crime as opposed to.
[00:44:41]  And why remove her and why take her away from the property?
[00:44:45]  Yeah, go ahead, James.
[00:44:47]  Well, I was going to ask Susanna, you know, not having a DNA match so far, and they might have one.
[00:44:53]  Again, they're keeping this very close to the vest, what they do have, what they don't have.
[00:44:58]  But if you came in here on a tourist visa, you flew in from another country and you came in through a port of entry, we're not going to have your DNA.
[00:45:07]  If you haven't been arrested in the U.S., we're not going to have your fingerprints.
[00:45:10]  So all this DNA, if they're coming up blank, again, to me, that might point toward this theory of it was a criminal, transnational criminal group, and that's why we're not getting any DNA hits.
[00:45:23]  As far as the body, again, I'm with Will.
[00:45:25]  I wrestle on that a lot.
[00:45:26]  But I also know that these guys aren't stupid.
[00:45:30]  And it's very difficult for you as an American to understand how little human life can be valued.
[00:45:36]  And if you're from another part of the world where, and I've been there and so is Will, human life doesn't mean as much.
[00:45:41]  And take her, why?
[00:45:42]  Because there's evidence on her, just as Susanna pointed out.
[00:45:45]  There's trace DNA evidence all over her body.
[00:45:48]  So they took her.
[00:45:50]  That could be a theory that would explain why they did take the body.
[00:45:55]  But again, it is a theory, but a lot of things seem to be adding up.
[00:46:01]  Well, here's the other thing that's interesting about the theory.
[00:46:05]  You know, Jennifer Koffendaffer?
[00:46:08]  She's former FBI and she's a commentator frequent on NewsNation and on X.
[00:46:13]  And she was pointing out, she's a retired FBI special agent, that an FBI spokesperson has said, they said last month, that they're posting billboards in cities throughout Arizona, Texas, New Mexico, and California with pictures of Nancy.
[00:46:34]  You know, call it 1-800-Call FBI.
[00:46:36]  Now, you could just say those are the states around Arizona, Arizona and their surrounding states, or you could draw conclusions from this.
[00:46:44]  And here is what she asked.
[00:46:49]  While law enforcement doesn't have the DNA from Nancy's house entirely sorted out, she writes, do they have a DNA contributor's origin figured out, kind of like the paraben thing we were discussing?
[00:46:58]  Is the person of Mexican descent?
[00:47:01]  This is why I ask.
[00:47:03]  Billboards in California, Arizona, and Texas, particularly Houston.
[00:47:07]  These are all states, she writes, with large Mexican populations.
[00:47:10]  Just because the DNA has not identified the exact person, has the sex and ethnicity of any of the profiles in the samples been determined.
[00:47:18]  Culturally, many Hispanic men groom their eyebrows like women.
[00:47:23]  That's just a fact, she writes.
[00:47:24]  She continues, I am Hispanic, so I'm very familiar with this.
[00:47:28]  I bet that DNA has already provided some answers.
[00:47:32]  The FBI did not randomly choose where those billboards should go.
[00:47:37]  There was a reason.
[00:47:39]  What do you guys make of that?
[00:47:40]  I think there's every good chance that they may have some sort of profiling there in terms of ethnicity.
[00:47:46]  I think that's altogether possible.
[00:47:48]  My only concern is, and again, that's from principally working in the shadows, as opposed to, say, James and guys in the Bureau, is that when you have a cool 1-800 FBI, the likelihood of someone who may be connected to the individual or individuals responsible for Nancy's disappearance may feel a little suspicious about calling that line in the event that they could be captured or they could be identified through that process,
[00:48:17]  even though there may be assurances that they're going to be.
[00:48:20]  Well, but we're trying to figure out whether there's something to glean from the chosen states, right?
[00:48:25]  That Arizona, Texas, Houston, and New Mexico.
[00:48:31]  Did I say California?
[00:48:32]  Yeah, Arizona, Texas, New Mexico, and California, and in particular, concentration around Houston could be interesting news.
[00:48:39]  I don't know.
[00:48:40]  And like the thing about the eyebrows, James, you know, we all talked about that.
[00:48:43]  He does look like he has especially groomed eyebrows, Nancy's perp.
[00:48:46]  Though we've also been debating whether it just looks like that because the ski mask may be cutting off the top bushier half that most men would have.
[00:48:55]  You know, most men don't have perfectly groomed eyebrows like this guy appears to, but it could just be they're kind of sliced off by the mask.
[00:49:02]  Yeah, I remember when I was first with you, I thought it might be a woman just based on the eyebrows, but I think Jennifer is making a good point there.
[00:49:10]  And the other thing I just wanted to comment on was that I've seen two stories now.
[00:49:15]  The one you just showed about the billboards, which is called this 1-800, you know, general FBI number.
[00:49:20]  And then there was an article in the New York Post this morning about FBI agents recanvassing the neighborhood, asking about two particular days.
[00:49:29]  And what I'm not seeing here is any mention of task force.
[00:49:32]  I'm not seeing any mention of Pima County.
[00:49:34]  So you would believe that the FBI alone is working this case, which we know is not the truth.
[00:49:39]  So what is happening?
[00:49:41]  Is the FBI getting information?
[00:49:43]  Pima County is getting information.
[00:49:45]  And then how are we getting this together as a symbiotic or a task force type of investigation?
[00:49:52]  To me, it still seems bifurcated.
[00:49:54]  It seems like the FBI is over here doing something and Pima County is over here doing something.
[00:49:59]  And I don't like to see that at all.
[00:50:00]  I would have loved to have seen that, hey, the task force was here, the Nancy Guthrie Task Force, made up of Pima County, FBI, even Arizona State Police, but I'm not seeing any of that.
[00:50:11]  So I think it's interesting.
[00:50:13]  Well, what do you make of the fact that the sheriff was out there, Will, a couple of days ago saying he thinks he knows the motive in the case and that he's had a strong suspicion Suspicion about it from the beginning, and there's absolutely nothing that's that steered him off of that suspicion.
[00:50:26]  What?
[00:50:28]  What is it?
[00:50:29]  Like, why wouldn't you be sharing that?
[00:50:33]  To be honest, the sheriff is beyond comprehension in my book right now, Megan.
[00:50:37]  I mean, anything that comes out of his mouth is trivial as far as I'm concerned, and there is no substance or credibility.
[00:50:43]  So it's just white noise running in the background.
[00:50:46]  But to go back to your original question, which was about these billboards being put into particular areas, having worked a lot in Latin America and certainly working on missing persons and kidnapping cases, the one thing I do know is in Latin communities, they can be a very close-knit community, as they can be, for example, in Islamic communities in the Middle East.
[00:51:08]  They can be very close-knit.
[00:51:09]  They don't necessarily want to share information with the wider populace.
[00:51:13]  They may know and they certainly tend to know a little bit about each other's business.
[00:51:18]  So those locating of those billboards could be very relevant to specific ethnicities and specific communities.
[00:51:25]  But again, there is a suspicion of law enforcement.
[00:51:28]  There's a suspicion of federal agencies.
[00:51:30]  There's a suspicion of the government, which may in itself be counterproductive, although it's a great gesture.
[00:51:37]  Sometimes it can be better to try and disguise these things in a different way, make it slightly less confrontational to invite people to communicate.
[00:51:47]  What do you make, well, of the fact that there's no, sorry, sorry, quick point, that there's no picture of the perpetrator on the billboards.
[00:51:53]  Like there's a picture of Nancy.
[00:51:55]  I'm like, okay, great.
[00:51:56]  But like, aren't we actually trying to find somebody who might recognize that guy?
[00:52:00]  I realize it's not exactly like a high school graduation photo, but there is a decent image of him from those from the video release by the FBI, and it's not on the billboards.
[00:52:09]  Absolutely.
[00:52:10]  I mean, and again, it's who's serving the purpose here.
[00:52:12]  It's a huge, huge sign.
[00:52:14]  Why isn't there a full-length picture showing his physique, or as far as we can deduct his physique from what he was wearing?
[00:52:22]  The face, the eyes, even the weapon that he was wearing and the holster that he had that weapon contained within.
[00:52:30]  You know, there's a lot of information about the perpetrator.
[00:52:32]  I mean, in the same way as people will issue or law enforcement agencies will issue photo fits, you know, and impressionist drawings of suspects.
[00:52:40]  Again, anybody worth their soul, if they want to know what Nancy Guthrie looks like, then absolutely, yes, it could be useful to have that picture if she may have been seen with other parties, but why not have both?
[00:52:53]  Yeah, because the odds of this perpetrator, if Nancy is still alive, parading her around in public are probably very slim.
[00:53:01]  But this man is going to have to be out and about, and we presume is out and about right now, walking around living his life.
[00:53:08]  And somebody knows him.
[00:53:10]  Somebody knows him, but not everybody even knows that Nancy Guthrie was kidnapped.
[00:53:14]  You know, Jennifer was pointing out, remember, there was that pizza delivery guy who showed up to deliver a pizza to one of the independent journalists who was on site, courtesy of like, I think a viewer, who seemed totally unaware.
[00:53:25]  He's walking right into a crime scene.
[00:53:27]  You know, he went up and was like ringing the bell on Nancy's property.
[00:53:30]  Had no idea.
[00:53:30]  You know, most people are not obsessed with the news.
[00:53:33]  A lot of people don't ever watch the news.
[00:53:35]  Those are the happy people in life.
[00:53:37]  And it's very possible that they don't even know Nancy's missing.
[00:53:41]  But if you put a picture, yes, okay, she could be on it.
[00:53:44]  But if you put a picture of this perpetrator big on a billboard, it's tough to pull your eyes away from, even if you haven't heard about the case.
[00:53:50]  James, your thoughts?
[00:53:52]  Well, yeah, I think you're exactly right.
[00:53:53]  And I think it's a misstep, you know, from the FBI perspective, because to me, missing person doesn't resonate as much as abducted.
[00:54:01]  So if the words on the billboard were abducted, an exclamation point, that would get a lot, you know, I mean, great point.
[00:54:08]  Missing, right?
[00:54:08]  Missing person mean, okay, there's a lot of missing people, right?
[00:54:11]  Well, let's say abducted.
[00:54:12]  And then you're right.
[00:54:13]  Let's have a picture.
[00:54:14]  And you just said what all these other experts have been saying since this case started, which was what?
[00:54:19]  Oh, someone knows this guy.
[00:54:20]  And that's why they went up to a million dollars.
[00:54:22]  Well, someone knows this guy.
[00:54:23]  Well, guess what?
[00:54:24]  It doesn't look like anybody knows this guy or they're not talking.
[00:54:28]  And what, again, the reason you may not know this guy is he's not from here.
[00:54:32]  He is not from this area.
[00:54:35]  So that's the other thing I wanted to ask you about.
[00:54:37]  I raised this in our special yesterday.
[00:54:40]  Nancy Grace had on a tattoo expert, you know, a guy who's been doing tattoos for three decades.
[00:54:47]  And he said, because you can see a little bit of a tat on the perpetrator's wrist.
[00:54:51]  And he took a close look at it.
[00:54:54]  And there are shades of gray and black in there.
[00:54:57]  And he said, in his experience, that could very well be a Mexican.
[00:55:02]  It could be a Mexican gang member who he said they use this exact shading, like the gray is an odd choice.
[00:55:11]  And he said, I guarantee you that tattoo goes all the way up the arm.
[00:55:15]  He said it actually could go all the way up the neck or possibly even to the face.
[00:55:18]  And he said that is very common amongst Mexican gang members, that choice to shade and possibly even those who have been in prison.
[00:55:27]  He had a lot of thoughts on it, actually.
[00:55:28]  But that was the other thing that made me think of you, James, and your theory.
[00:55:32]  Yeah.
[00:55:33]  Again, it sounds right to me.
[00:55:35]  And where's the body?
[00:55:37]  Well, if they went 60 miles south, went across the border and put her somewhere, it's very, very, very difficult to find her.
[00:55:44]  And that's why we don't have the body yet.
[00:55:47]  How can you satisfy Will that these south of the border, you know, gang members would, why would they take her?
[00:55:56]  I can buy into James's suggestion that it is a south of the border team that have come in, whether it was for breaking and entering.
[00:56:03]  Again, it depends on whether there are particular items, anything that was taken from the property, in inclusion, obviously, to Nancy herself.
[00:56:12]  So, but it could have been a team, and James knows this.
[00:56:15]  Sometimes you get professional organized crime groups which will come across the border to conduct a snatch of an individual or to take someone for a kidnapping.
[00:56:24]  My only big question here is: what options have law enforcement taken to communicate with their counterparts across the border to see if there is any gang activity that they're aware of, any intelligence that they're aware of of any particular group that might have been or could be deemed as a viable prospect to carry out an operation like this?
[00:56:46]  I mean, Sheriff Nanny says that he has good contacts down there, which I would imagine because he's his, you know, two sons an hour from the border.

=== Organized Crime Teams Crossing Borders (13:09) ===

[00:56:52]  But, but, I mean, I get the skepticism because in those other cases we were showing, Patrick Mahomes was targeted by these gangs reportedly about a year ago, along with another football player, I think.
[00:57:05]  And okay, there you go.
[00:57:07]  But nobody ever got stolen, right?
[00:57:09]  So it's like they're looking to steal your high-end goods, not you.
[00:57:15]  Let me, if I could, Megan, just real quick, go into that.
[00:57:18]  And it is a very, very difficult thing for us to mentally try to understand the activity of these individuals.
[00:57:27]  Okay.
[00:57:28]  You, me, Will, we would not break into someone's house at two in the morning, right?
[00:57:32]  Because we just aren't that way.
[00:57:33]  But these folks do.
[00:57:35]  And so when we start to take our rational brain and try to, you know, put it into what are they thinking, it's a very difficult thing.
[00:57:42]  I worked a case in Nebraska as an FBI agent where a guy from South America, he shot and killed seven people in a bank.
[00:57:50]  He didn't take a penny.
[00:57:52]  He didn't steal a dime.
[00:57:53]  And when I asked him why, he said, because I could.
[00:57:56]  Okay.
[00:57:57]  Now, I can't even, I can't even fathom shooting seven people for no reason, but he did.
[00:58:02]  Right.
[00:58:02]  And so it's very, very difficult for us to, you know, to try to put our brain into their brain.
[00:58:07]  Oh, why do you take the body?
[00:58:08]  Well, it's hard for you to understand that because you've never been there, right?
[00:58:11]  They do things that will boggle the mind, right?
[00:58:15]  And it's very, very hard for us to mentally go there.
[00:58:18]  That's just not her experience.
[00:58:20]  My mom, who is, she spent her career helping veterans at the VA in behavioral health, mental health, she would always say, I cannot respond to irrational behavior rationally.
[00:58:31]  That's exactly right.
[00:58:32]  That's exactly what you're saying.
[00:58:33]  Like, we're kind of playing a fool's game here because, yeah, we would not be putting on the, you know, the outfit and the backpack and breaking into somebody's house in the middle of the night, never mind kidnapping a woman.
[00:58:45]  I want to play you guys a soundbite that Chad Ayers said, something he said on our show on episode two.
[00:58:52]  He broke some news here about this case and that he'd heard from, I'm presuming a law enforcement source that he said is very solid on the ground in Arizona.
[00:59:03]  Listen here.
[00:59:04]  As of about two hours ago, Megan, I can report from a very, very reliable source that is boots on the ground there that the FBI and the Pima County Sheriff's Office have no leads, no solid suspects.
[00:59:21]  What?
[00:59:22]  And this is from someone boots on the ground that I trust.
[00:59:26]  All right.
[00:59:27]  They have no solid leads.
[00:59:29]  I can also report that it has been confirmed this morning, and I'm sure we all assume this, that every family member passed polygraphs with flying colors.
[00:59:41]  The FBI has no suspects.
[00:59:45]  So he did want to clarify that it wasn't no leads.
[00:59:47]  It was no suspects, no suspects, and that the family not only passed polygraphs, but with flying colors, which we released this clip early because we wanted to get the news out there.
[01:00:00]  And many, many people chimed in saying that doesn't mean anything, right?
[01:00:05]  Like you can't admit the polygraphs in a court of law.
[01:00:09]  I'm kind of persuaded by it because just the thought, let's take the brother-in-law, for example, because there's been speculation about him.
[01:00:16]  The thought that this guy in a band and a part-time middle school teacher was able to beat the polygraph seems ridiculous to me.
[01:00:24]  So if he passed that thing with flying colors, I'm much more inclined to say, let's move on from the brother-in-law.
[01:00:29]  But you tell me, James, because you've had a career in law enforcement and I haven't.
[01:00:33]  Yeah, well, a couple of things.
[01:00:36]  Conclusive and inconclusive.
[01:00:38]  Any polygrapher, an examiner, is what they call them a polygrapher, is going to tell you that you're conclusive or you're inconclusive.
[01:00:45]  There is no such thing as quote pass with flying colors, end quote.
[01:00:49]  That doesn't happen.
[01:00:50]  Okay.
[01:00:51]  That means someone is conclusive, meaning they're telling the machine is indicating that their answers are conclusive.
[01:00:58]  Then there's inconclusive, meaning they're not sure.
[01:01:01]  Okay, so that's that.
[01:01:02]  And then the second thing is that maybe they don't have anything, but as close to the vest as Sheriff Nan, we have a story.
[01:01:10]  I think you reported it or I read it that Sheriff Nanos and two of his top deputies are the controlling people of this case, not the investigator.
[01:01:19]  Well, if they're making all the calls, that would make sense to me while Chad is hearing from law enforcement sources down way down the totem pole that they have no leads because they don't know anything because they're being kept at an arm's length.
[01:01:33]  That's my inference from what he's saying.
[01:01:36]  Either they don't really have anything or Sheriff Nanos and his two hand-picked guys are not telling a soul.
[01:01:43]  And if it is Sheriff Nanos controlling the information, then you have to at least put an asterisk after the polygraph information because he clearly, I mean, in my view, was leaned on by the Guthries to say the family's exonerated.
[01:01:57]  They're not suspects.
[01:01:58]  And then when everybody said, how can you say they're exonerated when you don't have anybody under arrest?
[01:02:04]  He then took steps back from that and said, well, they're not active suspects at this time.
[01:02:10]  It was like, all right, well, which is it, right?
[01:02:13]  So I don't know, but what do you make of that bit of a scoop there?
[01:02:15]  A scooplet, as we call it in the news.
[01:02:18]  I mean, to me, it seems, I mean, I agree with James entirely on this, that there's a huge compartmentalization.
[01:02:26]  We've seen this from the outset, and Sheriff Nanos keeping everything to himself, wanting to use his own DNA testing labs, you know, although Susanna has obviously vouched for them and said they're very, very good and they can do the job.
[01:02:39]  But it's point scoring that we're seeing by Sheriff Nanos right now.
[01:02:43]  And I think this issue of substantive leads that he has right now, again, until such times he just breaks cover and actually tells us what those are, Megan, it means absolutely nothing.
[01:02:55]  And the danger that we've seen historically, like you said, about the brother-in-law being released, that there's big question marks over the integrity of the information that Sheriff Nanos is sharing and the false hopes that he's potentially sharing.
[01:03:09]  In the same way as he says, we're going to solve this case.
[01:03:13]  He can't say that with any resolute conviction.
[01:03:17]  So we still have no faith in the sheriff.
[01:03:20]  But one of our guests was pointing out: you know, we are just being impatient, right?
[01:03:27]  Because we're still, it's like, we're not even 50 days into the case.
[01:03:31]  And a lot of these big murder cases take months and months and months and sometimes over a year to solve.
[01:03:38]  Like Maureen really believes that he probably knows who he thinks it is.
[01:03:45]  And she believes he's building a cage around this person, you know, bit by bit, like evidence and evidence, but it takes time.
[01:03:53]  So how do you like that theory?
[01:03:55]  Or do you think, James, he's as clueless as he looks?
[01:04:00]  No, I don't know him.
[01:04:01]  And, you know, Maureen, if she believes that, that very well could be happening and it's methodical.
[01:04:09]  But again, that's a murder investigation.
[01:04:11]  I thought we started out with an abduction, missing person, kidnapping, live body situation, which is, again, like I've talked about, there's a lot more speed, there's a lot more attention, there's a lot more, you know, sense of urgency.
[01:04:24]  But if we're building a case on an individual and it's going to take a long time, well, okay, that is a theory.
[01:04:31]  And I certainly hope that that works out.
[01:04:32]  And I certainly hope we find the perpetrator.
[01:04:36]  But I don't think we're being impatient.
[01:04:38]  I think that the statistics on an 84-year-old woman, my friend, you know, Jim Gagliano was talking about this the other day.
[01:04:45]  I think it's less than 1% of the kidnappings in America are of that age group.
[01:04:51]  And so it's extremely rare.
[01:04:52]  And that's why we're all kind of looking like, where is she?
[01:04:56]  Where is this person?
[01:04:57]  This is not the norm.
[01:04:59]  And I don't think we're being impatient at all.
[01:05:02]  And last thing I would like to say is, and I know I probably shouldn't do this, but sometimes if you look at the comments of people who either watch your show or on some social media that I'm on, they'll say things like, why do we care?
[01:05:15]  This story is being dragged out.
[01:05:17]  Well, we care because we all have mothers and we all have 84-year-old, you know, a lot of us have mothers of that age group, but we don't want to live in a country where an 84-year-old can just be taken and nobody, no leads, no nothing.
[01:05:32]  This is America.
[01:05:33]  That's the story.
[01:05:35]  That could happen to my mother or your mother.
[01:05:37]  And first of all, it's callous as hell to say that.
[01:05:40]  Then people will say, why do we care?
[01:05:42]  Well, that's why we care because I want to live in a country where an 84-year-old isn't taken from her bed at two in the morning and we can't find her body.
[01:05:49]  Yes.
[01:05:49]  Thank you for saying that.
[01:05:50]  I feel the same.
[01:05:51]  We've done a lot of work on the case of missing baby Lisa Irwin, who was taken from her crib at 10 months old out of Kansas City, Missouri.
[01:06:00]  And it's just, she vanished into thin air.
[01:06:03]  She was never seen again.
[01:06:05]  No leads, didn't track anybody down.
[01:06:07]  All this time later, still missing.
[01:06:09]  She could still be out there.
[01:06:10]  There was never a body found.
[01:06:11]  There was never a perp.
[01:06:12]  Same thing, right?
[01:06:13]  Well, it's like, no, we can't, we can't live in a society where an 84-year-old is stolen out of her bed, where a 10-month-old is stolen out of her bed.
[01:06:20]  And the Lisa Irwin case, forgive me for putting it this way, but like, at least it made some sense.
[01:06:25]  Like a baby is valuable, you know, in terms of commercial sales.
[01:06:31]  I'm sad to say, but you could sell a baby on the black market.
[01:06:35]  An 84-year-old, you cannot sell.
[01:06:37]  So like this one is even more mysterious.
[01:06:40]  Yeah, absolutely.
[01:06:41]  And I think also where your show is doing a huge service to this particular case is, and I'm sure James will agree with me and probably most of your other guests that you've had on, is the distinct difference between what one sees on TV, on Netflix, of crime thrillers and everything else, which gets solved literally within one hour's episode, to the reality of what actually goes on, the complications, the complexities of these cases, the various different strands, tenuous or otherwise,
[01:07:11]  of evidence that then have to be sifted through.
[01:07:13]  This is, you're, I think, showing a perfect profile of how a case like this, which is most unusual and could potentially happen to any one of us, would be potentially conducted.
[01:07:26]  What are the considerations that are being made?
[01:07:28]  So I think this sort of forensic analysis that you're doing, Megan, on this, I think people should actually pay attention to to actually see what the reality is really like.
[01:07:38]  Well, we're lucky to have guys like you who actually know what they're talking about.
[01:07:42]  One last thing I want to hit on, and that is tomorrow we're going to have on Ashley Banfield and talk about where her reporting is right now and all of this.
[01:07:50]  But one of the things she's been focused on is Annie Guthrie's car.
[01:07:55]  We first learned from Ashley the first week that Nancy was missing that the authorities had impounded, towed, whatever, Annie and Tommaso's car.
[01:08:04]  This is Savannah's sister and brother-in-law.
[01:08:07]  The car was just returned this past weekend.
[01:08:10]  We're talking six weeks that they've had her car impounded.
[01:08:15]  Other cars were taken and returned already from other people.
[01:08:19]  So like well in advance of this.
[01:08:20]  So what does it tell you, if anything?
[01:08:23]  I think that makes sense that they would have it longer.
[01:08:25]  They probably went much deeper with that with regards to any type of evidence collection with all kinds of different tools that, you know, not only Pima County, but the FBI might be recommending.
[01:08:37]  And therefore, that equipment may be hard to find and it takes a while to get it there.
[01:08:42]  I'm not terribly surprised by the length that they held on to it.
[01:08:46]  They want to make sure.
[01:08:47]  And that makes sense to me.
[01:08:49]  Why they gave up the other vehicles that quick.
[01:08:51]  I'm with you.
[01:08:52]  I don't know.
[01:08:53]  I don't know why these people were let go or even taken in or detained.
[01:08:58]  The sheriff would understand that.
[01:09:00]  But I don't make a lot of it being a long period of time.
[01:09:03]  I think it was just further testing and that takes a while.
[01:09:05]  And they wanted to make sure they got as much as they possibly could from the vehicle before they returned it.
[01:09:10]  Okay.
[01:09:11]  So that one doesn't jump out at you.
[01:09:13]  To me, that seems like a long time, but I don't know what they do.
[01:09:17]  And, you know, like you point out, it was the thing that Nancy was last seen in.
[01:09:21]  Yeah.
[01:09:22]  I mean, it's a bit like phone forensics, for example.
[01:09:25]  It can be done actually relatively quickly.
[01:09:27]  If it's done in the private sector, you could turn it around within one day, but it's not uncommon for law enforcement to hang on to people's devices to do the forensic imaging on them.
[01:09:37]  And it could take weeks, sometimes months.
[01:09:41]  Okay.
[01:09:42]  Well, we don't know what direction they're going in.
[01:09:46]  All we know is Sheriff Nanos is now saying he believes he has a motive and that whatever's happened since day one has confirmed his early suspicions about who likely did this.
[01:09:57]  Whether he will share that with us remains to be seen.

=== Riverbend Ranch Health Choices (02:32) ===

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[01:10:06]  Their steaks are not only delicious, they also contain real, high-quality protein that helps fuel your body.
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[01:10:13]  It contains all nine essential amino acids your body needs to function.
[01:10:17]  It also keeps you fuller for longer, reducing cravings and snacking.
[01:10:21]  But here's the key: not all beef is created equal.
[01:10:23]  The quality of the beef depends entirely on how it's raised and where it comes from.
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[01:11:01]  You guys are so great, Will and James.
[01:11:03]  Thank you.
[01:11:03]  Thanks for being here.
[01:11:04]  Great being with you.
[01:11:05]  Thank you, Megan.
[01:11:06]  Thanks.
[01:11:07]  And thanks to all of you for listening.
[01:11:08]  Tomorrow, as promised in part four of our series, Ashley Banfield will be here.
[01:11:12]  She's been all over the story from day one.
[01:11:15]  Where does she think the investigation is going?
[01:11:18]  She'll be here to tell us.
[01:11:19]  You won't want to miss that.
[01:11:20]  Thanks to all of you for being with us too.
[01:11:23]  Thanks for listening to the Megan Kelly Show.
[01:11:25]  No BS, no agenda, and no fear.
[01:12:05]  Marshal's, en ny serie på Sky Showtime.
[01:12:08]  I fought every day to get out from under the way to the Yellowstone.
[01:12:10]  I haven't tried to find a new beginning.
[01:12:12]  Next chapter in the story of Casey Dutton.
[01:12:15]  Casey, I need my marshal.
[01:12:17]  A explosive new story from the director of Yellowstone.
[01:12:21]  I know that sometimes good men have to do bad things.
[01:12:24]  Dutton's are all born with a killer on stage.
[01:12:26]  But you're not a killer, Casey.
[01:12:28]  You're a protector.
[01:12:29]  Marshalls, a Yellowstone story, stremno, but Sky Showtime.