Myron Gaines critiques OPEC's erosion as the UAE exits, signaling a shift away from U.S. security guarantees toward China and Russia. He argues that Gulf states' $1 trillion investment in America makes Middle Eastern wars economically disastrous for them, contrasting this with a Pentagon hearing where officials request a $10 trillion FY27 budget to transform defense acquisition into a business model. Ultimately, the episode suggests that geopolitical realignments threaten the petrodollar system while military expansion attempts to reverse systemic decay without addressing the existential threat Iran poses. [Automatically generated summary]
Transcriber: CohereLabs/cohere-transcribe-03-2026, WAV2VEC2_ASR_BASE_960H, sat-12l-sm, script v26.04.01, and large-v3-turbo
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Wake Up Boys00:08:34
Every single time
wanna bring up Gaza and the East.
Good morning, motherfuckers.
You already cook or what?
Good morning.
Wake up, boys.
Wake up, boys.
I'm here to rescue y'all from the Hasbara police over at Peabody at Glen Beck.
But before we do, what am I going to do now?
I don't want to lose everything.
Someone, please help me.
to cook, boys.
Better go after this one.
Let's go.
They're talking about OPEC.
The fuckers
wake up being
forgiven.
I'm sorry, boys.
We're live Welcome to the stream.
We're going to hop right into it.
Fix the camera, got a whole other thing.
They're talking about OPEC.
Let's go into it.
Before we get into it, what is OPEC, real quick for you guys?
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, is an intergovernmental organization and cartel enabling the cooperation of leading oil producing and oil dependent countries in order to collectively influence the global market and maximize profit.
In other words, guys, it's basically a bunch of oil bosses that dictate the price of oil so everyone turns a profit when they sell.
Let's get into it.
The economist.
NATO Is Not Important00:15:10
So, you mean to tell me you don't want your commander in chief to.
And as you guys know, the UAE recently or is going to back out of OPEC starting May 1st.
Now, this is pretty big news when it comes to energy.
And guys, excuse me if I'm a bit tired.
I didn't sleep yet.
I said, fuck it, let me just come on.
They're talking about OPEC.
They're talking about the energy crisis.
Let's go.
Absolutely not.
I want the Senate and Congress.
This is a major treaty.
A major U.S. commitment.
So you support.
Wait, wait, a major commitment of them to the U.S.?
Yeah.
I want to go back to the nice world where we had treaties that were ratified by the Senate and agreed to and lasted over multiple administrations.
We don't go back to Trump's in, Biden's out, Trump's in, Gavin Newsom's out.
That's a crazy way to run a country.
But that's the world we live in.
No, but wait a minute.
I just want to qualify.
The world of.
All right, let's see real quick what's going on with Glenn.
Achilles heel.
I hope that answers your question.
Let me see.
Let's go to Colt in Texas.
Hello, Colt.
A great name, only from Texas.
Hi.
Well, actually, that's not my name.
It's Pod.
He got my last name wrong.
But anyway, real quick.
Okay.
Benny almost got it right.
The subsidy is not taxed right off for investments.
That's not right.
Ruled by executive order that changes every four years.
Let's.
I'm not saying it's good.
I'm just saying that's to be pragmatic and realistic.
By the way, NATO is not that important anymore, anyway.
The focus needs to be on the Pacific.
Be careful.
You can upset it.
There's a point.
NATO is very important.
I told you, you got me fired up.
I told you, you got me fired up.
Tell us what NATO's not on.
Because originally, OPEC is not important.
You were saying NATO's not important.
No, what we should be focusing on is Japan, Philippines, Australia, Indonesia.
It should be a NATO or the Pacific.
That's where all the focus should be because that's where the flashpoints are right now, today.
So you like NATO and you want another one out on the other side of the world.
I'm with it.
Never going to happen.
China will never let that happen.
Yeah.
A lot of people don't know this.
China heavily invested in the Vietnam War.
Did y'all know that?
China heavily invested in Vietnam.
And what happened there?
No, the idea is what is NATO today?
Is NATO today what it's supposed to be?
It's supposed to be, I mean, understand in the Cold War framework of the pre 1980s or before the 1990s that NATO was essential, it was crucial.
I think NATO just antagonized Russia.
So I think NATO caused problems with Russia more than anything.
Was Russia ever going to really proactively do something against Europe if NATO wasn't working on it?
I'm sorry.
That is Putin propaganda.
We actually wanted to invite Russia to join NATO.
We want Russia to join the civilized world.
But that was back when George Bush looked into his eyes and saw Putin's soul or whatever that was.
It was actually when Bill Clinton looked into his eyes.
Well, you know what happened?
But what happened?
What happened, though?
Finish the story.
Who do you want to join?
You've got to join the club.
A little bit of democracy before you join NATO.
Actually, NATO is a little unsure about Turkey.
You want people on your side in NATO if you're going to.
I'm going to listen to this a little bit, guys, and if they don't go back to the Middle East, I'm going to rewind to where they were talking about OPEC.
I have a joint military.
So it's too bad Russia developed the way it did into a dictatorship oligarchy.
But you can't put Russia in NATO now.
It makes no sense.
We're basically at war with each other.
No, but if you put Russia, well, not now.
I mean, Pune had been offered to join Russia multiple times, and every president swiped them on it.
Listen, you know, there's never realistic.
I mean, let's face it, Russia was on a path to that direction anyway.
To which path?
To where they are today.
I mean, that was Putin's plan from the very beginning.
No, no, no, bullshit.
No, no, no.
Bro, literally, every president since fucking Clinton has promised two things.
To engage in diplomacy with Russia and to not expand NATO borders.
And they've always fucking lied.
Okay?
Putin invading Ukraine was literally the last straw.
But there's also the complete different faction that.
We were escalating like crazy.
Except Putin to join NATO.
People are going to be like, did you guys forget history why we started NATO?
No, we started NATO to basically keep funding the military industrial complex.
That's the real reason, bro.
That's the real reason.
It's a bullshit fucking, oh yeah, and the talk I want is bullshit.
What's the purpose of NATO?
It was against the Soviet Union.
Now that he is part of us, what the hell are we doing spending this money and relying on America to protect NATO?
It's a scapegoat to justify arms sales.
I'm with John on that one.
Putin wasn't going to join NATO to be a friend.
Putin was going to join NATO to undermine what I'm saying.
But before Putin.
This is Russia before, when Russia went to Putin, then kind of the die was cast.
No, they were being sincere because remember, they were weak after the Soviet Union collapsed in the early 90s.
So they were definitely amenable to diplomacy back then.
In the early 1990s.
I don't think there was a world where Russia became like what Poland is today.
Russian people want freedom, democracy, all the things.
They want us.
Like everybody wants us if they get the chance.
And there was a world where Russia would do that.
Okay, not really, dude.
Yo, let me be very honest with y'all, bro.
Okay?
And I'm saying this as an American that loves this country.
Not everybody.
Wants to hold on to American ideals.
I'm fucking sorry, bro.
Like, we got to get rid of this wild solipsism that our way of life is the only way of life and everyone wants to be us.
We are so fucking self centered, it's insane.
Okay?
That is not true.
Okay?
Most countries, even the poorest ones, have some degree of freedom for all the citizens.
Okay?
Become a regular country?
Heaven knows.
Join the European Union.
NATO would cease to be that important at that point because there's no Russia.
Maybe we'd be fighting against China or something of the sort.
But once the 97 currency revaluation happened, that was it.
Yeah.
There was no government.
About 97.
The die was cast and then it was forever.
Remember what James Baker said, though?
He said, if the Berlin Wall comes down, we're not going to expand NATO a foot past the Berlin Wall.
And they fucking lied.
I just sent you a chart, Rob.
And they lied.
I'm glad he brought that up.
We lied to Russia several times about expanding the thing.
And look, guys, let me be honest with y'all.
I'm no fucking Russia shill.
Let me be clear about this shit.
I'm no Russia shill.
But we have to be honest.
About why Russia invaded Ukraine.
We have to be honest about the Maidan Revolution.
We have to be honest about us interfering and putting in a puppet regime with Zelensky.
Okay?
We can't just like go, oh, Putin bad, and like not talk about everything beforehand.
Expanded.
That led up to that.
Well, past the Berlin Wall and all the way up to Ukraine.
And that was the red line where Putin started going to Ukraine when we started trying to put missiles into Ukraine.
Exactly.
So this guy gets it.
I don't know.
Would Russia have gotten aggressive if we didn't expand NATO all the way up to its doorstep?
Yeah.
Possibly not.
Definitely not, bro.
Definitely not.
What?
They want to get fucking sanctioned to hell?
They knew the risks of invading Ukraine at that point, but it was literally an existential crisis at that point.
It acted like an offensive alliance over the last 20 years, though.
He supports that.
No, I support the expansion of democracy, freedom, and the European Union.
Bro, get the fuck out of here with that.
Yo, yo, get this neocon out of here, bro.
Give this guy the yeet.
Bro, it's 2026, man.
This Bush talking point is not going to fool us no more.
Yo, this isn't fucking Fox News, okay?
Like, bro, Bush is not in office.
Bill Crystal ain't around.
Wolfowitz is fucking.
I don't know where that motherfucker is.
John Bowen got indicted.
Get the fuck out of here with this, bro.
Yo, these dudes still think we're in 2002, bro.
Like, what the fuck is going on here?
You're into Eastern Europe, which has been one of the most wonderful things in our lifetime.
Well, one person's democracy expansions and another person's aggression, encroachment on your doorstep.
I think there's a big difference in democracy between Poland and Russia.
What about what happened in Ukraine's governments?
Like, when we, they had a democratically elected president and then we went in and stirred up a riot and had them ousted.
Yup.
Okay, okay.
Okay, I'm real on it.
What he's referring to, guys, is the Midon Revolution back in 2014.
That's what he's referring to.
Gorbachev was a parachain guy.
By the way, just so you know, you have to know his background.
So, this is not a regular guy.
He's one of the only few people in the world that got a bachelor's in national security and a master's in national security.
That's his background.
So, this.
Okay, that's a horrible way to say someone is credible.
But, okay, I digress.
This is the argument.
This is the argument where now it's being had.
And for me, to be honest with you, I don't like the fact that they have gridlocked the president to not be able to threaten NATO that we can't.
Okay, do you guys want me to explain what the Midarin Revolution is?
Give me a seven in the chat if you do.
And leave because we're funding it and we're protecting everybody in NATO.
Who are the only three countries in NATO that have nuclear weapons?
Look, forget us, put us out.
That's only two others.
France and UK.
So who has the majority of it?
We do.
You know, they're kind of pushing around their weight, and then when we need them, you don't want to be there for us?
I have a problem with that.
Well, it was kind of nice that we had control over the nuclear.
And Europe is now figuring out, well, maybe Europe wants control of the nuclear.
Here's the problem in getting them to pay.
The guy who picks up the bill chooses the restaurant.
Back when we picked up the bill, we chose the restaurant, we picked the wine.
If they're going to pick up the bill, they have rights to do what they want with the money, and you might not like it anymore.
That's not how it works.
You're paying for water.
I'm paying for the bone and ribeye wagyu pee.
You ain't paying for nothing.
You paid for that little sorbet.
Two to 3% of GDP is couch change.
No great empire has spent less than 10% of GDP.
Well, pay the minimum.
Europe is paying 50% of GDP on social programs.
So, what's our problem, though?
Yeah, it's not our problem, bro.
Yes, yes, but 2% to 3% relative to 50%.
Even in the U.S., 2% to 3%.
Everybody's got to pull their little red wagon.
And if you don't, there's a negotiator that shows up and makes everybody uncomfortable.
By the way, go back to that chart again, Rob.
Go back to the chart.
Up until this Donald Trump guy showed up, nobody was paying their fair share.
That's also when this Putin guy showed up and showed up in Ukraine.
You think that's why they started doing it?
Absolutely.
All right, here's the mind on revolution, guys.
Basically, the revolution, also known as the Revolution of Dignity, took place in Ukraine in February 2014 at the end of the Euro Maiden protests.
Scores of protests were killed by government forces during clashes in the capital, Kiev.
Parliament then voted to remove President Viktor Yakovlevich, return to the 2004 Constitution of Ukraine, and call new elections.
The revolution prompted Russia to occupy Crimea, starting the Russo Ukrainian War.
A lot of people think this war started in 22, it really started in 2014, chat.
Okay?
And does this sound like familiar to what they did with Iran?
Stage a coup?
Do a regime change?
Put in a government that's more friendly?
Huh?
Operation Ajax?
Operation Bay of Pigs?
Sound familiar, chat?
Operation Rising Lion?
It's like, come on, dude.
This is the CIA fucking playbook right here.
I think that's why they started doing it.
Why weren't they doing it under Biden?
Why did Flatline under Biden then?
It took them about a year to get really serious about defense.
And Europe is now woken up.
What did Flatline under Biden?
Yeah.
And he was still invading.
No, no, no.
But this is good.
This is good that there's differences here.
I like it.
Let me get to our next one.
So now there's a meeting that happens at the White House with King Charles showing up.
Okay.
And what made this very interesting with the.
All right, let's go to Glenn real quick.
The subsidy is as follows.
Do you remember when the federal government started saying to ATT and Verizon and T Mobile, you want to put up that cell phone tower?
You have to pay for the electromagnetic airspace.
Do you remember that?
This is a problem.
This is a misunderstanding, and we should correct it.
I prefer the president, although I do prefer that he is out in the open, unlike Joe Biden, where they're hiding it.
I prefer that it's not directed by the president.
I prefer that it is something that is just the FCC takes care of because it's a clear violation, but I can't find a.
They 100% started because of the president, though.
Dude, by the way, guys, FCC launched an investigation into Jimmy Kimmel yesterday.
Tell me that's not obvious.
Over his jokes.
Be able to.
So help me out.
Look, bro, the jokes are retarded, but you know, launching an investigation over jokes is kind of crazy, dude.
Benny, sure, sure, sure.
So, let's attack this from three different perspectives, Glenn.
First, the moral obligations, then the regulatory obligations, and then what I did for Uno.
All right, let's go back to OPEC here with these guys.
Restricting output, the problem is getting the output out through the Straits of Hormuz.
So, this is to the Vol Conference.
If you're.com, if you can go to my Las Vegas, August 30, yes.
See, I told you guys his seminar is how he makes money.
See what he just promoted.
That's why he doesn't give a fuck about y'all in chat saying $7,000.
You know what I mean?
I got my seven, seven, seven.
That's why bro kisses the wall, man.
UAE to leave OPEC amid hormuz oil crisis.
All right, let's start cooking, chat.
Again, for those of you just joining, the news UAE, United Arab Emirates left OPEC.
What is OPEC?
It is the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
It's an intergovernmental organization and cartel enabling the cooperation of leading oil producing and oil dependent countries in order to collectively influence the global oil market and maximize profits.
So basically, These guys get together.
They all agree on pricing oil at a certain point and releasing certain amounts of barrels to ensure that everyone stays profitable.
Because at the end of the day, these oil companies have a fiduciary duty to their investors.
So they must be as profitable as possible.
Okay?
Is a blow to Saudi Arabia.
What do you mean?
Is this really happening?
Yes.
In the middle of everything that's going on?
Yes.
So the UAE announced Tuesday that it would exit the organization of the petroleum.
Exporting countries or OPIC, along with a wider group of partners known as OPIC, effective May 1st.
In what could be a blow to control over prices by the group long fed in practice by Saudi Arabia?
The move reflects the UAE long term strategic and economic vision involving energy profile.
Read an official statement carried by UAE State News as turmoil.
I'm watching at 125 speed.
If you guys need to slow it down, guys, you can slow it down.
In the Strait of Hormuz, continue to affect supply dynamics.
Reports that the UAE would leave have circulated for years, and the country has had disagreements with Saudi over oil production quotas.
President Trump has long criticized OPIC for its role in Determining global oil prices, calling it a monopoly during his first term in office, addressing the World Economic Forum in 2025, Trump urged OPEC countries to lower prices.
Rob, do you have a clip on this or no?
Because I see a yellow color here.
Economic Guarantees Needed00:11:23
It was just a news coverage for four years.
Okay, so we're good with that.
Jeff, where do you stand with the story?
Why is this such a big deal?
Well, it's a big deal because we got to go back to 2022, first of all.
Where this really comes from is when OPEC announced in 2022 as oil prices came down off the top, OPEC decided they wanted $100 per barrel oil.
They wanted that forever into the future, and they thought, well, okay.
No, they didn't decide that.
Russia invaded Ukraine.
Cut some supply back and get oil prices to firm up.
That's the real reason it went up in 22.
That was the big stimuli because Russia makes an enormous amount of oil for the world.
And then they had to sanction Russia.
You sanction Russia, can't buy their energy, can't buy their energy, price goes up because now you've effectively removed millions of barrels from the market overnight.
The global economy will pick up and will be $100 per barrel of oil forever forward.
Well, they made a huge mistake there because the economy never really came back and oil prices were soft the entire time.
So the UAE and all the other OPEC members were losing money for years because they were trying to reduce production but maintain price.
So revenues would largely normalize out and balance out.
But instead, what ended up happening is with oil prices softened and pumping less oil, a lot of these Gulf states are in big trouble.
Saudi Arabia is a big one.
So the UAE is finally saying, look, we need to correct this mistake.
They're doing better than the others, guys, because they have a pipeline that goes into the Red Sea.
Bet on the wrong horse here.
And we don't want to be beholden to the Saudis for continuing to make these decisions, especially if they're going to go in the wrong direction.
So, UAE, which has always had a rivalry with Saudi Arabia to begin with, what they're saying is look, this is.
So, here, so Saudi Arabia has a pipeline that goes all the way across the country and pumps right out to the Red Sea.
So, they're able to circumvent the Strait of Hormuz.
But the problem is that they're not able to get that many, that much volume of oil over to that side.
So, it's still, they're still operating at, you know, a smaller capacity.
This was the last straw.
Now, he's talking about a rivalry between UAE and Saudi Arabia.
The reason why there's a rivalry there, guys, is because.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are competing for the tourist market of the Middle East, okay?
Saudi Arabia is modernizing, legalizing alcohol, opening up clubs, allowing women to drive.
And what Saudi Arabia is trying to do is they're trying to compete with Dubai, which has the UAE, and bring more expatriates and tourism in so that they can slowly start to get off and wean off the energy dependent economy that they have.
We're done.
We don't want to be beholden to the OPEC cartel who has all sorts of non economic reasons for whatever decisions they make.
We'd like to just pump more oil.
We want more money flowing into the country.
They say they can get fiber.
You can't blame them.
No, that's what I'm saying.
Not at all.
So, I mean, what they're basically saying is we want to be more of a market based system.
We want to respond to market forces, not the political forces next door.
John, what do you stand with this?
Well, in the short term, the problem is not restricting output.
The problem is getting the output out through the Straits of Hormuz.
So, this isn't going to make a huge difference in the short term.
It's a longer term question.
And I get this 1970s feeling like, you know, get out the bell bottom jeans and the long hair.
Because when does OPEC matter?
We got the U.S. is a huge, we're the biggest oil exporter in the world.
That's irrelevant.
That's irrelevant that we're the biggest exporter of oil.
That doesn't matter.
And let me tell you guys why.
When you cut off certain countries' ability to sell oil, it inadvertently, or in some cases very inadvertently, spikes the price worldwide.
Why?
Because oil is a global commodity.
Also, just because we produce a lot of oil doesn't necessarily mean that our prices are going to drop off precipitously.
Why?
Because you got speculators.
And then on top of that, we can't actually, we don't have enough oil to consume and also.
Chip to other places.
On top of that, we are geographically diverse.
Sorry, geographically isolated.
The very thing that Keeser's protected from invaders and danger is the very thing that makes it difficult for us to effectively sell our oil at a fair price.
Okay?
So, this whole thing of we make our own oil, whatever, that's a bunch of fucking garbage.
Okay?
Let me prove it to you.
This is how we know it's a bunch of garbage.
If we were making our own oil, right?
And it didn't matter, why the fuck is Brent?
Sitting at 116 right now, bro.
Bro, and what I tell you guys, we're in that magic number we're getting close to 120.
Anytime we get closer to 120, you already know Trump's about to start freaking out, bro.
Russia, like them or not, they're a big oil exporter.
Venezuela is coming back online.
The North Sea, everybody in the world who has some oil is drilling like crazy right now.
So it's not clear to me that they have that much pricing.
35 to 38% comes from OPEC.
Yeah, yeah, of which a small fraction comes from the UAE.
So, you know, great.
I'm all for more oil supply, but it's not going to stop the immediate problem.
And it's going to be, you know.
Yeah, these guys are not addressing the biggest issue here.
Which I'm going to talk to you guys here in a second.
Less oligopoly in the long run.
It's not clear how much it is.
Who is upset by this the most?
Who does this impact the most?
Saudis.
In what way?
Tell me about what.
It's politics.
This is not really about oil necessarily.
I mean, yes, the UAE, like you said, this is a longer term thing.
So, yes, the short run disruption is the excuse to do it, but it's a longer term political project.
The UAE wants to run their economy the way they want to run their economy.
They want the Saudi influence and the OPEC influence on what they're doing.
Who does this benefit?
The United States.
Because supplies come to it.
And Japan and Europe, China.
They're so fucking wrong.
They are so fucking wrong for saying this benefits the United States.
I'm going to tell you guys why here in a second.
But I think on the political context, this helps the Trump administration.
Because what they're basically saying is, look, there's more to this story.
There is much more to the story that we're not.
So you think the Trump administration was involved in this?
Phone calls were made, negotiations.
It would be silly not to think that.
I'm kind of with you.
First of all, the UAE goes to Washington.
They were going to leave OPEC with or without the United States, dude.
Now, maybe they called or consulted, but yeah, this ain't it.
The IMF meetings a couple weeks ago.
A couple days later, we hear UAE asked for a dollar swap line with the Treasury Department, really through the Federal Reserve.
And then suddenly, a couple days after that, UAE says, hey, guess what?
We're out of OPEC.
So there has to be.
Dude!
The fact that they asked for a dollar swipe line is a problem.
That's not a plus.
That's not a plus.
To be financial guarantees.
They had to have top level discussions with the Trump administration saying, look, this Iran conflict, we're on your side here because Iran is, we're getting hit more than Israel.
You know, Iran's our enemy.
We need some security guarantees.
We need some financial guarantees.
We need some economic guarantees.
And by the way, we also probably need a dollar swap line too.
And the Trump administration said, yeah, okay, we understand you're under pressure.
We're here to help you, but what are you going to give us?
Give us something too.
The UAE said, I'll give you an easy one.
We'll get out of OPEC.
We want to leave anyway.
So it makes it, the UAE is moving away from the Gulf regime or the status quo in the Gulf and move forward the movement.
They were number three, number four, right?
Number one is Saudi.
Number two is Iraq.
Number two, it used to be Iran number three and then UAE, but I think UAE passed up Iran by like 100,000 barrels a day, whatever the number is.
And even on the OPEC list, I think Venezuela falls as number seven.
So it's funny how the U.S. has got the control with Venezuela that's on that list.
And then you can kind of, now that you get UAE out, there's a lot of leverage here for them.
Do you agree with Jeff's assessment on this?
Yeah, well, we're deep into Middle East politics, which bring your rug negotiating skills.
I kind of want the UAE and Saudi Arabia to get along.
I'd like UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Israel to get along and be unified about Iran.
So there's a lot of what are they going to do about Yemen and stuff going on there.
So, yeah, what a mess.
But competition in oil markets is always good.
Ryan.
Yeah, I think the bigger thing, the more concerning thing, is that they're dangling out the idea of accepting oil payments and something aside from the dollar.
They're talking about, oh, if we don't have enough dollars, we're going to have to take payments in Yuan.
And it was a couple of years ago, too, that even Saudi Arabia started floating around the idea of taking payments in Yuan.
I mean, I don't know how serious or feasible that is, but if that starts happening, then everything falls apart.
I mean, I think overall the decoupling of OPEC is a good thing because it's not something that's good for the market.
It's just like a controlled agreement between the biggest oil producing countries to have a collective agreed upon price of oil.
So I think, yeah, the detangling of that is a good thing.
But the notion of these countries taking payments and currencies other than the dollar, that's something that we have to fight against vehemently.
Did you see the oil tanker arriving in Japan?
Did you guys see that?
Did you see this or no?
No.
Oil tanker with 910,000 barrels of Texas light oil at a refinery near Tokyo.
Can you translate, Jeff?
I just want to make sure we heard.
Yeah, look at how long it took for them to do that, though.
This isn't a flex, bro.
910.
They had to go from the other side of the world.
1,000 barrels.
So these are the types of things where you're sitting there saying, wait a minute.
You ever wonder, you watch Trump, you're like, why is this guy just sitting?
We're going to attack.
He doesn't attack.
We're going to attack.
I'm telling you, we're going to attack.
He's not doing anything.
He's got the blockade.
He's kind of sitting around.
I was like, all right, take your time.
How long you can go with it?
The big picture, zoom out, big picture.
Again, the framework here is Cold War 2.0.
And what's really happening is the world is realigning.
The world is realigning away from, you know, we had an alignment during the Cold War.
It kind of went away in the 1990s and 2000s, and, you know, things got mixed up a little bit.
But the world is now realigning, and the Trump administration, at the very least, is recognizing the dangers as well as the potential opportunities.
And he's trying as hard as he possibly can to realign the world in a way that's more favorable to the United States.
So, John, you're right.
I mean, we love.
Yeah, but that's okay.
Saudi Arabia and UAE to get along.
I don't know if that's ever possible.
But this is part of it, you know, it's another chess piece on the board that says we need to move, we need to break down some of the blocks that have been not necessarily.
Against the United States in the past.
But OPEC has been a thorn in the side for quite some time.
Not tremendous, not huge, not a huge threat, but it's just been a thorn in the side.
So if you can break OPEC down into pieces and then realign some of those pieces that are more friendly to the U.S. national interest, that is a strategic goal that fits with the Cold War 2.0.
That tanker actually is a wonderful visual of the great power of supply and economics and substitution, all these things we keep saying.
Okay, so here's what they're not mentioning.
What we're slowly seeing here, guys, is the erosion of the petrodollar.
Okay?
That's what's really going on that no one's talking about.
Okay?
Though Trump has his grievances with OPEC, right?
And the oil mafia, what he doesn't realize is the UAE leaving OPEC and then asking, right, to do this like trade line thing, though it does benefit the United States and, you know, continue to prop up the dollar as the power of the dollar wanes off.
The UAE is not stupid.
The UAE understands for a long term strategy, they've discovered that the United States cannot protect them.
Okay?
As you guys know, Iran relentlessly bombed the UAE during this conflict.
The UAE got struck the most out of all the other countries.
I think somewhere between 1,000 to 2,000 different strikes.
Okay?
These strikes red pilled Iran and made them realize oh shit, the United States cannot protect us, despite the fact that we thought that they could.
These guys are full of shit.
And basically, what happened was the Iranians called our bluff.
They called our bluff.
So now, what the UAE is doing is what was a short term, sorry, a more long term project to advance in AI to diversify the economy has now become a sprint to diversify the economy.
And they have realized that they cannot diverse their economy with protection and security.
The way they want via a US umbrella of defense.
So, though on paper, it looks like Trump is winning.
Yes, we're still going to prop up our dollar.
They're still going to have these trade lines and et cetera.
Diversify Beyond Oil00:15:13
We're working with them.
You're missing the point that the UAE is slowly leaving our realm of influence.
Because if we can't provide them the protection for which they are the only reason they're dealing with us, what benefit is there for them to be allies with us?
Think about that, chat.
If, if, think of it this way, right?
Let's say, let me give y'all a.
Let me cook.
Let's say you buy, you have a security team.
You pay those guys 10K a fucking day, right?
You pay those guys 10K a day.
And all they have to do is ensure that you never get jumped or attacked.
That's all they got to do, right?
You pay these guys handsomely.
The one day that you're at the club, right?
Doing some shit.
You didn't have all your guys there.
And what's worse, one of your guards punched another dude and ran, okay, in the club.
The dude that gets punched sees you and then fucking punches you.
But your security that you're paying 10K a day is nowhere to be found.
They just ran.
They sucker punched a dude and ran.
Dude got up, seeing red.
He sees you.
It's on like fucking Donkey Kong, bro.
Qualcomm Punch!
You're getting your fucking ass whooped.
You're just trying to protect yourself.
You're five foot five, 100 pounds.
You got a lot of money, but you can't protect yourself.
Would you continue to pay those bodyguards?
Oh, let's make it even better.
You go home with a black guy.
Your bodyguard says, hey, nigga, okay?
Hello, monkeys.
He's a black guy, by the way.
Him and the other five are just sitting there.
Hey, bro, I know you got punched in the face and all, but hey, bro, you got to learn how to fight, man.
Wait, what?
I gotta learn.
Nigga, I pay you to do that.
Anyway, we'll see you tomorrow.
What time do you need us here?
10?
All right, make it 10 30.
We'll see y'all tomorrow.
We'll see you tomorrow, bro.
Peace.
Nigga, at least it's the same bitch that he was talking to the day before.
Now, let me ask you guys something.
Would you continue to work with that security team?
Would y'all continue to keep working with that security team?
Exactly.
My friends, that is precisely what is happening to the Gulf states.
And the UAE has the biggest black eye of them all.
So, what basically happened was now, just to bring this story more understandable for you guys.
Now, this scenario, let's add the OPEC portion.
So they tell you, oh, defend yourself, whatever.
Now, you don't want to fire all of them, right?
Because you still need security.
But what you start slowly doing is you start, you know, looking at other security companies, right?
You slowly start to wean off your main bodyguards protecting you and you start hiring other companies to help you.
Monday, you got your regular niggas.
Wednesday, you got a test run company.
Thursday, you got another company.
Friday, you got another company.
And you're like secretly testing how each different security team protects you.
And you start to realize these other security groups charge less, they're nicer, they're not dickheads, they're more professional.
And you're like, damn, okay, I'm gonna stop working with these guys.
It was good while I lost it, but these guys can't do nothing.
My friends, that is exactly what's going on with the Gulf.
We were the stupid bodyguards picking on bitches, aka Israel.
And now China and Russia are the new security teams that are looking to take that business.
That's precisely what's going on in the Middle East.
If I could give it to you guys in an analogous fashion, that makes sense.
Give me ones if that makes sense, dude.
Give me ones if that all makes sense.
And after you give me a one, make sure you like the video.
Nobody can explain this shit to you guys the way I do.
All right?
I'm going to have to self glaze for 10 seconds here.
Make sure to follow the channel.
Okay, y'all are not going to get content like this anywhere else.
Explaining this shit, complex geopolitical shit, in a simple way.
But this is where the Gulf states are.
This is why this discussion that they're having is kind of preposterous.
Because, yes, in the short term, this looks good for Trump, as usual.
But in the long term, the UAE is double dipping.
They're saying, look, we're still going to maintain our relationship with the United States, but they're looking for some other form of protection.
They're only continuing to deal with us until they find a better guarantor of security, chat.
So, this is actually very bad.
And not only.
Is the UAE doing this?
Saudi Arabia is doing this too.
Did you guys know that Mohammed bin Salman, the head of Saudi Arabia, the crown prince, did you guys know that he brought Zelensky down to teach these niggas how to do drones?
Yeah, yeah, you heard that right.
They brought fucking President Zelensky down to the Gulf, who's in the middle of his own war, by the way, that we're funding.
They brought that nigga down to teach them about drones.
Saudi Arabia is leaning into Pakistan for their defense pact.
But the problem is that Pakistan is also a great ally of Iran.
Qatar got bombed by Israel and isn't getting protected now.
Bahrain, same thing.
Kuwait, same thing.
The 13 US soldiers that died, died in Kuwait, actually, chat.
The F 15 that got shot down, got shot down in Kuwait, guys.
Two F 15s.
So, in the next year, within the next year or two, look at all the Gulf countries start to slowly move away from US influence and try to find another guarantor of security.
The analysis that these guys are giving is extremely short sighted because obviously they want to glaze Trump.
But the fact that UAE is leaving OPEC is for a far more ominous purpose.
Here's another thing for you guys.
Canada, another one of our allies, just met with China not too long ago.
Me and Cyrus Jansen were talking about this.
They didn't like that comment that Trump made about Canada lives because of the United States.
Japan is striking a deal, India is doing a deal.
All these guys are doing deals with Iran and maintaining relations with China, etc.
Do you guys need me to explain to you what the petrodollar is and why it's important?
I realize that some of you guys might be new here.
If you don't, we're just going to keep carrying on with the show.
Because I realize that I'm going in the morning, so there's probably a bunch of people here right now that never watch me live.
So, might be new.
Okay, I'll summarize it quickly.
The petrodollar, guys, was a deal, an informal deal that Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger struck back in the 1970s, where they would guarantee security for the Saudi royal family if they did the majority of their oil transactions in dollars.
Why is this important?
This is important because since gas or energy, oil, is a global commodity that everyone needs, if every country needs to buy oil from Saudi Arabia using US dollars, that increases the need for US dollars.
So every country needs to maintain US dollars to purchase oil, and that allows us, the United States, As the reserve currency to print money with almost no consequence.
Since we're the world's reserve currency and everyone needs our currency to buy commodities and oil, this puts us in an extremely advantageous position where our debt is fucking cheap.
This is a big reason why the United States is so prosperous.
This is why we have a debt based society in the first place.
So if we lose the petrodollar, we lose a significant amount of leverage on the world stage.
There's four main things that make up American strength.
And for all my guys in OSS and all the guys that are diehard supporters, I'm sorry I'm repeating this for y'all, but I realize that we got a lot of fucking new people in here, which is a blessing, but can also come off as somewhat redundant.
There's four main pillars that the United States builds its power on.
Number one, the petrodollar, like we just discussed.
Number two, reserve currency status.
This goes beyond oil and goes into the trading of commodities and resources.
Okay?
Number three, SWIFT.
SWIFT is also extremely important.
What is SWIFT?
SWIFT is basically a monetary tracking system where people that are doing deals in US dollars are basically subject to oversight so that if you're not a friendly country or you're dealing, doing business with a country that's not friendly, we can shut your payment processes off and fuck you up financially.
Okay?
That is what SWIFT is.
Think of it as like a gas, like a toll that you have to use, right?
That the US monitors to do financial transactions internationally.
Okay?
And last but not least, our military might.
Okay?
These four pillars are what make the United States a world power and had us as the unipolar power for so many decades.
The petrodollar, reserve currency status, which kind of go hand in hand, swift.
That's why our sanctions used to be so crippling.
And then, of course, our military might.
We spend more money on our military than the top 10 countries combined.
So the fact that one of these pillars is getting weakened.
Via our horrible foreign policy in the Middle East is a big problem.
Give me eights in the chat if all that makes sense and why this OPEC withdrawal from the UAE, though it looks good in the short term, is actually a big problem in the long term.
Them leaving has basically proven that the UAE no longer trusts us as a guarantor of security.
They did the whole trade line shit to not make it obvious that they're trying to get out of U.S. influence.
They did that just as a hedge and to play both sides.
But the writing's on the wall.
They know the U.S. can't protect them, and that is the sole reason why the U.A. had them there before.
Like I said with my bodyguard analogy for you guys.
All right, let's get back to this thing.
And I was pulling my hair out as I was watching these guys talk about OPEC and not mention any of this shit.
Go up to $100 a barrel.
All of a sudden, there's a lot of oil lying around that can get rearranged to different places.
It can't happen instantly.
So you go through some months of pain.
But basically, the Middle East is shutting itself out of the market in many ways.
You know, maybe Europe will decide.
Yeah, and we all suffer for that.
We all suffer for that.
Um, a bit of fucking is not the worst thing in the world.
And all of a sudden.
Iran doesn't give a fuck.
They got a toll booth system now.
They got a whole new way to.
They went from an oil production and export country only to now they're a fucking tollbooth country at this point.
$2 million per freighter that comes through, bro.
These guys.
On this enormous amount of natural gas, if they'd only let it out of the ground.
That was actually a very good action.
I was very impressed.
Can you pull up a clip of what the president said?
Here's the president.
Because, you know, they're talking about, well, you know, we may need to use WAN.
I mean, we may use.
And both Besant and the president have some thoughts on this.
Go ahead, Rap.
We appreciate all your time.
If you have time, I want to ask you one more question.
All right.
And, you know, we have allies now in the Middle East.
Maybe some are, we can maybe count on more than allies in other parts of the world, but they're much better allies than NATO, that I can tell you.
The UAE asking.
Bro, NATO is like Sleepy Joe for him now at this point.
Every chance he gets to fucking attack NATO, he's gonna do it.
Bro is so mad at NATO, it's hilarious, actually.
You asked for some type of.
Like, bro, you didn't consult with anyone from NATO.
You attacked with Israel.
You didn't tell anybody.
Now you want these dudes to come in and back you up.
Come on, bro, get out of here.
Bro, I hate NATO too, but we gotta be honest here.
NATO is not your fucking private army that you can mobilize.
Whenever you want to fight regime change wars unprovoked.
Okay?
It's a defensive pact, even though that's a joke, too.
But at least try to trigger Article 5.
At least try, bro.
Don't attack them first.
Like, what?
I don't know if it's a solvency.
And Article 5 chat is the article within NATO where an attack on one is considered an attack on all and brings in the entire coalition.
It's more of a liquidity problem.
And I know we did, Secretary Besant did something with Argentina that worked out.
Is there some type of swap possible?
To currency swap with the UAE to help if they need it.
And do you think there would be backlash?
Guys, smash that fucking like button, bro.
I didn't sleep all night, man.
I'm in here giving y'all that sauce.
Smash the like button.
If you're watching on Kick, give a follow.
Question.
Best political commentary channel on this bitch.
Such a wealthy country.
Is that under consideration?
It is, but it's been a good country.
It's been a good ally of ours.
And, you know, these are unusual times.
They were, more than anybody else, I mean, it was shocking because we thought that.
Thank you, sweatshirt.
And Stu Kick in Spanish Champion was up 101.
Missiles at Israel, but not every other country in the area.
And, you know, UAE got hit with 1,400 missiles.
Now, fortunately, they had the Patriots and they had a great defense and they were able to shoot down most of them.
But they didn't.
Yeah, but a lot got through.
Hit hard.
They were hit the hardest.
See, even he admits they got hit hard.
Of the group, actually.
And they're really led by incredible people.
And, yeah, I mean, I'm surprised because they are really rich.
You know, they invested a year ago.
I went there and I got them to invest $1 trillion in the United States.
Oh, oh.
The president is telling you guys what I said before.
I love it.
Fucking chef's kiss, bro.
Do you guys see now why I think this war is retarded and why, like, this is so stupid?
Bro, these dudes invested a trillion dollars in us last year.
Trump only went on, like, one real official visit internationally.
Guess where he went?
The fucking Middle East, chat.
He went to the Middle East.
On his first official visit internationally, he went to the Middle East to secure a deal with the Gulf states to support American infrastructure.
And then we start a war, they get fucked up.
They get bombed.
They can't sell oil.
They can't sell energy.
They can't sell gas.
They can't fucking, you know, import things like the way that they want.
They can't promote tourism the way they want.
Gulf Gets Pissed Off00:02:56
Real estate prices are crashing all over.
So, this is the thanks the Gulf gets for investing in us.
That is why they're so pissed off.
No cap in my raft, Shad.
I've been told y'all that Trump struck this deal, and that's why this war is retarded.
A tremendous plant in a great state.
Called Oklahoma Aluminum Plant, Smelting Plant, beautiful, incredible.
Top of the, it'll be the best anywhere in the world.
You know, they're very good for this country.
So, yeah, if I could help them, I would.
I mean, we're helping them much more with what we're doing with the war.
So that's the president.
What do you think my buddy's saying here?
Great state called Oklahoma.
Yeah, exactly.
He's just beautiful over there.
Exactly.
The dollar swap issue, I think, is a big one.
It's not because UAE is not wealthy.
As John said, I mean, when you don't have oil coming in, you have no dollars coming in.
And the UAE has a lot of dollar commitments through financial channels and other things.
And if they don't have the oil revenue coming in, plus investors kind of get cold feet.
The UAE, especially.
Also, the UAE wants to move more into AI.
They want to get out of oil, chat.
That's another important thing you guys got to realize.
Which would also take them out of the need for the United States because the United States is also competing in AI.
Through Dubai and the Dubai International Financial District, whatever it's called, they have been turning themselves into an international monetary hub, supposed to be the gateway to the global south, and funded in operating in US dollar denomination, other currencies too, but primarily US dollar denomination.
So a shortfall of dollars coming in is a big problem for the UAE, regardless of their wealth or oil status, or even the amount of reserves that they hold, because the market is saying we're a little bit nervous about what's going on over there.
We're nervous about the fact that UAE is right in the middle of the conflict.
Guys, smash the like button.
Let's get to 1,000 likes.
Without the oil revenue and dollar back.
Sitting at only 300 or 1,200 guys in here.
They could get into a situation where if the marketplace gets cold feet and starts to pull back on dollar funding, it leaves them in a situation, not unlike 2009, where the UAE was at the forefront of a second crisis that actually erupted afterwards.
So the dollar swap is about liquidity, as John pointed out.
It's not really about wealth.
It's about the fact that the conflict is really squeezing them pretty hard.
We talked about this earlier, and John, I want to come to you with this.
Is that this isn't the first time somebody left the OPEC, right?
Qatar left 19, Ecuador left 22.
Angola left 24 and then Indonesia left and came back and they left.
They suspended.
They're not with them anymore.
They left because they weren't pumping enough oil.
Ecuador just didn't have enough oil.
They're not major players, right?
So it's not like the first time.
When you think about NATO, France left once in 66 or something and then they came back.
It was like a quick thing.
It wasn't even a major thing.
NATO, no one's ever left NATO.
It's a whole different thing.
Do you think that now that Qatar and UAE are out in the last seven years, there are other players that may be leaving and following their lead?
What do you think, John?
Well, I think the whole thing has become less and less important.
As you saw, they said we want oil at $100 a barrel.
Oh, it goes $65 a barrel.
Heck said this live?
Okay.
So much for your vaunted power to do the price well.
And the swap line, the crucial thing that it's doing is the UAE pegs its currency to dollars.
So if you're going to peg your currency to dollars every now and then, people say, hey, I want my dollars, and you need that temporary liquidity to support the currency.
That's the major feature of what's going on.
I like people pegging to the dollar.
Yeah, that's not going to last forever, though.
All right, let's jump on Pete Kagsbreath.
Fiscally Responsible Budget00:08:26
I think what our troops have demonstrated to the world over the last 15 months are a reflection.
Hold on, let's see if I could get a better quality for you guys.
By years of America last policies.
Resulting in a diminished ability.
I hate to say it, but CNN always has the best production quality, bro.
Project strength.
Them in Al Jazeera.
Under the previous administration, we were focused on offshoring and outsourcing.
Even though they're trash.
Riddled with cost overruns and degraded capabilities.
Under the leadership of President Trump, our builder in chief, we are reversing this systemic decay and putting our defense industrial base back on a wartime footing.
If you ask anyone at our Pentagon, urgency informs.
Everything we do.
We didn't vote for being on war footing, Pete.
What?
We're building a military that the American people can be proud of, one that instills nothing less than unrelenting fear in our adversaries and the utmost confidence in our allies.
We fight to win in every scenario.
The $1.5 trillion.
Yeah, we could create confidence in our allies that don't want to join us in this war.
$10 trillion FY27 budget put forward by the president will build upon the historic $1 trillion FY26 top line.
And continue to reverse the four years of underinvestment and mismanagement of the Biden administration.
The $1.5 trillion budget will ensure the United States continues to maintain the world's most powerful and capable military as we grapple with a complex threat environment for lower enlisted across multiple theaters.
Not to mention, this budget also includes a historic troop pay increase, 7% for lower enlisted, and the budget eliminates all poor or failing barracks.
Quality of life for our troops is front and center in this budget as well.
By supercharging our industrial capability and transforming how the department does business, we're restoring American commercial dominance at a pace unseen in generations.
Transforming the defense industrial base from a broken, slow moving system of the past.
We have flipped the Pentagon acquisition process from a bureaucratic model to a business model.
We have flipped the Pentagon acquisition process.
We can't see a space.
Sorry, Chad.
I'll just do this one.
From a bureaucratic model to a business model.
180, decisively moving from an acquisition environment paralyzed by bureaucratic red tape into an outcomes driven organization focused on delivering the most at cost at scale for taxpayer dollars.
Over the past year, through historic multi year procurement agreements, smart business deals for things like critical munitions and capabilities, we've sent an unambiguous demand signal to industry partners to build more and build faster.
Just so you guys know, he's testifying to get an increased budget request.
That's what he's there for, chat.
And we know why for the war.
The war that we won, that was almost over.
Remember that war?
Yeah, that one.
He's trying to get a budget increase for that.
There's been a surge, a revitalization of our great.
We went from no new wars to let's get a new war and pay for it.
American factories and a massive reinvestment in the skilled American workers who serve as the industrial muscle behind our warriors.
Let me briefly provide you with some concrete high level metrics of what's been accomplished over just the past few months.
These are announced new facilities and investments to support American warfighters, and I would refer you to the screen.
The department has helped stimulate more than 250 private investment deals in 39 states, in 180 cities, and 150 companies worth more than $50 billion.
It's resulted in 280 new or expanded facilities.
More than 18 million new square feet of American manufacturing, and more than 70,000 new jobs in defense.
Military industrial complex.
This is the key part of this.
These $50 billion of investment in new plants, new assembly lines, and new factories are private investments, not taxpayer dollars.
By changing our departments, transforming our departments' business model, American companies are investing in America with their own money, their own capital.
A historic demonstration of American manufacturing and defense revitalization.
All again with their capital, not Uncle Sam's.
This has never been done before.
Okay, let's assume the U.S. taxpayer isn't paying for this war.
It's still an L, dude.
It's still an L. Regardless of whether private investors fund it or not, it's still an L.
And it's long overdue.
We are focused on international wars versus domestic wars.
From a bureaucratic model to a business model.
Anyone on the outside looking in at what's been done inside this Pentagon in the last 12 months cannot deny the fundamental transformation at speed, at scale, to innovate and meet the threats of today and tomorrow.
These investments equal great things for America, American families, and American workers, and help to ensure that our warfighters are able to defend the American dream and all American made.
Together with the help of the policy updates and appropriations passed by Congress, President Trump's War Department has begun to turn the lights back on in manufacturing towns across this country and once again forging a lethal arsenal of freedom.
Where critical supply chains are threatened, the War Department has acted decisively to inject capital, stimulate production, and prevent adversarial exploitation.
We are firing up the American economic engine and at every level of our defense industrial base.
Every policy we pursue, every budgetary item we request.
Told you guys, military industrial complex undefeated, bro.
serves to ensure the department remains laser focused.
On increasing lethality and survivability.
One like Patriot missile interceptor, guys, is like millions of dollars, like 3 million.
3 to 4 million, some insane number.
Our forces from the front lines to the factory.
And the drones that Iran shoots is like 10 to 20,000.
Like what?
This is a historic budget, as you said, Mr. Chairman.
This is a fiscally responsible budget.
This is a warfighting budget.
And speaking of warfighting, the topic of Iran I'm sure will come up today.
Which I very much welcome discussing.
I look forward to sharing the incredible successes of our military.
All right, it's QA time, guys.
Switch on over to kick.
I'm ending the YouTube stream, guys.
Come on over to kick.
Come on over to kick.
I am ending the YouTube stream here in a second.
Achieved in a matter of weeks.
President Trump, unlike other presidents, has had the courage to ensure Iran never gets a nuclear weapon, and he's ironclad in that.
We have the best negotiator in the world driving that deal.
The biggest challenge, the biggest adversary we face at this point are the reckless, feckless, and defeatist words of congressional Democrats and some Republicans.
Two months in, I remind you, two months in, this should have been three days in, a conflict.
Lest I remind you, and my generation understands how long we were in Iraq, how long we were in Afghanistan, how long we were in Vietnam, two months in, on an existential fight.
For the safety of the American people, Iran.
Bullshit.
Bullshit.
This was not an existential war whatsoever.
Iran does not have nuclear weapons.
Iran doesn't have intercontinental ballistic missiles that can hit the United States.
Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas cannot attack the United States.
Complete fucking bullshit.
Complete bullshit.
Not true at all.
All right, guys, we're going to keep cooking over on Kick, guys.