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May 7, 2025 - Health Ranger - Mike Adams
26:57
RISK ANALYSIS of Pakistan / India war that just erupted... will it go NUCLEAR?
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Time Text
So the war between Pakistan and India has begun.
So it's underway right now.
And there's...
I don't know all the details, of course.
It's going to be difficult.
You need to check the news for how many fighter jets, how many missiles, how many artillery, how many bombs, which side attacked which other side first.
We'll leave you all those details for checking the news because that's kind of minute by minute.
But make no mistake.
War has now erupted between Pakistan and India.
And in this podcast here, I'm going to try to give you my best analysis of the dynamics, the risk of escalation, who's going to try to intervene to de-escalate this, and also to reiterate the East versus West, how the teams are forming up here, and what this means for the rest of us.
Because this situation could escalate very rapidly into world war.
That goes nuclear.
And that could end us all.
So this is not something to be taken lightly.
And I haven't checked gold prices, but I would imagine gold is going to really spike over the next couple of days because of this event.
And I would imagine that oil is going to go up, too, for reasons that perhaps should be obvious.
But let's start with the geography.
So Pakistan on the west side of India.
And then Pakistan is situated between India and Iran.
Now, Pakistan also shares borders with other countries as well, but the important ones are with Iran on its west and India on its east, and then its southern coastline extends right off the coast into the Arabian Sea.
So, Pakistan has, of course, Port facilities there that are really critical to international trade for Pakistan.
And Pakistan engages in trade, a lot of trade with Iran.
Also, there's a lot of trade with India.
And there's trade with China and there's trade with Russia and other countries as well.
But Pakistan currently controls an area that has, or at least until India, shut off the water supply.
But Pakistan's food-growing area is extremely valuable, and it has been contested over the centuries, obviously.
I mean, it's changed hands, you know, many times.
It depends on how far back in history you want to go.
But this region, and I don't know the name for the region, it's kind of like the, you know how we have the Central Valley of California, which is where so much of the food is grown?
You could call this the Central Valley of Pakistan and India.
It's where a...
A very large percentage of the local food is able to be produced because of soils, climate conditions, and availability of water.
A lot of rice, obviously, is produced in that area.
It's not the breadbasket of the Middle East, it's the rice basket of the Middle East.
And rice is critical for affordable food for many, many people in that region and beyond.
Now, remember that Pakistan is about 96% Islam, whereas India is mostly Hindu, and India is allied with the West, while Pakistan tends to be allied with the East, which I will say includes Russia, China, Iran, and other such countries.
India, for its part, tries to be a universal trading partner.
India still does a lot of business with Russia.
India does business with, I mean, some business with Iran, not a lot.
Some business with Pakistan.
Quite a lot of business with the United States.
And so India tries to appease the U.S. wherever possible.
And India does pay attention to any kind of sanctions or secondary sanctions.
So India used to buy something like 300,000, maybe up to 500,000 barrels of oil per day.
Well, no, I don't think it was ever that.
It's like maybe 200,000 to 300,000.
From Iran, but that's long gone.
They don't buy that anymore because of the Western sanctions targeting Iran and its oil exports.
So India has an appetite for a lot of oil from Iran, but it currently doesn't buy that much, and nor does Turkey.
It's Turkey that used to have 300,000 to 500,000 barrels of oil per day from Iran, and Turkey has drastically reduced that as well.
So India, remember this, India is trying to appease the West, and India considers its most important trading partner to be the United States.
It also trades some with the UK and Western European nations, and some with Russia, like I said.
So India tries to be the one-stop shop for everybody in the world, and India doesn't want to actually anger any particular country, but they're the ones who started this I mean, well, let me back up.
I can't say, I mean, it's complex, but India, at least my current understanding, is they were the first to launch military strikes just today.
Now, if I'm wrong about that, I apologize.
The situation is, you know, it's sketchy.
Details are difficult to come by.
Maybe new information will come out that contradicts that, or maybe I got the wrong info, whatever.
But India definitely has a very aggressive military posture towards Pakistan.
But India says that Pakistan is harboring terrorists.
So India believes it has the self-defense justification to militarily assault Pakistan in the same way that Israel believes it has the self-defense justification to bomb Gaza because of the October 7th Hamas attack on Israel.
So there's a lot of similar parallels there.
And Gaza is largely Muslim.
Although there are plenty of Christians in Gaza as well, just as Pakistan is largely Muslim.
So India striking out against Pakistan is going to be seen by the Islamic world as an assault on our brothers, so to speak.
And I understand there are divisions in Islam, and they're not all the same, you know, Shia and Sunni and all that, but they're all Islam.
Versus India, which is...
Mostly not Islam.
Okay?
So there are overtones of a religious war here, not just an economic war, not just a geopolitical war or an energy war.
All right?
So it's really critical that we understand the landscape and that we understand the geography.
For example, the southern peninsula or the southern tip of India extends farther south into the or closer to the Arabian Sea.
than does Pakistan.
And that gives India some more territorial control over the sea lanes that might come close to the southern tip of India, for example.
So India has more of an ability to project power into the Arabian Sea and then on its east coast into the Indian Ocean.
Now, let's look at the allies here.
So Pakistan is going to tend to be allied with Iran, like I mentioned.
And Iran has just signed a mutual...
I can't quite call it a defense treaty.
It's not that.
It's something else.
It's a cooperation agreement of some kind with Russia.
I regret...
I don't know the full details of it.
It does not require Russia to come to the aid of Iran, but I believe it provides Iran with a lot of Russian military assistance in the form of, for example, anti-air defense systems, or...
Targeting systems or possibly satellite systems, things that Iran can use in time of war.
So if Iran is now essentially Pakistan's ally, and maybe that's too strong of a word because they haven't always got along either, but compared to Iran's relationship with Israel or with America, Pakistan would be considered pretty close.
The question is, will Iran get involved in this because of Iran's proximity to Pakistan, sharing a common border, and its closeness to India and the fact that they share southern coastal access to the Arabian Sea?
And the answer to that is unknown.
But if Iran decides to get involved...
Or if this war begins to escalate, if the U.S. gets involved, for example, and starts striking Pakistan, then, you know, on behalf of India, then Russia might decide or Iran might decide, well, okay, we'll get involved then and we'll strike India or we'll strike the United States.
And it's not difficult to see how this could escalate out of control pretty quickly.
But there's another scenario that's potentially far more worrisome.
And it's based on the fact that both India and Pakistan have over 100 nuclear weapons each.
Now, I'm not familiar with exactly what form those weapons are in.
I don't know if they can be mounted on missiles.
I'm sure some of them can.
Maybe all of them.
But I don't know the range of those missiles and I don't know the yields of those nuclear weapons.
My educated guess is that a lot of those nuclear weapons are relatively low-yield weapons that may be below one kiloton.
And some of them may be in the form, actually, of long-range artillery.
So, to get an idea of the yield of these weapons, remember that Hiroshima, the atomic bomb that the U.S. dropped on Hiroshima, was estimated to be at about 15 or 16 kilotons yield.
Effective yield.
That has nothing to do with how much the weapon weighed.
That's how much energy was released.
So when we say 15 kilotons yield, what that means is 15 kilotons of TNT equivalent.
Okay?
Just to remind you of how those ratings came to be.
I mean, it's a bizarre rating system.
They should just describe it like, you know...
Gigajoules or something, but no, it's how many tons of TNT.
Okay.
Well, the Hiroshima explosion did a tremendous amount of damage at 15 kilotons.
A low-yield weapon might be 0.8 kilotons, or you could say 800 tons of TNT equivalent, or even 500 tons of TNT equivalent.
That's still a big boom.
Okay, that's a massive boom.
It's not small, but it's not a megaton.
It's not a civilization-ending nuke.
And the thing about these small-yield nukes is that because they don't end civilization, there's a tendency in military circles to believe that they can use low-yield nukes and everything's going to be fine because it doesn't destroy the world.
And there's truth to that in the sense that If India and Pakistan were to start launching low-yield nuclear weapons at each other, let's pray to God that that doesn't happen.
But if they did, it wouldn't kill us in America.
It wouldn't kill people in Russia.
It wouldn't kill people in China.
It wouldn't even kill people in Iran.
It would cause a radiation fallout cloud to blow in whichever way the winds go.
I don't even know the predominant.
Wind directions there.
So I don't know where that ends up.
Maybe it depends on the day or the season.
Not hard to imagine that wind blows northeast is based on the geography there.
And that ends up pushing it closer to China, right?
So China has an interest in this thing not going nuclear.
Because they don't want...
They're rural southwestern China areas to be inundated with Mad Max fallout, obviously, because that's that's bad.
So my guess is that China is right now asserting pressure.
And probably, I believe that Iran's foreign minister is already involved in talking with Pakistan and possibly the U.S. Might be talking with India.
But there will be international efforts to calm this thing down.
The question is, will the local parties listen to that?
And do they have their own incentives to escalate the war?
There may very well be very strong domestic reasons within India, in particular, to have a giant war with Pakistan.
For one thing, it allows the Indian government To exert a lot more control, coercion over its own population.
Anytime there's a war, the governments tend to say, well, we're going to suspend elections, or we're going to suspend freedom of the press, or we're going to levy new taxes, or we're going to ban activities, or whatever.
Even sometimes it can be exports, or we're going to ban the removal of gold from the country.
Things like that.
These are the kinds of things that happen throughout history in times of war.
And there may be domestic political reasons inside India for that.
Now, India is a very large country.
I mean, in terms of total square kilometers, it's large.
It's also large in population.
It's, I believe, over 1.3 billion people.
And India is, frankly, it's barely a cohesive country.
It's mostly...
Like a couple dozen countries sort of held together by bailing wire, if I could say that.
I don't mean any disrespect to India.
I'm just saying that the nation of India has a very large number of regional, culturally segmented regions that have a lot of autonomy and that the central government of India Typically has difficulty exerting sufficient pressure over those local regions.
Part of it's just because of the rural nature of India, you know, difficulty of transportation, difficulty of access to resources like water in certain areas, etc.
But a war would allow the centralized government of India to be able to demand and exert more control over these more decentralized regions of India.
There may be strong political advantages or motivations to achieve that for some reason.
I don't follow domestic India politics, so I don't know.
But I do know that India is a country that is largely not that educated.
Even there's still widespread illiteracy in India.
India suffers from food scarcity and from Impoverishment, frankly.
There's just tremendous poverty across India.
So India is not a wealthy country for the most part, although there are certain individuals, obviously.
So we may be in for nuclear war that we have not seen since World War II.
And if that happens, then you're going to see oil spike.
You're going to see gold spike.
And if Iran gets involved, then you have to start thinking about the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil exports and liquid natural gas exports to Western Europe.
On top of that, the EU just announced they're going to block off all Russian gas exports within the next couple of years to have zero gas from Russia.
So the EU is committing energy suicide.
And if things heat up with Iran, that's just going to exacerbate that.
And remember that Netanyahu promised a couple of days ago that Israel is going to bomb Iran.
Multiple nuke scenarios, actually, at the same time.
India and Pakistan might end up nuking each other, and then Israel might nuke Iran's oil fields, or perhaps try to get at its underground missile bases.
And then Iran, which I believe has nuclear weapons, at least that's my belief, I don't think that's acknowledged publicly, but they may end up just nuking Israel.
And then, you know, the question is, well, who's America going to nuke?
And who's Russia going to nuke?
And, you know, then we have a scenario where things get Mad Max very quickly.
So what's your best defense strategy or readiness strategy against all of this?
Well, the good news is it's the same that we've been talking about for quite some time.
So financially, it's gold and silver, which are already spiking.
In terms of energy, have a solar generator, but also stockpile extra diesel fuel if you can, if you're able to store it safely, and if you have diesel engines or diesel vehicles, etc.
The other thing is be ready for more supply chain disruptions.
Not that India makes up a huge part of exports to the United States, but if nukes start flying in the Middle East, that's going to affect ports and ships.
In sea lanes, it's going to introduce delays and probably destruction of some of these things, and that will affect the supply chain.
And then finally, also be ready for some level of radiation fallout.
Now, depending on the yield of the nukes used, that may not be severe.
It may not even be enough to worry about in America, or if it goes really wild weasel, You might want to have iodine.
You might want to be able to protect your home against a fallout event.
And I just did an interview with Kristen Megan about that very point, how to shelter in place.
And if you learn how to shelter in place, then you're going to be safer against all these scenarios.
So check out my interview with Kristen Megan on that and be prepared for all of this.
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Check it out, and thank you for listening.
Take care.
Practice diplomacy.
There's no point in listening.
We don't want to negotiate.
We warn them it's too late.
We're not interested in compromise.
If you disagree, we'll vaporize your town.
Ask around, cause there's no way you'll survive.
Bombs away.
This is how we make them pay.
Bombs away.
We can force them to obey.
Bombs away.
We're the ones that God has blessed.
Bombs away.
And then we'll starve the rest.
It's bombs away.
Bombs away.
Bombs away.
We're the ones that are alive.
We're not looking for common ground Or give and take or ups and downs We're not hoping for peace today It takes a war to...
them pay anyone who might reject
Our steep demands, our dollar debt That's who we are It's
bombs away It's not about who's wrong or right Who beats the rest and wins the fight We just want a bomber in Somalia Or the Sudan Yemen lands We're
justified cause God is on our side Bombs away, bombs away This is how we make them pay Bombs
away, bombs away They can force them to obey Bombs away, bombs away We're the ones that God has blessed Bombs away, bombs away And then we'll starve the rest It's Bombs away, Bombs away,
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